Search results for: class dynamics
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5101

Search results for: class dynamics

3871 A Data-Driven Compartmental Model for Dengue Forecasting and Covariate Inference

Authors: Yichao Liu, Peter Fransson, Julian Heidecke, Jonas Wallin, Joacim Rockloev

Abstract:

Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral disease, poses a significant public health challenge in endemic tropical or subtropical countries, including Sri Lanka. To reveal insights into the complexity of the dynamics of this disease and study the drivers, a comprehensive model capable of both robust forecasting and insightful inference of drivers while capturing the co-circulating of several virus strains is essential. However, existing studies mostly focus on only one aspect at a time and do not integrate and carry insights across the siloed approach. While mechanistic models are developed to capture immunity dynamics, they are often oversimplified and lack integration of all the diverse drivers of disease transmission. On the other hand, purely data-driven methods lack constraints imposed by immuno-epidemiological processes, making them prone to overfitting and inference bias. This research presents a hybrid model that combines machine learning techniques with mechanistic modelling to overcome the limitations of existing approaches. Leveraging eight years of newly reported dengue case data, along with socioeconomic factors, such as human mobility, weekly climate data from 2011 to 2018, genetic data detecting the introduction and presence of new strains, and estimates of seropositivity for different districts in Sri Lanka, we derive a data-driven vector (SEI) to human (SEIR) model across 16 regions in Sri Lanka at the weekly time scale. By conducting ablation studies, the lag effects allowing delays up to 12 weeks of time-varying climate factors were determined. The model demonstrates superior predictive performance over a pure machine learning approach when considering lead times of 5 and 10 weeks on data withheld from model fitting. It further reveals several interesting interpretable findings of drivers while adjusting for the dynamics and influences of immunity and introduction of a new strain. The study uncovers strong influences of socioeconomic variables: population density, mobility, household income and rural vs. urban population. The study reveals substantial sensitivity to the diurnal temperature range and precipitation, while mean temperature and humidity appear less important in the study location. Additionally, the model indicated sensitivity to vegetation index, both max and average. Predictions on testing data reveal high model accuracy. Overall, this study advances the knowledge of dengue transmission in Sri Lanka and demonstrates the importance of incorporating hybrid modelling techniques to use biologically informed model structures with flexible data-driven estimates of model parameters. The findings show the potential to both inference of drivers in situations of complex disease dynamics and robust forecasting models.

Keywords: compartmental model, climate, dengue, machine learning, social-economic

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3870 A Transient Coupled Numerical Analysis of the Flow of Magnetorheological Fluids in Closed Domains

Authors: Wael Elsaady, S. Olutunde Oyadiji, Adel Nasser

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The non-linear flow characteristics of magnetorheological (MR) fluids in MR dampers are studied via a coupled numerical approach that incorporates a two-phase flow model. The approach couples the Finite Element (FE) modelling of the damper magnetic circuit, with the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis of the flow field in the damper. The two-phase flow CFD model accounts for the effect of fluid compressibility due to the presence of liquid and gas in the closed domain of the damper. The dynamic mesh model included in ANSYS/Fluent CFD solver is used to simulate the movement of the MR damper piston in order to perform the fluid excitation. The two-phase flow analysis is studied by both Volume-Of-Fluid (VOF) model and mixture model that are included in ANSYS/Fluent. The CFD models show that the hysteretic behaviour of MR dampers is due to the effect of fluid compressibility. The flow field shows the distributions of pressure, velocity, and viscosity contours. In particular, it shows the high non-Newtonian viscosity in the affected fluid regions by the magnetic field and the low Newtonian viscosity elsewhere. Moreover, the dependence of gas volume fraction on the liquid pressure inside the damper is predicted by the mixture model. The presented approach targets a better understanding of the complicated flow characteristics of viscoplastic fluids that could be applied in different applications.

Keywords: viscoplastic fluid, magnetic FE analysis, computational fluid dynamics, two-phase flow, dynamic mesh, user-defined functions

Procedia PDF Downloads 174
3869 Using Time Series NDVI to Model Land Cover Change: A Case Study in the Berg River Catchment Area, Western Cape, South Africa

Authors: Adesuyi Ayodeji Steve, Zahn Munch

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This study investigates the use of MODIS NDVI to identify agricultural land cover change areas on an annual time step (2007 - 2012) and characterize the trend in the study area. An ISODATA classification was performed on the MODIS imagery to select only the agricultural class producing 3 class groups namely: agriculture, agriculture/semi-natural, and semi-natural. NDVI signatures were created for the time series to identify areas dominated by cereals and vineyards with the aid of ancillary, pictometry and field sample data. The NDVI signature curve and training samples aided in creating a decision tree model in WEKA 3.6.9. From the training samples two classification models were built in WEKA using decision tree classifier (J48) algorithm; Model 1 included ISODATA classification and Model 2 without, both having accuracies of 90.7% and 88.3% respectively. The two models were used to classify the whole study area, thus producing two land cover maps with Model 1 and 2 having classification accuracies of 77% and 80% respectively. Model 2 was used to create change detection maps for all the other years. Subtle changes and areas of consistency (unchanged) were observed in the agricultural classes and crop practices over the years as predicted by the land cover classification. 41% of the catchment comprises of cereals with 35% possibly following a crop rotation system. Vineyard largely remained constant over the years, with some conversion to vineyard (1%) from other land cover classes. Some of the changes might be as a result of misclassification and crop rotation system.

Keywords: change detection, land cover, modis, NDVI

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3868 A Single Stage Rocket Using Solid Fuels in Conventional Propulsion Systems

Authors: John R Evans, Sook-Ying Ho, Rey Chin

Abstract:

This paper describes the research investigations orientated to the starting and propelling of a solid fuel rocket engine which operates as combined cycle propulsion system using three thrust pulses. The vehicle has been designed to minimise the cost of launching small number of Nano/Cube satellites into low earth orbits (LEO). A technology described in this paper is a ground-based launch propulsion system which starts the rocket vertical motion immediately causing air flow to enter the ramjet’s intake. Current technology has a ramjet operation predicted to be able to start high subsonic speed of 280 m/s using a liquid fuel ramjet (LFRJ). The combined cycle engine configuration is in many ways fundamentally different from the LFRJ. A much lower subsonic start speed is highly desirable since the use of a mortar to obtain the latter speed for rocket means a shorter launcher length can be utilized. This paper examines the means and has some performance calculations, including Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis of air-intake at suitable operational conditions, 3-DOF point mass trajectory analysis of multi-pulse propulsion system (where pulse ignition time and thrust magnitude can be controlled), etc. of getting a combined cycle rocket engine use in a single stage vehicle.

Keywords: combine cycle propulsion system, low earth orbit launch vehicle, computational fluid dynamics analysis, 3dof trajectory analysis

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3867 Microbial Dynamics and Sensory Traits of Spanish- and Greek-Style Table Olives (Olea europaea L. cv. Ascolana tenera) Fermented with Sea Fennel (Crithmum maritimum L.)

Authors: Antonietta Maoloni, Federica Cardinali, Vesna Milanović, Andrea Osimani, Ilario Ferrocino, Maria Rita Corvaglia, Luca Cocolin, Lucia Aquilanti

Abstract:

Table olives (Olea europaea L.) are among the most important fermented vegetables all over the world, while sea fennel (Crithmum maritimum L.) is an emerging food crop with interesting nutritional and sensory traits. Both of them are characterized by the presence of several bioactive compounds with potential beneficial health effects, thus representing two valuable substrates for the manufacture of innovative vegetable-based preserves. Given these premises, the present study was aimed at exploring the co-fermentation of table olives and sea fennel to produce new high-value preserves. Spanish style or Greek style processing method and the use of a multiple strain starter were explored. The preserves were evaluated for their microbial dynamics and key sensory traits. During the fermentation, a progressive pH reduction was observed. Mesophilic lactobacilli, mesophilic lactococci, and yeasts were the main microbial groups at the end of the fermentation, whereas Enterobacteriaceae decreased during fermentation. An evolution of the microbiota was revealed by metataxonomic analysis, with Lactiplantibacillus plantarum dominating in the late stage of fermentation, irrespective of processing method and use of the starter. Greek style preserves resulted in more crunchy and less fibrous than Spanish style one and were preferred by trained panelists.

Keywords: lactic acid bacteria, Lactiplantibacillus plantarum, metataxonomy, panel test, rock samphire

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3866 In the Eyes of Basilyo at Crispin: A Phenomenological Lived Experience of the Filipino Children of Parents with Mental Illness

Authors: Cely D. Magpantay, Geolynne Marie Adel, Cire-rine Mae Concepcion, Dessa Jean Orcajada, Jorgette Andrea Santos, Orian Laurace Canaman

Abstract:

Mental illness initiative is very relevant in promoting the Mental Health Bill act of 2017. In the Philippines alone, the public is more open and receptive to people at risks with a mental condition. Although it is uncommon that parents can become more psychologically unfit compared to their children, research shows that parents who are suffering from mental illness have a more significant negative effect than another family member. The impact of parent’s mental health can put their children more susceptible to acquire the same disorder. The aim of the study is to explore the lived experiences of children whose parents suffered from mental illness. It discusses how their parent's mental condition in, anyway, affects their psychological development. Using Phenomenological Qualitative Research, an in-depth, interview was conducted to five (5) consenting adults who lived with their parents diagnosed with a mental disorder. Results are clustered into four themes. The first theme is the negative emotion towards parents, the second theme is the psychosocial dynamics in caring for the patient, third is accepting the disease, and fourth is a general perspective on the family. Each themes is validated by experts and the participants. This theme generates subcomponent like isolation, shallow relationship and debt of gratitude. Along with these themes comes the fear of having a family emerged. There is a growing need to strengthen the family ties even more because of parent’s mental illness. Therefore, parental mental illness has an effect on the children’s psychological and social development.

Keywords: lived experience in Philippines, mental health, parental mental illness, psychosocial dynamics

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3865 Choosing the Lesser Evil: Tribal Alignment Formation in Civil Wars

Authors: Busra Nur Ozguler Aktel

Abstract:

This research aims to understand the factors that affect the ways in which tribes perceive and respond to violent conflicts in fragile states, given that tribes are essential stakeholders in many conflict-ridden fragile states, whether Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Somalia, Nigeria, or Yemen. It explores the primary questions of why some tribes align with extremist groups while others align with states during civil wars and why some tribes switch alignments. It argues that tribes form and switch alignments based on their perception of threats to their traditional tribal structure (internal dynamics) and clientelist relationships (external dynamics). Put differently; threat perceptions lead them to choose either the state or extremist groups that will more likely secure their traditional structure and patronage networks. This study focuses on Iraqi tribes as a case study. It builds a theory of tribal alignment formation based on ethnographic fieldwork in the Middle East, with a particular focus on Iraqi Sunni tribes living in the Kurdish region of Iraq and Jordan. As a result of the interviews with tribal leaders and members, local journalists, researchers, and politicians, it concludes that complex (re)alignments of tribes can determine the course and outcome of the conflicts, either mitigating or escalating violence. This study contributes to the larger body of conflict management and peacebuilding literature by introducing tribes as non-state actors and exploring their interactions with other actors in civil wars.

Keywords: civil wars, tribes, alignment formation, side-switching, Iraq

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3864 A Study of High Viscosity Oil-Gas Slug Flow Using Gamma Densitometer

Authors: Y. Baba, A. Archibong-Eso, H. Yeung

Abstract:

Experimental study of high viscosity oil-gas flows in horizontal pipelines published in literature has indicated that hydrodynamic slug flow is the dominant flow pattern observed. Investigations have shown that hydrodynamic slugging brings about high instabilities in pressure that can damage production facilities thereby making it inherent to study high viscous slug flow regime so as to improve the understanding of its flow dynamics. Most slug flow models used in the petroleum industry for the design of pipelines together with their closure relationships were formulated based on observations of low viscosity liquid-gas flows. New experimental investigations and data are therefore required to validate these models. In cases where these models underperform, improving upon or building new predictive models and correlations will also depend on the new experimental dataset and further understanding of the flow dynamics in high viscous oil-gas flows. In this study conducted at the Flow laboratory, Oil and Gas Engineering Centre of Cranfield University, slug flow variables such as pressure gradient, mean liquid holdup, frequency and slug length for oil viscosity ranging from 1..0 – 5.5 Pa.s are experimentally investigated and analysed. The study was carried out in a 0.076m ID pipe, two fast sampling gamma densitometer and pressure transducers (differential and point) were used to obtain experimental measurements. Comparison of the measured slug flow parameters to the existing slug flow prediction models available in the literature showed disagreement with high viscosity experimental data thus highlighting the importance of building new predictive models and correlations.

Keywords: gamma densitometer, mean liquid holdup, pressure gradient, slug frequency and slug length

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3863 Influences of Separation of the Boundary Layer in the Reservoir Pressure in the Shock Tube

Authors: Bruno Coelho Lima, Joao F.A. Martos, Paulo G. P. Toro, Israel S. Rego

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The shock tube is a ground-facility widely used in aerospace and aeronautics science and technology for studies on gas dynamic and chemical-physical processes in gases at high-temperature, explosions and dynamic calibration of pressure sensors. A shock tube in its simplest form is comprised of two separate tubes of equal cross-section by a diaphragm. The diaphragm function is to separate the two reservoirs at different pressures. The reservoir containing high pressure is called the Driver, the low pressure reservoir is called Driven. When the diaphragm is broken by pressure difference, a normal shock wave and non-stationary (named Incident Shock Wave) will be formed in the same place of diaphragm and will get around toward the closed end of Driven. When this shock wave reaches the closer end of the Driven section will be completely reflected. Now, the shock wave will interact with the boundary layer that was created by the induced flow by incident shock wave passage. The interaction between boundary layer and shock wave force the separation of the boundary layer. The aim of this paper is to make an analysis of influences of separation of the boundary layer in the reservoir pressure in the shock tube. A comparison among CDF (Computational Fluids Dynamics), experiments test and analytical analysis were performed. For the analytical analysis, some routines in Python was created, in the numerical simulations (Computational Fluids Dynamics) was used the Ansys Fluent, and the experimental tests were used T1 shock tube located in IEAv (Institute of Advanced Studies).

Keywords: boundary layer separation, moving shock wave, shock tube, transient simulation

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3862 Modeling Sediment Transports under Extreme Storm Situation along Persian Gulf North Coast

Authors: Majid Samiee Zenoozian

Abstract:

The Persian Gulf is a bordering sea with an normal depth of 35 m and a supreme depth of 100 m near its narrow appearance. Its lengthen bathymetric axis divorces two main geological shires — the steady Arabian Foreland and the unbalanced Iranian Fold Belt — which are imitated in the conflicting shore and bathymetric morphologies of Arabia and Iran. The sediments were experimented with from 72 offshore positions through an oceanographic cruise in the winter of 2018. Throughout the observation era, several storms and river discharge actions happened, as well as the major flood on record since 1982. Suspended-sediment focus at all three sites varied in reaction to both wave resuspension and advection of river-derived sediments. We used hydrological models to evaluation and associate the wave height and inundation distance required to carriage the rocks inland. Our results establish that no known or possible storm happening on the Makran coast is accomplished of detaching and transporting the boulders. The fluid mud consequently is conveyed seaward due to gravitational forcing. The measured sediment focus and velocity profiles on the shelf provide a strong indication to provision this assumption. The sediment model is joined with a 3D hydrodynamic module in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) model that offers data on estuarine rotation and salinity transport under normal temperature conditions. 3-D sediment transport from model simulations specify dynamic sediment resuspension and transport near zones of highly industrious oyster beds.

Keywords: sediment transport, storm, coast, fluid dynamics

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3861 Social Interaction Dynamics Exploration: The Case Study of El Sherouk City

Authors: Nardine El Bardisy, Wolf Reuter, Ayat Ismail

Abstract:

In Egypt, there is continuous housing demand as a result of rapid population growth. In 1979, this forced the government to establish new urban communities in order to decrease stress around delta. New Urban Communities Authority (NUCA) was formulated to take the responsibly of this new policy. These communities suffer from social life deficiency due to their typology, which is separated island with barriers. New urban communities’ typology results from the influence of neoliberalism movement and modern city planning forms. The lack of social interaction in these communities at present should be enhanced in the future. On a global perspective, sustainable development calls for creating more sustainable communities which include social, economic and environmental aspects. From 1960, planners were highly focusing on the promotion of the social dimension in urban development plans. The research hypothesis states: “It is possible to promote social interaction in new urban communities through a set of socio-spatial recommended strategies that are tailored for Greater Cairo Region context”. In order to test this hypothesis, the case of El-Sherouk city is selected, which represents the typical NUCA development plans. Social interaction indicators were derived from literature and used to explore different social dynamics in the selected case. The tools used for exploring case study are online questionnaires, face to face questionnaires, interviews, and observations. These investigations were analyzed, conclusions and recommendations were set to improve social interaction.

Keywords: new urban communities, modern planning, social interaction, social life

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3860 High Aspect Ratio Micropillar Array Based Microfluidic Viscometer

Authors: Ahmet Erten, Adil Mustafa, Ayşenur Eser, Özlem Yalçın

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We present a new viscometer based on a microfluidic chip with elastic high aspect ratio micropillar arrays. The displacement of pillar tips in flow direction can be used to analyze viscosity of liquid. In our work, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is used to analyze pillar displacement of various micropillar array configurations in flow direction at different viscosities. Following CFD optimization, micro-CNC based rapid prototyping is used to fabricate molds for microfluidic chips. Microfluidic chips are fabricated out of polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) using soft lithography methods with molds machined out of aluminum. Tip displacements of micropillar array (300 µm in diameter and 1400 µm in height) in flow direction are recorded using a microscope mounted camera, and the displacements are analyzed using image processing with an algorithm written in MATLAB. Experiments are performed with water-glycerol solutions mixed at 4 different ratios to attain 1 cP, 5 cP, 10 cP and 15 cP viscosities at room temperature. The prepared solutions are injected into the microfluidic chips using a syringe pump at flow rates from 10-100 mL / hr and the displacement versus flow rate is plotted for different viscosities. A displacement of around 1.5 µm was observed for 15 cP solution at 60 mL / hr while only a 1 µm displacement was observed for 10 cP solution. The presented viscometer design optimization is still in progress for better sensitivity and accuracy. Our microfluidic viscometer platform has potential for tailor made microfluidic chips to enable real time observation and control of viscosity changes in biological or chemical reactions.

Keywords: Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), high aspect ratio, micropillar array, viscometer

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3859 Consensus Reaching Process and False Consensus Effect in a Problem of Portfolio Selection

Authors: Viviana Ventre, Giacomo Di Tollo, Roberta Martino

Abstract:

The portfolio selection problem includes the evaluation of many criteria that are difficult to compare directly and is characterized by uncertain elements. The portfolio selection problem can be modeled as a group decision problem in which several experts are invited to present their assessment. In this context, it is important to study and analyze the process of reaching a consensus among group members. Indeed, due to the various diversities among experts, reaching consensus is not necessarily always simple and easily achievable. Moreover, the concept of consensus is accompanied by the concept of false consensus, which is particularly interesting in the dynamics of group decision-making processes. False consensus can alter the evaluation and selection phase of the alternative and is the consequence of the decision maker's inability to recognize that his preferences are conditioned by subjective structures. The present work aims to investigate the dynamics of consensus attainment in a group decision problem in which equivalent portfolios are proposed. In particular, the study aims to analyze the impact of the subjective structure of the decision-maker during the evaluation and selection phase of the alternatives. Therefore, the experimental framework is divided into three phases. In the first phase, experts are sent to evaluate the characteristics of all portfolios individually, without peer comparison, arriving independently at the selection of the preferred portfolio. The experts' evaluations are used to obtain individual Analytical Hierarchical Processes that define the weight that each expert gives to all criteria with respect to the proposed alternatives. This step provides insight into how the decision maker's decision process develops, step by step, from goal analysis to alternative selection. The second phase includes the description of the decision maker's state through Markov chains. In fact, the individual weights obtained in the first phase can be reviewed and described as transition weights from one state to another. Thus, with the construction of the individual transition matrices, the possible next state of the expert is determined from the individual weights at the end of the first phase. Finally, the experts meet, and the process of reaching consensus is analyzed by considering the single individual state obtained at the previous stage and the false consensus bias. The work contributes to the study of the impact of subjective structures, quantified through the Analytical Hierarchical Process, and how they combine with the false consensus bias in group decision-making dynamics and the consensus reaching process in problems involving the selection of equivalent portfolios.

Keywords: analytical hierarchical process, consensus building, false consensus effect, markov chains, portfolio selection problem

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3858 A Molecular-Level Study of Combining the Waste Polymer and High-Concentration Waste Cooking Oil as an Additive on Reclamation of Aged Asphalt Pavement

Authors: Qiuhao Chang, Liangliang Huang, Xingru Wu

Abstract:

In the United States, over 90% of the roads are paved with asphalt. The aging of asphalt is the most serious problem that causes the deterioration of asphalt pavement. Waste cooking oils (WCOs) have been found they can restore the properties of aged asphalt and promote the reuse of aged asphalt pavement. In our previous study, it was found the optimal WCO concentration to restore the aged asphalt sample should be in the range of 10~15 wt% of the aged asphalt sample. After the WCO concentration exceeds 15 wt%, as the WCO concentration increases, some important properties of the asphalt sample can be weakened by the addition of WCO, such as cohesion energy density, surface free energy density, bulk modulus, shear modulus, etc. However, maximizing the utilization of WCO can create environmental and economic benefits. Therefore, in this study, a new idea about using the waste polymer is another additive to restore the WCO modified asphalt that contains a high concentration of WCO (15-25 wt%) is proposed, which has never been reported before. In this way, both waste polymer and WCO can be utilized. The molecular dynamics simulation is used to study the effect of waste polymer on properties of WCO modified asphalt and understand the corresponding mechanism at the molecular level. The radial distribution function, self-diffusion, cohesion energy density, surface free energy density, bulk modulus, shear modulus, adhesion energy between asphalt and aggregate are analyzed to validate the feasibility of combining the waste polymer and WCO to restore the aged asphalt. Finally, the optimal concentration of waste polymer and WCO are determined.

Keywords: reclaim aged asphalt pavement, waste cooking oil, waste polymer, molecular dynamics simulation

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3857 Data Mining Spatial: Unsupervised Classification of Geographic Data

Authors: Chahrazed Zouaoui

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In recent years, the volume of geospatial information is increasing due to the evolution of communication technologies and information, this information is presented often by geographic information systems (GIS) and stored on of spatial databases (BDS). The classical data mining revealed a weakness in knowledge extraction at these enormous amounts of data due to the particularity of these spatial entities, which are characterized by the interdependence between them (1st law of geography). This gave rise to spatial data mining. Spatial data mining is a process of analyzing geographic data, which allows the extraction of knowledge and spatial relationships from geospatial data, including methods of this process we distinguish the monothematic and thematic, geo- Clustering is one of the main tasks of spatial data mining, which is registered in the part of the monothematic method. It includes geo-spatial entities similar in the same class and it affects more dissimilar to the different classes. In other words, maximize intra-class similarity and minimize inter similarity classes. Taking account of the particularity of geo-spatial data. Two approaches to geo-clustering exist, the dynamic processing of data involves applying algorithms designed for the direct treatment of spatial data, and the approach based on the spatial data pre-processing, which consists of applying clustering algorithms classic pre-processed data (by integration of spatial relationships). This approach (based on pre-treatment) is quite complex in different cases, so the search for approximate solutions involves the use of approximation algorithms, including the algorithms we are interested in dedicated approaches (clustering methods for partitioning and methods for density) and approaching bees (biomimetic approach), our study is proposed to design very significant to this problem, using different algorithms for automatically detecting geo-spatial neighborhood in order to implement the method of geo- clustering by pre-treatment, and the application of the bees algorithm to this problem for the first time in the field of geo-spatial.

Keywords: mining, GIS, geo-clustering, neighborhood

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3856 Analysis of the Dynamics of Transmission of Microsporidia MB Inside the Population of Anopheles Mosquitoes

Authors: Charlene N. T. Mfangnia, Henri Tonnang, Berge Tsanou, Jeremy Herren

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The Microsporidia MB found in the populations of anopheles is a recently discovered symbiont responsible for the Plasmodium transmission blocking. From early studies, it was established that the symbiont can be transmitted vertically and horizontally. The present study uses compartmental mathematical modelling approach to investigate the dynamics of Microsporidia transmission in the mosquito population with the mindset of establishing a mechanism for use to control malaria. Data and information obtained from laboratory experiments are used to estimate the model parameters with and without temperature dependency of mosquito traits. We carry out the mathematical analysis focusing on the equilibria states and their stability for the autonomous model. Through the modelling experiments, we are able to assess and confirm the contribution of vertical and horizontal transmission in the proliferation of Microsporidia MB in the mosquito population. In addition, the basic and target reproductions are computed, and some long-term behaviours of the model, such as the local (and global) stability of equilibrium points, are rigorously analysed and illustrated numerically. We establish the conditions responsible for the low prevalence of the symbiont-infected mosquitoes observed in nature. Moreover, we identify the male death rate, the mating rate and the attractiveness of MB-positive mosquitoes as mosquito traits that significantly influence the spread of Microsporidia MB. Furthermore, we highlight the influence of temperature in the establishment and persistence of MB-infected mosquitoes in a given area.

Keywords: microsporidia MB, vertical transmission, horizontal transmission, compartmental modelling approach, temperature-dependent mosquito traits, malaria, plasmodium-transmission blocking

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3855 The Emergence of Memory at the Nanoscale

Authors: Victor Lopez-Richard, Rafael Schio Wengenroth Silva, Fabian Hartmann

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Memcomputing is a computational paradigm that combines information processing and storage on the same physical platform. Key elements for this topic are devices with an inherent memory, such as memristors, memcapacitors, and meminductors. Despite the widespread emergence of memory effects in various solid systems, a clear understanding of the basic microscopic mechanisms that trigger them is still a puzzling task. We report basic ingredients of the theory of solid-state transport, intrinsic to a wide range of mechanisms, as sufficient conditions for a memristive response that points to the natural emergence of memory. This emergence should be discernible under an adequate set of driving inputs, as highlighted by our theoretical prediction and general common trends can be thus listed that become a rule and not the exception, with contrasting signatures according to symmetry constraints, either built-in or induced by external factors at the microscopic level. Explicit analytical figures of merit for the memory modulation of the conductance are presented, unveiling very concise and accessible correlations between general intrinsic microscopic parameters such as relaxation times, activation energies, and efficiencies (encountered throughout various fields in Physics) with external drives: voltage pulses, temperature, illumination, etc. These building blocks of memory can be extended to a vast universe of materials and devices, with combinations of parallel and independent transport channels, providing an efficient and unified physical explanation for a wide class of resistive memory devices that have emerged in recent years. Its simplicity and practicality have also allowed a direct correlation with reported experimental observations with the potential of pointing out the optimal driving configurations. The main methodological tools used to combine three quantum transport approaches, Drude-like model, Landauer-Buttiker formalism, and field-effect transistor emulators, with the microscopic characterization of nonequilibrium dynamics. Both qualitative and quantitative agreements with available experimental responses are provided for validating the main hypothesis. This analysis also shades light on the basic universality of complex natural impedances of systems out of equilibrium and might help pave the way for new trends in the area of memory formation as well as in its technological applications.

Keywords: memories, memdevices, memristors, nonequilibrium states

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3854 Identification of Potent and Selective SIRT7 Anti-Cancer Inhibitor via Structure-Based Virtual Screening and Molecular Dynamics Simulation

Authors: Md. Fazlul Karim, Ashik Sharfaraz, Aysha Ferdoushi

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Background: Computational medicinal chemistry approaches are used for designing and identifying new drug-like molecules, predicting properties and pharmacological activities, and optimizing lead compounds in drug development. SIRT7, a nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD+)-dependent deacylase which regulates aging, is an emerging target for cancer therapy with mounting evidence that SIRT7 downregulation plays important roles in reversing cancer phenotypes and suppressing tumor growth. Activation or altered expression of SIRT7 is associated with the progression and invasion of various cancers, including liver, breast, gastric, prostate, and non-small cell lung cancer. Objectives: The goal of this work was to identify potent and selective bioactive candidate inhibitors of SIRT7 by in silico screening of small molecule compounds obtained from Nigella sativa (N. sativa). Methods: SIRT7 structure was retrieved from The Research Collaboratory for Structural Bioinformatics Protein Data Bank (RCSB PDB), and its active site was identified using CASTp and metaPocket. Molecular docking simulation was performed with PyRx 0.8 virtual screening software. Drug-likeness properties were tested using SwissADME and pkCSM. In silico toxicity was evaluated by Osiris Property Explorer. Bioactivity was predicted by Molinspiration software. Antitumor activity was screened for Prediction of Activity Spectra for Substances (PASS) using Way2Drug web server. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation was carried out by Desmond v3.6 package. Results: A total of 159 bioactive compounds from the N. Sativa were screened against the SIRT7 enzyme. Five bioactive compounds: chrysin (CID:5281607), pinocembrin (CID:68071), nigellidine (CID:136828302), nigellicine (CID:11402337), and epicatechin (CID:72276) were identified as potent SIRT7 anti-cancer candidates after docking score evaluation and applying Lipinski's Rule of Five. Finally, MD simulation identified Chrysin as the top SIRT7 anti-cancer candidate molecule. Conclusion: Chrysin, which shows a potential inhibitory effect against SIRT7, can act as a possible anti-cancer drug candidate. This inhibitor warrants further evaluation to check its pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics properties both in vitro and in vivo.

Keywords: SIRT7, antitumor, molecular docking, molecular dynamics simulation

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3853 Simulation and Experimental Study on Dual Dense Medium Fluidization Features of Air Dense Medium Fluidized Bed

Authors: Cheng Sheng, Yuemin Zhao, Chenlong Duan

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Air dense medium fluidized bed is a typical application of fluidization techniques for coal particle separation in arid areas, where it is costly to implement wet coal preparation technologies. In the last three decades, air dense medium fluidized bed, as an efficient dry coal separation technique, has been studied in many aspects, including energy and mass transfer, hydrodynamics, bubbling behaviors, etc. Despite numerous researches have been published, the fluidization features, especially dual dense medium fluidization features have been rarely reported. In dual dense medium fluidized beds, different combinations of different dense mediums play a significant role in fluidization quality variation, thus influencing coal separation efficiency. Moreover, to what extent different dense mediums mix and to what extent the two-component particulate mixture affects the fluidization performance and quality have been in suspense. The proposed work attempts to reveal underlying mechanisms of generation and evolution of two-component particulate mixture in the fluidization process. Based on computational fluid dynamics methods and discrete particle modelling, movement and evolution of dual dense mediums in air dense medium fluidized bed have been simulated. Dual dense medium fluidization experiments have been conducted. Electrical capacitance tomography was employed to investigate the distribution of two-component mixture in experiments. Underlying mechanisms involving two-component particulate fluidization are projected to be demonstrated with the analysis and comparison of simulation and experimental results.

Keywords: air dense medium fluidized bed, particle separation, computational fluid dynamics, discrete particle modelling

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3852 Frictional Effects on the Dynamics of a Truncated Double-Cone Gravitational Motor

Authors: Barenten Suciu

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In this work, effects of the friction and truncation on the dynamics of a double-cone gravitational motor, self-propelled on a straight V-shaped horizontal rail, are evaluated. Such mechanism has a variable radius of contact, and, on one hand, it is similar to a pulley mechanism that changes the potential energy into the kinetic energy of rotation, but on the other hand, it is similar to a pendulum mechanism that converts the potential energy of the suspended body into the kinetic energy of translation along a circular path. Movies of the self- propelled double-cones, made of S45C carbon steel and wood, along rails made of aluminum alloy, were shot for various opening angles of the rails. Kinematical features of the double-cones were estimated through the slow-motion processing of the recorded movies. Then, a kinematical model is derived under assumption that the distance traveled by the contact points on the rectilinear rails is identical with the distance traveled by the contact points on the truncated conical surface. Additionally, a dynamic model, for this particular contact problem, was proposed and validated against the experimental results. Based on such model, the traction force and the traction torque acting on the double-cone are identified. One proved that the rolling traction force is always smaller than the sliding friction force; i.e., the double-cone is rolling without slipping. Results obtained in this work can be used to achieve the proper design of such gravitational motor.

Keywords: Truncated double-cone, friction, rolling and sliding, dynamic model, gravitational motor

Procedia PDF Downloads 275
3851 Bridging Minds, Building Success Beyond Metrics: Uncovering Human Influence on Project Performance: Case Study of University of Salford

Authors: David Oyewumi Oyekunle, David Preston, Florence Ibeh

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The paper provides an overview of the impacts of the human dimension in project management and team management on projects, which is increasingly affecting the performance of organizations. Recognizing its crucial significance, the research focuses on analyzing the psychological and interpersonal dynamics within project teams. This research is highly significant in the dynamic field of project management, as it addresses important gaps and offers vital insights that align with the constantly changing demands of the profession. A case study was conducted at the University of Salford to examine how human activity affects project management and performance. The study employed a mixed methodology to gain a deeper understanding of the real-world experiences of the subjects and project teams. Data analysis procedures to address the research objectives included the deductive approach, which involves testing a clear hypothesis or theory, as well as descriptive analysis and visualization. The survey comprised a sample size of 40 participants out of 110 project management professionals, including staff and final students in the Salford Business School, using a purposeful sampling method. To mitigate bias, the study ensured diversity in the sample by including both staff and final students. A smaller sample size allowed for more in-depth analysis and a focused exploration of the research objective. Conflicts, for example, are intricate occurrences shaped by a multitude of psychological stimuli and social interactions and may have either a deterrent perspective or a positive perspective on project performance and project management productivity. The study identified conflict elements, including culture, environment, personality, attitude, individual project knowledge, team relationships, leadership, and team dynamics among team members, as crucial human activities to minimize conflict. The findings are highly significant in the dynamic field of project management, as they address important gaps and offer vital insights that align with the constantly changing demands of the profession. It provided project professionals with valuable insights that can help them create a collaborative and high-performing project environment. Uncovering human influence on project performance, effective communication, optimal team synergy, and a keen understanding of project scope are necessary for the management of projects to attain exceptional performance and efficiency. For the research to achieve the aims of this study, it was acknowledged that the productive dynamics of teams and strong group cohesiveness are crucial for effectively managing conflicts in a beneficial and forward-thinking manner. Addressing the identified human influence will contribute to a more sustainable project management approach and offer opportunities for exploration and potential contributions to both academia and practical project management.

Keywords: human dimension, project management, team dynamics, conflict resolution

Procedia PDF Downloads 105
3850 Photophysics and Rotational Relaxation Dynamics of 6-Methoxyquinoline Fluorophore in Cationic Alkyltrimethylammonium Bromide Micelles

Authors: Tej Varma Y, Debi D. Pant

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Photophysics and rotational dynamics of the fluorescent probe, 6-methoxyquinoline (6MQ) with cationic surfactant, alkyltrimethylammonium bromide (nTAB) micelle solutions have been investigated (n = 12, 14 and 16). Absorption and emission peaks of the dye have been observed to shift at concentrations around critical micellar concentration (cmc) of nTAB compared to that of bulk solutions suggesting probe is in a lower polar environment. The probe senses changes in polarity (ET (30)) brought about by variation of surfactant chain length concentration and is invariably solubilized in the aqueous interface or palisade layer. The order of change in polarity observed was DTAB > CTAB > TTAB. The binding constant study shows that the probe binds strongest with TTAB (is of the order TTAB > CTAB > DTAB) due to deeper penetration into the micelle. The anisotropy decay for the probe in all the nTAB micelles studied have been rationalized based on a two-step model consisting of fast-restricted rotation of the probe and slow lateral diffusion of the probe in the micelle that is coupled to the overall rotation of the micelle. Fluorescence lifetime measurements of probe in the cationic micelles demonstrate the close proximity of the 6MQ to the Br - counterions. The fluorescence lifetimes of TTAB and DTAB are much shorter than in CTAB. These results indicate that 6MQ resides to a substantial degree in the head group region of the micelles. All the changes observed in the steady state fluorescence, microenvironment, fluorescence lifetimes, fluorescence anisotropy, and other calculations are in agreement with each other suggesting binding of the cationic surfactant with the neutral dye molecule.

Keywords: photophysics, chain length, ntaB, micelles

Procedia PDF Downloads 637
3849 A Dimensional Approach to Family Involvement in Forensic Mental Health Settings - Prevention of the Systemic Replication of Abuse, Need for Accepted Falsehoods and Family Guilt and Shame

Authors: Katie E. Jennings

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The interactions between family dynamics and environmental factors with mental health vulnerability in individuals are well known and are a theme for on-going research and debate. The impact upon mental health issues and forensic issues on family dynamics, experience, and emotional wellbeing cannot be over-Emphasised. For forensic patients with diagnosed mental disorders, these relationships and environments may have also been functionally linked to the development and maintenance of those disorders; with significant adverse childhood experiences being a common feature of many Patient’s histories. Mental health hospitals remove the patient from their home environments and provide treatment outside of these relationships and often outside of the home area. There is, therefore, a major focus on Services ensuring that patients are able to build and maintain relationships with family and friends, requiring services to involve families in Patients' care and treatment wherever possible. There are standards set by Government and clinical bodies that require absolute demonstration of the inclusion of family and friends in all aspects of the care and treatment of forensic patients. For some patients and family members, this push to take on a “role” in care can be unhelpful, extremely stressful, and has constant implications for the potential delicate reparation of relationships. Based on work undertaken for over 20 years in forensic mental health settings, this paper explores the positive psychology approach to a dimensional model to family inclusion in mental health care that learns from family court work and allows for the maintenance of relationships to be at both proximal and Distil levels; to prevent the replication of abuse, decrease the need for falsehoods and assist the recovery of all. The model is based on allowing families to choose to not be involved or be involved in different ways if this is seen to be more helpful. It also allows patients to choose the level of potential involvement that they would find helpful, and for this to be reviewed at a timeframe agreed by all parties, rather than when the next survey is due or the patient has a significant care meeting. This paper is significant as there is a lack of research to support services to use a positive psychology approach to work in this area, the assumption that being asked to be involved must be positive for all seems naïve at best for this patient group. Work relating to the psychology of family can significantly contribute to the development of knowledge in this area. The development of a dimensional model will support choice within families and assist in the development of more honest and open relationships.

Keywords: family dynamics, forensic, mental disorder, positive psychology

Procedia PDF Downloads 148
3848 Aging and Falls Profile from Hospital Databases

Authors: Nino Chikhladze, Tamar Dochviri, Nato Pitskhelauri, Maia Bitskhinashvili

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Population aging is a key social and demographic trend of the 21st century. Falls represent a prevalent geriatric syndrome that poses significant risks to the health and independence of older adults. The World Health Organization notes a lack of comprehensive data on falls in low- and middle-income countries, complicating the creation of effective prevention programs. To the authors’ best knowledge, no such studies have been conducted in Georgia. The aim of the study is to explore the epidemiology of falls in the elderly population. The hospitalization database of the National Center for Disease Control and Public Health of Georgia was used for the retrospective study. Falls-related injuries were identified using ICD-10 classifications using the class XIX (S and T codes) and class XX for the type of injury (V-Y codes). Statistical data analyses were done using SPSS software version 23.0. The total number of fall-related hospitalizations for individuals aged 65 and older from 2015 to 2021 was 29,697. The study revealed that falls accounted for an average of 63% (ranging from 59% to 66%) of all hospitalizations and 68% (ranging from 65% to 70%) of injury-related hospitalizations during this period. The 69% of all patients were women and 31%-men (Chi2=4482.1, p<0.001). The highest rate of hospitalization was in the age groups 80-84 and 75-79. The probability of fall-related hospitalization was significantly higher in women (p<0.001) compared to men in all age groups except 65-69 years. In the target age group of 65 years and older, the probability of hospitalization increased significantly with an increase in age (p<0.001). The study's results can be leveraged to create evidence-based awareness programs, design targeted multi-domain interventions addressing specific risk factors, and enhance the quality of geriatric healthcare services in Georgia.

Keywords: elderly population, falls, geriatric patients, hospitalization, injuries

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3847 Introduction to Multi-Agent Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient

Authors: Xu Jie

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As a key network security method, cryptographic services must fully cope with problems such as the wide variety of cryptographic algorithms, high concurrency requirements, random job crossovers, and instantaneous surges in workloads. Its complexity and dynamics also make it difficult for traditional static security policies to cope with the ever-changing situation. Cyber Threats and Environment. Traditional resource scheduling algorithms are inadequate when facing complex decisionmaking problems in dynamic environments. A network cryptographic resource allocation algorithm based on reinforcement learning is proposed, aiming to optimize task energy consumption, migration cost, and fitness of differentiated services (including user, data, and task security). By modeling the multi-job collaborative cryptographic service scheduling problem as a multiobjective optimized job flow scheduling problem, and using a multi-agent reinforcement learning method, efficient scheduling and optimal configuration of cryptographic service resources are achieved. By introducing reinforcement learning, resource allocation strategies can be adjusted in real time in a dynamic environment, improving resource utilization and achieving load balancing. Experimental results show that this algorithm has significant advantages in path planning length, system delay and network load balancing, and effectively solves the problem of complex resource scheduling in cryptographic services.

Keywords: multi-agent reinforcement learning, non-stationary dynamics, multi-agent systems, cooperative and competitive agents

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3846 A Novel Epitope Prediction for Vaccine Designing against Ebola Viral Envelope Proteins

Authors: Manju Kanu, Subrata Sinha, Surabhi Johari

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Viral proteins of Ebola viruses belong to one of the best studied viruses; however no effective prevention against EBOV has been developed. Epitope-based vaccines provide a new strategy for prophylactic and therapeutic application of pathogen-specific immunity. A critical requirement of this strategy is the identification and selection of T-cell epitopes that act as vaccine targets. This study describes current methodologies for the selection process, with Ebola virus as a model system. Hence great challenge in the field of ebola virus research is to design universal vaccine. A combination of publicly available bioinformatics algorithms and computational tools are used to screen and select antigen sequences as potential T-cell epitopes of supertypes Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) alleles. MUSCLE and MOTIF tools were used to find out most conserved peptide sequences of viral proteins. Immunoinformatics tools were used for prediction of immunogenic peptides of viral proteins in zaire strains of Ebola virus. Putative epitopes for viral proteins (VP) were predicted from conserved peptide sequences of VP. Three tools NetCTL 1.2, BIMAS and Syfpeithi were used to predict the Class I putative epitopes while three tools, ProPred, IEDB-SMM-align and NetMHCII 2.2 were used to predict the Class II putative epitopes. B cell epitopes were predicted by BCPREDS 1.0. Immunogenic peptides were identified and selected manually by putative epitopes predicted from online tools individually for both MHC classes. Finally sequences of predicted peptides for both MHC classes were looked for common region which was selected as common immunogenic peptide. The immunogenic peptides were found for viral proteins of Ebola virus: epitopes FLESGAVKY, SSLAKHGEY. These predicted peptides could be promising candidates to be used as target for vaccine design.

Keywords: epitope, b cell, immunogenicity, ebola

Procedia PDF Downloads 314
3845 Skew Cyclic Codes over Fq+uFq+…+uk-1Fq

Authors: Jing Li, Xiuli Li

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This paper studies a special class of linear codes, called skew cyclic codes, over the ring R= Fq+uFq+…+uk-1Fq, where q is a prime power. A Gray map ɸ from R to Fq and a Gray map ɸ' from Rn to Fnq are defined, as well as an automorphism Θ over R. It is proved that the images of skew cyclic codes over R under map ɸ' and Θ are cyclic codes over Fq, and they still keep the dual relation.

Keywords: skew cyclic code, gray map, automorphism, cyclic code

Procedia PDF Downloads 297
3844 Biomechanical Modeling, Simulation, and Comparison of Human Arm Motion to Mitigate Astronaut Task during Extra Vehicular Activity

Authors: B. Vadiraj, S. N. Omkar, B. Kapil Bharadwaj, Yash Vardhan Gupta

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During manned exploration of space, missions will require astronaut crewmembers to perform Extra Vehicular Activities (EVAs) for a variety of tasks. These EVAs take place after long periods of operations in space, and in and around unique vehicles, space structures and systems. Considering the remoteness and time spans in which these vehicles will operate, EVA system operations should utilize common worksites, tools and procedures as much as possible to increase the efficiency of training and proficiency in operations. All of the preparations need to be carried out based on studies of astronaut motions. Until now, development and training activities associated with the planned EVAs in Russian and U.S. space programs have relied almost exclusively on physical simulators. These experimental tests are expensive and time consuming. During the past few years a strong increase has been observed in the use of computer simulations due to the fast developments in computer hardware and simulation software. Based on this idea, an effort to develop a computational simulation system to model human dynamic motion for EVA is initiated. This study focuses on the simulation of an astronaut moving the orbital replaceable units into the worksites or removing them from the worksites. Our physics-based methodology helps fill the gap in quantitative analysis of astronaut EVA by providing a multisegment human arm model. Simulation work described in the study improves on the realism of previous efforts, incorporating joint stops to account for the physiological limits of range of motion. To demonstrate the utility of this approach human arm model is simulated virtually using ADAMS/LifeMOD® software. Kinematic mechanism for the astronaut’s task is studied from joint angles and torques. Simulation results obtained is validated with numerical simulation based on the principles of Newton-Euler method. Torques determined using mathematical model are compared among the subjects to know the grace and consistency of the task performed. We conclude that due to uncertain nature of exploration-class EVA, a virtual model developed using multibody dynamics approach offers significant advantages over traditional human modeling approaches.

Keywords: extra vehicular activity, biomechanics, inverse kinematics, human body modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 342
3843 Effect of Carbide Precipitates in Tool Steel on Material Transfer: A Molecular Dynamics Study

Authors: Ahmed Tamer AlMotasem, Jens Bergström, Anders Gåård, Pavel Krakhmalev, Thijs Jan Holleboom

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In sheet metal forming processes, accumulation and transfer of sheet material to tool surfaces, often referred to as galling, is the major cause of tool failure. Initiation of galling is assumed to occur due to local adhesive wear between two surfaces. Therefore, reducing adhesion between the tool and the work sheet has a great potential to improve the tool materials galling resistance. Experimental observations and theoretical studies show that the presence of primary micro-sized carbides and/or nitrides in alloyed steels may significantly improve galling resistance. Generally, decreased adhesion between the ceramic precipitates and the sheet material counter-surface are attributed as main reason to the latter observations. On the other hand, adhesion processes occur at an atomic scale and, hence, fundamental understanding of galling can be obtained via atomic scale simulations. In the present study, molecular dynamics simulations are used, with utilizing second nearest neighbor embedded atom method potential to investigate the influence of nano-sized cementite precipitates embedded in tool atoms. The main aim of the simulations is to gain new fundamental knowledge on galling initiation mechanisms. Two tool/work piece configurations, iron/iron and iron-cementite/iron, are studied under dry sliding conditions. We find that the average frictional force decreases whereas the normal force increases for the iron-cementite/iron system, in comparison to the iron/iron configuration. Moreover, the average friction coefficient between the tool/work-piece decreases by about 10 % for the iron-cementite/iron case. The increase of the normal force in the case of iron-cementite/iron system may be attributed to the high stiffness of cementite compared to bcc iron. In order to qualitatively explain the effect of cementite on adhesion, the adhesion force between self-mated iron/iron and cementite/iron surfaces has been determined and we found that iron/cementite surface exhibits lower adhesive force than that of iron-iron surface. The variation of adhesion force with temperature was investigated up to 600 K and we found that the adhesive force, generally, decreases with increasing temperature. Structural analyses show that plastic deformation is the main deformation mechanism of the work-piece, accompanied with dislocations generation.

Keywords: adhesion, cementite, galling, molecular dynamics

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3842 Rail Corridors between Minimal Use of Train and Unsystematic Tightening of Population: A Methodological Essay

Authors: A. Benaiche

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In the current situation, the automobile has become the main means of locomotion. It allows traveling long distances, encouraging urban sprawl. To counteract this trend, the train is often proposed as an alternative to the car. Simultaneously, the favoring of urban development around public transport nodes such as railway stations is one of the main issues of the coordination between urban planning and transportation and the keystone of the sustainable urban development implementation. In this context, this paper focuses on the study of the spatial structuring dynamics around the railway. Specifically, it is a question of studying the demographic dynamics in rail corridors of Nantes, Angers and Le Mans (Western France) basing on the radiation of railway stations. Consequently, the methodology is concentrated on the knowledge of demographic weight and gains of these corridors, the index of urban intensity and the mobility behaviors (workers’ travels, scholars' travels, modal practices of travels). The perimeter considered to define the rail corridors includes the communes of urban area which have a railway station and communes with an access time to the railway station is less than fifteen minutes by car (time specified by the Regional Transport Scheme of Travelers). The main tools used are the statistical data from the census of population, the basis of detailed tables and databases on mobility flows. The study reveals that the population is not tightened along rail corridors and train use is minimal despite the presence of a nearby railway station. These results lead to propose guidelines to make the train, a real vector of mobility across the rail corridors.

Keywords: coordination between urban planning and transportation, rail corridors, railway stations, travels

Procedia PDF Downloads 243