Search results for: longevity risk
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 6159

Search results for: longevity risk

4839 Modelling Forest Fire Risk in the Goaso Forest Area of Ghana: Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems Approach

Authors: Bernard Kumi-Boateng, Issaka Yakubu

Abstract:

Forest fire, which is, an uncontrolled fire occurring in nature has become a major concern for the Forestry Commission of Ghana (FCG). The forest fires in Ghana usually result in massive destruction and take a long time for the firefighting crews to gain control over the situation. In order to assess the effect of forest fire at local scale, it is important to consider the role fire plays in vegetation composition, biodiversity, soil erosion, and the hydrological cycle. The occurrence, frequency and behaviour of forest fires vary over time and space, primarily as a result of the complicated influences of changes in land use, vegetation composition, fire suppression efforts, and other indigenous factors. One of the forest zones in Ghana with a high level of vegetation stress is the Goaso forest area. The area has experienced changes in its traditional land use such as hunting, charcoal production, inefficient logging practices and rural abandonment patterns. These factors which were identified as major causes of forest fire, have recently modified the incidence of fire in the Goaso area. In spite of the incidence of forest fires in the Goaso forest area, most of the forest services do not provide a cartographic representation of the burned areas. This has resulted in significant amount of information being required by the firefighting unit of the FCG to understand fire risk factors and its spatial effects. This study uses Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System techniques to develop a fire risk hazard model using the Goaso Forest Area (GFA) as a case study. From the results of the study, natural forest, agricultural lands and plantation cover types were identified as the major fuel contributing loads. However, water bodies, roads and settlements were identified as minor fuel contributing loads. Based on the major and minor fuel contributing loads, a forest fire risk hazard model with a reasonable accuracy has been developed for the GFA to assist decision making.

Keywords: forest, GIS, remote sensing, Goaso

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4838 Health and Climate Changes: "Ippocrate" a New Alert System to Monitor and Identify High Risk

Authors: A. Calabrese, V. F. Uricchio, D. di Noia, S. Favale, C. Caiati, G. P. Maggi, G. Donvito, D. Diacono, S. Tangaro, A. Italiano, E. Riezzo, M. Zippitelli, M. Toriello, E. Celiberti, D. Festa, A. Colaianni

Abstract:

Climate change has a severe impact on human health. There is a vast literature demonstrating temperature increase is causally related to cardiovascular problem and represents a high risk for human health, but there are not study that improve a solution. In this work, it is studied how the clime influenced the human parameter through the analysis of climatic conditions in an area of the Apulia Region: Capurso Municipality. At the same time, medical personnel involved identified a set of variables useful to define an index describing health condition. These scientific studies are the base of an innovative alert system, IPPOCRATE, whose aim is to asses climate risk and share information to population at risk to support prevention and mitigation actions. IPPOCRATE is an e-health system, it is designed to provide technological support to analysis of health risk related to climate and provide tools for prevention and management of critical events. It is the first integrated system of prevention of human risk caused by climate change. IPPOCRATE calculates risk weighting meteorological data with the vulnerability of monitored subjects and uses mobile and cloud technologies to acquire and share information on different data channels. It is composed of four components: Multichannel Hub. Multichannel Hub is the ICT infrastructure used to feed IPPOCRATE cloud with a different type of data coming from remote monitoring devices, or imported from meteorological databases. Such data are ingested, transformed and elaborated in order to be dispatched towards mobile app and VoIP phone systems. IPPOCRATE Multichannel Hub uses open communication protocols to create a set of APIs useful to interface IPPOCRATE with 3rd party applications. Internally, it uses non-relational paradigm to create flexible and highly scalable database. WeHeart and Smart Application The wearable device WeHeart is equipped with sensors designed to measure following biometric variables: heart rate, systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure, blood oxygen saturation, body temperature and blood glucose for diabetic subjects. WeHeart is designed to be easy of use and non-invasive. For data acquisition, users need only to wear it and connect it to Smart Application by Bluetooth protocol. Easy Box was designed to take advantage from new technologies related to e-health care. EasyBox allows user to fully exploit all IPPOCRATE features. Its name, Easy Box, reveals its purpose of container for various devices that may be included depending on user needs. Territorial Registry is the IPPOCRATE web module reserved to medical personnel for monitoring, research and analysis activities. Territorial Registry allows to access to all information gathered by IPPOCRATE using GIS system in order to execute spatial analysis combining geographical data (climatological information and monitored data) with information regarding the clinical history of users and their personal details. Territorial Registry was designed for different type of users: control rooms managed by wide area health facilities, single health care center or single doctor. Territorial registry manages such hierarchy diversifying the access to system functionalities. IPPOCRATE is the first e-Health system focused on climate risk prevention.

Keywords: climate change, health risk, new technological system

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4837 Development and Validation of a Coronary Heart Disease Risk Score in Indian Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients

Authors: Faiz N. K. Yusufi, Aquil Ahmed, Jamal Ahmad

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Diabetes in India is growing at an alarming rate and the complications caused by it need to be controlled. Coronary heart disease (CHD) is one of the complications that will be discussed for prediction in this study. India has the second most number of diabetes patients in the world. To the best of our knowledge, there is no CHD risk score for Indian type 2 diabetes patients. Any form of CHD has been taken as the event of interest. A sample of 750 was determined and randomly collected from the Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Diabetes and Endocrinology, J.N.M.C., A.M.U., Aligarh, India. Collected variables include patients data such as sex, age, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), blood sugar fasting (BSF), post prandial sugar (PP), glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking, alcohol habits, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein (HDL), low density lipoprotein (LDL), very low density lipoprotein (VLDL), physical activity, duration of diabetes, diet control, history of antihypertensive drug treatment, family history of diabetes, waist circumference, hip circumference, medications, central obesity and history of CHD. Predictive risk scores of CHD events are designed by cox proportional hazard regression. Model calibration and discrimination is assessed from Hosmer Lemeshow and area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Overfitting and underfitting of the model is checked by applying regularization techniques and best method is selected between ridge, lasso and elastic net regression. Youden’s index is used to choose the optimal cut off point from the scores. Five year probability of CHD is predicted by both survival function and Markov chain two state model and the better technique is concluded. The risk scores for CHD developed can be calculated by doctors and patients for self-control of diabetes. Furthermore, the five-year probabilities can be implemented as well to forecast and maintain the condition of patients.

Keywords: coronary heart disease, cox proportional hazard regression, ROC curve, type 2 diabetes Mellitus

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4836 Monitoring Potential Temblor Localities as a Supplemental Risk Control System

Authors: Mikhail Zimin, Svetlana Zimina, Maxim Zimin

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Without question, the basic method of prevention of human and material losses is the provision for adequate strength of constructions. At the same time, seismic load has a stochastic character. So, at all times, there is little danger of earthquake forces exceeding the selected design load. This risk is very low, but the consequences of such events may be extremely serious. Very dangerous are also occasional mistakes in seismic zoning, soil conditions changing before temblors, and failure to take into account hazardous natural phenomena caused by earthquakes. Besides, it is known that temblors detrimentally affect the environmental situation in regions where they occur, resulting in panic and worsening various disease courses. It may lead to mistakes of personnel of hazardous production facilities like the production and distribution of gas and oil, which may provoke severe accidents. In addition, gas and oil pipelines often have long mileage and cross many perilous zones by contrast with buildings. This situation increases the risk of heavy accidents. In such cases, complex monitoring of potential earthquake localities would be relevant. Even though the number of successful real-time forecasts of earthquakes is not great, it is well in excess, such as may be under random guessing. Experimental performed time-lapse study and analysis consist of searching seismic, biological, meteorological, and light earthquake precursors, processing such data with the help of fuzzy sets, collecting weather information, utilizing a database of terrain, and computing risk of slope processes under the temblor in a given setting. Works were done in a real-time environment and broadly acceptable results took place. Observations from already in-place seismic recording systems are used. Furthermore, a look back study of precursors of known earthquakes is done. Situations before Ashkhabad, Tashkent, and Haicheng seismic events are analyzed. Fairish findings are obtained. Results of earthquake forecasts can be used for predicting dangerous natural phenomena caused by temblors such as avalanches and mudslides. They may also be utilized for prophylaxis of some diseases and their complications. Relevant software is worked out too. It should be emphasized that such control does not require serious financial expenses and can be performed by a small group of professionals. Thus, complex monitoring of potential earthquake localities, including short-term earthquake forecasts and analysis of possible hazardous consequences of temblors, may further the safety of pipeline facilities.

Keywords: risk, earthquake, monitoring, forecast, precursor

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4835 Importance of Risk Assessment in Managers´ Decision-Making Process

Authors: Mária Hudáková, Vladimír Míka, Katarína Hollá

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Making decisions is the core of management and a result of conscious activities which is under way in a particular environment and concrete conditions. The managers decide about the goals, procedures and about the methods how to respond to the changes and to the problems which developed. Their decisions affect the effectiveness, quality, economy and the overall successfulness in every organisation. In spite of this fact, they do not pay sufficient attention to the individual steps of the decision-making process. They emphasise more how to cope with the individual methods and techniques of making decisions and forget about the way how to cope with analysing the problem or assessing the individual solution variants. In many cases, the underestimating of the analytical phase can lead to an incorrect assessment of the problem and this can then negatively influence its further solution. Based on our analysis of the theoretical solutions by individual authors who are dealing with this area and the realised research in Slovakia and also abroad we can recognise an insufficient interest of the managers to assess the risks in the decision-making process. The goal of this paper is to assess the risks in the managers´ decision-making process relating to the conditions of the environment, to the subject’s activity (the manager’s personality), to the insufficient assessment of individual variants for solving the problems but also to situations when the arisen problem is not solved. The benefit of this paper is the effort to increase the need of the managers to deal with the risks during the decision-making process. It is important for every manager to assess the risks in his/her decision-making process and to make efforts to take such decisions which reflect the basic conditions, states and development of the environment in the best way and especially for the managers´ decisions to contribute to achieving the determined goals of the organisation as effectively as possible.

Keywords: risk, decision-making, manager, process, analysis, source of risk

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4834 Beyond the Water Seal: On-Field Observations of Occupational Hazards of Faecal Sludge Management in Southern Karnataka

Authors: Anissa Mary Thomas Thattil, Nancy Angeline Gnanaselvam, B. Ramakrishna Goud

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Faecal sludge management (FSM) is an unorganized sector, and in India, there is an absence of regulations regarding the collection, transport, treatment, and disposal of faecal sludge. FSM has a high degree of occupational hazards that need to be thoroughly understood in order to shape effective solutions. On-field observations of five FSM operations were conducted in Anekal Taluk of southern Karnataka. All five of the FSM operations were privately owned and snowball method of sampling was employed. Two types of FS operations observed were: mechanical emptying involving direct human contact with faecal sludge and mechanical emptying without direct human contact with faecal sludge. Each operation was manned by 3-4 faecal sludge operators (FSOs). None of the observed FSOs used personal protective equipment. According to the WHO semi-quantitative risk assessment, the very high risk occupational hazards identified were dermal contact with faecal sludge, inhalation of toxic gases, and social stigma. The high risk hazards identified were trips and falls, injuries, ergonomic hazards, substance abuse, and mental health problems. In all five FSM operations, the collected faecal sludge was discharged untreated onto abandoned land. FSM in India is fraught with occupational and environmental hazards which need to be urgently addressed. This includes formalizing the institution of FSM, contextualized behaviour change communication, capacity building of local bodies, awareness programmes among agriculturists and FSOs, and designation of sites for the safe harnessing of faecal sludge as soil nutrient.

Keywords: faecal sludge, faecal sludge management, FSM, occupational hazards, sanitation

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4833 KAP Study on Breast Cancer Among Women in Nirmala Educational Institutions-A Prospective Observational Study

Authors: Shaik Asha Begum, S. Joshna Rani, Shaik Abdul Rahaman

Abstract:

INTRODUCTION: Breast cancer is a disease that creates in breast cells. "KAP" study estimates the Knowledge, Attitude, and Practices of a local area. More than 1.5 million ladies (25% of all ladies with malignancy) are determined to have bosom disease consistently all through the world. Understanding the degrees of Knowledge, Attitude and Practice will empower a more effective cycle of mindfulness creation as it will permit the program to be custom-made all the more properly to the necessities of the local area. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study is to assess the knowledge on signs and symptoms, risk factors, provide awareness on the practicing of the early detection techniques of breast cancer and provide knowledge on the overall breast cancer including preventive techniques. METHODOLOGY: This is an expressive cross-sectional investigation. This investigation of KAP was done in the Nirmala Educational Institutions from January to April 2021. A total of 300 participants are included from women students in pharmacy graduates & lecturers, and also from graduates other than the pharmacy. The examiners are taken from the BCAM (Breast Cancer Awareness Measure), tool compartment (Version 2). RESULT: According to the findings of the study, the majority of the participants were not well informed about breast cancer. A lump in the breast was the most commonly mentioned sign of breast cancer, followed by pain in the breast or nipple. The percentage of knowledge related to the breast cancer risk factors was also very less. The correct answers for breast cancer risk factors were radiation exposure (58.20 percent), a positive family history (47.6 percent), obesity (46.9 percent), a lack of physical activity (43.6 percent), and smoking (43.2 percent). Breast cancer screening, on the other hand, was uncommon (only 30 and 11.3 percent practiced clinical breast examination and mammography respectively). CONCLUSION: In this study, the knowledge on the signs and symptoms, risk factors of breast cancer - pharmacy graduates have more knowledge than the non-pharmacy graduates but in the preventive techniques and early detective tools of breast cancer -had poor knowledge in the pharmacy and non-pharmacy graduate. After the awareness program, pharmacy and non-pharmacy graduates got supportive knowledge on the preventive techniques and also practiced the early detective techniques of breast cancer.

Keywords: breast cancer, mammography, KAP study, early detection

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4832 Analyzing the Ergonomic Design of Manual Material Handling in Chemical Industry: Case Study of Activity Task Weigh Liquid Catalyst to the Container Storage

Authors: Yayan Harry Yadi, L. Meily Kurniawidjaja

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Work activities for MMH (Manual Material Handling) in the storage of liquid catalyst raw material workstations in chemical industries identify high-risk MSDs (Musculoskeletal Disorders). Their work is often performed frequently requires an awkward body posture, twisting, bending because of physical space limited, cold, slippery, and limited tools for transfer container and weighing the liquid chemistry of the catalyst into the container. This study aims to develop an ergonomic work system design on the transfer and weighing process of liquid catalyst raw materials at the storage warehouse. A triangulation method through an interview, observation, and detail study team with assessing the level of risk work posture and complaints. Work postures were analyzed using the RULA method, through the support of CATIA software. The study concludes that ergonomic design can make reduce 3 levels of risk scores awkward posture. CATIA Software simulation provided a comprehensive solution for a better posture of manual material handling at task weigh. An addition of manual material handling tools such as adjustable conveyors, trolley and modification tools semi-mechanical weighing with techniques based on rule ergonomic design can reduce the hazard of chemical fluid spills.

Keywords: ergonomic design, MSDs, CATIA software, RULA, chemical industry

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4831 Fault Tree Analysis and Bayesian Network for Fire and Explosion of Crude Oil Tanks: Case Study

Authors: B. Zerouali, M. Kara, B. Hamaidi, H. Mahdjoub, S. Rouabhia

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In this paper, a safety analysis for crude oil tanks to prevent undesirable events that may cause catastrophic accidents. The estimation of the probability of damage to industrial systems is carried out through a series of steps, and in accordance with a specific methodology. In this context, this work involves developing an assessment tool and risk analysis at the level of crude oil tanks system, based primarily on identification of various potential causes of crude oil tanks fire and explosion by the use of Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), then improved risk modelling by Bayesian Networks (BNs). Bayesian approach in the evaluation of failure and quantification of risks is a dynamic analysis approach. For this reason, have been selected as an analytical tool in this study. Research concludes that the Bayesian networks have a distinct and effective method in the safety analysis because of the flexibility of its structure; it is suitable for a wide variety of accident scenarios.

Keywords: bayesian networks, crude oil tank, fault tree, prediction, safety

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4830 Landfill Design for Reclamation of Şırnak Coal Mine Dumps: Shalefill Stability and Risk Assessment

Authors: Yıldırım I. Tosun, Halim Cevizci, Hakan Ceylan

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By GEO5 FEM program with four rockfill slope modeling and stability analysis was performed for S1, S2, S3 and S4 slopes where landslides of the shalefills were limited. Effective angle of internal friction (φ'°) 17°-22.5°, the effective cohesion (c') from 0.5 to 1.8 kPa, saturated unit weight 1.78-2.43 g/cm3, natural unit weight 1.9-2.35 g/cm3, dry unit weight 1.97-2.40 g/cm3, the permeability coefficient of 1x10-4 - 6.5x10-4 cm/s. In cross-sections of the slope, GEO 5 FEM program possible critical surface tension was examined. Rockfill dump design was made to prevent sliding slopes. Bulk material designated geotechnical properties using also GEO5 programs FEM and stability program via a safety factor determined and calculated according to the values S3 and S4 No. slopes are stable S1 and S2 No. slopes were close to stable state that has been found to be risk. GEO5 programs with limestone rock fill dump through FEM program was found to exhibit stability.

Keywords: slope stability, stability analysis, rockfills, sock stability

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4829 Cellular Automata Model for Car Accidents at a Signalized Intersection

Authors: Rachid Marzoug, Noureddine Lakouari, Beatriz Castillo Téllez, Margarita Castillo Téllez, Gerardo Alberto Mejía Pérez

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This paper developed a two-lane cellular automata model to explain the relationship between car accidents at a signalized intersection and traffic-related parameters. It is found that the increase of the lane-changing probability P?ₕ? increases the risk of accidents, besides, the inflow α and the probability of accidents Pₐ? exhibit a nonlinear relationship. Furthermore, depending on the inflow, Pₐ? exhibits three different phases. The transition from phase I to phase II is of first (second) order when P?ₕ?=0 (P?ₕ?>0). However, the system exhibits a second (first) order transition from phase II to phase III when P?ₕ?=0 (P?ₕ?>0). In addition, when the inflow is not very high, the green light length of one road should be increased to improve road safety. Finally, simulation results show that the traffic at the intersection is safer adopting symmetric lane-changing rules than asymmetric ones.

Keywords: two-lane intersection, accidents, fatality risk, lane-changing, phase transition

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4828 Maternal Awareness of Sudden Infant Death Syndrome: A Jordanian Study

Authors: Nemeh Ahmad Al-Akour, Ibrahem Alfaouri

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Objective: To examine the level of maternal awareness of SIDS and its prevention amongst Jordanian mothers in the north of Jordan, as well as to determine their SIDS-related infant care practices. Design: A cross-sectional design. Setting: The study was conducted in maternal out-patients clinics of two teaching hospitals and three maternal and child health clinic in three major health care centers in Northern Jordan. Participants: A total of 356 mothers of infants attending the maternal and child health clinics were included in this study. Measurements and findings: A self-administered questionnaire was used for collecting data study. In this study, 64%of mothers didn’t hear about SIDS, while only 7% of mothers were able to identify factors risk-reducing recommendations. Avoidance of prone sleeping was the most frequently identified recommendation (5%). There were 67.7% of mothers who put their infant in a lateral position to sleep, 61% used soft mattress surface for their babies sleep and 25.8% who shared a bed with their babies. Employed mother, mothers of higher age, and mothers living within a nuclear family were the only factors associated with maternal awareness of SIDS. Friends were the highest a source of knowledge of SIDS for mothers (44.7%). Key conclusions: There was a low level of awareness of SIDS and its associated risk factor among the mothers in Jordan. The mothers' misconception about smoking and sleeping position for their infants requires further efforts. Implications for practice: To ensure raising awareness of infant care practice regarding SIDS, a national educational intervention on SIDS risk reduction strategies and recommendations is necessary for maintaining a low rate of SIDS in the population.

Keywords: bed sharing, infant care, Jordan, sleep position, sudden infant death

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4827 Unravelling the Relationship Between Maternal and Fetal ACE2 Gene Polymorphism and Preeclampsia Risk

Authors: Sonia Tamanna, Akramul Hassan, Mohammad Shakil Mahmood, Farzana Ansari, Gowhar Rashid, Mir Fahim Faisal, M. Zakir Hossain Howlader

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Background: Preeclampsia (PE), a pregnancy-specific hypertensive disorder, significantly impacts maternal and fetal health. It is particularly prevalent in underdeveloped countries and is linked to preterm delivery and fetal growth. The renin-angiotensin system (RAS) plays a crucial role in ensuring a successful pregnancy outcome, with Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme 2 (ACE2) being a key component. ACE2 converts ANG II to Ang-(1-7), offering protection against ANG II-induced stress and inflammation while regulating blood pressure and osmotic balance during pregnancy. The reduced maternal plasma angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) seen in preeclampsia might contribute to its pathogenesis. However, there has been a dearth of comprehensive research into the association between ACE2 gene polymorphism and preeclampsia. In the South Asian population, hypertension is strongly linked to two SNPs: rs2285666 and rs879922. This genotype was therefore considered, and the possible association of maternal and fetal ACE2 gene polymorphism with preeclampsia within the Bangladeshi population was evaluated. Method: DNA was extracted from peripheral white blood cells (WBCs) using the organic method, and SNP genotyping was done via PCR-RFLP. Odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated using logistic regression to determine relative risk. Result: A comprehensive case-control study was conducted on 51 PE patients and their infants, along with 56 control subjects and their infants. Maternal single nuvleotide polymorphisms (SNP) (rs2285666) analysis revealed a strong association between the TT genotype and preeclampsia, with a four-fold increased risk in mothers (P=0.024, OR=4.00, 95% CI=1.36-11.37) compared to their ancestral genotype CC. However, the CT genotype (rs2285666) showed no significant difference (P=0.46, OR=1.54, 95% CI=0.57-4.14). Notably, no significant correlation was found in infants, regardless of their gender. For rs879922, no significant association was observed in both mothers and infants. This pioneering study suggests that mothers carrying the ACE2 gene variant rs2285666 (TT allele) may be at higher risk for preeclampsia, potentially influencing hypertension characteristics, whereas rs879922 does not appear to be associated with developing preeclampsia. Conclusion: This study sheds light on the role of ACE2 gene polymorphism, particularly the rs2285666 TT allele, in maternal susceptibility to preeclampsia. However, rs879922 does not appear to be linked to the risk of PE. This research contributes to our understanding of the genetic underpinnings of preeclampsia, offering insights into potential avenues for prevention and management.

Keywords: ACE2, PCR-RFLP, preeclampsia, single nuvleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)

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4826 Protection Not Punishment: Use of Electronic Monitoring to Reduce the Risk of Cross-Border Parental Child Abduction

Authors: Nazia Yaqub

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Globally, the number of cases of international parental child abduction has remained consistent in the past decade despite the legal provision designed to prevent and deter abduction, and so it appears the current legal approach to prevent abduction is lacking. Reflecting on the findings of an empirical study conducted by the author between 2017-19 on parental abduction from the UK, the article considers a solution to the predicament of protecting children at risk of abduction through electronic monitoring. The electronic monitoring of children has negative connotations, particularly in its use in the criminal justice system, yet in the context of family law proceedings, the article considers whether electronic monitoring could serve a protective rather than a punitive purpose. The article reflects on the use of electronic monitoring in parental abduction cases by the Family Courts and examines the ethical considerations of the proposal, drawing on the rights found in the European Convention on Human Rights and the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child.

Keywords: law, parental child abduction, electronic monitoring, legal solutions

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4825 Trends in Endoscopic Versus Open Treatment of Carpal Tunnel Syndrome in Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients

Authors: Arman Kishan, Sanjay Kubsad, Steve Li, Mark Haft, Duc Nguyen, Dawn Laporte

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Objective: Carpal tunnel syndrome can be managed surgically with endoscopic or open carpal tunnel release (CTR). Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a known risk factor for Carpal Tunnel Syndrome (CTS) and is believed to be related to compression of the median nerve secondary to inflammation. We aimed to analyze national trends, outcomes, and patient-specific comorbidities associated with ECTR and OCTR in patients with RA. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using the PearlDiver database, identifying 683 RA patients undergoing ECTR and 4234 undergoing OCTR between 2010 and 2014. Demographic data, comorbidities, and complication rates were analyzed. Univariate and multivariable analyses assessed differences between the treatment methods. Results:  Patients with RA undergoing ECTR in comparison to OCTR had no significant differences in medical comorbidities such as hypertension, obesity, chronic kidney disease, hypothyroidism and diabetes mellitus. Patients in the ECTR group reported a risk ratio of 1.44 (95%CI: 1.10-1.89, p=0.01) of requiring repeat procedures within 90 days of the initial procedure. Five-year trends in ECTR and OCTR procedures reported a combined annual growth rate of 5.6% and 13.15, respectively. Conclusion: Endoscopic and open approaches to CTR are important considerations in surgical planning. RA and ECTR have previously been identified as independent risk factors for revision CTR. Our study has identified the 90-day risk of repeat procedures to be elevated in the ECTR group in comparison to the OCTR group. Additionally, the growth of OCTR procedures has outpaced the growth of ECTR procedures in the same period, likely in response to the trend of ECTR leading to higher rates of repeat procedures. The need for revision following ECTR in patients with RA could be related to chronic inflammation leading to transverse carpal ligament thickening and concomitant tenosynovitis. Future directions could include further characterization of repeat procedures performed in this subset of patients. 

Keywords: endoscopic treatment of carpal tunnel syndrome, open treatment of carpal tunnel syndrome, rheumatoid arthritis, trends analysis, carpal tunnel syndrome

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4824 Breast Cancer Therapy-Related Cardiac Dysfunction Identifying in Kazakhstan: Preliminary Findings of the Cohort Study

Authors: Saule Balmagambetova, Zhenisgul Tlegenova, Saule Madinova

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Cardiotoxicity associated with anticancer treatment, now defined as cancer therapy-related cardiac dysfunction (CTRCD), accompanies cancer patients and negatively impacts their survivorship. Currently, a cardio-oncological service is being created in Kazakhstan based on the provisions of the European Society of Cardio-oncology (ESC) Guidelines. In the frames of a pilot project, a cohort study on CTRCD conditions was initiated at the Aktobe Cancer center. One hundred twenty-eight newly diagnosed breast cancer patients started on doxorubicin and/or trastuzumab were recruited. Echocardiography with global longitudinal strain (GLS) assessment, biomarkers panel (cardiac troponin (cTnI), brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), myeloperoxidase (MPO), galectin-3 (Gal-3), D-dimers, C-reactive protein (CRP)), and other tests were performed at baseline and every three months. Patients were stratified by the cardiovascular risks according to the ESC recommendations and allocated into the risk groups during the pre-treatment visit. Of them, 10 (7.8%) patients were assigned to the high-risk group, 48 (37.5%) to the medium-risk group, and 70 (54.7%) to the low-risk group, respectively. High-risk patients have been receiving their cardioprotective treatment from the outset. Patients were also divided by treatment - in the anthracycline-based 83 (64.8%), in trastuzumab- only 13 (10.2%), and in the mixed anthracycline/trastuzumab group 32 individuals (25%), respectively. Mild symptomatic CTRCD was revealed and treated in 2 (1.6%) participants, and a mild asymptomatic variant in 26 (20.5%). Mild asymptomatic conditions are defined as left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≥50% and further relative reduction in GLS by >15% from baseline and/or a further rise in cardiac biomarkers. The listed biomarkers were assessed longitudinally in repeated-measures linear regression models during 12 months of observation. The associations between changes in biomarkers and CTRCD and between changes in biomarkers and LVEF were evaluated. Analysis by risk groups revealed statistically significant differences in baseline LVEF scores (p 0.001), BNP (p 0.0075), and Gal-3 (p 0.0073). Treatment groups found no statistically significant differences at baseline. After 12 months of follow-up, only LVEF values showed a statistically significant difference by risk groups (p 0.0011). When assessing the temporal changes in the studied parameters for all treatment groups, there were statistically significant changes from visit to visit for LVEF (p 0.003); GLS (p 0.0001); BNP (p<0.00001); MPO (p<0.0001); and Gal-3 (p<0.0001). No moderate or strong correlations were found between the biomarkers values and LVEF, between biomarkers and GLS. Between the biomarkers themselves, a moderate, close to strong correlation was established between cTnI and D-dimer (r 0.65, p<0.05). The dose-dependent effect of anthracyclines has been confirmed: the summary dose has a moderate negative impact on GLS values: -r 0.31 for all treatment groups (p<0.05). The present study found myeloperoxidase as a promising biomarker of cardiac dysfunction in the mixed anthracycline/trastuzumab treatment group. The hazard of CTRCD increased by 24% (HR 1.21; 95% CI 1.01;1.73) per doubling in baseline MPO value (p 0.041). Increases in BNP were also associated with CTRCD (HR per doubling, 1.22; 95% CI 1.12;1.69). No cases of chemotherapy discontinuation due to cardiotoxic complications have been recorded. Further observations are needed to gain insight into the ability of biomarkers to predict CTRCD onset.

Keywords: breast cancer, chemotherapy, cardiotoxicity, Kazakhstan

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4823 Business Survival During Economic Crises: A Comparison Between Family and Non-family Firms

Authors: A. Hayrapetyan, A. Simon, P. Marques, G. Renart

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Business survival is a question of greatest interest for any economy. Firm characteristics that can explain or predict performance and, ultimately, business survival become of the greatest significance, as the sustainable longevity of any business can mean health for the future of the country. Family Firms (FFs) are one of the most ubiquitous forms of business worldwide, as more than half of European firms (60%) are considered as family firms. Therefore, the inherent characteristics of FFs are one of the possible explanatory variables for firm survival because FFs have strategic goals that differentiate them from other types of businesses. Although there is literature on the performance of FFs across generations, there are fewer studies on the factors that impact the survival of family and non-family FFs, as there is a lack of data on failed firms. To address this gap, this paper explores the differential survival of family firms versus non-family firms with a representative sample of companies of the region of Catalonia (Northeast of Spain) that were adhoc classified as family or nonfamily firms, as well as classified as failed or surviving, since no census data for family firms or for failed firms is available in Spain. By using the COX regression model on a representative sample of 629 family and non-family firms, this study investigates to what extent financial ratios, such as Liquidity, Solvency Rate can impact business survival, taking into consideration the socioemotional side of family firms, as well as revealing the differences between family and non-family firms. The findings show that the liquidity rate is significant for non-family firm survival, whereas not for family firms. On the other hand, FFs can benefit while having a higher solvency rate. Ultimately, this paper discovers that FFs increase their chances of survival when they are small, as the growth in size starts negatively impacting the socioemotional objectives of the firm. This study proves the existence of significant differences between family and non-family firms’ survival during economic crises, suggesting that the prioritization of emotional wealth creates distinct conditions for both types of firms.

Keywords: COX regression, economy crises, family firm, non-family firm, survival

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4822 Low SPOP Expression and High MDM2 expression Are Associated with Tumor Progression and Predict Poor Prognosis in Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Authors: Chang Liang, Weizhi Gong, Yan Zhang

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Purpose: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a malignant tumor with a high mortality rate and poor prognosis worldwide. Murine double minute 2 (MDM2) regulates the tumor suppressor p53, increasing cancer risk and accelerating tumor progression. Speckle-type POX virus and zinc finger protein (SPOP), a key of subunit of Cullin-Ring E3 ligase, inhibits tumor genesis and progression by the ubiquitination of its downstream substrates. This study aimed to clarify whether SPOP and MDM2 are mutually regulated in HCC and the correlation between SPOP and MDM2 and the prognosis of HCC patients. Methods: First, the expression of SPOP and MDM2 in HCC tissues were detected by TCGA database. Then, 53 paired samples of HCC tumor and adjacent tissues were collected to evaluate the expression of SPOP and MDM2 using immunohistochemistry. Chi-square test or Fisher’s exact test were used to analyze the relationship between clinicopathological features and the expression levels of SPOP and MDM2. In addition, Kaplan‒Meier curve analysis and log-rank test were used to investigate the effects of SPOP and MDM2 on the survival of HCC patients. Last, the Multivariate Cox proportional risk regression model analyzed whether the different expression levels of SPOP and MDM2 were independent risk factors for the prognosis of HCC patients. Results: Bioinformatics analysis revealed the low expression of SPOP and high expression of MDM2 were related to worse prognosis of HCC patients. The relationship between the expression of SPOP and MDM2 and tumor stem-like features showed an opposite trend. The immunohistochemistry showed the expression of SPOP protein was significantly downregulated while MDM2 protein significantly upregulated in HCC tissue compared to that in para-cancerous tissue. Tumors with low SPOP expression were related to worse T stage and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage, but tumors with high MDM2 expression were related to worse T stage, M stage, and BCLC stage. Kaplan–Meier curves showed HCC patients with high SPOP expression and low MDM2 expression had better survival than those with low SPOP expression and high MDM2 expression (P < 0.05). A multivariate Cox proportional risk regression model confirmed that a high MDM2 expression level was an independent risk factor for poor prognosis in HCC patients (P <0.05). Conclusion: The expression of SPOP protein was significantly downregulated, while the expression of MDM2 significantly upregulated in HCC. The low expression of SPOP and high expression. of MDM2 were associated with malignant progression and poor prognosis of HCC patients, indicating a potential therapeutic target for HCC patients.

Keywords: hepatocellular carcinoma, murine double minute 2, speckle-type POX virus and zinc finger protein, ubiquitination

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4821 Geostatistical Analysis of Contamination of Soils in an Urban Area in Ghana

Authors: S. K. Appiah, E. N. Aidoo, D. Asamoah Owusu, M. W. Nuonabuor

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Urbanization remains one of the unique predominant factors which is linked to the destruction of urban environment and its associated cases of soil contamination by heavy metals through the natural and anthropogenic activities. These activities are important sources of toxic heavy metals such as arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), and lead (Pb), nickel (Ni) and zinc (Zn). Often, these heavy metals lead to increased levels in some areas due to the impact of atmospheric deposition caused by their proximity to industrial plants or the indiscriminately burning of substances. Information gathered on potentially hazardous levels of these heavy metals in soils leads to establish serious health and urban agriculture implications. However, characterization of spatial variations of soil contamination by heavy metals in Ghana is limited. Kumasi is a Metropolitan city in Ghana, West Africa and is challenged with the recent spate of deteriorating soil quality due to rapid economic development and other human activities such as “Galamsey”, illegal mining operations within the metropolis. The paper seeks to use both univariate and multivariate geostatistical techniques to assess the spatial distribution of heavy metals in soils and the potential risk associated with ingestion of sources of soil contamination in the Metropolis. Geostatistical tools have the ability to detect changes in correlation structure and how a good knowledge of the study area can help to explain the different scales of variation detected. To achieve this task, point referenced data on heavy metals measured from topsoil samples in a previous study, were collected at various locations. Linear models of regionalisation and coregionalisation were fitted to all experimental semivariograms to describe the spatial dependence between the topsoil heavy metals at different spatial scales, which led to ordinary kriging and cokriging at unsampled locations and production of risk maps of soil contamination by these heavy metals. Results obtained from both the univariate and multivariate semivariogram models showed strong spatial dependence with range of autocorrelations ranging from 100 to 300 meters. The risk maps produced show strong spatial heterogeneity for almost all the soil heavy metals with extremely risk of contamination found close to areas with commercial and industrial activities. Hence, ongoing pollution interventions should be geared towards these highly risk areas for efficient management of soil contamination to avert further pollution in the metropolis.

Keywords: coregionalization, heavy metals, multivariate geostatistical analysis, soil contamination, spatial distribution

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4820 Population Growth of Bracon hebetor Say. under the Influence of Various Lepidopteran Host

Authors: Mohammad Muslim, M. Shafiq Ansari, Fazil Hasan

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Bracon hebetor Say (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) is considered as a highly cosmopolitan ecto-parasitoid of various species of order Lepidoptera. To study the influence of lepidopteran hosts on population growth of B. hebetor, the newly mated gravid females were released on various host and the eggs laid by such females on respective host were counted and a single egg was allow to develop on single host larvae. The experiment was conducted at 27 ± 1°C, 65 ± 5% RH and 14L: 10D hr in Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD) chamber. Upon hatching the tiny larvae of parasitoid pierced the body of insect host, enter into them and consumed the internal body contents of paralyzed host larvae. Present findings showed that B. hebetor took ~36 days to complete its survivorship on Corcyra cephalonica and Galleria mellonella. However, on Spodoptera littoralis the survivorship decreased to 24 days. Nevertheless, development of H. hebetor’s immature was significantly prolonged on S. littoralis and S. litura compared to other insect hosts tested. Female of B. hebetor took longer time to lay eggs on C. cephalonica and G. mellonella than other hosts tested in this study. Longevity of male and female is significantly prolonged on C. cephalonica and G. mellonella compared to others insect hosts tested. Population growth parameters like mx Ro, rm, Tc, and τ was considerably highest on C. cephalonica and lowest on S. littoralis. Based on the demographic studies C. cephalonica and H. armegera were proved to be the most suitable host for the mass rearing of B. hebetor. Nevertheless, results of present investigation could be utilized to improve the mass-breeding program of B. hebetor, so that sufficient number of B. hebetor’s adults could be provided time to time for the effective control of lepidopteran pests of various economically important crops.

Keywords: Bracon hebetor, lepidopteran hosts, demography, biology, development

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4819 Vision Zero for the Caribbean Using the Systemic Approach for Road Safety: A Case Study Analyzing Jamaican Road Crash Data (Ongoing)

Authors: Rachelle McFarlane

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The Second Decade of Action Road Safety has begun with increased focus on countries who are disproportionately affected by road fatalities. Researchers highlight the low effectiveness of road safety campaigns in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) still reporting approximately 130,000 deaths and six million injuries annually. The regional fatality rate 19.2 per 100,000 with heightened concern for persons 15 to 44 years. In 2021, 483 Jamaicans died in 435 crashes, with 33% of these fatalities occurring during Covid-19 curfew hours. The study objective is to conduct a systemic safety review of Jamaican road crashes and provide a framework for its use in complementing traditional methods. The methodology involves the use of the FHWA Systemic Safety Project Selection Tool for analysis. This tool reviews systemwide data in order to identify risk factors across the network associated with severe and fatal crashes, rather that only hotspots. A total of 10,379 crashes with 745 fatalities and serious injuries were reviewed. Of the focus crash types listed, 50% of ‘Pedestrian Accidents’ resulted in fatalities and serious injuries, followed by 32% ‘Bicycle’, 24% ‘Single’ and 12% of ‘Head-on’. This study seeks to understand the associated risk factors with these priority crash types across the network and recommend cost-effective countermeasures across common sites. As we press towards Vision Zero, the inclusion of the systemic safety review method, complementing traditional methods, may create a wider impact in reducing road fatalities and serious injury by targeting issues across network with similarities; focus crash types and contributing factors.

Keywords: systemic safety review, risk factors, road crashes, crash types

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4818 On-line Control of the Natural and Anthropogenic Safety in Krasnoyarsk Region

Authors: T. Penkova, A. Korobko, V. Nicheporchuk, L. Nozhenkova, A. Metus

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This paper presents an approach of on-line control of the state of technosphere and environment objects based on the integration of Data Warehouse, OLAP and Expert systems technologies. It looks at the structure and content of data warehouse that provides consolidation and storage of monitoring data. There is a description of OLAP-models that provide a multidimensional analysis of monitoring data and dynamic analysis of principal parameters of controlled objects. The authors suggest some criteria of emergency risk assessment using expert knowledge about danger levels. It is demonstrated now some of the proposed solutions could be adopted in territorial decision making support systems. Operational control allows authorities to detect threat, prevent natural and anthropogenic emergencies and ensure a comprehensive safety of territory.

Keywords: decision making support systems, emergency risk assessment, natural and anthropogenic safety, on-line control, territory

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4817 Bank Liquidity Creation in a Dual Banking System: An Empirical Investigation

Authors: Lianne M. Q. Lee, Mohammed Sharaf Shaiban

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The importance of bank liquidity management took center stage as policy makers promoted a more resilient global banking system after the market turmoil of 2007. The growing recognition of Islamic banks’ function of intermediating funds in the economy warrants the need to investigate its balance sheet structure which is distinct from its conventional counterparts. Given that asymmetric risk, transformation is inevitable; Islamic banks need to identify the liquidity risk within their distinctive balance sheet structure. Thus, there is a strong need to quantify and assess the liquidity position to ensure proper functioning of a financial institution. It is vital to measure bank liquidity because liquid banks face less liquidity risk. We examine this issue by using two alternative quantitative measures of liquidity creation “cat fat” and “cat nonfat” constructed by Berger and Bouwman (2009). “Cat fat” measures all on balance sheet items including off balance sheet, whilst the latter measures only on balance sheet items. Liquidity creation is measured over the period 2007-2014 in 14 countries where Islamic and conventional commercial banks coexist. Also, separately by bank size class as empirical studies have shown that liquidity creation varies by bank size. An interesting and important finding shows that all size class of Islamic banks, on average have increased creation of aggregate liquidity in real dollar terms over the years for both liquidity creation measures especially for large banks indicating that Islamic banks actually generates more liquidity to the economy compared to its conventional counterparts, including from off-balance sheet items. The liquidity creation for off-balance sheets by conventional banks may have been affected by the global financial crisis when derivatives markets were severely hit. The results also suggest that Islamic banks have the higher volume of assets and deposits and that borrowing/issues of bonds are less in Islamic banks compared to conventional banks because most products are interest-based. As Islamic banks appear to create more liquidity than conventional banks under both measures, it translates that the development of Islamic banking is significant over the decades since its inception. This finding is encouraging as, despite Islamic banking’s overall size, it represents growth opportunities for these countries.

Keywords: financial institution, liquidity creation, liquidity risk, policy and regulation

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4816 Risk and Emotion: Measuring the Effect of Emotion and Other Visceral Factors on Decision Making under Risk

Authors: Michael Mihalicz, Aziz Guergachi

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Background: The science of modelling choice preferences has evolved over centuries into an interdisciplinary field contributing to several branches of Microeconomics and Mathematical Psychology. Early theories in Decision Science rested on the logic of rationality, but as it and related fields matured, descriptive theories emerged capable of explaining systematic violations of rationality through cognitive mechanisms underlying the thought processes that guide human behaviour. Cognitive limitations are not, however, solely responsible for systematic deviations from rationality and many are now exploring the effect of visceral factors as the more dominant drivers. The current study builds on the existing literature by exploring sleep deprivation, thermal comfort, stress, hunger, fear, anger and sadness as moderators to three distinct elements that define individual risk preference under Cumulative Prospect Theory. Methodology: This study is designed to compare the risk preference of participants experiencing an elevated affective or visceral state to those in a neutral state using nonparametric elicitation methods across three domains. Two experiments will be conducted simultaneously using different methodologies. The first will determine visceral states and risk preferences randomly over a two-week period by prompting participants to complete an online survey remotely. In each round of questions, participants will be asked to self-assess their current state using Visual Analogue Scales before answering a series of lottery-style elicitation questions. The second experiment will be conducted in a laboratory setting using psychological primes to induce a desired state. In this experiment, emotional states will be recorded using emotion analytics and used a basis for comparison between the two methods. Significance: The expected results include a series of measurable and systematic effects on the subjective interpretations of gamble attributes and evidence supporting the proposition that a portion of the variability in human choice preferences unaccounted for by cognitive limitations can be explained by interacting visceral states. Significant results will promote awareness about the subconscious effect that emotions and other drive states have on the way people process and interpret information, and can guide more effective decision making by informing decision-makers of the sources and consequences of irrational behaviour.

Keywords: decision making, emotions, prospect theory, visceral factors

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4815 Evaluation of Associated Risk Factors and Determinants of near Miss Obstetric Cases at B.P. Koirala Institute of Health Sciences, Dharan

Authors: Madan Khadka, Dhruba Uprety, Rubina Rai

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Background and objective: In 2011, around 273,465 women died worldwide during pregnancy, childbirth or within 42 days after childbirth. Near-miss is recognized as the predictor of the level of care and maternal death. The objective of the study was to evaluate the associated risk factors of near-miss obstetric cases and maternal death. Material and Methods A Prospective Observational Study was done from August 1, 2014, to June 30, 2015, in Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology at BPKIHS hospital, tertiary care hospital in Eastern Nepal, Dharan. Case eligible by the 5-factor scoring system and WHO near miss criteria were evaluated. Risk factors included severe hemorrhage, hypertensive disorders, and a complication of abortion, ruptured uterus, medical/surgical condition and sepsis. Results: A total of 9,727 delivery were attended during the study period from August 2014 to June 2014. There were 6307 (71.5%) vaginal delivery and 2777(28.5%) caesarean section and 181 perinatal death with a total of 9,546 live birth. A total of 162 near miss was identified, and 16 maternal death occurred during the study. Maternal near miss rate of 16.6 per 1000 live birth, Women with life-threatening conditions (WLTC) of 172, Severe maternal outcome ratio of 18.64 per 1000 live birth, Maternal near-miss mortality ratio (MNM: 1 MD) 10.1:1, Mortality index (MI) of 8.98%. Risk factors were obstetric hemorrhage 27.8%, abortion/ectopic 27.2%, eclampsia 16%, medical/surgical condition 14.8%, sepsis 13.6%, severe preeclamsia 11.1%, ruptured uterus 3.1%, and molar pregnancy 1.9%. 19.75% were prim gravidae, with mean age 25.66 yrs, and cardiovascular and coagulation dysfunction as a major life threatening condition and sepsis (25%) was the major cause of mortality. Conclusion: Hemorrhage and hypertensive disorders are the leading causes of near miss event and sepsis as a leading cause of mortality. As near miss analysis indicates the quality of health care, it is worth presenting in national indices.

Keywords: abortion, eclampsia, hemorrhage, maternal mortility, near miss

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4814 Investigation of Leptospira Infection in Stray Animals in Thailand: Leptospirosis Risk Reduction in Human

Authors: Ruttayaporn Ngasaman, Saowakon Indouang, Usa Chethanond

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Leptospirosis is a public health concern zoonosis in Thailand. Human and animals are often infected by contact with contaminated water. The infected animals play an important role in leptospira infection for both human and other hosts via urine. In humans, it can cause a wide range of symptoms, some of which may present mild flu-like symptoms including fever, vomiting, and jaundice. Without treatment, Leptospirosis can lead to kidney damage, meningitis, liver failure, respiratory distress, and even death. The prevalence of leptospirosis in stray animals in Thailand is unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate leptospira infection in stray animals including dogs and cats in Songkhla province, Thailand. Total of 434 blood samples were collected from 370 stray dogs and 64 stray cats during the population control program from 2014 to 2018. Screening test using latex agglutination for the detection of antibodies against Leptospira interrogans in serum samples shows 29.26% (127/434) positive. There were 120 positive samples of stray dogs and 7 positive samples of stray cats. Detection by polymerase chain reaction specific to LipL32 gene of Leptospira interrogans showed 1.61% (7/434) positive. Stray cats (5/64) show higher prevalence than stray dogs (2/370). Although active infection was low detected, but seroprevalence was high. This result indicated that stray animals were not active infection during sample collection but they use to get infected or in a latent period of infection. They may act as a reservoir for domestic animals and human in which stay in the same environment. In order to prevent and reduce the risk of leptospira infection in a human, stray animals should be done health checking, vaccination, and disease treatment.

Keywords: leptospirosis, stray animals, risk reduction, Thailand

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4813 The Effect of the Epstein-Barr Virus on the Development of Multiple Sclerosis

Authors: Sina Mahdavi

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Background and Objective: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is the most common inflammatory autoimmune disease of the central nervous system (CNS) that affects the myelination process in the CNS. Complex interactions of various "environmental or infectious" factors may act as triggers in autoimmunity and disease progression. The association between viral infections, especially Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) and MS, is one potential cause that is not well understood. In this study, we aim to summarize the available data on EBV infection in MS disease progression. Materials and Methods: For this study, the keywords "Multiple sclerosis," "Epstein-Barr virus," and "central nervous system" in the databases PubMed, Google Scholar, Sid, and MagIran between 2016 and 2022 were searched, and 14 articles were chosen, studied, and analyzed. Results: Demyelinated lesions isolated from MS patients contain EBNAs from EBV proteins. The EBNA1 domain contains a pentapeptide fragment identical to B-crystallin, a heat shock peptide, that is increased in peripheral B cells in response to B-crystallin infection, resulting in myelin-directed autoimmunity mediated by proinflammatory T cells. EBNA2, which is involved in the regulation of viral transcription, may enhance transcription from MS risk loci. A 7-fold increase in the risk of MS has been observed in EBV infection with HLA-DR15 synergy. Conclusion: EBV infection along with a variety of specific genetic risk alleles, cause inflammatory cascades in the CNS by infected B cells. There is a high expression of EBV during the course of MS, which indicates the relationship between EBV and MS, that this virus can play a role in the development of MS by creating an inflammatory state. Therefore, measures to modulate the expression of EBV may be effective in reducing inflammatory processes in demyelinated areas of MS patients.

Keywords: multiple sclerosis, Epstein-Barr virus, central nervous system, EBNAs

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4812 An Audit of Restaging Transurethral Resection of Bladder Tumor (Re-TURBT) Quality in a District General Hospital

Authors: Rizwan Iqbal

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Introduction: Re-TURBT has been recommended by international guidelines for patients with non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) who are deemed high-risk. Indications for re-TURBTs remain controversial and studies show mixed outcomes. It should be performed when the initial TURBT specimen lacks detrusor muscle, has tumor stage pT1 or G3/high-grade, or where resection is deemed incomplete. This ensures complete resection of tumors that have a high risk of recurrence as well as accurately identifying any tumors which have been upstaged. The aim of this audit was to evaluate the quality of re-TURBTs in a district general hospital. Method: Data were retrospectively collected from 31 patients who had re-TURBTs between April 2021 and September 2022. Data included baseline demographics, time from initial to re-TURBT, quality of operation note, presence of residual tumor, complications, and administration of chemotherapy within 24 hours of the initial TURBT. Data collection remains ongoing at the time of writing. Results: The mean age was 76 years old and 71.0% of patients were male. 32.3% of patients had their re-TURBT within six weeks and 32.3% had intravesical chemotherapy administered within 24 hours of the initial TURBT. 74.2% of initial TURBTs had detrusor muscle present in the specimen. 48.4% of patients had residual disease following re-TURBT. Just one patient had their pathology upstaged at re-TURBT. The use of the TURBT proforma on the operation note was variable, with 51.6% and 38.7% of surgeons using the proforma after the initial and re-TURBT. Conclusion: Re-TURBT improves bladder cancer staging and is necessary in patients who are deemed high-risk in order to identify any upstaging or recurrence of the disease.

Keywords: urology, bladder cancer, turbt, cancer

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4811 Modifying Cardiometabolic Disease Risk Factors in Urban Primary School Children: Three Different Exercise Interventions

Authors: Anneke Van Biljon

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Background: Exercise is a primary form of preventing and improving cardiometabolic disease risk factors; however specific exercise variables and their associated health benefits in children are inconclusive. A preliminary study revealed that different exercise variables may improve particular cardiometabolic health benefits. Objectives: This study further investigated the specific cardiometabolic health benefits associated with three isocaloric exercise interventions set at different intensities. Methods: Hundred-and-twenty (n = 120) participants between the ages of 10 – 14 years old were assigned to four different study groups 1. High intensity interval training (HIIT) at > 80% MHR 2. Moderate intensity continuous training (MICT) at 65% – 70% MHR 3. Alternative intensities (ALT) of HIIT and MICT 4. Control group. Exercise interventions were designed to generate isocaloric workloads of ~154.77 kcal per session, three times per week for five weeks. The one-way ANOVA test established comparisons between group means. Post hoc tests were calculated to determine specific group differences. Results: Although, all exercise groups improved cardiometabolic health, the MICT group showed greater improvements in fasting glucose (-9.30%), whereas cardiorespiratory fitness increased most by 31.33% (p = 0.000) within the HIIT group. Finally, ALT group recorded overall superior and additional cardiometabolic health benefits compared with both MICT and HIIT groups. Conclusion: The findings of this study indicate that superior benefits may be elicited when combining and alternating MICT and HIIT. These results provide specific exercise recommendations for achieving optimal and substantial cardiometabolic health benefits in children which will contribute towards achieving the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 2030.

Keywords: cardiometabolic disease risk factors, exercise, pediatrics, interventions

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4810 Botnet Detection with ML Techniques by Using the BoT-IoT Dataset

Authors: Adnan Baig, Ishteeaq Naeem, Saad Mansoor

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The Internet of Things (IoT) gadgets have advanced quickly in recent years, and their use is steadily rising daily. However, cyber-attackers can target these gadgets due to their distributed nature. Additionally, many IoT devices have significant security flaws in their implementation and design, making them vulnerable to security threats. Hence, these threats can cause important data security and privacy loss from a single attack on network devices or systems. Botnets are a significant security risk that can harm the IoT network; hence, sophisticated techniques are required to mitigate the risk. This work uses a machine learning-based method to identify IoT orchestrated by botnets. The proposed technique identifies the net attack by distinguishing between legitimate and malicious traffic. This article proposes a hyperparameter tuning model to improvise the method to improve the accuracy of existing processes. The results demonstrated an improved and more accurate indication of botnet-based cyber-attacks.

Keywords: Internet of Things, Botnet, BoT-IoT dataset, ML techniques

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