Search results for: hyperbolic smoothing method

Authors: Adilson Elias Xavier, Otto Corrêa Rotunno Filho, Paulo Canedo De Magalhães

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This paper addresses the issue of automatic parameter estimation in conceptual rainfall-runoff (CRR) models. Due to threshold structures commonly occurring in CRR models, the associated mathematical optimization problems have the significant characteristic of being strongly non-differentiable. In order to face this enormous task, the resolution method proposed adopts a smoothing strategy using a special C∞ differentiable class function. The final estimation solution is obtained by solving a sequence of differentiable subproblems which gradually approach the original conceptual problem. The use of this technique, called Hyperbolic Smoothing Method (HSM), makes possible the application of the most powerful minimization algorithms, and also allows for the main difficulties presented by the original CRR problem to be overcome. A set of computational experiments is presented for the purpose of illustrating both the reliability and the efficiency of the proposed approach.

Keywords: rainfall-runoff models, automatic calibration, hyperbolic smoothing method

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Authors: Taiyo Matsumura, Kuninori Takahashi, Takashi Ono

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The purpose of this research is to improve the convenience of waiting for trains at level crossings and stations and to prevent accidents resulting from forcible entry into level crossings, by providing level crossing users and passengers with information that tells them when the next train will pass through or arrive. For this paper, we proposed methods for estimating operation by means of an average value method, variable response smoothing method, and exponential smoothing method, on the basis of open data, which has low accuracy, but for which performance schedules are distributed in real time. We then examined the accuracy of the estimations. The results showed that the application of an exponential smoothing method is valid.

Keywords: exponential smoothing method, open data, operation estimation, train schedule

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Authors: Autcha Araveeporn

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This paper presents a study about a nonparametric regression model consisting of a smoothing spline method and a penalized spline regression method. We also compare the techniques used for estimation and prediction of nonparametric regression model. We tried both methods with crude oil prices in dollars per barrel and the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index. According to the results, it is concluded that smoothing spline method performs better than that of penalized spline regression method.

Keywords: nonparametric regression model, penalized spline regression method, smoothing spline method, Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET)

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Authors: M. O. Durojaye, J. T. Agee

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This paper is on the one-dimensional, positive temperature coefficient (PTC) thermistor model with a hyperbolic tangent function approximation for the electrical conductivity. The method of asymptotic expansion was adopted to obtain the steady state solution and the unsteady-state response was obtained using the method of lines (MOL) which is a well-established numerical technique. The approach is to reduce the partial differential equation to a vector system of ordinary differential equations and solve numerically. Our analysis shows that the hyperbolic tangent approximation introduced is well suitable for the electrical conductivity. Numerical solutions obtained also exhibit correct physical characteristics of the thermistor and are in good agreement with the exact steady state solutions.

Keywords: electrical conductivity, hyperbolic tangent function, PTC thermistor, method of lines

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Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Berislav Žmuk

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The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters` multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing model. Our findings are in line with European Commission unemployment rate estimates.

Keywords: European Union countries, exponential smoothing methods, forecast accuracy unemployment rate

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Authors: Apedzan Emmanuel Kighir

Abstract:

This research investigates dividends smoothing among non-financial companies trading on the Nigerian Stock Exchange in an era of unclaimed dividends from 2004 to 2013. There has been a raging controversy among Regulatory Authorities, Company Executives, Registrars of Companies, Shareholders and the general public regarding the increasing incidence of unclaimed dividends in Nigeria. The objective of this study is to find out if corporate earnings management through dividends smoothing is implicated in unclaimed dividends among Nigerian non-financial firms. The research used panel data and employed Generalized Method of Moment as method of analysis. The research finds evidence of dividends-smoothing in this era of unclaimed dividends in Nigeria. The research concludes that dividends-smoothing is a trigger and red flag for unclaimed dividends, an output of earnings management. If earnings management and hence unclaimed dividends in Nigeria is allowed to continue, it will lead to great consequences to the investors and corporate policy of government. It is believed that the research will assist investors and government in making informed decisions regarding dividends policy in Nigeria.

Keywords: dividends smoothing, non financial companies, Nigerian stock exchange, unclaimed dividends, corporate earnings management

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Authors: Feddaoui Amina

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Income smoothing represents an attempt on the part of the company's management to reduce variations in earnings through the manipulation of the accounting principles. In this study, we aimed to measure income smoothing practices in a sample of 30 French joint stock companies during the period (2007-2009), we used Dummy variables method and “ECKEL” model to measure income smoothing practices and Binomial test accourding to SPSS program, to confirm or refute our hypothesis. This study concluded that there are no significant statistical indicators of income smoothing practices in the sample studied of French companies during the period (2007-2009), so the income series in the same sample studied of is characterized by stability and non-volatility without any intervention of management through accounting manipulation. However, this type of accounting manipulation should be taken into account and efforts should be made by control bodies to apply Eckel model and generalize its use at the global level.

Keywords: income, smoothing, 'Eckel', French companies

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Authors: Mamyrbek A. Beisenbi, Nurgul M. Kissikova, Saltanat E. Beisembina, Salamat T. Suleimenova, Samal A. Kaliyeva

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The paper proposes a method for constructing a self-organizing control system for unstable and deterministic chaotic processes in the class of catastrophe “hyperbolic umbilic” for objects with m-inputs and n-outputs. The self-organizing control system is investigated by the universal gradient-velocity method of Lyapunov vector functions. The conditions for self-organization of the control system in the class of catastrophes “hyperbolic umbilic” are shown in the form of a system of algebraic inequalities that characterize the aperiodic robust stability in the stationary states of the system.

Keywords: gradient-velocity method of Lyapunov vector-functions, hyperbolic umbilic, self-organizing control system, stability

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Authors: A. H. Choudhury

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In this paper, a highly accurate numerical method for the solution of one-dimensional fourth-order wave equation is derived. This hyperbolic problem is solved by using semidiscrete approximations. The space direction is discretized by wavelet-Galerkin method, and the time variable is discretized by using Newmark schemes.

Keywords: hyperbolic problem, semidiscrete approximations, stability, Wavelet-Galerkin Method

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Authors: Jose Juan Peña, J. Morales, J. García-Ravelo

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In the search of potential models applied in the theoretical treatment of diatomic molecules, some of them have been constructed by using standard hyperbolic functions as well as from the so-called q-deformed hyperbolic functions (sc q-dhf) for displacing and modifying the shape of the potential under study. In order to transcend the scope of hyperbolic functions, in this work, a kind of generalized q-deformed hyperbolic functions (g q-dhf) is presented. By a suitable transformation, through the q deformation parameter, it is shown that these g q-dhf can be expressed in terms of their corresponding standard ones besides they can be reduced to the sc q-dhf. As a useful application of the proposed approach, and considering a class of exactly solvable multi-parameter exponential-type potentials, some new q-deformed quantum interactions models that can be used as interesting alternative in quantum physics and quantum states are presented. Furthermore, due that quantum potential models are conditioned on the q-dependence of the parameters that characterize to the exponential-type potentials, it is shown that many specific cases of q-deformed potentials are obtained as particular cases from the proposal.

Keywords: diatomic molecules, exponential-type potentials, hyperbolic functions, q-deformed potentials

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Authors: Xuezhang Hou

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In the present paper, a hybrid hyperbolic dynamic system formulated by partial differential equations with initial and boundary conditions is considered. First, the system is transformed to an abstract evolution system in an appropriate Hilbert space, and spectral analysis and semigroup generation of the system operator is discussed. Subsequently, a sliding model control problem is proposed and investigated, and an equivalent control method is introduced and applied to the system. Finally, a significant result that the state of the system can be approximated by an ideal sliding mode under control in any accuracy is derived and examined.

Keywords: hyperbolic dynamic system, sliding model control, semigroup of linear operators, partial differential equations

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Authors: Jianhong Xiang, Hao Xiang, Linyu Wang

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Compressed sensing (CS) has a wide range of applications in sparse signal reconstruction. Aiming at the problems of low recovery accuracy and long reconstruction time of existing reconstruction algorithms in medical imaging, this paper proposes a corrected smoothing L0 algorithm based on compressed sensing (CSL0). First, an approximate hyperbolic tangent function (AHTF) that is more similar to the L0 norm is proposed to approximate the L0 norm. Secondly, in view of the "sawtooth phenomenon" in the steepest descent method and the problem of sensitivity to the initial value selection in the modified Newton method, the use of the steepest descent method and the modified Newton method are jointly optimized to improve the reconstruction accuracy. Finally, the CSL0 algorithm is simulated on various images. The results show that the algorithm proposed in this paper improves the reconstruction accuracy of the test image by 0-0. 98dB.

Keywords: smoothed L0, compressed sensing, image processing, sparse reconstruction

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Authors: S. O. Oyamakin, A. U. Chukwu,

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We proposed a Hyperbolic Gompertz Growth Model (HGGM), which was developed by introducing a stabilizing parameter called θ using hyperbolic sine function into the classical gompertz growth equation. The resulting integral solution obtained deterministically was reprogrammed into a statistical model and used in modeling the height and diameter of Pines (Pinus caribaea). Its ability in model prediction was compared with the classical gompertz growth model, an approach which mimicked the natural variability of height/diameter increment with respect to age and therefore provides a more realistic height/diameter predictions using goodness of fit tests and model selection criteria. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Shapiro-Wilk test was also used to test the compliance of the error term to normality assumptions while using testing the independence of the error term using the runs test. The mean function of top height/Dbh over age using the two models under study predicted closely the observed values of top height/Dbh in the hyperbolic gompertz growth models better than the source model (classical gompertz growth model) while the results of R2, Adj. R2, MSE, and AIC confirmed the predictive power of the Hyperbolic Monomolecular growth models over its source model.

Keywords: height, Dbh, forest, Pinus caribaea, hyperbolic, gompertz

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Authors: Messis A., Adjebli A., Ayeche R., Talbi M., Tighilet K., Louardiane M.

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Cancers are the second cause of death worldwide. Prevalence and incidence of cancers is getting increased by aging and population growth. This study aims to predict and modeling the evolution of breast, Colorectal, Lung, Bladder and Prostate cancers over the period of 2014-2019. In this study, data were analyzed using time series analysis with double exponential smoothing method to forecast the future pattern. To describe and fit the appropriate models, Minitab statistical software version 17 was used. Between 2014 and 2019, the overall trend in the raw number of new cancer cases registered has been increasing over time; the change in observations over time has been increasing. Our forecast model is validated since we have good prediction for the period 2020 and data not available for 2021 and 2022. Time series analysis showed that the double exponential smoothing is an efficient tool to model the future data on the raw number of new cancer cases.

Keywords: cancer, time series, prediction, double exponential smoothing

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Authors: Ashis Mallick, Rajeev Ranjan

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The closed form solution for thermal stresses in an annular fin with hyperbolic profile is derived using Adomian decomposition method (ADM). The conductive-convective fin with variable thermal conductivity is considered in the analysis. The nonlinear heat transfer equation is efficiently solved by ADM considering insulated convective boundary conditions at the tip of fin. The constant of integration in the solution is to be estimated using minimum decomposition error method. The solution of temperature field is represented in a polynomial form for convenience to use in thermo-elasticity equation. The non-dimensional thermal stress fields are obtained using the ADM solution of temperature field coupled with the thermo-elasticity solution. The influence of the various thermal parameters in temperature field and stress fields are presented. In order to show the accuracy of the ADM solution, the present results are compared with the results available in literature. The stress fields in fin with hyperbolic profile are compared with those of uniform thickness profile. Result shows that hyperbolic fin profile is better choice for enhancing heat transfer. Moreover, less thermal stresses are developed in hyperbolic profile as compared to rectangular profile. Next, Nelder-Mead based simplex search method is employed for the inverse estimation of unknown non-dimensional thermal parameters in a given stress fields. Owing to the correlated nature of the unknowns, the best combinations of the model parameters which are satisfying the predefined stress field are to be estimated. The stress fields calculated using the inverse parameters give a very good agreement with the stress fields obtained from the forward solution. The estimated parameters are suitable to use for efficient and cost effective fin designing.

Keywords: Adomian decomposition, inverse analysis, hyperbolic fin, variable thermal conductivity

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Authors: Fatma Ezzahra Kateb, Neila Boulila Taktak, Mohamed Kabir Hassan

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We examine the impact of Islamic accounting and auditing standards issued by the Accounting and Auditing Organization for Islamic Financial Institutions (AAOIFI) on the income smoothing perspective of Islamic financial institutions located in the Middle East and North Africa region between 2013 and 2018. Based on General Least square regression for panel data, we find a significant and positive relationship between intentional income smoothing and earning persistence and cash flow predictability in all models. However, we discovered that AAOIFI accounting standards (FAS) had a negative and significant effect on intentional income smoothing and earning persistence. As a result, the income smoothing efficiency is lower for IFIs that use FASs than IFIs that use IFRSs. Our findings emphasize the need for specific standards to enhance the relevance of financial reports disclosed by Islamic financial institutions.

Keywords: AAOIFI, financial reporting quality, income smoothing perspective, MENA countries

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Authors: S. O. Oyamakin, A. U. Chukwu

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Richard's growth equation being a generalized logistic growth equation was improved upon by introducing an allometric parameter using the hyperbolic sine function. The integral solution to this was called hyperbolic Richard's growth model having transformed the solution from deterministic to a stochastic growth model. Its ability in model prediction was compared with the classical Richard's growth model an approach which mimicked the natural variability of heights/diameter increment with respect to age and therefore provides a more realistic height/diameter predictions using the coefficient of determination (R2), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Square Error (MSE) results. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Shapiro-Wilk test was also used to test the behavior of the error term for possible violations. The mean function of top height/Dbh over age using the two models under study predicted closely the observed values of top height/Dbh in the hyperbolic Richard's nonlinear growth models better than the classical Richard's growth model.

Keywords: height, Dbh, forest, Pinus caribaea, hyperbolic, Richard's, stochastic

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Authors: Samuel Oluwafemi Oyamakin, Angela Unna Chukwu

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Richrads growth equation being a generalized logistic growth equation was improved upon by introducing an allometric parameter using the hyperbolic sine function. The integral solution to this was called hyperbolic Richards growth model having transformed the solution from deterministic to a stochastic growth model. Its ability in model prediction was compared with the classical Richards growth model an approach which mimicked the natural variability of heights/diameter increment with respect to age and therefore provides a more realistic height/diameter predictions using the coefficient of determination (R2), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Square Error (MSE) results. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Shapiro-Wilk test was also used to test the behavior of the error term for possible violations. The mean function of top height/Dbh over age using the two models under study predicted closely the observed values of top height/Dbh in the hyperbolic Richards nonlinear growth models better than the classical Richards growth model.

Keywords: height, diameter at breast height, DBH, hyperbolic sine function, Pinus caribaea, Richards' growth model

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Authors: Dimitra Alexiou

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During the last 10 years, in spite of the economic crisis, the number of tourists arriving in Greece has increased, particularly during the tourist season from April to October. In this paper, the number of annual tourist arrivals is studied to explore their preferences with regard to the month of travel, the selected destinations, as well the amount of money spent. The collected data are processed with statistical methods, yielding numerical and graphical results. From the computation of statistical parameters and the forecasting with exponential smoothing, useful conclusions are arrived at that can be used by the Greek tourism authorities, as well as by tourist organizations, for planning purposes for the coming years. The results of this paper and the computed forecast can also be used for decision making by private tourist enterprises that are investing in Greece. With regard to the statistical methods, the method of Simple Exponential Smoothing of time series of data is employed. The search for a best forecast for 2017 and 2018 provides the value of the smoothing coefficient. For all statistical computations and graphics Microsoft Excel is used.

Keywords: tourism, statistical methods, exponential smoothing, land spatial planning, economy

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Authors: Yu Zhang, Kohei Inoue, Kiichi Urahama

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We propose a simplified bilateral filter with binarized coefficients for accelerating it. Its computational cost is further decreased by sampling pixels. This computationally low cost filter is useful for smoothing or denoising images by using mobile devices with limited computational power.

Keywords: bilateral filter, binarized-weight bilateral filter, image smoothing, image denoising, pixel sampling

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Authors: Yinwei Lin, Cha'o-Kuang Chen

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In this article, the Laplace Adomian transform method (LADM) and double decomposition method (DDM) are used to solve the annular hyperbolic profile fins with variable thermal conductivity. As the thermal conductivity parameter ε is relatively large, the numerical solution using DDM become incorrect. Moreover, when the terms of DDM are more than seven, the numerical solution using DDM is very complicated. However, the present method can be easily calculated as terms are over seven and has more precisely numerical solutions. As the thermal conductivity parameter ε is relatively large, LADM also has better accuracy than DDM.

Keywords: fins, thermal conductivity, Laplace transform, Adomian, nonlinear

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Authors: Lana Horvat Dmitrović

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The main purpose of this paper is to study the box dimension as fractal property of bifurcations of discrete dynamical systems in higher dimensions. The paper contains the fractal analysis of the orbits near the hyperbolic and non-hyperbolic fixed points in discrete dynamical systems. It is already known that in one-dimensional case the orbit near the hyperbolic fixed point has the box dimension equal to zero. On the other hand, the orbit near the non-hyperbolic fixed point has strictly positive box dimension which is connected to the non-degeneracy condition of certain bifurcation. One of the main results in this paper is the generalisation of results about box dimension near the hyperbolic and non-hyperbolic fixed points to higher dimensions. In the process of determining box dimension, the restriction of systems to stable, unstable and center manifolds, Lipschitz property of box dimension and the notion of projective box dimension are used. The analysis of the bifurcations in higher dimensions with one multiplier on the unit circle is done by using the normal forms on one-dimensional center manifolds. This specific change in box dimension of an orbit at the moment of bifurcation has already been explored for some bifurcations in one and two dimensions. It was shown that specific values of box dimension are connected to appropriate bifurcations such as fold, flip, cusp or Neimark-Sacker bifurcation. This paper further explores this connection of box dimension as fractal property to some specific bifurcations in higher dimensions, such as fold-flip and flip-Neimark-Sacker. Furthermore, the application of the results to the unit time map of continuous dynamical system near hyperbolic and non-hyperbolic singularities is presented. In that way, box dimensions which are specific for certain bifurcations of continuous systems can be obtained. The approach to bifurcation analysis by using the box dimension as specific fractal property of orbits can lead to better understanding of bifurcation phenomenon. It could also be useful in detecting the existence or nonexistence of bifurcations of discrete and continuous dynamical systems.

Keywords: bifurcation, box dimension, invariant manifold, orbit near fixed point

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Authors: Daoudi Abdelaziz, Mahmoudi Saïd, Chikh Mohamed Amine

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This paper presents a fully automatic segmentation method of the left ventricle at End Systolic (ES) and End Diastolic (ED) in the ultrasound images by means of an implicit deformable model (level set) based on Geodesic Active Contour model. A pre-processing Gaussian smoothing stage is applied to the image, which is essential for a good segmentation. Before the segmentation phase, we locate automatically the area of the left ventricle by using a detection approach based on the Hough Transform method. Consequently, the result obtained is used to automate the initialization of the level set model. This initial curve (zero level set) deforms to search the Endocardial border in the image. On the other hand, quantitative evaluation was performed on a data set composed of 15 subjects with a comparison to ground truth (manual segmentation).

Keywords: level set method, transform Hough, Gaussian smoothing, left ventricle, ultrasound images.

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Authors: H. Taylan Selamlar, I. Yavuz, G. Yapar

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It is difficult to make predictions especially about the future and making accurate predictions is not always easy. However, better predictions remain the foundation of all science therefore the development of accurate, robust and reliable forecasting methods is very important. Numerous number of forecasting methods have been proposed and studied in the literature. There are still two dominant major forecasting methods: Box-Jenkins ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing (ES), and still new methods are derived or inspired from them. After more than 50 years of widespread use, exponential smoothing is still one of the most practically relevant forecasting methods available due to their simplicity, robustness and accuracy as automatic forecasting procedures especially in the famous M-Competitions. Despite its success and widespread use in many areas, ES models have some shortcomings that negatively affect the accuracy of forecasts. Therefore, a new forecasting method in this study will be proposed to cope with these shortcomings and it will be called ATA method. This new method is obtained from traditional ES models by modifying the smoothing parameters therefore both methods have similar structural forms and ATA can be easily adapted to all of the individual ES models however ATA has many advantages due to its innovative new weighting scheme. In this paper, the focus is on modeling the trend component and handling seasonality patterns by utilizing classical decomposition. Therefore, ATA method is expanded to higher order ES methods for additive, multiplicative, additive damped and multiplicative damped trend components. The proposed models are called ATA trended models and their predictive performances are compared to their counter ES models on the M3 competition data set since it is still the most recent and comprehensive time-series data collection available. It is shown that the models outperform their counters on almost all settings and when a model selection is carried out amongst these trended models ATA outperforms all of the competitors in the M3- competition for both short term and long term forecasting horizons when the models’ forecasting accuracies are compared based on popular error metrics.

Keywords: accuracy, exponential smoothing, forecasting, initial value

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Authors: Po-Jen Su, Huann-Ming Chou

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In this article we uses the residual correction method to deal with transient thermoelastic problems with a hollow spherical region when the continuum medium possesses spherically isotropic thermoelastic properties. Based on linear thermoelastic theory, the equations of hyperbolic heat conduction and thermoelastic motion were combined to establish the thermoelastic dynamic model with consideration of the deformation acceleration effect and non-Fourier effect under the condition of transient thermal shock. The approximate solutions of temperature and displacement distributions are obtained using the residual correction method based on the maximum principle in combination with the finite difference method, making it easier and faster to obtain upper and lower approximations of exact solutions. The proposed method is found to be an effective numerical method with satisfactory accuracy. Moreover, the result shows that the effect of transient thermal shock induced by deformation acceleration is enhanced by non-Fourier heat conduction with increased peak stress. The influence on the stress increases with the thermal relaxation time.

Keywords: maximum principle, non-Fourier heat conduction, residual correction method, thermo-elastic response

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Authors: Semra Turkan

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In this paper, we have examined the factors that affect the productivity of Turkey’s Top 500 Industrial Enterprises in 2014. The labor productivity of enterprises is taken as an indicator of productivity of industrial enterprises. When the relationships between some financial ratios and labor productivity, it is seen that there is a nonparametric relationship between labor productivity and return on sales. In addition, the distribution of labor productivity of enterprises is right-skewed. If the dependent distribution is skewed, the quantile regression is more suitable for this data. Hence, the nonparametric relationship between labor productivity and return on sales by quantile smoothing splines.

Keywords: quantile regression, smoothing spline, labor productivity, financial ratios

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Authors: Telesphore Tiendrebeogo, Oumarou Sié

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Cloud computing technologies have attracted considerable interest in recent years. Thus, these latters have become more important for many existing database applications. It provides a new mode of use and of offer of IT resources in general. Such resources can be used “on demand” by anybody who has access to the internet. Particularly, the Cloud platform provides an ease to use interface between providers and users, allow providers to develop and provide software and databases for users over locations. Currently, there are many Cloud platform providers support large scale database services. However, most of these only support simple keyword-based queries and can’t response complex query efficiently due to lack of efficient in multi-attribute index techniques. Existing Cloud platform providers seek to improve performance of indexing techniques for complex queries. In this paper, we define a new cloud computing architecture based on a Distributed Hash Table (DHT) and design a prototype system. Next, we perform and evaluate our cloud computing indexing structure based on a hyperbolic tree using virtual coordinates taken in the hyperbolic plane. We show through our experimental results that we compare with others clouds systems to show our solution ensures consistence and scalability for Cloud platform.

Keywords: virtual coordinates, cloud, hyperbolic plane, storage, scalability, consistency

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Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow

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A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Keywords: forecasting model, steel demand uncertainty, hierarchical Bayesian framework, exponential smoothing method

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Authors: El Hassene Osmani, Mounir Haddou, Naceurdine Bensalem

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In this paper, we investigate optimal control problems governed by semilinear elliptic variational inequalities involving constraints on the state, and more precisely, the obstacle problem. We present a relaxed formulation for the problem using smoothing functions. Since we adopt a numerical point of view, we first relax the feasible domain of the problem, then using both mathematical programming methods and penalization methods, we get optimality conditions with smooth Lagrange multipliers. Some numerical experiments using IPOPT algorithm (Interior Point Optimizer) are presented to verify the efficiency of our approach.

Keywords: complementarity problem, IPOPT, Lagrange multipliers, mathematical programming, optimal control, smoothing methods, variationally inequalities

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Authors: Gozel Judakova, Markus Bause

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We present and analyze reliable numerical techniques for simulating complex flow and transport phenomena related to natural gas transportation in pipelines. Such kind of problems are of high interest in the field of petroleum and environmental engineering. Modeling and understanding natural gas flow and transformation processes during transportation is important for the sake of physical realism and the design and operation of pipeline systems. In our approach a two fluid flow model based on a system of coupled hyperbolic conservation laws is considered for describing natural gas flow undergoing hydratization. The accurate numerical approximation of two-phase gas flow remains subject of strong interest in the scientific community. Such hyperbolic problems are characterized by solutions with steep gradients or discontinuities, and their approximation by standard finite element techniques typically gives rise to spurious oscillations and numerical artefacts. Recently, stabilized and discontinuous Galerkin finite element techniques have attracted researchers’ interest. They are highly adapted to the hyperbolic nature of our two-phase flow model. In the presentation a streamline upwind Petrov-Galerkin approach and a discontinuous Galerkin finite element method for the numerical approximation of our flow model of two coupled systems of Euler equations are presented. Then the efficiency and reliability of stabilized continuous and discontinous finite element methods for the approximation is carefully analyzed and the potential of the either classes of numerical schemes is investigated. In particular, standard benchmark problems of two-phase flow like the shock tube problem are used for the comparative numerical study.

Keywords: discontinuous Galerkin method, Euler system, inviscid two-fluid model, streamline upwind Petrov-Galerkin method, twophase flow

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