Search results for: time series prediction

Authors: Rusudan Kinkladze, Guguli Kurashvili, Ketevan Chitaladze

Abstract:

Foreign direct investment is a driving force in the development of the interdependent national economies, and the study and analysis of investments is an urgent problem. It is particularly important for transitional economies, such as Georgia, and the study and analysis of investments is an urgent problem. Consequently, the goal of the research is the study and analysis of direct foreign investments in Georgia, and identification and forecasting of modern trends, and covers the period of 2006-2015. The study uses the methods of statistical observation, grouping and analysis, the methods of analytical indicators of time series, trend identification and the predicted values are calculated, as well as various literary and Internet sources relevant to the research. The findings showed that modern investment policy In Georgia is favorable for domestic as well as foreign investors. Georgia is still a net importer of investments. In 2015, the top 10 investing countries was led by Azerbaijan, United Kingdom and Netherlands, and the largest share of FDIs were allocated in the transport and communication sector; the financial sector was the second, followed by the health and social work sector, and the same trend will continue in the future. 

Keywords: foreign direct investments, methods, statistics, analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 336

Authors: Nady Farag Faragalla Hanna

Abstract:

In the car dealership industry in Japan, the sales specialist is a key factor in the success of the company. I hypothesize that when a company understands the characteristics of sales professionals in its industry, it is easier to recruit and train salespeople effectively. Lean human resources management ensures the economic success and performance of companies, especially small and medium-sized companies.The purpose of the article is to determine the characteristics of sales specialists for small and medium-sized car dealerships using the chi-square test and the proximate variable model. Accordingly, the results show that career change experience, learning ability and product knowledge are important, while university education, career building through internal transfer, leadership experience and people development are not important for becoming a sales professional. I also show that the characteristics of sales specialists are perseverance, humility, improvisation and passion for business.

Keywords: electronics engineering, marketing, sales, E-commerce digitalization, interactive systems, sales process ARIMA models, sales demand forecasting, time series, R codetraits of sales professionals, variable precision rough sets theory, sales professional, sales professionals

Procedia PDF Downloads 56

Authors: Faiqa Jalal

Abstract:

The purpose of the following research paper is to discuss the differentiating meanings of culture and how popular culture has maintained a great impact on intercultural and international behavior. The following discussion leads to the notion of communicating cultural impact on behavior through advertising and sub-cultural theory in advertising. Although towards the end of the research, the complexities that develop through the above discussion, lead to the solution that ‘advertising gives meaning to the otherwise meaningless and identical objects through linking them to our basic needs’. In today’s fast paced digital world, it is difficult to define culture, literally, since its meaning tends to shift through series of different perceptions such as ‘how’ and ‘why’ it should be used. This notion can be taken towards another notion of popular culture. It is dependent on ‘attitudes, ideas, images, perspectives and other phenomena within the mainstream of a given culture’. Since popular culture is influenced by mass media, it has a way of influencing an individual’s attitude towards certain topics. For example, tattoos are a form of human decorations, that have historic significance, and a huge spectrum of meanings. Advertising is one aspect of marketing that has evolved from the time when it was ‘production oriented’, up till the time it started using different mediums to make its impact more effective. However, this impact has confused us between our needs and desires. The focus in this paper is ‘we consume to acquire a sense of social identity and status, not just for the sake of consumption’. Every culture owns different expressions, which are then used by advertisers to create its impact on the behavior of people sub-culturally and globally, as culture grows through social interaction. Advertisers furthermore play a smart role in highlighting quality of life ranging from ‘survival to well-being’. Hence, this research paper concludes by highlighting that culture is considered as a ‘basic root’ of any community that also provides solution to certain problems; however, advertisers play their part in manipulating society’s literacy and beliefs by rationalizing how relevant certain products/brands are to their beliefs.

Keywords: mass media, popular culture, production oriented, sub-culture

Procedia PDF Downloads 230

Authors: Aïda C. Terblanché-Greeff

Abstract:

Afro-polychronism is a unique amalgamated cultural value of social self-construal and time orientation. As such, the construct Afro-polychronism is conceptually analysed by focusing on the aspects of Ubuntu as collectivism and African time as polychronism. It is argued that these cultural values have a reciprocal and thus inseparable relationship. As it is general practice to measure cultural values empirically, the author conducted empirically engaged philosophy and aimed to develop a scale to measure Afro-polychronism based on its two dimensions of Ubuntu as social self-construal and African time as time orientation. From the scale’s psychometric properties, it was determined that the scale was, in fact, not reliable and valid. It was found that the correlation between the Ubuntu dimension and the African time is moderate (albeit statistically significant). In conclusion, the author abduced why this cultural value cannot be empirically measured based on its theoretical definition and indicated which different path would be more promising.

Keywords: African time, Afro-polychronism, empirically engaged African philosophy, Ubuntu

Procedia PDF Downloads 152

Authors: Pascale Brasseur, Binu Gurung, Nicholas Halfpenny, James Eaton

Abstract:

Development of minimally invasive treatments in recent years provides a potential alternative to invasive surgical interventions which are of limited value to patients with spinal metastases due to short life expectancy. A systematic review was conducted to explore the efficacy and safety of radiofrequency ablation (RFA), a minimally invasive treatment in patients with spinal metastases. EMBASE, Medline and CENTRAL were searched from database inception to March 2017 for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and non-randomised studies. Conference proceedings for ASCO and ESMO published in 2015 and 2016 were also searched. Fourteen studies were included: three prospective interventional studies, four prospective case series and seven retrospective case series. No RCTs or studies comparing RFA with another treatment were identified. RFA was followed by cement augmentation in all patients in seven studies and some patients (40-96%) in the remaining seven studies. Efficacy was assessed as pain relief in 13/14 studies with the use of a numerical rating scale (NRS) or a visual analogue scale (VAS) at various time points. Ten of the 13 studies reported a significant decrease in pain outcome, post-RFA compared to baseline. NRS scores improved significantly at 1 week (5.9 to 3.5, p < 0.0001; 8 to 4.3, p < 0.02 and 8 to 3.9, p < 0.0001) and this improvement was maintained at 1 month post-RFA compared to baseline (5.9 to 2.6, p < 0.0001; 8 to 2.9, p < 0.0003; 8 to 2.9, p < 0.0001). Similarly, VAS scores decreased significantly at 1 week (7.5 to 2.7, p=0.00005; 7.51 to 1.73, p < 0.0001; 7.82 to 2.82, p < 0.001) and this pattern was maintained at 1 month post-RFA compared to baseline (7.51 to 2.25, p < 0.0001; 7.82 to 3.3; p < 0.001). A significant pain relief was achieved regardless of whether patients had cement augmentation in two studies assessing the impact of RFA with or without cement augmentation on VAS pain scores. In these two studies, a significant decrease in pain scores was reported for patients receiving RFA alone and RFA+cement at 1 week (4.3 to 1.7. p=0.0004 and 6.6 to 1.7, p=0.003 respectively) and 15-36 months (7.9 to 4, p=0.008 and 7.6 to 3.5, p=0.005 respectively) after therapy. Few minor complications were reported and these included neural damage, radicular pain, vertebroplasty leakage and lower limb pain/numbness. In conclusion, the efficacy and safety of RFA were consistently positive between prospective and retrospective studies with reductions in pain and few procedural complications. However, the lack of control groups in the identified studies indicates the possibility of selection bias inherent in single arm studies. Controlled trials exploring efficacy and safety of RFA in patients with spinal metastases are warranted to provide robust evidence. The identified studies provide an initial foundation for such future trials.

Keywords: pain relief, radiofrequency ablation, spinal metastases, systematic review

Procedia PDF Downloads 175

Authors: Asif Husain, Shah Alam Khan

Abstract:

Coumarins and flavones are oxygen containing heterocyclic compounds which are present in various biologically active compounds. Both the heterocyclic rings are associated with diverse biological actions, therefore considered as an important scaffold for the design of molecules of pharmaceutical interest. Aim: To synthesize and evaluate the in vivo anti-inflammatory activity of few coumrain and flavone derivatives containing 1,4 dioxane ring system. Materials and methods: Coumarin derivatives (3a-d) were synthesized by reacting 7,8 dihydroxy coumarin (2a) and its 4-methyl derivative (2b) with epichlorohydrin/ethylene dibromide. The flavone derivatives (10a-d) were prepared by using quercetin and 3,4 dihydroxy flavones. Compounds of both the series were also evaluated for their anti-inflammatory, analgesic activity and ulcerogenicity in animal models by reported methods. Results and Discussion: The structures of all newly synthesized compounds were confirmed with the help of IR, 1H NMR, 13C NMR and Mass spectral studies. Elemental analyses data for each element analyzed (C, H, N) was found to be within acceptable range of ±0.4 %. Flavone derivatives, but in particular quercetin containing 1,4 dioxane ring system (10d) showed better anti-inflammatory and analgesic activity along with reduced gastrointestinal toxicity as compared to other synthesized compounds. The results of anti-inflammatory and analgesic activities of both the series are comparable with the positive control, diclofenac. Conclusion: Compound 10d, a quercetin derivative, emerged as a lead molecule which exhibited potent anti-inflammatory and analgesic activity with significant reduced gastric toxicity.

Keywords: analgesic, anti-inflammatory, 1, 4 dioxane, coumarin, flavone

Procedia PDF Downloads 332

Authors: Aid Abdelkrim

Abstract:

A method of fatigue damage accumulation based upon application of energy parameters of the fatigue process is proposed in the paper. Using this model is simple, it has no parameter to be determined, it requires only the knowledge of the curve W–N (W: strain energy density N: number of cycles at failure) determined from the experimental Wöhler curve. To examine the performance of nonlinear models proposed in the estimation of fatigue damage and fatigue life of components under random loading, a batch of specimens made of 6082 T 6 aluminium alloy has been studied and some of the results are reported in the present paper. The paper describes an algorithm and suggests a fatigue cumulative damage model, especially when random loading is considered. This work contains the results of uni-axial random load fatigue tests with different mean and amplitude values performed on 6082T6 aluminium alloy specimens. The proposed model has been formulated to take into account the damage evolution at different load levels and it allows the effect of the loading sequence to be included by means of a recurrence formula derived for multilevel loading, considering complex load sequences. It is concluded that a ‘damaged stress interaction damage rule’ proposed here allows a better fatigue damage prediction than the widely used Palmgren–Miner rule, and a formula derived in random fatigue could be used to predict the fatigue damage and fatigue lifetime very easily. The results obtained by the model are compared with the experimental results and those calculated by the most fatigue damage model used in fatigue (Miner’s model). The comparison shows that the proposed model, presents a good estimation of the experimental results. Moreover, the error is minimized in comparison to the Miner’s model.

Keywords: damage accumulation, energy model, damage indicator, variable loading, random loading

Procedia PDF Downloads 397

Authors: Tao Song, Hao Cheng, Guangfeng Tian, Chuang Xu

Abstract:

An autonomous emergency braking system is an advanced driving assistance system that enables vehicle collision avoidance and pedestrian collision avoidance to improve vehicle safety. At present, because the pedestrian target is small, and the mobility is large, the pedestrian AEB system is faced with more technical difficulties and higher functional requirements. In this paper, a method of pedestrian target selection based on a variable width funnel is proposed. Based on the current position and predicted position of pedestrians, the relative position of vehicle and pedestrian at the time of collision is calculated, and different braking strategies are adopted according to the hazard level of pedestrian collisions. In the CNCAP standard operating conditions, comparing the method of considering only the current position of pedestrians and the method of considering pedestrian prediction position, as well as the method based on fixed width funnel and variable width funnel, the results show that, based on variable width funnel, the choice of pedestrian target will be more accurate and the opportunity of the intervention of AEB system will be more reasonable by considering the predicted position of the pedestrian target and vehicle's lateral motion.

Keywords: automatic emergency braking system, pedestrian target selection, TTC, variable width funnel

Procedia PDF Downloads 160

Authors: A. Shebani, C. Pislaru

Abstract:

Wear of materials is an everyday experience and has been observed and studied for long time. The prediction of wear is a fundamental problem in the industrial field, mainly correlated to the planning of maintenance interventions and economy. Pin-on-disc test is the most common test which is used to study the wear behaviour. In this paper, the pin-on-disc (AEROTECH UNIDEX 11) is used for the investigation of the effects of normal load and hardness of material on the wear under dry and sliding conditions. In the pin-on-disc rig, two specimens were used; one, a pin which is made of steel with a tip, is positioned perpendicular to the disc, where the disc is made of aluminium. The pin wear and disc wear were measured by using the following instruments: The Talysurf instrument, a digital microscope, and the alicona instrument; where the Talysurf profilometer was used to measure the pin/disc wear scar depth, and the alicona was used to measure the volume loss for pin and disc. After that, the Archard model, American Society for Testing and Materials model (ASTM), and neural network model were used for pin/disc wear modelling and the simulation results are implemented by using the Matlab program. This paper focuses on how the alicona can be considered as a powerful tool for wear measurements and how the neural network is an effective algorithm for wear estimation.

Keywords: wear modelling, Archard Model, ASTM Model, Neural Networks Model, Pin-on-disc Test, Talysurf, digital microscope, Alicona

Procedia PDF Downloads 464

Authors: Wiwat Kittinaraporn, Napat Harnpornchai, Sutja Boonyachut

Abstract:

This paper deals with the application of a novel neural network technique, so-called Support Vector Machine (SVM). The objective of this study is to explore the variable and parameter of forecasting factors in the construction industry to build up forecasting model for construction quantity in Thailand. The scope of the research is to study the non-residential construction quantity in Thailand. There are 44 sets of yearly data available, ranging from 1965 to 2009. The correlation between economic indicators and construction demand with the lag of one year was developed by Apichat Buakla. The selected variables are used to develop SVM models to forecast the non-residential construction quantity in Thailand. The parameters are selected by using ten-fold cross-validation method. The results are indicated in term of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The MAPE value for the non-residential construction quantity predicted by Epsilon-SVR in corporation with Radial Basis Function (RBF) of kernel function type is 5.90. Analysis of the experimental results show that the support vector machine modelling technique can be applied to forecast construction quantity time series which is useful for decision planning and management purpose.

Keywords: forecasting, non-residential, construction, support vector machines

Procedia PDF Downloads 439

Authors: Alireza Fallahfard, Ludwig Vinches, Stephane Halle

Abstract:

In the workplace, the exposure level of airborne contaminants should be evaluated due to health and safety issues. It can be done by numerical models or experimental measurements, but the numerical approach can be useful when it is challenging to perform experiments. One of the simplest models is the well-mixed room (WMR) model, which has shown its usefulness to predict inhalation exposure in many situations. However, since the WMR is limited to gases and vapors, it cannot be used to predict exposure to aerosols. The main objective is to modify the WMR model to expand its application to exposure scenarios involving aerosols. To reach this objective, the standard WMR model has been modified to consider the deposition of particles by gravitational settling and Brownian and turbulent deposition. Three deposition models were implemented in the model. The time-dependent concentrations of airborne particles predicted by the model were compared to experimental results conducted in a 0.512 m3 chamber. Polystyrene particles of 1, 2, and 3 µm in aerodynamic diameter were generated with a nebulizer under two air changes per hour (ACH). The well-mixed condition and chamber ACH were determined by the tracer gas decay method. The mean friction velocity on the chamber surfaces as one of the input variables for the deposition models was determined by computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation. For the experimental procedure, the particles were generated until reaching the steady-state condition (emission period). Then generation stopped, and concentration measurements continued until reaching the background concentration (decay period). The results of the tracer gas decay tests revealed that the ACHs of the chamber were: 1.4 and 3.0, and the well-mixed condition was achieved. The CFD results showed the average mean friction velocity and their standard deviations for the lowest and highest ACH were (8.87 ± 0.36) ×10-2 m/s and (8.88 ± 0.38) ×10-2 m/s, respectively. The numerical results indicated the difference between the predicted deposition rates by the three deposition models was less than 2%. The experimental and numerical aerosol concentrations were compared in the emission period and decay period. In both periods, the prediction accuracy of the modified model improved in comparison with the classic WMR model. However, there is still a difference between the actual value and the predicted value. In the emission period, the modified WMR results closely follow the experimental data. However, the model significantly overestimates the experimental results during the decay period. This finding is mainly due to an underestimation of the deposition rate in the model and uncertainty related to measurement devices and particle size distribution. Comparing the experimental and numerical deposition rates revealed that the actual particle deposition rate is significant, but the deposition mechanisms considered in the model were ten times lower than the experimental value. Thus, particle deposition was significant and will affect the airborne concentration in occupational settings, and it should be considered in the airborne exposure prediction model. The role of other removal mechanisms should be investigated.

Keywords: aerosol, CFD, exposure assessment, occupational settings, well-mixed room model, zonal model

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: Ashika Govender

Abstract:

This study seeks to determine whether Okun’s Law is valid for the South African economy, using time series data for the period 2004 to 2014. The data were accessed from the South African Reserve Bank and Stats SA. The stationarity of the variables was analysed by applying unit root tests via the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF), the Phillips-Perron (PP) test, and the Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin test (KPSS) test. The study used an ordinary least square (OLS) model in analysing the dynamic version of Okun’s law. The Error Correction Model (ECM) was used to analyse the short-run impact of GDP growth on unemployment, as well as the speed of adjustment. The results indicate a short run and long run relationship between unemployment rate and GDP growth rate in period 2004q1-2014q4, suggesting that Okun’s law is valid for the South African economy. With a 1 percent increase in GDP, unemployment can decrease by 0.13 percent, ceteris paribus. The research culminates in important policy recommendations, highlighting the relationship between unemployment and economic growth in the spirit of the National Development Plan.

Keywords: unemployment, economic growth, Okun's law, South Africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 276

Authors: Usman Yakubu, Muktar Haruna

Abstract:

The paper examines the impact of the audit committee on the earning quality of the listed consumer goods sector in Nigeria. The study used data collected from annual reports and accounts of the 13 sampled companies for the periods 2007 to 2018. Data were analyzed by means of descriptive statistics to provide summary statistics for the variables; also, correlation analysis was carried out using the Pearson correlation technique for the correlation between the dependent and independent variables. Regression was employed using the Generalized Least Square technique since the data has both time series and cross sectional attributes (panel data). It was found out that the audit committee had a positive and significant influence on the earning quality in the listed consumer goods companies in Nigeria. Thus, the study recommends that competency and personal integrity should be the worthwhile attributes to be considered while constituting the committee; this could enhance the quality of accounting information. In addition to that majority of the committee members should be independent directors in order to allow a high level of independency to be exercised.

Keywords: earning quality, corporate governance, audit committee, financial reporting

Procedia PDF Downloads 182

Authors: Mustafa Salman, Nurcan Cetinkaya, Zehra Selcuk, Bugra Genc

Abstract:

The objectives of the present study were to estimate the microbial-N flow to the small intestine and to predict the digestible organic matter intake (DOMI) in grazing Karayaka sheep based on urinary excretion of purine derivatives (xanthine, hypoxanthine, uric acid, and allantoin) by the use of spot urine sampling under field conditions. In the trial, 10 Karayaka sheep from 2 to 3 years of age were used. The animals were grazed in a pasture for ten months and fed with concentrate and vetch plus oat hay for the other two months (January and February) indoors. Highly significant linear and cubic relationships (P<0.001) were found among months for purine derivatives index, purine derivatives excretion, purine derivatives absorption, microbial-N and DOMI. Through urine sampling and the determination of levels of excreted urinary PD and Purine Derivatives / Creatinine ratio (PDC index), microbial-N values were estimated and they indicated that the protein nutrition of the sheep was insufficient. In conclusion, the prediction of protein nutrition of sheep under the field conditions may be possible with the use of spot urine sampling, urinary excreted PD and PDC index. The mean purine derivative levels in spot urine samples from sheep were highest in June, July and October. Protein nutrition of pastured sheep may be affected by weather changes, including rainfall. Spot urine sampling may useful in modeling the feed consumption of pasturing sheep. However, further studies are required under different field conditions with different breeds of sheep to develop spot urine sampling as a model.

Keywords: Karayaka sheep, spot sampling, urinary purine derivatives, PDC index, microbial-N, feed intake

Procedia PDF Downloads 531

Authors: Salman Ali Nisar, Suzuki Koji

Abstract:

In this paper we developed a new algorithm to convert the project scheduling time into calendar date in order to handle non-interruptible activities not to be split by non-working days (such as weekend and holidays). In a construction project some activities might require not to be interrupted even on non-working days, or to be finished on the end day of business days. For example, concrete placing work might be required to be completed by the end day of weekdays i.e. Friday, and curing in the weekend. This research provides an algorithm that imposes time constraint for start and finish times of non-interruptible activities. The algorithm converts working days, which is obtained by Critical Path Method (CPM), to calendar date with consideration of the start date of a project. After determining the interruption by non-working days, the start time of a certain activity should be postponed, if there is enough total float value. Otherwise, the duration is shortened by hiring additional resources capacity or/and using overtime work execution. Then, time constraints are imposed to start time and finish time of the activity. The algorithm is developed in Excel Spreadsheet for microcomputer and therefore we can easily get a feasible, calendared construction schedule for such a construction project with some non-interruptible activities.

Keywords: project management, scheduling, critical path method, time constraint, non-interruptible tasks

Procedia PDF Downloads 505

Authors: Mulak Moses Yokdi

Abstract:

Correct use of leisure time has suffered neglect in our society and the people ignorantly think that the trend does not matter. The researcher felt concerned about the issue and went on to find out why using FCE, Pankshin workers as a case study. Four hypotheses were used, considering such variables as leadership, traditional activities, stress due to work pressure and time constraint. The participants selected for the study were one hundred and ten members of FCE, Pankshin staff. A self-developed questionnaire was the instrument used. Chi-square (x2) was employed to test the hypotheses at P = 0.005; df = 3. The statistics of percentages was also used to describe the situation as implicated by the data. The results showed that all hypotheses were significant (P = 0.05). It was concluded that the four variables were impediments to effective participation in physically oriented leisure time activities among the FCE, Staff. Based on the findings, it was recommended that the FCE should get good leadership, create good awareness for people to understand why they should be effectively involved in physically oriented leisure time activities.

Keywords: barriers, effective participation, leisure time, physically oriented, work pressure, time constraint

Procedia PDF Downloads 371

Authors: Hamidoddin Yousife

Abstract:

Drilling optimization requires a prediction of drilling rate of penetration (ROP) since it provides a significant reduction in drilling costs. There are several factors that can have an impact on the ROP, both controllable and uncontrollable. Numerous drilling penetration rate models have been considered based on drilling parameters. This papers considered the effect of proper drilling parameter selection such as bit, Mud Type, applied weight on bit (WOB), Revolution per minutes (RPM), and flow rate on drilling optimization and drilling cost reduction. A predicted analysis is used in real-time drilling performance to determine the optimal drilling operation. As a result of these modeling studies, the real data collected from three directional wells at Azadegan oil fields, Iran, was verified and adjusted to determine the drillability of a specific formation. Simulation results and actual drilling results show significant improvements in inaccuracy. Once simulations had been validated, optimum drilling parameters and equipment specifications were determined by varying weight on bit (WOB), rotary speed (RPM), hydraulics (hydraulic pressure), and bit specification for each well until the highest drilling rate was achieved. To evaluate the potential operational and economic benefits of optimizing results, a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the data was performed.

Keywords: drlling, cost, optimization, parameters

Procedia PDF Downloads 173

Authors: Alebachew Halefom, Navsal Kumar, Arunava Poddar

Abstract:

The purpose of this work is to specify the parameter values, the base flow index (BFI), and to rank the methods that should be used for base flow separation. Three different digital graphical approaches are chosen and used in this study for the purpose of comparison. The daily time series discharge data were collected from the site for a period of 30 years (1986 up to 2015) and were used to evaluate the algorithms. In order to separate the base flow and the surface runoff, daily recorded streamflow (m³/s) data were used to calibrate procedures and get parameter values for the basin. Additionally, the performance of the model was assessed by the use of the standard error (SE), the coefficient of determination (R²), and the flow duration curve (FDC) and baseflow indexes. The findings indicate that, in general, each strategy can be used worldwide to differentiate base flow; however, the Sliding Interval Method (SIM) performs significantly better than the other two techniques in this basin. The average base flow index was calculated to be 0.72 using the local minimum method, 0.76 using the fixed interval method, and 0.78 using the sliding interval method, respectively.

Keywords: baseflow index, digital graphical methods, streamflow, Emba Madre Watershed

Procedia PDF Downloads 87

Authors: Eleni Giouli

Abstract:

Distance learning provides a flexible approach to education, enabling busy learners to complete their coursework at their own pace, on their own schedule, and from a convenient location. This flexibility combined with a series of other issues; make the benefits of lifelong distance learning numerous. The purpose of the paper is to investigate whether distance education can contribute to the improvement of adult skills in Greece, highlighting in this way the necessity of the lifelong distance learning. To investigate this goal, a questionnaire is constructed and analyzed based on responses from 3,016 attendees of lifelong distance learning programs in the e-learning of the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens in Greece. In order to do so, a series of relationships is examined including the effects of a) the gender, b) the previous educational level, c) the current employment status, and d) the method used in the distance learning program, on the development of new general, technical, administrative, social, cultural, entrepreneurial and green skills. The basic conclusions that emerge after using a binary logistic framework are that the following factors are critical in order to develop new skills: the gender, the education level and the educational method used in the lifelong distance learning program. The skills more significantly affected by those factors are the acquiring new skills in general, as well as acquiring general, language and cultural, entrepreneurial and green skills, while for technical and social skills only gender and educational method play a crucial role. Moreover, routine skills and social skills are not affected by the four factors included in the analysis.

Keywords: adult skills, distance learning, education, lifelong learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: Muhsin Kizhisseri, Jorg Schluter, Saleh Gharie

Abstract:

Atherosclerosis is the main reason of stroke, which is one of the deadliest diseases in the world. The carotid artery in the brain is the prominent location for atherosclerotic progression, which hinders the blood flow into the brain. The inclusion of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) into the diagnosis cycle to understand the hemodynamics of the patient-specific carotid artery can give insights into stroke prediction. Realistic outlet boundary conditions are an inevitable part of the numerical simulations, which is one of the major factors in determining the accuracy of the CFD results. The Windkessel model-based outlet boundary conditions can give more realistic characteristics of the distal vascular branches of the carotid artery, such as the resistance to the blood flow and compliance of the distal arterial walls. This study aims to find the most influential distal branches of the carotid artery by using the Windkessel model parameters in the outlet boundary conditions. The parametric study approach to Windkessel model parameters can include the geometrical features of the distal branches, such as radius and length. The incorporation of the variations of the geometrical features of the major distal branches such as the middle cerebral artery, anterior cerebral artery, and ophthalmic artery through the Windkessel model can aid in identifying the most influential distal branch in the carotid artery. The results from this study can help physicians and stroke neurologists to have a more detailed and accurate judgment of the patient's condition.

Keywords: stroke, carotid artery, computational fluid dynamics, patient-specific, Windkessel model, distal vascular branches

Procedia PDF Downloads 221

Authors: Pedro Miguel Cardoso Carneiro, Ricardo André Nunes Borges, João Pedro Soares Loureiro, Hermínio Maio Graça Fernandes

Abstract:

Wind energy has been exponentially growing over the last years and will allow countries to progress regarding the decarbonization objective. In parallel, the maintenance activities have also been increasing in consequence of ageing and deterioration of the wind farms. The time available for wind blade maintenance is given by the weather window that is based upon weather conditions. Most of the wind blade repair and maintenance activities require a narrow window of temperature and humidity. Due to this limitation, the current weather windows result only on approximately 35% days/year are used for maintenance, that takes place mostly during summertime. This limitation creates large economic losses in the energy production of the wind towers, since they can be inoperative or with the energy production output reduced for days or weeks due to existing damages. Another important aspect is that the maintenance costs are higher due to the high standby time and seasonality imposed on the technicians. To reduce the relevant maintenance costs of blades and energy loses some technological developments were carried out to significantly improve this reality. The focus of this activity was to develop a series of key developments to have in the near future a suspended access equipment that can operate in harsh conditions, wind rain, cold/hot environment. To this end we have identified key areas that need to be revised and require new solutions to be found; a habitat system, multi-configurable roof and floor, roof and floor interface to blade, secondary attachment solutions to the blade and to the tower. On this paper we will describe the advances produced during a national R&D project made in partnership with an end-user (Onrope) and a test center (ISQ).

Keywords: wind turbine maintenance, cost reduction, technological innovations, wind turbine blade

Procedia PDF Downloads 98

Authors: Abdel-Aziz M. Mohamed

Abstract:

This research proposes a methodology to estimate the customer order lead time in the supply chain based on the process capability index. The cases when the process output is normally distributed and when it is not are considered. The relationships between the system capability indices in both service and manufacturing applications, delivery system reliability and the percentages of orders delivered after their promised due dates are presented. The proposed method can be used to examine the current process capability to deliver the orders before the promised lead-time. If the system was found to be incapable, the method can be used to help revise the current lead-time to a proper value according to the service reliability level selected by the management. Numerical examples and a case study describing the lead time estimation methodology and testing the system capability of delivering the orders before their promised due date are illustrated.

Keywords: lead-time estimation, process capability index, delivery system reliability, statistical analysis, service achievement index, service quality

Procedia PDF Downloads 559

Authors: Alan Collins

Abstract:

This study explains how The People’s Tribunal empowered survivors of child abuse. It examines how People’s tribunals can be effective mean of empowerment; the challenges of empowerment – expectation v. reality; the findings and how they reflect other inquiry findings; and the importance of listening and learning from survivors. UKCSAPT “The People’s Tribunal” was established by survivors of child sex abuse and members of civil society to investigate historic cases of institutional sex abuse. The independent inquiry, led by a panel of four judges, listened to evidence spanning four decades from survivors and experts. A common theme throughout these accounts showed that a series of institutional failures prevented abuse from being reported; and that there are clear links between children being rendered vulnerable by these failures and predatory abuse on an organised scale. It made a series of recommendations including the establishment of a permanent and open forum for victims to share experiences and give evidence, better links between mental health services and police investigations, and training for police and judiciary professionals on the effects of undisclosed sexual abuse. The main findings of the UKCSAPT report were:-There are clear links between children rendered vulnerable by institutional failures and predatory abuse on an organised scale, even if these links often remain obscure. -UK governmental institutions have failed to provide survivors with meaningful opportunities for either healing or justice. -The vital mental health needs of survivors are not being met and this undermines both their psychological recovery and access to justice. -Police and other authorities often lack the training to understand the complex reasons for the inability of survivors to immediately disclose a history of abuse. -Without far-reaching changes in institutional culture and practices, the sexual abuse of children will continue to be a significant scourge in the UK. The report also outlined a series of recommendations for improving reporting and mental health provision, and access to justice for victims were made, including: -A permanent, government-funded popular tribunal should be established to enable survivors to come forward and tell their stories. -Survivors giving evidence should be assigned an advocate to assist their access to justice. -Mental health services should be linked to police investigations to help victims disclose abuse. -Victims who fear reprisals should be provided with a channel though which to give evidence anonymously.

Keywords: empowerment, survivors, sexual, abuse

Procedia PDF Downloads 263

Authors: Alvaro Figueira, Bruno Cabral

Abstract:

Nowadays, students are used to be assessed through an online platform. Educators have stepped up from a period in which they endured the transition from paper to digital. The use of a diversified set of question types that range from quizzes to open questions is currently common in most university courses. In many courses, today, the evaluation methodology also fosters the students’ online participation in forums, the download, and upload of modified files, or even the participation in group activities. At the same time, new pedagogy theories that promote the active participation of students in the learning process, and the systematic use of problem-based learning, are being adopted using an eLearning system for that purpose. However, although there can be a lot of feedback from these activities to student’s, usually it is restricted to the assessments of online well-defined tasks. In this article, we propose an automatic system that informs students of abnormal deviations of a 'correct' learning path in the course. Our approach is based on the fact that by obtaining this information earlier in the semester, may provide students and educators an opportunity to resolve an eventual problem regarding the student’s current online actions towards the course. Our goal is to prevent situations that have a significant probability to lead to a poor grade and, eventually, to failing. In the major learning management systems (LMS) currently available, the interaction between the students and the system itself is registered in log files in the form of registers that mark beginning of actions performed by the user. Our proposed system uses that logged information to derive new one: the time each student spends on each activity, the time and order of the resources used by the student and, finally, the online resource usage pattern. Then, using the grades assigned to the students in previous years, we built a learning dataset that is used to feed a machine learning meta classifier. The produced classification model is then used to predict the grades a learning path is heading to, in the current year. Not only this approach serves the teacher, but also the student to receive automatic feedback on her current situation, having past years as a perspective. Our system can be applied to online courses that integrate the use of an online platform that stores user actions in a log file, and that has access to other student’s evaluations. The system is based on a data mining process on the log files and on a self-feedback machine learning algorithm that works paired with the Moodle LMS.

Keywords: data mining, e-learning, grade prediction, machine learning, student learning path

Procedia PDF Downloads 127

Authors: Lexi Li, Vanessa H. K. Pang

Abstract:

This study aims to demonstrate how native and learner corpora can be used to enhance modal verb treatment in EFL textbooks in mainland China. It contributes to a corpus-informed and learner-centered design of grammar presentation in EFL textbooks that enhances the authenticity and appropriateness of textbook language for target learners. The linguistic focus is will, would, can, could, may, might, shall, should, must. The native corpus is the spoken component of BNC2014 (hereafter BNCS2014). The spoken part is chosen because pedagogical purpose of the textbooks is communication-oriented. Using the standard query option of CQPweb, 5% of each of the nine modals was sampled from BNCS2014. The learner corpus is the POS-tagged Ten-thousand English Compositions of Chinese Learners (TECCL). All the essays under the 'secondary school' section were selected. A series of five secondary coursebooks comprise the textbook corpus. All the data in both the learner and the textbook corpora are retrieved through the concordance functions of WordSmith Tools (version, 5.0). Data analysis was divided into two parts. The first part compared the patterns of modal verbs in the textbook corpus and BNC2014 with respect to distributional features, semantic functions, and co-occurring constructions to examine whether the textbooks reflect the authentic use of English. Secondly, the learner corpus was analyzed in terms of the use (distributional features, semantic functions, and co-occurring constructions) and the misuse (syntactic errors, e.g., she can sings*.) of the nine modal verbs to uncover potential difficulties that confront learners. The analysis of distribution indicates several discrepancies between the textbook corpus and BNCS2014. The first four most frequent modal verbs in BNCS2014 are can, would, will, could, while can, will, should, could are the top four in the textbooks. Most strikingly, there is an unusually high proportion of can (41.1%) in the textbooks. The results on different meanings shows that will, would and must are the most problematic. For example, for will, the textbooks contain 20% more occurrences of 'volition' and 20% less of 'prediction' than those in BNCS2014. Regarding co-occurring structures, the textbooks over-represented the structure 'modal +do' across the nine modal verbs. Another major finding is that the structure of 'modal +have done' that frequently co-occur with could, would, should, and must is underused in textbooks. Besides, these four modal verbs are the most difficult for learners, as the error analysis shows. This study demonstrates how the synergy of native and learner corpora can be harnessed to improve EFL textbook presentation of modal verbs in a way that textbooks can provide not only authentic language used in natural discourse but also appropriate design tailed for the needs of target learners.

Keywords: English as Foreign Language, EFL textbooks, learner corpus, modal verbs, native corpus

Procedia PDF Downloads 145

Authors: Xuemei Jiang, Kunfu Zhu, Shouyang Wang

Abstract:

In this paper, we selected China as a case and employ a time-series of unique input-output tables distinguishing firm ownership and processing exports, to evaluate the role of foreign-invested enterprises (FIEs) in China’s rapid carbon dioxide emission growth. The results suggested that FIEs contributed to 11.55% of the economic outputs’ growth in China between 1992-2010, but accounted for only 9.65% of the growth of carbon dioxide emissions. In relative term, until 2010 FIEs still emitted much less than Chinese-owned enterprises (COEs) when producing the same amount of outputs, although COEs experienced much faster technology upgrades. In an ideal scenario where we assume the final demands remain unchanged and COEs completely mirror the advanced technologies of FIEs, more than 2000 Mt of carbon dioxide emissions would be reduced for China in 2010. From a policy perspective, the widespread FIEs are very effective and efficient channel to encourage technology transfer from developed to developing countries.

Keywords: carbon dioxide emissions, foreign-invested enterprises, technology transfer, input–output analysis, China

Procedia PDF Downloads 402

Authors: Ayala Amir

Abstract:

The paper presents interdisciplinary research which draws on the literary study and the cultural study of photography to explore a literary genre defined by nostalgia – the photographed book for children. This genre, which was popular in the second half of the 20th century, presents the romantic, nostalgic image of childhood created in the visual arts in the 18th century (as suggested by Ann Higonnet). At the same time, it capitalizes on the nostalgia inherent in the event of photography as formulated by Jennifer Green-Lewis: photography frames a moment in the present while transforming it into a past longed for in the future. Unlike Freudian melancholy, nostalgia is an effect that enables representation by acknowledging the loss and containing it in the very experience of the object. The representation and preservation of the lost object (nature, childhood, innocence) are in the center of the genre of children's photography books – a modern version of ancient pastoral. In it, the unique synergia of word and image results in a nostalgic image of childhood in an era already conquered by modernization. The nostalgic effect works both in the representation of space – an Edenic image of nature already shadowed by its demise, and of time – an image of childhood imbued by what Gill Bartholnyes calls the "looking backward aesthetics" – under the sign of loss. Little critical attention has been devoted to this genre with the exception of the work of Bettina Kümmerling-Meibauer, who noted the nostalgic effect of the well-known series of photography books by Astrid Lindgren and Anna Riwkin-Brick. This research aims to elaborate Kümmerling-Meibauer's approach using the theories of the study of photography, word-image studies, as well as current studies of childhood. The theoretical perspectives are implemented in the case study of photography books created in one of the most innovative social structures in our time – the Israeli Kibbutz. This communal way of life designed a society where children will experience their childhood in a parentless rural environment that will save them from the fate of the Oedipal fall. It is suggested that in documenting these children in a fictional format, photographers and writers, images and words cooperated in creating nostalgic works situated on the border between nature and culture, imagination and reality, utopia and its realization in history.

Keywords: nostalgia, photography , childhood, children's books, kibutz

Procedia PDF Downloads 146

Authors: Miladi Yasmine, Bouhlel Salah, Garnit Hechmi

Abstract:

Hydrothermal vein-type deposits of the Hammam Jedidi F-Ba(Pb-Zn-Cu) are hosted in Lower Jurassic, Cretaceous and Tertiary series, and located near a very important structural lineament (NE-SW) corresponding to the Hammam Jedidi Fault in the Tunisian Dorsale. The circulation of the ore forming fluid is triggered by a regional tectonic compressive phase which occurred during the miocène time. Mineralization occurs as stratabound and vein-type orebodies adjacent to the Triassic salt diapirs and within fault in Jurassic limestone. Fluid inclusions data show that two distinct fluids were involved in the mineralisation deposition: a warmer saline fluid (180°C, 20 wt % NaCl equivalent) and cooler less saline fluid (126°C, 5wt%NaCl equivalent). The contrasting salinities and halogen ratios suggest that this two fluid derived from one of the brine originated after the dissolution of halite as suggested by its high salinity. The other end member, as indicated by the low Cl/Br ratios, acquired its low salinity by dilution of Br enriched evaporated seawater. These results are compatible with Mississippi-Valley- type mineralization.

Keywords: Jebel Oust, fluid inclusions, North Eastern Tunisia, mineralization

Procedia PDF Downloads 347

Authors: Vadim A. Kuznetsov, Anna M. Soldatova, Tatyana N. Enina, Elena A. Gorbatenko, Dmitrii V. Krinochkin

Abstract:

The aim of the study was to evaluate potential parameters related with super-response to CRT. Methods: 60 CRT patients (mean age 54.3 ± 9.8 years; 80% men) with congestive heart failure (CHF) II-IV NYHA functional class, left ventricular ejection fraction < 35% were enrolled. At baseline, 1 month, 3 months and each 6 months after implantation clinical, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic parameters, NT-proBNP level were evaluated. According to the best decrease of left ventricular end-systolic volume (LVESV) (mean follow-up period 33.7 ± 15.1 months) patients were classified as super-responders (SR) (n=28; reduction in LVESV ≥ 30%) and non-SR (n=32; reduction in LVESV < 30%). Results: At baseline groups differed in age (58.1 ± 5.8 years in SR vs 50.8 ± 11.4 years in non-SR; p=0.003), gender (female gender 32.1% vs 9.4% respectively; p=0.028), width of QRS complex (157.6 ± 40.6 ms in SR vs 137.6 ± 33.9 ms in non-SR; p=0.044). Percentage of LBBB was equal between groups (75% in SR vs 59.4% in non-SR; p=0.274). All parameters of mechanical dyssynchrony were higher in SR, but only difference in left ventricular pre-ejection period (LVPEP) was statistically significant (153.0 ± 35.9 ms vs. 129.3 ± 28.7 ms p=0.032). NT-proBNP level was lower in SR (1581 ± 1369 pg/ml vs 3024 ± 2431 pg/ml; p=0.006). The survival rates were 100% in SR and 90.6% in non-SR (log-rank test P=0.002). Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that LVPEP (HR 1.024; 95% CI 1.004–1.044; P = 0.017), baseline NT-proBNP level (HR 0.628; 95% CI 0.414–0.953; P=0.029) and age at baseline (HR 1.094; 95% CI 1.009-1.168; P=0.30) were independent predictors for CRT super-response. ROC curve analysis demonstrated sensitivity 71.9% and specificity 82.1% (AUC=0.827; p < 0.001) of this model in prediction of super-response to CRT. Conclusion: Super-response to CRT is associated with better survival in long-term period. Presence of LBBB was not associated with super-response. LVPEP, NT-proBNP level, and age at baseline can be used as independent predictors of CRT super-response.

Keywords: cardiac resynchronisation therapy, superresponse, congestive heart failure, left bundle branch block

Procedia PDF Downloads 403

Authors: JaeHwan Yang, Da-Woon Jeong, Seung-Young Kho, Dong-Kyu Kim

Abstract:

In terms of ITS, information on link characteristic is an essential factor for plan or operation. But in practical cases, not every link has installed sensors on it. The link that does not have data on it is called “Missing Link”. The purpose of this study is to impute data of these missing links. To get these data, this study applies the machine learning method. With the machine learning process, especially for the deep learning process, missing link data can be estimated from present link data. For deep learning process, this study uses “Recurrent Neural Network” to take time-series data of road. As input data, Dedicated Short-range Communications (DSRC) data of Dalgubul-daero of Daegu Metropolitan Area had been fed into the learning process. Neural Network structure has 17 links with present data as input, 2 hidden layers, for 1 missing link data. As a result, forecasted data of target link show about 94% of accuracy compared with actual data.

Keywords: data estimation, link data, machine learning, road network

Procedia PDF Downloads 512