Search results for: data driven decision making

Authors: Xuan Linh Nguyen, Tien Yin Chou, Yao Min Fang, Feng Cheng Lin, Thanh Van Hoang, Yin Min Huang

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In Vietnam, land use planning is the most important and powerful tool of the government for sustainable land use and land management. Nevertheless, many of land use planning locations are facing protests from surrounding households due to environmental impacts. In addition, locations are planned completely based on the subjective decisions of planners who are unsupported by tools or scientific methods. Hence, this research aims to assist the decision-makers in evaluating the rationality of planning locations by developing a Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) using approaches of Geographic Information System (GIS)-based technology, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) multi-criteria-based technique and Fuzzy set theory. An ArcGIS Desktop add-ins named SDSS-LUPA was developed to support users analyzing data and presenting results in friendly format. The Fuzzy-AHP method has been utilized as analytic model for this SDSS. There are 18 planned locations in Hung Ha district (Thai Binh province, Vietnam) as a case study. The experimental results indicated that the assessment threshold higher than 0.65 while the 18 planned locations were irrational because of close to residential areas or close to water sources. Some potential sites were also proposed to the authorities for consideration of land use planning changes.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy set theory, land use planning, spatial decision support system

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Authors: B. Sudarsan Baskar, S. Pooja Pragati, S. Raj Kumar

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The cost effectiveness in aircraft maintenance is of high privilege in the recent days. The cost effectiveness can be effectively made when line maintenance activities are incorporated at airports during Turn around time (TAT). The present work outcomes the shortcomings that affect the dispatching of the aircrafts, aiming at high fleet operability and low maintenance cost. The operational and cost constraints have been discussed and a suggestive alternative mechanism is proposed. The possible allocation of all deferred maintenance tasks to a set of all deferred maintenance tasks to a set of suitable airport resources have termed as alternative and is discussed in this paper from the data’s collected from the kingfisher airlines.

Keywords: decision support system, aircraft maintenance planning, maintenance-cost, RUL(remaining useful life), logistics, supply chain management

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Authors: Seher Arslankaya, Bahar Uludağ

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Meeting the needs and demands of customers and pleasing the customers are important requirements for companies in food sectors where the growth of competition is significantly unpredictable. Customer satisfaction is also one of the key concepts which is mainly driven by wide range of customer preference and expectation upon products and services introduced and delivered to them. In order to meet the customer demands, the companies that engage in food sectors are expected to have a well-managed set of Total Quality Management (TQM), which sets out to improve quality of products and services; to reduce costs and to increase customer satisfaction by restructuring traditional management practices. It aims to increase customer satisfaction by meeting (their) customer expectations and requirements. The achievement would be determined with the help of customer satisfaction surveys, which is done to obtain immediate feedback and to provide quick responses. In addition, the surveys would also assist the making of strategic planning which helps to anticipate customer future needs and expectations. Meanwhile, periodic measurement of customer satisfaction would be a must because with the better understanding of customers perceptions from the surveys (done by questioners), the companies would have a clear idea to identify their own strengths and weaknesses that help the companies keep their loyal customers; to stand in comparison toward their competitors and map out their future progress and improvement. In this study, we propose a survey based on customer satisfaction measurement method and its statistical analysis for sales and logistic activities of food firms. Customer satisfaction would be discussed in details. Furthermore, after analysing the data derived from the questionnaire that applied to customers by using the SPSS software, various results obtained from the application would be presented. By also applying ANOVA test, the study would analysis the existence of meaningful differences between customer demographic proportion and their perceptions. The purpose of this study is also to find out requirements which help to remove the effects that decrease customer satisfaction and produce loyal customers in food industry. For this purpose, the customer complaints are collected. Additionally, comments and suggestions are done according to the obtained results of surveys, which would be useful for the making-process of strategic planning in food industry.

Keywords: customer satisfaction measurement and analysis, food industry, SPSS, TQM

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Authors: Jacky Liu

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This paper develops a team sports outcome prediction system with potential for wide-ranging applications across various disciplines. Despite significant advancements in predictive analytics, existing studies in sports outcome predictions possess considerable limitations, including insufficient feature engineering and underutilization of advanced machine learning techniques, among others. To address these issues, we extend the Sports Cross Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (SRP-CRISP-DM) framework and propose a unique, comprehensive predictive system, using National Basketball Association (NBA) data as an example to test this extended framework. Our approach follows a holistic methodology in feature engineering, employing both Time Series and Non-Time Series Data, as well as conducting Explanatory Data Analysis and Feature Selection. Furthermore, we contribute to the discourse on target variable choice in team sports outcome prediction, asserting that point spread prediction yields higher profits as opposed to game-winner predictions. Using machine learning algorithms, particularly XGBoost, results in a significant improvement in predictive accuracy of team sports outcomes. Applied to point spread betting strategies, it offers an astounding annual return of approximately 900% on an initial investment of $100. Our findings not only contribute to academic literature, but have critical practical implications for sports betting. Our study advances the understanding of team sports outcome prediction a burgeoning are in complex system predictions and pave the way for potential profitability and more informed decision making in sports betting markets.

Keywords: machine learning, team sports, game outcome prediction, sports betting, profits simulation

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Authors: Aditya Patil, Arun Patil, Vaishali Patil, Sudhir Chitnis, Anjum Patel

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Rapid growth has given e-commerce platforms a lot of client behavior and spending data. To maximize their strategy, businesses must understand how customers utilize online shopping platforms and what influences their purchases. Our research focuses on e-commerce user behavior and purchasing trends. This extensive study examines spending and user behavior. Regression and grouping disclose relevant data from the dataset. We can understand user spending trends via multilevel regression. We can analyze how pricing, user demographics, and product categories affect customer purchase decisions with this technique. Clustering groups consumers by spending. Important information was found. Purchase habits vary by user group. Our analysis illuminates the complex world of e-commerce consumer behavior and purchase trends. Understanding user behavior helps create effective e-commerce marketing strategies. This market can benefit from K-means clustering. This study focuses on tailoring strategies to user groups and improving product and price effectiveness. Customer buying behaviors across categories were shown via K-means clusters. Average spending is highest in Cluster 4 and lowest in Cluster 3. Clothing is less popular than gadgets and appliances around the holidays. Cluster spending distribution is examined using average variables. Our research enhances e-commerce analytics. Companies can improve customer service and decision-making with this data.

Keywords: e-commerce, regression, clustering, k-means

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Authors: Umit Duru

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The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was tested for prediction of water balance and sediment yield in the Ankara gauged basin, Turkey. The overall objective of this study was to evaluate the performance and applicability of the SWAT in this region of Turkey. Thirteen years of monthly stream flow, and suspended sediment, data were used for calibration and validation. This research assessed model performance based on differences between observed and predicted suspended sediment yield during calibration (1987-1996) and validation (1982-1984) periods. Statistical comparisons of suspended sediment produced values for NSE (Nash Sutcliffe efficiency), RE (relative error), and R² (coefficient of determination), of 0.81, -1.55, and 0.93, respectively, during the calibration period, and NSE, RE (%), and R² of 0.77, -2.61, and 0.87, respectively, during the validation period. Based on the analyses, SWAT satisfactorily simulated observed hydrology and sediment yields and can be used as a tool in decision making for water resources planning and management in the basin.

Keywords: calibration, GIS, sediment yield, SWAT, validation

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Authors: Jessica Kate Simonds

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The last successful hijacking perpetrated by Somali pirates in 2012 represented a critical turning point for the identity and brand of Indian Ocean (IO) insecurity, coined in this paper as the era of the post-piratical. This paper explores the broadening of the PMSC business model to account and contribute to the design of a new IO security environment that prioritises foreign and insurgency drone activity and Houthi rebel operations as the main threat to merchant shipping in the post-2012 era. This study is situated within a longer history of analysing maritime insecurity and also contributes a bespoke conceptual framework that understands the sea as a space that is produced and reproduced relative to existing and emerging threats to merchant shipping based on bespoke models of information sharing and intelligence acquisition. This paper also makes a prominent empirical contribution by drawing on a post-positivist methodology, data drawn from original semi-structured interviews with senior maritime insurers and active merchant seafarers that is triangulated with industry-produced guidance such as the BMP series as primary data sources. Each set is analysed through qualitative discourse and content analysis and supported by the quantitative data sets provided by the IMB Piracy Reporting center and intelligence networks. This analysis reveals that mechanisms such as the IGP&I Maritime Security Committee and intelligence divisions of PMSC’s have driven the exchanges of knowledge between land and sea and thus the reproduction of the maritime security environment through new regulations and guidance to account dones, rebels and bombs as the key challenges in the IO, beyond piracy. A contribution of this paper is the argument that experts who may not be in the highest-profile jobs are the architects of maritime insecurity based on their detailed knowledge and connections to vessels in transit. This paper shares the original insights of those who have served in critical decision making spaces to demonstrate that the development and refinement of industry produced deterrence guidance that has been accredited to the mitigation of piracy, have shaped new editions such as BMP 5 that now serve to frame a new security environment that prioritises the mitigation of risks from drones and WBEID’s from both state and insurgency risk groups. By highlighting the experiences and perspectives of key players on both land and at sea, the key finding of this paper is outlining that as pirates experienced a financial boom by profiteering from their bespoke business model during the peak of successful hijackings, the private security market encountered a similar level of financial success and guaranteed risk environment in which to prospect business. Thus, the reproduction of the Indian Ocean as a maritime security environment reflects a new found purpose for PMSC’s as part of the broader conglomerate of maritime insurers, regulators, shipowners and managers who continue to redirect the security consciousness and IO brand of insecurity.

Keywords: maritime security, private security, risk intelligence, political geography, international relations, political economy, maritime law, security studies

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Authors: Yuguang Gao, Mingtao Deng

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The integration of independently operating hospitals into a unified healthcare service system has become a strategic imperative in the pursuit of hospitals’ high-quality development. Central to the concept of group governance over such transformation, exemplified by a collaborative medical alliance, is the delineation of shared value, vision, and goals. Given the inherent disparity in capabilities among hospitals within the alliance, particularly in the treatment of different diseases characterized by Disease Related Groups (DRG) in terms of effectiveness, efficiency and resource utilization, this study aims to address the centralized decision-making of intra-hospital patient referral within the medical alliance to enhance the overall production and quality of service provided. We first introduce the notion of production utility, where a higher production utility for a hospital implies better performance in treating patients diagnosed with that specific DRG group of diseases. Then, a Discrete-Event Simulation (DES) framework is established for patient referral among hospitals, where patient flow modeling incorporates a queueing system with fixed capacities for each hospital. The simulation study begins with a two-member alliance. The pivotal strategy examined is a "whether-to-refer" decision triggered when the bed usage rate surpasses a predefined threshold for either hospital. Then, the decision encompasses referring patients to the other hospital based on DRG groups’ production utility differentials as well as bed availability. The objective is to maximize the total production utility of the alliance while minimizing patients’ average length of stay and turnover rate. Thus the parameter under scrutiny is the bed usage rate threshold, influencing the efficacy of the referral strategy. Extending the study to a three-member alliance, which could readily be generalized to multi-member alliances, we maintain the core setup while introducing an additional “which-to-refer" decision that involves referring patients with specific DRG groups to the member hospital according to their respective production utility rankings. The overarching goal remains consistent, for which the bed usage rate threshold is once again a focal point for analysis. For the two-member alliance scenario, our simulation results indicate that the optimal bed usage rate threshold hinges on the discrepancy in the number of beds between member hospitals, the distribution of DRG groups among incoming patients, and variations in production utilities across hospitals. Transitioning to the three-member alliance, we observe similar dependencies on these parameters. Additionally, it becomes evident that an imbalanced distribution of DRG diagnoses and further disparity in production utilities among member hospitals may lead to an increase in the turnover rate. In general, it was found that the intra-hospital referral mechanism enhances the overall production utility of the medical alliance compared to individual hospitals without partnership. Patients’ average length of stay is also reduced, showcasing the positive impact of the collaborative approach. However, the turnover rate exhibits variability based on parameter setups, particularly when patients are redirected within the alliance. In conclusion, the re-structuring of diagnostic disease groups within the medical alliance proves instrumental in improving overall healthcare service outcomes, providing a compelling rationale for the government's promotion of patient referrals within collaborative medical alliances.

Keywords: collaborative medical alliance, disease related group, patient referral, simulation

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Authors: Norma Kok, Diemo Masuko, Thandokazi Dlongwana, Komala Pillay

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CONTEXT: While many school principals have been outstanding teachers and have inherent leadership potential, many have not had access to the quality of leadership development or support that empowers them to produce high-quality education outcomes in extremely challenging circumstances. Further, school leaders in under-served communities face formidable challenges arising from insufficient infrastructure, overcrowded classrooms, socio-economic challenges within the community, and insufficient parental involvement, all of which put a strain on principals’ ability to lead their schools effectively. In addition few school leaders have access to other supportive networks, and many do not know how to build and leverage social capital to create opportunities for their schools and learners. Moreover, we know that fostering parental involvement in their children’s learning improves a child’s morale, attitude, and academic achievement across all subject areas, and promotes better behaviour and social adjustment. Citizen Leader Lab facilitates the Partners for Possibility (PfP) programme to provide leadership development and support to school leaders serving under-resourced communities in South Africa to create effective environments of learning. This is done by creating partnerships between school leaders and private-sector business leaders over a 12-month period. (185) OBJECTIVES: To explore school leaders’ perceptions of their leadership capacities and changes at their schools after being exposed to a year-long leadership development training programme. METHODS: School leaders gained new leadership capacities e.g. resilience, improved confidence, communication and conflict resolution skills - catalysing into improved cultures of collaborative decision-making and environments for enhanced teaching and learningprogramme based on the 70:20:10 model whereby: 10% of learning comes from workshops, 20% of learning takes place through peer learning and 70% of learning occurs through experiential learning as partnerships work together to identify and tackle challenges in targeted schools. Participants completed a post-programme questionnaire consisting of structured and unstructured questions and semi-structured interviews were conducted with them and their business leader. The interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed and thematic content analysis was undertaken. The analysis was inductive and emerging themes were identified. A code list was generated after coding was undertaken using computer software (Dedoose). Quantitative data gathered from surveys was aggregated and analysed. RESULTS: School leadership found the programme interesting and rewarding. They gained new leadership capacities such as resilience, improved confidence, communication and conflict resolution skills - catalyzing into improved cultures of collaborative decision-making and environments for enhanced teaching and learning. New networks resulted in tangible outcomes such as upgrades to school infrastructure, water and sanitation, vegetable gardens at schools resulting in nutrition for learners and/or intangible outcomes such as skills for members of school management teams (SMTs). Collaborative leadership led to SMTs being more aligned, efficient, and cohesive; and teachers being more engaged and motivated. Notable positive changes at the school inspired parents and community members to become more actively involved in the school and in their children’s education. CONCLUSION: The PfP programme leads to improved leadership capacities and improved school culture which leads to improved teaching and learning and new resources for schools.

Keywords: collaborative decision-making, collaborative leadership, community involvement, confidence

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Authors: Feyi Olorunshola

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Over the last few years, the senior travel market has been noted for its potential in the wider tourism industry. The tourism sector includes the hotel and hospitality, travel, transportation, and several other subdivisions to make it economically viable. In particular, the hotel attracts a substantial part of the expenditure in tourism activities as when people plan to travel, suitable accommodation for relaxation, dining, entertainment and so on is paramount to their decision-making. The global retail value of the hotel as of 2018 was significant for tourism. But, despite indications of the hotel to the tourism industry at large, very few empirical studies are available to establish how this sector can leverage on the senior demographic to achieve competitive advantage. Predominantly, studies on the mature market have focused on destination tourism, with a limited investigation on the hotel which makes a significant contribution to tourism. Also, several scholarly studies have demonstrated the importance of the senior travel market to the hotel, yet there is very little empirical research in the field which has explored the driving factors that will become the accepted new normal for this niche segment post-pandemic. Giving that the hotel already operates in a highly saturated business environment, and on top of this pre-existing challenge, the ongoing global health outbreak has further put the sector in a vulnerable position. Therefore, the hotel especially the full-service luxury category must evolve rapidly for it to survive in the current business environment. The hotel can no longer rely on corporate travelers to generate higher revenue since the unprecedented wake of the pandemic in 2020 many organizations have invented a different approach of conducting their businesses online, therefore, the hotel needs to anticipate a significant drop in business travellers. However, the rooms and the rest of the facilities must be occupied to keep their business operating. The way forward for the hotel lies in the leisure sector, but the question now is to focus on the potential demographics of travelers, in this case, the seniors who have been repeatedly recognized as the lucrative market because of increase discretionary income, availability of time and the global population trends. To achieve the study objectives, a mixed-method approach will be utilized drawing on both qualitative (netnography) and quantitative (survey) methods, cognitive and decision-making theories (means-end chain) and competitive theories to identify the salient drivers explaining senior hotel choice and its influence on their decision-making. The target population are repeated seniors’ age 65 years and over who are UK resident, and from the top tourist market to the UK (USA, Germany, and France). Structural equation modelling will be employed to analyze the datasets. The theoretical implication is the development of new concepts using a robust research design, and as well as advancing existing framework to hotel study. Practically, it will provide the hotel management with the latest information to design a competitive marketing strategy and activities to target the mature market post-pandemic and over a long period.

Keywords: competitive advantage, covid-19, full-service hotel, five-star, luxury hotels

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Authors: Najla Althuniyan

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Online discussions take place across different platforms. These discussions have the potential to extract crowd wisdom and capture the collective intelligence from a different perspective. However, certain phenomena, such as controversy, often appear in online argumentation that makes the discussion between participants heated. Heated discussions can be used to extract new knowledge. Therefore, detecting the presence of controversy is an essential task to determine if collective intelligence can be extracted from online discussions. This paper uses existing measures for estimating controversy quantitatively in cyber-argumentation. First, it defines controversy in different fields, and then it identifies the attributes of controversy in online discussions. The distributions of user opinions and the distance between opinions are used to calculate the controversial degree of a discussion. Finally, the results from each controversy measure are discussed and analyzed using an empirical study generated by a cyber-argumentation tool. This is an improvement over the existing measurements because it does not require ground-truth data or specific settings and can be adapted to distribution-based or distance-based opinions.

Keywords: online argumentation, controversy, collective intelligence, agreement analysis, collaborative decision-making, fuzzy logic

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Authors: Shawna M. Margesson

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This research study seeks to explore the lived experience of peer support workers (PSWs) in a peer-led non-governmental organization in Denver, Colorado, USA. The Colorado Mental Wellness Network offers supportive wellness recovery services such as wellness recovery action plans (WRAP), advocacy trainings for anti-stigma campaigns, and PSWs to work with and for consumers in the community. This study suggests that a peer-run environment is a unique community setting for PSWs to work given all employees are living in mental wellness recovery. Little has been documented about PSWs' personal accounts of working within a recovery-oriented organization and their first-person accounts to working with consumers. The importance of this study is to provide an ethnographic account of both subjects; the lived experiences of PSWs of both organizational and consumer-driven recovery. This study seeks to add to the literature and the social work profession the personal accounts of PSWs as they provide services to others like themselves. It also will provide an additional lens to view the peer-driven movement in mental health and wellness recovery.

Keywords: peer to peer movement, mental health, ethnography, peer support workers

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Authors: Jessica Ho

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AI has helped government, businesses and industries transform the way they do things. AI is used in automating tasks to improve decision-making and efficiency. AI is embedded in sensors and used in automation to help save time and eliminate human errors in repetitive tasks. Today, we saw the growth in AI using the collection of vast amounts of data to forecast with greater accuracy, inform decision-making, adapt to changing market conditions and offer more personalised service based on consumer habits and preferences. Government around the world share the opportunity to leverage these disruptive technologies to improve productivity while reducing costs. In addition, these intelligent solutions can also help streamline government processes to deliver more seamless and intuitive user experiences for employees and citizens. This is a critical challenge for NSW Government as we are unable to determine the risk that is brought by the unprecedented pace of adoption of AI solutions in government. Government agencies must ensure that their use of AI complies with relevant laws and regulatory requirements, including those related to data privacy and security. Furthermore, there will always be ethical concerns surrounding the use of AI, such as the potential for bias, intellectual property rights and its impact on job security. Within NSW’s public sector, agencies are already testing AI for crowd control, infrastructure management, fraud compliance, public safety, transport, and police surveillance. Citizens are also attracted to the ease of use and accessibility of AI solutions without requiring specialised technical skills. This increased accessibility also comes with balancing a higher risk and exposure to the health and safety of citizens. On the other side, public agencies struggle with keeping up with this pace while minimising risks, but the low entry cost and open-source nature of generative AI led to a rapid increase in the development of AI powered apps organically – “There is an AI for That” in Government. Other challenges include the fact that there appeared to be no legislative provisions that expressly authorise the NSW Government to use an AI to make decision. On the global stage, there were too many actors in the regulatory space, and a sovereign response is needed to minimise multiplicity and regulatory burden. Therefore, traditional corporate risk and governance framework and regulation and legislation frameworks will need to be evaluated for AI unique challenges due to their rapidly evolving nature, ethical considerations, and heightened regulatory scrutiny impacting the safety of consumers and increased risks for Government. Creating an effective, efficient NSW Government’s governance regime, adapted to the range of different approaches to the applications of AI, is not a mere matter of overcoming technical challenges. Technologies have a wide range of social effects on our surroundings and behaviours. There is compelling evidence to show that Australia's sustained social and economic advancement depends on AI's ability to spur economic growth, boost productivity, and address a wide range of societal and political issues. AI may also inflict significant damage. If such harm is not addressed, the public's confidence in this kind of innovation will be weakened. This paper suggests several AI regulatory approaches for consideration that is forward-looking and agile while simultaneously fostering innovation and human rights. The anticipated outcome is to ensure that NSW Government matches the rising levels of innovation in AI technologies with the appropriate and balanced innovation in AI governance.

Keywords: artificial inteligence, machine learning, rules, governance, government

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Authors: Lee Jeong Min, Lee Mi Hee, Eo Yang Dam

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Geospatial feature extraction is a very important issue in the remote sensing research. In the meantime, the image classification based on statistical techniques, but, in recent years, data mining and machine learning techniques for automated image processing technology is being applied to remote sensing it has focused on improved results generated possibility. In this study, artificial neural network and decision tree technique is applied to classify the high-resolution satellite images, as compared to the MLC processing result is a statistical technique and an analysis of the pros and cons between each of the techniques.

Keywords: remote sensing, artificial neural network, decision tree, maximum likelihood classification

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Authors: Oshin Anand, Atanu Rakshit

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The vast increment in the e-commerce ventures makes this area a prominent research stream. Besides several quantified parameters, the textual content of reviews is a storehouse of many information that can educate companies and help them earn profit. This study is an attempt in this direction. The article attempts to categorize data based on a computed metric that quantifies the influencing capacity of reviews rendering two categories of high and low influential reviews. Further, each of these document is studied to conclude several product feature categories. Each of these categories along with the computed metric is converted to linguistic identifiers and are used in an association mining model. The article makes a novel attempt to combine feature attraction with quantified metric to categorize review text and finally provide frequent patterns that depict customer preferences. Frequent mentions in a highly influential score depict customer likes or preferred features in the product whereas prominent pattern in low influencing reviews highlights what is not important for customers. This is achieved using a hybrid approach of text mining for feature and term extraction, sentiment analysis, multicriteria decision-making technique and association mining model.

Keywords: association mining, customer preference, frequent pattern, online reviews, text mining

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Authors: Ali Moradiamani, Samaneh Sadat Sajjadi, Mahdi Jalili

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Power system analysis has been a major research topic in the generation and distribution sections, in both industry and academia, for a long time. Several load flow and fault analysis scenarios have been normally performed to study the performance of different parts of the grid in the context of, for example, voltage and frequency control. Software tools, such as PSCAD, PSSE, and PowerFactory DIgSILENT, have been developed to perform these analyses accurately. Distribution grid had been the passive part of the grid and had been known as the grid of consumers. However, a significant paradigm shift has happened with the emergence of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) in the distribution level. It means that the concept of power system analysis needs to be extended to the distribution grid, especially considering self sufficient technologies such as microgrids. Compared to the generation and transmission levels, the distribution level includes significantly more generation/consumption nodes thanks to PV rooftop solar generation and battery energy storage systems. In addition, different consumption profile is expected from household residents resulting in a diverse set of scenarios. Emergence of electric vehicles will absolutely make the environment more complicated considering their charging (and possibly discharging) requirements. These complexities, as well as the large size of distribution grids, create challenges for the available power system analysis software. In this paper, we study the requirements of simulation tools in the distribution grid and how data-driven algorithms are required to increase the accuracy of the simulation results.

Keywords: smart grids, distributed energy resources, electric vehicles, battery storage systsms, simulation tools

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Authors: Saba Ebrahimi, Hedieh Ashrafi

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Predicting the cover type of forests is a challenge for natural resource managers. In this project, we aim to perform a comprehensive comparative study of two well-known classification methods, support vector machine (SVM) and decision tree (DT). The comparison is first performed among different types of each classifier, and then the best of each classifier will be compared by considering different evaluation metrics. The effect of boosting and bagging for decision trees is also explored. Furthermore, the effect of principal component analysis (PCA) and feature selection is also investigated. During the project, the forest cover-type dataset from the remote sensing and GIS program is used in all computations.

Keywords: classification methods, support vector machine, decision tree, forest cover-type dataset

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Authors: Ismail El Gayar, Ossama Ismail, Yousri El Gamal

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This paper presented a technique to solve one of the transportation problems that faces us in real life which is the Bus Scheduling Problem. Most of the countries using buses in schools, companies and traveling offices as an example to transfer multiple passengers from many places to specific place and vice versa. This transferring process can cost time and money, so we build a decision support system that can solve this problem. In this paper, a genetic algorithm with the shortest path technique is used to generate a competitive solution to other well-known techniques. It also presents a comparison between our solution and other solutions for this problem.

Keywords: bus scheduling problem, decision support system, genetic algorithm, shortest path

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Authors: A. Coetzee, C. F. Kelly, E. Even-Zahav

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Dominant approaches to livestock production are harmful to the environment, human health and animal welfare, yet global meat consumption is rising. Sustainable alternative production approaches are therefore urgently required, and ‘free range’ is the main alternative for chicken meat offered in South Africa (and globally). Although the South African Poultry Association provides non-binding guidelines, there is a lack of formal definition and regulation of free range chicken production, meaning it is unclear what this alternative entails and if it is consistently practised (a trend observed globally). The objective of this exploratory qualitative case study is therefore to investigate who and what determines free range chicken. The case study, conducted from a social constructivist worldview, uses semi-structured interviews, photographs and document analysis to collect data. Interviews are conducted with those involved with bringing free range chicken to the market - farmers, chefs, retailers, and regulators. Data is analysed using thematic analysis to establish dominant patterns in the data. The five major themes identified (based on prevalence in data and on achieving the research objective) are: 1) free range means a bird reared with good animal welfare in mind, 2) free range means quality meat, 3) free range means a profitable business, 4) free range is determined by decision makers or by access to markets, and 5) free range is coupled with concerns about the lack of regulation. Unpacking the findings in the context of the literature reveals who and what determines free range. The research uncovers wide-ranging interpretations of ‘free range’, driven by the absence of formal regulation for free range chicken practices and the lack of independent private certification. This means that the term ‘free range’ is socially constructed, thus varied and complex. The case study also shows that whether chicken meat is free range is generally determined by those who have access to markets. Large retailers claim adherence to the internationally recognised Five Freedoms, also include in the South African Poultry Association Code of Good Practice, which others in the sector say are too broad to be meaningful. Producers describe animal welfare concerns as the main driver for how they practice/view free range production, yet these interpretations vary. An additional driver is a focus on human health, which participants achieve mainly through the use of antibiotic-free feed, resulting in what participants regard as higher quality meat. The participants are also strongly driven by business imperatives, with most stating that free range chicken should carry a higher price than conventionally-reared chicken due to increased production costs. Recommendations from this study focus on, inter alia, a need to understand consumers’ perspectives on free range chicken, given that those in the sector claim they are responding to consumer demand, and conducting environmental research such as life cycle assessment studies to establish the true (environmental) sustainability of free range production. At present, it seems the sector mostly responds to social sustainability: human health and animal welfare.

Keywords: chicken meat production, free range, socially constructed, sustainability

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Authors: Ahmed Hossam ElMolla, Mohamed Hatem Saleh, Hamza Mostafa, Lara Mamdouh, Yassin Wael

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Artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping industries, and its potential to revolutionize renewable energy and data center operations is immense. By harnessing AI's capabilities, we can optimize energy consumption, predict fluctuations in renewable energy generation, and improve the efficiency of data center infrastructure. This convergence of technologies promises a future where energy is managed more intelligently, sustainably, and cost-effectively. The integration of AI into renewable energy systems unlocks a wealth of opportunities. Machine learning algorithms can analyze vast amounts of data to forecast weather patterns, solar irradiance, and wind speeds, enabling more accurate energy production planning. AI-powered systems can optimize energy storage and grid management, ensuring a stable power supply even during intermittent renewable generation. Moreover, AI can identify maintenance needs for renewable energy infrastructure, preventing costly breakdowns and maximizing system lifespan. Data centers, which consume substantial amounts of energy, are prime candidates for AI-driven optimization. AI can analyze energy consumption patterns, identify inefficiencies, and recommend adjustments to cooling systems, server utilization, and power distribution. Predictive maintenance using AI can prevent equipment failures, reducing energy waste and downtime. Additionally, AI can optimize data placement and retrieval, minimizing energy consumption associated with data transfer. As AI transforms renewable energy and data center operations, modified Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) will emerge. Traditional metrics like energy efficiency and cost-per-megawatt-hour will continue to be relevant, but additional KPIs focused on AI's impact will be essential. These might include AI-driven cost savings, predictive accuracy of energy generation and consumption, and the reduction of carbon emissions attributed to AI-optimized operations. By tracking these KPIs, organizations can measure the success of their AI initiatives and identify areas for improvement. Ultimately, the synergy between AI, renewable energy, and data centers holds the potential to create a more sustainable and resilient future. By embracing these technologies, we can build smarter, greener, and more efficient systems that benefit both the environment and the economy.

Keywords: data center, artificial intelligence, renewable energy, energy efficiency, sustainability, optimization, predictive analytics, energy consumption, energy storage, grid management, data center optimization, key performance indicators, carbon emissions, resiliency

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Authors: Angie Al Habib, Khalid Al Siyabi

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To measure or asses any government’s efficiency we need to measure the performance of this government in regards to the quality of the service it provides. Using a technological platform in service provision became a trend and a public demand. It is also a public need to make sure these services are aligned to values and to the whole government’s strategy, vision and goals as well. Providing services using technology tools and channels can enhance the internal business process and also help establish many essential values to government services like transparency and excellence, since in order to establish e-services many standards and policies must be put in place to enable the handing over of decision making to a mature system oriented mechanism. There was no doubt that the Sultanate of Oman wanted to enhance its services and move it towards automation and establishes a smart government as well as links its services to life events. Measuring government efficiency is very essential in achieving social security and economic growth, since it can provide a clear dashboard of all projects and improvements. Based on this data we can improve the strategies and align the country goals to them.

Keywords: government, maturity, Oman, performance, service

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Authors: Katalin Kovacs

Abstract:

In most forms of violence the perpetrators intend to hide their identities. Terrorism is different. Terrorist groups often take responsibility for their attacks, and consequently they reveal their identities. This unique characteristic of terrorism has been largely overlooked, and scholars are still puzzled as to why terrorist groups claim responsibility for their attacks. Certainly, the claim of responsibility is worth analysing. It would help to have a clearer picture of what terrorist groups try to achieve and how, but also to develop an understanding of the strategic planning of terrorist attacks and the message the terrorists intend to deliver. The research aims to answer the question why terrorist groups choose to claim responsibility for some of their attacks and not for others. In order to do so the claim of responsibility is considered to be a tactical choice, based on the assumption that terrorists weigh the costs and benefits of claiming responsibility. The main argument is that terrorist groups do not claim responsibility in cases when there is no tactical advantage gained from claiming responsibility. The idea that the claim of responsibility has tactical value offers the opportunity to test these assertions using a large scale empirical analysis. The claim of responsibility as a tactical choice depends on other tactical choices, such as the choice of target, the internationality of the attack, the number of victims and whether the group occupies territory or operates as an underground group. The structure of the terrorist groups and the level of decision making also affects the claim of responsibility. Terrorists on the lower level are less disciplined than the leaders. This means that the terrorists on lower levels pay less attention to the strategic objectives and engage easier in indiscriminate violence, and consequently they would less like to claim responsibility. Therefore, the research argues that terrorists, who are on a highest level of decision making would claim responsibility for the attacks as those are who takes into account the strategic objectives. As most studies on terrorism fail to provide definitions; therefore the researches are fragmented and incomparable. Separate, isolated researches do not support comprehensive thinking. It is also very important to note that there are only a few researches using quantitative methods. The aim of the research is to develop a new and comprehensive overview of the claim of responsibility based on strong quantitative evidence. By using well-established definitions and operationalisation the current research focuses on a broad range of attributes that can have tactical values in order to determine circumstances when terrorists are more likely to claim responsibility.

Keywords: claim of responsibility, leadership, tactical choice, terrorist group

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Authors: Jan Van Uden

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The paper reviews classical agency-theory and its contributions to the analysis of complex business negotiations and gives an approach for the modification of the basic agency-model in order to examine the negotiation specific dimensions of agency-problems. By illustrating fundamental potentials for the modification of agency-theory in context of business negotiations the paper highlights recent empirical research that investigates agent-based negotiations and inter-team constellations. A general theoretical analysis of complex negotiation would be based on a two-level approach. First, the modification of the basic agency-model in order to illustrate the organizational context of business negotiations (i.e., multi-agent issues, common-agencies, multi-period models and the concept of bounded rationality). Second, the application of the modified agency-model on complex business negotiations to identify agency-problems and relating areas of risk in the negotiation process. The paper is placed on the first level of analysis – the modification. The method builds on the one hand on insights from behavior decision research (BRD) and on the other hand on findings from agency-theory as normative directives to the modification of the basic model. Through neoclassical assumptions concerning the fundamental aspects of agency-relationships in business negotiations (i.e., asymmetric information, self-interest, risk preferences and conflict of interests), agency-theory helps to draw solutions on stated worst-case-scenarios taken from the daily negotiation routine. As agency-theory is the only universal approach able to identify trade-offs between certain aspects of economic cooperation, insights obtained provide a deeper understanding of the forces that shape business negotiation complexity. The need for a modification of the basic model is illustrated by highlighting selected issues of business negotiations from agency-theory perspective: Negotiation Teams require a multi-agent approach under the condition that often decision-makers as superior-agents are part of the team. The diversity of competences and decision-making authority is a phenomenon that overrides the assumptions of classical agency-theory and varies greatly in context of certain forms of business negotiations. Further, the basic model is bound to dyadic relationships preceded by the delegation of decision-making authority and builds on a contractual created (vertical) hierarchy. As a result, horizontal dynamics within the negotiation team playing an important role for negotiation success are therefore not considered in the investigation of agency-problems. Also, the trade-off between short-term relationships within the negotiation sphere and the long-term relationships of the corporate sphere calls for a multi-period perspective taking into account the sphere-specific governance-mechanisms already established (i.e., reward and monitoring systems). Within the analysis, the implementation of bounded rationality is closely related to findings from BRD to assess the impact of negotiation behavior on underlying principal-agent-relationships. As empirical findings show, the disclosure and reservation of information to the agent affect his negotiation behavior as well as final negotiation outcomes. Last, in context of business negotiations, asymmetric information is often intended by decision-makers acting as superior-agents or principals which calls for a bilateral risk-approach to agency-relations.

Keywords: business negotiations, agency-theory, negotiation analysis, interteam negotiations

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Authors: Jessica Achebe, Susan Tighe

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The reduction of material consumption and greenhouse gas emission when maintain and rehabilitating road networks can achieve added benefits including improved life cycle performance of pavements, reduced climate change impacts and human health effect due to less air pollution, improved productivity due to an optimal allocation of resources and reduced road user cost. This is the essence of incorporating environmental sustainability into pavement management. The functionality of performance measurement approach has made it one of the most valuable tool to Pavement Management Systems (PMSs) to account for different criteria in the decision-making process. However measuring the environmental performance of road network is still a far-fetched practice in road network management, more so an ostensive agency-wide environmental sustainability or sustainable maintenance specifications is missing. To address this challenge, this present research focuses on the environmental sustainability performance of network-level pavement management. The ultimate goal is to develop a framework to incorporate environmental sustainability in pavement management systems for network-level maintenance programming. In order to achieve this goal, this paper present the first step, the intention is to review the previous studies that employed environmental performance measures, as well as the suitability of environmental performance indicators for the evaluation of the sustainability of network-level pavement maintenance strategies. Through an industry practice survey, this paper provides a brief forward regarding the pavement manager motivations and barriers to making more sustainable decisions, and data needed to support the network-level environmental sustainability. The trends in network-level sustainable pavement management are also presented, existing gaps are highlighted, and ideas are proposed for network-level sustainable maintenance and rehabilitation programming.

Keywords: pavement management, environment sustainability, network-level evaluation, performance measures

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Authors: Johannes Gantner, Michael Held, Matthias Fischer

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The refurbishment of the building stock in terms of energy supply and efficiency is one of the major challenges of the German turnaround in energy policy. As the building sector accounts for 40% of Germany’s total energy demand, additional insulation is key for energy efficient refurbished buildings. Nevertheless the energetic benefits often the environmental and economic performances of insulation materials are questioned. The methods Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) as well as Life Cycle Costing (LCC) can form the standardized basis for answering this doubts and more and more become important for material producers due efforts such as Product Environmental Footprint (PEF) or Environmental Product Declarations (EPD). Due to increasing use of LCA and LCC information for decision support the robustness and resilience of the results become crucial especially for support of decision and policy makers. LCA and LCC results are based on respective models which depend on technical parameters like efficiencies, material and energy demand, product output, etc.. Nevertheless, the influence of parameter uncertainties on lifecycle results are usually not considered or just studied superficially. Anyhow the effect of parameter uncertainties cannot be neglected. Based on the example of an exterior wall the overall lifecycle results are varying by a magnitude of more than three. As a result simple best case worst case analyses used in practice are not sufficient. These analyses allow for a first rude view on the results but are not taking effects into account such as error propagation. Thereby LCA practitioners cannot provide further guidance for decision makers. Probabilistic analyses enable LCA practitioners to gain deeper understanding of the LCA and LCC results and provide a better decision support. Within this study, the environmental and economic impacts of an exterior wall system over its whole lifecycle are illustrated, and the effect of different uncertainty analysis on the interpretation in terms of resilience and robustness are shown. Hereby the approaches of error propagation and Monte Carlo Simulations are applied and combined with statistical methods in order to allow for a deeper understanding and interpretation. All in all this study emphasis the need for a deeper and more detailed probabilistic evaluation based on statistical methods. Just by this, misleading interpretations can be avoided, and the results can be used for resilient and robust decisions.

Keywords: uncertainty, life cycle assessment, life cycle costing, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Abdoullah Nyassi, Golam Sarwar, Sarra Baldeh, Mamadou S. K. Jallow, Bai Lamin Dondeh, Isaac Osei, Grant A. Mackenzie

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A randomized controlled trial is the "gold standard" for evaluating the efficacy of an intervention. Large-scale, cluster-randomized trials are expensive and difficult to conduct, though. To guarantee the validity and generalizability of findings, high-quality, dependable, and accurate data management systems are necessary. Robust data management systems are crucial for optimizing and validating the quality, accuracy, and dependability of trial data. Regarding the difficulties of data gathering in clinical trials in low-resource areas, there is a scarcity of literature on this subject, which may raise concerns. Effective data management systems and implementation goals should be part of trial procedures. Publicizing the creative clinical data management techniques used in clinical trials should boost public confidence in the study's conclusions and encourage further replication. In the ongoing pneumococcal vaccine schedule study in rural Gambia, this report details the development and deployment of multi-data management systems and methodologies. We implemented six different data management, synchronization, and reporting systems using Microsoft Access, RedCap, SQL, Visual Basic, Ruby, and ASP.NET. Additionally, data synchronization tools were developed to integrate data from these systems into the central server for reporting systems. Clinician, lab, and field data validation systems and methodologies are the main topics of this report. Our process development efforts across all domains were driven by the complexity of research project data collected in real-time data, online reporting, data synchronization, and ways for cleaning and verifying data. Consequently, we effectively used multi-data management systems, demonstrating the value of creative approaches in enhancing the consistency, accuracy, and reporting of trial data in a poor resource setting.

Keywords: data management, data collection, data cleaning, cluster-randomized trial

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Authors: Pavel Shcherban, Viktoria Ivanova, Alexander Neprokin, Vladislav Golovanov

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Currently, LLC «Lukoil-Kaliningradmorneft» is implementing a comprehensive program for the development of offshore fields of the Kaliningrad region. This is largely associated with the depletion of the resource base of land in the region, as well as the positive results of geological investigation surrounding the Baltic Sea area and the data on the volume of hydrocarbon recovery from a single offshore field are working on the Kaliningrad region – D-6 «Kravtsovskoye».The article analyzes the main stages of the LLC «Lukoil-Kaliningradmorneft»’s development program for the development of the hydrocarbon resources of the region's shelf and suggests an optimization algorithm that allows managing a multi-criteria process of development of shelf deposits. The algorithm is formed on the basis of the problem of sequential decision making, which is a section of dynamic programming. Application of the algorithm during the consolidation of the initial data, the elaboration of project documentation, the further exploration and development of offshore fields will allow to optimize the complex of technical and technological solutions and increase the economic efficiency of the field development project implemented by LLC «Lukoil-Kaliningradmorneft».

Keywords: offshore fields of hydrocarbons of the Baltic Sea, development of offshore oil and gas fields, optimization of the field development scheme, solution of multicriteria tasks in oil and gas complex, quality management in oil and gas complex

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Authors: Jamila Mohammed Makarfi, Yontem Sonmez

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Developing countries like Nigeria have recently been affected by conflicts characterized by violence, high levels of risk and insecurity, resulting in loss of lives, livelihoods, displacement of communities, degradation of health, educational and social infrastructure as well as economic underdevelopment. The Nigerian government’s response to most of these conflicts has mainly been reactionary in the form of military deployments, as against precautionary to prevent or address the root causes of the conflicts. Several studies have shown that at various points of a conflict, conflict regions can benefit from the resources and expertise available outside the government, mainly from the private sector through mechanisms such as corporate social responsibility (CSR) by businesses. The main aim of this study is to examine the role of businesses in peacebuilding in Northern Nigeria through CSR in the last decade. The expected contributions from this will answer research questions, such as the key business motivations to engage in peacebuilding, as well as the degree of influence exerted from various stakeholder groups on the business decision to engage. The methodology of the study adopts a multiple case study of over 120 businesses of various sizes, ranging from small, medium and large-scale. A mixed method enabled the collection of quantitative and qualitative primary data to augment the secondary data. The results indicated that the most important business motivations to engage in peacebuilding were the negative effects of the conflict on economic stability, as well as stakeholder-driven motives. On the other hand, out of the 12 identified stakeholders, micro-, small- and medium-scale enterprises (MSMEs) considered the chief executive officer’s interest to be the most important factor, while large companies rated the government and community pressure as the highest. Overall, the foreign stakeholders scored low on the influence chart for all business types.

Keywords: conflict, corporate social responsibility, peacebuilding, stakeholder

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Authors: Safa Kaka

Abstract:

As more and more students are travelling to different countries to study and, in particular, to study English, the question of what motivates them to make such a large move has come under question. This is particularly pertinent in the case of Arab students who make up nearly 15% of the foreign student body in the UK. Given that the cultural differences between the UK and Arab nations are extremely wide, the decision to come to this country to study English must be driven by strong motivational forces. Numerous previous studies have considered what motivates foreign students to travel to the UK and other countries for their education or language learning but the specific motivators of Arab students have yet to be explored. This study undertakes to close that gap by examining the concepts and theories of motivation, both in general terms and in relation to English learning and foreign study. 70 Arab students currently studying in the UK were asked to participate in an online questionnaire which asked about their motivations for coming to the UK and for studying and learning English. A further six individuals were interviewed on a face to face basis. The outcomes have indicated that the factors which motivate the decision to come to the UK are similar to those that motivate the desire to learn English. In particular a motivation for self-improvement, career advancement and potential future benefits were cited by a number of respondents. Other indications were the ease of accessibility to the UK as an English speaking country, a motivation to experience different cultures and lifestyles and even political freedoms. Overall the motivations of Arab students were not found to be conspicuously different from those of other foreign students, although it was noted that their motivations did change, both positively and negatively following a period of time in the country. These changes were based on the expectations of the students pre-arrival and their actual experience of the country and its teaching approaches and establishments and were, as indicated both good and bad. The implications for the Arab student population and UK educational establishments are reviewed and future research pathways highlighted.

Keywords: motivation, Arab learners of English, language teaching, applied linguistics

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Authors: Fahsai Pawapootanont, Sasithon Yuwakosol

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The objectives of this research study are as follows: 1) Study the information-seeking behavior of followers of influencers on Facebook in making hotel booking decisions and 2) Study the characteristics of travel influencers that affect their followers' hotel booking decisions. The Data was collected by interviewing 35 key informants, consisting of 25 Thai tourists who were followers of travel influencers and 10 travel influencers, as well as collecting data using online questionnaires from a sample of 400 Thai tourists and using statistical data analysis: percentage, standard deviation, mean, T-Test and One-Way Analysis of Variance: ANOVA. The results of the influence of travel influencers on Facebook on hotel booking decisions in Thailand revealed the following: People in different age groups have different information-seeking behaviours. Depends on experience and aptitude in using technology. The sample group did not seek information from only one source. There is also a search for information from various places in order to get comparative information and the most truthful information to make decisions. In addition, travel influencers should be those who present honest, clear, and complete content. And present services honestly. In addition to the characteristics of travel influencers affecting hotel booking decisions, Presentation formats and platforms also affect hotel booking decisions. But it must be designed and presented to suit the behavior of the group of people we want. As for the influence of travel influencers, it can be concluded that The influence of travel influencers can influence their followers' interests and hotel booking decisions. However, it was found that there are other factors that followers of travel influencers on Facebook will factor into their decision to book a hotel, such as Whether the hotel's comfort meets your needs or not; location, price, and promotions also play an important role in deciding to book a hotel.

Keywords: influencer, travel, facebook, hotel booking decisions, Thailand

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