Search results for: moral hazard incentives

Authors: Allyson Dale, Max Hlywa

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The Canadian public expects the highest moral standards from Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) members and Department of National Defence (DND) employees. The Chief, Professional Conduct and Culture (CPCC) stood up in April 2021 with the mission of ensuring that the defence culture and members’ conduct are aligned with the ethical principles and values that the organization aspires towards. The Defence Ethics Program (DEP), which stood up in 1997, is a values-based ethics program for individuals and organizations within the DND/CAF and now falls under CPCC. The DEP is divided into five key functional areas, including policy, communications, collaboration, training and education, and advice and guidance. The main focus of the DEP is to foster an ethical culture within defence so that members and organizations perform to the highest ethical standards. The measurement of organizational ethics is often complex and challenging. In order to monitor whether the DEP is achieving its intended outcomes, a performance measurement framework (PMF) was developed using the Director General Military Personnel Research and Analysis (DGMPRA) PMF development process. This evidence-based process is based on subject-matter expertise from the defence team. The goal of this presentation is to describe each stage of the DGMPRA PMF development process and to present and discuss the products of the DEP PMF (e.g., logic model). Specifically, first, a strategic framework was developed to provide a high-level overview of the strategic objectives, mission, and vision of the DEP. Next, Key Performance Questions were created based on the objectives in the strategic framework. A logic model detailing the activities, outputs (what is produced by the program activities), and intended outcomes of the program were developed to demonstrate how the program works. Finally, Key Performance Indicators were developed based on both the intended outcomes in the logic model and the Key Performance Questions in order to monitor program effectiveness. The Key Performance Indicators measure aspects of organizational ethics such as ethical conduct and decision-making, DEP collaborations, and knowledge and awareness of the Defence Ethics Code while leveraging ethics-related items from multiple DGMPRA surveys where appropriate.

Keywords: defence ethics, ethical culture, organizational performance, performance measurement framework

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Authors: Tamar Lazariashvili

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Introduction: The growth and development of the economy in the country depend on many factors, the most important of which is the use of innovation. The article analyzes the innovations and the potential of agricultural development in Georgia, presents the problems in the field, justifies the need to introduce innovations, shows the policy of innovation development, evaluates the positive and negative factors of the use of innovations in agriculture. Methodology: The article uses general and specific research methods, namely, analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, comparison and statistical ones: selection, grouping, observation, trend. All these methods used together in the article reveal the main problems and challenges and their development trends. Main Findings: The introduction of innovations for the country has an impact if there is established state support system for business development and the State creates an effective environment for innovation development. As a result, the appropriate establishment gives incentives to increase budget revenues, create new jobs, increase export turnover and improve the overall economic situation in the country. Georgia has sufficient resource potential to create and develop new businesses in agriculture by introducing innovations and contribute to the further socio-economic development of the country. Political and economic stability, the existing legislation in the country, infrastructure, the proper functioning of financial institutions and the qualification of the workforce are crucial for the development of innovations. These criteria determine the political and economic ratings of all countries of the world, which are of great importance to foreign investors in the implementation of innovations. Conclusion: Enactment of agro-insurance will increase the interest and confidence of financial institutions in the farming sector, financial resources will be accessible to the farmers that will facilitate the stable development of the sector in the country. The size of the agro-insurance market in the country should be increased and the new territories should be covered. The State must have an obligation to ensure the risk of farmers and subsidize insurance companies. Based on an analysis of the insurance market the conclusions on agro-insurance issues and the relevant recommendations are proposed. The introduction of innovations in agriculture will have a great impact on the Georgian economy: it will improve the technological base, establish enterprises equipped with modern equipment and methodologies, retrain existing enterprises, promote to improve skills of workers and improve management systems. Based on the analysis, conclusions are made about the prospects for the development of innovation in agriculture and relevant recommendations are proposed.

Keywords: agriculture, development potential, innovation, optimal environment

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Authors: Yi-Hsiang Pan, Chen-Hui Huang, Ching-Hsiang Chen, Wei-Ting Hsu

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The purposes of the study were to explore the students' learning effect of physical education curriculum between merging Teaching Personal and Social Responsibility (TPSR) with sport education model and TPSR with traditional teaching model, which these learning effects included sport self-efficacy, sport enthusiastic, group cohesion, responsibility and game performance. The participants include 3 high school physical education teachers and 6 physical education classes, 133 participants with experience group 75 students and control group 58 students, and each teacher taught an experimental group and a control group for 16 weeks. The research methods used questionnaire investigation, interview, focus group meeting. The research instruments included personal and social responsibility questionnaire, sport enthusiastic scale, group cohesion scale, sport self-efficacy scale and game performance assessment instrument. Multivariate Analysis of covariance and Repeated measure ANOVA were used to test difference of students' learning effects between merging TPSR with sport education model and TPSR with traditional teaching model. The findings of research were: 1) The sport education model with TPSR could improve students' learning effects, including sport self-efficacy, game performance, sport enthusiastic, group cohesion and responsibility. 2) The traditional teaching model with TPSR could improve students' learning effect, including sport self-efficacy, responsibility and game performance. 3) the sport education model with TPSR could improve more learning effects than traditional teaching model with TPSR, including sport self-efficacy, sport enthusiastic,responsibility and game performance. 4) Based on qualitative data about learning experience of teachers and students, sport education model with TPSR significant improve learning motivation, group interaction and game sense. The conclusions indicated sport education model with TPSR could improve more learning effects in physical education curriculum. On other hand, the curricular projects of hybrid TPSR-Sport Education model and TPSR-Traditional Teaching model are both good curricular projects of moral character education, which may be applied in school physical education.

Keywords: character education, sport season, game performance, sport competence

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Authors: Md. Refat Jahan Rakiba, M. Belal Hossaina, Rakesh Kumarc, Md. Akram Ullaha, Sultan Al Nahiand, Nazmun Naher Rimaa, Tasrina Rabia Choudhury, Samia Islam Libaf, Jimmy Yub, Mayeen Uddin Khandakerg, Abdelmoneim Suliemanh, Mohamed Mahmoud Sayedi

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Microplastics (MPs) have become an emerging global pollutant due to their wide spread and dispersion and potential threats to marine ecosystems. However, studies on MPs of estuarine and coastal ecosystems of Bangladesh are very limited or not available. In this study, we conducted the first study on the abundance, distribution, characteristics and potential risk assessment of microplastics in the sediment of Karnaphuli River estuary, Bangladesh. Microplastic particles were extracted from sediments of 30 stations along the estuary by density separation, and then enumerated and characterize by using steromicroscope and Fourier Transform Infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy. In the collected sediment, the number of MPs varied from 22.29 - 59.5 items kg−1 of dry weight (DW) with an average of 1177 particles kg−1 DW. The mean abundance was higher in the downstream and left bank of estuary where the predominant shape, colour, and size of MPs were films (35%), white (19%), and >5000 μm (19%), respectively. The main polymer types were polyethylene terephthalate, polystyrene, polyethylene, cellulose, and nylon. MPs were found to pose risks (low to high) in the sediment of the estuary, with the highest risk occuring at one station near a sewage outlet, according to the results of risk analyses using the pollution risk index (PRI), polymer risk index (H), contamination factors (CFs), and pollution load index (PLI). The single value index, PLI clearly demonastated that all sampling sites were considerably polluted (as PLI >1) with microplastics. H values showed toxic polymers even in lower proportions possess higher polymeric hazard scores and vice versa. This investigation uncovered new insights on the status of MPs in the sediments of Karnaphuli River estuary, laying the groundwork for future research and control of microplastic pollution and management.

Keywords: microplastics, polymers, pollution risk assessment, Karnaphuli esttuary

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Authors: Sarthak Mohapatra, Ajith Babu, Shyam Prasad Ghosh

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The community of gamers has been at the crux of stigmatization and marginalization by the larger society, resulting in dignity erosion. India presents a unique context where e-sports have recently seen large-scale investments, a massive userbase, and appreciable demand for gaming as a career option. Yet the apprehension towards gaming is salient among parents and non-gamers who engage in the de-dignification of gamers, by advocating the discourse of violence promotion via video games. Even the government is relentless in banning games due to data privacy issues. Thus, the current study explores the experiences of gamers and how they navigate these de-dignifying circumstances. The study follows an exploratory qualitative approach where in-depth interviews are used as data collection tools guided by a semi-structured questionnaire. A total of 25 individuals were interviewed comprising casual gamers, professional gamers, and individuals who are indirectly impacted by gaming including parents, relatives, and friends of gamers. Thematic analysis via three-level coding is used to arrive at broad themes (categories) and their sub-themes. The results indicate that the de-dignification of gamers results from attaching stereotypes of introversion, aggression, low intelligence, and low aspirations to them. It is interesting to note that the intensity of de-dignification varies and is more salient in violent shooting games which are perceived to require low cognitive resources to master. The moral disengagement of gamers while playing violent video games becomes the basis for de-dignification. Findings reveal that circumventing de-dignification required gamers to engage in several tactics that included playing behind closed doors, consciously hiding the gamer identity, rationalizing behavior by idolizing professionals, bragging about achievements within the game, and so on. Theoretically, it contributes to dignity and social identity literature by focusing on stereotyping and stigmatization. From a policy perspective, improving legitimacy toward gaming is expected to improve the social standing of gamers and professionals. For practitioners, it is important that proper channels of promotion and communication are used to educate the non-gamers so that the stereotypes blur away.

Keywords: dignity, social identity, stereotyping, video games

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Authors: Abisha Isaac Mohanlal

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Amidst all suspicions and cynicism raised by the legal fraternity, Artificial Intelligence has found its way into the legal system and has revolutionized the conventional forms of legal services delivery. Be it legal argumentation and research or resolution of complex legal disputes; artificial intelligence has crept into all legs of modern day legal services. Its impact has been largely felt by way of big data, legal expert systems, prediction tools, e-lawyering, automated mediation, etc., and lawyers around the world are forced to upgrade themselves and their firms to stay in line with the growth of technology in law. Researchers predict that the future of legal services would belong to artificial intelligence and that the age of human lawyers will soon rust. But as far as the Judiciary is concerned, even in the developed countries, the system has not fully drifted away from the orthodoxy of preferring Natural Intelligence over Artificial Intelligence. Since Judicial decision-making involves a lot of unstructured and rather unprecedented situations which have no single correct answer, and looming questions of legal interpretation arise in most of the cases, discretion and Emotional Intelligence play an unavoidable role. Added to that, there are several ethical, moral and policy issues to be confronted before permitting the intrusion of Artificial Intelligence into the judicial system. As of today, the human judge is the unrivalled master of most of the judicial systems around the globe. Yet, scientists of Artificial Intelligence claim that robot judges can replace human judges irrespective of how daunting the complexity of issues is and how sophisticated the cognitive competence required is. They go on to contend that even if the system is too rigid to allow robot judges to substitute human judges in the recent future, Artificial Intelligence may still aid in other judicial tasks such as drafting judicial documents, intelligent document assembly, case retrieval, etc., and also promote overall flexibility, efficiency, and accuracy in the disposal of cases. By deconstructing the major challenges that Artificial Intelligence has to overcome in order to successfully invade the human- dominated judicial sphere, and critically evaluating the potential differences it would make in the system of justice delivery, the author tries to argue that penetration of Artificial Intelligence into the Judiciary could surely be enhancive and reparative, if not fully transformative.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, judicial decision making, judicial systems, legal services delivery

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Authors: S. Cowley, M. Lawrance, D. Bick, R. McCord

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Technology that automates manual handling (musculoskeletal disorder or MSD) risk assessments is increasingly available to ergonomists, engineers, generalist health and safety practitioners alike. The risk assessment process is generally based on the use of wearable motion sensors that capture information about worker movements for real-time or for posthoc analysis. Traditionally, MSD risk assessment is undertaken with the assistance of a checklist such as that from the SafeWork Australia code of practice, the expert assessor observing the task and ideally engaging with the worker in a discussion about the detail. Automation enables the non-expert to complete assessments and does not always require the assessor to be there. This clearly has cost and time benefits for the practitioner but is it an improvement on the assessment by the human. Human risk assessments draw on the knowledge and expertise of the assessor but, like all risk assessments, are highly subjective. The complexity of the checklists and models used in the process can be off-putting and sometimes will lead to the assessment becoming the focus and the end rather than a means to an end; the focus on risk control is lost. Automated risk assessment handles the complexity of the assessment for the assessor and delivers a simple risk score that enables decision-making regarding risk control. Being machine-based, they are objective and will deliver the same each time they assess an identical task. However, the WHS professional needs to know that this emergent technology asks the right questions and delivers the right answers. Whether it improves the risk assessment process and results or simply distances the professional from the task and the worker. They need clarity as to whether automation of manual task risk analysis and reporting leads to risk control or to a focus on the worker. Critically, they need evidence as to whether automation in this area of hazard management leads to better risk control or just a bigger collection of assessments. Practitioner experienced determinants of this automated manual task risk analysis and reporting being a benefit or distraction will address an understanding of emergent risk assessment technology, its use and things to consider when making decisions about adopting and applying these technologies.

Keywords: automated, manual-handling, risk-assessment, machine-based

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Authors: A. Lefebre, M. Willekens, K. Debackere

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Since the 1990s, patent applications have been booming, especially in the field of telecommunications. However, this increase in patent filings has been associated with an (alleged) decrease in patent quality. The plethora of low-quality patents devalues the high-quality ones, thus weakening the incentives for inventors to patent inventions. Despite the rich literature on strategic patenting, previous research has neglected to emphasize the importance of patent portfolio management and its impact on patent quality. In this paper, we compare related patent portfolios vs. nonrelated patents and investigate whether the patent quality and innovativeness differ between the two types. In the analyses, patent quality is proxied by five individual proxies (number of inventors, claims, renewal years, designated states, and grant lag), and these proxies are then aggregated into a quality index. Innovativeness is proxied by two measures: the originality and radicalness index. Results suggest that related patent portfolios have, on average, a lower patent quality compared to nonrelated patents, thus suggesting that firms use them for strategic purposes rather than for the extended protection they could offer. Even upon testing the individual proxies as a dependent variable, we find evidence that related patent portfolios are of lower quality compared to nonrelated patents, although not all results show significant coefficients. Furthermore, these proxies provide evidence of the importance of adding fixed effects to the model. Since prior research has found that these proxies are inherently flawed and never fully capture the concept of patent quality, we have chosen to run the analyses with individual proxies as supplementary analyses; however, we stick with the comprehensive index as our main model. This ensures that the results are not dependent upon one certain proxy but allows for multiple views of the concept. The presence of divisional applications might be linked to the level of innovativeness of the underlying invention. It could be the case that the parent application is so important that firms are going through the administrative burden of filing for divisional applications to ensure the protection of the invention and the preemption of competition. However, it could also be the case that the preempting is a result of divisional applications being used strategically as a backup plan and prolonging strategy, thus negatively impacting the innovation in the portfolio. Upon testing the level of novelty and innovation in the related patent portfolios by means of the originality and radicalness index, we find evidence for a significant negative association with related patent portfolios. The minimum innovation that has been brought on by the patents in the related patent portfolio is lower compared to the minimum innovation that can be found in nonrelated portfolios, providing evidence for the second argument.

Keywords: patent portfolio management, patent quality, related patent portfolios, strategic patenting

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Authors: Stefano Barone

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Seismic retrofit of buildings through base isolation represents a consolidated protection strategy against earthquakes. It consists in decoupling the ground motion from that of the structure and introducing anti-seismic devices at the base of the building, characterized by high horizontal flexibility and medium/high dissipative capacity. This allows to protect structural elements and to limit damages to non-structural ones. For these reasons, full functionality is guaranteed after an earthquake event. Base isolation is applied extensively to both new and existing buildings. For the latter, it usually does not require any interruption of the structure use and occupants evacuation, a special advantage for strategic buildings such as schools, hospitals, and military buildings. This paper describes the application of seismic isolation to three existing masonry buildings in Italy: Villa “La Maddalena” in Macerata (Marche region), “Giacomo Matteotti” and “Plinio Il Giovane” school buildings in Perugia (Umbria region). The seismic hazard of the sites is characterized by a Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) of 0.213g-0.287g for the Life Safety Limit State and between 0.271g-0.359g for the Collapse Limit State. All the buildings are isolated with a combination of free sliders type TETRON® CD with confined elastomeric disk and anti-seismic rubber isolators type ISOSISM® HDRB to reduce the eccentricity between the center of mass and stiffness, thus limiting torsional effects during a seismic event. The isolation systems are designed to lengthen the original period of vibration (i.e., without isolators) by at least three times and to guarantee medium/high levels of energy dissipation capacity (equivalent viscous damping between 12.5% and 16%). This allows the structures to resist 100% of the seismic design action. This article shows the performances of the supplied anti-seismic devices with particular attention to the experimental dynamic response. Finally, a special focus is given to the main site activities required to isolate a masonry building.

Keywords: retrofit, masonry buildings, seismic isolation, energy dissipation, anti-seismic devices

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Authors: Amadou Wurry Jallow, Adama N. S. Bah, Karamo Bah, Shih-Ye Wang, Kuo-Chung Chu, Chien-Yeh Hsu

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Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major public health challenge with high prevalence, rising incidence, and serious adverse consequences. Developing effective risk prediction models is a cost-effective approach to predicting and preventing complications of chronic kidney disease (CKD). This study aimed to develop an accurate machine learning model that can dynamically identify individuals at risk of CKD using various kinds of diagnostic data, with or without laboratory data, at different follow-up points. Creatinine is a key component used to predict CKD. These models will enable affordable and effective screening for CKD even with incomplete patient data, such as the absence of creatinine testing. This retrospective cohort study included data on 19,429 adults provided by a private research institute and screening laboratory in Taiwan, gathered between 2001 and 2015. Univariate Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were performed to determine the variables with high prognostic values for predicting CKD. We then identified interacting variables and grouped them according to diagnostic data categories. Our models used three types of data gathered at three points in time: non-laboratory, laboratory, and metabolic indices data. Next, we used subgroups of variables within each category to train two machine learning models (Random Forest and XGBoost). Our machine learning models can dynamically discriminate individuals at risk for developing CKD. All the models performed well using all three kinds of data, with or without laboratory data. Using only non-laboratory-based data (such as age, sex, body mass index (BMI), and waist circumference), both models predict chronic kidney disease as accurately as models using laboratory and metabolic indices data. Our machine learning models have demonstrated the use of different categories of diagnostic data for CKD prediction, with or without laboratory data. The machine learning models are simple to use and flexible because they work even with incomplete data and can be applied in any clinical setting, including settings where laboratory data is difficult to obtain.

Keywords: chronic kidney disease, glomerular filtration rate, creatinine, novel metabolic indices, machine learning, risk prediction

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Authors: Naser Kazemi Eilaki, Carolyn Ahmer, Ilona Heldal, Bjarne Christian Hagen

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Older people and people with disabilities are recognized as at-risk groups when it comes to egress and travel from hazard zone to safe places. One's disability can negatively influence her or his escape time, and this becomes even more important when people from this target group live alone. This research deals with the fire safety of mentioned people's buildings by means of probabilistic methods. For this purpose, fire safety is addressed by modeling the egress of our target group from a hazardous zone to a safe zone. A common type of detached house with a prevalent plan has been chosen for safety analysis, and a limit state function has been developed according to the time-line evacuation model, which is based on a two-zone and smoke development model. An analytical computer model (B-Risk) is used to consider smoke development. Since most of the involved parameters in the fire development model pose uncertainty, an appropriate probability distribution function has been considered for each one of the variables with indeterministic nature. To achieve safety and reliability for the at-risk groups, the fire safety index method has been chosen to define the probability of failure (causalities) and safety index (beta index). An improved harmony search meta-heuristic optimization algorithm has been used to define the beta index. Sensitivity analysis has been done to define the most important and effective parameters for the fire safety of the at-risk group. Results showed an area of openings and intervals to egress exits are more important in buildings, and the safety of people would improve with increasing dimensions of occupant space (building). Fire growth is more critical compared to other parameters in the home without a detector and fire distinguishing system, but in a home equipped with these facilities, it is less important. Type of disabilities has a great effect on the safety level of people who live in the same home layout, and people with visual impairment encounter more risk of capturing compared to visual and movement disabilities.

Keywords: fire safety, at-risk groups, zone model, egress time, uncertainty

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Authors: Mohamed Khiatine, Amal Medjnoun, Ramdane Bahar

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The North Algeria is a highly seismic zone, as evidenced by the historical seismicity. During the past two decades, it has experienced several moderate to strong earthquakes. Therefore, the geotechnical engineering problems that involve dynamic loading of soils and soil-structure interaction system requires, in the presence of saturated loose sand formations, liquefaction studies. Bejaia city, located in North-East of Algiers, Algeria, is a part of the alluvial plain which covers an area of approximately 750 hectares. According to the Algerian seismic code, it is classified as moderate seismicity zone. This area had not experienced in the past urban development because of the different hazards identified by hydraulic and geotechnical studies conducted in the region. The low bearing capacity of the soil, its high compressibility and the risk of liquefaction and flooding are among these risks and are a constraint on urbanization. In this area, several cases of structures founded on shallow foundations have suffered damages. Hence, the soils need treatment to reduce the risk. Many field and laboratory investigations, core drilling, pressuremeter test, standard penetration test (SPT), cone penetrometer test (CPT) and geophysical down hole test, were performed in different locations of the area. The major part of the area consists of silty fine sand , sometimes heterogeneous, has not yet reached a sufficient degree of consolidation. The ground water depth changes between 1.5 and 4 m. These investigations show that the liquefaction phenomenon is one of the critical problems for geotechnical engineers and one of the obstacles found in design phase of projects. This paper presents an analysis to evaluate the liquefaction potential, using the empirical methods based on Standard Penetration Test (SPT), Cone Penetration Test (CPT) and shear wave velocity and numerical analysis. These liquefaction assessment procedures indicate that liquefaction can occur to considerable depths in silty sand of harbor zone of Bejaia.

Keywords: earthquake, modeling, liquefaction potential, laboratory investigations

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Authors: Iris W. A. Boot, Anke Wesselius, Maurice P. Zeegers

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Diet may play an essential role in the aetiology of bladder cancer (BC). Vitamin D is involved in various biological functions which have the potential to prevent BC development. Besides, vitamin D also influences the uptake of calcium and phosphorus , thereby possibly indirectly influencing the risk of BC. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relation between vitamin D intake and BC risk. Individual dietary data were pooled from three cohort studies. Food item intake was converted to daily intakes of vitamin D, calcium and phosphorus. Pooled multivariate hazard ratios (HRs), with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained using Cox-regression models. Analyses were adjusted for gender, age and smoking status (Model 1), and additionally for the food groups fruit, vegetables and meat (Model 2). Dose–response relationships (Model 1) were examined using a nonparametric test for trend. In total, 2,871 cases and 522,364 non-cases were included in the analyses. The present study showed an overall increased BC risk for high dietary vitamin D intake (HR: 1.14, 95% CI: 1.03-1.26). A similar increase BC risk with high vitamin D intake was observed among women and for the non-muscle invasive BC subtype, (HR: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.15-1.72, HR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.01-1.27, respectively). High calcium intake decreased the BC risk among women (HR: 0.81, 95% CI: 0.67-0.97). A combined inverse effect on BC risk was observed for low vitamin D intake and high calcium intake (HR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.48-0.93), while a positive effect was observed for high vitamin D intake in combination with low, moderate and high phosphorus (HR: 1.31, 95% CI: 1.09-1.59, HR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.01-1.36, HR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.03-1.31, respectively). Combining all nutrients showed a decreased BC risk for low vitamin D intake, high calcium and moderate phosphor intake (HR: 0.37, 95% CI: 0.18-0.75), and an increased BC risk for moderate intake of all the nutrients (HR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.02-1.38), for high vitamin D and low calcium and phosphor intake (HR: 1.28, 95% CI: 1.01-1.62), and for moderate vitamin D and calcium and high phosphorus intake (HR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.01-1.59). No significant dose-response analyses were observed. The findings of this study show an increased BC risk for high dietary vitamin D intake and a decreased risk for high calcium intake. Besides, the study highlights the importance of examining the effect of a nutrient in combination with complementary nutrients for risk assessment. Future research should focus on nutrients in a wider context and in nutritional patterns.

Keywords: bladder cancer, nutritional oncology, pooled cohort analysis, vitamin D

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Authors: Sopit Tubtimhin, Chaliya Wamaloon, Anchalee Supattagorn

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Background and Significance: Breast cancer is the most frequently diagnosed and leading cause of cancer death among women. This study aims to determine factors potentially predicting recurrence and long-term survival after the first recurrence in surgically treated patients between postmenopausal and younger women. Methods and Analysis: A retrospective cohort study was performed on 498 Thai women with invasive breast cancer, who had undergone mastectomy and been followed-up at Ubon Ratchathani Cancer Hospital, Thailand. We collected based on a systematic chart audit from medical records and pathology reports between January 1, 2002, and December 31, 2011. The last follow-up time point for surviving patients was December 31, 2016. A Cox regression model was used to calculate hazard ratios of recurrence and death. Findings: The median age was 49 (SD ± 9.66) at the time of diagnosis, 47% was post-menopausal women ( ≥ 51years and not experienced any menstrual flow for a minimum of 12 months), and 53 % was younger women ( ˂ 51 years and have menstrual period). Median time from the diagnosis to the last follow-up or death was 10.81 [95% CI = 9.53-12.07] years in younger cases and 8.20 [95% CI = 6.57-9.82] years in postmenopausal cases. The recurrence-free survival (RFS) for younger estimates at 1, 5 and 10 years of 95.0 %, 64.0% and 58.93% respectively, appeared slightly better than the 92.7%, 58.1% and 53.1% for postmenopausal women [HRadj = 1.25, 95% CI = 0.95-1.64]. Regarding overall survival (OS) for younger at 1, 5 and 10 years were 97.7%, 72.7 % and 52.7% respectively, for postmenopausal patients, OS at 1, 5 and 10 years were 95.7%, 70.0% and 44.5 respectively, there were no significant differences in survival [HRadj = 1.23, 95% CI = 0.94 -1.64]. Multivariate analysis identified five risk factors for negatively impacting on survival were triple negative [HR= 2.76, 95% CI = 1.47-5.19], Her2-enriched [HR = 2.59, 95% CI = 1.37-4.91], luminal B [HR = 2.29, 95 % CI=1.35-3.89], not free margin [HR = 1.98, 95%CI=1.00-3.96] and patients who received only adjuvant chemotherapy [HR= 3.75, 95% CI = 2.00-7.04]. Statistically significant risks of overall cancer recurrence were Her2-enriched [HR = 5.20, 95% CI = 2.75-9.80], triple negative [HR = 3.87, 95% CI = 1.98-7.59], luminal B [HR= 2.59, 95% CI = 1.48-4.54,] and patients who received only adjuvant chemotherapy [HR= 2.59, 95% CI = 1.48-5.66]. Discussion and Implications: Outcomes from this studies have shown that postmenopausal women have been associated with increased risk of recurrence and mortality. As the results, it provides useful information for planning the screening and treatment of early-stage breast cancer in the future.

Keywords: breast cancer, menopause status, recurrence-free survival, overall survival

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Authors: Werner Grommes

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The institute of occupational safety and health works in a working group for building a normative standard for illuminated warning vests and did a lot of experiments and measurements as basic work (cooperation). Intelligent car headlamps are able to suppress conventional warning vests with retro-reflective stripes as a disturbing light. Illuminated warning vests are therefore required for occupational safety. However, they must not pose any danger to the wearer or other persons. Here, the risks of the batteries (lithium types), the maximum brightness (glare) and possible interference radiation from the electronics on the implant carrier must be taken into account. The all-around visibility, as well as the required range, play an important role here. For the study, many luminance measurements of already commercially available LEDs and electroluminescent warning vests, as well as their electromagnetic interference fields and aspects of electrical safety, were measured. The results of this study showed that LED lighting is all far too bright and causes strong glare. The integrated controls with pulse modulation and switching regulators cause electromagnetic interference fields. Rechargeable lithium batteries can explode depending on the temperature range. Electroluminescence brings even more hazards. A test method was developed for the evaluation of visibility at distances of 50, 100, and 150 m, including the interview of test persons. A measuring method was developed for the detection of glare effects at close range with the assignment of the maximum permissible luminance. The electromagnetic interference fields were tested in the time and frequency ranges. A risk and hazard analysis were prepared for the use of lithium batteries. The range of values for luminance and risk analysis for lithium batteries were discussed in the standards working group. These will be integrated into the standard. This paper gives a brief overview of the topics of illuminated warning vests, which takes into account the risks and hazards for the vest wearer or others

Keywords: illuminated warning vest, optical tests and measurements, risks, hazards, optical glare effects, LED, E-light, electric luminescent

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Authors: Reda A. Elkhyat, Mahmoud Nasr, Amel A. Tammam, Mohamed A. Ghazy

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Pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) are a unique group of emerging contaminants continuously introduced into the aquatic ecosystem at concentrations capable of inducing adverse effects on humans and aquatic organisms, even at trace levels ranging from ppt to ppm. Amongst the common pharmaceutical emerging pollutants detected in several aquatic environments, acetaminophen has been recognized for its high toxicity. Once released into the aquatic environment, acetaminophen could be degraded by the microbial community and adsorption/ uptake by the plants. Although many studies have investigated the hazard risks of acetaminophen pollutants on aquatic animals, the number of studies demonstrating its removal efficiency and effects on the aquatic plant still needs to be expanded. In this context, this study aims to apply the aquatic plant-based phytoremediation system to eliminate this emerging contaminant from domestic wastewater. The phytoremediation experiment was performed in a hydroponic system containing Eichhornia crassipes and operated under the natural environment at 25°C to 30°C. This system was subjected to synthetic domestic wastewater with the maximum initial chemical oxygen demand (COD) of 390 mg/L and three different acetaminophen concentrations of 25, 50, and 200 mg/L. After 17 d of operation, the phytoremediation system achieved removal efficiencies of about 100% and 85.6±4.2% for acetaminophen and COD, respectively.Moreover, the Eichhornia crassipes could withstand the toxicity associated with increasing the acetaminophen concentrations from 25 to 200 mg/L. This high treatment performance could be assigned to the well-adaptation of the water hyacinth to the phytoremediation factors. Moreover, it has been proposed that this phytoremediation system could be largely supported by phytodegradation and plant uptaking mechanisms; however, detecting the generated intermediates, metabolites, and degradation products are still under investigation. Applying this free-floating plant in wastewater treatment and reducing emerging contaminants would meet the targets of SDGs 3, 6, and. 14. The cost-benefit analysis was performed for the phytoremediation system. The phytoremediation system is financially viable as the net profit was 2921 US $/ y with a payback period of nine years.

Keywords: domestic wastewater, emerging pollutants, hydrophyte Eichhornia crassipes, paracetamol removal efficiency, sustainable development goals (SDGs)

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Authors: Swathi Ganesan, Nalinda Somasiri, Rebecca Jeyavadhanam, Gayathri Karthick

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The COVID-19 crisis presents a substantial and critical hazard to worldwide health. Since the occurrence of the disease in late January 2020 in the UK, the number of infected people confirmed to acquire the illness has increased tremendously across the country, and the number of individuals affected is undoubtedly considerably high. The purpose of this research is to figure out a predictive machine learning archetypal that could forecast COVID-19 cases within the UK. This study concentrates on the statistical data collected from 31st January 2020 to 31st March 2021 in the United Kingdom. Information on total COVID cases registered, new cases encountered on a daily basis, total death registered, and patients’ death per day due to Coronavirus is collected from World Health Organisation (WHO). Data preprocessing is carried out to identify any missing values, outliers, or anomalies in the dataset. The data is split into 8:2 ratio for training and testing purposes to forecast future new COVID cases. Support Vector Machines (SVM), Random Forests, and linear regression algorithms are chosen to study the model performance in the prediction of new COVID-19 cases. From the evaluation metrics such as r-squared value and mean squared error, the statistical performance of the model in predicting the new COVID cases is evaluated. Random Forest outperformed the other two Machine Learning algorithms with a training accuracy of 99.47% and testing accuracy of 98.26% when n=30. The mean square error obtained for Random Forest is 4.05e11, which is lesser compared to the other predictive models used for this study. From the experimental analysis Random Forest algorithm can perform more effectively and efficiently in predicting the new COVID cases, which could help the health sector to take relevant control measures for the spread of the virus.

Keywords: COVID-19, machine learning, supervised learning, unsupervised learning, linear regression, support vector machine, random forest

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Authors: Daphne Sobolev, Niklas Voege

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During the last three decades, consumer ethics perceptions have attracted the attention of a large number of researchers. Nevertheless, little is known about the effect of the cognitive and situational contexts of the decision on ethics judgments. In this paper, the interrelationship between consumers’ ethics perceptions, legality evaluations and mind-sets are explored. Legality evaluations represent the cognitive context of the ethical judgments, whereas mind-sets represent their situational context. Drawing on moral development theories and priming theories, it is hypothesized that both factors are significantly related to consumer ethics perceptions. To test this hypothesis, 289 participants were allocated to three mind-set experimental conditions and a control group. Participants in the mind-set conditions were primed for aggressiveness, politeness or awareness to the negative legal consequences of breaking the law. Mind-sets were induced using a sentence-unscrambling task, in which target words were included. Ethics and legality judgments were assessed using consumer ethics and internet ethics questionnaires. All participants were asked to rate the ethicality and legality of consumer actions described in the questionnaires. The results showed that consumer ethics and legality perceptions were significantly correlated. Moreover, including legality evaluations as a variable in ethics judgment models increased the predictive power of the models. In addition, inducing aggressiveness in participants reduced their sensitivity to ethical issues; priming awareness to negative legal consequences increased their sensitivity to ethics when uncertainty about the legality of the judged scenario was high. Furthermore, the correlation between ethics and legality judgments was significant overall mind-set conditions. However, the results revealed conflicts between ethics and legality perceptions: consumers considered 10%-14% of the presented behaviors unethical and legal, or ethical and illegal. In 10-23% of the questions, participants indicated that they did not know whether the described action was legal or not. In addition, an asymmetry between the effects of aggressiveness and politeness priming was found. The results show that the legality judgments and mind-sets interact with consumer ethics perceptions. Thus, they portray consumer ethical judgments as dynamical processes which are inseparable from other cognitive processes and situational variables. They highlight that legal and ethical education, as well as adequate situational cues at the service place, could have a positive effect on consumer ethics perceptions. Theoretical contribution is discussed.

Keywords: consumer ethics, legality judgments, mind-set, priming, aggressiveness

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Authors: Thaminda Liyanage, Anuga Liyanage, Chamila Kurukulasuriya, Sidath Bandara

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Background: The burden of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is growing rapidly around the world, particularly in Asia. Over the last two decades Sri Lanka has experienced an epidemic of CKD with ever growing number of patients pursuing medical care due to CKD and its complications, specially in the “Mahaweli” river basin in north central region of the island nation. This was apparently a new form of CKD which was not attributable to conventional risk factors such as diabetes mellitus, hypertension or infection and widely termed as “CKD-unknown” or “CKDu”. In the past decade a number of small scale studies were conducted to determine the aetiology, prevalence and complications of CKDu in North Central region. These hospital-based studies did not provide an accurate estimate of the problem as merely 10% or less of the people with CKD are aware of their diagnosis even in developed countries with better access to medical care. Interestingly, similar observations were made on the changing epidemiology of obesity in the region but no formal study was conducted to date to determine the magnitude of obesity burden. Moreover, if increasing obesity in the region is associated with CKD epidemic is yet to be explored. Methods: We will conduct an area wide cross sectional survey among all adult residents of the “Mahaweli” development project area 5, in the North Central Province of Sri Lanka. We will collect relevant medical history, anthropometric measurements, blood and urine for hematological and biochemical analysis. We expect a participation rate of 75%-85% of all eligible participants. Participation in the study is voluntary, there will be no incentives provided for participation. Every analysis will be conducted in a central laboratory and data will be stored securely. We will calculate the prevalence of obesity and chronic kidney disease, overall and by stage using total number of participants as the denominator and report per 1000 population. The association of obesity and CKD will be assessed with regression models and will be adjusted for potential confounding factors and stratified by potential effect modifiers where appropriate. Results: This study will provide accurate information on the prevalence of obesity and CKD in the region. Furthermore, this will explore the association between obesity and CKD, although causation may not be confirmed. Conclusion: Obesity and CKD are increasingly recognized as major public health problems in Sri Lanka. Clearly, documenting the magnitude of the problem is the essential first step. Our study will provide this vital information enabling the government to plan a coordinated response to tackle both obesity and CKD in the region.

Keywords: BMI, Chronic Kidney Disease, obesity, Sri Lanka

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Authors: Shehu Usman Rano Aliyu

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Despite the significance of finance as a major trade lubricant, evidence in the literature alludes to its scarcity and increasing cost, especially in developing countries where small and medium-scale enterprises are worst affected. The creation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AFCFTA) in 2018, an organ of the African Union (AU), was meant to serve as a beacon for deepening economic integration through the removal of trade barriers inhibiting intra-African trade and movement of persons, among others. Hence, this research explores the role Islamic trade finance (ITF) could play in spurring intra- and inter-African trade. The study involves six countries; Egypt, Kenya, Malaysia, Morocco, Nigeria, and Saudi Arabia, and employs survey research, a total of 430 sample data, and SmartPLS Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) techniques in its analyses. We find strong evidence that Shari’ah, legal and regulatory compliance issues of the ITF institutions rhythm with the internal, national, and international compliance requirements equally as the unique instruments applied in ITF. In addition, ITF was found to be largely driven by global economic and political stability, socially responsible finance, ethical and moral considerations, risk-sharing, and resilience of the global Islamic finance industry. Further, SMEs, Governments, and Importers are the major beneficiary sectors. By and large, AfCFTA’s protocols align with the principles of ITF and are therefore suited for the proliferation of Islamic finance in the continent. And, while AML/KYC and BASEL requirements, compliance to AAOIFI and IFSB standards, paucity of Shari'ah experts, threats to global security, and increasing global economic uncertainty pose as major impediments, the future of ITF would be shaped by a greater need for institutional and policy support, global economic cum political stability, robust regulatory framework, and digital technology/fintech. The study calls for the licensing of more ITF institutions in the continent, participation of multilateral institutions in ITF, and harmonization of Shariah standards.

Keywords: AfCFTA, islamic trade finance, murabaha, letter of credit, forwarding

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Authors: Elnaz Saeedi, Jamileh Abolaghasemi, Mohsen Nasiri Tousi, Saeedeh Khosravi

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Goals and Objectives: A typical analysis of survival data involves the modeling of time-to-event data, such as the time till death. A frailty model is a random effect model for time-to-event data, where the random effect has a multiplicative influence on the baseline hazard function. This article aims to investigate the use of gamma frailty model with concomitant variable in order to individualize the prognostic factors that influence the liver cirrhosis patients’ survival times. Methods: During the one-year study period (May 2008-May 2009), data have been used from the recorded information of patients with liver cirrhosis who were scheduled for liver transplantation and were followed up for at least seven years in Imam Khomeini Hospital in Iran. In order to determine the effective factors for cirrhotic patients’ survival in the presence of latent variables, the gamma frailty distribution has been applied. In this article, it was considering the parametric model, such as Exponential and Weibull distributions for survival time. Data analysis is performed using R software, and the error level of 0.05 was considered for all tests. Results: 305 patients with liver cirrhosis including 180 (59%) men and 125 (41%) women were studied. The age average of patients was 39.8 years. At the end of the study, 82 (26%) patients died, among them 48 (58%) were men and 34 (42%) women. The main cause of liver cirrhosis was found hepatitis 'B' with 23%, followed by cryptogenic with 22.6% were identified as the second factor. Generally, 7-year’s survival was 28.44 months, for dead patients and for censoring was 19.33 and 31.79 months, respectively. Using multi-parametric survival models of progressive and regressive, Exponential and Weibull models with regard to the gamma frailty distribution were fitted to the cirrhosis data. In both models, factors including, age, bilirubin serum, albumin serum, and encephalopathy had a significant effect on survival time of cirrhotic patients. Conclusion: To investigate the effective factors for the time of patients’ death with liver cirrhosis in the presence of latent variables, gamma frailty model with parametric distributions seems desirable.

Keywords: frailty model, latent variables, liver cirrhosis, parametric distribution

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Authors: Ibitoye Olabode Clement

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The huge amount of grants for infrastructures development in Tertiary Institutions in Nigeria calls for transparency and accountability in the procurement process. However, questions have been raised concerning the judicious and appropriate use of the funds, and it was doubtful if the institutions complied with due process. This paper examined the causes of non-compliance with the Public Procurement Act (2007) in the procurement of Goods, Works, and Services through either direct or indirect processes of procurement, mostly in Tertiary Institutions of State government subvention institutions in Nigeria. Nigeria has over 120 public universities, polytechnics, and colleges of Education. This paper will take samples of some selected Institutions in southwest Nigeria. The institutions comprise 5 Universities, 5 Polytechnics, and 5 Colleges of Education / Health and Technology. The opinions of the institutions’ Procurement Officers on the tremendous investment through grants and interventions for infrastructure development in Tertiary Education Institutions (TEI) in Nigeria call for transparency and accountability in the procurement process. However, there are a lot of questions have been raised as to the judicious use of the funds, and it was doubtful if the institutions complied with due process. This study examined the causes of non-compliance with the Public Procurement Act (2007) in the procurement of Goods, Works, and Services in most State Government Public Institutions in Southwest Nigeria. Over, 120 public institutions comprising 5 Universities, 5 Polytechnics, and 5 Colleges of Education / Health and Technology were used for the study. The opinions of the institutions’ Procurement Officers on the causes of non-compliance with the Act in their procurement process were sought using a structured questionnaire. The results revealed that non-independent of Procurement Officers, non-compliance with the Act by some at the managerial level, claiming inadequate knowledge of the Act, non-employment of qualified and experienced Procurement officers, insufficient publicity of the Act, and non-existence of corporate governance led to poor management of procurement record and non-provision of incentive, Inability to separate the duties of Internal Auditors and Procurement Officers, Inability to translate procurement entity at large which makes nearly all at departmental level believe they procurement officers. Conclusively, on taking the Procurement Officers through interviewing having it that: the right educational and professional qualifications, understanding of the Act, sufficient cognate working experience, recruiting most professionals needed if not all, and occupying management position will enhance compliance. Hence, in addition, adopting an external empowered department from the Bureau should raise for monitoring the compliance mostly in State Government Tertiary Education Institution. Also, an organizational culture with a corporate governance structure that supports the engagement of the right and qualified personnel to handle procurement, encourages them to perform at their best and rewards excellent service by giving incentives, and operates within an administrative environment devoid of corruption.

Keywords: non compliance of procurement act, tertiary education institution, university, polytechnic and college of education/ health science and technology, Nigeria

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Authors: Seung Oh, Satoshi Okada

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Today, religious organizations that have long existed alongside local people are being challenged by social changes in the districts they control. The influence of religious organizations is declining everywhere as locals seeking diversity and economic benefits become more interested in developing projects that attract investors and increase market value instead of opting for conservation. Religions whose moral and philosophical stance rejects materialism have a limited capacity to act as agents of local development in modern society. However, in Tokyo, the city’s oldest temple, Senso-Ji played a vital role in the local development of Asakusa, as an entertainment district while nevertheless retaining the area’s traditional character, despite almost complete destruction caused by the Tokyo air raids. The temple played a vigorous role as a mediator between the community and the Tokyo Metropolitan Government as a spokesman for common interests. This research, therefore, examines the social conflicts that Senso-Ji has confronted with regard to the pressures of development of Asakusa on the one hand, and the legitimacy of perpetuating its traditional religious and cultural role in local society on the other. First, this article examines Senso-Ji’s place in society based on its location in the history of Japanese Buddhism, which existed to offer spiritual and practical help to the ordinary people, and to investigate its social legitimacy as a local stakeholder and historical institution. Second, this paper considers the impact of the social changes that Asakusa had undergone during the Meiji and Taisho eras, by examining the social conflicts and changes in the Asakusa entertainment district, taking the Tokyo Air Raids as the Inceptive Point (IP). Third, it reconsiders how Senso-Ji responded to today’s growth-oriented local developments, as proposed by Tokyo’s Metropolitan planning authorities along lines commonly seen in all cities. Studying the role of Senso-Ji in the development of Asakusa can serve as a case study to justify the involvement of religious institutions in local issues and as a useful and practical example of progressive development which nevertheless permitted conservation of traditional features, as a result of pressure from social groups in a way that may be useful for other places facing similar problems.

Keywords: Architecture, Urban Design, Urban Planning, Preservation, Conservation, Social Science

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Authors: Emily Schulz

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The ancient Vedic culture from India had traditions that supported all aspects of health, including psychological health, and are relevant in the current era. These traditions have been compiled by Professor Dr. Purna, a rare Himalayan Master, into the Purna Health Management System (PHMS). The PHMS is a unique, holistic, and integrated approach to health management. It is comprised of four key factors: Health, Fitness, and Nutrition (HF&N), Life Balance (Stress Management) (LB-SM), Spiritual Growth and Development (SG&D); and Living in Harmony with the Natural Environment (LHWNE). The purpose of the PHMS is to give people the tools to take responsibility for managing their own holistic health and wellbeing. A study using a cross-sectional mixed-methods anonymous online survey was conducted during 2017-2018. Adult students of Professor Dr. Purna were invited to participate through announcements made at various events He held throughout the globe. Follow-up emails were sent with consenting language for interested parties and provided them with a link to the survey. Participation in the study was completely voluntary and no incentives were given to respond to the survey. The overall aim of the study was to investigate the effectiveness of implementation of the PHMS on practitioners' emotional balance. However, given the holistic nature of the PHMS, survey questions also inquired about participants’ physical health, stress level, ability to manage stress, and wellbeing using Likert scales. The survey also included some open-ended questions to gain an understanding of the participants’ experiences with the PHMS relative to their emotional balance. In total, 52 people out of 253 potential respondents participated in the study. Data were analyzed using nonparametric Spearman’s Rho correlation coefficient (rs) since the data were not on a normal distribution. Statistical significance was set at p < .05. Results of the study suggested that there are moderate to strong statistically significant relationships (p < .001) between participants' frequent implementation of each of the four key factors of the PHMS and self-reported mental/emotional health (HF&N rs = 0.42; LB-SM rs = 0.54; SG&D rs = 0.49; LHWNE rs = 0.45) Results also demonstrated statistically significant relationships (p < .001) between participants' frequent implementation of each of the four key factors of the PHMS and their self-reported ability to manage stress (HF&N rs = 0.44; LB-SM rs = 0.55; SG&D rs = 0.39; LHWNE rs = 0.55). Additionally, those who reported experiencing better physical health also reported better mental/emotional health (rs = 0.49, p < .001) and better ability to manage stress (rs = 0.46, p < .001). The findings of this study suggest that wisdom from the ancient Vedic culture may be useful for those working in the field of psychology and related fields who would like to assist clients in calming their mind and emotions and managing their stress levels.

Keywords: balanced emotions, balanced mind, stress management, Vedic philosophy

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Authors: Ann Enright

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More than ever, animal shelters need to identify ways to reduce the number of animals entering shelter facilities and the incidence of euthanasia. Managing animal overpopulation using euthanasia can have detrimental health and emotional consequences for the shelter staff involved. There are also community expectations with moral and financial implications to consider. To achieve the goals of reducing animal intake and the incidence of euthanasia, shelter best practice involves combining programs, procedures and partnerships to increase live release rates (LRR), reduce the incidence of disease, length of stay (LOS) and shelter intake whilst overall remaining financially viable. Analysing daily processes, tracking outcomes and implementing simple strategies enabled shelter staff to more effectively focus their efforts and achieve amazing results. The objective of this retrospective study was to assess the effect of implementing the capacity for care (C4C) management model. Data focusing on the average daily number of animals on site for a two year period (2016 – 2017) was exported from a shelter management system, Customer Logic (CL) Vet to Excel for manipulation and comparison. Following the implementation of C4C practices the average daily number of animals on site was reduced by >50%, (2016 average 103 compared to 2017 average 49), average LOS reduced by 50% from 8 weeks to 4 weeks and incidence of disease reduced from ≥ 70% to less than 2% of the cats on site at the completion of the study. The total number of stray cats entering the shelter due to council contracts reduced by 50% (486 to 248). Improved cat outcomes were attributed to strategies that increased adoptions and reduced euthanasia of poorly socialized cats, including foster programs. To continue to achieve improvements in LRR and LOS, strategies to decrease intake further would be beneficial, for example, targeted sterilisation programs. In conclusion, the study highlighted the benefits of using C4C as a management tool, delivering a significant reduction in animal intake and euthanasia with positive emotional, financial and community outcomes.

Keywords: animal welfare, capacity for care, cat, euthanasia, length of stay, managed intake, shelter

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Authors: A. O. Ogunkeyede, D. Amuchi, A. A. Adebayo

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Heavy metal contaminations in soil have received great attention. Anthropogenic activities such as vehicular emission, industrial activities and constructions have resulted in elevated concentration of heavy metals in the surface soils. The metal particles can be free from the surface soil when they are disturbed and re-entrained in air, which necessitated the need to investigate surface soil at market environment where adults and children are present on daily basis. This study assesses concentration of heavy metal pollution, ecological and health risk factors in surface soil at Effurun market. 8 samples were collected at household material (EMH), fish (EMFs), fish and commodities (EMF-C), Abattoir (EMA 1 & 2), fruit sections (EMF 1 & 2) and lastly main road (EMMR). The samples were digested and analyzed in triplicate for contents of Lead (Pb), Nickel (Ni), Cadmium (Cd) and Copper (Cu). The mean concentration of the Pb mg/kg (112.27 ± 1.12) and Cu mg/kg (156.14 ± 1.10) were highest in the abattoir section (EMA 1). The mean concentrations of the heavy metal were then used to calculate the ecological and health risk for people within the market. Pb contamination at EMMR, EMF 2, EMFs were moderately while Pb shows considerable contamination at EMH, EMA 1, EMA 2 and EMF-C sections of the Effurun market. The ecological risk factor varies between low to moderate pollution for Pb and EMA 1 has the highest potential ecological risk that falls within moderate pollution. The hazard quotient results show that dermal exposure pathway is the possible means of heavy metal exposure to the traders while ingestion is the least sources of exposure to adult. The ingestion suggested that children around the EMA 1 have the highest possible exposure to children due to hand-to-mouth and object-to-mouth behaviour. The results further show that adults at the EMA1 will have the highest exposure to Pb due to inhalation during burning of cow with tyre that contained Pb and Cu. The carcinogenic risk values of most sections were higher than acceptable values, while Ni at EMMR, EMF 1 & 2, EMFs and EMF-C sections that were below the acceptable values. The cancer risk for inhalation exposure pathway for Pb (1.01E+17) shows a significant level of contamination than all the other sections of the market. It suggested that the people working at the Abattoir were very prone to cancer risk.

Keywords: carcinogenic, ecological, heavy metal, risk

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Authors: Mark White

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The best practices for owners and urban planners to manage tsunami risk have evolved during the last fifty years, and related technical advances have created opportunities for them to obtain better performance than in earlier cataclysmic tsunami inundations. This basic pattern is illustrated at Hilo Bay, the waterfront area of Hilo, Hawaii, an urban seaport which faces the most severe tsunami hazard of the Hawaiian archipelago. Since April 1, 1946, Hilo Bay has endured tsunami waves with a maximum water height exceeding 2.5 meters following four severe earthquakes: Unimak Island (Mw 8.6, 6.1 m) in 1946; Valdiva (Mw 9.5, the largest earthquake of the 20th century, 10.6 m) in 1960; William Prince Sound (Mw 9.2, 3.8 m) in 1964; and Kalapana (Mw 7.7, the largest earthquake in Hawaii since 1868, 2.6 m) in 1975. Ignoring numerous smaller tsunamis during the same time frame, these four cataclysmic tsunamis have caused property losses in Hilo to exceed $1.25 billion and more than 150 deaths. It is reasonable to foresee another cataclysmic tsunami inundating the urban core of Hilo in the next 50 years, which, if unchecked, could cause additional deaths and losses in the hundreds of millions of dollars. Urban planners and individual owners are now in a position to reduce these losses in the next foreseeable tsunami that generates maximum water heights between 2.5 and 10 meters in Hilo Bay. Since 1946, Hilo planners and individual owners have already created buffer zones between the shoreline and its historic downtown area. As these stakeholders make inevitable improvements to the built environment along and adjacent to the shoreline, they should incorporate new methods for better managing the obvious tsunami risk at Hilo. At the planning level, new manmade land forms, such as tsunami parks and inundation reservoirs, should be developed. Individual owners should require their design professionals to include sacrificial seismic and tsunami fuses that will perform well in foreseeable severe events and that can be easily repaired in the immediate aftermath. These investments before the next cataclysmic tsunami at Hilo will yield substantial reductions in property losses and fatalities.

Keywords: hilo, tsunami parks, reservoirs, fuse systems, risk managment

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Authors: Yemane Hailu Fissuh, Zhongzhan Zhang

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In biomedical researches and randomized clinical trials, the most commonly interested outcomes are time-to-event so-called survival data. The importance of robust models in this context is to compare the effect of randomly controlled experimental groups that have a sense of causality. Causal estimation is the scientific concept of comparing the pragmatic effect of treatments conditional to the given covariates rather than assessing the simple association of response and predictors. Hence, the causal effect based semiparametric transformation model was proposed to estimate the effect of treatment with the presence of possibly time-varying covariates. Due to its high flexibility and robustness, the semiparametric transformation model which shall be applied in this paper has been given much more attention for estimation of a causal effect in modeling left-truncated and right censored survival data. Despite its wide applications and popularity in estimating unknown parameters, the maximum likelihood estimation technique is quite complex and burdensome in estimating unknown parameters and unspecified transformation function in the presence of possibly time-varying covariates. Thus, to ease the complexity we proposed the modified estimating equations. After intuitive estimation procedures, the consistency and asymptotic properties of the estimators were derived and the characteristics of the estimators in the finite sample performance of the proposed model were illustrated via simulation studies and Stanford heart transplant real data example. To sum up the study, the bias of covariates was adjusted via estimating the density function for truncation variable which was also incorporated in the model as a covariate in order to relax the independence assumption of failure time and truncation time. Moreover, the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm was described for the estimation of iterative unknown parameters and unspecified transformation function. In addition, the causal effect was derived by the ratio of the cumulative hazard function of active and passive experiments after adjusting for bias raised in the model due to the truncation variable.

Keywords: causal estimation, EM algorithm, semiparametric transformation models, time-to-event outcomes, time-varying covariate

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Authors: Szu-Hua Wang, Yi-Wen Chen

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Urban ecosystems are complex coupled human-environment systems. They contain abundant natural resources for producing natural assets and attract urban assets to consume natural resources for urban development. Urban ecosystems provide several ecosystem services, including provisioning services, regulating services, cultural services, and supporting services. Rapid global climate change makes urban ecosystems and their ecosystem services encountering various natural disasters. Lots of natural disasters have occurred around the world under the constant changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in the past two decades. In Taiwan, hydrological disasters have been paid more attention due to the potential high sensitivity of Taiwan’s cities to climate change, and it impacts. However, climate change not only causes extreme weather events directly but also affects the interactions among human, ecosystem services and their dynamic feedback processes indirectly. Therefore, this study adopts a systematic method, solar energy synthesis, based on the concept of the eco-energy analysis. The Taipei area, the most densely populated area in Taiwan, is selected as the study area. The changes of ecosystem services between 2015 and Typhoon Soudelor have been compared in order to investigate the impacts of extreme precipitation events on ecosystem services. The results show that the forest areas are the largest contributions of energy to ecosystem services in the Taipei area generally. Different soil textures of different subsystem have various upper limits of water contents or substances. The major contribution of ecosystem services of the study area is natural hazard regulation provided by the surface water resources areas. During the period of Typhoon Soudelor, the freshwater supply in the forest areas had become the main contribution. Erosion control services were the main ecosystem service affected by Typhoon Soudelor. The second and third main ecosystem services were hydrologic regulation and food supply. Due to the interactions among ecosystem services, fresh water supply, water purification, and waste treatment had been affected severely.

Keywords: ecosystem, extreme precipitation events, ecosystem services, solar energy synthesis

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Authors: Belyayev P. E., Makeyeva I. R., Mastyuk D. A., Pigasov E. E.

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Previously, the phrase ”hydrogen safety” was often used in terms of NPP safety. Due to the rise of interest to “green” and, particularly, hydrogen power engineering, the problem of hydrogen safety at industrial facilities has become ever more urgent. In Russia, the industrial production of hydrogen is meant to be performed by placing a chemical engineering plant near NPP, which supplies the plant with the necessary energy. In this approach, the production of hydrogen involves a wide range of combustible gases, such as methane, carbon monoxide, and hydrogen itself. Considering probable incidents, sudden combustible gas outburst into open space with further ignition is less dangerous by itself than ignition of the combustible mixture in the presence of many pipelines, reactor vessels, and any kind of fitting frames. Even ignition of 2100 cubic meters of the hydrogen-air mixture in open space gives velocity and pressure that are much lesser than velocity and pressure in Chapman-Jouguet condition and do not exceed 80 m/s and 6 kPa accordingly. However, the space blockage, the significant change of channel diameter on the way of flame propagation, and the presence of gas suspension lead to significant deflagration acceleration and to its transition into detonation or quasi-detonation. At the same time, process parameters acquired from the experiments at specific experimental facilities are not general, and their application to different facilities can only have a conventional and qualitative character. Yet, conducting deflagration and detonation experimental investigation for each specific industrial facility project in order to determine safe infrastructure unit placement does not seem feasible due to its high cost and hazard, while the conduction of numerical experiments is significantly cheaper and safer. Hence, the development of a numerical method that allows the description of reacting flows in domains with complex geometry seems promising. The base for this method is the modification of Kuropatenko method for calculating shock waves recently developed by authors, which allows using it in Eulerian coordinates. The current work contains the results of the development process. In addition, the comparison of numerical simulation results and experimental series with flame propagation in shock tubes with orifice plates is presented.

Keywords: CFD, reacting flow, DDT, gas explosion

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