Search results for: endogenous fluctuations

Authors: Alev Atak

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We study the endogeneity in the cryptocurrency market over the branching ratio of the Hawkes process and evaluate the movement of self-excitability in the financial markets. We consider a semi-parametric self-exciting point process regression model where the excitation function is assumed to be smooth and decreasing but otherwise unspecified, and the baseline intensity is assumed to be a linear function of the regressors. We apply the empirical analysis to the three largest crypto assets, i.e. Bitcoin - Ethereum - Ripple, and provide a comparison with other financial assets such as SP500, Gold, and the volatility index VIX observed from January 2015 to December 2020. The results depict variable and high levels of endogeneity in the basket of cryptocurrencies under investigation, underlining the evidence of a significant role of endogenous feedback mechanisms in the price formation process.

Keywords: hawkes process, cryptocurrency, endogeneity, reflexivity

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Authors: Sarayu Vanga, Jorge Galeano-Cabral, Kaya Wei

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Cerebral hypoxia refers to a condition in which there is a decrease in oxygen supply to the brain. Patients suffering from this condition experience a decrease in their body temperature. While there isn't any cure to treat cerebral hypoxia as of date, certain procedures are utilized to help aid in the treatment of the condition. Regulating the body temperature is an example of one of those procedures. Hypoxia is well known to reduce the body temperature of mammals, although the neural origins of this response remain uncertain. In order to speed recovery from this condition, it is necessary to maintain a stable body temperature. In this study, we present an approach to regulating body temperature for patients who suffer from cerebral hypoxia or other similar conditions. After a thorough literature study, we propose the use of thermoelectric blankets, which are temperature-controlled thermal blankets based on thermoelectric devices. These blankets are capable of heating up and cooling down the patient to stabilize body temperature. This feature is possible through the reversible effect that thermoelectric devices offer while behaving as a thermal sensor, and it is an effective way to stabilize temperature. Thermoelectricity is the direct conversion of thermal to electrical energy and vice versa. This effect is now known as the Seebeck effect, and it is characterized by the Seebeck coefficient. In such a configuration, the device has cooling and heating sides with temperatures that can be interchanged by simply switching the direction of the current input in the system. This design integrates various aspects, including a humidifier, ventilation machine, IV-administered medication, air conditioning, circulation device, and a body temperature regulation system. The proposed design includes thermocouples that will trigger the blanket to increase or decrease a set temperature through a medical temperature sensor. Additionally, the proposed design allows an efficient way to control fluctuations in body temperature while being cost-friendly, with an expected cost of 150 dollars. We are currently working on developing a prototype of the design to collect thermal and electrical data under different conditions and also intend to perform an optimization analysis to improve the design even further. While this proposal was developed for treating cerebral hypoxia, it can also aid in the treatment of other related conditions, as fluctuations in body temperature appear to be a common symptom that patients have for many illnesses.

Keywords: body temperature regulation, cerebral hypoxia, thermoelectric, blanket design

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Authors: Klaudia Chmielewska, Krystyna Dzierzbicka, Iwona Inkielewicz-Stepniak

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Carnosine, an endogenous peptide consisting of β-alanine and L-histidine has a variety of functions to mention: antioxidant, antiglycation, and reducing the toxicity of metal ions. It has therefore been proposed to act as a therapeutic agent for many pathological states, although its therapeutic index is limited by quick enzymatic cleavage. To overcome this limitation, there’s an urge to create new derivatives which might become less potent to hydrolysis, while preserving the therapeutic effect. The poster summarizes the efficiency of two peptide synthesis methods, which were: (1) the mixed anhydride with isobutyl chloroformate and N-methylmorpholine (NMM) and (2) carbodiimide - mediated coupling method via appropriate reagent condensing, here – CDI. The methods were used to obtain dipeptides which were the derivatives of carnosine. Obtained dipeptides were made in the form of methyl esters and their structures will be confirmed 1H NMR, 13C NMR, MS and elemental analysis techniques. Later on, they will be analyzed for their antioxidant properties, in comparison to carnosine.

Keywords: carnosine, method, peptide, synthesis

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Authors: A. J. Babajanyan, T. A. Abrahamyan, H. A. Minasyan, K. V. Nerkararyan

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Optical radiation emitted from a metal-coated fiber tip apex at liquid-air interface was measured. The intensity of the output radiation was strongly depending on the relative position of the tip to a liquid-air interface and varied with surface fluctuations. This phenomenon permits in-situ real-time investigation of nano-metric vibrations of the liquid surface and provides a basis for development of various origin ultrasensitive vibration detecting sensors. The described method can be used for detection of week seismic vibrations.

Keywords: fiber-tip, liquid-air interface, nano vibration, opto-mechanical sensor

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Authors: Juan Manuel Sanchez-Cartas, Gonzalo Leon

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A price competition algorithm for ABMs based on game theory principles is proposed to deal with the simulation of theoretical market models. The algorithm is applied to the classical Hotelling’s model and to a two-sided market model to show it leads to the optimal behavior predicted by theoretical models. However, when theoretical models fail to predict the equilibrium, the algorithm is capable of reaching a feasible outcome. Results highlight that the algorithm can be implemented in other simulation models to guarantee rational users and endogenous optimal behaviors. Also, it can be applied as a tool of verification given that is theoretically based.

Keywords: agent-based models, algorithmic game theory, multi-sided markets, price optimization

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Authors: T. Vamsee Kiran, A. Gopi

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The undesired torque and flux ripple may occur in conventional direct torque control (DTC) induction motor drive. DTC can improve the system performance at low speeds by continuously tuning the regulator by adjusting the Kp, Ki values. In this differential evolution (DE) is proposed to adjust the parameters (Kp, Ki) of the speed controller in order to minimize torque ripple, flux ripple, and stator current distortion.The DE based PI controller has resulted is maintaining a constant speed of the motor irrespective of the load torque fluctuations.

Keywords: differential evolution, direct torque control, PI controller

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Authors: Wei-Kuo Soong

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The forecasting of typhoon tracks remains a formidable challenge, primarily attributable to the paucity of observational data in the open sea and the intricate influence of weather systems at varying scales. This study investigates the case of Typhoon Hinnamnor in 2022, examining its trajectory and intensity fluctuations in relation to the interaction with a concurrent tropical cyclone and sea surface temperatures (SST). Utilizing the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), to simulate and analyze the interaction between Typhoon Hinnamnor and its environmental factors, shedding light on the mechanisms driving typhoon development and enhancing forecasting capabilities.

Keywords: typhoon, sea surface temperature, forecasting, WRF

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Authors: Z. Jannoo, B. W. Yap, N. Auchoybur, M. A. Lazim

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The two common approaches to Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) are the Covariance-Based SEM (CB-SEM) and Partial Least Squares SEM (PLS-SEM). There is much debate on the performance of CB-SEM and PLS-SEM for small sample size and when distributions are non-normal. This study evaluates the performance of CB-SEM and PLS-SEM under normality and non-normality conditions via a simulation. Monte Carlo Simulation in R programming language was employed to generate data based on the theoretical model with one endogenous and four exogenous variables. Each latent variable has three indicators. For normal distributions, CB-SEM estimates were found to be inaccurate for small sample size while PLS-SEM could produce the path estimates. Meanwhile, for a larger sample size, CB-SEM estimates have lower variability compared to PLS-SEM. Under non-normality, CB-SEM path estimates were inaccurate for small sample size. However, CB-SEM estimates are more accurate than those of PLS-SEM for sample size of 50 and above. The PLS-SEM estimates are not accurate unless sample size is very large.

Keywords: CB-SEM, Monte Carlo simulation, normality conditions, non-normality, PLS-SEM

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Authors: Teguh Sugiarto, Ahmad Subagyo, Ludiro Madu, Amir Mohammadian Amiri

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Recently, the significant fluctuations accosiated with Indonesian economy justifies the need for paying more attention to this issue. In this regard, the main objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between two issues related to the macro Indonesia economy called consumption and GDP during the period of 1967 to 2014. This research method exploits short term and long term relationships using Granger and subsequently, models them by the causality method . However, using analysis of Granger with Johansen shows that there is not only a long term, but also a short-long relationship between GDP and consumption using lags the interval 5.

Keywords: cointegration, Granger causality, GDP, consumption

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Authors: James Moran, Anusarn Permsuwan

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This paper compares oscillations in the dry friction coefficient in different journal bearings. Measurements are made of the average and standard deviation in the coefficient of friction as a function of sliding velocity. The standard deviation of the friction coefficient changed dramatically with sliding velocity. The magnitude and frequency of the oscillations were a function of the velocity. A numerical model was developed for the frictional oscillations. There was good agreement between the model and results. Five different materials were used as the sliding surfaces in the experiments, Aluminum, Bronze, Mild Steel, Stainless Steel, and Nylon.

Keywords: Coulomb friction, dynamic friction, non-lubricated bearings, frictional oscillations

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Authors: Federica Marangio

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This study looks at the triangle of knowledge: research-education-innovation as growth engine of an inclusive and sustainable society, where the research is the strategic process which allows the acquisition of knowledge, innovation appraises the knowledge acquired and the education is the enabling factor of the human capital to create entrepreneurial capital. Where does Italy and China stand in the global geography of innovation? Europe is calling on a smart, inclusive and sustainable growth through a specializing process that looks at the social and economic challenges, able to understand the characteristics of specific geographic areas. It is easily questionable why it is not as simple as it looks to come up with entrepreneurial ideas in all the geographic areas. Seen that the technology plus the human capital should be the means through which is possible to innovate and contribute to the boost of innovation culture, then the young educated people can be seen as the society changing agents and it becomes clear the importance of investigating the skills and competencies that lead to innovation. By starting innovation-based activities, other countries on an international level, are able now to be part of an healthy innovative ecosystem which is the result of a strong growth policy which enables innovation. Analyzing the geography of the innovation on a global scale, comes to light that the innovative entrepreneurship is the process which portrays the competitiveness of the regions in the knowledge-based economy as strategic process able to match intellectual capital and market opportunities. The level of innovative entrepreneurship is not only the result of the endogenous growth ability of the enterprises, but also by significant relations with other enterprises, universities, other centers of education and institutions. To obtain more innovative entrepreneurship is necessary to stimulate more synergy between all these territory actors in order to create, access and value existing and new knowledge ready to be disseminate. This study focuses on individual’s lived experience and the researcher believed that she can’t understand the human actions without understanding the meaning that they attribute to their thoughts, feelings, beliefs and so given she needed to understand the deeper perspectives captured through face-to face interaction. A case study approach will contribute to the betterment of knowledge in this field. This case study will represent a picture of the innovative ecosystem and the entrepreneurial mindset as a key ingredient of endogenous growth and a must for sustainable local and regional development and social cohesion. The case study will be realized analyzing two Chinese companies. A structured set of questions will be asked in order to gain details on what generated success or failure in the different situations with the past and at the moment of the research. Everything will be recorded not to lose important information during the transcription phase. While this work is not geared toward testing a priori hypotheses, it is nevertheless useful to examine whether the projects undertaken by the companies, were stimulated by enabling factors that, as result, enhanced or hampered the local innovation culture.

Keywords: Entrepreneurship, education, geography of innovation, education.

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Authors: Thauane Silva, Gabrielle do Vale, Andre Ferreira, Marilda Siqueira, Thiago Moreno L. Souza, Milene D. Miranda

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The exposure of A(H1N1)pdm09-infected epithelial cells (HeLa) to HIV-1 viral particles, or its gp120, enhanced interferon-induced transmembrane protein (IFITM3) content, a viral restriction factor (RF), resulting in a decrease in influenza replication. The gp120 binds to CCR5 (R5) or CXCR4 (X4) cell receptors during HIV-1 infection. Then, it is possible that the endogenous ligands of these receptors also modulate the expression of IFITM3 and other cellular factors that restrict influenza virus replication. Thus, the aim of this study is to analyze the role of cellular receptors R5 and X4 in modulating RFs in order to inhibit the replication of the influenza virus. A549 cells were treated with 2x effective dose (ED50) of endogenous R5 or X4 receptor agonists, CCL3 (20 ng/ml), CCL4 (10 ng/ml), CCL5 (10 ng/ml) and CXCL12 (100 ng/mL) or exogenous agonists, gp120 Bal-R5, gp120 IIIB-X4 and its mutants (5 µg/mL). The interferon α (10 ng/mL) and oseltamivir (60 nM) were used as a control. After 24 h post agonists exposure, the cells were infected with virus influenza A(H3N2) at 2 MOI (multiplicity of infection) for 1 h. Then, 24 h post infection, the supernatant was harvested and, the viral titre was evaluated by qRT-PCR. To evaluate IFITM3 and SAM and HD domain containing deoxynucleoside triphosphate triphosphohydrolase 1 (SAMHD1) protein levels, A549 were exposed to agonists for 24 h, and the monolayer was lysed with Laemmli buffer for western blot (WB) assay or fixed for indirect immunofluorescence (IFI) assay. In addition to this, we analyzed other RFs modulation in A549, after 24 h post agonists exposure by customized RT² Profiler Polymerase Chain Reaction Array. We also performed a functional assay in which SAMHD1-knocked-down, by single-stranded RNA (siRNA), A549 cells were infected with A(H3N2). In addition, the cells were treated with guanosine to assess the regulatory role of dNTPs by SAMHD1. We found that R5 and X4 agonists inhibited influenza replication in 54 ± 9%. We observed a four-fold increase in SAMHD1 transcripts by RFs mRNA quantification panel. After 24 h post agonists exposure, we did not observe an increase in IFITM3 protein levels through WB or IFI assays, but we observed an upregulation up to three-fold in the protein content of SAMHD1, in A549 exposed to agonists. Besides this, influenza replication enhanced in 20% in cell cultures that SAMDH1 was knockdown. Guanosine treatment in cells exposed to R5 ligands further inhibited influenza virus replication, suggesting that the inhibitory mechanism may involve the activation of the SAMHD1 deoxynucleotide triphosphohydrolase activity. Thus, our data show for the first time a direct relationship of SAMHD1 and inhibition of influenza replication, and provides perspectives for new studies on the signaling modulation, through cellular receptors, to induce proteins of great importance in the control of relevant infections for public health.

Keywords: chemokine receptors, gp120, influenza, virus restriction factors

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Authors: Mahdieh Omranian, Mehran Ghanbari Motlagh

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As we know, today urban growth, development, and intelligent social evolutions have been proposed in metropolises and this matter extends urban life which can have negative items besides positive and strong items. Along with research on urban life desirable development, conditions should be provided to provide the possibility of human stable development and improvement social welfare. These conditions can reinforce social, economic, and political structures related to non-expensive housing. Demand for non-expensive housing is increasing regarding to population increase and incremental urbanizing process. Therefore, the present study by precise exploration on conceptions, challenges, and strategies, should achieve an endogenous pattern and improve housing condition by looking to instant development. Therefore, the general objective of this article recognizes the existed strategies in housing and achieving desirable conditions for all social classes by sustainable development.

Keywords: housing strategies, infrastructure, metropolis, sustainable development

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Authors: Razi Khalafi

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Brain is the information processing center of the human body. Stimuli in form of information are transferred to the brain and then brain makes the decision on how to respond to them. In this research we propose a new partial differential equation which analyses the EEG signals and make a relationship between the incoming stimuli and the brain response to them. In order to test the proposed model, a set of external stimuli applied to the model and the model’s outputs were checked versus the real EEG data. The results show that this model can model the EEG signal well. The proposed model is useful not only for modeling of the EEG signal in case external stimuli but it can be used for the modeling of brain response in case of internal stimuli.

Keywords: Brain, stimuli, partial differential equation, response, eeg signal

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Authors: S. Vivek, Sharad Sharan, R. Arvind, D. V. Praveen, J. Vigneshwar, S. Ajith, V. R. Sanal Kumar

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In this paper numerical studies have been carried out to examine the starting transient flow features of high-performance solid propellant rocket motors with different port geometries but with same propellant loading density. Numerical computations have been carried out using a 3D SST k-ω turbulence model. This code solves standard k-omega turbulence equations with shear flow corrections using a coupled second order implicit unsteady formulation. In the numerical study, a fully implicit finite volume scheme of the compressible, Reynolds-Averaged, Navier-Stokes equations are employed. We have observed from the numerical results that in solid rocket motors with highly loaded propellants having divergent port geometry the hot igniter gases can create pre-ignition thrust oscillations due to flow unsteadiness and recirculation. Under these conditions the convective flux to the surface of the propellant will be enhanced, which will create reattachment point far downstream of the transition region and it will create a situation for secondary ignition and formation of multiple-flame fronts. As a result the effective time required for the complete burning surface area to be ignited comes down drastically giving rise to a high pressurization rate (dp/dt) in the second phase of starting transient. This in effect could lead to starting thrust oscillations and eventually a hard start of the solid rocket motor. We have also observed that the igniter temperature fluctuations will be diminished rapidly and will reach the steady state value faster in the case of solid propellant rocket motors with convergent port than the divergent port irrespective of the igniter total pressure. We have concluded that the thrust oscillations and unexpected thrust spike often observed in solid rockets with non-uniform ports are presumably contributed due to the joint effects of the geometry dependent driving forces, transient burning and the chamber gas dynamics forces. We also concluded that the prudent selection of the port geometry, without altering the propellant loading density, for damping the total temperature fluctuations within the motor is a meaningful objective for the suppression and control of instability and/or pressure/thrust oscillations often observed in solid propellant rocket motors with non-uniform port geometry.

Keywords: ignition transient, solid rockets, starting transient, thrust transient

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Authors: T. A. Prikhna, A. V. Shaternik, V. E. Moshchil, M. Eisterer, V. E. Shaternik

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The paper presents the results of studying the structure, phase composition, relief, and superconducting characteristics of oxygen-containing thin films of magnesium diboride (MgB₂) deposited on a dielectric substrate by magnetron sputtering of diboride-magnesium targets. The possibility of forming films of varying degrees of crystalline perfection and phase composition in the process of precipitation and annealing is shown, depending on the conditions of deposition and annealing. In the films, it is possible to realize various combinations of the Abrikosov vortex pinning centers (in the places of fluctuations of the critical temperature of the superconducting transition (T

Keywords: critical current density, diboride, superconducting thin films, upper critical field

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Authors: Motalleb Byzedi, Seyedeh Chaman Naderi Korvandan

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Regarding annual statistics of groundwater level resources about current piezometers at Qorveh plains, both ARMA & PARMA modeling methods were applied in this study by the using of SAMS software. Upon performing required tests, a model was used with minimum amount of Akaike information criteria and suitable model was selected for piezometers. Then it was possible to make necessary estimations by using these models for future fluctuations in each piezometer. According to the results, ARMA model had more facilities for modeling of aquifer. Also it was cleared that eastern parts of aquifer had more failures than other parts. Therefore it is necessary to prohibit critical parts along with more supervision on taking rates of wells.

Keywords: qorveh plain, groundwater level, ARMA, PARMA

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Authors: Yousuf M. Al Suleimani, Robin Hiley

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The endogenous phospholipid lysophosphatidylinositol (LPI) was recently identified as a novel ligand for the G protein-coupled receptor 55 (GPR55) and an inducer of intracellular Ca2+ [Ca2+]i release. This study attempts to characterize Ca2+ signals provoked by LPI in HEK293 cells engineered to stably express human GPR55 and to test cannabinoid ligand activity at GPR55. The study shows that treatment with LPI stimulates a sustained, oscillatory Ca2+ release. The response is characterized by an initial rapid rise, which is mediated by the Gαq-PLC-IP3 pathway, and this is followed by prolonged oscillations that require RhoA activation. Ca2+ oscillations are initiated by intracellular mechanisms and extracellular Ca2+ is only required to replenish Ca2+ lost from the cytoplasm. Analysis of cannabinoid ligand activity at GPR55 revealed no clear effect of the endocannabinoid anandamide, however, rimonabant and the CB1 receptor antagonist AM251 evoked GPR55-mediated [Ca2+]i. Thus, LPI is likely to be a key plasma membrane mediator of signaling events and changes in gene expression through GPR55 activation.

Keywords: lysophosphatidylinositol, calcium, GPR55, cannabinoid

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Authors: Yisau Adelaja Odusote, Olakanmi Felix Akinto

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The associative tendency between like atoms in molten Cd-Ga and Cd-In alloy systems has been studied by using the Quasi-Chemical Approximation Model (QCAM). The concentration dependence of the microscopic functions (the concentration-concentration fluctuations in the long-wavelength limits, Scc(0), the chemical short-range order (CSRO) parameter α1 as well as the chemical diffusion) and the mixing properties as the free energy of mixing, GM, enthalpy of mixing and entropy of mixing of the two molten alloys have been determined. Thermodynamic properties of both systems deviate positively from Raoult's law, while the systems are characterized by positive interaction energy. The role of atomic size ratio on the alloying properties was discussed.

Keywords: homo-pairs, interchange energy, enthalpy, entropy, Cd-Ga, Cd-In

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Authors: Leila Graini

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In this paper, we demonstrate basic all-optical functions for 2R regeneration (Re-amplification and Re-shaping) based on self-similar spectral broadening in low normal dispersion and highly nonlinear fiber (ND-HNLF) to regenerate the signal through optical filtering including the transfer function characteristics, and output extinction ratio. Our approach of all-optical 2R regeneration is based on those of Mamyshev. The numerical study reveals the self-similar spectral broadening very effective for 2R all-optical regeneration; the proposed design presents high stability compared to a conventional regenerator using SPM broadening with reduction of the intensity fluctuations and improvement of the extinction ratio.

Keywords: all-optical function, 2R optical regeneration, self-similar broadening, Mamyshev regenerator

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Authors: S. N. Derrar, M. Sekkal-Rahal

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The Nonlinear optics (NLO) technique is widely used in the field of biological imaging. In fact, grafting biological entities with a high NLO response on tissues and cells enhances the NLO responses of these latter, and ameliorates, consequently, their biological imaging quality. In this optics, we carried out a theoretical study, in the aim of analyzing the peptide bonds created between alanine amino acid and both unnatural amino acids: L-Dopa and Azatryptophan, respectively. Ramachandran plots have been performed for these systems, and their structural parameters have been analyzed. The NLO responses of these peptides have been reported by calculating the first hyperpolarizability values of all the minima found on the plots. The use of such unnatural amino acids as endogenous probing molecules has been investigated through this study. The Density Functional Theory (DFT) has been used for structural properties, while the Second-order Møller-Plesset Perturbation Theory (MP2) has been employed for the NLO calculations.

Keywords: biological imaging, hyperpolarizability, nonlinear optics, probing molecule

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Authors: Anam Gopi

Abstract:

The undesired torque and flux ripple may occur in conventional direct torque control (DTC) induction motor drive. DTC can improve the system performance at low speeds by continuously tuning the regulator by adjusting the Kp, Ki values. In this Teaching Learning Based Optimization (TLBO) is proposed to adjust the parameters (Kp, Ki) of the speed controller in order to minimize torque ripple, flux ripple, and stator current distortion. The TLBO based PI controller has resulted is maintaining a constant speed of the motor irrespective of the load torque fluctuations.

Keywords: teaching learning based optimization, direct torque control, PI controller

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Authors: Liqiang Chen

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This study investigates the effects of political connections on the association between firms’ business strategy and their tax aggressiveness in an emerging economy such as China. By studying all public Chinese firms in the period from 2011 to 2017, we find that firms adopting innovative business strategy are more tax aggressive overall, but innovative firms with political connections are less tax aggressive compared to those without political connections. Moreover, we document several channels through which political connections affect the association between innovative business strategy and tax aggressiveness. In particular, we show that the mitigation effect of political connections on tax aggressiveness is stronger for innovative firms located in areas with a lower marketization index and for innovative firms with a lower leverage level or with less earnings management. Our results are robust to an instrumental variable approach to account for possible endogenous bias. Our study contributes to the understanding of firms’ tax behaviors in an emerging economy setting and suggests that there are costs associated with political connections, such as foregone tax saving opportunities, which are understudied in the prior literature.

Keywords: tax aggressiveness, business strategy, political connections, emerging economy

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Authors: Chala Elhassen

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City planning and urban management seem more complex our days compared to past times. The interaction of many factors both endogenous and exogenous made more difficult the urban fact. The city has changed status with the demographic bulge. It passed the primary status meeting limited requirements to a multidisciplinary status marked by the diversity of needs. These increase with the increase in population and living standard. Our era is marked by urbanization, complex phenomenon that develops both in industrialized countries in those of the third world. Human concentrations increasingly have significant multiplier effects on the social and economic structure of a region or a country. On the whole, the issue of urban planning revolved around questions related firstly to the understanding of the phenomena of urbanization; and also in search of the most appropriate ways to ensure control, the efficiency and consistency of the urbanization process. Urban planning remains an ambiguous area that mixes scientific contributions, technical, artistic, administrative and legal in varying proportions. What is the founder of specificity is that it always presupposes the existence of a will to act, itself supported by a thorough knowledge of will.

Keywords: urbanization, urban planning, management, industrialized countries

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Authors: Ramona Zharfpeykan

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This study analyses the trend and nature of sustainability key performance indicators (KPIs) reporting in firms globally. It presents both trend and panel data of sustainability reports of 798 firms in the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) database from 2010 to 2014. The results show some fluctuations in the frequency of sustainability KPI reporting globally across the time while the major focus of reports in firms stayed almost the same. It made us further analyse this trend and found that there are some indicators, such as 'environmental protect expenses' and 'number of grievances', that was barely reported over this period along with some highly popular ones such as 'direct economic value' and 'employment rate'. We could not find any statistical correlation between the KPI reporting percentage and the firms’ industries generally and neither if they belong to environmentally sensitive industries.

Keywords: global reporting initiatives, sustainability reporting, sustainability KPI, trends of sustainability reporting

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Authors: Manon Ghislain, Timothée Bonnet, Olivier Gimenez, Olivier Dehorter, Pierre-Yves Henry

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Climatic fluctuations affect the demography of animal populations, generating changes in population size, phenology, distribution and community assemblages. However, very few studies have identified the underlying demographic processes. For short-lived species, like common passerine birds, are these changes generated by changes in adult survival or in fecundity and recruitment? This study tests for an effect of annual climatic conditions (spring and winter) on annual, local adult survival at very large spatial (a country, 252 sites), temporal (25 years) and biological (25 species) scales. The Constant Effort Site ringing has allowed the collection of capture - mark - recapture data for 100 000 adult individuals since 1989, over metropolitan France, thus documenting annual, local survival rates of the most common passerine birds. We specifically developed a set of multi-year, multi-species, multi-site Bayesian models describing variations in local survival and recapture probabilities. This method allows for a statistically powerful hierarchical assessment (global versus species-specific) of the effects of climate variables on survival. A major part of between-year variations in survival rate was common to all species (74% of between-year variance), whereas only 26% of temporal variation was species-specific. Although changing spring climate is commonly invoked as a cause of population size fluctuations, spring climatic anomalies (mean precipitation or temperature for March-August) do not impact adult survival: only 1% of between-year variation of species survival is explained by spring climatic anomalies. However, for sedentary birds, winter climatic anomalies (North Atlantic Oscillation) had a significant, quadratic effect on adult survival, birds surviving less during intermediate years than during more extreme years. For migratory birds, we do not detect an effect of winter climatic anomalies (Sahel Rainfall). We will analyze the life history traits (migration, habitat, thermal range) that could explain a different sensitivity of species to winter climate anomalies. Overall, we conclude that changes in population sizes for passerine birds are unlikely to be the consequences of climate-driven mortality (or emigration) in spring but could be induced by other demographic parameters, like fecundity.

Keywords: Bayesian approach, capture-recapture, climate anomaly, constant effort sites scheme, passerine, seasons, survival

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Authors: Nada R. Abuknesha, John P. Morgan, Andrew J. Searle

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Information regarding post-mortem interval (PMI) in criminal investigations is vital to establish a time frame when reconstructing events. PMI is defined as the time period that has elapsed between the occurrence of death and the discovery of the corpse. Adipocere, commonly referred to as ‘grave-wax’, is formed when post-mortem adipose tissue is converted into a solid material that is heavily comprised of fatty acids. Adipocere is of interest to forensic anthropologists, as its formation is able to slow down the decomposition process. Therefore, analysing the changes in the patterns of fatty acids during the early decomposition process may be able to estimate the period of burial, and hence the PMI. The current study concerned the investigation of the fatty acid composition and patterns in buried pig fat tissue. This was in an attempt to determine whether particular patterns of fatty acid composition can be shown to be associated with the duration of the burial, and hence may be used to estimate PMI. The use of adipose tissue from the abdominal region of domestic pigs (Sus-scrofa), was used to model the human decomposition process. 17 x 20cm piece of pork belly was buried in a shallow artificial grave, and weekly samples (n=3) from the buried pig fat tissue were collected over an 11-week period. Marker fatty acids: palmitic (C16:0), oleic (C18:1n-9) and linoleic (C18:2n-6) acid were extracted from the buried pig fat tissue and analysed as fatty acid methyl esters using the gas chromatography system. Levels of the marker fatty acids were quantified from their respective standards. The concentrations of C16:0 (69.2 mg/mL) and C18:1n-9 (44.3 mg/mL) from time zero exhibited significant fluctuations during the burial period. Levels rose (116 and 60.2 mg/mL, respectively) and fell starting from the second week to reach 19.3 and 18.3 mg/mL, respectively at week 6. Levels showed another increase at week 9 (66.3 and 44.1 mg/mL, respectively) followed by gradual decrease at week 10 (20.4 and 18.5 mg/mL, respectively). A sharp increase was observed in the final week (131.2 and 61.1 mg/mL, respectively). Conversely, the levels of C18:2n-6 remained more or less constant throughout the study. In addition to fluctuations in the concentrations, several new fatty acids appeared in the latter weeks. Other fatty acids which were detectable in the time zero sample, were lost in the latter weeks. There are several probable opportunities to utilise fatty acid analysis as a basic technique for approximating PMI: the quantification of marker fatty acids and the detection of selected fatty acids that either disappear or appear during the burial period. This pilot study indicates that this may be a potential semi-quantitative methodology for determining the PMI. Ideally, the analysis of particular fatty acid patterns in the early stages of decomposition could be an additional tool to the already available techniques or methods in improving the overall processes in estimating PMI of a corpse.

Keywords: adipocere, fatty acids, gas chromatography, post-mortem interval

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Authors: Eva Kotlánová

Abstract:

After recession that began in 2007 in the United States and subsequently spilled over the Europe we could expect recovery of economic growth. According to the last estimation of economic progress of European countries, this recovery is not strong enough. Among others, it will depend on economic policy, where and in which way, the economic indicators will proceed. Economic theories postulate that the economic subjects prefer stably, continual economic policy without repeated and strong fluctuations. This policy is perceived as support of economic growth. Mostly in crises period, when the government must cope with consequences of recession, the economic policy becomes unpredictable for many subjects and economic policy uncertainty grows, which have negative influence on economic growth. The aim of this paper is to use panel regression to prove or disprove this hypothesis on the example of five largest European economies in the period 2008–2012.

Keywords: economic crises in Europe, economic policy, uncertainty, panel analysis regression

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Authors: Jungyeol Hong, Dongjoo Park

Abstract:

The urban transit system is a critical part of a solution to the economic, energy, and environmental challenges. Furthermore, it ultimately contributes the improvement of people’s quality of lives. For taking these kinds of advantages, the city of Seoul has tried to construct an integrated transit system including both subway and buses. The effort led to the fact that approximately 6.9 million citizens use the integrated transit system every day for their trips. Diagnosing the current transit network is a significant task to provide more convenient and pleasant transit environment. Therefore, the critical objective of this study is to establish a methodological framework for the analysis of an integrated bus-subway network and to examine the relationship between subway ridership and parameters such as network topology measures, bus demand, and a variety of commercial business facilities. Regarding a statistical approach to estimate subway ridership at a station level, many previous studies relied on Ordinary Least Square regression, but there was lack of studies considering the endogeneity issues which might show in the subway ridership prediction model. This study focused on both discovering the impacts of integrated transit network topology measures and endogenous effect of bus demand on subway ridership. It could ultimately contribute to developing more accurate subway ridership estimation accounting for its statistical bias. The spatial scope of the study covers Seoul city in South Korea, and it includes 243 subway stations and 10,120 bus stops with the temporal scope set during twenty-four hours with one-hour interval time panels each. The subway and bus ridership information in detail was collected from the Seoul Smart Card data in 2015 and 2016. First, integrated subway-bus network topology measures which have characteristics regarding connectivity, centrality, transitivity, and reciprocity were estimated based on the complex network theory. The results of integrated transit network topology analysis were compared to subway-only network topology. Also, the non-recursive approach which is Three-Stage Least Square was applied to develop the daily subway ridership model as capturing the endogeneity between bus and subway demands. Independent variables included roadway geometry, commercial business characteristics, social-economic characteristics, safety index, transit facility attributes, and dummies for seasons and time zone. Consequently, it was found that network topology measures were significant size effect. Especially, centrality measures showed that the elasticity was a change of 4.88% for closeness centrality, 24.48% for betweenness centrality while the elasticity of bus ridership was 8.85%. Moreover, it was proved that bus demand and subway ridership were endogenous in a non-recursive manner as showing that predicted bus ridership and predicted subway ridership is statistically significant in OLS regression models. Therefore, it shows that three-stage least square model appears to be a plausible model for efficient subway ridership estimation. It is expected that the proposed approach provides a reliable guideline that can be used as part of the spectrum of tools for evaluating a city-wide integrated transit network.

Keywords: integrated transit system, network topology measures, three-stage least squared, endogeneity, subway ridership

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Authors: Xavier Ruiz Del Portal

Abstract:

This paper incorporates mobility between the legal and black economies into a model of tax evasion with endogenous labor supply in which underreporting is possible in one sector but impossible in the other. We have found that the results of the effects along the extensive margin (number of evaders) become more robust and conclusive than those along the intensive margin (hours of illegal work) usually considered by the literature. In particular, it is shown that the following policies reduce the number of evaders: (a) larger and more progressive evasion penalties; (b) higher detection probabilities; (c) an increase in the legal sector wage rate; (d) a decrease in the moonlighting wage rate; (e) higher costs for creating opportunities to evade; (f) lower opportunities to evade, and (g) greater psychological costs of tax evasion. When tax concealment and illegal work also are taken into account, the effects do not vary significantly under the assumptions in Cowell (1985), except for the fact that policies (a) and (b) only hold as regards low- and middle-income groups and policies (e) and (f) as regards high-income groups.

Keywords: income taxation, tax evasion, extensive margin responses, the penalty system

Procedia PDF Downloads 138