Search results for: weed infestation forecast

Authors: Ashwinder K. Dhaliwal, G. P. S. Dhillon

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Eucalyptus is one of the most important forest tree species that can tolerate and grow well on degraded and unfertile soils which are not suitable for other tree species. Besides this, these trees have a short rotation and good economic value. However, the gall inducing wasp Leptocybe invasa Fisher and La Salle has been reported from many countries throughout the world. The spread of L. invasa is of huge economic concern as more than 20,000 ha of young Eucalyptus trees have already been affected in southern states of India. The host plant resistance being the first line of defense against insect pests demands the screening of different germplasm source against L. invasa. Keeping this in view, fourteen different clones of Eucalyptus spp. were evaluated for their susceptibility to L. invasa from a replicated clonal trial planted at Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana. The degree of gall infestation was recorded from three plants of each clone in each replication. Three branches selected from the lower, middle and upper canopy of the trees were selected for recording the total number of galls induced by L. invasa. The statistical analysis was done as per the procedure laid down for completely randomised block design (CRBD), analysis of variance (ANOVA), critical difference (CD) and variance components using Proc GLM (SAS software 9.3, SAS Institute Ltd. U.S.A). All possible treatment means were compared with Duncan’s multiple range test (DMRT) at 1 % probability level. The results showed that the clones C-9, C-45 and C-42 were completely free from the infestation of L. invasa. However, there was minor infestation of L. invasa on C-2135, C-413, C-407, C-35, C-72 and C-37 clones. The clone C-6 was severely infested by L. invasa followed by C-11, C-12, F-316 and C-25 clones. The information generated by this study will be helpful for future breeding and use in afforestation programmes.

Keywords: eucalyptus clones, gall wasp, Leptocybe invasa, screening, susceptibility

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Authors: Alexandre M. Brighenti

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One of the most damaging species in sunflower crops in Brazil is the hairy beggarticks (Bidens pilosa L.). The large number of seeds, the various vegetative cycles during the year, the staggered germination and the scarcity of selective and effective herbicides to control this weed in sunflower are some of attributes that hinder the effectiveness in controlling hairy beggarticks populations. The experiment was carried out with the objectives of evaluating the control of hairy beggarticks plants in sunflower crops, and to assess sunflower tolerance to residual herbicides. The treatments were as follows: S-metolachlor (1,200 and 2,400 g ai ha^-1), flumioxazin (60 and 120 g ai ha^-1), sulfentrazone (150 and 300 g ai ha^-1) and two controls (weedy and weed-free check). Phytotoxicity on sunflower plants, percentage of control and density of hairy beggarticks plants, sunflower stand and plant height, head diameter, oil content and sunflower yield were evaluated. The herbicides flumioxazin and sulfentrazone were the most efficient in hairy beggarticks control. S-metolachlor provided acceptable control levels. S-metolachlor (1,200 g ha^-1), flumioxazin (60 g ha^-1) and sulfentrazone (150 g ha^-1) were the most selective doses for sunflower crop.

Keywords: flumioxazin, Helianthus annuus, S-metolachlor, sulfentrazone, weeds

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Authors: Pratap Sing, Chaman. K. Jadon, H. P. Meena, D. L.yadav, S. L. Yadav, Uditi Dhakad

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The experiment was conducted at Agricultural Research Station, Agriculture University, Kota, Rajasthan, India during kharif and rabi 2020-21 and 2021-22 to study the biofficacy of diclosulam and its residual effect on succeeding wheat crop. The treatments comprised of Diclosulam 84 % WDG viz. 6.25, 12.50, 25.00 and 37.50 g/ha as pre emergence (PE), Pendimethalin 30% EC 3.33 l/ha, Sulfentrazon 48% SC 750 g/ha, hand weeding at 30 and 45 DAS and weedy check, were evaluated in randomized block design in three replications. The experimental soil was clay in texture and non-calcareous. Experimental field was mainly dominated by grasses-Echinochloa colonum, E.crusgalli,Cynodon dactylon, Sedges-Cyperus rotundus and broad leaved weeds Celosia argentea and Digera arvensis.The result revealed that application of Diclosulam 84 % WDG 25 g/ha PE was found effective in controlling mostly weed species and registered higher weed control efficiency 81.2, 74.3, 69.6 per cent at 30, 45 days after sowing and at harvest. Diclosulam 84 % WDG (6.25-25.0 g/ha) was found selective to the soybean crop as no any phytotoxicity symptoms were observed. Among the herbicidal treatments, Diclosulam 84 % WDG 25 g/ha registered maximum and significantly higher soybean seed yield (1889 and 1431 kg/ha during kharif 2020 and 2021, respectively and was at par with Sulfentrazone 48% SC 750 g/ha and over weedy check( 1027 and 667 kg/ha).The wheat crop growth, yield attributes and seed yield were not influenced due to carry over effect of the Diclosulam 84 % WDG( 6.25-25.0 g/ha) and no any phytotoxicity symptoms were observed. Henceforth, the Diclosulam 84 % WDG 25.0 g/ha as pre emergence may be used in the soybean for effective weed control without carry over effect on succeeding wheat crop.

Keywords: Diclosulam, soybean, carry over effect, succeeding wheat

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Authors: Jie Ji, Jing Xu, Yuehong Zhuang, Xiangqing Kang, Ying Qian, Ping Zhou, Di Xue

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Background: In 2014, there were 28,341 health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai and the number per 1000 population was 5.199, 55.55% higher than that in 2006. But it was always less than the average number of health professionals per 1000 population in Shanghai from 2006 to 2014. Therefore, allocation planning for the health professionals in Pudong new area has become a high priority task in order to meet the future demands of health care. In this study, we constructed an objective-based system dynamics model to forecast the number of health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai in 2020. Methods: We collected the data from health statistics reports and previous survey of human resources in Pudong new area of Shanghai. Nine experts, who were from health administrative departments, public hospitals and community health service centers, were consulted to estimate the current and future status of nine variables used in the system dynamics model. Based on the objective of the number of health professionals per 1000 population (8.0) in Shanghai for 2020, the system dynamics model for health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai was constructed to forecast the number of health professionals needed in Pudong new area in 2020. Results: The system dynamics model for health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai was constructed. The model forecasted that there will be 37,330 health professionals (6.433 per 1000 population) in 2020. If the success rate of health professional recruitment changed from 20% to 70%, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would be changed from 5.269 to 6.919. If this rate changed from 20% to 70% and the success rate of building new beds changed from 5% to 30% at the same time, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would be changed from 5.269 to 6.923. Conclusions: The system dynamics model could be used to simulate and forecast the health professionals. But, if there were no significant changes in health policies and management system, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would not reach the objectives in Pudong new area in 2020.

Keywords: allocation planning, forecast, health professional, system dynamics

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Authors: Paulo Cesar Pereira Junior, Alexandre Monteiro, Rafael da Luz Ribeiro, Antonio Carlos Sobieranski, Aldo von Wangenheim

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In this paper, we present a comparison between convolutional neural networks and classical computer vision approaches, for the specific precision agriculture problem of weed mapping on sugarcane fields aerial images. A systematic literature review was conducted to find which computer vision methods are being used on this specific problem. The most cited methods were implemented, as well as four models of convolutional neural networks. All implemented approaches were tested using the same dataset, and their results were quantitatively and qualitatively analyzed. The obtained results were compared to a human expert made ground truth for validation. The results indicate that the convolutional neural networks present better precision and generalize better than the classical models.

Keywords: convolutional neural networks, deep learning, digital image processing, precision agriculture, semantic segmentation, unmanned aerial vehicles

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Authors: Sikhou Drame, Arfang Diamanka

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This study focuses on an examination of the Monogenea community of the Lamellodiscus genus, parasites of teleost fish of the Dentex genus (Sparidae): Dentex angolensis, Dentex canariensis, Dentex macrophthalmus, and Dentex maroccanus from two landing sites in Dakar: Soumbédioune landing and Hann Bel Air landing. Observing the morpho-anatomical criteria of the monogeneans collected from all host species reveals the presence of 6 species of the Lamellodiscus genus (Monogenea, Diplectanidae): Lamellodiscus euzeti in Dentex canariensis, Lamellodiscus dentexi, Lamellodiscus toguebayei, Lamellodiscus triacies, and Lamellodiscus vicinus in Dentex macrophthalmus; Lamellodiscus crampus in its usual host Dentex marrocanus and we found it in Dentex angolensis. The results of the study on the distribution of parasitic indices in the studied host species show that infestation rates and parasite burdens vary from one host species to another and from one season to another. However, it is during the hot season that the values of infestation intensity and abundance are highest. Additionally, we note that Dentex canariensis records the highest parasite burdens in both locations.

Keywords: lamellodiscus, fish, dentex, Dakar, Monogenea

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Authors: Dmytro Zubov, Francesco Volponi

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In this paper, D-Wave quantum computing Ising model is used for the forecasting of positive extremes of daily mean air temperature. Forecast models are designed with two to five qubits, which represent 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-day historical data respectively. Ising model’s real-valued weights and dimensionless coefficients are calculated using daily mean air temperatures from 119 places around the world, as well as sea level (Aburatsu, Japan). In comparison with current methods, this approach is better suited to predict heat wave values because it does not require the estimation of a probability distribution from scarce observations. Proposed forecast quantum computing algorithm is simulated based on traditional computer architecture and combinatorial optimization of Ising model parameters for the Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport dataset with 1-day lead-time on learning sample (1975-2010 yr). Analysis of the forecast accuracy (ratio of successful predictions to total number of predictions) on the validation sample (2011-2014 yr) shows that Ising model with three qubits has 100 % accuracy, which is quite significant as compared to other methods. However, number of identified heat waves is small (only one out of nineteen in this case). Other models with 2, 4, and 5 qubits have 20 %, 3.8 %, and 3.8 % accuracy respectively. Presented three-qubit forecast model is applied for prediction of heat waves at other five locations: Aurel Vlaicu, Romania – accuracy is 28.6 %; Bratislava, Slovakia – accuracy is 21.7 %; Brussels, Belgium – accuracy is 33.3 %; Sofia, Bulgaria – accuracy is 50 %; Akhisar, Turkey – accuracy is 21.4 %. These predictions are not ideal, but not zeros. They can be used independently or together with other predictions generated by different method(s). The loss of human life, as well as environmental, economic, and material damage, from extreme air temperatures could be reduced if some of heat waves are predicted. Even a small success rate implies a large socio-economic benefit.

Keywords: heat wave, D-wave, forecast, Ising model, quantum computing

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Authors: Ubaidillah Zuhdi, Shunsuke Mori, Kazuhisa Kamegai

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The purpose of this study is to forecast the influences of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on the structural changes of Japanese economies based on Leontief Input-Output (IO) coefficients. This study establishes a statistical analysis to predict the future interrelationships among industries. We employ the Constrained Multivariate Regression (CMR) model to analyze the historical changes of input-output coefficients. Statistical significance of the model is then tested by Likelihood Ratio Test (LRT). In our model, ICT is represented by two explanatory variables, i.e. computers (including main parts and accessories) and telecommunications equipment. A previous study, which analyzed the influences of these variables on the structural changes of Japanese industrial sectors from 1985-2005, concluded that these variables had significant influences on the changes in the business circumstances of Japanese commerce, business services and office supplies, and personal services sectors. The projected future Japanese economic structure based on the above forecast generates the differentiated direct and indirect outcomes of ICT penetration.

Keywords: forecast, ICT, industrial structural changes, statistical analysis

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Authors: Reza Siyami, Bahram Mirshekari

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Seed and oil yield of rapeseed is considerably affected by weeds interference including mustard (Sinapis arvensis L.), lambsquarters (Chenopodium album L.) and redroot pigweed (Amaranthus retroflexus L.) throughout the East Azerbaijan province in Iran. To formulate the relationship between four independent growth variables measured in our experiment with a dependent variable, multiple regression analysis was carried out for the weed leaves number per plant (X1), green cover percentage (X2), LAI (X3) and leaf area per plant (X4) as independent variables and rapeseed oil yield as a dependent variable. The multiple regression equation is shown as follows: Seed essential oil yield (kg/ha) = 0.156 + 0.0325 (X1) + 0.0489 (X2) + 0.0415 (X3) + 0.133 (X4). Furthermore, the stepwise regression analysis was also carried out for the data obtained to test the significance of the independent variables affecting the oil yield as a dependent variable. The resulted stepwise regression equation is shown as follows: Oil yield = 4.42 + 0.0841 (X2) + 0.0801 (X3); R2 = 81.5. The stepwise regression analysis verified that the green cover percentage and LAI of weed had a marked increasing effect on the oil yield of rapeseed.

Keywords: green cover percentage, independent variable, interference, regression

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Authors: Anas Cherqui, Audrey Pecourt, Manuella Catterou, Candice Mazoyon, Hervé Demailly, Vivien Sarazin, Frédéric Dubois, Jérôme Duclercq

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Aphids are pests that can cause severe yield losses in field crops. Chemical control is currently widely used to control aphids, but this method is increasingly controversial. The pea is able to recruit bacteria that are beneficial to its development, growth and health. However, the effects of this microbial recruitment on plant-insect interactions have generally been underestimated. This study investigated the interactions between Pisum sativum, key bacteria of pea rhizosphere (Rhizobium and Sphingomonas species) and the pea aphid, Acyrthosiphon pisum. We assessed the bottom-up effects of single and combined bacterial inoculations on pea plant health and subsequent aphid performance, as well as the top-down effects of aphid infestation on soil functionality. The presence of S. sediminicola or S. daechungensis limited the fecundity of the pea aphid without strongly affecting its feeding behaviour. Nevertheless, these bacteria limited the effect of A. pisum on the plant phenotype. In addition, the aphid infestation decreased the soil functionality, suggesting a potential strategy to hinder the recruitment of beneficial microorganisms.

Keywords: Acyrthosiphon pisum, Pisum sativum, Sphingomonas, rhizobium, EPG, productivity

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Authors: Hacene Benkhoula, Mohamed Badreddine Benabdella, Hamid Bouzeboudja, Abderrahmane Asraoui

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The wind is a random variable difficult to master, for this, we developed a mathematical and statistical methods enable to modeling and forecast wind power. Gaussian Processes (GP) is one of the most widely used families of stochastic processes for modeling dependent data observed over time, or space or time and space. GP is an underlying process formed by unrecognized operator’s uses to solve a problem. The purpose of this paper is to present how to forecast wind power by using the GP. The Gaussian process method for forecasting are presented. To validate the presented approach, a simulation under the MATLAB environment has been given.

Keywords: wind power, Gaussien process, modelling, forecasting

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Authors: U. Pangnakorn, S. Chuenchooklin

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Acute and chronic effects of biopesticide from entomopathogenic nematode (Steinernema thailandensis n. sp.), bacteria ISR (Pseudomonas fluorescens), wood vinegar and fermented organic substances from plants: (neem Azadirachta indica + citronella grass Cymbopogon nardus Rendle + bitter bush Chromolaena odorata L.) were tested on culantro (Eryngium foetidum L.). The biopesticide was investigated for infestation reduction of the major insect pest whitefly (Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius)). The experimental plots were located at a farm in Nakhon Sawan Province, Thailand. This study was undertaken during the drought season (late November to May). Effectiveness of the treatment was evaluated in terms of acute and chronic effect. The populations of whitefly were observed and recorded every hour up to 3 hours with insect nets and yellow sticky traps after the treatments were applied for the acute effect. The results showed that bacteria ISR had the highest effectiveness for controlling whitefly infestation on culantro; the whitefly numbers on insect nets were 12.5, 10.0 and 7.5 after 1 hr, 2 hr, and 3 hr, respectively while the whitefly on yellow sticky traps showed 15.0, 10.0 and 10.0 after 1 hr, 2 hr, and 3 hr, respectively. For chronic effect, the whitefly was continuously collected and recorded at weekly intervals; the result showed that treatment of bacteria ISR found the average whitefly numbers only 8.06 and 11.0 on insect nets and sticky traps respectively, followed by treatment of nematode where the average whitefly was 9.87 and 11.43 on the insect nets and sticky traps, respectively. In addition, the minor insect pests were also observed and collected. The biopesticide influenced the reduction number of minor insect pests (red spider mites, beet armyworm, short-horned grasshopper, pygmy locusts, etc.) with only a few found on the culantro cultivation.

Keywords: whitefly (Bemisia tabaci Gennadius), culantro (Eryngium foetidum L.), acute and chronic effect, entomopathogenic nematode (Steinernema thailandensis n. sp.), bacteria ISR (Pseudomonas fluorescens)

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Authors: Qamar Iqbal

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Companies strive to improve their forecasting methods to predict the fluctuations in customer demand. These fluctuation and variation in demand affect the manufacturing operations and can limit a company’s ability to fulfill customer demand on time. Companies keep the inventory buffer and maintain the stocking levels to reduce the impact of demand variation. A mid-size company deals with thousands of stock keeping units (skus). It is neither easy and nor efficient to control and manage each sku. Inventory classification provides a tool to the management to increase their ability to support customer demand. The paper presents a framework that shows how inventory classification can play a role to increase supply chain responsiveness. A case study will be presented to further elaborate the method both for build-to-order and build-to-forecast manufacturing environments. Results will be compared that will show which manufacturing setting has advantage over another under different circumstances. The outcome of this study is very useful to the management because this will give them an insight on how inventory classification can be used to increase their ability to respond to changing customer needs.

Keywords: inventory classification, supply chain responsiveness, forecast, manufacturing environment

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Authors: Ghulam Abbas, Ikramul Haq, Ghulam Ghouse

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Bread wheat Triticum aestivum L. (Poaceae) is the major source of the staple food for a number of countries of the world including Pakistan. Since it is the staple food of the country, it has been desired, and efforts have been made, that it does not undergo application of pesticides to ensure the food safety. Luckily, wheat does not face a serious threat of insect pests, in ecological conditions of Pakistan, except aphids and armyworm which infest the wheat prior to maturity. It has been observed that almost 5 species of aphid have been reported to attack wheat ie. Ropalosiphum maidi, R. Padi, Schizaphis graminum, Diuraphis noxia, and Sitibion miscanthi but due to natural rise in temperature in terminal season of wheat, the population of aphid gradually decreases and wheat has a safe escape from its infestation. In case, mild temperatures 15ºC to 30ºC prolong, the infestation of aphids also prolongs and it can severely damage wheat in patches, and it has potential to substantially reduce the yield of wheat in infested patch. In years 2013, 2014, and 2015 the studies were undertaken to determine the potential of damage caused by aphid complex in 10 fields in infested patches. The damage caused by aphid complex was calculated on the basis of 1000 grain weight of wheat grains taken from the infested patch and were compared with 1000 grain weight of the healthy plants of the same fields. It was observed that there was 26 to 42% decrease in the weight of grain in infested patches. This patch also escaped from general harvesting by combine harvester and enhanced the loss 13 to 46%. The quality of the wheat straw was also reduced and its acceptance to the animals was also affected up to 50 to 100%. Moreover, the population of naturally existing beneficial fauna was recorded and factors promoting establishment and manipulation of beneficial fauna were studied and analysed.

Keywords: Triticum aestivum, wheat, Pakistan, beneficial fauna, aphid complex

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Authors: Md. Abud Darda

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Different options for natural gas production in wide geographic areas may be described through diffusion of innovation models. This type of modeling approach provides an indirect estimate of an ultimately recoverable resource, URR, capture the quantitative effects of observed strategic interventions, and allow ex-ante assessments of future scenarios over time. In order to ensure a sustainable energy policy, it is important to forecast the availability of this natural resource. Considering a finite life cycle, in this paper we try to investigate the natural gas production of Myanmar and Algeria, two important natural gas provider in the world energy market. A number of homogeneous and heterogeneous diffusion models, with convenient extensions, have been used. Models validation has also been performed in terms of prediction capability.

Keywords: diffusion models, energy forecast, natural gas, nonlinear production

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Authors: G. Disciglio, G. Gatta, F. Lops, A. Libutti, A. Tarantino, E. Tarantino

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The experimental trial was carried out in open field at Foggia district (Apulia Region, Southern Italy), during the spring-summer season 2014, in order to evaluate the effect of four biostimulant products (RadiconÒ, Viormon plusÒ, LysodinÒ and SiaptonÒ 10L), compared with a control (no biostimulant), on the infestation of processing tomato crop (cv Dres) by the chlorophyll-lacking root parasite Phelipanche ramosa. Biostimulants consist in different categories of products (microbial inoculants, humic and fulvic acids, hydrolyzed proteins and aminoacids, seaweed extracts) which play various roles in plant growing, including the improvement of crop resistance and quali-quantitative characteristics of yield. The experimental trial was arranged according to a complete randomized block design with five treatments, each of one replicated three times. The processing tomato seedlings were transplanted on 5 May 2014. Throughout the crop cycle, P. ramosa infestation was assessed according to the number of emerged shoots (branched plants) counted in each plot, at 66, 78 and 92 day after transplanting. The tomato fruits were harvested at full-stage of maturity on 8 August 2014. From each plot, the marketable yield was measured and the quali-quantitative yield parameters (mean weight, dry matter content, colour coordinate, colour index and soluble solids content of the fruits) were determined. The whole dataset was tested according to the basic assumptions for the analysis of variance (ANOVA) and the differences between the means were determined using Tukey’s tests at the 5% probability level. The results of the study showed that none of the applied biostimulants provided a whole control of Phelipanche, although some positive effects were obtained from their application. To this respect, the RadiconÒ appeared to be the most effective in reducing the infestation of this root-parasite in tomato crop. This treatment also gave the higher tomato yield.

Keywords: biostimulant, control methods, Phelipanche ramosa, tomato crop

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Authors: Yetunde I. Bulu, Moses B. Adewole, Julius O. Faluyi

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This study investigates the effect of aggressive application of herbicide on weed succession in an urban environment in Ile-Ife, Osun State. An inspection of the communities was carried out to identify sites maintained by herbicides (test plots) and those without herbicide history (control plots). Four different experimental plots located at Olasode, Eleweran, Ife City and Parakin within Ile-Ife town were monitored during the study. Comprehensive enumeration and identification of plant populations to species level was carried out on each of the plots and at every visit to determine the direction of succession. Index of similarities was used to determine the relationship in plant species composition between plots treated with herbicide and the untreated plots. The trend of increasing plant species was observed in all the study plots. Low Similarity Index between the treated plots and the control vegetation was observed at all visitations. Low similarity was also observed between the above-ground vegetation and the seed bank in all the plots. The study concluded that the weed population observed from the experimental plots showed an increase in species richness and diversity when the plots were left to recover compared to the control plots.

Keywords: herbicide, index of similarity, population, soil seed bank, succession

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Authors: Mariyam Arif, Ye Liu, Israr Ul Haq, Ahsan Ashfaq

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High cost of fossil fuels and intensifying installations of alternate energy generation sources are intimidating main challenges in power systems. Making accurate load forecasting an important and challenging task for optimal energy planning and management at both distribution and generation side. There are many techniques to forecast load but each technique comes with its own limitation and requires data to accurately predict the forecast load. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is one such technique to efficiently forecast the load. Comparison between two different ranges of input datasets has been applied to dynamic ANN technique using MATLAB Neural Network Toolbox. It has been observed that selection of input data on training of a network has significant effects on forecasted results. Day-wise input data forecasted the load accurately as compared to year-wise input data. The forecasted load is then distributed among the six generators by using the linear programming to get the optimal point of generation. The algorithm is then verified by comparing the results of each generator with their respective generation limits.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, demand-side management, economic dispatch, linear programming, power generation dispatch

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Authors: Syazreen N. Shair, Saiful A. Ishak, Aida Y. Yusof, Azizah Murad

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In this paper, we forecast age-specific Malaysian mortality rates and life expectancy at births by gender and ethnic groups including Malay, Chinese and Indian. Two mortality forecasting models are adopted the original Lee-Carter model and its recent modified version, the product ratio coherent model. While the first forecasts the mortality rates for each subpopulation independently, the latter accounts for the relationship between sub-populations. The evaluation of both models is performed using the out-of-sample forecast errors which are mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) for mortality rates and mean forecast errors (MFE) for life expectancy at births. The best model is then used to perform the long-term forecasts up to the year 2030, the year when Malaysia is expected to become an aged nation. Results suggest that in terms of overall accuracy, the product ratio model performs better than the original Lee-Carter model. The association of lower mortality group (Chinese) in the subpopulation model can improve the forecasts of high mortality groups (Malay and Indian).

Keywords: coherent forecasts, life expectancy at births, Lee-Carter model, product-ratio model, mortality rates

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Authors: Nop Sopipan

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In this paper, we forecast the volatility of Baht/USDs using Markov Regime Switching GARCH (MRS-GARCH) models. These models allow volatility to have different dynamics according to unobserved regime variables. The main purpose of this paper is to find out whether MRS-GARCH models are an improvement on the GARCH type models in terms of modeling and forecasting Baht/USD volatility. The MRS-GARCH is the best performance model for Baht/USD volatility in short term but the GARCH model is best perform for long term.

Keywords: volatility, Markov Regime Switching, forecasting, Baht/USD

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Authors: Marwan Keshlaf, Hassan Fellah

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This study was designed to test whether hive bottom boards modified with polyvinyl chloride pipe or screen-mesh reduces number of Varroa mites in naturally infested honeybee colonies comparing to chemical control. Fifty six colonies distributed equally between two location each received one of four experimental treatment 1) conventional solid board “control”, 2) Apistan in conventional solid board, 3) Mesh bottom board and 4) tube bottom board. Varroa infestation level on both adult bees and on capped brood was estimated. Stored pollen, capped brood area and honey production were also measured. Results of varroa infestation were inconsistent between apiaries. In apiary 1, colonies with Apistan had fewer Varroa destructor than other treatments, but this benefit was not apparent in Apiary 2. There were no effects of modified bottom boards on bee flight activity, brood production, honey yield and stored pollen. We conclude that the efficacy of modified bottom boards in reducing varroa mites population in bee colonies remains uncertain due to observed differences of hygienic behavior.

Keywords: Apis mellifera, modified bottom boards, Varroa destructor, Honeybee colonies

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Authors: Khin Nyunt Yee, Mu Mu Thein

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Detection survey of mango seed and Pulp weevils was undertaken at major mango production areas, Yat Sauk, Taunggyi, Nyaung Shwe and Hopong Townships, in Shan State (South) of Myanmar on two mango cultivars of Sein Ta Lone and Yinkwe from May to August 2016 to coincide with fruiting season to conduct a survey of mango seed and pulp weevils population. The total numbers of 6300 fruits of both mango cultivars were sampled. Among them, 2900 fruits from 5674 fruit bearing plants were collected for Sein Ta Lone cultivar of five well managed, one unmanaged orchards and Urban in Yatsauk Twonship, 400 fruits from only one well managed orchard in Taunggyi Township, 400 fruits from two managed orchards in Nyaung Shwe Township and 400 fruits from one managed orchard in Hopong Township from May to June. 2200 fruits were collected from 4043 fruit bearing plants for Yinkwe Cultivar of four well managed orchards, one unmanaged orchards and one wild tree only in Yat Sauk Township from July to August, 2016. Fruit sample size was 200 fruits /orchard, / wild or /volunteer trees as minimum number. The pulps of all randomly sampling fruits were longitudinal cut open into three slices on each side of fruit and seed were cut longitudinally to inspect the presence of mango weevils. The collected weevils were identified up to species level at Plant Quarantine Laboratory, Plant Protection Division, Department of Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation, Yangon, Myanmar. Mango Pulp and Seed weevils were found on Sein Ta Lone Mango Cultivar in three out of four surveyed Townships except Hopong with the level of infestation ranged from 0.0% to 3.5% of fruits per Township with 0.0% to 39.0% of fruits per orchard. The highest infestation rate per township was 3.5% of fruits (n=400 fruits) in Nyaung Shwe, then, at Yat Suak, the rate was 2.47% (n=2900 fruits). A well-managed orchard at Taung Gyi had 0.75% (n=400 fruits) whereas Hopong was free 0.0% (n=400). The weevils were also recorded on Yinkwe Mango Cultivar in Yatsauk Township where the infestation level was 12.63% of fruits (n=2200) with 0.0% to 67.0% of fruits per orchard. This high level of infestation was obtained by including an absolutely non Integrated Pest Management (non IPM) orchards in both survey with the infestation rates 63.0% of fruits (n=200) and 67.0% of fruits (n=200) respectively on Yinkwe cultivar. Two different species; mango pulp weevil, Sternochetus frigitus, and mango seed weevil Sternochetus olivieri (Faust) of family Curculionidae under the order Coleoptera were recorded. Sternochetus mangiferae was not found during these surveys. Three different developmental stages of mango seed and pulp weevils: larva, pupa and adult were first detected since the first survey in 3rd week of May and mostly were recorded as adult stages in the following surveys in June, July and August The number of Mango pulp weevil was statistically higher than that of mango seed weevils at P < 0.001%. More precise surveys should be carried out national wide to detect the mango weevils.

Keywords: mango pulp weevil, Sternochetus frigitus, mango seed weevil Sternochetus olivieri, faust, Sternochetus mangiferae, fabricius, Sein Ta Lone, Yinkwe mango cultivars, Shan State (South) Myanmar

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Authors: M. Mulumpwa, W. W. L. Jere, M. Lazaro, A. H. N. Mtethiwa

Abstract:

The study considered Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) processes to select an appropriate stochastic model to forecast the monthly data from the Lake Malawi water levels for the period 1986 through 2015. The appropriate model was chosen based on SARIMA (p, d, q) (P, D, Q)S. The Autocorrelation function (ACF), Partial autocorrelation (PACF), Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), Box–Ljung statistics, correlogram and distribution of residual errors were estimated. The SARIMA (1, 1, 0) (1, 1, 1)12 was selected to forecast the monthly data of the Lake Malawi water levels from August, 2015 to December, 2021. The plotted time series showed that the Lake Malawi water levels are decreasing since 2010 to date but not as much as was the case in 1995 through 1997. The future forecast of the Lake Malawi water levels until 2021 showed a mean of 474.47 m ranging from 473.93 to 475.02 meters with a confidence interval of 80% and 90% against registered mean of 473.398 m in 1997 and 475.475 m in 1989 which was the lowest and highest water levels in the lake respectively since 1986. The forecast also showed that the water levels of Lake Malawi will drop by 0.57 meters as compared to the mean water levels recorded in the previous years. These results suggest that the Lake Malawi water level may not likely go lower than that recorded in 1997. Therefore, utilisation and management of water-related activities and programs among others on the lake should provide room for such scenarios. The findings suggest a need to manage the Lake Malawi jointly and prudently with other stakeholders starting from the catchment area. This will reduce impacts of anthropogenic activities on the lake’s water quality, water level, aquatic and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems thereby ensuring its resilience to climate change impacts.

Keywords: forecasting, Lake Malawi, water levels, water level fluctuation, climate change, anthropogenic activities

Procedia PDF Downloads 230

Authors: Korpapa Srisamai, Pawee Siriruk

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to forecast product demands and develop appropriate and adequate procurement plans to meet customer needs and reduce costs. When the product exceeds customer demands or does not move, it requires the company to support insufficient storage spaces. Moreover, some items, when stored for a long period of time, cause deterioration to dead stock. A case study of the wholesale company of electronic equipment and components, which has uncertain customer demands, is considered. The actual purchasing orders of customers are not equal to the forecast provided by the customers. In some cases, customers have higher product demands, resulting in the product being insufficient to meet the customer's needs. However, some customers have lower demands for products than estimates, causing insufficient storage spaces and dead stock. This study aims to reduce the loss of sales opportunities and the number of remaining goods in the warehouse, citing 30 product samples of the company's most popular products. The data were collected during the duration of the study from January to October 2022. The methods used to forecast are simple moving averages, weighted moving average, and exponential smoothing methods. The economic ordering quantity and reorder point are used to calculate to meet customer needs and track results. The research results are very beneficial to the company. The company can reduce the loss of sales opportunities by 20% so that the company has enough products to meet customer needs and can reduce unused products by up to 10% dead stock. This enables the company to order products more accurately, increasing profits and storage space.

Keywords: demand forecast, reorder point, lost sale, dead stock

Procedia PDF Downloads 121

Authors: Manpreet Kaur, Cheol-Hong Min

Abstract:

The increasing advancement in the robotics equipped with machine vision sensors applied to precision agriculture is a demanding solution for various problems in the agricultural farms. An important issue related with the machine vision system concerns crop row and weed detection. This paper proposes an automatic furrow detection system based on real-time processing for identifying crop rows in maize fields in the presence of weed. This vision system is designed to be installed on the farming vehicles, that is, submitted to gyros, vibration and other undesired movements. The images are captured under image perspective, being affected by above undesired effects. The goal is to identify crop rows for vehicle navigation which includes weed removal, where weeds are identified as plants outside the crop rows. The images quality is affected by different lighting conditions and gaps along the crop rows due to lack of germination and wrong plantation. The proposed image processing method consists of four different processes. First, image segmentation based on HSV (Hue, Saturation, Value) decision tree. The proposed algorithm used HSV color space to discriminate crops, weeds and soil. The region of interest is defined by filtering each of the HSV channels between maximum and minimum threshold values. Then the noises in the images were eliminated by the means of hybrid median filter. Further, mathematical morphological processes, i.e., erosion to remove smaller objects followed by dilation to gradually enlarge the boundaries of regions of foreground pixels was applied. It enhances the image contrast. To accurately detect the position of crop rows, the region of interest is defined by creating a binary mask. The edge detection and Hough transform were applied to detect lines represented in polar coordinates and furrow directions as accumulations on the angle axis in the Hough space. The experimental results show that the method is effective.

Keywords: furrow detection, morphological, HSV, Hough transform

Procedia PDF Downloads 231

Authors: Martins Y. Otache, John J. Musa, Abayomi I. Kuti, Mustapha Mohammed

Abstract:

The performance of an artificial neural network (ANN) is contingent on a host of factors, for instance, the network optimisation scheme. In view of this, the study examined the general implications of the ANN training optimisation algorithm on its forecast performance. To this end, the Bayesian regularisation (Br), Levenberg-Marquardt (LM), and the adaptive learning gradient descent: GDM (with momentum) algorithms were employed under different ANN structural configurations: (1) single-hidden layer, and (2) double-hidden layer feedforward back propagation network. Results obtained revealed generally that the gradient descent with momentum (GDM) optimisation algorithm, with its adaptive learning capability, used a relatively shorter time in both training and validation phases as compared to the Levenberg- Marquardt (LM) and Bayesian Regularisation (Br) algorithms though learning may not be consummated; i.e., in all instances considering also the prediction of extreme flow conditions for 1-day and 5-day ahead, respectively especially using the ANN model. In specific statistical terms on the average, model performance efficiency using the coefficient of efficiency (CE) statistic were Br: 98%, 94%; LM: 98 %, 95 %, and GDM: 96 %, 96% respectively for training and validation phases. However, on the basis of relative error distribution statistics (MAE, MAPE, and MSRE), GDM performed better than the others overall. Based on the findings, it is imperative to state that the adoption of ANN for real-time forecasting should employ training algorithms that do not have computational overhead like the case of LM that requires the computation of the Hessian matrix, protracted time, and sensitivity to initial conditions; to this end, Br and other forms of the gradient descent with momentum should be adopted considering overall time expenditure and quality of the forecast as well as mitigation of network overfitting. On the whole, it is recommended that evaluation should consider implications of (i) data quality and quantity and (ii) transfer functions on the overall network forecast performance.

Keywords: streamflow, neural network, optimisation, algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 152

Authors: Sabah Mohammed, Jinan Fiaidhi, Darien Sawyer

Abstract:

Data integration of health through connected services can save lives in the event of a medical emergency or provide efficient and effective interventions for the benefit of the patients through the integration of bedside and bench side clinical research. Such integration will support all wind of change in healthcare by being predictive, pre-emptive, personalized, problem-oriented and participatory. Prototyping a healthcare system that enables data integration has been a big challenge for healthcare for a long time. However, an innovative solution started to emerge by focusing on problem lists where everything can connect the problem list forming a growing graph. This notion was introduced by Dr. Lawrence Weed in early 70’s, but the enabling technologies weren’t mature enough to provide a successful implementation prototype. In this article, we are describing our efforts in prototyping Dr. Lawrence Weed's problem-oriented medical record (POMR) and his patient case schema (SOAP) to shape a prototype for connected health. For this, we are using the TypeGraphQL API and our enterprise-based QL4POMR to describe a Web-Based gateway for healthcare services connectivity. Our prototype has reported success in connecting to the HL7 FHIR medical record and the OpenTarget biomedical repositories.

Keywords: connected health, problem-oriented healthcare record, SOAP, QL4POMR, typegraphQL

Procedia PDF Downloads 97

Authors: Serkan Aras, Emrah Gulay

Abstract:

Combining various forecasting models is an important tool for researchers to attain more accurate forecasts. A great number of papers have shown that selecting single models as dissimilar models, or methods based on different information as possible leads to better forecasting performances. However, there is not a certain rule regarding the number of single models to be used in any combining methods. This study focuses on determining the optimal or near optimal number for single models with the help of statistical tests. An extensive experiment is carried out by utilizing some well-known time series data sets from diverse fields. Furthermore, many rival forecasting methods and some of the commonly used combining methods are employed. The obtained results indicate that some statistically significant performance differences can be found regarding the number of the single models in the combining methods under investigation.

Keywords: combined forecast, forecasting, M-competition, time series

Procedia PDF Downloads 355

Authors: Etienne Alain Feukeu, L. W. Snyman

Abstract:

Water scarcity is becoming a real issue nowadays. Most countries in the world are facing it in their own way based on their own geographical coordinate and condition. Many countries are facing a challenge of a growing water demand as a result of not only an increased population, economic growth, but also as a pressure of the population dynamic and urbanization. In view to mitigate some of this related problem, an accurate method of water estimation and future prediction, forecast is essential to guarantee not only the sufficient quantity, but also a good water distribution and management system. Beside the fact that several works have been undertaken to address this concern, there is still a considerable disparity between different methods and standard used for water prediction and estimation. Hence this work contrast and compare two well-defined and established methods from two countries (USA and South Africa) to demonstrate the inconsistency when different method and standards are used interchangeably.

Keywords: water scarcity, water estimation, water prediction, water forecast.

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Authors: Wali Ullah, Muhammad Nishat

Abstract:

The study investigates the extent to which the so called Nelson-Siegel model (DNS) and its extended version that accounts for time varying volatility (DNS-EGARCH) can optimally fit the yield curve and predict its future path in the context of an emerging economy. For the in-sample fit, both models fit the curve remarkably well even in the emerging markets. However, the DNS-EGARCH model fits the curve slightly better than the DNS. Moreover, both specifications of yield curve that are based on the Nelson-Siegel functional form outperform the benchmark VAR forecasts at all forecast horizons. The DNS-EGARCH comes with more precise forecasts than the DNS for the 6- and 12-month ahead forecasts, while the two have almost similar performance in terms of RMSE for the very short forecast horizons.

Keywords: yield curve, forecasting, emerging markets, Kalman filter, EGARCH

Procedia PDF Downloads 539