Search results for: urban growth prediction

Authors: Alemaw Kefale, Aramde Fetene, Hayal Desta

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This study analyzed the users' and experts' views on the green space quality and planning models in Debre Berhan (DB) and Debre Markos (DM) cities in Ethiopia. A questionnaire survey was conducted on 350 park users (148 from DB and 202 from DM) to rate the accessibility, size, shape, vegetation cover, social and cultural context, conservation and heritage, community participation, attractiveness, comfort, safety, inclusiveness, and maintenance of green spaces using a Likert scale. A key informant interview was held with 13 experts in DB and 12 in DM. Descriptive statistics and tests of independence of variables using the chi-square test were done. A statistically significant association existed between the perception of green space quality attributes and users' occupation (χ² (160, N = 350) = 224.463, p < 0.001), age (χ² (128, N = 350) = 212.812, p < 0.001), gender (χ² (32, N = 350) = 68.443, p < 0.001), and education level (χ² (192, N = 350) = 293.396, p < 0.001). 61.7 % of park users were unsatisfied with the quality of urban green spaces. The users perceived dense vegetation cover as "good," with a mean value of 3.41, while the remaining were perceived as "medium with a mean value of 2.62 – 3.32". Only quantitative space standards are practiced as a green space planning model, while other models are unfamiliar and never used in either city. Therefore, experts need to be aware of and practice urban green models during urban planning to ensure that new developments include green spaces to accommodate the community's and the environment's needs.

Keywords: urban green space, quality, users and experts, green space planning models, Ethiopia

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Authors: Elnaz Entezar, Reza Ezzati

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In recent decades, trade flows, capital, workforce, technology and information have increased between international borders and the globalization has turned to an undeniable process in international economics. Meanwhile, despite the positive aspects of globalization, the critics of globalization opine that the risks and costs of globalization for developing vulnerable economies and the world's impoverished people are high and significant. In this regard, this study by using the data of KOF Economic Institute and the World Bank for 113 different countries during the period 2002-2012, by taking advantage of panel smooth transition regression, and by taking the gross domestic product as transmission variables discuss the nonlinear relationship between research variables. The results have revealed that globalization in low regime (countries with low GDP) has negative impact whereas in high regime (countries with high GDP) has a positive impact. In spite of the fact that in the early stages of growth, control of corruption has a positive impact on economic growth, after a threshold has a negative impact on economic growth.

Keywords: globalization, corruption, panel smooth transition model, economic growth, threshold, economic convergence

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Authors: Ahmed Bellakhdhar

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This paper aims to test the impact of various variables-namely, investment in physical capital, investment in human capital, openness to trade and foreign direct investments, and distance from the technology frontier-on economic growth in the Tunisian context during the period 1976-2010. Empirical results identify that the impact of human capital is significantly positive. This finding confirms the hypothesis that human capital is a main driver of economic performance through its role of improving the internal productive capacity and the absorption of foreign technology especially via foreign direct investments. The effect of FDI is significantly positive in all alternative regressions and the coefficient associated to physical capital variable is positive, but not significant overall. Concerning the import of technologically advanced equipments, our estimates show the absence of a significant direct impact on economic growth in Tunisia. Our empirical results also support the assumption of a non linear relationship between tax and growth and demonstrate the existence of an inverted-U curve between the two variables, in the spirit of the “Laffer curve”.

Keywords: Endogenous growth, Human capital, Technology transfer, Absorptive capacity

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Authors: Amira Mabrouk

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This paper deals with the acceptability of urban toll in Tunisia. The price-based regulation, i.e. urban toll, is the outcome of a political process hampered by three-fold objectives: effectiveness, equity and social acceptability. This produces both economic interest groups and functions that are of incongruent preferences. The plausibility of this speculation goes hand in hand with the fact that these economic interest groups are also taxpayers who undeniably perceive urban toll as an additional charge. This wariness is coupled with an inquiry about the conditions of usage, the redistribution of the collected tax revenue and the idea of the leviathan state completes the picture. In a nutshell, if researches related to road congestion proliferate, no de facto legitimacy can be pleaded. Nonetheless, the theory on urban tolls engenders economists’ questioning of ways to reduce negative external effects linked to it. Only then does the urban toll appear to bear an answer to these issues. Undeniably, the urban toll suggests inherent conflicts due to the apparent no-payment principal of a public asset as well as to the social perception of the new measure as a mere additional charge. However, when the main concern is effectiveness is its broad sense and the social well-being, the main factors that determine the acceptability of such a tariff measure along with the type of incentives should be the object of a thorough, in-depth analysis. Before adopting this economic role, one has to recognize the factors that intervene in the acceptability of a congestion toll which brought about a copious number of articles and reports that lacked mostly solid theoretical content. It is noticeable that nowadays uncertainties float over the exact nature of the acceptability process. Accepting a congestion tariff could differ from one era to another, from one region to another and from one population to another, etc. Notably, this article, within a convenient time frame, attempts at bringing into focus a link between the social acceptability of the urban congestion toll and the value of time through a survey method barely employed in Tunisia, that of stated preference method. How can the urban toll, as a tax, be defined, justified and made acceptable? How can an equitable and effective tariff of congestion toll be reached? How can the costs of this urban toll be covered? In what way can we make the redistribution of the urban toll revenue visible and economically equitable? How can the redistribution of the revenue of urban toll compensate the disadvantaged while introducing such a tariff measure? This paper will offer answers to these research questions and it follows the line of contribution of JULES DUPUIT in 1844.

Keywords: congestion charge, social perception, acceptability, stated preferences

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Authors: Yujiang Wu

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As electrical machine (e-machine) power density re-querulents become more stringent in vehicle electrification, mounting a temperature sensor for e-machine stator windings becomes increasingly difficult. This can lead to higher manufacturing costs, complicated harnesses, and reduced reliability. In this paper, we propose a deep-learning method for predicting electric machine winding temperature, which can either replace the sensor entirely or serve as a backup to the existing sensor. We compare the performance of our method, the stateful long short-term memory networks (LSTM) with truncated backpropagation through time (TBTT), with that of linear regression, as well as stateless LSTM with/without residual connection. Our results demonstrate the strength of combining stateful LSTM and TBTT in tackling nonlinear time series prediction problems with long sequence lengths. Additionally, in industrial applications, high-temperature region prediction accuracy is more important because winding temperature sensing is typically used for derating machine power when the temperature is high. To evaluate the performance of our algorithm, we developed a temperature-stratified MSE. We propose a simple but effective data preprocessing trick to improve the high-temperature region prediction accuracy. Our experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method in accurately predicting winding temperature, particularly in high-temperature regions, while also reducing manufacturing costs and improving reliability.

Keywords: deep learning, electrical machine, functional safety, long short-term memory networks (LSTM), thermal management, time series prediction

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Authors: Sheheryar Khan, Weidong Li, Fanqian Meng

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The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect is one of the foremost problems out of other ecological and socioeconomic issues in urbanization. Due to this phenomenon that human-made urban areas have replaced the rural landscape with the surface that increases thermal conductivity and urban warmth; as a result, the temperature in the city is higher than in the surrounding rural areas. To affect the evidence of this phenomenon in the Zhengzhou city area, an observation of the temperature variations in the urban area is done through a scientific method that has been followed. Landsat 8 satellite images were taken from 2013 to 2015 to calculate the effect of Urban Heat Island (UHI) along with the NPP-VRRIS night-time remote sensing data to analyze the result for a better understanding of the center of the built-up area. To further support the evidence, the correlation between land surface temperatures and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was calculated using the Red band 4 and Near-infrared band 5 of the Landsat 8 data. Mono-window algorithm was applied to retrieve the land surface temperature (LST) distribution from the Landsat 8 data using Band 10 and 11 accordingly to convert the top-of-atmosphere radiance (TOA) and to convert the satellite brightness temperature. Along with Landsat 8 data, NPP-VIIRS night-light data is preprocessed to get the research area data. The analysis between Landsat 8 data and NPP night-light data was taken to compare the output center of the Built-up area of Zhengzhou city.

Keywords: built-up area, land surface temperature, mono-window algorithm, NDVI, remote sensing, threshold method, Zhengzhou

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Authors: A. J. Regan, F. J. Lidgey, M. Betteridge, P. Georgiou, C. Toumazou, K. Hayatleh, J. R. Dibble

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Our goal is development of an algorithm capable of predicting the directional trend of the Standard and Poor’s 500 index (S&P 500). Extensive research has been published attempting to predict different financial markets using historical data testing on an in-sample and trend basis, with many authors employing excessively complex mathematical techniques. In reviewing and evaluating these in-sample methodologies, it became evident that this approach was unable to achieve sufficiently reliable prediction performance for commercial exploitation. For these reasons, we moved to an out-of-sample strategy based on linear regression analysis of an extensive set of financial data correlated with historical closing prices of the S&P 500. We are pleased to report a directional trend accuracy of greater than 55% for tomorrow (t+1) in predicting the S&P 500.

Keywords: financial algorithm, GPU, S&P 500, stock market prediction

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Authors: J. M. Mayoral, M. Anaya

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The urban and economic development of cities demands the construction of water use and flood control infrastructure. Likewise, it is necessary to determine the safety level of the structures built with the current standards and if it is necessary to define the reinforcement actions. The foregoing is even more important in structures of great importance, such as dams, since they imply a greater risk for the population in case of failure or undesirable operating conditions (e.g., seepage, cracks, subsidence). This article presents a methodology for determining the seismic integrity of dams in urban areas. From direct measurements of the dynamic properties using geophysical exploration and ambient seismic noise measurements, the seismic integrity of the concrete-faced rockfill dam selected as a case of study is evaluated. To validate the results, two accelerometer stations were installed (e.g., free field and crest of the dam). Once the dynamic properties were determined, three-dimensional finite difference models were developed to evaluate the dam seismic performance for different intensities of movement, considering the site response and soil-structure interaction effects. The seismic environment was determined from the uniform hazard spectra for several return periods. Based on the results obtained, the safety level of the dam against different seismic actions was determined, and the effectiveness of ambient seismic noise measurements in dynamic characterization and subsequent evaluation of the seismic integrity of urban dams was evaluated.

Keywords: risk, seismic, soil-structure interaction, urban dams

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Authors: H. Derya Arslan

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Shopping centers have become an important part of urban life. The numbers of shopping centers have rapidly increased for ten years, in Turkey. Malls that have been built with increasing speed in the last two decades meet most social and cultural needs of people. In this study, architectural characteristics of a recent mall built in the city of Konya in Turkey have been discussed. The assessment of the mall in question has been made in the context of a growing and changing city. The study opened up new horizons and discussion areas to entrepreneurs who make significant investments in shopping centers, architects who design shopping centers as efficient commercial and social environments, and social scientists that investigate the effects of increase in these closed urban spaces on urban life.

Keywords: shopping center, architecture, city, social

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Authors: Medhin Haftom Hailu

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The advancement of information technology has significantly impacted Ethiopia's economy, driving innovation, productivity, job creation, and global connectivity. This research examined the impact of contemporary information and communication technologies on Ethiopian economic progress. The study examined eight variables, including mobile, internet, and fixed-line penetration rates, and five macroeconomic control variables. The results showed a positive and strong effect of ICT on economic growth in Ethiopia, with 1% increase in mobile, internet, and fixed line services penetration indexes resulting in an 8.03, 10.05, and 30.06% increase in real GDP. The Granger causality test showed that all ICT variables Granger caused economic growth, but economic growth Granger caused mobile penetration rate only. The study suggests that coordinated ICT infrastructure development, increased telecom service accessibility, and increased competition in the telecom market are crucial for Ethiopia's economic growth. Ethiopia is attempting to establish a digital economy through massive investment in ensuring ICT quality and accessibility. Thus, the research could enhance in understanding of the economic impact of ICT expansion for successful ICT policy interventions for future research.

Keywords: economic growth, cointegration and error correction, ICT expansion, granger causality, penetration

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Authors: Emine Şahin, Murat Soner Balcıoğlu

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The aim of this study was to determine the growth hormone (bGH) gene polymorphism in the Holstein cattle growing around Antalya in Turkey. In order to determine the bGH-AluI polymorphism, polymerase chain reaction - restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) method was performed. A 891 bp fragment of bGH was amplified and two types of alleles C and D for bGH were observed. In this study, the frequencies of C and D alleles were 0.8438 and 0.1562, respectively. The genotype frequencies for CC, CD and DD were 0.787, 0.191 and 0.022, respectively. According to the results of the chi-square test, a significant deviation from the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium was not determined for the bGH locus in the population.

Keywords: Growth Hormone Gene, Holstein , Polymorphism, RFLP

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Authors: Ashika Govender

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This study seeks to determine whether Okun’s Law is valid for the South African economy, using time series data for the period 2004 to 2014. The data were accessed from the South African Reserve Bank and Stats SA. The stationarity of the variables was analysed by applying unit root tests via the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF), the Phillips-Perron (PP) test, and the Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin test (KPSS) test. The study used an ordinary least square (OLS) model in analysing the dynamic version of Okun’s law. The Error Correction Model (ECM) was used to analyse the short-run impact of GDP growth on unemployment, as well as the speed of adjustment. The results indicate a short run and long run relationship between unemployment rate and GDP growth rate in period 2004q1-2014q4, suggesting that Okun’s law is valid for the South African economy. With a 1 percent increase in GDP, unemployment can decrease by 0.13 percent, ceteris paribus. The research culminates in important policy recommendations, highlighting the relationship between unemployment and economic growth in the spirit of the National Development Plan.

Keywords: unemployment, economic growth, Okun's law, South Africa

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Authors: K. C. Surekha

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The natural habitat forms the setting for every urban development. The tangible and intangible characteristics of the site contributed to the sustenance of various urban dimensions of early civilizations. However, as the towns were continuously evolving and developing, the attitude towards the natural habitat changed. The after effects of this self-centered attitude resulted in various natural and manmade catastrophes. At the same time the social habitat, cities and new towns were increasingly over-populated; and will become even more numerous and crowded in the future. The coexistence of natural and urban components is necessary for a sustainable future and preserving the region’s unique features. Therefore, there is an urgent need to rethink actively on alternative development paradigms to achieve sustenance of all living forms on the planet in a more sustainable way. The main aim of this paper is to understand bioregionalism as an alternative development paradigm, its theory, concepts as well as the key aspects of bioregional planning. The paper will try to understand the concept of bioregionalism theoretically and take case studies. The critical interpretation of theory and analysis of case studies will be used to form a set of design parameters which can be physically implemented from an urban design and planning standpoint.

Keywords: bioregion, bioregionalism, holistic, sustainable

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Authors: Sandeep Sharma, Sarabjit Singh

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As per the user demand and growth trends of large free data the storage solutions are now becoming more challenge-able to protect, store and to retrieve data. The days are not so far when the storage companies and organizations are start saying 'no' to store our valuable data or they will start charging a huge amount for its storage and protection. On the other hand as per the environmental conditions it becomes challenge-able to maintain and establish new data warehouses and data centers to protect global warming threats. A challenge of small data is over now, the challenges are big that how to manage the exponential growth of data. In this paper we have analyzed the growth trend of big data and its future implications. We have also focused on the impact of the unstructured data on various concerns and we have also suggested some possible remedies to streamline big data.

Keywords: big data, unstructured data, volume, variety, velocity

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Authors: Lufei Mao, Hongwei Chen, Zijiao Chai

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Informal housing is a widespread phenomenon in developing countries. In many newly-emerging cities in China, rapid urbanization leads to an influx of population as well as a shortage of housing. Under this background, container housing, a new form of informal housing, gradually appears on a small scale on urban temporary land in recent years. Container housing, just as its name implies, transforms containers into small houses that allow migrant workers group to live in it. Scholars in other countries have established sound theoretical frameworks for informal housing study, but the research fruits seem rather limited on this small scale housing form. Unlike the cases in developed countries, these houses, which are outside urban planning, bring about various environmental, economic, social and governance issues. Aiming to figure out this new-born housing form, a survey mainly on two container housing settlements in Hangzhou, China was carried out to gather the information of them. Based on this thorough survey, the paper concludes the features and problems of infrastructure, environment and social communication of container housing settlements. The result shows that these containers were lacking of basic facilities and were restricted in a small mess temporary land. Moreover, because of the deficiency in management, the rental rights of these containers might not be guaranteed. Then the paper analyzes the factors affecting the formation and evolution of container housing settlements. It turns out that institutional and policy factors, market factors and social factors were the main three factors that affect the formation. At last, the paper proposes some suggestions for the governance of container housing and the utility pattern of urban temporary land.

Keywords: container housing, informal housing, urban temporary land, urban governance

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Authors: Mansilla, Juan Camilo

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According to many studies, public space in the cities of Global South is constantly morcellated and captured by a multiplicity of actors in a permanent struggle for power. This imposed public space restricts the access to services and political actions to many inhabitants. The author has conducted several focus group sessions using video in a reflective mode with low-income communities in Medellín, Colombia in order to study how people in this city are shift from a physical public space to a hybrid public space shaped by internet. Beyond the fragmented city and the violent urban context manifested by participants, these activities have highlighted how the access to the city is currently going through a dialectic movement between the physical and the digital space. The purpose of this article is to make explicit the link between this hybrid public space and the boundaries of exclusion in the city. Urban marginality is closely related with the idea of access and space. Low-income communities in Medellín assume the digital realm like a “not controlled space” of resistance, where alternative ways of expression like hip hop movement, graffiti, dance, video and virtual communities produce effective changes in the physical realm.

Keywords: access to the city, hybrid public space, low-income communities, Medellín, urban marginality

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Authors: Jane N. O'Sullivan

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Although it is widely believed that fertility decline has benefitted economic advancement, particularly in East and South-East Asian countries, the causal mechanisms for this stimulus are contested. Since the turn of this century, demographic dividend theory has been increasingly recognised, hypothesising that higher proportions of working-age people can contribute to economic expansion if conditions are met to employ them productively. Population growth rate, as a systemic condition distinct from age composition, has not been similar attention since the 1970s and has lacked methodology for quantitative assessment. This paper explores conceptual and empirical quantification of the burden of expanding physical capital to accommodate a growing population. In proof-of-concept analyses of Australia and the United Kingdom, actual expenditure on gross fixed capital formation was compiled over four decades and apportioned to maintenance/turnover or expansion to accommodate population growth, based on lifespan of capital assets and population growth rate. In both countries, capital expansion was estimated to cost 6.5-7.0% of GDP per 1% population growth rate. This opportunity cost impedes the improvement of per capita capacity needed to realise the potential of the working-age population. Economic modelling of demographic scenarios have to date omitted this channel of influence; the implications of its inclusion are discussed.

Keywords: age dependency, demographic dividend, infrastructure, population growth rate

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Authors: Ingy Ibrahim El-Darwish, Neveen Youssef Azmy

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The endowment of a healthy environment can be implemented by endorsing sustainable fundamentals. Design of sustainable buildings through recycling of waste, can reduce health problems, provide good environments and contribute to the aesthetically pleasing entourage. Such environments can help in providing energy-saving alternatives to consolidate the principles of sustainability. The poor community awareness and the absence of laws and legislation in Egypt for waste management specifically in residential areas have led to an inability to provide an integrated system for waste management in urban and rural areas. Many problems and environmental challenges face the Egyptian urban environments. From these problems, is the lack of a cohesive vision for waste collection and recycling for energy-saving. The second problem is the lack public awareness of the short term and long term vision of waste management. Bad practices have adversely affected the efficiency of environmental management systems due to lack of urban legislations that codify collection and recycling of residential communities in Egyptian urban environments. Hence, this research tries to address residents on waste management matters to facilitate legislative process on waste collection and classification within residential units and outside them in a preparation phase for recycling in the Egyptian urban environments. In order to achieve this goal, one of the Egyptian communities has been addressed, analyzed and studied. Waste collection, classification, separation and access to recycling places in the urban city are proposed in preparation for a legislation ruling and regulating the process. Hence, sustainable principles are to be achieved.

Keywords: recycling, residential buildings, sustainability, waste

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Authors: S. Dey, P. Sibanda, S. Gupta, A. Chakraborty

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The occurrence of high nocturnal surface ozone over a tropical urban area (23̊ 32′16.99″ N and 87̊ 17′ 38.95″ E) is analyzed in this paper. Five incidences of nocturnal ozone maxima are recorded during the observational span of two years (June, 2013 to May, 2015). The maximum and minimum values of the surface ozone during these five occasions are 337.630 μg/m³ and 13.034 μg/m³ respectively. HYSPLIT backward trajectory analyses and wind rose diagrams support the horizontal transport of ozone from distant polluted places. Planetary boundary layer characteristics, concentration of precursor (NO₂) and meteorology are found to play important role in the horizontal and vertical transport of surface ozone during nighttime.

Keywords: nocturnal ozone, planetary boundary layer, horizontal transport, meteorology, urban area

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Authors: Jong Won, Park, Sung Hyun, Kim

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The kinetic energy to pass subjected to shock and chisel reciprocating piston hydraulic power supplied by the excavator using for the purpose of crushing the rock, and roads, buildings, etc., hydraulic breakers blow. Impact frequency, efficiency measurement of the impact energy, hydraulic breakers, to demonstrate the ability of hydraulic breaker manufacturers and users to a very important item. And difficult in order to confirm the initial performance degradation in the life of the hydraulic breaker has been thought to be a problem.In this study, we measure the efficiency of hydraulic breaker, Impact energy and Impact frequency, the degradation analysis of research to predict the life.

Keywords: impact energy, impact frequency, hydraulic breaker, life prediction

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Authors: Deepak Raj Bhat, Ryuichi Yatabe

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In this study, a residual-state creep failure model was developed based on the residual-state creep test results of clayey soils. To develop the proposed model, the regression analyses were done by using the R. The model results of the failure time (tf) and critical displacement (δc) were compared with experimental results and found in close agreements to each others. It is expected that the proposed regression model for residual-state creep failure will be more useful for the prediction of displacement of different clayey soils in the future.

Keywords: regression model, residual-state creep failure, displacement prediction, clayey soils

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Authors: Nidhi Prabha

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Transportation as a sector is one of the most significant infrastructural elements of the ‘urban.' The distinctness of an urban life in a city is marked by the dynamic movements that it enables within the city-space. Therefore it is important to study the public-transport systems that enable and foster mobility which characterizes the urban. It is also crucial to underscore the way one is examining the urban transport systems - either as an infrastructural unit in a strict physical-structural sense or as a structural unit which acts as a prism refracting multiple experiences depending on the location of the ‘commuter.' In the proposed paper, the attempt is to uncover and investigate the assumption of the neuter-commuter by looking at urban transportation in the secondary sense i.e. as a structural unit which is experienced differently by different kinds of commuters, thus making transportation deeply distributed with various social structures and locations like class or gender which map onto the transport systems. To this end, the public-transit systems operating in Urban Delhi i.e. the Delhi Metros and the Delhi Transport Corporation run public-buses are looked at as case studies. The study is premised on the knowledge and data gained from both primary and secondary sources. Primary sources include data and knowledge collected from fieldwork, the methodology for which has ranged from adopting ‘mixed-methods’ which is ‘Qualitative-then-Quantitative’ as well as borrowing ethnographic techniques. Apart from fieldwork, other primary sources looked at including Annual Reports and policy documents of the Delhi Metro Rail Corporation (DMRC) and the Delhi Transport Corporation (DTC), Union and Delhi budgets, Economic Survey of Delhi, press releases, etc. Secondary sources include the vast array of literature available on the critical nodes that inform the research like gender, transport geographies, urban-space, etc. The study indicates a deeply-distributed urban transport system wherein the various social-structural locations or different kinds of commuters map onto the way these different commuters experience mobility or movement within the city space. Mobility or movement, therefore, becomes gendered or has class-based ramifications. The neuter-commuter assumption is thus challenged. Such an understanding enables us to challenge the anonymity which the ‘urban’ otherwise claims it provides over the rural. The rural is opposed to the urban wherein urban ushers a modern way of life, breaking ties of traditional social identities. A careful study of the transport systems through the traveling patterns and choices of the commuters, however, indicate that this does not hold true as even the same ‘public-space’ of the transport systems allocates different places to different kinds of commuters. The central argument made though the research done is therefore that infrastructure like urban-transport-systems has to be studied and examined as seen beyond just a physical structure. The various experiences of daily mobility of different kinds of commuters have to be taken into account in order to design and plan more inclusive transport systems.

Keywords: gender, infrastructure, mobility, urban-transport-systems

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Authors: Nuwan Kuruwitaarachchi, M. K. M. Peiris, C. N. Madawala, K. M. A. R. Perera, V. U. N Perera

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Dealing with businesses with the foreign market always took a special place in a country’s economy. Political and social factors came into play making currency rate changes fluctuate rapidly. Currency rate prediction has become an important factor for larger international businesses since large amounts of money exchanged between countries. This research focuses on comparing the accuracy of mainly three models; Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Networks(ANN) and Support Vector Machines(SVM). series of data import, export, USD currency exchange rate respect to LKR has been selected for training using above mentioned algorithms. After training the data set and comparing each algorithm, it was able to see that prediction in SVM performed better than other models. It was improved more by combining SVM and SVR models together.

Keywords: ARIMA, ANN, FFNN, RMSE, SVM, SVR

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Authors: Sabir Hussain, Mujtaba Hassan, Kashif Rasool, Asif Shahzad

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Fine particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) was collected in Islamabad from November 2022 to January 2023, at urban sites. The average mass concentrations of PM2.5 varied, ranging from 90.5 to 133 μg m−3 in urban areas. Environmental scanning electron microscopy (ESEM) analysis revealed that Islamabad's PM2.5 comprised soot aggregates, ashes, minerals, bio-particles, and unidentified particles. Results from inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES) indicated a gradual increase in total elemental concentrations in Islamabad PM2.5 in winter, with relatively high levels in December. Significantly different elemental compositions were observed in urban PM2.5. Enrichment factor (EF) analysis suggested that elements such as K, Na, Ca, Mg, Al, Fe, Ba, and Sr were of natural origin, while As, Cu, Zn, Pb, Cd, Mn, Ni, and Se originated from anthropogenic sources. Plasmid DNA assays demonstrated varying levels of potential toxicity in Islamabad PM2.5 collected from urban sites, as well as across different seasons. Notably, the urban winter PM2.5 sample exhibited much stronger toxicity compared to other samples. The presence of heavy metals in Islamabad PM2.5, including Cu, Zn, Pb, Cd, Cr, Mn, and Ni, may have synergistic effects on human health.

Keywords: islamabad particulate matter pm2.5, scanning electron microscopy with energy-dispersive x-ray spectroscopy(sem-eds), fourier transform infrared spectroscopy(ftir), inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy(icp-oes)

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Authors: Hassan Baji, Chun-Qing Li, Wei Yang

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Water seepage is one of the most common causes of damage in tunnel structures, which can cause direct and indirect e.g. reinforcement corrosion and calcium leaching damages. Estimation of water seepage or inflow is one of the main challenges in probabilistic assessment of tunnels. The methodology proposed in this study is an attempt for mathematically modeling the water seepage in tunnel structures and further predicting its service life. Using the time-dependent reliability, water seepage is formulated as a failure mode, which can be used for prediction of service life. Application of the formulated seepage failure mode to a case study tunnel is presented.

Keywords: water seepage, tunnels, time-dependent reliability, service life

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Authors: Elisha Didam Markus, Thapelo Maqame

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This paper focuses on studying the effects of magnetism on water and their impact to plant growth. Magnetic fields are known to induce higher rate of biochemical reaction and therefore can be used for growth related reactions in plants. For the purpose of this study, two 2 litres bottles were taken, one with two opposite poles magnets (500 mT) one on top and one at the bottom of the bottle. Another bottle was not altered in any way (used as control). Each bottle contained tap water stored up for 24 hours. Plants planted into different pots were watered using water from these bottles. Four pots with soil and manure equally mixed were used and equal volume of radish berry seeds were planted. Two pots were watered with magnetised water and the other two with normal tap water. The developments of plants were monitored in terms of their lengths for a period of 21 days. After 21 days, the lengths of plants watered with magnetised water were found to be 5.6% longer than those watered with tap water.

Keywords: magnetised water, radish berry, growth percentage, magnetic fields

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Authors: V. Benidze

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After the Rose Revolution of 2003, Georgia has achieved an unparalleled socioeconomic success. However, economic growth since 2012 has been sluggish and certainly not enough to rapidly improve the county’s standard of living that still remains substantially low compared to that in developed nations. Recent poor economic performance has shown that some key challenges need to be addressed if Georgia is to achieve high future economic growth that will decrease the poverty rate and create a middle class in the country. This paper offers in detail analysis of the economic performance of Georgia since 2012 and identifies key challenges facing the country’s economy. The main challenge going forward will be transforming Georgia from a consumption-driven to a production-oriented economy. It is identified that mobilizing domestic investment through savings, attracting foreign investment in tradable sectors and expanding the country’s export base will be crucial in the facilitation of the above-mentioned structural transformation. As the outcome of the research, the paper suggests a strategy for accelerating Georgia’ future economic growth and offers recommendations based on the relevant conclusions.

Keywords: challenges, development, economic growth, economic policy, Georgia

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Authors: C. Minguez, J. Bueso-Rodenas, C. Ibanez, A. Calvo

Abstract:

Mannan oligosaccharides (MOS) is one of the prebiotic most used in livestock nutrition. In this research, the effect of MOS dietary supplementation on growth performance and mortality in meat guinea pigs were studied. Three different experimental groups were compared: Control group (no additives); MOS 1 (1.5 g kg−1); MOS 2 (2 g kg−1). Guinea pigs were housed in 15 collective cages (n = 50 animals in each trial; 10 animals per cage). The young guinea pigs were weaning at day 28 and individually identified by a little ear tag. The fattening period was 49 days. Guinea pigs in both groups were fed ad libitum, with a standard commercial pellet diet (10 MJ of digestible energy/kg, 17% crude protein, 11% crude fiber, and 4.5% crude fat) and alfalfa (Medicago sativa) as forage. Growth traits, including body weight (BW), average daily gain (ADG), feed intake (FI), and feed conversion ratio (FCR), were measured weekly. On day 74, the animals were slaughtered. Contrasts between groups were obtained by calculated generalized least squares values. Mortality were evaluated by Fisher's exact test. Between MOS groups no significant differences were observed for growth traits and mortality. However, significant differences against the control group were observed for traits studied (pvalue < 0.05). In conclusion, the use of MOS could be a good prebiotic supplement to raise guinea pigs because it MOS has shown positive effects in growth traits and immune response in animals.

Keywords: guinea pig, growth, mannan oligosaccharides, mortality

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Authors: Julio Jesus Salazar, Manuel Andres Jesus De Lama

Abstract:

There are very few models that serve to analyze the use of water in the socio-economic process. On the supply side, the joint use of groundwater has been considered in addition to the simple limits on the availability of surface water. In addition, we have worked on waterlogging and the effects on water quality (mainly salinity). In this paper, a 'complex' water economy is examined; one in which demands grow differentially not only within but also between sectors, and one in which there are limited opportunities to increase consumptive use. In particular, high-value growth, the growth of the production of irrigated crops of high value within the basins of the case study, together with the rapidly growing urban areas, provides a rich context to examine the general problem of water management at the basin level. At the same time, the long-term aridity of nature has made the eco-environment in the basins located on the coast of Peru very vulnerable, and the exploitation and immediate use of water resources have further deteriorated the situation. The presented methodology is the optimization with embedded simulation. The wide basin simulation of flow and water balances and crop growth are embedded with the optimization of water allocation, reservoir operation, and irrigation scheduling. The modeling framework is developed from a network of river basins that includes multiple nodes of origin (reservoirs, aquifers, water courses, etc.) and multiple demand sites along the river, including places of consumptive use for agricultural, municipal and industrial, and uses of running water on the coast of Peru. The economic benefits associated with water use are evaluated for different demand management instruments, including water rights, based on the production and benefit functions of water use in the urban agricultural and industrial sectors. This work represents a new effort to analyze the use of water at the regional level and to evaluate the modernization of the integrated management of water resources and socio-economic territorial development in Peru. It will also allow the establishment of policies to improve the process of implementation of the integrated management and development of water resources. The input-output analysis is essential to present a theory about the production process, which is based on a particular type of production function. Also, this work presents the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) version of the economic model for water resource policy analysis, which was specifically designed for analyzing large-scale water management. As to the platform for CGE simulation, GEMPACK, a flexible system for solving CGE models, is used for formulating and solving CGE model through the percentage-change approach. GEMPACK automates the process of translating the model specification into a model solution program.

Keywords: water economy, simulation, modeling, integration

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Authors: Senol Dogan, Gunay Karli

Abstract:

Identification of relevant publications based on a Medline query is time-consuming and error-prone. An all based process has the potential to solve this problem without any manual work. To the best of our knowledge, our study is the first to investigate the ability of machine learning to identify relevant articles accurately. 5 different machine learning algorithms were tested using 23 predictors based on several metadata fields attached to publications. We find that the Boosted model is the best-performing algorithm and its overall accuracy is 96%. In addition, specificity and sensitivity of the algorithm is 97 and 93%, respectively. As a result of the work, we understood that we can apply the same procedure to understand cancer gene expression big data.

Keywords: prediction of publications, machine learning, algorithms, bariatric surgery, comparison of algorithms, boosted, tree, logistic regression, ANN model

Procedia PDF Downloads 210