Search results for: general linear regression model

Authors: Kibrom Hadush

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Countries like Ethiopia, whose economy is mainly rain-fed dependent agriculture, are highly vulnerable to climate variability and weather extremes. Sub-seasonal (monthly) and dekadal forecasts are hence critical for crop production and water resource management. Therefore, this paper was conducted to study the predictability and variability of Kiremt rainfall over the northern half of Ethiopia on monthly and dekadal time scales in association with global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) at different lag time. Trends in rainfall have been analyzed on annual, seasonal (Kiremt), monthly, and dekadal (June–September) time scales based on rainfall records of 36 meteorological stations distributed across four homogenous zones of the northern half of Ethiopia for the period 1992–2017. The results from the progressive Mann–Kendall trend test and the Sen’s slope method shows that there is no significant trend in the annual, Kiremt, monthly and dekadal rainfall total at most of the station's studies. Moreover, the rainfall in the study area varies spatially and temporally, and the distribution of the rainfall pattern increases from the northeast rift valley to northwest highlands. Methods of analysis include graphical correlation and multiple linear regression model are employed to investigate the association between the global SSTs and Kiremt rainfall over the homogeneous rainfall zones and to predict monthly and dekadal (June-September) rainfall using SST predictors. The results of this study show that in general, SST in the equatorial Pacific Ocean is the main source of the predictive skill of the Kiremt rainfall variability over the northern half of Ethiopia. The regional SSTs in the Atlantic and the Indian Ocean as well contribute to the Kiremt rainfall variability over the study area. Moreover, the result of the correlation analysis showed that the decline of monthly and dekadal Kiremt rainfall over most of the homogeneous zones of the study area are caused by the corresponding persistent warming of the SST in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean during the period 1992 - 2017. It is also found that the monthly and dekadal Kiremt rainfall over the northern, northwestern highlands and northeastern lowlands of Ethiopia are positively correlated with the SST in the western equatorial Pacific, eastern and tropical northern the Atlantic Ocean. Furthermore, the SSTs in the western equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans are positively correlated to the Kiremt season rainfall in the northeastern highlands. Overall, the results showed that the prediction models using combined SSTs at various ocean regions (equatorial and tropical) performed reasonably well in the prediction (With R2 ranging from 30% to 65%) of monthly and dekadal rainfall and recommends it can be used for efficient prediction of Kiremt rainfall over the study area to aid with systematic and informed decision making within the agricultural sector.

Keywords: dekadal, Kiremt rainfall, monthly, Northern Ethiopia, sea surface temperature

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Authors: Mohammad Anwar, Shah Waliullah

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This study investigated panel data regression models. This paper used Bayesian and classical methods to study the impact of institutions on economic growth from data (1990-2014), especially in developing countries. Under the classical and Bayesian methodology, the two-panel data models were estimated, which are common effects and fixed effects. For the Bayesian approach, the prior information is used in this paper, and normal gamma prior is used for the panel data models. The analysis was done through WinBUGS14 software. The estimated results of the study showed that panel data models are valid models in Bayesian methodology. In the Bayesian approach, the effects of all independent variables were positively and significantly affected by the dependent variables. Based on the standard errors of all models, we must say that the fixed effect model is the best model in the Bayesian estimation of panel data models. Also, it was proved that the fixed effect model has the lowest value of standard error, as compared to other models.

Keywords: Bayesian approach, common effect, fixed effect, random effect, Dynamic Random Effect Model

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Authors: Mohd Tahseen Islam Talukder, Sheikh Adnan Enam, Latifa Akter Lithi, Soebur Rahman

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Composite structures have made significant advances in construction applications during the last few decades. Composite structures are composed of structural steel shapes and reinforced concrete combined with shear connectors, which benefit each material's unique properties. Significant research has been conducted on different types of connectors’ behavior and shear capacity. Moreover, the AISC 360-16 “Specification for Steel Structural Buildings” consists of a formula for channel shear connectors' shear capacity. This research compares the behavior of C type and L type shear connectors using Finite Element Analysis. Experimental results from published literature are used to validate the finite element models. The 3-D Finite Element Model (FEM) was built using ABAQUS 2017 to investigate non-linear capabilities and the ultimate load-carrying potential of the connectors using push-out tests. The changes in connector dimensions were analyzed using this non-linear model in parametric investigations. The parametric study shows that by increasing the length of the shear connector by 10 mm, its shear strength increases by 21%. Shear capacity increased by 13% as the height was increased by 10 mm. The thickness of the specimen was raised by 1 mm, resulting in a 2% increase in shear capacity. However, the shear capacity of channel connectors was reduced by 21% due to an increase of thickness by 2 mm.

Keywords: finite element method, channel shear connector, angle shear connector, ABAQUS, composite structure, shear connector, parametric study, ultimate shear capacity, push-out test

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Authors: Inna R. Edara, Haw-Lin Wu

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Positive psychology investigates human strengths and virtues and promotes well-being. Relying on this assumption, positive interventions have been continuously designed to build pleasure and happiness, joy and contentment, engagement and meaning, hope and optimism, satisfaction and gratitude, spirituality, and various other positive measures of well-being. In line with this model of positive psychology and interventions, this study investigated certain measures of well-being in a group of 45 students enrolled in an 18-week positive psychology course and simultaneously engaged in service-oriented interventions that they chose for themselves based on the course content and individual interests. Students’ well-being was measured at the beginning and end of the course. The well-being indicators included positive automatic thoughts, optimism and hope, satisfaction with life, and spirituality. A paired-samples t-test conducted to evaluate the impact of class content and service-oriented interventions on students’ scores of well-being indicators indicated statistically significant increase from pre-class to post-class scores. There were also significant gender differences in post-course well-being scores, with females having higher levels of well-being than males. A two-way between groups analysis of variance indicated a significant interaction effect of age by gender on the post-course well-being scores, with females in the age group of 56-65 having the highest scores of well-being in comparison to the males in the same age group. Regression analyses indicated that positive automatic thought significantly predicted hope and satisfaction with life in the pre-course analysis. In the post-course regression analysis, spiritual transcendence made a significant contribution to optimism, and positive automatic thought made a significant contribution to both hope and satisfaction with life. Finally, a significant test between pre-course and post-course regression coefficients indicated that the regression coefficients at pre-course were significantly different from post-course coefficients, suggesting that the positive psychology course and the interventions were helpful in raising the levels of well-being. The overall results suggest a substantial increase in the participants’ well-being scores after engaging in the positive-oriented interventions, implying a need for designing more positive interventions in education to promote well-being.  

Keywords: hope, optimism, positive automatic thoughts, satisfaction with life, spirituality, well-being

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Authors: Arega Shumetie Ademe, Belay Kassa, Degye Goshu, Majaliwa Mwanjalolo

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Currently the world economy is suffering from one critical problem, climate change. Some studies done before identified that impact of the problem is region specific means in some part of the world (temperate zone) there is improvement in agricultural performance but in some others like in the tropics there is drastic reduction in crop production and crop income. Climate variability is becoming dominant cause of short-term fluctuation in rain-fed agricultural production and income of developing countries. The purely rain-fed Ethiopian agriculture is the most vulnerable sector to the risks and impacts of climate variability. Thus, this study tried to identify impact of climate variability on crop income of smallholders in Ethiopia. The research used eight rounded unbalanced panel data from 1994- 2014 collected from six villages in the study area. After having all diagnostic tests the research used fixed effect method of regression. Based on the regression result rainfall and temperature deviation from their respective long term averages have negative and significant effect on crop income. Other extreme devastating shocks like flood, storm and frost, which are sourced from climate variability, have significant and negative effect on crop income of households’. Parameters that notify rainfall inconsistency like late start, variation in availability at growing season, and early cessation are critical problems for crop income of smallholder households as to the model result. Given this, impact of climate variability is not consistent in different agro-ecologies of the country. Rainfall variability has similar impact on crop income in different agro-ecology, but variation in temperature affects cold agro-ecology villages negatively and significantly, while it has positive effect in warm villages. Parameters that represent rainfall inconsistency have similar impact in both agro-ecologies and the aggregate model regression. This implies climate variability sourced from rainfall inconsistency is the main problem of Ethiopian agriculture especially the crop production sub-sector of smallholder households.

Keywords: climate variability, crop income, household, rainfall, temperature

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Authors: Raed Alsufyani, Hissam Tawfik, Victor Chang, Muthu Ramachandran

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This study investigates the factors that influence the decision by players in the healthcare sector to embrace Cloud Business Intelligence Technology with a focus on healthcare organizations in Saudi Arabia. To bring this matter into perspective, this study primarily considers the Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE) framework and the Human Organization-Technology (HOT) fit model. A survey was hypothetically designed based on literature review and was carried out online. Quantitative data obtained was processed from descriptive and one-way frequency statistics to inferential and regression analysis. Data were analysed to establish factors that influence the decision to adopt Cloud Business intelligence technology in the healthcare sector. The implication of the identified factors was measured, and all assumptions were tested. 66.70% of participants in healthcare organization backed the intention to adopt cloud business intelligence system. 99.4% of these participants considered security concerns and privacy risk have been the most significant factors in the adoption of cloud Business Intelligence (CBI) system. Through regression analysis hypothesis testing point that usefulness, service quality, relative advantage, IT infrastructure preparedness, organization structure; vendor support, perceived technical competence, government support, and top management support positively and significantly influence the adoption of (CBI) system. The paper presents quantitative phase that is a part of an on-going project. The project will be based on the consequences learned from this study.

Keywords: cloud computing, business intelligence, HOT-fit model, TOE, healthcare and innovation adoption

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Authors: Jui-Chen Huang

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This research used artificial intelligence method to explore elderly’s opinions on the reuse of telecare, its effect on their service quality, satisfaction and the relationship between customer perceived value and intention to reuse. This study conducted a questionnaire survey on the elderly. A total of 124 valid copies of a questionnaire were obtained. It adopted Backpropagation Network (BPN) to propose an effective and feasible analysis method, which is different from the traditional method. Two third of the total samples (82 samples) were taken as the training data, and the one third of the samples (42 samples) were taken as the testing data. The training and testing data RMSE (root mean square error) are 0.022 and 0.009 in the BPN, respectively. As shown, the errors are acceptable. On the other hand, the training and testing data RMSE are 0.100 and 0.099 in the regression model, respectively. In addition, the results showed the service quality has the greatest effects on the intention to reuse, followed by the satisfaction, and perceived value. This result of the Backpropagation Network method is better than the regression analysis. This result can be used as a reference for future research.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, backpropagation network (BPN), elderly, reuse, telecare

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Authors: Birome Holo Ba, Christian Prins, Caroline Prodhon

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Optimization is an important aspect of logistics management. It can reduce significantly logistics costs and also be a good tool for decision support. In this paper, we address a planning problem specific to biomass supply chain. We propose a new mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model dealing with different feed stock production operations such as harvesting, packing, storage, pre-processing and transportation, with the objective of minimizing the total logistic cost of the system on a regional basis. It determines the optimal number of harvesting machine, the fleet size of trucks for transportation and the amount of each type of biomass harvested, stored and pre-processed in each period to satisfy demands of refineries in each period. We illustrate the effectiveness of the proposal model with a numerical example, a case study in Aube (France department), which gives preliminary and interesting, results on a small test case.

Keywords: biomass logistics, supply chain, modelling, optimization, bioenergy, biofuels

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Authors: Tomyslav Sledevič, Artūras Serackis, Gintautas Tamulevičius, Dalius Navakauskas

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This paper presents a comparative evaluation of features extraction algorithm for a real-time isolated word recognition system based on FPGA. The Mel-frequency cepstral, linear frequency cepstral, linear predictive and their cepstral coefficients were implemented in hardware/software design. The proposed system was investigated in the speaker-dependent mode for 100 different Lithuanian words. The robustness of features extraction algorithms was tested recognizing the speech records at different signals to noise rates. The experiments on clean records show highest accuracy for Mel-frequency cepstral and linear frequency cepstral coefficients. For records with 15 dB signal to noise rate the linear predictive cepstral coefficients give best result. The hard and soft part of the system is clocked on 50 MHz and 100 MHz accordingly. For the classification purpose, the pipelined dynamic time warping core was implemented. The proposed word recognition system satisfies the real-time requirements and is suitable for applications in embedded systems.

Keywords: isolated word recognition, features extraction, MFCC, LFCC, LPCC, LPC, FPGA, DTW

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Authors: Trung Hieu Tran, Jesse O'Hanley, Russell Fowler

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When in-wheel wireless charging technology for electric vehicles becomes mature, a need for such integrated charging stations network development is essential. In this paper, we thus investigate the optimisation problem of in-wheel wireless electric vehicle charging network design. A mixed-integer linear programming model is formulated to solve into optimality the problem. In addition, a meta-heuristic algorithm is proposed for efficiently solving large-sized instances within a reasonable computation time. A parallel computing strategy is integrated into the algorithm to speed up its computation time. Experimental results carried out on the benchmark instances show that our model and algorithm can find the optimal solutions and their potential for practical applications.

Keywords: electric vehicle, wireless charging station, mathematical programming, meta-heuristic algorithm, parallel computing

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Authors: E. Asadollahi-Yazdi, J. Gardan, P. Lafon

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Nowadays, manufactures are encountered with production of different version of products due to quality, cost and time constraints. On the other hand, Additive Manufacturing (AM) as a production method based on CAD model disrupts the design and manufacturing cycle with new parameters. To consider these issues, the researchers utilized Design For Manufacturing (DFM) approach for AM but until now there is no integrated approach for design and manufacturing of product through the AM. So, this paper aims to provide a general methodology for managing the different production issues, as well as, support the interoperability with AM process and different Product Life Cycle Management tools. The problem is that the models of System Engineering which is used for managing complex systems cannot support the product evolution and its impact on the product life cycle. Therefore, it seems necessary to provide a general methodology for managing the product’s diversities which is created by using AM. This methodology must consider manufacture and assembly during product design as early as possible in the design stage. The latest approach of DFM, as a methodology to analyze the system comprehensively, integrates manufacturing constraints in the numerical model in upstream. So, DFM for AM is used to import the characteristics of AM into the design and manufacturing process of a hybrid product to manage the criteria coming from AM. Also, the research presents an integrated design method in order to take into account the knowledge of layers manufacturing technologies. For this purpose, the interface model based on the skin and skeleton concepts is provided, the usage and manufacturing skins are used to show the functional surface of the product. Also, the material flow and link between the skins are demonstrated by usage and manufacturing skeletons. Therefore, this integrated approach is a helpful methodology for designer and manufacturer in different decisions like material and process selection as well as, evaluation of product manufacturability.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, 3D printing, design for manufacturing, integrated design, interoperability

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Authors: Hussain A. Alkharusi, Said S. Aldhafri, Hilal Z. Alnabhani, Muna Alkalbani

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Analysing classroom assessments is one of the responsibilities of the teacher. It aims improving teacher’s instruction and assessment as well as student learning. The present study investigated factors that might explain variation in teachers’ practices regarding analysis of classroom assessments. The factors considered in the investigation included gender, in-service assessment training, teaching load, teaching experience, knowledge in assessment, attitude towards quantitative aspects of assessment, and self-perceived competence in analysing assessments. Participants were 246 in-service teachers in Oman. Results of a stepwise multiple linear regression analysis revealed that self-perceived competence was the only significant factor explaining the variance in teachers’ analysis of assessments. Implications for research and practice are discussed.

Keywords: analysis of assessment, classroom assessment, in-service teachers, self-competence

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Authors: Hyun-Woo Cho

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The real-time fault monitoring and diagnosis of large scale production processes is helpful and necessary in order to operate industrial process safely and efficiently producing good final product quality. Unusual and abnormal events of the process may have a serious impact on the process such as malfunctions or breakdowns. This work try to utilize process measurement data obtained in an on-line basis for the safe and some fault-free operation of industrial processes. To this end, this work evaluated the proposed intelligent process data monitoring framework based on a simulation process. The monitoring scheme extracts the fault pattern in the reduced space for the reliable data representation. Moreover, this work shows the results of using linear and nonlinear techniques for the monitoring purpose. It has shown that the nonlinear technique produced more reliable monitoring results and outperforms linear methods. The adoption of the qualitative monitoring model helps to reduce the sensitivity of the fault pattern to noise.

Keywords: process data, data mining, process operation, real-time monitoring

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Authors: Jihene Jlassi, Ahmed Frikha, Wazna Kortli

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The objectives of Nurse-Patient Assignment are the minimization of the overall hospital cost and the maximization of nurses ‘preferences. This paper aims to assess nurses' satisfaction related to the implementation of patient acuity tool-based assignments. So, we used an integer linear program that assigns patients to nurses while balancing nurse workloads. Then, the proposed model is applied to the Paediatrics Department at Kasserine Hospital Tunisia. Where patients need special acuities and high-level nursing skills and care. Hence, numerical results suggested that proposed nurse-patient assignment models can achieve a balanced assignment

Keywords: nurse-patient assignment, mathematical model, logistics, pediatrics department, balanced assignment

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Authors: Amir Sharifi Miavaghi

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It is believed recombination mechnisms in graphene-bonded perovskite solar cells based on numerical model in which doped-graphene structures are employed as anode/cathode bonding semiconductor. Moreover, th‌‌‌‌e da‌‌‌‌‌rk-li‌‌‌‌‌ght c‌‌‌‌urrent d‌‌‌‌ens‌‌‌‌ity-vo‌‌‌‌‌‌‌ltage density-voltage cu‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌rves are investigated by regression analysis. L‌‌‌oss m‌‌‌‌echa‌‌‌‌nisms suc‌‌‌h a‌‌‌‌‌‌s ba‌‌‌‌ck c‌‌‌ontact b‌‌‌‌‌arrier, d‌‌‌‌eep surface defect i‌‌‌‌n t‌‌‌‌‌‌‌he adsorbent la‌‌‌yer is det‌‌‌‌‌ermined b‌‌‌y adapting th‌‌‌e sim‌‌‌‌‌ulated ce‌‌‌‌‌ll perfor‌‌‌‌‌mance to t‌‌‌‌he measure‌‌‌‌ments us‌‌‌‌ing the diffe‌‌‌‌‌‌rential evolu‌‌‌‌‌tion of th‌‌‌‌e global optimization algorithm. T‌‌‌‌he performance of t‌‌‌he c‌‌‌‌ell i‌‌‌‌n the connection proc‌‌‌‌‌ess incl‌‌‌‌‌‌udes J-V cur‌‌‌‌‌‌ves that are examined at di‌‌‌‌‌fferent tempe‌‌‌‌‌‌‌ratures an‌‌‌d op‌‌‌‌en cir‌‌‌‌cuit vol‌‌‌‌tage (V) und‌‌‌‌er differ‌‌‌‌‌ent light intensities as a function of temperature. Ba‌‌‌‌sed o‌‌‌n t‌‌‌he prop‌‌‌‌osed nu‌‌‌‌‌merical mod‌‌‌‌el a‌‌‌‌nd the acquired lo‌‌‌‌ss mecha‌‌‌‌‌‌nisms, our approach can be used to improve the efficiency of the solar cell further. Due to the high demand for alternative energy sources, solar cells are good alternatives for energy storage using the photovoltaic phenomenon.

Keywords: numerical model, recombination mechanism, graphen, perovskite solarcell

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Authors: Pavlo Selyshchev

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A theoretical approach to describe kinetic of heat transfer between an irradiated sample and environment is developed via formalism of the Complex systems and kinetic equations. The irradiated material is a metastable system with non-linear feedbacks, which can give rise to different regimes of buildup and annealing of radiation-induced defects, heating and heat transfer with environment. Irradiation with energetic particles heats the sample and produces defects of the crystal lattice of the sample. The crystal with defects accumulates extra (non-thermal) energy, which is transformed into heat during the defect annealing. Any increase of temperature leads to acceleration of defect annealing, to additional transformation of non-thermal energy into heat and to further growth of the temperature. Thus a non-linear feedback is formed. It is shown that at certain conditions of irradiation this non-linear feedback leads to self-oscillations of the defect density, the temperature of the irradiated sample and the heat transfer between the sample and environment. Simulation and analysis of these phenomena is performed. The frequency of the self-oscillations is obtained. It is determined that the period of the self-oscillations is varied from minutes to several hours depending on conditions of irradiation and properties of the sample. Obtaining results are compared with experimental ones.

Keywords: irradiation, heat transfer, non-linear feed-back, self-oscillations

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Authors: Jincan Li, Mingyu Gao, Zhiwei He, Yuxiang Yang, Zhongfei Yu, Yuanyuan Liu

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Building an appropriate motion model is crucial for trajectory planning of robots and determines the operational quality directly. An adaptive acceleration and deceleration motion planning based on trigonometric functions for the end-effector of 6-DOF robots in Cartesian coordinate system is proposed in this paper. This method not only achieves the smooth translation motion and rotation motion by constructing a continuous jerk model, but also automatically adjusts the parameters of trigonometric functions according to the variable inputs and the kinematic constraints. The results of computer simulation show that this method is correct and effective to achieve the adaptive motion planning for linear trajectories.

Keywords: kinematic constraints, motion planning, trigonometric function, 6-DOF robots

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Authors: Senol Dogan, Gunay Karli

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Identification of relevant publications based on a Medline query is time-consuming and error-prone. An all based process has the potential to solve this problem without any manual work. To the best of our knowledge, our study is the first to investigate the ability of machine learning to identify relevant articles accurately. 5 different machine learning algorithms were tested using 23 predictors based on several metadata fields attached to publications. We find that the Boosted model is the best-performing algorithm and its overall accuracy is 96%. In addition, specificity and sensitivity of the algorithm is 97 and 93%, respectively. As a result of the work, we understood that we can apply the same procedure to understand cancer gene expression big data.

Keywords: prediction of publications, machine learning, algorithms, bariatric surgery, comparison of algorithms, boosted, tree, logistic regression, ANN model

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Authors: Hamed Yousefi, Farnaz Mohammadi, Niloufar Mirian, Navid Amini

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Investigating possible capacities of visual functions where adapted mechanisms can enhance the capability of sports trainees is a promising area of research, not only from the cognitive viewpoint but also in terms of unlimited applications in sports training. In this paper, the visual evoked potential (VEP) and event-related potential (ERP) signals of amateur and trained volleyball players in a pilot study were processed. Two groups of amateur and trained subjects are asked to imagine themselves in the state of receiving a ball while they are shown a simulated volleyball field. The proposed method is based on a set of time-frequency features using algorithms such as Gabor filter, continuous wavelet transform, and a multi-stage wavelet decomposition that are extracted from VEP signals that can be indicative of being amateur or trained. The linear discriminant classifier achieves the accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of 100% when the average of the repetitions of the signal corresponding to the task is used. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the feasibility of a fast, robust, and reliable feature/model determination as a neurofeedback parameter to be utilized for improving the volleyball players’ performance. The proposed measure has potential applications in brain-computer interface technology where a real-time biomarker is needed.

Keywords: visual evoked potential, time-frequency feature extraction, short-time Fourier transform, event-related spectrum potential classification, linear discriminant analysis

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Authors: Zelalem Markos Borko

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Work-related stress is a reaction that occurs when the work weight progress toward becoming excessive. Therefore, unless properly managed, stress leads to high employee turnover, decreased performance, illness and absenteeism. Yet, little has been addressed regarding work-related stress and its predictors in the study area. Therefore, the objective of this study was to assess stress prevalence and its predictors in the study area. To that effect, a cross-sectional study design was conducted on 281 employees from the Ethiopian Federal Bureau of Investigation by using stratified random sampling techniques. Survey questionnaire scales were employed to collect data. Data were analyzed by percentage, Pearson correlation coefficients, simple linear regression, multiple linear regressions, independent t-test and one-way ANOVA statistical techniques. In the present study13.9% of participants faced high stress, whereas 13.5% of participants faced low stress and the rest 72.6% of officers experienced moderate stress. There is no significant group difference among workers due to age, gender, marital status, educational level, years of service and police rank. This study concludes that factors such as role conflict, performance over-utilization, role ambiguity, and qualitative and quantitative role overload together predict 39.6% of work-related stress. This indicates that 60.4% of the variation in stress is explained by other factors, so other additional research should be done to identify additional factors predicting stress. To prevent occupational stress among police, the Ethiopian Federal Bureau of Investigation should develop strategies based on factors that will help to develop stress reduction management.

Keywords: work-related stress, Ethiopian federal bureau of investigation, predictors, Addis Ababa

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Authors: Strahinja Kovačević, Jelena Vladić, Senka Vidović, Zoran Zeković, Lidija Jevrić, Sanja Podunavac Kuzmanović

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Supercritical extracts of highly valuated medicinal plant Satureja montana were prepared by application of supercritical carbon dioxide extraction in the carbon dioxide pressure range from 125 to 350 bar and temperature range from 40 to 60°C. Using GC/MS method of analysis chemical profiles (aromatic constituents) of S. montana extracts were obtained. Self-training artificial neural networks were applied to predict the retention time of the analyzed terpenes in GC/MS system. The best ANN model obtained was multilayer perceptron (MLP 11-11-1). Hidden activation was tanh and output activation was identity with Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno training algorithm. Correlation measures of the obtained network were the following: R(training) = 0.9975, R(test) = 0.9971 and R(validation) = 0.9999. The comparison of the experimental and predicted retention times of the analyzed compounds showed very high correlation (R = 0.9913) and significant predictive power of the established neural network.

Keywords: ANN regression, GC/MS, Satureja montana, terpenes

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Authors: Sam Weber, Deepak Mishra, Susan Wilde, Elizabeth Kramer

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The frequency and severity of cyanobacteria harmful blooms (CyanoHABs) have been increasing over time, with point and non-point source eutrophication and shifting climate paradigms being blamed as the primary culprits. Excessive nutrients, warm temperatures, quiescent water, and heavy and less regular rainfall create more conducive environments for CyanoHABs. CyanoHABs have the potential to produce a spectrum of toxins that cause gastrointestinal stress, organ failure, and even death in humans and animals. To promote enhanced, proactive CyanoHAB management, risk modeling using geospatial tools can act as predictive mechanisms to supplement current CyanoHAB monitoring, management and mitigation efforts. The risk maps would empower water managers to focus their efforts on high risk water bodies in an attempt to prevent CyanoHABs before they occur, and/or more diligently observe those waterbodies. For this research, exploratory spatial data analysis techniques were used to identify the strongest predicators for CyanoHAB blooms based on remote sensing-derived cyanobacteria cell density values for 771 waterbodies in the Georgia Piedmont and landscape characteristics of their watersheds. In-situ datasets for cyanobacteria cell density, nutrients, temperature, and rainfall patterns are not widely available, so free gridded geospatial datasets were used as proxy variables for assessing CyanoHAB risk. For example, the percent of a watershed that is agriculture was used as a proxy for nutrient loading, and the summer precipitation within a watershed was used as a proxy for water quiescence. Cyanobacteria cell density values were calculated using atmospherically corrected images from the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-2A satellite and multispectral instrument sensor at a 10-meter ground resolution. Seventeen explanatory variables were calculated for each watershed utilizing the multi-petabyte geospatial catalogs available within the Google Earth Engine cloud computing interface. The seventeen variables were then used in a multiple linear regression model, and the strongest predictors of cyanobacteria cell density were selected for the final regression model. The seventeen explanatory variables included land cover composition, winter and summer temperature and precipitation data, topographic derivatives, vegetation index anomalies, and soil characteristics. Watershed maximum summer temperature, percent agriculture, percent forest, percent impervious, and waterbody area emerged as the strongest predictors of cyanobacteria cell density with an adjusted R-squared value of 0.31 and a p-value ~ 0. The final regression equation was used to make a normalized cyanobacteria cell density index, and a Jenks Natural Break classification was used to assign waterbodies designations of low, medium, or high risk. Of the 771 waterbodies, 24.38% were low risk, 37.35% were medium risk, and 38.26% were high risk. This study showed that there are significant relationships between free geospatial datasets representing summer maximum temperatures, nutrient loading associated with land use and land cover, and the area of a waterbody with cyanobacteria cell density. This data analytics approach to CyanoHAB risk assessment corroborated the literature-established environmental triggers for CyanoHABs, and presents a novel approach for CyanoHAB risk mapping in waterbodies across the greater southeastern United States.

Keywords: cyanobacteria, land use/land cover, remote sensing, risk mapping

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Authors: Seema Paul, John Mango Magero, Prosun Bhattacharya, Zahra Kalantari, Steve W. Lyon

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The purpose of this review paper is to develop an understanding of lake hydrodynamics and the potential climate impact on the Lake Victoria (LV) catchment scale. This paper briefly discusses the main problems of lake hydrodynamics and its’ solutions that are related to quality assessment and climate effect. An empirical methodology in modeling and mapping have considered for understanding lake hydrodynamic and visualizing the long-term observational daily, monthly, and yearly mean dataset results by using geographical information system (GIS) and Comsol techniques. Data were obtained for the whole lake and five different meteorological stations, and several geoprocessing tools with spatial analysis are considered to produce results. The linear regression analyses were developed to build climate scenarios and a linear trend on lake rainfall data for a long period. A potential evapotranspiration rate has been described by the MODIS and the Thornthwaite method. The rainfall effect on lake water level observed by Partial Differential Equations (PDE), and water quality has manifested by a few nutrients parameters. The study revealed monthly and yearly rainfall varies with monthly and yearly maximum and minimum temperatures, and the rainfall is high during cool years and the temperature is high associated with below and average rainfall patterns. Rising temperatures are likely to accelerate evapotranspiration rates and more evapotranspiration is likely to lead to more rainfall, drought is more correlated with temperature and cloud is more correlated with rainfall. There is a trend in lake rainfall and long-time rainfall on the lake water surface has affected the lake level. The onshore and offshore have been concentrated by initial literature nutrients data. The study recommended that further studies should consider fully lake bathymetry development with flow analysis and its’ water balance, hydro-meteorological processes, solute transport, wind hydrodynamics, pollution and eutrophication these are crucial for lake water quality, climate impact assessment, and water sustainability.

Keywords: climograph, climate scenarios, evapotranspiration, linear trend flow, rainfall event on LV, concentration

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Authors: A. A. James, A. O. Adesanya, M. R. Odekunle, D. G. Yakubu

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This paper examines the development of one step, five hybrid point method for the solution of first order initial value problems. We adopted the method of collocation and interpolation of power series approximate solution to generate a continuous linear multistep method. The continuous linear multistep method was evaluated at selected grid points to give the discrete linear multistep method. The method was implemented using a constant order predictor of order seven over an overlapping interval. The basic properties of the derived corrector was investigated and found to be zero stable, consistent and convergent. The region of absolute stability was also investigated. The method was tested on some numerical experiments and found to compete favorably with the existing methods.

Keywords: interpolation, approximate solution, collocation, differential system, half step, converges, block method, efficiency

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Authors: M. A. C. S. Sampath Fernando, James M. Curran, Renate Meyer

Abstract:

Forensic DNA analysis has received much attention over the last three decades, due to its incredible usefulness in human identification. The statistical interpretation of DNA evidence is recognised as one of the most mature fields in forensic science. Peak heights in an Electropherogram (EPG) are approximately proportional to the amount of template DNA in the original sample being tested. A stutter is a minor peak in an EPG, which is not masking as an allele of a potential contributor, and considered as an artefact that is presumed to be arisen due to miscopying or slippage during the PCR. Stutter peaks are mostly analysed in terms of stutter ratio that is calculated relative to the corresponding parent allele height. Analysis of mixture profiles has always been problematic in evidence interpretation, especially with the presence of PCR artefacts like stutters. Unlike binary and semi-continuous models; continuous models assign a probability (as a continuous weight) for each possible genotype combination, and significantly enhances the use of continuous peak height information resulting in more efficient reliable interpretations. Therefore, the presence of a sound methodology to distinguish between stutters and real alleles is essential for the accuracy of the interpretation. Sensibly, any such method has to be able to focus on modelling stutter peaks. Bayesian nonparametric methods provide increased flexibility in applied statistical modelling. Mixture models are frequently employed as fundamental data analysis tools in clustering and classification of data and assume unidentified heterogeneous sources for data. In model-based clustering, each unknown source is reflected by a cluster, and the clusters are modelled using parametric models. Specifying the number of components in finite mixture models, however, is practically difficult even though the calculations are relatively simple. Infinite mixture models, in contrast, do not require the user to specify the number of components. Instead, a Dirichlet process, which is an infinite-dimensional generalization of the Dirichlet distribution, is used to deal with the problem of a number of components. Chinese restaurant process (CRP), Stick-breaking process and Pólya urn scheme are frequently used as Dirichlet priors in Bayesian mixture models. In this study, we illustrate an infinite mixture of simple linear regression models for modelling stutter ratio and introduce some modifications to overcome weaknesses associated with CRP.

Keywords: Chinese restaurant process, Dirichlet prior, infinite mixture model, PCR stutter

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Authors: Rika Susanti, Eryati Darwin, Dedi Afandi, Yanwirasti, Syahruddin Said, Noverika Windasari, Zelly Dia Rofinda

Abstract:

Introduction: Blunt head trauma is one of the leading causes of death associated with murders and other deaths involved in criminal acts. Creatine kinase (CKBB) levels have been used as a biomarker for blunt head trauma. Therefore, it is now used as an alternative to an autopsy. The aim of this study is to investigate CKBB levels in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and post-mortem serum in order to deduce the cause and time of death. Method: This investigation was conducted through post-test–only group design involving deaths caused by blunt head trauma, which was compared to deaths caused by ketamine poisoning. Results: There were eight treatment groups, each consisting of six adult rats (Rattus norvegicus) Sprague-Dawley strain. Examinations were done at 0 hours, 1 hour, 2 hours, and 3 hours post-mortem, which followed by brain tissue observation. Data were then analyzed statistically with a repeated-measures general linear model. Conclusion: There were increases in the level of CKBB in CSF and postmortem serum in both blunt head trauma and ketamine poisoning treatment groups. However, there were no significant differences between these two groups.

Keywords: blunt head trauma, CKBB, the cause of death, estimated time of death

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Authors: Nivedita Roy, Aparajita Chattopadhyay

Abstract:

Gender discrimination is already one of the major factors why India is still in the list of the 3rd World Countries, but, when it comes to gender inclusion in the environmental arena, this umbrella concept is quite unheard of by our countrymen. The main objective was to assess gender equality for the environment through calculating Environment and Gender Index on a country level, India, in this case. 22 states out of 29 were considered for calculation. Also, out of the 72 countries chosen by IUCN to calculate EGI, the lower middle income group of countries was chosen to assess the position of India, also a lower middle income group country, among them. Linear Regression is executed through SPSS and simple graphs and tables are prepared through MS-EXCEL for analysis. India portrays good governance, reporting activities well to the UN but in terms of basic livelihood and gender equality, the performance is comparatively weak.

Keywords: environment, gender, livelihood, rights, participation, development, conservation

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Authors: Sammani Danwawu Abdullahi

Abstract:

Vertex Enumeration Algorithms explore the methods and procedures of generating the vertices of general polyhedra formed by system of equations or inequalities. These problems of enumerating the extreme points (vertices) of general polyhedra are shown to be NP-Hard. This lead to exploring how to count the vertices of general polyhedra without listing them. This is also shown to be #P-Complete. Some fully polynomial randomized approximation schemes (fpras) of counting the vertices of some special classes of polyhedra associated with Down-Sets, Independent Sets, 2-Knapsack problems and 2 x n transportation problems are presented together with some discovered open problems.

Keywords: counting with uncertainties, mathematical programming, optimization, vertex enumeration

Procedia PDF Downloads 357

Authors: K. E. Ch. Vidyasagar, M. Moghavvemi, T. S. S. T. Prabhat

Abstract:

Epilepsy is a global problem, and with seizures eluding even the smartest of diagnoses a requirement for automatic detection of the same using electroencephalogram (EEG) would have a huge impact in diagnosis of the disorder. Among a multitude of methods for automatic epilepsy detection, one should find the best method out, based on accuracy, for classification. This paper reasons out, and rationalizes, the best methods for classification. Accuracy is based on the classifier, and thus this paper discusses classifiers like quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA), classification and regression tree (CART), support vector machine (SVM), naive Bayes classifier (NBC), linear discriminant analysis (LDA), K-nearest neighbor (KNN) and artificial neural networks (ANN). Results show that ANN is the most accurate of all the above stated classifiers with 97.7% accuracy, 97.25% specificity and 98.28% sensitivity in its merit. This is followed closely by SVM with 1% variation in result. These results would certainly help researchers choose the best classifier for detection of epilepsy.

Keywords: classification, seizure, KNN, SVM, LDA, ANN, epilepsy

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Authors: Niya Chen, Jennifer Chan

Abstract:

In the financial market, risk management helps to minimize potential loss and maximize profit. There are two ways to assess risks; the first way is to calculate the risk directly based on the volatility. The most common risk measurements are Value at Risk (VaR), sharp ratio, and beta. Alternatively, we could look at the quantile of the return to assess the risk. Popular return models such as GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) focus on modeling the mean of the return distribution via capturing the volatility dynamics; however, the quantile/expectile method will give us an idea of the distribution with the extreme return value. It will allow us to forecast VaR using return which is direct information. The advantage of using these non-parametric methods is that it is not bounded by the distribution assumptions from the parametric method. But the difference between them is that expectile uses a second-order loss function while quantile regression uses a first-order loss function. We consider several quantile functions, different volatility measures, and estimates from some volatility models. To estimate the expectile of the model, we use Realized Conditional Autoregressive Expectile (CARE) model with the bayesian method to achieve this. We would like to see if our proposed models outperform existing models in cryptocurrency, and we will test it by using Bitcoin mainly as well as Ethereum.

Keywords: expectile, CARE Model, CARR Model, quantile, cryptocurrency, Value at Risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 109