Search results for: bit error probability

Authors: Joshua Paul Steimel, Michael Pappas, Ethan Hall

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Particle-particle interactions are critical in determining the state of an active matter system. Unique and ubiquitous non-equilibrium behavior like swarming, vortexing, spiraling, and much more is governed by interactions between active units or particles. In hybrid active-passive matter systems, the attraction between spinning active units in a 2D monolayer of passive particles is controlled by the mechanical behavior of the passive monolayer. We demonstrate here that the range and dynamics of this attraction can be controlled by changing the composition of the passive monolayer by adding dopant passive particles. These dopant passive particles effectively pin the movement of dislocation motion in the passive media and reduce the probability of defect motion required to erode the bridge of passive particles between active spinners, thus reducing the range of attraction. Additionally, by adding an out of plane component to the magnetic moment and creating a top-like motion a short range repulsion emerges between the top-like particle. At inter-top distances less than four particle diameters apart, the tops repel but beyond that, distance attract up to 13 particle diameters apart. The tops were also able to locally and transiently anneal the passive monolayer. Thus we demonstrate that by tuning several parameters of the hybrid active matter system, one can observe very different emergent behavior.

Keywords: active matter, colloids, ferromagnetic, annealing

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Authors: Tin Thongthammachart, Wanida Jinsart

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Atmospheric particulate matter particles with a diameter less than 10 microns (PM₁₀) and less than 2.5 microns (PM₂.₅) have adverse health effect. The impact from PM was studied from both health and regulatory perspective. Ambient PM data was collected over ten years in Bangkok and vicinity areas of Thailand from 2007 to 2017. Statistical models were used to forecast PM concentrations from 2018 to 2020. Monitoring monthly data averaged concentration of PM₁₀ and PM₂.₅ were used as input to forecast the monthly average concentration of PM. The forecasting results were validated by root means square error (RMSE). The predicted results were used to determine hazard risk for the carcinogenic disease. The health risk values were interpolated with GIS with ordinary kriging technique to create hazard maps in Bangkok and vicinity area. GIS-based maps illustrated the variability of PM distribution and high-risk locations. These evaluated results could support national policy for the sake of human health.

Keywords: PM₁₀, PM₂.₅, statistical models, atmospheric particulate matter

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Authors: Clarinda V. Nhangumbe, Ercília Sousa

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Weather Derivatives are financial instruments used to cover non-catastrophic weather events and can be expressed in the form of standard or plain vanilla products, structured or exotics products. The underlying asset, in this case, is the weather index, such as temperature, rainfall, humidity, wind, and snowfall. The complexity of the Weather Derivatives structure shows the weakness of the Black Scholes framework. Therefore, under the risk-neutral probability measure, the option price of a weather contract can be given as a unique solution of a two-dimensional partial differential equation (parabolic in one direction and hyperbolic in other directions), with an initial condition and subjected to adequate boundary conditions. To calculate the price of the option, one can use numerical methods such as the Monte Carlo simulations and implicit finite difference schemes conjugated with Semi-Lagrangian methods. This paper is proposed two explicit methods, namely, first-order upwind in the hyperbolic direction combined with Lax-Wendroff in the parabolic direction and first-order upwind in the hyperbolic direction combined with second-order upwind in the parabolic direction. One of the advantages of these methods is the fact that they take into consideration the boundary conditions obtained from the financial interpretation and deal efficiently with the different choices of the convection coefficients.

Keywords: incomplete markets, numerical methods, partial differential equations, stochastic process, weather derivatives

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Authors: Nina N. Serdar, Jelena R. Pejović

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This paper presents seismic risk assessment of two bridge structure, based on the probabilistic performance-based seismic assessment methodology. Both investigated bridges are tree span continuous RC curved bridges with the difference in column shapes. First bridge (type A) has a wall-type pier and second (type B) has a two-column bent with circular columns. Bridges are designed according to European standards: EN 1991-2, EN1992-1-1 and EN 1998-2. Aim of the performed analysis is to compare seismic behavior of these two structures and to detect the influence of column shapes on the seismic response. Seismic risk assessment is carried out by obtaining demand fragility curves. Non-linear model was constructed and time-history analysis was performed using thirty five pairs of horizontal ground motions selected to match site specific hazard. In performance based analysis, peak column drift ratio (CDR) was selected as engineering demand parameter (EDP). For seismic intensity measure (IM) spectral displacement was selected. Demand fragility curves that give probability of exceedance of certain value for chosen EDP were constructed and based on them conclusions were made.

Keywords: RC curved bridge, demand fragility curve, wall type column, nonlinear time-history analysis, circular column

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Authors: Shaban Aly, Ali Al-Qahtani, Houari B. Khenous

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Synchronization is an important phenomenon commonly observed in nature. A system of periodically forced complex Duffings oscillators was introduced and shown to display chaotic behavior and possess strange attractors. Such complex oscillators appear in many problems of physics and engineering, as, for example, nonlinear optics, deep-water wave theory, plasma physics and bimolecular dynamics. In this paper, we study the remarkable phenomenon of chaotic synchronization on these oscillator systems, using impulsive synchronization techniques. We derive analytical expressions for impulsive control functions and show that the dynamics of error evolution is globally stable, by constructing appropriate Lyapunov functions. This means that, for a relatively large set initial conditions, the differences between the drive and response systems vanish exponentially and synchronization is achieved. Numerical results are obtained to test the validity of the analytical expressions and illustrate the efficiency of these techniques for inducing chaos synchronization in our nonlinear oscillators.

Keywords: complex nonlinear oscillators, impulsive synchronization, chaotic systems, global exponential synchronization

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Authors: Christoph Linse, Thomas Martinetz

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Recent findings have shown that Neural Networks generalize also in over-parametrized regimes with zero training error. This is surprising, since it is completely against traditional machine learning wisdom. In our empirical study we fortify these findings in the domain of fine-grained image classification. We show that very large Convolutional Neural Networks with millions of weights do learn with only a handful of training samples and without image augmentation, explicit regularization or pretraining. We train the architectures ResNet018, ResNet101 and VGG19 on subsets of the difficult benchmark datasets Caltech101, CUB_200_2011, FGVCAircraft, Flowers102 and StanfordCars with 100 classes and more, perform a comprehensive comparative study and draw implications for the practical application of CNNs. Finally, we show that VGG19 with 140 million weights learns to distinguish airplanes and motorbikes with up to 95% accuracy using only 20 training samples per class.

Keywords: convolutional neural networks, fine-grained image classification, generalization, image recognition, over-parameterized, small data sets

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Authors: Hasan Farahneh, Xavier Fernando

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Leaky Feeder (LF) has been a proven technology for many decades and its promises broadband wireless access in short range but being overlooked until now. The LF is a natural MIMO transceiver ideal for micro and pico cells. In this work, the LF is considered as a linear antenna array MultiInput-Single-Output (MISO) and derive the average bit error rate (BER) in Rayleigh fading channel considering ideal and independent paths (iid) which consider there is no correlation and mutual coupling between transmit antennas (slots) or receiver antenna considering QPSK modulation with imperfect phase estimation. We consider maximal ratio transmission (MRT) at the transmit end and maximal ratio combining (MRC) at the receiving end. Analytical expressions are derived for the BER with radiating cable transmitters. The effects of slot spacing and carrier frequency on the BER are also studied. Numerical evaluations show the radiating cable transmitter offer much lower BER than a single antenna transmitter with same SNR.

Keywords: leaky feeder, BER, QPSK, rayleigh fading, channel gain, phase mismatch

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Authors: Ramesh Rajagopalan, Adam Dahlstrom

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Noise removal techniques play a vital role in the performance of electrocardiographic (ECG) signal processing systems. ECG signals can be corrupted by various kinds of noise such as baseline wander noise, electromyographic interference, and power-line interference. One of the significant challenges in ECG signal processing is the degradation caused by additive 50 or 60 Hz power-line interference. This work investigates the removal of power line interference and suppression of transient response for filtering noise corrupted ECG signals. We demonstrate the effectiveness of Infinite Impulse Response (IIR) notch filter with time varying pole radius for improving the transient behavior. The temporary change in the pole radius of the filter diminishes the transient behavior. Simulation results show that the proposed IIR filter with time varying pole radius outperforms traditional IIR notch filters in terms of mean square error and transient suppression.

Keywords: notch filter, ECG, transient, pole radius

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Authors: R. Gharari, N. Kojouri, R. Hosseini Aghdam, E. Alibeigi, B. Salmasian

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In this research, the WWER1000/V446 (a PWR Russian type reactor) is chosen as the case study. It is assumed that radioactive materials that release into the environment are more than allowable limit due to a complete failure of the ventilation system (reactor stack). In the following, the HOTSPOT and the RASCAL computational codes have been used and coupled with a developed program using MATLAB software to evaluate Total effective dose equivalent (TEDE) and cancer risk according to the BEIR equations for various human organs. In addition, effects of the containment spray system and climate conditions on the TEDE have been investigated. According to the obtained results, there is an inverse correlation between the received dose and the wind speed; the amount of the TEDE for wind speed 2 m/s and is more than wind speed for 14 m/s during the class A of the climate (2.168 and 0.444 mSv, respectively). Also, containment spray system can effect and reduce the amount of the fission products and TEDE. Furthermore, the probability of the cancer risk for women is more than men, and for children is more than adults. In addition, a specific emergency zonal planning is proposed. Results are promising in which the site selection of the WWER1000/V446 were considered safe for the public in this situation.

Keywords: TEDE, total effective dose equivalent, RASCAL and HOTSPOT codes, BEIR equations, cancer risk

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Authors: Saleh Alagla, Murya Habbash

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The paper investigates whether the board of directors plays a monitoring role or not in CEO compensation for the UK firms during the eve of the recent financial crisis, 2004-2008. The use of heteroscedastic and autocorrelated error consistent estimation of the panel data shows, surprisingly, that four board characteristics variables are found to play a significant role in increasing the level of CEO compensation. This insightful result would suggest evidence of the managerial power theory in general and the cronyism hypothesis in particular. Moreover, the interesting evidence supporting managerial power perspective is that CEO-Chair duality reduces long-term compensation while increasing short-term compensation, thus suggesting that CEOs are risk averse who prefer short-term compensation to long-term compensation. Finally, consistent with the agency perspective board size is found to increase all compensation variables as expected.

Keywords: corporate governance, CEO compensation, board of directors, internal governance mechanisms, agency theory, managerial power theory, cronyism hypothesis

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Authors: Pandega Gama Mahardika, Muhammad Rifki Al Iksan, Datuk Fachrul Razy

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Oil And Gas Tanker Driver is a high-risk jobdesc. drivers drive with sleep circadian rhythm disturbances. Therefore, FAMOUS (Fatigue Management Online Ultimate System) conducted a diagnostic test on the effectiveness and accuracy of the Psychomotor vigilance test (PVT) in the field to capture the fatigue level of Oil And Gas Tanker Driver. Fatigue examination with the PVP method for 3 minutes using the Pertamina FAMOUS system (Fatigue Management Online Ultimate System). The research sample was Oil And Gas Tanker Driver Elnusa petrofin drivers as many as 2205 people. PVT is categorical data that states a driver has a low or high fatigue level. The quality of sleep at home was recorded by filling in a score of 1 = not well, 2 = not well, 3 = well, per person. A total of 1852 (84%) driver had a low fatigue level, while 353 (16%) driver had a high fatigue level. Poor sleep quality was experienced by 68 (79%) driver who had a high fatigue level. Oil And Gas Tanker Driver who slept soundly at home as many as 1804 (87%) had a low fatigue level. The correlation coefficient of sleep quality home and fatigue level is significant because it shows a probability value of 0.00 (p <5%). Fatigue level can be diagnosed through examining sleep quality, using FAMOUS Program for occupational medicine, particularly in the oil and gas sector.

Keywords: psychomotor vigilance test, fatigue, sleep, oil and gas tanker driver drivers, pertamina FAMOUS

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Authors: Dhanuj M. Gandikota

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Sensor-derived three-dimensional (3D) point clouds of trees are invaluable in remote sensing analysis for the accurate measurement of key structural metrics, bio-inventory values, spatial planning/visualization, and ecological modeling. Machine learning (ML) holds the potential in addressing the restrictive tradeoffs in cost, spatial coverage, resolution, and information gain that exist in current point cloud sensing methods. Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) remains the highest fidelity source of both canopy and below-canopy structural features, but usage is limited in both coverage and cost, requiring manual deployment to map out large, forested areas. While aerial laser scanning (ALS) remains a reliable avenue of LIDAR active remote sensing, ALS is also cost-restrictive in deployment methods. Space-borne photogrammetry from high-resolution satellite constellations is an avenue of passive remote sensing with promising viability in research for the accurate construction of vegetation 3-D point clouds. It provides both the lowest comparative cost and the largest spatial coverage across remote sensing methods. However, both space-borne photogrammetry and ALS demonstrate technical limitations in the capture of valuable below-canopy point cloud data. Looking to minimize these tradeoffs, we explored a class of powerful ML algorithms called Deep Learning (DL) that show promise in recent research on 3-D point cloud reconstruction and interpolation. Our research details the efficacy of applying these DL techniques to reconstruct accurate below-canopy point clouds from space-borne and aerial remote sensing through learned patterns of tree species fractal symmetry properties and the supplementation of locally sourced bio-inventory metrics. From our dataset, consisting of tree point clouds obtained from TLS, we deconstructed the point clouds of each tree into those that would be obtained through ALS and satellite photogrammetry of varying resolutions. We fed this ALS/satellite point cloud dataset, along with the simulated local bio-inventory metrics, into the DL point cloud reconstruction architectures to generate the full 3-D tree point clouds (the truth values are denoted by the full TLS tree point clouds containing the below-canopy information). Point cloud reconstruction accuracy was validated both through the measurement of error from the original TLS point clouds as well as the error of extraction of key structural metrics, such as crown base height, diameter above root crown, and leaf/wood volume. The results of this research additionally demonstrate the supplemental performance gain of using minimum locally sourced bio-inventory metric information as an input in ML systems to reach specified accuracy thresholds of tree point cloud reconstruction. This research provides insight into methods for the rapid, cost-effective, and accurate construction of below-canopy tree 3-D point clouds, as well as the supported potential of ML and DL to learn complex, unmodeled patterns of fractal tree growth symmetry.

Keywords: deep learning, machine learning, satellite, photogrammetry, aerial laser scanning, terrestrial laser scanning, point cloud, fractal symmetry

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Authors: Xiaohan Bookman, Xiaoyan Zhu

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Margin-Based Principle has been proposed for a long time, it has been proved that this principle could reduce the structural risk and improve the performance in both theoretical and practical aspects. Meanwhile, feed-forward neural network is a traditional classifier, which is very hot at present with a deeper architecture. However, the training algorithm of feed-forward neural network is developed and generated from Widrow-Hoff Principle that means to minimize the squared error. In this paper, we propose a new training algorithm for feed-forward neural networks based on Margin-Based Principle, which could effectively promote the accuracy and generalization ability of neural network classifiers with less labeled samples and flexible network. We have conducted experiments on four UCI open data sets and achieved good results as expected. In conclusion, our model could handle more sparse labeled and more high-dimension data set in a high accuracy while modification from old ANN method to our method is easy and almost free of work.

Keywords: Max-Margin Principle, Feed-Forward Neural Network, classifier, structural risk

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Authors: Abdelhamid Louliej, Younes Jabrane

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Satellites are becoming indispensable assets to fifth-generation (5G) new radio architecture, complementing wireless and terrestrial communication links. The combination of satellites and 5G architecture allows consumers to access all next-generation services anytime, anywhere, including scenarios, like traveling to remote areas (without coverage). Nevertheless, this solution faces several challenges, such as a significant propagation delay, Doppler frequency shift, and high Peak-to-Average Power Ratio (PAPR), causing signal distortion due to the non-linear saturation of the High-Power Amplifier (HPA). To compensate for HPA non-linearity in 5G satellite transmission, an efficient pre-distorter scheme using Neural Networks (NN) is proposed. To assess the proposed NN pre-distorter, two types of HPA were investigated: Travelling Wave Tube Amplifier (TWTA) and Solid-State Power Amplifier (SSPA). The results show that the NN pre-distorter design presents EVM improvement by 95.26%. NMSE and ACPR were reduced by -43,66 dB and 24.56 dBm, respectively. Moreover, the system suffers no degradation of the Bit Error Rate (BER) for TWTA and SSPA amplifiers.

Keywords: satellites, 5G, neural networks, HPA, TWTA, SSPA, EVM, NMSE, ACPR

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Authors: P. Mambanga, Goon, L. O. Amusa

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The purpose of the study was to investigate the socio-cultural factors hindering sport participation among female students in the Centre for Biokinetics, Recreation and Sport Science, University of Venda. A descriptive survey of 100 female student selected by simple random sampling was used and utilises the close ended questionnaire designed in a likert format was use for data collection. Face and content validity was employed in which the supervisor went through the instrument and correct and accept it thus checking the validity of the instrument. The test-retest approach was used to test the reliability of the instrument. Ethical considerations were ensured and confidentiality respected. Data was collected and presented in tables and results interpreted. Chi square which is a measure of non-parametric investigation was employed in order to analyse the observed and expected scores, with the probability value was set at 0.05 levels of significance on a two-tailed test of the hypotheses formulated for the study. Findings of the study established significant socio-cultural factors that hinder female sport participation among female students in the Centre for Biokinetics, Recreation and Sport Science. The study concluded that the low level participation of female students at the University of Venda might be as a result of socio-cultural factors.

Keywords: female students, sport participation, University of Venda, biokinetic

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Authors: K. Assis, K. P. Chong, A. S. Idris, C. M. Ho

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Oil palm or Elaeis guineensis is considered as the golden crop in Malaysia. But oil palm industry in this country is now facing with the most devastating disease called as Ganoderma Basal Stem Rot disease. The objective of this paper is to analyze the economic loss due to this disease. There were three commercial oil palm sites selected for collecting the required data for economic analysis. Yield parameter used to measure the loss was the total weight of fresh fruit bunch in six months. The predictors include disease severity, change in disease severity, number of infected neighbor palms, age of palm, planting generation, topography, and first order interaction variables. The estimation model of yield loss was identified by using backward elimination based regression method. Diagnostic checking was conducted on the residual of the best yield loss model. The value of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was used to measure the forecast performance of the model. The best yield loss model was then used to estimate the economic loss by using the current monthly price of fresh fruit bunch at mill gate.

Keywords: ganoderma, oil palm, regression model, yield loss, economic loss

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Authors: Flavio Cordeiro Fontanella, Asla Medeiros e Sá, Moacyr Alvim Horta Barbosa da Silva

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In the present work, we analyse the performance of football results forecasting models. In order to do so, we have performed the data collection from eight different forecasting models during the 2021 Brazilian football season. First, we guide the analysis through visual representations of the data, designed to highlight the most prominent features and enhance the interpretation of differences and similarities between the models. We propose using a 2-simplex triangle to investigate visual patterns from the results forecasting models. Next, we compute the expected points for every team playing in the championship and compare them to the final league standings, revealing interesting contrasts between actual to expected performances. Then, we evaluate forecasts’ accuracy using the Ranked Probability Score (RPS); models comparison accounts for tiny scale differences that may become consistent in time. Finally, we observe that the Wisdom of Crowds principle can be appropriately applied in the context, driving into a discussion of results forecasts usage in practice. This paper’s primary goal is to encourage football forecasts’ performance discussion. We hope to accomplish it by presenting appropriate criteria and easy-to-understand visual representations that can point out the relevant factors of the subject.

Keywords: accuracy evaluation, Brazilian championship, football results forecasts, forecasting models, visual analysis

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Authors: Santiago Montoya-Ospina, Raúl E. Jiménez-Mejía, Rosa Elvira Correa Gutiérrez

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An experimental methodology is proposed for determining hemi-anechoic characteristics of an engineering acoustic room built at the facilities of Universidad Nacional de Colombia to evaluate the free-field conditions inside the chamber. Experimental results were compared with theoretical ones in both, the source and the sound propagation inside the chamber. Acoustic source was modeled by using monopole radiation pattern from punctual sources and the image method was considered for dealing with the reflective plane of the room, that means, the floor without insulation. Finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) method was implemented to calculate the sound pressure value at every spatial point of the chamber. Comparison between theoretical and experimental data yields to minimum error, giving satisfactory results for the hemi-anechoic characterization of the chamber.

Keywords: acoustic impedance, finite-difference time-domain, hemi-anechoic characterization

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Authors: Jurica Hižak

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Getting to know the agents, i.e., identifying the free riders in a population, can be considered one of the main challenges in establishing cooperation. An ordinary memory-one agent such as Tit-for-tat may learn “who is who” in the population through direct interactions. Past experiences serve them as a landmark to know with whom to cooperate and against whom to retaliate in the next encounter. However, this kind of learning is risky and expensive. A cheaper and less painful way to detect free riders may be achieved by gossiping. For this reason, as part of this research, a special type of Tit-for-tat agent was designed – a “Gossip-Tit-for-tat” agent that can share data with other agents of its kind. The performances of both strategies, ordinary Tit-for-tat and Gossip-Tit-for-tat, against Always-defect have been compared in the finite-game framework of the Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma via the Moran process. Agents were able to move in a random-walk fashion, and they were programmed to play Prisoner’s Dilemma each time they met. Moreover, at each step, one randomly selected individual was eliminated, and one individual was reproduced in accordance with the Moran process of selection. In this way, the size of the population always remained the same. Agents were selected for reproduction via the roulette wheel rule, i.e., proportionally to the relative fitness of the strategy. The absorption probability was calculated after the population had been absorbed completely by cooperators, which means that all the states have been occupied and all of the transition probabilities have been determined. It was shown that gossip increases absorption probabilities and therefore enhances the evolution of cooperation in the population.

Keywords: cooperation, gossip, indirect reciprocity, Moran process, prisoner’s dilemma, tit-for-tat

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Authors: Ghandehari Motlagh, Mohammad

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Purpose: We tried to find the most common etiologies for anisometropia in pre-op cataract cases: axial or refractive. Methods: In this cross-sectional study ,41 pre-op cataract eyes with more than 0.33 difference between axial lengths of 2 eyes were enrolled.Considered for each 1mm difference between axial lengths in long eyes( AXL more than 25):1.75-2.00 D of anisometropia, for normal eyes(AXL: 22- 25):2.50D and for short eyes (AXL less than 22):3.50-3.75 D as axial anisometropia. If there are more or lesser anisometropia, we recorded as refractive anisometropia. Results: Average of anisometropia :4.24 D, prevalence of PK or LK :1 (2.38%), kc:1(2.38%), glaucoma surgery: 1(2.38%), and pseudophakic status of the opposite eye 8(19.04%). Prevalence of axial anisometropia:21 (52.4%) and refractive anisometropia 20(47.6%).Then on basis of this study we can rely on the patient’s refraction exactly before phaco for evaluation of axial length differences between the 2 eyes, because most of the anisometropias are axial. Conclusion: In most cases, cataract does not induce significant change in refractive error (secondary myopia) and AXL difference between the 2 eyes are correlated with anisometropia.so it can be used for cataract patient’s ocular biometry evaluation. Pre-cataract refraction is a valuable variable should be measured and recorded in routin eye examination.

Keywords: ocular axial length, anisometropia, cataract, ophthalmology and optometry

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Authors: Vijay Pal Singh, Yogesh Chandra Kotiyal

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Structures are a combination of various load carrying members which transfer the loads to the foundation from the superstructure safely. At the design stage, the loading of the structure is defined and appropriate material choices are made based upon their properties, mainly related to strength. The strength of materials kept on reducing with time because of many factors like environmental exposure and deformation caused by unpredictable external loads. Hence, to predict the strength of materials used in structures, various techniques are used. Among these techniques, Non-Destructive Techniques (NDT) are the one that can be used to predict the strength without damaging the structure. In the present study, the compressive strength of concrete has been predicted using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The predicted strength was compared with the experimentally obtained actual compressive strength of concrete and equations were developed for different models. A good co-relation has been obtained between the predicted strength by these models and experimental values. Further, the co-relation has been developed using two NDT techniques for prediction of strength by regression analysis. It was found that the percentage error has been reduced between the predicted strength by using combined techniques in place of single techniques.

Keywords: rebound, ultra-sonic pulse, penetration, ANN, NDT, regression

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Authors: Riznaldi Akbar

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In this study, we compared the performance of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model with back-propagation algorithm in correctly predicting in-sample and out-of-sample external debt crisis in Indonesia. We found that exchange rate, foreign reserves, and exports are the major determinants to experiencing external debt crisis. The ANN in-sample performance provides relatively superior results. The ANN model is able to classify correctly crisis of 89.12 per cent with reasonably low false alarms of 7.01 per cent. In out-of-sample, the prediction performance fairly deteriorates compared to their in-sample performances. It could be explained as the ANN model tends to over-fit the data in the in-sample, but it could not fit the out-of-sample very well. The 10-fold cross-validation has been used to improve the out-of-sample prediction accuracy. The results also offer policy implications. The out-of-sample performance could be very sensitive to the size of the samples, as it could yield a higher total misclassification error and lower prediction accuracy. The ANN model could be used to identify past crisis episodes with some accuracy, but predicting crisis outside the estimation sample is much more challenging because of the presence of uncertainty.

Keywords: debt crisis, external debt, artificial neural network, ANN

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Authors: Phawichsak Prapassornpitaya, Wanida Jinsart

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Daily monitoring PM₁₀ and PM₂.₅ data from 2007 to 2017 were analyzed to provide baseline data for prediction of the air pollution in Bangkok in the period of 2018 -2020. Two statistical models, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA) were used to evaluate the trends of pollutions. The prediction concentrations were tested by root means square error (RMSE) and index of agreement (IOA). This evaluation of the traffic PM₂.₅ and PM₁₀ were studied in association with the regulatory control and emission standard changes. The emission factors of particulate matter from diesel vehicles were decreased when applied higher number of euro standard. The trends of ambient air pollutions were expected to decrease. However, the Bangkok smog episode in February 2018 with temperature inversion caused high concentration of PM₂.₅ in the air environment of Bangkok. The impact of traffic pollutants was depended upon the emission sources, temperature variations, and metrological conditions.

Keywords: fine particulate matter, ARIMA, RMSE, Bangkok

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Authors: Vineetha Bettaiah, Heggere S. Ranganath

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This paper presents a Hierarchical Piecewise Linear Approximation (HPLA) for the representation of time series data in which the time series is treated as a curve in the time-amplitude image space. The curve is partitioned into segments by choosing perceptually important points as break points. Each segment between adjacent break points is recursively partitioned into two segments at the best point or midpoint until the error between the approximating line and the original curve becomes less than a pre-specified threshold. The HPLA representation achieves dimensionality reduction while preserving prominent local features and general shape of time series. The representation permits course-fine processing at different levels of details, allows flexible definition of similarity based on mathematical measures or general time series shape, and supports time series data mining operations including query by content, clustering and classification based on whole or subsequence similarity.

Keywords: data mining, dimensionality reduction, piecewise linear representation, time series representation

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Authors: Surinder Deswal, Mahesh Pal

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The paper investigates the potential of support vector machines based regression approach to model the mass transfer capacity of multiple plunging jets, both vertical (θ = 90°) and inclined (θ = 60°). The data set used in this study consists of four input parameters with a total of eighty eight cases. For testing, tenfold cross validation was used. Correlation coefficient values of 0.971 and 0.981 (root mean square error values of 0.0025 and 0.0020) were achieved by using polynomial and radial basis kernel functions based support vector regression respectively. Results suggest an improved performance by radial basis function in comparison to polynomial kernel based support vector machines. The estimated overall mass transfer coefficient, by both the kernel functions, is in good agreement with actual experimental values (within a scatter of ±15 %); thereby suggesting the utility of support vector machines based regression approach.

Keywords: mass transfer, multiple plunging jets, support vector machines, ecological sciences

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Authors: Moez ul Hassan, Bushra Noman, Sarmad Hameed, Shahab Mehmood, Asma Bashir

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The importance of Noble prize winning “Patch Clamp Technique” is well documented. However, Patch Clamp Technique is very expensive and hence hinders research in developing countries. In this paper, detection, processing and recording of ultra low current from induced cells by using transimpedence amplifier is described. The sensitivity of the proposed amplifier is in the range of femto amperes (fA). Capacitive-feedback is used with active load to obtain a 20MΩ transimpedance gain. The challenging task in designing includes achieving adequate performance in gain, noise immunity and stability. The circuit designed by the authors was able to measure current in the rangeof 300fA to 100pA. Adequate performance shown by the amplifier with different input current and outcome result was found to be within the acceptable error range. Results were recorded using LabVIEW 8.5®for further research.

Keywords: drug discovery, ionic current, operational amplifier, patch clamp

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Authors: Mohammad S. Rouhi, Magdalena Juntikka

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Processing of polymer fiber composites has a remarkable influence on their mechanical performance. These mechanical properties are even more influenced when using recycled reinforcement. Therefore, we place particular attention on the evaluation of micromechanical models to estimate the mechanical properties and compare them against the experimental results of the manufactured composites. For the manufacturing process, an epoxy matrix and carbon fiber production cut-offs as reinforcing material are incorporated using a vacuum infusion process. In addition, continuous textile reinforcement in combination with the epoxy matrix is used as reference material to evaluate the kick-down in mechanical performance of the recycled composite. The experimental results show less degradation of the composite stiffness compared to the strength properties. Observations from the modeling also show the same trend as the error between the theoretical and experimental results is lower for stiffness comparisons than the strength calculations. Yet still, good mechanical performance for specific applications can be expected from these materials.

Keywords: composite recycling, carbon fibers, mechanical properties, micromechanics

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Authors: Yina F. Muñoz, Alexander Paz, Hanns De La Fuente-Mella, Joaquin V. Fariña, Guilherme M. Sales

Abstract:

The primary approach for estimating bridge deterioration uses Markov-chain models and regression analysis. Traditional Markov models have problems in estimating the required transition probabilities when a small sample size is used. Often, reliable bridge data have not been taken over large periods, thus large data sets may not be available. This study presents an important change to the traditional approach by using the Small Data Method to estimate transition probabilities. The results illustrate that the Small Data Method and traditional approach both provide similar estimates; however, the former method provides results that are more conservative. That is, Small Data Method provided slightly lower than expected bridge condition ratings compared with the traditional approach. Considering that bridges are critical infrastructures, the Small Data Method, which uses more information and provides more conservative estimates, may be more appropriate when the available sample size is small. In addition, regression analysis was used to calculate bridge deterioration. Condition ratings were determined for bridge groups, and the best regression model was selected for each group. The results obtained were very similar to those obtained when using Markov chains; however, it is desirable to use more data for better results.

Keywords: concrete bridges, deterioration, Markov chains, probability matrix

Procedia PDF Downloads 326

Authors: Kopila Shrestha

Abstract:

Adolescent sexual reproductive health is one of the most important issues in the world. Reproductive ability is taking place at an earlier age and adolescents are indulging in risk taking behaviors day by day. A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted in Kathmandu valley to assess the knowledge regarding sexual and reproductive health among adolescent. Total of 200 respondents were selected through non-probability convenient sampling technique. Self-administered written questionnaires using semi-structured questions were used. The collected data were analyzed by using descriptive statistics such as frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation and inferential statistics such as Chi-square test. The findings revealed that most of the respondents had adequate knowledge regarding transmission and protection of HIV/AIDs and STIs but still some respondents had a misconception regarding it. Few respondents had knowledge regarding legal age for marriage and the minimum age for first child bearing. The statistical analysis revealed that the total mean knowledge score with standard deviation was 45.02±8.674. Nearly half of the respondents (49.5%) had a moderate level of knowledge, followed by an inadequate level of knowledge 29.5% and adequate level of knowledge 21.0% regarding sexual and reproductive health. There was significant association of level of knowledge with area of residence (p-value .002) but no association with age (p-value .067), sex (p-value .999), religion (p-value .082) and ethnicity (p-value .114). Nearly half of the participants possess some knowledge about sexual and reproductive health but still effective educational intervention is required in higher secondary school to encourage more sensible and healthy behaviour.

Keywords: adolescents, higher secondary school, knowledge, sexual and reproductive health

Procedia PDF Downloads 264

Authors: Noora Al-Shanfari, M. Mazharul Islam

Abstract:

The cumulative incidence function (CIF) is a fundamental approach for analyzing survival data in the presence of competing risks, which estimates the marginal probability for each competing event. Parametric modeling of CIF has the advantage of fitting various shapes of CIF and estimates the impact of covariates with maximum efficiency. To calculate the total CIF's covariate influence using a parametric model., it is essential to parametrize the baseline of the CIF. As the CIF is an improper function by nature, it is necessary to utilize an improper distribution when applying parametric models. The Gompertz distribution, which is an improper distribution, is limited in its applicability as it only accounts for monotone hazard shapes. The generalized Gompertz distribution, however, can adapt to a wider range of hazard shapes, including unimodal, bathtub, and monotonic increasing or decreasing hazard shapes. In this paper, the generalized Gompertz distribution is used to parametrize the baseline of the CIF, and the parameters of the proposed model are estimated using the maximum likelihood approach. The proposed model is compared with the existing Gompertz model using the Akaike information criterion. Appropriate statistical test procedures and model-fitting criteria will be used to test the adequacy of the model. Both models are applied to the ‘colon’ dataset, which is available in the “biostat3” package in R.

Keywords: competing risks, cumulative incidence function, improper distribution, parametric modeling, survival analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 74