Search results for: group decision making

Authors: Wayne Tarrant, Ethan Petersen

Abstract:

The concept of a flat tax goes back to at least the Biblical tithe. A progressive income tax was first vociferously espoused in a small, but famous, pamphlet in 1848 (although England had an emergency progressive tax for war costs prior to this). Within a few years many countries had adopted the progressive structure. The flat tax was only reinstated in some small countries and British protectorates until Mart Laar was elected Prime Minister of Estonia in 1992. Since Estonia’s adoption of the flat tax in 1993, many other formerly Communist countries have likewise abandoned progressive income taxes. Economists had expectations of what would happen when a flat tax was enacted, but very little work has been done on actually measuring the effect. With a testbed of 21 countries in this region that currently have a flat tax, much comparison is possible. Several countries have retained progressive taxes, giving an opportunity for contrast. There are also the cases of Czech Republic and Slovakia, which have adopted and later abandoned the flat tax. Further, with over 20 years’ worth of economic history in some flat tax countries, we can begin to do some serious longitudinal study. In this paper we consider many economic variables to determine if there are statistically significant differences from before to after the adoption of a flat tax. We consider unemployment rates, tax receipts, GDP growth, Gini coefficients, and market data where the data are available. Comparisons are made through the use of event studies and time series methods. The results are mixed, but we draw statistically significant conclusions about some effects. We also look at the different implementations of the flat tax. In some countries there are equal income and corporate tax rates. In others the income tax has a lower rate, while in others the reverse is true. Each of these sends a clear message to individuals and corporations. The policy makers surely have a desired effect in mind. We group countries with similar policies, try to determine if the intended effect actually occurred, and then report the results. This is a work in progress, and we welcome the suggestion of variables to consider. Further, some of the data from before the fall of the Iron Curtain are suspect. Since there are new ruling regimes in these countries, the methods of computing different statistical measures has changed. Although we first look at the raw data as reported, we also attempt to account for these changes. We show which data seem to be fictional and suggest ways to infer the needed statistics from other data. These results are reported beside those on the reported data. Since there is debate about taxation structure, this paper can help inform policymakers of change the flat tax has caused in other countries. The work shows some strengths and weaknesses of a flat tax structure. Moreover, it provides beginnings of a scientific analysis of the flat tax in practice rather than having discussion based solely upon theory and conjecture.

Keywords: flat tax, financial markets, GDP, unemployment rate, Gini coefficient

Procedia PDF Downloads 330

Authors: Federico Garrido, Mostafa El Hayani, Ahmed Shams

Abstract:

The exploration of the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) in architecture is still embryonic, however, its latent capacity to change design disciplines is significant. 'Synthetic Classism' is a research project that questions the underlying aspects of classically organized architecture not just in aesthetic terms but also from a geometrical and morphological point of view, intending to generate new architectural information using historical examples as source material. The main aim of this paper is to explore the uses of artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithms in architectural design while creating a coherent narrative to be contained within a design process. The purpose is twofold: on one hand, to develop and train machine learning algorithms to produce architectural information of small pavilions and on the other, to synthesize new information from previous architectural drawings. These algorithms intend to 'interpret' graphical information from each pavilion and then generate new information from it. The procedure, once these algorithms are trained, is the following: parting from a line profile, a synthetic 'front view' of a pavilion is generated, then using it as a source material, an isometric view is created from it, and finally, a top view is produced. Thanks to GAN algorithms, it is also possible to generate Front and Isometric views without any graphical input as well. The final intention of the research is to produce isometric views out of historical information, such as the pavilions from Sebastiano Serlio, James Gibbs, or John Soane. The idea is to create and interpret new information not just in terms of historical reconstruction but also to explore AI as a novel tool in the narrative of a creative design process. This research also challenges the idea of the role of algorithmic design associated with efficiency or fitness while embracing the possibility of a creative collaboration between artificial intelligence and a human designer. Hence the double feature of this research, both analytical and creative, first by synthesizing images based on a given dataset and then by generating new architectural information from historical references. We find that the possibility of creatively understand and manipulate historic (and synthetic) information will be a key feature in future innovative design processes. Finally, the main question that we propose is whether an AI could be used not just to create an original and innovative group of simple buildings but also to explore the possibility of fostering a novel architectural sensibility grounded on the specificities on the architectural dataset, either historic, human-made or synthetic.

Keywords: architecture, central pavilions, classicism, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Deniz Peksen

Abstract:

This thesis aims to predict trend movement of closing price of stock and to maximize portfolio by utilizing the predictions. In this context, the study aims to define a stock portfolio strategy from models created by using Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest. Recently, predicting the trend of stock price has gained a significance role in making buy and sell decisions and generating returns with investment strategies formed by machine learning basis decisions. There are plenty of studies in the literature on the prediction of stock prices in capital markets using machine learning methods but most of them focus on closing prices instead of the direction of price trend. Our study differs from literature in terms of target definition. Ours is a classification problem which is focusing on the market trend in next 20 trading days. To predict trend direction, fourteen years of data were used for training. Following three years were used for validation. Finally, last three years were used for testing. Training data are between 2002-06-18 and 2016-12-30 Validation data are between 2017-01-02 and 2019-12-31 Testing data are between 2020-01-02 and 2022-03-17 We determine Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate as benchmarks which we should outperform. We compared our machine learning basis portfolio return on test data with return of Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate. We assessed our model performance with the help of roc-auc score and lift charts. We use logistic regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest with grid search approach to fine-tune hyper-parameters. As a result of the empirical study, the existence of uptrend and downtrend of five stocks could not be predicted by the models. When we use these predictions to define buy and sell decisions in order to generate model-based-portfolio, model-based-portfolio fails in test dataset. It was found that Model-based buy and sell decisions generated a stock portfolio strategy whose returns can not outperform non-model portfolio strategies on test dataset. We found that any effort for predicting the trend which is formulated on stock price is a challenge. We found same results as Random Walk Theory claims which says that stock price or price changes are unpredictable. Our model iterations failed on test dataset. Although, we built up several good models on validation dataset, we failed on test dataset. We implemented Random Forest, Gradient Boosting and Logistic Regression. We discovered that complex models did not provide advantage or additional performance while comparing them with Logistic Regression. More complexity did not lead us to reach better performance. Using a complex model is not an answer to figure out the stock-related prediction problem. Our approach was to predict the trend instead of the price. This approach converted our problem into classification. However, this label approach does not lead us to solve the stock prediction problem and deny or refute the accuracy of the Random Walk Theory for the stock price.

Keywords: stock prediction, portfolio optimization, data science, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 71

Authors: Mohammad Hossein Pazandeh, Monir Doudi, Sona Rostampour Yasouri

Abstract:

Irregular consumption of current antibiotic makes increases of antibiotic resistance between urin pathogens on all worlds. This study selected based on this great community problem. The aim of this study was the biosynthesis of silver nanoparticles from Zataria multiflora extract and then to investigate its antibacterial effect on gram-negative bacilli common in Urinary Tract Infections (UTI) and MDR. The plant used in the present research was Zataria multiflora whose extract was prepared through Soxhlet extraction method. Green synthesis condition of silver nanoparticles was investigated in terms of three parameters including the extract amount, concentration of silver nitrate salt, and temperature. The seizes of nanoparticles were determined by Zetasizer. In order to identify synthesized silver nanoparticles Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) and X-ray Diffraction (XRD) methods were used. For evaluating the antibacterial effects of nanoparticles synthesized through biological method different concentrations of silver nanoparticles were studied on 140 cases of Muliple Drug Resistance (MDR) bacteria strains Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Enterobacter aerogenes, Proteus vulgaris,Citrobacter freundii, Acinetobacter bumanii and Pseudomonas aeruginosa, (each genus of bacteria, 20 samples), which all were MDR and cause urinary tract infections , for identification of bacteria were used of Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) test and laboratory methods (Agar well diffusion and Microdilution methods) to assess their sensitivity to Nanoparticles. The data were analyzed using SPSS software by nonparametric Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney tests. Significant results were found about the effects of silver nitrate concentration, different amounts of Zataria multiflora extract, and temperature on nanoparticles; that is, by increasing the concentration of silver nitrate, extract amount, and temperature, the sizes of synthesized nanoparticles declined. However, the effect of above mentioned factors on particles diffusion index was not significant. Based on the TEM results, particles were mainly spherical shape with a diameter range of 25 to 50 nm. The results of XRD Analysis indicated the formation of Nanostructures and Nanocrystals of silver.. The obtained results of antibacterial effects of different concentrations of silver nanoparticles on according to agar well diffusion and microdilution method, biologically synthesized nanoparticles showed 1000 mg /ml highest and lowest mean inhibition zone diameter in E.coli , Acinetobacter bumanii 23 and 15mm, respectively. MIC was observed for all of bacteria 125mg/ml and for Acinetobacter bumanii 250mg/ml.Comparing the growth inhibitory effect of chemically synthesized Nanoparticles and biologically synthesized Nanoparticles showed that in the chemical method the highest growth inhibition belonged to the concentration of 62.5 mg /ml. The inhibitory effect on the growth all of bacteria causes of urine infection and MDR was observed and by increasing silver ion concentration in Nanoparticles, antibacterial activity increased. Generally, the biological synthesis can be considered an efficient way not only in making Nanoparticles but also for having anti-bacterial properties. It is more biocompatible and may be possess less toxicity than the Nanoparticles synthesized chemically.

Keywords: biosynthesis, MDR bacteria, silver nanoparticles, UTI

Procedia PDF Downloads 36

Authors: Ashutosh Biswas, Poonam Coushic, Kalpana Baruah, Paras Singla, A. C. Dhariwal, Pawana Murthy

Abstract:

Burden of Dengue in Northern India Ashutosh Biswas, Poonam Coushic, Kalpana Baruah, Paras Singla, AC Dhariwal, Pawana Murthy. All India Institute of Medical Sciences, NVBDCP,WHO New Delhi, India Aim: This study was conducted to estimate the burden of dengue in capital region of India. Methodology:Seropositivity of Dengue for IgM Ab, NS1 Ag and IgG Ab were performed among the blood donors’ samples from blood bank, those who were coming to donate blood for the requirement of blood for the admitted patients in hospital. Blood samplles were collected through out the year to estimate seroprevalance of dengue with or without outbreak season. All the subjects were asymptomatic at the time of blood donation. Results: A total of 1558 donors were screened for the study. On the basis of inclusion/ exclusion criteria, we enrolled 1531subjects for the study.Twenty seven donors were excluded from the study, out of which 6 were detected HIV +ve, 11 were positive for HBsAg and 10 were found positive for HCV.Mean age was 30.51 ± 7.75 years.Of 1531subjects, 18 (1.18%) had a past history of typhoid fever, 28 (1.83%) had chikungunya fever, 9 (0.59%) had malaria and 43 subjects (2.81%) had a past history of symptomatic dengue infection.About 2.22% (34) of subjects were found to have sero-positive for NS1 Ag with a peak point prevalence of 7.14% in the month of October and sero-positive of IgM Ab was observed about 5.49% (84)with a peak point prevalence of 14.29% in the month of October. Sero-prevalnce of IgGwas detected in about 64.21% (983) of subjects. Conclusion: Acute asymptomatic dengue (NS1 Ag+ve) was observed in 7.14%, as the subjects were having no symptoms at the time of sampling. This group of subjects poses a potential public health threat for transmitting dengue infection through blood transfusion (TTI) in the community as evident by presence of active viral infection due to NS1Ag +VE. Therefore a policy may be implemented in the blood bank for testing NS1 Ag to look for active dengue infection for preventing dengue transmission through blood transfusion (TTI). Acute or Subacute dengue infection ( IgM Ab+ve) was observed from 5.49% to 14.29% which is a peak point prevalence in the month of October. About 64.21% of the population were immunized by natural dengue infection ( IgG Ab+ve) in theNorthern province of India. This might be helpful for implementing the dengue vaccine in a region. Blood samples in blood banks should be tested for dengue before transfusion to any other person to prevent transfusion transmitted dengue infection as we estimated upto 7.14% positivity of NS1 Ag in our study which indicates presence of dengue virus in blood donors’ samples.

Keywords: Dengue Burden, Seroprevalance, Asymptomatic dengue, Dengue transmission through blood transfusion

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Suhayla Reda Al-Banai

Abstract:

Problem Statement: Tooth whitening was used for over one hundred and fifty year. The question concerning the whiteness of teeth is a complex one since tooth whiteness will vary from individual to individual, dependent on age and culture, etc. Tooth whitening following treatment may be dependent on the type of whitening system used to whiten the teeth. There are a few side-effects to the process, and these include tooth sensitivity and gingival irritation. Some individuals may experience no pain or sensitivity following the procedure. Purpose: To systematically review the available published literature until 31st December 2021 to identify all relevant studies for inclusion and to determine whether there was any evidence demonstrating that the application of whitening procedures resulted in the tooth sensitivity. Aim: Systematically review the available published works of literature to identify all relevant studies for inclusion and to determine any evidence demonstrating that application of 10% & 15% carbamide peroxide in tooth whitening procedures resulted in tooth sensitivity. Material and Methods: Following a review of 70 relevant papers from searching both electronic databases (OVID MEDLINE and PUBMED) and hand searching of relevant written journals, 49 studies were identified, 42 papers were subsequently excluded, and 7 studies were finally accepted for inclusion. The extraction of data for inclusion was conducted by two reviewers. The main outcome measures were the methodology and assessment used by investigators to evaluate tooth sensitivity in tooth whitening studies. Results: The reported evaluation of tooth sensitivity during tooth whitening procedures was based on the subjective response of subjects rather than a recognized methodology for evaluating. One of the problems in evaluating was the lack of homogeneity in study design. Seven studies were included. The studies included essential features namely: randomized group, placebo controls, doubleblind and single-blind. Drop-out was obtained from two of included studies. Three of the included studies reported sensitivity at the baseline visit. Two of the included studies mentioned the exclusion criteria Conclusions: The results were inconclusive due to: Limited number of included studies, the study methodology, and evaluation of DS reported. Tooth whitening procedures adversely affect both hard and soft tissues in the oral cavity. Sideeffects are mild and transient in nature. Whitening solutions with greater than 10% carbamide peroxide causes more tooth sensitivity. Studies using nightguard vital bleaching with 10% carbamide peroxide reported two side effects tooth sensitivity and gingival irritation, although tooth sensitivity was more prevalent than gingival irritation

Keywords: dentine, sensitivity, bleaching, carbamide peroxde

Procedia PDF Downloads 63

Authors: Axel Thallemer, Aleksandar Kostadinov, Abel Fam, Alex Teo

Abstract:

For centuries, the forming processes in nature served as a source of inspiration for both architects and designers. It seems as most human artifacts are based on ideas which stem from the observation of the biological world and its principles of growth. As a fact, in the cultural history of Homo faber, materials have been mostly used in their solid state: From hand axe to computer mouse, the principle of employing matter has not changed ever since the first creation. In the scope of history only recently and by the help of additive-generative fabrication processes through Computer Aided Design (CAD), designers were enabled to deconstruct solid artifacts into an outer skin and an internal lattice structure. The intention behind this approach is to create a new topology which reduces resources and integrates functions into an additively manufactured component. However, looking at the currently employed lattice structures, it is very clear that those lattice structure geometries have not been thoroughly designed, but rather taken out of basic-geometry libraries which are usually provided by the CAD. In the here presented study, a group of 20 industrial design students created new and unique lattice structures using natural paragons as their models. The selected natural models comprise both the animate and inanimate world, with examples ranging from the spiraling of narwhal tusks, off-shooting of mangrove roots, minimal surfaces of soap bubbles, up to the rhythmical arrangement of molecular geometry, like in the case of SiOC (Carbon-Rich Silicon Oxicarbide). This ideation process leads to a design of a geometric cell, which served as a basic module for the lattice structure, whereby the cell was created in visual analogy to its respective natural model. The spatial lattices were fabricated additively in mostly [X]3 by [Y]3 by [Z]3 units’ volumes using selective powder bed melting in polyamide with (z-axis) 50 mm and 100 µm resolution and subdued to mechanical testing of their elastic zone in a biomedical laboratory. The results demonstrate that additively manufactured lattice structures can acquire different properties when they are designed in analogy to natural models. Several of the lattices displayed the ability to store and return kinetic energy, while others revealed a structural failure which can be exploited for purposes where a controlled collapse of a structure is required. This discovery allows for various new applications of functional lattice structures within industrially created objects.

Keywords: bio-inspired, biomimetic, lattice structures, additive manufacturing

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: Charlotte K. Lee, Henrique R. N. Aguiar, Ralph Smith, James Baldock, Sam Botchey

Abstract:

Background: Femoral neck stress fractures (FNSF) are uncommon, making up 1 to 7.2% of stress fractures in healthy subjects. FNSFs are prevalent in young women, military recruits, endurance athletes, and individuals with energy deficiency syndrome or female athlete triad. Presentation is often non-specific and is often misdiagnosed following the initial examination. There is limited research addressing the return–to–activity time after FNSF. Previous studies have demonstrated prognostic time predictions based on various imaging techniques. Here, (1) OxSport clinic FNSF practice standards are retrospectively reviewed, (2) FNSF cohort demographics are examined, (3) Regression models were used to predict return–to–activity prognosis and consequently determine bone stress risk factors. Methods: Patients with a diagnosis of FNSF attending Oxsport clinic between 01/06/2020 and 01/01/2020 were selected from the Rheumatology Assessment Database Innovation in Oxford (RhADiOn) and OxSport Stress Fracture Database (n = 14). (1) Clinical practice was audited against five criteria based on local and National Institute for Health Care Excellence guidance, with a 100% standard. (2) Demographics of the FNSF cohort were examined with Student’s T-Test. (3) Lastly, linear regression and Random Forest regression models were used on this patient cohort to predict return–to–activity time. Consequently, an analysis of feature importance was conducted after fitting each model. Results: OxSport clinical practice met standard (100%) in 3/5 criteria. The criteria not met were patient waiting times and documentation of all bone stress risk factors. Importantly, analysis of patient demographics showed that of the population with complete bone stress risk factor assessments, 53% were positive for modifiable bone stress risk factors. Lastly, linear regression analysis was utilized to identify demographic factors that predicted return–to–activity time [R2 = 79.172%; average error 0.226]. This analysis identified four key variables that predicted return-to-activity time: vitamin D level, total hip DEXA T value, femoral neck DEXA T value, and history of an eating disorder/disordered eating. Furthermore, random forest regression models were employed for this task [R2 = 97.805%; average error 0.024]. Analysis of the importance of each feature again identified a set of 4 variables, 3 of which matched with the linear regression analysis (vitamin D level, total hip DEXA T value, and femoral neck DEXA T value) and the fourth: age. Conclusion: OxSport clinical practice could be improved by more comprehensively evaluating bone stress risk factors. The importance of this evaluation is demonstrated by the population found positive for these risk factors. Using this cohort, potential bone stress risk factors that significantly impacted return-to-activity prognosis were predicted using regression models.

Keywords: eating disorder, bone stress risk factor, femoral neck stress fracture, vitamin D

Procedia PDF Downloads 173

Authors: Yi Wang, Greg Hearn, Terry Flew

Abstract:

In order to understand how cultural innovation occurs, this paper explores the interaction in Shenzhen of China between universities, creative industries, and government in creative economic using the Triple Helix framework. During the past two decades, Triple Helix has been recognized as a new theory of innovation to inform and guide policy-making in national and regional development. Universities and governments around the world, especially in developing countries, have taken actions to strengthen connections with creative industries to develop regional economies. To date research based on the Triple Helix model has focused primarily on Science and Technology collaborations, largely ignoring other fields. Hence, there is an opportunity for work to be done in seeking to better understand how the Triple Helix framework might apply in the field of creative industries and what knowledge might be gleaned from such an undertaking. Since the late 1990s, the concept of ‘creative industries’ has been introduced as policy and academic discourse. The development of creative industries policy by city agencies has improved city wealth creation and economic capital. It claims to generate a ‘new economy’ of enterprise dynamics and activities for urban renewal through the arts and digital media, via knowledge transfer in knowledge-based economies. Creative industries also involve commercial inputs to the creative economy, to dynamically reshape the city into an innovative culture. In particular, this paper will concentrate on creative spaces (incubators, digital tech parks, maker spaces, art hubs) where academic, industry and government interact. China has sought to enhance the brand of their manufacturing industry in cultural policy. It aims to transfer the image of ‘Made in China’ to ‘Created in China’ as well as to give Chinese brands more international competitiveness in a global economy. Shenzhen is a notable example in China as an international knowledge-based city following this path. In 2009, the Shenzhen Municipal Government proposed the city slogan ‘Build a Leading Cultural City”’ to show the ambition of government’s strong will to develop Shenzhen’s cultural capacity and creativity. The vision of Shenzhen is to become a cultural innovation center, a regional cultural center and an international cultural city. However, there has been a lack of attention to the triple helix interactions in the creative industries in China. In particular, there is limited knowledge about how interactions in creative spaces co-location within triple helix networks significantly influence city based innovation. That is, the roles of participating institutions need to be better understood. Thus, this paper discusses the interplay between university, creative industries and government in Shenzhen. Secondary analysis and documentary analysis will be used as methods in an effort to practically ground and illustrate this theoretical framework. Furthermore, this paper explores how are creative spaces being used to implement Triple Helix in creative industries. In particular, the new combination of resources generated from the synthesized consolidation and interactions through the institutions. This study will thus provide an innovative lens to understand the components, relationships and functions that exist within creative spaces by applying Triple Helix framework to the creative industries.

Keywords: cultural policy, creative industries, creative city, triple Helix

Procedia PDF Downloads 188

Authors: Ghada Abo-Zaid

Abstract:

The main objective of this study was to examine the association between the elevated level of CRP and incidence of hypertension before and after adjusting by age, BMI, gender, SES, smoking, diabetes, cholesterol LDL and cholesterol HDL and to determine whether the association were differ by race. Method: Cross sectional data for participations from age 17 to age 74 years who included in The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 1999 to 2010 were analysed. CRP level was classified into three categories ( > 3mg/L, between 1mg/LL and 3mg/L, and < 3 mg/L). Blood pressure categorization was done using JNC 7 algorithm Hypertension defined as either systolic blood pressure (SBP) of 140 mmHg or more and disystolic blood pressure (DBP) of 90mmHg or greater, otherwise a self-reported prior diagnosis by a physician. Pre-hypertension was defined as (139 > SBP > 120 or 89 > DPB > 80). Multinominal regression model was undertaken to measure the association between CRP level and hypertension. Results: In univariable models, CRP concentrations > 3 mg/L were associated with a 73% greater risk of incident hypertension compared with CRP concentrations < 1 mg/L (Hypertension: odds ratio [OR] = 1.73; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.50-1.99). Ethnic comparisons showed that American Mexican had the highest risk of incident hypertension (odds ratio [OR] = 2.39; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.21-2.58).This risk was statistically insignificant, however, either after controlling by other variables (Hypertension: OR = 0.75; 95% CI, 0.52-1.08,), or categorized by race [American Mexican: odds ratio [OR] = 1.58; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0,58-4.26, Other Hispanic: odds ratio [OR] = 0.87; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.19-4.42, Non-Hispanic white: odds ratio [OR] = 0.90; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.50-1.59, Non-Hispanic Black: odds ratio [OR] = 0.44; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.22-0,87]. The same results were found for pre-hypertension, and the Non-Hispanic black showed the highest significant risk for Pre-Hypertension (odds ratio [OR] = 1.60; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.26-2.03). When CRP concentrations were between 1.0-3.0 mg/L, in an unadjusted models prehypertension was associated with higher likelihood of elevated CRP (OR = 1.37; 95% CI, 1.15-1.62). The same relationship was maintained in Non-Hispanic white, Non-Hispanic black, and other race (Non-Hispanic white: OR = 1.24; 95% CI, 1.03-1.48, Non-Hispanic black: OR = 1.60; 95% CI, 1.27-2.03, other race: OR = 2.50; 95% CI, 1.32-4.74) while the association was insignificant with American Mexican and other Hispanic. In the adjusted model, the relationship between CRP and prehypertension were no longer available. In contrary, Hypertension was not independently associated with elevated CRP, and the results were the same after grouped by race or adjusted by the confounder variables. The same results were obtained when SBP or DBP were on a continuous measure. Conclusions: This study confirmed the existence of an association between hypertension, prehypertension and elevated level of CRP, however this association was no longer available after adjusting by other variables. Ethic group differences were statistically significant at the univariable models, while it disappeared after controlling by other variables.

Keywords: CRP, hypertension, ethnicity, NHANES, blood pressure

Procedia PDF Downloads 405

Authors: Warsi A. Ibrahim, Qureshi A. Ambrina, Younus M. Anjum

Abstract:

Introduction: Oral lesions related to commercially available Smokeless Tobacco (ST), such as, Pan, Gutka, Mahwa, Naswar is considered a serious challenge for dental health care providers in Pakistan. Majority of labored Pakistani population consume ST, where public transporters and drivers are no exception. It was necessary to identify individuals of this particular population group and screen their oral health and early signs of pre-cancerous lesions so that appropriate preventive measures could be taken to reduce the burden on health providers. Aim of Study: To estimate Prevalence of ST consumption and perception of use, and to evaluate Oral Health status among public drivers of Karachi. Material & methods: A cross-sectional study survey was conducted over duration of 2 months, through convenient sampling. Sample size (n=615) of public drivers (age > 18 years) all over Karachi was gathered. A structured proforma was used to record socio-demographics, addiction profile, perception of use and oral health status (oral lesions, oral sub-mucosal fibrosis and dental caries) of study participants. Data was entered and analyzed using SPSS version 16.0 using descriptive statistics only. Results: Prevalence of ST consumption among the study participants was figured to 92.5%. Out of these almost 70% suffered from one or the other form of oral lesion(s). Four major types of ST consumption were observed out of which 60 % of oral lesion were related to Gutka chewers showing early signs of oral cancer. In addition, occurrence of Oral sub-mucosal fibrosis (OSF) was found to be significantly high around 54.8%. Overall dental caries status was also high, showing on an average 5 teeth of an individual were decayed, missing or filled deviating from WHO normal criteria (mean < 3). It was thus proven from the study that public drivers relied on oral tobacco consumption because it helps them ‘Improve consciousness’ (p-value: < 0.01; using chi-square test). Multivariate analysis showed that there were higher prevalence of smokeless tobacco among highway drivers versus local drivers (A.O.R: 2.82 [0.83-9.61], p-value: < 0.01) Conclusion: Smokeless tobacco (ST) consumption has a direct effect on oral health. However, the type of ST, the duration of consumption are factors which are directly related to the severity. Moreover, Gutka may be considered as having most lethal effects on oral health which may lead to oral cancer and affect individual’s quality of life. Specific preventive programs must be undertaken to reduce the consumption of Gutka among public transporters and drivers.

Keywords: smokeless tobacco, oral lesions, drivers, public transporters

Procedia PDF Downloads 301

Authors: Sascha E. Oswald, Jan Busch

Abstract:

The in-situ dechlorination of contamination by chlorinated solvents in groundwater via zero-valent iron (nZVI) is potentially an efficient and prompt remediation method. A key requirement is that nZVI has to be introduced in the subsurface in a way that substantial quantities of the contaminants are actually brought into direct contact with the nZVI in the aquifer. Thus it could be a more flexible and precise alternative to permeable reactive barrier techniques using granular iron. However, nZVI are often limited by fast agglomeration and sedimentation in colloidal suspensions, even more so in the aquifer sediments, which is a handicap for the application to treat source zones or contaminant plumes. Colloid-supported nZVI show promising characteristics to overcome these limitations and Carbo-Iron Colloids is a newly developed composite material aiming for that. The nZVI is built onto finely ground activated carbon of about a micrometer diameter acting as a carrier for it. The Carbo-Iron Colloids are often suspended with a polyanionic stabilizer, and carboxymethyl cellulose is one with good properties for that. We have investigated the transport behavior of Carbo-Iron Colloids (CIC) on different scales and for different conditions to assess its mobility in aquifer sediments as a key property for making its application feasible. The transport properties were tested in one-dimensional laboratory columns, a two-dimensional model aquifer and also an injection experiment in the field. Those experiments were accompanied by non-invasive tomographic investigations of the transport and filtration processes of CIC suspensions. The laboratory experiments showed that a larger part of the CIC can travel at least scales of meters for favorable but realistic conditions. Partly this is even similar to a dissolved tracer. For less favorable conditions this can be much smaller and in all cases a particular fraction of the CIC injected is retained mainly shortly after entering the porous medium. As field experiment a horizontal flow field was established, between two wells with a distance of 5 meters, in a confined, shallow aquifer at a contaminated site in North German lowlands. First a tracer test was performed and a basic model was set up to define the design of the CIC injection experiment. Then CIC suspension was introduced into the aquifer at the injection well while the second well was pumped and samples taken there to observe the breakthrough of CIC. This was based on direct visual inspection and total particle and iron concentrations of water samples analyzed in the laboratory later. It could be concluded that at least 12% of the CIC amount injected reached the extraction well in due course, some of it traveling distances larger than 10 meters in the non-uniform dipole flow field. This demonstrated that these CIC particles have a substantial mobility for reaching larger volumes of a contaminated aquifer and for interacting there by their reactivity with dissolved contaminants in the pore space. Therefore they seem suited well for groundwater remediation by in-situ formation of reactive barriers for chlorinated solvent plumes or even source removal.

Keywords: carbo-iron colloids, chlorinated solvents, in-situ remediation, particle transport, plume treatment

Procedia PDF Downloads 240

Authors: Daifeng Hao, Guang Feng, Jingfeng Zhao, Tao Li, Xiaoye Tuo

Abstract:

Objective: To retrospectively analyze the clinical characteristics of incision infection with sternal osteomyelitis sinus tract after cardiac surgery and the operation method and therapeutic effect of filling and repairing with activated PRP gel. Methods: From March 2011 to October 2022, 142 cases of incision infection after cardiac surgery with sternal osteomyelitis sinus were retrospectively analyzed, and the causes of poor wound healing after surgery, wound characteristics, perioperative wound management were summarized. Treatment during operation, collection and storage process of autologous PRP before debridement surgery, PRP filling repair and activation method after debridement surgery, effect of anticoagulant drugs on surgery, postoperative complications and average wound healing time, etc.. Results: Among the cases in this group, 53.3% underwent coronary artery bypass grafting, 36.8% underwent artificial heart valve replacement, 8.2% underwent aortic artificial vessel replacement, and 1.7% underwent allogeneic heart transplantation. The main causes of poor incision healing were suture reaction, fat liquefaction, osteoporosis, diabetes, and metal allergy in sequence. The wound is characterized by an infected sinus tract. Before the operation, 100-150ml of PRP with 4 times the physiological concentration was collected separately with a blood component separation device. After sinus debridement, PRP was perfused to fill the bony defect in the middle of the sternum, activated with thrombin freeze-dried powder and calcium gluconate injection to form a gel, and the outer skin and subcutaneous tissue were sutured freely. 62.9% of patients discontinued warfarin during the perioperative period, and 37.1% of patients maintained warfarin treatment. There was no significant difference in the incidence of postoperative wound hematoma. The average postoperative wound healing time was 12.9±4.7 days, and there was no obvious postoperative complication. Conclusions: Application of activated PRP gel to fill incision infection with sternal osteomyelitis sinus after cardiac surgery has a less surgical injury and satisfactory and stable curative effect. It can completely replace the previously used pectoralis major muscle flap transplantation operation scheme.

Keywords: platelet-rich plasma, negative-pressure wound therapy, sternal osteomyelitis, cardiac surgery

Procedia PDF Downloads 70

Authors: Zhuang Yiwen

Abstract:

The paper examines the challenges facing the Singapore healthcare system related to the tracking and traceability of medical devices. One of the major challenges identified is the lack of a standard coding system for medical devices, which makes it difficult to track them effectively. The paper suggests the use of the Unique Device Identifier (UDI) as a single standard for medical devices to improve tracking and reduce errors. The paper also explores the use of barcoding and image recognition to identify and document medical devices in nursing practices. In nursing practices, the use of barcodes for identifying medical devices is common. However, the information contained in these barcodes is often inconsistent, making it challenging to identify which segment contains the model identifier. Moreover, the use of barcodes may be improved with the use of UDI, but many subsidized accessories may still lack barcodes. The paper suggests that the readiness for UDI and barcode standardization requires standardized information, fields, and logic in electronic medical record (EMR), operating theatre (OT), and billing systems, as well as barcode scanners that can read various formats and selectively parse barcode segments. Nursing workflow and data flow also need to be taken into account. The paper also explores the use of image recognition, specifically the Tesseract OCR engine, to identify and document implants in public hospitals due to limitations in barcode scanning. The study found that the solution requires an implant information database and checking output against the database. The solution also requires customization of the algorithm, cropping out objects affecting text recognition, and applying adjustments. The solution requires additional resources and costs for a mobile/hardware device, which may pose space constraints and require maintenance of sterile criteria. The integration with EMR is also necessary, and the solution require changes in the user's workflow. The paper suggests that the long-term use of Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine Clinical Terms (SNOMED CT) as a supporting terminology to improve clinical documentation and data exchange in healthcare. SNOMED CT provides a standardized way of documenting and sharing clinical information with respect to procedure, patient and device documentation, which can facilitate interoperability and data exchange. In conclusion, the paper highlights the challenges facing the Singapore healthcare system related to the tracking and traceability of medical devices. The paper suggests the use of UDI and barcode standardization to improve tracking and reduce errors. It also explores the use of image recognition to identify and document medical devices in nursing practices. The paper emphasizes the importance of standardized information, fields, and logic in EMR, OT, and billing systems, as well as barcode scanners that can read various formats and selectively parse barcode segments. These recommendations could help the Singapore healthcare system to improve tracking and traceability of medical devices and ultimately enhance patient safety.

Keywords: medical device tracking, unique device identifier, barcoding and image recognition, systematized nomenclature of medicine clinical terms

Procedia PDF Downloads 67

Authors: Lin Zhao, Hanqiao Jiang, Junjian Li

Abstract:

Polymers injected into elevated-temperature reservoirs inevitably suffer from thermal degradation, resulting in severe viscosity loss and poor flooding performance. However, for polymer flooding in such reservoirs, present simulators fail to provide accurate results for lack of description on thermal degradation. In light of this, the objectives of this paper are to provide a simulation model for polymer flooding with thermal degradation and study the effect of thermal degradation on polymer flooding in elevated-temperature reservoirs. Firstly, a thermal degradation experiment was conducted to obtain the degradation law of polymer concentration and viscosity. Different types of polymers degraded in the Thermo tank with elevated temperatures. Afterward, based on the obtained law, a streamline-assistant model was proposed to simulate the degradation process under in-situ flow conditions. Model validation was performed with field data from a well group of an offshore oilfield. Finally, the effect of thermal degradation on polymer flooding was studied using the proposed model. Experimental results showed that the polymer concentration remained unchanged, while the viscosity degraded exponentially with time after degradation. The polymer viscosity was functionally dependent on the polymer degradation time (PDT), which represented the elapsed time started from the polymer particle injection. Tracing the real flow path of polymer particle was required. Therefore, the presented simulation model was streamline-assistant. Equation of PDT vs. time of flight (TOF) along streamline was built by the law of polymer particle transport. Based on the field polymer sample and dynamic data, the new model proved its accuracy. Study of degradation effect on polymer flooding indicated: (1) the viscosity loss increased with TOF exponentially in the main body of polymer-slug and remained constant in the slug front; (2) the responding time of polymer flooding was delayed, but the effective time was prolonged; (3) the breakthrough of subsequent water was eased; (4) the capacity of polymer adjusting injection profile was diminished; (5) the incremental recovery was reduced significantly. In general, the effect of thermal degradation on polymer flooding performance was rather negative. This paper provides a more comprehensive insight into polymer thermal degradation in both the physical process and field application. The proposed simulation model offers an effective means for simulating the polymer flooding process with thermal degradation. The negative effect of thermal degradation suggests that the polymer thermal stability should be given full consideration when designing polymer flooding project in elevated-temperature reservoirs.

Keywords: polymer flooding, elevated-temperature reservoir, thermal degradation, numerical simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 129

Authors: Natalia Bustos Sierra, Katrien Tersago

Abstract:

It is currently proven that both extremes of temperature are associated with increased mortality and that air pollution is associated with temperature. This relationship is complex, and in countries with important seasonal variations in weather such as Belgium, some effects can appear as non-significant when the analysis is done over the entire year. We, therefore, analyzed the effect of short-term outdoor air pollution exposure on cardiovascular mortality during the warmer and colder months separately. We used daily cardiovascular deaths from acute cardiovascular diagnostics according to the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10: I20-I24, I44-I49, I50, I60-I66) during the period 2008-2013. The environmental data were population-weighted concentrations of particulates with an aerodynamic diameter less than 10 µm (PM₁₀) and less than 2.5 µm (PM₂.₅) (daily average), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) (daily maximum of the hourly average) and ozone (O₃) (daily maximum of the 8-hour running mean). A Generalized linear model was applied adjusting for the confounding effect of season, temperature, dew point temperature, the day of the week, public holidays and the incidence of influenza-like illness (ILI) per 100,000 inhabitants. The relative risks (RR) were calculated for an increase of one interquartile range (IQR) of the air pollutant (μg/m³). These were presented for the four hottest months (June, July, August, September) and coldest months (November, December, January, February) in Belgium. We applied both individual lag model and unconstrained distributed lag model methods. The cumulative effect of a four-day exposure (day of exposure and three consecutive days) was calculated from the unconstrained distributed lag model. The IQR for PM₁₀, PM₂.₅, NO₂, and O₃ were respectively 8.2, 6.9, 12.9 and 25.5 µg/m³ during warm months and 18.8, 17.6, 18.4 and 27.8 µg/m³ during cold months. The association with CV mortality was statistically significant for the four pollutants during warm months and only for NO₂ during cold months. During the warm months, the cumulative effect of an IQR increase of ozone for the age groups 25-64, 65-84 and 85+ was 1.066 (95%CI: 1.002-1.135), 1.041 (1.008-1.075) and 1.036 (1.013-1.058) respectively. The cumulative effect of an IQR increase of NO₂ for the age group 65-84 was 1.066 (1.020-1.114) during warm months and 1.096 (1.030-1.166) during cold months. The cumulative effect of an IQR increase of PM₁₀ during warm months reached 1.046 (1.011-1.082) and 1.038 (1.015-1.063) for the age groups 65-84 and 85+ respectively. Similar results were observed for PM₂.₅. The short-term effect of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality is greater during warm months for lower pollutant concentrations compared to cold months. Spending more time outside during warm months increases population exposure to air pollution and can, therefore, be a confounding factor for this association. Age can also affect the length of time spent outdoors and the type of physical activity exercised. This study supports the deleterious effect of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality (CV) which varies according to season and age groups in Belgium. Public health measures should, therefore, be adapted to seasonality.

Keywords: air pollution, cardiovascular, mortality, season

Procedia PDF Downloads 153

Authors: Kevin W. Zobrist, Patricia A. Townsend, Nora M. Haider

Abstract:

Advanced Hardwood Biofuels Northwest (AHB) is a consortium funded by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) to research the potential for a system to produce advanced biofuels (jet fuel, diesel, and gasoline) from hybrid poplar in the Pacific Northwest region of the U.S. An Extension team was established as part of the project to examine community readiness and willingness to adopt hybrid as a purpose-grown bioenergy crop. The Extension team surveyed key stakeholder groups, including growers, Extension professionals, policy makers, and environmental groups, to examine attitudes and concerns about growing hybrid poplar for biofuels. The surveys found broad skepticism about the viability of such a system. The top concern for most stakeholder groups was economic viability and the availability of predictable markets. Growers had additional concerns stemming from negative past experience with hybrid poplar as an unprofitable endeavor for pulp and paper production. Additional barriers identified included overall land availability and the availability of water and water rights for irrigation in dry areas of the region. Since the beginning of the project, oil and natural gas prices have plummeted due to rapid increases in domestic production. This has exacerbated the problem with economic viability by making biofuels even less competitive than fossil fuels. However, the AHB project has identified intermediate market opportunities to use poplar as a renewable source for other biochemicals produced by petroleum refineries, such as acetic acid, ethyl acetate, ethanol, and ethylene. These chemicals can be produced at a lower cost with higher yields and higher, more-stable prices. Despite these promising market opportunities, the survey results suggest that it will still be challenging to induce growers to adopt hybrid poplar. Early adopters will be needed to establish an initial feedstock supply for a budding industry. Through demonstration sites and outreach events to various stakeholder groups, the project attracted interest from wastewater treatment facilities, since these facilities are already growing hybrid poplar plantations for applying biosolids and treated wastewater for further purification, clarification, and nutrient control through hybrid poplar’s phytoremediation capabilities. Since these facilities are already using hybrid poplar, selling the wood as feedstock for a biorefinery would be an added bonus rather than something requiring a high rate of return to compete with other crops and land uses. By holding regional workshops and conferences with wastewater professionals, AHB Extension has found strong interest from wastewater treatment operators. In conclusion, there are several significant barriers to developing a successful system for producing biofuels from hybrid poplar, with the largest barrier being economic viability. However, there is potential for wastewater treatment facilities to serve as early adopters for hybrid poplar production for intermediate biochemicals and eventually biofuels.

Keywords: hybrid poplar, biofuels, biochemicals, wastewater treatment

Procedia PDF Downloads 261

Authors: Dennis Otieno, Lilian Kirimi Nicholas Odhiambo, Hillary Bii

Abstract:

Kenya is considered to be a middle level income country and usuaaly does not meet household food security needs especially in North and South eastern parts. Approximately half of the population is living under the poverty line (www, CIA 1, 2012). Agriculture is the largest sector in the country, employing 80% of the population. These are thereby directly dependent on the sufficiency of outputs received. This makes efficient, easy-accessible and cheap agricultural practices an important matter in order to improve food security. Maize is the prime staple food commodity in Kenya and represents a substantial share of people’s nutritional intake. This study is the result of questionnaire based interviews, Key informant and focus group discussion involving 220 small scale maize farmers Kenyan. The study was located to two separated areas; Lower Kuja, Bunyala, Nandi, Lower Nzoia, Perkerra, Mwea Bura, Hola and Galana Kulalu in Kenya. The questionnaire captured the farmers’ use and perceived importance of the use irrigation services and irrigated maize production. Viability was evaluated using the four indices which were all positive with NPV giving positive cash flows in less than 21 years at most for one season output. The mean willingness to pay was found to be KES 3082 and willingness to pay increased with increase in irrigation premiums. The economic value of water was found to be greater than the willingness to pay implying that irrigated maize production is sustainable. Farmers stated that viability was influenced by high output levels, good produce quality, crop of choice, availability of sufficient water and enforcement the last two factors had a positive influence while the other had negative effect on the viability of irrigated maize. A regression was made over the correlation between the willingness to pay for irrigated maize production using scheme and plot level factors. Farmers that already use other inputs such as animal manure, hired labor and chemical fertilizer should also have a demand for improved seeds according to Liebig's law of minimum and expansion path theory. The regression showed that premiums, and high yields have a positive effect on willingness to pay while produce quality, efficient fertilizer use, and crop season have a negative effect.

Keywords: maize, food security, profits, sustainability, willingness to pay

Procedia PDF Downloads 212

Authors: Samira Baghbanbari, A. B. P. Lever, Payam S. Shabestari, Donald Weaver

Abstract:

Existing signal transmission models, although undoubtedly useful, have proven insufficient to explain the full complexity of information transfer within the central nervous system. The development of transformative models will necessitate a more comprehensive understanding of neuronal lipid membrane electrophysiology. Pursuant to this goal, the role of highly organized interfacial phospholipid-water layers emerges as a promising case study. A series of phospholipids in neural-glial gap junction interfaces as well as cholesterol molecules have been computationally modelled using high-performance density functional theory (DFT) calculations. Subsequent 'charge decomposition analysis' calculations have revealed a net transfer of charge from phospholipid orbitals through the organized interfacial water layer before ultimately finding its way to cholesterol acceptor molecules. The specific pathway of charge transfer from phospholipid via water layers towards cholesterol has been mapped in detail. Cholesterol is an essential membrane component that is overrepresented in neuronal membranes as compared to other mammalian cells; given this relative abundance, its apparent role as an electronic acceptor may prove to be a relevant factor in further signal transmission studies of the central nervous system. The timescales over which this electronic charge transfer occurs have also been evaluated by utilizing a system design that systematically increases the number of water molecules separating lipids and cholesterol. Memory loss through hydrogen-bonded networks in water can occur at femtosecond timescales, whereas existing action potential-based models are limited to micro or nanosecond scales. As such, the development of future models that attempt to explain faster timescale signal transmission in the central nervous system may benefit from our work, which provides additional information regarding fast timescale energy transfer mechanisms occurring through interfacial water. The study possesses a dataset that includes six distinct phospholipids and a collection of cholesterol. Ten optimized geometric characteristics (features) were employed to conduct binary classification through an artificial neural network (ANN), differentiating cholesterol from the various phospholipids. This stems from our understanding that all lipids within the first group function as electronic charge donors, while cholesterol serves as an electronic charge acceptor.

Keywords: charge transfer, signal transmission, phospholipids, water layers, ANN

Procedia PDF Downloads 57

Authors: Eish Sharma

Abstract:

Literature around Mathematics education suggests that democratic attitudes can be strengthened through teaching and learning Mathematics. Furthermore, connections between critical education and Mathematics education are observed in the light of critical pedagogy to locate Critical Mathematics Education (CME) as the theoretical framework. Critical pedagogy applied to Mathematics education is identified as one of the key themes subsumed under Critical Mathematics Education. Through the application of critical pedagogy in mathematics, unequal power relations and social injustice can be identified, analyzed, and challenged. The research question is: have educational policies in India viewed the role of critical pedagogy applied to mathematics education (i.e., critical mathematics education) to ensure social justice as an educational aim? The National Curriculum Framework (NCF), 2005 upholds education for democracy and the role of mathematics education in facilitating the same. More than this, NCF 2005 rests on Critical Pedagogy Framework and it recommends that critical pedagogy must be practiced in all dimensions of school education. NCF 2005 visualizes critical pedagogy for social sciences as well as sciences, stating that the science curriculum, including mathematics, must be used as an “instrument for achieving social change to reduce the divide based on economic class, gender, caste, religion, and the region”. Furthermore, the implementation of NCF 2005 led to a reform in the syllabus and textbooks in school mathematics at the national level, and critical pedagogy was applied to mathematics textbooks at the primary level. This intervention led to ethnomathematics and critical mathematics education in the school curriculum in India for the first time at the national level. In October 2022, the Ministry of Education launched the National Curriculum Framework for Foundational Stage (NCF-FS), developed in light of the National Education Policy, 2020, for children in the three to eight years age group. I want to find out whether critical pedagogy-based education and critical pedagogy-based mathematics education are carried forward in NCF 2022. To find this, an argument analysis of specific sections of the National Curriculum Framework 2022 document needs to be executed. Des Gasper suggests two tables: The first table contains four columns, namely, text component, comments on meanings, possible reformulation of the same text, and identified conclusions and assumptions (both stated and unstated). This table is for understanding the components and meanings of the text and is based on Scriven’s model for understanding the components and meanings of words in the text. The second table contains four columns i.e., claim identified, given data, warrant, and stated qualifier/rebuttal. This table is for describing the structure of the argument, how and how well the components fit together and is called ‘George Table diagram based on Toulmin-Bunn Model’.

Keywords: critical mathematics education, critical pedagogy, social justice, etnomathematics

Procedia PDF Downloads 72

Authors: Christine Winberg, James Garraway

Abstract:

Many key university documents, such as vision and mission statements and strategic plans, are aspirational and future-oriented. There is a wide range of future-oriented methods that are used in planning applications, ranging from mathematical modelling to expert opinions. Many of these methods have limitations, and planners using these tools might, for example, make the technical-rational assumption that their plans will unfold in a logical and inevitable fashion, thus underestimating the many complex forces that are at play in planning for an unknown future. This is the issue that this study addresses. The overall project aim was to assist a new university of technology in developing appropriate responses to its social responsibility, graduate employability and research missions in its strategic plan. The specific research question guiding the research activities and approach was: how might the use of innovative future-oriented planning tools enable or constrain a strategic planning process? The research objective was to engage collaborating groups in the use of an innovative tool to develop and assess future scenarios, for the purpose of developing deeper understandings of possible futures and their challenges. The scenario planning tool chosen was ‘fictive scripting’, an analytical technique derived from Technology Forecasting and Innovation Studies. Fictive scripts are future projections that also take into account the present shape of the world and current developments. The process thus began with a critical diagnosis of the present, highlighting its tensions and frictions. The collaborative groups then developed fictive scripts, each group producing a future scenario that foregrounded different institutional missions, their implications and possible consequences. The scripts were analyzed with a view to identifying their potential contribution to the university’s strategic planning exercise. The unfolding fictive scripts revealed a number of insights in terms of unexpected benefits, unexpected challenges, and unexpected consequences. These insights were not evident in previous strategic planning exercises. The contribution that this study offers is to show how better choices can be made and potential pitfalls avoided through a systematic foresight exercise. When universities develop strategic planning documents, they are looking into the future. In this paper it is argued that the use of appropriate tools for future-oriented exercises, can help planners to understand more fully what achieving desired outcomes might entail, what challenges might be encountered, and what unexpected consequences might ensue.

Keywords: fictive scripts, scenarios, strategic planning, technological forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 116

Authors: Marcelo Sanhueza Cartes, Nelson Maureira Carsalade

Abstract:

This research evaluates the effectiveness of a pallet isolation device for the protection of selective-type industrial storage racks. The device works only in the longitudinal direction of the aisle, and it is made up of a platform installed on the rack beams. At both ends, the platform is connected to the rack structure by means of a spring-damper system working in parallel. A system of wheels is arranged between the isolation platform and the rack beams in order to reduce friction, decoupling of the movement and improve the effectiveness of the device. The latter is evaluated by the reduction of the maximum dynamic responses of basal shear load and story drift in relation to those corresponding to the same rack with the traditional construction system. In the first stage, numerical simulations of industrial storage racks were carried out with and without the pallet isolation device. The numerical results allowed us to identify the archetypes in which it would be more appropriate to carry out experimental tests, thus limiting the number of trials. In the second stage, experimental tests were carried out on a shaking table to a select group of full-scale racks with and without the proposed device. The movement simulated by the shaking table was based on the Mw 8.8 magnitude earthquake of February 27, 2010, in Chile, registered at the San Pedro de la Paz station. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) was scaled in the frequency domain to fit its response spectrum with the design spectrum of NCh433. The experimental setup contemplates the installation of sensors to measure relative displacement and absolute acceleration. The movement of the shaking table with respect to the ground, the inter-story drift of the rack and the pallets with respect to the rack structure were recorded. Accelerometers redundantly measured all of the above in order to corroborate measurements and adequately capture low and high-frequency vibrations, whereas displacement and acceleration sensors are respectively more reliable. The numerical and experimental results allowed us to identify that the pallet isolation period is the variable with the greatest influence on the dynamic responses considered. It was also possible to identify that the proposed device significantly reduces both the basal cut and the maximum inter-story drift by up to one order of magnitude.

Keywords: pallet isolation system, industrial storage racks, basal shear load, interstory drift.

Procedia PDF Downloads 65

Authors: Rostyslav Horbay, Nick Korolis, Vahid Anvari, Rostyslav Stoika

Abstract:

Introduction: Giant cancer cells (GCC) are common in all types of cancer, especially after poor therapy. Some specific features of such cells include ~10-fold enlargement, drug resistance, and the ability to propagate similar daughter cells. We used murine NK/Ly lymphoma, an aggressive and fast growing lymphoma model that has already shown drastic changes in GCC comparing to parental cells (chromatin condensation, nuclear fragmentation, tighter OXPHOS/cellular respiration coupling, multidrug resistance). Materials and methods: In this study, we compared morpho-functional changes of GCC that predominantly show either a cytostatic or a cytotoxic effect after treatment with drugs. We studied the effect of a combined cytostatic/cytotoxic drug treatment to determine the correlation of drug efficiency and GCC formation. Doses of G1/S-specific drug paclitaxel/PTX (G2/M-specific, 50 mg/mouse), vinblastine/VBL (50 mg/mouse), and DNA-targeting agents doxorubicin/DOX (125 ng/mouse) and cisplatin/CP (225 ng/mouse) on C57 black mice. Several tests were chosen to estimate morphological and physiological state (propidium iodide, Rhodamine-123, DAPI, JC-1, Janus Green, Giemsa staining and other), which included cell integrity, nuclear fragmentation and chromatin condensation, mitochondrial activity, and others. A single and double factor ANOVA analysis were performed to determine correlation between the criteria of applied drugs and cytomorphological changes. Results: In all cases of treatment, several morphological changes were observed (intracellular vacuolization, membrane blebbing, and interconnected mitochondrial network). A lower gain in ascites (49.97% comparing to control group) and longest lifespan (22+9 days) after tumor injection was obtained with single VBL and single DOX injections. Such ascites contained the highest number of GCC (83.7%+9.2%), lowest cell count number (72.7+31.0 mln/ml), and a strong correlation coefficient between increased mitochondrial activity and percentage of giant NK/Ly cells. A high number of viable GCC (82.1+9.2%) was observed compared to the parental forms (15.4+11.9%) indicating that GCC are more drug resistant than the parental cells. All this indicates that the giant cell formation and its ability to obtain drug resistance is an expanding field in cancer research.

Keywords: ANOVA, cisplatin, doxorubicin, drug resistance, giant cancer cells, NK/Ly lymphoma, paclitaxel, vinblastine

Procedia PDF Downloads 210

Authors: Yichao Liu, Peter Fransson, Julian Heidecke, Jonas Wallin, Joacim Rockloev

Abstract:

Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral disease, poses a significant public health challenge in endemic tropical or subtropical countries, including Sri Lanka. To reveal insights into the complexity of the dynamics of this disease and study the drivers, a comprehensive model capable of both robust forecasting and insightful inference of drivers while capturing the co-circulating of several virus strains is essential. However, existing studies mostly focus on only one aspect at a time and do not integrate and carry insights across the siloed approach. While mechanistic models are developed to capture immunity dynamics, they are often oversimplified and lack integration of all the diverse drivers of disease transmission. On the other hand, purely data-driven methods lack constraints imposed by immuno-epidemiological processes, making them prone to overfitting and inference bias. This research presents a hybrid model that combines machine learning techniques with mechanistic modelling to overcome the limitations of existing approaches. Leveraging eight years of newly reported dengue case data, along with socioeconomic factors, such as human mobility, weekly climate data from 2011 to 2018, genetic data detecting the introduction and presence of new strains, and estimates of seropositivity for different districts in Sri Lanka, we derive a data-driven vector (SEI) to human (SEIR) model across 16 regions in Sri Lanka at the weekly time scale. By conducting ablation studies, the lag effects allowing delays up to 12 weeks of time-varying climate factors were determined. The model demonstrates superior predictive performance over a pure machine learning approach when considering lead times of 5 and 10 weeks on data withheld from model fitting. It further reveals several interesting interpretable findings of drivers while adjusting for the dynamics and influences of immunity and introduction of a new strain. The study uncovers strong influences of socioeconomic variables: population density, mobility, household income and rural vs. urban population. The study reveals substantial sensitivity to the diurnal temperature range and precipitation, while mean temperature and humidity appear less important in the study location. Additionally, the model indicated sensitivity to vegetation index, both max and average. Predictions on testing data reveal high model accuracy. Overall, this study advances the knowledge of dengue transmission in Sri Lanka and demonstrates the importance of incorporating hybrid modelling techniques to use biologically informed model structures with flexible data-driven estimates of model parameters. The findings show the potential to both inference of drivers in situations of complex disease dynamics and robust forecasting models.

Keywords: compartmental model, climate, dengue, machine learning, social-economic

Procedia PDF Downloads 67

Authors: M. G. Talasbayen, N. N. Dyussenbayev, Y. D. Kali, R. A. Zholbarysov, Y. N. Duissenbayev, I. Z. Mammadinova, S. M. Nuradilov

Abstract:

Background. Hemorrhagic stroke is an acute cerebrovascular accident resulting from rupture of a cerebral vessel or increased permeability of the wall and imbibition of blood into the brain parenchyma. Arterial hypertension is a common cause of hemorrhagic stroke. Male gender and age over 55 years is a risk factor for intracerebral hemorrhage. Treatment of intracerebral hemorrhage is aimed at the primary pathophysiological link: the relief of coagulopathy and the control of arterial hypertension. Early surgical treatment can limit cerebral compression; prevent toxic effects of blood to the brain parenchyma. Despite progress in the development of neuroimaging data, the use of minimally invasive techniques, and navigation system, mortality from intracerebral hemorrhage remains high. Materials and methods. The study included 78 patients (62.82% male and 37.18% female) with a verified diagnosis of hemorrhagic stroke in the period from 2019 to 2021. The age of patients ranged from 25 to 80 years, the average age was 54.66±11.9 years. Demographic, brain CT data (localization, volume of hematomas), methods of treatment, and disease outcome were analyzed. Results. The retrospective analyze demonstrate that 78.2% of all patients underwent surgical treatment: decompressive craniectomy in 37.7%, craniotomy with hematoma evacuation in 29.5%, and hematoma draining in 24.59% cases. The study of the proportion of deaths, depending on the volume of intracerebral hemorrhage, shows that the number of deaths was higher in the group with a hematoma volume of more than 60 ml. Evaluation of the relationship between the time before surgery and mortality demonstrates that the most favorable outcome is observed during surgical treatment in the interval from 3 to 24 hours. Mortality depending on age did not reveal a significant difference between age groups. An analysis of the impact of the surgery type on mortality reveals that decompressive craniectomy with or without hematoma evacuation led to an unfavorable outcome in 73.9% of cases, while craniotomy with hematoma evacuation and drainage led to mortality only in 28.82% cases. Conclusion. Even though the multimodal approaches, the development of surgical techniques and equipment, and the selection of optimal conservative therapy, the question of determining the tactics of managing and treating hemorrhagic strokes is still controversial. Nevertheless, our experience shows that surgical intervention within 24 hours from the moment of admission and craniotomy with hematoma evacuation improves the prognosis of treatment outcomes.

Keywords: hemorragic stroke, Intracerebral hemorrhage, surgical treatment, stroke mortality

Procedia PDF Downloads 99

Authors: António J. Gano, Carmen Rangel

Abstract:

Currently, electric energy storage systems for stationary applications have known an increasing interest, namely with the integration of local renewable energy power sources into energy communities. Li-ion batteries are considered the leading electric storage devices to achieve this integration, and Battery Management Systems (BMS) are decisive for their control and optimum performance. In this work, the advancement of a smart BMS (sBMS) prototype with a modular distributed topology is described. The system, still under development, has a distributed architecture with modular characteristics to operate with different battery pack topologies and charge capacities, integrating adaptive algorithms for functional state real-time monitoring and management of multicellular Li-ion batteries, and is intended for application in the context of a local energy community fed by renewable energy sources. This sBMS system includes different developed hardware units: (1) Cell monitoring units (CMUs) for interfacing with each individual cell or module monitoring within the battery pack; (2) Battery monitoring and switching unit (BMU) for global battery pack monitoring, thermal control and functional operating state switching; (3) Main management and local control unit (MCU) for local sBMS’s management and control, also serving as a communications gateway to external systems and devices. This architecture is fully expandable to battery packs with a large number of cells, or modules, interconnected in series, as the several units have local data acquisition and processing capabilities, communicating over a standard CAN bus and will be able to operate almost autonomously. The CMU units are intended to be used with Li-ion cells but can be used with other cell chemistries, with output voltages within the 2.5 to 5 V range. The different unit’s characteristics and specifications are described, including the different implemented hardware solutions. The developed hardware supports both passive and active methods for charge equalization, considered fundamental functionalities for optimizing the performance and the useful lifetime of a Li-ion battery package. The functional characteristics of the different units of this sBMS system, including different process variables data acquisition using a flexible set of sensors, can support the development of custom algorithms for estimating the parameters defining the functional states of the battery pack (State-of-Charge, State-of-Health, etc.) as well as different charge equalizing strategies and algorithms. This sBMS system is intended to interface with other systems and devices using standard communication protocols, like those used by the Internet of Things. In the future, this sBMS architecture can evolve to a fully decentralized topology, with all the units using Wi-Fi protocols and integrating a mesh network, making unnecessary the MCU unit. The status of the work in progress is reported, leading to conclusions on the system already executed, considering the implemented hardware solution, not only as fully functional advanced and configurable battery management system but also as a platform for developing custom algorithms and optimizing strategies to achieve better performance of electric energy stationary storage devices.

Keywords: Li-ion battery, smart BMS, stationary electric storage, distributed BMS

Procedia PDF Downloads 88

Authors: S. Fazelifar, M. Ghasemi

Abstract:

Aim: Recent studies on cardiovascular risk factors have been focused on the new markers of inflammatory diseases such as C-reactive protein (CRP). Research evidence shows that physical activity along with other factors such as reduced smoking, controlling blood pressure, control blood lipids TC, LDL-c, HDL-c and having a healthy weight can reduce the risk of chronic heart disease (CHD) .Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine the effect of twelve weeks aerobic exercise and consumption of apple vinegar on cardiovascular risk factor in older women. Methodology: 28 inactive women (mean body weight 72.13 ± 8.6 kg, height 157 ± 7.4cm, age 48.06 ± 5.18 years and BMI 28.2 ± 3.2 kg/m2) by recall and notice of investigation, among of the eligible voters recruited and randomly divided in 4 groups: control, apple vinegar, exercise, exercise + apple vinegar. The training program includes a 20-minute warm-up and stretching, running for 15 minutes in the first session with an intensity of 80% of maximum heart rate and an increase in one-minute run time in next training session. Also, subjects in experimental groups received daily specified amount of 50 ml apple vinegar. Blood samples were collected from the brachial vein in before and after training to measure CRP and blood lipids (cholesterol, HDL, VLDL, LDL). The levels of CRP were measured by ELISA way. K-S test to determine the normality of the data and analysis of variance for repeated measures was used to analyze the data. A significant difference in the p < 0/05 accepted. Results: The results indicated that individual characteristics including height, weight, age, and body mass index were not significantly different among the four groups. The results showed that levels of CRP and LDL cholesterol were significantly reduced in all groups at post-test compared to the pre-test. The HDL levels increased significantly in all groups in post-test compared to the pre-test. Analysis of the data indicates that levels of CRP, TC, and LDL were significantly reduced in all groups compared to the control group, while the changes in the other groups were not significant relative to each other. Conclusion: Results of this study showed that twelve weeks of aerobic exercise with apple vinegar cause a significant decrease in CRP, cholesterol, LDL, and significantly increased HDL levels. According to the results of this study, it is possible that aerobic exercise with apple vinegar can inhibit CRP and undesirable fats. Considering the strong association between the inflammatory indices and the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases, every factor that decreases these indices can reduce the cardiovascular complications.

Keywords: aerobic exercise, apple vinegar, CRP, older women

Procedia PDF Downloads 465

Authors: Tristance Kee

Abstract:

With the unprecedented increase in elderly population globally, it is critical to search for new sustainable housing and urban development alternatives to traditional housing options. This research examines concepts of elderly migration pattern in the context of a high density city in Hong Kong to Mainland China. The research objectives are to: 1) explore the relationships between soon-to-be-old elderly and their intentions to move to Mainland upon retirement and their demographic characteristics; and 2) What are the desired amenities, locational factors and activities that are expected in the soon-to-be-old generation’s retirement housing environment? Primary data was collected through questionnaire survey conducted using random sampling method with respondents aged between 45-64 years old. The face-to-face survey was completed by 500 respondents. The survey was divided into four sections. The first section focused on respondent’s demographic information such as gender, age, education attainment, monthly income, housing tenure type and their visits to Mainland China. The second section focused on their retirement plans in terms of intended retirement age, prospective retirement funding and retirement housing options. The third section focused on the respondent’s attitudes toward retiring in Mainland for housing. It asked about their intentions to migrate retire into Mainland and incentives to retire in Hong Kong. The fourth section focused on respondent’s ideal housing environment including preferred housing amenities, desired living environment and retirement activities. The dependent variable in this study was ‘respondent’s consideration to move to Mainland China upon retirement’. Eight primary independent variables were integrated into the study to identify the correlations between them and retirement migration plan. The independent variables include: gender, age, marital status, monthly income, present housing tenure type, property ownership in Hong Kong, relationship with Mainland and the frequency of visiting Mainland China. In addition to the above independent variables, respondents were asked to indicate their retirement plans (retirement age, funding sources and retirement housing options), incentives to migrate to retire (choices included: property ownership, family relations, cost of living, living environment, medical facilities, government welfare benefits, etc.), perceived ideal retirement life qualities including desired amenities (sports, medical and leisure facilities etc.), desired locational qualities (green open space, convenient transport options and accessibility to urban settings etc.) and desired retirement activities (home-based leisure, elderly friendly sports, cultural activities, child care, social activities, etc.). The finding shows correlations between the used independent variables and consideration to migrate for housing options. The two independent variables indicated a possible correlation were gender and the frequency of visiting Mainland at present. When considering the increasing property prices across the border and strong social relationships, potential retirement migration is a very subjective decision that could vary from person to person. This research adds knowledge to housing research and migration study. Although the research is based in Mainland, most of the characteristics identified including better medical services, government welfare and sound urban amenities are shared qualities for all sustainable urban development and housing strategies.

Keywords: elderly migration, housing alternative, soon-to-be-old, sustainable environment

Procedia PDF Downloads 202

Authors: Cecilia Moreira, Rita Paiva, Daniela Macedo, Leonor Ribeiro, Isabel Fernandes, Luis Costa

Abstract:

Background: Head and neck paragangliomas are a rare group of tumors with a large spectrum of clinical manifestations. The approach to evaluate and treat these lesions has evolved over the last years. Surgery was the standard for the approach of these patients, but nowadays new techniques of imaging and radiation therapy changed that paradigm. Despite advances in treating, the growth potential and clinical outcome of individual cases remain largely unpredictable. Objectives: Characterization of our institutional experience with clinical management of these tumors. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study of patients followed in our institution between 01 January and 31 December 2017 with paragangliomas of the head and neck and cranial base. Data on tumor location, catecholamine levels, and specific imaging modalities employed in diagnostic workup, treatment modality, tumor control and recurrence, complications of treatment and hereditary status were collected and summarized. Results: A total of four female patients were followed between 01 January and 31 December 2017 in our institution. The mean age of our cohort was 53 (± 16.1) years. The primary locations were at the level of the tympanic jug (n=2, 50%) and carotid body (n=2, 50%), and only one of the tumors of the carotid body presented pulmonary metastasis at the time of diagnosis. None of the lesions were catecholamine-secreting. Two patients underwent genetic testing, with no mutations identified. The initial clinical presentation was variable highlighting the decrease of visual acuity and headache as symptoms present in all patients. In one of the cases, loss of all teeth of the lower jaw was the presenting symptomatology. Observation with serial imaging, surgical extirpation, radiation, and stereotactic radiosurgery were employed as treatment approaches according to anatomical location and resectability of lesions. As post-therapeutic sequels the persistence of tinnitus and disabling pain stands out, presenting one of the patients neuralgia of the glossopharyngeal. Currently, all patients are under regular surveillance with a median follow up of 10 months. Conclusion: Ultimately, clinical management of these tumors remains challenging owing to heterogeneity in clinical presentation, the existence of multiple treatment alternatives, and potential to cause serious detriment to critical functions and consequently interference with the quality of life of the patients.

Keywords: clinical outcomes, head and neck, management, paragangliomas

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Katarzyna Neffe-Skocinska, Marzena Tomaszewska, Beata Bilska, Dorota Zielinska, Monika Trzaskowska, Anna Lepecka, Danuta Kolozyn-Krajewska

Abstract:

The aim of the study was to assess Polish consumer behavior towards food waste, including knowledge of information on food labels. The survey was carried out using the CAPI (computer assisted personal interview) method, which involves interviewing the respondent using mobile devices. The research group was a representative sample for Poland due to demographic variables: gender, age, place of residence. A total of 1.115 respondents participated in the study (51.1% were women and 48.9% were men). The questionnaire included questions on five thematic aspects: 1. General knowledge and sources of information on the phenomenon of food waste; 2. Consumption of food after the date of minimum durability; 3. The meanings of the phrase 'best before ...'; 4. Indication of the difference between the meaning of the words 'best before ...' and 'use by'; 5. Indications products marked with the phrase 'best before ...'. It was found that every second surveyed Pole met with the topic of food waste (54.8%). Among the respondents, the most popular source of information related to the research topic was television (89.4%), radio (26%) and the Internet (24%). Over a third of respondents declared that they consume food after the date of minimum durability. Only every tenth (9.8%) respondent does not pay attention to the expiry date and type of consumed products (durable and perishable products). Correctly 39.8% of respondents answered the question: How do you understand the phrase 'best before ...'? In the opinion of 42.8% of respondents, the statements 'best before ...' and 'use by' mean the same thing, while 36% of them think differently. In addition, more than one-fifth of respondents could not respond to the questions. In the case of products of the indication information 'best before ...', more than 40% of the respondents chosen perishable products, e.g., yoghurts and durable, e.g., groats. A slightly lower percentage of indications was recorded for flour (35.1%), sausage (32.8%), canned corn (31.8%), and eggs (25.0%). Based on the assessment of the behavior of Polish consumers towards the phenomenon of food waste, it can be concluded that respondents have elementary knowledge of the study subject. Noteworthy is the good conduct of most respondents in terms of compliance with shelf life and dates of minimum durability of food products. The publication was financed on the basis of an agreement with the National Center for Research and Development No. Gospostrateg 1/385753/1/NCBR/2018 for the implementation and financing of the project under the strategic research and development program social and economic development of Poland in the conditions of globalizing markets – GOSPOSTRATEG - acronym PROM.

Keywords: food waste, shelf life, dates of durability, consumer knowledge and behavior

Procedia PDF Downloads 164