Search results for: risk curve analysis

Authors: Lívia B. Meirelles, Erika C. A. N. Chrisman, Flávia B. de Andrade, Lilian C. M. de Oliveira

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True Boiling Point distillation (TBP) is one of the most common experimental techniques for the determination of petroleum properties. This curve provides information about the performance of petroleum in terms of its cuts. The experiment is performed in a few days. Techniques are used to determine the properties faster with a software that calculates the distillation curve when a little information about crude oil is known. In order to evaluate the accuracy of distillation curve prediction, eight points of the TBP curve and specific gravity curve (348 K and 523 K) were inserted into the HYSYS Oil Manager, and the extended curve was evaluated up to 748 K. The methods were able to predict the curve with the accuracy of 0.6%-9.2% error (Software X ASTM), 0.2%-5.1% error (Software X Spaltrohr).

Keywords: distillation curve, petroleum distillation, simulation, true boiling point curve

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Authors: Basuki Supartono, Nunuk Nugrohowati, Ryan Gamma Andiraldi

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Osteoarthritis of the knee can occur due to scoliosis. The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of scoliosis cause secondary osteoarthritis on the knee. This research use an analytic cross-sectional design. The total sample of 92 athletes scoliosis taken by simple random sampling technique. The data obtained were analyzing with Chi-square test, Fisher and Prevalence Ratio. The results of analysis show that there are influences on the incidence of scoliosis secondary osteoarthritis on the knee in athletes at the National Sports Hospital. Based on the criteria in the Cobbs angle had the results (p = 0.022 (p <0.05)), moderate Cobbs angle degree were 7.5 times more at risk of causing secondary osteoarthritis on the knee than a mild degree. While the shape of the curve scoliosis is getting results (p = 0.038 (p <0.05)), the shape of the S curve scoliosis 3.2 times more at risk of causing secondary osteoarthritis on the knee than the curve C. It can be concluded that there is significant influence between the Cobbs angle, shape of the curve scoliosis on the incidence of secondary osteoarthritis on the knee in National Sports Cibubur Hospital on July 2013- April 2014

Keywords: Cobbs angle, curve shape scoliosis, secondary osteoarthritis on the knee, analytic cross-sectional design

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Authors: Sami Mestiri, Abdeljelil Farhat

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The aim of this current paper is to predict the credit risk of banks in Tunisia, over the period (2000-2005). For this purpose, two methods for the estimation of the logistic regression model with random effects: Penalized Quasi Likelihood (PQL) method and Gibbs Sampler algorithm are applied. By using the information on a sample of 528 Tunisian firms and 26 financial ratios, we show that Bayesian approach improves the quality of model predictions in terms of good classification as well as by the ROC curve result.

Keywords: forecasting, credit risk, Penalized Quasi Likelihood, Gibbs Sampler, logistic regression with random effects, curve ROC

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Authors: M. Yushalify Misro, Ahmad Ramli, Jamaludin M. Ali

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Bezier curves have useful properties for path generation problem, for instance, it can generate the reference trajectory for vehicles to satisfy the path constraints. Both algorithms join cubic Bezier curve segment smoothly to generate the path. Some of the useful properties of Bezier are curvature. In mathematics, the curvature is the amount by which a geometric object deviates from being flat, or straight in the case of a line. Another extrinsic example of curvature is a circle, where the curvature is equal to the reciprocal of its radius at any point on the circle. The smaller the radius, the higher the curvature thus the vehicle needs to bend sharply. In this study, we use Bezier curve to fit highway-like curve. We use the different approach to finding the best approximation for the curve so that it will resemble highway-like curve. We compute curvature value by analytical differentiation of the Bezier Curve. We will then compute the maximum speed for driving using the curvature information obtained. Our research works on some assumptions; first the Bezier curve estimates the real shape of the curve which can be verified visually. Even, though, the fitting process of Bezier curve does not interpolate exactly on the curve of interest, we believe that the estimation of speed is acceptable. We verified our result with the manual calculation of the curvature from the map.

Keywords: speed estimation, path constraints, reference trajectory, Bezier curve

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Authors: Philippe Dillien, Patrice Forget, Harald Engel, Olivier Cornu, Marc De Kock, Jean Cyr Yombi

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Introduction: Hip fracture precedes commonly death in elderly people. Identification of high-risk patients may contribute to target patients in whom optimal management, resource allocation and trials efficiency is needed. The aim of this study is to construct a predictive score of mortality after hip fracture on the basis of the objective prognostic factors available: Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), age, and sex. C-Reactive Protein (CRP), is also considered as an alternative to the NLR. Patients and methods: After the IRB approval, we analyzed our prospective database including 286 consecutive patients with hip fracture. A score was constructed combining age (1 point per decade above 74 years), sex (1 point for males), and NLR at postoperative day+5 (1 point if >5). A receiver-operating curve (ROC) curve analysis was performed. Results: From the 286 patients included, 235 were analyzed (72 males and 163 females, 30.6%/69.4%), with a median age of 84 (range: 65 to 102) years, mean NLR values of 6.47+/-6.07. At one year, 82/280 patients died (29.3%). Graphical analysis and log-rank test confirm a highly statistically significant difference (P<0.001). Performance analysis shows an AUC of 0.72 [95%CI 0.65-0.79]. CRP shows no advantage on NLR. Conclusion: We have developed a score based on age, sex and the NLR to predict the risk of mortality at one year in elderly patients after surgery for a hip fracture. After external validation, it may be included in clinical practice as in clinical research to stratify the risk of postoperative mortality.

Keywords: neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, hip fracture, postoperative mortality, medical and health sciences

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Authors: Amit K. Singh, Subhankar Sen

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The bifurcation curve of separation in steady two-dimensional viscous flow past an elliptic cylinder is studied by varying the angle of incidence (α) with different aspect ratio (ratio of minor to major axis). The solutions are based on numerical investigation, using finite element analysis, of the Navier-Stokes equations for incompressible flow. Results are presented for Reynolds number up to 50 and angle of incidence varies from 0° to 90°. Range of aspect ratio (Ar) is from 0.1 to 1 (in steps of 0.1) and flow is considered as unbounded flow. Bifurcation curve represents the locus of Reynolds numbers (Res) at which flow detaches or separates from the surface of the body at a given α and Ar. In earlier studies, effect of Ar on laminar separation curve or bifurcation curve is limited for Ar = 0.1, 0.2, 0.5 and 0.8. Some results are also available at α = 90° and 45°. The present study attempts to provide a systematic data and clear understanding on the effect of Ar at bifurcation curve and its point of maxima. In addition, issues regarding location of separation angle and maximum ratio of coefficient of lift to drag are studied. We found that nature of curve, separation angle and maximum ratio of lift to drag changes considerably with respect to change in Ar.

Keywords: aspect ratio, bifurcation curve, elliptic cylinder, GMRES, stabilized finite-element

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Authors: Eduardo C. Guardia, Jose W. M. Lima, Afonso H. M. Santos

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This paper presents a nonparametric method to obtain the hazard rate “Bathtub curve” for power system components. The model is a mixture of the three known phases of a component life, the decreasing failure rate (DFR), the constant failure rate (CFR) and the increasing failure rate (IFR) represented by three parametric Weibull models. The parameters are obtained from a simultaneous fitting process of the model to the Kernel nonparametric hazard rate curve. From the Weibull parameters and failure rate curves the useful lifetime and the characteristic lifetime were defined. To demonstrate the model the historic time-to-failure of distribution transformers were used as an example. The resulted “Bathtub curve” shows the failure rate for the equipment lifetime which can be applied in economic and replacement decision models.

Keywords: bathtub curve, failure analysis, lifetime estimation, parameter estimation, Weibull distribution

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Authors: Fei Gao, Rodolfo C. Raga Jr.

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This research proposal will ascertain the major risk factors for diabetes and to design a predictive model for risk assessment. The project aims to improve diabetes early detection and management by utilizing data science techniques, which may improve patient outcomes and healthcare efficiency. The phase relation values of each attribute were used to analyze and choose the attributes that might influence the examiner's survival probability using Diabetes Health Indicators Dataset from Kaggle’s data as the research data. We compare and evaluate eight machine learning algorithms. Our investigation begins with comprehensive data preprocessing, including feature engineering and dimensionality reduction, aimed at enhancing data quality. The dataset, comprising health indicators and medical data, serves as a foundation for training and testing these algorithms. A rigorous cross-validation process is applied, and we assess their performance using five key metrics like accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). After analyzing the data characteristics, investigate their impact on the likelihood of diabetes and develop corresponding risk indicators.

Keywords: diabetes, risk factors, predictive model, risk assessment, data science techniques, early detection, data analysis, Kaggle

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Authors: Sahar Shams

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Coeliac disease (CD) is a widely reported disease particularly in countries with predominant Caucasian populations. It presents with many signs and symptoms including iron deficiency (ID) and iron deficiency anaemia/anaemia (IDA/A). The exact association between ID, IDA/A and CD and how accurate these signs are in diagnosing CD is not fully known. This systematic review was conducted to investigate the accuracy of both ID & IDA/A as a diagnostic indicator for CD and whether it warrants point of care testing. A systematic review was performed looking at studies published in MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science. QUADAS-2 tool was used to assess risk of bias in each study. ROC curve and forest plots were generated as part of the meta-analysis after data extraction. 16 studies were identified in total, 13 of which were IDA/A studies and 3 ID studies. The prevalence of CD regardless of diagnostic indicator was assumed as 1%. The QUADAS-2 tool indicated most of studies as having high risk of bias. The PPV for CD was higher in those with ID than for those with IDA/A. Meta-analysis showed the overall odds of having CD is 5 times higher in individuals with ID & IDA/A. The ROC curve showed that there is definitely an association between both diagnostic indicators and CD, the association is not a particularly strong one due to great heterogeneity between studies. Whilst an association between IDA/A & ID and coeliac disease was evident, the results were not deemed significant enough to prompt coeliac disease testing in those with IDA/A & ID.

Keywords: anemia, iron deficiency anemia, coeliac disease, point of care testing

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Authors: Shao-Yuan Huang

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We study the shape of the bifurcation curve of positive solutions for the semipositone problem with the Minkowski-curvature operator. The Minkowski-curvature problem plays an important role in certain fundamental issues in differential geometry and in the special theory of relativity. In addition, it is well known that studying the multiplicity of positive solutions is equivalent to studying the shape of the bifurcation curve. By the shape of the bifurcation curve, we can understand the change in the multiplicity of positive solutions with varying parameters. In this paper, our main technique is a time-map method used in Corsato's PhD Thesis. By this method, studying the shape of the bifurcation curve is equivalent to studying the shape of a certain function T with improper integral. Generally speaking, it is difficult to study the shape of T. So, in this paper, we consider two cases that the nonlinearity is convex or concave. Thus we obtain the following results: (i) If f''(u) < 0 for u > 0, then the bifurcation curve is C-shaped. (ii) If f''(u) > 0 for u > 0, then there exists η>β such that the bifurcation curve does not exist for 0 η. Furthermore, we prove that the bifurcation is C-shaped for L > η under a certain condition.

Keywords: bifurcation curve, Minkowski-curvature problem, positive solution, time-map method

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Authors: Shunsuke Miyoshi, Yasuyuki Nogami, Takuya Kusaka, Nariyoshi Yamai

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Elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem (ECDLP) is one of problems on which the security of pairing-based cryptography is based. This paper considers Pollard's rho method to evaluate the security of ECDLP on Barreto-Naehrig (BN) curve that is an efficient pairing-friendly curve. Some techniques are proposed to make the rho method efficient. Especially, the group structure on BN curve, distinguished point method, and Montgomery trick are well-known techniques. This paper applies these techniques and shows its optimization. According to the experimental results for which a large-scale parallel system with MySQL is applied, 94-bit ECDLP was solved about 28 hours by parallelizing 71 computers.

Keywords: Pollard's rho method, BN curve, Montgomery multiplication

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Authors: Fakharuddin Ibrahim, Jamaludin Md. Ali, Ahmad Ramli

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In this paper, we will discuss about the data interpolation by using the rational cubic Ball curve. To generate a curve with a better and satisfactory smoothness, the curve segments must be connected with a certain amount of continuity. The continuity that we will consider is of type G¹ continuity. The conditions considered are known as the G¹ Hermite condition. A simple application of the proposed method is to generate an Arabic font satisfying the required continuity.

Keywords: data interpolation, rational ball curve, hermite condition, continuity

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Authors: Erwin Stolz, Hannes Mayerl, Anja Waxenegger, Wolfgang Freidl

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Research has often found poverty associated with adverse health outcomes, but it is unclear which (interplay of) mechanisms actually translate low economic resources into poor physical health. The goal of this study was to assess the impact of educational, material, psychosocial and behavioural factors in explaining the poverty-health association in old age. We analysed 28,360 observations from 11,390 community-dwelling respondents (65+) from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE, 2004-2013, 10 countries). We used multilevel growth curve models to assess the impact of combined income- and asset poverty risk on old age frailty index levels and trajectories. In total, 61.8% of the variation of poverty risk on frailty levels could be explained by direct and indirect effects, thereby highlighting the role of material and particularly psychosocial factors, such as perceived control and social isolation. We suggest strengthening social policy and public health efforts in order to fight poverty and its deleterious effects from early age on and to broaden the scope of interventions with regard to psychosocial factors.

Keywords: frailty, health inequality, old age, poverty

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Authors: Jean-Pierre Lomaliza, Kwang-Seok Moon, Hanhoon Park

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It is well-known that Ramer Douglas Peucker (RDP) algorithm greatly depends on the method of choosing starting points. Therefore, this paper focuses on finding such starting points that will optimize the results of RDP algorithm. Specifically, this paper proposes a curve approximation algorithm that finds flat points, called essential points, of an input curve, divides the curve into corner-like sub-curves using the essential points, and applies the RDP algorithm to the sub-curves. The number of essential points play a role on optimizing the approximation results by balancing the degree of shape information loss and the amount of data reduction. Through experiments with curves of various types and complexities of shape, we compared the performance of the proposed algorithm with three other methods, i.e., the RDP algorithm itself and its variants. As a result, the proposed algorithm outperformed the others in term of maintaining the original shapes of the input curve, which is important in various applications like pattern recognition.

Keywords: curve approximation, essential point, RDP algorithm

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Authors: Enea Danut Nicolae, Osman (Defta) Aurelia, Vidu Livia, Marginean Gheorghe, Defta Nicoleta, Moise Andrada

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Today, as a result of population growth, there is an increase in demand for animal products; milk and dairy products are an important part of this category. Maintaining production at maximum levels for as long as possible is one of the main objectives of dairy farmers. Over the course of lactation, a cow's milk production is not uniform. During the initial stage of lactation, the cow's milk production follows an upward slope, a plateau, and then a downward slope, which is a reflection of the lactation curve. The evolution of the lactation curve is influenced by numerous factors, which are genetic, exploitation, physiological, environmental and technological. The aim of this study was to observe the lactation curve of Holstein cows in Romania and determine the extent to which they conform to the expected pattern. In addition, there has been an analysis of the factors which have an influence on this curve and the extent of this influence. In order to be able to carry out the present study, data were collected from three farms located in three different geographical areas. To highlight the findings, the data collected was then statistically processed and graphically interpreted. All the farms have only Holstein cows, which are kept in free stalls.

Keywords: lactation curve, Holstein, milk production, influencing factors

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Authors: Y.J. Wang, C. Q. Ru

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A key issue of cohesive zone models is how to determine the cohesive zone model parameters based on real material test data. In this paper, uniaxial nominal stress-strain curve (SS curve) is used to determine two key parameters of a cohesive zone model (CZM): The maximum traction and the area under the curve of traction-separation law (TSL). To this end, the true SS curve is obtained based on the nominal SS curve, and the relationship between the nominal SS curve and TSL is derived based on an assumption that the stress for cracking should be the same in both CZM and the real material. In particular, the true SS curve after necking is derived from the nominal SS curve by taking the average of the power law extrapolation and the linear extrapolation, and a damage factor is introduced to offset the true stress reduction caused by the voids generated at the necking zone. The maximum traction of the TSL is equal to the maximum true stress calculated based on the damage factor at the end of hardening. In addition, a simple specimen is modeled by Abaqus/Standard to calculate the critical J-integral, and the fracture energy calculated by the critical J-integral represents the stored strain energy in the necking zone calculated by the true SS curve. Finally, the CZM parameters obtained by the present method are compared to those used in a previous related work for a simulation of the drop-weight tear test.

Keywords: dynamic fracture, cohesive zone model, traction-separation law, stress-strain curve, J-integral

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Authors: Janusz K. Grabara, Bartłomiej Okwiet, Sebastian Kot

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The purpose of the article is presentation and analysis of the aspect of job security in small and medium-size enterprises in Poland with reference to other EU countries. We show the theoretical aspects of the risk with reference to managing small and medium enterprises, next risk management in small and medium enterprises in Poland, which were subjected to a detailed analysis. We show in detail the risk associated with the operation of the mentioned above companies, as well as analyses its levels on various stages and for different kinds of conducted activity.

Keywords: job safety, SME, work risk, risk management

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Authors: Y. J. Wang, C. Q. Ru

Abstract:

A key issue of cohesive zone models is how to determine the cohesive zone model (CZM) parameters based on real material test data. In this paper, uniaxial nominal stress-strain curve (SS curve) is used to determine two key parameters of a cohesive zone model: the maximum traction and the area under the curve of traction-separation law (TSL). To this end, the true SS curve is obtained based on the nominal SS curve, and the relationship between the nominal SS curve and TSL is derived based on an assumption that the stress for cracking should be the same in both CZM and the real material. In particular, the true SS curve after necking is derived from the nominal SS curve by taking the average of the power law extrapolation and the linear extrapolation, and a damage factor is introduced to offset the true stress reduction caused by the voids generated at the necking zone. The maximum traction of the TSL is equal to the maximum true stress calculated based on the damage factor at the end of hardening. In addition, a simple specimen is simulated by Abaqus/Standard to calculate the critical J-integral, and the fracture energy calculated by the critical J-integral represents the stored strain energy in the necking zone calculated by the true SS curve. Finally, the CZM parameters obtained by the present method are compared to those used in a previous related work for a simulation of the drop-weight tear test.

Keywords: dynamic fracture, cohesive zone model, traction-separation law, stress-strain curve, J-integral

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Authors: Shoujia Fang, Guoqing Ding, Xin Chen

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The quality of press-fit assembly is closely related to reliability and safety of product. The paper proposed a keypoint detection method based on convolutional neural network to improve the accuracy of keypoint detection in press-fit curve. It would provide an auxiliary basis for judging quality of press-fit assembly. The press-fit curve is a curve of press-fit force and displacement. Both force data and distance data are time-series data. Therefore, one-dimensional convolutional neural network is used to process the press-fit curve. After the obtained press-fit data is filtered, the multi-layer one-dimensional convolutional neural network is used to perform the automatic learning of press-fit curve features, and then sent to the multi-layer perceptron to finally output keypoint of the curve. We used the data of press-fit assembly equipment in the actual production process to train CNN model, and we used different data from the same equipment to evaluate the performance of detection. Compared with the existing research result, the performance of detection was significantly improved. This method can provide a reliable basis for the judgment of press-fit quality.

Keywords: keypoint detection, curve feature, convolutional neural network, press-fit assembly

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Authors: Hromada Martin

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Risk analysis is considered as a fundamental aspect relevant for ensuring the level of critical infrastructure protection, where the critical infrastructure is seen as system, asset or its part which is important for maintaining the vital societal functions. Article actually discusses and analyzes the potential application of selected tools of information support for the implementation and within the framework of risk analysis and critical infrastructure protection. Use of the information in relation to their risk analysis can be viewed as a form of simplifying the analytical process. It is clear that these instruments (information support) for these purposes are countless, so they were selected representatives who have already been applied in the selected area of critical infrastructure, or they can be used. All presented fact were the basis for critical infrastructure resilience evaluation methodology development.

Keywords: critical infrastructure, protection, resilience, risk analysis

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Authors: Rashid Masoud Ali Al-Mazrui, Ramadhani Mashaka Shabani

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Islamic banks and financial institutions are exposed to the same risks as conventional banking. These risks include the rate return risk, credit or market risk, liquidity risk, and operational risk among others. However, being a financial institution that operates Islamic banking and finance operations, there is additional risk associated with its operations different from conventional finance, such as displacing commercial risk. They face Shari'ah compliance risks because of their failure to follow Shari'ah principles. To have proper mitigation and risk management, banks should have proper risk management policies to mitigate risks. This paper aims to study the risk management taken by Islamic banks in comparison with conventional banks. Also, the study evaluates the provisions for risk management taken by selected Islamic banks and conventional banks. The study employs qualitative analysis using secondary data by applying a content analysis approach with a sample size of 4 Islamic banks and four conventional banks ranging from 2010 to 2020. We find that these banks all use the same technique, except for the associated risk. The extra ways are used, but only for additional risks that are available to Islamic banking and finance.

Keywords: emerging risk, risk management, Islamic banking, conventional bank

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Authors: Wali Ullah, Muhammad Nishat

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The study investigates the extent to which the so called Nelson-Siegel model (DNS) and its extended version that accounts for time varying volatility (DNS-EGARCH) can optimally fit the yield curve and predict its future path in the context of an emerging economy. For the in-sample fit, both models fit the curve remarkably well even in the emerging markets. However, the DNS-EGARCH model fits the curve slightly better than the DNS. Moreover, both specifications of yield curve that are based on the Nelson-Siegel functional form outperform the benchmark VAR forecasts at all forecast horizons. The DNS-EGARCH comes with more precise forecasts than the DNS for the 6- and 12-month ahead forecasts, while the two have almost similar performance in terms of RMSE for the very short forecast horizons.

Keywords: yield curve, forecasting, emerging markets, Kalman filter, EGARCH

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Authors: Mohammed El-Arbi Khalfallah, Mohamed Lakhdar Hadji

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Managing and controlling risk is a topic research in the world of finance. Before a risky situation, the stakeholders need to do comparison according to the positions and actions, and financial institutions must take measures of a particular market risk and credit. In this work, we study a model of risk measure in finance: Value at Risk (VaR), which is a new tool for measuring an entity's exposure risk. We explain the concept of value at risk, your average, tail, and describe the three methods for computing: Parametric method, Historical method, and numerical method of Monte Carlo. Finally, we briefly describe advantages and disadvantages of the three methods for computing value at risk.

Keywords: average value at risk, conditional value at risk, tail value at risk, value at risk

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Authors: Roger L. Goodwin

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This paper presents a rank correlation curve. The traditional correlation coefficient is valid for both continuous variables and for integer variables using rank statistics. Since the correlation coefficient has already been established in rank statistics by Spearman, such a calculation can be extended to the correlation curve. This paper presents two survey questions. The survey collected non-continuous variables. We will show weak to moderate correlation. Obviously, one question has a negative effect on the other. A review of the qualitative literature can answer which question and why. The rank correlation curve shows which collection of responses has a positive slope and which collection of responses has a negative slope. Such information is unavailable from the flat, "first-glance" correlation statistics.

Keywords: Bayesian estimation, regression model, rank statistics, correlation, correlation curve

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Authors: Masoud Ghahvechi Pour

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Risk management is a systematic and regular process of identifying, analyzing and responding to risks throughout the project's life cycle in order to achieve the optimal level of elimination, reduction or control of risk. The purpose of project risk management is to increase the probability and effect of positive events and reduce the probability and effect of unpleasant events on the project. Risk management is one of the most fundamental parts of project management, so that unmanaged or untransmitted risks can be one of the primary factors of failure in a project. Effective risk management does not apply to risk regression, which is apparently the cheapest option of the activity. However, the main problem with this option is the economic sensitivity, because what is potentially profitable is by definition risky, and what does not pose a risk is economically interesting and does not bring tangible benefits. Therefore, in relation to the implemented project, effective risk management is finding a "middle ground" in its management, which includes, on the one hand, protection against risk from a negative direction by means of accurate identification and classification of risk, which leads to analysis And it becomes a comprehensive analysis. On the other hand, management using all mathematical and analytical tools should be based on checking the maximum benefits of these decisions. Detailed analysis, taking into account all aspects of the company, including stakeholder analysis, will allow us to add what will become tangible benefits for our project in the future to effective risk management. Identifying the risk of the project is based on the theory that which type of risk may affect the project, and also refers to specific parameters and estimating the probability of their occurrence in the project. These conditions can be divided into three groups: certainty, uncertainty, and risk, which in turn support three types of investment: risk preference, risk neutrality, specific risk deviation, and its measurement. The result of risk identification and project analysis is a list of events that indicate the cause and probability of an event, and a final assessment of its impact on the environment.

Keywords: risk, management, knowledge, risk management

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Authors: Puntarikorn Rungrattanakasin

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Objectives: To develop the trigger tool to warn about the risk of bleeding as an adverse event from warfarin drug usage during admission in Medical Wards of Chumphae Hospital. Methods: A retrospective study was performed by reviewing the medical records for the patients admitted between June 1st,2020- May 31st, 2021. ADEs were evaluated by Naranjo’s algorithm. The international normalized ratio (INR) and events of bleeding during admissions were collected. Statistical analyses, including Chi-square test and Reciever Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve for optimal INR threshold, were used for the study. Results: Among the 139 admissions, the INR range was found to vary between 0.86-14.91, there was a total of 15 bleeding events, out of which 9 were mild, and 6 were severe. The occurrence of bleeding started whenever the INR was greater than 2.5 and reached the statistical significance (p <0.05), which was in concordance with the ROC curve and yielded 100 % sensitivity and 60% specificity in the detection of a bleeding event. In this regard, the INR greater than 2.5 was considered to be an optimal threshold to alert promptly for bleeding tendency. Conclusions: The INR value of greater than 2.5 (>2.5) would be an appropriate trigger tool to warn of the risk of bleeding for patients taking warfarin in Chumphae Hospital.

Keywords: trigger tool, warfarin, risk of bleeding, medical wards

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Authors: Kushakov Kholmurodjon, Muhammadjonov Akbarshox

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This present paper is devoted to a system of second-order nonlinear differential equations with a special right-hand side, exactly, the linear part and a third-order polynomial of a special form. It is shown that for some relations between the parameters, there is a second-order curve in which trajectories leaving the points of this curve remain in the same place. Thus, the curve is invariant with respect to the given system. Moreover, this system is invariant under a non-degenerate linear transformation of variables. The form of this curve, depending on the relations between the parameters and the eigenvalues of the matrix, is proved. All solutions of this system of differential equations are shown analytically.

Keywords: dynamic system, ellipse, hyperbola, Hess system, polar coordinate system

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Authors: J. R. Wang, W. Y. Cheng, J. S. Yeh, S. W. Chen, Y. M. Ferng, J. H. Yang, W. S. Hsu, C. Shih

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To understand the risk for dry storage concrete casks in the cask loading, transfer, and storage phase, the purpose of this research is to establish the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) analysis methodology for dry storage concrete casks by using SAPHIRE 8 code. This analysis methodology is used to perform the study of Taiwan nuclear power plants (NPPs) dry storage system. The process of research has three steps. First, the data of the concrete casks and Taiwan NPPs are collected. Second, the PRA analysis methodology is developed by using SAPHIRE 8. Third, the PRA analysis is performed by using this methodology. According to the analysis results, the maximum risk is the multipurpose canister (MPC) drop case.

Keywords: PRA, dry storage, concrete cask, SAPHIRE

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Authors: Salisu ibrahim, Abdalla Rababah

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In this research, we use Weighted G2-Multi-degree reduction of Bezier curve of degree n to a Bezier curve of degree m, m < n. The degree reduction of Bezier curves is used to represent a given Bezier curve of n by a Bezier curve of degree m, m < n. Exact degree reduction is not possible, and degree reduction is approximate process in nature. We derive a weighted degree reducing method that is geometrically continuous at the end points. Different norms will be considered, several error minimizations will be given. The proposed methods produce error function that are less than the errors of existing methods.

Keywords: Bezier curves, multiple degree reduction, geometric continuity, error function

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Authors: D. Sigirli

Abstract:

The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve is a commonly used statistical tool for evaluating the diagnostic performance of screening and diagnostic test with continuous or ordinal scale results which aims to predict the presence or absence probability of a condition, usually a disease. When the test results were measured as numeric values, sensitivity and specificity can be computed across all possible threshold values which discriminate the subjects as diseased and non-diseased. There are infinite numbers of possible decision thresholds along the continuum of the test results. The ROC curve presents the trade-off between sensitivity and the 1-specificity as the threshold changes. The empirical ROC curve which is a non-parametric estimator of the ROC curve is robust and it represents data accurately. However, especially for small sample sizes, it has a problem of variability and as it is a step function there can be different false positive rates for a true positive rate value and vice versa. Besides, the estimated ROC curve being in a jagged form, since the true ROC curve is a smooth curve, it underestimates the true ROC curve. Since the true ROC curve is assumed to be smooth, several smoothing methods have been explored to smooth a ROC curve. These include using kernel estimates, using log-concave densities, to fit parameters for the specified density function to the data with the maximum-likelihood fitting of univariate distributions or to create a probability distribution by fitting the specified distribution to the data nd using smooth versions of the empirical distribution functions. In the present paper, we aimed to propose a smooth ROC curve estimation based on the boundary corrected kernel function and to compare the performances of ROC curve smoothing methods for the diagnostic test results coming from different distributions in different sample sizes. We performed simulation study to compare the performances of different methods for different scenarios with 1000 repetitions. It is seen that the performance of the proposed method was typically better than that of the empirical ROC curve and only slightly worse compared to the binormal model when in fact the underlying samples were generated from the normal distribution.

Keywords: empirical estimator, kernel function, smoothing, receiver operating characteristic curve

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