Search results for: factors influencing cost
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 16575

Search results for: factors influencing cost

585 Leadership and Management Strategies of Sports Administrator in Asia

Authors: Mark Christian Inductivo Siwa, Jesrelle Ormoc Bontuyan

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This study was conducted in selected tertiary schools in selected universities in Asian countries such as Philippines, Thailand, and China, which are the top performing countries in Southeast Asian Games or SEA Games and Asian School Games (ASG), also known as the Youth SEA Games and Asian Games. The respondents of the study are sports administrators/directors and coaches in selected Southeast Asian countries such as Philippines, Thailand, and in Asia which is China. This study has generated a progressive sports operational model of Sports Leadership and Management in Selected Universities in Asia. This study utilized mixed-method research. It is a methodology for conducting research that involves collecting, analyzing and integrating quantitative (e.g., experiments, surveys) and qualitative (e.g., focus groups, interviews) research. This approach to research is used to provide integration for a better understanding of the research problem than either of each alone. This study particularly employed the explanatory sequential design of mixed methods, which involved two phases: the quantitative phase, which involves the collection and analysis of quantitative data, followed by the qualitative phase, which involves the collection and analysis of qualitative data. This study will prioritize the quantitative data and the findings will be followed up during the interpretation phase in the qualitative data of the study. The qualitative data help explain or build upon initial quantitative results. In phase I, the researcher began with the collection and analysis of the quantitative data. His investigation gave greater emphasis on the quantitative methods, particularly employed surveys with the coaches and sports directors of the three selected universities in Asia. In Phase II, the researcher subsequently collected and analyzed the qualitative data obtained through an interview with the sports directors to follow from or connect to the results of the quantitative phase. This study followed the data analysis spiral so that the researcher could follow – up or explain the quantitative results. The researcher engaged in the process of moving in analytic circles. Based on the school's mission and vision, the sports leadership and management consistently followed the key factors to take into account when leading the organization and managing the process in sports leadership and management when formulating objectives/goals, budget, equipment care and maintenance, facilities, training matrix, and consideration. Also, sports management demonstrates the need for development in terms of the upkeep and care of equipment as well as athlete funding. The development of goals or sports management goals, sports facilities and equipment, as well as improvements in demonstrating training and consideration, and incentives, should also include a maintenance plan. The study concluded with a progressive sports operational model that was created based on the result of the study.

Keywords: sports leadership and management, formulating objectives, budget, equipment care and maintenance, training, consideration, incentives, progressive sports operational model

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584 Shared Vision System Support for Maintenance Tasks of Wind Turbines

Authors: Buket Celik Ünal, Onur Ünal

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Communication is the most challenging part of maintenance operations. Communication between expert and fieldworker is crucial for effective maintenance and this also affects the safety of the fieldworkers. To support a machine user in a remote collaborative physical task, both, a mobile and a stationary device are needed. Such a system is called a shared vision system and the system supports two people to solve a problem from different places. This system reduces the errors and provides a reliable support for qualified and less qualified users. Through this research, it was aimed to validate the effectiveness of using a shared vision system to facilitate communication between on-site workers and those issuing instructions regarding maintenance or inspection works over long distances. The system is designed with head-worn display which is called a shared vision system. As a part of this study, a substitute system is used and implemented by using a shared vision system for maintenance operation. The benefits of the use of a shared vision system are analyzed and results are adapted to the wind turbines to improve the occupational safety and health for maintenance technicians. The motivation for the research effort in this study can be summarized in the following research questions: -How can expert support technician over long distances during maintenance operation? -What are the advantages of using a shared vision system? Experience from the experiment shows that using a shared vision system is an advantage for both electrical and mechanical system failures. Results support that the shared vision system can be used for wind turbine maintenance and repair tasks. Because wind turbine generator/gearbox and the substitute system have similar failures. Electrical failures, such as voltage irregularities, wiring failures and mechanical failures, such as alignment, vibration, over-speed conditions are the common and similar failures for both. Furthermore, it was analyzed the effectiveness of the shared vision system by using a smart glasses in connection with the maintenance task performed by a substitute system under four different circumstances, namely by using a shared vision system, an audio communication, a smartphone and by yourself condition. A suitable method for determining dependencies between factors measured in Chi Square Test, and Chi Square Test for Independence measured for determining a relationship between two qualitative variables and finally Mann Whitney U Test is used to compare any two data sets. While based on this experiment, no relation was found between the results and the gender. Participants` responses confirmed that the shared vision system is efficient and helpful for maintenance operations. From the results of the research, there was a statistically significant difference in the average time taken by subjects on works using a shared vision system under the other conditions. Additionally, this study confirmed that a shared vision system provides reduction in time to diagnose and resolve maintenance issues, reduction in diagnosis errors, reduced travel costs for experts, and increased reliability in service.

Keywords: communication support, maintenance and inspection tasks, occupational health and safety, shared vision system

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583 Multimodal Analysis of News Magazines' Front-Page Portrayals of the US, Germany, China, and Russia

Authors: Alena Radina

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On the global stage, national image is shaped by historical memory of wars and alliances, government ideology and particularly media stereotypes which represent countries in positive or negative ways. News magazine covers are a key site for national representation. The object of analysis in this paper is the portrayals of the US, Germany, China, and Russia in the front pages and cover stories of “Time”, “Der Spiegel”, “Beijing Review”, and “Expert”. Political comedy helps people learn about current affairs even if politics is not their area of interest, and thus satire indirectly sets the public agenda. Coupled with satirical messages, cover images and the linguistic messages embedded in the covers become persuasive visual and verbal factors, known to drive about 80% of magazine sales. Preliminary analysis identified satirical elements in magazine covers, which are known to influence and frame understandings and attract younger audiences. Multimodal and transnational comparative framing analyses lay the groundwork to investigate why journalists, editors and designers deploy certain frames rather than others. This research investigates to what degree frames used in covers correlate with frames within the cover stories and what these framings can tell us about media professionals’ representations of their own and other nations. The study sample includes 32 covers consisting of two covers representing each of the four chosen countries from the four magazines. The sampling framework considers two time periods to compare countries’ representation with two different presidents, and between men and women when present. The countries selected for analysis represent each category of the international news flows model: the core nations are the US and Germany; China is a semi-peripheral country; and Russia is peripheral. Examining textual and visual design elements on the covers and images in the cover stories reveals not only what editors believe visually attracts the reader’s attention to the magazine but also how the magazines frame and construct national images and national leaders. The cover is the most powerful editorial and design page in a magazine because images incorporate less intrusive framing tools. Thus, covers require less cognitive effort of audiences who may therefore be more likely to accept the visual frame without question. Analysis of design and linguistic elements in magazine covers helps to understand how media outlets shape their audience’s perceptions and how magazines frame global issues. While previous multimodal research of covers has focused mostly on lifestyle magazines or newspapers, this paper examines the power of current affairs magazines’ covers to shape audience perception of national image.

Keywords: framing analysis, magazine covers, multimodality, national image, satire

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582 Dynamic-cognition of Strategic Mineral Commodities; An Empirical Assessment

Authors: Carlos Tapia Cortez, Serkan Saydam, Jeff Coulton, Claude Sammut

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Strategic mineral commodities (SMC) both energetic and metals have long been fundamental for human beings. There is a strong and long-run relation between the mineral resources industry and society's evolution, with the provision of primary raw materials, becoming one of the most significant drivers of economic growth. Due to mineral resources’ relevance for the entire economy and society, an understanding of the SMC market behaviour to simulate price fluctuations has become crucial for governments and firms. For any human activity, SMC price fluctuations are affected by economic, geopolitical, environmental, technological and psychological issues, where cognition has a major role. Cognition is defined as the capacity to store information in memory, processing and decision making for problem-solving or human adaptation. Thus, it has a significant role in those systems that exhibit dynamic equilibrium through time, such as economic growth. Cognition allows not only understanding past behaviours and trends in SCM markets but also supports future expectations of demand/supply levels and prices, although speculations are unavoidable. Technological developments may also be defined as a cognitive system. Since the Industrial Revolution, technological developments have had a significant influence on SMC production costs and prices, likewise allowing co-integration between commodities and market locations. It suggests a close relation between structural breaks, technology and prices evolution. SCM prices forecasting have been commonly addressed by econometrics and Gaussian-probabilistic models. Econometrics models may incorporate the relationship between variables; however, they are statics that leads to an incomplete approach of prices evolution through time. Gaussian-probabilistic models may evolve through time; however, price fluctuations are addressed by the assumption of random behaviour and normal distribution which seems to be far from the real behaviour of both market and prices. Random fluctuation ignores the evolution of market events and the technical and temporal relation between variables, giving the illusion of controlled future events. Normal distribution underestimates price fluctuations by using restricted ranges, curtailing decisions making into a pre-established space. A proper understanding of SMC's price dynamics taking into account the historical-cognitive relation between economic, technological and psychological factors over time is fundamental in attempting to simulate prices. The aim of this paper is to discuss the SMC market cognition hypothesis and empirically demonstrate its dynamic-cognitive capacity. Three of the largest and traded SMC's: oil, copper and gold, will be assessed to examine the economic, technological and psychological cognition respectively.

Keywords: commodity price simulation, commodity price uncertainties, dynamic-cognition, dynamic systems

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581 Production of Bacillus Lipopeptides for Biocontrol of Postharvest Crops

Authors: Vivek Rangarajan, Kim G. Klarke

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With overpopulation threatening the world’s ability to feed itself, food production and protection has become a major issue, especially in developing countries. Almost one-third of the food produced for human consumption, around 1.3 billion tonnes, is either wasted or lost annually. Postharvest decay in particular constitutes a major cause of crop loss with about 20% of fruits and vegetables produced lost during postharvest storage, mainly due to fungal disease. Some of the major phytopathogenic fungi affecting postharvest fruit crops in South Africa include Aspergillus, Botrytis, Penicillium, Alternaria and Sclerotinia spp. To date control of fungal phytopathogens has primarily been dependent on synthetic chemical fungicides, but these chemicals pose a significant threat to the environment, mainly due to their xenobiotic properties and tendency to generate resistance in the phytopathogens. Here, an environmentally benign alternative approach to control postharvest fungal phytopathogens in perishable fruit crops has been presented, namely the application of a bio-fungicide in the form of lipopeptide molecules. Lipopeptides are biosurfactants produced by Bacillus spp. which have been established as green, nontoxic and biodegradable molecules with antimicrobial properties. However, since the Bacillus are capable of producing a large number of lipopeptide homologues with differing efficacies against distinct target organisms, the lipopeptide production conditions and strategy are critical to produce the maximum lipopeptide concentration with homologue ratios to specification for optimum bio-fungicide efficacy. Process conditions, and their impact on Bacillus lipopeptide production, were evaluated in fully instrumented laboratory scale bioreactors under well-regulated controlled and defined environments. Factors such as the oxygen availability and trace element and nitrate concentrations had profound influences on lipopeptide yield, productivity and selectivity. Lipopeptide yield and homologue selectivity were enhanced in cultures where the oxygen in the sparge gas was increased from 21 to 30 mole%. The addition of trace elements, particularly Fe2+, increased the total concentration of lipopeptides and a nitrate concentration equivalent to 8 g/L ammonium nitrate resulted in optimum lipopeptide yield and homologue selectivity. Efficacy studies of the culture supernatant containing the crude lipopeptide mixture were conducted using phytopathogens isolated from fruit in the field, identified using genetic sequencing. The supernatant exhibited antifungal activity against all the test-isolates, namely Lewia, Botrytis, Penicillium, Alternaria and Sclerotinia spp., even in this crude form. Thus the lipopeptide product efficacy has been confirmed to control the main diseases, even in the basic crude form. Future studies will be directed towards purification of the lipopeptide product and enhancement of efficacy.

Keywords: antifungal efficacy, biocontrol, lipopeptide production, perishable crops

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580 Listening to Voices: A Meaning-Focused Framework for Supporting People with Auditory Verbal Hallucinations

Authors: Amar Ghelani

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People with auditory verbal hallucinations (AVH) who seek support from mental health services commonly report feeling unheard and invalidated in their interactions with social workers and psychiatric professionals. Current mental health training and clinical approaches have proven to be inadequate in addressing the complex nature of voice hearing. Childhood trauma is a key factor in the development of AVH and can render people more vulnerable to hearing both supportive and/or disturbing voices. Lived experiences of racism, poverty, and immigration are also associated with development of what is broadly classified as psychosis. Despite evidence affirming the influence of environmental factors on voice hearing, the Western biomedical system typically conceptualizes this experience as a symptom of genetically-based mental illnesses which requires diagnosis and treatment. Overemphasis on psychiatric medications, referrals, and directive approaches to people’s problems has shifted clinical interventions away from assessing and addressing problems directly related to AVH. The Maastricht approach offers voice hearers and mental health workers an alternative and respectful starting point for understanding and coping with voices. The approach was developed by voice hearers in partnership with mental health professionals and entails an innovative method to assess and create meaning from voice hearing and related life stressors. The objectives of the approach are to help people who hear voices: (1) understand the problems and/or people the voices may represent in their history, and (2) cope with distress and find solutions to related problems. The Maastricht approach has also been found to help voice hearers integrate emotional conflicts, reduce avoidance or fear associated with AVH, improve therapeutic relationships, and increase a sense of control over internal experiences. The proposed oral presentation will be guided by a recovery-oriented theoretical framework which suggests healing from psychological wounds occurs through social connections and community support systems. The presentation will start with a brainstorming exercise to identify participants pre-existing knowledge of the subject matter. This will lead into a literature review on the relations between trauma, intersectionality, and AVH. An overview of the Maastricht approach and review of research related to its therapeutic risks and benefits will follow. Participants will learn trauma-informed coping skills and questions which can help voice hearers make meaning from their experiences. The presentation will conclude with a review of resources and learning opportunities where participants can expand their knowledge of the Hearing Voices Movement and Maastricht approach.

Keywords: Maastricht interview, recovery, therapeutic assessment, voice hearing

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579 Reinforcing The Nagoya Protocol through a Coherent Global Intellectual Property Framework: Effective Protection for Traditional Knowledge Associated with Genetic Resources in Biodiverse African States

Authors: Oluwatobiloba Moody

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On October 12, 2014, the Nagoya Protocol, negotiated by Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), entered into force. The Protocol was negotiated to implement the third objective of the CBD which relates to the fair and equitable sharing of benefits arising from the utilization of genetic resources (GRs). The Protocol aims to ‘protect’ GRs and traditional knowledge (TK) associated with GRs from ‘biopiracy’, through the establishment of a binding international regime on access and benefit sharing (ABS). In reflecting on the question of ‘effectiveness’ in the Protocol’s implementation, this paper argues that the underlying problem of ‘biopiracy’, which the Protocol seeks to address, is one which goes beyond the ABS regime. It rather thrives due to indispensable factors emanating from the global intellectual property (IP) regime. It contends that biopiracy therefore constitutes an international problem of ‘borders’ as much as of ‘regimes’ and, therefore, while the implementation of the Protocol may effectively address the ‘trans-border’ issues which have hitherto troubled African provider countries in their establishment of regulatory mechanisms, it remains unable to address the ‘trans-regime’ issues related to the eradication of biopiracy, especially those issues which involve the IP regime. This is due to the glaring incoherence in the Nagoya Protocol’s implementation and the existing global IP system. In arriving at conclusions, the paper examines the ongoing related discussions within the IP regime, specifically those within the WIPO Intergovernmental Committee on Intellectual Property and Genetic Resources, Traditional Knowledge and Folklore (IGC) and the WTO TRIPS Council. It concludes that the Protocol’s effectiveness in protecting TK associated with GRs is conditional on the attainment of outcomes, within the ongoing negotiations of the IP regime, which could be implemented in a coherent manner with the Nagoya Protocol. It proposes specific ways to achieve this coherence. Three main methodological steps have been incorporated in the paper’s development. First, a review of data accumulated over a two year period arising from the coordination of six important negotiating sessions of the WIPO Intergovernmental Committee on Intellectual Property and Genetic Resources, Traditional Knowledge and Folklore. In this respect, the research benefits from reflections on the political, institutional and substantive nuances which have coloured the IP negotiations and which provide both the context and subtext to emerging texts. Second, a desktop review of the history, nature and significance of the Nagoya Protocol, using relevant primary and secondary literature from international and national sources. Third, a comparative analysis of selected biopiracy cases is undertaken for the purpose of establishing the inseparability of the IP regime and the ABS regime in the conceptualization and development of solutions to biopiracy. A comparative analysis of select African regulatory mechanisms (Kenya, South Africa and Ethiopia and the ARIPO Swakopmund Protocol) for the protection of TK is also undertaken.

Keywords: biopiracy, intellectual property, Nagoya protocol, traditional knowledge

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578 Gender Differences in the Impact and Subjective Interpretation of Childhood Sexual Abuse Survivors

Authors: T. Borja-Alvarez, V. Jiménez-Borja, M. Jiménez Borja, C. J. Jiménez-Mosquera

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Research on child sexual abuse has predominantly focused on female survivors. This has resulted in less research looking at the particular context in which this abuse takes place for boys and the impact this abuse may have on male survivors. The aim of this study is to examine the sex and age of the perpetrators of child sexual abuse and explore gender differences in the impact along with the subjective interpretation that survivors attribute to these experiences. The data for this study was obtained from Ecuadorian university students (M = 230, F = 293) who reported sexual abuse using the ISPCAN Child Abuse Screening Tool Retrospective version (ICAST-R). Participants completed Horowitz's Impact of Event Scale (IES) and were also requested to choose among neutral, positive, and negative adjectives to describe these experiences. The results indicate that in the case of males, perpetrators were both males (adults =27%, peers =20%, relatives =10.3%, cousins =7.4%) and young females (girlfriends or ex-girlfriends =25.6%, neighborhood =20.7%, school =16.7%, cousins =15.3%, strangers =12.8%). In contrast, almost all females reported that adult males were the perpetrators (relatives =29.6%, neighborhood =11.9%, strangers =19.9%, family friends =9.7%). Regarding the impact of these events, significant gender differences emerged. More females (50%) than males (20%) presented symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Gender differences also surfaced in the way survivors interpret their experiences. Almost half of the male participants selected the word “consensual” followed by the words “normal”, “helped me to mature”, “shameful”, “confusing”, and “traumatic”. In contrast, almost all females chose the word “non-consensual” followed by the words “shameful”, “traumatic”, “scary”, and “confusing”. In conclusion, the findings of this study suggest that young females and adult males were the most common perpetrators of sexually abused boys whereas adult males were the most common perpetrators of sexually abused girls. The impact and the subjective interpretation of these experiences were more negative for girls than for boys. The factors that account for the gender differences in the impact and the interpretation of these experiences need further exploration. It is likely that the cultural expectations of sexual behaviors for boys and girls in Latin American societies may partially explain the differential impact in the way these childhood sexual abuse experiences are interpreted in adulthood. In Ecuador, as is the case in other Latin American countries, the machismo culture not only accepts but encourages early sexual behaviors in boys and negatively judges premature sexual behavior in females. The result of these different sexual expectations may be that sexually abused boys may re-define these experiences as “consensual” and “normal” in adulthood, even though these were not consensual at the time of occurrence. Future studies are needed to more deeply understand the different contexts of sexual abuse for boys and girls in order to analyze the long-term impact of these experiences.

Keywords: abuse, child, gender differences, sexual

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577 Tailoring Piezoelectricity of PVDF Fibers with Voltage Polarity and Humidity in Electrospinning

Authors: Piotr K. Szewczyk, Arkadiusz Gradys, Sungkyun Kim, Luana Persano, Mateusz M. Marzec, Oleksander Kryshtal, Andrzej Bernasik, Sohini Kar-Narayan, Pawel Sajkiewicz, Urszula Stachewicz

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Piezoelectric polymers have received great attention in smart textiles, wearables, and flexible electronics. Their potential applications range from devices that could operate without traditional power sources, through self-powering sensors, up to implantable biosensors. Semi-crystalline PVDF is often proposed as the main candidate for industrial-scale applications as it exhibits exceptional energy harvesting efficiency compared to other polymers combined with high mechanical strength and thermal stability. Plenty of approaches have been proposed for obtaining PVDF rich in the desired β-phase with electric polling, thermal annealing, and mechanical stretching being the most prevalent. Electrospinning is a highly tunable technique that provides a one-step process of obtaining highly piezoelectric PVDF fibers without the need for post-treatment. In this study, voltage polarity and relative humidity influence on electrospun PVDF, fibers were investigated with the main focus on piezoelectric β-phase contents and piezoelectric performance. Morphology and internal structure of fibers were investigated using scanning (SEM) and transmission electron microscopy techniques (TEM). Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FITR), wide-angle X-ray scattering (WAXS) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) were used to characterize the phase composition of electrospun PVDF. Additionally, surface chemistry was verified with X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). Piezoelectric performance of individual electrospun PVDF fibers was measured using piezoresponse force microscopy (PFM), and the power output from meshes was analyzed via custom-built equipment. To prepare the solution for electrospinning, PVDF pellets were dissolved in dimethylacetamide and acetone solution in a 1:1 ratio to achieve a 24% solution. Fibers were electrospun with a constant voltage of +/-15kV applied to the stainless steel nozzle with the inner diameter of 0.8mm. The flow rate was kept constant at 6mlh⁻¹. The electrospinning of PVDF was performed at T = 25°C and relative humidity of 30 and 60% for PVDF30+/- and PVDF60+/- samples respectively in the environmental chamber. The SEM and TEM analysis of fibers produced at a lower relative humidity of 30% (PVDF30+/-) showed a smooth surface in opposition to fibers obtained at 60% relative humidity (PVDF60+/-), which had wrinkled surface and additionally internal voids. XPS results confirmed lower fluorine content at the surface of PVDF- fibers obtained by electrospinning with negative voltage polarity comparing to the PVDF+ obtained with positive voltage polarity. Changes in surface composition measured with XPS were found to influence the piezoelectric performance of obtained fibers what was further confirmed by PFM as well as by custom-built fiber-based piezoelectric generator. For PVDF60+/- samples humidity led to an increase of β-phase contents in PVDF fibers as confirmed by FTIR, WAXS, and DSC measurements, which showed almost two times higher concentrations of β-phase. A combination of negative voltage polarity with high relative humidity led to fibers with the highest β-phase contents and the best piezoelectric performance of all investigated samples. This study outlines the possibility to produce electrospun PVDF fibers with tunable piezoelectric performance in a one-step electrospinning process by controlling relative humidity and voltage polarity conditions. Acknowledgment: This research was conducted within the funding from m the Sonata Bis 5 project granted by National Science Centre, No 2015/18/E/ST5/00230, and supported by the infrastructure at International Centre of Electron Microscopy for Materials Science (IC-EM) at AGH University of Science and Technology. The PFM measurements were supported by an STSM Grant from COST Action CA17107.

Keywords: crystallinity, electrospinning, PVDF, voltage polarity

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576 The Molecular Mechanism of Vacuolar Function in Yeast Cell Homeostasis

Authors: Chang-Hui Shen, Paulina Konarzewska

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Cell homeostasis is regulated by vacuolar activity and it has been shown that lipid composition of the vacuole plays an important role in vacuolar function. The major phosphoinositide species present in the vacuolar membrane include phosphatidylinositol 3,5-biphosphate (PI(3,5)P₂) which is generated from PI(3)P controlled by Fab1p. Deletion of FAB1 gene reduce the synthesis of PI(3,5)P₂ and thus result in enlarged or fragmented vacuoles, with neutral vacuolar pH due to reduced vacuolar H⁺-ATPase activity. These mutants also exhibited poor growth at high extracellular pH and in the presence of CaCl₂. Conversely, VPS34 regulates the synthesis of PI(3)P from phosphatidylinositol (PI), and the lack of Vps34p results in the reduction of vacuolar activity. Although the cellular observations are clear, it is still unknown about the molecular mechanism between the phospholipid biosynthesis pathway and vacuolar activity. Since both VPS34 and FAB1 are important in vacuolar activity, we hypothesize that the molecular mechanism of vacuolar function might be regulated by the transcriptional regulators of phospholipid biosynthesis. In this study, we study the role of the major phospholipid biosynthesis transcription factor, INO2, in the regulation of vacuolar activity. We first performed qRT-PCR to examine the effect of Ino2p on the expression of VPS34 and FAB1. Our results showed that VPS34 was upregulated in the presence of inositol for both WT and ino2Δ cells. However, FAB1 was only upregulated significantly in ino2Δ cells. This indicated that Ino2p might be the negative regulator for FAB1 expression. Next, growth sensitivity experiment showed that WT, vma3Δ, and ino2Δ grew well in growth medium buffered to pH 5.5 containing 10 mM CaCl₂. As cells were switched to growth medium buffered to pH 7 containing CaCl₂ WT, ino2Δ and opi1Δ showed growth reduction, whereas vma3Δ was completely nonviable. As the concentration of CaCl₂ was increased to 60 mM, ino2Δ cells showed moderate growth reduction compared to WT. This result suggests that ino2Δ cells have better vacuolar activity. Microscopic analysis and vacuolar acidification were employed to further elucidate the importance of INO2 in vacuolar homeostasis. Analysis of vacuolar morphology indicated that WT and vma3Δ cells displayed vacuoles that occupied a small area of the cell when grown in media buffered to pH 5.5. Whereas, ino2Δ displayed fragmented vacuoles. On the other hand, all strains grown in media buffered to pH 7, exhibited enlarged vacuoles that occupied most of the cell’s surface. This indicated that the presence of INO2 may play negative effect in vacuolar morphology when cells are grown in media buffered to pH 5.5. Furthermore, vacuolar acidification assay showed that only vma3Δ cells displayed notably less acidic vacuoles as cells were grown in media buffered to pH 5.5 and pH 7. Whereas, ino2Δ cells displayed more acidic pH compared to WT at pH7. Taken together, our results demonstrated the molecular mechanism of the vacuolar activity regulated by the phospholipid biosynthesis transcription factors Ino2p. Ino2p negatively regulates vacuolar activity through the expression of FAB1.

Keywords: vacuole, phospholipid, homeostasis, Ino2p, FAB1

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575 Developing a Framework for Sustainable Social Housing Delivery in Greater Port Harcourt City Rivers State, Nigeria

Authors: Enwin Anthony Dornubari, Visigah Kpobari Peter

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This research has developed a framework for the provision of sustainable and affordable housing to accommodate the low-income population of Greater Port Harcourt City. The objectives of this study among others, were to: examine UN-Habitat guidelines for acceptable and sustainable social housing provision, describe past efforts of the Rivers State Government and the Federal Government of Nigeria to provide housing for the poor in the Greater Port Harcourt City area; obtain a profile of prospective beneficiaries of the social housing proposed by this research as well as perceptions of their present living conditions, and living in the proposed self-sustaining social housing development, based on the initial simulation of the proposal; describe the nature of the framework, guideline and management of the proposed social housing development and explain the modalities for its implementation. The study utilized the mixed methods research approach, aimed at triangulating findings from the quantitative and qualitative paradigms. Opinions of professional of the built environment; Director, Development Control, Greater Port Harcourt City Development Authority; Directors of Ministry of Urban Development and Physical Planning; Housing and Property Development Authority and managers of selected Primary Mortgage Institutions were sought and analyzed. There were four target populations for the study, namely: members of occupational sub-groups for FGDs (Focused Group Discussions); development professionals for KIIs (Key Informant Interviews), household heads in selected communities of GPHC; and relevant public officials for IDI (Individual Depth Interview). Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) were held with members of occupational sub-groups in each of the eight selected communities (Fisherfolk). The table shows that there were forty (40) members across all occupational sub-groups in each selected community, yielding a total of 320 in the eight (8) communities of Mgbundukwu (Mile 2 Diobu), Rumuodomaya, Abara (Etche), Igwuruta-Ali(Ikwerre), Wakama(Ogu-Bolo), Okujagu (Okrika), Akpajo (Eleme), and Okoloma (Oyigbo). For key informant interviews, two (2) members were judgmentally selected from each of the following development professions: urban and regional planners; architects; estate surveyors; land surveyors; quantity surveyors; and engineers. Concerning Population 3-Household Heads in Selected Communities of GPHC, a stratified multi-stage sampling procedure was adopted: Stage 1-Obtaining a 10% (a priori decision) sample of the component communities of GPHC in each stratum. The number in each stratum was rounded to one whole number to ensure representation of each stratum. Stage 2-Obtaining the number of households to be studied after applying the Taro Yamane formula, which aided in determining the appropriate number of cases to be studied at the precision level of 5%. Findings revealed, amongst others, that poor implementation of the UN-Habitat global shelter strategy, lack of stakeholder engagement, inappropriate locations, undue bureaucracy, lack of housing fairness and equity and high cost of land and building materials were the reasons for the failure of past efforts towards social housing provision in the Greater Port Harcourt City area. The study recommended a public-private partnership approach for the implementation and management of the framework. It also recommended a robust and sustained relationship between the management of the framework and the UN-Habitat office and other relevant government agencies responsible for housing development and all investment partners to create trust and efficiency.

Keywords: development, framework, low-income, sustainable, social housing

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574 Implementing the WHO Air Quality Guideline for PM2.5 Worldwide can Prevent Millions of Premature Deaths Per Year

Authors: Despina Giannadaki, Jos Lelieveld, Andrea Pozzer, John Evans

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Outdoor air pollution by fine particles ranks among the top ten global health risk factors that can lead to premature mortality. Epidemiological cohort studies, mainly conducted in United States and Europe, have shown that the long-term exposure to PM2.5 (particles with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5μm) is associated with increased mortality from cardiovascular, respiratory diseases and lung cancer. Fine particulates can cause health impacts even at very low concentrations. Previously, no concentration level has been defined below which health damage can be fully prevented. The World Health Organization ambient air quality guidelines suggest an annual mean PM2.5 concentration limit of 10μg/m3. Populations in large parts of the world, especially in East and Southeast Asia, and in the Middle East, are exposed to high levels of fine particulate pollution that by far exceeds the World Health Organization guidelines. The aim of this work is to evaluate the implementation of recent air quality standards for PM2.5 in the EU, the US and other countries worldwide and estimate what measures will be needed to substantially reduce premature mortality. We investigated premature mortality attributed to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) under adults ≥ 30yrs and children < 5yrs, applying a high-resolution global atmospheric chemistry model combined with epidemiological concentration-response functions. The latter are based on the methodology of the Global Burden of Disease for 2010, assuming a ‘safe’ annual mean PM2.5 threshold of 7.3μg/m3. We estimate the global premature mortality by PM2.5 at 3.15 million/year in 2010. China is the leading country with about 1.33 million, followed by India with 575 thousand and Pakistan with 105 thousand. For the European Union (EU) we estimate 173 thousand and the United States (US) 52 thousand in 2010. Based on sensitivity calculations we tested the gains from PM2.5 control by applying the air quality guidelines (AQG) and standards of the World Health Organization (WHO), the EU, the US and other countries. To estimate potential reductions in mortality rates we take into consideration the deaths that cannot be avoided after the implementation of PM2.5 upper limits, due to the contribution of natural sources to total PM2.5 and therefore to mortality (mainly airborne desert dust). The annual mean EU limit of 25μg/m3 would reduce global premature mortality by 18%, while within the EU the effect is negligible, indicating that the standard is largely met and that stricter limits are needed. The new US standard of 12μg/m3 would reduce premature mortality by 46% worldwide, 4% in the US and 20% in the EU. Implementing the AQG by the WHO of 10μg/m3 would reduce global premature mortality by 54%, 76% in China and 59% in India. In the EU and US, the mortality would be reduced by 36% and 14%, respectively. Hence, following the WHO guideline will prevent 1.7 million premature deaths per year. Sensitivity calculations indicate that even small changes at the lower PM2.5 standards can have major impacts on global mortality rates.

Keywords: air quality guidelines, outdoor air pollution, particulate matter, premature mortality

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573 Comparison of GIS-Based Soil Erosion Susceptibility Models Using Support Vector Machine, Binary Logistic Regression and Artificial Neural Network in the Southwest Amazon Region

Authors: Elaine Lima Da Fonseca, Eliomar Pereira Da Silva Filho

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The modeling of areas susceptible to soil loss by hydro erosive processes consists of a simplified instrument of reality with the purpose of predicting future behaviors from the observation and interaction of a set of geoenvironmental factors. The models of potential areas for soil loss will be obtained through binary logistic regression, artificial neural networks, and support vector machines. The choice of the municipality of Colorado do Oeste in the south of the western Amazon is due to soil degradation due to anthropogenic activities, such as agriculture, road construction, overgrazing, deforestation, and environmental and socioeconomic configurations. Initially, a soil erosion inventory map constructed through various field investigations will be designed, including the use of remotely piloted aircraft, orbital imagery, and the PLANAFLORO/RO database. 100 sampling units with the presence of erosion will be selected based on the assumptions indicated in the literature, and, to complement the dichotomous analysis, 100 units with no erosion will be randomly designated. The next step will be the selection of the predictive parameters that exert, jointly, directly, or indirectly, some influence on the mechanism of occurrence of soil erosion events. The chosen predictors are altitude, declivity, aspect or orientation of the slope, curvature of the slope, composite topographic index, flow power index, lineament density, normalized difference vegetation index, drainage density, lithology, soil type, erosivity, and ground surface temperature. After evaluating the relative contribution of each predictor variable, the erosion susceptibility model will be applied to the municipality of Colorado do Oeste - Rondônia through the SPSS Statistic 26 software. Evaluation of the model will occur through the determination of the values of the R² of Cox & Snell and the R² of Nagelkerke, Hosmer and Lemeshow Test, Log Likelihood Value, and Wald Test, in addition to analysis of the Confounding Matrix, ROC Curve and Accumulated Gain according to the model specification. The validation of the synthesis map resulting from both models of the potential risk of soil erosion will occur by means of Kappa indices, accuracy, and sensitivity, as well as by field verification of the classes of susceptibility to erosion using drone photogrammetry. Thus, it is expected to obtain the mapping of the following classes of susceptibility to erosion very low, low, moderate, very high, and high, which may constitute a screening tool to identify areas where more detailed investigations need to be carried out, applying more efficient social resources.

Keywords: modeling, susceptibility to erosion, artificial intelligence, Amazon

Procedia PDF Downloads 68
572 De-Securitizing Identity: Narrative (In)Consistency in Periods of Transition

Authors: Katerina Antoniou

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When examining conflicts around the world, it is evident that the majority of intractable conflicts are steeped in identity. Identity seems to be not only a causal variable for conflict, but also a catalytic parameter for the process of reconciliation that follows ceasefire. This paper focuses on the process of identity securitization that occurs between rival groups of heterogeneous collective identities – ethnic, national or religious – as well as on the relationship between identity securitization and the ability of the groups involved to reconcile. Are securitized identities obstacles to the process of reconciliation, able to hinder any prospects of peace? If the level to which an identity is securitized is catalytic to a conflict’s discourse and settlement, then which factors act as indicators of identity de-securitization? The level of an in-group’s identity securitization can be estimated through a number of indicators, one of which is narrative. The stories, views and stances each in-group adopts in relation to its history of conflict and relation with their rival out-group can clarify whether that specific in-group feels victimized and threatened or safe and ready to reconcile. Accordingly, this study discusses identity securitization through narrative in relation to intractable conflicts. Are there conflicts around the world that, despite having been identified as intractable, stagnated or insoluble, show signs of identity de-securitization through narrative? This inquiry uses the case of the Cyprus conflict and its partitioned societies to present official narratives from the two communities and assess whether these narratives have transformed, indicating a less securitized in-group identity for the Greek and Turkish Cypriots. Specifically, the study compares the official historical overviews presented by each community’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs website and discusses the extent to which the two official narratives present a securitized collective identity. In addition, the study will observe whether official stances by the two communities – as adopted by community leaders – have transformed to depict less securitization over time. Additionally, the leaders’ reflection of popular opinion is evaluated through recent opinion polls from each community. Cyprus is currently experiencing renewed optimism for reunification, with the leaders of its two communities engaging in rigorous negotiations, and with rumors calling for a potential referendum for reunification to be taking place even as early as within 2016. Although leaders’ have shown a shift in their rhetoric and have moved away from narratives of victimization, this is not the case for the official narratives used by their respective ministries of foreign affairs. The study’s findings explore whether this narrative inconsistency proves that Cyprus is transitioning towards reunification, or whether the leaders are risking sending a securitized population to the polls to reject a potential reunification. More broadly, this study suggests that in the event that intractable conflicts might be moving towards viable peace, in-group narratives--official narratives in particular--can act as indicators of the extent to which rival entities have managed to reconcile.

Keywords: conflict, identity, narrative, reconciliation

Procedia PDF Downloads 324
571 The Digital Divide: Examining the Use and Access to E-Health Based Technologies by Millennials and Older Adults

Authors: Delana Theiventhiran, Wally J. Bartfay

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Background and Significance: As the Internet is becoming the epitome of modern communications, there are many pragmatic reasons why the digital divide matters in terms of accessing and using E-health based technologies. With the rise of technology usage globally, those in the older adult generation may not be as familiar and comfortable with technology usage and are thus put at a disadvantage compared to other generations such as millennials when examining and using E-health based platforms and technology. Currently, little is known about how older adults and millennials access and use e-health based technologies. Methods: A systemic review of the literature was undertaken employing the following three databases: (i) PubMed, (ii) ERIC, and (iii) CINAHL; employing the search term 'digital divide and generations' to identify potential articles. To extract required data from the studies, a data abstraction tool was created to obtain the following information: (a) author, (b) year of publication, (c) sample size, (d) country of origin, (e) design/methods, (f) major findings/outcomes obtained. Inclusion criteria included publication dates between the years of Jan 2009 to Aug 2018, written in the English language, target populations of older adults aged 65 and above and millennials, and peer reviewed quantitative studies only. Major Findings: PubMed provided 505 potential articles, where 23 of those articles met the inclusion criteria. Specifically, ERIC provided 53 potential articles, where no articles met criteria following data extraction. CINAHL provided 14 potential articles, where eight articles met criteria following data extraction. Conclusion: Practically speaking, identifying how newer E-health based technologies can be integrated into society and identifying why there is a gap with digital technology will help reduce the impact on generations and individuals who are not as familiar with technology and Internet usage. The largest concern of all is how to prepare older adults for new and emerging E-health technologies. Currently, there is a dearth of literature in this area because it is a newer area of research and little is known about it. The benefits and consequences of technology being integrated into daily living are being investigated as a newer area of research. Several of the articles (N=11) indicated that age is one of the larger factors contributing to the digital divide. Similarly, many of the examined articles (N=5) identify that privacy concerns were one of the main deterrents of technology usage for elderly individuals aged 65 and above. The older adult generation feels that privacy is one of the major concerns, especially in regards to how data is collected, used and possibly sold to third party groups by various websites. Additionally, access to technology, the Internet, and infrastructure also plays a large part in the way that individuals are able to receive and use information. Lastly, a change in the way that healthcare is currently used, received and distributed would also help attribute to the change to ensure that no generation is left behind in a technologically advanced society.

Keywords: digital divide, e-health, millennials, older adults

Procedia PDF Downloads 172
570 Agent-Based Modeling Investigating Self-Organization in Open, Non-equilibrium Thermodynamic Systems

Authors: Georgi Y. Georgiev, Matthew Brouillet

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This research applies the power of agent-based modeling to a pivotal question at the intersection of biology, computer science, physics, and complex systems theory about the self-organization processes in open, complex, non-equilibrium thermodynamic systems. Central to this investigation is the principle of Maximum Entropy Production (MEP). This principle suggests that such systems evolve toward states that optimize entropy production, leading to the formation of structured environments. It is hypothesized that guided by the least action principle, open thermodynamic systems identify and follow the shortest paths to transmit energy and matter, resulting in maximal entropy production, internal structure formation, and a decrease in internal entropy. Concurrently, it is predicted that there will be an increase in system information as more information is required to describe the developing structure. To test this, an agent-based model is developed simulating an ant colony's formation of a path between a food source and its nest. Utilizing the Netlogo software for modeling and Python for data analysis and visualization, self-organization is quantified by calculating the decrease in system entropy based on the potential states and distribution of the ants within the simulated environment. External entropy production is also evaluated for information increase and efficiency improvements in the system's action. Simulations demonstrated that the system begins at maximal entropy, which decreases as the ants form paths over time. A range of system behaviors contingent upon the number of ants are observed. Notably, no path formation occurred with fewer than five ants, whereas clear paths were established by 200 ants, and saturation of path formation and entropy state was reached at populations exceeding 1000 ants. This analytical approach identified the inflection point marking the transition from disorder to order and computed the slope at this point. Combined with extrapolation to the final path entropy, these parameters yield important insights into the eventual entropy state of the system and the timeframe for its establishment, enabling the estimation of the self-organization rate. This study provides a novel perspective on the exploration of self-organization in thermodynamic systems, establishing a correlation between internal entropy decrease rate and external entropy production rate. Moreover, it presents a flexible framework for assessing the impact of external factors like changes in world size, path obstacles, and friction. Overall, this research offers a robust, replicable model for studying self-organization processes in any open thermodynamic system. As such, it provides a foundation for further in-depth exploration of the complex behaviors of these systems and contributes to the development of more efficient self-organizing systems across various scientific fields.

Keywords: complexity, self-organization, agent based modelling, efficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 69
569 Screening Tools and Its Accuracy for Common Soccer Injuries: A Systematic Review

Authors: R. Christopher, C. Brandt, N. Damons

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Background: The sequence of prevention model states that by constant assessment of injury, injury mechanisms and risk factors are identified, highlighting that collecting and recording of data is a core approach for preventing injuries. Several screening tools are available for use in the clinical setting. These screening techniques only recently received research attention, hence there is a dearth of inconsistent and controversial data regarding their applicability, validity, and reliability. Several systematic reviews related to common soccer injuries have been conducted; however, none of them addressed the screening tools for common soccer injuries. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to conduct a review of screening tools and their accuracy for common injuries in soccer. Methods: A systematic scoping review was performed based on the Joanna Briggs Institute procedure for conducting systematic reviews. Databases such as SPORT Discus, Cinahl, Medline, Science Direct, PubMed, and grey literature were used to access suitable studies. Some of the key search terms included: injury screening, screening, screening tool accuracy, injury prevalence, injury prediction, accuracy, validity, specificity, reliability, sensitivity. All types of English studies dating back to the year 2000 were included. Two blind independent reviewers selected and appraised articles on a 9-point scale for inclusion as well as for the risk of bias with the ACROBAT-NRSI tool. Data were extracted and summarized in tables. Plot data analysis was done, and sensitivity and specificity were analyzed with their respective 95% confidence intervals. I² statistic was used to determine the proportion of variation across studies. Results: The initial search yielded 95 studies, of which 21 were duplicates, and 54 excluded. A total of 10 observational studies were included for the analysis: 3 studies were analysed quantitatively while the remaining 7 were analysed qualitatively. Seven studies were graded low and three studies high risk of bias. Only high methodological studies (score > 9) were included for analysis. The pooled studies investigated tools such as the Functional Movement Screening (FMS™), the Landing Error Scoring System (LESS), the Tuck Jump Assessment, the Soccer Injury Movement Screening (SIMS), and the conventional hamstrings to quadriceps ratio. The accuracy of screening tools was of high reliability, sensitivity and specificity (calculated as ICC 0.68, 95% CI: 52-0.84; and 0.64, 95% CI: 0.61-0.66 respectively; I² = 13.2%, P=0.316). Conclusion: Based on the pooled results from the included studies, the FMS™ has a good inter-rater and intra-rater reliability. FMS™ is a screening tool capable of screening for common soccer injuries, and individual FMS™ scores are a better determinant of performance in comparison with the overall FMS™ score. Although meta-analysis could not be done for all the included screening tools, qualitative analysis also indicated good sensitivity and specificity of the individual tools. Higher levels of evidence are, however, needed for implication in evidence-based practice.

Keywords: accuracy, screening tools, sensitivity, soccer injuries, specificity

Procedia PDF Downloads 180
568 Cities Under Pressure: Unraveling Urban Resilience Challenges

Authors: Sherine S. Aly, Fahd A. Hemeida, Mohamed A. Elshamy

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In the face of rapid urbanization and the myriad challenges posed by climate change, population growth, and socio-economic disparities, fostering urban resilience has become paramount. This abstract offers a comprehensive overview of the study on "Urban Resilience Challenges," exploring the background, methodologies, major findings, and concluding insights. The paper unveils a spectrum of challenges encompassing environmental stressors and deep-seated socio-economic issues, such as unequal access to resources and opportunities. Emphasizing their interconnected nature, the study underscores the imperative for holistic and integrated approaches to urban resilience, recognizing the intricate web of factors shaping the urban landscape. Urbanization has witnessed an unprecedented surge, transforming cities into dynamic and complex entities. With this growth, however, comes an array of challenges that threaten the sustainability and resilience of urban environments. This study seeks to unravel the multifaceted urban resilience challenges, exploring their origins and implications for contemporary cities. Cities serve as hubs of economic, social, and cultural activities, attracting diverse populations seeking opportunities and a higher quality of life. However, the urban fabric is increasingly strained by climate-related events, infrastructure vulnerabilities, and social inequalities. Understanding the nuances of these challenges is crucial for developing strategies that enhance urban resilience and ensure the longevity of cities as vibrant and adaptive entities. This paper endeavors to discern strategic guidelines for enhancing urban resilience amidst the dynamic challenges posed by rapid urbanization. The study aims to distill actionable insights that can inform strategic approaches. Guiding the formulation of effective strategies to fortify cities against multifaceted pressures. The study employs a multifaceted approach to dissect urban resilience challenges. A qualitative method will be employed, including comprehensive literature reviews and data analysis of urban vulnerabilities that provided valuable insights into the lived experiences of resilience challenges in diverse urban settings. In conclusion, this study underscores the urgency of addressing urban resilience challenges to ensure the sustained vitality of cities worldwide. The interconnected nature of these challenges necessitates a paradigm shift in urban planning and governance. By adopting holistic strategies that integrate environmental, social, and economic considerations, cities can navigate the complexities of the 21st century. The findings provide a roadmap for policymakers, planners, and communities to collaboratively forge resilient urban futures that withstand the challenges of an ever-evolving urban landscape.

Keywords: resilient principles, risk management, sustainable cities, urban resilience

Procedia PDF Downloads 55
567 Evaluation of Housing Quality in the Urban Fringes of Ibadan, Nigeria

Authors: Amao Funmilayo Lanrewaju

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The study examined the socio-economic characteristics of the residents in selected urban fringes of Ibadan; identified and examined the housing and neighbourhood characteristics and evaluated housing quality in the study area. It analysed the relationship between the socio-economic characteristics of the residents, housing and neighbourhood characteristics as well as housing quality in the study area. This was with a view to providing information that would enhance the housing quality in urban fringes of Ibadan. Primary and secondary data were used for the study. A survey of eleven purposively selected communities from Oluyole and Egbeda local government areas in the urban fringes was conducted through a questionnaire administration and expert rating by five independent assessors (Qualified Architects) using penalty scoring within similar time-frames. The study employed a random sampling method to select a sample size of 480 houses representing 5% of the sampling frame of 9600 houses. Respondent in the first house was selected randomly and subsequently every 20th house in the streets involved was systematically selected for questionnaire administration, usually a household-head per building. The structured questionnaire elicited information on socio-economic characteristics of the residents, housing and neighbourhood characteristics, factors affecting housing quality and housing quality in the study area. Secondary data obtained for the study included the land-use plan of Ibadan from previous publications, housing demographics, population figures from relevant institutions and other published materials. The data collected were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics such as frequency distribution, Cross tabulation, Correlation Analysis, Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and Relative Importance Index (RII). The result of the survey revealed that respondents from the Yoruba ethnic group constituted the majority, comprising 439 (91.5%) of the 480 respondents from the two local government areas selected. It also revealed that the type of tenure status of majority of the respondents in the two local government areas was self-ownership (234, 48.8%), while 44.0% of the respondents acquired their houses through personal savings. Cross tabulation indicated that majority (67.1%, 322 out of 480) of the respondents were low-income earners. The study showed that both housing and neighbourhood services were not adequately provided across neighbourhoods in the study area. Correlation analysis indicated a significant relationship between respondents’ socio–economic status and their general housing quality (r=0.46; p-value of 0.01< 0.05). The ANOVA indicated that the relationship between socio-economic characteristics of the residents, housing and neighbourhood characteristics in the study area was significant (F=18.289, p=0.00; the coefficient of determination R2= 0.192). The findings from the study however revealed that there was no significant difference in the results obtained from users based evaluation and expert rating. The study concluded that housing quality in the urban fringes of Ibadan is generally poor and the socio-economic status of the residents significantly influenced the housing quality.

Keywords: housing quality, urban fringes, economic status, poverty

Procedia PDF Downloads 443
566 COVID-19 Laws and Policy: The Use of Policy Surveillance For Better Legal Preparedness

Authors: Francesca Nardi, Kashish Aneja, Katherine Ginsbach

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The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated both a need for evidence-based and rights-based public health policy and how challenging it can be to make effective decisions with limited information, evidence, and data. The O’Neill Institute, in conjunction with several partners, has been working since the beginning of the pandemic to collect, analyze, and distribute critical data on public health policies enacted in response to COVID-19 around the world in the COVID-19 Law Lab. Well-designed laws and policies can help build strong health systems, implement necessary measures to combat viral transmission, enforce actions that promote public health and safety for everyone, and on the individual level have a direct impact on health outcomes. Poorly designed laws and policies, on the other hand, can fail to achieve the intended results and/or obstruct the realization of fundamental human rights, further disease spread, or cause unintended collateral harms. When done properly, laws can provide the foundation that brings clarity to complexity, embrace nuance, and identifies gaps of uncertainty. However, laws can also shape the societal factors that make disease possible. Law is inseparable from the rest of society, and COVID-19 has exposed just how much laws and policies intersects all facets of society. In the COVID-19 context, evidence-based and well-informed law and policy decisions—made at the right time and in the right place—can and have meant the difference between life or death for many. Having a solid evidentiary base of legal information can promote the understanding of what works well and where, and it can drive resources and action to where they are needed most. We know that legal mechanisms can enable nations to reduce inequities and prepare for emerging threats, like novel pathogens that result in deadly disease outbreaks or antibiotic resistance. The collection and analysis of data on these legal mechanisms is a critical step towards ensuring that legal interventions and legal landscapes are effectively incorporated into more traditional kinds of health science data analyses. The COVID-19 Law Labs see a unique opportunity to collect and analyze this kind of non-traditional data to inform policy using laws and policies from across the globe and across diseases. This global view is critical to assessing the efficacy of policies in a wide range of cultural, economic, and demographic circumstances. The COVID-19 Law Lab is not just a collection of legal texts relating to COVID-19; it is a dataset of concise and actionable legal information that can be used by health researchers, social scientists, academics, human rights advocates, law and policymakers, government decision-makers, and others for cross-disciplinary quantitative and qualitative analysis to identify best practices from this outbreak, and previous ones, to be better prepared for potential future public health events.

Keywords: public health law, surveillance, policy, legal, data

Procedia PDF Downloads 142
565 Suicide Wrongful Death: Standard of Care Problems Involving the Inaccurate Discernment of Lethal Risk When Focusing on the Elicitation of Suicide Ideation

Authors: Bill D. Geis

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Suicide wrongful death forensic cases are the fastest rising tort in mental health law. It is estimated that suicide-related cases have accounted for 15% of U.S. malpractice claims since 2006. Most suicide-related personal injury claims fall into the legal category of “wrongful death.” Though mental health experts may be called on to address a range of forensic questions in wrongful death cases, the central consultation that most experts provide is about the negligence element—specifically, the issue of whether the clinician met the clinical standard of care in assessing, treating, and managing the deceased person’s mental health care. Standards of care, varying from U.S. state to state, are broad and address what a reasonable clinician might do in a similar circumstance. This fact leaves the issue of the suicide standard of care, in each case, up to forensic experts to put forth a reasoned estimate of what the standard of care should have been in the specific case under litigation. Because the general state guidelines for standard of care are broad, forensic experts are readily retained to provide scientific and clinical opinions about whether or not a clinician met the standard of care in their suicide assessment, treatment, and management of the case. In the past and in much of current practice, the assessment of suicide has centered on the elicitation of verbalized suicide ideation. Research in recent years, however, has indicated that the majority of persons who end their lives do not say they are suicidal at their last medical or psychiatric contact. Near-term risk assessment—that goes beyond verbalized suicide ideation—is needed. Our previous research employed structural equation modeling to predict lethal suicide risk--eight negative thought patterns (feeling like a burden on others, hopelessness, self-hatred, etc.) mediated by nine transdiagnostic clinical factors (mental torment, insomnia, substance abuse, PTSD intrusions, etc.) were combined to predict acute lethal suicide risk. This structural equation model, the Lethal Suicide Risk Pattern (LSRP), Acute model, had excellent goodness-of-fit [χ2(df) = 94.25(47)***, CFI = .98, RMSEA = .05, .90CI = .03-.06, p(RMSEA = .05) = .63. AIC = 340.25, ***p < .001.]. A further SEQ analysis was completed for this paper, adding a measure of Acute Suicide Ideation to the previous SEQ. Acceptable prediction model fit was no longer achieved [χ2(df) = 3.571, CFI > .953, RMSEA = .075, .90% CI = .065-.085, AIC = 529.550].This finding suggests that, in this additional study, immediate verbalized suicide ideation information was unhelpful in the assessment of lethal risk. The LSRP and other dynamic, near-term risk models (such as the Acute Suicide Affective Disorder Model and the Suicide Crisis Syndrome Model)—going beyond elicited suicide ideation—need to be incorporated into current clinical suicide assessment training. Without this training, the standard of care for suicide assessment is out of sync with current research—an emerging dilemma for the forensic evaluation of suicide wrongful death cases.

Keywords: forensic evaluation, standard of care, suicide, suicide assessment, wrongful death

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564 Determining Factors of Suspended Glass Systems with Pre-Stress Cable Truss

Authors: Cemil Atakara, Hüseyin Eryaman

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The use of glass as an envelope of a building has been increasing in the twentieth century. For more transparency and dematerialization new glass facade types have emerged in the past two decades which depends on point fixed glazing system (PFGS). The aim of this study is to analyze of the PFGS systems which are used on the glass curtain wall according to their types, degree, architectural and structural effects. This new system is desired because it enhances the transparency of the façade and it minimizes the component of the frames or of the profiles. This PFGS led to new structural elements which use cables, rods, trusses when designing a glass building facades, this structural element called the suspended glass system with pre-stressed cable truss (SGSPCT) which has been used for the first time in 1980 in Serres building. The twenty glass buildings which are designed in different systems have been analyzed during this study. After these analyses five selected SGSPCT building analyzed deeply and one skeletal frame building selected from Lefkosa redesigned according to the analysis results. These selected buildings have been included of various cable-truss system typologies and degree. The methodology of this study is building analysis method and literature survey with the help of books, articles, magazines, drawings, internet sources and applied connection details of the glass buildings. The selected five glass buildings and case building have been detailed analyzed with their architectural drawings, photographs and details. A gridshell structure can be compared with a shell structure; it consists of discrete members connecting nodal points. As these nodal points lie on the surface of an imaginary shell, their shapes function almost identically. Difference between shell and gridshell structures can be found in the fact that, due to their free-form and thus, due to the presence of bending forces, gridshells are required to resist loading through their cross-section. This research is divided into parts. A general study about the glass building and cable-glass and grid shell system will be done in the first chapters. Structural analyses and detailed analyses with schematic drawings with the plans, sections of the selected buildings will be explained in the second part. The third part it consists of the advantages and disadvantages of the use of the SGSPCT and Grid Shell in architecture. The study consists of four chapters including the introduction chapter. The general information of the SGSPCT and glazing system has been mentioned in the first chapter. Structural features, typologies, transparency principle and analytical information on systems have been explained of the selected buildings in the second chapter. The detailed analyses of case building have been done according to their schematic drawings with the plans, sections in the third chapter. After third chapter SGSPCT discussed on to the case building and selected buildings. SGSPCT systems have been compared with their advantages and disadvantages to the other systems. Advantages of cable-truss systems and SGSPCT have been concluded that the use of glass substrates in the last chapter.

Keywords: cable truss, glass, grid shell, transparency

Procedia PDF Downloads 412
563 Navigating the Digital Landscape: An Ethnographic Content Analysis of Black Youth's Encounters with Racially Traumatic Content on Social Media

Authors: Tiera Tanksley, Amanda M. McLeroy

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The advent of technology and social media has ushered in a new era of communication, providing platforms for news dissemination and cause advocacy. However, this digital landscape has also exposed a distressing phenomenon termed "Black death," or trauma porn. This paper delves into the profound effects of repeated exposure to traumatic content on Black youth via social media, exploring the psychological impacts and potential reinforcing of stereotypes. Employing Critical Race Technology Theory (CRTT), the study sheds light on algorithmic anti-blackness and its influence on Black youth's lives and educational experiences. Through ethnographic content analysis, the research investigates common manifestations of Black death encountered online by Black adolescents. Findings unveil distressing viral videos, traumatic images, racial slurs, and hate speech, perpetuating stereotypes. However, amidst the distress, the study identifies narratives of activism and social justice on social media platforms, empowering Black youth to engage in positive change. Coping mechanisms and community support emerge as significant factors in navigating the digital landscape. The study underscores the need for comprehensive interventions and policies informed by evidence-based research. By addressing algorithmic anti-blackness and promoting digital resilience, the paper advocates for a more empathetic and inclusive online environment. Understanding coping mechanisms and community support becomes imperative for fostering mental well-being among Black adolescents navigating social media. In education, the implications are substantial. Acknowledging the impact of Black death content, educators play a pivotal role in promoting media literacy and digital resilience. Creating inclusive and safe online spaces, educators can mitigate negative effects and encourage open discussions about traumatic content. The application of CRTT in educational technology emphasizes dismantling systemic biases and promoting equity. In conclusion, this study calls for educators to be cognizant of the impact of Black death content on social media. By prioritizing media literacy, fostering digital resilience, and advocating for unbiased technologies, educators contribute to an inclusive and just educational environment for all students, irrespective of their race or background. Addressing challenges related to Black death content proactively ensures the well-being and mental health of Black adolescents, fostering an empathetic and inclusive digital space.

Keywords: algorithmic anti-Blackness, digital resilience, media literacy, traumatic content

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562 Implications of Internationalization for Management and Practice in Higher Education

Authors: Naziema Begum Jappie

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The internationalization of higher education has become a focal point for academic institutions worldwide, including those in South Africa. This paper explores the multifaceted implications of internationalization on management and practice within the South African higher education landscape. Universities all over the world are increasingly recognizing the challenges of globalization and the pressures towards internationalization. Internationalization in higher education encompasses a range of activities, including academic exchange programs, research collaborations, joint degree programs, and the recruitment of international students and faculty. In South Africa, this process is driven by various factors, including the quest for global competitiveness, the pursuit of academic excellence, and the promotion of cultural diversity. However, while internationalization presents numerous opportunities, it also brings forth significant challenges that require careful consideration by management and practitioners in higher education institutions. Furthermore, the internationalization of higher education in South Africa has significant implications for teaching and learning practices. With an increasingly diverse student body, educators must employ innovative pedagogical approaches that cater to the needs and preferences of a multicultural cohort. This may involve the integration of global perspectives into the curriculum, the use of technology-enhanced learning platforms, and the promotion of intercultural competence among students and faculty. Additionally, the exchange of knowledge and ideas with international partners can enrich research activities and contribute to the advancement of knowledge in various fields. The internationalization of higher education in South Africa has profound implications for management and practice within academic institutions. While it offers opportunities for enhancing academic quality, promoting cultural exchange, and advancing research agendas, it also presents challenges that require strategic planning, resource allocation, and stakeholder engagement. By addressing these challenges proactively and leveraging the opportunities presented by internationalization, South African universities can position themselves as global leaders in higher education while contributing to the socio-economic development of the country and the continent at large. This paper draws together the international experience in South Africa to explore the emerging patterns of strategy and practice in internationalizing Higher Education and will highlight some critical notions of how the concepts of internationalization and globalization in the context of higher education are understood by those who lead universities and what new challenges are being created as universities seek to become more international. Institutions cannot simply have bullet points in the strategic plan for the recruitment of international students; there has to be a complete commitment to a national strategy of inclusivity. This paper will further examine the leadership styles that ensure transformation together with the goals set out for internationalization. Discussions around adding the international relations dimension to the curriculum. Addressing the issues relevant to cross-border delivery of higher education.

Keywords: challenges, higher education, internationalization, strategic focus

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561 The Sustained Utility of Japan's Human Security Policy

Authors: Maria Thaemar Tana

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The paper examines the policy and practice of Japan’s human security. Specifically, it asks the question: How does Japan’s shift towards a more proactive defence posture affect the place of human security in its foreign policy agenda? Corollary to this, how is Japan sustaining its human security policy? The objective of this research is to understand how Japan, chiefly through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) and JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency), sustains the concept of human security as a policy framework. In addition, the paper also aims to show how and why Japan continues to include the concept in its overall foreign policy agenda. In light of the recent developments in Japan’s security policy, which essentially result from the changing security environment, human security appears to be gradually losing relevance. The paper, however, argues that despite the strategic challenges Japan faced and is facing, as well as the apparent decline of its economic diplomacy, human security remains to be an area of critical importance for Japanese foreign policy. In fact, as Japan becomes more proactive in its international affairs, the strategic value of human security also increases. Human security was initially envisioned to help Japan compensate for its weaknesses in the areas of traditional security, but as Japan moves closer to a more activist foreign policy, the soft policy of human security complements its hard security policies. Using the framework of neoclassical realism (NCR), the paper recognizes that policy-making is essentially a convergence of incentives and constraints at the international and domestic levels. The theory posits that there is no perfect 'transmission belt' linking material power on the one hand, and actual foreign policy on the other. State behavior is influenced by both international- and domestic-level variables, but while systemic pressures and incentives determine the general direction of foreign policy, they are not strong enough to affect the exact details of state conduct. Internal factors such as leaders’ perceptions, domestic institutions, and domestic norms, serve as intervening variables between the international system and foreign policy. Thus, applied to this study, Japan’s sustained utilization of human security as a foreign policy instrument (dependent variable) is essentially a result of systemic pressures (indirectly) (independent variables) and domestic processes (directly) (intervening variables). Two cases of Japan’s human security practice in two regions are examined in two time periods: Iraq in the Middle East (2001-2010) and South Sudan in Africa (2011-2017). The cases show that despite the different motives behind Japan’s decision to participate in these international peacekeepings ad peace-building operations, human security continues to be incorporated in both rhetoric and practice, thus demonstrating that it was and remains to be an important diplomatic tool. Different variables at the international and domestic levels will be examined to understand how the interaction among them results in changes and continuities in Japan’s human security policy.

Keywords: human security, foreign policy, neoclassical realism, peace-building

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560 Potential of Aerodynamic Feature on Monitoring Multilayer Rough Surfaces

Authors: Ibtissem Hosni, Lilia Bennaceur Farah, Saber Mohamed Naceur

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In order to assess the water availability in the soil, it is crucial to have information about soil distributed moisture content; this parameter helps to understand the effect of humidity on the exchange between soil, plant cover and atmosphere in addition to fully understanding the surface processes and the hydrological cycle. On the other hand, aerodynamic roughness length is a surface parameter that scales the vertical profile of the horizontal component of the wind speed and characterizes the surface ability to absorb the momentum of the airflow. In numerous applications of the surface hydrology and meteorology, aerodynamic roughness length is an important parameter for estimating momentum, heat and mass exchange between the soil surface and atmosphere. It is important on this side, to consider the atmosphere factors impact in general, and the natural erosion in particular, in the process of soil evolution and its characterization and prediction of its physical parameters. The study of the induced movements by the wind over soil vegetated surface, either spaced plants or plant cover, is motivated by significant research efforts in agronomy and biology. The known major problem in this side concerns crop damage by wind, which presents a booming field of research. Obviously, most models of soil surface require information about the aerodynamic roughness length and its temporal and spatial variability. We have used a bi-dimensional multi-scale (2D MLS) roughness description where the surface is considered as a superposition of a finite number of one-dimensional Gaussian processes each one having a spatial scale using the wavelet transform and the Mallat algorithm to describe natural surface roughness. We have introduced multi-layer aspect of the humidity of the soil surface, to take into account a volume component in the problem of backscattering radar signal. As humidity increases, the dielectric constant of the soil-water mixture increases and this change is detected by microwave sensors. Nevertheless, many existing models in the field of radar imagery, cannot be applied directly on areas covered with vegetation due to the vegetation backscattering. Thus, the radar response corresponds to the combined signature of the vegetation layer and the layer of soil surface. Therefore, the key issue of the numerical estimation of soil moisture is to separate the two contributions and calculate both scattering behaviors of the two layers by defining the scattering of the vegetation and the soil blow. This paper presents a synergistic methodology, and it is for estimating roughness and soil moisture from C-band radar measurements. The methodology adequately represents a microwave/optical model which has been used to calculate the scattering behavior of the aerodynamic vegetation-covered area by defining the scattering of the vegetation and the soil below.

Keywords: aerodynamic, bi-dimensional, vegetation, synergistic

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559 De-Densifying Congested Cores of Cities and Their Emerging Design Opportunities

Authors: Faith Abdul Rasak Asharaf

Abstract:

Every city has a threshold known as urban carrying capacity based on which it can withstand a particular density of people, above which the city might need to resort to measures like expanding its boundaries or growing vertically. As a result of this circumstance, the number of squatter communities is growing, as is the claustrophobic feeling of being confined inside a "concrete jungle." The expansion of suburbs, commercial areas, and industrial real estate in the areas surrounding medium-sized cities has resulted in changes to their landscapes and urban forms, as well as a systematic shift in their role in the urban hierarchy when functional endowment and connections to other territories are considered. The urban carrying capacity idea provides crucial guidance for city administrators and planners in better managing, designing, planning, constructing, and distributing urban resources to satisfy the huge demands of an evergrowing urban population. An ecological footprint is a criterion of urban carrying capacity, which is the amount of land required to provide humanity with renewable resources and absorb its trash. However, as each piece of land has its unique carrying capacity, including ecological, social, and economic considerations, these metropolitan areas begin to reach a saturation point over time. Various city models have been tried throughout the years to meet the increasing urban population density by moving the zones of work, life, and leisure to achieve maximum sustainable growth. The current scenario is that of a vertical city and compact city concept, in which the maximum density of people is attempted to fit into a definite area using efficient land use and a variety of other strategies, but this has proven to be a very unsustainable method of growth, as evidenced by the COVID-19 period. Due to a shortage of housing and basic infrastructure, densely populated cities gave rise to massive squatter communities, unable to accommodate the overflowing migrants. To achieve optimum carrying capacity, planning measures such as polycentric city and diffuse city concepts can be implemented, which will help to relieve the congested city core by relocating certain sectors of the town to the city periphery, which will help to create newer spaces for design in terms of public space, transportation, and housing, which is a major concern in the current scenario. The study's goal is focused on suggesting design options and solutions in terms of placemaking for better urban quality and urban life for the citizens once city centres have been de-densified based on urban carrying capacity and ecological footprint, taking the case of Kochi as an apt example of a highly densified city core, focusing on Edappally, which is an agglomeration of many urban factors.

Keywords: urban carrying capacity, urbanization, urban sprawl, ecological footprint

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558 Cognitive Mechanisms of Mindfulness-Based Cognitive Therapy on Depressed Older Adults: The Mediating Role of Rumination and Autobiographical Memory Specificity

Authors: Wai Yan Shih, Sau Man Wong, Wing Chung Chang, Wai Chi Chan

Abstract:

Background: Late-life depression is associated with significant consequences. Although symptomatic reduction is achievable through pharmacological interventions, older adults are more vulnerable to the side effects than their younger counterparts. In addition, drugs do not address underlying cognitive dysfunctions such as rumination and reduced autobiographical memory specificity (AMS), both shown to be maladaptive coping styles that are associated with a poorer prognosis in depression. Considering how aging is accompanied by cognitive, psychological and physical changes, the interplay of these age-related factors may potentially aggravate and interfere with these depressive cognitive dysfunctions in late-life depression. Special care should, therefore, be drawn to ensure these cognitive dysfunctions are adequately addressed. Aim: This randomized controlled trial aims to examine the effect of mindfulness-based cognitive therapy (MBCT) on depressed older adults, and whether the potential benefits of MBCT are mediated by improvements in rumination and AMS. Method: Fifty-seven participants with an average age of 70 years old were recruited from multiple elderly centers and online mailing lists. Participants were assessed with: (1) Hamilton depression scale, (2) ruminative response scale, (3) autobiographical memory test, (4) mindful attention awareness scale, and (5) Montreal cognitive assessment. Eligible participants with mild to moderate depressive symptoms and normal cognitive functioning were randomly allocated to an 8-week MBCT group or active control group consisting of a low-intensity exercise program and health education. Post-intervention assessments were conducted after the 8-week program. Ethics approval was given by the Institutional Review Board of the University of Hong Kong/Hospital Authority. Results: Mixed-factorials ANOVAs demonstrated significant time x group interaction effects for depressive symptoms, AMS, and dispositional mindfulness. A marginally significant interaction effect was found for rumination. Simple effect analyses revealed a significant reduction in depressive symptoms for the both the MBCT group (mean difference = 7.1, p = .000), and control group (mean difference = 2.7, p = .023). However, only participants in the MBCT group demonstrated improvements in rumination, AMS, and dispositional mindfulness. Bootstrapping-based mediation analyses showed that the effect of MBCT in alleviating depressive symptoms was only mediated by the reduction in rumination. Conclusions: The findings support the use of MBCT as an effective intervention for depressed older adults, considering the improvements in depressive symptoms, rumination, AMS and dispositional mindfulness despite their age. Reduction in ruminative tendencies plays a major role in the cognitive mechanism of MBCT.

Keywords: mindfulness-based cognitive therapy, depression, older adults, rumination, autobiographical memory specificity

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557 (Re)connecting to the Spirit of the Language: Decolonizing from Eurocentric Indigenous Language Revitalization Methodologies

Authors: Lana Whiskeyjack, Kyle Napier

Abstract:

The Spirit of the language embodies the motivation for indigenous people to connect with the indigenous language of their lineage. While the concept of the spirit of the language is often woven into the discussion by indigenous language revitalizationists, particularly those who are indigenous, there are few tangible terms in academic research conceptually actualizing the term. Through collaborative work with indigenous language speakers, elders, and learners, this research sets out to identify the spirit of the language, the catalysts of disconnection from the spirit of the language, and the sources of reconnection to the spirit of the language. This work fundamentally addresses the terms of engagement around collaboration with indigenous communities, itself inviting a decolonial approach to community outreach and individual relationships. As indigenous researchers, this means beginning, maintain, and closing this work in the ceremony while being transparent with community members in this work and related publishing throughout the project’s duration. Decolonizing this approach also requires maintaining explicit ongoing consent by the elders, knowledge keepers, and community members when handling their ancestral and indigenous knowledge. The handling of this knowledge is regarded in this work as stewardship, both in the handling of digital materials and the handling of ancestral Indigenous knowledge. This work observes recorded conversations in both nêhiyawêwin and English, resulting from 10 semi-structured interviews with fluent nêhiyawêwin speakers as well as three structured dialogue circles with fluent and emerging speakers. The words were transcribed by a speaker fluent in both nêhiyawêwin and English. The results of those interviews were categorized thematically to conceptually actualize the spirit of the language, catalysts of disconnection to thespirit of the language, and community voices methods of reconnection to the spirit of the language. Results of these interviews vastly determine that the spirit of the language is drawn from the land. Although nêhiyawêwin is the focus of this work, Indigenous languages are by nature inherently related to the land. This is further reaffirmed by the Indigenous language learners and speakers who expressed having ancestries and lineages from multiple Indigenous communities. Several other key differences embody this spirit of the language, which include ceremony and spirituality, as well as the semantic worldviews tied to polysynthetic verb-oriented morphophonemics most often found in indigenous languages — and of focus, nêhiyawêwin. The catalysts of disconnection to the spirit of the language are those whose histories have severed connections between Indigenous Peoples and the spirit of their languages or those that have affected relationships with the land, ceremony, and ways of thinking. Results of this research and its literature review have determined the three most ubiquitously damaging interdependent factors, which are catalysts of disconnection from the spirit of the language as colonization, capitalism, and Christianity. As voiced by the Indigenous language learners, this work necessitates addressing means to reconnect to the spirit of the language. Interviewees mentioned that the process of reconnection involves a whole relationship with the land, the practice of reciprocal-relational methodologies for language learning, and indigenous-protected and -governed learning. This work concludes in support of those reconnection methodologies.

Keywords: indigenous language acquisition, indigenous language reclamation, indigenous language revitalization, nêhiyawêwin, spirit of the language

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556 Belarus Rivers Runoff: Current State, Prospects

Authors: Aliaksandr Volchak, Мaryna Barushka

Abstract:

The territory of Belarus is studied quite well in terms of hydrology but runoff fluctuations over time require more detailed research in order to forecast changes in rivers runoff in future. Generally, river runoff is shaped by natural climatic factors, but man-induced impact has become so big lately that it can be compared to natural processes in forming runoffs. In Belarus, a heavy man load on the environment was caused by large-scale land reclamation in the 1960s. Lands of southern Belarus were reclaimed most, which contributed to changes in runoff. Besides, global warming influences runoff. Today we observe increase in air temperature, decrease in precipitation, changes in wind velocity and direction. These result from cyclic climate fluctuations and, to some extent, the growth of concentration of greenhouse gases in the air. Climate change affects Belarus’s water resources in different ways: in hydropower industry, other water-consuming industries, water transportation, agriculture, risks of floods. In this research we have done an assessment of river runoff according to the scenarios of climate change and global climate forecast presented in the 4th and 5th Assessment Reports conducted by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and later specified and adjusted by experts from Vilnius Gediminas Technical University with the use of a regional climatic model. In order to forecast changes in climate and runoff, we analyzed their changes from 1962 up to now. This period is divided into two: from 1986 up to now in comparison with the changes observed from 1961 to 1985. Such a division is a common world-wide practice. The assessment has revealed that, on the average, changes in runoff are insignificant all over the country, even with its irrelevant increase by 0.5 – 4.0% in the catchments of the Western Dvina River and north-eastern part of the Dnieper River. However, changes in runoff have become more irregular both in terms of the catchment area and inter-annual distribution over seasons and river lengths. Rivers in southern Belarus (the Pripyat, the Western Bug, the Dnieper, the Neman) experience reduction of runoff all year round, except for winter, when their runoff increases. The Western Bug catchment is an exception because its runoff reduces all year round. Significant changes are observed in spring. Runoff of spring floods reduces but the flood comes much earlier. There are different trends in runoff changes in spring, summer, and autumn. Particularly in summer, we observe runoff reduction in the south and west of Belarus, with its growth in the north and north-east. Our forecast of runoff up to 2035 confirms the trend revealed in 1961 – 2015. According to it, in the future, there will be a strong difference between northern and southern Belarus, between small and big rivers. Although we predict irrelevant changes in runoff, it is quite possible that they will be uneven in terms of seasons or particular months. Especially, runoff can change in summer, but decrease in the rest seasons in the south of Belarus, whereas in the northern part the runoff is predicted to change insignificantly.

Keywords: assessment, climate fluctuation, forecast, river runoff

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