Search results for: generalized mathematical model

Authors: Hammad Khan, Wookeun Bae

Abstract:

The objective of this study was to optimize and control the highly loaded and efficient nitrite production having suitability for autotrophic and heterotrophic denitritation. A lab scale CSTR for partial and full nitritation was operated to treat the livestock manure digester liquor having an ammonium concentration of ~2000 mg-NH4+-N/L and biodegradable contents of ~0.8 g-COD/L. The experiments were performed at 30°C, pH: 8.0 DO: 1.5 mg/L and SRT ranging from 7-20 days. After 125 days operation, >95% nitrite buildup having the ammonium loading rate of ~3.2 kg-NH4+-N/m3-day was seen with almost complete ammonium conversion. On increasing the loading rate further (i.e. from 3.2-6.2 kg-NH4+-N/m3-day), stability of the system remained unaffected. On decreasing the pH from 8 to7.5 and further 7.2, removal rate can be easily controlled as 95%, 75% and even 50%. Results demonstrated that nitritation stability and desired removal rates are controlled by a balance of simultaneous inhibition by FA and FNA, pH affect and DO limitation. These parameters proved to be effective even to produce an appropriate influent for anammox. In addition, a mathematical model, identified through the occurring biological reactions, is proposed to optimize the full and partial nitritation process. The proposed model presents relationship between pH, ammonium and produced nitrite for full and partial nitritation under the varying concentrations of DO, and simultaneous inhibition by FA and FNA.

Keywords: stable nitritation, high loading, autrophic denitritation, hetrotrophic denitritation

Procedia PDF Downloads 324

Authors: Deepak Raj Bhat, Ryuichi Yatabe

Abstract:

In this study, a residual-state creep failure model was developed based on the residual-state creep test results of clayey soils. To develop the proposed model, the regression analyses were done by using the R. The model results of the failure time (tf) and critical displacement (δc) were compared with experimental results and found in close agreements to each others. It is expected that the proposed regression model for residual-state creep failure will be more useful for the prediction of displacement of different clayey soils in the future.

Keywords: regression model, residual-state creep failure, displacement prediction, clayey soils

Procedia PDF Downloads 406

Authors: Ossama Matrane

Abstract:

Information System has become a strategic lever for enterprises. It contributes effectively to align business processes on strategies of enterprises. It is regarded as an increase in productivity and effectiveness. So, many organizations are currently involved in implementing sustainable Information System. And, a large number of studies have been conducted the last decade in order to define the success factors of information system. Thus, many studies on maturity model have been carried out. Some of this study is referred to the maturity model of Information System. In this article, we report on development of maturity models specifically designed for information system. This model is built based on three components derived from Maturity Model for Information Security Management, OPM3 for Project Management Maturity Model and processes of COBIT for IT governance. Thus, our proposed model defines three maturity stages for corporate a strong Information System to support objectives of organizations. It provides a very practical structure with which to assess and improve Information System Implementation.

Keywords: information system, maturity models, information security management, OPM3, IT governance

Procedia PDF Downloads 445

Authors: Ouzayr Rabhi, Ibtissam Arrassen

Abstract:

To provide a complete analysis of the organization and to help decision-making, leaders need to have relevant data; Data Warehouses (DW) are designed to meet such needs. However, designing DW is not trivial and there is no formal method to derive a multidimensional schema from heterogeneous databases. In this article, we present a Model-Driven based approach concerning the design of data warehouses. We describe a multidimensional meta-model and also specify a set of transformations starting from a Unified Modeling Language (UML) metamodel. In this approach, the UML metamodel and the multidimensional one are both considered as a platform-independent model (PIM). The first meta-model is mapped into the second one through transformation rules carried out by the Query View Transformation (QVT) language. This proposal is validated through the application of our approach to generating a multidimensional schema of a Balanced Scorecard (BSC) DW. We are interested in the BSC perspectives, which are highly linked to the vision and the strategies of an organization.

Keywords: data warehouse, meta-model, model-driven architecture, transformation, UML

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Authors: Ria Forner

Abstract:

Introduction: Due to increases in the SNR at 7T and above, it becomes more favourable to make use of X-nuclear imaging. Integrated body coils tuned to 120MHz for 31P, 79MHz for 23Na, and 75 MHz for 13C at 7T were simulated with a human male, female, or child body model to assess strategies of use for metabolic MR imaging in the body. Methods: B1 and SAR efficiencies in the heart, liver, spleen, and kidneys were assessed using numerical simulations over the three frequencies with phase shimming. Results: B1+ efficiency is highly variable over the different organs, particularly for the highest frequency; however, local SAR efficiency remains relatively constant over the frequencies in all subjects. Although the optimal phase settings vary, one generic phase setting can be identified for each frequency at which the penalty in B1+ is at a max of 10%. Discussion: The simulations provide practical strategies for power optimization, B1 management, and maintaining safety. As expected, the B1 field is similar at 75MHz and 79MHz, but reduced at 120MHz. However, the B1 remains relatively constant when normalised by the square root of the peak local SAR. This is in contradiction to generalized SAR considerations of 1H MRI at different field strengths, which is defined by global SAR instead. Conclusion: Although the B1 decreases with frequency, SAR efficiency remains constant throughout the investigated frequency range. It is possible to shim the body coil to obtain a maximum of 10% extra B1+ in a specific organ in a body when compared to a generic setting.

Keywords: birdcage, multi-nuclear, B1 shimming, 7 Tesla MRI, liver, kidneys, heart, spleen

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Authors: Vipin Choudhary

Abstract:

Time Dilation is the difference in the amount of time two clocks measure in the same inertial frame. Many studies have explored the relativity of time dilation using various approaches. However, the scientific and mathematical explanation of time dilation of moving things and light pulse clocks still has limited research. Therefore, this article examines relativity by utilizing scientific and mathematical approaches; the experience of moving things and light pulse clock ticks have been examined. The study revealed that the time elapsed for the same process is different for the different observers. Here, it showed that the time can be expressed in the form of a wave. In addition, the relative distance changes between the observers, and the observing subject time flows differently for the observer relative to the observing subject.

Keywords: Einstein's special theory of relativity, reference frame, time dilation, length contraction, Lorentz transformation.

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Authors: Kiumars Shahbazi, Salah Salimian, Abdolrahim Hashemi Dizaj

Abstract:

Locating is one of the key elements in success and survival of industrial centers and has great impact on cost reduction of establishment and launching of various economic activities. In this study, streets with unequal length model have been used that is the classic extension of Spoke model; however with unlimited number of streets with uneven lengths. The results showed that the spoke model is a special case of streets with unequal length model. According to the results of this study, if the strategy of enterprises and firms is to select both price and location, there would be no balance in the game. Furthermore, increased length of streets leads to increased profit of enterprises and with increased number of streets, the enterprises choose locations that are far from center (the maximum differentiation), and the enterprises' output will decrease. Moreover, the enterprise production rate will incline toward zero when the number of streets goes to infinity, and complete competition outcome will be achieved.

Keywords: locating, Nash equilibrium, streets with unequal length model, streets with unequal length model

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Authors: Zineb Nougrara

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a novel methodology for extracting a road network and its nodes from satellite images of Algeria country. This developed technique is a progress of our previous research works. It is founded on the information theory and the mathematical morphology; the information theory and the mathematical morphology are combined together to extract and link the road segments to form a road network and its nodes. We, therefore, have to define objects as sets of pixels and to study the shape of these objects and the relations that exist between them. In this approach, geometric and radiometric features of roads are integrated by a cost function and a set of selected points of a crossing road. Its performances were tested on satellite images of Algeria country.

Keywords: satellite image, road network, nodes, image analysis and processing

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Authors: Jeong-Hyun Park, Young-Sik Park, Hyo-Teag Jung

Abstract:

This paper presents static analysis deployment model for code quality on R&D Projects of SW Development. The proposed model includes the scope of R&D projects and index for static analysis of source code, operation model and execution process, environments and infrastructure system for R&D projects of SW development. There is the static analysis result of pilot project as case study based on the proposed deployment model and environment, and strategic considerations for success operation of the proposed static analysis deployment model for R&D Projects of SW Development. The proposed static analysis deployment model in this paper will be adapted and improved continuously for quality upgrade of R&D projects, and customer satisfaction of developed source codes and products.

Keywords: static analysis, code quality, coding rules, automation tool

Procedia PDF Downloads 518

Authors: Zhiwu Zheng, Prakhar Kumar, Sigurd Wagner, Naveen Verma, James C. Sturm

Abstract:

Soft robots have drawn great interest recently due to a rich range of possible shapes and motions they can take on to address new applications, compared to traditional rigid robots. Large-area electronics (LAE) provides a unique platform for creating soft robots by leveraging thin-film technology to enable the integration of a large number of actuators, sensors, and control circuits on flexible sheets. However, the rich shapes and motions possible, especially when interacting with complex environments, pose significant challenges to forming well-generalized and robust models necessary for robot design and control. In this work, we describe an analytical model for predicting the shape and locomotion of a flexible (steel-foil-based) piezoelectric-actuated 2D robot based on Euler-Bernoulli beam theory. It is nominally (unpowered) lying flat on the ground, and when powered, its shape is controlled by an array of piezoelectric thin-film actuators. Key features of the models are its ability to incorporate the significant effects of gravity on the shape and to precisely predict the spatial distribution of friction against the contacting surfaces, necessary for determining inchworm-type motion. We verified the model by developing a distributed discrete element representation of a continuous piezoelectric actuator and by comparing its analytical predictions to discrete-element robot simulations using PyBullet. Without gravity, predicting the shape of a sheet with a linear array of piezoelectric actuators at arbitrary voltages is straightforward. However, gravity significantly distorts the shape of the sheet, causing some segments to flatten against the ground. Our work includes the following contributions: (i) A self-consistent approach was developed to exactly determine which parts of the soft robot are lifted off the ground, and the exact shape of these sections, for an arbitrary array of piezoelectric voltages and configurations. (ii) Inchworm-type motion relies on controlling the relative friction with the ground surface in different sections of the robot. By adding torque-balance to our model and analyzing shear forces, the model can then determine the exact spatial distribution of the vertical force that the ground is exerting on the soft robot. Through this, the spatial distribution of friction forces between ground and robot can be determined. (iii) By combining this spatial friction distribution with the shape of the soft robot, in the function of time as piezoelectric actuator voltages are changed, the inchworm-type locomotion of the robot can be determined. As a practical example, we calculated the performance of a 5-actuator system on a 50-µm thick steel foil. Piezoelectric properties of commercially available thin-film piezoelectric actuators were assumed. The model predicted inchworm motion of up to 200 µm per step. For independent verification, we also modelled the system using PyBullet, a discrete-element robot simulator. To model a continuous thin-film piezoelectric actuator, we broke each actuator into multiple segments, each of which consisted of two rigid arms with appropriate mass connected with a 'motor' whose torque was set by the applied actuator voltage. Excellent agreement between our analytical model and the discrete-element simulator was shown for both for the full deformation shape and motion of the robot.

Keywords: analytical modeling, piezoelectric actuators, soft robot locomotion, thin-film technology

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Authors: Bahare Askarian, Suchithra Rajendran

Abstract:

Maintaining the freshness and quality of perishable goods during distribution is a critical challenge for logistics companies. This study presents a comprehensive framework aimed at optimizing the distribution of perishable goods through a mathematical model of the Transportation Inventory Location Routing Problem (TILRP). The model incorporates the impact of product age on customer demand, addressing the complexities associated with inventory management and routing. To tackle this problem, we develop both simple and hybrid metaheuristic algorithms designed for small- and medium-scale scenarios. The hybrid algorithm combines Biogeographical Based Optimization (BBO) algorithms with local search techniques to enhance performance in small- and medium-scale scenarios, extending our approach to larger-scale challenges. Through extensive numerical simulations and sensitivity analyses across various scenarios, the performance of the proposed algorithms is evaluated, assessing their effectiveness in achieving optimal solutions. The results demonstrate that our algorithms significantly enhance distribution efficiency, offering valuable insights for logistics companies striving to improve their perishable goods supply chains.

Keywords: perishable goods, meta-heuristic algorithm, vehicle problem, inventory models

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Authors: Azizah Che Omar

Abstract:

Various studies have proposed factors of impulse purchase in different advertising mediums like website, mobile, traditional retail store and traditional television. However, to the best of researchers’ knowledge, none of the impulse purchase model is dedicated towards impulse purchase tendency for interactive TV (iTV) advertising. Therefore, the proposed model conceptual design model of interactive television advertising toward impulse purchase (iTVAdIP) was developed. The focus of this study is to evaluate the conceptual design model of iTVAdIP through expert review. As a result, the finding showed that majority of expert reviews agreed that the conceptual design model iTVAdIP is applicable to the development of interactive television advertising and it will increase the effectiveness of advertising. This study also shows the conceptual design model of iTVAdIP that has been reviewed.

Keywords: impulse purchase, interactive television advertising, persuasive

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Authors: Ruchika Sharma

Abstract:

In the past decade, there has been an explosion of research that has examined children’s understanding of TV advertisements and its persuasive intent, socialization of child consumer and child psychology. However, it is evident from the literature review that no studies in this area have covered advertising messages and its impact on children’s brand recall and ad recognition. Copywriters use various creative devices to lure the consumers and very impressionable consumers such as children face far more drastic effects of these creative ways of persuasion. On the basis of Piaget’s theory of cognitive development as a theoretical basis for predicting/understanding children’s response and understanding, a quasi-experiment was carried out for the study, that manipulated measurement timing and advertising messages (familiar vs. unfamiliar) keeping gender and age group as two prominent factors. This study also examines children’s understanding of Advertisements and its elements, predominantly - Language, keeping in view Fishbein’s model. Study revealed significant associations between above mentioned factors and children’s brand recall and ad identification. Further, to test the reliability of the findings on larger sample, bootstrap simulation technique was used. The simulation results are in accordance with the findings of experiment, suggesting that the conclusions obtained from the study can be generalized for entire children’s (as consumers) market in India.

Keywords: advertising, brand recall, cognitive development, preferences

Procedia PDF Downloads 290

Authors: Hammad Khan, Wookeun Bae

Abstract:

The objective of this study was to achieve, optimize and control the highly loaded and efficient nitrite production having suitability for autotrophic and heterotrophic denitritation. A lab scale CSTR for partial and full nitritation was operated to treat the livestock manure digester liquor having an ammonium concentration of ~2000 mg-NH4+-N/L and biodegradable contents of ~0.8 g-COD/L. The experiments were performed at 30°C, pH: 8.0, DO: 1.5 mg/L and SRT ranging from 7-20 days. After 125 days operation, >95% nitrite buildup having the ammonium loading rate of ~3.2 kg-NH4+-N/m3-day was seen with almost complete ammonium conversion. On increasing the loading rate further (i-e, from 3.2-6.2 kg-NH4+-N/m3-day), stability of the system remained unaffected. On decreasing the pH from 8 to 7.5 and further 7.2, removal rate can be easily controlled as 95%, 75% and even 50%. Results demonstrated that nitritation stability and desired removal rates are controlled by a balance of simultaneous inhibition by FA & FNA, pH affect and DO limitation. These parameters proved to be effective even to produce an appropriate influent for anammox. In addition, a mathematical model, identified through the occurring biological reactions, is proposed to optimize the full and partial nitritation process. The proposed model present relationship between pH, ammonium and produced nitrite for full and partial nitritation under the varying concentrations of DO, and simultaneous inhibition by FA and FNA.

Keywords: stable nitritation, high loading, autrophic denitritation, hetrotrophic denitritation

Procedia PDF Downloads 271

Authors: N. A. Mokhtar, A. G. Hussin, Y. Z. Zubairi

Abstract:

This paper proposes a new simultaneous simple linear functional relationship model by assuming equal error variances. We derive the maximum likelihood estimate of the parameters in the simultaneous model and the covariance. We show by simulation study the small bias values of the parameters suggest the suitability of the estimation method. As an illustration, the proposed simultaneous model is applied to real data of the wind direction and wave direction measured by two different instruments.

Keywords: simultaneous linear functional relationship model, Fisher information matrix, parameter estimation, circular variables

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Authors: Sheena K. J., Jyoti Badge, Sayed Mohammed Zeeshan

Abstract:

A Comparative Study of Exponential and Logistic Population Growth Models in India India is the second most populous city in the world, just behind China, and is going to be in the first place by next year. The Indian population has remarkably at higher rate than the other countries from the past 20 years. There were many scientists and demographers who has formulated various models of population growth in order to study and predict the future population. Some of the models are Fibonacci population growth model, Exponential growth model, Logistic growth model, Lotka-Volterra model, etc. These models have been effective in the past to an extent in predicting the population. However, it is essential to have a detailed comparative study between the population models to come out with a more accurate one. Having said that, this research study helps to analyze and compare the two population models under consideration - exponential and logistic growth models, thereby identifying the most effective one. Using the census data of 2011, the approximate population for 2016 to 2031 are calculated for 20 Indian states using both the models, compared and recorded the data with the actual population. On comparing the results of both models, it is found that logistic population model is more accurate than the exponential model, and using this model, we can predict the future population in a more effective way. This will give an insight to the researchers about the effective models of population and how effective these population models are in predicting the future population.

Keywords: population growth, population models, exponential model, logistic model, fibonacci model, lotka-volterra model, future population prediction, demographers

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Authors: Dimitra Alexiou

Abstract:

In an urban area the allocation placement of an emergency service mobile units, such as ambulances, police patrol must be designed so as to achieve a prompt response to demand locations. In this paper, a partition of a given urban network into distinct sub-networks is performed such that; the vertices in each component are close and simultaneously the difference of the sums of the corresponding population in the sub-networks is almost uniform. The objective here is to position appropriately in each sub-network a mobile emergency unit in order to reduce the response time to the demands. A mathematical model in the framework of graph theory is developed. In order to clarify the corresponding method a relevant numerical example is presented on a small network.

Keywords: graph partition, emergency service, distances, location

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Authors: Georgi I. Petkov, Ivan I. Vankov, Yolina A. Petrova

Abstract:

A structure-based model of category learning and categorization at different levels of abstraction is presented. The model compares different structures and expresses their similarity implicitly in the forms of mappings. Based on this similarity, the model can categorize different targets either as members of categories that it already has or creates new categories. The model is novel using two threshold parameters to evaluate the structural correspondence. If the similarity between two structures exceeds the higher threshold, a new sub-ordinate category is created. Vice versa, if the similarity does not exceed the higher threshold but does the lower one, the model creates a new category on higher level of abstraction.

Keywords: analogy-making, categorization, learning of categories, abstraction, hierarchical structure

Procedia PDF Downloads 188

Authors: C. Patrascioiu, V. Matei, N. Nicolae

Abstract:

The paper describes the experiments and the kinetic parameters calculus of the gasoil hydrofining. They are presented experimental results of gasoil hidrofining using Mo and promoted with Ni on aluminum support catalyst. The authors have adapted a kinetic model gasoil hydrofining. Using this proposed kinetic model and the experimental data they have calculated the parameters of the model. The numerical calculus is based on minimizing the difference between the experimental sulf concentration and kinetic model estimation.

Keywords: hydrofining, kinetic, modeling, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 433

Authors: Kostas Metaxiotis

Abstract:

Portfolio optimization is one of the most important topics in finance. This paper proposes a mean–variance–skewness (MVS) portfolio optimization model. Traditionally, the portfolio optimization problem is solved by using the mean–variance (MV) framework. In this study, we formulate the proposed model as a three-objective optimization problem, where the portfolio's expected return and skewness are maximized whereas the portfolio risk is minimized. For solving the proposed three-objective portfolio optimization model we apply an adapted version of the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGAII). Finally, we use a real dataset from FTSE-100 for validating the proposed model.

Keywords: evolutionary algorithms, portfolio optimization, skewness, stock selection

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Authors: Jonny, T. Yuri M. Zagloel

Abstract:

This paper is made to present an Indonesian Healthcare model. Currently, there are nine TQM (Total Quality Management) practices in healthcare industry. However, these practices are not integrated yet. Therefore, this paper aims to integrate these practices as a model by using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). After administering about 210 questionnaires to various stakeholders of this industry, a LISREL program was used to evaluate the model's fitness. The result confirmed that the model is fit because the p-value was about 0.45 or above required 0.05. This has signified that previously mentioned of nine TQM practices are able to be integrated as an Indonesian healthcare model.

Keywords: healthcare, total quality management (TQM), structural equation modeling (SEM), linear structural relations (LISREL)

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Authors: Stephanie Chen, Mitja Echim, Christof Büskens

Abstract:

To describe and propagate the behavior of a system mathematical models are formulated. Parameter identification is used to adapt the coefficients of the underlying laws of science. For complex systems this approach can be incomplete and hence imprecise and moreover too slow to be computed efficiently. Therefore, these models might be not applicable for the numerical optimization of real systems, since these techniques require numerous evaluations of the models. Moreover not all quantities necessary for the identification might be available and hence the system must be adapted manually. Therefore, an approach is described that generates models that overcome the before mentioned limitations by not focusing on physical laws, but on measured (sensor) data of real systems. The approach is more general since it generates models for every system detached from the scientific background. Additionally, this approach can be used in a more general sense, since it is able to automatically identify correlations in the data. The method can be classified as a multivariate data regression analysis. In contrast to many other data regression methods this variant is also able to identify correlations of products of variables and not only of single variables. This enables a far more precise and better representation of causal correlations. The basis and the explanation of this method come from an analytical background: the series expansion. Another advantage of this technique is the possibility of real-time adaptation of the generated models during operation. Herewith system changes due to aging, wear or perturbations from the environment can be taken into account, which is indispensable for realistic scenarios. Since these data driven models can be evaluated very efficiently and with high precision, they can be used in mathematical optimization algorithms that minimize a cost function, e.g. time, energy consumption, operational costs or a mixture of them, subject to additional constraints. The proposed method has successfully been tested in several complex applications and with strong industrial requirements. The generated models were able to simulate the given systems with an error in precision less than one percent. Moreover the automatic identification of the correlations was able to discover so far unknown relationships. To summarize the above mentioned approach is able to efficiently compute high precise and real-time-adaptive data-based models in different fields of industry. Combined with an effective mathematical optimization algorithm like WORHP (We Optimize Really Huge Problems) several complex systems can now be represented by a high precision model to be optimized within the user wishes. The proposed methods will be illustrated with different examples.

Keywords: adaptive modeling, automatic identification of correlations, data based modeling, optimization

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Authors: Li Shuang

Abstract:

With rigid teaching procedures and limited academic performance assessment methods, traditional teaching model stands in the way of college English reform in China, which features EAP (English for Academic Purpose) teaching. Flipped-classroom teaching, which has been extensively applied to science subjects teaching, however, covers the shortage of traditional teaching model in EAP teaching, via creatively inverting traditional teaching procedures. Besides, the application of flipped-classroom teaching model in EAP teaching also proves that this new teaching philosophy is not confined to science subjects teaching; it goes perfectly well with liberal-arts subjects teaching. Data analysis, desk research survey, and comparative study are referred to in the essay so as to prove its feasibility and advantages in EAP teaching.

Keywords: EAP, traditional teaching method, flipped-classroom teaching model, teaching model design

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Authors: Rajai Al-Rousan

Abstract:

This paper presents a proposed analytical model for predicting the shear strength of reinforced concrete beams strengthened with CFRP composites as external reinforcement. The proposed analytical model can predict the shear contribution of CFRP composites of RC beams with an acceptable coefficient of correlation with the tested results. Based on the comparison of the proposed model with the published well-known models (ACI model, Triantafillou model, and Colotti model), the ACI model had a wider range of 0.16 to 10.08 for the ratio between tested and predicted ultimate shears at failure. Also, an acceptable range of 0.27 to 2.78 for the ratio between tested and predicted ultimate shears by the Triantafillou model. Finally, the best prediction (the ratio between the tested and predicted ones) of the ultimate shear capacity is observed by using Colotti model with a range of 0.20 to 1.78. Thus, the contribution of the CFRP composites as external reinforcement can be predicted with high accuracy by using the proposed analytical model.

Keywords: predicting, shear capacity, reinforced concrete, beams, strengthened, externally, CFRP composites

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Authors: A. Brahma

Abstract:

The drying of hydraulics materials is unavoidable and conducted to important spontaneous deformations. In this study, we show that it is possible to describe the drying shrinkage of the high-performance concrete by a simple expression. A multiple regression model was developed for the prediction of the drying shrinkage of the high-performance concrete. The assessment of the proposed model has been done by a set of statistical tests. The model developed takes in consideration the main parameters of confection and conservation. There was a very good agreement between drying shrinkage predicted by the multiple regression model and experimental results. The developed model adjusts easily to all hydraulic concrete types.

Keywords: hydraulic concretes, drying, shrinkage, prediction, modeling

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Authors: A. Seleem, M. Mortada, M. El-Morsi, M. Younan

Abstract:

Diffusion stills have been effective in water desalination. The present work represents a model of the distillation process by using vertical single-effect diffusion stills. A semi-analytical model has been developed to model the process. A software computer code using Engineering Equation Solver EES software has been developed to solve the equations of the developed model. An experimental setup has been constructed, and used for the validation of the model. The model is also validated against former literature results. The results obtained from the present experimental test rig, and the data from the literature, have been compared with the results of the code to find its best range of validity. In addition, a parametric analysis of the system has been developed using the model to determine the effect of operating conditions on the system's performance. The dominant parameters that affect the productivity of the still are the hot plate temperature that ranges from (55-90 °C) and feed flow rate in range of (0.00694-0.0211 kg/m2-s).

Keywords: analytical model, solar distillation, sustainable water systems, vertical diffusion still

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Authors: Zdeněk Veselý, Milan Honner, Jiří Mach

Abstract:

The aim of the performed work is to establish the 2D and 3D model of direct unsteady task of sample heat treatment by moving source employing computer model on the basis of finite element method. The complex boundary condition on heat loaded sample surface is the essential feature of the task. Computer model describes heat treatment of the sample during heat source movement over the sample surface. It is started from the 2D task of sample cross section as a basic model. Possibilities of extension from 2D to 3D task are discussed. The effect of the addition of third model dimension on the temperature distribution in the sample is showed. Comparison of various model parameters on the sample temperatures is observed. Influence of heat source motion on the depth of material heat treatment is shown for several velocities of the movement. Presented computer model is prepared for the utilization in laser treatment of machine parts.

Keywords: computer simulation, unsteady model, heat treatment, complex boundary condition, moving heat source

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Authors: Dimakatso Machetele, Kowiyou Yessoufou

Abstract:

Whilst several studies indicated that road accident events might be more complex than thought, we have a limited scientific understanding of this complexity in South Africa. The present project proposes and tests a more comprehensive metamodel that integrates multiple causality relationships among variables previously linked to road accidents. This was done by fitting a structural equation model (SEM) to the data collected from various sources. The study also fitted the GARCH Model (Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) to predict the future of road accidents in the country. The analysis shows that the number of road accidents has been increasing since 1935. The road fatality rate follows a polynomial shape following the equation: y = -0.0114x²+1.2378x-2.2627 (R²=0.76) with y = death rate and x = year. This trend results in an average death rate of 23.14 deaths per 100,000 people. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the number of crashes could be significantly explained by the total number of vehicles (P < 0.001), number of registered vehicles (P < 0.001), number of unregistered vehicles (P = 0.003) and the population of the country (P < 0.001). As opposed to expectation, the number of driver licenses issued and total distance traveled by vehicles do not correlate significantly with the number of crashes (P > 0.05). Furthermore, the analysis reveals that the number of casualties could be linked significantly to the number of registered vehicles (P < 0.001) and total distance traveled by vehicles (P = 0.03). As for the number of fatal crashes, the analysis reveals that the total number of vehicles (P < 0.001), number of registered (P < 0.001) and unregistered vehicles (P < 0.001), the population of the country (P < 0.001) and the total distance traveled by vehicles (P < 0.001) correlate significantly with the number of fatal crashes. However, the number of casualties and again the number of driver licenses do not seem to determine the number of fatal crashes (P > 0.05). Finally, the number of crashes is predicted to be roughly constant overtime at 617,253 accidents for the next 10 years, with the worse scenario suggesting that this number may reach 1 896 667. The number of casualties was also predicted to be roughly constant at 93 531 overtime, although this number may reach 661 531 in the worst-case scenario. However, although the number of fatal crashes may decrease over time, it is forecasted to reach 11 241 fatal crashes within the next 10 years, with the worse scenario estimated at 19 034 within the same period. Finally, the number of fatalities is also predicted to be roughly constant at 14 739 but may also reach 172 784 in the worse scenario. Overall, the present study reveals the complexity of road accidents and allows us to propose several recommendations aimed to reduce the trend of road accidents, casualties, fatal crashes, and death in South Africa.

Keywords: road accidents, South Africa, statistical modelling, trends

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Authors: Lei Zhang, Jean-Michel Ghidaglia, Anela Kumbaro

Abstract:

This work focuses on numerical simulation of two-phase flows based on the bi-fluid six-equation model widely used in many industrial areas, such as nuclear power plant safety analysis. A pressure-based numerical method is adopted in our studies due to the fact that in two-phase flows, it is common to have a large range of Mach numbers because of the mixture of liquid and gas, and density-based solvers experience stiffness problems as well as a loss of accuracy when approaching the low Mach number limit. This work extends the semi-implicit pressure solver in the nuclear component CUPID code, where the governing equations are solved on unstructured grids with co-located variables to accommodate complicated geometries. A conservative version of the solver is developed in order to capture exactly the shock in one-phase flows, and is extended to two-phase situations. An inter-facial pressure term is added to the bi-fluid model to make the system hyperbolic and to establish a well-posed mathematical problem that will allow us to obtain convergent solutions with refined meshes. The ability of the numerical method to treat phase appearance and disappearance as well as the behavior of the scheme at low Mach numbers will be demonstrated through several numerical results. Finally, inter-facial mass and heat transfer models are included to deal with situations when mass and energy transfer between phases is important, and associated industrial numerical benchmarks with tabulated EOS (equations of state) for fluids are performed.

Keywords: two-phase flows, numerical simulation, bi-fluid model, unstructured grids, phase appearance and disappearance

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Authors: Zeytu G. Asfaw, Serkalem K. Abrha, Demisew G. Degefu

Abstract:

Background: HIV/AIDS remains a major public health problem in Ethiopia and heavily affecting people of productive and reproductive age. We aimed to compare the performance of Parametric Survival Analysis and Bayesian Survival Analysis using simulations and in a real dataset application focused on determining predictors of HIV patient survival. Methods: A Parametric Survival Models - Exponential, Weibull, Log-normal, Log-logistic, Gompertz and Generalized gamma distributions were considered. Simulation study was carried out with two different algorithms that were informative and noninformative priors. A retrospective cohort study was implemented for HIV infected patients under Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy in Alamata General Hospital, North Ethiopia. Results: A total of 320 HIV patients were included in the study where 52.19% females and 47.81% males. According to Kaplan-Meier survival estimates for the two sex groups, females has shown better survival time in comparison with their male counterparts. The median survival time of HIV patients was 79 months. During the follow-up period 89 (27.81%) deaths and 231 (72.19%) censored individuals registered. The average baseline cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells count for HIV/AIDS patients were 126.01 but after a three-year antiretroviral therapy follow-up the average cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells counts were 305.74, which was quite encouraging. Age, functional status, tuberculosis screen, past opportunistic infection, baseline cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells, World Health Organization clinical stage, sex, marital status, employment status, occupation type, baseline weight were found statistically significant factors for longer survival of HIV patients. The standard error of all covariate in Bayesian log-normal survival model is less than the classical one. Hence, Bayesian survival analysis showed better performance than classical parametric survival analysis, when subjective data analysis was performed by considering expert opinions and historical knowledge about the parameters. Conclusions: Thus, HIV/AIDS patient mortality rate could be reduced through timely antiretroviral therapy with special care on the potential factors. Moreover, Bayesian log-normal survival model was preferable than the classical log-normal survival model for determining predictors of HIV patients survival.

Keywords: antiretroviral therapy (ART), Bayesian analysis, HIV, log-normal, parametric survival models

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