Search results for: gas holdup fluctuations
288 Impact of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Hail in Eastern Georgia
Authors: MIkheil Pipia, Nazibrola Beglarashvili
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Modern anthropogenic changes in climate can affect the microphysical and electrical properties of clouds, such as the conditions that cause intense hail and lightning. At the same time, the effect of the impact largely depends on the physical-geographical conditions and the ecological situation. It should be noted that the growth of anthropogenic pollution in the atmosphere has a significant impact on the dynamics of hail processes. For the statistical analysis of the number of hail days against the background of modern climate change, the average number of hail days at the stations according to decades was used, which allows to weaken short-term fluctuations and reveal long-term changes. In order to determine the dynamics of hail days in Eastern Georgia, the observation data of some meteorological stations from 1951-2000 were analyzed. In total, the data of 41 meteorological stations of Eastern Georgia about hail for the period of 1961-2018 have been processed.Keywords: climate, meteorology phenomena, anthropocenic influence, hail
Procedia PDF Downloads 66287 Tumor Detection of Cerebral MRI by Multifractal Analysis
Authors: S. Oudjemia, F. Alim, S. Seddiki
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This paper shows the application of multifractal analysis for additional help in cancer diagnosis. The medical image processing is a very important discipline in which many existing methods are in search of solutions to real problems of medicine. In this work, we present results of multifractal analysis of brain MRI images. The purpose of this analysis was to separate between healthy and cancerous tissue of the brain. A nonlinear method based on multifractal detrending moving average (MFDMA) which is a generalization of the detrending fluctuations analysis (DFA) is used for the detection of abnormalities in these images. The proposed method could make separation of the two types of brain tissue with success. It is very important to note that the choice of this non-linear method is due to the complexity and irregularity of tumor tissue that linear and classical nonlinear methods seem difficult to characterize completely. In order to show the performance of this method, we compared its results with those of the conventional method box-counting.Keywords: irregularity, nonlinearity, MRI brain images, multifractal analysis, brain tumor
Procedia PDF Downloads 437286 The Role of Metal-Induced Gap States in the Superconducting Qubit Decoherence at Low-Dimension
Authors: Dominik Szczesniak, Sabre Kais
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In the present communication, we analyze selected local aspects of the metal-induced gap states (MIGSs) that may be responsible for the magnetic flux noise in some of the superconducting qubit modalities at low-dimension. The presented theoretical analysis stems from the earlier bulk considerations and is aimed at further explanation of the decoherence effect by recognizing its universal character. Specifically, the analysis is carried out by using the complex band structure method for arbitrary low-dimensional junctions. This allows us to provide the most fundamental and general observations for the systems of interest. In particular, herein, we investigate in detail the MIGSs behavior in the momentum space as a function of the potential fluctuations and the electron-electron interaction magnitude at the interface. In what follows, this study is meant to provide a direct relationship between the MIGSs behavior, the discussed decoherence effect, and the intrinsic properties of the low-dimensional Josephson junctions.Keywords: superconducting qubits, metal-induced gap states, decoherence, low-dimension
Procedia PDF Downloads 133285 An Adaptive Decomposition for the Variability Analysis of Observation Time Series in Geophysics
Authors: Olivier Delage, Thierry Portafaix, Hassan Bencherif, Guillaume Guimbretiere
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Most observation data sequences in geophysics can be interpreted as resulting from the interaction of several physical processes at several time and space scales. As a consequence, measurements time series in geophysics have often characteristics of non-linearity and non-stationarity and thereby exhibit strong fluctuations at all time-scales and require a time-frequency representation to analyze their variability. Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) is a relatively new technic as part of a more general signal processing method called the Hilbert-Huang transform. This analysis method turns out to be particularly suitable for non-linear and non-stationary signals and consists in decomposing a signal in an auto adaptive way into a sum of oscillating components named IMFs (Intrinsic Mode Functions), and thereby acts as a bank of bandpass filters. The advantages of the EMD technic are to be entirely data driven and to provide the principal variability modes of the dynamics represented by the original time series. However, the main limiting factor is the frequency resolution that may give rise to the mode mixing phenomenon where the spectral contents of some IMFs overlap each other. To overcome this problem, J. Gilles proposed an alternative entitled “Empirical Wavelet Transform” (EWT) which consists in building from the segmentation of the original signal Fourier spectrum, a bank of filters. The method used is based on the idea utilized in the construction of both Littlewood-Paley and Meyer’s wavelets. The heart of the method lies in the segmentation of the Fourier spectrum based on the local maxima detection in order to obtain a set of non-overlapping segments. Because linked to the Fourier spectrum, the frequency resolution provided by EWT is higher than that provided by EMD and therefore allows to overcome the mode-mixing problem. On the other hand, if the EWT technique is able to detect the frequencies involved in the original time series fluctuations, EWT does not allow to associate the detected frequencies to a specific mode of variability as in the EMD technic. Because EMD is closer to the observation of physical phenomena than EWT, we propose here a new technic called EAWD (Empirical Adaptive Wavelet Decomposition) based on the coupling of the EMD and EWT technics by using the IMFs density spectral content to optimize the segmentation of the Fourier spectrum required by EWT. In this study, EMD and EWT technics are described, then EAWD technic is presented. Comparison of results obtained respectively by EMD, EWT and EAWD technics on time series of ozone total columns recorded at Reunion island over [1978-2019] period is discussed. This study was carried out as part of the SOLSTYCE project dedicated to the characterization and modeling of the underlying dynamics of time series issued from complex systems in atmospheric sciencesKeywords: adaptive filtering, empirical mode decomposition, empirical wavelet transform, filter banks, mode-mixing, non-linear and non-stationary time series, wavelet
Procedia PDF Downloads 129284 Investigation and Analysis of Vortex-Induced Vibrations in Sliding Gate Valves Using Computational Fluid Dynamics
Authors: Kianoosh Ahadi, Mustafa Ergil
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In this study, the event of vibrations caused by vortexes and the distribution of induced hydrodynamic forces due to vortexes on the sliding gate valves has been investigated. For this reason, a sliding valve with the help of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software was simulated in two-dimensional )2D(, where the flow and turbulence equations were solved for three different valve openings (full, half, and 16.7 %) models. The variety of vortexes formed within the vicinity of the valve structure was investigated based on time where the trend of fluctuations and their occurrence regions have been detected. From the gathered solution dataset of the numerical simulations, the pressure coefficient (CP), the lift force coefficient (CL), the drag force coefficient (CD), and the momentum coefficient due to hydrodynamic forces (CM) were examined, and relevant figures were generated were from these results, the vortex-induced vibrations were analyzed.Keywords: induced vibrations, computational fluid dynamics, sliding gate valves, vortexes
Procedia PDF Downloads 108283 Study of Cavitation Erosion of Pump-Storage Hydro Power Plant Prototype
Authors: Tine Cencič, Marko Hočevar, Brane Širok
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An experimental investigation has been made to detect cavitation in pump–storage hydro power plant prototype suffering from cavitation in pump mode. Vibrations and acoustic emission on the housing of turbine bearing and pressure fluctuations in the draft tube were measured and the corresponding signals have been recorded and analyzed. The analysis was based on the analysis of high-frequency content of measured variables. The pump-storage hydro power plant prototype has been operated at various input loads and Thoma numbers. Several estimators of cavitation were evaluated according to coefficient of determination between Thoma number and cavitation estimators. The best results were achieved with a compound discharge coefficient cavitation estimator. Cavitation estimators were evaluated in several intervals of frequencies. Also, a prediction of cavitation erosion was made in order to choose the appropriate maintenance and repair periods.Keywords: cavitation erosion, turbine, cavitation measurement, fluid dynamics
Procedia PDF Downloads 408282 Contracting Strategies to Foster Industrial Symbiosis Implementation
Authors: Robin Molinier
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Industrial symbiosis (I.S) deals with the exchange of waste materials, fatal energy and utilities as resources for production. While it brings environmental benefits from resource conservation its economic profitability is one of the main barriers to its implementation. I.S involves several actors with their own objectives and resources so that each actor must be satisfied by ex-ante arrangements to commit toward investments and transactions. Regarding I.S Transaction cost economics helps to identify hybrid forms of governance for transactions governance due to I.S projects specificities induced by the need for customization (asset specificity, non-homogeneity). Thus we propose a framework to analyze the best contractual practices tailored to address I.S specific risks that we identified as threefold (load profiles and quality mismatch, value fluctuations). Schemes from cooperative game theory and contracting management are integrated to analyze value flows between actors. Contractual guidelines are then proposed to address the identified risks and to split the value for a set of I.S archetypes drawn from actual experiences.Keywords: contracts, economics, industrial symbiosis, risks
Procedia PDF Downloads 203281 Analysis and Prediction of the Behavior of the Landslide at Ain El Hammam, Algeria Based on the Second Order Work Criterion
Authors: Zerarka Hizia, Akchiche Mustapha, Prunier Florent
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The landslide of Ain El Hammam (AEH) is characterized by a complex geology and a high hydrogeology hazard. AEH's perpetual reactivation compels us to look closely at its triggers and to better understand the mechanisms of its evolution in mass and in depth. This study builds a numerical model to simulate the influencing factors such as precipitation, non-saturation, and pore pressure fluctuations, using Plaxis software. For a finer analysis of instabilities, we use Hill's criterion, based on the sign of the second order work, which is the most appropriate material stability criterion for non-associated elastoplastic materials. The results of this type of calculation allow us, in theory, to predict the shape and position of the slip surface(s) which are liable to ground movements of the slope, before reaching the rupture given by the plastic limit of Mohr Coulomb. To validate the numerical model, an analysis of inclinometer measures is performed to confirm the direction of movement and kinematic of the sliding mechanism of AEH’s slope.Keywords: landslide, second order work, precipitation, inclinometers
Procedia PDF Downloads 172280 Redefining Solar Generation Estimation: A Comprehensive Analysis of Real Utility Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) Data from Various Projects in New York
Authors: Haowei Lu, Anaya Aaron
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Understanding historical solar generation and forecasting future solar generation from interconnected Distributed Energy Resources (DER) is crucial for utility planning and interconnection studies. The existing methodology, which relies on solar radiation, weather data, and common inverter models, is becoming less accurate. Rapid advancements in DER technologies have resulted in more diverse project sites, deviating from common patterns due to various factors such as DC/AC ratio, solar panel performance, tilt angle, and the presence of DC-coupled battery energy storage systems. In this paper, the authors review 10,000 DER projects within the system and analyze the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) data for various types to demonstrate the impact of different parameters. An updated methodology is proposed for redefining historical and future solar generation in distribution feeders.Keywords: photovoltaic system, solar energy, fluctuations, energy storage, uncertainty
Procedia PDF Downloads 19279 Gravity and Geodetic Control of Geodynamic Activity near Aswan Lake, Egypt
Authors: Anwar H. Radwan, Jan Mrlina, El-Sayed A. Issawy, Ali Rayan, Salah M. Mahmoud
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Geodynamic investigations in the Aswan Lake region were started after the M=5.5 earthquake in 1981, triggered by the lake water fluctuations. Besides establishing the seismological networks, also the geodetic observations focused on the Kalabsha and Sayal fault zones were started. It was found that the Kalabsha fault is an active dextral strike-slip with normal component indicating uplift on its southern side. However, the annual velocity rates in both components do not exceed 2 mm/y, and do not therefore represent extremely active faulting. We also launched gravity monitoring in 1997, and performed another two campaigns in 2000 and 2002. The observed non- tidal temporal gravity changes indicate rather the flood water infiltration into the porous Nubian sandstone, than tectonic stress effect. The station nearest to the lake exhibited about 60 μGal positive gravity change within the 1997-2002 period.Keywords: gravity monitoring, surface movements, Lake Aswan, groundwater change
Procedia PDF Downloads 493278 Geotechnical Distress Evaluation of a Damaged Structure
Authors: Zulfiqar Ali, Umar Saleem, Muhammad Junaid, Rizwan Tahir
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Gulzar Mahal is a heritage site located in the city of Bahawalpur, Pakistan. The site is under a process of degradation, as cracks are appearing on the walls, roofs, and floor around the building due to differential settlement. To preserve the integrity of the structure, a geotechnical distress evaluation was carried out to evaluate the causal factors and recommend remediation measures. The research involved the characterization of the problematic soil and analysis of the observed distress with respect to the geotechnical properties. Both conventional lab and field tests were used in conjunction with the unconventional techniques like; Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) and FEA. The temporal, geophysical and geotechnical evaluations have concluded that the foundation soil over the past was subjected to variations in the land use, poor drainage patterns, overloading and fluctuations in groundwater table all contributing to the differential settlements manifesting in the form of the visible shear crack across the length and breadth of the building.Keywords: differential settlement, distress evaluation, finite element analysis, Gulzar Mahal
Procedia PDF Downloads 122277 Impact of Climate Change on Water Level and Properties of Gorgan Bay in the Southern Caspian Sea
Authors: Siamak Jamshidi
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The Caspian Sea is the Earth's largest inland body of water. One of the most important issues related to the sea is water level changes. For measuring and recording Caspian Sea water level, there are at least three gauges and radar equipment in Anzali, Nowshahr and Amirabad Ports along the southern boundary of the Caspian Sea. It seems that evaporation, hotter surface air temperature, and in general climate change is the main reasons for its water level fluctuations. Gorgan Bay in the eastern part of the southern boundary of the Caspian Sea is one of the areas under the effect of water level fluctuation. Based on the results of field measurements near the Gorgan Bay mouth temperature ranged between 24°C–28°C and salinity was about 13.5 PSU in midsummer while temperature changed between 10-11.5°C and salinity mostly was 15-16.5 PSU in mid-winter. The decrease of Caspian Sea water level and rivers outflow are the two most important factors for the increase in water salinity of the Gorgan Bay. Results of field observations showed that, due to atmospheric factors, climate changes and decreasing of precipitation over the southern basin of the Caspian Sea during last decades, the water level of bay was reduced around 0.5 m.Keywords: Caspian Sea, Gorgan Bay, water level fluctuation, climate changes
Procedia PDF Downloads 164276 Far-Field Acoustic Prediction of a Supersonic Expanding Jet Using Large Eddy Simulation
Authors: Jesus Ruano, Asensi Oliva
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The hydrodynamic field generated by a jet expansion is computed via three dimensional compressible Large Eddy Simulation (LES). Finite Volume Method (FVM) will be the discretization used during this simulation as well as hybrid schemes based on Kinetic Energy Preserving (KEP) schemes and up-winding Godunov based schemes with instabilities detectors. Velocity and pressure fields will be stored at different surfaces near the jet, but far enough to enclose all the fluctuations, in order to use them as input for the acoustic solver. The acoustic field is obtained in the far-field region at several locations by means of a hybrid method based on Ffowcs-Williams and Hawkings (FWH) equation. This equation will be formulated in the spectral domain, via Fourier Transform of the acoustic sources, which are modeled from the results of the initial simulation. The obtained results will allow the study of the broadband noise generated as well as sound directivities.Keywords: far-field noise, Ffowcs-Williams and Hawkings, finite volume method, large eddy simulation, jet noise
Procedia PDF Downloads 290275 Understanding Factors that May Affect Survival and Productivity of Pacific Salmonids
Authors: Julia B. Kischkat, Charlie D. Waters
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This research aims to understand the factors that may affect the survival and productivity of Pacific salmonids through two components. The first component is lab-based and aims to improve high-performance liquid chromatography to better quantify vitamin deficiencies such as thiamine. The lab work is conducted at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Ted Stevens Marine Research Institute in Juneau, Alaska. Deficiencies in thiamine have been shown to reduce the survival of salmonids at early life stages. The second component involves the analysis of a 22-year data set of migration timing of juvenile Coho Salmon, Dolly Varden, Steelhead, and returning adult Steelhead at Little Port Walter, Alaska. The statistical analysis quantifies their migration fluctuations and whether they correlate to various environmental conditions such as temperature, salinity, and precipitation.Keywords: climate change, smolt timing, phenology, migration timing, salmon, time series analysis, ecology, chemistry, fisheries science
Procedia PDF Downloads 110274 Inflammatory Markers in the Blood and Chronic Periodontitis
Authors: Saimir Heta, Ilma Robo, Nevila Alliu, Tea Meta
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Background: Plasma levels of inflammatory markers are the expression of the infectious wastes of existing periodontitis, as well as of existing inflammation everywhere in the body. Materials and Methods: The study consists of the clinical part of the measurement of inflammatory markers of 23 patients diagnosed with chronic periodontitis and the recording of parental periodontal parameters of patient periodontal status: hemorrhage index and probe values, before and 7-10 days after non-surgical periodontal treatment. Results: The level of fibrinogen drops according to the categorization of disease progression, active and passive, with the biggest % (18%-30%) at the fluctuation 10-20 mg/d. Fluctuations in fibrinogen level according to the age of patients in the range 0-10 mg/dL under 40 years and over 40 years was 13%-26%, in the range 10-20 mg/dL was 26%-22%, in the 20-40 mg/dL was 9%-4%. Conclusions: Non-surgical periodontal treatment significantly reduces the level of non-inflammatory markers in the blood. Oral health significantly reduces the potential source for periodontal bacteria, with the potential of promoting thromboembolism, through interaction between thrombocytes.Keywords: chronic periodontitis, atherosclerosis, risk factor, inflammatory markers
Procedia PDF Downloads 119273 SME Credit Financing, Financial Development and Economic Growth: A VAR Approach to the Nigerian Economy
Authors: A. Bolaji Adesoye, Alimi Olorunfemi
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This paper examines the impact of small and medium-scale enterprises (SMEs) credit financing and financial market development and their shocks on the output growth of Nigeria. The study estimated a VAR model for Nigeria using 1970-2013 annual data series. Unit root tests and cointegration are carried out. The study also explores IRFs and FEVDs in a system that includes output, commercial bank loan to SMEs, domestic credit to private sector by banks, money supply, lending rate and investment. Findings suggest that shocks in commercial bank credit to SMEs has a major impact on the output changes of Nigeria. Money supply shocks also have a sizeable impact on output growth variations amidst other financial instruments. Lastly, neutrality of investment does not hold in Nigeria as it also has impact on output fluctuations.Keywords: SMEs financing, financial development, investment, output, Nigeria
Procedia PDF Downloads 402272 Revealing Insights into the Mechanisms of Biofilm Adhesion on Surfaces in Crude Oil Environments
Authors: Hadjer Didouh, Mohammed Hadj Meliani, Izzaddine Sameut Bouhaik
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This study employs a multidisciplinary approach to investigate the intricate processes governing biofilm-surface interactions. Results indicate that surface properties significantly influence initial microbial attachment, with materials characterized by increased roughness and hydrophobicity promoting enhanced biofilm adhesion. Moreover, the chemical composition of materials plays a crucial role in impacting the development of biofilms. Environmental factors, such as temperature fluctuations and nutrient availability, were identified as key determinants affecting biofilm formation dynamics. Advanced imaging techniques revealed complex three-dimensional biofilm structures, emphasizing microbial communication and cooperation within these networks. These findings offer practical implications for industries operating in crude oil environments, guiding the selection and design of materials to mitigate biofilm-related challenges and enhance operational efficiency in such settings.Keywords: biofilm adhesion, surface properties, crude oil environments, microbial interactions, multidisciplinary investigation
Procedia PDF Downloads 65271 Inhabitants’ Adaptation to the Climate's Evolutions in Cities: a Survey of City Dwellers’ Climatic Experiences’ Construction
Authors: Geraldine Molina, Malou Allagnat
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Entry through meteorological and climatic phenomena, technical knowledge and engineering sciences has long been favored by the research and local public action to analyze the urban climate, develop strategies to reduce its changes and adapt their spaces. However, in their daily practices and sensitive experiences, city dwellers are confronted with the climate and constantly deal with its fluctuations. In this way, these actors develop knowledge, skills and tactics to regulate their comfort and adapt to climatic variations. Therefore, the empirical observation and analysis of these living experiences represent major scientific and social challenges. This contribution proposes to question these relationships of the inhabitants to urban climate. It tackles the construction of inhabitants’ climatic experiences to answer a central question: how do city dwellers’ deal with the urban climate and adapt to its different variations? Indeed, the city raises the question of how populations adapt to different spatial and temporal climatic variations. Local impacts of global climate change are combined with the urban heat island phenomenon and other microclimatic effects, as well as seasonal, daytime and night-time fluctuations. To provide answers, the presentation will be focused on the results of a CNRS research project (Géraldine Molina), part of which is linked to the European project Nature For Cities (H2020, Marjorie Musy, Scientific Director). From a theoretical point of view, the contribution is based on a renewed definition of adaptation centered on the capacity of individuals and social groups, a recently opened entry from a theoretical point of view by social scientists. The research adopts a "radical interdisciplinary" approach to shed light on the links between social dynamics of climate (inhabitants’ perceptions, representations and practices) and physical processes that characterize urban climate. To do so, it relied on a methodological combination of different survey techniques borrowed from the social sciences (geography, anthropology, sociology) and linked to the work, methodologies and results of the engineering sciences. From 2016 to 2019, a survey was carried out in two districts of Lyon whose morphological, micro-climatic and social characteristics differ greatly, namely the 6th arrondissement and the Guillotière district. To explore the construction of climate experiences over the long term by putting it into perspective with the life trajectories of individuals, 70 semi-directive interviews were conducted with inhabitants. In order to also punctually survey the climate experiments as they unfold in a given time and moment, observation and measurement campaigns of physical phenomena and questionnaires have been conducted in public spaces by an interdisciplinary research team1. The contribution at the ICUC 2020 will mainly focus on the presentation of the presentation of the qualitative survey conducted thanks to the inhabitants’ interviews.Keywords: sensitive experiences, ways of life, thermal comfort, radical interdisciplinarity
Procedia PDF Downloads 114270 Long-term Monitoring on Rangelands in Southwest Algeria and Impact of Overgrazing and Droughts on Biodiversity and Soil: Case of the Rogassa Steppe (Wilaya of El Bayadh)
Authors: Slimani Halima
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One of the main problems of degradation of arid steppe rangelands in the southern Mediterranean is the loss of plant diversity and changes in soil properties. During the last decades, these rangelands faced two main driving forces: climate through more or less lasting and recurrent droughts and overgrazing by sheep. In the present work, the preexisting system was an arid steppe with alfa grass (Stipa tenacissima L.) as the dominant plant, which was considered to be the "keystone" species toward the whole ecosystem structure and functioning. Vegetation and soil change was monitored for 45 years along a grazing intensity gradient. Changes in species richness and diversity, in the vegetation and in the soil, enabled to better understand climate fluctuations effects in comparison to overgrazing ones. The aim is to assess the impacts of grazing and climatic variability and change on biodiversity,vegetation and soil over a period of 45 years, based on data from seven reference years.Keywords: biodiversity, desertification, droughts, el bayadh, overgrazing, soil, steppe
Procedia PDF Downloads 93269 Assessing Efficiency Trends in the Indian Sugar Industry
Authors: S. P. Singh
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This paper measures technical and scale efficiencies of 40 Indian sugar companies for the period from 2004-05 to 2013-14. The efficiencies are estimated through input-oriented DEA models using one output variable—value of output (VOP) and five input variables—capital cost (CA), employee cost (EMP), raw material (RW), energy & fuel (E&F) and other manufacturing expenses (OME). The sugar companies are classified into integrated and non-integrated categories to know which one achieves higher level of efficiency. Sources of inefficiency in the industry are identified through decomposing the overall technical efficiency (TE) into pure technical efficiency (PTE) and scale efficiency (SE). The paper also estimates input-reduction targets for relatively inefficient companies and suggests measures to improve their efficiency level. The findings reveal that the TE does not evince any trend rather it shows fluctuations across years, largely due to erratic and cyclical pattern of sugar production. Further, technical inefficiency in the industry seems to be driven more by the managerial inefficiency than the scale inefficiency, which implies that TE can be improved through better conversion of inputs into output.Keywords: DEA, slacks, sugar industry, technical efficiency
Procedia PDF Downloads 314268 A Coupling Study of Public Service Facilities and Land Price Based on Big Data Perspective in Wuxi City
Authors: Sisi Xia, Dezhuan Tao, Junyan Yang, Weiting Xiong
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Under the background of Chinese urbanization changing from incremental development to stock development, the completion of urban public service facilities is essential to urban spatial quality. As public services facilities is a huge and complicated system, clarifying the various types of internal rules associated with the land market price is key to optimizing spatial layout. This paper takes Wuxi City as a representative sample location and establishes the digital analysis platform using urban price and several high-precision big data acquisition methods. On this basis, it analyzes the coupling relationship between different public service categories and land price, summarizing the coupling patterns of urban public facilities distribution and urban land price fluctuations. Finally, the internal mechanism within each of the two elements is explored, providing the reference of the optimum layout of urban planning and public service facilities.Keywords: public service facilities, land price, urban spatial morphology, big data
Procedia PDF Downloads 202267 Comparison of the Logistic and the Gompertz Growth Functions Considering a Periodic Perturbation in the Model Parameters
Authors: Avan Al-Saffar, Eun-Jin Kim
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Both the logistic growth model and the gompertz growth model are used to describe growth processes. Both models driven by perturbations in different cases are investigated using information theory as a useful measure of sustainability and the variability. Specifically, we study the effect of different oscillatory modulations in the system's parameters on the evolution of the system and Probability Density Function (PDF). We show the maintenance of the initial conditions for a long time. We offer Fisher information analysis in positive and/or negative feedback and explain its implications for the sustainability of population dynamics. We also display a finite amplitude solution due to the purely fluctuating growth rate whereas the periodic fluctuations in negative feedback can lead to break down the system's self-regulation with an exponentially growing solution. In the cases tested, the gompertz and logistic systems show similar behaviour in terms of information and sustainability although they develop differently in time.Keywords: dynamical systems, fisher information, probability density function (pdf), sustainability
Procedia PDF Downloads 428266 Analysing the Influence of COVID-19 on Major Agricultural Commodity Prices in South Africa
Authors: D. Mokatsanyane, J. Jansen Van Rensburg
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This paper analyses the influence and impact of COVID-19 on major agricultural commodity prices in South Africa. According to a World Bank report, the agricultural sector in South Africa has been unable to reduce the domestic food crisis that has been occurring over the past years, hence the increased rate of poverty, which is currently at 55.5 percent as of April 2020. Despite the significance of this sector, empirical findings concluded that the agricultural sector now accounts for 1.88 percent of South Africa's gross domestic product (GDP). Suggesting that the agricultural sector's contribution to the economy has diminished. Despite the low contribution to GDP, this primary sector continues to play an essential role in the economy. Over the past years, multiple factors have contributed to the soaring commodities prices, namely, climate shocks, biofuel demand, demand and supply shocks, the exchange rate, speculation in commodity derivative markets, trade restrictions, and economic growth. The COVID-19 outbursts have currently disturbed the supply and demand of staple crops. To address the disruption, the government has exempted the agricultural sector from closure and restrictions on movement. The spread of COVID-19 has caused turmoil all around the world, but mostly in developing countries. According to Statistic South Africa, South Africa's economy decreased by seven percent in 2020. Consequently, this has arguably made the agricultural sector the most affected sector since slumped economic growth negatively impacts food security, trade, farm livelihood, and greenhouse gas emissions. South Africa is sensitive to the fruitfulness of global food chains. Restrictions in trade, reinforced sanitary control systems, and border controls have influenced food availability and prices internationally. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the behavior of agricultural commodity prices pre-and during-COVID to determine the impact of volatility drivers on these crops. Historical secondary data of spot prices for the top five major commodities, namely white maize, yellow maize, wheat, soybeans, and sunflower seeds, are analysed from 01 January 2017 to 1 September 2021. The timeframe was chosen to capture price fluctuations between pre-COVID-19 (01 January 2017 to 23 March 2020) and during-COVID-19 (24 March 2020 to 01 September 2021). The Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) statistical model will be used to measure the influence of price fluctuations. The results reveal that the commodity market has been experiencing volatility at different points. Extremely high volatility is represented during the first quarter of 2020. During this period, there was high uncertainty, and grain prices were very volatile. Despite the influence of COVID-19 on agricultural prices, the demand for these commodities is still existing and decent. During COVID-19, analysis indicates that prices were low and less volatile during the pandemic. The prices and returns of these commodities were low during COVID-19 because of the government's actions to respond to the virus's spread, which collapsed the market demand for food commodities.Keywords: commodities market, commodity prices, generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), Price volatility, SAFEX
Procedia PDF Downloads 166265 Deep Reinforcement Learning for Optimal Decision-Making in Supply Chains
Authors: Nitin Singh, Meng Ling, Talha Ahmed, Tianxia Zhao, Reinier van de Pol
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We propose the use of reinforcement learning (RL) as a viable alternative for optimizing supply chain management, particularly in scenarios with stochasticity in product demands. RL’s adaptability to changing conditions and its demonstrated success in diverse fields of sequential decision-making makes it a promising candidate for addressing supply chain problems. We investigate the impact of demand fluctuations in a multi-product supply chain system and develop RL agents with learned generalizable policies. We provide experimentation details for training RL agents and statistical analysis of the results. We study the generalization ability of RL agents for different demand uncertainty scenarios and observe superior performance compared to the agents trained with fixed demand curves. The proposed methodology has the potential to lead to cost reduction and increased profit for companies dealing with frequent inventory movement between supply and demand nodes.Keywords: inventory management, reinforcement learning, supply chain optimization, uncertainty
Procedia PDF Downloads 102264 Markov Switching of Conditional Variance
Authors: Josip Arneric, Blanka Skrabic Peric
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Forecasting of volatility, i.e. returns fluctuations, has been a topic of interest to portfolio managers, option traders and market makers in order to get higher profits or less risky positions. Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most common used models are GARCH type models. As standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behaviour of the conditional variance, it is difficult the predict volatility using standard GARCH models. Due to practical limitations of these models different approaches have been proposed in the literature, based on Markov switching models. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate because they allow some part of the model to depend on the state of the economy. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility for selected emerging markets.Keywords: emerging markets, Markov switching, GARCH model, transition probabilities
Procedia PDF Downloads 449263 Dynamic Variation in Nano-Scale CMOS SRAM Cells Due to LF/RTS Noise and Threshold Voltage
Authors: M. Fadlallah, G. Ghibaudo, C. G. Theodorou
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The dynamic variation in memory devices such as the Static Random Access Memory can give errors in read or write operations. In this paper, the effect of low-frequency and random telegraph noise on the dynamic variation of one SRAM cell is detailed. The effect on circuit noise, speed, and length of time of processing is examined, using the Supply Read Retention Voltage and the Read Static Noise Margin. New test run methods are also developed. The obtained results simulation shows the importance of noise caused by dynamic variation, and the impact of Random Telegraph noise on SRAM variability is examined by evaluating the statistical distributions of Random Telegraph noise amplitude in the pull-up, pull-down. The threshold voltage mismatch between neighboring cell transistors due to intrinsic fluctuations typically contributes to larger reductions in static noise margin. Also the contribution of each of the SRAM transistor to total dynamic variation has been identified.Keywords: low-frequency noise, random telegraph noise, dynamic variation, SRRV
Procedia PDF Downloads 168262 Preference for Housing Services and Rational House Price Bubbles
Authors: Stefanie Jeanette Huber
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This paper explores the relevance and implications of preferences for housing services on house price fluctuations through the lens of an overlapping generation’s model. The model implies that an economy whose agents have lower preferences for housing services is characterized with lower expenditure shares on housing services and will tend to experience more frequent and more volatile housing bubbles. These model predictions are tested empirically in the companion paper Housing Booms and Busts - Convergences and Divergences across OECD countries. Between 1970 - 2013, countries who spend less on housing services as a share of total income experienced significantly more housing cycles and the associated housing boom-bust cycles were more violent. Finally, the model is used to study the impact of rental subsidies and help-to-buy schemes on rational housing bubbles. Rental subsidies are found to contribute to the control of housing bubbles, whereas help-to- buy scheme makes the economy more bubble-prone.Keywords: housing bubbles, housing booms and busts, preference for housing services, expenditure shares for housing services, rental and purchase subsidies
Procedia PDF Downloads 289261 Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Morocco
Authors: Abdelghani Qadem, Zouhair Qadem
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Like the countries of the Mediterranean region, Morocco is likely to be at high risk of water scarcity due to climate change. Morocco, which is the subject of this study, is located between two climatic zones, temperate in the North tropical in the South, Morocco is distinguished by four types of climate: humid, sub-humid, semi-arid, and arid. The last decades attest to the progression of the semi-arid climate towards the North of the country. The IPCC projections, which have been made in this direction, show that there is an overall downward trend in rainfall contributions varying on average between 10% and 30% depending on the scenario selected and the region considered, they also show an upward trend in average annual temperatures. These trends will have a real impact on water resources, which will result in a drop in the volume of water resources varying between 7.6% and 40.6%. The present study aims to describe the meteorological conditions of Morocco in order to answer the problem dealing with the effect of climatic fluctuations on water resources and to assess water vulnerability in the face of climate change.Keywords: morocco, climate change, water resources, impact, water scarcity
Procedia PDF Downloads 77260 Dimensionality and Superconducting Parameters of YBa2Cu3O7 Foams
Authors: Michael Koblischka, Anjela Koblischka-Veneva, XianLin Zeng, Essia Hannachi, Yassine Slimani
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Superconducting foams of YBa2Cu3O7 (abbreviated Y-123) were produced using the infiltration growth (IG) technique from Y2BaCuO5 (Y-211) foams. The samples were investigated by SEM (scanning electron microscopy) and electrical resistivity measurements. SEM observations indicated the specific microstructure of the foam struts with numerous tiny Y-211 particles (50-100 nm diameter) embedded in channel-like structures between the Y-123 grains. The investigation of the excess conductivity of different prepared composites was analyzed using Aslamazov-Larkin (AL) model. The investigated samples comprised of five distinct fluctuation regimes, namely short-wave (SWF), one-dimensional (1D), two-dimensional (2D), three-dimensional (3D), and critical (CR) fluctuations regimes. The coherence length along the c-axis at zero-temperature (ξc(0)), lower and upper critical magnetic fields (Bc1 and Bc2), critical current density (Jc) and numerous other superconducting parameters were estimated from the data. The analysis reveals that the presence of the tiny Y-211 particles alters the excess conductivity and the fluctuation behavior observed in standard YBCO samples.Keywords: Excess conductivity, Foam, Microstructure, Superconductor YBa2Cu3Oy
Procedia PDF Downloads 162259 Observational Study Reveals Inverse Relationship: Rising PM₂.₅ Concentrations Linked to Decreasing Muon Flux
Authors: Yashas Mattur, Jensen Coonradt
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Muon flux, the rate of muons reaching Earth from the atmosphere, is impacted by various factors such as air pressure, temperature, and humidity. However, the influence of concentrations of PM₂.₅ (particulate matter with diameters 2.5 mm or smaller) on muon detection rates remains unexplored. During the summer of 2023, smoke from Canadian wildfires (containing significant amounts of particulate matter) blew over regions in the Northern US, introducing huge fluctuations in PM₂.₅ concentrations, thus inspiring our experiment to investigate the correlation of PM₂.₅ concentrations and muon rates. To investigate this correlation, muon collision rates were measured and analyzed alongside PM₂.₅ concentration data over the periods of both light and heavy smoke. Other confounding variables, including temperature, humidity, and atmospheric pressure, were also considered. The results reveal a statistically significant inverse correlation between muon flux and PM₂.₅ concentrations, indicating that particulate matter has an impact on the rate of muons reaching the earth’s surface.Keywords: Muon Flux, atmospheric effects on muons, PM₂.₅, airborne particulate matter
Procedia PDF Downloads 67