Search results for: predicting factors

Authors: Berengere Vire, Nicolas Salvetat, Yoann Lannay, Guillaume Marcellin, Siem Van Der Laan, Franck Molina, Dinah Weissmann

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Predicting suicidal behaviors is one of the most complex challenges of daily psychiatric practices. Today, suicide risk prediction using biological tools is not validated and is only based on subjective clinical reports of the at-risk individual. Therefore, there is a great need to identify biomarkers that would allow early identification of individuals at risk of suicide. Alterations of adenosine-to-inosine (A-to-I) RNA editing of neurotransmitter receptors and other proteins have been shown to be involved in etiology of different psychiatric disorders and linked to suicidal behavior. RNA editing is a co- or post-transcriptional process leading to a site-specific alteration in RNA sequences. It plays an important role in the epi transcriptomic regulation of RNA metabolism. On postmortem human brain tissue (prefrontal cortex) of depressed suicide victims, Alcediag found specific alterations of RNA editing activity on the mRNA coding for the serotonin 2C receptor (5-HT2cR). Additionally, an increase in expression levels of ADARs, the RNA editing enzymes, and modifications of RNA editing profiles of prime targets, such as phosphodiesterase 8A (PDE8A) mRNA, have also been observed. Interestingly, the PDE8A gene is located on chromosome 15q25.3, a genomic region that has recurrently been associated with the early-onset major depressive disorder (MDD). In the current study, we examined whether modifications in RNA editing profile of prime targets allow identifying disease-relevant blood biomarkers and evaluating suicide risk in patients. To address this question, we performed a clinical study to identify an RNA editing signature in blood of depressed patients with and without the history of suicide attempts. Patient’s samples were drawn in PAXgene tubes and analyzed on Alcediag’s proprietary RNA editing platform using next generation sequencing technology. In addition, gene expression analysis by quantitative PCR was performed. We generated a multivariate algorithm comprising various selected biomarkers to detect patients with a high risk to attempt suicide. We evaluated the diagnostic performance using the relative proportion of PDE8A mRNA editing at different sites and/or isoforms as well as the expression of PDE8A and the ADARs. The significance of these biomarkers for suicidality was evaluated using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC). The generated algorithm comprising the biomarkers was found to have strong diagnostic performances with high specificity and sensitivity. In conclusion, we developed tools to measure disease-specific biomarkers in blood samples of patients for identifying individuals at the greatest risk for future suicide attempts. This technology not only fosters patient management but is also suitable to predict the risk of drug-induced psychiatric side effects such as iatrogenic increase of suicidal ideas/behaviors.

Keywords: blood biomarker, next-generation-sequencing, RNA editing, suicide

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Authors: Ahmed Omar Bali, Sherko Jabar, Hazhar Jalal, Mahdi Sofi-Karim

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For a long while in Iraq, media organizations were owned by political parties, particularly the ruling parties, because media traditional organizations required big capital and human resources. This paper has examined the dynamics of Iraqi media market transformation with emphasizing on factors that help to merge media entrepreneurs and digital media firms which target audience on social media. A qualitative method was adopted in this study using open, in-depth interviews with 19 media entrepreneurs and three managers of media firms. The study revealed that relative freedom and advanced communication technologies have encouraged media entrepreneurs to drive the new media on producing short videos and broadcast them on social media which has become popular among media consumers.

Keywords: media entrepreneur, Iraq, journalists, media technicians, digital media firms, media market

Procedia PDF Downloads 305

Authors: Chih-Ping Chen

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Despite the increasing popularity of and interest in mobile games, there has been little research that evaluates gender differences in users’ actual preferences for mobile game content, and the factors that influence entertainment and mobile-learning habits. To fill this void, this study examines different gender users’ experience of mobile English learning game adoption in order to identify the areas of development in Taiwan, using Uses and Gratification Theory, Expectation Confirmation Theory and experiential value. The integration of these theories forms the basis of an extended research concept. Users’ responses to questions about cognitive perceptions, confirmation, gratifications and continuous use were collected and analyzed with various factors derived from the theories.

Keywords: expectation confirmation theory, experiential value, gender difference, mobile game, uses and gratification

Procedia PDF Downloads 331

Authors: Hsu-Yung Cheng, Kuo-Chang Hsu, Chi-Chang Chan, Mei-Hui Tseng, Chih-Chang Yu, Ya-Sheng Liu

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Photovoltaics modules are usually not installed horizontally to avoid water or dust accumulation. However, the measured irradiance data on tilted surfaces are rarely available since installing pyranometers with various tilt angles induces high costs. Therefore, estimating solar irradiance on tilted surfaces is an important research topic. In this work, artificial neural networks (ANN) are utilized to construct the transfer model to estimate solar irradiance on tilted surfaces. Instead of predicting tilted irradiance directly, the proposed method estimates the differences between the horizontal irradiance and the irradiance on a tilted surface. The outputs of the ANNs in the proposed design are differential values. The experimental results have shown that the proposed ANNs with differential outputs can substantially improve the estimation accuracy compared to ANNs that estimate the titled irradiance directly.

Keywords: photovoltaics, artificial neural networks, tilted irradiance, solar energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 397

Authors: Luen Chow Chan

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With the advocacy of green transportation and green traveling, cycling has become increasingly popular nowadays. Physiology and bike design are key factors for the influence of cycling efficiency. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the significance of bike-frame geometric factors on cycling efficiency and muscle activation for different body sizes of non-professional Asian male cyclists. Participants who represented various body sizes, as measured by leg and back lengths, carried out cycling tests using a tailor-assembled road bike with different ergonomic design configurations including seat-height adjustments (i.e., 96%, 100%, and 104% of trochanteric height) and bike frame sizes (i.e., small and medium frames) for an assessable distance of 1 km. A specific power meter and self-developed adaptable surface electromyography (sEMG) were used to measure average pedaling power and cadence generated and muscle activation, respectively. The results showed that changing the seat height was far more significant than the body and bike frame sizes. The sEMG data evidently provided a better understanding of muscle activation as a function of different seat heights. Therefore, the interpretation of this study is that the major bike ergonomic design factor dominating the cycling efficiency of Asian participants with different body sizes was the seat height.

Keywords: bike frame sizes, cadence rate, pedaling power, seat height

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Authors: Kaleb Shiferaw, Berhanu Geberemedhin, Dereje Legesse

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Access to credit is often viewed as a key to transform semi-subsistence smallholders into market oriented producers. However, only a few studies have examined factors that affect farmers’ decision to allocate credit on farm activities in general and livestock production in particular. A trivariate probit model with double selection is employed to identify factors that affect farmers’ decision to allocate credit on livestock production using data collected from smallholder farmers in Ethiopia. After controlling for two sample selection bias – taking credit for the production season and decision to allocate credit on farm activities – land ownership and access to a livestock centered extension service are found to have a significant (p<0.001) effect on farmers decision to use credit for livestock production. The result showed farmers with large land holding, and access to a livestock centered extension services are more likely to utilize credit for livestock production. However since the effect of land ownership squared is negative the effect of land ownership for those who own a large plot of land lessens. The study highlights the fact that improving access to credit does not automatically translate into more productive households. Improving farmers’ access to credit should be followed by a focused extension services.

Keywords: livestock production, credit access, credit allocation, household decision, double sample selection

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Authors: Pavitra Sharma, A. K. Singh

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The establishment of pest population in a habitat is greatly influenced by abiotic factors, such as temperature, photoperiod, and humidity. These factors influence the biology and behavior of insects and their pest status. Nezara viridula (Heteroptera: Pentatomidae), commonly known as southern green stink bug, is economically important pest of legumes. Both nymphs and adult suck the sap from different part of the plant and deteriorate the standing crop. Present study involves effects of temperature on incubation, hatching success and nymphal duration of N. viridula. The results indicated that the development of eggs requires optimal temperature range. Temperature conditions above and below the optimum range affect the incubation period as well as the percent hatchability of eggs. At 19°C, the egg incubation period was longest whereas it was shortest at 27°C. The change in temperature from the optimum condition also affected the hatchability of eggs in N. viridula. Decrease in the hatchability was observed with the decrease in temperature. However, the results were not statistically significant. Decrease in temperature from the optimum temperature to 19°C, also resulted in an increase in nymphal duration of N. viridula. However, no such effect of temperature within the studied range was observed on the morphology of nymphs or adults. Variation in temperature also had no adverse effects on the survival of laboratory bred population of Nezara nymphs. The feeding activity of the bug in relation to photoperiod was assessed by counting the number of punctures on the food surface. The results indicated that day-night regime did not affect the feeding activity of the bug significantly. The present study enhances our knowledge about the effect of environmental factors on the biology of insects and developing the strategy for ‘Integrated Pest Management’ of hemipteran insects by management of the physical factors.

Keywords: development, feeding, hatchability, Nezara viridula

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Authors: Bahareh Zare

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The theory of the investment model of dating infidelity maintains that loyalty is an essential power within romantic relationships. Loyalty signifies both motivation and psychological attachment to maintain a relationship. This study examined the relationship between the Big Five Personality Factors (Extraversion, Neuroticism, Openness, Conscientiousness, and Agreeableness), probability of marital infidelity, and risk of divorce. The participants completed NEO-FFI, INFQ (infidelity questionnaire) and were interviewed by OHI (Oral History Interview). The results demonstrated that extraversion and agreeableness traits were significant predictors for the probability of infidelity and risk of divorce. In addition, conscientiousness predicted the probability of infidelity, while neuroticism predicted the risk of divorce.

Keywords: five factors personality, infidelity, risk of divorce, investment theory

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Authors: B. Rusyidi, D. Mariana

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Although reforms in trafficking regulations have taken place since 2007, Indonesia is still struggling to fight child trafficking. This study aimed to identify and assess risk factors and vulnerabilities in the life of trafficked children prior to, during, and after being trafficked in order to inform the child protection system and its policies. The study was qualitative and utilized in-depth interviews to collect data. Data were gathered in 2014 and 2015 from 15 trafficked and sexually exploited girls aged 14 to 17 years originating from West Java. Social workers, safe home personnel and parents were also included as informants. Data analysis was guided by the ecological perspective and theme analyses. The study found that risks and vulnerabilities of the victims were associated with conditions at various levels of the environment. At the micro level, risk factors and vulnerabilities included young age, family conflict/violence, involvement with the “wrong” circle of friends/peers, family poverty, lack of social and economic support for the victim’s family, and psychological damages due to trafficking experiences. At the mezzo level, the lack of structured activities after school, economic inequality, stigma towards victims, lack of services for victims, and minimum public education on human trafficking were among the community hazards that increased the vulnerability and risks. Gender inequality, consumerism, the view of children as assets, corruption, weak law enforcement, the lack of institutional support, and community-wide ignorance regarding trafficking were found as factors that increased risks and vulnerabilities at the macro level. The findings from the study underline the necessity to reduce risk factors and promote protective factors at the individual, family, community and societal levels. Shifting the current focus from tertiary to primary/prevention policies and improving institutional efforts are pressing needs in the context of reducing child trafficking in Indonesia. The roles of human service providers including social work also should be promoted.

Keywords: child trafficking, child sexual exploitation, ecological perspective, risks and vulnerabilities

Procedia PDF Downloads 277

Authors: K.-H. Yang

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In the past, there was a lot of excellent research studies conducted on topics related to supplier selection. Because the considered factors of supplier selection are complicated and difficult to be quantified, most researchers deal supplier selection issues by qualitative approaches. Compared to qualitative approaches, quantitative approaches are less applicable in the real world. This study tried to apply the quantitative approach to study a supplier selection problem with considering operation cost and delivery reliability. By those factors, this study applies Normalized Normal Constraint Method to solve the dual objectives mixed integer program of the supplier selection problem.

Keywords: bi-objectives MIP, normalized normal constraint method, supplier selection, quantitative approach

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Authors: Elaheh Ezami, Behzad Mohammadian, Elham Aznab

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Health service design will need to change due to bringing in new digital health tools. This highlights the importance of innovation in adopting Health Information Technology (HIT). It can be argued that innovation in the health sector correlates with entrepreneurship. Various reasons exist for health entrepreneurs to advocate increased investment in HIT to compensate for shortcomings in the health sector and improve the quality of healthcare. Furthermore, every innovative program presents challenges and motivations for entrepreneurs that may distract or encourage the adoption of technology. Our study used a systematic literature review to identify relevant articles that defined the frustrations and promotions of using health information technology in organizations or enterprises. A meta-analysis of the articles was conducted to identify the factors driving or pulling entrepreneurs to use HIT.

Keywords: health information technology, health entrepreneurship, health enterprise, health entrepreneurs' innovation

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Authors: T. C. Hsu, H. L. Lin

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Taiwan is mountainous country, 70% of land is covered with mountains. Because of extreme climate, the mountain villages with sensitive and fragile environment often get easily affected by inundation and debris flow from typhoon which brings huge rainfall. Due to inappropriate development, overuse and fewer access roads, occurrence of disaster becomes more frequent through downpour and rescue actions are postponed. However, risk map is generally established through administrative boundaries, the difference of urban and rural area is ignored. The neglect of mountain village characteristics eventually underestimates the importance of factors related to vulnerability and reduces the effectiveness. In disaster management, there are different strategies and actions at each stage. According to different tasks, there will be different risk indices and weights to analyze disaster risk for each stage and then it will contribute to confront threat and reduce impact appropriately on right time. Risk map is important in mitigation, but also in response stage because some factors such as road network will be changed by disaster. This study will use risk assessment to establish risk map of Shanlin District which is mountain village in Kaohsiung as a case study in mitigation and response stage through Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). AHP helps to recognize the composition and weights of risk factors in mountain village by experts’ opinions through survey design and is combined with present potential hazard map to produce risk map.

Keywords: risk assessment, mountain village, risk map, analytic hierarchy process

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Authors: O. P. Oladipo, O. A. Falode

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The determination of Recovery Factor is of great importance to the reservoir engineer since it relates reserves to the initial oil in place. Reserves are the producible portion of reservoirs and give an indication of the profitability of a field Development. The core objective of this project is to develop an artificial neural network model using selected reservoir data to predict Recovery Factors (RF) of hydrocarbon reservoirs and compare the model with a couple of the existing correlations. The type of Artificial Neural Network model developed was the Single Layer Feed Forward Network. MATLAB was used as the network simulator and the network was trained using the supervised learning method, Afterwards, the network was tested with input data never seen by the network. The results of the predicted values of the recovery factors of the Artificial Neural Network Model, API Correlation for water drive reservoirs (Sands and Sandstones) and Guthrie and Greenberger Correlation Equation were obtained and compared. It was noted that the coefficient of correlation of the Artificial Neural Network Model was higher than the coefficient of correlations of the other two correlation equations, thus making it a more accurate prediction tool. The Artificial Neural Network, because of its accurate prediction ability is helpful in the correct prediction of hydrocarbon reservoir factors. Artificial Neural Network could be applied in the prediction of other Petroleum Engineering parameters because it is able to recognise complex patterns of data set and establish a relationship between them.

Keywords: recovery factor, reservoir, reserves, artificial neural network, hydrocarbon, MATLAB, API, Guthrie, Greenberger

Procedia PDF Downloads 441

Authors: Ichihan Tai, Bill Olson, Paul Blessner

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Traditional early warning systems that alarm against crisis are generally based on structured or numerical data; therefore, a system that can make predictions based on unstructured textual data, an uncorrelated data source, is a great complement to the traditional early warning systems. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), commonly referred to as the fear index, measures the cost of insurance against market crash, and spikes in the event of crisis. In this study, news data is consumed for prediction of whether there will be a market-wide crisis by predicting the movement of the fear index, and the historical references to similar events are presented in an unsupervised manner. Topic modeling-based prediction and representation are made based on daily news data between 1990 and 2015 from The Wall Street Journal against VIX index data from CBOE.

Keywords: early warning system, knowledge management, market prediction, topic modeling.

Procedia PDF Downloads 338

Authors: Alongkorn Pekalee, Rossarin Gray

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Various determinants associated with older health include socio-demographic factors and health-promoting behaviors but lack in scholars recommended what factors associated with health status in specific sub-groups of older adults. The current study aims to explore the health-promoting behaviors and to examine and compare the associations of these factors with self-rated health status among three older age cohorts in Thai traditional context. Methods: This study is based on the Survey of Older Persons in Thailand (SOPT), in 2017, conducted by the National Statistical Office (NSO) of Thailand. Participants were classified into three groups by using the Thai contextual recommendation: youngest-old cohort (60-69), old-old cohort (70-79) and oldest old cohort (80 or older). Health promoting behaviors are the behaviors which associated with the health status of older adults include alcohol consumption, smoking, diet, and physical activity. Health status was defined as a subjective measurement by using self-rated health, a simple measure of general health. The socio-demographic factors, health-promoting behaviors, and health status were explained and summarized by descriptive statistics. The binary logistic regression was performed to analyze the data and evaluate the associations between independent and dependent variables. Results: Increase of age contributes to a higher proportion of health-promoting behaviors. All variables were associated with self-reported health status as good health among three older age cohorts statistically significant (p-value = 0.000). However, the influence of income sufficiency on health status is more notable, especially in older adults who aged 60-69 and 70-79. The influence of dietary and physical activity on health status became greater as age increased. Conclusion: the results suggest that income sufficiency should be noted in a plan to promote healthy aging, and co-residence should be more concerned especially in the oldest old cohort. Moreover, the interventions or policies to promote older health behaviors like diet and physical activity should be emphasized in the oldest old cohort more than others.

Keywords: health-promoting behaviors, older adults, self- rated health, Thailand

Procedia PDF Downloads 138

Authors: Saiakhil Chilaka

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Understanding the demographic factors that influence mortality from respiratory diseases like COVID-19, pneumonia, and influenza is crucial for informing public health policy. This study utilizes multivariable regression models to assess the relationship between state, sex, and age group on deaths from these diseases using U.S. data from 2020 to 2023. The analysis reveals that age and sex play significant roles in mortality, while state-level variations are minimal. Although the model’s low R-squared values indicate that additional factors are at play, this paper discusses how these findings, in light of recent research, can inform future public health policy, resource allocation, and intervention strategies.

Keywords: COVID-19, multivariable regression, public policy, data science

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Authors: Diego Rodrigues, Marcelo Lisboa, Elismar Batista, Marcos Dias

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Based on data on child labor, this work arises questions about how to understand and locate the factors that make up the child labor rates, and which properties are important to analyze these cases. Using data mining techniques to discover valid patterns on Brazilian social databases were evaluated data of child labor in the State of Tocantins (located north of Brazil with a territory of 277000 km2 and comprises 139 counties). This work aims to detect factors that are deterministic for the practice of child labor and their relationships with financial indicators, educational, regional and social, generating information that is not explicit in the government database, thus enabling better monitoring and updating policies for this purpose.

Keywords: social data, government decision making, association of social data, data mining

Procedia PDF Downloads 369

Authors: Aynura Valiyeva, Basil John Thomas

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Intra-firm communication is critical for building synergy amongst internal business units of a firm, where employees from various functional departments and ranks incorporate their decision-making, understanding of organizational objectives, as well as common norms and culture for better organizational effectiveness. This study builds on and assesses a framework of the causes and consequences of effective communication in business interactions between customer and supplier firms, and the path for efficient communication within a firm. The proposed study’s structural equation modeling (SEM) analysis based on 352 sample responses collected from firm representatives at different job positions ranging from marketing to logistics operations, reveals that, in the frame of reference of intra-organizational communication, organization characteristics and shared values, top management support and style of leadership, as well as information technology, are all significantly related to communication effectiveness. Furthermore, the frequency and variety of interactions enhance the outcome of communication, that improves a company’s performance. The results reveal that cultural factors are significantly related to communication effectiveness, as well as the shared beliefs and goals. In terms of organizational factors, leadership style, top management support and information technology are significant determinants of effective communication. Among the contextual factors, interaction frequency and diversity are found to be priority factors. This study also tests the relationship between supplier and supplier firm performance in the context of communication effectiveness, and finds that they are closely related, when trust and commitment is built between business partners. When firms do business in other multicultural contexts, language and shared values with destination country must be considered significant elements of communication process.

Keywords: business performance, intra-firm communication, inter-firm communication, structural equation modeling

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Authors: Mufide Cotuk, Muslim Bakir

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National education in Turkey aims to provide superior education opportunities to students in order to develop their intellectual abilities in accordance with contemporary pedagogy. Physical education (PE) plays an important role in this context. Various factors affect the quality and efficiency of the process of PE. Factors related to governance are crucially important, especially those of authority and responsibility. For educational institutions at high school level, the factors affecting authority and responsibility have not been clearly delineated. Therefore, the aim of this study was to examine authority and responsibility of PE teachers as the balance between them. The study sample consisted of 60 PE teachers (19 women, 41 men) at 57 high schools in Istanbul (65% state and 35% private institutions). All PE teachers completed the study questionnaire collecting demographic and institutional data as knowledge and attitudes regarding authority and responsibility issues. The determination of authority and responsibility of PE teachers has been grounded on the law for government officials, course-passing regulations, and school sports regulations. The PE teachers declared as the primary source of their authority and responsibility ‘school sports regulations’ (56,7% of PE teachers), ‘course-passing regulations’ (36,7% of PE teachers) and ‘the law for government officials’ (30,0% of PE teachers). The PE teachers mentioned that the school administration burdened them with additional responsibilities (58,3% of PE teachers). Such ‘additional’ responsibilities were primarily related to ‘disciplinary regulations’ (21,7% of PE teachers) and ‘maintenance of school order’ (16,0% of PE teachers). In conclusion, authority and responsibility of PE teachers were not well balanced. As authority issues were not clearly stated, ‘compulsory’ responsibilities increased causing this imbalance.

Keywords: authority, PE teacher, responsibility, sport management

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Authors: P. M. Keshtiban, M. Zadshakoyan

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One of the important factors that alter different process and geometrical parameters on metal forming processes is friction between contacting surfaces. Some important factors that effected directly by friction are: stress, strain, required load, wear of surfaces and then geometrical parameters. In order to control friction effects permanent lubrication is necessary. In this article, the friction coefficient is elicited by the most effective method, ring compression tests. The tests were done by both finite element method and practical tests. Different friction curves that extracted by finite element simulations and has good conformity with published results, used for obtaining final friction coefficient. In this study Mos2 is used as the lubricant and Al5754 alloy used as the specimens material.

Keywords: experiment, FEM, friction coefficient, ring compression

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Authors: Ammar Alali, Mahmoud Abughaban

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Cost reduction and drilling optimization is the goal of many drilling operators. Historically, stuck pipe incidents were a major segment of non-productive time (NPT) associated costs. Traditionally, stuck pipe problems are part of the operations and solved post-sticking. However, the real key to savings and success is in predicting the stuck pipe incidents and avoiding the conditions leading to its occurrences. Previous attempts in stuck-pipe predictions have neglected the local geology of the problem. The proposed predictive tool utilizes geophysical data processing techniques and Machine Learning (ML) algorithms to predict drilling activities events in real-time using surface drilling data with minimum computational power. The method combines two types of analysis: (1) real-time prediction, and (2) cause analysis. Real-time prediction aggregates the input data, including historical drilling surface data, geological formation tops, and petrophysical data, from wells within the same field. The input data are then flattened per the geological formation and stacked per stuck-pipe incidents. The algorithm uses two physical methods (stacking and flattening) to filter any noise in the signature and create a robust pre-determined pilot that adheres to the local geology. Once the drilling operation starts, the Wellsite Information Transfer Standard Markup Language (WITSML) live surface data are fed into a matrix and aggregated in a similar frequency as the pre-determined signature. Then, the matrix is correlated with the pre-determined stuck-pipe signature for this field, in real-time. The correlation used is a machine learning Correlation-based Feature Selection (CFS) algorithm, which selects relevant features from the class and identifying redundant features. The correlation output is interpreted as a probability curve of stuck pipe incidents prediction in real-time. Once this probability passes a fixed-threshold defined by the user, the other component, cause analysis, alerts the user of the expected incident based on set pre-determined signatures. A set of recommendations will be provided to reduce the associated risk. The validation process involved feeding of historical drilling data as live-stream, mimicking actual drilling conditions, of an onshore oil field. Pre-determined signatures were created for three problematic geological formations in this field prior. Three wells were processed as case studies, and the stuck-pipe incidents were predicted successfully, with an accuracy of 76%. This accuracy of detection could have resulted in around 50% reduction in NPT, equivalent to 9% cost saving in comparison with offset wells. The prediction of stuck pipe problem requires a method to capture geological, geophysical and drilling data, and recognize the indicators of this issue at a field and geological formation level. This paper illustrates the efficiency and the robustness of the proposed cross-disciplinary approach in its ability to produce such signatures and predicting this NPT event.

Keywords: drilling optimization, hazard prediction, machine learning, stuck pipe

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Authors: Graham Hancox, Saydia Razak, Sue Hignett, Jo Barnes, Jyri Silmari, Florian Kading

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In the event of a Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) incident rapidly gaining, situational awareness is of paramount importance and advanced technologies have an important role to play in improving detection, identification, monitoring (DIM) and patient tracking. Understanding how these advanced technologies can fit into current response systems is essential to ensure they are optimally designed, usable and meet end-users’ needs. For this reason, Human Factors (Ergonomics) methods have been used within an EU Horizon 2020 project (TOXI-Triage) to firstly describe (map) the hierarchical structure in a CBRN response with adapted Accident Map (AcciMap) methodology. Secondly, Hierarchical Task Analysis (HTA) has been used to describe and review the sequence of steps (sub-tasks) in a CBRN scenario response as a task system. HTA methodology was then used to map one advanced technology, ‘Tag and Trace’, which tags an element (people, sample and equipment) with a Near Field Communication (NFC) chip in the Hot Zone to allow tracing of (monitoring), for example casualty progress through the response. This HTA mapping of the Tag and Trace system showed how the provider envisaged the technology being used, allowing for review and fit with the current CBRN response systems. These methodologies have been found to be very effective in promoting and supporting a dialogue between end-users and technology providers. The Human Factors methods have given clear diagrammatic (visual) representations of how providers see their technology being used and how end users would actually use it in the field; allowing for a more user centered approach to the design process. For CBRN events usability is critical as sub-optimum design of technology could add to a responders’ workload in what is already a chaotic, ambiguous and safety critical environment.

Keywords: AcciMap, CBRN, ergonomics, hierarchical task analysis, human factors

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Authors: Mesias Alfeus, Kirsty Fitzhenry, Alessia Lederer

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The present paper provides empirical studies to estimate defaultable bonds in the South African financial market. The main goal is to estimate the unobservable factors affecting bond yields for South African major banks. The maximum likelihood approach is adopted for the estimation methodology. Extended Kalman filtering techniques are employed in order to tackle the situation that the factors cannot be observed directly. Multi-dimensional Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR)-type factor models are considered. Results show that default risk increased sharply in the South African financial market during COVID-19 and the CIR model with jumps exhibits a better performance.

Keywords: default intensity, unobservable state variables, CIR, α-CIR, extended kalman filtering

Procedia PDF Downloads 111

Authors: David Xiaoqian Sun, Khairunnisa Binti Haji Sibah, Jr., Lejak Anak Ambol

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The purpose of the study was to examine the relationships between objectively measured physical activity levels (PALs), enjoyment of physical activity (EPA), and body mass index (BMI) among adolescents. A total of 188 12-14-year-old Bruneian secondary school adolescents (88 boys and 100 girls) voluntarily took part in this study. Subjects wore the RT3 accelerometer for seven consecutive days in order to measure their PALs. Times of students’ engagement in total (TPA), light (LPA), moderate (MPV), and vigorous PA (VPA) were obtained from the accelerometer. Their BMIs were calculated from their body height and weight. Physical Activity Enjoyment Scale (PACES) was administrated to obtain their EPA levels. Four key enjoyment factors including fun factors, positive perceptions, unexciting in doing activities, and negative perceptions were identified. Subjects’ social economic status (SES) was provided by school administration. Results show that all the adolescents did not meet the recommended PA guidelines even though boys were engaged in more MVPA than girls. No relationships were found between BMI and all PALs in both boys and girls. BMI was significantly related to the PACES scores (r = -.22, p = 0.01), fun factors (r = -.20, p = 0.05) and positive perceptions (r =-.21, p < 0.05). The PACES scores were significantly related to LPA (r = .18, p = 0.01) but not related to MVPA (r = .04, p > 0.05). After controlling for age and SES, BMI was only significantly related to the PACES scores in girls (r = -.27, p < .01) but boys (r = -.06, p > 0.05). Fun factors were significantly related to LPA and MVPA (p < .01) in girls while negative perceptions were significantly related to LPA and MVPA (p < .01) in boys. This study provides evidence that enjoyment may be a trigger of LPA but MVPA and may be influenced by their BMI status particularly in girls. Based on these findings, physical and health educators are suggested to not only make PA more enjoyable, but also consider gender differences in promoting adolescents' participation in MVPA.

Keywords: accelerometer, body mass index, enjoyment of physical activity, moderate to vigorous physical activity

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Authors: Rami El-Hajj Mohamad, Mahmoud Skafi, Ali Massoud Haidar

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Several meteorological parameters were used for the prediction of monthly average daily global solar radiation on horizontal using recurrent neural networks (RNNs). Climatological data and measures, mainly air temperature, humidity, sunshine duration, and wind speed between 1995 and 2007 were used to design and validate a feed forward and recurrent neural network based prediction systems. In this paper we present our reference system based on a feed-forward multilayer perceptron (MLP) as well as the proposed approach based on an RNN model. The obtained results were promising and comparable to those obtained by other existing empirical and neural models. The experimental results showed the advantage of RNNs over simple MLPs when we deal with time series solar radiation predictions based on daily climatological data.

Keywords: recurrent neural networks, global solar radiation, multi-layer perceptron, gradient, root mean square error

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Authors: Elucir Gir, Laelson Rochelle Milanês Sousa, Renata Karina Reis, Soraia Assad Nasbine Rabeh, Mayra Gonçalves Menegueti, Ana Cristina de Oliveira e Silva, Sheila Araújo Teles

Abstract:

Context and significance: Nursing team professionals faced challenges in combating the COVID-19 pandemic around the world. They were subjected to exhausting workloads and prolonged use of Personal Protective Equipment. Using N95 masks for long periods of time can cause skin changes. In this context, health professionals who worked on the front lines of fighting the pandemic were more exposed to possible physical and psychological changes. Objective: The aim of the study was to analyze the factors associated with skin lesions resulting from the use of N95 masks among nursing team professionals. Method: The study was carried out in all regions of Brazil from October to December 2020, with professionals from the nursing team who worked in health care during the COVID-19 pandemic. Participants were recruited via social media, and information was collected electronically and stored on the Survey Monkey platform. Descriptive statistics were used to characterize the sample, association tests (Chi-square), with a statistical significance level of p < 0.05. Factors associated with skin lesions resulting from the use of an N95 mask were determined by Binary Logistic Regression, with a significance level of 5% (α = 0.05). Results: 8,405 nursing professionals participated in the study, 5,492 nurses (65.3%), 2,747 nursing technicians (32.7%), and 7,084 females (84.3%). Female nursing team professionals were 1.4 times more likely to develop skin lesions due to the use of N95 masks when compared to males (OR 1.4 [CI95% 1.22 – 1.59] p < 0.001). The following protective factors were identified: nursing technician (ORA 0.608 [CI95% 0.43 – 0.86] p = 0.005) and not having provided assistance in field hospitals for COVID-19 (0.73 [CI95% 0.65-0.81] p<0.000). Conclusion: It was concluded that female nursing team professionals were more likely to have skin changes related to the use of N95 masks. The need for intervention studies is emphasized in order to explore measures to prevent these types of injuries. Descritores: Nursing professionals; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; Brazil.

Keywords: nursing professionals, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Brazil

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Authors: Francisco Toledo-Castillo, María Josefa Sospedra-Baeza, Sergio Hidalgo-Fuentes

Abstract:

Motorcycles constitute about 9% of all motorized vehicles in Spain and are generally overrepresented in traffic accidents, accounting for 21% of total accidents. Six years of motorcycle accident data were obtained through the national accident database of Spain (Dirección General de Tráfico). Some of the studied factors are age, gender, helmet wearing, alcohol consumption, speeding, subject’s driving license and for how long it has been held, the trip purpose, and the presence of a passenger on the vehicle. Key findings show helmet use, unsafe speed, the trip purpose, weather, distraction, collision type and other variables play significant roles in crash-injury outcomes. Finally, we examine evolution of mortality and severity from 2006 to 2011.

Keywords: motorcycle accidents, risk factors, statistics, Spain

Procedia PDF Downloads 364

Authors: Zichun Guo

Abstract:

Guangzhou's house price has long been lower than the other three major cities; with the gradual increase in Guangzhou's house price, the influencing factors of house price have gradually been paid attention to; this paper tries to use house price data and POI (Point of Interest) data, and explores the distribution of house price and influencing factors by applying the Kriging spatial interpolation method and geographically weighted regression model in ArcGIS. The results show that the interpolation result of house price has a significant relationship with the economic development and development potential of the region and that different POI types have different impacts on the growth of house prices in different regions.

Keywords: POI, house price, spatial heterogeneity, Guangzhou

Procedia PDF Downloads 55

Authors: Wang Zhenzhen, Wang Xu, Hong Liangping

Abstract:

The construction of thematic commercial streets has been on the hotspot with the rapid development of cities. In order to improve the image and competitiveness of cities, many cities are building or rebuilding thematic commercial streets. However, many contradictions and problems have emerged during this process. Therefore, it is significant, for both the practice and the research, to analyse the development of thematic commercial streets and provide some useful suggestions. Through the deep research and comparative study of the eight typical thematic commercial streets in Harbin, this paper summarize the current situations, laws and influencing factors of the development of these streets, and then put forward some suggestions about the plan, constructions and developments of the thematic commercial streets.

Keywords: thematic commercial streets, laws of the development, influence factors, the constructions and developments, degrees of aggregation

Procedia PDF Downloads 374

Authors: Dekie Rawung, Abdul L. Abadi, Toto Himawan, Siegfried Berhimpon

Abstract:

A case study on consumer' knowledge, attitude, and behavior on food safety issue related to pesticide residues in cabbage was conducted in the area of Manado and Tomohon city, North Sulawesi. A sample of 150 consumers were selected randomly on location (open market and supermarket) while they were purchasing vegetables. The data on consumers’ perception, knowledge, attitude and behavior on food safety issue regarding pesticide residues were collected using a 5-point, two-section Likert-Scale questionnaire, and the relationship of knowledge, attitude, and behavior on food safety issues were analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). It was found that, among many food safety issues, the illegal, non-food chemical preservatives were considered the most important one (by more than 35% respondents), followed by high cholesterol content and textile coloring chemical (> 27% respondents). The pesticide residues issue was only in the 4th place. The same results were seen on the issue of quality factors that determine the product selection during purchasing. The pesticide-free and organic products labels were considered much less important quality factors as compared with freshness and nutrition value which were considered the most and the second most important quality factors (almost 65% of respondents). SEM analysis showed that only knowledge and attitude on food safety that had the significant relation (coefficient value of 0.38), whereas those with behaviors were not significant.

Keywords: cabbage, consumer, food safety, pesticide residues

Procedia PDF Downloads 421