Search results for: disease modeling

Authors: Rahul Agarwal, Ashutosh Singh

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Colorectal cancer (CRC) also refers as bowel cancer or colon cancer. It involves the development of abnormal growth of cells in colon or rectum part of the body. This work leads to the development of a miRNA database in colorectal cancer. We named this database- miCoRe. This database comprises of all validated colon-rectal cancer miRNAs information from various published literature with an effectual knowledge based information retrieval system. miRNAs have been collected from various published literature reports. MySQL is used for main-framework of miCoRe while the front-end was developed in PHP script. The aim of developing miCoRe is to create a comprehensive central repository of colorectal carcinoma miRNAs with all germane information of miRNAs and their target genes. The current version of miCoRe consists of 238 miRNAs which are known to be implicated in malignancy of CRC. Alongside with miRNA information, miCoRe also contains the information related to the target genes of these miRNA. miCoRe furnishes the information about the mechanism of incidence and progression of the disease, which would further help the researchers to look for colorectal specific miRNAs therapies and CRC specific targeted drug designing. Moreover, it will also help in development of biomarkers for the better and early detection of CRC and will help in better clinical management of the disease.

Keywords: colorectal cancer, database, miCoRe, miRNAs

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Authors: Khachen Kongpakwattana, Nathorn Chaiyakunapruk

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Background: Decision-analytic models for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) have been advanced to discrete-event simulation (DES), in which individual-level modelling of disease progression across continuous severity spectra and incorporation of key parameters such as treatment persistence into the model become feasible. This study aimed to apply the DES to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of treatment for AD in Thailand. Methods: A dataset of Thai patients with AD, representing unique demographic and clinical characteristics, was bootstrapped to generate a baseline cohort of patients. Each patient was cloned and assigned to donepezil, galantamine, rivastigmine, memantine or no treatment. Throughout the simulation period, the model randomly assigned each patient to discrete events including hospital visits, treatment discontinuation and death. Correlated changes in cognitive and behavioral status over time were developed using patient-level data. Treatment effects were obtained from the most recent network meta-analysis. Treatment persistence, mortality and predictive equations for functional status, costs (Thai baht (THB) in 2017) and quality-adjusted life year (QALY) were derived from country-specific real-world data. The time horizon was 10 years, with a discount rate of 3% per annum. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated based on the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 160,000 THB/QALY gained (4,994 US$/QALY gained) in Thailand. Results: Under a societal perspective, only was the prescription of donepezil to AD patients with all disease-severity levels found to be cost-effective. Compared to untreated patients, although the patients receiving donepezil incurred a discounted additional costs of 2,161 THB, they experienced a discounted gain in QALY of 0.021, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 138,524 THB/QALY (4,062 US$/QALY). Besides, providing early treatment with donepezil to mild AD patients further reduced the ICER to 61,652 THB/QALY (1,808 US$/QALY). However, the dominance of donepezil appeared to wane when delayed treatment was given to a subgroup of moderate and severe AD patients [ICER: 284,388 THB/QALY (8,340 US$/QALY)]. Introduction of a treatment stopping rule when the Mini-Mental State Exam (MMSE) score goes below 10 to a mild AD cohort did not deteriorate the cost-effectiveness of donepezil at the current treatment persistence level. On the other hand, none of the AD medications was cost-effective when being considered under a healthcare perspective. Conclusions: The DES greatly enhances real-world representativeness of decision-analytic models for AD. Under a societal perspective, treatment with donepezil improves patient’s quality of life and is considered cost-effective when used to treat AD patients with all disease-severity levels in Thailand. The optimal treatment benefits are observed when donepezil is prescribed since the early course of AD. With healthcare budget constraints in Thailand, the implementation of donepezil coverage may be most likely possible when being considered starting with mild AD patients, along with the stopping rule introduced.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, cost-effectiveness analysis, discrete event simulation, health technology assessment

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Authors: N. H. Hamid, N. M. Mohamed, S. A. Anuar

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Precast residential houses are normally constructed in Malaysia using precast shear-key wall panel and precast wall panel are designed using BS8110 where there is no provision for earthquake. However, the safety of this house under moderate and strong earthquake is still questionable. Consequently, the full-scale of residential house are designed, constructed, tested and analyzed under in-plane lateral cyclic loading. Hysteresis loops are plotted based on the experimental work and compared with modeling of hysteresis loops using HYSTERES in RUAUMOKO 2D program. Modified Takeda hysteresis model is chosen to behave a similar pattern with experimental work. This program will display the earthquake excitations, spectral displacements, pseudo spectral acceleration, and deformation shape of the structure. It can be concluded that this building is suffering severe cracks and damage under moderate and severe earthquake.

Keywords: precast shear-key, hysteresis loops, spectral displacements, deformation shape

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Authors: Verónica Díaz

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A Cartesian graph, as a mathematical object, becomes a tool for configuration of change. Its best comprehension is done through everyday life problem-solving associated with its representation. Despite this, the current educational framework favors general graphs, without consideration of their argumentation. Students are required to find the mathematical function without associating it to the development of graphical language. This research describes the use made by students of configurations made prior to Cartesian graphs with regards to an everyday life problem related to a time and distance variation phenomenon. The theoretical framework describes the function conditions of study and their modeling. This is a qualitative, descriptive study involving six undergraduate case studies that were carried out during the first term in 2016 at University of Los Lagos. The research problem concerned the graphic modeling of a real person’s movement phenomenon, and two levels of analysis were identified. The first level aims to identify local and global graph interpretations; a second level describes the iconicity and referentiality degree of an image. According to the results, students were able to draw no figures before the Cartesian graph, highlighting the need for students to represent the context and the movement of which causes the phenomenon change. From this, they managed Cartesian graphs representing changes in position, therefore, achieved an overall view of the graph. However, the local view only indicates specific events in the problem situation, using graphic and verbal expressions to represent movement. This view does not enable us to identify what happens on the graph when the movement characteristics change based on possible paths in the person’s walking speed.

Keywords: cartesian graphs, higher education, movement modeling, problem solving

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Authors: Makenzy Lee Gilbert

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This literature review explores the role of attractor neural networks (ANNs) in modeling psychological processes in artificial and biological systems. By synthesizing research from dynamical systems theory, psychology, and computational neuroscience, the review provides an overview of the current understanding of ANN function in memory formation, reinforcement, retrieval, and forgetting. Key mathematical foundations, including dynamical systems theory and energy functions, are discussed to explain the behavior and stability of these networks. The review also examines empirical applications of ANNs in cognitive processes such as semantic memory and episodic recall, as well as highlighting the hippocampus's role in pattern separation and completion. The review addresses challenges like catastrophic forgetting and noise effects on memory retrieval. By identifying gaps between theoretical models and empirical findings, it highlights the interdisciplinary nature of ANN research and suggests future exploration areas.

Keywords: attractor neural networks, connectionism, computational modeling, cognitive neuroscience

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Authors: Koko Wangjam, Naresh Kumar Sharma

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The concern for most public health policies and decision- makers is the equitable distribution of health care resource of the nation. Also, in public health care system, the primary aim is assuaging the burden of the disease. Objective: This paper captures and evaluates some important theories in equity in health with its relevance with the ART program in India. Methodology: The paper is exploratory and descriptive study based on secondary data. The sources of secondary data are published official reports from NACO (National AIDS Control Organisation), United Nations AIDS Program (UNAIDS), World Health Organisation (WHO) etc. Observation: The roll-out of the ART program in 2004 by the Govt. of India made a paradigm shift in HIV/AIDS scenario in the country. Conclusion: There are many theoretical injunctions in most of the principles and approaches in existing theories of health equity. The enervation of HIV infection by taking ART drugs had helped in curbing the prevalence and the fact that it is provided at free of cost has proven this program to be an epitome in distributive justice in public health.

Keywords: art program, burden of the disease, health equity, hiv/aids

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Authors: Elham Ahmadi

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This study is conducted with the aim of investigating the effect of moderate physical activity (60% of maximal heart rate-MHR) on blood pressure in an elderly female with hypertension. Hypertension is considered a modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease through physical activity. The purpose and significance of this study were to investigate the role of exercise as an alternative therapy since some patients exhibit sensitivity/intolerance to some drugs. Initially, 65 hypertensive females (average age = 49.7 years) (systolic blood pressure, SBP >140 mmHg and/or diastolic blood pressure, DBP>85 mmHg) and 25 hypertensive females as a control group (average age = 50.3 years and systolic blood pressure, SBP >140 mmHg and/or diastolic blood pressure, DBP>85 mmHg) were selected. The subjects were divided based on their age, duration of disease, physical activity, and drug consumption. Then, blood pressure and heart rate (HR) were measured in all of the patients using a sphygmomanometer (pre-test). The exercise sessions consisted of warm-up, aerobic activity, and cooling down (total duration of 20 minutes for the first session up to 55 minutes in the last session). At the end of the 12th session (mid-test) and final session (24th session), blood pressure was measured for the last time (post-test). The control group was without any exercise during the study. The results were analyzed using a t-test. Our results indicated that moderate physical activity was effective in lowering blood pressure by 6.4/5.6–mm Hg for SBP and 2.4/4.3mm Hg for DBP in hypertensive patients, irrespective of age, duration of disease, and drug consumption ( P<.005). The control group indicates no changes in BP. Physical activity programs with moderate intensity (approximately at 60% MHR), three days per week, can be used not only as a preventive measure for diastolic hypertension (DBP>90 mmHg high blood pressure) but also as an alternative to drug therapy in the treatment of hypertension, as well.

Keywords: endurance exercise, elderly female, hypertension, physical activity

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Authors: Muhammad Naveed Aslam, Rida Fatima, Anam Moosa, Muhammad Taimoor Shakeel

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Bacillus strains produce antifungal secondary metabolites making them potential candidates for suppressing Fusarium wilt of chickpea disease. In this study, eighteen Bacillus strains were evaluated for their antagonistic effect against Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. ciceris causing Fusarium wilt of chickpea disease. In a direct antifungal assay, thirteen strains showed significant inhibition zones while the remaining five strains did not produce inhibition zones of FOC. Bacillus thuringiensis CHGP12 was the most promising strain exhibiting the highest inhibition of FOC. Antifungal lipopeptides were extracted from CHGP12 strain which showed significant inhibition of the pathogen. Liquid chromatography mass spectrometry (LCMS) analysis revealed that CHGP12 was positive for the presence of iturin, fengycin, surfactin, bacillaene, bacillibactin, plantazolicin, and bacilysin. CHGP12 was tested for biochemical determinants in an in vitro qualitative test where it showed the ability to produce lipase, amylase, cellulase, protease, siderophores, and indole 3-acetic acid (IAA). Furthermore, in a greenhouse experiment CHGP12 also showed a significant decrease in the disease severity in treated plants compared to control. Moreover, CHGP12 also exhibited a significant increase in plant growth parameters viz, root and shoot growth parameters, stomatal conductance, and photosynthesis rate. Conclusively, our findings present the promising potential of Bacillus strain CHGP12 to suppress Fusarium wilt of chickpea and to promote plant growth.

Keywords: liquid chromatography mass spectrometry, growth promotion, antagonism, hydrolytic enzymes, inhibition, lipopeptides.

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Authors: Walid Al-Qerem, Ruba Zumot

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Background: The rise of obesity among children and adolescents remains a primary challenge for healthcare providers globally and in the Middle East. The aim of the present study is to determine the prevalence of obesity among 5-20 years old Jordanians based on CDC criteria. Method: A total of 5722 Jordanians (37% males; 63% females) aged 5-20 years data were retrieved from the Jordanian Ministry of Health electronic database (Hakeem). As per the CDC selection criteria, the chosen data pertains exclusively to healthy Jordanian children and adolescents who are medically sound, not suffering from health conditions, and not undergoing any treatments that could hinder normal growth patterns, such as severe infection, chronic kidney disease (CKD), Down’s syndrome, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, cancer, heart disease, lung disease, cystic fibrosis, Crohn’s disease, type 1 diabetes, hormonal disturbances, any stress-related conditions, hormonal therapy such as corticosteroids, Growth hormones (GHS) or gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonists, insulin, and amphetamines or any other stimulants. In addition, participants with missing or invalid data values for anthropometric measurements were excluded from the study. Weight for age and body mass index for age were analyzed comparatively for Jordanian children and adolescents against the international growth standards. The Z-score for each record was computed based on CDC equations. As per CDC classifications, BMI for age percentiles, values ≥85th and < 95th are classified as overweight, and value at ≥ 95th is classified as obesity. Results: The average age of the evaluated sample was 12.33 ±4.39 years (10.79 ±3.39 for males and 13.23 ± 4.66 for females). The mean weight for males and females were 33.16±14.17 Kg and 133.54±17.17 cm for males, 43.86 ±18.82 Kg, and 142.19±18.35 for females, while for BMI the mean was for boys and girls 17.81±3.88 and 20.52±5.03 respectively. The results indicated that based on CDC criteria, 8.9% of males were classified as children/adolescents with overweight, and 9.7% were classified as children/adolescents with obesity, while in females, 17.8% were classified as children/adolescents with overweight and 10.2% were classified as children/adolescents with obesity. Discussion: The high prevalence of obesity reported in the present study emphasizes the importance of applying different strategies to prevent childhood obesity, including encouraging physical activity, promoting healthier food options, and behavioral changes. Conclusion: The results presented in this study indicated the high prevalence of overweight/obesity among Jordanian adolescents and children, which must be tagged by healthcare planners and providers.

Keywords: CDC, obesity, childhood, Jordan

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Authors: Saeed Pourhassan, Nastaran Maghbouli

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Statement of the problem: The relationship between obesity and cardiovascular diseases has been studied widely(1). The distribution of fat tissue gained attention in relation to cardiovascular risk factors during lang-time research (2). American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) is widely and the most reliable tool to be used as a cardiovascular risk (CVR) assessment tool(3). This study aimed to determine which anthropometric index is better in discrimination of high CVR patients from low risks using ACC/AHA score in addition to finding the best index as a CVR predictor among both genders in different races and countries. Methodology & theoretical orientation: The literature in PubMed, Scopus, Embase, Web of Science, and Google Scholar were searched by two independent investigators using the keywords "anthropometric indices," "cardiovascular risk," and "obesity." The search strategy was limited to studies published prior to Jan 2022 as full-texts in the English language. Studies using ACC/AHA risk assessment tool as CVR and those consisted at least 2 anthropometric indices (ancient ones and novel ones) are included. Study characteristics and data were extracted. The relative risks were pooled with the use of the random-effect model. Analysis was repeated in subgroups. Findings: Pooled relative risk for 7 studies with 16,348 participants were 1.56 (1.35-1.72) for BMI, 1.67(1.36-1.83) for WC [waist circumference], 1.72 (1.54-1.89) for WHR [waist-to-hip ratio], 1.60 (1.44-1.78) for WHtR [waist-to-height ratio], 1.61 (1.37-1.82) for ABSI [A body shape index] and 1.63 (1.32-1.89) for CI [Conicity index]. Considering gender, WC among females and WHR among men gained the highest RR. The heterogeneity of studies was moderate (α²: 56%), which was not decreased by subgroup analysis. Some indices such as VAI and LAP were evaluated just in one study. Conclusion & significance: This meta-analysis showed WHR could predict CVR better in comparison to BMI or WHtR. Some new indices like CI and ABSI are less accurate than WHR and WC. Among women, WC seems to be a better choice to predict cardiovascular disease risk.

Keywords: obesity, cardiovascular disease, risk assessment, anthropometric indices

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Authors: Sangbok Lee

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There has been much effort on process improvement for outpatient clinics to provide quality and acute care to patients. One of the efforts is no-show analysis or prediction. This work analyzes patient no-shows along with patient health conditions. The health conditions refer to clinical symptoms that each patient has, out of the followings; hyperlipidemia, diabetes, metastatic solid tumor, dementia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hypertension, coronary artery disease, myocardial infraction, congestive heart failure, atrial fibrillation, stroke, drug dependence abuse, schizophrenia, major depression, and pain. A dataset from a regional hospital is used to find the relationship between the number of the symptoms and no-show probabilities. Additional analysis reveals how each symptom or combination of symptoms affects no-shows. In the above analyses, cross-classification of patients by age and gender is carried out. The findings from the analysis will be used to take extra care to patients with particular health conditions. They will be forced to visit clinics by being informed about their health conditions and possible consequences more clearly. Moreover, this work will be used in the preparation of making institutional guidelines for patient reminder systems.

Keywords: healthcare system, no show analysis, process improvment, statistical data analysis

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Authors: Ichihan Tai, Bill Olson, Paul Blessner

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Traditional early warning systems that alarm against crisis are generally based on structured or numerical data; therefore, a system that can make predictions based on unstructured textual data, an uncorrelated data source, is a great complement to the traditional early warning systems. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), commonly referred to as the fear index, measures the cost of insurance against market crash, and spikes in the event of crisis. In this study, news data is consumed for prediction of whether there will be a market-wide crisis by predicting the movement of the fear index, and the historical references to similar events are presented in an unsupervised manner. Topic modeling-based prediction and representation are made based on daily news data between 1990 and 2015 from The Wall Street Journal against VIX index data from CBOE.

Keywords: early warning system, knowledge management, market prediction, topic modeling.

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Authors: Taehyun Kim, Hyunjoo Park, Taehyun Kim

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Since the rapid economic development, Korea has recently entered a period of low growth due to population decline and aging. Due to the urbanization around the metropolitan area and the hollowing of local cities, the ecological capacity of a city is decreasing while ecological footprints are increasing, requiring a compact space plan for maintaining urban functions. The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between urban spatial structure and residents' ecological footprints for sustainable spatial planning. To do this, we try to analyze the relationship between intra-urban spatial structure, such as net/gross density and service accessibility, and resident ecological footprints of food, housing, transportation, goods and services through survey and structural equation modeling. The results of the study will be useful in establishing an implementation plan for sustainable development goals (SDGs), especially for sustainable cities and communities (SDG 11) and responsible consumption and production (SDG 12) in the future.

Keywords: ecological footprint, structural equation modeling, survey, sustainability, urban spatial structure

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Authors: Arun Goel

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Prediction of maximum local scour is necessary for the safety and economical design of the bridges. A number of equations have been developed over the years to predict local scour depth using laboratory data and a few pier equations have also been proposed using field data. Most of these equations are empirical in nature as indicated by the past publications. In this paper, attempts have been made to compute local depth of scour around bridge pier in dimensional and non-dimensional form by using linear regression, simple regression and SVM (Poly and Rbf) techniques along with few conventional empirical equations. The outcome of this study suggests that the SVM (Poly and Rbf) based modeling can be employed as an alternate to linear regression, simple regression and the conventional empirical equations in predicting scour depth of bridge piers. The results of present study on the basis of non-dimensional form of bridge pier scour indicates the improvement in the performance of SVM (Poly and Rbf) in comparison to dimensional form of scour.

Keywords: modeling, pier scour, regression, prediction, SVM (Poly and Rbf kernels)

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Authors: Marzia Bilkiss, Muhammad J. A. Shiddiky, Mostafa K. Masud, Prabhakaran Sambasivam, Ido Bar, Jeremy Brownlie, Rebecca Ford

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A greater achievement in the Integrated Disease Management (IDM) to prevent the loss would result from early diagnosis and quantitation of the causal pathogen species for accurate and timely disease control. This could significantly reduce costs to the growers and reduce any flow on impacts to the environment from excessive chemical spraying. Necrotrophic fungal disease botrytis grey mould, caused by Botrytis cinerea and Botrytis fabae, significantly reduce temperate legume yield and grain quality during favourable environmental condition in Australia and worldwide. Several immunogenic and molecular probe-type protocols have been developed for their diagnosis, but these have varying levels of species-specificity, sensitivity, and consequent usefulness within the paddock. To substantially improve speed, accuracy, and sensitivity, advanced nanoparticle-based biosensor approaches have been developed. For this, two sets of primers were designed for both Botrytis cinerea and Botrytis fabae which have shown the species specificity with initial sensitivity of two genomic copies/µl in pure fungal backgrounds using multiplexed quantitative PCR. During further validation, quantitative PCR detected 100 spores on artificially infected legume leaves. Simultaneously an electro-catalytic assay was developed for both target fungal DNA using functionalised magnetic nanoparticles. This was extremely sensitive, able to detect a single spore within a raw total plant nucleic acid extract background. We believe that the translation of this technology to the field will enable quantitative assessment of pathogen load for future accurate decision support of informed botrytis grey mould management.

Keywords: biosensor, botrytis grey mould, sensitive, species specific

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Authors: Dan Geneau, Mary Claire Geneau, Seth Lenetsky, Ming -Chang Tsai, Marc Klimstra

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Introduction— Horizontal force-velocity profiling (HFVP) involves modeling an athletes linear sprint kinematics to estimate valuable maximum force and velocity metrics. This approach to performance modeling has been used in field-based team sports and has recently been introduced to ice-hockey as a forward skating performance assessment. While preliminary data has been collected on ice, distance constraints of the on-ice test restrict the ability of the athletes to reach their maximal velocity which result in limits of the model to effectively estimate athlete performance. This is especially true of more elite athletes. This report explores whether athletes on-ice are able to reach a velocity plateau similar to what has been seen in overground trials. Fourteen male Major Junior ice-hockey players (BW= 83.87 +/- 7.30 kg, height = 188 ± 3.4cm cm, age = 18 ± 1.2 years n = 14) were recruited. For on-ice sprints, participants completed a standardized warm-up consisting of skating and dynamic stretching and a progression of three skating efforts from 50% to 95%. Following the warm-up, participants completed three on ice 45m sprints, with three minutes of rest in between each trial. For overground sprints, participants completed a similar dynamic warm-up to that of on-ice trials. Following the warm-up participants completed three 40m overground sprint trials. For each trial (on-ice and overground), radar was used to collect instantaneous velocity (Stalker ATS II, Texas, USA) aimed at the participant’s waist. Sprint velocities were modelled using custom Python (version 3.2) script using a mono-exponential function, similar to previous work. To determine if on-ice tirals were achieving a maximum velocity (plateau), minimum acceleration values of the modeled data at the end of the sprint were compared (using paired t-test) between on-ice and overground trials. Significant differences (P<0.001) between overground and on-ice minimum accelerations were observed. It was found that on-ice trials consistently reported higher final acceleration values, indicating a maximum maintained velocity (plateau) had not been reached. Based on these preliminary findings, it is suggested that reliable HFVP metrics cannot yet be collected from all ice-hockey populations using current methods. Elite male populations were not able to achieve a velocity plateau similar to what has been seen in overground trials, indicating the absence of a maximum velocity measure. With current velocity and acceleration modeling techniques, including a dependency of a velocity plateau, these results indicate the potential for error in on-ice HFVP measures. Therefore, these findings suggest that a greater on-ice sprint distance may be required or the need for other velocity modeling techniques, where maximal velocity is not required for a complete profile.   

Keywords: ice-hockey, sprint, skating, power

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Authors: Adrian O'Hagan, Robert McLoughlin

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Considerable focus in the world of insurance risk quantification is placed on modeling loss values from lines of business (LOBs) that possess upper tail dependence. Copulas such as the Joe, Gumbel and Student-t copula may be used for this purpose. The copula structure imparts a desired level of tail dependence on the joint distribution of claims from the different LOBs. Alternatively, practitioners may possess historical or simulated data that already exhibit upper tail dependence, through the impact of catastrophe events such as hurricanes or earthquakes. In these circumstances, it is not desirable to induce additional upper tail dependence when modeling the joint distribution of the loss values from the individual LOBs. Instead, it is of interest to accurately assess the degree of tail dependence already present in the data. The empirical copula and its associated upper tail dependence coefficient are presented in this paper as robust, efficient means of achieving this goal.

Keywords: empirical copula, extreme events, insurance loss reserving, upper tail dependence coefficient

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Authors: Ronit Chakraborty, Sugata Banerji

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There has been a marked increase in the reported prevalence of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) among children in the US over the past two decades. This research has analyzed the growth in state-level ASD prevalence against 45 different potentially explanatory factors, including socio-economic, demographic, healthcare, public policy, and political factors. The goal was to understand if these factors have adequate predictive power in modeling the differential growth in ASD prevalence across various states and if they do, which factors are the most influential. The key findings of this study include (1) the confirmation that the chosen feature set has considerable power in predicting the growth in ASD prevalence, (2) the identification of the most influential predictive factors, (3) given the nature of the most influential predictive variables, an indication that a considerable portion of the reported ASD prevalence differentials across states could be attributable to over and under diagnosis, and (4) identification of Florida as a key outlier state pointing to a potential under-diagnosis of ASD there.

Keywords: autism spectrum disorder, clustering, machine learning, predictive modeling

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Authors: Youb Said, Fourar Ali

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To describe the influence of bottom roughness on the free surface flows by numerical modeling, a two-dimensional model was developed. The equations of continuity and momentum (Naviers Stokes equations) are solved by the finite volume method. We considered a turbulent flow in an open channel with a bottom roughness. For our simulations, the K-ε model was used. After setting the initial and boundary conditions and solve the equations set, we were able to achieve the following results: vortex forming in the hollow causing substantial energy dissipation in the obstacle areas that form the bottom roughness. The comparison of our results with experimental ones shows a good agreement in terms of the results in the rough area. However, in other areas, differences were more or less important. These differences are in areas far from the bottom, especially the free surface area just after the bottom. These disagreements are probably due to experimental constants used by the k-ε model.

Keywords: modeling, free surface flow, turbulence, bottom roughness, finite volume, K-ε model, energy dissipation

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Authors: Adinarayana Badveeti, Mohammad Shafi Mir

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In Srinagar city, in India, road safety is an important aspect that creates ecological balance and social well being. A road accident creates a situation that leaves behind distress, sorrow, and sufferings. Therefore identification of causes of road accidents becomes highly essential for adopting necessary preventive measures against a critical event. The damage created by road accidents to large extent is unrepairable and therefore needs attention to eradicate this continuously increasing trend of awful 'epidemic'. Road accident in India is among the highest in the world, with at least approximately 142.000 people killed each year on the road. Kashmir region is an ecologically sensitive place but lacks necessary facilities and infrastructure regarding road transportation, ultimately resulting in the critical event-road accidents creating a major problem for common people in the region. The objective of this project is to study the safety aspect of Srinagar City and also model the accidents with different aspect that causes accidents and also to suggest the possible remedies for lessening/eliminating the road accidents.

Keywords: road safety, road accident, road infrastructure, accident modeling

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Authors: Mehrdad Azimzadeh, Seyed Mohammadreza Jabbari, Mohammadreza Hosseinzadeh Alherd

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This paper includes experimental results and analytical studies about increasing resistance of single-span reinforced concreted frames against impact factor and their modeling according to optimization methods and optimizing the behavior of these frames under impact loads. During this study, about 30 designs for different frames were modeled and made using specialized software like ANSYS and Sap and their behavior were examined under variable impacts. Then suitable strategies were offered for frames in terms of concrete mixing in order to optimize frame modeling. To reduce the weight of the frames, we had to use fine-grained stones. After designing about eight types of frames for each type of frames, three samples were designed with the aim of controlling the impact strength parameters, and a good shape of the frame was created for the impact resistance, which was a solid frame with muscular legs, and as a bond away from each other as much as possible with a 3 degree gradient in the upper part of the beam.

Keywords: optimization, reinforced concrete, optimization methods, impact load, earthquake

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Authors: O. Behar, A. Khellaf, K. Mohammedi, S. Ait Kaci

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Up to now, most validation studies have been based on the MBE and RMSE, and therefore, focused only on long and short terms performance to test and classify solar radiation models. This traditional analysis does not take into account the quality of modeling and linearity. In our analysis we have tested 22 solar radiation models that are capable to provide instantaneous direct and global radiation at any given location Worldwide. We introduce a new indicator, which we named Global Accuracy Indicator (GAI) to examine the linear relationship between the measured and predicted values and the quality of modeling in addition to long and short terms performance. Note that the quality of model has been represented by the T-Statistical test, the model linearity has been given by the correlation coefficient and the long and short term performance have been respectively known by the MBE and RMSE. An important founding of this research is that the use GAI allows avoiding default validation when using traditional methodology that might results in erroneous prediction of solar power conversion systems performances.

Keywords: solar radiation model, parametric model, performance analysis, Global Accuracy Indicator (GAI)

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Authors: Danila Zuffetti, Lorenzo Chiesa

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Background: A hospice narrative interview aims at putting the sick at the core of disease and treatment allowing them to explore their most intimate facets. The aim of this work is to favor authentic narration by leading towards awareness and acceptance of terminality and to face death with serenity. Narration in palliative care aims at helping to reduce the chaos generated by the disease and to elaborate interpretations on the course of reality, besides, the narration delivered to the doctor is fundamental and communicates the meaning given to symptoms. Methods: The narrative interview has become a regular activity in the Castellini Foundation since 2017. Patients take part every week, and for more days, in one hour sessions, in a welcoming and empathic setting and the interaction with the operator leads to a gradual awareness of their terminality. Patients are submitted with free answer questions with the purpose of facilitating and stimulating self-narration. Narration has not always been linear, but patients are left free to shift in time to revisit their disease process by making use of different tools, such as digital storytelling. Results: The answers provided by the patients show to which extent the narrative interview is an instrument allowing the analysis of the stories and gives the possibility to better understand and deepen the different implications of patient and caregiver’s background. Conclusion: The narration work in the hospice demonstrates that narrative medicine is an added value. This instrument has proven useful not only in the support of patients but also for the palliative doctor to identify wishes for accompanying them to the end with dignity and serenity. The narrative interview favors the construction of an authentic therapeutic relationship. The sick are taken wholly in charge, and they are guaranteed a high quality of life until their very last instant.

Keywords: construction of an authentic therapy relationship, gradual awareness of their terminality, narrative interview, reduce the chaos generated by the desease

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Authors: Seyed Mohammad Mahdi Zamani, Kamran Behdinan

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In this study, a multiscale framework is performed to model the strength of Nextel fibers in presence of an atomistic scale pre-crack at finite temperatures. The bridging cell method (BCM) is the multiscale technique applied in this study, which decomposes the system into the atomistic, bridging and continuum domains; solves the whole system in a finite element framework; and incorporates temperature dependent calculations. Since Nextel is known to be structurally stable and retain 70% of its initial strength up to 1100°C; simulations are conducted at both of the room temperatures, 25°C, and fire temperatures, 1200°C. Two cases are modeled for a pre-crack present in either phases of alumina or mullite of the Nextel structure. The materials’ response is studied with respect to deformation behavior and ultimate tensile strength. Results show different crack growth trends for the two cases, and as the temperature increases, the crack growth resistance and material’s strength decrease.

Keywords: Nextel fibers, multiscale modeling, pre-crack, ultimate tensile strength

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Authors: Vasundhara Arora, Anupam Jhobta, Suresh Thakur, Sanjiv Sharma

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Aims and Objectives: Intracranial tuberculosis (TB) is one of the most devastating manifestations of TB and a challenging public health issue of considerable importance and magnitude world over. This study elaborates on the imaging spectrum of neurotuberculosis on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in 29 clinically suspected cases from a tertiary care hospital. Materials and Methods: The prospective hospital based evaluation of MR imaging features of neuro-tuberculosis in 29 clinically suspected cases was carried out in Department of Radio-diagnosis, Indira Gandhi Medical Hospital from July 2017 to August 2018. MR Images were obtained on a 1.5 T Magnetom Avanto machine and were analyzed to identify any abnormal meningeal enhancement or parenchymal lesions. Microbiological and Biochemical CSF analysis was performed in radio-logically suspected cases and the results were compared with the imaging data. Clinical follow up of the patients started on anti-tuberculous treatment was done to evaluate the response to treatment and clinical outcome. Results: Age range of patients in the study was between 1 year to 73 years. The mean age of presentation was 11.5 years. No significant difference in the distribution of cerebral tuberculosis was noted among the two genders. Imaging findings of neuro-tuberculosis obtained were varied and non specific ranging from lepto-meningeal enhancement, cerebritis to space occupying lesions such as tuberculomas and tubercular abscesses. Complications presenting as hydrocephalus (n= 7) and infarcts (n=9) was noted in few of these patients. 29 patients showed radiological suspicion of CNS tuberculosis with meningitis alone observed in 11 cases, tuberculomas alone were observed in 4 cases, meningitis with parenchymal tuberculomas in 11 cases. Tubercular abscess and cerebritis were observed in one case each. Tuberculous arachnoiditis was noted in one patient. Gene expert positivity was obtained in 11 out of 29 radiologically suspected patients; none of the patients showed culture positivity. Meningeal form of the disease alone showed higher positivity rate of gene Xpert (n=5) followed by combination of meningeal and parenchymal forms of disease (n=4). The parenchymal manifestation of disease alone showed least positivity rates (n= 3) with gene xpert testing. All 29 patients were started on anti tubercular treatment based on radiological suspicion of the disease with clinical improvement observed in 27 treated patients. Conclusions: In our study, higher incidence of neuro- tuberculosis was noted in paediatric population with predominance of the meningeal form of the disease. Gene Xpert positivity obtained was low due to paucibacillary nature of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) with even lower positivity of CSF samples in parenchymal form of the manifestation. MRI showed high accuracy in detecting CNS lesions in neuro-tuberculosis. Hence, it can be concluded that MRI plays a crucial role in the diagnosis because of its inherent sensitivity and specificity and is an indispensible imaging modality. It caters to the need of early diagnosis owing to poor sensitivity of microbiological tests more so in the parenchymal manifestation of the disease.

Keywords: neurotuberculosis, tubercular abscess, tuberculoma, tuberculous meningitis

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Authors: Karima Qayumi, Alex Norta

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The rapid generation of high volume and a broad variety of data from the application of new technologies pose challenges for the generation of business-intelligence. Most organizations and business owners need to extract data from multiple sources and apply analytical methods for the purposes of developing their business. Therefore, the recently decentralized data management environment is relying on a distributed computing paradigm. While data are stored in highly distributed systems, the implementation of distributed data-mining techniques is a challenge. The aim of this technique is to gather knowledge from every domain and all the datasets stemming from distributed resources. As agent technologies offer significant contributions for managing the complexity of distributed systems, we consider this for next-generation data-mining processes. To demonstrate agent-based business intelligence operations, we use agent-oriented modeling techniques to develop a new artifact for mining massive datasets.

Keywords: agent-oriented modeling (AOM), business intelligence model (BIM), distributed data mining (DDM), multi-agent system (MAS)

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Authors: Yuri V. Bykov, V. A. Baturin

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Aim of the study: The aim of the study was to perform a comparative analysis of the levels of autoantibodies (AAB) to the S-100 protein as well as to the dopamine and NMDA receptors in children with type 1 diabetes mellitus (DM) in therapeutic remission. Materials and methods: Blood serum obtained from 42 children ages 4 to 17 years (20 boys and 22 girls) was analyzed. Twenty-one of these children had a diagnosis of type 1 DM and were in therapeutic remission (study group). The mean duration of disease in children with type 1 DM was 9.6±0.36 years. Children without DM were included in a group of "apparently healthy children" (21 children, comparison group). AAB to the S-100 protein, the dopamine, and NMDA receptors were measured by ELISA. The normal range of IgG AAB was specified as up to 10 µg/mL. In order to compare the central parameters of the groups, the following parametric and non-parametric methods were used: Student's t-test or Mann-Whitney U test. The level of significance for inter-group comparisons was set at p<0.05. Results: The mean levels of AAB to the S-100B protein were significantly higher (p=0.0045) in children with DM (16.84±1.54 µg/mL) when compared with "apparently healthy children" (2.09±0.05 µg/mL). The detected elevated levels of AAB to NMDA receptors may indicate that in children with type 1 DM, there is a change in the activity of the glutamatergic system, which in its turn suggests the presence of excitotoxicity. The mean levels of AAB to dopamine receptors were higher (p=0.0082) in patients comprising the study group than in the children of the comparison group (40.47±2.31 µg/mL and 3.91±0.09 µg/mL). The detected elevated levels of AAB to dopamine receptors suggest an altered activity of the dopaminergic system in children with DM. This can also be viewed as indirect evidence of altered activity of the brain's glutamatergic system. The mean levels of AAB to NMDA receptors were higher in patients with type 1 DM compared with the "apparently healthy children," at 13.16±2.07 µg/mL and 1.304±0.05 µg/mL, respectively (p=0.0021). The elevated mean levels of AAB to the S-100B protein may indicate damage to brain tissue in children with type 1 DM. A difference was also detected between the mean values of the measured AABs, and this difference depended on the duration of the disease: mean AAB values were significantly higher in patients whose disease had lasted more than five years. Conclusions: The elevated mean levels of AAB to the S-100B protein may indicate damage to brain tissue in the setting of excitotoxicity in children with type 1 DM. The discovered elevation of the levels of AAB to NMDA and dopamine receptors may indicate the activation of the glutamatergic and dopaminergic systems. The observed abnormalities indicate the presence of central nervous system damage in children with type 1 DM, with a tendency towards the elevation of the levels of the studied AABs with disease progression.

Keywords: autoantibodies, brain damage, children, diabetes mellitus

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Authors: Abhaydeep Pandey, Shweta Shukla, Saptamita Goswami, Bhaswati Bandyopadhyay, Vishnampettai Ramachandran, Sudhanshu Vrati, Arup Banerjee

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Background: Long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) are the important regulators of gene expression and play important role in viral replication and disease progression. The role of lncRNA genes in the pathogenesis of Dengue virus-mediated pathogenesis is currently unknown. Methods: To gain additional insights, we utilized an unbiased RNA sequencing followed by in silico analysis approach to identify the differentially expressed lncRNA and genes that are associated with dengue disease progression. Further, we focused our study on lncRNAs NEAT1 (Nuclear Paraspeckle Assembly Transcript 1) as it was found to be differentially expressed in PBMC of dengue infected patients. Results: The expression of lncRNAs NEAT1, as compared to dengue infection (DI), was significantly down-regulated as the patients developed the complication. Moreover, pairwise analysis on follow up patients confirmed that suppression of NEAT1 expression was associated with rapid fall in platelet count in dengue infected patients. Severe dengue patients (DS) (n=18; platelet count < 20K) when recovered from infection showing high NEAT1 expression as it observed in healthy donors. By co-expression network analysis and subsequent validation, we revealed that coding gene; IFI27 expression was significantly up-regulated in severe dengue cases and negatively correlated with NEAT1 expression. To discriminate DI from dengue severe, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was calculated. It revealed sensitivity and specificity of 100% (95%CI: 85.69 – 97.22) and area under the curve (AUC) = 0.97 for NEAT1. Conclusions: Altogether, our first observations demonstrate that monitoring NEAT1and IFI27 expression in dengue patients could be useful in understanding dengue virus-induced disease progression and may be involved in pathophysiological processes.

Keywords: dengue, lncRNA, NEAT1, transcriptome

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Authors: Yana Snegireva

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Carbonate reservoirs are known for their heterogeneity, resulting from various geological processes such as diagenesis and fracturing. These complexities may cause great challenges in understanding fluid flow behavior and predicting the production performance of naturally fractured reservoirs. The investigation of carbonate reservoirs is crucial, as many petroleum reservoirs are naturally fractured, which can be difficult due to the complexity of their fracture networks. This can lead to geological uncertainties, which are important for global petroleum reserves. The problem outlines the key challenges in carbonate reservoir modeling, including the accurate representation of fractures and their connectivity, as well as capturing the impact of fractures on fluid flow and production. Traditional reservoir modeling techniques often oversimplify fracture networks, leading to inaccurate predictions. Therefore, there is a need for a modern approach that can capture the complexities of carbonate reservoirs and provide reliable predictions for effective reservoir management and production optimization. The modern approach to carbonate reservoir modeling involves the utilization of the hybrid fracture modeling approach, including the discrete fracture network (DFN) method and implicit fracture network, which offer enhanced accuracy and reliability in characterizing complex fracture systems within these reservoirs. This study focuses on the application of the hybrid method in the Nepsko-Botuobinskaya anticline of the Eastern Siberia field, aiming to prove the appropriateness of this method in these geological conditions. The DFN method is adopted to model the fracture network within the carbonate reservoir. This method considers fractures as discrete entities, capturing their geometry, orientation, and connectivity. But the method has significant disadvantages since the number of fractures in the field can be very high. Due to limitations in the amount of main memory, it is very difficult to represent these fractures explicitly. By integrating data from image logs (formation micro imager), core data, and fracture density logs, a discrete fracture network (DFN) model can be constructed to represent fracture characteristics for hydraulically relevant fractures. The results obtained from the DFN modeling approaches provide valuable insights into the East Siberia field's carbonate reservoir behavior. The DFN model accurately captures the fracture system, allowing for a better understanding of fluid flow pathways, connectivity, and potential production zones. The analysis of simulation results enables the identification of zones of increased fracturing and optimization opportunities for reservoir development with the potential application of enhanced oil recovery techniques, which were considered in further simulations on the dual porosity and dual permeability models. This approach considers fractures as separate, interconnected flow paths within the reservoir matrix, allowing for the characterization of dual-porosity media. The case study of the East Siberia field demonstrates the effectiveness of the hybrid model method in accurately representing fracture systems and predicting reservoir behavior. The findings from this study contribute to improved reservoir management and production optimization in carbonate reservoirs with the use of enhanced and improved oil recovery methods.

Keywords: carbonate reservoir, discrete fracture network, fracture modeling, dual porosity, enhanced oil recovery, implicit fracture model, hybrid fracture model

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Authors: Ram V. Mohan, John Rivas-Murillo, Ahmed Mohamed, Wayne D. Hodo

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Cementitious materials, an excellent example of highly complex, heterogeneous material systems, are cement-based systems that include cement paste, mortar, and concrete that are heavily used in civil infrastructure; though commonly used are one of the most complex in terms of the material morphology and structure than most materials, for example, crystalline metals. Processes and features occurring at the nanometer sized morphological structures affect the performance, deformation/failure behavior at larger length scales. In addition, cementitious materials undergo chemical and morphological changes gaining strength during the transient hydration process. Hydration in cement is a very complex process creating complex microstructures and the associated molecular structures that vary with hydration. A fundamental understanding can be gained through multi-scale level modeling for the behavior and properties of cementitious materials starting from the material chemistry level atomistic scale to further explore their role and the manifested effects at larger length and engineering scales. This predictive modeling enables the understanding, and studying the influence of material chemistry level changes and nanomaterial additives on the expected resultant material characteristics and deformation behavior. Atomistic-molecular dynamic level modeling is required to couple material science to engineering mechanics. Starting at the molecular level a comprehensive description of the material’s chemistry is required to understand the fundamental properties that govern behavior occurring across each relevant length scale. Material chemistry level models and molecular dynamics modeling and simulations are employed in our work to describe the molecular-level chemistry features of calcium-silicate-hydrate (CSH), one of the key hydrated constituents of cement paste, their associated deformation and failure. The molecular level atomic structure for CSH can be represented by Jennite mineral structure. Jennite has been widely accepted by researchers and is typically used to represent the molecular structure of the CSH gel formed during the hydration of cement clinkers. This paper will focus on our recent work on the shear and compressive deformation and failure behavior of CSH represented by Jennite mineral structure that has been widely accepted by researchers and is typically used to represent the molecular structure of CSH formed during the hydration of cement clinkers. The deformation and failure behavior under shear and compression loading deformation in traditional hydrated CSH; effect of material chemistry changes on the predicted stress-strain behavior, transition from linear to non-linear behavior and identify the on-set of failure based on material chemistry structures of CSH Jennite and changes in its chemistry structure will be discussed.

Keywords: cementitious materials, deformation, failure, material chemistry modeling

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