Search results for: peripheral vascular disease
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4304

Search results for: peripheral vascular disease

2834 Global Developmental Delay and Its Association with Risk Factors: Validation by Structural Equation Modelling

Authors: Bavneet Kaur Sidhu, Manoj Tiwari

Abstract:

Global Developmental Delay (GDD) is a common pediatric condition. Etiologies of GDD might, however, differ in developing countries. In the last decade, sporadic families are being reported in various countries. As to the author’s best knowledge, many risk factors and their correlation with the prevalence of GDD have been studied but its statistical correlation has not been done. Thus we propose the present study by targeting the risk factor, prevalence and their statistical correlation with GDD. FMR1 gene was studied to confirm the disease and its penetrance. A complete questionnaire-based performance was designed for the statistical studies having a personal, past and present medical history along with their socio-economic status as well. Methods: We distributed the children’s age in 4 different age groups having 5-year intervals and applied structural equation modeling (SEM) techniques, Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient, Karl Pearson correlation coefficient, and chi-square test.Result: A total of 1100 families were enrolled for this study; among them, 330 were clinically and biologically confirmed (radiological studies) for the disease, 204 were males (61.8%), 126 were females (38.18%). We found that 27.87% were genetic and 72.12 were sporadic, out of 72.12 %, 43.277% cases from urban and 56.72% from the rural locality, the mothers' literacy rate was 32.12% and working women numbers were 41.21%. Conclusions: There is a significant association between mothers' age and GDD prevalence, which is also followed by mothers' literacy rate and mothers' occupation, whereas there was no association between fathers' age and GDD.

Keywords: global developmental delay, FMR1 gene, spearman’ rank correlation coefficient, structural equation modeling

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2833 Comparative Analysis of Hybrid Dynamic Stabilization and Fusion for Degenerative Disease of the Lumbosacral Spine: Finite Element Analysis

Authors: Mohamed Bendoukha, Mustapha Mosbah

Abstract:

The Radiographic apparent assumed that the asymptomatic adjacent segment disease ASD is common after lumbar fusion, but this does not correlate with the functional outcomes while compensatory increased motion and stresses at the adjacent level of fusion is well-known to be associated to ASD. Newly developed, the hybrid stabilization are allocated to substituted for mostly the superior level of the fusion in an attempt to reduce the number of fusion levels and likelihood of degeneration process at the adjacent levels during the fusion with pedicle screws. Nevertheless, its biomechanical efficiencies still remain unknown and complications associated with failure of constructs such screw loosening and toggling should be elucidated In the current study, a finite element (FE) study was performed using a validated L2/S1 model subjected to a moment of 7.5 Nm and follower load of 400 N to assess the biomedical behavior of hybrid constructs based on dynamic topping off, semi rigid fusion. The residual range of motion (ROM), stress distribution at the fused and adjacent levels, stress distribution at the disc and the cage-endplate interface with respect to changes of bone quality were investigated. The hybrid instrumentation was associated with a reduction in compressive stresses compared to the fusion construct in the adjacent-level disc and showed high substantial axial force in the implant while fusion instrumentation increased the motion for both flexion and extension.

Keywords: intervertebral disc, lumbar spine, degenerative nuclesion, L4-L5, range of motion finite element model, hyperelasticy

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2832 Use of Different Plant Extracts in Fungal Disease Management of Onion (Allium cepa. L)

Authors: Shobha U. Jadhav

Abstract:

Onion is most important vegetable crop grown throughout the world. Onion suffers from pest and fungal diseases but these fungicides cause pollution and disturb microbial balance of soil. Under integrated fungal disease management programme cost effective and eco- friendly component like plant extract are used to control plant pathogens. Alternaria porri, Fusarium oxysporium, Stemphylium vesicarium are soil-borne pathogens of onion. Effect of three different plant extracts (Ocimum sanctum L., Xanthium strumarium B. and H. Withania somnifera Dunal)at five different concentration Viz, 10, 25, 50, 75, and 100 percentage on these pathogens was studied by food poisoning technique. Ocimum sanctum gave 84.21% growth of Alternaria porri at 10% extract concentration and 10.52% growth in 100% extract concentration. As compared to Fusarium oxysporium and Stemphylium vesicarium, Alternaria porri give good inhibitory response. In Xanthium strumarium B. and H. at 10% extract concentration 46.42% growth and at 100% extract concentration 28.57% growth of Fusarium oxysporum was observed. Fusarium oxysporum give good inhibitory response as compared to Alternaria porri and Stemphylium vesicarium. In Withania somnifera Dunal in 10% extract concentration 84.21% growth and in 100% extract concentration 21.05% growth of Stemphylium vesicarium was recorded. Stemphylium vesicarium give good inhibitory response as compared to Alternaria porri and Fusarium oxysporum.

Keywords: pathogen, onion, plant, extract

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2831 Postmortem Genetic Testing to Sudden and Unexpected Deaths Using the Next Generation Sequencing

Authors: Eriko Ochiai, Fumiko Satoh, Keiko Miyashita, Yu Kakimoto, Motoki Osawa

Abstract:

Sudden and unexpected deaths from unknown causes occur in infants and youths. Recently, molecular links between a part of these deaths and several genetic diseases are examined in the postmortem. For instance, hereditary long QT syndrome and Burgada syndrome are occasionally fatal through critical ventricular tachyarrhythmia. There are a large number of target genes responsible for such diseases, the conventional analysis using the Sanger’s method has been laborious. In this report, we attempted to analyze sudden deaths comprehensively using the next generation sequencing (NGS) technique. Multiplex PCR to subject’s DNA was performed using Ion AmpliSeq Library Kits 2.0 and Ion AmpliSeq Inherited Disease Panel (Life Technologies). After the library was constructed by emulsion PCR, the amplicons were sequenced 500 flows on Ion Personal Genome Machine System (Life Technologies) according to the manufacture instruction. SNPs and indels were analyzed to the sequence reads that were mapped on hg19 of reference sequences. This project has been approved by the ethical committee of Tokai University School of Medicine. As a representative case, the molecular analysis to a 40 years old male who received a diagnosis of Brugada syndrome demonstrated a total of 584 SNPs or indels. Non-synonymous and frameshift nucleotide substitutions were selected in the coding region of heart disease related genes of ANK2, AKAP9, CACNA1C, DSC2, KCNQ1, MYLK, SCN1B, and STARD3. In particular, c.629T-C transition in exon 3 of the SCN1B gene, resulting in a leu210-to-pro (L210P) substitution is predicted “damaging” by the SIFT program. Because the mutation has not been reported, it was unclear if the substitution was pathogenic. Sudden death that failed in determining the cause of death constitutes one of the most important unsolved subjects in forensic pathology. The Ion AmpliSeq Inherited Disease Panel can amplify the exons of 328 genes at one time. We realized the difficulty in selection of the true source from a number of candidates, but postmortem genetic testing using NGS analysis deserves of a diagnostic to date. We now extend this analysis to SIDS suspected subjects and young sudden death victims.

Keywords: postmortem genetic testing, sudden death, SIDS, next generation sequencing

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2830 Fungicidal Action of the Mycogenic Silver Nanoparticles Against Aspergillus niger Inciting Collar Rot Disease in Groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.)

Authors: R. Sarada Jayalakshmi Devi B. Bhaskar, S. Khayum Ahammed, T. N. V. K. V. Prasad

Abstract:

Use of bioagents and biofungicides is safe to manage the plant diseases and to avoid human health hazards which improves food security. Myconanotechnology is the study of nanoparticles synthesis using fungi and their applications. The present work reports on preparation, characterization and antifungal activity of biogenic silver nanoparticles produced by the fungus Trichoderma sp. which was collected from groundnut rhizosphere. The culture filtrate of Trichoderma sp. was used for the reduction of silver ions (Ag+) in AgNO3 solution to the silver (Ag0) nanoparticles. The different ages (4 days, 6 days, 8 days, 12 days, and 15 days) of culture filtrates were screened for the synthesis of silver nanoparticles. Synthesized silver nanoparticles were characterized using UV-Vis spectrophotometer, particle size and zeta potential analyzer, Fourier Transform Infrared Spectrophotometer (FTIR) and Transmission Electron Microscopy. Among all the treatments the silver nitrate solution treated with six days aged culture filtrate of Trichoderma sp. showed the UV absorption peak at 440 nm with maximum intensity (0.59) after 24 hrs incubation. The TEM micrographs showed the spherical shaped silver nanoparticles with an average size of 30 nm. The antifungal activity of silver nanoparticles against Aspergillus niger causing collar rot disease in groundnut and aspergillosis in humans showed the highest per cent inhibition at 100 ppm concentration (74.8%). The results points to the usage of these mycogenic AgNPs in agriculture to control plant diseases.

Keywords: groundnut rhizosphere, Trichoderma sp., silver nanoparticles synthesis, antifungal activity

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2829 Determining of the Performance of Data Mining Algorithm Determining the Influential Factors and Prediction of Ischemic Stroke: A Comparative Study in the Southeast of Iran

Authors: Y. Mehdipour, S. Ebrahimi, A. Jahanpour, F. Seyedzaei, B. Sabayan, A. Karimi, H. Amirifard

Abstract:

Ischemic stroke is one of the common reasons for disability and mortality. The fourth leading cause of death in the world and the third in some other sources. Only 1/3 of the patients with ischemic stroke fully recover, 1/3 of them end in permanent disability and 1/3 face death. Thus, the use of predictive models to predict stroke has a vital role in reducing the complications and costs related to this disease. Thus, the aim of this study was to specify the effective factors and predict ischemic stroke with the help of DM methods. The present study was a descriptive-analytic study. The population was 213 cases from among patients referring to Ali ibn Abi Talib (AS) Hospital in Zahedan. Data collection tool was a checklist with the validity and reliability confirmed. This study used DM algorithms of decision tree for modeling. Data analysis was performed using SPSS-19 and SPSS Modeler 14.2. The results of the comparison of algorithms showed that CHAID algorithm with 95.7% accuracy has the best performance. Moreover, based on the model created, factors such as anemia, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, transient ischemic attacks, coronary artery disease, and atherosclerosis are the most effective factors in stroke. Decision tree algorithms, especially CHAID algorithm, have acceptable precision and predictive ability to determine the factors affecting ischemic stroke. Thus, by creating predictive models through this algorithm, will play a significant role in decreasing the mortality and disability caused by ischemic stroke.

Keywords: data mining, ischemic stroke, decision tree, Bayesian network

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2828 The Improvement of Disease-Modifying Osteoarthritis Drugs Model Uptake and Retention within Two Cartilage Models

Authors: Polina Prokopovich

Abstract:

Disease-modifying osteoarthritis drugs (DMOADs) are a new therapeutic class for OA, preventing or inhibiting OA development. Unfortunately, none of the DMOADs have been clinically approved due to their poor therapeutic effects in clinical trials. The joint environment has played a role in the poor clinical performance of these drugs by limiting the amount of drug effectively delivered as well as the time that the drug spends within the joint space. The current study aims to enhance the cartilage uptake and retention time of the DMOADs-model (licofelone), which showed a significant therapeutic effect against OA progression and is currently in phase III. Licofelone will be covalently conjugated to the hydrolysable, cytocompatible, and cationic poly beta-amino ester polymers (PBAE). The cationic polymers (A16 and A87) can be electrostatically attached to the negatively charged cartilage component (glycosaminoglycan), which will increase the drug penetration through the cartilage and extend the drug time within the cartilage. In the cartilage uptake and retention time studies, an increase of 18 to 37 times of the total conjugated licofelone to A87 and A16 was observed when compared to the free licofelone. Furthermore, the conjugated licofelone to A87 was detectable within the cartilage at 120 minutes, while the free licofelone was not detectable after 60 minutes. Additionally, the A87-licofelone conjugate showed no effect on the chondrocyte viability. In conclusion, the cationic A87 and A16 polymers increased the percentage of licofelone within the cartilage, which could potentially enhance the therapeutic effect and pharmacokinetic performance of licofelone or other DMOADs clinically.

Keywords: PBAE, cartilage., osteoarthritis, injectable biomaterials, drug delivery

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2827 Facial Infiltrating Lipomatosis, a Rare Cause of Facial Asymmetry to Be Known: Case Report and Literature Review

Authors: Shantanu Vyas, Neerja Meena

Abstract:

Facial infiltrating lipomatosis is a rare lipomatous lesion, first described by Slavin in 1983. It is a benign pseudotumor pathology. It corresponds to a non-encapsulated collection of mature adipocytes infiltrating the local tissue and hyperplasia of underlying bone leading to a craniofacial deformity. Very few cases have been reported in the literature. We report the case of a 19-year-old female patient, who was consulted for a swelling of the right hemiface progressively evolving since birth. Physical examination revealed facial asymmetry. On palpation, the mass was soft, painless, not compressible, not pulsatile, not fluctuating. In view of the asymptomatic nature and slow progression of the lesion, a lipomatous tumour, namely lipoma, was suggested. CT scan image shows a hyperplastic subcutaneous fat on the right hemiface. On the right jugal and temporal areas, there is a subcutaneous formation of fatty density, poorly limited, with no detectable peripheral capsule. It merges with the adjacent fat. In the bone window, there was a hyperplasia of underlying bone. Facial lipomatosis infiltration of the face is a benign pseudotumor pathology. As a result, it can be confused with other disorders, in particular, hemifacial hyperplasia. Combination of physical and radiological findings can establish the diagnosis. Surgical treatment is done for cosmetic purposes.

Keywords: cosmetic correction and facial assemetry, aesthetic results, facial infiltration, surgery

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2826 Effect of Transcutaneous Electrical Nerve Stimulation on Acupoints in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Blood Glucose Analysis

Authors: Asif Arsalan

Abstract:

The mortality rate of type 2 diabetes increasing day by day at an alarming rate. Changing lifestyle and environment have contributory effect in increase rate of type 2 diabetes mellitus. This study introduces a new method in physiotherapy field of treating a disease like diabetes, and gives the new way to control the diabetes without medicines.50 patients were selected on the basis of inclusion and exclusion criteria and were assigned to receive either TENS (group A) on the bilateral ST36 acupoints at a frequency of 25 Hz with intensity of 9 mA or placebo (group B) treatment for 5 minutes for 7 days. The blood glucose level was measured at both pre and post stimulation. Stimulation was given after 3 hours of food on every day regularly on stipulated time.There was significant improvement (P<0.05) in random blood sugar level of type 2 diabetes mellitus. It has been found TENS on bilateral ST36 acupoints have an effect to control plasma glucose level for type 2 diabetic mellitus patients and can be used without having any side effect. This study gives new idea to treat the type 2 diabetes conservatively with the TENS. As there are some study that TENS had been used to treat nausea, spasticity etc. condition by stimulating the acupoint but it is the very first time that TENS has been used to treat diabetes like disease. This study help the physiotherapy community to spread the physiotherapy treatment in other branches of the medical field and this gives a new identity for the physiotherapy. This also gives the benefit to patients to take a safe and cost effective treatment for the diabetes, and make the new use of TENS to treat other condition rather than pain.

Keywords: acupoint, plasma glucose level, type 2 diabetic mellitus, TENS

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2825 Apolipoprotein A1 -75 G to a Substitution and Its Relationship with Serum ApoA1 Levels among Indian Punjabi Population

Authors: Savjot Kaur, Mridula Mahajan, AJS Bhanwer, Santokh Singh, Kawaljit Matharoo

Abstract:

Background: Disorders of lipid metabolism and genetic predisposition are CAD risk factors. ApoA1 is the apolipoprotein component of anti-atherogenic high density lipoprotein (HDL) particles. The protective action of HDL and ApoA1 is attributed to their central role in reverse cholesterol transport (RCT). Aim: This study was aimed at identifying sequence variations in ApoA1 (-75G>A) and its association with serum ApoA1 levels. Methods: A total of 300 CAD patients and 300 Normal individuals (controls) were analyzed. PCR-RFLP method was used to determine the DNA polymorphism in the ApoA1 gene, PCR products digested with restriction enzyme MspI, followed by Agarose Gel Electrophoresis. Serum apolipoprotein A1 concentration was estimated with immunoturbidimetric method. Results: Deviation from Hardy- Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE) was observed for this gene variant. The A- allele frequency was higher among Coronary Artery disease patients (53.8) compared to controls (45.5), p= 0.004, O.R= 1.38(1.11-1.75). Under recessive model analysis (AA vs. GG+GA) AA genotype of ApoA1 G>A substitution conferred ~1 fold increased risk towards CAD susceptibility (p= 0.002, OR= 1.72(1.2-2.43). With serum ApoA1 levels < 107 A allele frequency was higher among CAD cases (50) as compared to controls (43.4) [p=0.23, OR= 1.2(0.84-2)] and there was zero % occurrence of A allele frequency in individuals with ApoA1 levels > 177. Conclusion: Serum ApoA1 levels were associated with ApoA1 promoter region variation and influence CAD risk. The individuals with the APOA1 -75 A allele confer excess hazard of developing CAD as a result of its effect on low serum concentrations of ApoA1.

Keywords: apolipoprotein A1 (G>A) gene polymorphism, coronary artery disease (CAD), reverse cholesterol transport (RCT)

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2824 Macroscopic Anatomy of the Nutrient Foramina of Human Scaphoid Bone

Authors: B. V. Murlimanju

Abstract:

Background: Scaphoid bone is commonly fractured among all the bones of the wrist. The fracture can damage the arteries and would cause avascular necrosis of the scaphoid. In this present study, the goal was to study the topography and number of nutrient foramina in the scaphoid bones of South Indian population. Methods: We studied 46 human scaphoid bones, among them 20 were left sided and 26 belonged to the right side. The scaphoid bones were available at the department of anatomy of our institution. The scaphoid bones were macroscopically observed for the topography and number of nutrient foramina. The data was collected, tabulated and analyzed. Results: The nutrient foramina were observed in all the scaphoid bones (100%). The locations of the foramina were over the non-articular surfaces in all these scaphoids. They were distributed over the palmar and dorsal surfaces. The foramina were found proximal as well as distal to the mid waist of the scaphoid bone. Their number ranged between 9 and 54 in each scaphoid bone. The number ranged between 2-24 over the palmar surface and 7-36 over the dorsal surface. They ranged between 2-24 proximal to the waist and 3-39 distal to the waist. Conclusion: The knowledge of arterial supply, topography of nutrient foramen and their number is essential to understand the concepts of avascular necrosis of scaphoid bone. It will be enlightening to understand the non-union of the fracture of waist of the scaphoid. The morphological data is required to the operating hand surgeon. We do believe that the present study has provided additional information about the topography and number of nutrient foramina of the human scaphoid bones.

Keywords: avascular necrosis, nutrient foramen, scaphoid, vascular

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2823 Profile of the Renal Failure Patients under Haemodialysis at B. P. Koirala Institute of Health Sciences Nepal

Authors: Ram Sharan Mehta, Sanjeev Sharma

Abstract:

Introduction: Haemodialysis (HD) is a mechanical process of removing waste products from the blood and replacing essential substances in patients with renal failure. First artificial kidney developed in Netherlands in 1943 AD First successful treatment of CRF reported in 1960AD, life-saving treatment begins for CRF in 1972 AD. In 1973 AD Medicare took over financial responsibility for many clients and after that method become popular. BP Koirala institute of health science is the only center outside the Kathmandu, where HD service is available. In BPKIHS PD started in Jan.1998, HD started in August 2002 till September 2003 about 278 patients received HD. Day by day the number of HD patients is increasing in BPKIHS as with institutional growth. No such type of study was conducted in past hence there is lack of valid & reliable baseline data. Hence, the investigators were interested to conduct the study on " Profile of the Renal Failure patients under Haemodialysis at B.P. Koirala Institute of Health Sciences Nepal". Objectives: The objectives of the study were: to find out the Socio-demographic characteristics of the patients, to explore the knowledge of the patients regarding disease process and Haemodialysis and to identify the problems encountered by the patients. Methods: It is a hospital-based exploratory study. The population of the study was the clients under HD and the sampling method was purposive. Fifty-four patients undergone HD during the period of 17 July 2012 to 16 July 2013 of complete one year were included in the study. Structured interview schedule was used for collect data after obtaining validity and reliability. Results: Total 54 subjects had undergone for HD, having age range of 5-75 years and majority of them were male (74%) and Hindu (93 %). Thirty-one percent illiterate, 28% had agriculture their occupation, 80% of them were from very poor community, and about 30% subjects were unaware about the disease they suffering. Majority of subjects reported that they had no complications during dialysis (61%), where as 20% reported nausea and vomiting, 9% Hypotension, 4% headache and 2%chest pain during dialysis. Conclusions: CRF leading to HD is a long battle for patients, required to make major and continuous adjustment, both physiologically and psychologically. The study suggests that non-compliance with HD regimen were common. The socio-demographic and knowledge profile will help in the management and early prevention of disease and evaluate aspects that will influence care and patients can select mode of treatment themselves properly.

Keywords: profile, haemodialysis, Nepal, patients, treatment

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2822 Modeling the Time Dependent Biodistribution of a 177Lu Labeled Somatostatin Analogues for Targeted Radiotherapy of Neuroendocrine Tumors Using Compartmental Analysis

Authors: Mahdieh Jajroudi

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Developing a pharmacokinetic model for the neuroendocrine tumors therapy agent 177Lu-DOTATATE in nude mice bearing AR42J rat pancreatic tumor to investigate and evaluate the behavior of the complex was the main purpose of this study. The utilization of compartmental analysis permits the mathematical differencing of tissues and organs to become acquainted with the concentration of activity in each fraction of interest. Biodistribution studies are onerous and troublesome to perform in humans, but such data can be obtained facilely in rodents. A physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for scaling up activity concentration in particular organs versus time was developed. The mathematical model exerts physiological parameters including organ volumes, blood flow rates, and vascular permabilities; the compartments (organs) are connected anatomically. This allows the use of scale-up techniques to forecast new complex distribution in humans' each organ. The concentration of the radiopharmaceutical in various organs was measured at different times. The temporal behavior of biodistribution of 177Lu labeled somatostatin analogues was modeled and drawn as function of time. Conclusion: The variation of pharmaceutical concentration in all organs is characterized with summation of six to nine exponential terms and it approximates our experimental data with precision better than 1%.

Keywords: biodistribution modeling, compartmental analysis, 177Lu labeled somatostatin analogues, neuroendocrine tumors

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2821 Improving Medication Understanding, Use and Self-Efficacy among Stroke Patients: A Randomised Controlled Trial; Study Protocol

Authors: Jamunarani Appalasamy, Tha Kyi Kyi, Quek Kia Fatt, Joyce Pauline Joseph, Anuar Zaini M. Zain

Abstract:

Background: The Health Belief Theory had always been associated with chronic disease management. Various health behaviour concepts and perception branching from this Health Belief Theory had involved with medication understanding, use, and self-efficacy which directly link to medication adherence. In a previous quantitative and qualitative study, stroke patients in Malaysia were found to be strongly believing information obtained by various sources such as the internet and social communication. This action leads to lower perception of their stroke preventative medication benefit which in long-term creates non-adherence. Hence, this study intends to pilot an intervention which uses audio-visual concept incorporated with mHealth service to enhance learning and self-reflection among stroke patients to manage their disease. Methods/Design: Twenty patients will be allocated to a proposed intervention whereas another twenty patients are allocated to the usual treatment. The intervention involves a series of developed audio-visual videos sent via mobile phone which later await for responses and feedback from the receiver (patient) via SMS or recorded calls. The primary outcome would be the medication understanding, use and self-efficacy measured over two months pre and post intervention. Secondary outcome is measured from changes of blood parameters and other self-reported questionnaires. Discussion: This study shall also assess uptake/attrition, feasibility, and acceptability of this intervention. Trial Registration: NMRR-15-851-24737 (IIR)

Keywords: health belief, medication understanding, medication use, self-efficacy

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2820 Development of Low Glycemic Gluten Free Bread from Barnyard Millet and Lentil Flour

Authors: Hemalatha Ganapathyswamy, Thirukkumar Subramani

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Celiac disease is an autoimmune response to dietary wheat gluten. Gluten is the main structure forming protein in bread and hence developing gluten-free bread is a technological challenge. The study aims at using nonwheat flours like barnyard millet and lentil flour to replace wheat in bread formulations. Other characteristics of these grains, such as high protein, soluble fiber, mineral content and bioactive components make them attractive alternatives to traditional gluten-free ingredients in the production of high protein, gluten-free bread. The composite flour formulations for the development of gluten-free bread were optimized using lentil flour (50 to 70 g), barnyard millet flour (0 to 30 g) and corn flour (0 to 30 g) by means of response surface methodology with various independent variables for physical, sensorial and nutritional characteristics. The optimized composite flour which had a desirability value of 0.517, included lentil flour –62.94 g, barnyard millet flour– 24.34 g and corn flour– 12.72 g with overall acceptability score 8.00/9.00. The optimized gluten-free bread formulation had high protein (14.99g/100g) and fiber (1.95g/100g) content. The glycemic index of the gluten-free bread was 54.58 rendering it as low glycemic which enhances the functional benefit of the gluten-free bread. Since the standardised gluten-free bread from barnyard millet and lentil flour are high protein, and gluten-free with low glycemic index, the product would serve as an ideal therapeutic food in the management of both celiac disease and diabetes mellitus with better nutritional value.

Keywords: gluten free bread, lentil, low glycemic index, response surface methodology

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2819 Traumatic Brachiocephalic Artery Pseudoaneurysm

Authors: Sally Shepherd, Jessica Wong, David Read

Abstract:

Traumatic brachiocephalic artery aneurysm is a rare injury that typically occurs as a result of a blunt chest injury. A 19-year-old female sustained a head-on, high speed motor vehicle crash into a tree. Upon release after 45 minutes of entrapment, she was tachycardic but normotensive, with a significant seatbelt sign across her chest and open deformed right thigh with weak pulses in bilateral lower limbs. A chest XR showed mild upper mediastinal widening. A CT trauma series plus gated CT chest revealed a grade 3a aortic arch transection with brachiocephalic pseudoaneurysm. Endovascular repair of the brachiocephalic artery was attempted post-presentation but was unsuccessful as the first stent migrated to the infrarenal abdominal aorta and the second stent across the brachiocephalic artery origin had a persistent leak at the base. She was transferred to Intensive Care for strict blood pressure control. She returned to theatre 5 hours later for a median sternotomy, aortic arch repair with an 8mm graft extraction, and excision of the innominate artery pseudoaneurysm. She had an uncomplicated post-operative recovery. This case highlights that brachiocephalic artery injury is a rare but potentially lethal injury as a result of blunt chest trauma. Safe management requires a combined Vascular and Cardiothoracic team approach, as stenting alone may be insufficient.

Keywords: blunt chest injury, Brachiocephalic aneurysm, innominate artery, trauma

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2818 Poultry in Motion: Text Mining Social Media Data for Avian Influenza Surveillance in the UK

Authors: Samuel Munaf, Kevin Swingler, Franz Brülisauer, Anthony O’Hare, George Gunn, Aaron Reeves

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Background: Avian influenza, more commonly known as Bird flu, is a viral zoonotic respiratory disease stemming from various species of poultry, including pets and migratory birds. Researchers have purported that the accessibility of health information online, in addition to the low-cost data collection methods the internet provides, has revolutionized the methods in which epidemiological and disease surveillance data is utilized. This paper examines the feasibility of using internet data sources, such as Twitter and livestock forums, for the early detection of the avian flu outbreak, through the use of text mining algorithms and social network analysis. Methods: Social media mining was conducted on Twitter between the period of 01/01/2021 to 31/12/2021 via the Twitter API in Python. The results were filtered firstly by hashtags (#avianflu, #birdflu), word occurrences (avian flu, bird flu, H5N1), and then refined further by location to include only those results from within the UK. Analysis was conducted on this text in a time-series manner to determine keyword frequencies and topic modeling to uncover insights in the text prior to a confirmed outbreak. Further analysis was performed by examining clinical signs (e.g., swollen head, blue comb, dullness) within the time series prior to the confirmed avian flu outbreak by the Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA). Results: The increased search results in Google and avian flu-related tweets showed a correlation in time with the confirmed cases. Topic modeling uncovered clusters of word occurrences relating to livestock biosecurity, disposal of dead birds, and prevention measures. Conclusions: Text mining social media data can prove to be useful in relation to analysing discussed topics for epidemiological surveillance purposes, especially given the lack of applied research in the veterinary domain. The small sample size of tweets for certain weekly time periods makes it difficult to provide statistically plausible results, in addition to a great amount of textual noise in the data.

Keywords: veterinary epidemiology, disease surveillance, infodemiology, infoveillance, avian influenza, social media

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2817 Impact of a Training Course in Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation for Primary Care Professionals

Authors: Luiz Ernani Meira Jr., Antônio Prates Caldeira, Gilson Gabriel Viana Veloso, Jackson Andrade

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Background: In Brazil, primary health care (PHC) system has developed with multidisciplinary teams in facilities located in peripheral areas, as the entrance doors for all patients. So, professionals must be prepared to deal with patients with simple and complex problems. Objective: To evaluate the knowledge and the skills of physicians and nurses of PHC on cardiorespiratory arrest (CRA) and cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) before and after training in Basic Life Support. Methods: This is a before-and-after study developed in a Simulation Laboratory in Montes Claros, Brazil. We included physicians and nurses randomly chosen from PHC services. Written tests on CRA and CPR were carried out and performances in a CPR simulation were evaluated, based on the American Heart Association recommendations. Training practices were performed using special manikins. Statistical analysis included Wilcoxon’s test to compare before and after scores. Results: Thirty-two professionals were included. Only 38% had previous courses and updates on emergency care. Most of professionals showed poor skills to attend to CRA in a simulated situation. Subjects showed an increased in knowledge and skills about CPR after training (p-value=0.003). Conclusion: Primary health care professionals must be continuously trained to assist urgencies and emergencies, like CRA.

Keywords: primary health care, professional training, cardiopulmonary resuscitation, cardiorespiratory, emergency

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2816 Rapid Identification and Diagnosis of the Pathogenic Leptospiras through Comparison among Culture, PCR and Real Time PCR Techniques from Samples of Human and Mouse Feces

Authors: S. Rostampour Yasouri, M. Ghane, M. Doudi

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Leptospirosis is one of the most significant infectious and zoonotic diseases along with global spreading. This disease is causative agent of economoic losses and human fatalities in various countries, including Northern provinces of Iran. The aim of this research is to identify and compare the rapid diagnostic techniques of pathogenic leptospiras, considering the multifacetedness of the disease from a clinical manifestation and premature death of patients. In the spring and summer of 2020-2022, 25 fecal samples were collected from suspected leptospirosis patients and 25 Fecal samples from mice residing in the rice fields and factories in Tonekabon city. Samples were prepared by centrifugation and passing through membrane filters. Culture technique was used in liquid and solid EMJH media during one month of incubation at 30°C. Then, the media were examined microscopically. DNA extraction was conducted by extraction Kit. Diagnosis of leptospiras was enforced by PCR and Real time PCR (SYBR Green) techniques using lipL32 specific primer. Out of the patients, 11 samples (44%) and 8 samples (32%) were determined to be pathogenic Leptospira by Real time PCR and PCR technique, respectively. Out of the mice, 9 Samples (36%) and 3 samples (12%) were determined to be pathogenic Leptospira by the mentioned techniques, respectively. Although the culture technique is considered to be the gold standard technique, but due to the slow growth of pathogenic Leptospira and lack of colony formation of some species, it is not a fast technique. Real time PCR allowed rapid diagnosis with much higher accuracy compared to PCR because PCR could not completely identify samples with lower microbial load.

Keywords: culture, pathogenic leptospiras, PCR, real time PCR

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2815 Effect of Bariatric Surgery on Metabolic Syndrome, Framingham Risk Score and Thyroid Function

Authors: Nuha Alamro

Abstract:

Besides achieving of weight loss, Bariatric surgery (BS) shown metabolic improvement including reduction of cardiovascular disease, insulin resistance and diabetes. This study aimed to measure BS effects on Framingham Risk Score (FRS) and metabolic syndrome (MetS) among patients who underwent BS. Additionally, to determine the effect of BS on TSH among euthyroid obese patients. A Retrospective follow-up study was conducted in King Abdullah Medical City. A total of 160 participants who underwent BS and completed one year of follow ups. Medical history, biochemical, anthropometric, and hormonal parameters were evaluated at baseline and 3-12 months after BS. International Diabetes Federation (IDF) criteria were used to diagnose MetS pre and postoperative. The mean age of participants was 41.9 ± 10.6 with Body Mass Index (BMI) of 48.8 ± 7.3. After 3 months, Systolic, Diastolic blood pressure (SBP, DBP), glycated haemoglobin (HBA1C), Low-density lipoprotein (LDL), cholesterol, triglycerides and Thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) were significantly decrease (P < 0.001). Significant decrease was seen in Mets, BMI, FRS, SBP, DBP, HBA1C, LDL, triglycerides, cholesterol, liver enzyme, with significant increase in high-density lipoprotein (HDL) level 12 months post-op (P < 0.001). After 1 year, the prevalence of MetS, DM, HTN, FRS were significantly decrease from 72.5%, 43.1%, 78.1%, 11.4 to 16.3%, 9.4%, 22.5% and 5.4, respectively. Besides achieving substantial weight loss, MetS resolution was linked to improvement in cardiovascular risk profile.

Keywords: bariatric surgery, cardiovascular disease, metabolic syndrome, thyroid stimulating hormone

Procedia PDF Downloads 99
2814 The Frequency of Q Fever Among Hospitalized Patients with Pyrexia

Authors: Hassan Ali Abood Nassrullah, Jabbar Fadeel Mahdi, Mohammed Salih Mahdi Alkurdi, Ali Al Mousawi, Saad Ibrahim Al-Ghabban, Abdul Amir H. Kadhum, Ahmed Al-Amiery

Abstract:

Background: Q fever is a zoonotic disease characterized by its clinical polymorphism and can present acutely as fever, pneumonia, hepatitis, and chronically as infective endocarditis, arthritis, osteomyelitis, or hepatitis. Objective: The aim of this study is To estimate the prevalence of cases of Q fever in hospitalized febrile patients in Imam Al Hussain Teaching Medical City in Karbala. Methods: One hundred patients with pyrexia were admitted to the medical ward from 1st August to 31st December 2019. Serological procedures fortified by Enzyme-linked Immunosorbent Assay test. Patients were considered to have acute Q fever when the specific antibodies (IgM and IgG) of phase II of Coxiella burnetii were positive. Results: The mean age of the patients was 35.05±12.93 years; females constituted 60% of them. Eighteen patients (18%) showed positive results for IgM, a lower proportion (13% n=13) had positive IgG levels, and 9% showed equivocal results. Statistical analysis revealed a significant association between positive IgM levels of the female gender and in patients consuming unpasteurized milk. One patient (female aged 60 years) died in the hospital, while all other patients were discharged well. Two female patients were pregnant, and one of them had an abortion. Conclusions: Q fever is more common in febrile patients. The study indicates that this disease should not be overlooked in the differential diagnosis of acute fever. Serological testing should be performed in all patients with acute febrile illness with an unsettling diagnosis.

Keywords: antibodies, frequency, immunoglobulin IgM, Q fever

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2813 Classifier for Liver Ultrasound Images

Authors: Soumya Sajjan

Abstract:

Liver cancer is the most common cancer disease worldwide in men and women, and is one of the few cancers still on the rise. Liver disease is the 4th leading cause of death. According to new NHS (National Health Service) figures, deaths from liver diseases have reached record levels, rising by 25% in less than a decade; heavy drinking, obesity, and hepatitis are believed to be behind the rise. In this study, we focus on Development of Diagnostic Classifier for Ultrasound liver lesion. Ultrasound (US) Sonography is an easy-to-use and widely popular imaging modality because of its ability to visualize many human soft tissues/organs without any harmful effect. This paper will provide an overview of underlying concepts, along with algorithms for processing of liver ultrasound images Naturaly, Ultrasound liver lesion images are having more spackle noise. Developing classifier for ultrasound liver lesion image is a challenging task. We approach fully automatic machine learning system for developing this classifier. First, we segment the liver image by calculating the textural features from co-occurrence matrix and run length method. For classification, Support Vector Machine is used based on the risk bounds of statistical learning theory. The textural features for different features methods are given as input to the SVM individually. Performance analysis train and test datasets carried out separately using SVM Model. Whenever an ultrasonic liver lesion image is given to the SVM classifier system, the features are calculated, classified, as normal and diseased liver lesion. We hope the result will be helpful to the physician to identify the liver cancer in non-invasive method.

Keywords: segmentation, Support Vector Machine, ultrasound liver lesion, co-occurance Matrix

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2812 Development and Evaluation of a Gut-Brain Axis Chip Based on 3D Printing Interconnecting Microchannel Scaffolds

Authors: Zhuohan Li, Jing Yang, Yaoyuan Cui

Abstract:

The gut-brain axis (GBA), a communication network between gut microbiota and the brain, benefits for investigation of brain diseases. Currently, organ chips are considered one of the potential tools for GBA research. However, most of the available GBA chips have limitations in replicating the three-dimensional (3D) growth environment of cells and lack the required cell types for barrier function. In the present study, a microfluidic chip was developed for GBA interaction. Blood-brain barrier (BBB) module was prepared with HBMEC, HBVP, U87 cells and decellularized matrix (dECM). Intestinal epithelial barrier (IEB) was prepared with Caco-2 and vascular endothelial cells and dECM. GBA microfluidic device was integrated with IEB and BBB modules using 3D printing interconnecting microchannel scaffolds. BBB and IEB interaction on this GBA chip were evaluated with lipopolysaccharide (LPS) exposure. The present GBA chip achieved multicellular three-dimensional cultivation. Compared with the co-culture cell model in the transwell, fluorescein was absorbed more slowly by 5.16-fold (IEB module) and 4.69-fold (BBB module) on the GBA chip. Accumulation of Rhodamine 123 and Hoechst33342 was dramatically decreased. The efflux function of transporters on IEB and BBB was significantly increased on the GBA chip. After lipopolysaccharide (LPS) disrupted the IEB, and then BBB dysfunction was further observed, which confirmed the interaction between IEB and BBB modules. These results demonstrated that this GBA chip may offer a promising tool for gut-brain interaction study.

Keywords: decellularized matrix, gut-brain axis, organ-on-chip, three-dimensional printing.

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2811 Seroepidemiology of Q Fever among Companion Dogs in Fars Province, South of Iran

Authors: Atefeh Esmailnejad, Mohammad Abbaszadeh Hasiri

Abstract:

Coxiella burnetii is a gram-negative obligatory intracellular bacterium that causes Q fever, a significant zoonotic disease. Sheep, cattle, and goats are the most commonly reported reservoirs for the bacteria, but infected cats and dogs have also been implicated in the transmission of the disease to human. The aim of present study was to investigate the presence of antibodies against Coxiella burnetii among companion dogs in Fars province, South of Iran. A total of 181 blood samples were collected from asymptomatic dogs, mostly referred to Veterinary Hospital of Shiraz University for regular vaccination. The IgG antibody detection against Coxiella burnetii was made by indirect Enzyme-linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA), employing phase I and II Coxiella burnetii antigens. A logistic regression model was developed to analyze multiple risk factors associated with seropositivity. An overall seropositivity of 7.7% (n=14) was observed. Prevalence was significantly higher in adult dogs above five years (18.18 %) compared with dogs between 1 and five years (7.86 %) and less than one year (6.17%) (P=0.043). Prevalence was also higher in male dogs (11.21 %) than in female (2.7 %) (P=0.035). There were no significant differences in the prevalence of positive cases and breed, type of housing, type of food and exposure to other farm animals (P>0.05). The results of this study showed the presence of Coxiella burnetii infection among the companion dogs population in Fars province. To our knowledge, this is the first study regarding Q fever in dogs carried out in Iran. In areas like Iran, where human cases of Q fever are not common or remain unreported, the public health implications of Q fever seroprevalence in dogs are quite significant.

Keywords: Coxiella burnetii, dog, Iran, Q fever

Procedia PDF Downloads 306
2810 The Nutrient Foramen of the Scaphoid Bone – A Morphological Study

Authors: B. V. Murlimanju, P. J. Jiji, Latha V. Prabhu, Mangala M. Pai

Abstract:

Background: The scaphoid is the most commonly fractured bone of the wrist. The fracture may disrupt the vessels and end up as the avascular necrosis of the bone. The objective of the present study was to investigate the morphology and number of the nutrient foramina in the cadaveric dried scaphoid bones of the Indian population. Methods: The present study included 46 scaphoid bones (26 right sided and 20 left sided) which were obtained from the gross anatomy laboratory of our institution. The bones were macroscopically observed for the nutrient foramina and the data was collected with respect to their number. The tabulation of the data and analysis were done. Results: All of our specimens (100%) exhibited the nutrient foramina over the non-articular surfaces. The foramina were observed only over the palmar and dorsal surfaces of the scaphoid bones. The foramina were observed both proximal and distal to the mid waist of the scaphoid bone. The foramen ranged between 9 and 54 in each scaphoid bone. The foramina over the palmar surface ranged between, 2-24 in number. The foramina over the dorsal surface ranged between, 7-36 in number. The foramina proximal to the waist ranged between 2 and 24 in number and distal to the waist ranged between 3 and 39. Conclusion: We believe that the present study has provided additional data about the nutrient foramina of the scaphoid bones. The data is enlightening to the orthopedic surgeon and would help in the hand surgeries. The morphological knowledge of the vasculature, their foramina of entry and their number is required to understand the concepts in the avascular necrosis of the proximal scaphoid and non-union of the fracture at the waist of the scaphoid.

Keywords: avascular necrosis, nutrient, scaphoid, vascular

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2809 Green It-Outsourcing Assurance Model for It-Outsourcing Vendors

Authors: Siffat Ullah Khan, Rahmat Ullah Khan, Rafiq Ahmad Khan, Habibullah Khan

Abstract:

Green IT or green computing has emerged as a fast growing business paradigm in recent years in order to develop energy-efficient Software and peripheral devices. With the constant evolution of technology and the world critical environmental status, all private and public information technology (IT) businesses are moving towards sustainability. We identified, through systematic literature review and questionnaire survey, 9 motivators, in total, faced by vendors in IT-Outsourcing relationship. Amongst these motivators 7 were ranked as critical motivators. We also identified 21, in total, practices for addressing these critical motivators. Based on these inputs we have developed Green IT-Outsourcing Assurance Model (GITAM) for IT-Outsourcing vendors. The model comprises four different levels. i.e. Initial, White, Green and Grey. Each level comprises different critical motivators and their relevant practices. We conclude that our model, GITAM, will assist IT-Outsourcing vendors in gauging their level in order to manage IT-Outsourcing activities in a green and sustainable fashion to assist the environment and to reduce the carbon emission. The model will assist vendors in improving their current level by suggesting various practices. The model will contribute to the body of knowledge in the field of Green IT.

Keywords: Green IT-outsourcing Assurance Model (GITAM), Systematic Literature Review, Empirical Study, Case Study

Procedia PDF Downloads 247
2808 Date Palm Fruits from Oman Attenuates Cognitive and Behavioral Defects and Reduces Inflammation in a Transgenic Mice Model of Alzheimer's Disease

Authors: M. M. Essa, S. Subash, M. Akbar, S. Al-Adawi, A. Al-Asmi, G. J. Guillemein

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Transgenic (tg) mice which contain an amyloid precursor protein (APP) gene mutation, develop extracellular amyloid beta (Aβ) deposition in the brain, and severe memory and behavioral deficits with age. These mice serve as an important animal model for testing the efficacy of novel drug candidates for the treatment and management of symptoms of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Several reports have suggested that oxidative stress is the underlying cause of Aβ neurotoxicity in AD. Date palm fruits contain very high levels of antioxidants and several medicinal properties that may be useful for improving the quality of life in AD patients. In this study, we investigated the effect of dietary supplementation of Omani date palm fruits on the memory, anxiety and learning skills along with inflammation in an AD mouse model containing the double Swedish APP mutation (APPsw/Tg2576). The experimental groups of APP-transgenic mice from the age of 4 months were fed custom-mix diets (pellets) containing 2% and 4% Date palm fruits. We assessed spatial memory and learning ability, psychomotor coordination, and anxiety-related behavior in Tg and wild-type mice at the age of 4-5 months and 18-19 months using the Morris water maze test, rota rod test, elevated plus maze test, and open field test. Further, inflammatory parameters also analyzed. APPsw/Tg2576 mice that were fed a standard chow diet without dates showed significant memory deficits, increased anxiety-related behavior, and severe impairment in spatial learning ability, position discrimination learning ability and motor coordination along with increased inflammation compared to the wild type mice on the same diet, at the age of 18-19 months In contrast, PPsw/Tg2576 mice that were fed a diet containing 2% and 4% dates showed a significant improvements in memory, learning, locomotor function, and anxiety with reduced inflammatory markers compared to APPsw/Tg2576 mice fed the standard chow diet. Our results suggest that dietary supplementation with dates may slow the progression of cognitive and behavioral impairments in AD. The exact mechanism is still unclear and further extensive research needed.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, date palm fruits, Oman, cognitive decline, memory loss, anxiety, inflammation

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2807 Genetics of Atopic Dermatitis: Role of Cytokine Genes Polymorphisms

Authors: Ghaleb Bin Huraib

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Atopic dermatitis (AD), also known as atopic eczema, is a chronic inflammatory skin disease characterized by severe itching and recurrent, relapsing eczema-like skin lesions, affecting up to 20% of children and 10% of adults in industrialized countries. AD is a complex multifactorial disease, and its exact etiology and pathogenesis have not been fully elucidated. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of gene polymorphisms of T helper cell subtype Th1 and Th2 cytokines, interferon-gamma (IFN-γ), interleukin-6 (IL-6) and transforming growth factor (TGF)-β1on AD susceptibility in a Saudi cohort. One hundred four unrelated patients with AD and 195 healthy controls were genotyped for IFN-γ (874A/T), IL-6 (174G/C) and TGF-β1 (509C/T) polymorphisms using ARMS-PCR and PCR-RFLP technique. The frequency of genotypes AA and AT of IFN-γ (874A/T) differed significantly among patients and controls (P 0.001). The genotype AT was increased while genotype AA was decreased in AD patients as compared to controls. AD patients also had a higher frequency of T-containing genotypes (AT+TT) than controls (P = 0.001). The frequencies of alleles T and A were statistically different in patients and controls (P = 0.04). The frequencies of genotype GG and allele G of IL-6 (174G/C) were significantly higher, while genotype GC and allele C were lower in AD patients than in controls. There was no significant difference in the frequencies of alleles and genotypes of TGF-β1 (509C/T) polymorphism between the patient and control groups. These results showed that susceptibility to AD is influenced by the presence or absence of genotypes of IFN-γ (874A/T) and IL-6 (174G/C) polymorphisms. It is concluded T-allele and T-containing genotypes (AT+TT) of IFN-γ (874A/T) and G-allele and GG genotype ofIL-6 (174G/C) polymorphisms are susceptible to AD in Saudis. On the other hand, the TGF-β1 (509C/T) polymorphism may not be associated with AD risk in our population; however, further studies with large sample sizes are required to confirm these results.

Keywords: atopic dermatitis, Polymorphism, Interferon, IL-6

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2806 Association of Human Immunodeficiency Virus with Incident Autoimmune Hemolytic Anemia: A Population-Based Cohort Study in Taiwan

Authors: Yung-Feng Yen, I-an Jen, Yi-Ming Arthur Chen

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The molecular mimicry between human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) protein and red blood cell (RBC) antigens could induce the production of anti-RBC autoantibodies. However, the association between HIV infection and subsequent development of autoimmune hemolytic anemia (AIHA) remains unclear. This nationwide population-based cohort study aimed to determine the association between incident AIHA and HIV in Taiwan. From 2000–2012, we identified adult people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) from the Taiwan centers for disease control HIV Surveillance System. HIV-infected individuals were defined by positive HIV-1 western blot. Age- and sex-matched controls without HIV infection were selected from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database for comparison. All patients were followed until Dec. 31, 2012, and observed for occurrence of AIHA. Of 171,468 subjects (19,052 PLWHA, 152,416 controls), 30 (0.02%) had incident AIHA during a mean follow-up of 5.45 years, including 23 (0.12%) PLWHA and 7 (0.01%) controls. After adjusting for potential confounders, HIV infection was found to be an independent risk factor of incident AIHA (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 20.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 8.34-52.3). Moreover, PLWHA receiving HAART were more likely to develop AIHA than those not receiving HAART (AHR, 10.8; 95% CI, 2.90-40.1). Additionally, the risk of AIHA was significantly increased in those taking efavirenz (AHR, 3.15; 95% CI, 1.18-8.43) or atazanavir (AHR, 6.58; 95% CI, 1.88-22.9) component of the HAART. In conclusion, HIV infection is an independent risk factor for incident AIHA. Clinicians need to be aware of the higher risk of AIHA in PLWHA.

Keywords: autoimmune disease , hemolytic anemia, HIV, highly active antiretroviral treatment

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2805 A Data-Driven Compartmental Model for Dengue Forecasting and Covariate Inference

Authors: Yichao Liu, Peter Fransson, Julian Heidecke, Jonas Wallin, Joacim Rockloev

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Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral disease, poses a significant public health challenge in endemic tropical or subtropical countries, including Sri Lanka. To reveal insights into the complexity of the dynamics of this disease and study the drivers, a comprehensive model capable of both robust forecasting and insightful inference of drivers while capturing the co-circulating of several virus strains is essential. However, existing studies mostly focus on only one aspect at a time and do not integrate and carry insights across the siloed approach. While mechanistic models are developed to capture immunity dynamics, they are often oversimplified and lack integration of all the diverse drivers of disease transmission. On the other hand, purely data-driven methods lack constraints imposed by immuno-epidemiological processes, making them prone to overfitting and inference bias. This research presents a hybrid model that combines machine learning techniques with mechanistic modelling to overcome the limitations of existing approaches. Leveraging eight years of newly reported dengue case data, along with socioeconomic factors, such as human mobility, weekly climate data from 2011 to 2018, genetic data detecting the introduction and presence of new strains, and estimates of seropositivity for different districts in Sri Lanka, we derive a data-driven vector (SEI) to human (SEIR) model across 16 regions in Sri Lanka at the weekly time scale. By conducting ablation studies, the lag effects allowing delays up to 12 weeks of time-varying climate factors were determined. The model demonstrates superior predictive performance over a pure machine learning approach when considering lead times of 5 and 10 weeks on data withheld from model fitting. It further reveals several interesting interpretable findings of drivers while adjusting for the dynamics and influences of immunity and introduction of a new strain. The study uncovers strong influences of socioeconomic variables: population density, mobility, household income and rural vs. urban population. The study reveals substantial sensitivity to the diurnal temperature range and precipitation, while mean temperature and humidity appear less important in the study location. Additionally, the model indicated sensitivity to vegetation index, both max and average. Predictions on testing data reveal high model accuracy. Overall, this study advances the knowledge of dengue transmission in Sri Lanka and demonstrates the importance of incorporating hybrid modelling techniques to use biologically informed model structures with flexible data-driven estimates of model parameters. The findings show the potential to both inference of drivers in situations of complex disease dynamics and robust forecasting models.

Keywords: compartmental model, climate, dengue, machine learning, social-economic

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