Search results for: endogenous switching regression model

Authors: S. Slimani, B. Djellouli

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Novel materials and innovative device structures has become necessary for the future of CMOS. High mobility materials like Ge is a very promising material due to its high mobility and is being considered to replace Si in the channel to achieve higher drive currents and switching speeds .Various approaches to circumvent the scaling limits to benchmark the performance of nanoscale MOSFETS with different channel materials, the optimized structure is simulated within nextnano in order to highlight the quantum effects on DG MOSFETs when Si is replaced by Ge and SiO2 is replaced by ZrO2 and HfO2as the gate dielectric. The results have shown that Ge MOSFET have the highest mobility and high permittivity oxides serve to maintain high drive current. The simulations show significant improvements compared with DGMOSFET using SiO2 gate dielectric and Si channel.

Keywords: high mobility, high-k, quantum effects, SOI-DGMOSFET

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Authors: Swati Bhomia, C. M. Kishtawal, Neeru Jaiswal

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Traditionally, monsoon forecasts have encountered many difficulties that stem from numerous issues such as lack of adequate upper air observations, mesoscale nature of convection, proper resolution, radiative interactions, planetary boundary layer physics, mesoscale air-sea fluxes, representation of orography, etc. Uncertainties in any of these areas lead to large systematic errors. Global circulation models (GCMs), which are developed independently at different institutes, each of which carries somewhat different representation of the above processes, can be combined to reduce the collective local biases in space, time, and for different variables from different models. This is the basic concept behind the multi-model superensemble and comprises of a training and a forecast phase. The training phase learns from the recent past performances of models and is used to determine statistical weights from a least square minimization via a simple multiple regression. These weights are then used in the forecast phase. The superensemble forecasts carry the highest skill compared to simple ensemble mean, bias corrected ensemble mean and the best model out of the participating member models. This approach is a powerful post-processing method for the estimation of weather forecast parameters reducing the direct model output errors. Although it can be applied successfully to the continuous parameters like temperature, humidity, wind speed, mean sea level pressure etc., in this paper, this approach is applied to rainfall, a parameter quite difficult to handle with standard post-processing methods, due to its high temporal and spatial variability. The present study aims at the development of advanced superensemble schemes comprising of 1-5 day daily precipitation forecasts from five state-of-the-art global circulation models (GCMs), i.e., European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (Europe), National Center for Environmental Prediction (USA), China Meteorological Administration (China), Canadian Meteorological Centre (Canada) and U.K. Meteorological Office (U.K.) obtained from THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE), which is one of the most complete data set available. The novel approaches include the dynamical model selection approach in which the selection of the superior models from the participating member models at each grid and for each forecast step in the training period is carried out. Multi-model superensemble based on the training using similar conditions is also discussed in the present study, which is based on the assumption that training with the similar type of conditions may provide the better forecasts in spite of the sequential training which is being used in the conventional multi-model ensemble (MME) approaches. Further, a variety of methods that incorporate a 'neighborhood' around each grid point which is available in literature to allow for spatial error or uncertainty, have also been experimented with the above mentioned approaches. The comparison of these schemes with respect to the observations verifies that the newly developed approaches provide more unified and skillful prediction of the summer monsoon (viz. June to September) rainfall compared to the conventional multi-model approach and the member models.

Keywords: multi-model superensemble, dynamical model selection, similarity criteria, neighborhood technique, rainfall prediction

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Authors: Budi Nurani Ruchjana, Atje Setiawan Abdullah, I. Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya, Eddy Hermawan

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In this paper, we propose the application package to estimate parameters of spatiotemporal model based on the multivariate time series analysis using the R open-source software. We build packages mainly to estimate the parameters of the Generalized Space Time Autoregressive (GSTAR) model. GSTAR is a combination of time series and spatial models that have parameters vary per location. We use the method of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and use the Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE) to fit the model to spatiotemporal real phenomenon. For case study, we use oil production data from volcanic layer at Jatibarang Indonesia or climate data such as rainfall in Indonesia. Software R is very user-friendly and it is making calculation easier, processing the data is accurate and faster. Limitations R script for the estimation of model parameters spatiotemporal GSTAR built is still limited to a stationary time series model. Therefore, the R program under windows can be developed either for theoretical studies and application.

Keywords: GSTAR Model, MAPE, OLS method, oil production, R software

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Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow

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A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Keywords: forecasting model, steel demand uncertainty, hierarchical Bayesian framework, exponential smoothing method

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Authors: Soroor K. H. Al-Khafaji, Manal Mohammad Abed

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The research aim of this paper is to evaluate the reliability of a complex engineering system and to design a fuzzy model for the reliability estimation. The designed model has been applied on Vegetable Oil Purification System (neutralization system) to help the specialist user based on the concept of FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) to estimate the reliability of the repairable system at the vegetable oil industry. The fuzzy model has been used to predict the system reliability for a future time period, depending on a historical database for the two past years. The model can help to specify the system malfunctions and to predict its reliability during a future period in more accurate and reasonable results compared with the results obtained by the traditional method of reliability estimation.

Keywords: fuzzy logic, reliability, repairable systems, FMEA

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Authors: Kuan-Chou Chen

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This paper will demonstrate a simulation model of an information security system by using the systems dynamic approach. The relationships in the system model are designed to be simple and functional and do not necessarily represent any particular information security environments. The purpose of the paper aims to develop a generic system dynamic information security system model with implications on information security research. The interrelated and interdependent relationships of five primary sectors in the system dynamic model will be presented in this paper. The integrated information security systems model will include (1) information security characteristics, (2) users, (3) technology, (4) business functions, and (5) policy and management. Environments, attacks, government and social culture will be defined as the external sector. The interactions within each of these sectors will be depicted by system loop map as well. The proposed system dynamic model will not only provide a conceptual framework for information security analysts and designers but also allow information security managers to remove the incongruity between the management of risk incidents and the management of knowledge and further support information security managers and decision makers the foundation for managerial actions and policy decisions.

Keywords: system thinking, information security systems, security management, simulation

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Authors: Amin Salighehdar, Ziwen Ye, Mingzhe Liu, Ionut Florescu, Alan F. Blumberg

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Storm surge is an abnormal water level caused by a storm. Accurate prediction of a storm surge is a challenging problem. Researchers developed various ensemble modeling techniques to combine several individual forecasts to produce an overall presumably better forecast. There exist some simple ensemble modeling techniques in literature. For instance, Model Output Statistics (MOS), and running mean-bias removal are widely used techniques in storm surge prediction domain. However, these methods have some drawbacks. For instance, MOS is based on multiple linear regression and it needs a long period of training data. To overcome the shortcomings of these simple methods, researchers propose some advanced methods. For instance, ENSURF (Ensemble SURge Forecast) is a multi-model application for sea level forecast. This application creates a better forecast of sea level using a combination of several instances of the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). An ensemble dressing method is based on identifying best member forecast and using it for prediction. Our contribution in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, we investigate whether the ensemble models perform better than any single forecast. Therefore, we need to identify the single best forecast. We present a methodology based on a simple Bayesian selection method to select the best single forecast. Second, we present several new and simple ways to construct ensemble models. We use correlation and standard deviation as weights in combining different forecast models. Third, we use these ensembles and compare with several existing models in literature to forecast storm surge level. We then investigate whether developing a complex ensemble model is indeed needed. To achieve this goal, we use a simple average (one of the simplest and widely used ensemble model) as benchmark. Predicting the peak level of Surge during a storm as well as the precise time at which this peak level takes place is crucial, thus we develop a statistical platform to compare the performance of various ensemble methods. This statistical analysis is based on root mean square error of the ensemble forecast during the testing period and on the magnitude and timing of the forecasted peak surge compared to the actual time and peak. In this work, we analyze four hurricanes: hurricanes Irene and Lee in 2011, hurricane Sandy in 2012, and hurricane Joaquin in 2015. Since hurricane Irene developed at the end of August 2011 and hurricane Lee started just after Irene at the beginning of September 2011, in this study we consider them as a single contiguous hurricane event. The data set used for this study is generated by the New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System (NYHOPS). We find that even the simplest possible way of creating an ensemble produces results superior to any single forecast. We also show that the ensemble models we propose generally have better performance compared to the simple average ensemble technique.

Keywords: Bayesian learning, ensemble model, statistical analysis, storm surge prediction

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Authors: Semih Sözer

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One of the most common issues in economic systems is understanding characteristics of economic activities in cities and regions. Although there are critics to economic base models in conceptual and empirical aspects, these models are useful tools to examining the economic structure of a nation, regions or cities. This paper uses one of the methodologies of economic base models namely the location quotients model. Data for this model includes employment numbers of provinces and NUTS II regions in Turkey. Time series of data covers the years of 1990, 2000, 2003, and 2009. Aim of this study is finding which sectors are export-base and which sectors are import-base in provinces and regions. Model results show that big provinces or powerful regions (population, size etc.) mostly have basic sectors in their economic system. However, interesting facts came from different sectors in different provinces and regions in the model results.

Keywords: economic base, location quotients model, regional economics, regional development

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Authors: Sofia Lazareva, Artem Smolentsev

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Fluorescent photochromic materials collect strong interest due to their possible application in organic photonics such as optical logic systems, optical memory, visualizing sensors, as well as characterization of polymers and biological systems. In photochromic fluorescence switching systems the emission of fluorophore is modulated between ‘on’ and ‘off’ via the photoisomerization of photochromic moieties resulting in effective resonance energy transfer (FRET). In current work, we have studied both photochromic and fluorescent properties of several diarylethenes. It was found that coloured forms of these compounds are not fluorescent because of the efficient intramolecular energy transfer. Spectral and photochromic parameters of investigated substances have been measured in five solvents having different polarity. Quantum yields of photochromic transformation A↔B ΦA→B and ΦB→A as well as B isomer extinction coefficients were determined by kinetic method. It was found that the photocyclization reaction quantum yield of all compounds decreases with the increase of solvent polarity. In addition, the solvent polarity is revealed to affect fluorescence significantly. Increasing of the solvent dielectric constant was found to result in a strong shift of emission band position from 450 nm (nhexane) to 550 nm (DMSO and ethanol) for all three compounds. Moreover, the emission intensive in polar solvents becomes weak and hardly detectable in n-hexane. The only one exception in the described dependence is abnormally low fluorescence quantum yield in ethanol presumably caused by the loss of electron-donating properties of nitrogen atom due to the protonation. An effect of the protonation was also confirmed by the addition of concentrated HCl in solution resulting in a complete disappearance of the fluorescent band. Excited state dynamics were investigated by ultrafast optical spectroscopy methods. Kinetic curves of excited states absorption and fluorescence decays were measured. Lifetimes of transient states were calculated from the data measured. The mechanism of ring opening reaction was found to be polarity dependent. Comparative analysis of kinetics measured in acetonitrile and hexane reveals differences in relaxation dynamics after the laser pulse. The most important fact is the presence of two decay processes in acetonitrile, whereas only one is present in hexane. This fact supports an assumption made on the basis of steady-state preliminary experiments that in polar solvents occur stabilization of TICT state. Thus, results achieved prove the hypothesis of two channel mechanism of energy relaxation of compounds studied.

Keywords: diarylethenes, fluorescence switching, FRET, photochromism, TICT state

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Authors: Meng-Huan Wu, Wei-Er Wang, Tsu-Nai Wang, Wei-Jian Hsu, Vincent Chin-Hung Chen

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Objective: Studies have reported a strong link between asthma and bipolar disorder. We conducted a 17-year community-based large cohort study to examine the relationship between asthma, early smoking initiation, and bipolar disorder during adolescence and early adulthood. Methods: A total of 162,766 participants aged 11–16 years were categorized into asthma and non-asthma groups at baseline and compared within the observation period. Covariates during late childhood or adolescence included parental education, cigarette smoking by family members of participants, and participant’s gender, age, alcohol consumption, smoking, and exercise habits. Data for urbanicity, prednisone use, allergic comorbidity, and Charlson comorbidity index were acquired from the National Health Insurance Research Database. The Cox proportional-hazards model was used to evaluate the association between asthma and bipolar disorder. Results: Our findings revealed that asthma increased the risk of bipolar disorder after adjustment for key confounders in the Cox proportional hazard regression model (adjusted HR: 1.31, 95% CI: 1.12-1.53). Hospitalizations or visits to the emergency department for asthma exhibited a dose–response effect on bipolar disorder (adjusted HR: 1.59, 95% CI: 1.22-2.06). Patients with asthma with onset before 20 years of age who smoked during late childhood or adolescence had the greatest risk for bipolar disorder (adjusted HR: 3.10, 95% CI: 1.29-7.44). Conclusions: Patients newly diagnosed with asthma had a 1.3 times higher risk of developing bipolar disorder. Smoking during late childhood or adolescence increases the risk of developing bipolar disorder in patients with asthma.

Keywords: adolescence, asthma, smoking, bipolar disorder, early adulthood

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Authors: Sirus Sharifi, Arunima Haldar, S. V. D. Nageswara Rao

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The study attempts to analyze the impact of credit risk management practices of Indian scheduled commercial banks on their non-performing assets (NPAs). The data on credit risk practices was collected by administering a questionnaire to risk managers/executives at different banks. The data on NPAs (from 2012 to 2016) is sourced from Prowess, a database compiled by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). The model was estimated using cross-sectional regression method. As expected, the findings suggest that there is a negative relationship between credit risk management and NPA growth in Indian banks. The study has implications for Indian banks given the high level of losses, and the implementation of Basel III norms by the central bank, i.e. Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Evidence on credit risk management in Indian banks, and their relationship with non-performing assets held by them.

Keywords: credit risk, identification, Indian Banks, NPAs, ownership

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Authors: Asror Nigmonov Asqar Ogli, Sitora Inoyatova Amonovna

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It has been a decade when the crowdfunding and P2P lending opportunities were created. Today, the market of these modern alternative investments is becoming increasingly complex to navigate. There are overwhelming amount of peer-to-peer lending platforms both in developed and emerging economies. This study looks into this market via the cross country empirical study. In this respect, it tests the effect of various macroeconomic factors on P2P loan lending. Based on the existing literature that largely lacks empirical investigations, it builds regression model that aims to explore the relationship between economy and P2P lending. Though the author found it extremely difficult to compare the findings with earlier studies, this paper had identified certain tendencies in the data and had certain policy implications. However, the paper could not find any significant effect of economic variables on P2P lending. The paper can be considered as a starting point in empirical investigation of P2P lending and highlights room further research based on limitations of the study.

Keywords: peer-to-peer lending, crowdfunding, marketplace lending, alternative finance, fintech

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Authors: Albert Gyamfi

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Cocoa plays critical role in the socio-economic development of Ghana. Meanwhile, smallholder farmers most of whom are illiterate dominate the industry. According to the cocoa-based agricultural knowledge and information system (AKIS) model knowledge is created and transferred to the industry between three key actors: cocoa researchers, extension experts, and cocoa farmers. Dwelling on the SECI model, the media richness theory (MRT), and the AKIS model, a conceptual model of web 2.0-based AKIS model (AKIS 2.0) is developed and used to assess the possible effects of social media usage for knowledge creation in the Ghanaian cocoa industry. A mixed method approach with a survey questionnaire was employed, and a second-order multi-group structural equation model (SEM) was used to analyze the data. The study concludes that the use of web 2.0 applications for knowledge creation would lead to sustainable interactions among the key knowledge actors for effective knowledge creation in the cocoa industry in Ghana.

Keywords: agriculture, cocoa, knowledge, media, web 2.0

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Authors: Subhadip Biswas, Shivendra Maurya, Satish Chandra, Indrajit Ghosh

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Developing speed model is a challenging task particularly under mixed traffic condition where the traffic composition plays a significant role in determining vehicular speed. The present research has been conducted to model individual vehicular speed in the context of mixed traffic on an urban arterial. Traffic speed and volume data have been collected from three midblock arterial road sections in New Delhi. Using the field data, a volume based speed prediction model has been developed adopting the methodology of Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The model developed in this work is capable of estimating speed for individual vehicle category. Validation results show a great deal of agreement between the observed speeds and the predicted values by the model developed. Also, it has been observed that the ANN based model performs better compared to other existing models in terms of accuracy. Finally, the sensitivity analysis has been performed utilizing the model in order to examine the effects of traffic volume and its composition on individual speeds.

Keywords: speed model, artificial neural network, arterial, mixed traffic

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Authors: Saad Bin Nasir

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This research will examine the impact of corporate governance on firm performance in family and non-family owned firms in Pakistan. For the purpose of this research, corporate governance mechanisms which included are board size, board composition, leadership structure, board meetings are taken as independent variable and firm performance taken as dependent variable and it will be measured with return on asset and return on equity. Firm size and firm’s age will be taken as control variables. Secondary data will collect from audited annul reports of companies and panel data regression model will applied, to check the impact of corporate governance on firm performance.

Keywords: board size, board composition, Leadership Structure, board meetings, firm performance, family and non-family owned firms

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Authors: Marwa A. A. Ragab, Hadir M. Maher, Eman I. El-Kimary

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Co-administration of methotrexate (MTX) and aspirin (ASP) can cause a pharmacokinetic interaction and a subsequent increase in blood MTX concentrations which may increase the risk of MTX toxicity. Therefore, it is important to develop a sensitive, selective, accurate and precise method for their simultaneous determination in urine. A new hybrid chemometric method has been applied to the emission response data of the two drugs. Spectrofluorimetric method for determination of MTX through measurement of its acid-degradation product, 4-amino-4-deoxy-10-methylpteroic acid (4-AMP), was developed. Moreover, the acid-catalyzed degradation reaction enables the spectrofluorimetric determination of ASP through the formation of its active metabolite salicylic acid (SA). The proposed chemometric method deals with convolution of emission data using 8-points sin xi polynomials (discrete Fourier functions) after the derivative treatment of these emission data. The first and second derivative curves (D1 & D2) were obtained first then convolution of these curves was done to obtain first and second derivative under Fourier functions curves (D1/FF) and (D2/FF). This new application was used for the resolution of the overlapped emission bands of the degradation products of both drugs to allow their simultaneous indirect determination in human urine. Not only this chemometric approach was applied to the emission data but also the obtained data were subjected to non-parametric linear regression analysis (Theil’s method). The proposed method was fully validated according to the ICH guidelines and it yielded linearity ranges as follows: 0.05-0.75 and 0.5-2.5 µg mL-1 for MTX and ASP respectively. It was found that the non-parametric method was superior over the parametric one in the simultaneous determination of MTX and ASP after the chemometric treatment of the emission spectra of their degradation products. The work combines the advantages of derivative and convolution using discrete Fourier function together with the reliability and efficacy of the non-parametric analysis of data. The achieved sensitivity along with the low values of LOD (0.01 and 0.06 µg mL-1) and LOQ (0.04 and 0.2 µg mL-1) for MTX and ASP respectively, by the second derivative under Fourier functions (D2/FF) were promising and guarantee its application for monitoring the two drugs in patients’ urine samples.

Keywords: chemometrics, emission curves, derivative, convolution, Fourier transform, human urine, non-parametric regression, Theil’s method

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Authors: Xiaohui Pan

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As the most influential media for the dissemination of Chinese culture, films and television dramas have played cognitive orientation in guiding young audience to understand its cultural value. Taking a retrospective overview of the Chinese domestic film and television dramas in the last decade, it is tangible to notice that Westernization has become irresistible force in the presentation of Chinese youth culture, such as the rise of sensibility, publicity of subjectivity, and the resistance to mainstream discourse. However, the process of deconstruction and transition of these film and television works on Western youth culture brought about more comprehensive conflicts and integration rather than providing a panoramic interpretation to young Chinese. Issues of tradition and modernization, oriental and Western, and serious thinking and the spirit of entertainment overwhelmed those Chinese works. This study attempts to examine the mechanism of young Chinese’s resistance, compromise and re-construction in their marriages during the dynamic cultural intergration between traditional Chinese culture and Western culture. To investigate such a mechanism, this study analyzed four Chinese television dramas themed on family ethics to reveal the conflictions between two generations, mother-in-law and daughter-in-law, aiming to identify their strategies of their struggles. Incorporating the theory of Scott's weapons of the weak, this study examines the dynamic model of the struggles content analysis on their hidden language and the power. The finding shows that young Chinese identified their self-awakening during the resistance. The study also finds out that the external factors might have the functions of switching the power from the strong end to the weak end. The finding of this study can provide useful insights for researchers in this area and for those in the process of exploring cultural integration issues.

Keywords: intergration, integration, resistance, youth culture

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Authors: Maoxin Ye

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This study examines the relationship between social network sites (SNS) usage and social capital. Because SNS usage can expand the users’ networks, and people who are connected in this networks may become resources to SNS users and lead them to advantage in some situation, it is important to estimate the relationship between SNS usage and ‘who’ is connected or what resources the SNS users can get. Additionally, ‘who’ can be divided in two aspects – people who possess high position and people who are different, hence, it is important to estimate the relationship between SNS usage and high position people and different people. This study adapts Lin’s definition of social capital and the measurement of position generator which tells us who was connected, and can be divided into the same two aspects as well. A national data of America (N = 2,255) collected by Pew Research Center is utilized to do a general regression analysis about SNS usage and social capital. The results indicate that SNS usage is negatively associated with each factor of social capital, and it suggests that, in fact, comparing with non-users, although SNS users can get more connections, the variety and resources of these connections are fewer. For this reason, we could lose benefits through SNS usage.

Keywords: social network sites, social capital, position generator, general regression

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Authors: Reza Zarei

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The result of the present study is to determine the relation between spiritual intelligence and organizational health and job satisfaction among the female staff in Islamic Azad University of Marvdasht. The population of the study includes the female staff and the faculty of Islamic Azad University of Marvdasht. The method is correlational and the instrument in the research is three questionnaires namely the spiritual intelligence by (ISIS), Amraam and Dryer, organizational health by Fieldman and Job satisfaction questionnaire. In order to test the hypotheses we used interpretive statistics, Pearson and regression correlation coefficient. The findings show that there is a significant relation between the spiritual intelligence and organizational health among the female staff of this unit. In addition, the organizational health has a significant relation with the elements of self-consciousness and social skills and on the other hand, job satisfaction is in significant relation with the elements of self-consciousness, self-control, self-provocation, sympathy and social skills in the whole sample regardless of the participants' gender. Finally, the results of multiple regression and variance analysis showed that using the variables of the spiritual intelligence of the female staff could predict the organizational health and their job satisfaction.

Keywords: job satisfaction, spiritual intelligence, organizational health, Islamic Azad University

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Authors: Junaid Mahmood Alam

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Revalidating and harmonizing clinical chemistry analytical principles and optimizing methods through quality control programs and assessments is the preeminent means to attain optimal outcome within the clinical laboratory services. Present study reports revalidation of our existing IFCC regularized analytical methods, particularly hepatic and thyroid function tests, by optimization of precision analyses and processing through external and internal quality assessments and regression determination. Parametric components of hepatic (Bilirubin ALT, γGT, ALP), cardiac (LDH, AST, Trop I) and thyroid/pituitary (T3, T4, TSH, FT3, FT4) function tests were used to validate analytical techniques on automated chemistry and immunological analyzers namely Hitachi 912, Cobas 6000 e601, Cobas c501, Cobas e411 with UV kinetic, colorimetric dry chemistry principles and Electro-Chemiluminescence immunoassay (ECLi) techniques. Process of validation and revalidation was completed with evaluating and assessing the precision analyzed Preci-control data of various instruments plotting against each other with regression analyses R2. Results showed that: Revalidation and optimization of respective parameters that were accredited through CAP, CLSI and NEQAPP assessments depicted 99.0% to 99.8% optimization, in addition to the methodology and instruments used for analyses. Regression R2 analysis of BilT was 0.996, whereas that of ALT, ALP, γGT, LDH, AST, Trop I, T3, T4, TSH, FT3, and FT4 exhibited R2 0.998, 0.997, 0.993, 0.967, 0.970, 0.980, 0.976, 0.996, 0.997, 0.997, and R2 0.990, respectively. This confirmed marked harmonization of analytical methods and instrumentations thus revalidating optimized precision standardization as per IFCC recommended guidelines. It is concluded that practices of revalidating and harmonizing the existing or any new services should be followed by all clinical laboratories, especially those associated with tertiary care hospital. This is will ensure deliverance of standardized, proficiency tested, optimized services for prompt and better patient care that will guarantee maximum patients’ confidence.

Keywords: revalidation, standardized, IFCC, CAP, harmonized

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Authors: Katarzyna Wyka, Dana Sylvan, JoAnn Difede

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Background and significance: The following disaster, population-based screening programs are routinely established to assess physical and psychological consequences of exposure. These data sets are highly skewed as only a small percentage of trauma-exposed individuals develop health issues. Commonly used statistical methodology in post-disaster mental health generally involves population-averaged models. Such models aim to capture the overall response to the disaster and its aftermath; however, they may not be sensitive enough to accommodate population heterogeneity in symptomatology, such as post-traumatic stress or depressive symptoms. Methods: We use an archival longitudinal data set from Weill-Cornell 9/11 Mental Health Screening Program established following the World Trade Center (WTC) terrorist attacks in New York in 2001. Participants are rescue and recovery workers who participated in the site cleanup and restoration (n=2960). The main outcome is the post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTSD) severity score assessed via clinician interviews (CAPS). For a detailed understanding of response to the disaster and its aftermath, we are adapting quantile regression methodology with particular focus on predictors of extreme distress and resilience to trauma. Results: The response variable was defined as the quantile of the CAPS score for each individual under two different scenarios specifying the unconditional quantiles based on: 1) clinically meaningful CAPS cutoff values and 2) CAPS distribution in the population. We present graphical summaries of the differential effects. For instance, we found that the effect of the WTC exposures, namely seeing bodies and feeling that life was in danger during rescue/recovery work was associated with very high PTSD symptoms. A similar effect was apparent in individuals with prior psychiatric history. Differential effects were also present for age and education level of the individuals. Conclusion: We evaluate the utility of quantile regression in disaster research in contrast to the commonly used population-averaged models. We focused on assessing the distribution of risk factors for post-traumatic stress symptoms across quantiles. This innovative approach provides a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between dependent and independent variables and could be used for developing tailored training programs and response plans for different vulnerability groups.

Keywords: disaster workers, post traumatic stress, PTSD, quantile regression

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Authors: Anderson Ngowa Chembe, John Olukuru

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Greenhouse emissions by human activities are known to irreversibly increase global temperatures through the greenhouse effect. This study seeks to propose a mortality model with sensitivity to heat-change effects as one of the underlying parameters in the model. As such, the study sought to establish the relationship between greenhouse emissions and mortality indices in five OECD countries (USA, UK, Japan, Canada & Germany). Upon the establishment of the relationship using correlation analysis, an additional parameter that accounts for the sensitivity of heat-changes to mortality rates was incorporated in the Lee-Carter model. Based on the proposed model, new parameter estimates were calculated using iterative algorithms for optimization. Finally, the goodness of fit for the original Lee-Carter model and the proposed model were compared using deviance comparison. The proposed model provides a better fit to mortality rates especially in USA, UK and Germany where the mortality indices have a strong positive correlation with the level of greenhouse emissions. The results of this study are of particular importance to actuaries, demographers and climate-risk experts who seek to use better mortality-modeling techniques in the wake of heat effects caused by increased greenhouse emissions.

Keywords: climate risk, greenhouse emissions, Lee-Carter model, OECD

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Authors: Ibrahim A. Aref, Tarek El-Mihoub, Khadiga Ben Musa

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This paper presents Carrier Sense Multiple Access (CSMA) communication model based on SoC design methodology. Such model can be used to support the modelling of the complex wireless communication systems, therefore use of such communication model is an important technique in the construction of high performance communication. SystemC has been chosen because it provides a homogeneous design flow for complex designs (i.e. SoC and IP based design). We use a swarm system to validate CSMA designed model and to show how advantages of incorporating communication early in the design process. The wireless communication created through the modeling of CSMA protocol that can be used to achieve communication between all the agents and to coordinate access to the shared medium (channel).

Keywords: systemC, modelling, simulation, CSMA

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Authors: Vinayaka Gude Divya Sampath

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The research introduces an integrated prediction model to assess the susceptibility of roads in a future flooding event. The model consists of deep learning algorithm for forecasting gauge height data and Flood Inundation Mapper (FIM) for spatial flooding. An optimal architecture for Long short-term memory network (LSTM) was identified for the gauge located on Tangipahoa River at Robert, LA. Dropout was applied to the model to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the predictions. The estimates are then used along with FIM to identify the spatial flooding. Further geoprocessing in ArcGIS provides the susceptibility values for different roads. The model was validated based on the devastating flood of August 2016. The paper discusses the challenges for generalization the methodology for other locations and also for various types of flooding. The developed model can be used by the transportation department and other emergency response organizations for effective disaster management.

Keywords: deep learning, disaster management, flood prediction, urban flooding

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Authors: Charles Simplice Mbatsogo Mebo

Abstract:

With growth picking up again, Africa seems increasingly attractive for its own nationals who return home through new opportunities available for them. The purpose of our research paper is to understand the role of the international partners in Cameroon, with regards to their support for the return and reintegration of migrants. We, therefore, questioned the relevance and effectiveness and efficacy of international instruments in reintegrating returnees to Cameroon. After our analysis that was conducted on the basis of a documentary exploration, interviews, and field surveys, it appears that the contribution of the international partners in Cameroon is proven in relation to their participation in the financing and placement of returned experts. However, their contribution remains insufficient due to their low level of deployment and the insignificant impact of their investments on the reintegration of Cameroonian Diasporas. The research also reveals some exogenous and endogenous constraints that hinder international institutions' actions in terms of accompanying migrants returning to Cameroon. Finally, for a better management of the returnees' issue, it is necessary to set up a mechanism to raise awareness and a coordination system of all international actors involved. It is also relevant to reform the migration policy, build institutional capacities, and improve the juridical-administrative and economic environment so as to favor co-development in Cameroon.

Keywords: international partners, returnees, diaspora, migration policy, co-development

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Authors: Oscar Javier Herrera Ochoa, Ivan Dario Romero Fonseca

Abstract:

This paper presents a design of a model for planning the distribution logistics operation. The significance of this work relies on the applicability of this fact to the analysis of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) of dry freight in Bogotá. Two stages constitute this implementation: the first one is the place where optimal planning is achieved through a hybrid model developed with mixed integer programming, which considers the transhipment operation based on a combined load allocation model as a classic transshipment model; the second one is the specific routing of that operation through the heuristics of Clark and Wright. As a result, an integral model is obtained to carry out the step by step planning of the distribution of dry freight for SMEs in Bogotá. In this manner, optimum assignments are established by utilizing transshipment centers with that purpose of determining the specific routing based on the shortest distance traveled.

Keywords: transshipment model, mixed integer programming, saving algorithm, dry freight transportation

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Authors: Mensah-Akoto Julius, Kenichi Matsui

Abstract:

This paper examines the impact of COVID-19 on waste management workers in Ghana. A questionnaire survey was conducted among 60 waste management workers in Accra metropolis, the capital region of Ghana, to understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on waste generation, workers’ safety in collecting solid waste, and service delivery. To find out correlations between the pandemic and safety of waste management workers, a regression analysis was used. Regarding waste generation, the results show the pandemic led to the highest annual per capita solid waste generation, or 3,390 tons, in 2020. Regarding the safety of workers, the regression analysis shows a significant and inverse association between COVID-19 and waste management services. This means that contaminated wastes may infect field workers with COVID-19 due to their direct exposure. A rise in new infection cases would have a negative impact on the safety and service delivery of the workers. The result also shows that an increase in economic activities negatively impacts waste management workers. The analysis, however, finds no statistical relationship between workers’ service deliveries and employees’ salaries. The study then discusses how municipal waste management authorities can ensure safe and effective waste collection during the pandemic.

Keywords: Covid-19, waste management worker, waste collection, Ghana

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Authors: Golamhassan Ghahramani Aghdam, Pedram Bavili Tabrizi

Abstract:

The aim of this research is to investigate the relationship between accounting information and the value of the companies accepted in Tehran Exchange Market. The dependent variable in this research is the value of a company that is measured by price coefficients, and the independent variables are balance sheet information, profit and loss information, cash flow state information, and profit quality characteristics. The profit quality characteristic index is to be related and to be on-time. This research is an application research, and the research population includes all companies that are active in Tehran exchange market. The number of 194 companies was selected by the systematic method as the statistics sample in the period of 2018-2019. The multi-variable linear regression model was used for the hypotheses test. The results show that there is no relationship between accounting information and companies’ value (stock value) that can be due to the lack of efficiency of the investment market and the inability to use the accounting information by investment market activists.

Keywords: accounting information, company value, profit quality characteristics, price coefficient

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Authors: Ma Lanting, S. Eguilior, A. Hurtado, Juan F. Llamas Borrajo

Abstract:

Horizontal hydraulic fracturing is a technology to increase natural gas flow and improve productivity in the low permeability formation. During this drilling operation tons of flowback and produced water which contains many organic compounds return to the surface with a potential risk of influencing the surrounding environment and human health. A mathematical model is urgently needed to represent organic compounds in water transportation process behavior and the concentration change with time throughout the hydraulic fracturing operation life cycle. A comprehensive model combined Organic Matter Transport Dynamic Model with Two-Compartment First-order Model Constant (TFRC) Model has been established to quantify the organic compounds concentration. This algorithm model is composed of two transportation parts based on time factor. For the fast part, the curve fitting technique is applied using flowback water data from the Marcellus shale gas site fracturing and the coefficients of determination (R2) from all analyzed compounds demonstrate a high experimental feasibility of this numerical model. Furthermore, along a decade of drilling the concentration ratio curves have been estimated by the slow part of this model. The result shows that the larger value of Koc in chemicals, the later maximum concentration in water will reach, as well as all the maximum concentrations percentage would reach up to 90% of initial concentration from shale formation within a long sufficient period.

Keywords: model, shale gas, concentration, organic compounds

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Authors: Supunmali Ahangama, Danny Chiang Choon Poo

Abstract:

Health analytics (HA) is used in healthcare systems for effective decision-making, management, and planning of healthcare and related activities. However, user resistance, the unique position of medical data content, and structure (including heterogeneous and unstructured data) and impromptu HA projects have held up the progress in HA applications. Notably, the accuracy of outcomes depends on the skills and the domain knowledge of the data analyst working on the healthcare data. The success of HA depends on having a sound process model, effective project management and availability of supporting tools. Thus, to overcome these challenges through an effective process model, we propose an HA process model with features from the rational unified process (RUP) model and agile methodology.

Keywords: agile methodology, health analytics, unified process model, UML

Procedia PDF Downloads 497