Search results for: domestic abuse

Authors: Pooja Kumbhare

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Water is an important resource for the survival of life. The inadequate availability of surface water makes people depend on ground water for fulfilling their needs. However, ground water is generally too hard to satisfy the requirements for domestic as well as industrial applications. Removal of hardness involves various techniques such as lime soda process, ion exchange, reverse osmosis, nano-filtration, distillation, and, evaporation, etc. These techniques have individual problems such as high annual operating cost, sediment formation on membrane, sludge disposal problem, etc. Electrocoagulation (EC) is being explored as modern and cost-effective technology to cope up with the growing demand of high water quality at the consumer end. In general, earlier studies on electrocoagulation for hardness removal are found to deploy batch processes. As batch processes are always inappropriate to deal with large volume of water to be treated, it is essential to develop continuous flow EC process. So, in the present study, an attempt is made to investigate continuous flow EC process for decreasing excessive hardness of bore-well water. The experimental study has been conducted using 12 aluminum electrodes (25cm*10cm, 1cm thick) provided in EC reactor with volume of 8 L. Bore well water sample, collected from a local bore-well (i.e. at – Vishrambag, Sangli; Maharashtra) having average initial hardness of 680 mg/l (Range: 650 – 700 mg/l), was used for the study. Continuous flow electrocoagulation experiments were carried out by varying operating parameters specifically reaction time (Range: 10 – 60 min), voltage (Range: 5 – 20 V), current (Range: 1 – 5A). Based on the experimental study, it is found that hardness removal to the desired extent could be achieved even for continuous flow EC reactor, so the use of it is found promising.

Keywords: hardness, continuous flow EC process, aluminum electrode, optimal operating parameters

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Authors: Giovana Privatte Maciera, Jair Izaías Kappann

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Introduction: The violence against woman is a complex phenomenon that accompanies the woman throughout her life and is a result of a social, cultural, political and religious construction, based on the differences among the genders. Those differences are felt, mainly, because of the patriarchal system that is still present which just naturalize and legitimate the asymmetry of power. As consequence of the women’s lasting historical and collective effort for a legislation against the impunity of violence against women in the national scenery, it was ordained, in 2006, a law known as Maria da Penha. The law was created as a protective measure for women that were victims of violence and consequently for the punishment of the aggressor. Methodology: Analysis of police inquiries is established by the Police Station of Defense of the Woman of Assis city, by formal authorization of the justice, in the period of 2013 to 2015. For the evaluating of the results will be used the content analysis and the theoretical referential of Psychoanalysis. Results and Discussion: The final analysis of the inquiries demonstrated that the violence against women is reproduced by the society and the aggressor, in most cases it is a member of their own family, mainly the current or former-spouse. The most common kinds of aggression were: the threat bodily harm, and the physical violence, that normally happens accompanied by psychological violence, being the most painful for the victims. The biggest part of the aggressors was white, older than the victim, worker and had primary school. But, unlike the expected, the minority of the aggressors were users of alcohol and/or drugs and possessed children in common with the victim. There is a contrast among the number of victims who already admitted have suffered some type of violence earlier by the same aggressor and the number of victims who has registered the occurrence before. The aggressors often use the discourse of denial in their testimony or try to justify their act like the blame was of the victim. It is believed in the interaction of several factors that can influence the aggressor to commit the abuse, including psychological, personal and sociocultural factors. One hypothesis is that the aggressor has a violence history in the family origin. After the aggressor being judged, condemned or not, usually there is no rehabilitation plan or supervision that enable his change. Conclusions: It has noticed the importance of studying the aggressor’s characteristics and the reasons that took him to commit such violence, making possible the implementation of an appropriate treatment to prevent and reduce the aggressions, as well the creation of programs and actions that enable communication and understanding concerning the theme. This is because the recurrence is still high, since the punitive system is not enough and the law is still ineffective and inefficient in certain aspects and in its own functioning. It is perceived a compulsion in repeat so much for the victims as for the aggressors, because they end involving, almost always, in disturbed and violent relationships, with the relation of subordination-dominance as characteristic.

Keywords: aggressors' profile, gender equality, Maria da Penha law, violence against women

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Authors: Wenfu Zhang

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This study examines why young, privileged Chinese individuals emigrate, how they sustain fluid, ongoing movement, and the life goals through migrant entrepreneurship. Through interviews with 30 young Chinese migrant entrepreneurs in the UK, this study reveals that they migrate primarily to escape an increasingly "risk society", characterized by reduced social and personal freedoms, a hostile business environment, and hyper-competition within professional and entrepreneurial sectors in the PRC. In this context, elite-oriented immigration policies of Northern countries align with these migrants' goals, creating a duality of 'neoliberalism as exception' and 'exceptions to neoliberalism', which facilitates selective entry for young, privileged Chinese. Intriguingly, even within the perceived context of an increasingly 'risk society,' young, privileged migrants are hesitant to relinquish their Chinese nationality, despite having diligently obtained UK residency. This choice reflects a deliberate strategy to cultivate 'mobility capital'. A Northern country's residency offers mobility to exit China when “risks” emerge, while Chinese nationality enables a strategic return when advantageous. This study contributes to the literature on how young, privileged Chinese individuals from the not-so-distant ‘Deng Xiaoping Era’ view China’s ongoing “New Era” as shaping their future aspirations with uncertainty; it examines how revenue-driven immigration controls in postcolonial Northern countries impact Southern elites by enabling them to project their domestic inequality issues onto a global scale through the use of mobility capital. In this study, it term these young Chinese elites "Chinese Übermensches," an unparalleled phenomenon in Chinese migration history.

Keywords: mobility capital, elite migration, entrepreneurship, neoliberalism, risk society

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Authors: Gabriel Woldu, Maria Sassi

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Coffee performs a pivotal role in Ethiopia's GDP, revenue, employment, domestic demand, and export earnings. Ethiopia's coffee production and exports show high variability in the amount of production and export earnings. Despite being the continent's fifth-largest coffee producer, Ethiopia has not developed its ability to shine as a major exporter in the globe's green coffee exports. Ethiopian coffee exports were not stable and had high volume and earnings fluctuations. The main aim of this study was to analyze the dynamics of the export of coffee variation to different importing nations using a first-order Markov Chain model. 14 years of time-series data has been used to examine the direction and structural change in the export of coffee. A compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was used to determine the annual growth rate in the coffee export quantity, value, and per-unit price over the study period. The major export markets for Ethiopian coffee were Germany, Japan, and the USA, which were more stable, while countries such as France, Italy, Belgium, and Saudi Arabia were less stable and had low retention rates for Ethiopian coffee. The study, therefore, recommends that Ethiopia should again revitalize its market to France, Italy, Belgium, and Saudi Arabia, as these countries are the major coffee-consuming countries in the world to boost its export stake to the global coffee markets in the future. In order to further enhance export stability, the Ethiopian Government and other stakeholders in the coffee sector should have to work on reducing the volatility of coffee output and exports in order to improve production and quality efficiency, so that stabilize markets as well as to make the product attractive and price competitive in the importing countries.

Keywords: coffee, CAGR, Markov chain, direction of trade, Ethiopia

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Authors: Olga Santesteban, Glorisa Canino, Hector R. Bird, Cristiane S. Duarte

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Objective: To address whether harsh discipline is associated with disruptive behavior disorders (DBD) in Puerto Rican children over time. Background: Both cross-sectional and longitudinal studies report that rates of DBD vary by gender, age and other demographics, being more frequent among boys, later in life and among those who live in urban areas. Also, the literature supports the direct, positive association between harsh discipline and externalizing behaviors. Nevertheless, scholars have underscored the important role of race and ethnicity in understanding discipline effects on children. The impact of harsh discipline in a Puerto Rican population remains to be studied. Methods: Sample: This is a secondary analysis of the Boricua Youth Study which assessed yearly (3 times) Puerto Rican children aged 5-15 in two different sites: San Juan (Puerto Rico) and the South Bronx (NY), N=2951. Participants that did not have scores of harsh discipline in the 3 waves were excluded for this analysis (N=2091). Main Measures: a) Harsh Discipline (Parent report) was measured using 6 items from the “Parental Discipline Scale” that measures various forms of punishment, including physical and verbal abuse, and withholding affection; b) Disruptive Behavior Disorder (Parent report): Parent version of the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children-IV (DISC-IV) was used to asses children’s conduct disorders; c) Demographic factors: Child gender, child age, family income, marital status; d) Parental factors: parental psychopathology, parental monitoring, familism, parent support; e) Children characteristics: Controlling for any diagnostic at wave 1 (internalizing or externalizing). Data Analysis: Logistic regression was carried out relating the likelihood of DBD to harsh discipline along waves controlling for potential confounders as demographics, child and parent characteristics. Results: There were no significant differences in harsh discipline by site in wave 1 and wave 2 but there was a significant difference in wave 3. Also, there were no significant differences in DBD by site in wave 1 and wave 2 but there was a significant difference in wave 3. There was a significant difference of discipline by gender and age in all the waves. We calculated unadjusted (OR) and adjusted (AOD) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) showing the relation between harsh discipline at wave 1 and the presence of child disruptive behavior disorder at wave 3 for both South Bronx and Puerto Rico. There was an association between harsh discipline and the likelihood of having DBD in The Bronx (AOR=1.76; 95%CI=1.13-2.74, p.013) and in Puerto Rico (AOR=2.17; 95%CI=1.28-3.67, p.004) having controlled for demographic, parental and individual factors. Conclusions: Context may be an important differential factor shaping the potential risk of harsh discipline toward DBD for Puerto Rican children.

Keywords: disruptive behavior disorders, harsh discipline, puerto rican, psychological education

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Authors: Magdi Elmessiry, Adel Elmessiry

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The fashion industry represents a significant portion of the global gross domestic product, however, it is plagued by cheap imitators that infringe on the trademarks which destroys the fashion industry's hard work and investment. While eventually the copycats would be found and stopped, the damage has already been done, sales are missed and direct and indirect jobs are lost. The infringer thrives on two main facts: the time it takes to discover them and the lack of tracking technologies that can help the consumer distinguish them. Blockchain technology is a new emerging technology that provides a distributed encrypted immutable and fault resistant ledger. Blockchain presents a ripe technology to resolve the infringement epidemic facing the fashion industry. The significance of the study is that a new approach leveraging the state of the art blockchain technology coupled with artificial intelligence is used to create a framework addressing the fashion infringement problem. It transforms the current focus on legal enforcement, which is difficult at best, to consumer awareness that is far more effective. The framework, Crypto CopyCat, creates an immutable digital asset representing the actual product to empower the customer with a near real time query system. This combination emphasizes the consumer's awareness and appreciation of the product's authenticity, while provides real time feedback to the producer regarding the fake replicas. The main findings of this study are that implementing this approach can delay the fake product penetration of the original product market, thus allowing the original product the time to take advantage of the market. The shift in the fake adoption results in reduced returns, which impedes the copycat market and moves the emphasis to the original product innovation.

Keywords: fashion, infringement, blockchain, artificial intelligence, textiles supply chain

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Authors: Shahryar Eslamitabar

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Currently, the internet plays an important role in the various scientific, commercial and service practices. Thanks to information and communication technology, the healthcare industry via the internet, generally known as cyber-medicine, can offer professional medical service in a wider geographical area. Having some appealing benefits such as convenience in offering healthcare services, improved accessibility to the services, enhanced information exchange, cost-effectiveness, time-saving, etc. Tele-health has increasingly developed innovative models of healthcare delivery. However, it presents many potential hazards to cyber-patients, inherent in the use of the system. First, there are legal issues associated with the communication and transfer of information on the internet. These include licensure, malpractice, liabilities and jurisdictions as well as privacy, confidentiality and security of personal data as the most important challenge brought about by this system. Additional items of concern are technological and ethical. Although, there are some rules to deal with pitfalls associated with cyber-medicine practices in the USA and some European countries, yet for all developments, it is being practiced in a legal vacuum in many countries. In addition to the domestic legislations to deal with potential problems arisen from the system, it is also imperative that some international or regional agreement should be developed to achieve the harmonization of laws among countries and states. This article discusses some implications posed by the practice of cyber-medicine in the healthcare system according to the experience of some developed countries using a comparative study of laws. It will also review the status of tele-health laws in Iran. Finally, it is intended to pave the way to outline a plan for countries like Iran, with newly-established judicial system for health laws, to develop appropriate regulations through providing some recommendations.

Keywords: tele-health, cyber-medicine, telemedicine, criminal laws, legislations, time-saving

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Authors: Xiaofei Li, Zhiwei Zhong, Deli Wang

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Large herbivores affect plant growth not only through their direct, consumptive effects, but also through indirect effects that alter species interactions. Indirect effects can be either positive or negative, therefore having the potential to mitigate or enhance the direct impacts of herbivores. However, until recently, we know considerably less about the indirect effects than the direct effects of large herbivores on plants, and few studies have explored multiple indirect pathways simultaneously. Here, we investigated how large domestic herbivores, cattle (Bos taurus), can shape population growth of an intermediately preferred forb species, Artemsisa scoparia, through diverse pathways in a temperate grassland of northeast China. We found that, although exposure to direct consumption of cattle, A. scoparia growth was not inhibited, but rather showed a significant increase in the grazed than ungrazed areas. This unexpected result was due to grazing-induced multiple indirect, positive effects overwhelmed the direct, negative consumption effects of cattle on plant growth. The much more intensive consumption on the dominant Leymus chinensis grass, ground litter removal, and increases in ant nest abundance induced by cattle, exerted significant indirect, positive effects on A. scoparia growth. These pathways benefited A.scoparia growth by lessening interspecific competition, mitigating negative effects of litter accumulation, and increasing soil nutrient availability, respectively. Our results highlight the need to integrate indirect effects into the traditional food web theory, which is based primary on direct, trophic linkages, to fully understand community organization and dynamics. Large herbivores are important conservation and management targets, our results suggest that these mammals should be managed with the understanding that they can affect primary producers through diverse paths.

Keywords: grasslands, large herbivores, plant growth, indirect effects

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Authors: Nindyo Cahyo Kresnanto, Muhamad Willdan, Wika Harisa Putri

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Gunungkidul is one of the emerging tourism industry areas in Yogyakarta Province, Indonesia. This article describes how GIS can predict the development of tourism potential in Gunungkidul. The tourism sector in Gunungkidul Regency contributes 3.34% of the total gross regional domestic product and is the economic sector with the highest growth with a percentage of 18.37% in the post-Covid-19 period. This contribution makes researchers consider that several tourist sites need to be explored more to increase regional economic development gradually. This research starts by collecting spatial data from tourist locations tourists want to visit in Gunungkidul Regency based on survey data from 571 respondents. Then the data is visualized with ArcGIS software. This research shows an overview of tourist destinations interested in travellers depicted from the lowest to the highest from the data visualization. Based on the data visualization results, specific tourist locations potentially developed to influence the surrounding economy positively. The visualization of the data displayed is also in the form of a desire line map that shows tourist travel patterns from the origin of the tourist to the destination of the tourist location of interest. From the desire line, the prediction of the path of tourist sites with a high frequency of transportation activity can figure out. Predictions regarding specific tourist location routes that high transportation activities can burden can consider which routes will be chosen. The route also needs to be improved in terms of capacity and quality. The goal is to provide a sense of security and comfort for tourists who drive and positively impact the tourist sites traversed by the route.

Keywords: tourism development, GIS and survey, transportation, potential desire line

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Authors: Ismaila Oladunni Muhammed, Adegbenga Raphael Ashiru

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Construction industry has been attributed to be the engine growth of Nigerian economic and infrastructural development. It promotes infrastructural development and grows an average output of Nigerian Gross Domestic Profit. However, from this great prospect, yearly reports show that consistent accidents on construction sites in Zamfara State has affected a substantial number of workers as they become temporarily or permanently disabled, thereby making many construction sites a death trap. This posed a great threat to the industry’s sustainability, de- motivate workers from working in the industry, and further have negative impact on the economy as well. It is as a result of high construction site accident currently experiencing in Zamfara state that this research was carried out to appraise the sustainability of health and safety of construction workers on sites. The proper practice and compliance to Construction Health and safety laws are very vital to the output and growth of Zamfara State construction sector. However, a quantitative approach was adopted to justify the aforesaid statement which will provide a broader understanding of the study. Descriptive statistical analysis was obtained through Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS Version 20). Furthermore, the findings from the research highlighted that the performance and output of construction workers on construction sites depends on the proper practice of health and safety. The research findings also recommended ways to enhance employers and employee’s compliance with existing laws guiding health and safety on Zamfara State construction sites. Nevertheless, the purpose of the paper is to appraise the sustainability of Health and Safety on Zamfara State construction sites. This study further provided thorough information for resolving challenges of construction sites accidents to improve construction firm productivity and also ensured construction worker’s safety on site.

Keywords: construction industry, health and safety regulations, causes of accident, construction safety practices

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Authors: Khaled M. Ali, Ayman A. Mostafa, Soliman M. Soliman

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Objectives: To describe the most common clinical and endoscopic findings associated with complicated corneal ulcers in cats, and to determine the short-term outcomes after surgical treatment of these cats. Animals Eighteen client-owned cats of different breeds (52 females and 28 males), ranging in age from 3 months to 6 years, with corneal ulcers. Procedures: Cats were clinically evaluated to initially determine the concurrent corneal abnormalities. Endoscopic examination was performed to determine the anterior and posterior segments abnormalities. Superficial and deep stromal ulcers were treated using conjunctival flap. Corneal sequestrum was treated by partial keratectomy and conjunctival flap. Anterior synechia was treated via peripheral iridectomy and separation of the adhesion between the iris and the inner cornea. Symblepharon was treated by removal of the adhered conjunctival membrane from the cornea. Incurable endophthalmitis was treated surgically by extirpation. Short-term outcomes after surgical managements of selected corneal abnormalities were then assessed clinically and endoscopically. Results: Deep stromal ulcer with descemetocele, endophthalmitis, symblepharon, corneal sequestration and anterior synechia with secondary glaucoma and corneal scarring were the most common complications of corneal ulcer. FHV-1 was a common etiologic factor of corneal ulceration. Persistent corneal scars of varying shape and size developed in cats with deep stromal ulcer, anterior synechia, and corneal sequestration. Conclusions: Domestic shorthaired and Persian cats were the most predisposed breeds to FHV-1 infection and subsequent corneal ulceration. Immediate management of patients with corneal ulcer would prevent serious complications. No age or sex predisposition to complicated corneal ulceration in cats.

Keywords: cats, complicated corneal ulceration, clinical, endoscopic diagnosis, FHV-1

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Authors: Maryam Pirdehghan

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During the Ba'ath Party's rule in Iraq, propaganda was utilized to justify and to promote Saddam Hussein's image in the collective memory as the greatest Arab leader. Consequently, urban walls were routinely covered with images of Saddam. Relying on these images, the regime aimed to provide a basis for evoking meanings in the public opinion, which would supposedly strengthen Saddam’s power and reconstruct facts to legitimize his political ideology. Nonetheless, Saddam was not always portrayed with common and explicit elements but in certain periods of his rule, the paintings depicted him in an unusual context, where various historical and contemporary elements were combined in a narrative background. Therefore, an understanding of the implied socio-political references of these elements is required to fully elucidate the impact of these images on forming the memory and collective unconscious of the Iraqi people. To obtain such understanding, one needs to address the following questions: a) How Saddam Hussein is portrayed in mural during his rule? b) What of elements and mythical-historical narratives are found in the paintings? c) Which Saddam's political views were subject to the collective memory through mural? Employing visual semiotics, this study reveals that during Saddam Hussein's regime, the paintings were initially simple portraits but gradually transformed into narrative images, characterized by a complex network of historical, mythical and religious elements. These elements demonstrate the transformation of a secular-nationalist politician into a Muslim ruler who tried to instill three major policies in domestic and international relations i.e. the arabization of Iraq, as well as the propagation of pan-arabism ideology (first period), the implementation of anti-Israel policy (second period) and the implementation of anti-American-British policy (last period).

Keywords: Ba'ath Party, Saddam Hussein, mural, Iraq, propaganda, collective memory

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Authors: Nayan Kishore Giri, Ramakar Jha

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Water is a major element for the life of all the mankind in the earth. India’s surface water flows through fourteen major streams. Indian rivers are the main source of potable water in India. In the eastern part of India many toxic hazardous metals discharged into the river from mining industries, which leads many deadly diseases to human being. So the potable water quality is very significant and vital concern at present as it is related with the present and future health perspective of the human race. Consciousness of health risks linked with unsafe water is still very low among the many rural and urban areas in India. Only about 7% of total Indian people using water purifier. This unhealthy situation of water is not only present in India but also present in many underdeveloped countries. The major reason behind this is the high cost of water purifier. This current study geared towards development of economical and efficient technology for the removal of maximum possible toxic metals and pathogen bacteria. The work involves the design of portable purification system and purifying material. In this design Coconut shell granular activated carbon(GAC) and polypropylene filter cloths were used in this system. The activated carbon is impregnated with Iron(Fe). Iron is used because it enhances the adsorption capacity of activated carbon. The thorough analysis of iron impregnated activated carbon(Fe-AC) is done by Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM), X-ray diffraction (XRD) , BET surface area test were done. Then 10 ppm of each toxic metal were infiltrated through the designed purification system and they were analysed in Atomic absorption spectrum (AAS). The results are very promising and it is low cost. This work will help many people who are in need of potable water. They can be benefited for its affordability. It could be helpful in industries and other domestic usage.

Keywords: potable water, coconut shell GAC, polypropylene filter cloths, SEM, XRD, BET, AAS

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Authors: El Hadji Mamadou Sonko, Ndiogou Sankhare, Maïmouna Lo, Jean Birane Gning, Cheikh Diop

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In Senegal, access to water, hygiene, and sanitation in small island towns is a particular problem, which is still poorly understood by the public authorities and development aid actors. The main objective of this study carried out in the Municipality of Foundiougne is to contribute to the knowledge of the problems related to the supply of drinking water, access to sanitation, and hygiene in small island towns in Senegal. The methodology adopted consisted of a literature review and quantitative surveys of a sample of 100 households in the Municipality. Semi-structured interviews using interview guides and informal interviews were also conducted with mechanical and manual emptiers, municipal authorities, public toilet managers, and neighbourhood leaders. Direct observation with photography was also used. The results show that, with regard to access to drinking water, 35% of households have unimproved water services, 46% have a limited level of service, and 19% have a basic level of service. Regarding sanitation, 77% of households are considered to have access to basic sanitation services, compared to 23% with limited sanitation services. However, these figures hide the dysfunctions of the sanitation system. Indeed, manual emptying is practiced exclusively by 4% of households, while 17% of households combine it with mechanical emptying. In addition, domestic wastewater is mainly evacuated outside the sanitation facilities, and all the sludge extracted from the pits is discharged directly into the environment without treatment. As a matter of fact, the surveys showed that 52% of households do not have access to a basic level of hygiene-related to handwashing when leaving the toilet. These results show that there is real work to be done at the level of small urban centres if we want to achieve MDG 6.

Keywords: Foundiougne, Senegal, small island, small town, water-sanitation, hygiene

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Authors: Roya Yumul, Chse, Ofelia Loani Elvir Lazo, David Chernobylsky, Omar Durra

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Background: Preoperative anxiety has been shown to be caused by the fear associated with surgical and anesthetic complications; however, the current gold standard for assessing patient anxiety, the STAI, is problematic to use in the preoperative setting given the duration and concentration required to complete the 40-item extensive questionnaire. Our primary aim in the study is to investigate the correlation of the Visual Facial Anxiety Scale (VFAS) and Numerical Verbal Rating Scale (NVRS) to State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI) to determine the optimal anxiety scale to use in the perioperative setting. Methods: A clinical study of patients undergoing various surgeries was conducted utilizing each of the preoperative anxiety scales. Inclusion criteria included patients undergoing elective surgeries, while exclusion criteria included patients with anesthesia contraindications, inability to comprehend instructions, impaired judgement, substance abuse history, and those pregnant or lactating. 293 patients were analyzed in terms of demographics, anxiety scale survey results, and anesthesia data via Spearman Coefficients, Chi-Squared Analysis, and Fischer’s exact test utilized for comparison analysis. Results: Statistical analysis showed that VFAS had a higher correlation to STAI than NVRS (rs=0.66, p<0.0001 vs. rs=0.64, p<0.0001). The combined VFAS-Categorization Scores showed the highest correlation with the gold standard (rs=0.72, p<0.0001). Subgroup analysis showed similar results. STAI evaluation time (247.7 ± 54.81 sec) far exceeds VFAS (7.29 ± 1.61 sec), NVRS (7.23 ± 1.60 sec), and Categorization scales (7.29 ± 1.99 sec). Patients preferred VFAS (54.4%), Categorization (11.6%), and NVRS (8.8%). Anesthesiologists preferred VFAS (63.9%), NVRS (22.1%), and Categorization Scales (14.0%). Of note, the top five causes of preoperative anxiety were determined to be waiting (56.5%), pain (42.5%), family concerns (40.5%), no information about surgery (40.1%), or anesthesia (31.6%). Conclusions: Combined VFAS-Categorization Score (VCS) demonstrates the highest correlation to the gold standard, STAI. Both VFAS and Categorization tests also take significantly less time than STAI, which is critical in the preoperative setting. Among both patients and anesthesiologists, VFAS was the most preferred scale. This forms the basis of the Yumul FACES Anxiety Scale, designed for quick quantization and assessment in the preoperative setting while maintaining a high correlation to the golden standard. Additional studies using the formulated Yumul FACES Anxiety Scale are merited.

Keywords: numerical verbal anxiety scale, preoperative anxiety, state-trait anxiety inventory, visual facial anxiety scale

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Authors: Ivan Zupan, Tomislav Saric, Suzana Tkalcic

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IMUNO-2865® is a commercially available, β–glucan based, natural hemicellulose compound with proven immunostimulative properties in people, domestic and some aquatic animals. During the experimental feeding trial with IMUNO-2865® in juvenile wild-caught chub under laboratory conditions, supplementation resulted in overall higher growth performance for all experimental groups regardless of the concentration of the added compound. The maximum, 5% concentration of the supplement, resulted in highest weight gain and calculated specific growth rate. In sea bream, as economically most important species in the Mediterranean aquaculture, significant increases in numbers of monocytes and heterophils were observed in the group supplemented with 2.5 % of IMUNO-2865® in the feed. An overall increase of erythrocytes was noted by the end of the experiment, although with variable distribution among groups. Blood Ca++ levels, total proteins, and total NH₃ were significantly higher after 60 days of feeding in all treatment groups compared to the control and remained elevated in the treated group following the secession of supplementation. Superoxide dismutase (SOD), glutathione peroxidase (GSH-Px) and serum paraoxonase PON1 (U/L) showed similar trends. All these parameters are playing a significant role in either oxygen supplementation of tissues, or anabolic and catabolic processes that on molecular levels contribute to the overall health and immune-building capacity of cells and tissues. The complete lack of mortality in sea bream and presented increases in cellular, biochemical and oxidative stress parameters in the blood suggest that the IMUNO-2865® represents a safe dietary supplement for in aquaculture, with an overall positive and potentially immunostimulative effect on farmed fish.

Keywords: IMUNO-2865®, β–glucans, Mediterranean aquaculture, fish imunnostimulans

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Authors: Po-Ching Chou, Wen-Chen Liang, I. Chen Chen, Jong-Hau Hsu, Yuh-Jyh Jong

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Background：Cardiopulmonary complications seem to cause high morbidity and mortality in patients with neuromuscular diseases (NMD) but so far there is no domestic data reported in Taiwan. We, therefore attempted to analyze the factors to cause the death in NMD patients from our cohort. Methods：From 1998 to 2013, we retrospectively collected the information of the NMD patients treated and followed up in Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital. Forty-two patients with NMD who expired during these fifteen years were enrolled. The medical records of these patients were reviewed and the causes of death and the associated affecting factors were analyzed. Results：Eighteen patients with NMD (mean age=13.3, SD=12.4) with complete medical record and detailed information were finally included in this study, including spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) (n=9, 7/9: type 1), Duchenne muscular dystrophy (n=6), congenital muscular dystrophy (n=1), carnitine acyl-carnitine translocase (CACT) deficiency (n=1) and spinal muscular atrophy with respiratory distress (SMARD)(n=1). The place of death was in ICU (n=11, 61%), emergency room (n=3, 16.6%) or home (n=4, 22.2%). For SMA type 1 patients, most of them (71.4%, 5/7) died in emergency room or home and the other two expired during an ICU admission. The causes of death included acute respiratory failure due to pneumonia (n=13, 72.2 %), ventilator failure or dislocation (n=2, 11.1%), suffocation/choking (n=2, 11.1%), and heart failure with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (n=1, 5.55%). Among the 15 patients died of respiratory failure or choking, 73.3% of the patients (n=11) received no ventilator care at home. 80% of the patients (n=12) received no cough assist at home. The patient died of cardiomyopathy received no medications for heart failure until the last admission. Conclusion: Respiratory failure and choking are the leading causes of death in NMD patients. Appropriate respiratory support and airway clearance play the critical role to reduce the mortality.

Keywords: neuromuscular disease, cause of death, tertiary care hospital, medical sciences

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Authors: Dishari Rakshit, Mitchell Gallagher

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The global landscape is witnessing a disconcerting surge in democratic backsliding, engendering concerns over the rise of autocratisation. This research demonstrates the intricate relationship between a nation's domestic propensity for autocratic governance and its trade relations with China. Giving prominence to Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) investments, this study adopts a rigorous neorealist framework to discern the complexities of nations' economic interests amidst an anarchic milieu and how these interests may transcend steadfast adherence to democratic principles. The burgeoning bipolarity in the international political setting serves as a backdrop to our inquiry. To operationalise our hypothesis, we conduct a large-scale 'N' study, encompassing a comprehensive global dataset comprising countries' democracy indicators, total trade volume with China, and cumulative Chinese BRI investments over a substantial temporal expanse. By meticulously examining BRI signatories’, we aim to ascertain the potential accentuation of democratic backsliding among these nations. To test our empirical underpinning, we will validate our findings through cogent case studies. Our analysis adds to the scholarship on multifaceted interactions between trade dynamics and democratic governance within the fabric of the international political landscape. In its culmination, the paper addresses the question- has the erstwhile grandeur of bipolarity resurfaced in the contemporary global panorama? Concurrently, we explore the nexus between the ascendant wave of autocratisation as a by-product of the Beijing Consensus? Pertinent to policymakers, our discoveries stand poised to furnish a comprehensive grasp of the manifold implications arising from the deepening entanglements with China under the auspices of the BRI.

Keywords: democracy, autocracy, china, belt road initiative, international political economy

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Authors: Mohammed Masum, Mohammad Omer Faruk Khan, Md. Nazwanul Haque, Anwar Sadat Md. Sayem, Md. Azhar Hossain

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The study area is the Hakaluki Haor which is the second largest wet land of Bangladesh. It spans over the districts of Moulvibazar and Sylhet in southeast Bangladesh. The study was focused in the exploration of peat reserve, reconstruction of the paleo-environment as well as the utilization of the peat resources. Peat is found randomly from 0.5 m to 7 m below the surface and 1 m to 11 m thickness at over 40 beels as well as small plain lands of 90 km2 area of Hakaluki Haor. The total reserve of peat is 282 million ton in wet condition and 112 million ton in dry condition. The peat deposits of Hakaluki Haor area is the largest peat reserves of the Bangladesh. Peat bearing Hakaluki Haor is a low-lying wet land which geological term is synclinal depression. It may be a syncline between two anticlines which was filled with sediments as well as various plant materials derived from the hilly region (anticline) on both sides (west and east) of the Haor. The transportation may be triggered by large natural disasters or any tectonic reason. On the other hand vegetation occurred in this depression as aquatic plants which might have been destroyed by large natural disasters or any tectonic reason. As environment dictates the characteristics and the source of sediments, various aspects of the sediment are indicators of the environment. Peat has mainly industrial importance as a fuel for power production, traditionally used for cooking, domestic heating and in brick fields, also used as insulator in many industries, agricultural purposes, retaining moisture in soil, raw material in horticulture and colour industries etc. Power plants of about 100 MW capacities may be established in this region based on peat of Hakaluki Haor which may be continued more than one hundred years.

Keywords: peat, pale environment, Hakaluki Haor, beel, syncline, anticline

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Authors: Syed Noaman Shah

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The current paper evaluates the effect of external public debt risk on the borrowing cost of private non-financial firms in euro zone. Further, the study also treats the impact of austerity measures on syndicated-loan spreads of private firm followed by euro area member states to revive the economic growth in the region. To test these hypotheses, we follow multivariate ordinary least square estimation method to assess the effect of external public debt on the borrowing cost of private firms. By using foreign syndicated-loan issuance data of non-financial private firms from 2005 to 2011, we attempt to gauge how the private financing cost varies with high levels of sovereign external debt prevalent in the euro zone. Our results suggest significant effect of external public debt on the borrowing cost of private firm. In particular, an increase in external public debt by one standard deviation from its sample mean raises syndicated-loan spread by 89 bps. Furthermore, weak creditor rights protection prevalent in member states deepens this effect. However, we do not find any significant effect of domestic public debt on the private sector borrowing cost. In addition, the results show significant effect of austerity measures on private financing cost, both in normal and in crisis period in the euro zone. In particular, one standard deviation change in fiscal consolidation conditional mean reduces the syndicated-loan spread by 22 bps. In turn, it indicates strong presence of credibility channel due to austerity measures in euro area region.

Keywords: corporate debt, fiscal consolidation, sovereign debt, syndicated-loan spread

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Authors: Shazia Anwer

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The current TV Talk Shows, especially on domestic politics in Pakistan are following the Aristotelian techniques, including deductive reasoning, three modes of persuasion, and guidelines for communication. The application of “Approximate Truth is also seen when Talk Show presenters create doubts against political personalities or national issues. Mainstream media of Pakistan, being a key carrier of narrative construction for the sake of the primary function of national consensus on regional and extended public diplomacy, is failing the purpose. This paper has highlighted the Aristotelian communication methodology, its purposes and its limitations for a serious discussion, and its connection to the mistrust among the Pakistani population regarding fake or embedded, funded Information. Data has been collected from 3 Pakistani TV Talk Shows and their analysis has been made by applying the Aristotelian communication method to highlight the core issues. Paper has also elaborated that current media education is impaired in providing transparent techniques to train the future journalist for a meaningful, thought-provoking discussion. For this reason, this paper has given an overview of HEC’s (Higher Education Commission) graduate-level Mass Com Syllabus for Pakistani Universities. The idea of ethos, logos, and pathos are the main components of TV Talk Shows and as a result, the educated audience is lacking trust in the mainstream media, which eventually generating feelings of distrust and betrayal in the society because productions look like the genre of Drama instead of facts and analysis thus the line between Current Affairs shows and Infotainment has become blurred. In the last section, practical implication to improve meaningfulness and transparency in the TV Talk shows has been suggested by replacing the Aristotelian communication method with the cognitive semiotic communication approach.

Keywords: Aristotelian techniques of communication, current affairs talk shows, drama, Pakistan

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Authors: Kourosh Ghaffari, Baghaei Azhang

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This study aims to address two main questions whether a camp designed for refugees will affect their quality of life and how to effectively incorporate ecotech architecture into the architectural design of a refugee camp. The current study planned to ensure that the final design reflects the principles of ecotech architecture in most refugee camps. The design process has taken into account various factors, including flexibility, diversity in the camp space according to the ecotech approach, expandability in the building, spatial hierarchy in the design of camp spaces, and the assignment of territories and space sanctuaries to refugees. It should be noted that this study is not a research-oriented type of study and is only limited to collecting information and making hypotheses and questions related to the plan. The researchers attempted to provide a general summary of similar domestic and foreign examples and examine them in similar conditions using the ecotech architecture. The research method utilized in this study was qualitative. Afterwards, the climate studies of the target area, citing and paying attention to the criteria and points extracted from the theoretical framework, reaching the desired conclusion and examining similar examples were followed. Additionally, placement on the site, compliance with relevant standards and regulations, attention to the content and physical program, and addressing the idea and its evolution in all the details of the plan were presented. The data collection procedure included observation and library studies, and the design method was to determine and recognize the subject and examine similar samples. In conclusion, the principles of theoretical foundations, the design protocols in ecotech architecture and the scope of the study are dealt. Furthermore, the site analysis, the design process and the final plan are presented.

Keywords: ecotech architecture, livable city, shelter, refugee camp

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Authors: Claudia Seabra, Elisabeth Kastenholz, José Luís Abrantes, Manuel Reis

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In a world of increasing mobility and global risks, terrorism has, in a perverse way, capitalized on contemporaneous society’s growing interest in travel to explore a world whose national boundaries and distances have decreased. Terrorists have identified the modern tourist flows originated from the economically more developed countries as new appealing targets so as to: i) call attention to the causes they defend and ii) destroy a country’s foundations of tourism, with the final aim of disrupting the economic and consequently social fabric of the affected countries. The present study analyses sensitivity towards risk and travel behaviors in international travel amongst a sample of 600 international tourists from 49 countries travelling by air. Specifically, the sample was segmented according to the Global Peace Index. This index defines country profiles regarding the levels of peace. The indicators used are established over three broad themes: i) ongoing domestic and international conflict; ii) societal safety and security; and iii) militarisation. Tourists were segmented, according to their country of origin, in different levels of peacefulness. Several facets of travel behavior were evaluated, namely motivations, attitude towards trip planning, quality perception and perceived value of the trip. Also factors related with risk perception were evaluated, specifically terrorism risk perception during the trip, unsafety sensation as well as importance attributed to safety in travel. Results contribute to our understanding of the role of previous exposure to the lack of peace and safety at home in the international tourists behaviors, which is further discussed in terms of tourism management and marketing implications which should particularly interest tourism services and destinations more affected by terrorism, war, political turmoil, crime and other safety risks.

Keywords: terrorism, tourism, safety, risk perception

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Authors: Sharon Jackson, Lynn Kelly

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This paper proposes a conceptual review of the interdisciplinary literature which has theorised the concept of ‘children’s voices’. The primary aim is to identify and consider the theoretical relevance of conceptual thought on ‘children’s voices’ for research and practice in child protection contexts. Attending to the ‘voice of the child’ has become a core principle of social work practice in contemporary child protection contexts. Discourses of voice permeate the legislative, policy and practice frameworks of child protection practices within the UK and internationally. Voice is positioned within a ‘child-centred’ moral imperative to ‘hear the voices’ of children and take their preferences and perspectives into account. This practice is now considered to be central to working in a child-centered way. The genesis of this call to voice is revealed through sociological analysis of twentieth-century child welfare reform as rooted inter alia in intersecting political, social and cultural discourses which have situated children and childhood as cites of state intervention as enshrined in the 1989 United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child ratified by the UK government in 1991 and more specifically Article 12 of the convention. From a policy and practice perspective, the professional ‘capturing’ of children’s voices has come to saturate child protection practice. This has incited a stream of directives, resources, advisory publications and ‘how-to’ guides which attempt to articulate practice methods to ‘listen’, ‘hear’ and above all – ‘capture’ the ‘voice of the child’. The idiom ‘capturing the voice of the child’ is frequently invoked within the literature to express the requirements of the child-centered practice task to be accomplished. Despite the centrality of voice, and an obsession with ‘capturing’ voices, evidence from research, inspection processes, serious case reviews, child abuse and death inquires has consistently highlighted professional neglect of ‘the voice of the child’. Notable research studies have highlighted the relative absence of the child’s voice in social work assessment practices, a troubling lack of meaningful engagement with children and the need to more thoroughly examine communicative practices in child protection contexts. As a consequence, the project of capturing ‘the voice of the child’ has intensified, and there has been an increasing focus on developing methods and professional skills to attend to voice. This has been guided by a recognition that professionals often lack the skills and training to engage with children in age-appropriate ways. We argue however that the problem with ‘capturing’ and [re]representing ‘voice’ in child protection contexts is, more fundamentally, a failure to adequately theorise the concept of ‘voice’ in the ‘voice of the child’. For the most part, ‘The voice of the child’ incorporates psychological conceptions of child development. While these concepts are useful in the context of direct work with children, they fail to consider other strands of sociological thought, which position ‘the voice of the child’ within an agentic paradigm to emphasise the active agency of the child.

Keywords: child-centered, child protection, views of the child, voice of the child

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Authors: Nausheen Irshad

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Human-wildlife conflict (HWC) exists in both developed and developing countries though it is more serious in developing nations. Knowledge of species ecology and species sensitivity to anthropogenic pressures is an important prerequisite for conservation/management. Therefore, three districts (Poonch, Bagh, and Muzaffarabad) of Azad Jammu and Kashmir were selected to highlight the wildlife hunting practices from January 2015 to November 2018. The study area was thoroughly explored to recover dead animals. Moreover, the local community was investigated (questionnaire survey) to catch on motives of killing. The results showed HWC mainly arises due to feeding habits of wild animals as some are frugivorous (small Indian civet and small Kashmir flying squirrel) who damaged human cultivated fruit trees. Besides, Indian crested porcupine and wild boar act as serious crop pests. The feeding upon domestic animals (common leopard) and poultry (Asiatic Jackal and Red fox) were also reported as factors of conflict. Hence numerous wild animals and birds (N=120) were found killed by natives in revenge. Despite protected status in Pakistan, the killed mammals belonged to categories of critically endangered (Panthera pardus) and near threatened (Viverricula indica) species. The important birds include critically endangered (Falco peregrines) and endangered (Lophura leucomelanos) species. It was found that mammals were primarily killed due to HWC (60%) followed by recreation (20%) and trade (15%) Whereas, the foremost hunting reasons for birds are recreation (50%), food (25%) and trade (25%). The drastic hunting/killing of the species needs our immediate attention. This unwarranted killing must be stopped forthwith otherwise these animals become extinct.

Keywords: Azad Jammu and Kashmir, anthropogenic pressures, endangered species, human-wildlife conflicts

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Authors: Mumtaz Ahmed Sohag, Ishaq Ahmed Sohag

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Kebbi State, located in the Nort-West of Nigeria, is rich in water resources as the major rivers viz. Niger and Rima irrigate a vast majority of land. Besides, there is significant amount of groundwater, which farmers use for agriculture purpose. The groundwater is also a major source of agricultural and domestic water as wells are installed in almost all parts of the region. Although Kebbi State is rich in water, however, there are some pertinent issues which are hampering its agricultural productivity. The low lands (locally called Fadama), has spread out to a vast area. It is inundated every year during the rainy season which lasts from June to September every year. The farmers grow rice during the rainy season when water is standing. They cannot do further agricultural activity for almost two months due to high standing water. This has resulted in widespread waterlogging problem. Besides, the impact of climate change is resulting in rapid variation in river/stream flows. The information about water bodies regarding the availability of water for agricultural and other uses and the behavior of rivers at different flows is seldom available. Furthermore, sediment load (suspended and bedload) is not measured due to which land erosion cannot be countered effectively. This study, carried out in seven different irrigation regions of Kebbi state, found that diversion structures need to be constructed at some strategic locations for the supply of surface water to the farmers. The water table needs to be lowered through an effective drainage system. The monitoring of water bodies is crucial for sound data to help efficient regulation and management of water. Construction of embankments is necessary to control frequent floods in the rivers of Niger and Rima. Furthermore, farmers need capacity and awareness for participatory irrigation management.

Keywords: water bodies, floods, agriculture, waterlogging

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Authors: Ofelia Loani Elvir Lazo, Roya Yumul, David Chernobylsky, Omar Durra

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Background: It is crucial to detect the patient’s existing anxiety to assist patients in a perioperative setting which is to be caused by the fear associated with surgical and anesthetic complications. However, the current gold standard for assessing patient anxiety, the STAI, is problematic to use in the preoperative setting, given the duration and concentration required to complete the 40-item questionnaire. Our primary aim in the study is to investigate the correlation of the Yumul Visual Facial Anxiety Scale (VFAS) and Numerical Verbal Rating Scale (NVRS) to State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI) to determine the optimal anxiety scale to use in the perioperative setting. Methods: A clinical study of patients undergoing various surgeries was conducted utilizing each of the preoperative anxiety scales. Inclusion criteria included patients undergoing elective surgeries, while exclusion criteria included patients with anesthesia contraindications, inability to comprehend instructions, impaired judgement, substance abuse history, and those pregnant or lactating. 293 patients were analyzed in terms of demographics, anxiety scale survey results, and anesthesia data via Spearman Coefficients, Chi-Squared Analysis, and Fischer’s exact test utilized for comparative analysis. Results: Statistical analysis showed that VFAS had a higher correlation to STAI than NVRS (rs=0.66, p<0.0001 vs. rs=0.64, p<0.0001). The combined VFAS-Categorization Scores showed the highest correlation with the gold standard (rs=0.72, p<0.0001). Subgroup analysis showed similar results. STAI evaluation time (247.7 ± 54.81 sec) far exceeds VFAS (7.29 ± 1.61 sec), NVRS (7.23 ± 1.60 sec), and Categorization scales (7.29 ± 1.99 sec). Patients preferred VFAS (54.4%), Categorization (11.6%), and NVRS (8.8%). Anesthesiologists preferred VFAS (63.9%), NVRS (22.1%), and Categorization Scales (14.0%). Of note, the top five causes of preoperative anxiety were determined to be waiting (56.5%), pain (42.5%), family concerns (40.5%), no information about surgery (40.1%), or anesthesia (31.6%). Conclusıons: Both VFAS and Categorization tests also take significantly less time than STAI, which is critical in the preoperative setting. Combined VFAS-Categorization Score (VCS) demonstrates the highest correlation to the gold standard, STAI. Among both patients and anesthesiologists, VFAS was the most preferred scale. This forms the basis of the Yumul Faces Anxiety Scale, designed for quick quantization and assessment in the preoperative setting while maintaining a high correlation to the golden standard. Additional studies using the formulated Yumul Faces Anxiety Scale are merited.

Keywords: numerical verbal anxiety scale, preoperative anxiety, state-trait anxiety inventory, visual facial anxiety scale

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Authors: Raya Morag

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This paper proposes a new paradigm for cinema/trauma studies - the trauma of the perpetrator. Canonical trauma research from Freud’s Aetiology of Hysteria to the present has been carried out from the perspective of identification with the victim, as have cinema trauma research and contemporary humanities-based trauma studies, climaxing during the 1990s in widespread interest in the victim vis-à-vis the Holocaust, war, and domestic violence. Breaking over 100 years of repression of the abhorrent and rejected concept of the perpetrator in psychoanalytic-based research proposes an uncanny shift in our conception of psychoanalysis' trajectory from women's 'hysteria' to 'post-traumatic stress disorder'. This new paradigm is driven by the global emergence of new waves of films (2007-2015) representing trauma suffered by perpetrators involved in the new style of war entailing deliberate targeting of non-combatants. Analyzing prominent examples from Israeli post-second Intifada documentaries (e.g., Ari Folman’s Waltz with Bashir), and post post-Iraq (and Afghanistan) War American documentaries (e.g., Errol Morris' Standard Operating Procedure), the paper discusses the limitations of victim trauma by the firm boundaries it (rightly) set in order to defend such victims of nineteenth and especially twentieth-century catastrophes; the epistemological processes needed in order to consider perpetrators’ trauma as an inevitable part of psychiatric-psychological and cultural perspectives on trauma, and, thus, the definition of perpetrators' trauma in contrast to victims'. It also analyzes the perpetrator's figure in order to go beyond the limitation of current trauma theory's relation to the Real, thus transgressing the 'unspeakableness' of the trauma itself. The paper seeks an exploration of what perpetrator trauma teaches us not only as a counter-paradigm to victim trauma, but as a reflection on the complex intertwining of the two paradigms in the twenty-first century collective new war unconscious, and on what psychoanalysis might offer us in the first decade of this terrorized-ethnicized century.

Keywords: American war documentaries, Israeli war documentaries, 'new war', perpetrator trauma

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Authors: M. Stewart, Ameer Al-Khaykan, J. M. Counsell

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Emissions are a consequence of electricity generation. A major option for low carbon generation, local energy systems featuring Combined Heat and Power with solar PV (CHPV) has significant potential to increase energy performance, increase resilience, and offer greater control of local energy prices while complementing the UK’s emissions standards and targets. Recent advances in dynamic modelling and simulation of buildings and clusters of buildings using the IDEAS framework have successfully validated a novel multi-vector (simultaneous control of both heat and electricity) approach to integrating the wide range of primary and secondary plant typical of local energy systems designs including CHP, solar PV, gas boilers, absorption chillers and thermal energy storage, and associated electrical and hot water networks, all operating under a single unified control strategy. Results from this work indicate through simulation that integrated control of thermal storage can have a pivotal role in optimizing system performance well beyond the present expectations. Environmental impact analysis and reporting of all energy systems including CHPV LES presently employ a static annual average carbon emissions intensity for grid supplied electricity. This paper focuses on establishing and validating CHPV environmental performance against conventional emissions values and assessment benchmarks to analyze emissions performance without and with an active thermal store in a notional group of non-domestic buildings. Results of this analysis are presented and discussed in context of performance validation and quantifying the reduced environmental impact of CHPV systems with active energy storage in comparison with conventional LES designs.

Keywords: CHPV, thermal storage, control, dynamic simulation

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Authors: Tengqin Han

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Delinquency has been a crucial factor in economics throughout the years. Commonly seen in credit card and mortgage, it played one of the crucial roles in causing the most recent financial crisis in 2008. In each case, a delinquency is a sign of the loaner being unable to pay off the debt, and thus may cause a lost of property in the end. Individually, one case of delinquency seems unimportant compared to the entire credit system. China, as an emerging economic entity, the national strength and economic strength has grown rapidly, and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has remained as high as 8% in the past decades. However, potential risks exist behind the appearance of prosperity. Among the risks, the credit system is the most significant one. Due to long term and a large amount of balance of the mortgage, it is critical to monitor the risk during the performance period. In this project, about 300,000 mortgage account data are analyzed in order to develop a predictive model to predict the probability of delinquency. Through univariate analysis, the data is cleaned up, and through bivariate analysis, the variables with strong predictive power are detected. The project is divided into two parts. In the first part, the analysis data of 2005 are split into 2 parts, 60% for model development, and 40% for in-time model validation. The KS of model development is 31, and the KS for in-time validation is 31, indicating the model is stable. In addition, the model is further validation by out-of-time validation, which uses 40% of 2006 data, and KS is 33. This indicates the model is still stable and robust. In the second part, the model is improved by the addition of macroeconomic economic indexes, including GDP, consumer price index, unemployment rate, inflation rate, etc. The data of 2005 to 2010 is used for model development and validation. Compared with the base model (without microeconomic variables), KS is increased from 41 to 44, indicating that the macroeconomic variables can be used to improve the separation power of the model, and make the prediction more accurate.

Keywords: delinquency, mortgage, model development, model validation

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