Search results for: multilevel modelling

Authors: Emmanuel Okechukwu Nwafor, Folake Olubunmi Akintayo, Denis Alcides Rezende

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Decision tree models are versatile and interpretable machine learning algorithms widely used for both classification and regression tasks, which can be related to cities, whether physical or digital. The aim of this research is to assess how well decision tree algorithms can predict trip purposes in Makurdi, Nigeria, while also exploring their connection to the strategic digital city initiative. The research methodology involves formalizing household demographic and trips information datasets obtained from extensive survey process. Modelling and Prediction were achieved using Python Programming Language and the evaluation metrics like R-squared and mean absolute error were used to assess the decision tree algorithm's performance. The results indicate that the model performed well, with accuracies of 84% and 68%, and low MAE values of 0.188 and 0.314, on training and validation data, respectively. This suggests the model can be relied upon for future prediction. The conclusion reiterates that This model will assist decision-makers, including urban planners, transportation engineers, government officials, and commuters, in making informed decisions on transportation planning and management within the framework of a strategic digital city. Its application will enhance the efficiency, sustainability, and overall quality of transportation services in Makurdi, Nigeria.

Keywords: decision tree algorithm, trip purpose, intelligent transport, strategic digital city, travel pattern, sustainable transport

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Authors: Y. Sunecher, N. Mamode Khan, V. Jowaheer

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This paper considers the modelling of a non-stationary bivariate integer-valued autoregressive moving average of order one (BINARMA(1,1)) with correlated Poisson innovations. The BINARMA(1,1) model is specified using the binomial thinning operator and by assuming that the cross-correlation between the two series is induced by the innovation terms only. Based on these assumptions, the non-stationary marginal and joint moments of the BINARMA(1,1) are derived iteratively by using some initial stationary moments. As regards to the estimation of parameters of the proposed model, the conditional maximum likelihood (CML) estimation method is derived based on thinning and convolution properties. The forecasting equations of the BINARMA(1,1) model are also derived. A simulation study is also proposed where BINARMA(1,1) count data are generated using a multivariate Poisson R code for the innovation terms. The performance of the BINARMA(1,1) model is then assessed through a simulation experiment and the mean estimates of the model parameters obtained are all efficient, based on their standard errors. The proposed model is then used to analyse a real-life accident data on the motorway in Mauritius, based on some covariates: policemen, daily patrol, speed cameras, traffic lights and roundabouts. The BINARMA(1,1) model is applied on the accident data and the CML estimates clearly indicate a significant impact of the covariates on the number of accidents on the motorway in Mauritius. The forecasting equations also provide reliable one-step ahead forecasts.

Keywords: non-stationary, BINARMA(1, 1) model, Poisson innovations, conditional maximum likelihood, CML

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Authors: Ran Etgar, Yuval Cohen, Erel Avineri

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One of the major challenges of transportation in medium sized inner-cities (such as Tel-Aviv) is the last-mile solution. Personal rapid transit (PRT) seems like an applicable candidate for this, as it combines the benefits of personal (car) travel with the operational benefits of transit. However, the investment required for large area PRT grid is significant and there is a need to economically justify such investment by correctly evaluating the grid capacity. PRT main elements are small automated vehicles (sometimes referred to as podcars) operating on a network of specially built guideways. The research is looking at a specific concept of elevated PRT system. Literature review has revealed the drawbacks PRT modelling and simulation approaches, mainly due to the lack of consideration of technical and operational features of the system (such as headways, acceleration, safety issues); the detailed design of infrastructure (guideways, stations, and docks); the stochastic and sessional characteristics of demand; and safety regulations – all of them have a strong effect on the system performance. A highly detailed model of the system, developed in this research, is applying a discrete event simulation combined with an agent-based approach, to represent the system elements and the podecars movement logic. Applying a case study approach, the simulation model is used to study the capacity of the system, the expected throughput of the system, the utilization, and the level of service (journey time, waiting time, etc.).

Keywords: capacity, productivity measurement, PRT, simulation, transportation

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Authors: Mahdi Sadeghian, Somaye Sadeghian, Reza Dinarvand

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This paper is going to discuss two issues encountered in using PLAXIS. Both issues were monitored during application of PLAXIS to estimate the excavation-induced displacement. Column Soil Mixing (CSM) was applied to stabilise the excavation. It was understood that the estimated excavation induced deformation at the top of the CSM blocks highly depends on the material type defining pavement material adjacent to the CSM blocks. Cohesive material for pavement will result in the unrealistic connection between pavement and CSM even by defining an interface element. To find the most realistic approach, the interface defined in three different manners (1) no interface elements were applied (2) a non-cohesive soil layer was defined between pavement and CSM block to represent the friction between these materials (3) built-in interface elements in PLAXIS was used to define the boundary between the pavement and the CSM block. The result showed that the option 2 would result in more realistic results. The second issue was in the modelling of the contact line between the CSM block and an inclined layer underneath. The analysis result showed that the excavation-induced deformation highly depends on how the PLAXIS user defines the contact area. It was understood that if the contact area had defined as a point in which CSM block had intersected the layer underneath the estimated lateral displacement of CSM block would be unrealistically lower than the model in which the contact area was defined as a line.

Keywords: PLAXIS, FEM, CSM, Excavation-Induced Deformation

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Authors: Sebahat Seker

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Since there is a parallel connection between drinking water quality and public health, studies on drinking and domestic water are of vital importance. Ardahan Province is one of the provinces located in the Northeast Anatolian Region, where animal husbandry and agriculture are carried out economically. City mains water uses underground spring water as a source and is chlorinated and given to the city center by gravity. However, mains water cannot be used outside the central district of the city, and the majority of the people meet their drinking and utility water needs from the wells they have opened individually. The water element, which is vital for all living things, is the most important substance that sustains life for humans. Under normal conditions, a healthy person consumes approximately 1.8-2 liters of water. The quality and use of potable water is one of the most important issues in terms of health. The quality parameters of drinking and utility water have been revealed by the scientific world. Scientific studies on drinking water quality in the world and its impact on public health are among the most popular topics. Although our country is surrounded by water on three sides, potable water resources are very few. In the Eastern Anatolia Region, it is difficult for the public to access drinking and utility water due to the difficult conditions both climatically and geographically. In this study, samples taken from drinking and utility water at certain intervals from the stations determined, and water quality parameters will be determined. The fact that such a study has not been carried out in the region before and the knowledge of the local people about water quality is very important in terms of its original and widespread effect.

Keywords: water quality, modelling, evaluation, northeastern anatolia

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Authors: Turkan Sultan Yasar Ismail, Mehmet Cetin, M. Danial Ismail, Hakan Sevik

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Nowadays, there is a need for the real world to be translated to the virtual environment by three-dimensional visualisation for restoration and promotional modelling of historic sites in protected areas. Visualisation models have also become the very important basis for the creation of three-dimensional Geographic Information System. The protection of historical and cultural heritage and documenting in Turkey as well as all over the world is an important issue. This heritage is a bridge between the past and the future of humanity. Many historical and cultural heritages suffer neglect and for reasons arising from natural causes. This is to determine the current status of the work and documenting information from the selected buildings. This process is important for their conservation and renovation work that might be done in the future. Kastamonu city is one of the historical cities in Turkey with a number of heritage buildings. However, Tufekciler Village is not visited and famous even though it includes several historical buildings and peaceful landscape. Digital terrestrial photogrammetry is one of the most important methods used in the documentation of cultural and historical heritage. Firstly, measurements were made primarily around creating polygon mesh and 3D model drawings of the structures to be modelled on images with the move to digital media such as picture size and by subsequent visualisation process. Secondly, a restoration project is offered to the village with the concept of eco-tourism with all scales such as, interior space to landscape design.

Keywords: eco-tourism, restoration, sustainability, cultural village

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Authors: Yasaman Sanayei, Alireza Bahiraie

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This paper presents a systematic methodology based on the application of artificial neural networks for sequencing batch reactor (SBR). The SBR is a fill-and-draw biological wastewater technology, which is specially suited for nutrient removal. Employing reactive dye by Sphingomonas paucimobilis bacteria at sequence batch reactor is a novel approach of dye removal. The influent COD, MLVSS, and reaction time were selected as the process inputs and the effluent COD and BOD as the process outputs. The best possible result for the discrete pole parameter was a= 0.44. In orderto adjust the parameters of ANN, the Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) algorithm was employed. The results predicted by the model were compared to the experimental data and showed a high correlation with R2> 0.99 and a low mean absolute error (MAE). The results from this study reveal that the developed model is accurate and efficacious in predicting COD and BOD parameters of the dye-containing wastewater treated by SBR. The proposed modeling approach can be applied to other industrial wastewater treatment systems to predict effluent characteristics. Note that SBR are normally operated with constant predefined duration of the stages, thus, resulting in low efficient operation. Data obtained from the on-line electronic sensors installed in the SBR and from the control quality laboratory analysis have been used to develop the optimal architecture of two different ANN. The results have shown that the developed models can be used as efficient and cost-effective predictive tools for the system analysed.

Keywords: artificial neural network, COD removal, SBR, Sphingomonas paucimobilis

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Authors: Catarina Maria Neto Da Cruz, Ana Maria Reis D’Azevedo Breda

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The world is changing and, consequently, the young people need more sophisticated tools and skills to lead with the world’s complexity. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Learning Framework 2030 suggests an interdisciplinary knowledge as a principle for the future of education systems. In the curricular document Portuguese about the profile of students leaving compulsory education, the critical thinking and creative thinking are pointed out as skills to be developed, which imply the interconnection of different knowledge, applying it in different contexts and learning areas. Unlike primary school teachers, teachers specialized in a specific area lead to more difficulties in the implementation of interdisciplinary approaches in the classrooms and, despite the effort, the interdisciplinarity is not a common practice in schools. Statement like "Mathematics is everywhere" is unquestionable, however, many math teachers show difficulties in presenting such evidence in their classes. Mathematical modelling and problems in real contexts are promising in the development of interdisciplinary pedagogical practices and in Portugal there is a continuous training offer to contribute to the development of teachers in terms of their pedagogical approaches. But when teachers find themselves in the classroom, without a support, do they feel able to implement interdisciplinary practices? In this communication we will try to approach this issue through a case study involving a group of Mathematics teachers, who attended a training aimed at stimulating interdisciplinary practices in real contexts, namely related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Keywords: education, mathematics, teacher training, interdisciplinarity

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Authors: Ncoza Dlova, Tivani Mashamba-Thompson

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Garcinia livingstonei (Clusiaceae) extracts, morelloflavone- 7″- sulphate and sargaol were shown to be effective against hyper-pigmentation through inhibition of tyrosinase enzyme, in vitro . The aim of this study is to elucidate the structural mechanism through which morelloflavone- 7″- sulphate and sargaol binds human tyrosinase. Implementing a homology model to construct a tyrosinase model using the crystal structure of a functional unit from Octopus hemocyanin (PDB: 1JS8) as a reference template enabled us to create a human tyrosinase model. Molecular dynamics and binding free energy calculations were optimized to enable molecular dynamics simulation of the copper dependent inhibitors. Results show the importance of the hydrogen bond formation morelloflavone- 7″- sulphate and sargaol between compound and active site residues. Both complexes demonstrated the metallic coordination between compound and arginine residue as well as copper ions within the active site. The comprehensive molecular insight gained from this study should be vital in understanding the binding mechanism morelloflavone- 7″- sulphate and sargaol. Moreover, these results will assist in the design of novel of metal ion dependent enzyme inhibitors as potential anti-hyper-pigmentation disorder therapies.

Keywords: hyper-pigmentation disorders, dyschromia African skin, morelloflavone- 7″- sulphate, sagoal

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Authors: Mahadzirah Mohamad, Morliyati Mohammad, Nor Azman Mat Ali, Zainudin Awang

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Globally, youth substance abuse has been identified as the problem that causes substantial damage not only to individuals, but also to families and communities. In addition, substance abuse youths have become unproductive resources that would play lesser roles in the nation’s development. The increasing trend of substance abuse among youths has raised a lot of concern among various quarters in Malaysia. It has also been reported that Malay youths are the majority group involved in substance abuse. However, it was noted that life satisfaction had been found to be an important mitigating factor that addressed substance abuse. The objectives of the study were twofold: firstly, to ascertain the effect of life satisfaction on substance abuse among Malay youth. Secondly, to identify the role of delinquency on the relationship between life satisfaction and substance abuse. This study adopted a cross-sectional research design. Self-administered questionnaires were distributed to 500 Malay youths at the youth programmes using a two-step sampling technique: area sampling and systematic sampling. The research hypotheses were tested using Structural Equation Modelling. The findings of the study revealed that there is no significance relationship between life satisfaction and substance abuse. There is a significant inverse relationship between life satisfaction and delinquency. Moreover, delinquency has a positive significant influence on substance abuse. The use of Bootstrapping analysis proved that delinquency plays a full mediating role in the relationship between life satisfaction and substance abuse. This study suggested that life satisfaction has no effect on youth substance abuse. In order to reduce substance abuse, efforts should be undertaken to reduce delinquency behaviour by increasing youth life satisfaction.

Keywords: delinquency, life satisfaction, substance abuse, youth

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Authors: Vasujeet Singh, Pruthiviraj Nemalipuri, Vivek Vitankar, Harish Chandra Das

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For the correct prediction of thermal and hydraulic performance (bed voidage, suspension density, pressure drop, heat transfer, and combustion kinetics), one should incorporate the correct parameters in the computational fluid dynamics simulation of a fluidized bed gasifier. Scarcity of fossil fuels, and to fulfill the energy demand of the increasing population, researchers need to shift their attention to the alternative to fossil fuels. The current research work focuses on hydrodynamics behavior and gasification of sawdust inside a 2D industrial scale FBG using the Eulerian-Eulerian multifluid model. The present numerical model is validated with experimental data. Further, this model extended for the prediction of gasification characteristics of sawdust by incorporating eight heterogeneous moisture release, volatile cracking, tar cracking, tar oxidation, char combustion, CO₂ gasification, steam gasification, methanation reaction, and five homogeneous oxidation of CO, CH₄, H₂, forward and backward water gas shift (WGS) reactions. In the result section, composition of gasification products is analyzed, along with the hydrodynamics of sawdust and sand phase, heat transfer between the gas, sand and sawdust, reaction rates of different homogeneous and heterogeneous reactions is being analyzed along the height of the domain.

Keywords: devolatilization, Eulerian-Eulerian, fluidized bed gasifier, mathematical modelling, sawdust gasification

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Authors: Ayan Giri, Lukaranjan Phukan, Shantanu Karmakar

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Structure and tectonics play a vital role in ore genesis and deposition. The existence of a swelling structure below the current level of a mine leads to the discovery of ores below some permeant developments of the mine. The discovery and the extraction of the ore body are very critical to sustain the business requirement of the mine. The challenge was to extract the ore without hampering the global stability of the mine. In order to do so, different mining options were considered and analysed by numerical modelling in FLAC3d software. The constitutive model prepared for this simulation is the improved unified constitutive model, which can better and more accurately predict the stress-strain relationships in a continuum model. The IUCM employs the Hoek-Brown criterion to determine the instantaneous Mohr-Coulomb parameters cohesion (c) and friction (ɸ) at each level of confining stress. The extra swelled part can be dimensioned as north-south strike width 50m, east-west strike width 50m. On the north side, already a stope (P1) is excavated of the dimension of 25m NS width. The different options considered were (a) Open stoping of extraction of southern part (P0) of 50m to the full extent, (b) Extraction of the southern part of 25m, then filling of both the primaries and extraction of secondary (S0) 25m in between. (c) Extraction of the southern part (P0) completely, preceded by backfill and modify the design of the secondary (S0) for the overall stability of the permanent excavation above the stoping.

Keywords: extraction, IUCM, FLAC 3D, stoping, tectonics

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Authors: Bijit Kalita, K. V. N. Surendra

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Rotating disk is one of the most indispensable parts of a rotating machine. Rotating disk has found many applications in the diverging field of science and technology. In this paper, we have taken into consideration the problem of a heavy spinning disk mounted on a rotor system acted upon by boundary traction. Finite element modelling is used at various loading condition to determine the mixed mode stress intensity factors. The effect of combined shear and normal traction on the boundary is incorporated in the analysis under the action of gravity. The variation near the crack tip is characterized in terms of the stress intensity factor (SIF) with an aim to find the SIF for a wide range of parameters. The results of the finite element analyses carried out on the compressed disk of a belt pulley arrangement using fracture mechanics concepts are shown. A total of hundred cases of the problem are solved for each of the variations in loading arc parameter and crack orientation using finite element models of the disc under compression. All models were prepared and analyzed for the uncracked disk, disk with a single crack at different orientation emanating from shaft hole as well as for a disc with pair of cracks emerging from the same center hole. Curves are plotted for various loading conditions. Finally, crack propagation paths are determined using kink angle concepts.

Keywords: crack-tip deformations, static loading, stress concentration, stress intensity factor

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Authors: Jiahui Yang, John Quigley, Lesley Walls

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In this paper, the authors develop a stochastic model regarding the investment in supplier delivery performance development from a buyer’s perspective. The authors propose a multivariate model through a Multinomial-Dirichlet distribution within an Empirical Bayesian inference framework, representing both the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in deliveries. A closed form solution is obtained and the lower and upper bound for both optimal investment level and expected profit under uncertainty are derived. The theoretical properties provide decision makers with useful insights regarding supplier delivery performance improvement problems where multiple delivery statuses are involved. The authors also extend the model from a single supplier investment into a supplier portfolio, using a Lagrangian method to obtain a theoretical expression for an optimal investment level and overall expected profit. The model enables a buyer to know how the marginal expected profit/investment level of each supplier changes with respect to the budget and which supplier should be invested in when additional budget is available. An application of this model is illustrated in a simulation study. Overall, the main contribution of this study is to provide an optimal investment decision making framework for supplier development, taking into account multiple delivery statuses as well as multiple projects.

Keywords: decision making, empirical bayesian, portfolio optimization, supplier development, supply chain management

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Authors: Hayder H. Kareem

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Groundwater recharge is a crucial parameter for any groundwater management system. The variability of the recharge rates and the difficulty in estimating this factor in many processes by direct observation leads to the complexity of estimating the recharge value. Various methods are existing to estimate the groundwater recharge, with some limitations for each method to be able for application. This paper focuses particularly on a real study area, Al-Najaf City, Iraq. In this city, there are few groundwater aquifers, but the aquifer which is considered in this study is the closest one to the ground surface, the Dibdibba aquifer. According to the Aridity Index, which is estimated in the paper, Al-Najaf City is classified as a region located in an arid climate, and this identified that the most appropriate method to estimate the groundwater recharge is Thornthwaite's formula or Thornthwaite's method. From the calculations, the estimated average groundwater recharge over the period 1980-2014 for Al-Najaf City is 40.32 mm/year. Groundwater recharge is completely affected the groundwater table level (groundwater head). Therefore, to make sure that this value of recharge is true, the MODFLOW program has been used to apply this value through finding the relationship between the calculated and observed heads where a groundwater model for the Al-Najaf City study area has been built by MODFLOW to simulate this area for different purposes, one of these purposes is to simulate the groundwater recharge. MODFLOW results show that this value of groundwater recharge is extremely high and needs to be reduced. Therefore, a further sensitivity test has been carried out for the Al-Najaf City study area by the MODFLOW program through changing the recharge value and found that the best estimation of groundwater recharge value for this city is 16.5 mm/year where this value gives the best fitting between the calculated and observed heads with minimum values of RMSE % (13.175) and RSS m² (1454).

Keywords: Al-Najaf City, groundwater modelling, recharge estimation, visual MODFLOW

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Authors: Hesam Khajehsaeid, Naeimeh Alagheband

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Magnetorheological fluids (MRF) are a category of smart materials. They exhibit a reversible change from a Newtonian-like fluid to a semi-solid state upon application of an external magnetic field. In contrast to ordinary fluids, MRFs can tolerate shear stresses up to a threshold value called yield stress which strongly depends on the strength of the magnetic field, magnetic particles volume fraction and temperature. Even beyond the yield, a magnetic field can increase MR fluid viscosity up to several orders. As yield stress is an important parameter in the design of MR devices, in this work, the effects of magnetic field intensity and magnetic particle concentration on the yield stress of MRFs are investigated. Four MRF samples with different particle concentrations are developed and tested through flow-ramp analysis to obtain the flow curves at a range of magnetic field intensity as well as shear rate. The viscosity of the fluids is determined by means of the flow curves. The results are then used to determine the yield stresses by means of the steady stress sweep method. The yield stresses are then determined by means of a modified form of the dipole model as well as empirical models. The exponential distribution function is used to describe the orientation of particle chains in the dipole model under the action of the external magnetic field. Moreover, the modified dipole model results in a reasonable distribution of chains compared to previous similar models.

Keywords: magnetorheological fluids, yield stress, particles concentration, dipole model

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Authors: Lukasz Baka

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Objective. The study aimed to investigate the direct and indirect - mediated through insomnia - effect of coronavirus anxiety on exhaustion from the perspective of Hobfol Conservation of Resources (COR) theory. According to COR theory, critical events (e.g. the coronavirus epidemic) make people fearful of losing their valuable resources. A prolonged state of anxiety may lead to sleep troubles, which over time, results in an increase in exhaustion. Materials and Methods: Data were collected among 440 Polish healthcare providers, including nurses and midwives, doctors, paramedics, medical assistance, and wardens. Three measurements were used: Coronavirus Anxiety Scale (CAS), Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (COPSOQ, sleep trouble subscale) and Oldenburg Burnout Inventory (OLBI, exhaustion subscale). Hypotheses were tested by the use of Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). Results: The obtained results fully support the hypotheses. Both the direct and indirect relationships between coronavirus anxiety and exhaustion were observed. Specifically, high coronavirus anxiety increased insomnia, which in turn contributed to the development of exhaustion. Conclusion: The results are consistent with the COR theory. Prolonged coronavirus anxiety and sleep problems depleted healthcare providers’ resources and made them feel exhausted. Exhaustion among these workers can have serious consequences not only for themselves but also for the health of their patients, therefore researches into effective ways to deal with coronavirus anxiety are needed.

Keywords: coronavirus anxiety, front-line healt-care workers, insomnia, job burnout

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Authors: Gertraud Koch, Teresa Stumpf, Alejandra Tijerina García

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Discourse analysis research approaches belong to the central research strategies applied throughout the humanities; they focus on the countless forms and ways digital texts and images shape present-day notions of the world. Despite the constantly growing number of relevant digital, multimodal discourse resources, digital humanities (DH) methods are thus far not systematically developed and accessible for discourse analysis approaches. Specifically, the significance of multimodality and meaning plurality modelling are yet to be sufficiently addressed. In order to address this research gap, the D-WISE project aims to develop a prototypical working environment as digital support for the sociology of knowledge approach to discourse analysis and new IT-analysis approaches for the use of context-oriented embedding representations. Playing an essential role throughout our research endeavor is the constant optimization of hermeneutical methodology in the use of (semi)automated processes and their corresponding epistemological reflection. Among the discourse analyses, the sociology of knowledge approach to discourse analysis is characterised by the reconstructive and accompanying research into the formation of knowledge systems in social negotiation processes. The approach analyses how dominant understandings of a phenomenon develop, i.e., the way they are expressed and consolidated by various actors in specific arenas of discourse until a specific understanding of the phenomenon and its socially accepted structure are established. This article presents insights and initial findings from D-WISE, a joint research project running since 2021 between the Institute of Anthropological Studies in Culture and History and the Language Technology Group of the Department of Informatics at the University of Hamburg. As an interdisciplinary team, we develop central innovations with regard to the availability of relevant DH applications by building up a uniform working environment, which supports the procedure of the sociology of knowledge approach to discourse analysis within open corpora and heterogeneous, multimodal data sources for researchers in the humanities. We are hereby expanding the existing range of DH methods by developing contextualized embeddings for improved modelling of the plurality of meaning and the integrated processing of multimodal data. The alignment of this methodological and technical innovation is based on the epistemological working methods according to grounded theory as a hermeneutic methodology. In order to systematically relate, compare, and reflect the approaches of structural-IT and hermeneutic-interpretative analysis, the discourse analysis is carried out both manually and digitally. Using the example of current discourses on digitization in the healthcare sector and the associated issues regarding data protection, we have manually built an initial data corpus of which the relevant actors and discourse positions are analysed in conventional qualitative discourse analysis. At the same time, we are building an extensive digital corpus on the same topic based on the use and further development of entity-centered research tools such as topic crawlers and automated newsreaders. In addition to the text material, this consists of multimodal sources such as images, video sequences, and apps. In a blended reading process, the data material is filtered, annotated, and finally coded with the help of NLP tools such as dependency parsing, named entity recognition, co-reference resolution, entity linking, sentiment analysis, and other project-specific tools that are being adapted and developed. The coding process is carried out (semi-)automated by programs that propose coding paradigms based on the calculated entities and their relationships. Simultaneously, these can be specifically trained by manual coding in a closed reading process and specified according to the content issues. Overall, this approach enables purely qualitative, fully automated, and semi-automated analyses to be compared and reflected upon.

Keywords: entanglement of structural IT and hermeneutic-interpretative analysis, multimodality, plurality of meaning, sociology of knowledge approach to discourse analysis

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Authors: Atousa Khodadadyan, Ali Rostami

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The objective of off-site construction manufacturing is to utilise the workforce and machinery in a controlled environment without external interference for higher productivity and quality. The usage of prefabricated components can save up to 14% of the total energy consumption in comparison with the equivalent number of cast-in-place ones. Despite the benefits of prefabrication construction, its current project practices encompass technical and managerial issues. Building design, precast components’ production, logistics, and prefabrication installation processes are still mostly discontinued and fragmented. Furthermore, collaboration among prefabrication manufacturers, transportation parties, and on-site assemblers rely on real-time information such as the status of precast components, delivery progress, and the location of components. From the technical point of view, in this industry, geometric variability is still prevalent, which can be caused during the transportation or production of components. These issues indicate that there are still many aspects of prefabricated construction that can be developed using disruptive technologies. Practical real-time risk analysis can be used to address these issues as well as the management of safety, quality, and construction environment issues. On the other hand, the lack of research about risk assessment and the absence of standards and tools hinder risk management modeling in prefabricated construction. It is essential to note that no risk management standard has been established explicitly for prefabricated construction projects, and most software packages do not provide tailor-made functions for this type of projects.

Keywords: project risk management, risk analysis, risk modelling, prefabricated construction projects

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Authors: T. Malmir, U. Eicker

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Landfilling of organic waste is still the predominant waste management method in the USA and Canada. Strategic plans for waste diversion from landfills are needed to increase material recovery and energy generation from waste. In this paper, we carried out a statistical survey on waste flow in the two cities New York and Montréal and estimated the energy recovery potential for each case. Data collection and analysis of the organic waste (food waste, yard waste, etc.), paper and cardboard, metal, glass, plastic, carton, textile, electronic products and other materials were done based on the reports published by the Department of Sanitation in New York and Service de l'Environnement in Montréal. In order to calculate the gas generation potential of organic waste, Buswell equation was used in which the molar mass of the elements was calculated based on their atomic weight and the amount of organic waste in New York and Montréal. Also, the higher and lower calorific value of the organic waste (solid base) and biogas (gas base) were calculated. According to the results, only 19% (598 kt) and 45% (415 kt) of New York and Montréal waste were diverted from landfills in 2017, respectively. The biogas generation potential of the generated food waste and yard waste amounted to 631 million m³ in New York and 173 million m³ in Montréal. The higher and lower calorific value of food waste were 3482 and 2792 GWh in New York and 441 and 354 GWh in Montréal, respectively. In case of yard waste, they were 816 and 681 GWh in New York and 636 and 531 GWh in Montréal, respectively. Considering the higher calorific value, this amount would mean a contribution of around 2.5% energy in these cities.

Keywords: energy recovery, organic waste, urban energy modelling with INSEL, waste flow

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Authors: Nuo Duan, Yi Pik Cheng

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This paper presents the data of a series of two-dimensional Discrete Element Method (DEM) simulations of a large-diameter rigid monopile subjected to cyclic loading under a high gravitational force. At present, monopile foundations are widely used to support the tall and heavy wind turbines, which are also subjected to significant from wind and wave actions. A safe design must address issues such as rotations and changes in soil stiffness subject to these loadings conditions. Design guidance on the issue is limited, so are the availability of laboratory and field test data. The interpretation of these results in sand, such as the relation between loading and displacement, relies mainly on empirical correlations to pile properties. Regarding numerical models, most data from Finite Element Method (FEM) can be found. They are not comprehensive, and most of the FEM results are sensitive to input parameters. The micro scale behaviour could change the mechanism of the soil-structure interaction. A DEM model was used in this paper to study the cyclic lateral loads behaviour. A non-dimensional framework is presented and applied to interpret the simulation results. The DEM data compares well with various set of published experimental centrifuge model test data in terms of lateral deflection. The accumulated permanent pile lateral displacements induced by the cyclic lateral loads were found to be dependent on the characteristics of the applied cyclic load, such as the extent of the loading magnitudes and directions.

Keywords: cyclic loading, DEM, numerical modelling, sands

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Authors: Thomas Rockstuhl, Kok Yee Ng, Guido Gianasso, Soon Ang

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Two meta-analyses show that intercultural experience is not related to intercultural adaptation or performance in international assignments. These findings have prompted calls for a deeper grounding of research on international experience in the phenomenon of global work. Two issues, in particular, may limit current understanding of the relationship between international experience and global work performance. First, intercultural experience is too broad a construct that may not sufficiently capture the essence of global work, which to a large part involves sensemaking and managing intercultural conflicts. Second, the psychological mechanisms through which intercultural experience affects performance remains under-explored, resulting in a poor understanding of how experience is translated into learning and performance outcomes. Drawing on recognition primed decision-making (RPD) research, the current study advances a cognitive processing model to highlight the importance of intercultural conflict familiarity. Compared to intercultural experience, intercultural conflict familiarity is a more targeted construct that captures individuals’ previous exposure to dealing with intercultural conflicts. Drawing on RPD theory, we argue that individuals’ intercultural conflict familiarity enhances their ability to make accurate judgments and generate effective responses when intercultural conflicts arise. In turn, the ability to make accurate situation judgements and effective situation responses is an important predictor of global work performance. A relocation program within a multinational enterprise provided the context to test these hypotheses using a time-lagged, multi-source field study. Participants were 165 employees (46% female; with an average of 5 years of global work experience) from 42 countries who relocated from country to regional offices as part a global restructuring program. Within the first two weeks of transfer to the regional office, employees completed measures of their familiarity with intercultural conflicts, cultural intelligence, cognitive ability, and demographic information. They also completed an intercultural situational judgment test (iSJT) to assess their situation judgment and situation response. The iSJT comprised four validated multimedia vignettes of challenging intercultural work conflicts and prompted employees to provide protocols of their situation judgment and situation response. Two research assistants, trained in intercultural management but blind to the study hypotheses, coded the quality of employee’s situation judgment and situation response. Three months later, supervisors rated employees’ global work performance. Results using multilevel modeling (vignettes nested within employees) support the hypotheses that greater familiarity with intercultural conflicts is positively associated with better situation judgment, and that situation judgment mediates the effect of intercultural familiarity on situation response quality. Also, aggregated situation judgment and situation response quality both predicted supervisor-rated global work performance. Theoretically, our findings highlight the important but under-explored role of familiarity with intercultural conflicts; a shift in attention from the general nature of international experience assessed in terms of number and length of overseas assignments. Also, our cognitive approach premised on RPD theory offers a new theoretical lens to understand the psychological mechanisms through which intercultural conflict familiarity affects global work performance. Third, and importantly, our study contributes to the global talent identification literature by demonstrating that the cognitive processes engaged in resolving intercultural conflicts predict actual performance in the global workplace.

Keywords: intercultural conflict familiarity, job performance, judgment and decision making, situational judgment test

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Authors: Alam Zeb, Glen W. Armstrong, Muhammad Qasim

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Loss of forest cover is one of the most important land cover changes and has been of great concern to policy makers. This study quantified forest cover changes over pre logging ban (1973-1993) and post logging ban (1993-2015) to examine the role of geophysical factors and spatial attributes of land in the two periods. We show that despite a complete ban on green felling, forest cover decreased by 28% and mostly converted to rangeland. Nevertheless, the logging ban was completely effective in controlling agriculture expansion. The binary logistic regression revealed that the south facing aspects at low elevation witnessed more deforestation in the pre-ban period compared to post-ban. Opposite to deforestation, forest degradation was more prominent on the northern aspects at higher elevation during the policy period. Agriculture expansion was widespread in the low elevation flat areas with gentle slope, while during the policy period agriculture contraction in the form of regeneration was observed on the low elevation areas of north facing slopes. All proximity variables, except distance to administrative boundary, showed a similar trend across the two periods and were important explanatory variables in understanding forest and agriculture expansion. The changes in determinants of forest and agriculture expansion and contraction over the two periods might be attributed to the influence of policy and a general decrease in resource availability.

Keywords: forest conservation , wood harvesting ban, logistic regression, deforestation, forest degradation, agriculture expansion, Chitral, Pakistan

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Authors: Prajwal Eachempati, Laurent Muzellec, Ashish Kumar Jha

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We use Facebook as a case study to investigate the complex relationship between the firm’s public discourse (and actions) surrounding data privacy and the performance of a business model based on monetizing user’s data. We do so by looking at the evolution of public discourse over time (2004–2021) and relate topics to revenue and stock market evolution Drawing from archival sources like Zuckerberg We use LDA topic modelling algorithm to reveal 19 topics regrouped in 6 major themes. We first show how, by using persuasive and convincing language that promises better protection of consumer data usage, but also emphasizes greater user control over their own data, the privacy issue is being reframed as one of greater user control and responsibility. Second, we aim to understand and put a value on the extent to which privacy disclosures have a potential impact on the financial performance of social media firms. There we found significant relationship between the topics pertaining to privacy and social media/technology, sentiment score and stock market prices. Revenue is found to be impacted by topics pertaining to politics and new product and service innovations while number of active users is not impacted by the topics unless moderated by external control variables like Return on Assets and Brand Equity.

Keywords: public discourses, data protection, social media, privacy, topic modeling, business models, financial performance

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Authors: Adesoji Tunbosun Jaiyeola, Josiah Adeyemo

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Sediment yield can be considered to be the total sediment load that leaves a drainage basin. The knowledge of the quantity of sediments present in a river at a particular time can lead to better flood capacity in reservoirs and consequently help to control over-bane flooding. Furthermore, as sediment accumulates in the reservoir, it gradually loses its ability to store water for the purposes for which it was built. The development of hydrological models to forecast the quantity of sediment present in a reservoir helps planners and managers of water resources systems, to understand the system better in terms of its problems and alternative ways to address them. The application of artificial intelligence models and technique to such real-life situations have proven to be an effective approach of solving complex problems. This paper makes an extensive review of literature relevant to the theories and applications of evolutionary algorithms, and most especially genetic programming. The successful applications of genetic programming as a soft computing technique were reviewed in sediment modelling and other branches of knowledge. Some fundamental issues such as benchmark, generalization ability, bloat and over-fitting and other open issues relating to the working principles of GP, which needs to be addressed by the GP community were also highlighted. This review aim to give GP theoreticians, researchers and the general community of GP enough research direction, valuable guide and also keep all stakeholders abreast of the issues which need attention during the next decade for the advancement of GP.

Keywords: benchmark, bloat, generalization, genetic programming, over-fitting, sediment yield

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Authors: W. Wen, G. Jackson, S. Maskill, D. G. McCartney, W. Sun

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CoNiCrAlY alloys have been widely used as bond coats for thermal barrier coating (TBC) systems because of low cost, improved control of composition, and the feasibility to tailor the coatings microstructures. Coatings are in general very thin structures, and therefore it is impossible to characterize the mechanical responses of the materials via conventional mechanical testing methods. Due to this reason, miniature specimen testing methods, such as the small punch test technique, have been developed. This paper presents some of the recent research in evaluating the mechanical properties of the CoNiCrAlY coatings at room and high temperatures, through the use of small punch testing and the developed miniature specimen tensile testing, applicable to a range of temperature, to investigate the elastic-plastic and creep behavior as well as ductile-brittle transition temperature (DBTT) behavior. An inverse procedure was developed to derive the mechanical properties from such tests for the coating materials. A two-layer specimen test method is also described. The key findings include: 1) the temperature-dependent coating properties can be accurately determined by the miniature tensile testing within a wide range of temperature; 2) consistent DBTTs can be identified by both the SPT and miniature tensile tests (~ 650 °C); and 3) the FE SPT modelling has shown good capability of simulating the early local cracking. In general, the temperature-dependent material behaviors of the CoNiCrAlY coating has been effectively characterized using miniature specimen testing and inverse method.

Keywords: NiCoCrAlY coatings, mechanical properties, DBTT, miniature specimen testing

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Authors: Suraj Nair, Aravindkumar Vijayalingam, Alexander Perzylo, Alois Knoll

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In the last decade robotics research and development activities have grown rapidly, especially in the domain of service robotics. Integrating service robots into human occupied spaces such as homes, offices, hospitals, etc. has become increasingly worked upon. The primary motive is to ease daily lives of humans by taking over some of the household/office chores. However, several challenges remain in systematically integrating such systems in human shared work-spaces. In addition to sensing and indoor-navigation challenges, programmability of such systems is a major hurdle due to the fact that the potential user cannot be expected to have knowledge in robotics or similar mechatronic systems. In this paper, we propose a cognitive system for service robotics which allows non-expert users to easily model system behaviour in an underspecified manner through abstract tasks and objects associated with them. The system uses domain knowledge expressed in the form of an ontology along with logical reasoning mechanisms to infer all the missing pieces of information required for executing the tasks. Furthermore, the system is also capable of recovering from failed tasks arising due to on-line disturbances by using the knowledge base and inferring alternate methods to execute the same tasks. The system is demonstrated through a coffee fetching scenario in an office environment using a mobile robot equipped with sensors and software capabilities for autonomous navigation and human-interaction through natural language.

Keywords: cognitive robotics, reasoning, service robotics, task based systems

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Authors: Supriya Patibanda, Xiaopeng Gong, Krishna N. Jonnalagadda, Ralph Abrahams

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Yttria stabilized zirconia (YSZ) is used as a top coat in thermal barrier coatings in high-temperature turbine/jet engine applications. The mechanical behaviour of YSZ depends on the microstructural features like crack density and porosity, which are a result of coating method. However, experimentally ascertaining their individual effect is difficult due to the inherent challenges involved like material synthesis and handling. The current work deals with the development of a phenomenological model to replicate the tensile behavior of air plasma sprayed YSZ obtained from experiments. Initially, uniaxial tensile experiments were performed on freestanding YSZ coatings of ~300 µm thick for different crack densities and porosities. The coatings exhibited a nonlinear behavior and also a huge variation in strength values. With the obtained experimental tensile curve as a base and crack density and porosity as prime variables, a phenomenological model was developed using ABAQUS interface with new user material defined employing VUMAT sub routine. The relation between the tensile stress and the crack density was empirically established. Further, a parametric study was carried out to investigate the effect of the individual features on the non-linearity in these coatings. This work enables to generate new coating designs by varying the key parameters and predicting the mechanical properties with the help of a simulation, thereby minimizing experiments.

Keywords: crack density, finite element method, plasma sprayed coatings, VUMAT

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Authors: Cristina Isabrl de Oliveira SAntos

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The study aims to investigate how transferrable and effective career conversations could be, in the context of general track Portuguese secondary schools, with the view of improving students’ career competencies. It does so by analysing: 1) the extent to which students’ perceptions of career conversations relate with their existing career competencies, 2) the extent to which each of the parameters; perceptions of career conversations and student career competencies, relate with student situational and personal characteristics, 3) how patterns in perceptions of headteachers and of teachers at a school, regarding the implementation of career conversations, correlate to the views of students regarding career conversations and to school contextual characteristics. Data were collected from 27 secondary schools out of 32 in the same district of Aveiro, in Portugal. Interviews were performed individually, with 27 headteachers, and in groups, with a total of 10 teacher groups and 11 student groups. Survey responses were also collected from742 studentsand 310 teachers. Interview responses were coded and analysed using grounded theory principles. Data from questionnaires is currently beingscrutinised through descriptive statistics with SPSS, and Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). Triangulation during different stages of data analysis uses the principles of retroduction and abduction of the realist evaluation framework. Conclusions from the pilot-study indicate that student perceptions scores on content and relationship in career conversations change according to their career competencies and the type of school. Statistically significant differences in perceptions of career conversations were found for subgroups based on gender and parent educational level.

Keywords: career conversations, career competencies, secondary education, teachers

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Authors: Michael A. Kraus, Navid Pourmoghaddam, Martin Botz, Jens Schneider, Geralt Siebert

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Fragmentation analysis of tempered glass gives insight into the quality of the tempering process and defines a certain degree of safety as well. Different standard such as the European EN 12150-1 or the American ASTM C 1048/CPSC 16 CFR 1201 define a minimum number of fragments required for soda-lime safety glass on the basis of fragmentation test results for classification. This work presents an approach for the glass breakage pattern prediction using a Voronoi Tesselation over Random Fields. The random Voronoi tessellation is trained with and validated against data from several breakage patterns. The fragments in observation areas of 50 mm x 50 mm were used for training and validation. All glass specimen used in this study were commercially available soda-lime glasses at three different thicknesses levels of 4 mm, 8 mm and 12 mm. The results of this work form a Bayesian framework for the training and prediction of breakage patterns of tempered soda-lime glass using a Voronoi Random Field Tesselation. Uncertainties occurring in this process can be well quantified, and several statistical measures of the pattern can be preservation with this method. Within this work it was found, that different Random Fields as basis for the Voronoi Tesselation lead to differently well fitted statistical properties of the glass breakage patterns. As the methodology is derived and kept general, the framework could be also applied to other random tesselations and crack pattern modelling purposes.

Keywords: glass breakage predicition, Voronoi Random Field Tessellation, fragmentation analysis, Bayesian parameter identification

Procedia PDF Downloads 161