Search results for: risk groups

Authors: Mengdan Guo, Zongmin Wang, Haibo Yang

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Drought is one of the most complex and destructive natural disasters, with a huge impact on both nature and society. In recent years, adverse climate conditions and uncontrolled human activities have exacerbated the occurrence of global droughts, among which socio-economic droughts are closely related to human survival. The study of socio-economic drought risk assessment is crucial for sustainable social development. Therefore, this study comprehensively considered the risk of disaster causing factors, the exposure level of the disaster-prone environment, and the vulnerability of the disaster bearing body to construct a socio-economic drought risk assessment model for Chuxiong Prefecture in Yunnan Province. Firstly, a threedimensional frequency analysis of intensity area duration drought was conducted, followed by a statistical analysis of the drought risk of the socio-economic system. Secondly, a grid analysis model was constructed to assess the exposure levels of different agents and study the effects of drought on regional crop growth, industrial economic growth, and human consumption thresholds. Thirdly, an agricultural vulnerability model for different irrigation levels was established by using the DSSAT crop model. Industrial economic vulnerability and domestic water vulnerability under the impact of drought were investigated by constructing a standardized socio-economic drought index and coupling water loss. Finally, the socio-economic drought risk was assessed by combining hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The results show that the frequency of drought occurrence in Chuxiong Prefecture, Yunnan Province is relatively high, with high population and economic exposure concentrated in urban areas of various counties and districts, and high agricultural exposure concentrated in mountainous and rural areas. Irrigation can effectively reduce agricultural vulnerability in Chuxiong, and the yield loss rate under the 20mm winter irrigation scenario decreased by 10.7% compared to the rain fed scenario. From the perspective of comprehensive risk, the distribution of long-term socio-economic drought risk in Chuxiong Prefecture is relatively consistent, with the more severe areas mainly concentrated in Chuxiong City and Lufeng County, followed by counties such as Yao'an, Mouding and Yuanmou. Shuangbai County has the lowest socio-economic drought risk, which is basically consistent with the economic distribution trend of Chuxiong Prefecture. And in June, July, and August, the drought risk in Chuxiong Prefecture is generally high. These results can provide constructive suggestions for the allocation of water resources and the construction of water conservancy facilities in Chuxiong Prefecture, and provide scientific basis for more effective drought prevention and control. Future research is in the areas of data quality and availability, climate change impacts, human activity impacts, and countermeasures for a more comprehensive understanding and effective response to drought risk in Chuxiong Prefecture.

Keywords: DSSAT model, risk assessment, socio-economic drought, standardized socio-economic drought index

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Authors: Kirsty Biggs, Peter Larsen-Disney

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Background: The UK cervical screening programme significantly reduces cancer mortality through the early detection of abnormal cells. Despite this, over a quarter of eligible women choose not to attend their appointment. Objective: To qualitatively explore patients’ barriers to attending cervical smear appointments and identify key trends of cervical screening behaviour, knowledge, and attitudes in primary and secondary care. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted to evaluate smear services in Brighton and Hove using questionnaires in general practice and colposcopy. 226 patients participated in the voluntary questionnaire between 10/11/2017 and 02/02/2018. 118 patients were recruited from general practice surgeries and 108 from the colposcopy department. Women were asked about their smear knowledge, self-perceived risks factors, prior experiences and reasons for non-attendance. Demographic data was also collected. Results: Approximately a third of women did not engage in smear testing services. This was consistent across primary and secondary care groups. Over 90% were aware of the role of the screening process in relation to cervical cancer; however, over two thirds believed the smear was also a tool to screen for other pathologies. The most commonly cited reasons for non-attendance were negative emotions or previous experiences. Inconvenient appointment times were also commonly described. In a comparison of attenders versus non-attenders previous negative experiences (p < 0.01) and number of identified risk factors (p = 0.02) were statistically significant with non-attenders describing more prior negative smears and identifying more risk factors. Smear knowledge, risk perception and perceived importance of screening were not significant. Negative previous experiences were described in relation to poor bedside manner, pain, embarrassment and staff competency. Conclusions: In contrary to the literature, our white Caucasian cohort experienced significant barriers to accessing smear services. Women’s prior negative experiences are overriding their perceived importance to attend the screening programme; therefore, efforts need to focus on improving clinical experiences through auditing tools, training and providing a supportive appointment setting. Positive changes can also be expected by improving appointment availabilities with extended hours and self-booking systems.

Keywords: barriers, cervical, Papanicolaou, screening, smear

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Authors: Tolga Barisik, Ali Fuat Guneri, K. Dastan

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Major industrial facilities have a high potential for fire risk. In particular, the indices used for the detection of hidden fire are used very effectively in order to prevent the fire from becoming dangerous in the initial stage. These indices provide the opportunity to prevent or intervene early by determining the stage of the fire, the potential for hazard, and the type of the combustion agent with the percentage values of the ambient air components. In this system, artificial neural network will be modeled with the input data determined using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, which is a multi-layer sensor (CAA) (teacher-learning) type, before modeling the modeling methods in the literature. The actual values produced by the indices will be compared with the outputs produced by the network. Using the neural network and the curves to be created from the resulting values, the feasibility of performance determination will be investigated.

Keywords: artifical neural networks, fire, Graham Index, levenberg-marquardt algoritm, oxygen decrease percentage index, risk assessment, Trickett Index

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Authors: Orathai Srithongtham, Ubonsri Thabuddha

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The youth with HIV positive is not difference from the general youth in term of sexual needs. Sexual health is crucial the most to support the youth with HIV positive to be sexual well-being. This study aims to elucidate the sexual health on protection from STDs (Sexual Transmitted Diseases) and HIV transmission and to explain sexual risk behavior of the youth with HIV positive. The target group was the youth with HIV positive about 23 cases from two provinces in northeastern part of Thailand. Qualitative method was applied for collecting data by in-depth interview. Content analysis was use for data analysis. The youth with HIV positive was protection from STDs and HIV transmission by using the condom during sexual activity. The reason to deny the condom use were ashamed, condom is not a part of life, no have fit size, and the youth fear to stigmatized as a mental disorder and fear to stigmatized as going to fuck someone. The youth who trust with nurse in clinic was dare to request the condom by face. Sexual activity without condom use is sexual risk behavior. The major causes were couple trust and the sexual enjoyment first and sexual active competition with friend without condom use. The concern on HIV was the boyfriend or girlfriend not accepts the HIV positive people, worry about the HIV transmutation, and finally not compliance to ARV drug. The youth with HIV positive was lacking of the knowledge on sexual health on the issues of access to condom and the concern to keep on relationship with the boyfriend or girlfriend. This concern issues was led to the non-adherence of ARV drug and HIV distribution. To provide the sexual health service is more essential to the youth with HIV positive.

Keywords: sexual health, sexual risk behavior, youth, HIV

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Authors: Tin Thongthammachart, Wanida Jinsart

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Atmospheric particulate matter particles with a diameter less than 10 microns (PM₁₀) and less than 2.5 microns (PM₂.₅) have adverse health effect. The impact from PM was studied from both health and regulatory perspective. Ambient PM data was collected over ten years in Bangkok and vicinity areas of Thailand from 2007 to 2017. Statistical models were used to forecast PM concentrations from 2018 to 2020. Monitoring monthly data averaged concentration of PM₁₀ and PM₂.₅ were used as input to forecast the monthly average concentration of PM. The forecasting results were validated by root means square error (RMSE). The predicted results were used to determine hazard risk for the carcinogenic disease. The health risk values were interpolated with GIS with ordinary kriging technique to create hazard maps in Bangkok and vicinity area. GIS-based maps illustrated the variability of PM distribution and high-risk locations. These evaluated results could support national policy for the sake of human health.

Keywords: PM₁₀, PM₂.₅, statistical models, atmospheric particulate matter

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Authors: Reza Safdari, Goli Arji, Robab Abdolkhani Maryam zahmatkeshan

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Background and purpose: Cardiovascular diseases are among the most common diseases in all societies. The most important step in minimizing myocardial infarction and its complications is to minimize its risk factors. The amount of medical data is increasingly growing. Medical data mining has a great potential for transforming these data into information. Using data mining techniques to generate predictive models for identifying those at risk for reducing the effects of the disease is very helpful. The present study aimed to collect data related to risk factors of heart infarction from patients’ medical record and developed predicting models using data mining algorithm. Methods: The present work was an analytical study conducted on a database containing 350 records. Data were related to patients admitted to Shahid Rajaei specialized cardiovascular hospital, Iran, in 2011. Data were collected using a four-sectioned data collection form. Data analysis was performed using SPSS and Clementine version 12. Seven predictive algorithms and one algorithm-based model for predicting association rules were applied to the data. Accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity, as well as positive and negative predictive values were determined and the final model was obtained. Results: five parameters, including hypertension, DLP, tobacco smoking, diabetes, and A+ blood group, were the most critical risk factors of myocardial infarction. Among the models, the neural network model was found to have the highest sensitivity, indicating its ability to successfully diagnose the disease. Conclusion: Risk prediction models have great potentials in facilitating the management of a patient with a specific disease. Therefore, health interventions or change in their life style can be conducted based on these models for improving the health conditions of the individuals at risk.

Keywords: decision trees, neural network, myocardial infarction, Data Mining

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Authors: Khawla Saad Albalawi

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The aim of this research was to explore the effectiveness of the internet counseling in reducing social shyness among the university's students. The sample consisted of 40 students and was divided into two groups: an experimental group and a control group. The social shyness scale (SSS) was administered to both groups before applying the counseling to the experimental group (as a pre-test). After that, the internet counseling was applied to the experimental group. Next, the SSS was administered to both groups (as a post-test). Finally, the SSS was administered to the experimental group (as an iterative application). Results suggest that: 1. There is a significant difference between the two groups in the post-test in all dimensions and the total score of the (SSS) in favor of the experimental group in all cases. 2. There is a significant difference between the pre- and the post-test of the experimental group in all dimensions and the total score of the (SSS) in favor of the post-test in all cases. 3. There is no significant difference between the post-test and the iterative application of the experimental group in all dimensions and the total score of the (SSS). The above results were discussed in light of previous research. Recommendations and future researches were suggested.

Keywords: internet psychological clinics, social interaction disorders, shyness, Twitter, Facebook

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Authors: Nael Y. Zabel, Maged E. Georgy, Moheeb E. Ibrahim

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A knowledge-based expert system with the acronym RASPE is developed as an application tool to help decision makers in construction companies make informed decisions about managing risks in pipeline construction projects. Choosing to use expert systems from all available artificial intelligence techniques is due to the fact that an expert system is more suited to representing a domain’s knowledge and the reasoning behind domain-specific decisions. The knowledge-based expert system can capture the knowledge in the form of conditional rules which represent various project scenarios and potential risk mitigation/response actions. The built knowledge in RASPE is utilized through the underlying inference engine that allows the firing of rules relevant to a project scenario into consideration. This paper provides an overview of the knowledge acquisition process and goes about describing the knowledge structure which is divided up into four major modules. The paper shows one module in full detail for illustration purposes and concludes with insightful remarks.

Keywords: expert system, knowledge management, pipeline projects, risk mismanagement

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Authors: Yelin Zhao, Xinxiu Li, Martin Smelik, Oleg Sysoev, Firoj Mahmud, Dina Mansour Aly, Mikael Benson

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Background: Early diagnosis of pancreatic cancer is clinically challenging due to vague, or no symptoms, and lack of biomarkers. Polygenic risk score (PRS) scores may provide a valuable tool to assess increased or decreased risk of PC. This study aimed to develop such PRS by filtering genetic variants identified by GWAS using transcriptional programs identified by single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq). Methods: ScRNA-seq data from 24 pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) tumor samples and 11 normal pancreases were analyzed to identify differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in in tumor and microenvironment cell types compared to healthy tissues. Pathway analysis showed that the DEGs were enriched for hundreds of significant pathways. These were clustered into 40 “programs” based on gene similarity, using the Jaccard index. Published genetic variants associated with PDAC were mapped to each program to generate program PRSs (pPRSs). These pPRSs, along with five previously published PRSs (PGS000083, PGS000725, PGS000663, PGS000159, and PGS002264), were evaluated in a European-origin population from the UK Biobank, consisting of 1,310 PDAC participants and 407,473 non-pancreatic cancer participants. Stepwise Cox regression analysis was performed to determine associations between pPRSs with the development of PC, with adjustments of sex and principal components of genetic ancestry. Results: The PDAC genetic variants were mapped to 23 programs and were used to generate pPRSs for these programs. Four distinct pPRSs (P1, P6, P11, and P16) and two published PRSs (PGS000663 and PGS002264) were significantly associated with an increased risk of developing PC. Among these, P6 exhibited the greatest hazard ratio (adjusted HR[95% CI] = 1.67[1.14-2.45], p = 0.008). In contrast, P10 and P4 were associated with lower risk of developing PC (adjusted HR[95% CI] = 0.58[0.42-0.81], p = 0.001, and adjusted HR[95% CI] = 0.75[0.59-0.96], p = 0.019). By comparison, two of the five published PRS exhibited an association with PDAC onset with HR (PGS000663: adjusted HR[95% CI] = 1.24[1.14-1.35], p < 0.001 and PGS002264: adjusted HR[95% CI] = 1.14[1.07-1.22], p < 0.001). Conclusion: Compared to published PRSs, scRNA-seq-based pPRSs may be used not only to assess increased but also decreased risk of PDAC.

Keywords: cox regression, pancreatic cancer, polygenic risk score, scRNA-seq, UK biobank

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Authors: Tu Shuyang, Zhang Xu, Zhou Xiang

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The objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of short-term heat exchange decay of ground heat exchanger (GHE) on the ground source heat pump (GSHP) energy efficiency and capacity. A resistance-capacitance (RC) model was developed and adopted to simulate the transient characteristics of the ground thermal condition and heat exchange. The capacity change of the GSHP was linked to the inlet and outlet water temperature by polynomial fitting according to measured parameters given by heat pump manufacturers. Thus, the model, which combined the heat exchange decay with the capacity change, reflected the energy efficiency decay of the whole system. A case of GSHP system was analyzed by the model, and the result showed that there was risk that the GSHP might not meet the load demand because of the efficiency decay in a short-term operation. The conclusion would provide some guidances for GSHP system design to overcome the risk.

Keywords: capacity, energy efficiency, GSHP, heat exchange

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Authors: Vladimir A. Todiras

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Spatio-temporal models provide new possibilities for real-time action in pest risk analysis. It should be noted that estimation of the possibility and probability of introduction of a pest and of its economic consequences involves many uncertainties. We present a new mapping technique that assesses pest invasion risk using online BioClass software. BioClass is a GIS tool designed to solve multiple-criteria classification and optimization problems based on fuzzy logic and level set methods. This research describes a method for predicting the potential establishment and spread of a plant pest into new areas using a case study: corn rootworm (Diabrotica spp.), tomato leaf miner (Tuta absoluta) and plum fruit moth (Grapholita funebrana). Our study demonstrated that in BioClass we can combine fuzzy logic and geographic information systems with knowledge of pest biology and environmental data to derive new information for decision making. Pests are sensitive to a warming climate, as temperature greatly affects their survival and reproductive rate and capacity. Changes have been observed in the distribution, frequency and severity of outbreaks of Helicoverpa armigera on tomato. BioClass has demonstrated to be a powerful tool for applying dynamic models and map the potential future distribution of a species, enable resource to make decisions about dangerous and invasive species management and control.

Keywords: classification, model, pest, risk

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Authors: Latif Duran, Erdem Aydin, Ahmet Baydin, Ali Kemal Erenler, Iskender Aksoy

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Aim: In this retrospective study, we aim to contribute to the literature by presenting the proposals for taking measures to reduce the mortality by examining the demographic characteristics of the pediatric age group patients presenting with trauma and the factors that may cause mortality Material and Method: This study has been performed by retrospectively investigating the data obtained from the patient files and the hospital automation registration system of the pediatric trauma patients who applied to the Adult Emergency Department of the Ondokuz Mayıs University Medical Faculty between January 1, 2016, and December 31, 2016. Results: 289 of 415 patients involved in our study, were males. The median age was 11.3 years. The most common trauma mechanism was falling from the high. A significant statistical difference was found on the association between trauma mechanisms and gender. An increase in the number of trauma cases was found especially in the summer months. The study showed that thoracic and abdominal trauma was relevant to the increased mortality. Computerized tomography was the most common diagnostic imaging modality. The presence of subarachnoid hemorrhage has increased the risk of mortality by 62.3 fold. Eight of the patients (1.9%) died. Scoring systems were statistically significant to predict mortality. Conclusion: Children are vulnerable to trauma because of their unique anatomical and physiological differences compared to adult patient groups. It will be more successful in the mortality rate and in the post-traumatic healing process by administering the patient triage fast and most appropriate trauma centers in the prehospital period, management of the critical patients with the scoring systems and management with standard treatment protocols

Keywords: emergency service, pediatric patients, scoring systems, trauma, age groups

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Authors: Simon Mensah Ofosu

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Illicit surface mining activities pollutes agricultural lands and water bodies and results in accumulation of heavy metals in vegetables cultivated in such areas. Heavy metal (HM) accumulation in vegetables is a serious food safety issues due to the adverse effects of metal toxicities, hence the need to investigate the levels of these metals in cultivated vegetables in the eastern region. Cocoyam leaves, cabbage and cucumber were sampled from selected farms in mining areas (Atiwa District) and non -mining areas (Yilo Krobo and East Akim District) of the region for the study. Levels of Cadmium, Lead, Mercury and Arsenic were investigated in the vegetables with Atomic Absorption Spectrometer, and the results statistically analyzed with Microsoft Office Excel (2013) Spread Sheet and ANOVA. Cadmium (Cd) and arsenic (As) were the highest and least concentrated HM in the vegetables sampled, respectively. The mean concentrations of Cd and Pb in cabbage (0.564 mg/kg, 0.470 mg/kg), cucumber (0.389 mg/kg, 0.190 mg/kg), cocoyam leaves (0.410 mg/kg, 0.256 mg/kg) respectively from the mining areas exceeded the permissible limits set by Joint FAO/WHO. The mean concentrations of the metals in vegetables from the mining and non-mining areas varied significantly (P<0.05). The Target Hazard Quotient (THQ) was used to assess the health risk posed to the human population via vegetable consumption. The THQ values of cadmium, mercury, and lead in adults and children through vegetable consumption in the mining areas were greater than 1 (THQ >1). This indicates the potential health risk that the children and adults may be facing. The THQ values of adults and children in the non-mining areas were less than the safe limit of 1 (THQ<1), hence no significant health risk posed to the population from such areas.

Keywords: food safety, risk assessment, illicit mining, public health, contaminated vegetables

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Authors: James Kinyua Gitonga, Toshio Fujimi

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Vulnerability assessment and analysis is essential to solving the degree of damage and loss as a result of natural disasters. Urban flooding causes a major economic loss and casualties, at Mathare residential area in Nairobi, Kenya. High population caused by rural-urban migration, Unemployment, and unplanned urban development are among factors that increase flood vulnerability in Mathare area. This study aims to analyse flood risk physical vulnerabilities in Mathare based on scientific data, research data that includes the Rainfall data, River Mathare discharge rate data, Water runoff data, field survey data and questionnaire survey through sampling of the study area have been used to develop the risk curves. Three structural types of building were identified in the study area, vulnerability and risk curves were made for these three structural types by plotting the relationship between flood depth and damage for each structural type. The results indicate that the structural type with mud wall and mud floor is the most vulnerable building to flooding while the structural type with stone walls and concrete floor is least vulnerable. The vulnerability of building contents is mainly determined by the number of floors, where households with two floors are least vulnerable, and households with a one floor are most vulnerable. Therefore more than 80% of the residential buildings including the property in the building are highly vulnerable to floods consequently exposed to high risk. When estimating the potential casualties/injuries we discovered that the structural types of houses were major determinants where the mud/adobe structural type had casualties of 83.7% while the Masonry structural type had casualties of 10.71% of the people living in these houses. This research concludes that flood awareness, warnings and observing the building codes will enable reduce damage to the structural types of building, deaths and reduce damage to the building contents.

Keywords: flood loss, Mathare Nairobi, risk curve analysis, vulnerability

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Authors: Mohamed A. Eid, Sobhy M. Aly

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Background: About 75% of children with spastic hemiplegic cerebral palsy walk independently, but most still show abnormal gait patterns because of contractures across the joints and muscle spasticity. Objective: The purpose of this study was to investigate and compare the effects of extracorporeal shock wave therapy (ESWT) versus functional electrical stimulation (FES) on spasticity, function, and gait parameters in children with hemiplegic cerebral palsy (CP). Methods: A randomized controlled trail was conducted for 45 children with hemiplegic CP ranging in age from 6 to 9 years. They were assigned randomly using opaque envelopes into three groups. Physical Therapy (PT) group consisted of 15 children and received the conventional physical therapy program (CPTP) in addition to ankle foot orthosis (AFO). ESWT group consisted of 15 children and received the CPTP, AFO in addition to ESWT. FES group also consisted of 15 children and received the CPTP, AFO in addition to FES. All groups received the program of treatment 3 days/week for 12 weeks. Evaluation of spasticity by using the Modified Ashworth Scale (MAS), function by using the Pediatric Evaluation Disability Inventory (PEDI) and gait parameters by using the 3-D gait analysis was conducted at baseline and after 12 weeks of the treatment program. Results: Within groups, significant improvements in spasticity, function, and gait (P = 0.05) were observed in both ESWT and FES groups after treatment. While between groups, ESWT group showed significant improvements in all measured variables compared with FES and PT groups (P ˂ 0.05) after treatment. Conclusion: ESWT induced significant improvement than FES in decreasing spasticity and improving function and gait in children with hemiplegic CP. Therefore, ESWT should be included as an adjunctive therapy in the rehabilitation program of these children.

Keywords: cerebral palsy, extracorporeal shock wave therapy, functional electrical stimulation, function, gait, spasticity

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Authors: M. Goliszek, M. Sobiesiak, O. Sevastyanova, B. Podkoscielna

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Lignin is one of three main constituents of biomass together with cellulose and hemicellulose. It is a complex biopolymer, which contains a large number of functional groups, including aliphatic and aromatic hydroxyl groups, carbohylic groups and methoxy groups in its structure, that is why it shows potential capacities for process of sorption. Lignin is a highly cross-linked polymer with a three-dimentional structure which can provide large surface area and pore volumes. It can also posses better dispersion, diffusion and mass transfer behavior in a field of the removal of, e.g., heavy-metal-ions or aromatic pollutions. In this work emulsion-suspension copolymerization method, to synthesize the porous microspheres of divinylbenzene (DVB), styrene (St) and lignin was used. There are also microspheres without the addition of lignin for comparison. Before the copolymerization, modification lignin with methacryloyl chloride, to improve its reactivity with other monomers was done. The physico-chemical properties of the obtained microspheres, e.g., pore structures (adsorption-desorption measurements), thermal properties (DSC), tendencies to swell and the actual shapes were also studied. Due to well-developed porous structure and the presence of functional groups our materials may have great potential in sorption processes. To estimate the sorption capabilities of the microspheres towards phenol and its chlorinated derivatives the off-line SPE (solid-phase extraction) method is going to be applied. This method has various advantages, including low-cost, easy to use and enables the rapid measurements for a large number of chemicals. The efficiency of the materials in removing phenols from aqueous solution and in desorption processes will be evaluated.

Keywords: microspheres, lignin, sorption, solid-phase extraction

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Authors: Weihsuan Lin

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The Swiss Bethlehem Mission Society (BMS) in Taiwan has influenced and made an important contribution to religion and social work in Taidong. This German-speaking Catholic missionary society is located in Taidong, which is the political and economic periphery of Taiwan but is the cultural center of the Chinese and many different Austronesian ethnic groups, including Amis, Paiwan, Puyuma, Yami, Bunun, and Rukai. Through document analysis and fieldwork, this research aims to explore the result of the confrontation, exchange, and innovation between the BMS and other ethnic groups. Further, based upon Michael Foucault’s discussion of two modalities of constructing individuals, namely ‘discipline’ and ‘care of the self,’ this research will analyze the ‘discipline’ and ‘care of the self’ mechanisms of and between BMS Fathers, Brothers, and Church followers at the scale of individuals. At the scale of groups, the ‘autonomy’ and ‘been governed’ of the BMS in relationship to the Catholic Church in Taiwan and the world will also be examined.

Keywords: Bethlehem Mission Society, Religion and Geography, Spirituality, Foucault

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Authors: Sayeeda Laeque Bangi

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Objectives: Treating white spot lesions (WSL) to create a sound and esthetically pleasing enamel surface is a question yet to be fully answered. The objective of this randomized controlled trial was to measure and compare the degree of regression of WSL during orthodontic treatment achieved by using three commercially available materials. Methods: A single-blinded randomized prospective clinical trial, comprising 80 patients categorized into four groups (one control group and three experimental groups, with 20 subjects per group) using block randomization, was conducted. Group A (control group): Colgate strong toothpaste; and experiments groups were Group B: GC tooth mousse, Group C: Phos-Flur mouthwash and Group D: SHY-NM. Subjects were instructed to use the designated dentifrice/mouthwash and photographs were taken at baseline, third and sixth months, and white spot lesions were reassessed in the maxillomandibular anterior teeth. Results: All the three groups had shown an improvement in WSL. But Group B has shown the greatest difference in mean values of decalcification index (DI) scores. Conclusion: All three commercially available products showed a regression of WSL over a 6-month duration. GC tooth mousse proved to be the most effective means of treating WSL over other regimens.

Keywords: white spot lesions, dentifrices, orthodontic therapy, remineralization

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Authors: Mohammad Yousaf Safi Mohibullah Afghan

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The study made on Islamic and conventional banks scrutinizes the risks interconnected with credit and liquidity on the productivity performance of Islamic and conventional banks that operate in Pakistan. Among the banks, only 4 Islamic and 18 conventional banks have been selected to enrich the result of our study on Islamic banks performance in connection to conventional banks. The selection of the banks to the panel is based on collecting quarterly unbalanced data ranges from the first quarter of 2007 to the last quarter of 2017. The data are collected from the Bank’s web sites and State Bank of Pakistan. The data collection is carried out based on Delta-method test. The mentioned test is used to find out the empirical results. In the study, while collecting data on the banks, the return on assets and return on equity have been major factors that are used assignificant proxies in determining the profitability of the banks. Moreover, another major proxy is used in measuring credit and liquidity risks, the loan loss provision to total loan and the ratio of liquid assets to total liability. Meanwhile, with consideration to the previous literature, some other variables such as bank size, bank capital, bank branches, and bank employees have been used to tentatively control the impact of those factors whose direct and indirect effects on profitability is understood. In conclusion, the study emphasizes that credit risk affects return on asset and return on equity positively, and there is no significant difference in term of credit risk between Islamic and conventional banks. Similarly, the liquidity risk has a significant impact on the bank’s profitability, though the marginal effect of liquidity risk is higher for Islamic banks than conventional banks.

Keywords: islamic & conventional banks, performance return on equity, return on assets, pakistan banking sectors, profitibility

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Authors: Florent Cerdan, Anne-Gaëlle Denay, Annette Roy, Jean-Claude Grandidier, Éric Laine

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The insulation of MarkIII membrane of the Liquid Natural Gas Carriers (LNGC) consists of a load- bearing system made of panels in reinforced polyurethane foam (R-PUF). During the shipping, the cargo containment shall be potentially subject to risk events which can be water leakage through the wall ballast tank. The aim of these present works is to further develop understanding of water transfer mechanisms and water effect on properties of R-PUF. This multi-scale approach contributes to improve the durability. Macroscale / Mesoscale Firstly, the use of the gravimetric technique has allowed to define, at room temperature, the water transfer mechanisms and kinetic diffusion, in the R-PUF. The solubility follows a first kinetic fast growing connected to the water absorption by the micro-porosity, and then evolves linearly slowly, this second stage is connected to molecular diffusion and dissolution of water in the dense membranes polyurethane. Secondly, in the purpose of improving the understanding of the transfer mechanism, the study of the evolution of the buoyant force has been established. It allowed to identify the effect of the balance of total and partial pressure of mixture gas contained in pores surface. Mesoscale / Microscale The differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and Dynamical Mechanical Analysis (DMA), have been used to investigate the hydration of the hard and soft segments of the polyurethane matrix. The purpose was to identify the sensitivity of these two phases. It been shown that the glass transition temperatures shifts towards the low temperatures when the solubility of the water increases. These observations permit to conclude to a plasticization of the polymer matrix. Microscale The Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) study has been used to investigate the characterization of functional groups on the edge, the center and mid-way of the sample according the duration of submersion. More water there is in the material, more the water fix themselves on the urethanes groups and more specifically on amide groups. The pic of C=O urethane shifts at lower frequencies quickly before 24 hours of submersion then grows slowly. The intensity of the pic decreases more flatly after that.

Keywords: porous materials, water sorption, glass transition temperature, DSC, DMA, FTIR, transfer mechanisms

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Authors: Azza A. Ali, Toqa M. Elnahhas, Abeer I. Abd El-Fattah, Mona M. Kamal, Karema Abu-Elfotuh

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Background: Environmental pollution with the different aluminium (Al) containing compounds especially those in industrial waste water exposes people to higher than normal levels of Al that represents an environmental risk factor. Cosmetics, Al ware, and containers are also sources of Al besides some foods and food additives. In addition to its known neurotoxicity, Al affects other body structures like skeletal system, blood cells, liver and kidney. Accumulation of Al in kidney and liver induces nephrotoxicity and hepatotoxicity. Coenzyme Q10 (CoQ10) is a pseudo-vitamin substance primarily present in the mitochondria. It is a powerful antioxidant and acts as radical scavenger. Wheat grass is a natural product that contains carbohydrates, proteins, vitamins, minerals, enzymes and has antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, anticancer and cardiovascular protection activities. Cocoa is an excellent source of iron, potent antioxidants and can protect against many diseases. Vinpocetine is an antioxidant and anti inflammatory while zinc is an essential trace element involved in cell division and its deficiency is observed in many types of liver disease. Objective: To evaluate and compare the potency of different drugs (CoQ10, wheatgrass, cocoa, vinpocetine and zinc) against nephro- and hepato-toxicity induced by Al in rats. Methods: Rats were divided to seven groups and received daily for three weeks either saline for control group or AlCl3 (70 mg/kg, IP) for Al-toxicity model groups. Five groups of Al-toxicity model (treated groups) were orally received together with Al each of the following; CoQ10 (200mg/kg), wheat grass (100mg/kg), cocoa powder (24mg/kg), vinpocetine (20mg/kg) or zinc (32mg/kg). Biochemical changes in the serum level of Alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), lactate deshydrogenase (LDH) as well as total bilirubin, lipids, cholesterol, triglycerides, glucose, proteins, creatinine and urea were measured. Liver and kidney specimens from all groups were also collected for the assessment of hepatic and nephrotic level of inflammatory mediators (TNF-α, IL-6β, nuclear factor kappa B (NF-κB), Caspase-3, oxidative parameters (MDA, SOD, TAC, NO) and DNA fragmentation. Histopathological changes in liver and kidney were also evaluated. Results: Three weeks of AlCl3 (70 mg/kg, IP) exposure induced nephro- and hepato-toxicity in rats. Treatment by the all used drugs showed protection against hazards of AlCl3. The protective effects were indicated by the significant decrease in ALT, AST, ALP, LDH as well as total bilirubin, lipids, cholesterol, triglycerides, glucose, creatinine and urea levels which were increased by Al. Liver and kidney of the treated groups showed decrease in MDA, NO, TNF-α, IL-6β, NF-κB, caspase-3 and DNA fragmentation which were increased by Al, together with significant increase in total proteins, SOD and TAC which were decreased by Al. The protection against both nephro- and hepato-toxicity was more pronounced especially with CoQ10 and wheat grass than the other used drugs. Histopathological examinations confirmed the biochemical results of toxicity and of protection. Conclusion: Protection from nephrotoxicity, hepatotoxicity and the consequent degenerations induced by Al can be achieved by using different drugs as CoQ10, wheatgrass, cocoa, vinpocetine and zinc, but CoQ10 as well as wheat grass possesses the most superior protection.

Keywords: aluminum, nephrotoxicity, hepatotoxicity, coenzyme Q10, wheatgrass, cocoa, vinpocetine, zinc

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Authors: Mohammad Mohammadi, Mohammad Pashmchi

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Background: Malnutrition commonly develops and worsens following gastric cancer surgery, particularly after discharge, which is associated with adverse outcomes. Former studies have primarily focused on patients during their hospital stay period, and there is limited evidence regarding the recommendation of nutritional interventions for patients after discharge from the hospital following gastric cancer surgery. This review is aimed to evaluate the efficiency of post-discharge dietary counseling with oral nutritional supplements (ONS), and dietary counseling alone on post-surgical nutritional outcomes in patients undergoing gastric cancer surgery. Methods: The four databases of Embase, PubMed, web of science, and google scholar were searched up to November 2022 for relevant randomized controlled trials. The Cochrane Collaboration’s assessment tool for randomized trials was used to evaluate the quality of studies. Results: Compared to patients who only received dietary counseling, patients who received both dietary counseling and ONS had considerably higher SMI, BMI, and less weight loss and sarcopenia occurrence rate. The patients who had received dietary counseling and ONS had significantly lower risk of chemotherapy intolerance. No differences in the readmission rate between the two groups was found. In terms of the quality of life, concomitant dietary advice and ONS significantly was associated with lower appetite loss and fatigue rate, but there was no difference in the other outcomes between the two groups. Conclusions: Post-discharge dietary advice with ONS following gastric cancer surgery may improve skeletal muscle maintenance, nutritional outcomes, quality of life variables, and chemotherapy tolerance. This evidence supports the recommendation of post-discharge dietary advice with ONS for patients who underwent gastric cancer surgery.

Keywords: gastric cancer surgery, oral nutritional supplements, malnutrition, gastric cancer

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Authors: Padma Chutoo, Elena Kulinskaya, Ilyas Bakbergenuly, Nicholas Steel, Dmitri Pchejetski

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Transient ischaemic attacks (TIAs) are warning signs for future strokes. TIA patients are at increased risk of stroke and cardio-vascular events after a first episode. A majority of studies on TIA focused on the occurrence of these ancillary events after a TIA. Long-term mortality after TIA received only limited attention. We undertook this study to determine the long-term hazards of all-cause mortality following a first episode of a TIA using anonymised electronic health records (EHRs). We used a retrospective case-control study using electronic primary health care records from The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database. Patients born prior to or in year 1960, resident in England, with a first diagnosis of TIA between January 1986 and January 2017 were matched to three controls on age, sex and general medical practice. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. The hazards of all-cause mortality were estimated using a time-varying Weibull-Cox survival model which included both scale and shape effects and a random frailty effect of GP practice. 20,633 cases and 58,634 controls were included. Cases aged 39 to 60 years at the first TIA event had the highest hazard ratio (HR) of mortality compared to matched controls (HR = 3.04, 95% CI (2.91 - 3.18)). The HRs for cases aged 61-70 years, 71-76 years and 77+ years were 1.98 (1.55 - 2.30), 1.79 (1.20 - 2.07) and 1.52 (1.15 - 1.97) compared to matched controls. Aspirin provided long-term survival benefits to cases. Cases aged 39-60 years on aspirin had HR of 0.93 (0.84 - 1.00), 0.90 (0.82 - 0.98) and 0.88 (0.80 - 0.96) at 5 years, 10 years and 15 years, respectively, compared to cases in the same age group who were not on antiplatelets. Similar beneficial effects of aspirin were observed in other age groups. There were no significant survival benefits with other antiplatelet options. No survival benefits of antiplatelet drugs were observed in controls. Our study highlights the excess long-term risk of death of TIA patients and cautions that TIA should not be treated as a benign condition. The study further recommends aspirin as the better option for secondary prevention for TIA patients compared to clopidogrel recommended by NICE guidelines. Management of risk factors and treatment strategies should be important challenges to reduce the burden of disease.

Keywords: dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT), General Practice, Multiple Imputation, The Health Improvement Network(THIN), hazard ratio (HR), Weibull-Cox model

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Authors: Yahya N. Alfraidi, Abdel Halim Boussabaine

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Climate change risk impacts are one of the most challenging aspects that faces the built environment now and the near future. The impacts of climate change on buildings are considered in four different dimensions: physical, economic, social, and management. For each of these, the risks are discussed as they arise from various effects linked to climate change, including windstorms, precipitation, temperature change, flooding, and sea-level rise. For example, building assets in cities will be exposed to extreme hot summer days and nights due to the urban heat island effect and pollution. Buildings also could be vulnerable to water, electricity, gas, etc., scarcity. Building materials, fabric and systems could also be stressed by the emerging climate risks. More impotently the building users might experience extreme internal and extern comfort conditions leading to lower productivity, wellbeing and health problems. Thus, the main aim of this paper to document the emerging risks from climate change on building assets. An in-depth discussion on the consequences of these climate change risk is provided. It is expected that the outcome of this research will be a set of risk design indicators for developing and procuring resilient building assets.

Keywords: climate change, risks of climate change, risks on building from climate change, buildings

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Authors: Danielle Sandler dos Passos, Helder Coelho, Flávia Mori Sarti

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Analysing the world banking sector, we realize that traditional risk measurement methodologies no longer reflect the actual scenario with uncertainty and leave out events that can change the dynamics of markets. Considering this, regulators and financial institutions began to search more realistic models. The aim is to include external influences and interdependencies between agents, to describe and measure the operationalization of these complex systems and their risks in a more coherent and credible way. Within this context, X-Events are more frequent than assumed and, with uncertainties and constant changes, the concept of antifragility starts to gain great prominence in comparison to others methodologies of risk management. It is very useful to analyse whether a system succumbs (fragile), resists (robust) or gets benefits (antifragile) from disorder and stress. Thus, this work proposes the creation of the Banking Antifragility Index (BAI), which is based on the calculation of a triangular fuzzy number – to "quantify" qualitative criteria linked to antifragility.

Keywords: adaptive complex systems, X-Events, risk management, antifragility, banking antifragility index, triangular fuzzy number

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Authors: Reza Mohammadzadeh

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The major challenges in geotechnical engineering in underground spaces arise from uncertainties and different probabilities. The collection, collation, and collaboration of existing data to incorporate them in analysis and design for given prospect evaluation would be a reliable, practical problem solving method under uncertainty. Machine learning (ML) is a subfield of artificial intelligence in statistical science which applies different techniques (e.g., Regression, neural networks, support vector machines, decision trees, random forests, genetic programming, etc.) on data to automatically learn and improve from them without being explicitly programmed and make decisions and predictions. In this paper, a conceptual database schema of geotechnical risks in underground coal mining based on a cloud system architecture has been designed. A new approach of risk assessment using a three-dimensional risk matrix supported by the level of knowledge (LoK) has been proposed in this model. Subsequently, the model workflow methodology stages have been described. In order to train data and LoK models deployment, an ML platform has been implemented. IBM Watson Studio, as a leading data science tool and data-driven cloud integration ML platform, is employed in this study. As a Use case, a data set of geotechnical hazards and risk assessment in underground coal mining were prepared to demonstrate the performance of the model, and accordingly, the results have been outlined.

Keywords: data model, geotechnical risks, machine learning, underground coal mining

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Authors: L. Paulino Ferreira, M. Gomes Neto, M. Duarte, S. Serra

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Objectives: COVID-19 pandemic has caused older adults to experience a degree of social isolation and loneliness that is unprecedented. Our aim is to review state of the art regarding the consequences of social isolation due to COVID-19 in elderly people. Methods: The authors conducted a search on Medscape and PubMed with the keywords mentioned below, and the most relevant articles were selected. Results: Social isolation leads many elderlies to experience loneliness, anxiety, depression, alcohol abuse, and feelings of abandonment with a perception of being a burden on society. Thus, social isolation has increased the risk for suicide in older people. It is also noteworthy that the exacerbation of psychiatric disorders (such as depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder) without correct treatment and follow-up also increases suicide risk. Loneliness is also associated with accelerated cognitive deterioration and dementia. Besides that, during social isolation, it could be more difficult for older people to get medication as well as proper health care. It is also noticed an increase in the risk of falls, poor nutrition, and lack of exercise. All this contributes to weakening elderlies’ immune systems leading to a higher risk of developing infections, cardiovascular events, and cancer, increasing hospitalization and morbimortality. Conclusion: Social isolation in the elderly has a significant impact on physical and mental health, as well as morbimortality and hospitalizations due to non-COVID causes. Nevertheless, further studies will be needed to assess the real dimension of the effects of social isolation due to COVID-19.

Keywords: social isolation, COVID-19, elderly, mental health

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Authors: Carly Madge, Melanie Zurba, Ryan Bullock

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The Boreal Forest has experienced some of the most drastic climate change-induced temperature rises in Canada, with average winter temperatures increasing by 3°C since 1948. One of the main concerns of the province of Saskatchewan, and particularly wildfire managers, is the increased risk of wildfires due to climate change. With these concerns in mind Sakaw Askiy Management Inc., a forestry corporation located in Prince Albert, Saskatchewan with operations in the Boreal Forest biome, is developing wildfire risk reduction strategies that are supported by the shareholders of the corporation as well as the stakeholders of the Prince Albert Forest Management Area (which includes citizens, hunters, trappers, cottage owners, and outfitters). In the past, wildfire management strategies implemented through harvesting have been received with skepticism by some community members of Prince Albert. Engagement of the stakeholders of the Prince Albert Management Area through the development of the wildfire risk reduction strategies aims to reduce this skepticism and rebuild some of the trust that has been lost between industry and community. This research project works with the framework of social learning, which is defined as the learning that occurs when individuals come together to form a group with the purpose of understanding environmental challenges and determining appropriate responses to them. The project evaluates the social learning processes that occur through the development of the risk reduction strategies and how the learning has allowed Sakaw to work towards implementing the strategies into their forest harvesting plans. The incorporation of wildfire risk reduction strategies works to increase the adaptive capacity of Sakaw, which in this case refers to the ability to adjust to climate change, moderate potential damages, take advantage of opportunities, and cope with consequences. Using semi-structured interviews and wildfire workshop meetings shareholders and stakeholders shared their knowledge of wildfire, their main wildfire concerns, and changes they would like to see made in the Prince Albert Forest Management Area. Interviews and topics discussed in the workshops were inductively coded for themes related to learning, adaptive capacity, areas of concern, and preferred methods of wildfire risk reduction strategies. Analysis determined that some of the learning that has occurred has resulted through social interactions and the development of networks oriented towards wildfire and wildfire risk reduction strategies. Participants have learned new knowledge and skills regarding wildfire risk reduction. The formation of wildfire networks increases access to information on wildfire and the social capital (trust and strengthened relations) of wildfire personnel. Both factors can be attributed to increases in adaptive capacity. Interview results were shared with the General Manager of Sakaw, where the areas of concern and preferred strategies of wildfire risk reduction will be considered and accounted for in the implementation of new harvesting plans. This research also augments the growing conceptual and empirical evidence of the important role of learning and networks in regional wildfire risk management efforts.

Keywords: adaptive capacity, community-engagement, social learning, wildfire risk reduction

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Authors: Tess Hartland, Moitree Banerjee, Sue Churchill, Antonina Pereira, Ian Tyndall, Ruth Lowry

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Background: Sexual health services and policies for middle-aged and older adults are underdeveloped, while global sexually transmitted infections in this age group are on the rise. The Interreg cross-Europe Sexual Health In Over 45s (SHIFT) project aims to increase participation in sexual health services and improve sexual health and wellbeing in people aged over 45, with an additional focus on disadvantaged groups. Methods: A two-pronged mixed-methodology is being used to develop a model for good service provision in sexual health for over 45s. (1) Following PRISMA-ScR guidelines, a scoping review is being conducted, using the databases PsychINFO, Web of Science, ERIC and PubMed. A key search strategy using terms around sexual health, good practice, over 45s and disadvantaged groups. The initial search for literature yielded 7914 results. (2) Surveys (n=1000) based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour are being administered across the UK, Belgium and Netherlands to explore current sexual health knowledge, awareness and attitudes. Expected results: It is expected that sexual health needs and potential gaps in service provision will be identified in order to inform good practice for sexual health services for the target population. Results of the scoping review are being analysed, while focus group and survey data is being gathered. Preliminary analysis of the survey data highlights barriers to access such as limited risk awareness and stigma. All data analysis will be completed by the time of the conference. Discussion: Findings will inform the development of a model to improve sexual health and wellbeing for among over 45s, a population which is often missed in sexual health policy improvement.

Keywords: adult health, disease prevention, health promotion, over 45s, sexual health

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Authors: Pinn Tsin Isabel Yee

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With the advent of internet technologies, students are increasingly turning toward social media and cross-platform messaging apps such as WhatsApp, Line, and WeChat to support their teaching and learning processes. Although each messaging app has varying features, WhatsApp remains one of the most popular cross-platform apps that allow for fast, simple, secure messaging and free calls anytime, anywhere. With a plethora of advantages, students could easily assimilate WhatsApp as a supportive technology in their learning process. There could be peer to peer learning, and a teacher will be able to share knowledge digitally via the creation of WhatsApp groups. Content analysis techniques were utilized to analyze data collected by closed-ended question forms. Studies demonstrated that 98.8% of college students (n=80) from the Monash University foundation year agreed that the employment of WhatsApp groups was helpful as a learning tool. Approximately 71.3% disagreed that notifications and alerts from the WhatsApp group were disruptions in their studies. Students commented that they could silence the notifications and hence, it would not disturb their flow of thoughts. In fact, an overwhelming majority of students (95.0%) found it enjoyable to participate in WhatsApp groups for educational purposes. It was a common perception that some students felt pressured to post a reply in such groups, but data analysis showed that 72.5% of students did not feel pressured to comment or reply. It was good that 93.8% of students felt satisfactory if their posts were not responded to speedily, but was eventually attended to. Generally, 97.5% of students found it useful if their teachers provided their handphone numbers to be added to a WhatsApp group. If a teacher posts an explanation or a mathematical working in the group, all students would be able to view the post together, as opposed to individual students asking their teacher a similar question. On whether students preferred using Facebook as a learning tool, there was a 50-50 divide in the replies from the respondents as 51.3% of students liked WhatsApp, while 48.8% preferred Facebook as a supportive technology in teaching and learning. Taken altogether, the utilization of WhatsApp groups as a supportive technology in teaching and learning should be implemented in all classes to continuously engage our generation Y students in the ever-changing digital landscape.-

Keywords: education, learning, messaging app, technology, WhatsApp groups

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