Search results for: statistical approach
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 16643

Search results for: statistical approach

15533 Route Planning for Optimization Approach PSO_GA Sharing System (Scooter Sharing-Public Transportation) with Hybrid Optimization Approach PSO_GA

Authors: Mohammad Ali Farrokhpour

Abstract:

In the current decade and sustainable transportation systems, scooter sharing has attracted widespread attention as an environmentally-friendly means of public transportation which can help develop public transportation. The combination of scooters and subway in the area of sustainable transportation systems can provide a great many opportunities for developing access to public transportation. Of the challenges which have arisen and initiated discussions of interest about the implementation of a scooter-subway system to replace personal vehicles is the issue of routing in the aforementioned system. This has been chosen as the main subject of the present paper. Thus, the present paper provides an account for routing in this system. Because the issue of routing includes multiple factors such as time, costs, traffic, green spaces, etc., the above-mentioned problem is considered to be a multi-objective NP-hard optimization problem. For this purpose, the hybrid optimization approach of PSO-GA has been put forward in the present paper for the provided answers to be of higher accuracy and validity than those of normal optimization methods. The results obtained from modeling and problem solving for the case study in the MATLAB software are indicative of the efficiency and desirability of the model and the proposed approach for solving the model

Keywords: route planning, scooter sharing, public transportation, sharing system

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15532 Verification of Sr-90 Determination in Water and Spruce Needles Samples Using IAEA-TEL-2016-04 ALMERA Proficiency Test Samples

Authors: S. Visetpotjanakit, N. Nakkaew

Abstract:

Determination of 90Sr in environmental samples has been widely developed with several radioanlytical methods and radiation measurement techniques since 90Sr is one of the most hazardous radionuclides produced from nuclear reactors. Liquid extraction technique using di-(2-ethylhexyl) phosphoric acid (HDEHP) to separate and purify 90Y and Cherenkov counting using liquid scintillation counter to determine 90Y in secular equilibrium to 90Sr was developed and performed at our institute, the Office of Atoms for Peace. The approach is inexpensive, non-laborious, and fast to analyse 90Sr in environmental samples. To validate our analytical performance for the accurate and precise criteria, determination of 90Sr using the IAEA-TEL-2016-04 ALMERA proficiency test samples were performed for statistical evaluation. The experiment used two spiked tap water samples and one naturally contaminated spruce needles sample from Austria collected shortly after the Chernobyl accident. Results showed that all three analyses were successfully passed in terms of both accuracy and precision criteria, obtaining “Accepted” statuses. The two water samples obtained the measured results of 15.54 Bq/kg and 19.76 Bq/kg, which had relative bias 5.68% and -3.63% for the Maximum Acceptable Relative Bias (MARB) 15% and 20%, respectively. And the spruce needles sample obtained the measured results of 21.04 Bq/kg, which had relative bias 23.78% for the MARB 30%. These results confirm our analytical performance of 90Sr determination in water and spruce needles samples using the same developed method.

Keywords: ALMERA proficiency test, Cerenkov counting, determination of 90Sr, environmental samples

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15531 Stacking Ensemble Approach for Combining Different Methods in Real Estate Prediction

Authors: Sol Girouard, Zona Kostic

Abstract:

A home is often the largest and most expensive purchase a person makes. Whether the decision leads to a successful outcome will be determined by a combination of critical factors. In this paper, we propose a method that efficiently handles all the factors in residential real estate and performs predictions given a feature space with high dimensionality while controlling for overfitting. The proposed method was built on gradient descent and boosting algorithms and uses a mixed optimizing technique to improve the prediction power. Usually, a single model cannot handle all the cases thus our approach builds multiple models based on different subsets of the predictors. The algorithm was tested on 3 million homes across the U.S., and the experimental results demonstrate the efficiency of this approach by outperforming techniques currently used in forecasting prices. With everyday changes on the real estate market, our proposed algorithm capitalizes from new events allowing more efficient predictions.

Keywords: real estate prediction, gradient descent, boosting, ensemble methods, active learning, training

Procedia PDF Downloads 259
15530 Supplier Risk Management: A Multivariate Statistical Modelling and Portfolio Optimization Based Approach for Supplier Delivery Performance Development

Authors: Jiahui Yang, John Quigley, Lesley Walls

Abstract:

In this paper, the authors develop a stochastic model regarding the investment in supplier delivery performance development from a buyer’s perspective. The authors propose a multivariate model through a Multinomial-Dirichlet distribution within an Empirical Bayesian inference framework, representing both the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in deliveries. A closed form solution is obtained and the lower and upper bound for both optimal investment level and expected profit under uncertainty are derived. The theoretical properties provide decision makers with useful insights regarding supplier delivery performance improvement problems where multiple delivery statuses are involved. The authors also extend the model from a single supplier investment into a supplier portfolio, using a Lagrangian method to obtain a theoretical expression for an optimal investment level and overall expected profit. The model enables a buyer to know how the marginal expected profit/investment level of each supplier changes with respect to the budget and which supplier should be invested in when additional budget is available. An application of this model is illustrated in a simulation study. Overall, the main contribution of this study is to provide an optimal investment decision making framework for supplier development, taking into account multiple delivery statuses as well as multiple projects.

Keywords: decision making, empirical bayesian, portfolio optimization, supplier development, supply chain management

Procedia PDF Downloads 275
15529 Crashworthiness Optimization of an Automotive Front Bumper in Composite Material

Authors: S. Boria

Abstract:

In the last years, the crashworthiness of an automotive body structure can be improved, since the beginning of the design stage, thanks to the development of specific optimization tools. It is well known how the finite element codes can help the designer to investigate the crashing performance of structures under dynamic impact. Therefore, by coupling nonlinear mathematical programming procedure and statistical techniques with FE simulations, it is possible to optimize the design with reduced number of analytical evaluations. In engineering applications, many optimization methods which are based on statistical techniques and utilize estimated models, called meta-models, are quickly spreading. A meta-model is an approximation of a detailed simulation model based on a dataset of input, identified by the design of experiments (DOE); the number of simulations needed to build it depends on the number of variables. Among the various types of meta-modeling techniques, Kriging method seems to be excellent in accuracy, robustness and efficiency compared to other ones when applied to crashworthiness optimization. Therefore the application of such meta-model was used in this work, in order to improve the structural optimization of a bumper for a racing car in composite material subjected to frontal impact. The specific energy absorption represents the objective function to maximize and the geometrical parameters subjected to some design constraints are the design variables. LS-DYNA codes were interfaced with LS-OPT tool in order to find the optimized solution, through the use of a domain reduction strategy. With the use of the Kriging meta-model the crashworthiness characteristic of the composite bumper was improved.

Keywords: composite material, crashworthiness, finite element analysis, optimization

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15528 A Study of Lurking Behavior: The Desire Perspective

Authors: Hsiu-Hua Cheng, Chi-Wei Chen

Abstract:

Lurking behaviour is common in information-seeking oriented communities. Transferring users with lurking behaviour to be contributors can assist virtual communities to obtain competitive advantages. Based on the ecological cognition framework, this study proposes a model to examine the antecedents of lurking behaviour in information-seeking oriented virtual communities. This study argues desire for emotional support, desire for information support, desire for performance-approach, desire for performance -avoidance, desire for mastery-approach, desire for mastery-avoidance, desire for ability trust, desire for benevolence trust, and desire for integrity trust effect on lurking behaviour. This study offers an approach to understanding the determinants of lurking behaviour in online contexts.

Keywords: lurking behaviour, the ecological cognition framework, Information-seeking oriented virtual communities, desire

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15527 Susceptibility Assessment and Genetic Diversity of Iranian and CIMMYT Wheat Genotypes to Common Root Rot Disease Bipolaris sorokiniana

Authors: Mehdi Nasr Esfahani, Abdal-Rasool Gholamalian, Abdelfattah A. Dababat

Abstract:

Wheat, Triticum aestivum L. is one of the most important and strategic crops in the human diet. Several diseases threaten this particular crop. Common root rot disease of wheat by a fungal agent, Bipolaris sorokiniana is one of the important diseases, causing considerable losses worldwide. Resistant sources are the only feasible and effective method of control for managing diseases. In this study, the response of 33 domestic and exotic wheat genotypes, including cultivars and promising lines were screened to B. sorokiniana at greenhouse and field conditions, based on five scoring scale indexes of 0 to 100 severity percentage. The screening was continued on resistant wheat genotypes and repeated several times to confirm the greenhouse and field results. Statistical and cluster analysis of data was performed using SAS and SPSS software, respectively. The results showed that, the response of wheat genotypes to the disease in the greenhouse and field conditions was highly significant. The highest rate of common root rot disease infection, B. sorokiniana in the greenhouse and field, was of CVS. Karkheh and Beck Cross-Roshan with 60.83% and 59.16% disease severity respectively, and the lowest one were in cv. Alvand with 18.33%, followed by cv. Baharan with 19.16% disease severity, with a highly significant difference respectively. The remaining wheat genotypes were located in between these two highest and lowest infected groups to B. sorokiniana significantly. There was a high correlation coefficient between the related statistical groups and cluster analysis.

Keywords: wheat, rot, root, crown, fungus, genotype, resistance

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15526 Suppressing Vibration in a Three-axis Flexible Satellite: An Approach with Composite Control

Authors: Jalal Eddine Benmansour, Khouane Boulanoir, Nacera Bekhadda, Elhassen Benfriha

Abstract:

This paper introduces a novel composite control approach that addresses the challenge of stabilizing the three-axis attitude of a flexible satellite in the presence of vibrations caused by flexible appendages. The key contribution of this research lies in the development of a disturbance observer, which effectively observes and estimates the unwanted torques induced by the vibrations. By utilizing the estimated disturbance, the proposed approach enables efficient compensation for the detrimental effects of vibrations on the satellite system. To govern the attitude angles of the spacecraft, a proportional derivative controller (PD) is specifically designed and proposed. The PD controller ensures precise control over all attitude angles, facilitating stable and accurate spacecraft maneuvering. In order to demonstrate the global stability of the system, the Lyapunov method, a well-established technique in control theory, is employed. Through rigorous analysis, the Lyapunov method verifies the convergence of system dynamics, providing strong evidence of system stability. To evaluate the performance and efficacy of the proposed control algorithm, extensive simulations are conducted. The simulation results validate the effectiveness of the combined approach, showcasing significant improvements in the stabilization and control of the satellite's attitude, even in the presence of disruptive vibrations from flexible appendages. This novel composite control approach presented in this paper contributes to the advancement of satellite attitude control techniques, offering a promising solution for achieving enhanced stability and precision in challenging operational environments.

Keywords: attitude control, flexible satellite, vibration control, disturbance observer

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15525 Value Analysis Dashboard in Supply Chain Management, Real Case Study from Iran

Authors: Seyedehfatemeh Golrizgashti, Seyedali Dalil

Abstract:

The goal of this paper is proposing a supply chain value dashboard in home appliance manufacturing firms to create more value for all stakeholders via balanced scorecard approach. Balanced scorecard is an effective approach that managers have used to evaluate supply chain performance in many fields but there is a lack of enough attention to all supply chain stakeholders, improving value creation and, defining correlation between value indicators and performance measuring quantitatively. In this research the key stakeholders in home appliance supply chain, value indicators with respect to create more value for stakeholders and the most important metrics to evaluate supply chain value performance based on balanced scorecard approach have been selected via literature review. The most important indicators based on expert’s judgment acquired by in survey focused on creating more value for. Structural equation modelling has been used to disclose relations between value indicators and balanced scorecard metrics. The important result of this research is identifying effective value dashboard to create more value for all stakeholders in the supply chain via balanced scorecard approach and based on an empirical study covering ten home appliance manufacturing firms in Iran. Home appliance manufacturing firms can increase their stakeholder's satisfaction by using this value dashboard.

Keywords: supply chain management, balanced scorecard, value, structural modeling, stakeholders

Procedia PDF Downloads 334
15524 The Impact of Preference-Based Employee Deployment toward Employee Satisfaction and Organizational Performance: Case Study in Directorate General of State Asset Management, Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia

Authors: Rahmat Irawan, Mundhir Hanifsyam Harahap, Andar Ristabet Hesda

Abstract:

As a public sector organization in Indonesia, Directorate General of State Asset Management (DGSAM) which is a unit under the Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia, has many constraints in managing its employees. While private organizations are able to conduct a human resource management as the best practice, DGSAM is limited by many regulations, especially about punishment and lay off policy for under-performance employees. Therefore, since 2015, DGSAM tries to implement a new and uncommon approach considering employees’ preference to encourage the motivation and performance of employees. DGSAM’s employees may propose the job places, and DGSAM considers them in deciding employees deployment. This study tries to determine the impact of preference-based approach toward employees’ satisfaction and organizational performance. This study uses quantitative approaches by regression analysis to measure the impact of deployment toward satisfaction of deployed employees and performance change of related units in DGSAM. The result of this study shows that preference-based approach significantly improves employees’ satisfaction and performance of related units as well. Based on the results of this study, it can be suggested that the approach is able to be implemented in the wider scope of the Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia and whole public sector organization in Indonesia. However, this study only focuses on short term measurement, so it is suggested to do further study to analyze the long-term impact.

Keywords: employee deployment, employee satisfaction, human resource management, organizational performance, preference-based approach

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15523 Identifying Common Sports Injuries in Karate and Presenting a Model for Preventing Identified Injuries (A Case Study of East Azerbaijan, Iranian Karatekas)

Authors: Nadia Zahra Karimi Khiavi, Amir Ghiami Rad

Abstract:

Due to the high likelihood of injuries in karate, karatekas' injuries warrant special treatment. This study explores the prevalence of karate injuries in East Azerbaijan, Iran and provides a model for karatekas to use in the prevention of such injuries. This study employs a descriptive approach. Male and female participants with a brown belt or above in either control or non-control styles in East Azerbaijan province are included in the study's statistical population. A statistical sample size of 100 people was computed using the tools employed (smartpls), and the samples were drawn at random from all clubs in the province with the assistance of the Karate Board in order to give a model for the prevention of karate injuries. Information was gathered by means of a survey that made use of the Standard Questionnaire for Australian Sports Medicine Injury Reports. The information is presented in the form of tables and samples, and descriptive statistics were used to organise and summarise the data. Control and non-control independent t-tests were conducted using SPSS version 20, and structural equation modelling (pls) was utilised for injury prevention modelling at a 0.05 level of significance. The results showed that the most common areas of injury among the control groups were the upper limbs (46.15%), lower limbs (34.61%), trunk (15.38%), and head and neck (3.84%). The most common types of injuries were broken bones (34.61%), sprain or strain (23.13%), bruising and contusions (23.13%), trauma to the face and mouth (11.53%), and damage to the nerves (69.69%). Uncontrolled committees are most likely to sustain injuries to the head and neck (33.33%), trunk (25.92%), upper limbs (22.22%), and lower limbs (18.51%). The most common injuries were to the mouth and face (33.33%), dislocations and fractures (22.22%), aspirin and strain (22.22%), bruises and contusions (18.51%), and nerves (70%), in that order. Among those who practice control kata, injuries to the upper limb account for 45.83%, the lower limb for 41.666%, the trunk for 8.33%, and the head and neck for 4.166%. The most common types of injuries are dislocations and fractures (41.66 per cent), aspirin and strain (29.16 per cent), bruising and bruises (16.66 per cent), and nerves (12.5%). Injuries to the face and mouth were not reported among those practising the control kata. By far, the most common sites of injury for those practising uncontrolled kata were the lower limb (43.74%), upper limb (39.13%), trunk (13.14%), and head and neck (4.34%). The most common types of injuries were dislocations and fractures (34.82%), aspirin and strain (26.08%), bruises and contusions (21.73%), mouth and face (13.14%), and nerves. Teaching the concepts of cooling and warming (0.591) and enhancing the degree of safety in the sports environment (0.413) were shown to play the most essential roles in reducing sports injuries among karate practitioners of controlling and uncontrolled styles, respectively. Use of common sports gear (0.390), Modification of training programme principles (0.341), Formulation of an effective diet plan for athletes (0.284), Evaluation of athletes' physical anatomy, physiology, chemistry, and physics (0.247).

Keywords: sports injuries, karate, prevention, cooling and warming

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15522 Automatic Differentiation of Ultrasonic Images of Cystic and Solid Breast Lesions

Authors: Dmitry V. Pasynkov, Ivan A. Egoshin, Alexey A. Kolchev, Ivan V. Kliouchkin

Abstract:

In most cases, typical cysts are easily recognized at ultrasonography. The specificity of this method for typical cysts reaches 98%, and it is usually considered as gold standard for typical cyst diagnosis. However, it is necessary to have all the following features to conclude the typical cyst: clear margin, the absence of internal echoes and dorsal acoustic enhancement. At the same time, not every breast cyst is typical. It is especially characteristic for protein-contained cysts that may have significant internal echoes. On the other hand, some solid lesions (predominantly malignant) may have cystic appearance and may be falsely accepted as cysts. Therefore we tried to develop the automatic method of cystic and solid breast lesions differentiation. Materials and methods. The input data were the ultrasonography digital images with the 256-gradations of gray color (Medison SA8000SE, Siemens X150, Esaote MyLab C). Identification of the lesion on these images was performed in two steps. On the first one, the region of interest (or contour of lesion) was searched and selected. Selection of such region is carried out using the sigmoid filter where the threshold is calculated according to the empirical distribution function of the image brightness and, if necessary, it was corrected according to the average brightness of the image points which have the highest gradient of brightness. At the second step, the identification of the selected region to one of lesion groups by its statistical characteristics of brightness distribution was made. The following characteristics were used: entropy, coefficients of the linear and polynomial regression, quantiles of different orders, an average gradient of brightness, etc. For determination of decisive criterion of belonging to one of lesion groups (cystic or solid) the training set of these characteristics of brightness distribution separately for benign and malignant lesions were received. To test our approach we used a set of 217 ultrasonic images of 107 cystic (including 53 atypical, difficult for bare eye differentiation) and 110 solid lesions. All lesions were cytologically and/or histologically confirmed. Visual identification was performed by trained specialist in breast ultrasonography. Results. Our system correctly distinguished all (107, 100%) typical cysts, 107 of 110 (97.3%) solid lesions and 50 of 53 (94.3%) atypical cysts. On the contrary, with the bare eye it was possible to identify correctly all (107, 100%) typical cysts, 96 of 110 (87.3%) solid lesions and 32 of 53 (60.4%) atypical cysts. Conclusion. Automatic approach significantly surpasses the visual assessment performed by trained specialist. The difference is especially large for atypical cysts and hypoechoic solid lesions with the clear margin. This data may have a clinical significance.

Keywords: breast cyst, breast solid lesion, differentiation, ultrasonography

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15521 What Determine Corporate Board Diligence: Evidence from Sultanate of Oman

Authors: Badar Khalid Hakim Alshabibi

Abstract:

This study aims to examine the determinants of corporate board diligence in the listed firm in Sultanate of Oman, using four corporate board characteristics, the board size, board independence, board gender diversity, and nationality diversity. Design/methodology/approach: Using a sample comprised of all companies listed in the Muscat Securities Exchange over a ten-year period (2009–2019), the study applies Pooled OLS regression to examine the determinants of corporate board diligence. Findings: Drawing from the agency theory and institutional theory, the results reveal that the number of independent board members had statistical significance, suggesting that board independence can improve corporate board diligence, though board size and nationality diversity were found to have a negative association with corporate board diligence. There is no evidence, however, that board gender diversity improves corporate board diligence. Practical implications: The study provides insights for both the investors and regulatory authorities in developing economies. For the investors to be aware about the corporate board characteristics which enhance board monitoring, and for the regulatory authorities to consider revising the corporate governance codes which enhance the quality of governance practices. Originality/value: The study provides new evidence documenting the determinants of corporate board diligence in a developing country such as the Sultanate of Oman, which has a high potential for growth and attracting foreign investment, as stated in Oman vision 2040. In addition, this paper is the first to examine the association between corporate board diligence and corporate board diversity aspects.

Keywords: board diligence, board monitoring, board composition, board diversity, oman

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15520 The New Approach to Airport Emergency Plans

Authors: Jakub Kraus, Vladimír Plos, Peter Vittek

Abstract:

This article deals with a new approach to the airport emergency plans, which are the basic documents and manuals for dealing with events with impact on safety or security. The article describes the identified parts in which the current airport emergency plans do not fulfill their role and which should therefore be considered in the creation of corrective measures. All these issues have been identified at airports in the Czech Republic and confirmed at airports in neighboring countries.

Keywords: airport emergency plan, aviation safety, aviation security, comprehensive management system

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15519 Non-Destructive Evaluation for Physical State Monitoring of an Angle Section Thin-Walled Curved Beam

Authors: Palash Dey, Sudip Talukdar

Abstract:

In this work, a cross-breed approach is presented for obtaining both the amount of the damage intensity and location of damage existing in thin-walled members. This cross-breed approach is developed based on response surface methodology (RSM) and genetic algorithm (GA). Theoretical finite element (FE) model of cracked angle section thin walled curved beam has been linked to the developed approach to carry out trial experiments to generate response surface functions (RSFs) of free, forced and heterogeneous dynamic response data. Subsequently, the error between the computed response surface functions and measured dynamic response data has been minimized using GA to find out the optimum damage parameters (amount of the damage intensity and location). A single crack of varying location and depth has been considered in this study. The presented approach has been found to reveal good accuracy in prediction of crack parameters and possess great potential in crack detection as it requires only the current response of a cracked beam.

Keywords: damage parameters, finite element, genetic algorithm, response surface methodology, thin walled curved beam

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15518 Assessing Effectiveness of Schema Mode Therapy and Emotionally Focused Couples Therapy in Attachment Styles among Couples with Marital Conflict

Authors: Reza Johari Fard, Najmeh Cheraghi, Parvin Ehtesham Zadeh, Parviz Asgari

Abstract:

The aim of this study was to investigate and comparison of the effectiveness of schema mode therapy and emotionally focused couples therapy in attachment styles (secure, avoidant, and anxious) in couples with marital conflict in a quasiexperimental method in a pretest, posttest, and follow up design with a control group. The statistical population of the study included all the couples with marital conflict who visited the Mehrana counseling center in 2019 in Ahvaz, Iran 45 couples were selected by voluntary sampling method and randomly divided into two experimental groups and one control group (15 pairs in each group). The participants completed the Adult Attachment Scale (Hazan and Shaver). The experimental groups underwent schema mode therapy and emotionally focused couples therapy for 12 sessions, but the control group did not receive any intervention. The data were analyzed by the statistical analysis of repeated measures in SPSS-19 software. The results showed that both schema mode therapy and emotionally focused couples therapy are effective in increasing the secure attachment style and reducing avoidant and ambivalent attachment styles in couples with marital conflict. There was no significant difference between the schema mode therapy group and the emotionally focused couple's therapy group in attachment styles. Therefore, it is recommended that therapists and family counselors use these therapies along with other therapeutic interventions to increase secure attachment styles and reduce marital conflicts.

Keywords: schema mode therapy, emotional focused couple therapy, attachment styles, marital conflict

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15517 Inquiry-based Science Education in Computer Science Learning in Primary School

Authors: Maslin Masrom, Nik Hasnaa Nik Mahmood, Wan Normeza Wan Zakaria, Azizul Azizan, Norshaliza Kamaruddin

Abstract:

Traditionally, in science education, the teacher provides facts and the students learn them. It is outmoded for today’s students to equip them with real-life situations, mainly because knowledge and life skills are acquired passively from the instructors. Inquiry-Based Science Education (IBSE) is an approach that allows students to experiment, ask questions, and develop responses based on reasoning. It has provided students and teachers with opportunities to actively engage in collaborative learning via inquiry. This approach inspires the students to become active thinkers, research for solutions, and gain life-long experience and self-confidence. Therefore, the research aims to investigate how the primary-school teacher supports students or pupils through an inquiry-based science education approach for computer science, specifically coding skills. The results are presented and described.

Keywords: inquiry-based science education, student-centered learning, computer science, primary school

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15516 An Application of Extreme Value Theory as a Risk Measurement Approach in Frontier Markets

Authors: Dany Ng Cheong Vee, Preethee Nunkoo Gonpot, Noor Sookia

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In this paper, we consider the application of Extreme Value Theory as a risk measurement tool. The Value at Risk, for a set of indices, from six Stock Exchanges of Frontier markets is calculated using the Peaks over Threshold method and the performance of the model index-wise is evaluated using coverage tests and loss functions. Our results show that 'fat-tailedness' alone of the data is not enough to justify the use of EVT as a VaR approach. The structure of the returns dynamics is also a determining factor. This approach works fine in markets which have had extremes occurring in the past thus making the model capable of coping with extremes coming up (Colombo, Tunisia and Zagreb Stock Exchanges). On the other hand, we find that indices with lower past than present volatility fail to adequately deal with future extremes (Mauritius and Kazakhstan). We also conclude that using EVT alone produces quite static VaR figures not reflecting the actual dynamics of the data.

Keywords: extreme value theory, financial crisis 2008, value at risk, frontier markets

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15515 Optimization of Lead Bioremediation by Marine Halomonas sp. ES015 Using Statistical Experimental Methods

Authors: Aliaa M. El-Borai, Ehab A. Beltagy, Eman E. Gadallah, Samy A. ElAssar

Abstract:

Bioremediation technology is now used for treatment instead of traditional metal removal methods. A strain was isolated from Marsa Alam, Red sea, Egypt showed high resistance to high lead concentration and was identified by the 16S rRNA gene sequencing technique as Halomonas sp. ES015. Medium optimization was carried out using Plackett-Burman design, and the most significant factors were yeast extract, casamino acid and inoculums size. The optimized media obtained by the statistical design raised the removal efficiency from 84% to 99% from initial concentration 250 ppm of lead. Moreover, Box-Behnken experimental design was applied to study the relationship between yeast extract concentration, casamino acid concentration and inoculums size. The optimized medium increased removal efficiency to 97% from initial concentration 500 ppm of lead. Immobilized Halomonas sp. ES015 cells on sponge cubes, using optimized medium in loop bioremediation column, showed relatively constant lead removal efficiency when reused six successive cycles over the range of time interval. Also metal removal efficiency was not affected by flow rate changes. Finally, the results of this research refer to the possibility of lead bioremediation by free or immobilized cells of Halomonas sp. ES015. Also, bioremediation can be done in batch cultures and semicontinuous cultures using column technology.

Keywords: bioremediation, lead, Box–Behnken, Halomonas sp. ES015, loop bioremediation, Plackett-Burman

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15514 Comparative Study of the Effects of Process Parameters on the Yield of Oil from Melon Seed (Cococynthis citrullus) and Coconut Fruit (Cocos nucifera)

Authors: Ndidi F. Amulu, Patrick E. Amulu, Gordian O. Mbah, Callistus N. Ude

Abstract:

Comparative analysis of the properties of melon seed, coconut fruit and their oil yield were evaluated in this work using standard analytical technique AOAC. The results of the analysis carried out revealed that the moisture contents of the samples studied are 11.15% (melon) and 7.59% (coconut). The crude lipid content are 46.10% (melon) and 55.15% (coconut).The treatment combinations used (leaching time, leaching temperature and solute: solvent ratio) showed significant difference (p < 0.05) in yield between the samples, with melon oil seed flour having a higher percentage range of oil yield (41.30 – 52.90%) and coconut (36.25 – 49.83%). The physical characterization of the extracted oil was also carried out. The values gotten for refractive index are 1.487 (melon seed oil) and 1.361 (coconut oil) and viscosities are 0.008 (melon seed oil) and 0.002 (coconut oil). The chemical analysis of the extracted oils shows acid value of 1.00mg NaOH/g oil (melon oil), 10.050mg NaOH/g oil (coconut oil) and saponification value of 187.00mg/KOH (melon oil) and 183.26mg/KOH (coconut oil). The iodine value of the melon oil gave 75.00mg I2/g and 81.00mg I2/g for coconut oil. A standard statistical package Minitab version 16.0 was used in the regression analysis and analysis of variance (ANOVA). The statistical software mentioned above was also used to optimize the leaching process. Both samples gave high oil yield at the same optimal conditions. The optimal conditions to obtain highest oil yield ≥ 52% (melon seed) and ≥ 48% (coconut seed) are solute - solvent ratio of 40g/ml, leaching time of 2hours and leaching temperature of 50oC. The two samples studied have potential of yielding oil with melon seed giving the higher yield.

Keywords: Coconut, Melon, Optimization, Processing

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15513 Evaluation to Assess the Impact of Newcastle Infant Partnership Approach

Authors: Samantha Burns, Melissa Brown, Judith Rankin

Abstract:

Background: As a specialised intervention, NEWPIP provides a service which supports both parents and their babies from conception to two years, who are experiencing issues which may affect the quality of their relationship and development of the infant. This evaluation of the NEWPIP approach was undertaken in response to the need for rich, in-depth data to understand the lived experiences of the parents who experienced the service to improve the service. NEWPIP is currently one of 34 specialised parent–infant relationship teams across England. This evaluation contributes to increasing understanding of the impact and effectiveness of this specialised service to inform future practice. Aim: The aim of this evaluation was to explore the perspectives and experiences of parents or caregivers (service users), to assess the impact of the NEWPIP service on the parents themselves and the relationship with their baby. Methods: The exploratory nature of the aim and focus on service users’ experience and perspectives provided scope for a qualitative approach for this evaluation. This consisted of 10 semi-structured interviews with parents who had received the service within the last two years. Recruitment involved both purposive and convenience sampling. The interviews took place between February 2021 – March 2021, lasting between 30-90 minutes and were guided by open-ended questions from a topic guide. The interviews adopted a narrative approach to enable the parents to share their lived experiences. The researchers transcribed the interviews and analysed the data thematically by using a coding method which is grounded in the data. Results: The analysis and findings from the data gathered illuminated an approach which supports parents to build a better bond with their baby and provides a safe space for parents to heal through their relationships. While the parents shared their experiences, the interviews were intended to receive feedback, so questions were asked about what could be improved and what recommendations could be offered to Children North East. Guided by the voice of the parents, this evaluation provides recommendations to support the future of the NEWPIP approach. Conclusions: The NEWPIP approach appears to successfully provide early and flexible support for new parents, increasing a parent’s confidence in their ability to not only cope but thrive as a new parent.

Keywords: maternal health, mental health, parent infant relationship, therapy

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15512 The Evaluation of a Novel Cardiac Index derived from Anthropometric and Biochemical Parameters in Pediatric Morbid Obesity and Metabolic Syndrome

Authors: Mustafa Metin Donma

Abstract:

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) components are noteworthy among children with obesity and morbid obesity because they point out the cases with MetS, which have the great tendency to severe health problems such as cardiovascular diseases both in childhood and adulthood. In clinical practice, considerable efforts are being observed to bring into the open the striking differences between morbid obese cases and those with MetS findings. The most privileged aspect is concerning cardiometabolic features. The aim of this study was to derive an index which behaves different in children with and without MetS from the cardiac point of view. For the purpose, aspartate transaminase (AST), a cardiac enzyme still being used independently to predict cardiac-related problems, was used. One hundred and twenty four children were recruited from the outpatient clinic of Department of Pediatrics in Tekirdag Namik Kemal University, Faculty of Medicine. Forty-three children with normal body mass index, forty-one and forty morbid obese (MO) children with MetS and without the characteristic features of MetS, respectively, were included in the study. Weight, height, waist circumference (WC), hip C (HC), head C (HdC), neck C (NC), systolic and diastolic blood pressure values were measured and recorded. Body mass index and anthropometric ratios were calculated. Fasting blood glucose (FBG), insulin (INS), triglycerides (TRG), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) analyses were performed. The values for AST, alanin transaminase (ALT) and AST/ALT were obtained. Advanced Donma cardiac index (ADCI) values were calculated. The formula for the index was [(TRG/HDL-C) * (INS/FBG)] * [(WC+HC)/Height] * [(HdC+NC)/Height]. Statistical evaluations including correlation analysis were done by a statistical package program. The statistical significance degree was accepted as p<0.05. The index, ADCI, was developed from both anthropometric and biochemical parameters. All anthropometric measurements except weight were included in the equation. Besides all biochemical parameters concerning MetS components were also added. This index was tested in each of three groups. Its performance was compared with the performance of cardiometabolic index (CMI). It was also checked whether it was compatible with AST activity. The performance of ADCI was better than that of CMI. Instead of double increase, the increase of three times was observed in children with MetS compared to MO children. The index was correlated with AST in MO group and with AST/ALT in MetS group. In conclusion, this index was superior in discovering cardiac problems in MO and in diagnosing MetS in MetS groups. It was also arbiter to point out cardiovascular and MetS aspects among the groups.

Keywords: aspartate transaminase, cardiac, children, index, obesity

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15511 Induction Motor Stator Fault Analysis Using Phase-Angle and Magnitude of the Line Currents Spectra

Authors: Ahmed Hamida Boudinar, Noureddine Benouzza, Azeddine Bendiabdellah, Mohamed El Amine Khodja

Abstract:

This paper describes a new diagnosis approach for identification of the progressive stator winding inter-turn short-circuit fault in induction motor. This approach is based on a simple monitoring of the combined information related to both magnitude and phase-angle obtained from the fundamental by the three line currents frequency analysis. In addition, to simplify the interpretation and analysis of the data; a new graphical tool based on a triangular representation is suggested. This representation, depending on its size, enables to visualize in a simple and clear manner, the existence of the stator inter-turn short-circuit fault and its discrimination with respect to a healthy stator. Experimental results show well the benefit and effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Keywords: induction motor, magnitude, phase-angle, spectral analysis, stator fault

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15510 A Systems-Level Approach towards Transition to Electrical Vehicles

Authors: Mayuri Roy Choudhury, Deepti Paul

Abstract:

Many states in the United States are aiming for high renewable energy targets by the year 2045. In order to achieve this goal, they must do transition to Electrical Vehicles (EVS). We first applied the Multi-Level perspective framework to describe the inter-disciplinary complexities associated with the transition to EVs. Thereafter we addressed these complexities by creating an inter-disciplinary policy framework that uses data science algorithms to create evidence-based policies in favor of EVs. Our policy framework uses a systems level approach as it addresses transitions to EVs from a technology, economic, business and social perspective. By Systems-Level we mean approaching a problem from a multi-disciplinary perspective. Our systems-level approach could be a beneficial decision-making tool to a diverse number of stakeholders such as engineers, entrepreneurs, researchers, and policymakers. In addition, it will add value to the literature of electrical vehicles, sustainable energy, energy economics, and management as well as efficient policymaking.

Keywords: transition, electrical vehicles, systems-level, algorithms

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15509 The Hyperbolic Smoothing Approach for Automatic Calibration of Rainfall-Runoff Models

Authors: Adilson Elias Xavier, Otto Corrêa Rotunno Filho, Paulo Canedo De Magalhães

Abstract:

This paper addresses the issue of automatic parameter estimation in conceptual rainfall-runoff (CRR) models. Due to threshold structures commonly occurring in CRR models, the associated mathematical optimization problems have the significant characteristic of being strongly non-differentiable. In order to face this enormous task, the resolution method proposed adopts a smoothing strategy using a special C∞ differentiable class function. The final estimation solution is obtained by solving a sequence of differentiable subproblems which gradually approach the original conceptual problem. The use of this technique, called Hyperbolic Smoothing Method (HSM), makes possible the application of the most powerful minimization algorithms, and also allows for the main difficulties presented by the original CRR problem to be overcome. A set of computational experiments is presented for the purpose of illustrating both the reliability and the efficiency of the proposed approach.

Keywords: rainfall-runoff models, automatic calibration, hyperbolic smoothing method

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15508 A User Centred Based Approach for Designing Everyday Product: A Case Study of an Alarm Clock

Authors: Obokhai Kess Asikhia

Abstract:

This work explores design concept generation by understanding user needs through observation and interview. The aim is to examine several principles and guidelines in obtaining evidence from observing how users interact with the targeted product and interviewing them to acquire deep insights of their needs. With the help of Quality Function Deployment (QFD), the identified needs of the users while interacting with the product were ranked using the normalised weighting approach. Furthermore, a low fidelity prototype of the alarm clock is developed with a view of addressing the identified needs of the users. Finally, the low fidelity prototype design was evaluated with two design prototypes already existing in the market through a study involving 30 participants. Preliminary results reveal higher performance ratings by the majority of the participants of the new prototype compared to the other existing alarm clocks in the market used in the study.

Keywords: design concept, low fidelity prototype, normalised weighting approach, quality function deployment, user needs

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15507 Serum 25-Hydroxyvitamin D Levels in Korean Breast Cancer Patients

Authors: Sung Yong Kim, Byung Joo Song

Abstract:

Background: Circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels has been considered to be inversely related to breast cancer development, recurrence risk, and mortality. Mean vitamin D levels in Korean population is lower than western countries due to higher incidence of lactose intolerance and lower exposure to sunlight. The purpose of this study was to assess incidence of 25(OH)D deficiency at diagnosis and after adjuvant chemotherapy and to investigate the correlation serum 25(OH)D levels with clinicopathologic features. Methods: From December 2011 to October 2012, 280 breast cancer patients seen at a single tertiary cancer center were enrolled. Serum 25(OH)D was measured at the time of surgery and after completion of adjuvant chemotherapy. Statistical analyses used chi-square test, Fisher's exact test, t-test, and ANOVA. Results: Mean serum 25(OH)D was 18.5 ng/ml. The 25(OH)D levels were deficient (<20 ng/ml) in 190 patients (67.9%), insufficient (20-29 ng/ml) in 51 patients(18.2%), and sufficient (30-150 ng/ml) in 39 patients(13.9%). A notable decrease in 25(OH)D concentration was observed(p<0.001) after chemotherapy but was not related to chemotherapy regimens. It was found significant lower 25(OH)D levels at winter season(from October to March, p=0.030). Subjects with invasive carcinoma (IDC or ILC) had significantly lower circulating levels of 25(OH)D than those with ductal carcinoma in situ(DCIS) (p=0.010). Patients with larger tumor size tends to have lower serum 25(OH)D but there were no statistical significance. Conclusions: Most of the breast cancer patients showed deficient or insufficient serum 25(OH)D concentration. Incidence of vitamin D deficiency was higher in invasive carcinoma than DCIS. Serum 25(OH)D levels were decreased after chemotherapy. Consideration should be given to the supplement of vitamin D to those patients.

Keywords: breast neoplasms, vitamin D, Korean population, breast cancer

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15506 3D Printing Perceptual Models of Preference Using a Fuzzy Extreme Learning Machine Approach

Authors: Xinyi Le

Abstract:

In this paper, 3D printing orientations were determined through our perceptual model. Some FDM (Fused Deposition Modeling) 3D printers, which are widely used in universities and industries, often require support structures during the additive manufacturing. After removing the residual material, some surface artifacts remain at the contact points. These artifacts will damage the function and visual effect of the model. To prevent the impact of these artifacts, we present a fuzzy extreme learning machine approach to find printing directions that avoid placing supports in perceptually significant regions. The proposed approach is able to solve the evaluation problem by combing both the subjective knowledge and objective information. Our method combines the advantages of fuzzy theory, auto-encoders, and extreme learning machine. Fuzzy set theory is applied for dealing with subjective preference information, and auto-encoder step is used to extract good features without supervised labels before extreme learning machine. An extreme learning machine method is then developed successfully for training and learning perceptual models. The performance of this perceptual model will be demonstrated on both natural and man-made objects. It is a good human-computer interaction practice which draws from supporting knowledge on both the machine side and the human side.

Keywords: 3d printing, perceptual model, fuzzy evaluation, data-driven approach

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15505 An Image Based Visual Servoing (IBVS) Approach Using a Linear-Quadratic Regulator (LQR) for Quadcopters

Authors: C. Gebauer, C. Henke, R. Vossen

Abstract:

Within the Mohamed Bin Zayed International Robotics Challenge (MBZIRC) 2020, a team of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) is used to capture intruder drones by physical interaction. The challenge is motivated by UAV safety. The purpose of this work is to investigate the agility of a quadcopter being controlled visually. The aim is to track and follow a highly dynamic target, e.g., an intruder quadcopter. The following is realized in close range and the opponent has a velocity of up to 10 m/s. Additional limitations are given by the hardware itself, where only monocular vision is present, and no additional knowledge about the targets state is available. An image based visual servoing (IBVS) approach is applied in combination with a Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR). The IBVS is integrated into the LQR and an optimal trajectory is computed within the projected three-dimensional image-space. The approach has been evaluated on real quadcopter systems in different flight scenarios to demonstrate the system's stability.

Keywords: image based visual servoing, quadcopter, dynamic object tracking, linear-quadratic regulator

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15504 Student's Difficulties with Classes That Involve Laboratory Education Approach

Authors: Kayondoamunmose Kamafrika

Abstract:

Experimental based Engineering education approach plays a vital role in the development of student’s deep understanding of both social and physical sciences. Experimental based education approach through laboratory class activities prepare students to meet national demand for high-tech skilled individuals in the government and private sector. However, students across the country are faced with difficulties in classes that involve laboratory activities: poor experimental based exposure in their early development of student’s education-life-cycle, lack of student engagement in scientific method practical thinking approach, lack of communication between students and the instructor during class, a large number of students in one classroom, lack of instruments and improper equipment calibration. The purpose of this paper is to help students develop their own scientific knowledge and understanding, develop their methodologies in the design of experiments, collect and analyze data, write laboratory reports, present and explain their findings. Experimental based laboratory activities allow students to learn with high-level understanding as well as engage in the design processes of constructing knowledge through practical means of doing science. Experimental based education systems approach will act as a catalyst in the development of practical-based-educational methodologies in social and physical science and engineering domain of learning; thereby, converting laboratory classes into pilot industries and students into professional experts in finding a solution for complex problems, research, and development of super high- tech systems.

Keywords: experimental, engineering, innovation, practicability

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