Search results for: systems management
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 17345

Search results for: systems management

3215 Predictive Value Modified Sick Neonatal Score (MSNS) On Critically Ill Neonates Outcome Treated in Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU)

Authors: Oktavian Prasetia Wardana, Martono Tri Utomo, Risa Etika, Kartika Darma Handayani, Dina Angelika, Wurry Ayuningtyas

Abstract:

Background: Critically ill neonates are newborn babies with high-risk factors that potentially cause disability and/or death. Scoring systems for determining the severity of the disease have been widely developed as well as some designs for use in neonates. The SNAPPE-II method, which has been used as a mortality predictor scoring system in several referral centers, was found to be slow in assessing the outcome of critically ill neonates in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU). Objective: To analyze the predictive value of MSNS on the outcome of critically ill neonates at the time of arrival up to 24 hours after being admitted to the NICU. Methods: A longitudinal observational analytic study based on medical record data was conducted from January to August 2022. Each sample was recorded from medical record data, including data on gestational age, mode of delivery, APGAR score at birth, resuscitation measures at birth, duration of resuscitation, post-resuscitation ventilation, physical examination at birth (including vital signs and any congenital abnormalities), the results of routine laboratory examinations, as well as the neonatal outcomes. Results: This study involved 105 critically ill neonates who were admitted to the NICU. The outcome of critically ill neonates was 50 (47.6%) neonates died, and 55 (52.4%) neonates lived. There were more males than females (61% vs. 39%). The mean gestational age of the subjects in this study was 33.8 ± 4.28 weeks, with the mean birth weight of the subjects being 1820.31 ± 33.18 g. The mean MSNS score of neonates with a deadly outcome was lower than that of the lived outcome. ROC curve with a cut point MSNS score <10.5 obtained an AUC of 93.5% (95% CI: 88.3-98.6) with a sensitivity value of 84% (95% CI: 80.5-94.9), specificity 80 % (CI 95%: 88.3-98.6), Positive Predictive Value (PPV) 79.2%, Negative Predictive Value (NPV) 84.6%, Risk Ratio (RR) 5.14 with Hosmer & Lemeshow test results p>0.05. Conclusion: The MSNS score has a good predictive value and good calibration of the outcomes of critically ill neonates admitted to the NICU.

Keywords: critically ill neonate, outcome, MSNS, NICU, predictive value

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3214 A Simple Chemical Precipitation Method of Titanium Dioxide Nanoparticles Using Polyvinyl Pyrrolidone as a Capping Agent and Their Characterization

Authors: V. P. Muhamed Shajudheen, K. Viswanathan, K. Anitha Rani, A. Uma Maheswari, S. Saravana Kumar

Abstract:

In this paper, a simple chemical precipitation route for the preparation of titanium dioxide nanoparticles, synthesized by using titanium tetra isopropoxide as a precursor and polyvinyl pyrrolidone (PVP) as a capping agent, is reported. The Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) and Thermo Gravimetric Analysis (TGA) of the samples were recorded and the phase transformation temperature of titanium hydroxide, Ti(OH)4 to titanium oxide, TiO2 was investigated. The as-prepared Ti(OH)4 precipitate was annealed at 800°C to obtain TiO2 nanoparticles. The thermal, structural, morphological and textural characterizations of the TiO2 nanoparticle samples were carried out by different techniques such as DSC-TGA, X-Ray Diffraction (XRD), Fourier Transform Infra-Red spectroscopy (FTIR), Micro Raman spectroscopy, UV-Visible absorption spectroscopy (UV-Vis), Photoluminescence spectroscopy (PL) and Field Effect Scanning Electron Microscopy (FESEM) techniques. The as-prepared precipitate was characterized using DSC-TGA and confirmed the mass loss of around 30%. XRD results exhibited no diffraction peaks attributable to anatase phase, for the reaction products, after the solvent removal. The results indicate that the product is purely rutile. The vibrational frequencies of two main absorption bands of prepared samples are discussed from the results of the FTIR analysis. The formation of nanosphere of diameter of the order of 10 nm, has been confirmed by FESEM. The optical band gap was found by using UV-Visible spectrum. From photoluminescence spectra, a strong emission was observed. The obtained results suggest that this method provides a simple, efficient and versatile technique for preparing TiO2 nanoparticles and it has the potential to be applied to other systems for photocatalytic activity.

Keywords: TiO2 nanoparticles, chemical precipitation route, phase transition, Fourier Transform Infra-Red spectroscopy (FTIR), micro-Raman spectroscopy, UV-Visible absorption spectroscopy (UV-Vis), Photoluminescence Spectroscopy (PL) and Field Effect Scanning electron microscopy (FESEM)

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3213 “Chasing Hope”: Parents’ Perspectives on Complementary and Alternative Interventions for Autism Spectrum Disorder Children in Kazakhstan

Authors: Sofiya An, Akbota Kanderzhanova, Assel Akhmetova, Faye Foster, Chee K. Chan

Abstract:

Healthcare, education and social support for children with autism in Kazakhstan has been evolving and transforming over the last three decades. There is still limited knowledge of the use of complementary and alternative medicine by families caring for autistic children in this post-Soviet region. An exploratory qualitative focus group study of Kazakhstani families was carried out to capture and understand their experiences of using complementary and alternative (CAM) medicine. A total of six focus groups were conducted in five cities across the country including Nur-Sultan, Almaty, Kyzylorda, Karaganda and Taraz. The perceived factors driving the availability, choice, and use of complementary and alternative medicine by families of autistic children in the country were distilled and evaluated. The data collected was analyzed using a framework analysis and themes and subthemes were developed. Two major themes stood out. The first was the “unmet needs”, which relates to the predisposing factors that motivate parents to CAM uptake, and the second was the “chasing hope”, which relates to the enabling factors that facilitate parents’ uptake of CAM. Fear of missing out (FOMO) is a latent underlying motivation underscoring these two themes as well. Parents of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) children in Kazakhstan have to deal with many challenges when seeking treatment for their children with ASD. They are prepared and resort to try out whatever CAM interventions available. The motivation and rationale of choice of use is driven by the lack of options and the hope of any potential positive outcome rather than from rational decisions based on efficacy or the evidence-based data of CAM. Parents get desperate and are willing to try CAM regardless of and independent of their cultural and belief systems and they do not want to miss out just in case it might work. This study also gives an international and cross-cultural perspective on the motives, choice and practice of parents with ASD children using CAM in Kazakhstan, a Central Asian country.

Keywords: autism spectrum disorder, Central Asia, complementary and alternative medicine, cross-cultural perspective, qualitative research

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3212 Public Policy as a Component of Entrepreneurship Ecosystems: Challenges of Implementation

Authors: José Batista de Souza Neto

Abstract:

This research project has as its theme the implementation of public policies to support micro and small businesses (MSEs). The research problem defined was how public policies for access to markets that drive the entrepreneurial ecosystem of MSEs are implemented. The general objective of this research is to understand the process of implementing a public policy to support the entrepreneurial ecosystem of MSEs by the Support Service for Micro and Small Enterprises of the State of São Paulo (SEBRAESP). Public policies are constituent elements of entrepreneurship ecosystems that influence the creation and development of ventures from the action of the entrepreneur. At the end of the research, it is expected to achieve the results for the following specific objectives: (a) understand how the entrepreneurial ecosystem of MSEs is constituted; (b) understand how market access public policies for MSEs are designed and implemented; (c) understand SEBRAE's role in the entrepreneurship ecosystem; and (d) offer an action plan and monitor its execution up to march, 2023. The field research will be conducted based on Action Research, with a qualitative and longitudinal approach to the data. Data collection will be based on narratives produced since 2019 when the decision to implement Comércio Brasil program, a public policy focused on generating market access for 4280 MSEs yearly, was made. The narratives will be analyzed by the method of document analysis and narrative analysis. It is expected that the research will consolidate the relevance of public policies to market access for MSEs and the role of SEBRAE as a protagonist in the implementation of these public policies in the entrepreneurship ecosystem will be demonstrated. Action research is recognized as an intervention method, it is expected that this research will corroborate its role in supporting management processes.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, entrepreneurship ecosystem, public policies, SEBRAE, action research

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3211 Efficacy of Methyl Eugenol and Food-Based Lures in Trapping Oriental Fruit Fly Bactrocera dorsalis (Diptera: Tephritidae) on Mango Homestead Trees

Authors: Juliana Amaka Ugwu

Abstract:

Trapping efficiency of methyl eugenol and three locally made food-based lures were evaluated in three locations for trapping of B. dorsalis on mango homestead trees in Ibadan South west Nigeria. The treatments were methyl eugenol, brewery waste, pineapple juice, orange juice, and control (water). The experiment was laid in a Complete Randomized Block Design (CRBD) and replicated three times in each location. Data collected were subjected to analysis of variance and significant means were separated by Turkey’s test. The results showed that B. dorsalis was recorded in all locations of study. Methyl eugenol significantly (P < 0.05) trapped higher population of B. dorsalis in all the study area. The population density of B. dorsalis was highest during the ripening period of mango in all locations. The percentage trapped flies after 7 weeks were 77.85%-82.38% (methyl eugenol), 7.29%-8.64% (pineapple juice), 5.62-7.62% (brewery waste), 4.41%-5.95% (orange juice), and 0.24-0.47% (control). There were no significance differences (p > 0.05) on the population of B. dorsalis trapped in all locations. Similarly, there were no significant differences (p > 0.05) on the population of flies trapped among the food attractants. However, the three food attractants significantly (p < 0.05) trapped higher flies than control. Methyl eugenol trapped only male flies while brewery waste and other food based attractants trapped both male and female flies. The food baits tested were promising attractants for trapping B. dorsalis on mango homestead tress, hence increased dosage could be considered for monitoring and mass trapping as management strategies against fruit fly infestation.

Keywords: attractants, trapping, mango, Bactrocera dorsalis

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3210 Using Geographic Information System and Analytic Hierarchy Process for Detecting Forest Degradation in Benslimane Forest, Morocco

Authors: Loubna Khalile, Hicham Lahlaoi, Hassan Rhinane, A. Kaoukaya, S. Fal

Abstract:

Green spaces is an essential element, they contribute to improving the quality of lives of the towns around them. They are a place of relaxation, walk and rest a playground for sport and youths. According to United Nations Organization Forests cover 31% of the land. In Morocco in 2013 that cover 12.65 % of the total land area, still, a small proportion compared to the natural needs of forests as a green lung of our planet. The Benslimane Forest is a large green area It belongs to Chaouia-Ouardigha Region and Greater Casablanca Region, it is located geographically between Casablanca is considered the economic and business Capital of Morocco and Rabat the national political capital, with an area of 12261.80 Hectares. The essential problem usually encountered in suburban forests, is visitation and tourism pressure it is anthropogenic actions, as well as other ecological and environmental factors. In recent decades, Morocco has experienced a drought year that has influenced the forest with increasing human pressure and every day it suffers heavy losses, as well as over-exploitation. The Moroccan forest ecosystems are weak with intense ecological variation, domanial and imposed usage rights granted to the population; forests are experiencing a significant deterioration due to forgetfulness and immoderate use of forest resources which can influence the destruction of animal habitats, vegetation, water cycle and climate. The purpose of this study is to make a model of the degree of degradation of the forest and know the causes for prevention by using remote sensing and geographic information systems by introducing climate and ancillary data. Analytic hierarchy process was used to find out the degree of influence and the weight of each parameter, in this case, it is found that anthropogenic activities have a fairly significant impact has thus influenced the climate.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, degradation, forest, geographic information system

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3209 Self-Regulated Learning: A Required Skill for Web 2.0 Internet-Based Learning

Authors: Pieter Conradie, M. Marina Moller

Abstract:

Web 2.0 Internet-based technologies have intruded all aspects of human life. Presently, this phenomenon is especially evident in the educational context, with increased disruptive Web 2.0 technology infusions dramatically changing educational practice. The most prominent of these Web 2.0 intrusions can be identified as Massive Open Online Courses (Coursera, EdX), video and photo sharing sites (Youtube, Flickr, Instagram), and Web 2.0 online tools utilize to create Personal Learning Environments (PLEs) (Symbaloo (aggregator), Delicious (social bookmarking), PBWorks (collaboration), Google+ (social networks), Wordspress (blogs), Wikispaces (wiki)). These Web 2.0 technologies have supported the realignment from a teacher-based pedagogy (didactic presentation) to a learner-based pedagogy (problem-based learning, project-based learning, blended learning), allowing greater learner autonomy. No longer is the educator the source of knowledge. Instead the educator has become the facilitator and mediator of the learner, involved in developing learner competencies to support life-long learning (continuous learning) in the 21st century. In this study, the self-regulated learning skills of thirty first-year university learners were explored by utilizing the Online Self-regulated Learning Questionnaire. Implementing an action research method, an intervention was affected towards improving the self-regulation skill set of the participants. Statistical significant results were obtained with increased self-regulated learning proficiency, positively impacting learner performance. Goal setting, time management, environment structuring, help seeking, task (learning) strategies and self-evaluation skills were confirmed as determinants of improved learner success.

Keywords: andragogy, online self-regulated learning questionnaire, self-regulated learning, web 2.0

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3208 Improving Self-Administered Medication Adherence for Older Adults: A Systematic Review

Authors: Mathumalar Loganathan, Lina Syazana, Bryony Dean Franklin

Abstract:

Background: The therapeutic benefit of self-administered medication for long-term use is limited by an average 50% non-adherence rate. Patient forgetfulness is a common factor in unintentional non-adherence. With a growing ageing population, strategies to improve self-administration of medication adherence are essential. Our aim was to review systematically the effects of interventions to optimise self-administration of medication. Method: Database searched were MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsynINFO, CINAHL from 1980 to 31 October 2013. Search terms included were ‘self-administration’, ‘self-care’, ‘medication adherence’, and ‘intervention’. Two independent reviewers undertook screening and methodological quality assessment, using the Downs and Black rating scale. Results: The search strategy retrieved 6 studies that met the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Three intervention strategies were identified: self-administration medication programme (SAMP), nursing education and medication packaging (pill calendar). A nursing education programme focused on improving patients’ behavioural self-management of drug prescribing. This was the most studied area and three studies highlighting an improvement in self-administration of medication. Conclusion: Results are mixed and there is no one interventional strategy that has proved to be effective. Nevertheless, self-administration of medication programme seems to show most promise. A multi-faceted approach and clearer policy guideline are likely to be required to improve prescribing for these vulnerable patients. Mixed results were found for SAMP. Medication packaging (pill calendar) was evaluated in one study showing a significant improvement in self-administration of medication. A meta-analysis could not be performed due to heterogeneity in the outcome measures.

Keywords: self-administered medication, intervention, prescribing, older patients

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3207 Conductivity-Depth Inversion of Large Loop Transient Electromagnetic Sounding Data over Layered Earth Models

Authors: Ravi Ande, Mousumi Hazari

Abstract:

One of the common geophysical techniques for mapping subsurface geo-electrical structures, extensive hydro-geological research, and engineering and environmental geophysics applications is the use of time domain electromagnetic (TDEM)/transient electromagnetic (TEM) soundings. A large transmitter loop for energising the ground and a small receiver loop or magnetometer for recording the transient voltage or magnetic field in the air or on the surface of the earth, with the receiver at the center of the loop or at any random point inside or outside the source loop, make up a large loop TEM system. In general, one can acquire data using one of the configurations with a large loop source, namely, with the receiver at the center point of the loop (central loop method), at an arbitrary in-loop point (in-loop method), coincident with the transmitter loop (coincidence-loop method), and at an arbitrary offset loop point (offset-loop method), respectively. Because of the mathematical simplicity associated with the expressions of EM fields, as compared to the in-loop and offset-loop systems, the central loop system (for ground surveys) and coincident loop system (for ground as well as airborne surveys) have been developed and used extensively for the exploration of mineral and geothermal resources, for mapping contaminated groundwater caused by hazardous waste and thickness of permafrost layer. Because a proper analytical expression for the TEM response over the layered earth model for the large loop TEM system does not exist, the forward problem used in this inversion scheme is first formulated in the frequency domain and then it is transformed in the time domain using Fourier cosine or sine transforms. Using the EMLCLLER algorithm, the forward computation is initially carried out in the frequency domain. As a result, the EMLCLLER modified the forward calculation scheme in NLSTCI to compute frequency domain answers before converting them to the time domain using Fourier Cosine and/or Sine transforms.

Keywords: time domain electromagnetic (TDEM), TEM system, geoelectrical sounding structure, Fourier cosine

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3206 Supervisory Emotional Display Affects Employee’s Well-Being

Authors: Huan Zhang, Darius K. S Chan

Abstract:

Despite a large number of studies linking emotional labor and its detrimental impact for laborer, research on how emotional labor would influence the receiver is still in its infancy. Especially under the call for “people management”, supervisors inside the organization are more inclined to display happy mood to support their employees, thus endorsing emotional labor. The present study focuses on the employees in the service industry as emotional labor recipients and investigates how they respond to their supervisors’ emotional display, given their sensitivity to emotional cues. Targeted at a sample of 250 survey data from a wide range of customer service professions, this ongoing study examines how perceived supervisory emotional labor would moderate the relationship between employees surface acting and their well-being. Our major hypotheses are that employees’ surface acting predicts well-being level, and that perceived supervisory emotional labor to moderate the surface acting—outcome links. Preliminary findings have provided some support to the hypothesized model. Specifically, supervisors who are perceived to be high in surface acting are also regarded as fake and pseudo, hence the enhancing the detrimental effect of employees’ surface acting is attenuated, resulting in lower job satisfaction, higher physical stress and burnout; whereas perceived high supervisor’s deep acting, as associated with genuine and authenticity, buffers the negative impact and leads to higher job satisfaction, lower physical stress and burnout. This study first confirms the negative impacts of the surface acting on well-being for service industry employees as laborer and then extends the emotional labor studies by considering them as recipients of supervisory emotional labor. The findings provide insights for leaders by pointing out the importance of authentic emotional expression in workplace.

Keywords: perceived supervisory emotional labor, surface acting, well-being

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3205 Comparative Study to Evaluate the Efficacy of Control Criterion in Determining Consolidation Scope in the Public Sector

Authors: Batool Zarei

Abstract:

This study aims to answer this question whether control criterion with two elements of power and benefit which is introduced as 'control criterion of consolidation scope' in national and international standards of accounting in public sector (and also private sector) is efficient enough or not. The methodology of this study is comparative and the results of this research are significantly generalizable, due to the given importance to the sample of countries which were studied. Findings of this study states that in spite of pervasive use of control criterion (including 2 elements of power and benefit), criteria for determining the existence of control in public sector accounting standards, are not efficient enough to determine the consolidation scope of whole of government financial statements in a way that meet decision making and accountability needs of managers, policy makers and supervisors; specially parliament. Therefore, the researcher believes that for determining consolidation scope in public sector, in addition to economic view, it is better to pay attention to budgetary, legal and statistical concepts and also to practical and financial risk and define indicators for proving the existence of control (power and benefit) which include accountability relationships (budgetary relation, legal form and nature of activity). these findings also reveals the necessity of passing a comprehensive public financial management (PFM) legislation in order to redefine the characteristics of public sector entities and whole of government financial statements scope and review Statistics organizations and central banks duties for preparing government financial statistics and national accounts in order to achieve sustainable development and resilient economy goals.

Keywords: control, consolidation scope, public sector accounting, government financial statistics, resilient economy

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3204 Novel Hole-Bar Standard Design and Inter-Comparison for Geometric Errors Identification on Machine-Tool

Authors: F. Viprey, H. Nouira, S. Lavernhe, C. Tournier

Abstract:

Manufacturing of freeform parts may be achieved on 5-axis machine tools currently considered as a common means of production. In particular, the geometrical quality of the freeform parts depends on the accuracy of the multi-axis structural loop, which is composed of several component assemblies maintaining the relative positioning between the tool and the workpiece. Therefore, to reach high quality of the geometries of the freeform parts the geometric errors of the 5 axis machine should be evaluated and compensated, which leads one to master the deviations between the tool and the workpiece (volumetric accuracy). In this study, a novel hole-bar design was developed and used for the characterization of the geometric errors of a RRTTT 5-axis machine tool. The hole-bar standard design is made of Invar material, selected since it is less sensitive to thermal drift. The proposed design allows once to extract 3 intrinsic parameters: one linear positioning and two straightnesses. These parameters can be obtained by measuring the cylindricity of 12 holes (bores) and 11 cylinders located on a perpendicular plane. By mathematical analysis, twelve 3D points coordinates can be identified and correspond to the intersection of each hole axis with the least square plane passing through two perpendicular neighbour cylinders axes. The hole-bar was calibrated using a precision CMM at LNE traceable the SI meter definition. The reversal technique was applied in order to separate the error forms of the hole bar from the motion errors of the mechanical guiding systems. An inter-comparison was additionally conducted between four NMIs (National Metrology Institutes) within the EMRP IND62: JRP-TIM project. Afterwards, the hole-bar was integrated in RRTTT 5-axis machine tool to identify its volumetric errors. Measurements were carried out in real time and combine raw data acquired by the Renishaw RMP600 touch probe and the linear and rotary encoders. The geometric errors of the 5 axis machine were also evaluated by an accurate laser tracer interferometer system. The results were compared to those obtained with the hole bar.

Keywords: volumetric errors, CMM, 3D hole-bar, inter-comparison

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3203 Women's Challenges in Access to Urban Spaces and Infrastructures: A Comparative Study of the Urban Infrastructures Conforming to Women's Needs in Tehran and Istanbul

Authors: Parastoo Kazemiyan

Abstract:

Over the past 80 years, in compliance with the advent of modernity in Iran and Turkey, the presence of women in economic and social arenas has creates serious challenges in the capacity of urban spaces to respond to their presence and transport because urban spaces up until then were based on masculine criteria and therefore, women could use such spaces in the company of their fathers or husbands. However, as modernity expanded by Reza Shah and Ataturk, women found the opportunity to work and be present in urban spaces alongside men and their presence in economic and social domains resulted in their presence in these spaces in the early and late hours of the day. Therefore, the city had to be transformed in structural, social, and environmental terms to accommodate women's activities and presence in various urban arenas, which was a huge step in transition from a masculine man-based culture to an all-inclusive human-based culture in these two countries. However, the optimization of urban space was subject to political changes in the two countries, leading to significant differences in designing urban spaces in Tehran and Istanbul. What shows the importance and novelty of the present study lie in the differences in urban planning and optimization in the two capital cities, which gave rise to different outcomes in desirability and quality of living in these two capital cities. Due to the importance of the topic, one of the most significant factors in desirability and acceptability of urban space for women was examined using a descriptive-analytic method based on qualitative methodology in Tehran and Istanbul. The results showed that the infrastructural factors in Istanbul, including safety of access, variety, and number of public transport modes, transparency, and supervision over public spaces have provided women with a safer and more constant presence compared to Tehran. It seems that challenges involved in providing access to urban spaces in Tehran in terms of infrastructure and function have made Tehran unable to respond to the most basic needs of its female citizens.

Keywords: gender differences, urban space security, access to transportation systems, women's challenges

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3202 Developing a Comprehensive Framework for Sustainable Urban Planning and Design: Insights From Iranian Cities

Authors: Mohammad Javad Seddighi, Avar Almukhtar

Abstract:

Sustainable urban planning and design (SUPD) play a critical role in achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs). While there are many rating systems and standards available to assess the sustainability of the built environment, there is still a lack of a comprehensive framework that can assess the quality of SUPD in a specific context. In this paper, we present a framework for assessing the quality of SUPD in Iranian cities, considering their unique cultural, social, and environmental contexts. The aim of this study is to develop a framework for assessing the quality of SUPD in Iranian cities. To achieve this aim, the following objectives are pursued review and synthesis of relevant literature on SUPD, identification of key indicators and criteria for assessing the quality of SUPD in Iranian cities application of the framework to case studies of Iranian cities and evaluation and refinement of the framework based on the results of the case studies. The framework is developed based on a review and synthesis of relevant literature on SUPD, and the identification of key indicators and criteria for assessing the quality of SUPD in Iranian cities. The framework is then applied to case studies of Iranian cities and the results are evaluated and refined. The data for this study are collected through a review of relevant literature on SUPD, including academic journals, conference proceedings, and books. The case studies of Iranian cities are selected based on their relevance and availability of data. The data are collected through interviews, site visits, and document analysis. This paper presents a framework for assessing the quality of SUPD in Iranian cities. The framework is developed based on a review and synthesis of relevant literature, identification of key indicators and criteria, application to case studies, and evaluation and refinement. The framework provides a comprehensive and context-specific approach to assessing the quality of SUPD in Iranian cities. It can be used by urban planners, designers, and policymakers to improve the sustainability and liveability of Iranian cities, and it can be adapted for use in other contexts.

Keywords: sustainable urban planning and design, framework, quality assessment, Iranian cities, case studies

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3201 Optimal Power Distribution and Power Trading Control among Loads in a Smart Grid Operated Industry

Authors: Vivek Upadhayay, Siddharth Deshmukh

Abstract:

In recent years utilization of renewable energy sources has increased majorly because of the increase in global warming concerns. Organization these days are generally operated by Micro grid or smart grid on a small level. Power optimization and optimal load tripping is possible in a smart grid based industry. In any plant or industry loads can be divided into different categories based on their importance to the plant and power requirement pattern in the working days. Coming up with an idea to divide loads in different such categories and providing different power management algorithm to each category of load can reduce the power cost and can come handy in balancing stability and reliability of power. An objective function is defined which is subjected to a variable that we are supposed to minimize. Constraint equations are formed taking difference between the power usages pattern of present day and same day of previous week. By considering the objectives of minimal load tripping and optimal power distribution the proposed problem formulation is a multi-object optimization problem. Through normalization of each objective function, the multi-objective optimization is transformed to single-objective optimization. As a result we are getting the optimized values of power required to each load for present day by use of the past values of the required power for the same day of last week. It is quite a demand response scheduling of power. These minimized values then will be distributed to each load through an algorithm used to optimize the power distribution at a greater depth. In case of power storage exceeding the power requirement, profit can be made by selling exceeding power to the main grid.

Keywords: power flow optimization, power trading enhancement, smart grid, multi-object optimization

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3200 Stabilization of Pb, Cr, Cd, Cu and Zn in Solid Waste and Sludge Pyrolysis by Modified Vermiculite

Authors: Yuxuan Yang, Zhaoping Zhong

Abstract:

Municipal solid waste and sludge are important sources of waste energy and their proper disposal is of great importance. Pyrolysis can fully decompose solid wastes and sludge, and the pyrolysis products (charcoal, oil and gas) have important recovery values. Due to the complex composition of solid wastes and sludge, the pyrolysis process at high temperatures is prone to heavy metal emissions, which are harmful to humans and the environment and reduce the safety of pyrolysis products. In this paper, heavy metal emissions during pyrolysis of municipal sewage sludge, paper mill sludge, municipal domestic waste, and aged refuse at 450-650°C were investigated and the emissions and hazards of heavy metals (Pb, Cr, Cd, Cu and Zn) were effectively reduced by adding modified vermiculite as an additive. The vermiculite was modified by intercalation with cetyltrimethylammonium bromide, which resulted in more than twice the original layer spacing of the vermiculite. Afterward, the interpolated vermiculite was made into vermiculite flakes by exfoliation modification. After that, the expansion rate of vermiculite flakes was increased by Mg2+ modification and thermal activation. The expanded vermiculite flakes were acidified to improve the textural characteristics of the vermiculite. The modified vermiculite was analysed by XRD, FT-IR, BET and SEM to clarify the modification effect. The incorporation of modified vermiculite resulted in more than 80% retention of all heavy metals at 450°C. Cr, Cu and Zn were better retained than Pb and Cd. The incorporation of modified vermiculite effectively reduced the risk of heavy metals, and all risks were low for Pb, Cr, Cu and Zn. The toxicity of all heavy metals was greatly reduced by the incorporation of modified vermiculite and the morphology of heavy metals was transformed from Exchangeable and acid-soluble (F1) and Reducible (F2) to Oxidizable (F3) and Residual (F4). In addition, the increase in temperature favored the stabilization of heavy metal forms. This study provides a new insight into the cleaner use of energy and the safe management of solid waste.

Keywords: heavy metal, pyrolysis, vermiculite, solid waste

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3199 Nanotechnology in Construction as a Building Security

Authors: Hanan Fayez Hussein

Abstract:

‘Due to increasing environmental challenges and security problems in the world such as global warming, storms, and terrorism’, humans have discovered new technologies and new materials in order to program daily life. As providing physical and psychological security is one of the primary functions of architecture, so in order to provide security, building must prevents unauthorized entry and harm to occupant and reduce the threat of attack by making building less attractive targets by new technologies such as; Nanotechnology, which has emerged as a major science and technology focus of the 21st century and will be the next industrial revolution. Nanotechnology is control of the properties of matter, and it deals with structures of the size 100 nanometers or smaller in at least one dimension and has wide application in various fields. The construction and architecture sectors were among the first to be identified as a promising application area for nanotechnology. The advantages of using nanomaterials in construction are enormous, and promises heighten building security by utilizing the strength of building materials to make our buildings more secure and get smart home. Access barriers such as wall and windows could incorporate stronger materials benefiting from nano-reinforcement utilizing nanotubes and nano composites to act as protective cover. Carbon nanotubes, as one of nanotechnology application, can be designed up to 250 times stronger than steel. Nano-enabled devices and materials offer both enhanced and, in some cases, completely new defence systems. In the addition, the small amount of carbon nanoparticles to the construction materials such as; cement, concrete, wood, glass, gypson, and steel can make these materials act as defence elements. This paper highlights the fact that nanotechnology can impact the future global security and how building’s envelop can act as a defensive cover for the building and can be resistance to any threats can attack it. Then focus on its effect on construction materials such as; Concrete can obtain by nanoadditives excellent mechanical, chemical, and physical properties with less material, which can acts as a precautionary shield to the building.

Keywords: nanomaterial, global warming, building security, smart homes

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3198 Management of Insect Pests Using Baculovirus Based Biopesticides in India

Authors: Mudasir Gani, Rakesh Kumar Gupta, Kamlesh Bali, Abdul Rouf Wani

Abstract:

The gypsy moth (Lymantria obfuscata) and tent caterpillar (Malacosoma indicum) are serious pests that attack a wide range of fruit and forest trees in Jammu & Kashmir range of North-Western Himalayas in India. Investigations were carried out to isolate and bioprospect naturally occurring nucleopolyhedroviruses (NPVs) as potent biopesticides against these pests. The biological and molecular characterization of NPV isolates from different ecosystems was conducted, and the polh, lef-8 and lef-9 genes were sequenced and subjected to phylogenetic analysis. The L. obfuscata NPV was more closely related to the L. dispar NPV, whereas M. indicum NPV was more closely related to the M. californicum NPV in the NCBI taxonomy database. Among different isolates, Bhaderwah isolates exhibited highest virus activity (LD₅₀ = 250 POBs/larvae) and speed of kill (ST₅₀ = 6.80 days) against L. obfuscata whereas Mahor isolates proved most virulent against M. indicum, with lowest LD₅₀ (257 POBs/larva) and ST₅₀ (6.80 days). The in vivo mass production for highest productivity and quality revealed that the optimum yield was obtained when 3rd instar larvae were inoculated with a viral dose of 1.44 × 105 POBs/larva and allowed to incubate for nine days for L. obfuscata. However, for M. indicum larvae, a viral dose of 2.88 × 10⁶ POBs/larva and incubation period of 10 days were found optimum. It was found that harvesting of moribund larvae yields good quality NPV. The field application of L. obfuscata NPV and M. indicum NPV against the respective host populations on apple and willow with the pre-standardized dosage of 1 × 10¹² POBs/acre reduced the larval population density up to 25-63%.

Keywords: baculoviruses, biopesticides, Lymantria obfuscata, Malacosoma indicum

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3197 A Study on the Effects of a Mindfulness Training on Managers: The Case of the Malian Company for the Development of Textile

Authors: Aboubacar Garba Konte, Wei Jun, Li Xiaohui

Abstract:

Nowadays companies are facing increasing pressure. The market environment changes more frequently than ever. Therefore, managers have to develop their agility, their performance and their capacity for innovation. Most companies look for managerial innovations to develop in their employees qualities such as motivation, commitment, creativity, autonomy or even the ability to adapt to change and manage intensive pressure. On a more collective level, companies are looking for teams that are able to organize, communicate and develop a form of collective intelligence based on cooperation and solidarity. Among the many managerial innovations that are currently developing, mindfulness (or mindfulness) is drawing the attention of a growing number of companies (Google, Apple, Sony, ING ...), These companies have implemented programs based on mindfulness. Although the concept of mindfulness and its effects have been the subject of in-depth research in the psychological field, research on mindfulness in the field of management is still in its infancy and it is necessary to evaluate its contribution to organizations. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the effects of a mindfulness training among the managers of a Malian textile company (CMDT). We conducted a case study on their experience and their managerial practices. In addition, we discuss the innovative nature of mindfulness in terms of managerial practice The results show significant positive effects on two major skills identified by managers that raise significant difficulties in their daily lives: their ability to supervise a team of employees with all that this implies in terms of interpersonal skills and their ability to organize and prioritize their activities. In addition, the research methodology sheds light on the innovative nature of mindfulness in a favorable organizational environment.

Keywords: mindfulness, manager, managerial innovation, relational skills, organization and prioritization

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3196 Binge Eating among Women Who Suffer from Psychological Abuse in Their Relationship: The Moderating Role of Defense Mechanisms

Authors: Orly Yona Drori, Shirley Ben Shlomo

Abstract:

Objectives: The participants will be able to recognize the predictors of binge eating addiction among women who suffer from psychological abuse in their relationships and will recognize the role of woman's defense mechanisms in moderating the association between psychological abuse and binge eating addiction. Methods: A convenience sample of 380 Israeli women in relationships were located via the Internet, and after consenting to participate in the study, they completed a series of structured questionnaires (The Yale Food Addiction Scale; The Defense Style Questionnaire; psychological maltreatment of women by their male partners; level of differentiation of self; sociodemographic questionnaire). Results: The higher the level of differentiation and mature defense mechanisms, the less addictive a woman is. However, the level of addiction among women who experience psychological abuse within their intimate relations is higher than women who do not experience psychological abuse in their relationship. Among women who experienced psychological abuse in their relations, the defense mechanisms moderate the association between psychological abuse within intimate relations and the extent of the addiction to binge eating. Conclusions: The study contributes to the therapy of women with binge eating addictions, as it raises awareness of therapeutic-related content that could strengthen women and help them to cope with situations in their lives without the need to binge. One of the significant variables for therapeutic work is the level of differentiation of the self. In addition, identifying the types of defense mechanisms might help to match treatment to the woman's emotional needs. The current study found also that it is important to identify the environmental systems by which the addict is surrounded, such as whether woman is in an abusive relationship. Finally the study leads to the recognition that binge eating, which is usually treated with an emphasis on nutritional behavior change, is an addiction, and as such, it requires a combination of mental, nutritional and behavioral therapy. In view of this approach, it is recommended that treating a woman who is addicted to binge eating should involve a multi-disciplinary team comprised of physicians, clinical dietitians, and clinical psychotherapists.

Keywords: binge eating, defence mechanism, food addiction, psychological abuse

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3195 Integrated Steering Method for Mitigating Performance Degradation in Six-Wheel Robot Caused by Obstacle Traversing

Authors: Saleh Kasiri Bidhendi, Shiva Tashakori

Abstract:

With the increasing application of six-wheel robots in various industries, including agriculture and environmental monitoring, there is a growing demand for efficient and reliable control systems that can improve manoeuvrability and at the same time reduce energy consumption. Moving on uneven terrains, various factors such as obstacles or soil heterogeneity can cause the robot to slip. There is limited research addressing this issue. Although the robot is supposed to track a predetermined path, sudden lateral deviation necessitates path planning. To further address this issue, explicit steering is added by activating actuators on steerable wheels, while the SMC controller still commands differential traction forces on all wheels. This integration improves energy efficiency and obstacle traversability while maintaining the merits of skid-steering, such as tight turning manoeuvrability. However, achieving the desired steer angles presents certain challenges. Inverse kinematics was initially employed to achieve the needed steering angles from the desired position, but this approach led to excessive steering without yawing the body. Switching to desired velocity values instead of position limited over-steering but caused zero lateral velocity on horizontal paths, which was problematic for unforeseen skidding. To overcome this, a proportional controller has been employed, using lateral error as its input and providing a proportional yaw angle as output, the P-controller contributes to modifying the steering angles. The controller's robustness has been verified through sensitivity analyses under critical speeds and turning radius conditions. Our findings offer valuable insights into designing more efficient steering controls for rocker-bogie mechanisms in challenging situations, emphasizing the importance of reducing energy¬ consumption.

Keywords: six-wheel robots, inverse kinematics, integrated steering, path following, manoeuvrability, energy efficiency, uneven terrains

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3194 Producing Sustained Renewable Energy and Removing Organic Pollutants from Distillery Wastewater using Consortium of Sludge Microbes

Authors: Anubha Kaushik, Raman Preet

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Distillery wastewater in the form of spent wash is a complex and strong industrial effluent, with high load of organic pollutants that may deplete dissolved oxygen on being discharged into aquatic systems and contaminate groundwater by leaching of pollutants, while untreated spent wash disposed on land acidifies the soil. Stringent legislative measures have therefore been framed in different countries for discharge standards of distillery effluent. Utilising the organic pollutants present in various types of wastes as food by mixed microbial populations is emerging as an eco-friendly approach in the recent years, in which complex organic matter is converted into simpler forms, and simultaneously useful gases are produced as renewable and clean energy sources. In the present study, wastewater from a rice bran based distillery has been used as the substrate in a dark fermenter, and native microbial consortium from the digester sludge has been used as the inoculum to treat the wastewater and produce hydrogen. After optimising the operational conditions in batch reactors, sequential batch mode and continuous flow stirred tank reactors were used to study the best operational conditions for enhanced and sustained hydrogen production and removal of pollutants. Since the rate of hydrogen production by the microbial consortium during dark fermentation is influenced by concentration of organic matter, pH and temperature, these operational conditions were optimised in batch mode studies. Maximum hydrogen production rate (347.87ml/L/d) was attained in 32h dark fermentation while a good proportion of COD also got removed from the wastewater. Slightly acidic initial pH seemed to favor biohydrogen production. In continuous stirred tank reactor, high H2 production from distillery wastewater was obtained from a relatively shorter substrate retention time (SRT) of 48h and a moderate organic loading rate (OLR) of 172 g/l/d COD.

Keywords: distillery wastewater, hydrogen, microbial consortium, organic pollution, sludge

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3193 Characterization of the Groundwater Aquifers at El Sadat City by Joint Inversion of VES and TEM Data

Authors: Usama Massoud, Abeer A. Kenawy, El-Said A. Ragab, Abbas M. Abbas, Heba M. El-Kosery

Abstract:

Vertical Electrical Sounding (VES) and Transient Electro Magnetic (TEM) survey have been applied for characterizing the groundwater aquifers at El Sadat industrial area. El-Sadat city is one of the most important industrial cities in Egypt. It has been constructed more than three decades ago at about 80 km northwest of Cairo along the Cairo–Alexandria desert road. Groundwater is the main source of water supplies required for domestic, municipal, and industrial activities in this area due to the lack of surface water sources. So, it is important to maintain this vital resource in order to sustain the development plans of this city. In this study, VES and TEM data were identically measured at 24 stations along three profiles trending NE–SW with the elongation of the study area. The measuring points were arranged in a grid like pattern with both inter-station spacing and line–line distance of about 2 km. After performing the necessary processing steps, the VES and TEM data sets were inverted individually to multi-layer models, followed by a joint inversion of both data sets. Joint inversion process has succeeded to overcome the model-equivalence problem encountered in the inversion of individual data set. Then, the joint models were used for the construction of a number of cross sections and contour maps showing the lateral and vertical distribution of the geo-electrical parameters in the subsurface medium. Interpretation of the obtained results and correlation with the available geological and hydrogeological information revealed TWO aquifer systems in the area. The shallow Pleistocene aquifer consists of sand and gravel saturated with fresh water and exhibits large thickness exceeding 200 m. The deep Pliocene aquifer is composed of clay and sand and shows low resistivity values. The water bearing layer of the Pleistocene aquifer and the upper surface of Pliocene aquifer are continuous and no structural features have cut this continuity through the investigated area.

Keywords: El Sadat city, joint inversion, VES, TEM

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3192 Comparison of Efficacy between Low-Residue Diet and Clear-Liquid Diet in Colonoscopic Bowel Preparation at a Surgical Clinic: A Randomized Controlled Trial

Authors: Sopana Wongtawee

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Purpose: Adequate bowel cleansing is essential for a high quality, effective and safe colonoscopy. The aims of this study were to compare the efficacy of bowel preparation based on a low-residue diet before 8:00 followed by a clear-liquid diet, and a low-residue diet until 16:00 one day before colonoscopy using sodium phosphate solution (Xubil ®), the side effects of the two protocols and the patient satisfaction with them. Method: This was an endoscopist-blinded, prospective, randomized, controlled trial. A total of 224 patients (112 in each group) scheduled for outpatient colonoscopy met the criteria.They were randomized to either a low-residue diet consisting of white rice porridge with either fish, chicken or eggs before 8:00 followed by a clear-liquid diet (Group 1) or a low-residue diet consisting of the same food and drink, until 16:00 the day before colonoscopy(Group 2). All of them received 45 ml of sodium phosphate solution (Xubil ®) and three glasses of water (300 ml/glass) the evening before and the morning of the procedure. The cleansing efficacy of bowel preparation was rated according to the modified Rajawithi hospital bowel preparation score scale, patient satisfaction with bowel preparation was rated using Likert scale, and side effects of the 2 protocols was assessed using a patient questionnaire. Results: The cleansing efficacy between the two groups was significantly different (p=0.02). Satisfaction with bowel preparation and side effects were not different, except for the feeling of hunger in the first group (p=0.001). Conclusion: The low-residue diet consisting of white rice porridge with fish, chicken or eggs until 16:00 one day before colonoscopy achieved a better bowel-cleansing efficacy than the protocol consisting of clear liquid all day and rice porridge only before 8:00 one day before colonoscopy.

Keywords: bowel preparation, colonoscopy, sodium phosphate solution, nursing management

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3191 An Investigation of Crop Diversity’s Impact on Income Risk of Selected Crops

Authors: Saeed Yazdani, Sima Mohamadi Amidabadi, Amir Mohamadi Nejad, Farahnaz Nekoofar

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As a result of uncertainty and doubts about the quantity of agricultural products, greater significance has been attached to risk management in the agricultural sector. Normally, farmers seek to minimize risks, and crop diversity has always been a means to reduce risk. The study at hand seeks to explore the long-term impact of crop diversity on income risk reduction. The timeframe of the study is 1998 to 2018. Initially, the Herfindahl index was used to estimate crop diversity in different periods, and next, the Hodrick-Prescott filter was applied to estimate income risk both in nominal and real terms. Finally, using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the long-term impact of crop diversity on two modes of risk for the farmer's income has been estimated. Given the long-term pattern’s results, it is evident that in the long-run, crop diversity can reduce income fluctuations in two nominal and real terms. Moreover, results showed that in case the fluctuation shock affects the agricultural income in the short run, to balance out the shock in nominal and real terms, 4 and 3 cycles are needed respectively. In other words, in each cycle, 25% and 33% of the shock impact can be removed, respectively. Thus, as the results of the error correction coefficient showed, policies need to be put in place to prevent income shocks. In case of a shock, they need to be balanced out in a four-year period, taking inflation into account, and in a three-year period irrespective of the inflation and reparative policies such as insurance services should be developed.

Keywords: risk, long-term model, Herfindahl index, time series model, vector error correction model

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3190 Utilizing Dowel-Laminated Mass Timber Components in Residential Multifamily Structures: A Case Study

Authors: Theodore Panton

Abstract:

As cities in the United States experience critical housing shortages, mass timber presents the opportunity to address this crisis in housing supply while taking advantage of the carbon-positive benefits of sustainably forested wood fiber. Mass timber, however, currently has a low level of adoption in residential multifamily structures due to the risk-averse nature of change within the construction financing, Architecture / Engineering / Contracting (AEC) communities, as well as various agency approval challenges. This study demonstrates how mass timber can be used within the cost and feasibility parameters of a typical multistory residential structure and ultimately address the need for dense urban housing. This study will utilize The Garden District, a mixed-use market-rate housing project in Woodinville, Washington, as a case study to illuminate the potential of mass timber in this application. The Garden District is currently in final stages of permit approval and will commence construction in 2023. It will be the tallest dowel-laminated timber (DLT) residential structure in the United States when completed. This case study includes economic, technical, and design reference points to demonstrate the relevance of the use of this system and its ability to deliver “triple bottom line” results. In terms of results, the study establishes scalable and repeatable approaches to project design and delivery of mass timber in multifamily residential uses and includes economic data, technical solutions, and a summary of end-user advantages. This study discusses the third party tested systems for satisfying acoustical requirements within dwelling units, a key to resolving the use of mass timber within multistory residential use. Lastly, the study will also compare the mass timber solution with a comparable cold formed steel (CFS) system with a similar program, which indicates a net carbon savings of over three million tons over the life cycle of the building.

Keywords: DLT, dowell laminated timber, mass timber, market rate multifamily

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3189 A Sustainable Design Model by Integrated Evaluation of Closed-loop Design and Supply Chain Using a Mathematical Model

Authors: Yuan-Jye Tseng, Yi-Shiuan Chen

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The paper presented a sustainable design model for integrated evaluation of the design and supply chain of a product for the sustainable objectives. To design a product, there can be alternative ways to assign the detailed specifications to fulfill the same design objectives. In the design alternative cases, different material and manufacturing processes with various supply chain activities may be required for the production. Therefore, it is required to evaluate the different design cases based on the sustainable objectives. In this research, a closed-loop design model is developed by integrating the forward design model and reverse design model. From the supply chain point of view, the decisions in the forward design model are connected with the forward supply chain. The decisions in the reverse design model are connected with the reverse supply chain considering the sustainable objectives. The purpose of this research is to develop a mathematical model for analyzing the design cases by integrated evaluating the criteria in the closed-loop design and the closed-loop supply chain. The decision variables are built to represent the design cases of the forward design and reverse design. The cost parameters in a forward design include the costs of material and manufacturing processes. The cost parameters in a reverse design include the costs of recycling, disassembly, reusing, remanufacturing, and disposing. The mathematical model is formulated to minimize the total cost under the design constraints. In practical applications, the decisions of the mathematical model can be used for selecting a design case for the purpose of sustainable design of a product. An example product is demonstrated in the paper. The test result shows that the sustainable design model is useful for integrated evaluation of the design and the supply chain to achieve the sustainable objectives.

Keywords: closed-loop design, closed-loop supply chain, design evaluation, supply chain management, sustainable design model

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3188 Soccer, a Major Social Changing Factor: Kosovo Case

Authors: Armend Kelmendi, Adnan Ahmeti

Abstract:

The purpose of our study was to assess the impact of soccer in the overall wealth fare (education, health, and economic prosperity) of youth in Kosovo (age: 7-18). The research conducted measured a number of parameters (training methodologies, conditions, community leadership impact) in a sample consisting of 6 different football clubs’ academies across the country. Fifty (50) male and female football youngsters volunteered in this study. To generate more reliable results, the analysis was conducted with the help of a set of effective project management tools and techniques (Gantt chart, Logic Network, PERT chart, Work Breakdown Structure, and Budgeting Analysis). The interviewees were interviewed under a specific lens of categories (impact in education, health, and economic prosperity). A set of questions were asked i.e. what has football provided to you and the community you live in?; Did football increase your confidence and shaped your life for better?; What was the main reason you started training in football? The results generated explain how a single sport, namely that of football in Kosovo can make a huge social change, improving key social factors in a society. There was a considerable difference between the youth clubs as far as training conditions are concerned. The study found out that despite financial constraints, two out of six clubs managed to produce twice as more talented players that were introduced to professional primary league teams in Kosovo and Albania, including other soccer teams in the region, Europe, and Asia. The study indicates that better sports policy must be formulated and associated with important financial investments in soccer for it to be considered fruitful and beneficial for players of 18 plus years of age, namely professionals.

Keywords: youth, prosperity, conditions, investments, growth, free movement

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3187 Predictors of Pelvic Vascular Injuries in Patients with Pelvic Fractures from Major Blunt Trauma

Authors: Osama Zayed

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Aim of the work: The aim of this study is to assess the predictors of pelvic vascular injuries in patients with pelvic fractures from major blunt trauma. Methods: This study was conducted as a tool-assessment study. Forty six patients with pelvic fractures from major blunt trauma will be recruited to the study arriving to department of emergency, Suez Canal University Hospital. Data were collected from questionnaire including; personal data of the studied patients and full medical history, clinical examinations, outcome measures (The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for enumeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM), laboratory and imaging studies. Patients underwent surgical interventions or further investigations based on the conventional standards for interventions. All patients were followed up during conservative, operative and post-operative periods in the hospital for interpretation the predictive scores of vascular injuries. Results: Significant predictors of vascular injuries according to computed tomography (CT) scan include age, male gender, lower Glasgow coma (GCS) scores, occurrence of hypotension, mortality rate, higher physical POSSUM scores, presence of ultrasound collection, type of management, higher systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) POSSUM scores, presence of abdominal injuries, and poor outcome. Conclusions: There was higher frequency of males than females in the studied patients. There were high probability of morbidity and low probability of mortality among patients. Our study demonstrates that POSSUM score can be used as a predictor of vascular injury in pelvis fracture patients.

Keywords: predictors, pelvic vascular injuries, pelvic fractures, major blunt trauma, POSSUM

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3186 Asset Liability Modelling for Pension Funds by Introducing Leslie Model for Population Dynamics

Authors: Kristina Sutiene, Lina Dapkute

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The paper investigates the current demographic trends that exert the sustainability of pension systems in most EU regions. Several drivers usually compose the demographic challenge, coming from the structure and trends of population in the country. As the case of research, three main variables of demographic risk in Lithuania have been singled out and have been used in making up the analysis. Over the last two decades, the country has presented a peculiar demographic situation characterized by pessimistic fertility trends, negative net migration rate and rising life expectancy that make the significant changes in labor-age population. This study, therefore, sets out to assess the relative impact of these risk factors both individually and in aggregate, while assuming economic trends to evolve historically. The evidence is presented using data of pension funds that operate in Lithuania and are financed by defined-contribution plans. To achieve this goal, the discrete-time pension fund’s value model is developed that reflects main operational modalities: contribution income from current participants and new entrants, pension disbursement and administrative expenses; it also fluctuates based on returns from investment activity. Age-structured Leslie population dynamics model has been integrated into the main model to describe the dynamics of fertility, migration and mortality rates upon age. Validation has concluded that Leslie model adequately fits the current population trends in Lithuania. The elasticity of pension system is examined using Loimaranta efficiency as a measure for comparison of plausible long-term developments of demographic risks. With respect to the research question, it was found that demographic risks have different levels of influence on future value of aggregated pension funds: The fertility rates have the highest importance, while mortality rates give only a minor impact. Further studies regarding the role of trying out different economic scenarios in the integrated model would be worthwhile.

Keywords: asset liability modelling, Leslie model, pension funds, population dynamics

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