Search results for: consumer decision making

Authors: Rodrigo Zeidan

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The paper identifies failures of decision making and corporate governance that allow non-financial companies around the world to develop hedging strategies that lead to hefty losses in the aftermath of the financial crisis. The sample is comprised of 346 companies from 10 international markets, of which 49 companies (and a subsample of 13 distressed companies) lose a combined US$18.9 billion. An event study shows that most companies that present losses in derivatives experience negative abnormal returns, including a number of companies in which the effect is persistent after a year. The results of a probit model indicate that the lack of a formal hedging policy, no monitoring to the CFOs, and considerations of hubris and remuneration contribute to the mismanagement of hedging policies.

Keywords: risk management, hedging, derivatives, monitoring, corporate governance structure, event study, hubris

Procedia PDF Downloads 438

Authors: Sanghoon Shim, Jaehwan Jung, Sung-Ah Kim

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As the digital technology develops, studies on the TUI (Tangible User Interface) that links the physical environment utilizing the human senses with the virtual environment through the computer are actively being conducted. In addition, there has been a tremendous advance in computer design making through the use of computer-aided design techniques, which enable optimized decision-making through comparison with machine learning and parallel comparison of alternatives. However, a complex design that can respond to user requirements or performance can emerge through the intuition of the designer, but it is difficult to actualize the emerged design by the designer's ability alone. Ancillary tools such as Gaudí's Sandbag can be an instrument to reinforce and evolve emerged ideas from designers. With the advent of many commercial tools that support 3D objects, designers' intentions are easily reflected in their designs, but the degree of their reflection reflects their intentions according to the proficiency of design tools. This study embodies the environment in which the form can be implemented by the fingers of the most basic designer in the initial design phase of the complex type building design. Leapmotion is used as a sensor to recognize the hand motions of the designer, and it is converted into digital information to realize an environment that can be linked in real time in virtual reality (VR). In addition, the implemented design can be linked with Rhino™, a 3D authoring tool, and its plug-in Grasshopper™ in real time. As a result, it is possible to design sensibly using TUI, and it can serve as a tool for assisting designer intuition.

Keywords: design environment, digital modeling, hand gesture, TUI, virtual reality

Procedia PDF Downloads 363

Authors: Bolawole F. Ogunbodede, Mokolade Johnson, Adetunji Adejumo

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High population growth rate, reactive infrastructure provision, inability of physical planning to cope with developmental pace are responsible for waste water crisis in the Lagos Metropolis. Septic tank is still the most prevalent waste-water holding system. Unfortunately, there is a dearth of septage treatment infrastructure. Public waste-water treatment system statistics relative to the 23 million people in Lagos State is worrisome. 1.85 billion Cubic meters of wastewater is generated on daily basis and only 5% of the 26 million population is connected to public sewerage system. This is compounded by inadequate budgetary allocation and erratic power supply in the last two decades. This paper explored community participatory waste-water management alternative at Oworonshoki Municipality in Lagos. The study is underpinned by decentralized Waste-water Management systems in built-up areas. The initiative accommodates 5 step waste-water issue including generation, storage, collection, processing and disposal through participatory decision making in two Oworonshoki Community Development Association (CDA) areas. Drone assisted mapping highlighted building footage. Structured interviews and focused group discussion of land lord associations in the CDA areas provided collaborator platform for decision-making. Water stagnation in primary open drainage channels and natural retention ponds in framing wetlands is traceable to frequent of climate change induced tidal influences in recent decades. Rise in water table resulting in septic-tank leakage and water pollution is reported to be responsible for the increase in the water born infirmities documented in primary health centers. This is in addition to unhealthy dumping of solid wastes in the drainage channels. The effect of uncontrolled disposal system renders surface waters and underground water systems unsafe for human and recreational use; destroys biotic life; and poisons the fragile sand barrier-lagoon urban ecosystems. Cluster decentralized system was conceptualized to service 255 households. Stakeholders agreed on public-private partnership initiative for efficient wastewater service delivery.

Keywords: health, infrastructure, management, septage, well-being

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Authors: Charles Davidson

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This paper presents the Stoplight Analysis System of Partnering Organizations Readiness, offering a structured framework to evaluate conflict resolution collaboration feasibility, especially crucial in conflict areas, employing a colour-coded approach and specific assessment points, with implications for more informed decision-making and improved outcomes in peacebuilding initiatives. Derived from at total of 40 years of practical peacebuilding experience from the project’s two researchers as well as interviews of various other peacebuilding actors, this paper introduces the Stoplight Analysis System of Partnering Organizations Readiness, a comprehensive framework designed to facilitate effective collaboration in international/local peacebuilding partnerships by evaluating the readiness of both potential partner organisations and the location of the proposed project. ^The system employs a colour-coded approach, categorising potential partnerships into three distinct indicators: Red (no-go), Yellow (requires further research), and Green (promising, go ahead). Within each category, specific points are identified for assessment, guiding decision-makers in evaluating the feasibility and potential success of collaboration. The Red category signals significant barriers, prompting an immediate stoppage in the consideration of partnership. The Yellow category encourages deeper investigation to determine whether potential issues can be mitigated, while the Green category signifies organisations deemed ready for collaboration. This systematic and structured approach empowers decision-makers to make informed choices, enhancing the likelihood of successful and mutually beneficial partnerships. Methodologically, this paper utilised interviews from peacebuilders from around the globe, scholarly research of extant strategies, and a collaborative review of programming from the project’s two authors from their own time in the field. This method as a formalised model has been employed for the past two years across a litany of partnership considerations, and has been adjusted according to its field experimentation. This research holds significant importance in the field of conflict resolution as it provides a systematic and structured approach to peacebuilding partnership evaluation. In conflict-affected regions, where the dynamics are complex and challenging, the Stoplight Analysis System offers decision-makers a practical tool to assess the readiness of partnering organisations. This approach can enhance the efficiency of conflict resolution efforts by ensuring that resources are directed towards partnerships with a higher likelihood of success, ultimately contributing to more effective and sustainable peacebuilding outcomes.

Keywords: collaboration, conflict resolution, partnerships, peacebuilding

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Authors: Oluwaponmile D. Alao

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In this paper, two models have been developed to ascertain the best network needed for diagnosis of breast cancer. Breast cancer has been a disease that required the attention of the medical practitioner. Experience has shown that misdiagnose of the disease has been a major challenge in the medical field. Therefore, designing a system with adequate performance for will help in making diagnosis of the disease faster and accurate. In this paper, two models: backpropagation neural network and support vector machine has been developed. The performance obtained is also compared with other previously obtained algorithms to ascertain the best algorithms.

Keywords: breast cancer, data mining, neural network, support vector machine

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Authors: Yakubu Suleiman, S. A. Musa

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The research was conducted to determine the physical characteristics of banana fruits that influenced consumer preferences for the fruit in Northern Nigeria. Socio-economic characteristics of the respondents were also identified. Simple descriptive statistics and Hedonic prices model were used to analyze the data collected for socio-economic and consumer preference respectively with the aid of 1000 structured questionnaires. The result revealed the value of R2 to be 0.633, meaning that, 63.3% of the variation in the banana price was brought about by the explanatory variables included in the model and the variables are: colour, size, degree of ripeness, softness, surface blemish, cleanliness of the fruits, weight, length, and cluster size of fruits. However, the remaining 36.7% could be attributed to the error term or random disturbance in the model. It could also be seen from the calculated result that the intercept was 1886.5 and was statistically significant (P < 0.01), meaning that about N1886.5 worth of banana fruits could be bought by consumers without considering the variables of banana included in the model. Moreover, consumers showed that they have significant preference for colours, size, degree of ripeness, softness, weight, length and cluster size of banana fruits and they were tested to be significant at either P < 0.01, P < 0.05, and P < 0.1 . Moreover, the result also shows that consumers did not show significance preferences to surface blemish, cleanliness and variety of the banana fruit as all of them showed non-significance level with negative signs. Based on the findings of the research, it is hereby recommended that plant breeders and research institutes should concentrate on the production of banana fruits that have those physical characteristics that were found to be statistically significance like cluster size, degree of ripeness,’ softness, length, size, and skin colour.

Keywords: analysis, consumers, preference, variables

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Authors: Norezzine Abdelaziz, Rebouh Nazih Yacer, Kezimana Parfait, Parpura D. I., Gadzhikurbanov A., Anastasios Dranidis

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The genetic variation of Shvicezebuvides cattle from three different farms in the Tajikistan Republic was studied using 10 microsatellite markers (SSR). The trials were laid out using a multi- locus analysis system for the analysis of cattle microsatellite locus. An estimated genetic variability of the examined livestock is given in the article. The results of our SSR analysis as well as the numbers and frequencies of common alleles in studied samples, we established a high genetic similarity of studied samples. These results can also be furthermore useful in the decision making for preservation and rational genetic resources usage of the Tajik Shvicezebuvides cattle.

Keywords: genetic characteristic, frequencies of the occurrence alleles, microsatellite markers, Swiss cattle

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Authors: Bronwen Wade

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Over the last half-century, child welfare systems have increasingly relied on quantitative risk assessment tools, such as actuarial or predictive risk tools. These tools are developed by performing statistical analysis of how attributes captured in administrative data are related to future child maltreatment. Some scholars argue that attributes in administrative data can serve as proxies for race and that quantitative risk assessment tools reify racial bias in decision-making. Others argue that these tools provide more “objective” and “scientific” guides for decision-making instead of subjective social worker judgment. This study performs a systematic review of the literature on the impact of quantitative risk assessment tools on racial disproportionality; it examines methodological biases in work on this topic, summarizes key findings, and provides suggestions for further work. A search of CINAHL, PsychInfo, Proquest Social Science Premium Collection, and the ProQuest Dissertations and Theses Collection was performed. Academic and grey literature were included. The review includes studies that use quasi-experimental methods and development, validation, or re-validation studies of quantitative risk assessment tools. PROBAST (Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool) and CHARMS (CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies) were used to assess the risk of bias and guide data extraction for risk development, validation, or re-validation studies. ROBINS-I (Risk of Bias in Non-Randomized Studies of Interventions) was used to assess for bias and guide data extraction for the quasi-experimental studies identified. Due to heterogeneity among papers, a meta-analysis was not feasible, and a narrative synthesis was conducted. 11 papers met the eligibility criteria, and each has an overall high risk of bias based on the PROBAST and ROBINS-I assessments. This is deeply concerning, as major policy decisions have been made based on a limited number of studies with a high risk of bias. The findings on racial disproportionality have been mixed and depend on the tool and approach used. Authors use various definitions for racial equity, fairness, or disproportionality. These concepts of statistical fairness are connected to theories about the reason for racial disproportionality in child welfare or social definitions of fairness that are usually not stated explicitly. Most findings from these studies are unreliable, given the high degree of bias. However, some of the less biased measures within studies suggest that quantitative risk assessment tools may worsen racial disproportionality, depending on how disproportionality is mathematically defined. Authors vary widely in their approach to defining and addressing racial disproportionality within studies, making it difficult to generalize findings or approaches across studies. This review demonstrates the power of authors to shape policy or discourse around racial justice based on their choice of statistical methods; it also demonstrates the need for improved rigor and transparency in studies of quantitative risk assessment tools. Finally, this review raises concerns about the impact that these tools have on child welfare systems and racial disproportionality.

Keywords: actuarial risk, child welfare, predictive risk, racial disproportionality

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Authors: Magdi Elmessiry, Adel Elmessiry

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The fashion industry represents a significant portion of the global gross domestic product, however, it is plagued by cheap imitators that infringe on the trademarks which destroys the fashion industry's hard work and investment. While eventually the copycats would be found and stopped, the damage has already been done, sales are missed and direct and indirect jobs are lost. The infringer thrives on two main facts: the time it takes to discover them and the lack of tracking technologies that can help the consumer distinguish them. Blockchain technology is a new emerging technology that provides a distributed encrypted immutable and fault resistant ledger. Blockchain presents a ripe technology to resolve the infringement epidemic facing the fashion industry. The significance of the study is that a new approach leveraging the state of the art blockchain technology coupled with artificial intelligence is used to create a framework addressing the fashion infringement problem. It transforms the current focus on legal enforcement, which is difficult at best, to consumer awareness that is far more effective. The framework, Crypto CopyCat, creates an immutable digital asset representing the actual product to empower the customer with a near real time query system. This combination emphasizes the consumer's awareness and appreciation of the product's authenticity, while provides real time feedback to the producer regarding the fake replicas. The main findings of this study are that implementing this approach can delay the fake product penetration of the original product market, thus allowing the original product the time to take advantage of the market. The shift in the fake adoption results in reduced returns, which impedes the copycat market and moves the emphasis to the original product innovation.

Keywords: fashion, infringement, blockchain, artificial intelligence, textiles supply chain

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Authors: G. Erkomaishvili, M. Kobalava, T. Lazariashvili, M. Saghareishvili

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The article discusses the consumer market of agricultural products and agricultural policy in Georgia. It is noted that development of the strategic areas of the agricultural sector needs a special support. These strategic areas should create the country's major export potential. It is important to develop strategies to access to the international markets, form extensive marketing network etc., which will become the basis for the promotion and revenue growth of the country. The Georgian agricultural sector, with the right state policy and support, can achieve success and gain access to the world market with competitive agricultural products. The paper discusses the current condition of agriculture, export and import of agricultural products and agricultural policy in Georgia. The conducted research concludes the information that there is an increasing demand on the green goods in the world market. Natural and climatic conditions of Georgia give a serious possibility of implementing it. The research presents an agricultural development strategy in Georgia and the findings and based on them recommendations are proposed.

Keywords: agriculture, export-import of agricultural products, agricultural cooperative society, agricultural policy, agricultural insurance

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Authors: Nawaporn Thongnut

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The objective was to study the process and how to prepare the accounting of the Thai temples and to study the performance and quality in the accounting preparation of the temples in accordance with the regulation. The population was the accountants and individuals involved in the accounting preparation of 17 temples in the suburban Bangkok. The measurement used in this study was questionnaire. The statistics used in the analysis are the descriptive statistic. The data was presented in the form of percentage tables to describe the data on the demographic characteristics. The study found that temple wardens were responsible for the accounting and reporting of the temples. Abbots were to check the accuracy of the accounts in the monasteries. Mostly, there was no account auditing of the monasteries from the outside. The practice when receiving income for most of the monasteries had been keeping financial document in an orderly manner.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility, creating shared value, management accountant’s roles, stock exchange of Thailand

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Authors: Somayeh Nezami

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The management of financial and human resources of police in metropolitans requires many information and exact plans to reduce a rate of crime and increase the safety of the society. Geographical Information Systems have an important role in providing crime maps and their analysis. By using them and identification of crime hot spots along with spatial presentation of the results, it is possible to allocate optimum resources while presenting effective methods for decision making and preventive solutions. In this paper, we try to explain and compare between some of the methods of hot spots analysis such as Mode, Fuzzy Mode and Nearest Neighbour Hierarchical spatial clustering (NNH). Then the spots with the highest crime rates of drug smuggling for one province in Iran with borderline with Afghanistan are obtained. We will show that among these three methods NNH leads to the best result.

Keywords: GIS, Hot spots, nearest neighbor hierarchical spatial clustering, NNH, spatial analysis of crime

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Authors: S. Khakurel, R. P. Dhakal, T. Z. Yeow

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Downtime is one of the major sources (alongside damage and injury/death) of financial loss incurred by a structure in an earthquake. The length of downtime associated with a building after an earthquake varies depending on the time taken for the reaction (to the earthquake), decision (on the future course of action) and execution (of the decided course of action) phases. Post-earthquake assessment of buildings is a key step in the decision making process to decide the appropriate safety placarding as well as to decide whether a damaged building is to be repaired or demolished. The aim of the present study is to develop a model to quantify downtime associated with the post-earthquake building-assessment phase in terms of two parameters; i) duration of the different assessment phase; and ii) probability of different colour tagging. Post-earthquake assessment of buildings includes three stages; Level 1 Rapid Assessment including a fast external inspection shortly after the earthquake, Level 2 Rapid Assessment including a visit inside the building and Detailed Engineering Evaluation (if needed). In this study, the durations of all three assessment phases are first estimated from the total number of damaged buildings, total number of available engineers and the average time needed for assessing each building. Then, probability of different tag colours is computed from the 2010-11 Canterbury earthquake Sequence database. Finally, a downtime model for the post-earthquake building inspection phase is proposed based on the estimated phase length and probability of tag colours. This model is expected to be used for rapid estimation of seismic downtime within the Loss Optimisation Seismic Design (LOSD) framework.

Keywords: assessment, downtime, LOSD, Loss Optimisation Seismic Design, phase length, tag color

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Authors: Demet Ozgur-Unluakin, Busenur Turkali, Ayse Karacaorenli

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Maintenance strategies can be classified into two types, which are reactive and proactive, with respect to the time of the failure and maintenance. If the maintenance activity is done after a breakdown, it is called reactive maintenance. On the other hand, proactive maintenance, which is further divided as preventive and predictive, focuses on maintaining components before a failure occurs to prevent expensive halts. Recently, the number of interacting components in a system has increased rapidly and therefore, the structure of the systems have become more complex. This situation has made it difficult to provide the right maintenance decisions. Herewith, determining effective decisions has played a significant role. In multi-component systems, many methodologies and strategies can be applied when a component or a system has already broken down or when it is desired to identify and avoid proactively defects that could lead to future failure. This study focuses on the comparison of various maintenance strategies on a multi-component dynamic system. Components in the system are hidden, although there exists partial observability to the decision maker and they deteriorate in time. Several predefined policies under corrective, preventive and predictive maintenance strategies are considered to minimize the total maintenance cost in a planning horizon. The policies are simulated via Dynamic Bayesian Networks on a multi-component system with different policy parameters and cost scenarios, and their performances are evaluated. Results show that when the difference between the corrective and proactive maintenance cost is low, none of the proactive maintenance policies is significantly better than the corrective maintenance. However, when the difference is increased, at least one policy parameter for each proactive maintenance strategy gives significantly lower cost than the corrective maintenance.

Keywords: decision making, dynamic Bayesian networks, maintenance, multi-component systems, reliability

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Authors: Mohammad Rahmani Rezaiyeh, Mojtaba Rahmani Rezaiyeh, Mehrdad Rahmani Rezaiyeh

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Smart speed bump is a new invention and I am invented it. Smart speed bump is a system that can change the position of speed bumps either active or passive in necessary situations. The basic system of smart speed bumps is based on a robotic system which includes mechanic, electronic and artificial intelligence. The smart speed bump is capable of smart decision making and can change its position by anticipating the peak of terrific hours. It can be noted to the advantages of this system such as preventing the waste of petrol while crossing speed bumps, traffic management, accelerating, flowing and securing traffic, reducing accidents and judicial records.

Keywords: invention, smart, robotic system, speed bump, traffic, management

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Authors: D. Pinto, L. Castro, M. L. Cruzat, S. Barros, J. Gironás, C. Oberli, M. Torres, C. Escauriaza, A. Cipriano

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Flash floods, together with landslides, are a common natural threat for people living in mountainous regions and foothills. One way to deal with this constant menace is the use of Early Warning Systems, which have become a very important mitigation strategy for natural disasters. In this work, we present our proposal for a pilot Flash Flood Early Warning System for Santiago, Chile, the first stage of a more ambitious project that in a future stage shall also include early warning of landslides. To give a context for our approach, we first analyze three existing Flash Flood Early Warning Systems, focusing on their general architectures. We then present our proposed system, with main focus on the decision support system, a system that integrates empirical models and fuzzy expert systems to achieve reliable risk estimations.

Keywords: decision support systems, early warning systems, flash flood, natural hazard

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Authors: Udeh Nneka Evelyn

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The shortcomings of traditional costing system, in terms of validity, accuracy, consistency and relevance increased the need for modern management accounting system. ABC (Activity-Based Costing) can be used as a modern tool for planning, control and decision making for management. Past studies on activity-based costing (ABC) system have focused on manufacturing firms thereby making the studies on service firms scanty to some extent. This paper reviewed the application and relevance of activity-based costing techniques in service oriented business organisations by employing a qualitative research method which relied heavily on literature review of past and current relevant articles focusing on activity-based costing (ABC). Findings suggest that ABC is not only appropriate for use in a manufacturing environment; it is also most appropriate for service organizations such as financial institutions, the healthcare industry, and government organizations. In fact, some banking and financial institutions have been applying the concept for years under other names. One of them is unit costing, which is used to calculate the cost of banking services by determining the cost and consumption of each unit of output of functions required to deliver the service. ABC in very basic terms may provide very good payback for businesses. Some of the benefits that relate directly to the financial services industry are: Identification of the most profitable customers; more accurate product and service pricing; increase product profitability; well-organized process costs.

Keywords: profitability, activity-based costing (ABC), management accounting, manufacture

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Authors: Mehak Masood

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Education is critical for promoting sustainable development and improving the capacity of people to address environment and development issues. It is also critical for achieving environmental and ethical awareness, values and attitudes, skills and behaviour consistent with sustainable development and for effective public participation in decision-making. In this regard, The British Council Pakistan have conducted a need assessment study conducted during the training sessions with three different groups of educationists belonging to both government and public sectors on the topic of Climate Change and Environmental Education (CCEE). This study aims to review perceptions about climate change and environmental education and analyze its need and importance according to educationists of Pakistan.

Keywords: environmental education, climate change, resilience development, awareness

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Authors: Mohammad Safaeipour, Yousef Amer

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This study directs its focus on developing a conceptual model to offer a systematic and integrated method to weigh the related measures and evaluate a competence of hospitals and rank of the selected hospitals that involve and consider the stakeholders’ key performance indicators (KPI’s). The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) approach will use to weigh the dimensions and related sub- components. The weights and performance scores will combine by using the Technique for Order Performance by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and rank the selected hospitals. The results of this study provide interesting insight into the necessity of process improvement implementation in which hospital that received the lowest ranking score.

Keywords: performance measurement system, PMS, hospitals, AHP, TOPSIS

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Authors: Susmita Ghosh, Bhaskar Bhowmick

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Market is an important factor for start-ups to look into during decision-making in product development and related areas. Emerging country markets are more uncertain in terms of information availability and institutional supports. The literature review of market uncertainty reveals the need for identifying factors representing the market uncertainty. This paper identifies factors for market uncertainty using Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) and confirms the number of factor retention using an alternative factor retention criterion, ‘Parallel Analysis’. 500 entrepreneurs, engaged in start-ups from all over India participated in the study. This paper concludes with the factor structure of ‘market uncertainty’ having dimensions of uncertainty in industry orientation, uncertainty in customer orientation and uncertainty in marketing orientation.

Keywords: uncertainty, market, orientation, competitor, demand

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Authors: Yurii Bloshko, Oksana Olar

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This paper presents the analysis of 6 different classes of Petri nets: fuzzy Petri nets (FPN), generalized fuzzy Petri nets (GFPN), parameterized fuzzy Petri nets (PFPN), T2GFPN, flexible generalized fuzzy Petri nets (FGFPN), binary Petri nets (BPN). These classes were simulated in the special software PNeS® for the analysis of its pros and cons on the example of models which are dedicated to the decision-making process of passenger transport logistics. The paper includes the analysis of two approaches: when input values are filled with the experts’ knowledge; when fuzzy expectations represented by output values are added to the point. These approaches fulfill the possibilities of triples of functions which are replaced with different combinations of t-/s-norms.

Keywords: fuzzy petri net, intelligent computational techniques, knowledge representation, triangular norms

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Authors: Sarah O. Alhumoud, Mawaheb I. Altuwaijri, Tarfa M. Albuhairi, Wejdan M. Alohaideb

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Large-scale data stream analysis has become one of the important business and research priorities lately. Social networks like Twitter and other micro-blogging platforms hold an enormous amount of data that is large in volume, velocity and variety. Extracting valuable information and trends out of these data would aid in a better understanding and decision-making. Multiple analysis techniques are deployed for English content. Moreover, one of the languages that produce a large amount of data over social networks and is least analyzed is the Arabic language. The proposed paper is a survey on the research efforts to analyze the Arabic content in Twitter focusing on the tools and methods used to extract the sentiments for the Arabic content on Twitter.

Keywords: big data, social networks, sentiment analysis, twitter

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Authors: Ernesto A. Lagarda-Leyva, Manuel A. Valenzuela L., José G. Oshima C., Arnulfo A. Naranjo-Flores

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From August to December of 2016, a diagnostic and strategic planning study was carried out on the supply chain of the company Agropecuaria GABO S.A. de C.V. The final product of the study was the development of the strategic plan and a project portfolio to meet the demands of the three links in the supply chain of the Roma tomato exported annually to the United States of America. In this project, the strategic objective of ensuring the proper handling of the product was selected and one of the goals associated with this was the employment of quantitative methods to support decision making. Considering the antecedents, the objective of this case study was to develop a model to analyze the behavioral dynamics in the distribution chain, from the logistics of storage and shipment of Roma tomato in 81-case pallets (11.5 kg per case), to the two pre-cooling rooms and eventual loading onto transports, seeking to reduce the bottleneck and the associated costs by means of a dynamic interface. The methodology used was that of system dynamics, considering four phases that were adapted to the purpose of the study: 1) the conceptualization phase; 2) the formulation phase; 3) the evaluation phase; and 4) the communication phase. The main practical conclusions lead to the possibility of reducing both the bottlenecks in the cooling rooms and the costs by simulating scenarios and modifying certain policies. Furthermore, the creation of the dynamic interface between the model and the stakeholders was achieved by generating interaction with buttons and simple instructions that allow making modifications and observing diverse behaviors.

Keywords: agrilogistics, distribution, scenarios, system dynamics

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Authors: K. Allaw, J. Adjizian Gerard, M. Chehayeb, A. Raad, W. Fahs, A. Badran, A. Fakherdin, H. Madi, N. Badaro Saliba

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Population estimation using Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing faces many obstacles such as the determination of permanent residents. A permanent resident is an individual who stays and works during all four seasons in his village. So, all those who move towards other cities or villages are excluded from this category. The aim of this study is to identify the factors affecting the percentage of permanent residents in a village and to determine the attributed weight to each factor. To do so, six factors have been chosen (slope, precipitation, temperature, number of services, time to Central Business District (CBD) and the proximity to conflict zones) and each one of those factors has been evaluated using one of the following data: the contour lines map of 50 m, the precipitation map, four temperature maps and data collected through surveys. The weighting procedure has been done using decision tree method. As a result of this procedure, temperature (50.8%) and percentage of precipitation (46.5%) are the most influencing factors.

Keywords: remote sensing, GIS, permanent residence, decision tree, Lebanon

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Authors: Yingxiao Ye, Christopher Doehring, Angelos Georghiou, Hugh Robinson, Phebe Vayanos

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Human development is a threat to biodiversity, and conservation organizations (COs) are purchasing land to protect areas for biodiversity preservation. However, COs have limited budgets and thus face hard prioritization decisions that are confounded by uncertainty in future human land use. This research proposes a data-driven sequential planning model to help COs choose land parcels that minimize the uncertain human impact on biodiversity. The proposed model is robust to uncertain development, and the sequential decision-making process is adaptive, allowing land purchase decisions to adapt to human land use as it unfolds. The cellular automata model is leveraged to simulate land use development based on climate data, land characteristics, and development threat index from NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center. This simulation is used to model uncertainty in the problem. This research leverages state-of-the-art techniques in the robust optimization literature to propose a computationally tractable reformulation of the model, which can be solved routinely by off-the-shelf solvers like Gurobi or CPLEX. Numerical results based on real data from the Jaguar in Central and South America show that the proposed method reduces conservation loss by 19.46% on average compared to standard approaches such as MARXAN used in practice for biodiversity conservation. Our method may better help guide the decision process in land acquisition and thereby allow conservation organizations to maximize the impact of limited resources.

Keywords: data-driven robust optimization, biodiversity conservation, uncertainty simulation, adaptive sequential planning

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Authors: Yavuz Unal, Kemal Polat, H. Erdinc Kocer

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In this study, a decision support system comprising three stages has been proposed to detect the disc abnormalities of the lumbar region. In the first stage named the feature extraction, T2-weighted sagittal and axial Magnetic Resonance Images (MRI) were taken from 55 people and then 27 appearance and shape features were acquired from both sagittal and transverse images. In the second stage named the feature weighting process, k-means clustering based feature weighting (KMCBFW) proposed by Gunes et al. Finally, in the third stage named the classification process, the classifier algorithms including multi-layer perceptron (MLP- neural network), support vector machine (SVM), Naïve Bayes, and decision tree have been used to classify whether the subject has lumbar disc or not. In order to test the performance of the proposed method, the classification accuracy (%), sensitivity, specificity, precision, recall, f-measure, kappa value, and computation times have been used. The best hybrid model is the combination of k-means clustering based feature weighting and decision tree in the detecting of lumbar disc disease based on both sagittal and axial MR images.

Keywords: lumbar disc abnormality, lumbar MRI, lumbar spine, hybrid models, hybrid features, k-means clustering based feature weighting

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Authors: M. Shoukath Ali, Rajendra Prasad Singh

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Game Theory approaches and their application in improving the performance of Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) are discussed in this paper. The mathematical modeling and analysis of WSNs may have low success rate due to the complexity of topology, modeling, link quality, etc. However, Game Theory is a field, which can efficiently use to analyze the WSNs. Game Theory is related to applied mathematics that describes and analyzes interactive decision situations. Game theory has the ability to model independent, individual decision makers whose actions affect the surrounding decision makers. The outcome of complex interactions among rational entities can be predicted by a set of analytical tools. However, the rationality demands a stringent observance to a strategy based on measured of perceived results. Researchers are adopting game theory approaches to model and analyze leading wireless communication networking issues, which includes QoS, power control, resource sharing, etc.

Keywords: wireless sensor network, game theory, cooperative game theory, non-cooperative game theory

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Authors: Supunmali Ahangama, Danny Chiang Choon Poo

Abstract:

Health analytics (HA) is used in healthcare systems for effective decision-making, management, and planning of healthcare and related activities. However, user resistance, the unique position of medical data content, and structure (including heterogeneous and unstructured data) and impromptu HA projects have held up the progress in HA applications. Notably, the accuracy of outcomes depends on the skills and the domain knowledge of the data analyst working on the healthcare data. The success of HA depends on having a sound process model, effective project management and availability of supporting tools. Thus, to overcome these challenges through an effective process model, we propose an HA process model with features from the rational unified process (RUP) model and agile methodology.

Keywords: agile methodology, health analytics, unified process model, UML

Procedia PDF Downloads 503

Authors: Ruqiya Anwar

Abstract:

The present study is aimed to find out the Impact of Foreign direct Investment on lifestyle of working women in Rawalpindi and Islamabad (Pakistan). It was hypothesized that easy access to consumer loans uplifts the lifestyle of women. First part of the research study was aimed at developing a tool to measure the Impact of FDI on living pattern of women in Rawalpindi and Islamabad. Purposive sampling technique was used to collect the more reliable and valid data.81 females working in different banks of Rawalpindi and Islamabad (Pakistan) were included in the sample. The value of Alpha Reliability coefficient is .774 for the tool of study. Which was found satisfactory and indicated that tool is reliable to measure the study objectives. Finding of the study showed that foreign direct investment has significant and positive impact on lifestyle of women in Rawalpindi and Islamabad (Pakistan). Study also revealed that there is moderate and high level of consumption power women have through foreign direct investment, which supports the hypothesis.

Keywords: foreign direct investment, lifestyle of women, consumption power, consumer loans

Procedia PDF Downloads 348

Authors: Essang Anwana Onuntuei, Chinyere Blessing Azunwoke

Abstract:

The study focused on probing the effectiveness of online consumer privacy and protection laws, electronic transaction laws, privacy and data protection laws, and cybercrime legislation amid frequent cyber-attacks and malware types worldwide. An empirical analysis was engaged to uncover ties and causations between the stringency and implementation of these legal structures and the prevalence of cyber threats. A deliberate sample of seventy-eight countries (thirteen countries each from six continents) was chosen as sample size to study the challenges linked with trending regulations and possible panoramas for improving cybersecurity through refined legal approaches. Findings establish if the frequency of cyber-attacks and malware types vary significantly. Also, the result proved that various cybercrime laws differ statistically, and electronic transactions law does not statistically impact the frequency of cyber-attacks. The result also statistically revealed that the online Consumer Privacy and Protection law does not influence the total number of cyber-attacks. In addition, the results implied that Privacy and Data Protection laws do not statistically impact the total number of cyber-attacks worldwide. The calculated value also proved that cybercrime law does not statistically impact the total number of cyber-attacks. Finally, the computed value concludes that combined multiple cyber laws do not significantly impact the total number of cyber-attacks worldwide. Suggestions were produced based on findings from the study, contributing to the ongoing debate on the validity of legal approaches in battling cybercrime and shielding consumers in the digital age.

Keywords: cybercrime legislation, cyber attacks, consumer privacy and protection law, detection, electronic transaction law, prevention, privacy and data protection law, prohibition, prosecution

Procedia PDF Downloads 35