Search results for: climate scenario

Authors: M. Mulumpwa, W. W. L. Jere, M. Lazaro, A. H. N. Mtethiwa

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The study considered Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) processes to select an appropriate stochastic model to forecast the monthly data from the Lake Malawi water levels for the period 1986 through 2015. The appropriate model was chosen based on SARIMA (p, d, q) (P, D, Q)S. The Autocorrelation function (ACF), Partial autocorrelation (PACF), Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), Box–Ljung statistics, correlogram and distribution of residual errors were estimated. The SARIMA (1, 1, 0) (1, 1, 1)12 was selected to forecast the monthly data of the Lake Malawi water levels from August, 2015 to December, 2021. The plotted time series showed that the Lake Malawi water levels are decreasing since 2010 to date but not as much as was the case in 1995 through 1997. The future forecast of the Lake Malawi water levels until 2021 showed a mean of 474.47 m ranging from 473.93 to 475.02 meters with a confidence interval of 80% and 90% against registered mean of 473.398 m in 1997 and 475.475 m in 1989 which was the lowest and highest water levels in the lake respectively since 1986. The forecast also showed that the water levels of Lake Malawi will drop by 0.57 meters as compared to the mean water levels recorded in the previous years. These results suggest that the Lake Malawi water level may not likely go lower than that recorded in 1997. Therefore, utilisation and management of water-related activities and programs among others on the lake should provide room for such scenarios. The findings suggest a need to manage the Lake Malawi jointly and prudently with other stakeholders starting from the catchment area. This will reduce impacts of anthropogenic activities on the lake’s water quality, water level, aquatic and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems thereby ensuring its resilience to climate change impacts.

Keywords: forecasting, Lake Malawi, water levels, water level fluctuation, climate change, anthropogenic activities

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Authors: Khatia Tavidashvili, Nino Jamrishvili, Valerian Omsarashvili

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Studies of the vertical distribution of the air temperature in the atmosphere have great value for the solution of different problems of meteorology and climatology (meteorological forecast of showers, thunderstorms, and hail, weather modification, estimation of climate change, etc.). From the end of May 2015 in Kakheti after 25-year interruption, the work of anti-hail service was restored. Therefore, in connection with climate change, the need for the detailed study of the contemporary regime of the vertical distribution of the air temperature above this territory arose. In particular, the indicated information is necessary for the optimum selection of rocket means with the works on the weather modification (fight with the hail, the regulation of atmospheric precipitations, etc.). Construction of the detailed maps of the potential damage distribution of agricultural crops from the hail, etc. taking into account the dimensions of hailstones in the clouds according to the data of radar measurements and height of locality are the most important factors. For now, in Georgia, there is no aerological probing of atmosphere. To solve given problem we processed information about air temperature profiles above Telavi, at 27 km above earth's surface. Information was gathered during four observation time (4, 10, 16, 22 hours with local time. After research, we found vertical distribution of the average monthly values of the air temperature above Kakheti in ‎2012-2017 from January to December. Research was conducted from 0.543 to 27 km above sea level during four periods of research. In particular, it is obtained: -during January the monthly average air temperature linearly diminishes with 2.6 °C on the earth's surface to -57.1 °C at the height of 10 km, then little it changes up to the height of 26 km; the gradient of the air temperature in the layer of the atmosphere from 0.543 to 8 km - 6.3 °C/km; height of zero isotherm - is 1.33 km. -during July the air temperature linearly diminishes with 23.5 °C to -64.7 °C at the height of 17 km, then it grows to -47.5 °C at the height of 27 km; the gradient of the air temperature of - 6.1 °C/km; height of zero isotherm - is 4.39 km, which on 0.16 km is higher than in the sixties of past century.

Keywords: hail, Kakheti, meteorology, vertical distribution of the air temperature

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Authors: Chris Fersterer, Col Fay, Tobias Danielmeier, Kat Achterberg, Scott Willis

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New Zealand, an island nation, has an extensive coastline peppered with small communities of iconic buildings known as Bachs. Post WWII, these modest buildings were constructed by their owners as retreats and generally were small, low cost, often using recycled material and often they fell below current acceptable building standards. In the latter part of the 20^th century, real estate prices in many of these communities remained low and these areas became permanent residences for people attracted to this affordable lifestyle choice. The Blueskin Resilient Communities Trust (BRCT) is an organisation that recognises the vulnerability of communities in low lying settlements as now being prone to increased flood threat brought about by climate change and sea level rise. Some of the inhabitants of Blueskin Bay, Otago, NZ have already found their properties to be un-insurable because of increased frequency of flood events and property values have slumped accordingly. Territorial authorities also acknowledge this increased risk and have created additional compliance measures for new buildings that are less than 2 m above tidal peaks. Community resilience becomes an additional concern where inhabitants are attracted to a lifestyle associated with a specific location and its people when this lifestyle is unable to be met in a suburban or city context. Traditional models of social housing fail to provide the sense of community connectedness and identity enjoyed by the current residents of Blueskin Bay. BRCT have partnered with the Otago Polytechnic Design School to design a new form of community housing that can react to this environmental change. It is a longitudinal project incorporating participatory approaches as a means of getting people ‘on board’, to understand complex systems and co-develop solutions. In the first period, they are seeking industry support and funding to develop a transportable and fully self-contained housing model that exploits current technologies. BRCT also hope that the building will become an educational tool to highlight climate change issues facing us today. This paper uses the Climate Safe House (CSH) as a case study for education in architectural sustainability through experiential learning offered as part of the Otago Polytechnics Bachelor of Design. Students engage with the project with research methodologies, including site surveys, resident interviews, data sourced from government agencies and physical modelling. The process involves collaboration across design disciplines including product and interior design but also includes connections with industry, both within the education institution and stakeholder industries introduced through BRCT. This project offers a rich learning environment where students become engaged through project based learning within a community of practice, including architecture, construction, energy and other related fields. The design outcomes are expressed in a series of public exhibitions and forums where community input is sought in a truly participatory process.

Keywords: community resilience, problem based learning, project based learning, case study

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Authors: Vikram Munjal, Harpreet Munjal

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A few years ago we could hardly think of Libraries' strategic plan that includes the bold and amazing prediction of a mostly digital environment for a library system. However, sheer hard work by the engineers, academicians, and librarians made it feasible. However, it requires huge expenditure and now a day‘s spending for electronic resources (e-resources) have been growing much more rapidly than have the materials budgets of which such resources are usually a part. And many libraries are spending a huge amount on e-resources. Libraries today are in the midst of a profound shift toward reliance on e-resources, and this reliance seems to have deepened in recent years as libraries have shed paper journal subscriptions to help pay for online access. This has been exercised only to cater user behavior and attitudes that seem to be changing even more quickly in this dynamic scenario.

Keywords: radio frequency identification, management, scanning, barcodes, checkout and tags

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Authors: Eve-Andree Laramee

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The aesthetics and ethics of the Nuclear Anthropocene are explored through artists responses to the impact of radioactive materials on ecological systems, global issues, energy policies and ourselves. This presentation tracks and reveals the invisible traces of the nuclear weapons complex and the nuclear energy industry, in relation to environmental justice. Radioactive pollution transgresses international borders, boundaries between land and water, contaminating ecological systems. Radioactive waste is never disposed of; it is dispositioned, placed out of sight and out of mind. These materials leave behind an invisible toxic legacy lasting millions of years. As we are learning post-Fukushima, when climate change occurs and vulnerability spectrums shift, nuclear sites and the life forms surrounding them are at increased risk. By visualizing this contamination through art installations, videos, and social-sculpture interventions, information is shared with the public, raising awareness, and activating community participation in remediation and nonproliferation efforts. The emerging Ecological Art genre proposes paradigms sustainable with the life forms and resources of our planet. It is comprised of artists, scientists, philosophers and activists devoted to these. EcoArt is distinguished by a focus on systems and interrelationships within our environment: the ecological, geographic, political, biological and cultural. This presentation will cover artworks addressing the recent Fukushima meltdowns, weapons proliferation, climate change, radioactive waste disposal and environmental justice. Possibilities for art-and-science collaborations will be discussed as projects that sharpen our ethics and politics in our behaviors and social interactions. The presentation will consist of a PowerPoint talk (paper presentation) accompanied by images and video clips.

Keywords: art, ecology, environment, anthropocene, nuclear

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Authors: Qurratulain Safdar

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Drought is a temporary aberration in contrast to aridity, as it is a permanent feature of climate. Virtually, it takes place in all types of climatic regions that range from high to low rainfall areas. Due to the wide latitudinal extent of Pakistan, there is seasonal and annual variability in rainfall. The south-central part of the country is arid and hyper-arid. This study focuses on the spatio-temporal analysis of droughts in arid and hyperarid region of Cholistan using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) approach. This study has assessed the extent of recurrences of drought and its temporal vulnerability to drought in Cholistan region. Initially, the paper described the geographic setup of the study area along with a brief description of the drought conditions that prevail in Pakistan. The study also provides a scientific foundation for preparing literature and theoretical framework in-line with the selected parameters and indicators. Data were collected both from primary and secondary data sources. Rainfall and temperature data were obtained from Pakistan Meteorology Department. By applying geostatistical approach, a standardized precipitation index (SPI) was calculated for the study region, and the value of spatio-temporal variability of drought and its severity was explored. As a result, in-depth spatial analysis of drought conditions in Cholistan area was found. Parallel to this, drought-prone areas with seasonal variation were also identified using Kriging spatial interpolation techniques in a GIS environment. The study revealed that there is temporal variation in droughts' occurrences both in time series and SPI values. The paper is finally concluded, and strategic plan was suggested to minimize the impacts of drought.

Keywords: Cholistan desert, climate anomalies, metrological droughts, standardized precipitation index

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Authors: Ravi Kant Anand, Nikkey Keshri

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The Great Barrier Reef of Australia is known for its beautiful landscapes and seascapes with ecological importance. This site was selected as a World Heritage site in 1981 and popularized internationally for tourism, recreational activities and fishing. But the major environmental hazards such as climate change, pollution, overfishing and shipping are making worst the site of marine ecosystem. Climate change is directly hitting on Great Barrier Reef through increasing level of sea, acidification of ocean, increasing in temperature, uneven precipitation, changes in the El Nino and increasing level of cyclones and storms. Apart from that pollution is second biggest factor which vanishing the coral reef ecosystem. Pollution including over increasement of pesticides and chemicals, eutrophication, pollution through mining, sediment runoff, loss of coastal wetland and oil spills. Coral bleaching is the biggest problem because of the environmental threatening agents. Acidification of ocean water reduced the formation of calcium carbonate skeleton. The floral ecosystem (including sea grasses and mangroves) of ocean water is the key source of food for fishes and other faunal organisms but the powerful waves, extreme temperature, destructive storms and river run- off causing the threat for them. If one natural system is under threat, it means the whole marine food web is affected from algae to whale. Poisoning of marine water through different polluting agents have been affecting the production of corals, breeding of fishes, weakening of marine health and increased in death of fishes and corals. In lieu of World Heritage site, tourism sector is directly affected and causing increasement in unemployment. Fishing sector also affected. Fluctuation in the temperature of ocean water affects the production of corals because it needs desolate place, proper sunlight and temperature up to 21 degree centigrade. But storms, El Nino, rise in temperature and sea level are induced for continuous reduction of the coral production. If we do not restrict the environmental problems of Great Barrier Reef than the best known ecological beauty with coral reefs, pelagic environments, algal meadows, coasts and estuaries, mangroves forests and sea grasses, fish species, coral gardens and the one of the best tourist spots will lost in upcoming years. My research will focus on the different environmental threats, its socio-economic impacts and different conservative measures.

Keywords: climate change, overfishing, acidification, eutrophication

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Authors: Rosimeire Araújo Silva, Philip Martin Fearnside

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Extreme droughts and floods in the Amazon have serious consequences for natural ecosystems and the human population in the region. The frequency of these events has increased in recent years, and projections of climate change predict greater frequency and intensity of these events. Understanding the links between these extreme events and different patterns of sea surface temperature in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans is essential, both to improve the modeling of climate change and its consequences and to support efforts of adaptation in the region. The relationship between sea temperatures and events in the Amazon is much more complex than is usually assumed in climatic models. Warming and cooling of different parts of the oceans, as well as the interaction between simultaneous temperature changes in different parts of each ocean and between the two oceans, have specific consequences for the Amazon, with effects on precipitation that vary in different parts of the region. Simplistic generalities, such as the association between El Niño events and droughts in the Amazon, do not capture this complexity. We investigated the variability of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Tropical Pacific Ocean during the period 1950-2022, using Empirical Orthogonal Functions (FOE), spectral analysis coherence and wavelet phase. The two were identified as the main modes of variability, which explain about 53,9% and 13,3%, respectively, of the total variance of the data. The spectral and coherence analysis and wavelets phase showed that the first selected mode represents the warming in the central part of the Pacific Ocean (the “Central El Niño”), while the second mode represents warming in the eastern part of the Pacific (the “Eastern El Niño The effects of the 1982-1983 and 1976-1977 El Niño events in the Amazon, although both events were characterized by an increase in sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, the impact on rainfall in the Amazon was distinct. In the rainy season, from December to March, the sub-basins of the Japurá, Jutaí, Jatapu, Tapajós, Trombetas and Xingu rivers were the regions that showed the greatest reductions in rainfall associated with El Niño Central (1982-1983), while the sub-basins of the Javari, Purus, Negro and Madeira rivers had the most pronounced reductions in the year of Eastern El Niño (1976-1977). In the transition to the dry season, in April, the greatest reductions were associated with the Eastern El Niño year for the majority of the study region, with the exception only of the sub-basins of the Madeira, Trombetas and Xingu rivers, which had their associated reductions to Central El Niño. In the dry season from July to September, the sub-basins of the Japurá Jutaí Jatapu Javari Trombetas and Madeira rivers were the rivers that showed the greatest reductions in rainfall associated with El Niño Central, while the sub-basins of the Tapajós Purus Negro and Xingu rivers had the most pronounced reductions. In the Eastern El Niño year this season. In this way, it is possible to conclude that the Central (Eastern) El Niño controlled the reductions in soil moisture in the dry (rainy) season for all sub-basins shown in this study. Extreme drought events associated with these meteorological phenomena can lead to a significant increase in the occurrence of forest fires. These fires have a devastating impact on Amazonian vegetation, resulting in the irreparable loss of biodiversity and the release of large amounts of carbon stored in the forest, contributing to the increase in the greenhouse effect and global climate change.

Keywords: sea surface temperature, variability, climate, Amazon

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Authors: Sifat Rahman Ahona, Rifat Tasnim, Naima Hassan

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Data aggregation is a helpful technique for reducing the data communication overhead in wireless sensor network. One of the important tasks of data aggregation is positioning of the aggregator points. There are a lot of works done on data aggregation. But, efficient positioning of the aggregators points is not focused so much. In this paper, authors are focusing on the positioning or the placement of the aggregation points in wireless sensor network. Authors proposed an algorithm to select the aggregators positions for a scenario where aggregator nodes are more powerful than sensor nodes.

Keywords: aggregation point, data communication, data aggregation, wireless sensor network

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Authors: Mara Getachew Zenebe, Luuk Fleskens, Abdu Obieda Ahmed

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This paper seeks to advance our scientific understanding of optimizing flood utilization in regions impacted by climate change, with a focus on enhancing agricultural productivity through effective irrigation management. The study was conducted as part of a three-year (2021 to 2023) USAID-supported initiative aimed at promoting Economic Growth and Peace in the Gash Agricultural Scheme (GAS), situated in Sudan's water-stressed Eastern region. GAS is the country's largest flood-irrigated scheme, covering 100,800 hectares of cultivable land, with a potential to provide the food security needs of over a quarter of a million agro-pastoral community members. GAS relies on the Gash River, which sources its water from high-intensity rainfall events in the highlands of Ethiopia and Eritrea. However, climate change and variations in these highlands have led to increased variability in the Gash River's flow. The study conducted water balance analyses based on a ten-year dataset of the annual Gash River flow, irrigated area; as well as the evapotranspiration demand of the major sorghum crop. Data collection methods included field measurements, surveys, remote sensing, and CropWat modelling. The water balance assessment revealed that the existing three-year rotation-based irrigation system management, capping cultivated land at 33,000 hectares annually, is excessively risk-averse. While this system reduced conflicts among the agro-pastoral communities by consistently delivering on the land promised to be annually cultivated, it also increased GAS's vulnerability to flood damage due to several reasons. The irrigation efficiency over the past decade was approximately 30%, leaving significant unharnessed floodwater that caused damage to infrastructure and agricultural land. The three-year rotation resulted in inadequate infrastructural maintenance, given the destructive nature of floods. Additionally, it led to infrequent land tillage, allowing the encroachment of mesquite trees hindering major sorghum crop growth. Remote sensing data confirmed that mesquite trees have overtaken 70,000 hectares in the past two decades, rendering them unavailable for agriculture. The water balance analyses suggest shifting to a two-year rotation, covering approximately 50,000 hectares annually while maintaining risk aversion. This shift could boost GAS's annual sorghum production by two-thirds, exceeding 850,000 tons. The scheme's efficiency can be further enhanced through low-cost on-farm interventions. Currently, large irrigation plots that range from 420 to 756 hectares are irrigated with limited water distribution guidance, leading to uneven irrigation. As demonstrated through field trials, implementing internal longitudinal bunds and horizontal deflector bunds can increase adequately irrigated parts of the irrigation plots from 50% to 80% and thus nearly double the sorghum yield to 2 tons per hectare while reducing the irrigation duration from 30 days to a maximum of 17 days. Flow measurements in 2021 and 2022 confirmed that these changes sufficiently meet the sorghum crop's water requirements, even with a conservative 60% field application efficiency assumption. These insights and lessons from the GAS on enhancing agricultural resilience and sustainability in the face of climate change are relevant to flood-based livelihood systems globally.

Keywords: climate change, irrigation management and productivity, variable flood flows, water balance analysis

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Authors: Abderrahmane Soufi

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The building sector is the largest consumer of energy in France, accounting for 44% of French consumption. To reduce energy consumption and improve energy efficiency, France implemented an energy transition law targeting 40% energy savings by 2030 in the tertiary building sector. Building simulation tools are used to predict the energy performance of buildings but the reliability of these tools is hampered by discrepancies between the real and simulated energy performance of a building. This performance gap lies in the simplified assumptions of certain factors, such as the behavior of occupants on air conditioning and heating, which is considered deterministic when setting a fixed operating schedule and a fixed interior comfort temperature. However, the behavior of occupants on air conditioning and heating is stochastic, diverse, and complex because it can be affected by many factors. Probabilistic models are an alternative to deterministic models. These models are usually derived from statistical data and express occupant behavior by assuming a probabilistic relationship to one or more variables. In the literature, logistic regression has been used to model the behavior of occupants with regard to heating and air conditioning systems by considering univariate logistic models in residential buildings; however, few studies have developed multivariate models for higher education and vocational training buildings in a Mediterranean climate. Therefore, in this study, occupant behavior on heating and air conditioning systems was modeled using logistic regression. Occupant behavior related to the turn-on heating and air conditioning systems was studied through experimental measurements collected over a period of one year (June 2023–June 2024) in three classrooms occupied by several groups of students in engineering schools and professional training. Instrumentation was provided to collect indoor temperature and indoor relative humidity in 10-min intervals. Furthermore, the state of the heating/air conditioning system (off or on) and the set point were determined. The outdoor air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed were collected as weather data. The number of occupants, age, and sex were also considered. Logistic regression was used for modeling an occupant turning on the heating and air conditioning systems. The results yielded a proposed model that can be used in building simulation tools to predict the energy performance of teaching buildings. Based on the first months (summer and early autumn) of the investigations, the results illustrate that the occupant behavior of the air conditioning systems is affected by the indoor relative humidity and temperature in June, July, and August and by the indoor relative humidity, temperature, and number of occupants in September and October. Occupant behavior was analyzed monthly, and univariate and multivariate models were developed.

Keywords: occupant behavior, logistic regression, behavior model, mediterranean climate, air conditioning, heating

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Authors: Sarono, Hamim Zaky Hadibasyir, dan Ridho Kurniawan

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Estimation of paddy production is one of the areas that can be examined using the techniques of remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) in the field of agriculture. The purpose of this research is to know the amount of the paddy production estimation and how remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) are able to perform analysis of paddy production estimation in Tegalallang and Payangan Sub district, Bali Province, Indonesia. The method used is the method of land suitability. This method associates a physical parameters which are to be embodied in the smallest unit of a mapping that represents a mapping unit in a particular field and connecting with its field productivity. Analysis of estimated production using standard land suitability from FAO using matching technique. The parameters used to create the land unit is slope (FAO), climate classification (Oldeman), landform (Prapto Suharsono), and soil type. Land use map consist of paddy and non paddy field information obtained from Geo-eye 1 imagery using visual interpretation technique. Landsat image of the Data used for the interpretation of the landform, the classification of the slopes obtained from high point identification with method of interpolation spline, whereas climate data, soil, use secondary data originating from institutions-related institutions. The results of this research indicate Tegallalang and Payangan Districts in known wetland suitability consists of S1 (very suitable) covering an area of 2884,7 ha with the productivity of 5 tons/ha and S2 (suitable) covering an area of 482,9 ha with the productivity of 3 tons/ha. The sum of paddy production estimation as a results in both districts are 31.744, 3 tons in one year.

Keywords: production estimation, paddy, remote sensing, geography information system, land suitability

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Authors: Surajo Ladan

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English has been in existence in Nigeria since colonial period. The advent of English in Nigeria has caused a lot of linguistic changes in Nigerian languages especially among the educated elites and to some extent, even the ordinary people were not spared from this phenomenon. This scenario has generated a linguistic situation which culminated into the creation of Nigerian Pidgin that are conglomeration of English and other Nigerian languages. English has infiltrated the Nigerian languages to a point that a typical Nigerian can hardly talk without code-switching or using one English word or the other. The existence of English loanwords in Nigerian languages has taken another dimension in this scientific and technological age. Most of scientific and technological inventions are products of English language which are virtually adopted into the languages with phonological, morphological, and sometimes semantic variations. This paper is of the view that there should be a re-think and agitation from Nigerians to protect their languages from the linguistic genocide of English which are invariably facing extinction.

Keywords: linguistic change, loanword, phenomenon, pidgin

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Authors: Djeffal Asma, Zemmouri Noureddine

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In order for building designer to be able to balance environmental concerns with other performance requirements, they need clear and concise information. For certain decisions during the design process, qualitative guidance, such as design checklists or guidelines information may not be sufficient for evaluating the environmental benefits between different building materials, products and designs. In this case, quantitative information, such as that generated through a life cycle assessment, provides the most value. LCA provides a systematic approach to evaluating the environmental impacts of a product or system over its entire life. In the case of buildings life cycle includes the extraction of raw materials, manufacturing, transporting and installing building components or products, operating and maintaining the building. By integrating LCA into building design process, designers can evaluate the life cycle impacts of building design, materials, components and systems and choose the combinations that reduce the building life cycle environmental impact. This article attempts to give an overview of the integration of LCA methodology in the context of building design, and focuses on the use of this methodology for environmental considerations concerning process design and optimization. A multiple case study was conducted in order to assess the benefits of the LCA as a decision making aid tool during the first stages of the building design under specific climate conditions of the North East region of Algeria. It is clear that the LCA methodology can help to assess and reduce the impact of a building design and components on the environment even if the process implementation is rather long and complicated and lacks of global approach including human factors. It is also demonstrated that using LCA as a multi objective optimization of building process will certainly facilitates the improvement in design and decision making for both new design and retrofit projects.

Keywords: life cycle assessment, buildings, sustainability, elementary schools, environmental impacts

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Authors: Mara F. Müller, Simon C. Griffith, Tara L. Crewe, Mirjam Kaestli, Sydney J. Collett, Ian J. Radford, Hamish A. Campbell

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The intensity and frequency of heat waves have been progressively increasing because of climate change. Passerines that inhabit very hot regions are already close to their physiological thermal limit and are thus considered highly susceptible to increased ambient temperatures. However, the extent by which passerines behaviorally compensate for extreme heat in their natural habitat has rarely been assessed due to monitoring challenges. To address this knowledge gap, coded VHF-nano transmitters were attached to a tropical passerine (Gouldian finch, Chloebia gouldiae). Fine-scale activity and movement were monitored throughout the hottest and driest period of the year using an array of static VHF-receivers. The finches were found to typically show a peak activity for a few hours at sunrise and remained relatively quiescent for the rest of the day. However, on extremely hot days (max temperature >38ºC), finches showed higher activity levels earlier in the morning and presented a second peak in the afternoon. Gouldian finches are physiologically challenged when ambient temperatures exceed 38ºC, suggesting the shift in movement activity reflects a behavioral mitigation strategy to extreme heat. These tropical finches already exist on an energetic knife-edge during this time of the year due to resource scarcity. Hence, the increased energetic expenditure to mitigate thermal stress may be detrimental. The study demonstrates the value of VHF-telemetry technology in monitoring the impact of global change on the biology of small-bodied mobile species.

Keywords: animal tracking, biotelemetry, climate change, extreme heat, movement activity, radiotelemetry, VHF-telemetry

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Authors: Emmanuel Okine Neokye Serge Dossou Martin Iniga Bortey Nketia Alabi-Doku

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Fish stock distribution is greatly influenced by oceanographic environmental conditions. Temporal variations of temperature and other oceanic properties, resulting from climate change have been documented to have a strong impact on fisheries and aquaculture. In Ghana, Sardinella species are one of the most important fisheries resources; they constitute about 60% of the total catch of coastal fisheries and are more predominant during the upwelling season. The present study investigated the role of physical oceanographic environmental conditions in the catches of Sardinella species: S. aurita and S. maderensis, which were landed in Ghana. Furthermore, we examined the relationship between environmental conditions and catches of Sardinella species for seasonal and interannual variations between 2005 and 2015. For oceanographic environmental factors, we used comprehensive datasets, which consist of :(1) daily in situ SST data obtained at two coastal stations in Ghana; (i) Cape 3 Points (4.7° N, -2.09° W) and (ii) Tema (5° N, 0° E), for the period 2005–2015, (2) Monthly SST data (MOAA GPV) from JAMSTEC, and (3) gridded 10 metre wind data from CCMP reanalysis. The analysis of the data collected showed that higher (lower) wind velocity forms stronger (weaker) coastal upwelling that is detected by lower (higher) SST, resulting in a higher (lower) catch of Sardinella spp., in both seasonal and interannual variations. It was also observed that the capture ability of small pelagic fish species such as Sardinella spp. is depend on the intensity of the coastal upwelling. Moreso, the Atlantic Meridional Mode index (climatic index) is now known to be a possible factor to the interannual variation in catch of small pelagic fish species.

Keywords: Sardinella spp., fish, climate change, Ghana

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Authors: S. M. Hashemy Shahdany

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Equitable water delivery becomes one of the main concerns for water authorities in arid regions. Due to water scarcity, providing reliable amount of water is not possible for most of the irrigation districts in arid regions. In this paper, water level difference control is applied to keep the water level errors equal in adjacent reaches. Distant downstream decentralized configurations of the control method are designed and tested under a realistic scenario shows canal operation under water shortage. The simulation results show that the difference controllers share the water level error among all of the users in a fair way. Therefore, water deficit has a similar influence on downstream as well as upstream and water offtakes.

Keywords: equitable water distribution, precise agriculture, sustainable agriculture, water shortage

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Authors: Jiří Hirš, Jitka Mohelnikova

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A photovoltaic system integrated into a high-rise building façade was studied. The high-rise building is located in the Central Europe region with temperate climate and dominant partly cloudy and overcast sky conditions. The PV façade has been monitored since 2013. The three-year monitoring of the façade energy generation shows that the façade has an important impact on the building energy efficiency and sustainable operation.

Keywords: buildings, energy, PV façade, solar radiation

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Authors: Teguh Nurhidayat, Nurhamid, Dicky Muslim, Zufialdi Zakaria, Irvan Sophian

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This paper presents the role of climate change as the factor that induces landslide. Case study is located at Lahat Regency, South Sumatera Province, Indonesia. Study area has high economic value of coal reserves (mostly subbituminous – bituminous), which is developable for open pit coal mining in the future. Seams are found in Muara Enim Formation. This formation is at south Sumatera basin which is formed at Tertiary as a result of collision between the indian plate and eurasian plate. South Sumatera basin which is a basin located in back arc basin. This study aims to unravel the relationship between slope stability with different season condition in tropical climate. Undisturbed soil samples were obtained in the field along with other geological data. Laboratory works were carried out to obtain physical and mechanical properties of soils. Methodology to analyze slope stability is bishop method. Bishop methods are used to identify safety factor of slope. Result shows that slopes in rainy season conditions are more prone to landslides than in dry season. In the dry seasons with moisture content is 22.65%, safety factor is 1.28 the slope in stable condition. If rain is approaching with moisture content increasing to 97.8%, the slope began to be critical. On wet condition groundwater levels is increased, followed by γ (unit weight), c (cohesion), and φ (angle of friction) at 18.04, 5,88 kN/m2, and 28,04°, respectively, which ultimately determines the security factor FS to be 1.01 (slope in unstable conditions).

Keywords: rainfall, moisture content, slope analysis, landslide prone

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Authors: Hadj Miloua, Abbes Azzi

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The objective of the present paper is to understand, predict and modeled the fire behavior in confined and open area in different conditions and diverse fuels such as liquid pool fire and the vegetative materials. The distinctive problems are a ventilated road tunnel used for urban transport, by the characterization installations of ventilation and his influence in the mode of smoke dispersion and the flame shape. A general investigation is relatively traditional, based on the modeling and simulation the scenario of the pool fire interacted with wind ventilation by the use of numerical software fire dynamic simulator FDS ver.5 to simulate the fire in ventilated tunnel. The second simulation by WFDS.5 is Wildland fire which is always occurs in forest and rangeland fire environments and will thus have an impact on people, property and resources.

Keywords: fire, road tunnel, simulation, vegetation, wildland

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Authors: Noah G. Akhimien, Eshrar Latif

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The natural environment is in need for an urgent rescue due to dilapidation and recession of resources. Passive design strategies have proven to be one of the effective ways to reduce CO₂ emissions and to improve building performance. On the other hand, there is a huge drop in material availability due to poor recycling culture. Consequently, building waste pose environmental hazard due to unrecycled building materials from construction and deconstruction. Buildings are seen to be material banks for a circular economy, therefore incorporating circular economy into passive housing will not only safe guide the climate but also improve resource efficiency. The study focuses on incorporating a circular economy in passive design strategies for an affordable energy and resource efficient residential building in Nigeria. Carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration is still on the increase as buildings are responsible for a significant amount of this emission globally. Therefore, prompt measures need to be taken to combat the effect of global warming and associated threats. Nigeria is rapidly growing in human population, resources on the other hand have receded greatly, and there is an abrupt need for recycling even in the built environment. It is necessary that Nigeria responds to these challenges effectively and efficiently considering building resource and energy. Passive design strategies were assessed using simulations to obtain qualitative and quantitative data which were inferred to case studies as it relates to the Nigeria climate. Building materials were analysed using the ReSOLVE model in order to explore possible recycling phase. This provided relevant information and strategies to illustrate the possibility of circular economy in passive buildings. The study offers an alternative approach, as it is the general principle for the reworking of an economy on ecological lines in passive housing and by closing material loops in circular economy.

Keywords: building, circular, efficiency, environment, sustainability

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Authors: Arun Dhakal, Rajesh Kumar Rai

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Agroforestry is long practiced in Nepal as a means of subsistence livelihoods. Given its potential to climate change mitigation, this practice is being recommended as a climate-smart farming practice in the recent years. However, the financial attractiveness of this practice is not well-documented in a labor scarce economy such as Nepal. This study attempts to examine the financial suitability of an agroforestry-based farming practice in the present socio-economic context of Nepal where labor is in short supply. A total of 200 households were randomly selected for household surveys in Dhanusha district during April to July 2015. Two farming practices were found to be dominant in the study area: 1) conventional farming (field crops only) in which at least two field crops are annually grown, and 2) agroforestry-based farming (agroforest, home garden and field crops combined) practice (ABFP). The ABFP was found to be less labor intensive than the conventional farming (137 Man days/yr/ha vs 218 Man days/yr/ha). The ex-ante financial analysis indicated that both the farming practices generated positive NPVs (Net Present Values) and B/C (Benefit-Cost) ratios greater than one, indicating both are financially attractive farming enterprises under the base discount rate of 12%. However, the ABFP generated higher NPV and greater B/C ratio than the conventional farming, indicating the former was financially more attractive than the later. The sensitivity analysis showed that the conventional farming was more sensitive to change in labor wage rate than that of the ABFP. Up to the 24% discount rate, the ABFP generated higher NPV and in case of B/C ratio, the ratio was found greater for ABFP even in 50% discount rate.

Keywords: agroforestry, benefit-cost analysis, conventional farming, net present value

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Authors: Gopinath Rathod, Vinod Puranik

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Sustainability is regarded as a key concept for survival in the competitive scenario. Industrial risk and diversification of risk type’s increases with industrial developments. In the context of sustainable manufacturing, the evaluation of risk is difficult because of the incomplete information and multiple indicators. Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Method (FMADM) has been used with a three level hierarchical decision making model to evaluate aggregate risk for sustainable manufacturing projects. A case study has been presented to reflect the risk characteristics in sustainable manufacturing projects.

Keywords: sustainable manufacturing, decision making, aggregate risk, fuzzy logic, fuzzy multiple attribute decision method

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Authors: Aly Ahmed, Aber Kay Obwona, Mokrzecka Martyna, Piotrowska Małgorzata, Richardson Stephen

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Frankfurt am Main, the fifth largest city in Germany, ranked at 15th place by the Global Financial Centers Index in 2014, and a finalist of European Green Capital, 214 is a crucial player in German Environmental Policy. Since 2012 the city Authorities have been working on implementing the plan, which assumed to reduce the energy consumption by 50%, and fully switch to renewable energy by the year 2050. To achieve this goal, the Municipality of Frankfurt has begun preparing the Master plan, which will be introduced to public by the end of 2015. A significant question when facing the starting of Master Plan public’s introduction was deciding which method should be used to increase the public engagement. In order to answer this question, the city and region authorities in the cooperation with Frankfurt’s Universities and Climate KIC, organized a two-week PhD scientific workshops, in which participated more than 30 students from numerous countries. The paper presented the outcome of the research and solution proposal of the winning team. Transitions theory tells, that to address challenges as complex as Climate Change and the Energiewende, using of new technologies and system to the public is not sufficient. Transition –by definition is a process, and in such a large scale (city and region transition) can be fulfilled only, when operates within a broad socio – technical system. Authors believe that only by close cooperation with city dwellers, as well as different stakeholders, the Transition in Frankfurt can be successful. The vital part is the strategy which will ensure the engagement, sense of ownership and broad support within Frankfurt society. Author proposal based therefore, on fostering the citizens engagement through a comprehensive, innovative communication strategy.

Keywords: city development, communication strategies, social transition, sustainability

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Authors: Ballout Amor, Yasmina Bouchahm, Lacheheb Dhia Eddine Zakaria

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Several studies all around the world were conducted on the phenomenon of the urban heat island, and referring to the results obtained, one of the most important factors that influence this phenomenon is the mineralization of the cities which means the reducing of evaporative urban surfaces, replacing vegetation and wetlands with concrete and asphalt. The use of vegetation and water can change the urban environment and improve comfort, thus reduce the heat island. The trees act as a mask to the sun, wind, and sound, and also as a source of humidity which reduces air temperature and surrounding surfaces. Water also acts as a buffer to noise; it is also a source of moisture and regulates temperature not to mention the psychological effect on humans. Our main objective in this paper is to determine the impact of vegetation, ponds and fountains on the urban micro climate in general and on the thermal comfort of people along the Independence square in the Algerian city of Sétif, which is a semi-arid climate, in particularly. In order to reach this objective, a comparative study between different scenarios has been done; the use of the Envi-met program enabled us to model the urban environment of the Independence Square and to study the possibility of improving the conditions of comfort by adding an amount of vegetation and water ponds. After studying the results obtained (temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, PMV and PPD indicators), the efficiency of the additions we've made on the square was confirmed and this is what helped us to confirm our assumptions regarding the terms of comfort in the studied site, and in the end we are trying to develop recommendations and solutions which may contribute to improve the conditions for greater comfort in the Independence square.

Keywords: comfort in outer space, urban environment, scenarisation, vegetation, water ponds, public square, simulation

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Authors: Samuel Olajide Babawale, Jonathan Bridge

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Natural Flood Management (NFM) is promoted as part of sustainable flood management (SFM) in response to climate change adaptation. Stakeholder engagement is central to this approach, and current trends are progressively moving towards a collaborative learning approach where stakeholder participation is perceived as one of the indicators of sustainable development. Within this methodology, participation embraces a diversity of knowledge and values underpinned by a philosophy of empowerment, equity, trust, and learning. To identify barriers to NFM uptake, there is a need for a new understanding of how stakeholder participation could be enhanced to benefit individual and community resilience within SFM. This is crucial in light of climate change threats and scientific reliability concerns. In contributing to this new understanding, this research evaluated the proposed interventions on six (6) UK NFM in a catchment known as the Sheffield Lakeland Partnership Area with reference to the Environment Agency Working with Natural Processes (WWNP) Potentials/Opportunities. Three of the opportunities, namely Run-off Attenuation Potential of 1%, Run-off Attenuation Potential of 3.3% and Riparian Woodland Potential, were modeled. In all the models, the interventions, though they have been proposed or already in place, are not in agreement with the data presented by EA WWNP. Findings show some institutional weaknesses, which are seen to inhibit the development of adequate flood management solutions locally with damaging implications for vulnerable communities. The gap in communication from practitioners poses a challenge to the implementation of real flood mitigating measures that align with the lead agency’s nationally accepted measures which are identified as not feasible by the farm management officers within this context. Findings highlight a dominant top-bottom approach to management with very minimal indication of local interactions. Current WWNP opportunities have been termed as not realistic by the people directly involved in the daily management of the farms, with less emphasis on prevention and mitigation. The targeted approach suggested by the EA WWNP is set against adaptive flood management and community development. The study explores dimensions of participation using the self-reliance and self-help approach to develop a methodology that facilitates reflections of currently institutionalized practices and the need to reshape spaces of interactions to enable empowered and meaningful participation. Stakeholder engagement and resilience planning underpin this research. The findings of the study suggest different agencies have different perspectives on “community participation”. It also shows communities in the case study area appear to be least influential, denied a real chance of discussing their situations and influencing the decisions. This is against the background that the communities are in the most productive regions, contributing massively to national food supplies. The results are discussed concerning practical implications for addressing interagency partnerships and conducting grassroots collaborations that empower local communities and seek solutions to sustainable development challenges. This study takes a critical look into the challenges and progress made locally in sustainable flood risk management and adaptation to climate change by the United Kingdom towards achieving the global 2030 agenda for sustainable development.

Keywords: natural flood management, sustainable flood management, sustainable development, working with natural processes, environment agency, run-off attenuation potential, climate change

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Authors: Donghun Jeong, Somyoung Shin, Yeoil Yun

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A large-scale traffic accident refers to an accident in which more than three people die or more than thirty people are dead or injured. In order to prevent a large-scale traffic accident from causing a big loss of lives or establish effective improvement measures, it is important to analyze accident situations in-depth and understand the effects of major accident variables on an accident. This study aims to analyze the contribution of individual accident variables to accident results, based on the accurate reconstruction of traffic accidents using PC-Crash’s Multi-Body, which is an accident reconstruction program, and simulation of each scenario. Multi-Body system of PC-Crash accident reconstruction program is used for multi-body accident reconstruction that shows motions in diverse directions that were not approached previously. MB System is to design and reproduce a form of body, which shows realistic motions, using several bodies. Targeting the 'freight truck cargo drop accident around the Changwon Tunnel' that happened in November 2017, this study conducted a simulation of the freight truck cargo drop accident and analyzed the contribution of individual accident majors. Then on the basis of the driving speed, cargo load, and stacking method, six scenarios were devised. The simulation analysis result displayed that the freight car was driven at a speed of 118km/h(speed limit: 70km/h) right before the accident, carried 196 oil containers with a weight of 7,880kg (maximum load: 4,600kg) and was not fully equipped with anchoring equipment that could prevent a drop of cargo. The vehicle speed, cargo load, and cargo anchoring equipment were major accident variables, and the accident contribution analysis results of individual variables are as follows. When the freight car only obeyed the speed limit, the scattering distance of oil containers decreased by 15%, and the number of dropped oil containers decreased by 39%. When the freight car only obeyed the cargo load, the scattering distance of oil containers decreased by 5%, and the number of dropped oil containers decreased by 34%. When the freight car obeyed both the speed limit and cargo load, the scattering distance of oil containers fell by 38%, and the number of dropped oil containers fell by 64%. The analysis result of each scenario revealed that the overspeed and excessive cargo load of the freight car contributed to the dispersion of accident damage; in the case of a truck, which did not allow a fall of cargo, there was a different type of accident when driven too fast and carrying excessive cargo load, and when the freight car obeyed the speed limit and cargo load, there was the lowest possibility of causing an accident.

Keywords: accident reconstruction, large-scale traffic accident, PC-Crash, MB system

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Authors: Stepan Kuchar, Martin Golasowski, Radim Vavrik, Michal Podhoranyi, Boris Sir, Jan Martinovic

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The main goal of this article is to describe the online flood monitoring and prediction system Floreon+ primarily developed for the Moravian-Silesian region in the Czech Republic and the basic process it uses for running automatic rainfall-runoff and hydrodynamic simulations along with their calibration and uncertainty modeling. It takes a long time to execute such process sequentially, which is not acceptable in the online scenario, so the use of high-performance computing environment is proposed for all parts of the process to shorten their duration. Finally, a case study on the Ostravice river catchment is presented that shows actual durations and their gain from the parallel implementation.

Keywords: flood prediction process, high performance computing, online flood prediction system, parallelization

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Authors: Lican Guzmán, José Manuel Lattus, Mariana Cervetto, Mauricio Calderón

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Today the estimation of effects produced by climate change in high Andean wetland environments is confronted by big challenges. This study provides a way to an analysis by remote sensing how some Ambiental aspects have evolved on the Maricunga salt flat in the last 30 years, divided into the summer and winter seasons, and if global warming is conditioning these changes. The first step to achieve this goal was the recompilation of geological, hydrological, and morphometric antecedents to ensure an adequate contextualization of its environmental parameters. After this, software processing and analysis of Landsat 5,7 and 8 satellite imagery was required to get the vegetation, water, surface temperature, and soil moisture indexes (NDVI, NDWI, LST, and SMI) in order to see how their spatial-temporal conditions have evolved in the area of study during recent decades. Results show a tendency of regular increase in surface temperature and disponibility of water during both seasons but with slight drought periods during summer. Soil moisture factor behaves as a constant during the dry season and with a tendency to increase during wintertime. Vegetation analysis shows an areal and quality increase of its surface sustained through time that is consistent with the increase of water supply and temperature in the basin mentioned before. Roughly, the effects of climate change can be described as positive for the Maricunga salt flat; however, the lack of exact correlation in dates of the imagery available to remote sensing analysis could be a factor for misleading in the interpretation of results.

Keywords: global warming, geology, SIG, Atacama Desert, Salar de Maricunga, environmental geology, NDVI, SMI, LST, NDWI, Landsat

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Authors: Charlotte Lülf

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Migration flows, resulting from war, climate change or economic crisis cannot be tackled by single states but need to be addressed as a transnational and international responsibility. The traditional architecture surrounding the work of the UNHCR and the 1951 Convention, however, is not equipped to deal with these challenges. Widely excluded from legal protection are people not individually persecuted for the statutory criteria, people that flee from the indiscriminate effects of an armed conflict as well as people fleeing natural disasters. With the lack of explicit legal protection and the political reluctance of nation states worldwide to extend their commitment in new asylum laws, the judiciary must be put in focus: it plays a unique role in interpreting and potentially expanding the application of existing regulations. This paper as part of an ongoing Ph.D. Project deals with the current and partly contradicting approaches to the protection of war- and climate refugees. Changing jurisprudential practice of national and regional courts will be assessed, as will be their dialogue to interpret the international obligations of human rights law, migration laws, and asylum laws in an interacting world. In recent judgments refoulment to an armed conflict as well as countries without adequate disaster relief or health care was argued as violating fundamental human and asylum law rights and therefore prohibited – even for applicants without refugee status: The first step towards access to subsidiary protection could herewith be established. Can one observe similar developments in other parts of the world? This paper will evaluate the role of the judiciary to define, redefine and potentially expand protection for people seeking refuge from armed conflicts and natural disasters.

Keywords: human rights law, asylum-seekers, displacement, migration

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