Search results for: unthought-of situations

Authors: Salif Koné

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We analyze hydrometric data at the Koulikoro station on the Niger River; this basin drains 120600 km2 and covers three countries in West Africa, Guinea, Mali, and Ivory Coast. Two subsequent decadal cycles are highlighted (1925-1936 and 1929-1939) instead of the presumed single decadal one from literature. Moreover, the observed hydrometric data shows a multidecadal 40-year period that is confirmed when graphing a spatial coefficient of variation of runoff over decades (starting at 1901-1910). Spatial runoff data are produced on 48 grids (0.5 degree by 0.5 degree) and through semi-distributed versions of both SimulHyd model and GR2M model - variants of a French Hydrologic model – standing for Genie Rural of 2 parameters at monthly time step. Both extremal decades in terms of runoff coefficient of variation are confronted: 1951-1960 has minimal coefficient of variation, and 1981-1990 shows the maximal value of it during the three months of high-water level (August, September, and October). The mapping of the relative variation of these two decadal situations allows hypothesizing as following: the scale of variation between both extremal situations could serve to fix boundary conditions for further simulations using data from climate scenario.

Keywords: internal cycles, hydrometric data, niger river, gr2m and simulhyd framework, runoff coefficient of variation

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Authors: Ioanna Koumi

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The aim of the intervention presented is to show the positive effects a mindfulness programme can have on the behaviour of preschoolers (years 4-6). The programme was implemented as part of the psychologist's work in 5 preschool units on the Greek island of Chios. Classroom-based activities of mindfulness were shown and practiced in 5 sessions, in collaboration with teachers, in order to make preschoolers aware of how their brain affects their behaviour, as well as of how they can have more positive behaviours, especially in instances of negative feelings. The outcomes of the intervention were assessed via questionnaire completion before and after the sessions by the teachers, as well as focus groups procedures with students, teachers, and parents. Implications of how mindfulness programmes can also be implemented at home are further discussed. School year in which the programme is being implemented: 2022-23 Intervention method: based on basic mindfulness theory and practice, the 220 students (age 4-6) in 11 classes of the 5 preschools that participated were given lessons of how to become aware of their states of focusing, regulation, attention, emotional situation, as well as body and social situations. Furthermore, the preschoolers were encouraged to make more mindful choices when it came to negative situations and emotions. Assessment method: The school as a caring community Profile II – Questionnaire completed by 20 preschool teachers prior to and after the intervention, Focus group sessions with teachers, students, parents at the end of the intervention Results: the assessment will be completed in May 2023.

Keywords: preschool, mindfulness training, self-awareness, social-emotional development

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Authors: Guilherme Gomes, Jose Lebre de Freitas

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The rules of Civil Procedure that are defined in the Portuguese Civil Procedure Code of 2013 particularly their articles 552 to 626- represent the model that the legislator thought that would be more suitable for national civil litigation, from the moment the action is brought by the plaintiff to the moment when the sentence is issued. However, procedural legalism is no longer a reality in the Portuguese Civil Procedural Law. According to the article 547 of the code of 2013, the civil judge has a duty to adopt the procedure that better suits the circumstances of the case, whether or not it is the one defined by law. The main goal of our paper is to answer the question whether the formal adequation imposed by this article diminishes the importance of the Portuguese rules of Civil Procedure and their daily application by national civil judges. We will start by explaining the appearance of the abovementioned rules in the Civil Procedure Code of 2013. Then we will analyse, using specific examples that were obtained by the books we read, how the legal procedure defined in the abovementioned code does not suit the circumstances of some specific cases and is totally inefficient in some situations. After that, we will, by using the data obtained in the practical research that we are conducting in the Portuguese civil courts within the scope of our Ph.D. thesis (until now, we have been able to consult 150 civil lawsuits), verify whether and how judges and parties make the procedure more efficient and effective in the case sub judice. In the scope of our research, we have already reached some preliminary findings: 1) despite the fact that the legal procedure does not suit the circumstances of some civil lawsuits, there are only two situations of frequent use of formal adequation (the judge allowing the plaintiff to respond to the procedural exceptions deduced in the written defense and the exemption from prior hearing for the judges who never summon it), 2) the other aspects of procedural adequation (anticipation of the production of expert evidence, waiving of oral argument at the final hearing, written allegations, dismissal of the dispatch on the controversial facts and the examination of witnesses at the domicile of one of the lawyers) are still little used and 3) formal adequation tends to happen by initiative of the judge, as plaintiffs and defendants are afraid of celebrating procedural agreements in most situations. In short, we can say that, in the Portuguese legal order of the 21st century, the flexibility of the legal procedure, as it is defined in the law and applied by procedural subjects, does not affect the importance of the rules of Civil Procedure of the code of 2013.

Keywords: casuistic adequation, civil procedure code of 2013, procedural subjects, rules of civil procedure

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Authors: Nicholas Okpe

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The world is no more innocent as previously, as it gets more and more engulfed in both man-made and natural disasters and the call for religious intervention becomes intrinsically louder to the extent that any religious inclination that does not devolve into societal or humanitarian adventures makes no meaning. Issues such as wars, conflicts of different dimensions, natural and man made discomforts in form of environmental disturbances have thrown new challenges hitherto unknown to the doorsteps of religious groups especially faith based organizations. In the last two decades, the above speaks volumes in Nigeria such that Chunua Achebe's "things fallen apart" is real today all over Nigeria. An estimated five million people live in internally displaced camps all over the country as a consequence of various forms of social unrest as well as natural disasters. These incidences have brought to the fore the signifance of religion in societal affairs as many groups who through their interventions have often shown to be the hope of the people. The crux of this paper is to examine the role of religion in not only making people to cope with difficult situations they find themselves in, but also giving hope to the many who otherwise are feeling despondent and at the edge of life. Many religious groups have well developed strategies of interventions in various humanitarian situations. Thus, this paper assesses efforts of religions such as christianity, Islam and the indigenous African religion in this respect. It is discovered that the most potent and effective means of attending to humanitarian crisis today in Nigeria is through the various religious and cultural organizations as governments at various levels have lost credibility in such exercises.

Keywords: humanitarianism, religion, practice, nigeria

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Authors: Hankyu Lee, Seoung Bum Kim

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The issue with imbalance and overlapping in the class distribution becomes important in various applications of data mining. The imbalanced dataset is a special case in classification problems in which the number of observations of one class (i.e., major class) heavily exceeds the number of observations of the other class (i.e., minor class). Overlapped dataset is the case where many observations are shared together between the two classes. Imbalanced and overlapped data can be frequently found in many real examples including fraud and abuse patients in healthcare, quality prediction in manufacturing, text classification, oil spill detection, remote sensing, and so on. The class imbalance and overlap problem is the challenging issue because this situation degrades the performance of most of the standard classification algorithms. In this study, we propose a classification procedure that can effectively handle imbalanced and overlapped datasets by splitting data space into three parts: nonoverlapping, light overlapping, and severe overlapping and applying the classification algorithm in each part. These three parts were determined based on the Hausdorff distance and the margin of the modified support vector machine. An experiments study was conducted to examine the properties of the proposed method and compared it with other classification algorithms. The results showed that the proposed method outperformed the competitors under various imbalanced and overlapped situations. Moreover, the applicability of the proposed method was demonstrated through the experiment with real data.

Keywords: classification, imbalanced data with class overlap, split data space, support vector machine

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Authors: Toshiki Ito, Takahiro Yamane, Yuki Adachi, Yoshiko Kato, Eiji Tsuda, Kousaku Nagasaka, Keigo Yoshida, Yoshiko Kawasaki, Naoki Aizawa, Kyouhei Nishi, Tetsuko Kato

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The epidemic of the coronavirus (COVID-19), first reported in Wuhan at the end of 2019, has drastically changed our daily lives. Under these circumstances, counseling, which provides psychological support to people, was also greatly affected. The structure of counseling, which had generally been implicitly common practice to be conducted in person, was greatly shaken. The author wondered how counseling can be conducted in situations where it is impossible to meet face-to-face. This is where telepsychological support (online counseling) came into use. The authors found that there were the following problems in telepsychological support: (1) anxiety about whether the communication is appropriate, (2) difficulty in understanding the client's situation and condition, (3) inability to perceive what was normally perceived in person, (4) difficulty in adjusting to severely ill clients, (5) difficulty in dealing with emergency situations, etc. In this study, we interviewed psychologists who had been accustomed to telepsychological support for more than two years after the Corona disaster began to clarify how they had or had not overcome the problems of telepsychological support identified in the above studies. We also aim to consider the unique possibilities of how telepsychological support, a new technique of psychological support, can be implemented to provide more effective and meaningful support in society after the end of the Corona disaster (post-Corona society). Thirteen psychologists who are currently providing telepsychological support in the Corona Disaster will be interviewed, and semi-structured interviews will be conducted for one hour per person. In order to empirically examine how the problems in telepsychological support had been overcome or not through the interview survey, the authors asked (1) how they overcame their anxiety about whether they were able to communicate appropriately, (2) how they devised ways to overcome it, (3) how they overcame the difficulty in adapting to heavy clients in terms of the level of the disease, (4) how they overcame the difficulty in dealing with emergency situations. The interviews were analyzed using Thematic Analysis, a qualitative analysis method commonly used in qualitative research overseas. The authors found that some devices and perspectives were newly discovered as a result of two years of practice of telepsychological support and that psychologists in this study considered face-to-face interviews and telepsychological support to be separate and were flexible enough to use them when available and to move to face-to-face interviews when not appropriate.

Keywords: telepsychology, COVID-19, Corona, psychologist

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Authors: Fuad Hamsyah

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Since last two decades, major disasters have happened in the Philippines and Indonesia as two countries that are located in the pacific ring of fire territory. While in Southeast Asian countries, the process of psychosocial support provision is facing various constraints such as limited number of mental health professionals and the limited knowledge about the provision of psychosocial support for disaster survivors. Yet after the tsunami disaster in 2004, many Asian countries begin to develop policies about the provision of psychosocial interventions as an effort for future disasters preparedness. In addition, mental health professionals have to consider the local cultural values and beliefs in order to provide people with effective psychosocial support since cultural values and beliefs play a significant role in the diversity of psychological distress that forms symptoms formation, and people’s way to seek for psychological assistance. This study is a critical literature review on 130 relevant selected documents and literatures. IASC MHPSS guideline is used as the research framework in doing critical analysis. The purpose of this study is to conduct a critical analysis on the mental health and psychosocial support provision in the Philippines and Indonesia with three main objectives: 1) To describe strengths, weaknesses, and challenges in the process of psychosocial supports given by public and private organizations in emergency settings of disaster in the Philippines and Indonesia, 2) To compare psychosocial support practices between the Philippines and Indonesia, and to identify the good practices among these countries, 3) To learn how cultural values influence the implementation of psychosocial supports in emergency settings of disaster. This research indicated that almost every function from IASC MHPSS guidelines has been implemented effectively in the Philippines and Indonesia, yet not in every detail of IASC MHPSS guidelines. Several similarities and differences are indicated in this study also based on the IASC MHPSS guidelines as the analysis framework. Further, both countries have some good practices that can be useful as an example of a comprehensive psychosocial support implementation. Apart from the IASC MHPSS guideline, cultural values and beliefs in the Philippines such as kanya-kanya syndrome, pakikipakapwa, utang na loob, bahala na, pagkaya are indicated as several cultural values that have strong influences towards people’s attitude and behavior in disaster situations. While in Indonesia, several cultural values such as sabar and nrimo become two important attitudes to cope disaster situations.

Keywords: disaster, Indonesia, psychosocial support, Philippines

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Authors: Baglan Bazylova

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The purpose of our article is to consider the social and psychological conflicts in Lyudmila Petrushevskaya’s stories as an artistic presentation of gender structure of modern society; to reveal originality of the characters’ inner world, the models of their behavior expressing the gender specific nature of modern feminine prose. Gender conflicts have taken the leading place in the modern prose. L. Petrushevskaya represents different types of conflicts including those which are shown in the images of real contradictions in the stories "Narratrix", "Thanks to Life”, "Virgin's Case", "Father and Mother". In the prose of Petrushevskaya the gender conflicts come out in two dimensions: The first one is love relations between a man and a woman. Because of the financial indigence, neediness a woman can’t afford herself even to fall in love and arrange her family happiness. The second dimension is the family conflict because of the male adultery. Petrushevskaya fixed on the unmanifistated conflict in detail. In the real life such gender conflict can appear in different forms but for the writer is important to show it as a life basis, hidden behind the externally safe facade of “the family happiness”. In the stories of L. Petrushevskaya the conflicts reflect the common character of the social and historical situations in which her heroines find themselves, in situations where a woman feels her opposition to the customary mode of life. The types of gender conflicts of these stories differ in character of verbal images. They are presented by the verbal and event ranks creating the conflicts just in operation.

Keywords: gender behavior of heroes, gender conflict, gender picture of the world, gender structure

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Authors: Naiara Ozamiz Etcebarria, Sonia Ruiz De Azua Garcia, Agurtzane Ortiz Jauregi, Virginia Guillen Cañas

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Introduction: The most relevant competencies of a health professional are an adequate communication capacity, which will influence the satisfaction of professionals and patients, therapeutic compliance, conflict prevention, clinical outcomes´ improvement and efficiency of health services. The ability of Active listening , empathy, assertiveness and social skills, are important abilities to develop in all professions in which there is a relationship with other people. In the field of health, it is even more important to have adequate qualities so that the treatment with the patient will be adequate and satisfactory. We conducted a research with students of third year in the Degree of Medicine with the objectives: - to know how the active listening, empathy, assertiveness and social skills of students are. - to know if there are differences according to different demographic variables, such as sex, language, age, number of siblings and interest in the subject. Material and Methods: The students of the Third year in the Degree of Medicine (N = 212) participated voluntarily. Sociodemographic data were collected. Descriptive and comparative analysis of the averages of the students with respect to active listening, empathy, assertiveness and social skills were performed. Once the questionnaires were collected, they were entered into the SPSS 21 database. Four communicational aspects were evaluated: The active listening questionnaire, the TECA empathy questionnaire, the ACDA questionnaire and the EHS questionnaire Social Skills Scale. The active listening questionnaire assesses these factors: Listening without interruption and less contradiction, Listening with 100% attention, Listening beyond words, Listening encouraging the other to go deeper. The TECA questionnaire of cognitive and affective empathy evaluates: Adoption of perspectives, Emotional Comprehension, Emphasizing stress, Empathic joy. The EHS questionnaire Social Skills Scale: Self-expression in social situations, Defending one's own rights as a consumer, Expressing anger or dissatisfaction, Refusing to do and cutting interactions off, Making requests, Initiating positive interactions with the other sex. The ACDA questionnaire Assertiveness Assessment Scale evaluates self-assertiveness and heteroaservitivity. Applicability: To train these skills is so important for clinical practice of medical students and these capabilities that can be measured in a longitudinal way time. Ethical-legal aspects: The data were anonymous. The study was approved by the Ethics Committee. Results: The students of the Third year in the Degree of Medicine (34.4% Basque speakers and 65.6% Spanish speakers) with average age 20.93, (27.8% men and 72.2% women). There are no differences in social skills between men and women. The Basque speaker students of are more heteroactive (ACDA) than Spanish students. Active listening has a high correlation with social skills, especially with self-expression in social situations. Listening without interruption has a high correlation with self-expression in social situations and initiating positive interactions with the opposite sex. Adoption of perspectives presents a high correlation with auto- assertiveness. Emotional understanding presents a high correlation with positive interactions with the opposite sex. Empathic joy correlates with self-assertiveness, self-expression in social situations, and initiating positive interactions with the opposite sex.

Keywords: active listening, assertiveness, communicational skills, empathy, students of medicine

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Authors: Pedro F. D. Oliveira, Rangel S. Maia, Aline S. Paula

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As the electric energy consumption grows, the necessity of energy transmission lines increases. One of the problems caused by an oscillatory response to dynamical loads (such as wind effects) in transmission lines is the cable fatigue. Thus, the dynamical behavior of transmission cables understanding and its control is extremely important. The socioeconomic damage caused by a failure in these cables can be quite significant, from large economic losses to energy supply interruption in large regions. Dynamic Vibration Absorbers (DVA) are oscillatory elements used to mitigate the vibration of a primary system subjected to harmonic excitation. The positioning of Stockbridge (DVA for overhead transmission lines) plays an important role in mitigating oscillations of transmission lines caused by airflows. Nowadays, the positioning is defined by technical standards or commercial software. The aim of this paper is to conduct an analysis of multiple DVAs performances in cable conductors of overhead transmission lines. The cable is analyzed by a finite element method and the model is calibrated by experimental results. DVAs performance is analyzed by evaluating total cable energy, and a study of multiple DVAs positioning is conducted. The results are compared to the existing regulations showing situations where proper positioning, different from the standard, can lead to better performance of the DVA. Results also show situations where the use of multiple DVAs is appropriate.

Keywords: dynamical vibration absorber, finite element method, overhead transmission lines, structural dynamics

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Authors: Maria Angela Bedini, Fabio Bronzini

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Most of the Italian territory is at seismic risk. Many earthquakes have hit Italy, and devastating effects have been generated. The specific objective of the research is to distinguish the negative approaches that have generated unacceptable social situations of marginalization, abandonment, and economic regression, from positive methodological approaches. On the basis of the different situations examined, the study proposes strategies and guidelines to obtain the best possible results, in Italy or abroad, in the event of new earthquakes. At national and international level, many theoretical studies address the aspects of prevention, while the comparisons, carried out in this study, between the techniques and the operative procedures applied and the results obtained are rare. The adopted methodology compares the different pre-earthquake urban-planning approaches, for the emergency (temporary urban planning), and for the post-earthquake (socio-economic-territorial processes) in Italy. Attention is placed on the current consolidated planning and programming acquisitions, pre and post-earthquake. The main results of the study concern the prospects in Italy of protection from seismic risks in the next decades. An integrated settlement system for a new economic and social model, aimed at the rebirth of territories in crisis, is proposed. Finally, the conclusions describe the disciplinary positions, procedures and the fundamental points generally shared by the scientific community for each approach, in order to identify the strategic choices and the disciplinary and management paths that will be followed in the coming decades.

Keywords: post-earthquake, seismic emergency, seismic prevention, urban planning interventions in Italy

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Authors: Xiyang Li, Qi Yu, Lun Zhang

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In the face of natural disasters and other emergency situations, determining the optimal location of rescue centers is crucial for improving rescue efficiency and minimizing impact on affected populations. This paper proposes a method that integrates genetic algorithms (GA) and backpropagation neural networks (BPNN) to address the site selection optimization problem for emergency rescue centers. We utilize BPNN to accurately estimate the cost of delivering supplies from rescue centers to each temporary camp. Moreover, a genetic algorithm with a special partially matched crossover (PMX) strategy is employed to ensure that the number of temporary camps assigned to each rescue center adheres to predetermined limits. Using the population distribution data during the 2022 epidemic in Jiading District, Shanghai, as an experimental case, this paper verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method. The experimental results demonstrate that the BPNN-GA method proposed in this study outperforms existing algorithms in terms of computational efficiency and optimization performance. Especially considering the requirements for computational resources and response time in emergency situations, the proposed method shows its ability to achieve rapid convergence and optimal performance in the early and mid-stages. Future research could explore incorporating more real-world conditions and variables into the model to further improve its accuracy and applicability.

Keywords: emergency rescue centers, genetic algorithms, back-propagation neural networks, site selection optimization

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Authors: Noran Adel Emara, Elham Ghazi Mohammad

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Qatar University is engaged in a systemic education reform that includes integrating the latest and most effective technologies for teaching and learning. ICube is high-immersive virtual reality technology is used to teach educational scenarios that are difficult to teach in real situations. The trends toward delivering science education via virtual reality applications have accelerated in recent years. However, research on students perceptions of integrating virtual reality especially ICube technology is somehow limited. Students often have difficulties focusing attention on learning science topics that require imagination and easily lose attention and interest during the lesson. The aim of this study was to examine students’ perception of integrating ICube technology in the solar system lesson. Moreover, to explore how ICube could engage students in learning scientific concept of the solar system. The research framework included the following quantitative research design with data collection and analysis from questionnaire results. The solar system lesson was conducted by teacher candidates (Diploma students) who taught in the ICube virtual lab in Qatar University. A group of 30 students from eighth grade were randomly selected to participate in the study. Results showed that the students were extremely engaged in learning the solar system and responded positively to integrating ICube in teaching. Moreover, the students showed interest in learning more lessons through ICube as it provided them with valuable learning experience about complex situations.

Keywords: ICube, integrating technology, science education, virtual reality

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Authors: Andreas Aceranti, Simonetta Vernocchi, Elisabetta Aldrovandi, Marco Colorato, Carolina Ascrizzi

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Nowadays, especially due to an increasing flow of migration and uncontrolled globalisation, linguistic, cultural and religious differences can be a major obstacle for people belonging to different ethnic groups. Each group has its own traditional background, which, in addition to its positive aspects, also includes extremely unpleasant and dramatic situations: culture-related crimes. We analysed several cases belonging to this category of crime which is becoming more and more present in Europe, creating not only a strong social rift dictated by the misunderstanding between migrants and host populations but also by the isolation and ghettoisation of subjects classified as 'different'. Such social rejection, in fact, represents a great source of stress and frustration for those who seek to be part of the community and can generate phenomena of rebellion that result in violent acts. Similar situations must be addressed by the figure of the cultural-linguistic mediator who, thanks to his or her multidisciplinary knowledge, assumes the role of a 'bridge', thus helping the process of awareness and understanding within the social group through the use of various tools, including awareness-raising campaigns and interventions in both the school and social-health sectors. By analysing how the notions of culture and offense have evolved throughout history until they have merged into a single principle and, secondly, how the figure of the language mediator represents a fundamental role in the resolution of conflicts related to cultural diversity has helped us define the basis for new protocols in dealing with such crimes. Especially we have to define the directions of further investigations that we will carry out in the next months.

Keywords: cultural crimes, hatred crimes, immigration, cultural mediation

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Authors: Olivier Chaigneau, Damianos Oikonomidis, Marie-Cecile Delmas

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GAMBAS (Galileo Advanced features for the Maritime domain: Breakthrough Applications for Safety and security) is a project funded by the European Space Program Agency (EUSPA) aiming at identifying the search-and-rescue and ship security alert system needs for maritime users (including operators and fishing stakeholders) and developing operational concepts to answer these needs. The general objective of the GAMBAS project is to support the deployment of Galileo exclusive features in the maritime domain in order to improve safety and security at sea, detection of illegal activities and associated surveillance means, resilience to natural and human-induced emergency situations, and develop, integrate, demonstrate, standardize and disseminate these new associated capabilities. The project aims to demonstrate: improvement of the SAR (Search And Rescue) and SSAS (Ship Security Alert System) detection and response to maritime distress through the integration of new features into the beacon for SSAS in terms of cost optimization, user-friendly aspects, integration of Galileo and OS NMA (Open Service Navigation Message Authentication) reception for improved authenticated localization performance and reliability, and at sea triggering capabilities, optimization of the responsiveness of RCCs (Rescue Co-ordination Centre) towards the distress situations affecting vessels, the adaptation of the MCCs (Mission Control Center) and MEOLUT (Medium Earth Orbit Local User Terminal) to the data distribution of SSAS alerts.

Keywords: Galileo new advanced features, maritime, safety, security

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Authors: Csilla Marianna Szabó

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In Hungary, the society has changes a lot for the past 25 years, and these changes could be detected in educational situations as well. The number and the intensity of conflicts have been increased in most fields of life, as well as at schools. Teachers have difficulties to be able to handle school conflicts. What is more, the new net generation, generation Z has values and behavioural patterns different from those of the previous one, which might generate more serious conflicts at school, especially with teachers who were mainly socialising in a traditional teacher – student relationships. In Hungary, the bill CCIV, 2011 declared the foundation of Institutes of Teacher Training in higher education institutes. One of the tasks of the Institutes is to survey the competences and needs of teachers working in public education and to provide further trainings and services for them according to their needs and requirements. This job is supported by the Social Renewal Operative Programs 4.1.2.B. The Institute of Teacher Training at the College of Dunaújváros, Hungary carried out a questionnaire and surveyed the needs and the requirements of teachers working in the Central Transdanubian region. Based on the results, the professors of the Institute of Teacher Training decided to meet the requirements of teachers and launch short courses in spring 2015. One of the courses is going to focus on school conflict management through mediation. The aim of the pilot course is to provide conflict management techniques for teachers presenting different mediation techniques to them. The theoretical part of the course (5 hours) will enable participants to understand the main points and the advantages of mediation, while the practical part (10 hours) will involve teachers in role plays to learn how to cope with conflict situations applying mediation. We hope if conflicts could be reduced, it would influence school atmosphere in a positive way and the teaching – learning process could be more successful and effective.

Keywords: conflict resolution, generation Z, mediation, teacher training

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Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

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Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During the year 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two ANN-LSTM price prediction models, using Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022, and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper, depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-Month prediction model is better than the 1-Month prediction model, but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.

Keywords: copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting

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Authors: Meriem Bahij, Ahmed Nafidi, Boujemâa Achchab, Sílvio M. A. Gama, José A. O. Matos

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Stochastic modeling concerns the use of probability to model real-world situations in which uncertainty is present. Therefore, the purpose of stochastic modeling is to estimate the probability of outcomes within a forecast, i.e. to be able to predict what conditions or decisions might happen under different situations. In the present study, we present a model of a stochastic diffusion process based on the bi-Weibull distribution function (its trend is proportional to the bi-Weibull probability density function). In general, the Weibull distribution has the ability to assume the characteristics of many different types of distributions. This has made it very popular among engineers and quality practitioners, who have considered it the most commonly used distribution for studying problems such as modeling reliability data, accelerated life testing, and maintainability modeling and analysis. In this work, we start by obtaining the probabilistic characteristics of this model, as the explicit expression of the process, its trends, and its distribution by transforming the diffusion process in a Wiener process as shown in the Ricciaardi theorem. Then, we develop the statistical inference of this model using the maximum likelihood methodology. Finally, we analyse with simulated data the computational problems associated with the parameters, an issue of great importance in its application to real data with the use of the convergence analysis methods. Overall, the use of a stochastic model reflects only a pragmatic decision on the part of the modeler. According to the data that is available and the universe of models known to the modeler, this model represents the best currently available description of the phenomenon under consideration.

Keywords: diffusion process, discrete sampling, likelihood estimation method, simulation, stochastic diffusion process, trends functions, bi-parameters weibull density function

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Authors: G. M. Contessa, L. Lepore, G. Gandolfo, C. Poggi, N. Cherubini, R. Remetti, S. Sandri

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Practical guidelines are provided in this work for the safe use of a portable d-t Thermo Scientific MP-320 neutron generator producing pulsed 14.1 MeV neutron beams. The neutron generator’s emission was tested experimentally and reproduced by MCNPX Monte Carlo code. Simulations were particularly accurate, even generator’s internal components were reproduced on the basis of ad-hoc collected X-ray radiographic images. Measurement campaigns were conducted under different standard experimental conditions using an LB 6411 neutron detector properly calibrated at three different energies, and comparing simulated and experimental data. In order to estimate the dose to the operator vs. the operating conditions and the energy spectrum, the most appropriate value of the conversion factor between neutron fluence and ambient dose equivalent has been identified, taking into account both direct and scattered components. The results of the simulations show that, in real situations, when there is no information about the neutron spectrum at the point where the dose has to be evaluated, it is possible - and in any case conservative - to convert the measured value of the count rate by means of the conversion factor corresponding to 14 MeV energy. This outcome has a general value when using this type of generator, enabling a more accurate design of experimental activities in different setups. The increasingly widespread use of this type of device for industrial and medical applications makes the results of this work of interest in different situations, especially as a support for the definition of appropriate radiation protection procedures and, in general, for risk analysis.

Keywords: instrumentation and monitoring, management of radiological safety, measurement of individual dose, radiation protection of workers

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Authors: Jayant Balaji Athavale, Sean Clarke

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Background: According to the WHO, every year, more than 700,000 people die by suicide, which is one person around every 45 seconds. Suicide is the fourth leading cause of death among 15 to 29-year-olds globally. The most common situations or life events that might cause suicidal thoughts are financial problems/unemployment, rejections, relationship breakups, sexual/substance abuse and mental illnesses. Mental/psychological weakness caused due to defects in one’s personality is one of the main reasons why people feel they cannot cope in such situations and contemplate suicide. A WHO Mental Health Action Plan 2013–2020 lists a 4-point strategy to enhance mental health by ‘implementing strategies for promotion and prevention in mental health.’ Methodology: With 40 years of spiritual research background, the team at the Maharshi University of Spirituality has studied the spiritual root causes that can significantly affect one’s mental health and the solutions to improve it. Results/Findings: According to spiritual science, the time and nature of death are mostly due to spiritual reasons. A person would mostly contemplate and attempt suicide when he is spiritually most vulnerable. Spiritual practice, as per universal principles, helps in protecting a person spiritually and prevents him from getting such thoughts of self-harm or acting upon them by controlling such impulses. The University has had much success in helping people to overcome the defects in their personalities, including those with suicidal thoughts, through spiritual practices such as chanting the Name of God and the Personality Defect Removal (PDR) process developed by the Author. Conclusion: If such techniques were taught in educational institutions, they could be simple yet effective self-help tools to prevent thoughts of suicide and enhance mental health and well-being.

Keywords: suicide, mental health, abuse, suicide prevention, personality defect removal

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Authors: Shih-Chieh Liao, Jen-Ying Ma

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Dual protagonists game always bring a unique experience compared to the other games. This research wants to discuss whether the dual protagonists have the moving ability and special ability or not; it will affect the preference of the players. This research will focus on the single-player dual protagonists game. After the observation, we found that when players control the dual protagonists, the moving ability and special ability are a great point defining the preference of players. When players control the character, which is lack of moving ability, they often feel impatient with the inconvenient mechanism and then reduce the will to play with the character or even the game. Furthermore, the special ability is also important in the situation that there is another character to compare with. When the character is too powerful, players tend not to use the weaker one. In addition, gender is a big deal in the games. It surprisingly controls the will of play occasionally. In view of these, this research makes a single-player dual protagonists game and the dual protagonists are limited to male and female. The experiment content detected with Electrodermal Activity (EDA) includes seven different situations. (1) male and females both have the moving ability and special ability. (2) male and female both have a special ability, but female does not have the moving ability. (3) male and females both have a special ability, but the male does not have the moving ability. (4) male and female both have the moving ability, but the male does not have special ability (5) male and female both have the moving ability, but female does not have a special ability (6) male-only has the moving ability and female-only has a special ability (7) male-only has a special ability and female only has the moving ability. The experiment will evaluate the emotional changes of the subjects in those situations. The result sorted by the significance of player preference is (6)>(4)>(1)>(2)>(5)>(3)>(7). The result demonstrates that players prefer females with special abilities or males with moving abilities. The game developer could design the ability of dual protagonists based on this research. Therefore, players may have a better experience.

Keywords: biofeedback, dual protagonists, emotional responses, psychology, user experience

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Authors: Nicole Merkle, Stefan Zander

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Ambient Assisted Living (AAL) describes a technological and methodological stack of (e.g. formal model-theoretic semantics, rule-based reasoning and machine learning), different aspects regarding the behavior, activities and characteristics of humans. Hence, a semantic representation of the user environment and its relevant elements are required in order to allow assistive agents to recognize situations and deduce appropriate actions. Furthermore, the user and his/her characteristics (e.g. physical, cognitive, preferences) need to be represented with a high degree of expressiveness in order to allow software agents a precise evaluation of the users’ context models. The correct interpretation of these context models highly depends on temporal, spatial circumstances as well as individual user preferences. In most AAL approaches, model representations of real world situations represent the current state of a universe of discourse at a given point in time by neglecting transitions between a set of states. However, the AAL domain currently lacks sufficient approaches that contemplate on the dynamic adaptions of context-related representations. Semantic representations of relevant real-world excerpts (e.g. user activities) help cognitive, rule-based agents to reason and make decisions in order to help users in appropriate tasks and situations. Furthermore, rules and reasoning on semantic models are not sufficient for handling uncertainty and fuzzy situations. A certain situation can require different (re-)actions in order to achieve the best results with respect to the user and his/her needs. But what is the best result? To answer this question, we need to consider that every smart agent requires to achieve an objective, but this objective is mostly defined by domain experts who can also fail in their estimation of what is desired by the user and what not. Hence, a smart agent has to be able to learn from context history data and estimate or predict what is most likely in certain contexts. Furthermore, different agents with contrary objectives can cause collisions as their actions influence the user’s context and constituting conditions in unintended or uncontrolled ways. We present an approach for dynamically updating a semantic model with respect to the current user context that allows flexibility of the software agents and enhances their conformance in order to improve the user experience. The presented approach adapts rules by learning sensor evidence and user actions using probabilistic reasoning approaches, based on given expert knowledge. The semantic domain model consists basically of device-, service- and user profile representations. In this paper, we present how this semantic domain model can be used in order to compute the probability of matching rules and actions. We apply this probability estimation to compare the current domain model representation with the computed one in order to adapt the formal semantic representation. Our approach aims at minimizing the likelihood of unintended interferences in order to eliminate conflicts and unpredictable side-effects by updating pre-defined expert knowledge according to the most probable context representation. This enables agents to adapt to dynamic changes in the environment which enhances the provision of adequate assistance and affects positively the user satisfaction.

Keywords: ambient intelligence, machine learning, semantic web, software agents

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Authors: Agoston Restas

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Introduction: In case of managing disasters decision makers can face many times such a special situation where any pre-sign of the drastically change is missing therefore the improvised decision making can be required. The complexity, ambiguity, uncertainty or the volatility of the situation can require many times the improvisation as decision making. It can be taken at any level of the management (strategic, operational and tactical) but at tactical level the main reason of the improvisation is surely time pressure. It is certainly the biggest problem during the management. Methods: The author used different tools and methods to achieve his goals; one of them was the study of the relevant literature, the other one was his own experience as a firefighting manager. Other results come from two surveys that are referred to; one of them was an essay analysis, the second one was a word association test, specially created for the research. Results and discussion: This article proves that, in certain situations, the multi-criteria, evaluating decision-making processes simply cannot be used or only in a limited manner. However, it can be seen that managers, directors or commanders are many times in situations that simply cannot be ignored when making decisions which should be made in a short time. The functional background of decisions made in a short time, their mechanism, which is different from the conventional, was studied lately and this special decision procedure was given the name recognition-primed decision. In the article, author illustrates the limits of the possibilities of analytical decision-making, presents the general operating mechanism of recognition-primed decision-making, elaborates on its special model relevant to managers at tactical level, as well as explore and systemize the factors that facilitate (catalyze) the processes with an example with fire managers.

Keywords: decision making, disaster managers, recognition primed decision, model for making decisions in emergencies

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Authors: Hanan Yousef, Nisreen Naji Al-Khawaldeh

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The present study investigates the use of the expression of refusal by native speakers of Jordanian Arabic (NSsJA) in different social situations (i.e. invitations, suggestions, and offers). It also investigates the influence of gender on the refusal realization patterns within the Jordanian culture to provide a better insight into the relation between situations, strategies and gender in the Jordanian culture. To that end, a group of 70 participants, including 35 male and 35 female students from different departments at the Hashemite University (HU) participated in this study using mixed methods (i.e. Discourse Completion Test (DCT), interviews and naturally occurring data). Data were analyzed in light of a developed coding scheme. The results showed that NSsJA preferred indirect strategies which mitigate the interaction such as "excuse, reason and, explanation" strategy more than other strategies which aggravate the interaction such as "face-threatening" strategy. Moreover, the analysis of this study has revealed a considerable impact of gender on the use of linguistic forms expressing refusal among NSsJA. Significant differences in the results of the Chi-square test relating the effect of participants' gender indicate that both males and females were conscious of the gender of their interlocutors. The findings provide worthwhile insights into the relation amongst types of communicative acts and the rapport between people in social interaction. They assert that refusal should not be labeled as face threatening act since it does not always pose a threat in some cases especially where refusal is expressed among friends, relatives and family members. They highlight some distinctive culture-specific features of the communicative acts of refusal.

Keywords: gender, Jordanian Arabic, politeness, refusals, speech act

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Authors: I. Szer, J. Szer, K. Czarnocki, E. Błazik-Borowa

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People on construction scaffoldings work in dynamically changing, often unfavourable climate. Additionally, this kind of work is performed on low stiffness structures at high altitude, which increases the risk of accidents. It is therefore desirable to define the parameters of the work environment that contribute to increasing the construction worker occupational safety level. The aim of this article is to present how changes in microclimate parameters on scaffolding can impact the development of dangerous situations and accidents. For this purpose, indicators based on the human thermal balance were used. However, use of this model under construction conditions is often burdened by significant errors or even impossible to implement due to the lack of precise data. Thus, in the target model, the modified parameter was used – apparent environmental temperature. Apparent temperature in the proposed Scaffold Use Risk Assessment Model has been a perceived outdoor temperature, caused by the combined effects of air temperature, radiative temperature, relative humidity and wind speed (wind chill index, heat index). In the paper, correlations between component factors and apparent temperature for facade scaffolding with a width of 24.5 m and a height of 42.3 m, located at south-west side of building are presented. The distribution of factors on the scaffolding has been used to evaluate fitting of the microclimate model. The results of the studies indicate that observed ranges of apparent temperature on the scaffolds frequently results in a worker’s inability to adapt. This leads to reduced concentration and increased fatigue, adversely affects health, and consequently increases the risk of dangerous situations and accidental injuries

Keywords: apparent temperature, health, safety work, scaffoldings

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Authors: Jiří F. Urbánek, Alena Oulehlová, Hana Malachová, Jiří J. Urbánek Jr.

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Crisis situations investigation and modelling are introduced and made within the complex system of energetic critical infrastructure, operating on peril´s environments. Every crisis situations and perils has an origin in the emergency/ crisis event occurrence and they need critical/ crisis interfaces assessment. Here, the emergency events can be expected - then crisis scenarios can be pre-prepared by pertinent organizational crisis management authorities towards their coping; or it may be unexpected - without pre-prepared scenario of event. But the both need operational coping by means of crisis management as well. The operation, forms, characteristics, behaviour and utilization of crisis management have various qualities, depending on real critical infrastructure organization perils, and prevention training processes. An aim is always - better security and continuity of the organization, which successful obtainment needs to find and investigate critical/ crisis zones and functions in critical infrastructure organization models, operating in pertinent perils environment. Our DYVELOP (Dynamic Vector Logistics of Processes) method is disposables for it. Here, it is necessary to derive and create identification algorithm of critical/ crisis interfaces. The locations of critical/ crisis interfaces are the flags of crisis situation in organization of critical infrastructure models. Then, the model of crisis situation will be displayed at real organization of Czech energetic crisis infrastructure subject in real peril environment. These efficient measures are necessary for the infrastructure protection. They will be derived for peril mitigation, crisis situation coping and for environmentally friendly organization survival, continuity and its sustainable development advanced possibilities.

Keywords: algorithms, energetic infrastructure complex system, modelling, peril´s environment

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Authors: Lei Zhang, Jean-Michel Ghidaglia, Anela Kumbaro

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This work focuses on numerical simulation of two-phase flows based on the bi-fluid six-equation model widely used in many industrial areas, such as nuclear power plant safety analysis. A pressure-based numerical method is adopted in our studies due to the fact that in two-phase flows, it is common to have a large range of Mach numbers because of the mixture of liquid and gas, and density-based solvers experience stiffness problems as well as a loss of accuracy when approaching the low Mach number limit. This work extends the semi-implicit pressure solver in the nuclear component CUPID code, where the governing equations are solved on unstructured grids with co-located variables to accommodate complicated geometries. A conservative version of the solver is developed in order to capture exactly the shock in one-phase flows, and is extended to two-phase situations. An inter-facial pressure term is added to the bi-fluid model to make the system hyperbolic and to establish a well-posed mathematical problem that will allow us to obtain convergent solutions with refined meshes. The ability of the numerical method to treat phase appearance and disappearance as well as the behavior of the scheme at low Mach numbers will be demonstrated through several numerical results. Finally, inter-facial mass and heat transfer models are included to deal with situations when mass and energy transfer between phases is important, and associated industrial numerical benchmarks with tabulated EOS (equations of state) for fluids are performed.

Keywords: two-phase flows, numerical simulation, bi-fluid model, unstructured grids, phase appearance and disappearance

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Authors: Mimi My Tse

Abstract:

The prevalence of chronic non-cancer pain is high among community-dwelling older adults. Pain affects physical and psychosocial abilities. Older adults tend to be less mobile and have a high tendency to fall risk. In addition, older adults with pain are depressed, anxious, and not too willing to join social activities. This will make them feel very lonely and social isolation. Instead of giving pain management education and programs to older adults/clients, both older adults and their caregivers, it is sad to find that the majority of existing services are given to older adults only. Given the importance of family members in increasing compliance with health-promoting programs, we proposed to offer pain management programs to both older adults with his/her caregiver as a “dyad.” We used the Health Promotion Model and implemented a dyadic pain management program (DPM). The DPM is an 8-week group-based program. The DPM comprises 4 weeks of center-based, face-to-face activities and 4 weeks of digital-based activities delivered via a WhatsApp group. There were 30 dyads (15 in the experimental group with DPM and 15 in the control group with pain education pamphlets). Upon the completion of DPM, pain intensity and pain interference were significantly lower in the intervention group as compared to the control group. At the same time, physical function showed significant improvement and lower depression scores in the intervention group. In conclusion, the study highlights the potential benefits of involving caregivers in the management of chronic pain for older adults. This approach should be widely promoted in managing chronic pain situations for community-dwelling older adults and their caregivers.

Keywords: pain, older adults, dyadic approach, education

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Authors: S. MacDougall-Davis, S. Wysling, R. Willmore

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Background: The application of good non-technical skills, also known as crew resource management (CRM), is central to the delivery of safe, effective healthcare. The authors have been running remote trauma courses for over 10 years, primarily focussing on developing participants’ CRM in time-critical, high-stress clinical situations. The course has undergone an iterative process over the past 10 years. We employ a number of experiential learning techniques for improving CRM, including small group workshops, military command tasks, high fidelity simulations with reflective debriefs, and a ‘flipped classroom’, where participants are asked to create their own simulations and assess and debrief their colleagues’ CRM. We created a randomised simulation study to assess the impact of our course on UK medical students’ CRM, both at an individual and a teams level. Methods: Sixteen students took part. Four clinical scenarios were devised, designed to be of similar urgency and complexity. Professional moulage effects and experienced clinical actors were used to increase fidelity and to further simulate high-stress environments. Participants were block randomised into teams of 4; each team was randomly assigned to one pre-course simulation. They then underwent our 5 day remote trauma CRM course. Post-course, students were re-randomised into four new teams; each was randomly assigned to a post-course simulation. All simulations were videoed. The footage was reviewed by two independent CRM-trained assessors, who were blinded to the before/after the status of the simulations. Assessors used the internationally validated team emergency assessment measure (TEAM) to evaluate key areas of team performance, as well as a global outcome rating. Prior to the study, assessors had scored two unrelated scenarios using the same assessment tool, demonstrating 89% concordance. Participants also completed pre- and post-course questionnaires. Likert scales were used to rate individuals’ perceived NTS ability and their confidence to work in a team in time-critical, high-stress situations. Results: Following participation in the course, a significant improvement in CRM was observed in all areas of team performance. Furthermore, the global outcome rating for team performance was markedly improved (40-70%; mean 55%), thus demonstrating an impact at Level 4 of Kirkpatrick’s hierarchy. At an individual level, participants’ self-perceived CRM improved markedly after the course (35-70% absolute improvement; mean 55%), as did their confidence to work in a team in high-stress situations. Conclusion: Our study demonstrates that with a short, cost-effective course, using easily reproducible teaching sessions, it is possible to significantly improve participants’ CRM skills, both at an individual and, perhaps more importantly, at a teams level. The successful functioning of multi-disciplinary teams is vital in a healthcare setting, particularly in high-stress, time-critical situations. Good CRM is of paramount importance in these scenarios. The authors believe that these concepts should be introduced from the earliest stages of medical education, thus promoting a culture of effective CRM and embedding an early appreciation of the importance of these skills in enabling safe and effective healthcare.

Keywords: crew resource management, non-technical skills, training, simulation

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Authors: Cecile Garry, Katia Rovira, Julie Brisson

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Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is defined by a qualitative and quantitative impairment of social interaction. Indeed early intervention programs, such as the Early Start Denver Model (ESDM), aimed at encouraging the development of social skills. In classroom, the children need to be socially engaged to learn. Early intervention programs can thus be implemented in kindergarten schools. In these schools, ASD children have more opportunities to interact with their peers or adults than in elementary schools. However, the preschool children with ASD are less socially engaged than their typically developing peers in the classroom. They initiate, respond and maintain less the social interactions. In addition, they produce more responses than initiations. When they interact, the non verbal communication is more used than verbal or symbolic communication forms and they are more engaged with adults than with peers. Nevertheless, communicative patterns may vary according to the clinical profiles of ASD children. Indeed, the ASD children with better cognitive skills interact more with their peers and use more symbolic communication than the ASD children with a low cognitive level. ASD children with the less severe symptoms use more the verbal communication than ASD children with the more severe symptoms. Small groups and structured activities encourage coordinated joint engagement episodes in ASD children. Our goal is to evaluate ASD children’s social engagement development in class, with their peers or adults, during dyadic or group activities. Participants were 19 preschool children with ASD aged from 3 to 6 years old that benefited of an early intervention in special kindergarten schools. Severity of ASD symptoms was measured with the CARS at the beginning of the follow-up. Classroom situations of interaction were recorded during 10 minutes (5 minutes of dyadic interaction and 5 minutes of a group activity), every 2 months, during 10 months. Social engagement behaviors of children, including initiations, responses and imitation, directed to a peer or an adult, were then coded. The Observer software (Noldus) that allows to annotate behaviors was the coding system used. A double coding was conducted and revealed a good inter judges fidelity. Results show that ASD children were more often and longer socially engaged in dyadic than in groups situations. They were also more engaged with adults than with peers. Children with the less severe symptoms of ASD were more socially engaged in groups situations than children with the more severe symptoms of ASD. Then, ASD children with the less severe symptoms of ASD were more engaged with their peers than ASD children with the more severe symptoms of ASD. However, the engagement frequency increased during the 10 month of follow-up but only for ASD children with the more severe symptoms at the beginning. To conclude, these results highlighted the necessity of individualizing early intervention programs according to the clinical profile of the child.

Keywords: autism spectrum disorder, preschool children, developmental psychology, early interventions, social interactions

Procedia PDF Downloads 159