Search results for: predictive distribution

Authors: Josephine Wanja Nyatia

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The relationship between vegetation and soil erosion deserves attention due to its scientific importance and practical applications. A great deal of information is available about the mechanisms and benefits of vegetation in the control of soil erosion, but the effects of soil erosion on vegetation development and succession is poorly documented. Research shows that soil erosion is the most important driving force for the degradation of upland and mountain ecosystems. Soil erosion interferes with the process of plant community development and vegetation succession, commencing with seed formation and impacting throughout the whole growth phase and affecting seed availability, dispersal, germination and establishment, plant community structure and spatial distribution. There have been almost no studies on the effects of soil erosion on seed development and availability, of surface flows on seed movement and redistribution, and their influences on soil seed bank and on vegetation establishment and distribution. However, these effects may be the main cause of low vegetation cover in regions of high soil erosion activity, and these issues need to be investigated. Moreover, soil erosion is not only a negative influence on vegetation succession and restoration but also a driving force of plant adaptation and evolution. Consequently, we need to study the effects of soil erosion on ecological processes and on development and regulation of vegetation succession from the points of view of pedology and vegetation, plant and seed ecology, and to establish an integrated theory and technology for deriving practical solutions to soil erosion problems

Keywords: soil erosion, vegetation, development, seed availability

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Authors: Augustine Okolie, Johannes Müller, Mirjam Kretzchmar

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We adopt a maximum-likelihood framework to estimate parameters of a stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with contact tracing on a rooted random tree. Given the number of detectees per index case, our estimator allows to determine the degree distribution of the random tree as well as the tracing probability. Since we do not discover all infectees via contact tracing, this estimation is non-trivial. To keep things simple and stable, we develop an approximation suited for realistic situations (contract tracing probability small, or the probability for the detection of index cases small). In this approximation, the only epidemiological parameter entering the estimator is the basic reproduction number R0. The estimator is tested in a simulation study and applied to covid-19 contact tracing data from India. The simulation study underlines the efficiency of the method. For the empirical covid-19 data, we are able to compare different degree distributions and perform a sensitivity analysis. We find that particularly a power-law and a negative binomial degree distribution meet the data well and that the tracing probability is rather large. The sensitivity analysis shows no strong dependency on the reproduction number.

Keywords: stochastic SIR model on graph, contact tracing, branching process, parameter inference

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Authors: Michael Kenomore, Mohamed Hassan, Amjad Shah, Hom Dhakal

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Shale gas reservoirs have been of greater importance compared to shale oil reservoirs since 2009 and with the current nature of the oil market, understanding the technical and economic performance of shale gas reservoirs is of importance. Using the Barnett shale as a case study, an economic model was developed to quantify the effect of finding and development costs and gas prices on the basins in the Barnett shale using net present value as an evaluation parameter. A rate of return of 20% and a payback period of 60 months or less was used as the investment hurdle in the model. The Barnett was split into four basins (Strawn Basin, Ouachita Folded Belt, Forth-worth Syncline and Bend-arch Basin) with analysis conducted on each of the basin to provide a holistic outlook. The dataset consisted of only horizontal wells that started production from 2008 to at most 2015 with 1835 wells coming from the strawn basin, 137 wells from the Ouachita folded belt, 55 wells from the bend-arch basin and 724 wells from the forth-worth syncline. The data was analyzed initially on Microsoft Excel to determine the estimated ultimate recoverable (EUR). The range of EUR from each basin were loaded in the Palisade Risk software and a log normal distribution typical of Barnett shale wells was fitted to the dataset. Monte Carlo simulation was then carried out over a 1000 iterations to obtain a cumulative distribution plot showing the probabilistic distribution of EUR for each basin. From the cumulative distribution plot, the P10, P50 and P90 EUR values for each basin were used in the economic model. Gas production from an individual well with a EUR similar to the calculated EUR was chosen and rescaled to fit the calculated EUR values for each basin at the respective percentiles i.e. P10, P50 and P90. The rescaled production was entered into the economic model to determine the effect of the finding and development cost and gas price on the net present value (10% discount rate/year) as well as also determine the scenario that satisfied the proposed investment hurdle. The finding and development costs used in this paper (assumed to consist only of the drilling and completion costs) were £1 million, £2 million and £4 million while the gas price was varied from $2/MCF-$13/MCF based on Henry Hub spot prices from 2008-2015. One of the major findings in this study was that wells in the bend-arch basin were least economic, higher gas prices are needed in basins containing non-core counties and 90% of the Barnet shale wells were not economic at all finding and development costs irrespective of the gas price in all the basins. This study helps to determine the percentage of wells that are economic at different range of costs and gas prices, determine the basins that are most economic and the wells that satisfy the investment hurdle.

Keywords: shale gas, Barnett shale, unconventional gas, estimated ultimate recoverable

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Authors: Nordila Ahmad, Thamer Mohammad, Bruce W. Melville, Zuliziana Suif

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Current methods for predicting local scour at wide bridge piers, were developed on the basis of laboratory studies and very limited scour prediction were tested with field data. Laboratory wide pier scour equation from previous findings with field data were presented. A wide range of field data were used and it consists of both live-bed and clear-water scour. A method for assessing the quality of the data was developed and applied to the data set. Three other wide pier-scour equations from the literature were used to compare the performance of each predictive method. The best-performing scour equation were analyzed using statistical analysis. Comparisons of computed and observed scour depths indicate that the equation from the previous publication produced the smallest discrepancy ratio and RMSE value when compared with the large amount of laboratory and field data.

Keywords: field data, local scour, scour equation, wide piers

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Authors: Neda Valizadeh, Soudabeh Shafiee Ardestani, Arvin Najafi

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Objectives: The aim of this study is to evaluate the association of mid-regional pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (MRproANP), procalcitonin (PCT), proendothelin-1 (proET-1) levels with sepsis severity in Emergency ward patients. Materials and Methods: We assessed the predictive value of MRproANP, PCT, copeptin, and proET-1 in early sepsis among patients referring to the emergency ward with a suspected sepsis. Results-132 patients were enrolled in this study. 45 (34%) patients had a final diagnosis of sepsis. A higher percentage of patients with definite sepsis had systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria at initial visit in comparison with no-sepsis patients (P<0.05) and were admitted to the hospital (P<0.05). PCT levels were higher in sepsis patients [P<0.05]. There was no significant differences for MRproANP or proET-1 in sepsis patients (P=0.47). Conclusion: A combination of SIRS criteria and PCT levels is beneficial for the early sepsis diagnosis in emergency ward patients with a suspicious infection disease.

Keywords: emergency, prolactin, sepsis, biomarkers

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Authors: Bin Wang, Jian Kang

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After years of development, the study of soundscape has been refined to the types of urban space and building. Traffic complex takes traffic function as the core, with obvious design features of architectural space combination and traffic streamline. The acoustic environment is strongly characterized by function, space, material, user and other factors. Traffic complex integrates various functions of business, accommodation, entertainment and so on. It has various forms, complex and varied experiences, and its acoustic environment is turned rich and interesting with distribution and coordination of various functions, division and unification of the mass, separation and organization of different space and the cross and the integration of multiple traffic flow. In this study, it made field recordings of each space of various traffic complex, and extracted and analyzed different acoustic elements, including changes in sound pressure, frequency distribution, steady sound source, sound source information and other aspects, to make cluster analysis of each independent traffic complex buildings. It divided complicated traffic complex building space into several typical sound space from acoustic environment perspective, mainly including stable sound space, high-pressure sound space, rhythm sound space and upheaval sound space. This classification can further deepen the study of subjective evaluation and control of the acoustic environment of traffic complex.

Keywords: soundscape, traffic complex, cluster analysis, classification

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Authors: Valeria Dilcheva, Svetlozara Petkova, Ivelin Vladov

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Nemathodes of the genus Trichinella are zoonotic parasites with a cosmopolitan distribution. More than 100 species of mammals, birds and reptiles are involved in the natural cycle of this nematode. At present, T. spiralis, T. pseudospiralis, and T. britovi have been found in Bulgaria. The existence of natural wildlife and domestic reservoirs of Trichinella spp. can be a serious threat to human health. Three trichinella isolates caused human trichinella infection outbreaks from three regions of Sofia City Province were used for the research: sample No. 1 - Ratus norvegicus, sample No. 2 – domestic pig (Sus scrofa domestica), sample No. 3 - domestic pig (Sus scrofa domestica). Trichinella larvae of the studied species were isolated via digestive method (pepsin, hydrochloric acid, water) at 37ºC by standard procedure and were determined by gender (male and female) based on their morphological characteristics. As a reference trichinella species were used: T. spiralis, T. pseudospiralis, T. nativa and T. britovi. Single male and female larvae of the three isolates were crossed with single male and female larvae of the reference trichinella species as well as reciprocally. As a result of cross-breeding, offspring of muscular larvae with T. spiralis and T. britovi were obtained, while in experiments with T. pseudospiralis and T. nativa, trichinella larvae were not found in the laboratory mice. The results obtained in the control groups indicate that the trichinella larvae used from the isolates and the four trichinella species are infective. Also, the infective ability of the F1 offspring from the successful cross-breeding between isolates and reference species was investigated. Through the data obtained in the experiment was found that isolates No. 1 and No. 2 belong to the species T. spiralis, and isolate No. 3 belongs to the species T. britovi. The results were confirmed by PCR and real-time PCR analysis. Thus the presence and circulation of the species T. spiralis and T. britovi in Bulgaria was confirmed. Probably the rodents (rats) are involved in the distribution of T. spiralis in urban environment. The species T. britovi found in a domestic pig speaks of some contact with wild animals for which T. britovi is characteristic. The probable reason is that a large number of farmers in Bulgaria practice the free-range breeding of domestic pigs. Part of the farmers also used as food for domestic pigs waste products from the game (foxes, jackals, bears, wolves) and probably thus the infection was obtained. The distribution range of trichinella species in Bulgaria is not strictly outlined. It is believed that T. spiralis is most common in domestic animals and T. britovi and T. pseudospiralis are characteristic of wildlife. To answer the question whether wild and synanthropic animals are infected with the same or different trichinella species, which species predominate in nature and what their distribution among different hosts is, further research is required.

Keywords: cross-breeding, Sofia, trichinellosis, Trichinella britovi, Trichinella spiralis

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Authors: Kewei Xu, Jens Friedrich, Kevin Dwinger, Wei Fan, Xijin Zhang

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Parallel Compressor Model (PCM) is a simplified approach to predict compressor performance with inlet distortions. In PCM calculation, it is assumed that the sub-compressors’ outlet static pressure is uniform and therefore simplifies PCM calculation procedure. However, if the compressor’s outlet duct is not long and straight, such assumption frequently induces error ranging from 10% to 15%. This paper provides a revised calculation method of PCM that can correct the error. The revised method employs energy equation, momentum equation and continuity equation to acquire needed parameters and replace the equal static pressure assumption. Based on the revised method, PCM is applied on two compression system with different blades types. The predictions of their performance in non-uniform inlet conditions are yielded through the revised calculation method and are employed to evaluate the method’s efficiency. Validating the results by experimental data, it is found that although little deviation occurs, calculated result agrees well with experiment data whose error ranges from 0.1% to 3%. Therefore, this proves the revised calculation method of PCM possesses great advantages in predicting the performance of the distorted compressor with limited exhaust duct.

Keywords: parallel compressor model (pcm), revised calculation method, inlet distortion, outlet unequal pressure distribution

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Authors: Evisa Mitrou, Nicholas Tsitsianis, Supriya Shinde

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In the age of digitisation and globalisation, businesses have shifted online and are investing in big data analytics (BDA) to respond to changing market conditions and sustain their performance. Our study shifts the focus from the adoption of BDA to the impact of BDA on financial performance. We explore the financial performance of both BDA-vendors (business-to-business) and BDA-clients (business-to-customer). We distinguish between the five BDA-technologies (big-data-as-a-service (BDaaS), descriptive, diagnostic, predictive, and prescriptive analytics) and discuss them individually. Further, we use four perspectives (internal business process, learning and growth, customer, and finance) and discuss the significance of how each of the five BDA-technologies affects the performance measures of these four perspectives. We also present the analysis of employee engagement, average turnover, average net income, and average net assets for BDA-clients and BDA-vendors. Our study also explores the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on business continuity for both BDA-vendors and BDA-clients.

Keywords: BDA-clients, BDA-vendors, big data analytics, financial performance

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Authors: Mohamad Mohsen Yavarizadeh

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Polystyrene (PS) and related homopolymers are brittle materials that typically fail in tensile tests at very low strains. These polymers can be toughened by the addition of rubbery particles which initiate a large number of crazes that produce substantial plastic strain at relatively low stresses. Considerable energy is dissipated in the formation of these crazes, producing a relatively tough material that shows an impact toughness of more than 5 times of pure PS. While cross linking of rubbery phase is necessary in aforementioned mechanism of toughening, another mechanism of toughening was also introduced in which low molecular weight liquid rubbers can also toughen PS when dispersed in the form of small pools in the glassy matrix without any cross linking. However, this new mechanism which is based on local plasticization, fails to act properly at high strain rate deformations, i.e. impact tests. In this work, the idea of combination of these two mechanisms was tried. To do so, Polybutadiene rubbers (PB) with bimodal distribution of molecular weight were prepared in which, comparable fractions of very high and very low molecular weight rubbers were mixed. Incorporation of these materials in PS matrix in a reactive process resulted in more significant increases in toughness of PS. In other words, although low molecular weight PB is ineffective in high strain rate impact test by itself, it showed a significant synergistic effect when combined with high molecular weight PB. Surprisingly, incorporation of just 10% of low molecular weight PB doubled the impact toughness of regular high impact PS (HIPS). It was observed that most of rubbery particles could initiate crazes. The effectiveness of low molecular weight PB in impact test was attributed to low strain rate deformation of each individual craze as a result of producing a large number of crazes in this material. In other words, high molecular weight PB chains make it possible to have an appropriate dispersion of rubbery phase in order to create a large number of crazes in the PS matrix and consequently decrease the velocity of each craze. Low molecular weight PB, in turn, would have enough time to locally plasticize craze fibrils and enhance the energy dissipation.

Keywords: molecular weight distribution, polystyrene, toughness, homopolymer

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Authors: Atefeh Esmailnejad, Gholamreza Nikbakht Brujeni

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Major histocompatibility complex (MHC) is one of the best characterized genetic regions associated with immune responses and controlling disease resistance in chicken. Association of the MHC with a wide range of immune responses makes it a valuable predictive factor for the disease pathogenesis and outcome. In this study, the association of MHC with cell-mediated immune responses was analyzed in commercial broiler chicken. The tandem repeat LEI0258 was applied to investigate the MHC polymorphism. Cell-mediated immune response was evaluated by peripheral blood lymphocyte proliferation assay using MTT method. Association study revealed a significant influence of MHC alleles on cellular immune responses in this population. Alleles 385 and 448 bp were associated with elevated cell-mediated immunity. Haplotypes associated with improved immune responses could be considered as candidate markers for disease resistance and applied to breeding strategies.

Keywords: MHC, cell-mediated immunity, broiler, chicken

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: R. Stoyanova, R. Dimova, M. Tarnovska, T. Boeva, R. Dimov, I. Doykov

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Patient safety culture (PSC) is an essential component of quality of healthcare. Improving PSC is considered a priority in many developed countries. Specialized software platform for registration and evaluation of hospital patient safety culture has been developed with the support of the Medical University Plovdiv Project №11/2017. The aim of the study is to assess the status of PSC in Bulgarian hospitals and to compare it to that in USA and Croatian hospitals. Methods: The study was conducted from June 01 to July 31, 2018 using the web-based Bulgarian Version of the Hospital Survey on Patient Safety Culture Questionnaire (B-HSOPSC). Two hundred and forty-eight medical professionals from different hospitals in Bulgaria participated in the study. To quantify the differences of positive scores distributions for each of the 42 HSOPSC items between Bulgarian, Croatian and USA samples, the x²-test was applied. The research hypothesis assumed that there are no significant differences between the Bulgarian, Croatian and US PSCs. Results: The results revealed 14 significant differences in the positive scores between the Bulgarian and Croatian PSCs and 15 between the Bulgarian and the USA PSC, respectively. Bulgarian medical professionals provided less positive responses to 12 items compared with Croatian and USA respondents. The Bulgarian respondents were more positive compared to Croatians on the feedback and communication of medical errors (Items - C1, C4, C5) as well as on the employment of locum staff (A7) and the frequency of reported mistakes (D1). Bulgarian medical professionals were more positive compared with their USA colleagues on the communication of information at shift handover and across hospital units (F5, F7). The distribution of positive scores on items: ‘Staff worries that their mistakes are kept in their personnel file’ (RA16), ‘Things ‘fall between the cracks’ when transferring patients from one unit to another’ (RF3) and ‘Shift handovers are problematic for patients in this hospital’ (RF11) were significantly higher among Bulgarian respondents compared with Croatian and US respondents. Conclusions: Significant differences of positive scores distribution were found between Bulgarian and USA PSC on one hand and between Bulgarian and Croatian on the other. The study reveals that distribution of positive responses could be explained by the cultural, organizational and healthcare system differences.

Keywords: patient safety culture, healthcare, HSOPSC, medical error

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Hang Wang, Xiaoming Gao

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The rapid development of e-commerce has significantly transformed consumer behavior and urban consumption patterns worldwide. This study explores the impact of e-commerce on the development and spatial distribution of consumption centers, with a particular focus on Jinan City, China. Traditionally, urban consumption centers are defined by physical commercial spaces, such as shopping malls and markets. However, the rise of e-commerce has introduced a shift towards virtual consumption hubs, with a corresponding impact on physical retail locations. Utilizing Gaode POI (Point of Interest) data, this research aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the spatial distribution of consumption centers in Jinan, comparing e-commerce-driven virtual consumption hubs with traditional physical consumption centers. The study methodology involves gathering and analyzing POI data, focusing on logistics distribution for e-commerce activities and mobile charging point locations to represent offline consumption behavior. A spatial clustering technique is applied to examine the concentration of commercial activities and to identify emerging trends in consumption patterns. The findings reveal a clear differentiation between e-commerce and physical consumption centers in Jinan. E-commerce activities are dispersed across a wider geographic area, correlating closely with residential zones and logistics centers, while traditional consumption hubs remain concentrated around historical and commercial areas such as Honglou and the old city center. Additionally, the research identifies an ongoing transition within Jinan’s consumption landscape, with online and offline retail coexisting, though at different spatial and functional levels. This study contributes to urban planning by providing insights into how e-commerce is reshaping consumption behaviors and spatial structures in cities like Jinan. By leveraging big data analytics, the research offers a valuable tool for urban designers and planners to adapt to the evolving demands of digital commerce and to optimize the spatial layout of city infrastructure to better serve the needs of modern consumers.

Keywords: big data, consumption centers, e-commerce, urban planning, jinan

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Authors: Abdulrahman M. Qahtani, Gary. B. Wills, Andy. M. Gravell

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Communicating and managing customers’ requirements in software development projects play a vital role in the software development process. While it is difficult to do so locally, it is even more difficult to communicate these requirements over distributed boundaries and to convey them to multiple distribution customers. This paper discusses the communication of multiple distribution customers’ requirements in the context of customised software products. The main purpose is to understand the challenges of communicating and managing customisation requirements across distributed boundaries. We propose a model for Communicating Customisation Requirements of Multi-Clients in a Distributed Domain (CCRD). Thereafter, we evaluate that model by presenting the findings of a case study conducted with a company with customisation projects for 18 distributed customers. Then, we compare the outputs of the real case process and the outputs of the CCRD model using simulation methods. Our conjecture is that the CCRD model can reduce the challenge of communication requirements over distributed organisational boundaries, and the delay in decision making and in the entire customisation process time.

Keywords: customisation software products, global software engineering, local decision making, requirement engineering, simulation model

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Authors: Roman Marsalek

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In this paper, snow samples containing dust particles from several sampling points around the city of Ostrava were analyzed. The pH values of sampled snow were measured and solid particles analyzed. Particle size, zeta potential and content of selected heavy metals were determined in solid particles. The pH values of most samples lay in the slightly acid region. Mean values of particle size ranged from 290.5 to 620.5 nm. Zeta potential values varied between -5 and -26.5 mV. The following heavy metal concentration ranges were found: copper 0.08-0.75 mg/g, lead 0.05-0.9 mg/g, manganese 0.45-5.9 mg/g and iron 25.7-280.46 mg/g. The highest values of copper and lead were found in the vicinity of busy crossroads, and on the contrary, the highest levels of manganese and iron were detected close to a large steelworks. The proportion between pH values, zeta potentials, particle sizes and heavy metal contents was established. Zeta potential decreased with rising pH values and, simultaneously, heavy metal content in solid particles increased. At the same time, higher metal content corresponded to lower particle size.

Keywords: dust, snow, zeta potential, particles size distribution, heavy metals

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Authors: Taufik Rizkiandi, Teuku Yuri M. Zagloel, Andri Dwi Setiawan

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Distribution and growth in the transportation and warehousing business sector decreased by 15,04%. There was a decrease in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contribution level from rank 7 of 4,41% in 2019 to 3,81% in rank 8 in 2020. A decline in the transportation and warehousing business sector contributes to GDP, resulting in oil and gas companies implementing an efficient supply chain strategy to ensure the availability of goods, especially lubricants. Fluctuating demand for lubricants and warehouse service time limits are essential things that are taken into account in determining an efficient route. Add depots points as a solution so that demand for lubricants is fulfilled (not stock out). However, adding a depot will increase operating costs and storage costs. Therefore, it is necessary to optimize the addition of depots using the Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows (CVRPTW). This research case study was conducted at an oil and gas company that produces lubricants from 2019 to 2021. The study results obtained the optimal route and the addition of a depot with a minimum additional cost. The total cost remains efficient with the addition of a depot when compared to one depot from Jakarta.

Keywords: CVRPTW, optimal route, depot, tabu search algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Robson C. Santos, David D. Oliveira, Matheus M. Reis, Gerson G. Cunha, Marcos A. C. Moreira

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The project demonstrates the construction of a solar power generation, integrated inverter equipment to a "Grid-Tie" by converting direct current generated by solar panels, into alternating current, the same parameters of frequency and voltage concessionaire distribution network. The energy generated is quantified by smart metering module that transmits the information in specified periods of time to a microcontroller via GSM modem. The modem provides the measured data on the internet, using networks and cellular antennas. The monitoring, fault detection and maintenance are performed by a supervisory station. Employed board types, best inverter selection and studies about control equipment and devices have been described. The article covers and explores the global trend of implementing smart distribution electrical energy networks and the incentive to use solar renewable energy. There is the possibility of the excess energy produced by the system be purchased by the local power utility. This project was implemented in residences in the rural community of the municipality of Cabo Frio/RJ. Data could be seen through daily measurements during the month of November 2013.

Keywords: rural residence, supervisory, smart grid, solar energy

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Authors: Md. Imran H. Khan, T. Farrell, M. A. Karim

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Highly porous and hygroscopic characteristics of pear make it complex to understand the cellular level water distribution. In pear tissue, water is mainly distributed in three different spaces namely, intercellular water, intracellular water, and cell wall water. Understanding of these three types of water in pear tissue is crucial for predicting actual heat and mass transfer during drying. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to investigate the proportion of intercellular water, intracellular water, and cell wall water inside the pear tissue. During this study, Green Anjou Pear was taken for the investigation. The experiment was performed using 1H-NMR- T2 relaxometry. Various types of water component were calculated by using multi-component fits of the T2 relaxation curves. The experimental result showed that in pear tissue 78-82% water exist in intracellular space; 12-16% water in intercellular space and only 2-4% water exist in the cell wall space. The investigated results quantify different types of water in plant-based food tissue. The highest proportion of water exists in intracellular spaces. It was also investigated that the physical properties of pear and the proportion of the different types of water has a strong relationship. Cell wall water depends on the proportion of solid in the sample tissue whereas free water depends on the porosity of the material.

Keywords: intracellular water, intercellular water, cell wall water, physical property, pear

Procedia PDF Downloads 243

Authors: Natcha Lueangapapong, Chariya Chuthapisith, Lunliya Thampratankul

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Background: There is a need to find an appropriate tool to help healthcare providers determine sleep problems in children for early diagnosis and management. The Japanese Sleep Questionnaire for Preschoolers (JSQ-P) is a parent-reported sleep questionnaire that has good psychometric properties and can be used in the context of Asian culture, which is likely suitable for Thai children. Objectives: This study aimed to translate and validate the Japanese Sleep Questionnaire for Preschoolers (JSQ-P) into a Thai version and to evaluate factors associated with sleep disorders in preschoolers. Methods: After approval by the original developer, the cross-cultural adaptation process of JSQ-P was performed, including forward translation, reconciliation, backward translation, and final approval of the Thai version of JSQ-P (TH-JSQ-P) by the original creator. This study was conducted between March 2021 and February 2022. The TH-JSQ-P was completed by 2,613 guardians whose children were aged 2-6 years twice in 10-14 days to assess its reliability and validity. Content validity was measured by an index of item-objective congruence (IOC) and a content validity index (CVI). Face validity, content validity, structural validity, construct validity (discriminant validity), criterion validity and predictive validity were assessed. The sensitivity and specificity of the TH-JSQ-P were also measured by using a total JSQ-P score cutoff point 84, recommended by the original JSQ-P and each subscale score among the clinical samples of obstructive sleep apnea syndrome. Results: Internal consistency reliability, evaluated by Cronbach’s α coefficient, showed acceptable reliability in all subscales of JSQ-P. It also had good test-retest reliability, as the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) for all items ranged between 0.42-0.84. The content validity was acceptable. For structural validity, our results indicated that the final factor solution for the Th-JSQ-P was comparable to the original JSQ-P. For construct validity, age group was one of the clinical parameters associated with some sleep problems. In detail, parasomnias, insomnia, daytime excessive sleepiness and sleep habits significantly decreased when the children got older; on the other hand, insufficient sleep was significantly increased with age. For criterion validity, all subscales showed a correlation with the Epworth Sleepiness Scale (r = -0.049-0.349). In predictive validity, the Epworth Sleepiness Scale was significantly a strong factor that correlated to sleep problems in all subscales of JSQ-P except in the subscale of sleep habit. The sensitivity and specificity of the total JSQ-P score were 0.72 and 0.66, respectively. Conclusion: The Thai version of JSQ-P has good internal consistency reliability and test-retest reliability. It passed 6 validity tests, and this can be used to evaluate sleep problems in preschool children in Thailand. Furthermore, it has satisfactory general psychometric properties and good reliability and validity. The data collected in examining the sensitivity of the Thai version revealed that the JSQ-P could detect differences in sleep problems among children with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome. This confirmed that the measure is sensitive and can be used to discriminate sleep problems among different children.

Keywords: preschooler, questionnaire, validation, Thai version

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Authors: Christo Nicholls

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The National Electricity Grid (NEG) in South Africa has been under strain for the last five years. This overburden of the NEG led Eskom (the State-Owned Entity responsible for the NEG) to implement a blunt methodology to assist them in reducing the maximum demand (MD) on the NEG, when required, called Loadshedding. The challenge of this methodology is that not only does it lead to immense technical issues with the distribution network equipment, e.g., transformers, due to the frequent abrupt off and on switching, it also has a broader negative fiscal impact on the distributors, as their key consumers (commercial & industrial) are now grid defecting due to the lack of Electricity Security Provision (ESP). This paper provides a pragmatic alternative methodology utilizing specific functionalities embedded within direct-connect single and three-phase Advanced Meter Infrastructure (AMI) Solutions deployed within the distribution network, in conjunction with a Multi-Agent Systems Based AI implementation focused on Automated Negotiation Peer-2-Peer trading. The results of this research clearly illustrate, not only does methodology provide a factual percentage contribution towards the NEG MD at the point of consideration, it also allows the distributor to leverage the real-time MD data from key consumers to activate complex, yet impact-measurable Demand Response (DR) programs.

Keywords: AI, AMI, demand response, multi-agent

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Authors: Wendy Carolina Gomez Ramirez, Rodulfo Ospina Torres

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Thygater aethiops is a species of solitary bee with a neotropical distribution that has been adapted to live in urban environments. This species of bee presents a marked sexual dimorphism since the males have antenna almost as long as their body different from the females that present antenna with smaller size. In this work, placoid sensilla were studied, which are structures that appear in the antenna and are involved in the detection of substances both, for reproduction and for the search of food. The aim of this study was to evaluate the differences between these sensory structures in the different sexes, for which males and females were captured. Later some body measures were taken such as fresh weight with abdomen and without it, since the weight could be modified by the stomach content; other measures were taken as the total antenna length and length of the flagellum and flagelomere. After negative imprints of the antenna were made using nail polish, the imprint was cut with a microblade and mounted onto a microscope slide. The placoid sensilla were visible on the imprint, so they were counted manually on the 100x objective lens of the optical microscope. Initially, the males presented a specific distribution pattern in two types of sensilla: trichoid and placoid, the trichoid were found aligned in the dorsal face of the antenna and the placoid were distributed along the entire antenna; that was different to the females since they did not present a distribution pattern the sensilla were randomly organized. It was obtained that the males, because they have a longer antenna, have a greater number of sensilla in relation to the females. Additionally, it was found that there was no relationship between the weight and the number of sensilla, but there was a positive relationship between the length of the antenna, the length of the flagellum and the number of sensilla. The relationship between the number of sensilla per unit area in each of the sexes was also calculated, which showed that, on average, males have 4.2 ± 0.38 sensilla per unit area and females present 2.2 ± 0.20 and likewise a significant difference between sexes. This dimorphism found may be related to the sexual behavior of the species, since it has been demonstrated that males are more adapted to the perception of substances related to reproduction than to the search of food.

Keywords: antenna, olfactory organ, sensilla, sexual dimorphism, solitary bees

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Authors: Mark Harmon, Abdolghani Ebrahimi, Patrick Lucey, Diego Klabjan

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In this paper, we predict the likelihood of a player making a shot in basketball from multiagent trajectories. Previous approaches to similar problems center on hand-crafting features to capture domain-specific knowledge. Although intuitive, recent work in deep learning has shown, this approach is prone to missing important predictive features. To circumvent this issue, we present a convolutional neural network (CNN) approach where we initially represent the multiagent behavior as an image. To encode the adversarial nature of basketball, we use a multichannel image which we then feed into a CNN. Additionally, to capture the temporal aspect of the trajectories, we use “fading.” We find that this approach is superior to a traditional FFN model. By using gradient ascent, we were able to discover what the CNN filters look for during training. Last, we find that a combined FFN+CNN is the best performing network with an error rate of 39%.

Keywords: basketball, computer vision, image processing, convolutional neural network

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Authors: Amin Nezarat, Naeime Seifadini

Abstract:

Trip mode selection is a behavioral characteristic of passengers with immense importance for travel demand analysis, transportation planning, and traffic management. Identification of trip mode distribution will allow transportation authorities to adopt appropriate strategies to reduce travel time, traffic and air pollution. The majority of existing trip mode inference models operate based on human selected features and traditional machine learning algorithms. However, human selected features are sensitive to changes in traffic and environmental conditions and susceptible to personal biases, which can make them inefficient. One way to overcome these problems is to use neural networks capable of extracting high-level features from raw input. In this study, the convolutional neural network (CNN) architecture is used to predict the trip mode distribution based on raw GPS trajectory data. The key innovation of this paper is the design of the layout of the input layer of CNN as well as normalization operation, in a way that is not only compatible with the CNN architecture but can also represent the fundamental features of motion including speed, acceleration, jerk, and Bearing rate. The highest prediction accuracy achieved with the proposed configuration for the convolutional neural network with batch normalization is 85.26%.

Keywords: predicting, deep learning, neural network, urban trip

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Authors: Zhaopeng Xuan, Yuan Bian, C. Cailleaux, Jing Qin, S. Traore

Abstract:

Traditional software engineering allows engineers to propose to their clients multiple specialized software distributions assembled from a shared set of software assets. The management of these assets however requires a trade-off between client satisfaction and software engineering process. Clients have more and more difficult to find a distribution or components based on their needs from all of distributed repositories. This paper proposes a software engineering for a user-driven software product line in which engineers define a feature model but users drive the actual software distribution on demand. This approach makes the user become final actor as a release manager in software engineering process, increasing user product satisfaction and simplifying user operations to find required components. In addition, it provides a way for engineers to manage and assembly large software families. As a proof of concept, a user-driven software product line is implemented for eclipse, an integrated development environment. An eclipse feature model is defined, which is exposed to users on a cloud-based built platform from which clients can download individualized Eclipse distributions.

Keywords: software product line, model-driven development, reverse engineering and refactoring, agile method

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Authors: Mojtaba Ahmadabadi, Akbar Masoudi, Morteza Rezai

Abstract:

In this paper, using the finite element method, the effect of soil and wall characteristics was investigated. Thirty and two different models were studied by different parameters. These studies could calculate displacement at any height of the wall for frictional-cohesive soils. The main purpose of this research is to determine the most effective soil characteristics in reducing the wall displacement. Comparing different models showed that the overall increase in internal friction angle, angle of friction between soil and wall and modulus of elasticity reduce the replacement of the wall. In addition, increase in special weight of soil will increase the wall displacement. Based on results, it can be said that all wall displacements were overturning and in the backfill, soil was bulging. Results show that the highest impact is seen in reducing wall displacement, internal friction angle, and the angle friction between soil and wall. One of the advantages of this study is taking into account all the parameters of the soil and walls replacement distribution in wall and backfill soil. In this paper, using the finite element method and considering all parameters of the soil, we investigated the impact of soil parameter in wall displacement. The aim of this study is to provide the best conditions in reducing the wall displacement and displacement wall and soil distribution.

Keywords: retaining wall, fem, soil and wall interaction, angle of internal friction of the soil, wall displacement

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Authors: M. Lizzy Madiwani, Ignatious Ncube, Evelyn Madoroba

Abstract:

This study was designed to determine the distribution of pathogenic bacteria in household raised chickens and study their virulence and antibiotic profiles. For this purpose, 40 chickens were purchased from families in the Capricorn district and sacrificed for sampling. Tissues were cultured on different bacteriological media followed by biotyping using Matrix-assisted Laser Desorption Ionization-time of Flight (MALDI-TOF). Disk diffusion test was performed to determine the antibiotic susceptibility profiles of these bacteria. Out of a total of 160 tissue samples evaluated, E. coli and Salmonella were detected in these tissues. Furthermore, determination of the pathogenic E. coli and Salmonella strains at species level using primer sets that target selected genes of interest in the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay was employed. The invA gene, a confirmatory gene of Salmonella was detected in all the Salmonella isolates. The study revealed that there is a high distribution of Salmonella and pathogenic E. coli in these chickens. Therefore, further studies on identification at the species level are highly recommended to provide management and sanitation practices to lower this prevalence. The antimicrobial susceptibly data generated from this study can be a valuable reference to veterinarians for treating bacterial diseases in poultry.

Keywords: antimicrobial, Escherichia coli, pathogens, Salmonella

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Authors: Obe Olumide Olayinka, Victor Balanica, Eugen Neagoe

Abstract:

The effects of hypertension are often lethal thus its early detection and prevention is very important for everybody. In this paper, a neural network (NN) model was developed and trained based on a dataset of hypertension causative parameters in order to forecast the likelihood of occurrence of hypertension in patients. Our research goal was to analyze the potential of the presented NN to predict, for a period of time, the risk of hypertension or the risk of developing this disease for patients that are or not currently hypertensive. The results of the analysis for a given patient can support doctors in taking pro-active measures for averting the occurrence of hypertension such as recommendations regarding the patient behavior in order to lower his hypertension risk. Moreover, the paper envisages a set of three example scenarios in order to determine the age when the patient becomes hypertensive, i.e. determine the threshold for hypertensive age, to analyze what happens if the threshold hypertensive age is set to a certain age and the weight of the patient if being varied, and, to set the ideal weight for the patient and analyze what happens with the threshold of hypertensive age.

Keywords: neural network, hypertension, data set, training set, supervised learning

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Authors: Biswajit Seal, Dushyant Kumar, Shambhu Nath, A. B. Raju

Abstract:

Extension of blast furnace campaign life is highly desired for blast furnace operators mainly because of reduction of operating cost and to avoid capital expenditure cost. Tata Steel Ltd, Jamshedpur plant operates seven blast furnaces with combination of old and new technologies. The focus of Tata Steel Ltd is to push for increasing productivity with good quality product and increasing campaign life. This has been challenging for older furnaces because older furnaces are generally equipped with less automation, old design and old equipment. Good operational practices, appropriate remedial measures, and regular planned maintenance helps to achieve long campaign life of old furnaces. Good operating practices like stable and consistent productivity, control of burden distribution, remedial measures like stack gunning and shotcreting for protection of stack wall, enhanced cooling system, and intermediate stack repair helps to achieve long campaign life of old blast furnaces. This paper describes experiences with the current old equipment and design of Tata Steel’s D Blast Furnace for campaign life extension.

Keywords: blast furnace, burden distribution, campaign life, productivity

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Authors: Amir Taghizadeh Vahed, Adithya Thaduri

Abstract:

Shovels are the main components in the mining transportation system. The productivity of the mines depends on the availability of shovels due to its high capital and operating costs. The unplanned failure/shutdowns of a shovel results in higher repair costs, increase in downtime, as well as increasing indirect cost (i.e. loss of production and company’s reputation). In order to mitigate these failures, predictive maintenance can be useful approach using failure prediction. The modern mining machinery or shovels collect huge datasets automatically; it consists of reliability and maintenance data. However, the gathered datasets are useless until the information and knowledge of data are extracted. Machine learning as well as data mining, which has a major role in recent studies, has been used for the knowledge discovery process. In this study, data mining and machine learning approaches are implemented to detect not only anomalies but also patterns from a dataset and further detection of failures.

Keywords: maintenance, machine learning, shovel, conditional based monitoring

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Authors: Jie Lin, Yiwen Pan, Li Zhang, Zhangyong Xia

Abstract:

Atherosclerosis is a chronic inflammatory disease characterized by the accumulation of lipids, immune cells, and extracellular matrix in the arterial walls. This pathological process can lead to the formation of plaques that can obstruct blood flow and trigger various cardiovascular diseases such as heart attack and stroke. The underlying molecular mechanisms still remain unclear, although many studies revealed the dysfunction of endothelial cells, recruitment and activation of monocytes and macrophages, and the production of pro-inflammatory cytokines and chemokines in atherosclerosis. This study aimed to identify hub genes involved in the progression of atherosclerosis and to analyze their biological function in silico, thereby enhancing our understanding of the disease’s molecular mechanisms. Through the analysis of microarray data, we examined the gene expression in media and neo-intima from plaques, as well as distant macroscopically intact tissue, across a cohort of 32 hypertensive patients. Initially, 112 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were identified. Subsequent immune infiltration analysis indicated a predominant presence of 27 immune cell types in the atherosclerosis group, particularly noting an increase in monocytes and macrophages. In the Weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA), 10 modules with a minimum of 30 genes were defined as key modules, with blue, dark, Oliver green and sky-blue modules being the most significant. These modules corresponded respectively to monocyte, activated B cell, and activated CD4 T cell gene patterns, revealing a strong morphological-genetic correlation. From these three gene patterns (modules morphology), a total of 2509 key genes (Gene Significance >0.2, module membership>0.8) were extracted. Six hub genes (CD36, DPP4, HMOX1, PLA2G7, PLN2, and ACADL) were then identified by intersecting 2509 key genes, 102 DEGs with lipid-related genes from the Genecard database. The bio-functional analysis of six hub genes was estimated by a robust classifier with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.873 in the ROC plot, indicating excellent efficacy in differentiating between the disease and control group. Moreover, PCA visualization demonstrated clear separation between the groups based on these six hub genes, suggesting their potential utility as classification features in predictive models. Protein-protein interaction (PPI) analysis highlighted DPP4 as the most interconnected gene. Within the constructed key gene-drug network, 462 drugs were predicted, with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) being identified as a potential therapeutic agent for modulating DPP4 expression. In summary, our study identified critical hub genes implicated in the progression of atherosclerosis through comprehensive bioinformatic analyses. These findings not only advance our understanding of the disease but also pave the way for applying similar analytical frameworks and predictive models to other diseases, thereby broadening the potential for clinical applications and therapeutic discoveries.

Keywords: atherosclerosis, hub genes, drug prediction, bioinformatics

Procedia PDF Downloads 58