Search results for: warm inflation

Authors: Sang-Woo Kim, Young-Seon Lee

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An important concern in metal forming, even at elevated temperatures, is whether a desired deformation can be accomplished without any failure of the material. A detailed understanding of the critical condition for crack initiation provides not only the workability limit of a material but also a guide-line for process design. This paper describes the utilization of ductile fracture criteria in conjunction with the finite element method (FEM) for predicting the onset of fracture in warm metal working processes of magnesium alloy sheets. Critical damage values for various ductile fracture criteria were determined from uniaxial tensile tests and were expressed as the function of strain rate and temperature. In order to find the best criterion for failure prediction, Erichsen cupping tests under isothermal conditions and FE simulations combined with ductile fracture criteria were carried out. Based on the plastic deformation histories obtained from the FE analyses of the Erichsen cupping tests and the critical damage value curves, the initiation time and location of fracture were predicted under a bi-axial tensile condition. The results were compared with experimental results and the best criterion was recommended. In addition, the proposed methodology was used to predict the onset of fracture in non-isothermal deep drawing processes using an irregular shaped blank, and the results were verified experimentally.

Keywords: magnesium, AZ31 alloy, ductile fracture, FEM, sheet forming, Erichsen cupping test

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Authors: R. Harman Dwi, Ryan Avirsa, P. Abraham Ivan

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Understanding of temperatures in the past, present, and future temperatures can be possible to do by analysis abundance of fossil foraminifera. This research was conducted in Sambipitu Formation, Ngalang River, Nglipar, Gunung Kidul Regency. The research method is divided into 3 stages: 1) study of literature, research based on previous researchers, 2) spatial, observation and sampling every 5-10 meters, 3) descriptive, analyzing samples consisting of a 10-gram sample weight, washing sample using 30% peroxide, biostratigraphy analysis, paleotemperature analysis using abundance of fossil, diversity analysis using Simpson diversity index method, and comparing current temperature data. There are two phases based on the appearance of Globorotalia menardii and Pulleniatina obliqueculata pointed to Phase Tropical Area, and the appearance of fossil Globigerinoides ruber and Orbulina universa fossil shows the phase of Subtropical Area. Paleotemperatur based on the appearance of Globorotalia menardii, Globigerinoides trilobus, Globigerinoides ruber, Orbulina universa, and Pulleniatina obliqueculata pointed to Warm Water Area and Warm Water Area (average surface water approximate 25°C).

Keywords: abundance, biostratigraphy, Simpson diversity index method, paleotemperature

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Authors: Subhankar Karmakar, Madhan Kumar Vasudevan, Manivannan Muniyandi

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Thermal Grill Illusion (TGI) elicits a strong and often painful sensation of burn when interlacing warm and cold stimuli that are individually non-painful, excites thermoreceptors beneath the skin. Among several theories of TGI, the “disinhibition” theory is the most widely accepted in the literature. According to this theory, TGI is the result of the disinhibition or unmasking of the pain-sensitive HPC (Heat-Pinch-Cold) nerve fibers due to the inhibition of cold-sensitive nerve fibers that are responsible for masking HPC nerve fibers. Although researchers focused on understanding TGI throughexperiments and models, none of them investigated the prediction of TGI pain intensity through a computational model. Furthermore, the comparison of psychophysically perceived TGI intensity with neurophysiological models has not yet been studied. The prediction of pain intensity through a computational model of TGI can help inoptimizing thermal displays and understanding pathological conditions related to temperature perception. The current studyfocuses on developing a computational model to predict the intensity of TGI pain and experimentally observe the perceived TGI pain. The computational model is developed based on the disinhibition theory and by utilizing the existing popular models of warm and cold receptors in the skin. The model aims to predict the neuronal activity of the HPC nerve fibers. With a temperature-controlled thermal grill setup, fifteen participants (ten males and five females) were presented with five temperature differences between warm and cold grills (each repeated three times). All the participants rated the perceived TGI pain sensation on a scale of one to ten. For the range of temperature differences, the experimentally observed perceived intensity of TGI is compared with the neuronal activity of pain-sensitive HPC nerve fibers. The simulation results show a monotonically increasing relationship between the temperature differences and the neuronal activity of the HPC nerve fibers. Moreover, a similar monotonically increasing relationship is experimentally observed between temperature differences and the perceived TGI intensity. This shows the potential comparison of TGI pain intensity observed through the experimental study with the neuronal activity predicted through the model. The proposed model intends to bridge the theoretical understanding of the TGI and the experimental results obtained through psychophysics. Further studies in pain perception are needed to develop a more accurate version of the current model.

Keywords: thermal grill Illusion, computational modelling, simulation, psychophysics, haptics

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Authors: Monika Saha, A. T. M. Hasan Zobeyer, Nasreen Jahan

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El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the interaction between atmosphere and ocean in tropical Pacific which causes inconsistent warm/cold weather in tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Due to the impact of climate change, ENSO events are becoming stronger in recent times, and therefore it is very important to study the influence of ENSO in climate studies. Bangladesh, being in the low-lying deltaic floodplain, experiences the worst consequences due to flooding every year. To reduce the catastrophe of severe flooding events, non-structural measures such as flood forecasting can be helpful in taking adequate precautions and steps. Forecasting seasonal flood with a longer lead time of several months is a key component of flood damage control and water management. The objective of this research is to identify the possible strength of teleconnection between ENSO and river flow of Surma and examine the potential possibility of long lead flood forecasting in the wet season. Surma is one of the major rivers of Bangladesh and is a part of the Surma-Meghna river system. In this research, sea surface temperature (SST) has been considered as the ENSO index and the lead time is at least a few months which is greater than the basin response time. The teleconnection has been assessed by the correlation analysis between July-August-September (JAS) flow of Surma and SST of Nino 4 region of the corresponding months. Cumulative frequency distribution of standardized JAS flow of Surma has also been determined as part of assessing the possible teleconnection. Discharge data of Surma river from 1975 to 2015 is used in this analysis, and remarkable increased value of correlation coefficient between flow and ENSO has been observed from 1985. From the cumulative frequency distribution of the standardized JAS flow, it has been marked that in any year the JAS flow has approximately 50% probability of exceeding the long-term average JAS flow. During El Nino year (warm episode of ENSO) this probability of exceedance drops to 23% and while in La Nina year (cold episode of ENSO) it increases to 78%. Discriminant analysis which is known as 'Categoric Prediction' has been performed to identify the possibilities of long lead flood forecasting. It has helped to categorize the flow data (high, average and low) based on the classification of predicted SST (warm, normal and cold). From the discriminant analysis, it has been found that for Surma river, the probability of a high flood in the cold period is 75% and the probability of a low flood in the warm period is 33%. A synoptic parameter, forecasting index (FI) has also been calculated here to judge the forecast skill and to compare different forecasts. This study will help the concerned authorities and the stakeholders to take long-term water resources decisions and formulate policies on river basin management which will reduce possible damage of life, agriculture, and property.

Keywords: El Nino-Southern Oscillation, sea surface temperature, surma river, teleconnection, cumulative frequency distribution, discriminant analysis, forecasting index

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Authors: Ayoola Femi J., Kayode Balogun

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In some African Countries, increase in Gross Domestic Products (GDP) has not translated to real development as expected by common-man in his household. For decades, a lot of contests on economic growth and development has been a nagging issues. The focus of this study is to analysing the effects of economic determinants/factors on economic advances in some African Countries by employing panel data analysis. The yearly (1990-2013) data were obtained from the world economic outlook database of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), for probing the effects of these variables on growth rate in some selected African countries which include: Nigeria, Algeria, Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burundi, Cape-Verde, Cameroun, Central African Republic, Chad, Republic Of Congo, Cote di’ Voire, Egypt, Equatorial-Guinea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Ghana, Guinea Bissau, Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritius, Morocco, Mozambique, Niger, Rwanda, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Sudan, Swaziland, Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, and Uganda. The effects of 6 macroeconomic variables on GDP were critically examined. We used 37 Countries GDP as our dependent variable and 6 independent variables used in this study include: Total Investment (totinv), Inflation (inf), Population (popl), current account balance (cab), volume of imports of goods and services (vimgs), and volume of exports of goods and services (vexgs). The results of our analysis shows that total investment, population and volume of exports of goods and services strongly affect the economic growth. We noticed that population of these selected countries positively affect the GDP while total investment and volume of exports negatively affect GDP. On the contrary, inflation, current account balance and volume of imports of goods and services’ contribution to the GDP are insignificant. The results of our analysis shows that total investment, population and volume of exports of goods and services strongly affect the economic growth. We noticed that population of these selected countries positively affect the GDP while total investment and volume of exports negatively affect GDP. On the contrary, inflation, current account balance and volume of imports of goods and services’ contribution to the GDP are insignificant. The results of this study would be useful for individual African governments for developing a suitable and appropriate economic policies and strategies. It will also help investors to understand the economic nature and viability of Africa as a continent as well as its individual countries.

Keywords: African countries, economic growth and development, gross domestic products, static panel data models

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Authors: Mohammed A. Al-Yafrsi, Fahed A. Al-Mana

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A study was conducted to evaluate the compaction-tolerance ability of some warm season turfgrasses under shade and sunlight conditions in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Hybrid bermudagrass (Cynodon dactylon): 'Tifway' and 'Tifsport', seashore paspalum (Paspalum vaginatum) and its cultivar 'Sea Isle 2000' were used. The study area was divided into two sections where one was exposed to sunlight and the other one was maintained under shade using green plastic grille (shade 70%). Turfgrasses were planted by sods in beds containing a mixture of sand, silt, and peat moss (4: 1: 1, v/v). The soil compaction was applied using a locally-made cylindrical roll (weighing 250 kg), passing four times over the growing turfgrasses for 3 days/week. The results revealed that compaction treatment led to a decrease in grass height, and it was the lowest (4.0 cm) for paspalum 'Sea Isle 2000' in February. At the shaded area, paspalum turfgrasses retained its high quality degree (4.0) in April, May, and June. In the sunlight area, the grass quality degree was the greatest (4.0) in 'Sea Isle 2000' and the lowest (3.0) in 'Tifsport'. Paspalum turfgrasses gave higher color degree (4) than bermuda grasses (2.5) in April, May, and June. The compaction also led to a decline in leaf area, fresh and dry weights of all grown turfgrasses. The grass density was high for paspalum turfgrasses indicating that their resistance to compaction was greater than bermudagrasses. It can be concluded that the best compaction and shade tolerant turfgrasses are 'Sea Isle 2000' and seashore paspalum.

Keywords: hybrid bermudagrass, seashore paspalum, soil compaction, shade area, sunlight condition

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Authors: Manamba Epaphra

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This paper analyzes the causal effect between domestic private investment, public investment, foreign direct investment and economic growth in Tanzania during the 1970-2014 period. The modified neo-classical growth model that includes control variables such as trade liberalization, life expectancy and macroeconomic stability proxied by inflation is used to estimate the impact of investment on economic growth. Also, the economic growth models based on Phetsavong and Ichihashi (2012), and Le and Suruga (2005) are used to estimate the crowding out effect of public investment on private domestic investment on one hand and foreign direct investment on the other hand. A correlation test is applied to check the correlation among independent variables, and the results show that there is very low correlation suggesting that multicollinearity is not a serious problem. Moreover, the diagnostic tests including RESET regression errors specification test, Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation LM test, Jacque-Bera-normality test and white heteroskedasticity test reveal that the model has no signs of misspecification and that, the residuals are serially uncorrelated, normally distributed and homoskedastic. Generally, the empirical results show that the domestic private investment plays an important role in economic growth in Tanzania. FDI also tends to affect growth positively, while control variables such as high population growth and inflation appear to harm economic growth. Results also reveal that control variables such as trade openness and life expectancy improvement tend to increase real GDP growth. Moreover, a revealed negative, albeit weak, association between public and private investment suggests that the positive effect of domestic private investment on economic growth reduces when public investment-to-GDP ratio exceeds 8-10 percent. Thus, there is a great need for promoting domestic saving so as to encourage domestic investment for economic growth.

Keywords: FDI, public investment, domestic private investment, crowding out effect, economic growth

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Authors: M. T. Alodat

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In this paper, we propose a mechanism for skewing any symmetric distribution. The new distribution is called the deflation-inflation distribution (DID). We discuss some statistical properties of the DID such moments, stochastic representation, log-concavity. Also we fit the distribution to real data and we compare it to normal distribution and Azzlaini's skew normal distribution. Numerical results show that the DID fits the the tree ring data better than the other two distributions.

Keywords: normal distribution, moments, Fisher information, symmetric distributions

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Authors: Masato Koizumi, Yuya Oshio, Ikkoh Funaki

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Magnetoplasma Sail (MPS) is a future spacecraft propulsion that generates high levels of thrust by inducing an artificial magnetosphere to capture and deflect solar wind charged particles in order to transfer momentum to the spacecraft. By injecting plasma in the spacecraft’s magnetic field region, the ring current azimuthally drifts on the equatorial plane about the dipole magnetic field generated by the current flowing through the solenoid attached on board the spacecraft. This ring current results in magnetosphere inflation which improves the thrust performance of MPS spacecraft. In this present study, the ring current was experimentally measured using three Rogowski Current Probes positioned in a circular array about the laboratory model of MPS spacecraft. This investigation aims to determine the detailed structure of ring current through physical experimentation performed under two different magnetic field strengths engendered by varying the applied voltage on the solenoid with 300 V and 600 V. The expected outcome was that the three current probes would detect the same current since all three probes were positioned at equal radial distance of 63 mm from the center of the solenoid. Although experimental results were numerically implausible due to probable procedural error, the trends of the results revealed three pieces of perceptive evidence of the ring current behavior. The first aspect is that the drift direction of the ring current depended on the strength of the applied magnetic field. The second aspect is that the diamagnetic current developed at a radial distance not occupied by the three current probes under the presence of solar wind. The third aspect is that the ring current distribution varied along the circumferential path about the spacecraft’s magnetic field. Although this study yielded experimental evidence that differed from the original hypothesis, the three key findings of this study have informed two critical MPS design solutions that will potentially improve thrust performance. The first design solution is the positioning of the plasma injection point. Based on the implication of the first of the three aspects of ring current behavior, the plasma injection point must be located at a distance instead of at close proximity from the MPS Solenoid for the ring current to drift in the direction that will result in magnetosphere inflation. The second design solution, predicated by the third aspect of ring current behavior, is the symmetrical configuration of plasma injection points. In this study, an asymmetrical configuration of plasma injection points using one plasma source resulted in a non-uniform distribution of ring current along the azimuthal path. This distorts the geometry of the inflated magnetosphere which minimizes the deflection area for the solar wind. Therefore, to realize a ring current that best provides the maximum possible inflated magnetosphere, multiple plasma sources must be spaced evenly apart for the plasma to be injected evenly along its azimuthal path.

Keywords: Magnetoplasma Sail, magnetosphere inflation, ring current, spacecraft propulsion

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Authors: Dionysios Kakaroumpas, Jesseka Farago, Stephen Webber

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Athletes and spectators depend on the tennis ranking system to represent the truest caliber of athletic prowess; a careful look at the current ranking system though, reveals its main weakness: it undermines expectations of fans and players. Our study proposes several key changes to the existing ranking formula that provide a fair and accurate approach to measure player performance. The study proposes a modification of the system to value: participation, continued advancement, and overall achievement. The new ranking formula facilitates closing the trust gap, encouraging competition equality, engaging the fan base, attracting investment, and promoting tennis involvement worldwide. To probe the crux of our main contention we performed week-by-week comparisons between results procured from the current and proposed formulae. After performing this rigorous case-study of top players of each gender, the findings strongly indicated that there is identifiable inflation in the ranks and enhanced the conviction that the current system should be updated. The new system is accompanied by a web-based software package freely available to anyone involved or interested in tennis rankings. The software package is designed to automatically calculate new player rankings based on a responsive, multi-faceted formula that also generates projected point scenarios and provides separate rankings for the three different court surfaces. By taking a critical look at the current tennis ranking system with consideration to the perspective of fans, players, and businesses involved, an upgrade is in order for it to maintain the balance of trust between fans and the evaluation process. In closure, this proposed solution increases fair play competition, eliminates rank inflation, and better engages fans, players, and sponsors by bringing in a new era of professional tennis.

Keywords: measurement and evaluation, rules and regulations, sports management and marketing, tennis ranking system

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Authors: Aldrin Avergas, Quennie Mariel Peñaranda, Niña Karen San Miguel, Alexis Katrina Agustin, Peralta Xusha Mae, Maria Luisa Sison

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The research is entitled “The Relationship of Socioeconomic Status and Levels of Delinquency among Senior High School Students with Secured Attachment to their Mothers”. The researchers had explored the relationship between socioeconomic status and delinquent tendencies among grade 11 students. The objective of the research is to discover if delinquent behavior will have a relationship with the current socio-economic status of an adolescent student having a warm relationship with their mothers. The researchers utilized three questionnaires that would measure the three variables of the study, namely: (1) 1SEC 2012: The New Philippines Socioeconomic Classification System was used to show the current socioeconomic status of the respondents, (2) Self-Reported Delinquency – Problem Behavior Frequency Scale was utilized to determine the individual's frequency in engaging to delinquent behavior, and (3) Inventory of Parent and Peer Attachment Revised (IPPA-R) was used to determine the attachment style of the respondents. The researchers utilized a quantitative research design, specifically correlation research. The study concluded that there is no significant relationship between socioeconomic status and academic delinquency despite the fact that these participants had secured attachment to their mother hence this research implies that delinquency is not just a problem for students belonging in the lower socio-economic status and that even having a warm and close relationship with their mothers is not sufficient enough for these students to completely be free from engaging in delinquent acts. There must be other factors (such as peer pressure, emotional quotient, self-esteem or etc.) that are might be contributing to delinquent behaviors.

Keywords: adolescents, delinquency, high school students, secured attachment style, socioeconomic status

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Authors: Che Hsiu Chen, Kuo Wei Tseng, Zih Jian Huang, Hon Wen Cheng

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A typical warm-up contains both stretching exercises and jogging. The static stretching prior to training or competition may cause detrimental effects to athletic performance. However, it is unclear whether different types of dynamic stretching exercises had different acute effects on knee flexors stiffness, flexibility, and strength. The purpose of this study was to analyze the knee flexors stiffness, flexibility, and strength gains after dynamic straight leg raise (DSLR) and dynamic modified toe-touch (MTT) stretching. Sixteen healthy university active men (height 176.27 ± 4.03 cm; weight 72.27 ± 8.90 kg; age 22.09 ± 2.31 years). After 5 minutes (8km/h) of running subjects performed 2 randomly ordered stretching protocols: DSLR and MTT stretching protocols. There were a total of six, 30 seconds bouts of dynamic stretching (15 repetitions) with 30seconds rest between bouts. The outcome measures were maximal voluntary isokinetic concentric hamstring strength (60°/s), muscle flexibility test by passive straight leg raise (PSLR), active straight leg raise (ASLR), and muscle stiffness using ultrasound Acoustic Radiation Forced Impulse (ARFI) elastography before and immediately after stretching. The muscle stiffness and concentric strength decreased significantly (p < .05), the flexibility no significant change after DSLR protocol (p > .05). The concentric strength decreased significantly (p < .05), the flexibility and muscle stiffness no significant change after MTT protocol (p > .05), whereas no significant differences were found for the DSLR and MTT. Our findings suggest that dynamic stretching (30s x 6 bouts) resulted in change in muscle stiffness or may be induced slack in the musculotendinous unit thereby, reducing force production. Therefore, 30s x 6 bouts of dynamic stretching adversely affects efforts of hamstring muscle maximal concentric strength.

Keywords: sport injury, ultrasound, eccentric exercise, performance

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Authors: McKenna Halverson, Allison Karpyn

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Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic posed unprecedented challenges for families with young children in the United States. The Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC), a federal nutrition assistance program that provides low-income mothers and young children with access to healthy foods (e.g., infant formula, milk, and peanut butter), mitigated some financial challenges for families. However, the U.S. experienced a national infant formula shortage and rising inflation rates during the pandemic, which likely impacted WIC participants’ shopping experiences and well-being. As such, this study aimed to characterize how the COVID-19 pandemic and related events impacted Delaware WIC participants’ in-store benefit redemption experiences and overall well-being. Method: The authors conducted semi-structured interviews with 51 WIC participants in Wilmington, Delaware. Survey measures included demographic questions and open-ended questions regarding participants’ experiences with WIC benefit redemption during the COVID-19 pandemic. Data were analyzed using a hybrid inductive and deductive coding approach. Findings: The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted WIC participants’ shopping experiences and well-being. Specifically, participants were forced to alter their shopping behaviors to account for rising food prices (e.g., used coupons, bought less food, used food banks). Additionally, WIC participants experienced significant distress during the national infant formula shortage resulting from difficulty finding formula to feed their children. Participants also struggled with in-store benefit redemption due to inconsistencies in shelf labelling, the WIC app, and low stock of WIC foods. These findings highlight the need to reexamine WIC operations and emergency food response policy in the United States during times of crisis to optimize public health and ensure federal nutrition assistance programs meeting the needs of low-income families with young children.

Keywords: benefit redemption, COVID-19 pandemic, infant formula shortage, inflation, shopping, WIC

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Authors: Merve Begum Terzi, Orhan Arikan, Adnan Abaci, Mustafa Candemir

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Acute myocardial infarction is a major cause of death in the world. Therefore, its fast and reliable diagnosis is a major clinical need. ECG is the most important diagnostic methodology which is used to make decisions about the management of the cardiovascular diseases. In patients with acute myocardial ischemia, temporary chest pains together with changes in ST segment and T wave of ECG occur shortly before the start of myocardial infarction. In this study, a technique which detects changes in ST/T sections of ECG is developed for the early diagnosis of acute myocardial ischemia. For this purpose, a database of real ECG recordings that contains a set of records from 75 patients presenting symptoms of chest pain who underwent elective percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is constituted. 12-lead ECG’s of the patients were recorded before and during the PCI procedure. Two ECG epochs, which are the pre-inflation ECG which is acquired before any catheter insertion and the occlusion ECG which is acquired during balloon inflation, are analyzed for each patient. By using pre-inflation and occlusion recordings, ECG features that are critical in the detection of acute myocardial ischemia are identified and the most discriminative features for the detection of acute myocardial ischemia are extracted. A classification technique based on support vector machine (SVM) approach operating with linear and radial basis function (RBF) kernels to detect ischemic events by using ST-T derived joint features from non-ischemic and ischemic states of the patients is developed. The dataset is randomly divided into training and testing sets and the training set is used to optimize SVM hyperparameters by using grid-search method and 10fold cross-validation. SVMs are designed specifically for each patient by tuning the kernel parameters in order to obtain the optimal classification performance results. As a result of implementing the developed classification technique to real ECG recordings, it is shown that the proposed technique provides highly reliable detections of the anomalies in ECG signals. Furthermore, to develop a detection technique that can be used in the absence of ECG recording obtained during healthy stage, the detection of acute myocardial ischemia based on ECG recordings of the patients obtained during ischemia is also investigated. For this purpose, a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to represent the joint pdf of the most discriminating ECG features of myocardial ischemia. Then, a Neyman-Pearson type of approach is developed to provide detection of outliers that would correspond to acute myocardial ischemia. Neyman – Pearson decision strategy is used by computing the average log likelihood values of ECG segments and comparing them with a range of different threshold values. For different discrimination threshold values and number of ECG segments, probability of detection and probability of false alarm values are computed, and the corresponding ROC curves are obtained. The results indicate that increasing number of ECG segments provide higher performance for GMM based classification. Moreover, the comparison between the performances of SVM and GMM based classification showed that SVM provides higher classification performance results over ECG recordings of considerable number of patients.

Keywords: ECG classification, Gaussian mixture model, Neyman–Pearson approach, support vector machine

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Authors: Abderahman Efhialelbum

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The period since the fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989, and the collapse of the former Soviet Union in December 1985 has seen a major change in the economies and labour markets of Eastern Europe. The events also had reverberating effects across Asia and South America and parts of Africa, including Libya. This article examines the typologies and the models of transition economies. Also, it sheds light on the Libyan transition in particular and the impact of Qadhafi’s regime on the transition process. Finally, it illustrates how the Libyan transition process followed the trajectory of other countries using economic indicators such as free trade, property rights, and inflation.

Keywords: transition, economy, typology, model, Libya

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Authors: Lukasz Kurowski, Paweł Smaga

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We explore the procyclicality of monetary policy decisions towards the financial cycle in the 1995−2015 period on a sample of six central banks. Using interest rate paths and the credit-to-GDP gap to construct a monetary policy procyclicality ratio, we provide evidence that monetary policy procyclicality was high in BoE and CNB and low in Riksbank and ECB. The results support the need for coordination between macroprudential and monetary policies, for example, by including financial stability considerations to the inflation targeting strategy.

Keywords: central bank, financial stability, macroprudential policy, monetary policy

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Authors: Pouneh Soleimaninejadian, Chengyu Yang

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In this paper, we use data on Household Income and Expenditure survey of Statistics Centre of Iran, conducted from 2005-2014, to calculate several inequality measures and to estimate the effects of Iran’s targeted subsidy reform act on consumption and income inequality. We first calculate Gini coefficients for income and consumption in order to study the relation between the two and also the effects of subsidy reform. Results show that consumption inequality has not been always mirroring changes in income inequality. However, both Gini coefficients indicate that subsidy reform caused improvement in inequality. Then we calculate Generalized Entropy Index based on consumption and income for years before and after the Subsidy Reform Act of 2010 in order to have a closer look into the changes in internal structure of inequality after subsidy reforms. We find that the improvement in income inequality is mostly caused by the decrease in inequality of lower income individuals. At the same time consumption inequality has been decreased as a result of more equal consumption in both lower and higher income groups. Moreover, the increase in Engle coefficient after the subsidy reform shows that a bigger portion of income is allocated to consumption on food which is a sign of lower living standard in general. This increase in Engle coefficient is due to rise in inflation rate and relative increase in price of food which partially is another consequence of subsidy reform. We have conducted some experiments on effect of subsidy payments and possible effects of change on distribution pattern and amount of cash subsidy payments on income inequality. Result of the effect of cash payments on income inequality shows that it leads to a definite decrease in income inequality and had a bigger share in improvement of rural areas compared to those of urban households. We also examine the possible effect of constant payments on the increasing income inequality for years after 2011. We conclude that reduction in value of payments as a result of inflation plays an important role regardless of the fact that there may be other reasons. We finally experiment with alternative allocations of transfers while keeping the total amount of cash transfers constant or make it smaller through eliminating three higher deciles from the cash payment program, the result shows that income equality would be improved significantly.

Keywords: consumption inequality, generalized entropy index, income inequality, Irans subsidy reform

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Authors: Oluwasefunmi Eunice Irewole, Enrique Armas Arévalos

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Agriculture has played a crucial role in the economy and the development of many countries. Moreover, the basic needs for human survival are; food, shelter, and cloth are link on agricultural production. Most developed countries see that agriculture provides them with food and raw materials for different goods such as (shelter, medicine, fuel and clothing) which has led to an increase in incomes, livelihoods and standard of living. This study aimed at analysing the relationship between International competitiveness of agricultural products, with the area, fertilizer, labour force, economic growth, foreign direct investment, exchange rate and inflation rate in Latin America during the period of 1991-to 2019. In this study, panel data econometric methods were used, as well as cross-section dependence (Pesaran test), unit root (cross-section Augumented Dickey Fuller and Cross-sectional Im, Pesaran, and Shin tests), cointergration (Pedroni and Fisher-Johansen tests), and heterogeneous causality (Pedroni and Fisher-Johansen tests) (Hurlin and Dumitrescu test). The results reveal that the model has cross-sectional dependency and that they are integrated at one I. (1). The "fully modified OLS and dynamic OLS estimators" were used to examine the existence of a long-term relationship, and it was found that a long-term relationship existed between the selected variables. The study revealed a positive significant relationship between International Competitiveness of the agricultural raw material and area, fertilizer, labour force, economic growth, and foreign direct investment, while international competitiveness has a negative relationship with the advantages of the exchange rate and inflation. The economy policy recommendations deducted from this investigation is that Foreign Direct Investment and the labour force have a positive contribution to the increase of International Competitiveness of agricultural products.

Keywords: revealed comparative advantage, agricultural products, area, fertilizer, economic growth, granger causality, panel unit root

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Authors: C. Recommandé, J. C. Blind, A. Clavel, R. Gourichon, V. Le Gal

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Simulations are developed in this paper with usual DSGE model equations. The model is based on simplified version of Smets-Wouters equations in use at European Central Bank which implies 10 macro-economic variables: consumption, investment, wages, inflation, capital stock, interest rates, production, capital accumulation, labour and credit rate, and allows take into consideration the banking system. Throughout the simulations, this model will be used to evaluate the impact of rate shocks recounting the actions of the European Central Bank during 2008.

Keywords: CC-LM, Central Bank, DSGE, liquidity shock, non-standard intervention

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Authors: D. Castillo T., Luis F. Jimenez

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The compressed earth blocks (CEBs) constitute an alternative as a constructive element for building homes in regions with high levels of poverty and marginalization. Such is the case of Southeastern Mexico, where the population, predominantly indigene, build their houses with feeble materials like wood and palm, vulnerable to extreme weather in the area, because they do not have the financial resources to acquire concrete blocks. There are several advantages that can provide BTCs compared to traditional vibro-compressed concrete blocks, such as the availability of materials, low manufacturing cost and reduced CO2 emissions to the atmosphere for not be subjected to a burning process. However, to improve its mechanical properties and resistance to adverse weather conditions in terms of humidity and temperature of the sub-humid climate zones, it requires the use of a chemical stabilizer; in this case we chose Ca(OH)2. The stabilization method Eades-Grim was employed, according to ASTM C977-03. This method measures the optimum amount of lime required to stabilize the soil, increasing the pH to 12.4 or higher. The minimum amount of lime required in this experiment was 1% and the maximum was 10%. The employed material was clay unconsolidated low to medium plasticity (CL type according to the Unified Soil Classification System). Based on these results, the CEBs manufacturing process was determined. The obtained blocks were from 10x15x30 cm using a mixture of soil, water and lime in different proportions. Later these blocks were put to dry outdoors and subjected to several physical and mechanical tests, such as compressive strength, absorption and drying shrinkage. The results were compared with the limits established by the Mexican Standard NMX-C-404-ONNCCE-2005 for the construction of housing walls. In this manner an alternative and sustainable material was obtained for the construction of rural households in the region, with better security conditions, comfort and cost.

Keywords: calcium hydroxide, chemical stabilization, compressed earth blocks, sub-humid warm weather

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Authors: Jemal Ebrahim Dessie, Lukács Zsolt

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High-strength aluminum alloys have drawn a lot of attention because of the expanding demand for lightweight vehicle design in the automotive sector. Due to poor formability at room temperature, warm and hot forming have been advised. However, warm and hot forming methods need more steps in the production process and an advanced tooling system. In contrast, since ordinary tools can be used, forming sheets at room temperature in the W temper condition is advantageous. However, springback of supersaturated sheets and their thinning are critical challenges and must be resolved during the use of this technique. In this study, AA6082-T6 aluminum alloy was solution heat treated at different oven temperatures and times using a specially designed and developed furnace in order to optimize the W-temper heat treatment temperature. A U-shaped bending test was carried out at different time periods between W-temper heat treatment and forming operation. Finite element analysis (FEA) of U-bending was conducted using AutoForm aiming to validate the experimental result. The uniaxial tensile and unload test was performed in order to determine the kinematic hardening behavior of the material and has been optimized in the Finite element code using systematic process improvement (SPI). In the simulation, the effect of friction coefficient & blank holder force was considered. Springback parameters were evaluated by the geometry adopted from the NUMISHEET ’93 benchmark problem. It is noted that the change of shape was higher at the more extended time periods between W-temper heat treatment and forming operation. Die radius was the most influential parameter at the flange springback. However, the change of shape shows an overall increasing tendency on the sidewall as the increase of radius of the punch than the radius of the die. The springback angles on the flange and sidewall seem to be highly influenced by the coefficient of friction than blank holding force, and the effect becomes increases as increasing the blank holding force.

Keywords: aluminum alloy, FEA, springback, SPI, U-bending, W-temper

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Authors: G. Sarwar, C. Mateus, N. Todorovic

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The paper examines the asymmetries in size, value and momentum premium over the economic cycles in the UK and their macroeconomic determinants. Using Markov switching approach we find clear evidence of cyclical variations of the three premiums, most noticeably variations in size premium. We associate Markov switching regime 1 with economic upturn and regime 2 with economic downturn as per OECD’s Composite Leading Indicator. The macroeconomic indicators prompting such cyclicality the most are interest rates, term structure and credit spread. The role of GDP growth, money supply and inflation is less pronounced in our sample.

Keywords: macroeconomic determinants, Markorv Switching, size, value

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Authors: Surini Duthika Fernandopulle, Kalamba Arachchige Pramodya Wijesinghe

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Macrocapsules containing phase change material (PCM) PEG4000 as core and Calcium Alginate as the shell was synthesized by in-situ polymerization process, and their suitability for textile applications was studied. PCM macro-capsules were sandwiched between two polyurethane foams at regular intervals, and the sandwiched foams were subsequently covered with 100% cotton woven fabrics. According to the mathematical modelling and calculations 46 capsules were required to provide cooling for a period of 2 hours at 56ºC, so a panel of 10 cm x 10 cm area with 25 parts (having 5 capsules in each for 9 parts are 16 parts spaced for air permeability) were effectively merged into one textile material without changing the textile's original properties. First, the available cooling techniques related to textiles were considered and the best cooling techniques suiting the Sri Lankan climatic conditions were selected using a survey conducted for Sri Lankan Public based on ASHRAE-55-2010 standard and it consisted of 19 questions under 3 sections categorized as general information, thermal comfort sensation and requirement of Personal Cooling Garments (PCG). The results indicated that during daytime, majority of respondents feel warm and during nighttime also majority have responded as slightly warm. The survey also revealed that around 85% of the respondents are willing to accept a PCG. The developed panels were characterized using Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA) tests and the findings from FTIR showed that the macrocapsules consisted of PEG 4000 as the core material and Calcium Alginate as the shell material and findings from TGA showed that the capsules had the average weight percentage for core with 61,9% and shell with 34,7%. After heating both control samples and samples incorporating PCM panels, it was discovered that only the temperature of the control sample increased after 56ºC, whereas the temperature of the sample incorporating PCM panels began to regulate the temperature at 56ºC, preventing a temperature increase beyond 56ºC.

Keywords: phase change materials, thermal regulation, textiles, macrocapsules

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Authors: E. Syngelaki, C. C. F. Schinkel, S. Klatt, E. Hörandl

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Environmental influence can alter the conditions for plant development and can trigger changes in epigenetic variation. Thus, the exposure to abiotic environmental stress can lead to different DNA methylation profiles and may have evolutionary consequences for adaptation. Epigenetic control mechanisms may further influence mode of reproduction. The alpine species R. kuepferi has diploid and tetraploid cytotypes, that are mostly sexual and facultative apomicts, respectively. Hence, it is a suitable model system for studying the correlations of mode of reproduction, ploidy, and environmental stress. Diploid and tetraploid individuals were placed in two climate chambers and treated with low (+7°C day/+2°C night, -1°C cold shocks for three nights per week) and warm (control) temperatures (+15°C day/+10°C night). Subsequently, methylation sensitive-Amplified Fragment-Length Polymorphism (AFPL) markers were used to screen genome-wide methylation alterations triggered by stress treatments. The dataset was analyzed for four groups regarding treatment (cold/warm) and ploidy level (diploid/tetraploid), and also separately for full methylated, hemi-methylated and unmethylated sites. Patterns of epigenetic variation suggested that diploids differed significantly in their profiles from tetraploids independent from treatment, while treatments did not differ significantly within cytotypes. Furthermore, diploids are more differentiated than the tetraploids in overall methylation profiles of both treatments. This observation is in accordance with the increased frequency of apomictic seed formation in diploids and maintenance of facultative apomixis in tetraploids during the experiment. Global analysis of molecular variance showed higher epigenetic variation within groups than among them, while locus-by-locus analysis of molecular variance showed a high number (54.7%) of significantly differentiated un-methylated loci. To summarise, epigenetic variation seems to depend on ploidy level, and in diploids may be correlated to changes in mode of reproduction. However, further studies are needed to elucidate the mechanism and possible functional significance of these correlations.

Keywords: apomixis, cold stress, DNA methylation, Ranunculus kuepferi

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Authors: Murat Yildiz, Burcu Yildiz

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Price Cap Regulation is a form of economic regulation designed in the 1980s in the United Kingdom. Price cap regulation sets a cap on the price that the utility provider can charge. The cap is set according to several economic factors, such as the price cap index, expected efficiency savings and inflation. It has been used by several countries as a regulatory regime in several sectors. Container port privatization is still in early stages in some countries. Lack of a general framework can be an impediment to privatization. This paper aims a general framework to comprising decisions to be made for variables which are able to accommodate the variety of container terminals. Several approaches that may be needed as well as a passage between approaches.

Keywords: Price Cap Regulation, ports privatization, container terminal price regime, earning sharing

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Authors: Zahra Karimi

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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the role and importance of accounting for the implementation of the VAT system in the country. For this purpose, after the evaluation of specifications and important advantages of the VAT and the experience of other countries, important role of accounting in the precise determination of taxes, strategies to prevent escape of tax and realization of tax revenues of government, necessary control to increase the efficiency and accuracy of the calculations discussed. High-dependence of government to borrowing from the banking system and inflation tax and a low general ratio of tax revenues to GDP, indicating the inadequacy of the country's tax system. It can be said that being of a proper accounting system consider as a prerequisite for successful implementation of VAT in the country. So it's crucial for accountants with responsibility announce its full fitness to meet the requirements. For successful implementation of VAT as such a multi-stage sales tax and the tax on the price.

Keywords: accounting, tax reform in Iran, Value Added Tax (VAT), economic

Procedia PDF Downloads 362

Authors: George Ogono Muok, N. Obange, S. A. Odhiambo

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Empirical literature on the determinants of foreign direct investments (FDI) flows is extensive but controversial over some determinants of FDI in-flows in developing countries. The objective of this study therefore was to investigate the overall determinants of FDI inflows in Kenya. Dynamic macroeconomic theory and correlational study design provided theoretical framework for specification of a time series model. The study used data observed from 1970 to 2015 in World Development Indicators (WDI) data bank. The results show that annual growth rate of GDP, inflation rates and external debt as a proportion of GDP are significant determinants of FDI inflows in Kenya and are therefore important macroeconomic parameters for policy formulation for promotion of FDI inflows in Kenya.

Keywords: determinants of foreign, direct, investment inflows in, Kenya, Africa

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Authors: Xiaohong Xu, Tianchu Zhang, Yangfan Chen, Rongtai Tan

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In Canada, Air Quality Health Index (AQHI) is a scale designed to help residences understand the impact of air quality on human health. In Ontario, Canada, AQHI was implemented in June 2015. This study investigated temporal variability of daily AQHI and impact of regional transport on AQHI in Windsor, Ontario, Canada from 2016 to 2019. During 2016–2019, 1428 daily AQHIs were recorded in Windsor Downtown Station. Among those, the AQHIs were at the low health risk level (AQHI = 1, 2 or 3) in 82% of days, only a few days at high risk level (AQHI = 7), the rest were at moderate health risk level (AQHI = 4, 5, 6), indicating air quality in Windsor was fairly good with relatively low health risk. The annual mean AQHI value decreased from 2.95 in 2016 to 2.81 in 2019, demonstrating the improvement of air quality. Half of the days, AQHI were 3 regardless of season. AQHI was higher in the warm season (3.1) than in the cold season (2.6) due to more frequent moderate risk days (27%, AQHI = 4) in warm season and more frequent low risk days (42%, AQHI = 2) in the cold season. Among the three pollutants considered in AQHI calculation, O3 was the most frequently reported dominant contributor to daily AQHI (88% of days), followed by NO2 (12%), especially in the cold season, with small contribution from PM2.5 (<1%). In the past two decades, NO2 concentrations had decreased significantly and O3 concentrations had increased, resulting in daily AQHI being less reliance on NO2 (from 51% of days being the primary contributor during 2003–2010 to 12% during 2016–2019) and more on O3 concentrations (49% to 88%). Trajectory analysis found that AQHI ≤ 3 days were closely associated with air masses from the north and northwest, whereas AQHI > 3 days were closely associated with air masses from the west and southwest. This is because northerly flows brought in clear air mass owing to less industrial facilities, while polluted air masses were transported from the south of Windsor, where several industrial states of the US were located. Overall, O3 concentrations dictate the daily AQHI values, the seasonal variability of AQHI, and the impact of regional transport on AQHI in Windsor. This makes further reductions of AQHI challenging because O3 concentrations are likely to continue increasing due to weakened consumption of O3 by NO owing to decreasing NO emissions and more hot days because of climate change. The predominant and increasing contribution of O3 to AQHI calls for more effective control measures to mitigate O3 pollution and its impact on human health and the environment.

Keywords: air quality, Air Quality Health Index (AQHI), hysplit, regional transport, windsor

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Authors: Adeola Adenikinju, Olusanya E. Olubusoye, Lateef O. Akinpelu, Dilinna L. Nwobi

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Since the enactment of the Fiscal Responsibility Act (2007), the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) has made public its fiscal budget and the subsequent implementation report. A critical review of these documents shows significant variations in the five macroeconomic variables which are inputs in each Presidential budget; oil Production target (mbpd), oil price ($), Foreign exchange rate(N/$), and Gross Domestic Product growth rate (%) and inflation rate (%). This results in underperformance of the Federal budget expected output in terms of non-oil and oil revenue aggregates. This paper evaluates first the existing variance between budgeted and actuals, then the relationship and causality between the determinants of Federal fiscal budget assumptions, and finally the determinants of FGN’s Gross Oil Revenue. The paper employed the use of descriptive statistics, the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and a Profit oil probabilistic model to achieve these objectives. This model permits for both the static and dynamic effect(s) of the independent variable(s) on the dependent variable, unlike a static model that accounts for static or fixed effect(s) only. It offers a technique for checking the existence of a long-run relationship between variables, unlike other tests of cointegration, such as the Engle-Granger and Johansen tests, which consider only non-stationary series that are integrated of the same order. Finally, even with small sample size, the ARDL model is known to generate a valid result, for it is the dependent variable and is the explanatory variable. The results showed that there is a long-run relationship between oil revenue as a proxy for budget performance and its determinants; oil price, produced oil quantity, and foreign exchange rate. There is a short-run relationship between oil revenue and its determinants; oil price, produced oil quantity, and foreign exchange rate. There is a long-run relationship between non-oil revenue and its determinants; inflation rate, GDP growth rate, and foreign exchange rate. The grangers’ causality test results show that there is a mono-directional causality between oil revenue and its determinants. The Federal budget assumptions only explain 68% of oil revenue and 62% of non-oil revenue. There is a mono-directional causality between non-oil revenue and its determinants. The Profit oil Model describes production sharing contracts, joint ventures, and modified carrying arrangements as the greatest contributors to FGN’s gross oil revenue. This provides empirical justification for the selected macroeconomic variables used in the Federal budget design and performance evaluation. The research recommends other variables, debt and money supply, be included in the Federal budget design to explain the Federal budget revenue performance further.

Keywords: ARDL, budget performance, oil price, oil quantity, oil revenue

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Authors: Raj Kumar Rajak, Bharat Mishra

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Bio-battery represents an entirely new long term, reasonable, reachable and ecofriendly approach to production of sustainable energy. Types of batteries have been developed using MnO₂ in various ways. MnO₂ is suitable with physical, chemical, electrochemical, and catalytic properties, serving as an effective cathodic depolarizer and may be considered as being the life blood of the battery systems. In the present experimental work, we have studied the effect of generation of power by bio-battery using different concentrations of MnO₂. The tests show that it is possible to generate electricity using cow’s urine as an electrolyte. After ascertaining the optimum concentration of MnO₂, various battery parameters and performance indicates that cow urine solely produces power of 695 mW, while a combination with MnO₂ (40%) enhances power of bio-battery, i.e. 1377 mW. On adding more and more MnO₂ to the electrolyte, the power suppressed because inflation of internal resistance. The analysis of the data produced from experiment shows that MnO₂ is quite suitable to energize the bio-battery.

Keywords: bio-batteries, cow’s urine, manganese dioxide, non-conventional

Procedia PDF Downloads 229