Search results for: estimation of future gas reserves

Authors: Yuna Lee

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In the current policy process, there has been a growing interest in more open approaches that incorporate creativity and innovation based on the forecasting groups composed by the public and experts together into scientific data-driven foresight methods to implement more effective policymaking. Especially, citizen participation as collective intelligence in policymaking with design and deep scale of innovation at the global level has been developed and human-centred design thinking is considered as one of the most promising methods for strategic foresight. Yet, there is a lack of a common theoretical foundation for a comprehensive approach for the current situation of and post-COVID-19 era, and substantial changes in policymaking practice are insignificant and ongoing with trial and error. This project hypothesized that rigorously developed policy systems and tools that support strategic foresight by considering the public understanding could maximize ways to create new possibilities for a preferable future, however, it must involve a better understating of Behavioural Insights, including individual and cultural values, profit motives and needs, and psychological motivations, for implementing holistic and multilateral foresight and creating more positive possibilities. To what extent is the policymaking system theoretically possible that incorporates the holistic and comprehensive foresight and policy process implementation, assuming that theory and practice, in reality, are different and not connected? What components and environmental conditions should be included in the strategic foresight system to enhance the capacity of decision from policymakers to predict alternative futures, or detect uncertainties of the future more accurately? And, compared to the required environmental condition, what are the environmental vulnerabilities of the current policymaking system? In this light, this research contemplates the question of how effectively policymaking practices have been implemented through the synthesis of scientific, technology-oriented innovation with the strategic design for tackling complex societal challenges and devising more significant insights to make society greener and more liveable. Here, this study conceptualizes the notions of a new collaborative way of strategic foresight that aims to maximize mutual benefits between policy actors and citizens through the cooperation stemming from evolutionary game theory. This study applies mixed methodology, including interviews of policy experts, with the case in which digital transformation and strategic design provided future-oriented solutions or directions to cities’ sustainable development goals and society-wide urgent challenges such as COVID-19. As a result, artistic and sensual interpreting capabilities through strategic design promote a concrete form of ideas toward a stable connection from the present to the future and enhance the understanding and active cooperation among decision-makers, stakeholders, and citizens. Ultimately, an improved theoretical foundation proposed in this study is expected to help strategically respond to the highly interconnected future changes of the post-COVID-19 world.

Keywords: policymaking, strategic design, sustainable innovation, evolution of cooperation

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Authors: Shayla He

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Background and Purpose: According to Chamie (2017), it’s estimated that no less than 150 million people, or about 2 percent of the world’s population, are homeless. The homeless population in the United States has grown rapidly in the past four decades. In New York City, the sheltered homeless population has increased from 12,830 in 1983 to 62,679 in 2020. Knowing the trend on the homeless population is crucial at helping the states and the cities make affordable housing plans, and other community service plans ahead of time to better prepare for the situation. This study utilized the data from New York City, examined the key factors associated with the homelessness, and developed systematic modeling to predict homeless populations of the future. Using the best model developed, named HP-RNN, an analysis on the homeless population change during the months of 2020 and 2021, which were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, was conducted. Moreover, HP-RNN was tested on the data from Seattle. Methods: The methodology involves four phases in developing robust prediction methods. Phase 1 gathered and analyzed raw data of homeless population and demographic conditions from five urban centers. Phase 2 identified the key factors that contribute to the rate of homelessness. In Phase 3, three models were built using Linear Regression, Random Forest, and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), respectively, to predict the future trend of society's homeless population. Each model was trained and tuned based on the dataset from New York City for its accuracy measured by Mean Squared Error (MSE). In Phase 4, the final phase, the best model from Phase 3 was evaluated using the data from Seattle that was not part of the model training and tuning process in Phase 3. Results: Compared to the Linear Regression based model used by HUD et al (2019), HP-RNN significantly improved the prediction metrics of Coefficient of Determination (R2) from -11.73 to 0.88 and MSE by 99%. HP-RNN was then validated on the data from Seattle, WA, which showed a peak %error of 14.5% between the actual and the predicted count. Finally, the modeling results were collected to predict the trend during the COVID-19 pandemic. It shows a good correlation between the actual and the predicted homeless population, with the peak %error less than 8.6%. Conclusions and Implications: This work is the first work to apply RNN to model the time series of the homeless related data. The Model shows a close correlation between the actual and the predicted homeless population. There are two major implications of this result. First, the model can be used to predict the homeless population for the next several years, and the prediction can help the states and the cities plan ahead on affordable housing allocation and other community service to better prepare for the future. Moreover, this prediction can serve as a reference to policy makers and legislators as they seek to make changes that may impact the factors closely associated with the future homeless population trend.

Keywords: homeless, prediction, model, RNN

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Authors: Khaled M. El Naggar

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This paper introduces a digital method for fault section identification in transmission lines. The method uses digital set of the measured short circuit current to locate faults in electrical power systems. The digitized current is used to construct a set of overdetermined system of equations. The problem is then constructed and solved using the proposed digital optimization technique to find the fault distance. The proposed optimization methodology is an application of simulated annealing optimization technique. The method is tested using practical case study to evaluate the proposed method. The accurate results obtained show that the algorithm can be used as a powerful tool in the area of power system protection.

Keywords: optimization, estimation, faults, measurement, high voltage, simulated annealing

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Authors: Tathagatha Khan, Smruti Sourava Mohapatra

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Median openings are provided in raised median of multilane roads to facilitate U-turn movement. The U-turn movement is a highly complex and risky maneuver because U-turning vehicle (minor stream) makes 180° turns at median openings and merge with the approaching through traffic (major stream). A U-turning vehicle requires a suitable gap in the major stream to merge, and during this process, the possibility of merging conflict develops. Therefore, these median openings are potential hot spot of conflict and posses concern pertaining to safety. The traffic at the median openings could be managed efficiently with enhanced safety when the capacity of a traffic facility has been estimated correctly. The capacity of U-turns at median openings is estimated by Harder’s formula, which requires three basic parameters namely critical gap, follow up time and conflict flow rate. The estimation of conflicting flow rate under mixed traffic condition is very much complicated due to absence of lane discipline and discourteous behavior of the drivers. The understanding of placement of major stream vehicles at median opening is very much important for the estimation of conflicting traffic faced by U-turning movement. The placement data of major stream vehicles at different section in 4-lane and 6-lane divided multilane roads were collected. All the test sections were free from the effect of intersection, bus stop, parked vehicles, curvature, pedestrian movements or any other side friction. For the purpose of analysis, all the vehicles were divided into 6 categories such as motorized 2W, autorickshaw (3-W), small car, big car, light commercial vehicle, and heavy vehicle. For the collection of placement data of major stream vehicles, the entire road width was divided into sections of 25 cm each and these were numbered seriatim from the pavement edge (curbside) to the end of the road. The placement major stream vehicle crossing the reference line was recorded by video graphic technique on various weekdays. The collected data for individual category of vehicles at all the test sections were converted into a frequency table with a class interval of 25 cm each and the placement frequency curve. Separate distribution fittings were tried for 4- lane and 6-lane divided roads. The variation of major stream traffic volume on the placement characteristics of major stream vehicles has also been explored. The findings of this study will be helpful to determine the conflict volume at the median openings. So, the present work holds significance in traffic planning, operation and design to alleviate the bottleneck, prospect of collision and delay at median opening in general and at median opening in developing countries in particular.

Keywords: median opening, U-turn, conflicting traffic, placement, mixed traffic

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Authors: Bakr Zade, Paolo Cervera

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With the aim of maximising return on innovation investments, organisations create central units to support successful implementation of innovation management initiatives. The support units–referred to in this research as innovation management offices (IMOs)–range from small teams of innovation management champions to fully resourced centres of excellence for innovation management. However, roles and responsibilities of IMOs vary in different organisations. This research investigates the different types of IMO in organisations, based on their different roles and responsibilities in supporting innovation management processes. The research uses grounded theory methodology to uncover an IMO taxonomy from emergent concepts during innovation management maturity assessment exercises in twelve organisations from the United Kingdom and the United Arab Emirates. The taxonomy distinguishes five types of IMO, based on their roles and responsibilities in supporting innovation management processes, from organisational strategic foresight to managing innovation management project portfolios. The IMO taxonomy addresses a gap in research into innovation management support in organisations and offers a practical framework that diverse organisations can appreciate and use in designing IMOs that are aligned with their innovation management visions and strategies.

Keywords: future foresight, future shaping, innovation management, innovation management office, portfolio management

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Authors: Reza Bazargan lari, Mohammad H. Fattahi

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Natural resources management including water resources requires reliable estimations of time variant environmental parameters. Small improvements in the estimation of environmental parameters would result in grate effects on managing decisions. Noise reduction using wavelet techniques is an effective approach for pre-processing of practical data sets. Predictability enhancement of the river flow time series are assessed using fractal approaches before and after applying wavelet based pre-processing. Time series correlation and persistency, the minimum sufficient length for training the predicting model and the maximum valid length of predictions were also investigated through a fractal assessment.

Keywords: wavelet, de-noising, predictability, time series fractal analysis, valid length, ANN

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Authors: Norul Husna A. Kasim, Siva K. Balasundram

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The gap between ‘actual yield’ and ‘potential yield’ has remained a problem in the Malaysian oil palm industry. Ineffective maturity assessment and untimely harvesting have compounded this problem. Typically, the traditional method of palm oil quality and yield assessment is destructive, costly and laborious. Fluorescence-sensing offers a new means of assessing palm oil quality and yield non-destructively. This work describes the estimation of palm oil quality and yield using a multi-parametric fluorescence sensor (Multiplex®) to quantify the concentration of secondary metabolites, such as anthocyanin and flavonoid, in fresh fruit bunches across three different palm ages (6, 9, and 12 years-old). Results show that fluorescence sensing is an effective means of assessing FFB maturity, in terms of palm oil quality and yield quantifications.

Keywords: anthocyanin, flavonoid fluorescence sensor, palm oil yield and quality

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Authors: Chun-Chuan Yang, Jeng-Yueng Chen, Yi-Ting Mai, Chen-Ming Yang

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In this paper, the design of integrated sleep scheduling for relay nodes and user equipments under a Donor eNB (DeNB) in the mode of Time Division Duplex (TDD) in LTE-A is presented. The idea of virtual time is proposed to deal with the discontinuous pattern of the available radio resource in TDD, and based on the estimation of the traffic load, three power saving schemes in the top-down strategy are presented. Associated mechanisms in each scheme including calculation of the virtual subframe capacity, the algorithm of integrated sleep scheduling, and the mapping mechanisms for the backhaul link and the access link are presented in the paper. Simulation study shows the advantage of the proposed schemes in energy saving over the standard DRX scheme.

Keywords: LTE-A, relay, TDD, power saving

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility

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Authors: Andrey V. Timofeev, Viktor M. Denisov

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A robust sequential nonparametric method is proposed for adaptation to background noise parameters for real-time. The distribution of background noise was modelled like to Huber contamination mixture. The method is designed to operate as an adaptation-unit, which is included inside a detection subsystem of an integrated multichannel monitoring system. The proposed method guarantees the given size of a nonasymptotic confidence set for noise parameters. Properties of the suggested method are rigorously proved. The proposed algorithm has been successfully tested in real conditions of a functioning C-OTDR monitoring system, which was designed to monitor railways.

Keywords: guaranteed estimation, multichannel monitoring systems, non-asymptotic confidence set, contamination mixture

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Authors: Dermot O'Brien, Vasileios Christaras, Georgios Fontaras, Igor Nai Fovino, Ioannis Kounelis

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With the rise of the Internet of Things (IoT), 5G, and blockchain (BC) technologies, vehicles are becoming ever increasingly connected and are already transmitting substantial amounts of data to the original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) servers. This data could be used to help detect mileage fraud and enable more accurate vehicle emissions monitoring. This would not only help regulators but could enable applications such as permitting efficient drivers to pay less tax, geofencing for air quality improvement, as well as pollution tolling and trading platforms for transport-related businesses and EU citizens. Other applications could include traffic management and shared mobility systems. BC enables the transmission of data with additional security and removes single points of failure while maintaining data provenance, identity ownership, and the possibility to retain varying levels of privacy depending on the requirements of the applied use case. This research performs simulations of vehicles interacting with European member state authorities and European Commission BC nodes that are running hyperleger fabric and explores whether the technology is currently feasible for transport applications such as the emission monitoring use-case.

Keywords: future transportation systems, technological innovations, policy approaches for transportation future, economic and regulatory trends, blockchain

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Authors: Wenwen Liu, Robert Burton, Simon McKeown

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Climate change is seriously threatening human security and development, leading to global warming and economic, political, and social chaos. Many artists have created visual responses that challenge perceptions on climate change, actively guiding people to think about the climate issues and potential crises after urban industrialization and explore positive solutions. This project is an interdisciplinary and intertextual study where art practice is informed by culture, philosophy, psychology, ecology, and science. By correlating theory and artistic practice, it studies how art practice creates a new way of understanding climate issues and uses art as a way of exploring speculative futures. In the context of practical-based research, arts-based practice as research and creative practice as interdisciplinary research are applied alternately to seek the original solution and new knowledge. Through creative art practice, this project has established new visual ways of looking at climate change and has developed it into a new model to generate more possibilities, an alternative social imagination. It not only encourages people to think and find a sustainable speculative future conducive to all species but also proves that people have the ability to realize positive futures.

Keywords: climate change, creative practice as interdisciplinary research, arts-based practice as research, creative art practice, speculative future

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Authors: Siti Nurhidayah Naqiah Abdull Rani, Herlina Abdul Rahim

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Near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy has always been of great interest in the food and agriculture industries. The development of predictive models has facilitated the estimation process in recent years. In this research, 176 crude palm oil (CPO) samples acquired from Felda Johor Bulker Sdn Bhd were studied. A FOSS NIRSystem was used to tak e absorbance measurements from the sample. The wavelength range for the spectral measurement is taken at 1600nm to 1900nm. Partial Least Square Regression (PLSR) prediction model with 50 optimal number of principal components was implemented to study the relationship between the measured Free Fatty Acid (FFA) values and the measured spectral absorption. PLSR showed predictive ability of FFA values with correlative coefficient (R) of 0.9808 for the training set and 0.9684 for the testing set.

Keywords: palm oil, fatty acid, NIRS, PLSR

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Authors: Frederico Fialho Teixeira, Islam Mashaly, Maryam Shafiei, Jurij Karlovsek

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The ubiquity of data gathering and smart technologies, advancements in virtual technologies, and the development of the internet of things (IoT) have created urgent demands for the development of frameworks and efficient workflows for data collection, visualisation, and analysis. Digital twin, in different scales of the city into the building, allows for bringing together data from different sources to generate fundamental and illuminating insights for the management of current facilities and the lifecycle of amenities as well as improvement of the performance of current and future designs. Over the past two decades, there has been growing interest in the topic of digital twin and their applications in city and building scales. Most such studies look at the urban environment through a homogeneous or generalist lens and lack specificity in particular characteristics or identities, which define an urban university campus. Bridging this knowledge gap, this paper offers a framework for developing a digital twin for a university campus that, with some modifications, could provide insights for any large-scale digital twin settings like towns and cities. It showcases how currently unused data could be purposefully combined, interpolated and visualised for producing analysis-ready data (such as flood or energy simulations or functional and occupancy maps), highlighting the potential applications of such a framework for campus planning and policymaking. The research integrates campus-level data layers into one spatial information repository and casts light on critical data clusters for the digital twin at the campus level. The paper also seeks to raise insightful and directive questions on how digital twin for campus can be extrapolated to city-scale digital twin. The outcomes of the paper, thus, inform future projects for the development of large-scale digital twin as well as urban and architectural researchers on potential applications of digital twin in future design, management, and sustainable planning, to predict problems, calculate risks, decrease management costs, and improve performance.

Keywords: digital twin, smart campus, framework, data collection, point cloud

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Authors: P. K. Guha Thakurta, Shouvik Roy, Bhawana Raj

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A congestion control scheme in mobile networks is proposed in this paper through a verification based model. The model proposed in this work is represented through performance metric like buffer Occupancy, latency and packet loss rate. Based on pre-defined values, each of the metric is introduced in terms of three different states. A Markov chain based model for the proposed work is introduced to monitor the occurrence of the corresponding state transitions. Thus, the estimation of the network status is obtained in terms of performance metric. In addition, the improved performance of our proposed model over existing works is shown with experimental results.

Keywords: congestion, mobile networks, buffer, delay, call drop, markov chain

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Authors: Simon Ingelsten, Anton Lundberg, Vijay Shankar, Lars-Olof Landström, Örjan Johansson

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The flow in a low consistency disc refiner is simulated with the aim of identifying flow structures possibly being of importance for a future study to optimise the energy efficiency in refining processes. A simplified flow geometry is used, where a single groove of a refiner disc is modelled. Two different fibre models are used to simulate turbulent fibre suspension flow in the groove. The first model is a Bingham viscoplastic fluid model where the fibre suspension is treated as a non-Newtonian fluid with a yield stress. The second model is a new model proposed in a recent study where the suspended fibres effect on flow is accounted for through a modelled orientation distribution function (ODF). Both models yielded similar results with small differences. Certain flow characteristics that were expected and that was found in the literature were identified. Some of these flow characteristics may be of importance in a future process to optimise the refiner geometry to increase the energy efficiency. Further study and a more detailed flow model is; however, needed in order for the simulations to yield results valid for quantitative use in such an optimisation study. An outline of the next steps in such a study is proposed.

Keywords: disc refiner, fibre flow, sustainability, turbulence modelling

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Authors: Divvela Vishnu Sai Kumar, Deepak Arora, Sheenu Rizvi

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Forecasting a cyclone through satellite images consists of the estimation of the intensity of the cyclone and predicting it before a cyclone comes. This research work can help people to take safety measures before the cyclone comes. The prediction of the intensity of a cyclone is very important to save lives and minimize the damage caused by cyclones. These cyclones are very costliest natural disasters that cause a lot of damage globally due to a lot of hazards. Authors have proposed five different CNN (Convolutional Neural Network) models that estimate the intensity of cyclones through INSAT-3D IR images. There are a lot of techniques that are used to estimate the intensity; the best model proposed by authors estimates intensity with a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 10.02 kts.

Keywords: estimating cyclone intensity, deep learning, convolution neural network, prediction models

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Authors: Feby Zaki Raouf Fawzy

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Nowadays, design and architecture are being affected and undergoing change with the rapid advancements in technology, economics, politics, society, and culture. Architecture has been transforming with the latest developments after the inclusion of computers in design. Integration of design into the computational environment has revolutionized architecture and unique perspectives in architecture have been gained. The history of architecture shows the various technological developments and changes in which architecture has transformed with time. Therefore, the analysis of integration between technology and the history of the architectural process makes it possible to build a consensus on the idea of how architecture is to proceed. In this study, each period that occurs with the integration of technology into architecture is addressed within the historical process. At the same time, changes in architecture via technology are identified as important milestones and predictions with regards to the future of architecture have been determined. Developments and changes in technology and the use of technology in architecture within years are analyzed in charts and graphs comparatively. The historical process of architecture and its transformation via technology is supported by a detailed literature review, and they are consolidated with the examination of focal points of 20th-century architecture under the titles parametric design, genetic architecture, simulation, and biomimicry. It is concluded that with the historical research between past and present, the developments in architecture cannot keep up with the advancements in technology, and recent developments in technology overshadow architecture; even technology decides the direction of architecture. As a result, a scenario is presented with regard to the reach of technology in the future of architecture and the role of the architect.

Keywords: design and development the information technology architecture, enterprise architecture, enterprise architecture design result, TOGAF architecture development method (ADM)

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Authors: Maciej Dudek, Robert Kruszewski, Janusz Kudla, Konrad Walczyk

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In this paper, we study how taxation of bequests affects human capital formation in the long term and short term horizon. Our underlying model is an overlapping generation model (OLG) with some degree of altruism on the part of the ancestors' generation towards their descendants. We ask the question in three separate frameworks. First, we study a simple one-sector model where a proxy of human capital is wage income. It the steady-state -for CRRA utility function and human capital produced with non-decreasing returns -the taxation of bequests is neutral to the accumulation of human capital. In the second framework, neutrality applies to the growth rates of human capital, physical capital, and consumption. In this case, taxation increases the level of bequests, leading to a lower value of current consumption. Finally in we consider two periods model instead of infinite horizon model as long as the tax revenue is at least partially rebated back to the public, the fraction of human capital engaged in the process of formation of human capital increases with the tax rate on bequests. In other words, taxation of bequests is partially offset by an increase in human capital formation. Higher human capital allows the future generation to earn higher wages, and today's generation can find it optimal to endow the future generation with more human capital when taxation is imposed on physical capital transferred to the next generation.

Keywords: taxation, bequests, policy, human capital

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Authors: Srikanth Pandurangi, Basheer Mohammed, Nezar Al Sayegh

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In order to meet the increasing demand for housing care for Kuwaiti citizens, the government authorities in Kuwait are undertaking a series of projects in the form of new large cities, outside the current urban area. Al Mutlaa City located to the north-west of the Kuwait Metropolitan Area is one such project out of the 15 planned new cities. The city accommodates a wide variety of residential developments, employment opportunities, commercial, recreational, health care and institutional uses. This paper examines the application of comprehensive transportation demand modeling works undertaken in VISUM platform to understand the future intracity and intercity travel distribution patterns in Kuwait. The scope of models developed varied in levels of detail: strategic model update, sub-area models representing future demand of Al Mutlaa City, sub-area models built to estimate the demand in the residential neighborhoods of the city. This paper aims at offering model update framework that facilitates easy integration between sub-area models and strategic national models for unified traffic forecasts. This paper presents the transportation demand modeling results utilized in informing the planning of multi-modal transportation system for Al Mutlaa City. This paper also presents the household survey data collection efforts undertaken using GPS devices (first time in Kuwait) and notebook computer based digital survey forms for interviewing representative sample of citizens and residents. The survey results formed the basis of estimating trip generation rates and trip distribution coefficients used in the strategic base year model calibration and validation process.

Keywords: innovative methods in transportation data collection, integrated public transportation system, traffic forecasts, transportation modeling, travel behavior

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Authors: Chung-Hao Wu, Tung-Dju Lin, Ming-Chin Ho, Minehiro Nishiyama

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This paper discusses reported fire tests of concrete beams and columns, future fire tests of beam/column frames, and an innovative concept for designing a beam/column furnace. The proposed furnace could be designed to maximize the efficiency of fire test procedures and minimize the cost of furnace construction and fuel consumption. ASTM E119 and ISO 834 standards were drafted based on prescriptive codes and have several weaknesses. The first involves a provision allowing the support regions of a test element to be protected from fire exposure. The second deals with the L/30 deflection end point instead of the structural end point (collapse) in order to protect the hydraulic rams from fire damage. Furthermore, designers commonly use the measured fire endurances of interior columns to assess fire ratings of edge and corner columns of the same building. The validity of such an engineering practice is theoretically unsound. Performance-Based Codes (PBC) require verification tests of structural frames including the beam/column joints to overcome these weaknesses but allow the use of element test data as reference only. In the last 30 years, PBC have gained global popularity because the innovative design and flexibility in achieving an ultimate performance goal.

Keywords: fire resistance, concrete structure, beam/column frame, fire tests

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Authors: G. L. C. Yap

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Modelling realized volatility with high-frequency returns is popular as it is an unbiased and efficient estimator of return volatility. A computationally simple model is fitting the logarithms of the realized volatilities with a fractionally integrated long-memory Gaussian process. The Gaussianity assumption simplifies the parameter estimation using the Whittle approximation. Nonetheless, this assumption may not be met in the finite samples and there may be a need to normalize the financial series. Based on the empirical indices S&P500 and DAX, this paper examines the performance of the linear volatility model pre-treated with normalization compared to its existing counterpart. The empirical results show that by including normalization as a pre-treatment procedure, the forecast performance outperforms the existing model in terms of statistical and economic evaluations.

Keywords: Gaussian process, long-memory, normalization, value-at-risk, volatility, Whittle estimator

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Authors: Dina Ziadlou, Anthony Sunjaya, Joyzen Cortez Ramos, Romario Muñoz Ramos, Richard Dasselaar

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This study aimed to evaluate the opinions of users using digital health technologies to prevent, promote, and maintain their health and well-being with or without the support of a healthcare provider to delineate an overview of the future patient journey while considering the strategic initiatives in the digital transformation era. This research collected the opinions of healthcare clients through a structural questionnaire to collect user accessibility, user knowledge, user experience, user engagement, and personalized medicine to investigate the mindset of the users and illustrate their opinions, expectations, needs, and voices about digital self-care expansion. In the realm of digital transformation, the accessibility of users to the internet, digital health platforms, tools, and mobile health applications have revolutionized the healthcare ecosystem toward nurturing informed and empowered patients who are tech-savvy and can take the initiative to be in charge of their health, involved in medical decision-making, and seek digital health innovations to prevent diseases and promote their healthy lifestyles. Therefore, the future of the patient journey is digital self-care intervention in a healthcare ecosystem where the partnership of patients in healthcare services is tied to their health information and action ownership.

Keywords: digital health, patient engagement, self-care intervention, digital self-care intervention, digital transformation

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Authors: J. S. Bedi, J. P. S. Gill, R. S. Aulakh, Prabhjit Kaur

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The present study was undertaken to monitor organochlorine, organophosphate and synthetic pyrethroid pesticide residues in butter and ghee samples collected from six different districts of Punjab. The estimation of pesticide residues was done by multiple residue analytical technique using gas chromatography equipped with GC-ECD and GC-FTD. The confirmation of residues was done on gas chromatography mass spectrometry in both SIM and Scan mode. Results indicated the presence of HCH and pp DDE as predominant contaminant in both butter and ghee even after their ban/restriction on usage in India. Residues of HCH were detected in 25.5 and 23.2 % samples of butter and ghee, respectively, while residues of pp DDE were recorded in 29.3 and 25.0 % butter and ghee samples, respectively. More importantly, the presence of endosulfan, cypermethrin, fenvalerate, deltamethrin and chlorpyrifos was observed in few butter and ghee samples indicating the serious concerns. The spatial variation of pesticide residues occurrence indicated the cotton belt of Punjab as most affected.

Keywords: butter, ghee, pesticides residues, Punjab

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Authors: Sue-Yi Chen, Wei-Chun Hsu, Jon-Yiew Gan

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Si-based double-junction tandem solar cells have become a popular research topic because of the advantages of low manufacturing cost and high energy conversion efficiency. However, there is no set of calculations to select the appropriate top cell materials. Therefore, this paper will propose a simple but practical selection method. First of all, we calculate the S-Q limit and explain the reasons for developing tandem solar cells. Secondly, we calculate the theoretical energy conversion efficiency of the double-junction tandem solar cells while combining the commercial monocrystalline Si and materials' practical efficiency to consider the actual situation. Finally, we conservatively conclude that if considering 75% performance of the theoretical energy conversion efficiency of the top cell, the suitable bandgap energy range will fall between 1.38eV to 2.5eV. Besides, we also briefly describe some improvements of several proper materials, CZTS, CdSe, Cu2O, ZnTe, and CdS, hoping that future research can select and manufacture high-efficiency Si-based tandem solar cells based on this paper successfully. Most importantly, our calculation method is not limited to silicon solely. If other materials’ performances match or surpass silicon's ability in the future, researchers can also apply this set of deduction processes.

Keywords: high-efficiency solar cells, material selection, Si-based double-junction solar cells, Tandem solar cells, photovoltaics.

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Authors: Kyoung-Jin Joo, In-Gun Kim, Hyun-Seok Hong, Dong-Woo Kang, Ju Lee

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Recently, the permanent magnet-assisted synchronous reluctance motor (PMa-SynRM) that can be substituted for the induction motor has been studying because of the needs of the development of the premium high efficiency motor for the minimum energy performance standard (MEPS). PMa-SynRM is required to the speed and position information for motor speed and torque controls. However, to apply the sensors has many problems that are sensor mounting space shortage and additional cost, etc. Therefore, in this paper, speed-sensorless control based on model reference adaptive system (MRAS) is introduced to eliminate the sensor. The sensorless method is constructed in a reference model as standard and an adaptive model as the state observer. The proposed algorithm is verified by the simulation.

Keywords: PMa-SynRM, sensorless control, robust estimation, MRAS method

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Authors: Miguel A. Borrella, Ana P. Fanjul, Suca Munoz, Liliana Herrera

Abstract:

This paper evaluates the impact of LEADER, a remarkable Community-Led Local Development (CLLD) approach of the European Program for Rural Development applied to rural municipalities of Spain in 2018 and 2019. Using a difference-in-difference estimation strategy and a newly-constructed database, results show that aided municipalities have significantly lower unemployment levels than non-aided municipalities. Results are significant for the decrease in unemployment for both women and people younger than 25 years old, two of the target groups of the policy. Nevertheless, they are larger for male and older workers. Therefore, findings suggest that LEADER 2017-2018 was successful in reducing unemployment in rural areas.

Keywords: community-led local development, ex-post evaluation, LEADER, rural development

Procedia PDF Downloads 331

Authors: Ji Min China

Abstract:

The 20th century was the century of globalization. Developed transportation and the progress of information media made the earth into a global village. The differences between regions is increasingly reduced, "cultural convergence" phenomenon intensified, regional specialties and traditional culture has been eroded. In the field of architecture, while experienced orderly rational modernism baptism, it is increasingly recognized that set the expense of cultural differences and forced to follow the universal international-style building has been outdated. At the same time, in the 21st century environmental issues has been paid more and more attention, and the concept of sustainable development and sustainable building have been proposed.This makes the domestic and foreign architects began to explore the possibilities of building and reflect local cultural characteristics of the new vernacular architecture as a viable diversified architectural tendencies by domestic and foreign architects’ favor. The author will use the production and creative process of the new vernacular architecture at home and abroad as the background, and select some outstanding examples of the analysis and discussion, then reinterpret the "new vernacular architecture" in China now. This paper will pay more attention to how to master the true meaning of the here and now "new vernacular" as well as its multiple dimensions of sustainability in the future. It also determines the paper will be a two-way aspect and multi-dimensional understanding and mining of the "new vernacular".

Keywords: new vernacular architecture, regional culture, multi dimension, sustainable

Procedia PDF Downloads 443

Authors: Abanoub Rady Shaker Saleb

Abstract:

Nowadays, design and architecture are being affected and underwent change with the rapid advancements in technology, economics, politics, society and culture. Architecture has been transforming with the latest developments after the inclusion of computers into design. Integration of design into the computational environment has revolutionized the architecture and new perspectives in architecture have been gained. The history of architecture shows the various technological developments and changes in which the architecture has transformed with time. Therefore, the analysis of integration between technology and the history of the architectural process makes it possible to build a consensus on the idea of how architecture is to proceed. In this study, each period that occurs with the integration of technology into architecture is addressed within historical process. At the same time, changes in architecture via technology are identified as important milestones and predictions with regards to the future of architecture have been determined. Developments and changes in technology and the use of technology in architecture within years are analyzed in charts and graphs comparatively. The historical process of architecture and its transformation via technology are supported with detailed literature review and they are consolidated with the examination of focal points of 20th-century architecture under the titles; parametric design, genetic architecture, simulation, and biomimicry. It is concluded that with the historical research between past and present; the developments in architecture cannot keep up with the advancements in technology and recent developments in technology overshadow the architecture, even the technology decides the direction of architecture. As a result, a scenario is presented with regards to the reach of technology in the future of architecture and the role of the architect.

Keywords: design and development the information technology architecture, enterprise architecture, enterprise architecture design result, TOGAF architecture development method (ADM)

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Authors: Siti Nurhidayah Naqiah Abdull Rani, Herlina Abdul Rahim, Rashidah Ghazali, Noramli Abdul Razak

Abstract:

Near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy has always been of great interest in the food and agriculture industries. The development of prediction models has facilitated the estimation process in recent years. In this study, 110 crude palm oil (CPO) samples were used to build a free fatty acid (FFA) prediction model. 60% of the collected data were used for training purposes and the remaining 40% used for testing. The visible peaks on the NIR spectrum were at 1725 nm and 1760 nm, indicating the existence of the first overtone of C-H bands. Principal component regression (PCR) was applied to the data in order to build this mathematical prediction model. The optimal number of principal components was 10. The results showed R2=0.7147 for the training set and R2=0.6404 for the testing set.

Keywords: palm oil, fatty acid, NIRS, regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 499