Search results for: predictive distribution

Authors: A. J. S. P. Nileema, S. Kulatunga , S. H. Palihawadana

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Computer aided detection (CAD) system was developed for the diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis using digital chest X-rays with MATLAB image processing techniques using a statistical approach. The study comprised of 200 digital chest radiographs collected from the National Hospital for Respiratory Diseases - Welisara, Sri Lanka. Pre-processing was done to remove identification details. Lung fields were segmented and then divided into four quadrants; right upper quadrant, left upper quadrant, right lower quadrant, and left lower quadrant using the image processing techniques in MATLAB. Contrast, correlation, homogeneity, energy, entropy, and maximum probability texture features were extracted using the gray level co-occurrence matrix method. Descriptive statistics and normal distribution analysis were performed using SPSS. Depending on the radiologists’ interpretation, chest radiographs were classified manually into PTB - positive (PTBP) and PTB - negative (PTBN) classes. Features with standard normal distribution were analyzed using an independent sample T-test for PTBP and PTBN chest radiographs. Among the six features tested, contrast, correlation, energy, entropy, and maximum probability features showed a statistically significant difference between the two classes at 95% confidence interval; therefore, could be used in the classification of chest radiograph for PTB diagnosis. With the resulting value ranges of the five texture features with normal distribution, a classification algorithm was then defined to recognize and classify the quadrant images; if the texture feature values of the quadrant image being tested falls within the defined region, it will be identified as a PTBP – abnormal quadrant and will be labeled as ‘Abnormal’ in red color with its border being highlighted in red color whereas if the texture feature values of the quadrant image being tested falls outside of the defined value range, it will be identified as PTBN–normal and labeled as ‘Normal’ in blue color but there will be no changes to the image outline. The developed classification algorithm has shown a high sensitivity of 92% which makes it an efficient CAD system and with a modest specificity of 70%.

Keywords: chest radiographs, computer aided detection, image processing, pulmonary tuberculosis

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Authors: M. Zafar, S. Rasheed, Imran Hashmi

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Very little is concerned about the bacterial contamination in drinking water biofilm which provide a potential source for bacteria to grow and increase rapidly. So as to understand the microbial density in DWDs, a three-month study was carried out. The aim of this study was to examine biofilm in three different pipe materials including PVC, PPR and GI. A set of all these pipe materials was installed in DWDs at nine different locations and assessed on monthly basis. Drinking water quality was evaluated by different parameters and characterization of biofilm. Among various parameters are Temperature, pH, turbidity, TDS, electrical conductivity, BOD, COD, total phosphates, total nitrates, total organic carbon (TOC) free chlorine and total chlorine, coliforms and spread plate counts (SPC) according to standard methods. Predominant species were Bacillus thuringiensis, Pseudomonas fluorescens , Staphylococcus haemolyticus, Bacillus safensis and significant increase in bacterial population was observed in PVC pipes while least in cement pipes. The quantity of DWDs bacteria was directly depended on biofilm bacteria and its increase was correlated with growth and detachment of bacteria from biofilms. Pipe material also affected the microbial community in drinking water distribution network biofilm while Similarity in bacterial species was observed between systems due to same disinfectant dose, time period and plumbing pipes.

Keywords: biofilm, DWDs, pipe material, bacterial population

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Authors: Siriporn Okonogi, Temsiri Suwan, Sakornrat Khongkhunthian, Jakkapan Sirithunyalug

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In this study, silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) were prepared using ascorbic acid as a reducing agent and silver nitrate as a precursor. The effects of gelatin (G) on particle characteristics and dental pathogen inhibition were investigated. The spectra of AgNPs and G-AgNPs were compared using UV-Vis and Energy-dispersive X-ray (EDX) spectroscopy. The obtained AgNPs and G-AgNPs showed the maximum absorption at 410 and 430 nm, respectively, and EDX spectra of both systems confirmed Ag element. Scanning electron microscope showed that AgNPs and G-AgNPs were spherical in shape. Particles size, size distribution, and zeta potential were determined using dynamic light scattering approach. The size of AgNPs and G-AgNPs were 56 ± 2.4 and 67 ± 3.6 nm, respectively with a size distribution of 0.23 ± 0.03 and 0.19 ± 0.02, respectively. AgNPs and G-AgNPs exhibited negative zeta potential of 24.1 ± 2.7 mV and 32.7 ± 1.2 mV, respectively. Minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) and minimum bactericidal concentration (MBC) of the obtained AgNPs and G-AgNPs against three strains of dental pathogenic bacteria; Streptococcus gordonii, Streptococcus mutans, and Staphylococcus aureus were determined using broth dilution method. AgNPs and G-AgNPs showed the strongest inhibition against S. gordonii with the MIC of 0.05 and 0.025 mg/mL, respectively and the MBC of 0.1 and 0.05 mg/mL, respectively. Cytotoxicity test of AgNPs and G-AgNPs on human breast cancer cells using MTT assay indicated that G-AgNPs (0.1 mg/mL) was significantly stronger toxic than AgNPs with the cell inhibition of 91.1 ± 5.4%. G-AgNPs showed significantly less aggregation after storage at room temperature for 90 days than G-AgNPs.

Keywords: antipathogenic activity, ascorbic acid, cytotoxicity, stability

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Authors: Hamisu Jibril

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The study explores changes in plant species composition along disturbance gradient in urban areas in Nigeria at Bayero University Kano campuses. The aim is to assess changes in plant species composition and distribution within a degraded dryland environment in Kano Metropolis, Nigeria. Vegetation sampling was conducted using plots quadrat and transect methods, and different plant species were identified in the three study sites. Data were analyzed using ANOVA, t-tests and conventional indices to compare species richness, evenness and diversity. The study found no significant differences in species frequency among sites or sampling methods but observed higher species richness, evenness and diversity values in grasses species compared to trees. The study addressed changes in plant species composition along a disturbance gradient in an urban environment, focusing on species richness, evenness, and diversity. The study contributes to understanding the vegetation dynamics in degraded urban environments and highlights the need for conservation efforts. The research also adds to the existing literature by confirming previous findings and suggesting re-planting efforts. The study suggests similarities in plant species composition between old and new campus areas and emphasizes the importance of further investigating factors leading to vegetation loss for conservation purposes.

Keywords: species diversity, urban kano, dryland environment, vegetation sampling

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Authors: Estela Díaz

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This article aims to make three contributions. First, build on the literature on ethical decision-making literature by exploring factors that influence the intention of adopting veganism. Second, study the superiority of extended models of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) for understanding the process involved in forming the intention of adopting veganism. Third, analyze the moderating effect of gender on TPB given that attitudes and behavior towards animals are gender-sensitive. No study, to our knowledge, has examined these questions. Veganism is not a diet but a political and moral stand that exclude, for moral reasons, the use of animals. Although there is a growing interest in studying veganism, it continues being overlooked in empirical research, especially within the domain of social psychology. TPB has been widely used to study a broad range of human behaviors, including moral issues. Nonetheless, TPB has rarely been applied to examine ethical decisions about animals and, even less, to veganism. Hence, the validity of TPB in predicting the intention of adopting veganism remains unanswered. A total of 476 non-vegan Spanish university students (55.6% female; the mean age was 23.26 years, SD= 6.1) responded to online and pencil-and-paper self-reported questionnaire based on previous studies. TPB extended models incorporated two background factors: ‘general attitudes towards humanlike-attributes ascribed to animals’ (AHA) (capacity for reason/emotions/suffer, moral consideration, and affect-towards-animals); and ‘general attitudes towards 11 uses of animals’ (AUA). SPSS 22 and SmartPLS 3.0 were used for statistical analyses. This study constructed a second-order reflective-formative model and took the multi-group analysis (MGA) approach to study gender effects. Six models of TPB (the standard and five competing) were tested. No a priori hypotheses were formulated. The results gave partial support to TPB. Attitudes (ATTV) (β = .207, p < .001), subjective norms (SNV) (β = .323, p < .001), and perceived control behavior (PCB) (β = .149, p < .001) had a significant direct effect on intentions (INTV). This model accounted for 27,9% of the variance in intention (R2Adj = .275) and had a small predictive relevance (Q2 = .261). However, findings from this study reveal that contrary to what TPB generally proposes, the effect of the background factors on intentions was not fully mediated by the proximal constructs of intentions. For instance, in the final model (Model#6), both factors had significant multiple indirect effect on INTV (β = .074, 95% C = .030, .126 [AHA:INTV]; β = .101, 95% C = .055, .155 [AUA:INTV]) and significant direct effect on INTV (β = .175, p < .001 [AHA:INTV]; β = .100, p = .003 [AUA:INTV]). Furthermore, the addition of direct paths from background factors to intentions improved the explained variance in intention (R2 = .324; R2Adj = .317) and the predictive relevance (Q2 = .300) over the base-model. This supports existing literature on the superiority of enhanced TPB models to predict ethical issues; which suggests that moral behavior may add additional complexity to decision-making. Regarding gender effect, MGA showed that gender only moderated the influence of AHA on ATTV (e.g., βWomen−βMen = .296, p < .001 [Model #6]). However, other observed gender differences (e.g. the explained variance of the model for intentions were always higher for men that for women, for instance, R2Women = .298; R2Men = .394 [Model #6]) deserve further considerations, especially for developing more effective communication strategies.

Keywords: veganism, Theory of Planned Behavior, background factors, gender moderation

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Authors: Bronwen Wade

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Over the last half-century, child welfare systems have increasingly relied on quantitative risk assessment tools, such as actuarial or predictive risk tools. These tools are developed by performing statistical analysis of how attributes captured in administrative data are related to future child maltreatment. Some scholars argue that attributes in administrative data can serve as proxies for race and that quantitative risk assessment tools reify racial bias in decision-making. Others argue that these tools provide more “objective” and “scientific” guides for decision-making instead of subjective social worker judgment. This study performs a systematic review of the literature on the impact of quantitative risk assessment tools on racial disproportionality; it examines methodological biases in work on this topic, summarizes key findings, and provides suggestions for further work. A search of CINAHL, PsychInfo, Proquest Social Science Premium Collection, and the ProQuest Dissertations and Theses Collection was performed. Academic and grey literature were included. The review includes studies that use quasi-experimental methods and development, validation, or re-validation studies of quantitative risk assessment tools. PROBAST (Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool) and CHARMS (CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies) were used to assess the risk of bias and guide data extraction for risk development, validation, or re-validation studies. ROBINS-I (Risk of Bias in Non-Randomized Studies of Interventions) was used to assess for bias and guide data extraction for the quasi-experimental studies identified. Due to heterogeneity among papers, a meta-analysis was not feasible, and a narrative synthesis was conducted. 11 papers met the eligibility criteria, and each has an overall high risk of bias based on the PROBAST and ROBINS-I assessments. This is deeply concerning, as major policy decisions have been made based on a limited number of studies with a high risk of bias. The findings on racial disproportionality have been mixed and depend on the tool and approach used. Authors use various definitions for racial equity, fairness, or disproportionality. These concepts of statistical fairness are connected to theories about the reason for racial disproportionality in child welfare or social definitions of fairness that are usually not stated explicitly. Most findings from these studies are unreliable, given the high degree of bias. However, some of the less biased measures within studies suggest that quantitative risk assessment tools may worsen racial disproportionality, depending on how disproportionality is mathematically defined. Authors vary widely in their approach to defining and addressing racial disproportionality within studies, making it difficult to generalize findings or approaches across studies. This review demonstrates the power of authors to shape policy or discourse around racial justice based on their choice of statistical methods; it also demonstrates the need for improved rigor and transparency in studies of quantitative risk assessment tools. Finally, this review raises concerns about the impact that these tools have on child welfare systems and racial disproportionality.

Keywords: actuarial risk, child welfare, predictive risk, racial disproportionality

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Authors: Melik Kara, Gulsah Tulger Kara

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The soil is a crucial component of the ecosystem, and in industrial and urban areas it receives large amounts of trace elements from several sources. Therefore, accumulated pollutants in surface soils can be transported to different environmental components, such as deep soil, water, plants, and dust particles. While elemental contamination of soils is caused mainly by atmospheric deposition, soil also affects the air quality since enriched trace elemental contents in atmospheric particulate matter originate from resuspension of polluted soils. The objectives of this study were to determine the total and leachate concentrations of trace elements in soils of city area in Izmir and characterize their spatial distribution and to identify the possible sources of trace elements in surface soils. The surface soil samples were collected from 20 sites. They were analyzed for total element concentrations and leachate concentrations. Analyses of trace elements (Ag, Al, As, B, Ba, Be, Bi, Ca, Cd, Ce, Co, Cr, Cs, Cu, Dy, Er, Eu, Fe, Ga, Gd, Hf, Ho, K, La, Li, Lu, Mg, Mn, Mo, Na, Nd, Ni, P, Pb, Pr, Rb, Sb, Sc, Se, Si, Sm, Sn, Sr, Tb, Th, Ti, Tl, Tm, U, V, W, Y, Yb, Zn and Zr) were carried out using ICP-MS (Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometer). The elemental concentrations were calculated along with overall median, kurtosis, and skewness statistics. Elemental composition indicated that the soil samples were dominated by crustal elements such as Si, Al, Fe, Ca, K, Mg and the sea salt element, Na which is typical for Aegean region. These elements were followed by Ti, P, Mn, Ba and Sr. On the other hand, Zn, Cr, V, Pb, Cu, and Ni (which are anthropogenic based elements) were measured as 61.6, 39.4, 37.9, 26.9, 22.4, and 19.4 mg/kg dw, respectively. The leachate element concentrations were showed similar sorting although their concentrations were much lower than total concentrations. In the study area, the spatial distribution patterns of elemental concentrations varied among sampling sites. The highest concentrations were measured in the vicinity of industrial areas and main roads. To determine the relationships among elements and to identify the possible sources, PCA (Principal Component Analysis) was applied to the data. The analysis resulted in six factors. The first factor exhibited high loadings of Co, K, Mn, Rb, V, Al, Fe, Ni, Ga, Se, and Cr. This factor could be interpreted as residential heating because of Co, K, Rb, and Se. The second factor associated positively with V, Al, Fe, Na, Ba, Ga, Sr, Ti, Se, and Si. Therefore, this factor presents mixed city dust. The third factor showed high loadings with Fe, Ni, Sb, As, Cr. This factor could be associated with industrial facilities. The fourth factor associated with Cu, Mo, Zn, Sn which are the marker elements of traffic. The fifth factor presents crustal dust, due to its high correlation with Si, Ca, and Mg. The last factor is loaded with Pb and Cd emitted from industrial activities.

Keywords: trace elements, surface soil, source apportionment, Izmir

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Authors: Muhammad G. Almatar, Mohammad A. Alnasrallah

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This research focuses on the study of three main issues: 1) The temporal analysis of leukemia for a period of six years (2006-2012), 2) spatial analysis by investigating this phenomenon in the Kuwaiti society spatially in the residential areas within the six governorates, 3) the use of Geographic Information System technology in investigating the hypothesis of the research and its variables using the linear regression, to show the pattern of linear relationship. The study depends on utilizing the map to understand the distribution of blood cancer in Kuwait. Several geodatabases were created for the number of patients and air pollution. Spatial interpolation models were used to generate layers of air pollution in the study area. These geodatabases were tested over the past six years to reach the conclusion: Is there a relationship with significant significance between the two main variables of the study: blood cancer and air pollution? This study is the first to our best knowledge. As far as the researchers know, the distribution of this disease has not been studied geographically at the level of regions in Kuwait within six years and in specific areas as described above. This study investigates the concentration of this type of disease. The study found that there is no relationship of significant value between the two variables studied, and this may be due to the nature of the disease, which are often hereditary. On the other hand, this study has reached a number of suggestions and recommendations that may be useful to decision-makers and interested in the study of leukemia in Kuwait by focusing on the study of genetic diseases, which may be a cause of leukemia rather than air pollution.

Keywords: Kuwait, GIS, cancer, geography

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Authors: Bayole Omoniyi

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This study demonstrates the value of outcrops as analogues for evaluating reservoir quality of sandbody in a typical high-sinuosity fluvial system. The study utilized data acquired from selected outcrops in the Campanian-Maastrichtian siliciclastic succession of the western flank of Anambra Basin, southern Nigeria. Textural properties derived from outcrop samples were correlated and compared with porosity and permeability using established standard charts. Porosity was estimated from thin sections of selected samples to reduce uncertainty in the estimates. Following facies classification, 14 distinct facies were grouped into three facies associations (FA1-FA3) and were subsequently modeled as discrete properties in a block-centered Cartesian grid on a scale that captures geometry of principal sandbodies. Porosity and permeability estimated from charts were populated in the grid using comparable geostatistical techniques that reflect their spatial distribution. The resultant models were conditioned to facies property to honour available data. The results indicate a strong control of geometrical parameters on facies distribution, lateral continuity and connectivity with resultant effect on porosity and permeability distribution. Sand-prone FA1 and FA2 display reservoir quality that varies internally from channel axis to margin in each succession. Furthermore, isolated stack pattern of sandbodies reduces static connectivity and thus, increases risk of poor communication between reservoir-quality sandbodies. FA3 is non-reservoir because it is mud-prone. In conclusion, the risk of poor communication between sandbodies may be effectively accentuated in reservoirs that have similar architecture because of thick lateral accretion deposits, usually mudstone, that tend to disconnect good-quality point-bar sandbodies. In such reservoirs, mudstone may act as a barrier to impede flow vertically from one sandbody to another and laterally at the margins of each channel-fill succession in the system. The development plan, therefore, must be designed to effectively mitigate these risks and the risk of stratigraphic compartmentalization for maximum hydrocarbon recovery.

Keywords: analogues, architecture, connectivity, fluvial

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Authors: Surachai Ampawasuvan, Supornchai Utainarumol

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Most of fuel station’ customers, who drive on the major arterial road wants to use the stations to fill fuel to their vehicle during their journey to destinations. According to the survey of traffic volume of the vehicle using fuel stations by video cameras, automatic counting tools, or questionnaires, it was found that most users prefer to use fuel stations on holiday rather than on working day. They also prefer to use fuel stations in the morning rather than in the evening. When comparing the ratio of the distribution pattern of traffic volume of the vehicle using fuel stations by video cameras, automatic counting tools, there is no significant difference. However, when comparing the ratio of peak hour (peak hour rate) of the results from questionnaires at 13 to 14 percent with the results obtained by using the methods of the Institute of Transportation Engineering (ITE), it is found that the value is similar. However, it is different from a survey by video camera and automatic traffic counting at 6 to 7 percent of about half. So, this study suggests that in order to forecast trip generation of vehicle using fuel stations on major arterial road which is mostly characterized by Though Traffic, it is recommended to use the value of half of peak hour rate, which would make the forecast for trips generation to be more precise and accurate and compatible to surrounding environment.

Keywords: peak rate, trips generation, fuel station, arterial road

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Authors: E. A. Alshaafi, A. Prakash

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Oil-water emulsions are commonly encountered in various industrial operations and at different stages of crude oil production and processing. Emulsions are often difficult to track and treat and can cause a number of costly problems which need to be avoided. The characteristics of the emulsion phase can vary with crude composition and types of impurities present in oil. The objectives of this study are the development of ultrasonic techniques to track and characterize emulsion phase generated during production and cleaning of crude oil. The position of emulsion layer is monitored with the help of ultrasonic probes suitably placed in the vessel. The sensitivity of the technique and its potential has been demonstrated based on extensive testing with different oil samples. The technique is also being developed to monitor emulsion phase characteristics such as stability, composition, and droplet size distribution. The ultrasonic parameters recorded are changes in acoustic velocity, signal attenuation and its frequency spectrum. Emulsion has been prepared with light mineral oil sample and the effects of various factors including mixing speed, temperature, surfactant, and solid particles concentrations have been investigated. The applied frequency for ultrasonic waves has been varied from 1 to 5 MHz to carry out a sensitivity analysis. Emulsion droplet structure is observed with optical microscopy and stability is examined by tracking the changes in ultrasonic parameters with time. A model based on ultrasonic attenuation spectroscopy is being developed and tested to track changes in droplet size distribution with time.

Keywords: ultrasonic techniques, emulsion, characterization, droplet size

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Authors: G. V. Siva Krishna Rao, B. Srinivasa Rao

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Electrical energy is vital in every aspect of day-to-day life. Keen interest is taken on all possible sources of energy from which it can be generated and this led to the encouragement of generating electrical power using renewable energy resources such as solar, tidal waves and wind energy. Due to the increasing interest on renewable sources in recent times, the studies on integration of distributed generation to the power grid have rapidly increased. Distributed Generation (DG) is a promising solution to many power system problems such as voltage regulation, power loss and reduction in operational cost, etc. To reduce production cost, it is important to minimize the losses by determining the location and size of local generators to be placed in the radial distribution systems. In this paper, reduction of production cost by optimal size of DG unit operated at optimal power factor is dealt. The optimal size of the DG unit is calculated analytically using approximate reasoning suitable nodes and DG placement to minimize production cost with minimum loss is determined by fuzzy technique. Total Cost of Power generation is compared with and without DG unit for 1 year duration. The suggested method is programmed under MATLAB software and is tested on IEEE 33 bus system and the results are presented.

Keywords: distributed generation, operational cost, exact loss formula, optimum size, optimum location

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Authors: Pawan Kumar, Dhananjoy Shaw, Manoj Kumar Rathi

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Purpose of the study were to compare between (a) frequencies among the four quartiles of percentile norms of autonomic variables from power events and (b) frequencies among the four quartiles percentile norms of autonomic variables from aerobic events of Indian sportspersons withdrawn from competitive games and sports in regard to number of samples falling in each quartile. The study was conducted on 430 males of 30 to 35 years of age. Based on the nature of game/sports the retired sportspersons were classified into power events (throwers, judo players, wrestlers, short distance swimmers, cricket fast bowlers and power lifters) and aerobic events (long distance runners, long distance swimmers, water polo players). Date was collected using ECG polygraphs. Data were processed and extracted using frequency domain analysis and time domain analysis. Collected data were computed with frequency, percentage of each quartile and finally the frequencies were compared with the chi square analysis. The finding pertaining to norm reference comparison of frequencies among the four quartiles of Indian sportspersons withdrawn from competitive games and sports from (a) power events suggests that frequency distribution in four quartile namely Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4 are significantly different at .05 level in regard to variables namely, SDNN, Total Power (Absolute Power), HF (Absolute Power), LF (Normalized Power), HF (Normalized Power), LF/HF ratio, deep breathing test, expiratory respiratory ratio, valsalva manoeuvre, hand grip test, cold pressor test and lying to standing test, whereas, insignificantly different at .05 level in regard to variables namely, SDSD, RMSSD, SDANN, NN50 Count, pNN50 Count, LF (Absolute Power) and 30: 15 Ratio (b) aerobic events suggests that frequency distribution in four quartile are significantly different at .05 level in regard to variables namely, SDNN, LF (Normalized Power), HF (Normalized Power), LF/HF ratio, deep breathing test, expiratory respiratory ratio, hand grip test, cold pressor test, lying to standing test and 30: 15 ratio, whereas, insignificantly different at .05 level in regard to variables namely, SDSD, RMSSD. SDANN, NN50 count, pNN50 count, Total Power (Absolute Power), LF(Absolute Power) HF(Absolute Power), and valsalva manoeuvre. The study concluded that comparison of frequencies among the four quartiles of Indian retired sportspersons from power events and aerobic events are different in four quartiles in regard to selected autonomic functions, hence the developed percentile norms are not homogenously distributed across the percentile scale; hence strengthen the percentage distribution towards normal distribution.

Keywords: power, aerobic, absolute power, normalized power

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Authors: Kefaifi Aissa, Sahraoui Tahar, Kheloufi Abdelkrim, Anas Sabiha, Hannane Farouk

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The aim of this study is to show how the Design of Experiments Method (DOE) can be put into use as a practical approach for silica sand etching behavior modeling during its primary step of leaching. In the present work, we have studied etching effect on particle size during a primary step of leaching process on Algerian silica sand with florid acid (HF) at 20% and 30 % during 4 and 8 hours. Therefore, a new purity of the sand is noted depending on the time of leaching. This study was expanded by a numerical approach using a method of experiment design, which shows the influence of each parameter and the interaction between them in the process and approved the obtained experimental results. This model is a predictive approach using hide software. Based on the measured parameters experimentally in the interior of the model, the use of DOE method can make it possible to predict the outside parameters of the model in question and can give us the optimize response without making the experimental measurement.

Keywords: acid leaching, design of experiments method(DOE), purity silica, silica etching

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Authors: Nikki Berrange, Gizelle Willows

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Business rescue has become increasingly popular since its inclusion in the Companies Act of South Africa in May 2011. The Alternate Exchange (AltX) of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange has experienced a marked increase in the number of companies entering business rescue. This study sampled twenty companies listed on the AltX to determine whether Altman’s Z-score model for emerging markets (ZEM) or Taffler’s Z-score model is a more accurate model in predicting financial distress for small to medium size companies in South Africa. The study was performed over three different time horizons; one, two and three years prior to the event of financial distress, in order to determine how many companies each model predicted would be unlikely to succeed as well as the predictive ability and accuracy of the respective models. The study found that Taffler’s Z-score model had a greater ability at predicting financial distress from all three-time horizons.

Keywords: Altman’s ZEM-score, Altman’s Z-score, AltX, business rescue, Taffler’s Z-score

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Authors: S. Cobos-Guzman

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This paper presents the results of a mechatronic design based on a 4-wheel omnidirectional mobile robot that can be used in indoor logistic applications. The low-level control has been selected using two open-source hardware (Raspberry Pi 3 Model B+ and Arduino Mega 2560) that control four industrial motors, four ultrasound sensors, four optical encoders, a vision system of two cameras, and a Hokuyo URG-04LX-UG01 laser scanner. Moreover, the system is powered with a lithium battery that can supply 24 V DC and a maximum current-hour of 20Ah.The Robot Operating System (ROS) has been implemented in the Raspberry Pi and the performance is evaluated with the selection of the sensors and hardware selected. The mechatronic system is evaluated and proposed safe modes of power distribution for controlling all the electronic devices based on different tests. Therefore, based on different performance results, some recommendations are indicated for using the Raspberry Pi and Arduino in terms of power, communication, and distribution of control for different devices. According to these recommendations, the selection of sensors is distributed in both real-time controllers (Arduino and Raspberry Pi). On the other hand, the drivers of the cameras have been implemented in Linux and a python program has been implemented to access the cameras. These cameras will be used for implementing a deep learning algorithm to recognize people and objects. In this way, the level of intelligence can be increased in combination with the maps that can be obtained from the laser scanner.

Keywords: autonomous, indoor robot, mechatronic, omnidirectional robot

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Authors: Yue Shuai Zhao, Rong Ping Shao, Wei Sun, Guo Hua Ren, Yong Wang, Li Chen Sun

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A large-scale cryopump (DN1250) used in large vacuum leak detecting system was designed and its performance experimentally investigated by Beijing Institute of Spacecraft Environment Engineering. The cryopump was cooled by four closed cycle helium refrigerators (two dual stage refrigerators and two single stage refrigerators). Detailed numerical analysis of the heat transfer in the first stage array and the second stage array were performed by using computational fluid dynamic method (CFD). Several design parameters were considered to find the effect on the temperature distribution and the cooldown time. The variation of thermal conductivity and heat capacity with temperature was taken into account. The thermal analysis method based on numerical techniques was introduced in this study, the heat transfer in the first stage array and the second stage cryopanel was carefully analyzed to determine important considerations in the thermal design of the cryopump. A performance test system according to the RNEUROP standards was built to test main performance of the cryopump. The experimental results showed that the structure of first stage array which was optimized by the method could meet the requirement of the cryopump well. The temperature of the cryopanel was down to 10K within 300 min, and the result of the experiment was accordant with theoretical analysis' conclusion. The test also showed that the pumping speed for N2 of the pump was up to 57,000 L/s, and the crossover was over than 300,000 Pa•L.

Keywords: cryopump, temperature distribution, thermal analysis, CFD Simulation

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Authors: Wildan Syafitri

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The main purpose of the development is to embody public welfare. Its indication is shown by the increasing of the public prosperity in which it will be related to the consumption level as a consequence of the increasing of public income. One of the government’s efforts to increase public welfare is to create development equity in order to alleviate poor people. Poverty’s problem is not merely about the number and percentage of the poor people, but also it includes the gap and severity of poverty.the analysis method used is Benefit Incidence Analysis (BIA) that is an analysis method used to disclose the impact of government policy or individual access based on the income distribution in society. Further, the finding of the study revealed is that the highest number of the poor people in the village is those who are unemployed and have family members who are still in the Junior High School. The income distribution calculation shows a fairly good budget allocation applied with good mass ratio that is 0.31. In addition, the finding of this study also discloses that Indonesian Government policy to subsidize education cost for Elementary and Junior High School students has reached the right target. It is indicated by more benefits received by Elementary and Junior High School students who are poor and very poor than other income group.

Keywords: benefit incidence analysis, budget allocation, poverty, education

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Authors: Evy Van Puymbroeck, Wim Nagy, Ken Schotte, Heng Fang, Hans De Backer

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The knowledge of residual stresses for welded bridge components is essential to determine the effect of the residual stresses on the fatigue life behavior. The residual stresses of an orthotropic bridge deck are determined by simulating the welding process with finite element modelling. The stiffener is placed on top of the deck plate before welding. A chained thermal-mechanical analysis is set up to determine the distribution of residual stresses for the bridge deck. First, a thermal analysis is used to determine the temperatures of the orthotropic deck for different time steps during the welding process. Twin wire submerged arc welding is used to construct the orthotropic plate. A double ellipsoidal volume heat source model is used to describe the heat flow through a material for a moving heat source. The heat input is used to determine the heat flux which is applied as a thermal load during the thermal analysis. The heat flux for each element is calculated for different time steps to simulate the passage of the welding torch with the considered welding speed. This results in a time dependent heat flux that is applied as a thermal loading. Thermal material behavior is specified by assigning the properties of the material in function of the high temperatures during welding. Isotropic hardening behavior is included in the model. The thermal analysis simulates the heat introduced in the two plates of the orthotropic deck and calculates the temperatures during the welding process. After the calculation of the temperatures introduced during the welding process in the thermal analysis, a subsequent mechanical analysis is performed. For the boundary conditions of the mechanical analysis, the actual welding conditions are considered. Before welding, the stiffener is connected to the deck plate by using tack welds. These tack welds are implemented in the model. The deck plate is allowed to expand freely in an upwards direction while it rests on a firm and flat surface. This behavior is modelled by using grounded springs. Furthermore, symmetry points and lines are used to prevent the model to move freely in other directions. In the thermal analysis, a mechanical material model is used. The calculated temperatures during the thermal analysis are introduced during the mechanical analysis as a time dependent load. The connection of the elements of the two plates in the fusion zone is realized with a glued connection which is activated when the welding temperature is reached. The mechanical analysis results in a distribution of the residual stresses. The distribution of the residual stresses of the orthotropic bridge deck is compared with results from literature. Literature proposes uniform tensile yield stresses in the weld while the finite element modelling showed tensile yield stresses at a short distance from the weld root or the weld toe. The chained thermal-mechanical analysis results in a distribution of residual weld stresses for an orthotropic bridge deck. In future research, the effect of these residual stresses on the fatigue life behavior of welded bridge components can be studied.

Keywords: finite element modelling, residual stresses, thermal-mechanical analysis, welding simulation

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Authors: Merve Aygün Esastürk, Deren Ataç Yılmaz, Görkem Oğur, Emre Özgen Kuzu, Sadık Ödemiş

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Hydrocracker plants are one of the most complicated and most profitable units in the refinery process. It takes long chain paraffinic hydrocarbons as feed and turns them into smaller and more valuable products, mainly kerosene and diesel under high pressure with the excess amount of hydrogen. Controlling the product qualities well directly contributes to the unit profit. Control of a plant is mainly based on PID and MPC controllers. Controlling the reaction section is important in terms of reaction severity. However, controlling the fractionation section is more crucial since the end products are separated in fractionation section. In this paper, the importance of well-configured base layer control mechanism, composed of PID controllers, is highlighted. For this purpose, two different base layer control scheme is applied in a hydrocracker fractionator column performances of schemes, which is a direct contribution to better product quality, are compared.

Keywords: controller, distillation, configuration selection, hydrocracker, model predictive controller, proportional-integral-derivative controller

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Authors: Rabiatu Bonku, Faisal Alkaabneh

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Inspired by a food banks distribution operation for non-profit organization, we study a variant synchronized vehicle routing problem for equitable resource allocation. This research paper introduces a Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) model aimed at addressing the complex challenge of efficiently distributing vital resources, particularly for food banks serving vulnerable populations in urban areas. Our optimization approach places a strong emphasis on social equity, ensuring a fair allocation of food to partner agencies while minimizing wastage. The primary objective is to enhance operational efficiency while guaranteeing fair distribution and timely deliveries to prevent food spoilage. Furthermore, we assess four distinct models that consider various aspects of sustainability, including social and economic factors. We conduct a comprehensive numerical analysis using real-world data to gain insights into the trade-offs that arise, while also demonstrating the models’ performance in terms of fairness, effectiveness, and the percentage of food waste. This provides valuable managerial insights for food bank managers. We show that our proposed approach makes a significant contribution to the field of logistics optimization and social responsibility, offering valuable insights for improving the operations of food banks.

Keywords: food banks, humanitarian logistics, equitable resource allocation, synchronized vehicle routing

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Authors: Vladimir A. Todiras

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Spatio-temporal models provide new possibilities for real-time action in pest risk analysis. It should be noted that estimation of the possibility and probability of introduction of a pest and of its economic consequences involves many uncertainties. We present a new mapping technique that assesses pest invasion risk using online BioClass software. BioClass is a GIS tool designed to solve multiple-criteria classification and optimization problems based on fuzzy logic and level set methods. This research describes a method for predicting the potential establishment and spread of a plant pest into new areas using a case study: corn rootworm (Diabrotica spp.), tomato leaf miner (Tuta absoluta) and plum fruit moth (Grapholita funebrana). Our study demonstrated that in BioClass we can combine fuzzy logic and geographic information systems with knowledge of pest biology and environmental data to derive new information for decision making. Pests are sensitive to a warming climate, as temperature greatly affects their survival and reproductive rate and capacity. Changes have been observed in the distribution, frequency and severity of outbreaks of Helicoverpa armigera on tomato. BioClass has demonstrated to be a powerful tool for applying dynamic models and map the potential future distribution of a species, enable resource to make decisions about dangerous and invasive species management and control.

Keywords: classification, model, pest, risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 274

Authors: Milica Karadzic, Lidija Jevric, Sanja Podunavac-Kuzmanovic, Strahinja Kovacevic, Aleksandra Tepic-Horecki, Zdravko Sumic

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In this paper, the influence of six different phytochemical content (phenols, carotenoids, chlorophyll a, chlorophyll b, chlorophyll a + b and vitamin C) on antioxidant potential of Murai and Levistro lettuce varieties was evaluated. Variable selection was made by generalized pair correlation method (GPCM) as a novel ranking method. This method is used for the discrimination between two variables that almost equal correlate to a dependent variable. Fisher’s conditional exact and McNemar’s test were carried out. Established multiple linear (MLR) models were statistically evaluated. As the best phytochemicals for the antioxidant potential prediction, chlorophyll a, chlorophyll a + b and total carotenoids content stand out. This was confirmed through both GPCM and MLR, predictive ability of obtained MLR can be used for antioxidant potential estimation for similar lettuce samples. This article is based upon work from the project of the Provincial Secretariat for Science and Technological Development of Vojvodina (No. 114-451-347/2015-02).

Keywords: antioxidant activity, generalized pair correlation method, lettuce, regression analysis

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Authors: Rong Li, Brian D. Wirth, Bing Liu

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Graphite is the matrix, and structural material in the high temperature gas-cooled reactor exhibits an irradiation response. It is of significant importance to analyze the defect production and evaluate the role of graphite under irradiation. A vast experimental literature exists for graphite on the dimensional change, mechanical properties, and thermal behavior. However, simulations have not been applied to the atomistic perspective. Remarkably few molecular dynamics simulations have been performed to study the irradiation response in graphite. In this paper, irradiation-induced damage cascades in graphite were investigated with molecular dynamics simulation. Statistical results of the graphite defects were obtained by sampling a wide energy range (1–30 KeV) and 10 different runs for every cascade simulation with different random number generator seeds to the velocity scaling thermostat function. The chemical bonding in carbon was described using the adaptive intermolecular reactive empirical bond-order potential (AIREBO) potential coupled with the standard Ziegler–Biersack–Littmack (ZBL) potential to describe close-range pair interactions. This study focused on analyzing the number of defects, the final cascade morphology and the distribution of defect clusters in space, the length-scale cascade properties such as the cascade length and the range of primary knock-on atom (PKA), and graphite mechanical properties’ variation. It can be concluded that the number of surviving Frenkel pairs increased remarkably with the increasing initial PKA energy but did not exhibit a thermal spike at slightly lower energies in this paper. The PKA range and cascade length approximately linearly with energy which indicated that increasing the PKA initial energy will come at expensive computation cost such as 30KeV in this study. The cascade morphology and the distribution of defect clusters in space mainly related to the PKA energy meanwhile the temperature effect was relatively negligible. The simulations are in agreement with known experimental results and the Kinchin-Pease model, which can help to understand the graphite damage cascades and lifetime span under irradiation and provide a direction to the designs of these kinds of structural materials in the future reactors.

Keywords: graphite damage cascade, molecular dynamics, cascade morphology, cascade distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 145

Authors: Jou-An Chen, Julio Castillo, Errol Duncan Cason, Gabre Kemp, Leana Esterhuizen, Angel Valverde Portal, Esta Van Heerden

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Emerging contaminants (EC) such as pharmaceutical and personal care products have been accumulating for years in water bodies all over the world. However, very little is known about the occurrences, levels, and effects of ECs in South African water resources. This study provides an initial assessment of the distribution of eight ECs (Acetaminophen, Atrazine, Terbuthlyazine, Carbamazepine, Phenyton, Sulfmethoxazole, Nevirapine and Fluconozole) in fifteen water sources from the Free State and Easter Cape provinces of South Africa. Overall, the physiochemical conditions were different in surface and groundwater samples, with concentrations of several elements such as B, Ca, Mg, Na, NO3, and TDS been statistically higher in groundwater. In contrast, ECs levels, quantified at ng/mL using the LC/MS/ESI, were much lower in groundwater samples. The ECs with higher contamination levels were Carbamazepine, Sulfmethoxazole, Nevirapine, and Terbuthlyazine, while the most widespread were Sulfmethoxazole and Fluconozole, detected in all surface and groundwater samples. Fecal and E. coli tests indicated that surface water was more contaminated than groundwater. Microbial communities, assessed using NGS, were dominated by the phyla Proteobacteria and Bacteroidetes, in both surface and groundwater. Actinobacteria, Planctomycetes, and Cyanobacteria, were more dominant in surface water, while Verrucomicrobia were overrepresented in groundwater. In conclusion, ECs contamination is closely associated with human activities (human wastes). The microbial diversity identified can suggest possible biodegradation processes.

Keywords: emerging contaminants, EC, personal care products, pharmaceuticals, natural attenuation process

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Authors: Mohammad Shajid Rahman, Tarik Kaya, Edgar Matida

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Electronic cigarettes, also known as e-cigarettes, may have become a tool to improve smoking cessation due to their ability to provide nicotine at a selected rate. Unlike traditional cigarettes, which produce toxic elements from tobacco combustion, e-cigarettes generate aerosols by heating a liquid solution (commonly a mixture of propylene glycol, vegetable glycerin, nicotine and some flavoring agents). However, caution still needs to be taken when using e-cigarettes due to the presence of addictive nicotine and some harmful substances produced from the heating process. Particle size distribution (PSD) and associated velocities generated by e-cigarettes have significant influence on aerosol deposition in different regions of human respiratory tracts. On another note, low actuation power is beneficial in aerosol generating devices since it exhibits a reduced emission of toxic chemicals. In case of e-cigarettes, lower heating powers can be considered as powers lower than 10 W compared to a wide range of powers (0.6 to 70.0 W) studied in literature. Due to the importance regarding inhalation risk reduction, deeper understanding of particle size characteristics of e-cigarettes demands thorough investigation. However, comprehensive study on PSD and velocities of e-cigarettes with a standard testing condition at relatively low heating powers is still lacking. The present study aims to measure particle number count and size distribution of undiluted aerosols of a latest fourth-generation e-cigarette at low powers, within 6.5 W using real-time particle counter (time-of-flight method). Also, temporal and spatial evolution of particle size and velocity distribution of aerosol jets are examined using phase Doppler anemometry (PDA) technique. To the authors’ best knowledge, application of PDA in e-cigarette aerosol measurement is rarely reported. In the present study, preliminary results about particle number count of undiluted aerosols measured by time-of-flight method depicted that an increase of heating power from 3.5 W to 6.5 W resulted in an enhanced asymmetricity in PSD, deviating from log-normal distribution. This can be considered as an artifact of rapid vaporization, condensation and coagulation processes on aerosols caused by higher heating power. A novel mathematical expression, combining exponential, Gaussian and polynomial (EGP) distributions, was proposed to describe asymmetric PSD successfully. The value of count median aerodynamic diameter and geometric standard deviation laid within a range of about 0.67 μm to 0.73 μm, and 1.32 to 1.43, respectively while the power varied from 3.5 W to 6.5 W. Laser Doppler velocimetry (LDV) and PDA measurement suggested a typical centerline streamwise mean velocity decay of aerosol jet along with a reduction of particle sizes. In the final submission, a thorough literature review, detailed description of experimental procedure and discussion of the results will be provided. Particle size and turbulent characteristics of aerosol jets will be further examined, analyzing arithmetic mean diameter, volumetric mean diameter, volume-based mean diameter, streamwise mean velocity and turbulence intensity. The present study has potential implications in PSD simulation and validation of aerosol dosimetry model, leading to improving related aerosol generating devices.

Keywords: E-cigarette aerosol, laser doppler velocimetry, particle size distribution, particle velocity, phase Doppler anemometry

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Authors: Bassim Shaheen Bachy, Jörg Franke

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In this study, a three dimensional numerical heat transfer model has been used to simulate the laser structuring of polymer substrate material in the Three-Dimensional Molded Interconnect Device (3D MID) which is used in the advanced multi-functional applications. A finite element method (FEM) transient thermal analysis is performed using APDL (ANSYS Parametric Design Language) provided by ANSYS. In this model, the effect of surface heat source was modeled with Gaussian distribution, also the effect of the mixed boundary conditions which consist of convection and radiation heat transfers have been considered in this analysis. The model provides a full description of the temperature distribution, as well as calculates the depth and the width of the groove upon material removal at different set of laser parameters such as laser power and laser speed. This study also includes the experimental procedure to study the effect of laser parameters on the depth and width of the removal groove metal as verification to the modeled results. Good agreement between the experimental and the model results is achieved for a wide range of laser powers. It is found that the quality of the laser structure process is affected by the laser scan speed and laser power. For a high laser structured quality, it is suggested to use laser with high speed and moderate to high laser power.

Keywords: laser structuring, simulation, finite element analysis, thermal modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 337

Authors: Ifeyinwa Orakwe, Ngozi Nwogu, Edward Gobina

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This work presents experimental results relating to the structural characterization of a commercially available alumina membrane. A γ-alumina mesoporous tubular membrane has been used. Nitrogen adsorption-desorption, scanning electron microscopy and gas permeability test has been carried out on the alumina membrane to characterize its structural features. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) was used to determine the pore size distribution of the membrane. Pore size, specific surface area and pore size distribution were also determined with the use of the Nitrogen adsorption-desorption instrument. Gas permeation tests were carried out on the membrane using a variety of single and mixed gases. The permeabilities at different pressure between 0.05-1 bar and temperature range of 25-200oC were used for the single and mixed gases: nitrogen (N2), helium (He), oxygen (O2), carbon dioxide (CO2), 14%CO₂/N₂, 60%CO₂/N₂, 30%CO₂/CH4 and 21%O₂/N₂. Plots of flow rate verses pressure were obtained. Results got showed the effect of temperature on the permeation rate of the various gases. At 0.5 bar for example, the flow rate for N2 was relatively constant before decreasing with an increase in temperature, while for O2, it continuously decreased with an increase in temperature. In the case of 30%CO₂/CH4 and 14%CO₂/N₂, the flow rate showed an increase then a decrease with increase in temperature. The effect of temperature on the membrane performance of the various gases is presented and the influence of the trans membrane pressure drop will be discussed in this paper.

Keywords: alumina membrane, Nitrogen adsorption-desorption, scanning electron microscopy, gas permeation, temperature

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Authors: Temsiri Suwan, Penpicha Wanachantararak, Sakornrat Khongkhunthian, Siriporn Okonogi

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In the present study, silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) were synthesized by green synthesis approach using Moringa oleifera aqueous extract (ME) as a reducing agent and silver nitrate as a precursor. The obtained AgNPs were characterized using UV-Vis spectroscopy (UV-Vis), dynamic light scattering (DLS), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX), and X-ray diffractometry (XRD). The results from UV-Vis revealed that the maximum absorption of AgNPs was at 430 nm and the EDX spectrum confirmed Ag element. The results from DLS indicated that the amount of ME played an important role in particle size, size distribution, and zeta potential of the obtained AgNPs. The smallest size (62.4 ± 1.8 nm) with narrow distribution (0.18 ± 0.02) of AgNPs was obtained after using 1% w/v of ME. This system gave high negative zeta potential of -36.5 ± 2.8 mV. SEM results indicated that the obtained AgNPs were spherical in shape. Antibacterial activity using dilution method revealed that the minimum inhibitory and minimum bactericidal concentrations of the obtained AgNPs against Streptococcus mutans were 0.025 and 0.1 mg/mL, respectively. Cytotoxicity test of AgNPs on adenocarcinomic human alveolar basal epithelial cells (A549) indicated that the particles impacted against A549 cells. The percentage of cell growth inhibition was 87.5 ± 3.6 % when only 0.1 mg/mL AgNPs was used. These results suggest that ME is the potential reducing agent for green synthesis of AgNPs.

Keywords: antibacterial activity, Moringa oleifera extract, reducing agent, silver nanoparticles

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Authors: Spandan Sahu, Amiya Kumar Pati, Kishanjit Kumar Khatua

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River is the main source of water. It is a form of natural open channel which gives rise to many complex phenomenon of sciences that needs to be tackled such as the critical flow conditions, boundary shear stress and depth averaged velocity. The development of society more or less solely depends upon the flow of rivers. The rivers are major sources of many sediments and specific ingredients which are much essential for human beings. During floods, part of a river is carried by the simple main channel and rest is carried by flood plains. For such compound asymmetric channels, the flow structure becomes complicated due to momentum exchange between main channel and adjoining flood plains. Distribution of boundary shear in subsections provides us with the concept of momentum transfer between the interface of main channel and the flood plains. Experimentally, to get better data with accurate results are very complex because of the complexity of the problem. Hence, Conveyance Estimation System (CES) software has been used to tackle the complex processes to determine the shear stresses at different sections of an open channel having asymmetric flood plains on both sides of the main channel and the results are compared with the symmetric flood plains for various geometrical shapes and flow conditions. Error analysis is also performed to know the degree of accuracy of the model implemented.

Keywords: depth average velocity, non prismatic compound channel, relative flow depth , velocity distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 110