Search results for: financial time series

Authors: Ebru Ergi̇n, Funda Kutlu

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Emerging adulthood is a developmental period and the formation of identity is crucial task of emerging adults in this period. In this frame, the main aim of the study was to compare college students and full-time workers on emerging adulthood dimensions and identity statuses in relation to some demographic variables in Turkey. The participants of the study were university students studying in Ankara and the employees working full-time in Ankara and Bursa. The mean age of the sample was 20.84 (sd=1.84), ranging from 18 to 25. The measurement instruments of the study were Inventory of Dimensions of Emerging Adulthood and Extended Objective Measure of Ego Identity Status (EOMEIS-II). The participants’ data (N=313) were analyzed to test the research questions and hypotheses of the study. A series of MANOVA were performed to test the group differences for some demographic characteristics (such as: employee/student, male/female, living with family/living apart from family) on scores of emerging adulthood dimensions and identity status. The results of the MANOVAs indicated that students, females and participants who live apart from their families had higher scores on emerging adulthood dimensions. The results of the identity status scores differences depending on the demographic characteristic pointed out that there were a significant group differences for identity foreclosure identity scores between employees and students. Employees’ foreclosure identity scores were higher than students. Furthermore, the identity scores were differed significantly according to gender of the participants. Male participants had higher scores in moratorium and foreclosure identity and female participants have higher achievement identity scores than males. Also, the participants who live with their family scored higher in foreclosure identity and the participants who live apart from their family scored higher in identity achievement status.

Keywords: college students, emerging adulthood, full-time employees, identity statuses

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Authors: Le Linh, Truong Nguyen Luan Vu, Le Hieu Giang

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In this work, the IMC-PID controller cascaded filter based on Internal Model Control (IMC) scheme is systematically proposed for the simplified decoupling control system. The simplified decoupling is firstly introduced for multivariable processes by using coefficient matching to obtain a stable, proper, and causal simplified decoupler. Accordingly, transfer functions of decoupled apparent processes can be expressed as a set of n equivalent independent processes and then derived as a ratio of the original open-loop transfer function to the diagonal element of the dynamic relative gain array. The IMC-PID controller in series with filter is then directly employed to enhance the overall performance of the decoupling control system while avoiding difficulties arising from properties inherent to simplified decoupling. Some simulation studies are considered to demonstrate the simplicity and effectiveness of the proposed method. Simulations were conducted by tuning various controllers of the multivariate processes with multiple time delays. The results indicate that the proposed method consistently performs well with fast and well-balanced closed-loop time responses.

Keywords: coefficient matching method, internal model control (IMC) scheme, PID controller cascaded filter, simplified decoupler

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Authors: Olurankinse Felix

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Local governments in Ondo State Nigeria are the third tier of government saddled with the responsibility of providing governance and economic services at the grassroots. To be able to do this, the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria provided that a proportion of Federation Account be allocated to them in addition to their internally generated revenue. From the allocation and other incidental sources of revenue, the local governments are expected to provide basic infrastructures and other social amenities to better the lots of the rural dwellers. Nevertheless, local governments’ performances in terms of provision of social amenities are without questioning and quite not encouraging. Assessing the performance of local governments in this period of dearth and scarcity of resources is highly indispensable more so that the activities of local governments’ staff are bedeviled and characterized with fraud, corruption and mismanagement. Considering the direct impact of the consequences of their action on the living standard of the rural dwellers therefore calls for the need to evaluate their level of performances using capital budgeting approach. The paper being a time series study adopts the survey design. Data were obtained through secondary source mainly from the Annual financial statements and publication of approved budgets estimates covering the period of study (2008-2012). The use of ratio analysis was employed in analyzing the comparative level of performances of the local governments under study. The result of the study shows that less than 30% of the local governments were able to harness the budgetary allocation to provide amenities to the beneficiaries while majority of the local governments were involved in unethical conduct ranging from theft of fund, corruption, diversion of funds and extra-budgetary activities. Also, there is poor internally generated revenue to complement the statutory allocation and besides, the monthly withholding of larger portions of local government share by the state in the name of joint account were also seen as contributory factors. The study recommends the need for transparency and accountability in public fund management through the oversight function of the state house of assembly. Also local government should be made to be autonomous and independent of the state by jettisoning the idea of joint account.

Keywords: performance, transparency and accountability, capital budgeting, joint account, local government autonomy

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Authors: Raveena Naz

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The concept of ‘Corporate Social Responsibility’ (CSR) has often relied on firms thinking beyond their economic interest despite the larger debate of shareholder versus stakeholder interest. India gave legal recognition to CSR in the Companies Act, 2013 which promises better corporate governance. CSR in India is believed to be different for two reasons: the dominance of family business and the history of practice of social responsibility as a form of philanthropy (mainly among the family business). This paper problematises the actual structure of business houses in India and the role of CSR in India. When the law identifies each company as a separate business entity, the economics of institutions emphasizes the ‘business group’ consisting of a plethora of firms as the institutional organization of business. The capital owned or controlled by the family group is spread across the firms through the interholding (interlocked holding) structures. This creates peculiar implications for CSR legislation in India. The legislation sets criteria for individual firms to undertake liability of mandatory CSR if they are above a certain threshold. Within this framework, the largest family firms which are all part of family owned business groups top the CSR expenditure list. The interholding structures, common managers, auditors and series of related party transactions among these firms help the family to run the business as a ‘family business’ even when the shares are issued to the public. This kind of governance structure allows family owned business group to show mandatory compliance of CSR even when they actually spend much less than what is prescribed by law. This aspect of the family firms is not addressed by the CSR legislation in particular or corporate governance legislation in general in India. The paper illustrates this with an empirical study of one of the largest family owned business group in India which is well acclaimed for its CSR activities. The individual companies under the business group are identified, shareholding patterns explored, related party transactions investigated, common managing authorities are identified; and assets, liabilities and profit/loss accounting practices are analysed. The data has been mainly collected from mandatory disclosures in the annual reports and financial statements of the companies within the business group accessed from the official website of the ultimate controlling authority. The paper demonstrates how the business group through these series of shareholding network reduces its legally mandated CSR liability. The paper thus indicates the inadequacy of CSR legislation in India because the unit of compliance is an individual firm and it assumes that each firm is independent and only connected to each other through market dealings. The law does not recognize the inter-connections of firms in corporate governance structures of family owned business group and hence is inadequate in its design to effect the threshold level of CSR expenditure. This is the central argument of the paper.

Keywords: business group, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, family firm

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Authors: Salman Hussam

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As a monitoring system to manage employees' time and employers' business, this system (logger) will monitor the employees at work and will announce them if they spend too much time on social media (even if they are using proxy it will catch them). In this way, people will spend less time at work and more time with family.

Keywords: clients, employees, employers, family, monitoring, systems, social media, time

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Authors: Kwabena Asare, Ezekiel N. N. Nortey, Felix O. Mettle

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Modelling of extreme events has always been of interest in fields such as hydrology and meteorology. However, after the recent global financial crises, appropriate models for modelling of such rare events leading to these crises have become quite essential in the finance and risk management fields. This paper models the extreme values of the Ghana Stock Exchange All-Shares indices (2000-2010) by applying the Extreme Value Theory to fit a model to the tails of the daily stock returns data. A conditional approach of the EVT was preferred and hence an ARMA-GARCH model was fitted to the data to correct for the effects of autocorrelation and conditional heteroscedastic terms present in the returns series, before EVT method was applied. The Peak Over Threshold (POT) approach of the EVT, which fits a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model to excesses above a certain selected threshold, was employed. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters were obtained and the model’s goodness of fit was assessed graphically using Q-Q, P-P and density plots. The findings indicate that the GPD provides an adequate fit to the data of excesses. The size of the extreme daily Ghanaian stock market movements were then computed using the Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) risk measures at some high quantiles, based on the fitted GPD model.

Keywords: extreme value theory, expected shortfall, generalized pareto distribution, peak over threshold, value at risk

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Authors: Paradigm Shift

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In an overwhelmingly import oriented content bazaar of Arabian TV industry, Musalsalat stand unique in their indigenousness and mass popularity, being rivalled only by movies and football. The Arabic term ‘Musalsalat’ stands for drama series with episodes of 30-45 minutes duration; the format being close to Latin American Telenovela concept-clear cut stories with definitive endings that permit narrative closures. Traditionally Musalsalat were either situational comedies or religiously inspired. Present-day productions have started addressing historical, creative and socially progressive issues targeting the young and well-travelled audiences. Though these soaps get prime ratings throughout the year, it is during Ramadan, that they become a raving success in securing viewership. That Musalsalat have become paramount Ramadan programming is evident by their dominance on the grid and attracting heavy ad-spend. The number of Musalsalats produced specifically for Ramadan reached over 100 last year with Ramadan TV advertising amounting to USD1, 947bn constituting 21% of the total regional TV Adspend of USD 9,189bn.

Keywords: Musalsalat, drama, pan Arab, television

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Authors: Prince Ayodeji Yusuph

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Recapitalization process that has recently become an imperative process in the Nigerian Financial industry has implications for the survival of insurance sector, especially on their service delivery efficiency. This study therefore seeks to investigate the problem of inefficiency in the Nigerian Insurance market from the perspective of their cost structures. The study takes advantage of secondary data of financial reports of thirty randomly selected insurance firms which span over a period of ten years and applied transcendental logarithm model to evaluate their performance from the cost structures strategy. The results indicate that only large scale firms enjoy cost saving advantages. Twenty percent firms sampled belong to this category. The result suggests that premium income would contribute to insurance firm’s performance, only when a sound investment decisions are made.

Keywords: transcedental logarithm, cost structures, insurance firms and efficiency, Nigeria

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Authors: Abdulkarim Yusuf

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Motivation: A crucial but difficult goal for governments and policymakers in Nigeria in recent years has been the sustainability of economic growth. This goal must be accomplished by regulating or lowering greenhouse gas emissions, which calls for switching to a low- or zero-carbon production system. The lack of in-depth empirical studies on the environmental impact of socioeconomic variables on Nigeria and a number of unresolved issues from earlier research is what led to the current study. Objective: This study fills an important empirical gap by investigating the existence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis and the long and short-run dynamic impact of socioeconomic variables on ecological sustainability in Nigeria. Data and method: Annual time series data covering the period 1980 to 2020 and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag technique in the presence of structural breaks were adopted for this study. Results: The empirical findings support the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for Nigeria in the long and short run. Energy consumption and total import exacerbate environmental deterioration in the long and short run, whereas total export improves environmental quality in the long and short run. Financial development, which contributed to a conspicuous decrease in the level of environmental destruction in the long run, escalated it in the short run. In contrast, urbanization caused a significant increase in environmental damage in the long run but motivated a decrease in biodiversity loss in the short run. Implications: The government, policymakers, and all energy stakeholders should take additional measures to ensure the implementation and diversification of energy sources to accommodate more renewable energy sources that emit less carbon in order to promote efficiency in Nigeria's production processes and lower carbon emissions. In order to promote the production and trade of environmentally friendly goods, they should also revise and strengthen environmental policies. With affordable, dependable, and sustainable energy use for higher productivity and inclusive growth, Nigeria will be able to achieve its long-term development goals of good health and wellbeing.

Keywords: economic growth, energy consumption, environmental degradation, environmental Kuznets curve, urbanization, Nigeria

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Authors: Amit Kumar Bardhan, Barnali Nag, Chandra Sekhar Mishra

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Microfinance is considered as one of the key drivers of financial inclusion and pro-poor financial growth. Microfinance in India became popular through Self Help Group (SHG) movement initiated by NABARD. In terms of outreach and loan portfolio, SHG Bank Linkage programme (SHG-BLP) has emerged as the largest microfinance initiative in the world. The success of financial inclusion lies in the successful implementation of SHG-BLP. SHGs are generally promoted by social welfare organisations like NGOs, welfare societies, government agencies, Co-operatives etc. and even banks are also involved in SHG formation. Thus, the pro-poor implementation of the scheme largely depends on the credibility of the SHG Promoting Institutions (SHPIs). The rural poor lack education, skills and financial literacy and hence need continuous support and proper training right from planning to implementation. In this study, we have made an attempt to inspect the reasons behind low penetration of SHG financing to the poorest of the poor both from demand and supply side perspective. Banks, SHPIs, and SHGs are three key essential stakeholders in SHG-BLP programmes. All of them have a vital role in programme implementation. The objective of this paper is to find out the drivers and hurdles in the path of financial inclusion through SHG-BLP and the role of SHPIs in reaching out to the ultra poor. We try to address questions like 'what are the challenges faced by SHPIs in targeting the poor?' and, 'what are factors behind the low credit linkage of SHGs?' Our work is based on a qualitative study of SHG programmes in semi-urban towns in the states of West Bengal and Odisha in India. Data are collected through unstructured questionnaire and in-depth interview from the members of SHGs, SHPIs and designated banks. The study provides some valuable insights about the programme and a comprehensive view of problems and challenges faced by SGH, SHPIs, and banks. On the basis of our understanding from the survey, some findings and policy recommendations that seem relevant are: increasing level of non-performing assets (NPA) of commercial banks and wilful default in expectation of loan waiver and subsidy are the prime reasons behind low rate of credit linkage of SHGs. Regular changes in SHG schemes and no incentive for after linkage follow up results in dysfunctional SHGs. Government schemes are mostly focused on creation of SHG and less on livelihood promotion. As a result, in spite of increasing (YoY) trend of number of SHGs promoted, there is no real impact on welfare growth. Government and other SHPIs should focus on resource based SHG promotion rather only increasing the number of SHGs.

Keywords: financial inclusion, inclusive growth, microfinance, Self-Help Group (SHG), Self-Help Group Promoting Institution (SHPI)

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Authors: Manoela Cabo da Silva, Elton Fernandes, Ricardo Pacheco, Heloisa Pires

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This study examined cointegration and causal relationships between economic growth and regular domestic and international passenger air transport in Brazil. Total passengers embarked and disembarked were used as a proxy for air transport activity and gross domestic product (GDP) as a proxy for economic development. The test spanned the period from 2000 to 2015 for domestic passenger traffic and from 1995 to 2015 for international traffic. The results confirm the hypothesis that there is cointegration between passenger traffic series and economic development, showing a bi-directional Granger causal relationship between domestic traffic and economic development and unidirectional influence by economic growth on international passenger air transport demand. Variance decomposition of the series showed that domestic air transport was far more important than international transport to promoting economic development in Brazil.

Keywords: air passenger transport, cointegration, economic growth, GDP, Granger causality

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Authors: Henry Ataburo, Dominic Essuman, Emmanuel Kwabena Anin

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Recent trends of catastrophic events, such as the Covid-19 pandemic, the Suez Canal blockage, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Israel-Hamas conflict, and the climate change crisis, continue to devastate supply chains and the broader society. Prior authors have advocated for a simultaneous pursuit of resilience and sustainability as crucial for navigating these challenges. Nevertheless, the relationship between resilience and sustainability is a rather complex one: resilience and sustainability are considered unrelated, substitutes, or complements. Scholars also suggest that different firms prioritize resilience and sustainability differently for varied strategic reasons. However, we know little about whether, how, and when these choices produce different typologies of firms to explain differences in financial and market performance outcomes. This research draws inferences from the systems configuration approach to organizational fit to contend that a taxonomy of firms may emerge based on how firms configure resilience and environmental sustainability. The study further examines the effects of these taxonomies on financial and market performance in differing transportation disruption conditions. Resilience is operationalized as a firm’s ability to adjust current operations, structure, knowledge, and resources in response to disruptions, whereas environmental sustainability is operationalized as the extent to which a firm deploys resources judiciously and keeps the ecological impact of its operations to the barest minimum. Using primary data from 199 firms in Ghana and cluster analysis as an analytical tool, the study identifies four clusters of firms based on how they prioritize resilience and sustainability: Cluster 1 - "strong, moderate resilience, high sustainability firms," Cluster 2 - "sigh resilience, high sustainability firms," Cluster 3 - "high resilience, strong, moderate sustainability firms," and Cluster 4 - "weak, moderate resilience, strong, moderate sustainability firms". In addition, ANOVA and regression analysis revealed the following findings: Only clusters 1 and 2 were significantly associated with both market and financial performance. Under high transportation disruption conditions, cluster 1 firms excel better in market performance, whereas cluster 2 firms excel better in financial performance. Conversely, under low transportation disruption conditions, cluster 1 firms excel better in financial performance, whereas cluster 2 firms excel better in market performance. The study provides theoretical and empirical evidence of how resilience and environmental sustainability can be configured to achieve specific performance objectives under different disruption conditions.

Keywords: resilience, environmental sustainability, developing economy, transportation disruption

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Authors: Felipe M. de Freitas, Ícaro V. Soares, Lucas L. L. Fortes, Sandro T. M. Gonçalves, Úrsula D. C. Resende

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There is a dispersed energy in Radio Frequencies (RF) that can be reused to power electronics circuits such as: sensors, actuators, identification devices, among other systems, without wire connections or a battery supply requirement. In this context, there are different types of energy harvesting systems, including rectennas, coil systems, graphene and new materials. A secondary step of an energy harvesting system is the rectification of the collected signal which may be carried out, for example, by the combination of one or more Schottky diodes connected in series or shunt. In the case of a rectenna-based system, for instance, the diode used must be able to receive low power signals at ultra-high frequencies. Therefore, it is required low values of series resistance, junction capacitance and potential barrier voltage. Due to this low-power condition, voltage multiplier configurations are used such as voltage doublers or modified bridge converters. Lowpass filter (LPF) at the input, DC output filter, and a resistive load are also commonly used in the rectifier design. The electronic circuits projects are commonly analyzed through simulation in SPICE (Simulation Program with Integrated Circuit Emphasis) environment. Despite the remarkable potential of SPICE-based simulators for complex circuit modeling and analysis of quasi-static electromagnetic fields interaction, i.e., at low frequency, these simulators are limited and they cannot model properly applications of microwave hybrid circuits in which there are both, lumped elements as well as distributed elements. This work proposes, therefore, the electromagnetic modelling of electronic components in order to create models that satisfy the needs for simulations of circuits in ultra-high frequencies, with application in rectifiers coupled to antennas, as in energy harvesting systems, that is, in rectennas. For this purpose, the numerical method FDTD (Finite-Difference Time-Domain) is applied and SPICE computational tools are used for comparison. In the present work, initially the Ampere-Maxwell equation is applied to the equations of current density and electric field within the FDTD method and its circuital relation with the voltage drop in the modeled component for the case of lumped parameter using the FDTD (Lumped-Element Finite-Difference Time-Domain) proposed in for the passive components and the one proposed in for the diode. Next, a rectifier is built with the essential requirements for operating rectenna energy harvesting systems and the FDTD results are compared with experimental measurements.

Keywords: energy harvesting system, LE-FDTD, rectenna, rectifier, wireless power systems

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Authors: Sunny Ewankhiwimen Aigbomian

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Time, is a scarce resource and in everything we do, time is required to accomplish any given task. The need for this presentation is predicated on the way majority of Nigerian especially in the public sector operators see “Time Management”. Time as resources cannot be regained if lost or managed badly. As a significant aspect of human life it should be handled with diligence and utmost seriousness if the public sector is to function as a coordinated entity. In our homes, private life and offices, we schedule different things to ensure that some things do not go the unexpected. When it comes to service delivery on the part of government, it ought to be more serious because government is all about effect and efficient service delivery and “Time” is a significant variable necessary to successful accomplishment. The need for Nigerian government to re-examine time management in her public sector with a view of repositioning the sector to be able to compete well with other public sectors in the world. The peculiarity of Time management in Public Sector in Nigerian context as examined and some useful recommendations of immerse assistance proffered.

Keywords: Nigeria, public sector, time management, task

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Authors: Jemima C. A. Sumboh

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Given the urgency and consensus for countries to move towards Universal Health Coverage (UHC), health financing systems need to be accurately and consistently monitored to provide valuable data to inform policy and practice. Most of the indicators for monitoring UHC, particularly catastrophe and impoverishment, are established based on the impact of out-of-pocket health payments (OOPHP) on households’ living standards, collected through varied household surveys. These surveys, however, vary substantially in survey methods such as the length of the recall period or the number of items included in the survey questionnaire or the farming of questions, potentially influencing the level of OOPHP. Using different survey instruments can provide inaccurate, inconsistent, erroneous and misleading estimates of UHC, subsequently influencing wrong policy decisions. Using data from a household budget survey conducted by the Navrongo Health Research Center in Ghana from May 2017 to December 2018, this study intends to explore the potential implications of using surveys with varied levels of disaggregation of OOPHP data on estimates of financial risk protection. The household budget survey, structured around food and non-food expenditure, compared three OOPHP measuring instruments: Version I (existing questions used to measure OOPHP in household budget surveys), Version II (new questions developed through benchmarking the existing Classification of the Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP) OOPHP questions in household surveys) and Version III (existing questions used to measure OOPHP in health surveys integrated into household budget surveys- for this, the demographic and health surveillance (DHS) health survey was used). Version I, II and III contained 11, 44, and 56 health items, respectively. However, the choice of recall periods was held constant across versions. The sample size for Version I, II and III were 930, 1032 and 1068 households, respectively. Financial risk protection will be measured based on the catastrophic and impoverishment methodologies using STATA 15 and Adept Software for each version. It is expected that findings from this study will present valuable contributions to the repository of knowledge on standardizing survey instruments to obtain estimates of financial risk protection that are valid and consistent.

Keywords: Ghana, household budget surveys, measuring financial risk protection, out-of-pocket health payments, survey instruments, universal health coverage

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Authors: İlhami Karahanoglu, Oguz Ceylan

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As its well-known definitions; systemic risk refers to whole economic system down-turn movement even collapse together in very severe cases. In fact, it points out the contagion effects of the defaults. Such a risk is can be depicted with the famous Chinese game of falling domino stones. During and after the Bear & Sterns and Lehman Brothers cases, it was well understood that there is a very strong effect of systemic risk in financial services sector. In this study, we concentrate on the existence of systemic risk in Turkish Banking Sector based upon the Halkbank Case during the end month of 2013; there was a political turmoil in Turkey in which the close relatives of the upper politicians were involved in illegal trading activities. In that operation, the CEO of Halkbank was also arrested and in investigation, Halkbank was considered as part of such illegal actions. That operation had an impact on Halkbanks stock value. The Halkbank stock value during that time interval decreased remarkably, the distributional profile of stock return changed and became more volatile as well as more skewed. In this study, the daily returns of 5 leading banks in Turkish banking sector were used to obtain 48 return distributions (for each month, 90-days-back stock value returns are used) of 5 banks for the period 12/2011-12/2013 (pre operation period) and 12/2013-12/2015 (post operation period). When those distributions are compared with timely manner, interestingly; the distribution of the 5 other leading banks in Turkey, public or private, had also distribution profiles which was different from the past 2011-2013 period just like Halkbank. Those 5 big banks, whose stock values are monitored with sub index in Istanbul stock exchange (BIST) as BN10, had more skewed distribution just following the Halkbank stock return movement during the post operation period, with lover mean value and as well higher volatility. In addition, the correlation between the stock value return distributions of the leading banks after Halkbank case, where the returns are more skewed to the left, increased (which is measured in monthly base before and after the operation). The dependence between those banks was stronger under the case where the stock values were falling compared with the normal market condition. Such distributional effect of stock returns between the leading banks in Turkey, which is valid for down sub-market (financial/banking sector) condition, can be evaluated as an evidence for the existence of contagious effect and systemic risk.

Keywords: financial risk, systemic risk, banking sector, return distribution, dependency structure

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Authors: Husni Mohd Radzi, Lilie Zahara Ramly, Sapora Sipon, Salhah Abdullah

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Malaysia have been experiencing series of huge floods all around the country for the past decades despide planned development done by local authorities. The floods incurred due to factors like natural climate change or man-made disaster. Floods have caused a lot of damages, destructions and losses in term of infrastructure, financial implications and physical health. However, other damaging aspect was not being given much attention are the psychological need of the flood victim. The traumatic impact from the natural disaster like floods may cause serious psychological and spiritual deterioration. Many flood relief shelters in the past did not provide counseling services for flood victims to consult, and as a result, it contributes to added stress among the flood victims, as the issue were not being addressed. Some studies indicates that flood victims did not look for counseling service being offered. A total of 257 flood victim was involved in this study. Main area of the study was Kg Bukit Changgang, Kg. Rancangan Tanah Belia, Kg. Labohan Dagang and Kg.Olak Lempit in Kuala Langat, Selangor. The flood victims have responded to the survey given and the data was analyze using SPSS for descriptive information and other measures. At least 13 victims were reported to have experienced moderate to severe level of stress and anxiety over the flood disaster incidents and a total of 88 respondents admitted to have at least thought and consider getting counseling service.

Keywords: perception, acceptance towards counseling, counseling service for flood victim, disaster

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Authors: Johanna Renny Octavia, Kamila Okta Saarah

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Smartphone nowadays is widely used by many people all over the world. However, people with vision impairment may experience difficulties that interfere with the proper usage of the smartphone. In Indonesia, the population of visually impaired is about 13 million people (estimated 285 million people worldwide). There are a number of mobile applications developed to enhance the use of smartphone by visually impaired. This paper discusses the usability evaluation of a mobile application, namely Ray Vision, designed to help visually impaired in using smartphone. A series of usability testing with a number of Indonesian visually impaired revealed 28 usability problems in the mobile application that led to 14 design recommendations. The redesigned application was then re-evaluated through another usability testing series. The results showed that all five usability criteria assessed were increased (usefulness by 13%, effectiveness by 27%, efficiency by 27%, satisfaction by 23%, and learnability by 12%). The System Usability Score (SUS) was also increased by 14.92%.

Keywords: mobile application, smartphone, usability evaluation, vision impaired

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Authors: Claudineia Brazil, Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Luciane Teresa Salvi, Rafael Haag

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Renewable energy sources are dependent on climatic variability, so for adequate energy planning, observations of the meteorological variables are required, preferably representing long-period series. Despite the scientific and technological advances that meteorological measurement systems have undergone in the last decades, there is still a considerable lack of meteorological observations that form series of long periods. The reanalysis is a system of assimilation of data prepared using general atmospheric circulation models, based on the combination of data collected at surface stations, ocean buoys, satellites and radiosondes, allowing the production of long period data, for a wide gamma. The third generation of reanalysis data emerged in 2010, among them is the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), these data have a spatial resolution of 0.50 x 0.50. In order to overcome these difficulties, it aims to evaluate the performance of solar radiation estimation through alternative data bases, such as data from Reanalysis and from meteorological satellites that satisfactorily meet the absence of observations of solar radiation at global and/or regional level. The results of the analysis of the solar radiation data indicated that the reanalysis data of the CFSR model presented a good performance in relation to the observed data, with determination coefficient around 0.90. Therefore, it is concluded that these data have the potential to be used as an alternative source in locations with no seasons or long series of solar radiation, important for the evaluation of solar energy potential.

Keywords: climate, reanalysis, renewable energy, solar radiation

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Authors: Mahmoud Reza Hosseini

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The universe is in a continuous expansion process, resulting in the reduction of its density and temperature. Also, by extrapolating back from its current state, the universe at its early times has been studied known as the big bang theory. According to this theory, moments after creation, the universe was an extremely hot and dense environment. However, its rapid expansion due to nuclear fusion led to a reduction in its temperature and density. This is evidenced through the cosmic microwave background and the universe structure at a large scale. However, extrapolating back further from this early state reaches singularity which cannot be explained by modern physics and the big bang theory is no longer valid. In addition, one can expect a nonuniform energy distribution across the universe from a sudden expansion. However, highly accurate measurements reveal an equal temperature mapping across the universe which is contradictory to the big bang principles. To resolve this issue, it is believed that cosmic inflation occurred at the very early stages of the birth of the universe According to the cosmic inflation theory, the elements which formed the universe underwent a phase of exponential growth due to the existence of a large cosmological constant. The inflation phase allows the uniform distribution of energy so that an equal maximum temperature could be achieved across the early universe. Also, the evidence of quantum fluctuations of this stage provides a means for studying the types of imperfections the universe would begin with. Although well-established theories such as cosmic inflation and the big bang together provide a comprehensive picture of the early universe and how it evolved into its current state, they are unable to address the singularity paradox at the time of universe creation. Therefore, a practical model capable of describing how the universe was initiated is needed. This research series aims at addressing the singularity issue by introducing an energy conversion mechanism. This is accomplished by establishing a state of energy called a “neutral state”, with an energy level which is referred to as “base energy” capable of converting into other states. Although it follows the same principles, the unique quanta state of the base energy allows it to be distinguishable from other states and have a uniform distribution at the ground level. Although the concept of base energy can be utilized to address the singularity issue, to establish a complete picture, the origin of the base energy should be also identified. This matter is the subject of the first study in the series “A Conceptual Study for Investigating the Creation of Energy and Understanding the Properties of Nothing” which is discussed in detail. Therefore, the proposed concept in this research series provides a road map for enhancing our understating of the universe's creation from nothing and its evolution and discusses the possibility of base energy as one of the main building blocks of this universe.

Keywords: big bang, cosmic inflation, birth of universe, energy creation

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Authors: Siddharth Rana

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As we know so far, there are 3 dimensions that we are capable of interpreting and perceiving, and there is a 4th dimension, called time, about which we don’t know much yet. We, as humans, live in the 4th dimension, not the 3rd. We travel 3 dimensionally but cannot yet travel 4 dimensionally; perhaps if we could, then visiting the past and the future would be like climbing a mountain or going down a road. So far, we humans are not even capable of imagining any higher dimensions than the three dimensions in which we can travel. We are the beings of the 4th dimension; we are the beings of time; that is why we can travel 3 dimensionally; however, if, say, there were beings of the 5th dimension, then they would easily be able to travel 4 dimensionally, i.e., they could travel in the 4th dimension as well. Beings of the 5th dimension can easily time travel. However, beings of the 4th dimension, like us, cannot time travel because we live in a 4-D world, traveling 3 dimensionally. That means to ever do time travel, we just need to go to a higher dimension and not only perceive it but also be able to travel in it. However, traveling to the past is not very possible, unlike traveling to the future. Even if traveling to the past were possible, it would be very unlikely that an event in the past would be changed. In this paper, some approaches are provided to define time, our movement in time to the future, some aspects of time travel using dimensions, and how we can perceive a higher dimension.

Keywords: time, dimensions, String theory, relativity

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Authors: Ani Thomas

Abstract:

Every narrative is a temporal construct. Every narrative creates a qualitative experience of time for the viewer. The paper argues for the concept of a qualified time that emerges from the interaction between the narrative and the audience. The paper also challenges the conventional understanding of narrative time as either story time, real time or discourse time. Looking at narratives through the medium of Cinema, the study examines how narratives create and manipulate duration or durée, the qualitative experience of time as theorized by Henri Bergson. The paper further analyzes how Cinema and, by extension, narratives are nothing but Durée and the filmmaker, the artist of durée, who shape and manipulate the perception and emotions of the viewer through the manipulation and construction of durée. The paper draws on cinematic works to look at the techniques to demonstrate how filmmakers use, for example, editing, sound, compositional and production narratives etc., to create various modes of durée that challenge, amplify or unsettle the viewer’s sense of time. Bringing together the Viewer’s durée and exploring its interaction with the narrative construct, the paper explores the emergence of the new qualitative time, the narrative durée, that defines the audience experience.

Keywords: cinema, time, bergson, duree

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Authors: Hassan Medaghri Alaoui

Abstract:

The accounting and financial reporting system in use today is over 500 years old and has failed to capture the new knowledge and innovation economy in which intangible assets are becoming increasingly valuable. Yet, there has been a growing acknowledgment among the research community as to the relevance of intellectual capital as a major enhancer of an organization’s well-being. Much of the research provides great support for how the IC is instrumental in determining financial and stock performances. As far as we know, this article is one of the earliest exploratory attempts to examine the intellectual capital impact on the corporate performance of the IT sector in Morocco. The purpose of this study is to verify empirically the influence of intellectual capital on firm performance. We have undertaken, over a fifteen-year period, a longitudinal (2005–2019) case study of a prominent payment-solutions company based in a developing economy with global operations.

Keywords: intellectual capital, IT sector, measuring intellectual capital, modified value added intellectual capital coefficient, Morocco

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Authors: M. Sai Veerendra

Abstract:

Today, money laundering (ML) poses a serious threat not only to financial institutions but also to the nation. This criminal activity is becoming more and more sophisticated and seems to have moved from the cliché of drug trafficking to financing terrorism and surely not forgetting personal gain. Most of the financial institutions internationally have been implementing anti-money laundering solutions (AML) to fight investment fraud activities. However, traditional investigative techniques consume numerous man-hours. Recently, data mining approaches have been developed and are considered as well-suited techniques for detecting ML activities. Within the scope of a collaboration project on developing a new data mining solution for AML Units in an international investment bank in Ireland, we survey recent data mining approaches for AML. In this paper, we present not only these approaches but also give an overview on the important factors in building data mining solutions for AML activities.

Keywords: data mining, clustering, money laundering, anti-money laundering solutions

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Authors: Marko Čular

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to raise general awareness of transparency importance for audit firms and for audit services’ users. This paper analyses transparency of audit firms that audited financial statements of listed companies, for year 2011 and 2012. We use this two years because in the meantime Code of Ethics for Professional Accountants has been adopted. This paper investigates whether transparency reports of audit firms are in accordance with the Croatian Audit Act and whether there is a difference on transparency in observed years. For this paper, quality index of transparency report and financial indicators of audit firms are used to get conclusion about condition of audit firms transparency reporting. Results of our study indicate that audit firms are not fully transparent, looking for both years. Transparency of audit firms in 2012 has improved significantly, compared with transparency in 2011.

Keywords: transparency report, index quality of transparency report, Croatian audit act, code of ethics for professional accountants

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Authors: Jin Huang

Abstract:

Research shows that asset-building policies have positive financial and non-financial impacts on children and families. To promote the development of asset-building policies for children in China, it is important to understand the current status of family savings for children. We use the data from the 2016 China Family Panel Studies and show only 16% of families have savings designated for children’s future education. Families with advantaged socioeconomic backgrounds are more likely to save and also save more for their children than their counterparts with disadvantaged backgrounds. Without large-scale and progressive policy interventions, families with disadvantaged backgrounds are less likely to build assets for children. Policy and practice implications for family social workers are discussed.

Keywords: assets, asset building, child, china, education, family, savings

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Authors: Yousef Abu Nahleh, Arun Kumar, Fugen Daver, Reham Al-Hindawi

Abstract:

Despite the availability of natural disaster related time series data for last 110 years, there is no forecasting tool available to humanitarian relief organizations to determine forecasts for emergency logistics planning. This study develops a forecasting tool based on identifying probability of disaster for each country in the world by using decision tree modeling. Further, the determination of aggregate forecasts leads to efficient pre-disaster planning. Based on the research findings, the relief agencies can optimize the various resources allocation in emergency logistics planning.

Keywords: decision tree modeling, forecasting, humanitarian relief, emergency supply chain

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Authors: Ayşen Edirneligil, Mehmet Mucuk

Abstract:

In developing countries, one of the most important restrictions about the economic growth is the lack of national savings which are supposed to finance the investments. In order to overcome this restriction and achieve the higher rate of economic growth by increasing the level of output, countries choose the external borrowing. However, there is a dispute in the literature over the correlation between external debt and economic growth. The aim of this study is to examine the effects of external debt on Turkish economic growth by using VAR analysis with the quarterly data over the period of 2002:01-2014:04. In this respect, Johansen Cointegration Test, Impulse- Response Function and Variance Decomposition Tests will be used for analyses. Empirical findings show that there is no cointegration in the long run.

Keywords: external debt, economic growth, Turkish economy, time series analysis

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Authors: Marijana Ivanov, Roman Šubić

Abstract:

The single rulebook together with the Single Supervisory Mechanism and the Single Resolution Mechanism - as two main pillars of the banking union, represent important steps towards completing the Economic and Monetary Union. It should provide a consistent application of common rules and administrative standards for supervision, recovery and resolution of banks – with the final aim that a former practice of the bail-out is replaced with the bail-in system through which bank failures will be resolved by their own funds, i.e. with minimal costs for taxpayers and real economy. It has to reduce the financial fragmentation recorded in the years of crisis as the result of divergent behaviors in risk premium, lending activities, and interest rates between the core and the periphery. In addition, it should strengthen the effectiveness of monetary transmission channels, in particular the credit channels and overflows of liquidity on the single interbank money market. However, contrary to all the positive expectations related to the future functioning of the banking union, low and unbalanced economic growth rates remain a challenge for the maintenance of financial stability in the euro area, and this problem cannot be resolved just by a single supervision. In many countries bank assets exceed their GDP by several times, and large banks are still a matter of concern because of their systemic importance for individual countries and the euro zone as a whole. The creation of the SSM and the SRM should increase transparency of the banking system in the euro area and restore confidence that have been disturbed during the depression. It would provide a new opportunity to strengthen economic and financial systems in the peripheral countries. On the other hand, there is a potential threat that future focus of the ECB, resolution mechanism and other relevant institutions will be extremely oriented to the large and significant banks (whereby one half of them operate in the core and most important euro area countries), while it is questionable to what extent the common resolution funds will be used for rescue of less important institutions.

Keywords: banking union, financial integration, single supervision mechanism (SSM)

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Authors: Katyana A. Vert-Pre, James T. Thorson, Thomas Trancart, Eric Feunteun

Abstract:

In marine ecosystems, spatial and temporal species structure is an important component of ecosystems’ response to anthropological and environmental factors. Although spatial distribution patterns and fish temporal series of abundance have been studied in the past, little research has been allocated to the joint dynamic spatio-temporal functional patterns in marine ecosystems and their use in multispecies management and conservation. Each species represents a function to the ecosystem, and the distribution of these species might not be random. A heterogeneous functional distribution will lead to a more resilient ecosystem to external factors. Applying a Vector-Autoregressive Spatio-Temporal (VAST) model for count data, we estimate the spatio-temporal distribution, shift in time, and abundance of 140 species of the Eastern English Chanel, Bay of Biscay and Mediterranean Sea. From the model outputs, we determined spatio-temporal clusters, calculating p-values for hierarchical clustering via multiscale bootstrap resampling. Then, we designed a functional map given the defined cluster. We found that the species distribution within the ecosystem was not random. Indeed, species evolved in space and time in clusters. Moreover, these clusters remained similar over time deriving from the fact that species of a same cluster often shifted in sync, keeping the overall structure of the ecosystem similar overtime. Knowing the co-existing species within these clusters could help with predicting data-poor species distribution and abundance. Further analysis is being performed to assess the ecological functions represented in each cluster.

Keywords: cluster distribution shift, European marine ecosystems, functional distribution, spatio-temporal model

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