Search results for: disease index

Authors: Claudeline D. Cellan

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Development is multifaceted, and efforts to hasten growth in all these facets have been gaining traction in recent years. Thus, producing a composite index that is reflective of these multidimensional impacts captures the interests of policymakers. The problem lies in going through a mixture of theoretical, methodological and empirical decisions and complexities which, when done carelessly, can lead to inconsistent and unreliable results. This study looks into index computation from a different and less complex perspective. Borrowing the idea of archetypes or ‘pure types’, archetypal analysis looks for points in the convex hull of the multivariate data set that captures as much information in the data as possible. The archetypes or 'pure types' are estimated such that they are convex combinations of all the observations, which in turn are convex combinations of the archetypes. This ensures that the archetypes are realistically observable, therefore achievable. In the sense of composite indices, we look for the best among these archetypes and use this as a benchmark for index computation. Its straightforward and simplistic approach does away with aggregation and substitutability problems which are commonly encountered in index computation. As an example of the application of archetypal analysis in index construction, the country data for the Human Development Index (HDI 2017) of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) is used. The goal of this exercise is not to replicate the result of the UNDP-computed HDI, but to illustrate the usability of archetypal analysis in index construction. Here best is defined in the context of life, education and gross national income sub-indices. Results show that the HDI from the archetypal analysis has a linear relationship with the UNDP-computed HDI.

Keywords: archetypes, composite index, convex combination, development

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Authors: Shokofeh Ebrtahimi

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Let G be the chemical graph of a molecule. The matrix D = [dij ] is called the detour matrix of G, if dij is the length of longest path between atoms i and j. The sum of all entries above the main diagonal of D is called the detour index of G.Chemical graph theory is the topology branch of mathematical chemistry which applies graph theory to mathematical modelling of chemical phenomena.[1] The pioneers of the chemical graph theory are Alexandru Balaban, Ante Graovac, Ivan Gutman, Haruo Hosoya, Milan Randić and Nenad TrinajstićLet G be the chemical graph of a molecule. The matrix D = [dij ] is called the detour matrix of G, if dij is the length of longest path between atoms i and j. The sum of all entries above the main diagonal of D is called the detour index of G. In this paper, a new program for computing the detour index of molecular graphs of nanotubes by heptagons is determineded. Some Conjectures about detour index of Molecular graphs of nanotubes is included.

Keywords: chemical graph, detour matrix, Detour index, carbon nanotube

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Authors: Addisu Tadesse Sahile, Tennyson Mgutshini

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Background: Periodontal disease is a common, complex, inflammatory disease characterized by the destruction of tooth-supporting soft and hard tissues of the periodontium and a major public health problem across developed and developing countries. Objectives: The study was aimed at assessing the prevalence of periodontal disease and associated factors among diabetes patients in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 2018. Methods: Institutional based cross-sectional study was conducted on 388 diabetes patients selected by systematic random sampling method from March to May 2018. The study was conducted at two conveniently selected public hospitals in Addis Ababa. Data were collected with pre-tested, structured and translated questionnaire then entered to SPSS version 23 software for analysis. Descriptive statistics as a summary, in line with chi-square and binary logistics regression to identify factors associated with periodontal disease, were applied. A 95% CI with a p-value less than 5% was used as a level of significance. Results: Ninety-one percent (n=353) of participants had periodontal disease while oral examination was done in six regions. While only 9% (n=35) of participants were free of periodontal disease. The number of tooth brushings per day, correct techniques of brushing, malocclusion, and fillings that are defective were associated with periodontal disease at p < 0.05. Conclusion and recommendation: A higher prevalence of periodontal disease among diabetes patient was observed. The frequency of tooth brushing, correct techniques of brushing, malocclusion and defective fillings were associated with periodontal disease. Emphasis has to be given to oral health of diabetes patients by every concerned body so as to control the current higher burden of periodontal disease in diabetes.

Keywords: periodontal disease, risk factors, diabetes mellitus, Addis Ababa

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Authors: Ilker Ali Ozkan

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In this study, an artificial neural network model has been developed to estimate chronic kidney failure which is a common disease. The patients’ age, their blood and biochemical values, and 24 input data which consists of various chronic diseases are used for the estimation process. The input data have been subjected to preprocessing because they contain both missing values and nominal values. 147 patient data which was obtained from the preprocessing have been divided into as 70% training and 30% testing data. As a result of the study, artificial neural network model with 25 neurons in the hidden layer has been found as the model with the lowest error value. Chronic kidney failure disease has been able to be estimated accurately at the rate of 99.3% using this artificial neural network model. The developed artificial neural network has been found successful for the estimation of chronic kidney failure disease using clinical data.

Keywords: estimation, artificial neural network, chronic kidney failure disease, disease diagnosis

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Authors: Kambiz Hassanzadeh, Seyedeh Shohreh Ebrahimi, Shahrbanoo Oryan, Arman Rahimmi, Esmael Izadpanah

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Parkinson’s disease is one of the most prevalent neurodegenerative diseases which occurs in elderly. There are convincing evidences that oxidative stress has an important role in both the initiation and progression of Parkinson’s disease. Thymoquinone (TQ) is shown to have antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties in invitro and invivo studies. It is well documented that TQ acts as a free radical scavenger and prevents the cell damage. Therefore this study aimed to evaluate the effect of TQ on motor and non-motor symptoms in animal model of Parkinson’s disease. Male Wistar rats (10-12 months) received rotenone (1mg/kg/day, sc) to induce Parkinson’s disease model. Pretreatment with TQ (7.5 and 15 mg/kg/day, po) was administered one hour before the rotenone injection. Three motor tests (rotarod, rearing and bar tests) and two non-motor tests (forced swimming and elevated plus maze) were performed for behavioral assessment. Our results indicated that TQ significantly ameliorated the rotenone-induced motor dysfunction in rotarod and rearing tests also it could prevent the non-motor dysfunctions in forced swimming and elevated plus maze tests. In conclusion we found that TQ delayed the Parkinson's disease induction by rotenone and this effect might be related to its proved antioxidant effect.

Keywords: Parkinson's disease, thymoquinone, motor and non-motor symptoms, neurodegenerative disease

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Authors: Nurudeen O. Lasisi, Sirajo Abdulrahman, Abdulkareem A. Ibrahim

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Newcastle disease is an infection of domestic poultry and other bird species with the virulent Newcastle disease virus (NDV). In this paper, we study the dynamics of the modeling of the Newcastle disease virus (NDV) using a novel quarantine-adjusted incidence. The comparison of Vaccination, linear incident rate and novel quarantine-adjusted incident rate in the models are discussed. The dynamics of the models yield disease-free and endemic equilibrium states.The effective reproduction numbers of the models are computed in order to measure the relative impact of an individual bird or combined intervention for effective disease control. We showed the local and global stability of endemic equilibrium states of the models and we found that the stability of endemic equilibrium states of models are globally asymptotically stable if the effective reproduction numbers of the models equations are greater than a unit.

Keywords: effective reproduction number, Endemic state, Mathematical model, Newcastle disease virus, novel quarantine-adjusted incidence, stability analysis

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Authors: Farah Naja, Nahla Hwalla, Leila Itani, Shirine Baalbaki, Abla Sibai, Lara Nasreddine

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Purpose: To propose an index for assessing adherence to a Middle-Eastern version of the Mediterranean diet as represented by the traditional Lebanese Mediterranean diet (LMD), to evaluate the association between the LMD and selected European Mediterranean diets (EMD); to examine socio-demographic and lifestyle correlates of adherence to Mediterranean diet (MD) among Lebanese adults. Methods: Using nationally representative dietary intake data of Lebanese adults, an index to measure adherence to the LMD was derived. The choice of food groups used for calculating the LMD score was based on results of previous factor analyses conducted on the same dataset. These food groups included fruits, vegetables, legumes, olive oil, burghol, dairy products, starchy vegetables, dried fruits, and eggs. Using Pearson’s correlation and scores tertiles distributions agreement, the derived LMD index was compared to previously published EMD indexes from Greece, Spain, Italy, France, and EPIC. Results: Fruits, vegetables and olive oil were common denominators to all MD scores. Food groups, specific to the LMD, included burghol and dried fruits. The LMD score significantly correlated with the EMD scores, while being closest to the Italian (r=0.57) and farthest from the French (r=0.21). Percent agreement between scores’ tertile distributions and Kappa statistics confirmed these findings. Multivariate linear regression showed that older age, higher educational, female gender, and healthy lifestyle characteristics were associated with increased adherence to all MD studied. Conclusion: A novel LMD index was proposed to characterize Mediterranean diet in Lebanon, complementing international efforts to characterize the MD and its association with disease risk.

Keywords: mediterranean diet, adherence, Middle-East, Lebanon, Europe

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Authors: Helen Frialde-Dupale

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Critical thinking Index (CTI) of 150 third year college students from five State Colleges and Universities (SUCs) in Region I were determined. Only students with Grade Point Average (GPA) of at least 2.0 from four general classification of degree courses, namely: Education, Arts and Sciences, Engineering and Agriculture were included. Specific problem No.1 dealt with the profile variables, namely: age, sex, degree course, monthly family income, number of siblings, high school graduated from, grade point average, personality type, highest educational attainment of parents, and occupation of parents. Problem No. 2 determined the critical thinking index among the respondents. Problem No. 3 investigated whether or not there are significant differences in the critical thinking index among the respondents across the profile variables. While problem No.4 determined whether or not there are significant relationship between the critical thinking index and selected profile variables, namely: age, monthly family income, number of siblings, and grade point average of the respondents. Finally, on problem No. 5, the critical thinking instrument which obtained the lowest rates, were used as basis for outlining an intervention program for enhancing critical thinking index (CTI) of students. The following null hypotheses were tested at 0.05 level of significance: there are no significant differences in the critical thinking index of the third college students across the profile variables; there are no significant relationships between the critical thinking index of the respondents and selected variables, namely: age, monthly family income, number of siblings, and grade point average.

Keywords: attitude as critical thinker, critical thinking applied, critical thinking index, self-perception as critical thinker

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Authors: Rania Kassir, Christophe Dos Santos, Halim Abboud, Olivier Godefroy

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The ability to communicate in at least two different languages is shared by a growing number of humans. Recently, many researchers have been studying the elderly bilingual population around the world in neuroscience, and yet, until today there’s no accurate nor universal measure or methodology used to examine bilingualism across these studies which constitute a real challenge for results generalization. This study contributes to the quest of a multidimensional bilingualism index and language proficiency literature by investigating a new bilingualism index from a reliable subjective questionnaire the Language Experience and Proficiency Questionnaire (LEAP-Q), multi-linguistic tests, and a diverse bilingual population all featured in one analysis and one index. One hundred Lebanese subjects aged between 55 and 92 years old divided into three different bilingualism subgroups (Arabic prominent, balanced, and French prominent) were recruited and underwent the LEAP-Q with a set of linguistic and cognitive tests. The analysis of the collected data led to the creation of a robust bilingualism index from speaking and oral understanding scores that underline specifically bilingualism subtype according to cutoffs scored. The practice implications of this index, particularly its use within bilingual populations, are addressed in the conclusion of this work.

Keywords: bilingualism, language dominance, bilingualism index, balanced bilingualism, Arabic first language, Lebanese, Arabic-French bilingualism

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Authors: Emel Yildiz, Nurcan Biçer, Fazilet Aksu, Arash Alizadeh Yegani

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Plants provide the wealth of bioactive compounds, which exert a substantial strategy for the treatment of neurological disorders such as Alzheimer's disease. Recently, a lot of studies have explored the medicinal properties of curcumin, including antitumoral, antimicrobial, anti-inflammatory, antioxidant, antiviral, and anti-Alzheimer's disease effects. Metal complexes of curcumin (1,7-bis(4-hydroxy-3-methoxyphenyl)-1,6-heptadiene-3,5-dione) were synthesized with Mn(II) and Fe(III). The structures of synthesized metal complexes have been characterized by using spectroscopic and analytic methods such as elemental analysis, magnetic susceptibility, FT-IR, AAS, TG and argentometric titration. It was determined that the complexes have octahedral geometry. The effects of the metal complexes on the disorder of memory, which is an important symptom of Alzheimer's Disease were studied on lab rats with Plus-Maze Tests at Behavioral Pharmacology Laboratory.

Keywords: curcumin, Mn(II), Fe(III), Alzheimer disease, beta amyloid 25-35

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Authors: Aftab Ahmed, Ghulam Mehboob

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The object of presentation is to highlight the importance of condition which is a very rare genetic disorder although Paget’s disease is common but its juvenile type is very rare and a late presentation due to very slow onset and lack of earlier standard management. We present a case of 25 years old male with a chronic history of bone pain and a slow onset of mild swelling, later on diagnosed as juvenile Paget disease of bone. Rarity of this condition with inaccessibility for standard health treatment can lead to a significant delay in presentation and its management. There have been 50 reported cases worldwide according to Genetic Home Reference. There is increased osteoclastic activity along with osteoblastic activity related to gene alteration and osteoprotegrin deficiency. Morbidity of disease is very significant which lead children to become immobilize.

Keywords: juvenile, Paget’s disease, bone, Northern Area of Pakistan

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Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

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Obesity is a clinical state associated with low-grade inflammation. It is also a major risk factor for insulin resistance (IR). In its advanced stages, metabolic syndrome (MetS), a much more complicated disease which may lead to life-threatening problems, may develop. Obesity-mediated IR seems to correlate with the inflammation. Human studies performed particularly on pediatric population are scarce. The aim of this study is to detect possible associations between inflammation and IR in terms of some related ratios. 549 children were grouped according to their age- and sex-based body mass index (BMI) percentile tables of WHO. MetS components were determined. Informed consent and approval from the Ethics Committee for Clinical Investigations were obtained. The principles of the Declaration of Helsinki were followed. The exclusion criteria were infection, inflammation, chronic diseases and those under drug treatment. Anthropometric measurements were obtained. Complete blood cell, fasting blood glucose, insulin, and C-reactive protein (CRP) analyses were performed. Homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), systemic immune inflammation (SII) index, tense index, alanine aminotransferase to aspartate aminotransferase ratio (ALT/AST), neutrophils to lymphocyte (NLR), platelet to lymphocyte, and lymphocyte to monocyte ratios were calculated. Data were evaluated by statistical analyses. The degree for statistical significance was 0.05. Statistically significant differences were found among the BMI values of the groups (p < 0.001). Strong correlations were detected between the BMI and waist circumference (WC) values in all groups. Tense index values were also correlated with both BMI and WC values in all groups except overweight (OW) children. SII index values of children with normal BMI were significantly different from the values obtained in OW, obese, morbid obese and MetS groups. Among all the other lymphocyte ratios, NLR exhibited a similar profile. Both HOMA-IR and ALT/AST values displayed an increasing profile from N towards MetS3 group. BMI and WC values were correlated with HOMA-IR and ALT/AST. Both in morbid obese and MetS groups, significant correlations between CRP versus SII index as well as HOMA-IR versus ALT/AST were found. ALT/AST and HOMA-IR values were correlated with NLR in morbid obese group and with SII index in MetS group, (p < 0.05), respectively. In conclusion, these findings showed that some parameters may exhibit informative differences between the early and late stages of obesity. Important associations among HOMA-IR, ALT/AST, NLR and SII index have come to light in the morbid obese and MetS groups. This study introduced the SII index and NLR as important inflammatory markers for the discrimination of normal and obese children. Interesting links were observed between inflammation and IR in morbid obese children and those with MetS, both being late stages of obesity.

Keywords: children, inflammation, insulin resistance, metabolic syndrome, obesity

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Authors: Hoda Zolfagharnejad, Behnam Kamkar, Omid Abdi

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Crop coefficient (Kc) is an important factor contributing to estimation of evapotranspiration, and is also used to determine the irrigation schedule. This study investigated and determined the monthly Kc of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) using five vegetation indices (VIs): Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Difference Vegetation Index (DVI), Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), Infrared Percentage Vegetation Index (IPVI), and Ratio Vegetation Index (RVI) of four basins in Golestan province, Iran. 14 Landsat-8 images according to crop growth stage were used to estimate monthly Kc of wheat. VIs were calculated based on infrared and near infrared bands of Landsat 8 images using Geographical Information System (GIS) software. The best VIs were chosen after establishing a regression relationship among these VIs with FAO Kc and Kc that was modified for the study area by the previous research based on R² and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The result showed that local modified SAVI with R²= 0.767 and RMSE= 0.174 was the best index to produce monthly wheat Kc maps.

Keywords: crop coefficient, remote sensing, vegetation indices, wheat

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Authors: Samira Ghasempourkazemi

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In terms of the COVID-19 pandemic, lots of mutations in the urban system, which have systemic impacts, have clearly appeared. COVID-19 not only had a direct impact on health but also caused significant losses to other departments, including the economy, education, tourism, environment and the construction industry. Therefore, the pandemic caused a disruption in the whole urban system. Particularly, today’s large urban areas are not designed in order to be compatible during a pandemic. Hence, cities are more vulnerable to infectious disease threats according to the population density, built environment and socioeconomic aspects. Considering the direct relationship between population and rate of infection, higher rates are given to those individuals located in areas with high-density populations. Population density can be a factor that seems to have a strong impact on the spread of infectious diseases. Thus, the preliminary hypothesis can be related to a densely populated areas which become hotspots for the rapid spread of the pandemic due to high levels of interaction. In addition, some other indicators can be effective in this condition, such as age range, education and socio-economy. To figure out the measure of infectious disease risk in densely populated areas in Istanbul is an objective of this study. Besides, this study intends to figure out Vulnerability Index in the case of COVID-19. In order to achieve the proper result, the considered method can be Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) by involving the mentioned variables. In the end, the study represents the COVID Vulnerability of densely populated areas in a metro city and the gaps that need to be identified and plugged for the pandemic-resilience city of tomorrow.

Keywords: infectious disease, COVID-19, urban system, densely populated area

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Authors: Amol Lanke, Hadi Hoseinie, Behzad Ghodrati

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OEE has been used in many industries as measure of performance. However due to limitations of original OEE, it has been modified by various researchers. OEE for mining application is special version of classic equation, carries these limitation over. In this paper it has been aimed to modify the OEE for mining application by introducing the weights to the elements of it and termed as Mine Production index (MPi). As a special application of new index MPi shovel has been developed by team of experts and researchers for evaluating the shovel effectiveness. Based on analysis, utilization followed by performance and availability were ranked in this order. To check the applicability of this index, a case study was done on four electrical and one hydraulic shovel in a Swedish mine. The results shows that MPishovelcan properly evaluate production effectiveness of shovels and determine effectiveness values in optimistic view compared to OEE. MPi with calculation not only give the effectiveness but also can predict which elements should be focused for improving the productivity.

Keywords: mining, overall equipment efficiency (OEE), mine production index, shovels

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Authors: Nurudeen Oluwasola Lasisi, Abdulkareem Afolabi Ibrahim

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Newcastle disease is an infection of domestic poultry and other bird species with virulent Newcastle disease virus (NDV). In this paper, we study the dynamics of modeling the Newcastle disease virus (NDV) using a novel quarantine-adjusted incidence. We do a comparison of Vaccination, linear incident rate, and novel quarantine adjusted incident rate in the models. The dynamics of the models yield disease free and endemic equilibrium states. The effective reproduction numbers of the models are computed in order to measure the relative impact for the individual bird or combined intervention for effective disease control. We showed the local and global stability of endemic equilibrium states of the models, and we found that stability of endemic equilibrium states of models are globally asymptotically stable if the effective reproduction numbers of the models equations are greater than a unit.

Keywords: effective reproduction number, endemic state, mathematical model, Newcastle disease virus, novel quarantine-adjusted incidence, stability analysis

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Authors: Mehmet Tahir Dursun, Hilmi Rafet Yüncü

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In social life growing fast, not only people, but also, companies and regions are located in a struggle to provide continuity of life cycles. This struggle brings together an important competitiveness when considering environmental conditions. By emphasizing this point, being able to competitiveness notion comes out as a determiner of the struggle to exist. With the development of technology in tourism industry so as in all branches, it is seen that the companies and regions in different districts are in competitiveness and competitiveness ability is affected in assessing of marketing shares. A condition of competitiveness is to provide sustainability of all structured forms. In addition, environment and sensitiveness of environment are notions affecting directly the competitiveness ability of tourism destinations. It is claimed that providing the sustainability of environment gives competitiveness to tourism destinations. In this study, competitiveness and performances of tourism in Mediterranean countries are going to be compared by examining a variety of indexes related to the sensitiveness of environment. Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Index (T&TCI) (Environmental Sustainability and Natural Resources), Environmental Performance Index (EPI), Ecological Foot Print, Human Development Index (HDI), Climate Risk Index (CRI) will be used in this study. These Index data will be compared with international tourist arrivals, international tourism receives and expenses of per tourist of countries.

Keywords: ecological foot print, environmental performance index, human development index, sustainability, travel and tourism competitiveness index

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Authors: A. Zeynolabedin, M. A. Olyaei, B. Ghiasi

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Drought is an inevitable part of the earth’s climate. It occurs regularly with no clear warning and without recognizing borders. In addition, its impact is cumulative and not immediately discernible. Iran is located in a semi-arid region where droughts occur periodically as natural hazard. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI), and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) are three well-known indices which describe drought severity; each has its own advantages and disadvantages and can be used for specific types of drought. These indices take into account some factors such as precipitation, reservoir storage and discharge, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration in determining drought severity. In this paper, first all three indices are calculated in Aharchay river watershed located in northwestern part of Iran in East Azarbaijan province. Next, based on two other important parameters which are groundwater level and solar radiation, two new indices are defined. Finally, considering all five aforementioned indices, a combined drought index (CDI) is presented and calculated for the region. This combined index is based on all the meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural features of the region. The results show that the most severe drought condition in Aharchay watershed happened in Jun, 2004. The result of this study can be used for monitoring drought and prepare for the drought mitigation planning.

Keywords: drought, GIS, intensity index, regional assessment, variation maps

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Authors: Yahya Ibrahim Harande

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The purpose of this study was to identify the journals that published articles on malaria disease in Africa and to determine the core of productive journals from the identified journals. The data for the study were culled out from African Index Medicus (AIM) database. A total of 529 articles was gathered from 115 journal titles from 1979-2011. In order to obtain the core of productive journals, Bradford`s law was applied to the collected data. Five journal titles were identified and determined as core journals. The data used for the study was analyzed and that, the subject matter used, Malaria was in conformity with the Bradford`s law. On the aspect dispersion of the literature, English was found to be the dominant language of the journals. (80.9%) followed by French (16.5%). Followed by Portuguese (1.7%) and German (0.9%). Recommendation is hereby proposed for the medical libraries to acquire these five journals that constitute the core in malaria literature for the use of their clients. It could also help in streamlining their acquision and selection exercises. More researches in the subject area using Bibliometrics approaches are hereby recommended.

Keywords: productive journals, malaria disease literature, Bradford`s law, core journals, African scholars

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Authors: Faiz N. K. Yusufi, Aquil Ahmed, Jamal Ahmad

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Diabetes in India is growing at an alarming rate and the complications caused by it need to be controlled. Coronary heart disease (CHD) is one of the complications that will be discussed for prediction in this study. India has the second most number of diabetes patients in the world. To the best of our knowledge, there is no CHD risk score for Indian type 2 diabetes patients. Any form of CHD has been taken as the event of interest. A sample of 750 was determined and randomly collected from the Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Diabetes and Endocrinology, J.N.M.C., A.M.U., Aligarh, India. Collected variables include patients data such as sex, age, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), blood sugar fasting (BSF), post prandial sugar (PP), glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking, alcohol habits, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein (HDL), low density lipoprotein (LDL), very low density lipoprotein (VLDL), physical activity, duration of diabetes, diet control, history of antihypertensive drug treatment, family history of diabetes, waist circumference, hip circumference, medications, central obesity and history of CHD. Predictive risk scores of CHD events are designed by cox proportional hazard regression. Model calibration and discrimination is assessed from Hosmer Lemeshow and area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Overfitting and underfitting of the model is checked by applying regularization techniques and best method is selected between ridge, lasso and elastic net regression. Youden’s index is used to choose the optimal cut off point from the scores. Five year probability of CHD is predicted by both survival function and Markov chain two state model and the better technique is concluded. The risk scores for CHD developed can be calculated by doctors and patients for self-control of diabetes. Furthermore, the five-year probabilities can be implemented as well to forecast and maintain the condition of patients.

Keywords: coronary heart disease, cox proportional hazard regression, ROC curve, type 2 diabetes Mellitus

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Authors: S. Al-Sowayan

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The impact of selective excitation of circular helical modes of graded-index fibers on its capacity is analyzed using a model for propagation delay variation with launch offset and angle that resulted from misalignment of source and fiber axis. Results show that promising technique to improve graded-index fiber capacities.

Keywords: fiber measurements, fiber optic, communications, circular helical modes

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Authors: Dipanshu Sur, Ratnabali Chakravorty, Rimi Pal, Siddhartha Chatterjee, Joyshree Chaterjee, Amal Mallik

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Background: Women with polycystic ovary disease (PCOD) frequently suffer from metabolic disturbances. PCOD is a common ovulatory disorder in young women, which affects 5-10% of the population and results in infertility due to anovulation. Importantly, aromatase in ovarian granulosa and luteinized granulosa cells plays an important role for women of reproductive age. Generation and metabolism of androgen is directly related to aromatase activity. The E2/T ratio provides important information about aromatase activity because conversion of androgens to estrogens is mediated by CYP19, suggesting that the E2/T ratio may be a direct marker of aromatase activity. The nature of the interaction between ovarian aromatase activity and PCOD in women has been controversial, and the impact of weight gain on aromatase activity as well as E2 levels is unknown. Aim: The objective of this study was to investigate the association and relation between aromatase activity and levels of body mass index (BMI) from a reproductive hormone perspective in a group of women with or without PCOD. Methods: We designed a cohort study which included 200 individuals. It enrolled 100 cases of PCOD based on 2006 Rotterdam criteria and 100 ovulatory normal- non PCOD, healthy, age-matched controls. Plasma sex hormones viz. estradiol (E2), testosterone (T), follicle stimulating hormone (FSH), and luteinizing hormone (LH) were measured by ELISA on the second day of the menstrual cycle, together with BMI and E2/T were calculated. Aromatase activity in PCOD patients with different BMI, T and E2 levels were compared. Results: PCOD patients showed significantly increased levels of BMI, E2 (P=0.004), T and LH, while their E2/T (P= <0.001), FSH and FSH/LH values were decreased compared with the control group. Higher E2 levels correlated with a relatively enhanced E2/T as well as T and LH levels but reduced BMI, FSH and FSH/LH levels in women with PCOD. Hyperandrogenic PCOD patients had increased E2 levels but their aromatase activity was markedly inhibited independent of their BMI values. Conclusions: We found a significant decrease of ovarian aromatase activity in women with PCOD as compared to controls. Our study showed that ovarian aromatase activity in PCOD was decreased which was independent of BMI. Enhancing aromatase activity may become an optimized strategy for developing therapies for PCOD women, especially those with obesity.

Keywords: aromatase activity, polycystic ovary disease, obesity, body mass index

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Authors: B. Prashantha, S. Anish

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The aim of the present study is to computationally evaluate the hemodynamic factors which affect the formation of atherosclerosis and plaque rupture in the human artery. An increase of atherosclerosis disease in the artery causes geometry changes, which results in hemodynamic changes such as flow separation, reattachment, and adhesion of new cells (chemotactic) in the artery. Hence, geometry plays an important role in the determining the nature of hemodynamic patterns. Influence of stenosis in the non-bifurcating artery, under pulsatile flow condition, has been studied on an idealized geometry. Analysis of flow through symmetric and asymmetric stenosis in the artery revealed the significance of oscillating shear index (OSI), flow separation, low WSS zones and secondary flow patterns on plaque formation. The observed characteristic of flow in the post-stenotic region highlight the importance of plaque eccentricity on the formation of secondary stenosis on the arterial wall.

Keywords: atherosclerotic plaque, oscillatory shear index, stenosis nature, wall shear stress

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Authors: Nepton Kiani

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Dental decay is one of the most common chronic diseases worldwide and imposes significant costs annually on people and healthcare systems. Addressing this issue is among the important programs of the World Health Organization in the field of oral and dental disease prevention and health promotion. In this context, oral and dental health in vulnerable groups, especially pregnant women, is of greater importance due to the health maintenance of the mother and fetus. The aim of this study is to investigate the DMFT index and various factors affecting it in order to identify different factors influencing the process of dental decay and to take an effective step in reducing the progression of this disease, control, and prevention. In this cross-sectional descriptive study, 120 pregnant women attending Nepton Policlinica clinic in Malaga, Spain, were evaluated for the DMFT index and oral and dental hygiene. In this regard, interviews, precise observations, and data collection were used. Subsequently, data analysis was performed using SPSS software and employing correlation tests, Kruskal-Wallis, and Mann-Whitney tests. The DMFT index for pregnant women in three age groups 22-26, 27- 31, and 32-36 years was respectively 2.8, 4.5, and 5.6. The results of logistic regression analysis showed that demographic variables (age, education, job, economic status) and the frequency of brushing and flossing lead to preventive behavior up to 49.58 percent (P<0.05). Generally, the results indicated that oral and dental care during pregnancy is poor. Only a small number of pregnant women regularly used toothbrush and dental floss or visited the dentist regularly. On the other hand, poor performance in adopting oral and dental care was more observed in pregnant women with lower economic and educational status. The present study showed that raising the level of awareness and education on oral and dental health in pregnant women is essential. In this field, it is necessary to focus on conducting educational-care courses at the level of healthcare centers for midwives, healthcare personnel, and at the community level for families, to prevent and perform dental treatments before the pregnancy period

Keywords: Malaga, oral and dental health, pregnant women, Spain

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Authors: Anum Akhter, Sumaira Altaf

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Purpose: To study the effect of low vision devices i.e. telescope and magnifying glasses on distance visual acuity and near visual acuity of children with Stargardt’s disease. Setting: Low vision department, Alshifa Trust Eye Hospital, Rawalpindi, Pakistan. Methods: 52 children having Stargardt’s disease were included in the study. All children were diagnosed by pediatrics ophthalmologists. Comprehensive low vision assessment was done by me in Low vision clinic. Visual acuity was measured using ETDRS chart. Refraction and other supplementary tests were performed. Children with Stargardt’s disease were provided with different telescopes and magnifying glasses for improving far vision and near vision. Results: Out of 52 children, 17 children were males and 35 children were females. Distance visual acuity and near visual acuity improved significantly with low vision aid trial. All children showed visual acuity better than 6/19 with a telescope of higher magnification. Improvement in near visual acuity was also significant with magnifying glasses trial. Conclusions: Low vision aids are useful for improvement in visual acuity in children. Children with Stargardt’s disease who are having a problem in education and daily life activities can get help from low vision aids.

Keywords: Stargardt, s disease, low vision aids, telescope, magnifiers

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Authors: Yuliani Aisyah, Sri Haryani, Novi Safriani

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Nutmeg oil is one of the essential oils that have the ability as an antibacterial so it potentially uses to inhibit the growth of undesirable microbes in food. However, the essential oil that has low solubility in water, high volatile content, and strong aroma properties is difficult to apply in to foodstuffs. Therefore, the oil-in-water nanoemulsion system was used in this research. Gelatin, lecithin and tween 80 with 10%, 20%, 30% concentrations have been examined for the preparation of nutmeg oil nanoemulsions. The physicochemical properties and stability of nutmeg oil nanoemulsion were analyzed on viscosity, creaming index, emulsifying activity, droplet size, and polydispersity index. The results showed that the type and concentration stabilizer had a significant effect on viscosity, creaming index, droplet size and polydispersity index (P ≤ 0,01). The nanoemulsions stabilized with tween 80 had the best stability because the creaming index value was 0%, the emulsifying activity value was 100%, the droplet size was small (79 nm) and the polydispersity index was low (0.10) compared to the nanoemulsions stabilized with gelatin and lecithin. In brief, Tween 80 is strongly recommended to be used for stabilizing nutmeg oil nanoemulsions.

Keywords: nanoemulsion, nutmeg oil, stabilizer, stability

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Authors: K. Assis, K. P. Chong, A. S. Idris, C. M. Ho

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Oil palm or Elaeis guineensis is considered as the golden crop in Malaysia. But oil palm industry in this country is now facing with the most devastating disease called as Ganoderma Basal Stem Rot disease. The objective of this paper is to analyze the economic loss due to this disease. There were three commercial oil palm sites selected for collecting the required data for economic analysis. Yield parameter used to measure the loss was the total weight of fresh fruit bunch in six months. The predictors include disease severity, change in disease severity, number of infected neighbor palms, age of palm, planting generation, topography, and first order interaction variables. The estimation model of yield loss was identified by using backward elimination based regression method. Diagnostic checking was conducted on the residual of the best yield loss model. The value of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was used to measure the forecast performance of the model. The best yield loss model was then used to estimate the economic loss by using the current monthly price of fresh fruit bunch at mill gate.

Keywords: ganoderma, oil palm, regression model, yield loss, economic loss

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Authors: Joseph Siani

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Over the last decades, dissatisfaction with global indicators of economic performance, such as GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per capita, has shifted the attention to what is now referred to as multidimensional poverty. In this framework, poverty goes beyond income to incorporate aspects of well-being not captured by income measures alone. This paper applies the totally fuzzy approach to estimate the fuzzy index of poverty (FIP) in fourteen Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries using Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data and explores whether pictures created by the standard headcount ratio at $1.90 a day and the fuzzy index of poverty tell a similar story. The results suggest that there is indeed considerable mismatch between poverty headcount and the fuzzy index of multidimensional poverty, meaning that the majority of the most deprived people (as identified by the fuzzy index of multidimensional poverty) would not be identified by the poverty headcount ratio. Moreover, we find that poverty is distributed differently by colonial heritage (language). In particular, the most deprived countries in SSA are French-speaking.

Keywords: fuzzy set approach, multidimensional poverty, poverty headcount, overlap, Sub-Saharan Africa

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Authors: Temosho Promise Chuene, T. Chitura

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Background: Foot and mouth disease is a real challenge in South Africa. The disease is a serious threat to the viability of livestock farming initiatives and affects local and international livestock trade. In Limpopo Province, the Kruger National Park and other game reserves are home to the African buffalo (Syncerus caffer), a notorious reservoir of the picornavirus, which causes foot and mouth disease. Out of the virus’s seven (7) distinct serotypes, Southern African Territories (SAT) 1, 2, and 3 are commonly endemic in South Africa. The broad objective of the study was to establish the trend of foot and mouth disease in Limpopo Province over a seven-year period (2014-2020), as well as the adoption and comprehensive reporting of the measures that are taken to contain disease outbreaks in the study area. Methods: The study used secondary data from the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) on reported cases of foot and mouth disease in South Africa. Descriptive analysis (frequencies and percentages) and Analysis of variance (ANOVA) were used to present and analyse the data. Result: The year 2020 had the highest prevalence of foot and mouth disease (3.72%), while 2016 had the lowest prevalence (0.05%). Serotype SAT 2 was the most endemic, followed by SAT 1. Findings from the study demonstrated the seasonal nature of foot and mouth disease in the study area, as most disease cases were reported in the summer seasons. Slaughter of diseased and at-risk animals was the only documented disease control strategy, and information was missing for some of the years. Conclusion: The study identified serious underreporting of the adopted control strategies following disease outbreaks. Adoption of comprehensive disease control strategies coupled with thorough reporting can help to reduce outbreaks of foot and mouth disease and prevent losses to the livestock farming sector of South Africa and Limpopo Province in particular.

Keywords: livestock farming, African buffalo, prevalence, serotype, slaughter

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Authors: Hamdy Khamis Korayem, Manal Yehia Tayel, Abeer Shawky El Hadedy, Emmanuel Kamal Aziz Saba, Shimaa Badr Abdelnaby Badr

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The aim of the current study was to demonstrate whether serum Interleukin-18 (IL-18) is increased in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and its correlation with disease activity, functional disability and quality of life in RA patients. The study included 30 RA patients and 20 healthy normal control subjects. The RA patients were diagnosed according to the 2010 ACR/EULAR classification criteria for RA with the exclusion of those who had diabetes mellitus, endocrine disorders, associated rheumatologic diseases, viral hepatitis B or C and other diseases with increased serum IL-18 level. All patients were subjected to clinical evaluation of the musculoskeletal system. Disease activity was assessed by disease activity score 28 with 4 variables (DAS 28). Functional disability was assessed by health assessment questionnaire disability index (HAQ-DI). The quality of life was assessed by Short form-36 (SF-36) questionnaire. Radiological assessment of both hands and feet by Sharp/van der Heijde (SvH) scoring method. Laboratory parameters including erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), C-reactive protein (CRP), rheumatoid factor (RF) and anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide antibody (ACPA) were assessed in patients and serum level of IL-18 in both patients and control subjects. There was no statistically significant difference between patient and control group as regards age and sex. Among patients, 29 % were females and the age range was between 25 to 55 years. Extra-articular manifestations were presented in 56.7% of the patients. The mean of DAS 28 score was 5.73±1.46 and that of HAQ-DI was 1.22±0.72 while that of SF-36 was 40.03±13.96. The level of serum IL-18 was significantly higher in patients than in the control subjects (P= 0.030). Serum IL-18 was correlated with ACPA among the patient group. There were no statistically significant correlations between serum IL-18 and DAS28, HAQ-DI, SF-36, total SvH score and the other laboratory results. In conclusion, IL-18 is significantly higher in RA patient than in healthy control subjects and positively correlated with ACPA level. IL-18 is associated with extra-articular manifestations. However, it is not correlated with other laboratory parameters, disease activity, functional disability, quality of life nor radiological severity.

Keywords: disease activity score, Interleukin-18, quality of life assessment, rheumatoid arthritis

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