Search results for: subjective probability

Authors: Andrew Enaifoghe

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Women's roles in the past and modern society were typically subordinate to men. This form of discrimination against women prevented them from taking on leadership roles as they were considered male roles. However, some theories, like social thought, suggest that human minds form a map during socialization, where each category of things/objects is represented in schemata or nodes. These representations or nodules are interrelated, subject to their probability of developing together and formed based on previous experiences. The consequences of gender roles and the threat of stereotyping in the workplace have been debated by the researcher. The study also looks at the effects of stereotypes beyond test performance and the submission of socio-cultural briefs low-cost interventions in the working environment through organizational and intercultural communication. This study adopted a qualitative research method with a systematic document analysis, which allows researchers to study by consulting and making sense of written materials available in the public or private domain. The study employed the Social Identity Theory (SIT) and Organizational Control Theory to conceptualize this paper. The study discovered that when women use an interpersonally oriented leadership style in male-dominated industries, they have been found to suffer from high levels of mental ill-health and continue to endure significant amounts of pressure from their professions.

Keywords: gender roles, stereotyping, organizational, intercultural communication

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Authors: Nihat Dipova, Bulent Cangir

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This article presents the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Antalya (SW Turkey). South west of Turkey is characterized by large earthquakes resulting from the continental collision between the African, Arabian and Eurasian plates and crustal faults. Earthquakes around the study area are grouped into two; crustal earthquakes (D=0-50 km) and subduction zone earthquakes (50-140 km). Maximum observed magnitude of subduction earthquakes is Mw=6.0. Maximum magnitude of crustal earthquakes is Mw=6.6. Sources for crustal earthquakes are faults which are related with Isparta Angle and Cyprus Arc tectonic structures. A new earthquake catalogue for Antalya, with unified moment magnitude scale has been prepared and seismicity of the area around Antalya city has been evaluated by defining ‘a’ and ‘b’ parameters of the Gutenberg-Richter recurrence relationship. The Standard Cornell-McGuire method has been used for hazard computation utilizing CRISIS2007 software. Attenuation relationships proposed by Chiou and Youngs (2008) has been used for 0-50 km earthquakes and Youngs et. al (1997) for deep subduction earthquakes. Finally, Seismic hazard map for peak horizontal acceleration on a uniform site condition of firm rock (average shear wave velocity of about 1130 m/s) at a hazard level of 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years has been prepared.

Keywords: Antalya, peak ground acceleration, seismic hazard assessment, subduction

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Authors: Enemeri George Uweiyohowo

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Improved achievement with respect to output control of photovoltaic (PV) systems is one of the major focus of PV in recent times. This is evident to its low carbon emission and efficiency. Power failure or outage from commercial providers, in general, does not promote development to public and private sector, these basically limit the development of industries. The need for a well-structured PV system is of importance for an efficient and cost-effective monitoring system. The purpose of this paper is to validate the maximum power point of an off-grid PV system taking into consideration the most effective tilt and orientation angles for PV's in the southern hemisphere. This paper is based on analyzing the system using a solar charger with MPPT from a pulse width modulation (PWM) perspective. The power conditioning device chosen is a solar charger with MPPT. The practical setup consists of a PV panel that is set to an orientation angle of 0∘N, with a corresponding tilt angle of 36∘, 26∘ and 16∘. Preliminary results include regression analysis (normal probability plot) showing the maximum power point in the system as well the best tilt angle for maximum power point tracking.

Keywords: poly-crystalline PV panels, information technology (IT), maximum power point tracking (MPPT), pulse width modulation (PWM)

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Authors: N. R. N. Idris, S. Baharom

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A meta-analysis may be performed using aggregate data (AD) or an individual patient data (IPD). In practice, studies may be available at both IPD and AD level. In this situation, both the IPD and AD should be utilised in order to maximize the available information. Statistical advantages of combining the studies from different level have not been fully explored. This study aims to quantify the statistical benefits of including available IPD when conducting a conventional summary-level meta-analysis. Simulated meta-analysis were used to assess the influence of the levels of data on overall meta-analysis estimates based on IPD-only, AD-only and the combination of IPD and AD (mixed data, MD), under different study scenario. The percentage relative bias (PRB), root mean-square-error (RMSE) and coverage probability were used to assess the efficiency of the overall estimates. The results demonstrate that available IPD should always be included in a conventional meta-analysis using summary level data as they would significantly increased the accuracy of the estimates. On the other hand, if more than 80% of the available data are at IPD level, including the AD does not provide significant differences in terms of accuracy of the estimates. Additionally, combining the IPD and AD has moderating effects on the biasness of the estimates of the treatment effects as the IPD tends to overestimate the treatment effects, while the AD has the tendency to produce underestimated effect estimates. These results may provide some guide in deciding if significant benefit is gained by pooling the two levels of data when conducting meta-analysis.

Keywords: aggregate data, combined-level data, individual patient data, meta-analysis

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Authors: Gulsah Olgun, Ozgur Bozdag, Yildirim Ertutar

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This paper mainly focuses on performance assessment of buildings by associating the damage level with the damage cost. For this purpose a methodology is explained and applied to the representative mid-rise concrete building residing in Izmir. In order to consider uncertainties in occurrence of earthquakes, the structural analyses are conducted for all possible earthquakes in the region through the hazard curve. By means of the analyses, probability of the structural response being in different limit states are obtained and used to calculate expected damage cost. The expected damage cost comprises diverse cost components related to earthquake such as cost of casualties, replacement or repair cost of building etc. In this study, inter-story drift is used as an effective response variable to associate expected damage cost with different damage levels. The structural analysis methods performed to obtain inter story drifts are response spectrum method as a linear one, accurate push-over and time history methods to demonstrate the nonlinear effects on loss estimation. Comparison of the results indicates that each method provides similar values of expected damage cost. To sum up, this paper explains an approach which enables to minimize the expected damage cost of buildings and relate performance level to damage cost.

Keywords: expected damage cost, limit states, loss estimation, performance based design

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Authors: Muhammad Jawad Hashmi

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The idea of nuclear terrorism is as old as nuclear weapons but the global concerns of likelihood of nuclear terrorism are uncertain. Post 9/11 trends manifest that terrorists are believers of massive causalities. Innovation in terrorist’s tactics, sophisticated weaponry, vulnerability, theft and smuggling of nuclear/radiological material, connections between terrorists, black market and rough regimes are signaling seriousness of upcoming challenges as well as global trends of “terror-transnationalism.” Furthermore, the International-Atomic-Energy-Agency’s database recorded 2734 incidents regarding misuse, unauthorized possession, trafficking of nuclear material etc. Since, this data also includes incidents from south Asia, so, there is every possibility to claim that such illicit activities may increase in future, mainly due to expansion of nuclear industry in South Asia. Moreover, due to such mishaps the region is vulnerable to threats of nuclear terrorism. This is also a reason that the region is in limelight along with issues such as rapidly growing nuclear arsenals, nuclear safety and security, terrorism and political instability. With this backdrop, this study is aimed to investigate the prevailing threats and challenges in South Asia vis a vis nuclear safety and security. A comparative analysis of the overall capabilities would be done to identify the areas of cooperation to eliminate the probability of nuclear/radiological terrorism in the region.

Keywords: nuclear terrorism, safety, security, South Asia, india, Pakistan

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Authors: Mohamed Al-Hilal

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The main purpose of the present study is to assess the role of active tectonics in influencing the emanation level of soil radon across two tectonically active structures of the Northern Dead Sea Fault (NDSF) in northwestern Syria: namely, the Qastoon and Al-Harif fault segments. The radon measurements were basically directed by the results drawn from earlier studies of archaeoseismic and paleoseismic investigation in Al-Harif, besides integrated geophysical and morphotectonic survey at the Qastoon site. In view of that, a total of 80 soil gas radon points were measured in this work with a sampling depth of 75 cm, using the AlphaGUARD PQ 2000Pro radon detector. The background range of normal radon emission from local soil was determined in area located away from the influence of the tectonic disturbances. The obtained radon data were statistically analyzed, and the mean values have been standardized in terms of probability of magnitude, which enhances the comparison process and so facilitating the separation of normal radon variations from other anomalous or geotectonic related values. The overall results revealed remarkable occurrences of fault-associated radon anomalies with maximum peak values of ~6 to 7 times above the background, trending in accordance with the predicted traces of the fault ruptures at the Qastoon and Al-Harif, respectively.

Keywords: soil gas radon, active tectonic structure, northern dead sea fault, western Syria

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Authors: Jayanta Pokharel, Gokarna Aryal, Netra Kanaal, Chris Tsokos

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Investment in stocks and shares aims to seek potential gains while weighing the risk of future needs, such as retirement, children's education etc. Analysis of the behavior of the stock market returns and making prediction is important for investors to mitigate risk on investment. Historically, the normal variance models have been used to describe the behavior of stock market returns. However, the returns of the financial assets are actually skewed with higher kurtosis, heavier tails, and a higher center than the normal distribution. The Laplace distribution and its family are natural candidates for modeling stock returns. The Variance-Gamma (VG) distribution is the most sought-after distributions for modeling asset returns and has been extensively discussed in financial literatures. In this paper, it explore the other Laplace family, such as Asymmetric Laplace, Skewed Laplace, Kumaraswamy Laplace (KS) together with Variance-Gamma to model the weekly returns of the S&P 500 Index and it's eleven business sector indices. The method of maximum likelihood is employed to estimate the parameters of the distributions and our empirical inquiry shows that the Kumaraswamy Laplace distribution performs much better for stock returns modeling among the choice of distributions used in this study and in practice, KS can be used as a strong alternative to VG distribution.

Keywords: stock returns, variance-gamma, kumaraswamy laplace, maximum likelihood

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Authors: Shan Li, Qiuwen Ma

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Integrated project delivery (IPD) is a project delivery method distinguished by a shared risk/rewards mechanism and multiparty agreement. IPD has drawn increasing attention from construction industry due to its reliability to deliver high-performing buildings. However, unavailable IPD specific insurance concerns the industry participants who are interested in IPD implementation. Even though the risk management capability can be enhanced using shared risk mechanism, some risks may occur when the partners do not commit themselves into the integrated practices in a desired manner. This is because the intense collaboration and close integration can not only create added value but bring new opportunistic behaviors and disputes. The study is aimed to investigate the risks of implementing IPD using Bayesian theory. IPD risk taxonomy is presented to identify all potential risks of implementing IPD and a risk network map is developed to capture the interdependencies between IPD risks. The conditional relations between risk occurrences and the impacts of IPD risks on project performances are evaluated and simulated based on Bayesian theory. The probability of project outcomes is predicted by simulation. In addition, it is found that some risks caused by integration are most possible occurred risks. This study can help the IPD project participants identify critical risks of adopting IPD to improve project performances. In addition, it is helpful to develop IPD specific insurance when the pertinent risks can be identified.

Keywords: Bayesian theory, integrated project delivery, project risks, project performances

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Authors: Tejasvi Parupudi, Mochen Li, Lakshya Mittal, Ignacio G. Camarillo, Raji Sundararajan

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With breast cancer becoming a global pandemic, it is very important to assess a woman’s risk profile accurately in a timely manner. Providing an estimate of the risk of developing breast cancer to a woman gives her an opportunity to consider options to decrease this risk. Women at low risk may be suggested yearly screenings whereas women with a high risk of developing breast cancer would be candidates for aggressive surveillance. Fortunately, there is a set of risk factors that are used to predict the probability of a woman being diagnosed with breast cancer in the future. Studying risk factors and understanding how they correlate to cancer is important for early diagnosis, prevention and reducing mortality rates. The effect of crucial risk factors among black and white women was compared in this study. The various risk factors analyzed include breast density, age, cancer in a first-degree relative, menopausal status, body mass index (BMI) and prior breast cancer diagnosis, etc. Breast density, age at first full-term birth and BMI were utilized in this study as important risk factors for the comparison of incidence rates between women of black and white races in the USA. Understanding the differences could lead to the development of solutions to reduce disparity in mortality rates among black women by improving overall access to care.

Keywords: big data, breast cancer, risk factors, incidence rates, mortality, race

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Authors: Lubena Achmad, Herman Kristanto, Julian Dewantiningrum

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Background: The Bishop score is a standard method used to predict the success of induction. This examination tends to be subjective with high inter and intraobserver variability, so it was presumed to have a low predictive value in terms of the outcome of labor induction. Cervical length measurement using transvaginal ultrasound is considered to be more objective to assess the cervical length. Meanwhile, this examination is not a complicated procedure and less invasive than vaginal touché. Objective: To compare transvaginal ultrasound and Bishop score in predicting successful induction. Methods: This study was a prospective cohort study. One hundred and twenty women with singleton pregnancies undergoing induction of labor at 37 – 42 weeks and met inclusion and exclusion criteria were enrolled in this study. Cervical assessment by both transvaginal ultrasound and Bishop score were conducted prior induction. The success of labor induction was defined as an ability to achieve active phase ≤ 12 hours after induction. To figure out the best cut-off point of cervical length and Bishop score, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine which factors best-predicted induction success. Results: This study showed significant differences in terms of age, premature rupture of the membrane, the Bishop score, cervical length and funneling as significant predictors of successful induction. Using ROC curves found that the best cut-off point for prediction of successful induction was 25.45 mm for cervical length and 3 for Bishop score. Logistic regression was performed and showed only premature rupture of membranes and cervical length ≤ 25.45 that significantly predicted the success of labor induction. By excluding premature rupture of the membrane as the indication of induction, cervical length less than 25.3 mm was a better predictor of successful induction. Conclusion: Compared to Bishop score, cervical length using transvaginal ultrasound was a better predictor of successful induction.

Keywords: Bishop Score, cervical length, induction, successful induction, transvaginal sonography

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Authors: Chenyu Huang, Minrong Cui, Hua Fang, Luqing Zhang, Yunlong Yu

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The emergence and spread of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) have become a pressing issue in global agricultural production. However, understanding how these ARGs spread across different spatial scales, especially when exposed to both pesticides and antibiotics, has remained a challenge. Here, metagenomic assembly and binning methodologies were used to determine the mechanism of ARG propagation within soil-lettuce systems exposed to both fungicides and antibiotics. The results of our study showed that the presence of fungicide and antibiotic stresses had a significant impact on certain bacterial communities. Notably, we observed that ARGs were primarily transferred from the soil to the plant through plasmids. The selective pressure exerted by fungicides and antibiotics contributed to an increase in unique ARGs present on lettuce leaves. Moreover, ARGs located on chromosomes and plasmids followed different transmission patterns. The presence of diverse selective pressures, a result of compound treatments involving antibiotics and fungicides, amplifies this phenomenon. Consequently, there is a higher probability of bacteria developing multi-antibiotic resistance under the combined pressure of fungicides and antibiotics. In summary, our findings highlight that combined fungicide and antibiotic treatments are more likely to drive the acquisition of ARGs within the soil-plant system and may increase the risk of human ingestion.

Keywords: soil-lettuce system, fungicide, antibiotic, ARG, transmission

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Authors: Renato Morbidelli, Carla Saltalippi, Alessia Flammini, Tommaso Picciafuoco, Corrado Corradini

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A considerable part of rainfall data to be used in the hydrological practice is available in aggregated form within constant time intervals. This can produce undesirable effects, like the underestimate of the annual maximum rainfall depth, Hd, associated with a given duration, d, that is the basic quantity in the development of rainfall depth-duration-frequency relationships and in determining if climate change is producing effects on extreme event intensities and frequencies. The errors in the evaluation of Hd from data characterized by a coarse temporal aggregation, ta, and a procedure to reduce the non-homogeneity of the Hd series are here investigated. Our results indicate that: 1) in the worst conditions, for d=ta, the estimation of a single Hd value can be affected by an underestimation error up to 50%, while the average underestimation error for a series with at least 15-20 Hd values, is less than or equal to 16.7%; 2) the underestimation error values follow an exponential probability density function; 3) each very long time series of Hd contains many underestimated values; 4) relationships between the non-dimensional ratio ta/d and the average underestimate of Hd, derived from continuous rainfall data observed in many stations of Central Italy, may overcome this issue; 5) these equations should allow to improve the Hd estimates and the associated depth-duration-frequency curves at least in areas with similar climatic conditions.

Keywords: central Italy, extreme events, rainfall data, underestimation errors

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Authors: Vahab Behmanesh

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Metabolic syndrome is defined as having at least three of the five metabolic risk factors, including abdominal obesity, high blood pressure, high triglycerides, low HDL, and insulin resistance. Lifestyle changes towards reducing physical activity, unhealthy eating habits Especially the high-fat and high-carbohydrate diet is directly related to metabolic syndrome, and due to the epidemic of overweight and sedentary life, metabolic syndrome is a serious problem worldwide. On the other hand, vitamin D deficiency is considered as one of the most common problems in the world, which is related to the dysfunction of beta cells and insulin resistance, and therefore, vitamin D deficiency is considered as a factor in the occurrence of metabolic syndrome. 40 subjects (age: 16.12 ± 4.4 years and body mass index 25.61 ± 4.4 kg/m2) were randomly assigned to groups of aerobic exercise and placebo, aerobic exercise and vitamin D and placebo (no exercise) were divided. Vitamin D was taken at a dose of 50,000 units per week in a double-blind format for eight weeks, and the daily aerobic exercise program was performed for 50 to 60 minutes, three doses per week, with an intensity of 50-60% of the maximum heart rate. From one-way analysis of variance, Factorial variance analysis (2x2) repeated measurement and correlated t-test were used for data analysis. Aerobic exercise and vitamin D intake reduced all metabolic risk indicators and blood insulin (P < 0.05). However, the subjective feeling of hunger did not change significantly (P < 0.05). Regarding waist circumference and blood glucose, the effect of exercise combined with vitamin D consumption was greater than the corresponding effect in the vitamin D group (P < 0.05). Aerobic exercises and vitamin D intake are safe and effective for improving cardiometabolic health, Imam adds vitamin D to the exercise program has more benefits for weight and blood sugar control, which suggests prescribing it for patients with metabolic syndrome.

Keywords: vitamin D, aerobic exercise, metabolic control, adolescents

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Authors: Joshua Paul Steimel, Michael Pappas, Ethan Hall

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Particle-particle interactions are critical in determining the state of an active matter system. Unique and ubiquitous non-equilibrium behavior like swarming, vortexing, spiraling, and much more is governed by interactions between active units or particles. In hybrid active-passive matter systems, the attraction between spinning active units in a 2D monolayer of passive particles is controlled by the mechanical behavior of the passive monolayer. We demonstrate here that the range and dynamics of this attraction can be controlled by changing the composition of the passive monolayer by adding dopant passive particles. These dopant passive particles effectively pin the movement of dislocation motion in the passive media and reduce the probability of defect motion required to erode the bridge of passive particles between active spinners, thus reducing the range of attraction. Additionally, by adding an out of plane component to the magnetic moment and creating a top-like motion a short range repulsion emerges between the top-like particle. At inter-top distances less than four particle diameters apart, the tops repel but beyond that, distance attract up to 13 particle diameters apart. The tops were also able to locally and transiently anneal the passive monolayer. Thus we demonstrate that by tuning several parameters of the hybrid active matter system, one can observe very different emergent behavior.

Keywords: active matter, colloids, ferromagnetic, annealing

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Authors: Clarinda V. Nhangumbe, Ercília Sousa

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Weather Derivatives are financial instruments used to cover non-catastrophic weather events and can be expressed in the form of standard or plain vanilla products, structured or exotics products. The underlying asset, in this case, is the weather index, such as temperature, rainfall, humidity, wind, and snowfall. The complexity of the Weather Derivatives structure shows the weakness of the Black Scholes framework. Therefore, under the risk-neutral probability measure, the option price of a weather contract can be given as a unique solution of a two-dimensional partial differential equation (parabolic in one direction and hyperbolic in other directions), with an initial condition and subjected to adequate boundary conditions. To calculate the price of the option, one can use numerical methods such as the Monte Carlo simulations and implicit finite difference schemes conjugated with Semi-Lagrangian methods. This paper is proposed two explicit methods, namely, first-order upwind in the hyperbolic direction combined with Lax-Wendroff in the parabolic direction and first-order upwind in the hyperbolic direction combined with second-order upwind in the parabolic direction. One of the advantages of these methods is the fact that they take into consideration the boundary conditions obtained from the financial interpretation and deal efficiently with the different choices of the convection coefficients.

Keywords: incomplete markets, numerical methods, partial differential equations, stochastic process, weather derivatives

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Authors: Nina N. Serdar, Jelena R. Pejović

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This paper presents seismic risk assessment of two bridge structure, based on the probabilistic performance-based seismic assessment methodology. Both investigated bridges are tree span continuous RC curved bridges with the difference in column shapes. First bridge (type A) has a wall-type pier and second (type B) has a two-column bent with circular columns. Bridges are designed according to European standards: EN 1991-2, EN1992-1-1 and EN 1998-2. Aim of the performed analysis is to compare seismic behavior of these two structures and to detect the influence of column shapes on the seismic response. Seismic risk assessment is carried out by obtaining demand fragility curves. Non-linear model was constructed and time-history analysis was performed using thirty five pairs of horizontal ground motions selected to match site specific hazard. In performance based analysis, peak column drift ratio (CDR) was selected as engineering demand parameter (EDP). For seismic intensity measure (IM) spectral displacement was selected. Demand fragility curves that give probability of exceedance of certain value for chosen EDP were constructed and based on them conclusions were made.

Keywords: RC curved bridge, demand fragility curve, wall type column, nonlinear time-history analysis, circular column

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Authors: Raghunath Arnab

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The two-phase sampling which is also known as double sampling was introduced in 1938. In two-phase sampling, samples are selected in phases. In the first phase, a relatively large sample of size is selected by some suitable sampling design and only information on the auxiliary variable is collected. During the second phase, a sample of size is selected either from, the sample selected in the first phase or from the entire population by using a suitable sampling design and information regarding the study and auxiliary variable is collected. Evidently, two phase sampling is useful if the auxiliary information is relatively easy and cheaper to collect than the study variable as well as if the strength of the relationship between the variables and is high. If the sample is selected in more than two phases, the resulting sampling design is called a multi-phase sampling. In this article we will consider how one can use data collected at the first phase sampling at the stages of estimation of the parameter, stratification, selection of sample and their combinations in the second phase in a unified setup applicable to any sampling design and wider classes of estimators. The problem of the estimation of variance will also be considered. The variance of estimator is essential for estimating precision of the survey estimates, calculation of confidence intervals, determination of the optimal sample sizes and for testing of hypotheses amongst others. Although, the variance is a non-negative quantity but its estimators may not be non-negative. If the estimator of variance is negative, then it cannot be used for estimation of confidence intervals, testing of hypothesis or measure of sampling error. The non-negativity properties of the variance estimators will also be studied in details.

Keywords: auxiliary information, two-phase sampling, varying probability sampling, unbiased estimators

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Authors: R. Gharari, N. Kojouri, R. Hosseini Aghdam, E. Alibeigi, B. Salmasian

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In this research, the WWER1000/V446 (a PWR Russian type reactor) is chosen as the case study. It is assumed that radioactive materials that release into the environment are more than allowable limit due to a complete failure of the ventilation system (reactor stack). In the following, the HOTSPOT and the RASCAL computational codes have been used and coupled with a developed program using MATLAB software to evaluate Total effective dose equivalent (TEDE) and cancer risk according to the BEIR equations for various human organs. In addition, effects of the containment spray system and climate conditions on the TEDE have been investigated. According to the obtained results, there is an inverse correlation between the received dose and the wind speed; the amount of the TEDE for wind speed 2 m/s and is more than wind speed for 14 m/s during the class A of the climate (2.168 and 0.444 mSv, respectively). Also, containment spray system can effect and reduce the amount of the fission products and TEDE. Furthermore, the probability of the cancer risk for women is more than men, and for children is more than adults. In addition, a specific emergency zonal planning is proposed. Results are promising in which the site selection of the WWER1000/V446 were considered safe for the public in this situation.

Keywords: TEDE, total effective dose equivalent, RASCAL and HOTSPOT codes, BEIR equations, cancer risk

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Authors: Pandega Gama Mahardika, Muhammad Rifki Al Iksan, Datuk Fachrul Razy

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Oil And Gas Tanker Driver is a high-risk jobdesc. drivers drive with sleep circadian rhythm disturbances. Therefore, FAMOUS (Fatigue Management Online Ultimate System) conducted a diagnostic test on the effectiveness and accuracy of the Psychomotor vigilance test (PVT) in the field to capture the fatigue level of Oil And Gas Tanker Driver. Fatigue examination with the PVP method for 3 minutes using the Pertamina FAMOUS system (Fatigue Management Online Ultimate System). The research sample was Oil And Gas Tanker Driver Elnusa petrofin drivers as many as 2205 people. PVT is categorical data that states a driver has a low or high fatigue level. The quality of sleep at home was recorded by filling in a score of 1 = not well, 2 = not well, 3 = well, per person. A total of 1852 (84%) driver had a low fatigue level, while 353 (16%) driver had a high fatigue level. Poor sleep quality was experienced by 68 (79%) driver who had a high fatigue level. Oil And Gas Tanker Driver who slept soundly at home as many as 1804 (87%) had a low fatigue level. The correlation coefficient of sleep quality home and fatigue level is significant because it shows a probability value of 0.00 (p <5%). Fatigue level can be diagnosed through examining sleep quality, using FAMOUS Program for occupational medicine, particularly in the oil and gas sector.

Keywords: psychomotor vigilance test, fatigue, sleep, oil and gas tanker driver drivers, pertamina FAMOUS

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Authors: P. Mambanga, Goon, L. O. Amusa

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The purpose of the study was to investigate the socio-cultural factors hindering sport participation among female students in the Centre for Biokinetics, Recreation and Sport Science, University of Venda. A descriptive survey of 100 female student selected by simple random sampling was used and utilises the close ended questionnaire designed in a likert format was use for data collection. Face and content validity was employed in which the supervisor went through the instrument and correct and accept it thus checking the validity of the instrument. The test-retest approach was used to test the reliability of the instrument. Ethical considerations were ensured and confidentiality respected. Data was collected and presented in tables and results interpreted. Chi square which is a measure of non-parametric investigation was employed in order to analyse the observed and expected scores, with the probability value was set at 0.05 levels of significance on a two-tailed test of the hypotheses formulated for the study. Findings of the study established significant socio-cultural factors that hinder female sport participation among female students in the Centre for Biokinetics, Recreation and Sport Science. The study concluded that the low level participation of female students at the University of Venda might be as a result of socio-cultural factors.

Keywords: female students, sport participation, University of Venda, biokinetic

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Authors: Flavio Cordeiro Fontanella, Asla Medeiros e Sá, Moacyr Alvim Horta Barbosa da Silva

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In the present work, we analyse the performance of football results forecasting models. In order to do so, we have performed the data collection from eight different forecasting models during the 2021 Brazilian football season. First, we guide the analysis through visual representations of the data, designed to highlight the most prominent features and enhance the interpretation of differences and similarities between the models. We propose using a 2-simplex triangle to investigate visual patterns from the results forecasting models. Next, we compute the expected points for every team playing in the championship and compare them to the final league standings, revealing interesting contrasts between actual to expected performances. Then, we evaluate forecasts’ accuracy using the Ranked Probability Score (RPS); models comparison accounts for tiny scale differences that may become consistent in time. Finally, we observe that the Wisdom of Crowds principle can be appropriately applied in the context, driving into a discussion of results forecasts usage in practice. This paper’s primary goal is to encourage football forecasts’ performance discussion. We hope to accomplish it by presenting appropriate criteria and easy-to-understand visual representations that can point out the relevant factors of the subject.

Keywords: accuracy evaluation, Brazilian championship, football results forecasts, forecasting models, visual analysis

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Authors: Khairul Abid Awang

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Happiness and life satisfaction are the vital components in assessing the well-being of the societies and their social progress. These components varies and changes within communities and across time. Thus, due to low level of happiness and life satisfaction, it might affect mental health status psychologically and generally disrupt the health pattern of the individual. Hence, this present study aims to identify the happiness determinants, assessing the happiness and life satisfaction level, as well as examine the relation between happiness among Kampung Jaya Bakti adult community. Quantitative and cross-sectional study with total of 100 observations of 18 years old and above was participated in this study. The study was done in a semi-rural village which is geocentric towards river that branched from South East Asia Sea. Several happiness and life satisfaction instruments was used, inclusive of Individual Determinants of Happiness Scale (IDoHS) that had been developed in this study, in order to identify the determinants of happiness in the area based on the listed determinants. The listed determinants in IDoHS are: i) Daily activities. ii) Adaptation. iii) Goals. iv) Life Events. v) Living condition. vi) Self-confidence. vii) Personality traits. viii) Religion. The results revealed that 98% of the respondents agreed that the listed determinants in IDoHS are statistically significant in determining the happiness. The happiness level revealed that 71 percent (%) of the respondents are ‘very happy’, followed by 26% (‘moderately happy’) and 3% (‘neutral’), while life satisfaction level revealed that 70% of the respondents are ‘very highly satisfied’, followed by 29% (‘highly satisfied’) and 1% (‘moderately satisfied’). Pearson Correlation (Pearson’s r) shows that; happiness determinants listed in IDoHS are affecting happiness level (Pearson’s r: .514, p < 0.01) and life satisfaction level (Pearson’s r: .504, p < 0.01) respectively, as well as happiness that are statistically significant in affecting life satisfaction (Pearson’s r: .653, p < 0.01; Pearson’s r; .546, p < 0.01). It is concluded that the listed determinants in IDoHS are the determinants that affecting happiness and it is also noted that happiness are affecting life satisfaction and vice versa.

Keywords: adult community, determinants, happiness, life satisfaction, subjective well-being

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Authors: Jean Hugé, Francisco Benitez-Capistros, Giorgia Camperio-Ciani

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Addressing conservation conflicts requires the consideration of multiple stakeholders' perspectives and knowledge claims, in order to inform complex and possibly contentious decision-making dilemmas. Hence, a better understanding of why people in particular contexts act in a particular way in a conservation conflict is needed. First, this contribution aims at providing and applying an approach to map and interpret the diversity of subjective viewpoints with regard to iconic species in conservation conflicts. Secondly, this contribution aims to feed the reflection on the possible consequences of the diversity of perspectives for the future management of wildlife (in particular iconic species), based on case studies in Galapagos and Malaysia. The use of the semi-quantitative Q methodology allowed us to identify various perspectives on conservation in different social-ecological contexts. While the presence of iconic species may lead to a more passionate and emotional debate, it may also provide more opportunities for finding common ground and for jointly developing acceptable management solutions that will depolarize emergent, long-lasting or latent conservation conflicts. Based on the research team’s experience in the field, and on the integration of ecological and social knowledge, methodological and management recommendations are made with regard to conservation conflicts involving iconic wildlife. The mere presence of iconic wildlife does not guarantee its centrality in conservation conflicts, and comparisons will be drawn between the cases of the giant tortoises (Chelonoidis spec.) in Galapagos, Ecuador and the Milky Stork (Mycteria cinerea) in western peninsular Malaysia. Acknowledging the diversity of viewpoints, reflecting how different stakeholders see, act and talk about wildlife management, highlights the need to develop pro-active and resilient strategies to deal with these issues.

Keywords: conservation conflicts, Q methodology, Galapagos, Malaysia, giant tortoise, milky stork

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Authors: Maria Albuquerque, Miguel Matias, Ângelo Sá, Juliana Sousa, Maria Manuel Mouzinho

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Obesity is a frequent disease in Portugal. The surgical treatment is very effective and has an indication when there is a failure of the medical treatment. Although massive weight loss is associated with considerable health gains, these patients are characterized by a variable degree of dermolipodistrophy. In some cases, there is even the development of physical symptoms such as intertriginous, and some degree of psychological distress is present. In almost all cases, a desire for a better body contour, which inhibits some aspects of social life, is a fact. A prospective study was made to access the impact of body contouring surgery in the quality of life of patients who underwent a massive weight lost correction surgical procedure at Centro Hospitalar de Lisboa Central between January 2020 and December 2021. The patients were submitted to the Body Q subjective questionnaire adapted for the Portuguese language and accessed for the following categories: Anguish with Appearance, Contempt with Body Image, Satisfaction with the Abdomen, and Overall Satisfaction with the Body. The questionnaire was repeated at the 6 months mark. A total of 80 patients were sampled. The sex distribution was 79 female and 1 male. The median BMI index before surgery was inferior to 28%. The pre operatory questionnaire showed high scores for Anguish with Appearance and low scores for the body image self-evaluation. Overall, there was an improvement of at least 50% in all the evaluated scores. Additionally, a correlation was found between abdominoplasty and the contempt with body image and satisfaction with the abdomen (p-value <0.05). Massive weight loss is associated with important body deformities that have a significant impact on the patient’s personal and social life. Body contouring surgery is then vital for these patients as it implicates major aesthetic and functional benefits.

Keywords: abdominoplasty, cruroplasty, obesity, massive weight loss

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Authors: Jurica Hižak

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Getting to know the agents, i.e., identifying the free riders in a population, can be considered one of the main challenges in establishing cooperation. An ordinary memory-one agent such as Tit-for-tat may learn “who is who” in the population through direct interactions. Past experiences serve them as a landmark to know with whom to cooperate and against whom to retaliate in the next encounter. However, this kind of learning is risky and expensive. A cheaper and less painful way to detect free riders may be achieved by gossiping. For this reason, as part of this research, a special type of Tit-for-tat agent was designed – a “Gossip-Tit-for-tat” agent that can share data with other agents of its kind. The performances of both strategies, ordinary Tit-for-tat and Gossip-Tit-for-tat, against Always-defect have been compared in the finite-game framework of the Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma via the Moran process. Agents were able to move in a random-walk fashion, and they were programmed to play Prisoner’s Dilemma each time they met. Moreover, at each step, one randomly selected individual was eliminated, and one individual was reproduced in accordance with the Moran process of selection. In this way, the size of the population always remained the same. Agents were selected for reproduction via the roulette wheel rule, i.e., proportionally to the relative fitness of the strategy. The absorption probability was calculated after the population had been absorbed completely by cooperators, which means that all the states have been occupied and all of the transition probabilities have been determined. It was shown that gossip increases absorption probabilities and therefore enhances the evolution of cooperation in the population.

Keywords: cooperation, gossip, indirect reciprocity, Moran process, prisoner’s dilemma, tit-for-tat

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Authors: Jong Yeop Kim, In Kyong Yi, Hyun Jeong Kwak, Sook Young Lee, Sung Yong Park

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Background: Several video laryngoscopes (VLs) were used to facilitate tracheal intubation in the normal and potentially difficult airway, especially by novice personnel. The aim of this study was to compare tracheal intubation performance regarding the time to intubation, glottic view, difficulty, and dental click, by a novice using McGrath VL, Pentax Airway Scope (AWS) and Macintosh laryngoscope in normal and cervical immobilized manikin models. Methods: Thirty-five anesthesia nurses without previous intubation experience were recruited. The participants performed endotracheal intubation in a manikin model at two simulated neck positions (normal and fixed neck via cervical immobilization), using three different devices (McGrath VL, Pentax AWS, and Macintosh direct laryngoscope) at three times each. Performance parameters included intubation time, success rate of intubation, Cormack Lehane laryngoscope grading, dental click, and subjective difficulty score. Results: Intubation time and success rate at the first attempt were not significantly different between the 3 groups in normal airway manikin. In the cervical immobilized manikin, the intubation time was shorter (p = 0.012) and the success rate with the first attempt was significantly higher (p < 0.001) when using McGrath VL and Pentax AWS compared with Macintosh laryngoscope. Both VLs showed less difficulty score (p < 0.001) and more Cormack Lehane grade I (p < 0.001). The incidence of dental clicks was higher with McGrath VL than Macintosh laryngoscope in the normal and cervical immobilized airway (p = 0.005, p < 0.001, respectively). Conclusion: McGrath VL and Pentax AWS resulted in shorter intubation time, higher first attempt success rate, compared with Macintosh laryngoscope by a novice intubator in a cervical immobilized manikin model. McGrath VL could be reduced the risk of dental injury compared with Macintosh laryngoscope in this scenario.

Keywords: intubation, manikin, novice, videolaryngoscope

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Authors: Yina F. Muñoz, Alexander Paz, Hanns De La Fuente-Mella, Joaquin V. Fariña, Guilherme M. Sales

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The primary approach for estimating bridge deterioration uses Markov-chain models and regression analysis. Traditional Markov models have problems in estimating the required transition probabilities when a small sample size is used. Often, reliable bridge data have not been taken over large periods, thus large data sets may not be available. This study presents an important change to the traditional approach by using the Small Data Method to estimate transition probabilities. The results illustrate that the Small Data Method and traditional approach both provide similar estimates; however, the former method provides results that are more conservative. That is, Small Data Method provided slightly lower than expected bridge condition ratings compared with the traditional approach. Considering that bridges are critical infrastructures, the Small Data Method, which uses more information and provides more conservative estimates, may be more appropriate when the available sample size is small. In addition, regression analysis was used to calculate bridge deterioration. Condition ratings were determined for bridge groups, and the best regression model was selected for each group. The results obtained were very similar to those obtained when using Markov chains; however, it is desirable to use more data for better results.

Keywords: concrete bridges, deterioration, Markov chains, probability matrix

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Authors: Kopila Shrestha

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Adolescent sexual reproductive health is one of the most important issues in the world. Reproductive ability is taking place at an earlier age and adolescents are indulging in risk taking behaviors day by day. A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted in Kathmandu valley to assess the knowledge regarding sexual and reproductive health among adolescent. Total of 200 respondents were selected through non-probability convenient sampling technique. Self-administered written questionnaires using semi-structured questions were used. The collected data were analyzed by using descriptive statistics such as frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation and inferential statistics such as Chi-square test. The findings revealed that most of the respondents had adequate knowledge regarding transmission and protection of HIV/AIDs and STIs but still some respondents had a misconception regarding it. Few respondents had knowledge regarding legal age for marriage and the minimum age for first child bearing. The statistical analysis revealed that the total mean knowledge score with standard deviation was 45.02±8.674. Nearly half of the respondents (49.5%) had a moderate level of knowledge, followed by an inadequate level of knowledge 29.5% and adequate level of knowledge 21.0% regarding sexual and reproductive health. There was significant association of level of knowledge with area of residence (p-value .002) but no association with age (p-value .067), sex (p-value .999), religion (p-value .082) and ethnicity (p-value .114). Nearly half of the participants possess some knowledge about sexual and reproductive health but still effective educational intervention is required in higher secondary school to encourage more sensible and healthy behaviour.

Keywords: adolescents, higher secondary school, knowledge, sexual and reproductive health

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Authors: Noora Al-Shanfari, M. Mazharul Islam

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The cumulative incidence function (CIF) is a fundamental approach for analyzing survival data in the presence of competing risks, which estimates the marginal probability for each competing event. Parametric modeling of CIF has the advantage of fitting various shapes of CIF and estimates the impact of covariates with maximum efficiency. To calculate the total CIF's covariate influence using a parametric model., it is essential to parametrize the baseline of the CIF. As the CIF is an improper function by nature, it is necessary to utilize an improper distribution when applying parametric models. The Gompertz distribution, which is an improper distribution, is limited in its applicability as it only accounts for monotone hazard shapes. The generalized Gompertz distribution, however, can adapt to a wider range of hazard shapes, including unimodal, bathtub, and monotonic increasing or decreasing hazard shapes. In this paper, the generalized Gompertz distribution is used to parametrize the baseline of the CIF, and the parameters of the proposed model are estimated using the maximum likelihood approach. The proposed model is compared with the existing Gompertz model using the Akaike information criterion. Appropriate statistical test procedures and model-fitting criteria will be used to test the adequacy of the model. Both models are applied to the ‘colon’ dataset, which is available in the “biostat3” package in R.

Keywords: competing risks, cumulative incidence function, improper distribution, parametric modeling, survival analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 103