Search results for: fundamental models
8222 Building an Opinion Dynamics Model from Experimental Data
Authors: Dino Carpentras, Paul J. Maher, Caoimhe O'Reilly, Michael Quayle
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Opinion dynamics is a sub-field of agent-based modeling that focuses on people’s opinions and their evolutions over time. Despite the rapid increase in the number of publications in this field, it is still not clear how to apply these models to real-world scenarios. Indeed, there is no agreement on how people update their opinion while interacting. Furthermore, it is not clear if different topics will show the same dynamics (e.g., more polarized topics may behave differently). These problems are mostly due to the lack of experimental validation of the models. Some previous studies started bridging this gap in the literature by directly measuring people’s opinions before and after the interaction. However, these experiments force people to express their opinion as a number instead of using natural language (and then, eventually, encoding it as numbers). This is not the way people normally interact, and it may strongly alter the measured dynamics. Another limitation of these studies is that they usually average all the topics together, without checking if different topics may show different dynamics. In our work, we collected data from 200 participants on 5 unpolarized topics. Participants expressed their opinions in natural language (“agree” or “disagree”). We also measured the certainty of their answer, expressed as a number between 1 and 10. However, this value was not shown to other participants to keep the interaction based on natural language. We then showed the opinion (and not the certainty) of another participant and, after a distraction task, we repeated the measurement. To make the data compatible with opinion dynamics models, we multiplied opinion and certainty to obtain a new parameter (here called “continuous opinion”) ranging from -10 to +10 (using agree=1 and disagree=-1). We firstly checked the 5 topics individually, finding that all of them behaved in a similar way despite having different initial opinions distributions. This suggested that the same model could be applied for different unpolarized topics. We also observed that people tend to maintain similar levels of certainty, even when they changed their opinion. This is a strong violation of what is suggested from common models, where people starting at, for example, +8, will first move towards 0 instead of directly jumping to -8. We also observed social influence, meaning that people exposed with “agree” were more likely to move to higher levels of continuous opinion, while people exposed with “disagree” were more likely to move to lower levels. However, we also observed that the effect of influence was smaller than the effect of random fluctuations. Also, this configuration is different from standard models, where noise, when present, is usually much smaller than the effect of social influence. Starting from this, we built an opinion dynamics model that explains more than 80% of data variance. This model was also able to show the natural conversion of polarization from unpolarized states. This experimental approach offers a new way to build models grounded on experimental data. Furthermore, the model offers new insight into the fundamental terms of opinion dynamics models.Keywords: experimental validation, micro-dynamics rule, opinion dynamics, update rule
Procedia PDF Downloads 1098221 Evaluation of Research in the Field of Energy Efficiency and MCA Methods Using Publications Databases
Authors: Juan Sepúlveda
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Energy is a fundamental component in sustainability, the access and use of this resource is related with economic growth, social improvements, and environmental impacts. In this sense, energy efficiency has been studied as a factor that enhances the positive impacts of energy in communities; however, the implementation of efficiency requires strong policy and strategies that usually rely on individual measures focused in independent dimensions. In this paper, the problem of energy efficiency as a multi-objective problem is studied, using scientometric analysis to discover trends and patterns that allow to identify the main variables and study approximations related with a further development of models to integrate energy efficiency and MCA into policy making for small communities.Keywords: energy efficiency, MCA, scientometric, trends
Procedia PDF Downloads 3708220 Dynamic-cognition of Strategic Mineral Commodities; An Empirical Assessment
Authors: Carlos Tapia Cortez, Serkan Saydam, Jeff Coulton, Claude Sammut
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Strategic mineral commodities (SMC) both energetic and metals have long been fundamental for human beings. There is a strong and long-run relation between the mineral resources industry and society's evolution, with the provision of primary raw materials, becoming one of the most significant drivers of economic growth. Due to mineral resources’ relevance for the entire economy and society, an understanding of the SMC market behaviour to simulate price fluctuations has become crucial for governments and firms. For any human activity, SMC price fluctuations are affected by economic, geopolitical, environmental, technological and psychological issues, where cognition has a major role. Cognition is defined as the capacity to store information in memory, processing and decision making for problem-solving or human adaptation. Thus, it has a significant role in those systems that exhibit dynamic equilibrium through time, such as economic growth. Cognition allows not only understanding past behaviours and trends in SCM markets but also supports future expectations of demand/supply levels and prices, although speculations are unavoidable. Technological developments may also be defined as a cognitive system. Since the Industrial Revolution, technological developments have had a significant influence on SMC production costs and prices, likewise allowing co-integration between commodities and market locations. It suggests a close relation between structural breaks, technology and prices evolution. SCM prices forecasting have been commonly addressed by econometrics and Gaussian-probabilistic models. Econometrics models may incorporate the relationship between variables; however, they are statics that leads to an incomplete approach of prices evolution through time. Gaussian-probabilistic models may evolve through time; however, price fluctuations are addressed by the assumption of random behaviour and normal distribution which seems to be far from the real behaviour of both market and prices. Random fluctuation ignores the evolution of market events and the technical and temporal relation between variables, giving the illusion of controlled future events. Normal distribution underestimates price fluctuations by using restricted ranges, curtailing decisions making into a pre-established space. A proper understanding of SMC's price dynamics taking into account the historical-cognitive relation between economic, technological and psychological factors over time is fundamental in attempting to simulate prices. The aim of this paper is to discuss the SMC market cognition hypothesis and empirically demonstrate its dynamic-cognitive capacity. Three of the largest and traded SMC's: oil, copper and gold, will be assessed to examine the economic, technological and psychological cognition respectively.Keywords: commodity price simulation, commodity price uncertainties, dynamic-cognition, dynamic systems
Procedia PDF Downloads 4608219 Protection System Mis-operations: Fundamental Concepts and Learning from Indian Power Sector
Authors: Pankaj Kumar Jha, Mahendra Singh Hada, Brijendra Singh
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Protection system is an essential feature of the electrical system which helps in detection and removal of faults. Protection system consists of many subsystems like relays, circuit breakers, instrument transformers, auxiliary DC system, auxiliary relays etc. Although the fundamental protective and relay operating concepts are similar throughout the world, there are very significant differences in their implementation. These differences arise through different traditions, operating philosophies, experiences and national standards. Protection system mis-operation due to problem in one or more of its subsystem or inadequate knowledge of numerical relay settings and configuration are very common throughout the world. Protection system mis-operation leads to unstable and unreliable grid operation. In this paper we will discuss about the fundamental concepts of protective relaying and the reasons for protection system mis-operation due to one or more of its subsystems. Many real-world case studies of protection system mis-operation from Indian power sector are discussed in detail in this paper.Keywords: auxiliary trip relays, bus zone, check zone, CT saturation, dead zone protection, DC ground faults, DMT, DR, end fault protection, instrument transformer, SOTF, STUB
Procedia PDF Downloads 768218 A Comparison between Artificial Neural Network Prediction Models for Coronal Hole Related High Speed Streams
Authors: Rehab Abdulmajed, Amr Hamada, Ahmed Elsaid, Hisashi Hayakawa, Ayman Mahrous
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Solar emissions have a high impact on the Earth’s magnetic field, and the prediction of solar events is of high interest. Various techniques have been used in the prediction of solar wind using mathematical models, MHD models, and neural network (NN) models. This study investigates the coronal hole (CH) derived high-speed streams (HSSs) and their correlation to the CH area and create a neural network model to predict the HSSs. Two different algorithms were used to compare different models to find a model that best simulates the HSSs. A dataset of CH synoptic maps through Carrington rotations 1601 to 2185 along with Omni-data set solar wind speed averaged over the Carrington rotations is used, which covers Solar cycles (sc) 21, 22, 23, and most of 24.Keywords: artificial neural network, coronal hole area, feed-forward neural network models, solar high speed streams
Procedia PDF Downloads 888217 Superiority of High Frequency Based Volatility Models: Empirical Evidence from an Emerging Market
Authors: Sibel Celik, Hüseyin Ergin
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The paper aims to find the best volatility forecasting model for stock markets in Turkey. For this purpose, we compare performance of different volatility models-both traditional GARCH model and high frequency based volatility models- and conclude that both in pre-crisis and crisis period, the performance of high frequency based volatility models are better than traditional GARCH model. The findings of paper are important for policy makers, financial institutions and investors.Keywords: volatility, GARCH model, realized volatility, high frequency data
Procedia PDF Downloads 4868216 Soil-Structure Interaction Models for the Reinforced Foundation System – A State-of-the-Art Review
Authors: Ashwini V. Chavan, Sukhanand S. Bhosale
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Challenges of weak soil subgrade are often resolved either by stabilization or reinforcing it. However, it is also practiced to reinforce the granular fill to improve the load-settlement behavior of over weak soil strata. The inclusion of reinforcement in the engineered granular fill provided a new impetus for the development of enhanced Soil-Structure Interaction (SSI) models, also known as mechanical foundation models or lumped parameter models. Several researchers have been working in this direction to understand the mechanism of granular fill-reinforcement interaction and the response of weak soil under the application of load. These models have been developed by extending available SSI models such as the Winkler Model, Pasternak Model, Hetenyi Model, Kerr Model etc., and are helpful to visualize the load-settlement behavior of a physical system through 1-D and 2-D analysis considering beam and plate resting on the foundation respectively. Based on the literature survey, these models are categorized as ‘Reinforced Pasternak Model,’ ‘Double Beam Model,’ ‘Reinforced Timoshenko Beam Model,’ and ‘Reinforced Kerr Model.’ The present work reviews the past 30+ years of research in the field of SSI models for reinforced foundation systems, presenting the conceptual development of these models systematically and discussing their limitations. Special efforts are taken to tabulate the parameters and their significance in the load-settlement analysis, which may be helpful in future studies for the comparison and enhancement of results and findings of physical models.Keywords: geosynthetics, mathematical modeling, reinforced foundation, soil-structure interaction, ground improvement, soft soil
Procedia PDF Downloads 1238215 Patients’ Rights: An Enquiry into the Activities of Local Psychiatric Centers Managed by Muslims in South-West Nigeria
Authors: Shaykh-Luqman Jimoh
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In Nigeria, aside the eight Government hospitals designated Psychiatric hospitals, there are also many local psychiatric centers managed by muslims and non-muslim individuals. These centers have been heavily criticized for human right abuses. This study is an inquiry into the truth or otherwise of the criticism. The study focuses on the activities of local centers managed by muslim individuals in South-West Nigeria with a view to determining the extent they uphold or violate their patients’ fundamental human rights as guaranteed by Islam. Information about the activities of the centers were collected through oral interviews. Both descriptive and analytical methods were used in the study. The study revealed that while there are some activities of the local centers managed by muslims in the study area that could be regarded as outright violation of patients’ fundamental human rights, some others, in view of the rationale behind them, may not necessarily constitute outright violation of the patients’ fundamental human rights as hitherto painted except where excesses are committed. The study therefore, using Islamic paradigm, suggests general measures that could be taken to improve on the activities of the centers.Keywords: local psychiatric centers, muslim exorcists, patients’ rights, South-West Nigeria
Procedia PDF Downloads 5028214 A Game-Theory-Based Price-Optimization Algorithm for the Simulation of Markets Using Agent-Based Modelling
Authors: Juan Manuel Sanchez-Cartas, Gonzalo Leon
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A price competition algorithm for ABMs based on game theory principles is proposed to deal with the simulation of theoretical market models. The algorithm is applied to the classical Hotelling’s model and to a two-sided market model to show it leads to the optimal behavior predicted by theoretical models. However, when theoretical models fail to predict the equilibrium, the algorithm is capable of reaching a feasible outcome. Results highlight that the algorithm can be implemented in other simulation models to guarantee rational users and endogenous optimal behaviors. Also, it can be applied as a tool of verification given that is theoretically based.Keywords: agent-based models, algorithmic game theory, multi-sided markets, price optimization
Procedia PDF Downloads 4558213 The Use of Stochastic Gradient Boosting Method for Multi-Model Combination of Rainfall-Runoff Models
Authors: Phanida Phukoetphim, Asaad Y. Shamseldin
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In this study, the novel Stochastic Gradient Boosting (SGB) combination method is addressed for producing daily river flows from four different rain-runoff models of Ohinemuri catchment, New Zealand. The selected rainfall-runoff models are two empirical black-box models: linear perturbation model and linear varying gain factor model, two conceptual models: soil moisture accounting and routing model and Nedbør-Afrstrømnings model. In this study, the simple average combination method and the weighted average combination method were used as a benchmark for comparing the results of the novel SGB combination method. The models and combination results are evaluated using statistical and graphical criteria. Overall results of this study show that the use of combination technique can certainly improve the simulated river flows of four selected models for Ohinemuri catchment, New Zealand. The results also indicate that the novel SGB combination method is capable of accurate prediction when used in a combination method of the simulated river flows in New Zealand.Keywords: multi-model combination, rainfall-runoff modeling, stochastic gradient boosting, bioinformatics
Procedia PDF Downloads 3398212 An Investigation on Hybrid Composite Drive Shaft for Automotive Industry
Authors: Gizem Arslan Özgen, Kutay Yücetürk, Metin Tanoğlu, Engin Aktaş
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Power transmitted from the engine to the final drive where useful work is applied through a system consisting of a gearbox, clutch, drive shaft and a differential in the rear-wheel-drive automobiles. It is well-known that the steel drive shaft is usually manufactured in two pieces to increase the fundamental bending natural frequency to ensure safe operation conditions. In this work, hybrid one-piece propeller shafts composed of carbon/epoxy and glass/epoxy composites have been designed for a rear wheel drive automobile satisfying three design specifications, such as static torque transmission capability, torsional buckling and the fundamental natural bending frequency. Hybridization of carbon and glass fibers is being studied to optimize the cost/performance requirements. Composites shaft materials with various fiber orientation angles and stacking sequences are being fabricated and analyzed using finite element analysis (FEA).Keywords: composite propeller shaft, hybridization, epoxy matrix, static torque transmission capability, torsional buckling strength, fundamental natural bending frequency.
Procedia PDF Downloads 2708211 Judicial Activism and the Supreme Court of India
Authors: Shreeya Umashankar
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The Supreme Court of India has emerged as the most powerful organ of State and amongst the foremost constitutional courts in the world through the instrument of Public Interest Litigation (PIL), the exercise of writ jurisdiction and the expansive interpretation of fundamental rights guaranteed by the Constitution of India. Judicial activism impinging on every facet of governance has become the norm in recent times. This paper traces the evolution of judicial activism since Independence through pronouncements of the Supreme Court. It brings out distinct phases in this evolution– the initial phase of judicial restraint, the first phase of an activist judiciary where the Supreme Court primarily was concerned with protection of fundamental rights and humane treatment of citizens; the second phase where the Supreme Court took keen interest in preservation and protection of the environment; the third phase where the Supreme Court extended its reach into the socio-economic arena and the fourth phase when issues of transparency and probity in governance led to interventions by the Supreme Court. The paper illustrates through judgements of the Supreme Court that the instrument of the PIL and the exercise of writ jurisdiction by the Supreme Court go beyond the traditional postulates of judicial processes and political theory on separation of powers between the organs of State.Keywords: fundamental rights, judicial activism, public interest litigation, Supreme Court of India
Procedia PDF Downloads 6248210 Unsupervised Reciter Recognition Using Gaussian Mixture Models
Authors: Ahmad Alwosheel, Ahmed Alqaraawi
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This work proposes an unsupervised text-independent probabilistic approach to recognize Quran reciter voice. It is an accurate approach that works on real time applications. This approach does not require a prior information about reciter models. It has two phases, where in the training phase the reciters' acoustical features are modeled using Gaussian Mixture Models, while in the testing phase, unlabeled reciter's acoustical features are examined among GMM models. Using this approach, a high accuracy results are achieved with efficient computation time process.Keywords: Quran, speaker recognition, reciter recognition, Gaussian Mixture Model
Procedia PDF Downloads 3808209 Predicting the Diagnosis of Alzheimer’s Disease: Development and Validation of Machine Learning Models
Authors: Jay L. Fu
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Patients with Alzheimer's disease progressively lose their memory and thinking skills and, eventually, the ability to carry out simple daily tasks. The disease is irreversible, but early detection and treatment can slow down the disease progression. In this research, publicly available MRI data and demographic data from 373 MRI imaging sessions were utilized to build models to predict dementia. Various machine learning models, including logistic regression, k-nearest neighbor, support vector machine, random forest, and neural network, were developed. Data were divided into training and testing sets, where training sets were used to build the predictive model, and testing sets were used to assess the accuracy of prediction. Key risk factors were identified, and various models were compared to come forward with the best prediction model. Among these models, the random forest model appeared to be the best model with an accuracy of 90.34%. MMSE, nWBV, and gender were the three most important contributing factors to the detection of Alzheimer’s. Among all the models used, the percent in which at least 4 of the 5 models shared the same diagnosis for a testing input was 90.42%. These machine learning models allow early detection of Alzheimer’s with good accuracy, which ultimately leads to early treatment of these patients.Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, clinical diagnosis, magnetic resonance imaging, machine learning prediction
Procedia PDF Downloads 1438208 Fuzzy Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis in Business Models' Study
Authors: K. Debkowska
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The aim of this article is presenting the possibilities of using Fuzzy Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) in researches concerning business models of enterprises. FsQCA is a bridge between quantitative and qualitative researches. It's potential can be used in analysis and evaluation of business models. The article presents the results of a study conducted on the basis of enterprises belonging to different sectors: transport and logistics, industry, building construction, and trade. The enterprises have been researched taking into account the components of business models and the financial condition of companies. Business models are areas of complex and heterogeneous nature. The use of fsQCA has enabled to answer the following question: which components of a business model and in which configuration influence better financial condition of enterprises. The analysis has been performed separately for particular sectors. This enabled to compare the combinations of business models' components which actively influence the financial condition of enterprises in analyzed sectors. The following components of business models were analyzed for the purposes of the study: Key Partners, Key Activities, Key Resources, Value Proposition, Channels, Cost Structure, Revenue Streams, Customer Segment and Customer Relationships. These components of the study constituted the variables shaping the financial results of enterprises. The results of the study lead us to believe that fsQCA can help in analyzing and evaluating a business model, which is important in terms of making a business decision about the business model used or its change. In addition, results obtained by fsQCA can be applied by all stakeholders connected with the company.Keywords: business models, components of business models, data analysis, fsQCA
Procedia PDF Downloads 1708207 Formal Models of Sanitary Inspections Teams Activities
Authors: Tadeusz Nowicki, Radosław Pytlak, Robert Waszkowski, Jerzy Bertrandt, Anna Kłos
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This paper presents methods for formal modeling of activities in the area of sanitary inspectors outbreak of food-borne diseases. The models allow you to measure the characteristics of the activities of sanitary inspection and as a result allow improving the performance of sanitary services and thus food security.Keywords: food-borne disease, epidemic, sanitary inspection, mathematical models
Procedia PDF Downloads 3028206 Evaluation of Parameters of Subject Models and Their Mutual Effects
Authors: A. G. Kovalenko, Y. N. Amirgaliyev, A. U. Kalizhanova, L. S. Balgabayeva, A. H. Kozbakova, Z. S. Aitkulov
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It is known that statistical information on operation of the compound multisite system is often far from the description of actual state of the system and does not allow drawing any conclusions about the correctness of its operation. For example, from the world practice of operation of systems of water supply, water disposal, it is known that total measurements at consumers and at suppliers differ between 40-60%. It is connected with mathematical measure of inaccuracy as well as ineffective running of corresponding systems. Analysis of widely-distributed systems is more difficult, in which subjects, which are self-maintained in decision-making, carry out economic interaction in production, act of purchase and sale, resale and consumption. This work analyzed mathematical models of sellers, consumers, arbitragers and the models of their interaction in the provision of dispersed single-product market of perfect competition. On the basis of these models, the methods, allowing estimation of every subject’s operating options and systems as a whole are given.Keywords: dispersed systems, models, hydraulic network, algorithms
Procedia PDF Downloads 2848205 Identification of Classes of Bilinear Time Series Models
Authors: Anthony Usoro
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In this paper, two classes of bilinear time series model are obtained under certain conditions from the general bilinear autoregressive moving average model. Bilinear Autoregressive (BAR) and Bilinear Moving Average (BMA) Models have been identified. From the general bilinear model, BAR and BMA models have been proved to exist for q = Q = 0, => j = 0, and p = P = 0, => i = 0 respectively. These models are found useful in modelling most of the economic and financial data.Keywords: autoregressive model, bilinear autoregressive model, bilinear moving average model, moving average model
Procedia PDF Downloads 4078204 Development of a Human Vibration Model Considering Muscles and Stiffness of Intervertebral Discs
Authors: Young Nam Jo, Moon Jeong Kang, Hong Hee Yoo
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Most human vibration models have been modeled as a multibody system consisting of some rigid bodies and spring-dampers. These models are developed for certain posture and conditions. So, the models cannot be used in vibration analysis in various posture and conditions. The purpose of this study is to develop a human vibration model that represent human vibration characteristics under various conditions by employing a musculoskeletal model. To do this, the human vibration model is developed based on biomechanical models. In addition, muscle models are employed instead of spring-dampers. Activations of muscles are controlled by PD controller to maintain body posture under vertical vibration is applied. Each gain value of the controller is obtained to minimize the difference of apparent mass and acceleration transmissibility between experim ent and analysis by using an optimization method.Keywords: human vibration analysis, hill type muscle model, PD control, whole-body vibration
Procedia PDF Downloads 4488203 Circuit Models for Conducted Susceptibility Analyses of Multiconductor Shielded Cables
Authors: Saih Mohamed, Rouijaa Hicham, Ghammaz Abdelilah
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This paper presents circuit models to analyze the conducted susceptibility of multiconductor shielded cables in frequency domains using Branin’s method, which is referred to as the method of characteristics. These models, Which can be used directly in the time and frequency domains, take into account the presence of both the transfer impedance and admittance. The conducted susceptibility is studied by using an injection current on the cable shield as the source. Two examples are studied, a coaxial shielded cable and shielded cables with two parallel wires (i.e., twinax cables). This shield has an asymmetry (one slot on the side). Results obtained by these models are in good agreement with those obtained by other methods.Keywords: circuit models, multiconductor shielded cables, Branin’s method, coaxial shielded cable, twinax cables
Procedia PDF Downloads 5168202 Structural Optimization of Shell and Arched Structures
Authors: Mitchell Gohnert, Ryan Bradley
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This paper reviews some fundamental concepts of structural optimization, which are based on the type of materials used in construction and the shape of the structure. The first step in structural optimization is to break down all internal forces in a structure into fundamental stresses, which are tensions and compressions. Knowing the stress patterns directs our selection of structural shapes and the most appropriate type of construction material. In our selection of materials, it is essential to understand all construction materials have flaws, or micro-cracks, which reduce the capacity of the material, especially when subjected to tensions. Because of material defects, many construction materials perform significantly better when subjected to compressive forces. Structures are also more efficient if bending moments are eliminated. Bending stresses produce high peak stresses at each face of the member, and therefore, substantially more material is required to resist bending. The shape of the structure also has a profound effect on stress levels. Stress may be reduced dramatically by simply changing the shape. Catenary, triangular and linear shapes are the fundamental structural forms to achieve optimal stress flow. If the natural flow of stress matches the shape of the structures, the most optimal shape is determined.Keywords: arches, economy of stresses, material strength, optimization, shells
Procedia PDF Downloads 1168201 On the Evaluation of Different Turbulence Models through the Displacement of Oil-Water Flow in Porous Media
Authors: Sidique Gawusu, Xiaobing Zhang
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Turbulence models play a significant role in all computational fluid dynamics based modelling approaches. There is, however, no general turbulence model suitable for all flow scenarios. Therefore, a successful numerical modelling approach is only achievable if a more appropriate closure model is used. This paper evaluates different turbulence models in numerical modelling of oil-water flow within the Eulerian-Eulerian approach. A comparison among the obtained numerical results and published benchmark data showed reasonable agreement. The domain was meshed using structured mesh, and grid test was performed to ascertain grid independence. The evaluation of the models was made through analysis of velocity and pressure profiles across the domain. The models were tested for their suitability to accurately obtain a scalable and precise numerical experience. As a result, it is found that all the models except Standard-ω provide comparable results. The study also revealed new insights on flow in porous media, specifically oil reservoirs.Keywords: turbulence modelling, simulation, multi-phase flows, water-flooding, heavy oil
Procedia PDF Downloads 2798200 Modelling High-Frequency Crude Oil Dynamics Using Affine and Non-Affine Jump-Diffusion Models
Authors: Katja Ignatieva, Patrick Wong
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We investigated the dynamics of high frequency energy prices, including crude oil and electricity prices. The returns of underlying quantities are modelled using various parametric models such as stochastic framework with jumps and stochastic volatility (SVCJ) as well as non-parametric alternatives, which are purely data driven and do not require specification of the drift or the diffusion coefficient function. Using different statistical criteria, we investigate the performance of considered parametric and nonparametric models in their ability to forecast price series and volatilities. Our models incorporate possible seasonalities in the underlying dynamics and utilise advanced estimation techniques for the dynamics of energy prices.Keywords: stochastic volatility, affine jump-diffusion models, high frequency data, model specification, markov chain monte carlo
Procedia PDF Downloads 1048199 Investigating the Invalidity of the Law of Energy Conservation Based on Waves Interference Phenomenon Inside a Ringed Waveguide
Authors: M. Yusefzad
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Law of energy conservation is one of the fundamental laws of physics. Energy is conserved, and the total amount of energy is constant. It can be transferred from one object to another and changed from one state to another. However, in the case of wave interference, this law faces important contradictions. Based on the presented mathematical relationship in this paper, it seems that validity of this law depends on the path of energy wave, like light, in which it is located. In this paper, by using some fundamental concepts in physics like the constancy of the electromagnetic wave speed in a specific media and wave theory of light, it will be shown that law of energy conservation is not valid in every condition and in some circumstances, it is possible to increase energy of a system with a determined amount of energy without any input.Keywords: power, law of energy conservation, electromagnetic wave, interference, Maxwell’s equations
Procedia PDF Downloads 2648198 Parametric Modeling for Survival Data with Competing Risks Using the Generalized Gompertz Distribution
Authors: Noora Al-Shanfari, M. Mazharul Islam
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The cumulative incidence function (CIF) is a fundamental approach for analyzing survival data in the presence of competing risks, which estimates the marginal probability for each competing event. Parametric modeling of CIF has the advantage of fitting various shapes of CIF and estimates the impact of covariates with maximum efficiency. To calculate the total CIF's covariate influence using a parametric model., it is essential to parametrize the baseline of the CIF. As the CIF is an improper function by nature, it is necessary to utilize an improper distribution when applying parametric models. The Gompertz distribution, which is an improper distribution, is limited in its applicability as it only accounts for monotone hazard shapes. The generalized Gompertz distribution, however, can adapt to a wider range of hazard shapes, including unimodal, bathtub, and monotonic increasing or decreasing hazard shapes. In this paper, the generalized Gompertz distribution is used to parametrize the baseline of the CIF, and the parameters of the proposed model are estimated using the maximum likelihood approach. The proposed model is compared with the existing Gompertz model using the Akaike information criterion. Appropriate statistical test procedures and model-fitting criteria will be used to test the adequacy of the model. Both models are applied to the ‘colon’ dataset, which is available in the “biostat3” package in R.Keywords: competing risks, cumulative incidence function, improper distribution, parametric modeling, survival analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 1038197 Some Fundamental Physical Properties of BiGaO₃ Cubic Perovskite
Authors: B. Gueridi, T. Chihi, M. Fatmi, A. Faci
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Some fundamental physical properties of BiGaO₃ were investigated under pressure and temperature effect using generalized gradient approximation and local density approximation approaches. The effect of orientation on Debye temperature and sound waves velocities were estimated from elastic constants. The value of the bulk modulus of BiGaO₃ is a sign of its high hardness because it is linked to an isotropic deformation. BiGaO₃ is a semiconductor and ductile material with covalent bonding (Ga–O), and the Bi-O bonding is ionic. The optical transitions were observed when electrons pass from the top of the valence band (O-2p) to the bottom of the conduction band (Ga-4p or Bi-6p). The thermodynamic parameters are determined in temperature and pressure ranging from 0 to 1800 K and 0 to 50 GPa.Keywords: BiGaO₃ perovskite, optical absorption, first principle, band structure
Procedia PDF Downloads 1278196 Building a Blockchain-based Internet of Things
Authors: Rob van den Dam
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Today’s Internet of Things (IoT) comprises more than a billion intelligent devices, connected via wired/wireless communications. The expected proliferation of hundreds of billions more places us at the threshold of a transformation sweeping across the communications industry. Yet, we found that the IoT architecture and solutions that currently work for billions of devices won’t necessarily scale to tomorrow’s hundreds of billions of devices because of high cost, lack of privacy, not future-proof, lack of functional value and broken business models. As the IoT scales exponentially, decentralized networks have the potential to reduce infrastructure and maintenance costs to manufacturers. Decentralization also promises increased robustness by removing single points of failure that could exist in traditional centralized networks. By shifting the power in the network from the center to the edges, devices gain greater autonomy and can become points of transactions and economic value creation for owners and users. To validate the underlying technology vision, IBM jointly developed with Samsung Electronics the autonomous decentralized peer-to- peer proof-of-concept (PoC). The primary objective of this PoC was to establish a foundation on which to demonstrate several capabilities that are fundamental to building a decentralized IoT. Though many commercial systems in the future will exist as hybrid centralized-decentralized models, the PoC demonstrated a fully distributed proof. The PoC (a) validated the future vision for decentralized systems to extensively augment today’s centralized solutions, (b) demonstrated foundational IoT tasks without the use of centralized control, (c) proved that empowered devices can engage autonomously in marketplace transactions. The PoC opens the door for the communications and electronics industry to further explore the challenges and opportunities of potential hybrid models that can address the complexity and variety of requirements posed by the internet that continues to scale. Contents: (a) The new approach for an IoT that will be secure and scalable, (b) The three foundational technologies that are key for the future IoT, (c) The related business models and user experiences, (d) How such an IoT will create an 'Economy of Things', (e) The role of users, devices, and industries in the IoT future, (f) The winners in the IoT economy.Keywords: IoT, internet, wired, wireless
Procedia PDF Downloads 3368195 The Future of Insurance: P2P Innovation versus Traditional Business Model
Authors: Ivan Sosa Gomez
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Digitalization has impacted the entire insurance value chain, and the growing movement towards P2P platforms and the collaborative economy is also beginning to have a significant impact. P2P insurance is defined as innovation, enabling policyholders to pool their capital, self-organize, and self-manage their own insurance. In this context, new InsurTech start-ups are emerging as peer-to-peer (P2P) providers, based on a model that differs from traditional insurance. As a result, although P2P platforms do not change the fundamental basis of insurance, they do enable potentially more efficient business models to be established in terms of ensuring the coverage of risk. It is therefore relevant to determine whether p2p innovation can have substantial effects on the future of the insurance sector. For this purpose, it is considered necessary to develop P2P innovation from a business perspective, as well as to build a comparison between a traditional model and a P2P model from an actuarial perspective. Objectives: The objectives are (1) to represent P2P innovation in the business model compared to the traditional insurance model and (2) to establish a comparison between a traditional model and a P2P model from an actuarial perspective. Methodology: The research design is defined as action research in terms of understanding and solving the problems of a collectivity linked to an environment, applying theory and best practices according to the approach. For this purpose, the study is carried out through the participatory variant, which involves the collaboration of the participants, given that in this design, participants are considered experts. For this purpose, prolonged immersion in the field is carried out as the main instrument for data collection. Finally, an actuarial model is developed relating to the calculation of premiums that allows for the establishment of projections of future scenarios and the generation of conclusions between the two models. Main Contributions: From an actuarial and business perspective, we aim to contribute by developing a comparison of the two models in the coverage of risk in order to determine whether P2P innovation can have substantial effects on the future of the insurance sector.Keywords: Insurtech, innovation, business model, P2P, insurance
Procedia PDF Downloads 928194 Study of Adsorption Isotherm Models on Rare Earth Elements Biosorption for Separation Purposes
Authors: Nice Vasconcelos Coimbra, Fábio dos Santos Gonçalves, Marisa Nascimento, Ellen Cristine Giese
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The development of chemical routes for the recovery and separation of rare earth elements (REE) is seen as a priority and strategic action by several countries demanding these elements. Among the possibilities of alternative routes, the biosorption process has been evaluated in our laboratory. In this theme, the present work attempts to assess and fit the solution equilibrium data in Langmuir, Freundlich and DKR isothermal models, based on the biosorption results of the lanthanum and samarium elements by Bacillus subtilis immobilized on calcium alginate gel. It was observed that the preference of adsorption of REE by the immobilized biomass followed the order Sm (III)> La (III). It can be concluded that among the studied isotherms models, the Langmuir model presented better mathematical results than the Freundlich and DKR models.Keywords: rare earth elements, biosorption, Bacillus subtilis, adsorption isotherm models
Procedia PDF Downloads 1608193 Archaeology Study of Soul Houses in Ancient Egypt on Five Models in the Grand Egyptian Museum
Authors: Mahmoud Aly, Mohamed Ismail, Mohamed Badereldin, Amro Mostafa
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Introduction: The models of soul houses were appeared in the prehistory, old kingdom, and middle kingdom period. They represented the imagination of the deceased about his house in the afterlife, some of these soul houses were two floors, and the study will examine five models of soul houses which were discovered near Saqqara site by an Egyptian mission. These models had been transferred to The Grand Egyptian Museum (GEM) to be ready to display at the new museum. We focus upon five models of soul houses (GEM Numbers, 1276,1280,1281,1282,8711) they related to the old kingdom period. These models were all made of pottery, the five models have oval shape and were decorated with relief. Methodology: The study will focus on the development of soul houses during the different periods in ancient Egypt and the kinds of offerings which will reflect the economic situation in the Egyptian society and kinds of oils which were famous in ancient Egypt. Conclusion: This research focuses on the function of soul house and the kind of offerings which were put in it, This study will be useful for the heritage and ancient civilizations, specially when we talk about opening new museums like The Grand Egyptian Museum, which will display a new collection of soul houses.Keywords: archaeology study, grand egyptian museum, relief, soul houses
Procedia PDF Downloads 91