Search results for: rank estimates

Authors: Antonia Egli, Theo Lynn, Pierangelo Rosati, Gary Sinclair

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The World Health Organization (WHO) defines vaccine hesitancy as the postponement or complete denial of vaccines and estimates a direct linkage to approximately 1.5 million avoidable deaths annually. This figure is not immune to public health developments, as has become evident since the global spread of COVID-19 from Wuhan, China in early 2020. Since then, the proliferation of influential, but oftentimes inaccurate, outdated, incomplete, or false vaccine-related information on social media has impacted hesitancy levels to a degree described by the WHO as an infodemic. The COVID-19 pandemic and related vaccine hesitancy levels have in 2022 resulted in the largest drop in childhood vaccinations of the 21st century, while the prevalence of online stigma towards vaccine hesitant consumers continues to grow. Simultaneously, a second disease has risen to global importance: Monkeypox is an infection originating from west and central Africa and, due to racially motivated online hate, was in August 2022 set to be renamed by the WHO. To better understand public reactions towards two viral infections that became global threats to public health no two years apart, this research examines user replies to threads published by the WHO on Twitter. Replies to two Tweets from the @WHO account declaring COVID-19 and Monkeypox as ‘public health emergencies of international concern’ on January 30, 2020, and July 23, 2022, are gathered using the Twitter application programming interface and user mention timeline endpoint. Research methodology is unique in its analysis of stigmatizing, racist, and hateful content shared on social media within the vaccine discourse over the course of two disease outbreaks. Three distinct analyses are conducted to provide insight into (i) the most prevalent topics and sub-topics among user reactions, (ii) changes in sentiment towards the spread of the two diseases, and (iii) the presence of stigma, racism, and online hate. Findings indicate an increase in hesitancy to accept further vaccines and social distancing measures, the presence of stigmatizing content aimed primarily at anti-vaccine cohorts and racially motivated abusive messages, and a prevalent fatigue towards disease-related news overall. This research provides value to non-profit organizations or government agencies associated with vaccines and vaccination programs in emphasizing the need for public health communication fitted to consumers' vaccine sentiments, levels of health information literacy, and degrees of trust towards public health institutions. Considering the importance of addressing fears among the vaccine hesitant, findings also illustrate the risk of alienation through stigmatization, lead future research in probing the relatively underexamined field of online, vaccine-related stigma, and discuss the potential effects of stigma towards vaccine hesitant Twitter users in their decisions to vaccinate.

Keywords: social marketing, social media, public health communication, vaccines

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Authors: Abdalla Ahmed Abdrabou Emam Eldeib

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For more than a century, the Hague Conference has tackled issues in the most challenging areas of private international law, including family law. Its actions in the realm of international child abduction have been remarkable in two ways during the last two decades. First, on October 25, 1980, the Hague Convention on the Civil Aspects of International Child Abduction (the Convention) was promulgated as an unusually inventive and powerful tool. Second, the Convention is rapidly becoming more prominent in the development of international child law. By that time, overseas travel had grown more convenient, and more couples were marrying or travelling across national lines. At the same time, parental separation and divorce have increased, leading to an increase in international child custody battles. The convention they drafted avoids legal quagmires and addresses extra-legal issues well. It literally restores the kid to its place of usual residence by establishing that the youngster was unlawfully abducted from that position or, alternatively, was wrongfully kept abroad after an allowed visit. Legal custody of a child of a contested parent is usually followed by the child's abduction or unlawful relocation to another country by the non-custodial parent or other persons. If a child's custodial parent lives outside of Egypt, the youngster may be kidnapped and brought to Egypt. It's natural to ask what laws should apply and what legal norms should be followed while hearing individual instances. This study comprehensively evaluates and estimates the relevant Hague Child Abduction Convention and the current situation in Egypt and which law is applicable for child custody. In addition, this research emphasis, detail, and focus on the position of Cross-border parental child abductions in Egypt. Moreover, examine the Islamic law compared to the Hague Convention on Child Custody in detail, as well as mentioning the treatment of Islamic countries in this matter in general and Egypt's treatment of this matter in particular, as well as the criticism directed at Egypt regarding the application and implementation of child custody issues. The present research backs up this method by using non-doctrinal techniques, including surveys, interviews, and dialogues. An important objective of this research is to examine the factors that contribute to parental child abduction. In this case, family court attorneys and other interested parties serve as the target audience from whom data is collected. A survey questionnaire was developed and sent to the target population in order to collect data for future empirical testing to validate the identified critical factors on Parental Child Abduction. The main finding in this study is breaking the reservations of many Muslim countries to join the Hague Convention with regard to child custody., Likewise, clarify the problems of implementation in practice in cases of kidnapping a child from one of the parents and traveling with him outside the borders of the country. Finally, this study is to provide suggestions for reforming the current Egyptian Family Law to make it an effective and efficient for all dispute's resolution mechanism and the possibility of joining The Hague Convention.

Keywords: egyptian family law, Hague child abduction convention, child custody, cross-border parental child abductions in egypt

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Authors: Hsiang-Yu Yuan, Marc Baguelin, Kin O. Kwok, Nimalan Arinaminpathy, Edwin Leeuwen, Steven Riley

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Traditional syndromic surveillance for influenza has substantial public health value in characterizing epidemics. Because the relationship between syndromic incidence and the true infection events can vary from one population to another and from one year to another, recent studies rely on combining serological test results with syndromic data from traditional surveillance into epidemic models to make inference on epidemiological processes of influenza. However, despite the widespread availability of serological data, epidemic models have thus far not explicitly represented antibody titre levels and their correspondence with immunity. Most studies use dichotomized data with a threshold (Typically, a titre of 1:40 was used) to define individuals as likely recently infected and likely immune and further estimate the cumulative incidence. Underestimation of Influenza attack rate could be resulted from the dichotomized data. In order to improve the use of serosurveillance data, here, a refinement of the concept of the stratified immunity within an epidemic model for influenza transmission was proposed, such that all individual antibody titre levels were enumerated explicitly and mapped onto a variable scale of susceptibility in different age groups. Haemagglutination inhibition titres from 523 individuals and 465 individuals during pre- and post-pandemic phase of the 2009 pandemic in Hong Kong were collected. The model was fitted to serological data in age-structured population using Bayesian framework and was able to reproduce key features of the epidemics. The effects of age-specific antibody boosting and protection were explored in greater detail. RB was defined to be the effective reproductive number in the presence of stratified immunity and its temporal dynamics was compared to the traditional epidemic model using use dichotomized seropositivity data. Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) was used to measure the fitness of the model to serological data with different mechanisms of the serological response. The results demonstrated that the differential antibody response with age was present (ΔDIC = -7.0). The age-specific mixing patterns with children specific transmissibility, rather than pre-existing immunity, was most likely to explain the high serological attack rates in children and low serological attack rates in elderly (ΔDIC = -38.5). Our results suggested that the disease dynamics and herd immunity of a population could be described more accurately for influenza when the distribution of immunity was explicitly represented, rather than relying only on the dichotomous states 'susceptible' and 'immune' defined by the threshold titre (1:40) (ΔDIC = -11.5). During the outbreak, RB declined slowly from 1.22[1.16-1.28] in the first four months after 1st May. RB dropped rapidly below to 1 during September and October, which was consistent to the observed epidemic peak time in the late September. One of the most important challenges for infectious disease control is to monitor disease transmissibility in real time with statistics such as the effective reproduction number. Once early estimates of antibody boosting and protection are obtained, disease dynamics can be reconstructed, which are valuable for infectious disease prevention and control.

Keywords: effective reproductive number, epidemic model, influenza epidemic dynamics, stratified immunity

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Authors: Khulud Alhussain, Anna Gavine, Stephen Macgillivray, Sushila Chowdhry

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Background: Estimates show that by the year 2030, mental illness will account for more than half of the global economic burden, second to non-communicable diseases. Often, the perinatal period is characterised by psychological ambivalence and a mixed anxiety-depressive condition. Maternal mental disorder is associated with perinatal anxiety and depression and affects breastfeeding behaviors. Studies also indicate that maternal mental health can considerably influence a baby's health in numerous aspects and impact the newborn health due to lack of adequate breastfeeding. However, studies reporting factors associated with breastfeeding behaviors are predominantly quantitative. Therefore, it is not clear what literature is available to understand the factors affecting breastfeeding and perinatal women’s perspectives and experiences. Aim: This review aimed to explore the perceptions and experiences of women with perinatal anxiety and depression, as well as how these experiences influence their breastfeeding behaviours. Methods: A systematic literature review of qualitative studies in line with the Enhancing Transparency in Reporting the Synthesis of Qualitative Research (ENTREQ). Four electronic databases (CINAHL, PsycINFO, Embase, and Google Scholar) were explored for relevant studies using a search strategy. The search was restricted to studies published in the English language between 2000 and 2022. Findings from the literature were screened using a pre-defined screening criterion and the quality of eligible studies was appraised using the Walsh and Downe (2006) checklist. Findings were extracted and synthesised based on Braun and Clark. The review protocol was registered on PROSPERO (Ref: CRD42022319609). Result: A total of 4947 studies were identified from the four databases. Following duplicate removal and screening 16 studies met the inclusion criteria. The studies included 87 pregnant and 302 post-partum women from 12 countries. The participants were from a variety of economic, regional, and religious backgrounds, mainly from the age of 18 to 45 years old. Three main themes were identified: Barriers to breastfeeding, breastfeeding facilitators, emotional disturbance, and breastfeeding. Seven subthemes emerged from the data: expectation versus reality, uncertainly about maternal competencies, body image and breastfeeding, lack of sufficient breastfeeding support for family and caregivers’ support, influences positive breastfeeding practices, breastfeeding education, and causes of mental strain among breastfeeding women. Breastfeeding duration is affected in women with mental health disorders, irrespective of their desire to breastfeed. Conclusion: There is significant empirical evidence that breastfeeding behaviour and perinatal mental disturbance are linked. However, there is a lack of evidence to apply the findings to Saudi women due to lack of empirical qualitative information. To improve the psychological well-being of mothers, it is crucial to explore and recognise any concerns with their mental, physical, and emotional well-being. Therefore, robust research is needed so that breastfeeding intervention researchers and policymakers can focus on specifically what needs to be done to help mentally distressed perinatal women and their new-born.

Keywords: pregnancy, perinatal period, anxiety, depression, emotional disturbance, breastfeeding

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Authors: Patrick Weber, Daniel Gredig

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Background and Purpose: Research has well documented the impact of discrimination and micro-aggressions on the wellbeing of gay men and, especially, adolescents. For the prevention of homophobic behavior against gay adolescents, however, the focus has to shift on those who discriminate: For the design and tailoring of prevention and intervention, it is important to understand the factors responsible for homophobic behavior such as, for example, verbal abuse. Against this background, the present study aimed to assess homophobic – in terms of verbally abusive – behavior against gay people among high school students. Furthermore, it aimed to establish the predictors of the reported behavior by testing an explanatory model. This model posits that homophobic behavior is determined by negative attitudes and knowledge. These variables are supposed to be predicted by the acceptance of traditional gender roles, religiosity, orientation toward social dominance, contact with gay men, and by the perceived expectations of parents, friends and teachers. These social-cognitive variables in turn are assumed to be determined by students’ gender, age, immigration background, formal school level, and the discussion of gay issues in class. Method: From August to October 2016, we visited 58 high school classes in 22 public schools in a county in Switzerland, and asked the 8th and 9th year students on three formal school levels to participate in survey about gender and gay issues. For data collection, we used an anonymous self-administered questionnaire filled in during class. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and structural equation modelling (Generalized Least Square Estimates method). The sample included 897 students, 334 in the 8th and 563 in the 9th year, aged 12–17, 51.2% being female, 48.8% male, 50.3% with immigration background. Results: A proportion of 85.4% participants reported having made homophobic statements in the 12 month before survey, 4.7% often and very often. Analysis showed that respondents’ homophobic behavior was predicted directly by negative attitudes (β=0.20), as well as by the acceptance of traditional gender roles (β=0.06), religiosity (β=–0.07), contact with gay people (β=0.10), expectations of parents (β=–0.14) and friends (β=–0.19), gender (β=–0.22) and having a South-East-European or Western- and Middle-Asian immigration background (β=0.09). These variables were predicted, in turn, by gender, age, immigration background, formal school level, and discussion of gay issues in class (GFI=0.995, AGFI=0.979, SRMR=0.0169, CMIN/df=1.199, p>0.213, adj. R2 =0.384). Conclusion: Findings evidence a high prevalence of homophobic behavior in the responding high school students. The tested explanatory model explained 38.4% of the assessed homophobic behavior. However, data did not found full support of the model. Knowledge did not turn out to be a predictor of behavior. Except for the perceived expectation of teachers and orientation toward social dominance, the social-cognitive variables were not fully mediated by attitudes. Equally, gender and immigration background predicted homophobic behavior directly. These findings demonstrate the importance of prevention and provide also leverage points for interventions against anti-gay bias in adolescents – also in social work settings as, for example, in school social work, open youth work or foster care.

Keywords: discrimination, high school students, gay men, predictors, Switzerland

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Authors: Mark R. Leipnik, Dahlia Durga, Linda Johnson-Bhola

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Kaieteur is the most iconic National Park in the rainforest-clad nation of Guyana in South America. However, the magnificent 226-meter-high waterfall at its center is virtually inaccessible by surface transportation, and the occasional charter flights to the small airstrip in the park are too expensive for many tourists and residents. Thus, the largest waterfall in all of Amazonia, where the Potaro River plunges over a single free drop twice as high as Victoria Falls, remains preserved in splendid isolation inside a 57,000-hectare National Park established by the British in 1929, in the deepest recesses of a remote jungle canyon. Kaieteur Falls are largely unseen firsthand, but images of the falls are depicted on the Guyanese twenty dollar note, in every Guyanese tourist promotion, and on many items in the national capital of Georgetown. Georgetown is only 223-241 kilometers away from the falls. The lack of a single mileage figure demonstrates there is no single overland route. Any journey, except by air, involves changes of vehicles, a ferry ride, and a boat ride up a jungle river. It also entails hiking for many hours to view the falls. Surface access from Georgetown (or any city) is thus a 3-5 day-long adventure; even in the dry season, during the two wet seasons, travel is a particularly sticky proposition. This journey was made overland by the paper's co-author Dahlia Durga. This paper focuses on potential ways to improve overland tourist access to Kaieteur National Park from Georgetown. This is primarily a GIS-based analysis, using multiple criteria to determine the least cost means of creating all-weather road access to the area near the base of the falls while minimizing distance and elevation changes. Critically, it also involves minimizing the number of new bridges required to be built while utilizing the one existing ferry crossings of a major river. Cost estimates are based on data from road and bridge construction engineers operating currently in the interior of Guyana. The paper contains original maps generated with ArcGIS of the potential routes for such an overland connection, including the one deemed optimal. Other factors, such as the impact on endangered species habitats and Indigenous populations, are considered. This proposed infrastructure development is taking place at a time when Guyana is undergoing the largest boom in its history due to revenues from offshore oil and gas development. Thus, better access to the most important tourist attraction in the country is likely to happen eventually in some manner. But the questions of the most environmentally sustainable and least costly alternatives for such access remain. This paper addresses those questions and others related to access to this magnificent natural treasure and the tradeoffs such access will have on the preservation of the currently pristine natural environment of Kaieteur Falls.

Keywords: nature tourism, GIS, Amazonia, national parks

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Authors: N. Rambabu, H. Gururaj, Reynold Washington, Oommen George

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Motivation: Under the USAID Strengthening Health Outcomes through Private Sector (SHOPS-TB) initiative, Karnataka Health Promotion Trust (KHPT) with technical support of Abt associates is implementing a TB prevention and care model in Karnataka State, South India. KHPT is the interface agency between the public and private sectors, and providers and the target community facilitating early TB case detection and enhancing treatment compliance through private health care providers (pHCP) engagement in RNTCP. The project coverage is 0.84 million urban poor from 663 slums in 12 districts of Karnataka. Problem Statement: India with the highest burden of global TB (26%) and two million cases annually, accounts for approximately one fifth of the global incidence. WHO estimates 300,000 people die from TB annually in India. India expanded the coverage of Directly Observed Treatment, Short-course chemotherapy (DOTS) to the entire country as early as 2006. However, the performance of RNTCP has not been uniform across states. While the national annual new smear-positive (NSP) case notification rate is 53, it is much lower at 47 in Karnataka. A third of TB patients in India reside in urban slums. Approach: Under SHOPS, KHPT actively engages with communities through key opinion leaders and community structures. Interpersonal communication, by Outreach workers through house-to-house visits and at aggregation points, is the primary method used for communication about TB and its management and to increase demand for sputum examination and DOTS. pHCP are mapped, trained and mentored by KHPT. ORWs also provide patient and family counseling on TB treatment, side effects and adherence, screen close contacts of index patients especially children under 6 years of age and screen co-morbidities including HIV, diabetes and malnutrition and risk factors including alcoholism, tobacco use, occupational hazards making appropriate accompanied or documented referrals. A treatment ‘buddy’ system for the patients involving close friends or family members, ICT-based support, DOTS Prerana (inspiration) groups of TB patients, family members and community, DOTS Mitra (friend) helpline services are also used for care and support services. Results: The intervention educated 39988 slum dwellers, referred 1731 chest symptomatics, tested 1061 patients and initiated 248 patients on anti-TB treatment within three months of intervention through continuous community engagement. Conclusions: The intervention’s potential to increase access to preferred health care providers, reduce patient and health system delays in diagnosis and initiation of treatment, improve health seeking behaviour and enhance compliance of pHCPs to standard treatment protocols is being monitored. Initial results are promising.

Keywords: DOTS, KHPT, health outcomes, public and private sector

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Authors: Dominik Kowitzke

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Housing constructions have direct and indirect environmental impacts especially caused by soil sealing and gray energy consumption related to the use of construction materials. Accordingly, the German government introduced regulations limiting additional annual soil sealing. At the same time, in many regions like metropolitan areas the demand for further housing is high and of current concern in the media and politics. It is argued that meeting this demand by making better use of the existing housing supply is more sustainable than the construction of new housing units. In this context, targeting the phenomenon of so-called over the housing of empty nest households seems worthwhile to investigate for its potential to free living space and thus, reduce the need for new housing constructions and related environmental harm. Over housing occurs if no space adjustment takes place in household lifecycle stages when children move out from home and the space formerly created for the offspring is from then on under-utilized. Although in some cases the housing space consumption might actually meet households’ equilibrium preferences, frequently space-wise adjustments to the living situation doesn’t take place due to transaction or information costs, habit formation, or government intervention leading to increasing costs of relocations like real estate transfer taxes or tenant protection laws keeping tenure rents below the market price. Moreover, many detached houses are not long-term designed in a way that freed up space could be rent out. Findings of this research based on socio-economic survey data, indeed, show a significant difference between the living space of empty nest and a comparison group of households which never had children. The approach used to estimate the average difference in living space is a linear regression model regressing the response variable living space on a two-dimensional categorical variable distinguishing the two groups of household types and further controls. This difference is assumed to be the under-utilized space and is extrapolated to the total amount of empty nests in the population. Supporting this result, it is found that households that move, despite market frictions impairing the relocation, after children left their home tend to decrease the living space. In the next step, only for areas with tight housing markets in Germany and high construction activity, the total under-utilized space in empty nests is estimated. Under the assumption of full substitutability of housing space in empty nests and space in new dwellings in these locations, it is argued that in a perfect market with empty nest households consuming their equilibrium demand quantity of housing space, dwelling constructions in the amount of the excess consumption of living space could be saved. This, on the other hand, would prevent environmental harm quantified in carbon dioxide equivalence units related to average constructions of detached or multi-family houses. This study would thus provide information on the amount of under-utilized space inside dwellings which is missing in public data and further estimates the external effect of over housing in environmental terms.

Keywords: empty nests, environment, Germany, households, over housing

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Authors: Netalie Shloim, Brian Brown, Siobhan Hugh-Jones, Jane Plastow, Diana Setiyawati, Anna Madill

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In June 2021, the World Health Organization launched its guidance and technical packages on community mental health services, stressing a human rights-based approach to care. This initiative stems from an increasing acknowledgment of the role mental health plays in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. Nevertheless, mental health remains a relatively neglected research area and the estimates for untreated mental disorders in low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs) are as high as 78% for adults. Moreover, the development sector and research programs too often side-line mental health as a privilege in the face of often immediate threats to life and livelihood. As a way of addressing this problem, this study aimed to examine past or ongoing GCRF projects to see if there were opportunities where mental health impact could have been achieved without compromising a study's main aim and without overburdening a project. Projects funded by the UKRI Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) were analyzed. This program was initiated in 2015 to support cutting-edge research that addresses the challenges faced by developing countries. By the end of May 2020, a total of 15,279 projects were funded of which only 3% had an explicit mental health focus. A sample of 36 non-mental-health-focused projects was then sampled for diversity across research council, challenge portfolio and world region. Each of these 36 projects was coded by two coders for opportunities to embed mental health impact. To facilitate coding, the literature was inspected for dimensions relevant to LMIC settings. Three main psychological and three main social dimensions were identified: promote a positive sense of self; promote positive emotions, safe expression and regulation of challenging emotions, coping strategies, and help-seeking; facilitate skills development; and facilitate community-building; preserve sociocultural identity; support community mobilization. Coding agreement was strong on missed opportunities for mental health impact on the three social dimensions: support community mobilization (92%), facilitate community building (83%), preserve socio-cultural identity (70%). Coding agreement was reasonably strong on missed opportunities for mental health impact on the three psychological dimensions: promote positive emotions (67%), facilitate skills development (61%), positive sense of self (58%). In order of frequency, the agreed perceived opportunities from the highest to lowest are: support community mobilization, facilitate community building, facilitate skills development, promote a positive sense of self, promote positive emotions, preserve sociocultural identity. All projects were considered to have an opportunity to support community mobilization and to facilitate skills development by at least one coder. Findings provided support that there were opportunities to embed mental health impact in research across the range of development sectors and identifies what kind of missed opportunities are most frequent. Hence, mainstreaming mental health has huge potential to tackle the lack of priority and funding it has attracted traditionally. The next steps are to understand the barriers to mainstreaming mental health and to work together to overcome them.

Keywords: GCRF, mental health, psychosocial wellbeing, LMIC

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Authors: Bill Wason

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143 Crude Palm Oil Coop mills on Sumatra Island are participating in a program to transfer land from defaulted estates to small farmers while improving the sustainability of palm production to allow for biofuel & food production. GCarbon will be working with farmers to transfer technology, fertilizer, and trees to double the yield from the current baseline of 3.5 tons to at least 7 tons of oil per ha (25 tons of fruit bunches). This will be measured via evaluation of yield comparisons between participant and non-participant farms. We will also capture methane from Palm Oil Mill Effluent (POME)throughbelt press filtering. Residues will be weighed and a formula used to estimate methane emission reductions based on methodologies developed by other researchers. GCarbon will also cover mill ponds with a non-permeable membrane and collect methane for energy or steam production. A system for accelerating methane production involving ozone and electro-flocculation will be tested to intensifymethane generation and reduce the time for wastewater treatment. A meta-analysis of research on sweet potatoes and sorghum as rotation crops will look at work in the Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil where5 ha. oftest plots of industrial sweet potato have achieved yields of 60 tons and 40 tons per ha. from 2 harvests in one year (100 MT/ha./year). Field trials will be duplicated in Bom Jesus Das Selvas, Maranhaothat will test varieties of sweet potatoes to measure yields and evaluate disease risks in a very different soil and climate of NE Brazil. Hog methane will also be captured. GCarbon Brazil, Coop Sisal, and an Australian research partner will plant several varieties of agave and use agronomic procedures to get yields of 880 MT per ha. over 5 years. They will also plant new varieties expected to get 3500 MT of biomass after 5 years (176-700 MT per ha. per year). The goal is to show that the agave can adapt to Brazil’s climate without disease problems. The study will include a field visit to growing sites in Australia where agave is being grown commercially for biofuels production. Researchers will measure the biomass per hectare at various stages in the growing cycle, sugar content at harvest, and other metrics to confirm the yield of sugar per ha. is up to 10 times greater than sugar cane. The study will look at sequestration rates from measuring soil carbon and root accumulation in various plots in Australia to confirm carbon sequestered from 5 years of production. The agave developer estimates that 60-80 MT of sequestration per ha. per year occurs from agave. The three study efforts in 3 different countries will define a feedstock pathway for jet fuel that involves very high yield crops that can produce 2 to 10 times more biomass than current assumptions. This cost-effective and less land intensive strategy will meet global jet fuel demand and produce huge quantities of food for net zero aviation and feeding 9-10 billion people by 2050

Keywords: zero emission SAF, methane capture, food-fuel integrated refining, new crops for SAF

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Authors: Vaiddehi Bansal, Ridhi Sahai, Kareem Kysia

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Overseas labor migration is currently one of the most important contributors to the economy of Bangladesh and is a highly profitable form of labor for Gulf Cooperative Council (GCC) countries. In 2019, 700,159 migrant workers from Bangladeshtraveled abroad for employment. GCC countries are a major destination for Bangladeshi migrant workers, with Saudi Arabia being the most common destination for Bangladeshi migrant workers since 2016. Despite the high rate of migration between these countries every year, the OLR industry remains complex and often leaves migrants susceptible to human trafficking, forced labor, and modern slavery. While the prevalence of forced labor among Bangladeshi migrants in GCC countries is still unknown, the IOM estimates international migrant workers comprise one fourth of the victims of forced labor. Moreover, the onset of the global COVID-19 pandemic has exposed migrant workers to additional adverse situations, making them even more vulnerable to forced labor and health risks. This paper presents findings from a rapid assessment of the impacts of COVID-19 on OLR in Bangladesh, with an emphasis on the increased risk of forced labor among vulnerable migrant worker populations, particularly women.Rapid reviews are a useful approach to swiftly provide actionable evidence for informed decision-making during emergencies, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. The research team conducted semi-structured key information interviews (KIIs) with a range of stakeholders, including government officials, local NGOs, international organizations, migration researchers, and formal and informal recruiting agencies, to obtain insights on the multi-facted impacts of COVID-19 on the OLR sector. The research team also conducted a comprehensive review of available resources, including media articles, blogs, policy briefs, reports, white papers, and other online content, to triangulate findings from the KIIs. After screening for inclusion criteria, a total of 110 grey literature documents were included in the review. A total of 31 KIIs were conducted, data from which was transcribed and translated from Bangla to English, andanalyzed using a detailed codebook. Findings indicate that there was limited reintegration support for returnee migrants. Facing increasing amounts of debt, financial insecurity, and social discrimination, returnee migrants, were extremely vulnerable to forced labor and exploitation. Growing financial debt and limited job opportunities in their home country will likely push migrants to resort to unsafe migration channels. Evidence suggests that women, who are primarily domestic works in GCC countries, were exposed to increased risk of forced labor and workplace violence. Due to stay-at-home measures, women migrant workers were tasked with additional housekeeping working and subjected to longer work hours, wage withholding, and physical abuse. In Bangladesh, returnee women migrant workers also faced an increased risk of domestic violence.

Keywords: forced labor, migration, gender, human trafficking

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Authors: Zahirah Dhurmeea, Iker Zudaire, Heidi Pethybridge, Emmanuel Chassot, Maria Cedras, Natacha Nikolic, Jerome Bourjea, Wendy West, Chandani Appadoo, Nathalie Bodin

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Scientific advice on the status of fish stocks relies on indicators that are based on strong assumptions on biological parameters such as condition, maturity and fecundity. Currently, information on the biology of albacore tuna, Thunnus alalunga, in the Indian Ocean is scarce. Consequently, many parameters used in stock assessment models for Indian Ocean albacore originate largely from other studied stocks or species of tuna. Inclusion of incorrect biological data in stock assessment models would lead to inappropriate estimates of stock status used by fisheries manager’s to establish future catch allowances. The reproductive biology of albacore tuna in the western Indian Ocean was examined through analysis of the sex ratio, spawning season, length-at-maturity (L50), spawning frequency, fecundity and fish condition. In addition, the total lipid content (TL) and lipid class composition in the gonads, liver and muscle tissues of female albacore during the reproductive cycle was investigated. A total of 923 female and 867 male albacore were sampled from 2013 to 2015. A bias in sex-ratio was found in favour of females with fork length (LF) <100 cm. Using histological analyses and gonadosomatic index, spawning was found to occur between 10°S and 30°S, mainly to the east of Madagascar from October to January. Large females contributed more to reproduction through their longer spawning period compared to small individuals. The L50 (mean ± standard error) of female albacore was estimated at 85.3 ± 0.7 cm LF at the vitellogenic 3 oocyte stage maturity threshold. Albacore spawn on average every 2.2 days within the spawning region and spawning months from November to January. Batch fecundity varied between 0.26 and 2.09 million eggs and the relative batch fecundity (mean  standard deviation) was estimated at 53.4 ± 23.2 oocytes g-1 of somatic-gutted weight. Depending on the maturity stage, TL in ovaries ranged from 7.5 to 577.8 mg g-1 of wet weight (ww) with different proportions of phospholipids (PL), wax esters (WE), triacylglycerol (TAG) and sterol (ST). The highest TL were observed in immature (mostly TAG and PL) and spawning capable ovaries (mostly PL, WE and TAG). Liver TL varied from 21.1 to 294.8 mg g-1 (ww) and acted as an energy (mainly TAG and PL) storage prior to reproduction when the lowest TL was observed. Muscle TL varied from 2.0 to 71.7 g-1 (ww) in mature females without a clear pattern between maturity stages, although higher values of up to 117.3 g-1 (ww) was found in immature females. TL results suggest that albacore could be viewed predominantly as a capital breeder relying mostly on lipids stored before the onset of reproduction and with little additional energy derived from feeding. This study is the first one to provide new information on the reproductive development and classification of albacore in the western Indian Ocean. The reproductive parameters will reduce uncertainty in current stock assessment models which will eventually promote sustainability of the fishery.

Keywords: condition, size-at-maturity, spawning behaviour, temperate tuna, total lipid content

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Authors: X. Simon, D. Copena, M. Montero

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The last decades have witnessed a significant increase in renewable energy, especially wind energy, to achieve sustainable development. Specialized literature in this field has carried out interesting case studies to extensively analyze both the environmental benefits of this energy and its social acceptance. However, to the best of our knowledge, work to date makes no analysis of the role of private owners of lands with wind potential within a broader territory of strong wind implantation, nor does it estimate their economic incomes relating them to social acceptance. This work fills this gap by focusing on Galicia, territory housing over 4,000 wind turbines and almost 3,400 MW of power. The main difficulty in getting this financial information is that it is classified, not public. We develop methodological techniques (semi- structured interviews and work groups), inserted within the Participatory Research, to overcome this important obstacle. In this manner, the work directly compiles qualitative and quantitative information on the processes as well as the economic results derived from implementing wind energy in Galicia. During the field work, we held 106 semi-structured interviews and 32 workshops with owners of lands occupied by wind farms. The compiled information made it possible to create the socioeconomic database on wind energy in Galicia (SDWEG). This database collects a diversity of quantitative and qualitative information and contains economic information on the income received by the owners of lands occupied by wind farms. In the Galician case, regulatory framework prevented local participation under the community wind farm formula. The possibility of local participation in the new energy model narrowed down to companies wanting to install a wind farm and demanding land occupation. The economic mechanism of local participation begins here, thus explaining the level of acceptance of wind farms. Land owners can receive significant income given that these payments constitute an important source of economic resources, favor local economic activity, allow rural areas to develop productive dynamism projects and improve the standard of living of rural inhabitants. This work estimates that land owners in Galicia perceive about 10 million euros per year in total wind revenues. This represents between 1% and 2% of total wind farm invoicing. On the other hand, relative revenues (Euros per MW), far from the amounts reached in other spaces, show enormous payment variability. This signals the absence of a regulated market, the predominance of partial agreements, and the existence of asymmetric positions between owners and developers. Sustainable development requires the replacement of conventional technologies by low environmental impact technologies, especially those that emit less CO₂. However, this new paradigm also requires rural owners to participate in the income derived from the structural transformation processes linked to sustainable development. This paper demonstrates that regulatory framework may contribute to increasing sustainable technologies with high social acceptance without relevant local economic participation.

Keywords: regulatory framework, social acceptance, sustainable development, wind energy, wind income for landowners

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Authors: Jennifer Buz, Alvin Spivey

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The most common greenhouse gas emitted through human activities, carbon dioxide (CO2), is naturally consumed by plants during photosynthesis. This process is actively being monetized by companies wishing to offset their carbon dioxide emissions. For example, companies are now able to purchase protections for vegetated land due-to-be clear cut or purchase barren land for reforestation. Therefore, by actively preventing the destruction/decay of plant matter or by introducing more plant matter (reforestation), a company can theoretically offset some of their emissions. One of the biggest issues in the carbon credit market is validating and verifying carbon offsets. There is a need for a system that can accurately and frequently ensure that the areas sold for carbon credits have the vegetation mass (and therefore for carbon offset capability) they claim. Traditional techniques for measuring vegetation mass and determining health are costly and require many person-hours. Orbital Sidekick offers an alternative approach that accurately quantifies carbon mass and assesses vegetation health through satellite hyperspectral imagery, a technique which enables us to remotely identify material composition (including plant species) and condition (e.g., health and growth stage). How much carbon a plant is capable of storing ultimately is tied to many factors, including material density (primarily species-dependent), plant size, and health (trees that are actively decaying are not effectively storing carbon). All of these factors are capable of being observed through satellite hyperspectral imagery. This abstract focuses on speciation. To build a species classification model, we matched pixels in our remote sensing imagery to plants on the ground for which we know the species. To accomplish this, we collaborated with the researchers at the Teakettle Experimental Forest. Our remote sensing data comes from our airborne “Kato” sensor, which flew over the study area and acquired hyperspectral imagery (400-2500 nm, 472 bands) at ~0.5 m/pixel resolution. Coverage of the entire teakettle experimental forest required capturing dozens of individual hyperspectral images. In order to combine these images into a mosaic, we accounted for potential variations of atmospheric conditions throughout the data collection. To do this, we ran an open source atmospheric correction routine called ISOFIT1 (Imaging Spectrometer Optiman FITting), which converted all of our remote sensing data from radiance to reflectance. A database of reflectance spectra for each of the tree species within the study area was acquired using the Teakettle stem map and the geo-referenced hyperspectral images. We found that a wide variety of machine learning classifiers were able to identify the species within our images with high (>95%) accuracy. For the most robust quantification of carbon mass and the best assessment of the health of a vegetated area, speciation is critical. Through the use of high resolution hyperspectral data, ground-truth databases, and complex analytical techniques, we are able to determine the species present within a pixel to a high degree of accuracy. These species identifications will feed directly into our carbon mass model.

Keywords: hyperspectral, satellite, carbon, imagery, python, machine learning, speciation

Procedia PDF Downloads 107

Authors: Alexander David Natanson

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This paper focuses on the effect of Sanctuary and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) policies on local economies. "Sanctuary cities" refers to municipal jurisdictions that limit their cooperation with the federal government's efforts to enforce immigration. Using county-level data from the American Community Survey and ICE data on economic indicators from 2006 to 2018, this study isolates the effects of local immigration policies on U.S. counties. The investigation is accomplished by simultaneously studying the policies' effects in counties where immigrants' families are persecuted via collaboration with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), in contrast to counties that provide protections. The analysis includes a difference-in-difference & two-way fixed effect model. Results are robust to nearest-neighbor matching, after the random assignment of treatment, after running estimations using different cutoffs for immigration policies, and with a regression discontinuity model comparing bordering counties with opposite policies. Results are also robust after restricting the data to a single-year policy adoption, using the Sun and Abraham estimator, and with event-study estimation to deal with the staggered treatment issue. In addition, the study reverses the estimation to understand what drives the decision to choose policies to detect the presence of reverse causality biases in the estimated policy impact on economic factors. The evidence demonstrates that providing protections to undocumented immigrants increases economic activity. The estimates show gains in per capita income ranging from 3.1 to 7.2, median wages between 1.7 to 2.6, and GDP between 2.4 to 4.1 percent. Regarding labor, sanctuary counties saw increases in total employment between 2.3 to 4 percent, and the unemployment rate declined from 12 to 17 percent. The data further shows that ICE policies have no statistically significant effects on income, median wages, or GDP but adverse effects on total employment, with declines from 1 to 2 percent, mostly in rural counties, and an increase in unemployment of around 7 percent in urban counties. In addition, results show a decline in the foreign-born population in ICE counties but no changes in sanctuary counties. The study also finds similar results for sanctuary counties when separating the data between urban, rural, educational attainment, gender, ethnic groups, economic quintiles, and the number of business establishments. The takeaway from this study is that institutional inclusion creates the dynamic nature of an economy, as inclusion allows for economic expansion due to the extension of fundamental freedoms to newcomers. Inclusive policies show positive effects on economic outcomes with no evident increase in population. To make sense of these results, the hypothesis and theoretical model propose that inclusive immigration policies play an essential role in conditioning the effect of immigration by decreasing uncertainties and constraints for immigrants' interaction in their communities, decreasing the cost from fear of deportation or the constant fear of criminalization and optimize their human capital.

Keywords: inclusive and exclusive institutions, post matching, fixed effect, time trend, regression discontinuity, difference-in-difference, randomization inference and sun, Abraham estimator

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Authors: Rupesh S. Gundewar, Kanchan C. Khare

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Runoff contribution from urban areas is generally from manmade structures and few natural contributors. The manmade structures are buildings; roads and other paved areas whereas natural contributors are groundwater and overland flows etc. Runoff alleviation is done by manmade as well as natural storages. Manmade storages are storage tanks or other storage structures such as soakways or soak pits which are more common in western and European countries. Natural storages are catchment slope, infiltration, catchment length, channel rerouting, drainage density, depression storage etc. A literature survey on the manmade and natural storages/inflow has presented percentage contribution of each individually. Sanders et.al. in their research have reported that a vegetation canopy reduces runoff by 7% to 12%. Nassif et el in their research have reported that catchment slope has an impact of 16% on bare standard soil and 24% on grassed soil on rainfall runoff. Infiltration being a pervious/impervious ratio dependent parameter is catchment specific. But a literature survey has presented a range of 15% to 30% loss of rainfall runoff in various catchment study areas. Catchment length and channel rerouting too play a considerable role in reduction of rainfall runoff. Ground infiltration inflow adds to the runoff where the groundwater table is very shallow and soil saturates even in a lower intensity storm. An approximate percent contribution through this inflow and surface inflow contributes to about 2% of total runoff volume. Considering the various contributing factors in runoff it has been observed during a literature survey that integrated modelling approach needs to be considered. The traditional storm water network models are able to predict to a fair/acceptable degree of accuracy provided no interaction with receiving water (river, sea, canal etc), ground infiltration, treatment works etc. are assumed. When such interactions are significant then it becomes difficult to reproduce the actual flood extent using the traditional discrete modelling approach. As a result the correct flooding situation is very rarely addressed accurately. Since the development of spatially distributed hydrologic model the predictions have become more accurate at the cost of requiring more accurate spatial information.The integrated approach provides a greater understanding of performance of the entire catchment. It enables to identify the source of flow in the system, understand how it is conveyed and also its impact on the receiving body. It also confirms important pain points, hydraulic controls and the source of flooding which could not be easily understood with discrete modelling approach. This also enables the decision makers to identify solutions which can be spread throughout the catchment rather than being concentrated at single point where the problem exists. Thus it can be concluded from the literature survey that the representation of urban details can be a key differentiator to the successful understanding of flooding issue. The intent of this study is to accurately predict the runoff from impermeable areas from urban area in India. A representative area has been selected for which data was available and predictions have been made which are corroborated with the actual measured data.

Keywords: runoff, urbanization, impermeable response, flooding

Procedia PDF Downloads 241

Authors: Anastasia Constantinou, Stephen Morris

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Background: The adoption of synchronous and asynchronous telemedicine modalities for primary care consultations has exponentially increased since the COVID-19 pandemic. However, there is limited understanding of how virtual consultations influence healthcare resource utilization and other quality measures including safety, timeliness, efficiency, patient and provider satisfaction, cost-effectiveness and environmental impact. Aim: Quantify the rate of follow-up visits, emergency department visits, hospitalizations, request for investigations and prescriptions and comment on the effect on different quality measures associated with different telemedicine modalities used for primary care services and primary care referrals to secondary care Design and setting: Systematic review in primary care Methods: A systematic search was carried out across three databases (Medline, PubMed and Scopus) between August and November 2023, using terms related to telemedicine, general practice, electronic referrals, follow-up, use and efficiency and supported by citation searching. This was followed by screening according to pre-defined criteria, data extraction and critical appraisal. Narrative synthesis and metanalysis of quantitative data was used to summarize findings. Results: The search identified 2230 studies; 50 studies are included in this review. There was a prevalence of asynchronous modalities in both primary care services (68%) and referrals from primary care to secondary care (83%), and most of the study participants were females (63.3%), with mean age of 48.2. The average follow-up for virtual consultations in primary care was 28.4% (eVisits: 36.8%, secure messages 18.7%, videoconference 23.5%) with no significant difference between them or F2F consultations. There was an average annual reduction of primary care visits by 0.09/patient, an increase in telephone visits by 0.20/patient, an increase in ED encounters by 0.011/patient, an increase in hospitalizations by 0.02/patient and an increase in out of hours visits by 0.019/patient. Laboratory testing was requested on average for 10.9% of telemedicine patients, imaging or procedures for 5.6% and prescriptions for 58.7% of patients. When looking at referrals to secondary care, on average 36.7% of virtual referrals required follow-up visit, with the average rate of follow-up for electronic referrals being higher than for videoconferencing (39.2% vs 23%, p=0.167). Technical failures were reported on average for 1.4% of virtual consultations to primary care. When using carbon footprint estimates, we calculate that the use of telemedicine in primary care services can potentially provide a net decrease in carbon footprint by 0.592kgCO2/patient/year. When follow-up rates are taken into account, we estimate that virtual consultations reduce carbon footprint for primary care services by 2.3 times, and for secondary care referrals by 2.2 times. No major concerns regarding quality of care, or patient satisfaction were identified. 5/7 studies that addressed cost-effectiveness, reported increased savings. Conclusions: Telemedicine provides quality, cost-effective, and environmentally sustainable care for patients in primary care with inconclusive evidence regarding the rates of subsequent healthcare utilization. The evidence is limited by heterogeneous, small-scale studies and lack of prospective comparative studies. Further research to identify the most appropriate telemedicine modality for different patient populations, clinical presentations, service provision (e.g. used to follow-up patients instead of initial diagnosis) as well as further education for patients and providers alike on how to make best use of this service is expected to improve outcomes and influence practice.

Keywords: telemedicine, healthcare utilisation, digital interventions, environmental impact, sustainable healthcare

Procedia PDF Downloads 47

Authors: Rachana Tank, Donald. M. Lyall, Kristin Flegal, Joey Ward, Jonathan Cavanagh

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Alzheimer’s research UK estimates by 2050, 2 million individuals will be living with Late Onset Alzheimer’s disease (LOAD). However, individuals experience considerable cognitive deficits and brain pathology over decades before reaching clinically diagnosable LOAD and studies have utilised gene candidate studies such as genome wide association studies (GWAS) and polygenic risk (PGR) scores to identify high risk individuals and potential pathways. This investigation aims to determine whether high genetic risk of LOAD is associated with worse brain MRI and cognitive performance in healthy older adults within the UK Biobank cohort. Previous studies investigating associations of PGR for LOAD and measures of MRI or cognitive functioning have focused on specific aspects of hippocampal structure, in relatively small sample sizes and with poor ‘controlling’ for confounders such as smoking. Both the sample size of this study and the discovery GWAS sample are bigger than previous studies to our knowledge. Genetic interaction between loci showing largest effects in GWAS have not been extensively studied and it is known that APOE e4 poses the largest genetic risk of LOAD with potential gene-gene and gene-environment interactions of e4, for this reason we  also analyse genetic interactions of PGR with the APOE e4 genotype. High genetic loading based on a polygenic risk score of 21 SNPs for LOAD is associated with worse brain MRI and cognitive outcomes in healthy individuals within the UK Biobank cohort. Summary statistics from Kunkle et al., GWAS meta-analyses (case: n=30,344, control: n=52,427) will be used to create polygenic risk scores based on 21 SNPs and analyses will be carried out in N=37,000 participants in the UK Biobank. This will be the largest study to date investigating PGR of LOAD in relation to MRI. MRI outcome measures include WM tracts, structural volumes. Cognitive function measures include reaction time, pairs matching, trail making, digit symbol substitution and prospective memory. Interaction of the APOE e4 alleles and PGR will be analysed by including APOE status as an interaction term coded as either 0, 1 or 2 e4 alleles. Models will be adjusted partially for adjusted for age, BMI, sex, genotyping chip, smoking, depression and social deprivation. Preliminary results suggest PGR score for LOAD is associated with decreased hippocampal volumes including hippocampal body (standardised beta = -0.04, P = 0.022) and tail (standardised beta = -0.037, P = 0.030), but not with hippocampal head. There were also associations of genetic risk with decreased cognitive performance including fluid intelligence (standardised beta = -0.08, P<0.01) and reaction time (standardised beta = 2.04, P<0.01). No genetic interactions were found between APOE e4 dose and PGR score for MRI or cognitive measures. The generalisability of these results is limited by selection bias within the UK Biobank as participants are less likely to be obese, smoke, be socioeconomically deprived and have fewer self-reported health conditions when compared to the general population. Lack of a unified approach or standardised method for calculating genetic risk scores may also be a limitation of these analyses. Further discussion and results are pending.

Keywords: Alzheimer's dementia, cognition, polygenic risk, MRI

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Authors: André Python

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To this day, terrorism persists as a worldwide threat, exemplified by the recent deadly attacks in January 2015 in Paris and the ongoing massacres perpetrated by ISIS in Iraq and Syria. In response to this threat, states deploy various counterterrorism measures, the cost of which could be reduced through effective preventive measures. In order to increase the efficiency of preventive measures, policy-makers may benefit from accurate predictive models that are able to capture the complex spatial dynamics of terrorism occurring at a local scale. Despite empirical research carried out at country-level that has confirmed theories explaining the diffusion processes of terrorism across space and time, scholars have failed to assess diffusion’s theories on a local scale. Moreover, since scholars have not made the most of recent statistical modelling approaches, they have been unable to build up predictive models accurate in both space and time. In an effort to address these shortcomings, this research suggests a novel approach to systematically assess the theories of terrorism’s diffusion on a local scale and provide a predictive model of the local spatial dynamics of terrorism worldwide. With a focus on the lethal terrorist events that occurred after 9/11, this paper addresses the following question: why and how does lethal terrorism diffuse in space and time? Based on geolocalised data on worldwide terrorist attacks and covariates gathered from 2002 to 2013, a binomial spatio-temporal point process is used to model the probability of terrorist attacks on a sphere (the world), the surface of which is discretised in the form of Delaunay triangles and refined in areas of specific interest. Within a Bayesian framework, the model is fitted through an integrated nested Laplace approximation - a recent fitting approach that computes fast and accurate estimates of posterior marginals. Hence, for each location in the world, the model provides a probability of encountering a lethal terrorist attack and measures of volatility, which inform on the model’s predictability. Diffusion processes are visualised through interactive maps that highlight space-time variations in the probability and volatility of encountering a lethal attack from 2002 to 2013. Based on the previous twelve years of observation, the location and lethality of terrorist events in 2014 are statistically accurately predicted. Throughout the global scope of this research, local diffusion processes such as escalation and relocation are systematically examined: the former process describes an expansion from high concentration areas of lethal terrorist events (hotspots) to neighbouring areas, while the latter is characterised by changes in the location of hotspots. By controlling for the effect of geographical, economical and demographic variables, the results of the model suggest that the diffusion processes of lethal terrorism are jointly driven by contagious and non-contagious factors that operate on a local scale – as predicted by theories of diffusion. Moreover, by providing a quantitative measure of predictability, the model prevents policy-makers from making decisions based on highly uncertain predictions. Ultimately, this research may provide important complementary tools to enhance the efficiency of policies that aim to prevent and combat terrorism.

Keywords: diffusion process, terrorism, spatial dynamics, spatio-temporal modeling

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Authors: Satya Narayan

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India, a rapidly growing economy with a burgeoning population, grapples with the dual challenge of meeting rising energy demands and reducing its carbon footprint. Geothermal energy, an often overlooked and underutilized renewable source, holds immense potential for addressing this challenge. Geothermal resources offer a valuable, consistent, and sustainable energy source, and may significantly contribute to India's energy. This paper discusses the importance of geothermal exploration in India, emphasizing its role in achieving sustainable energy production while mitigating environmental impacts. It also delves into the methodology employed to assess geothermal resource feasibility, including geophysical surveys and borehole drilling. The results and discussion sections highlight promising geothermal sites across India, illuminating the nation's vast geothermal potential. It detects potential geothermal reservoirs, characterizes subsurface structures, maps temperature gradients, monitors fluid flow, and estimates key reservoir parameters. Globally, geothermal energy falls into high and low enthalpy categories, with India mainly having low enthalpy resources, especially in hot springs. The northwestern Himalayan region boasts high-temperature geothermal resources due to geological factors. Promising sites, like Puga Valley, Chhumthang, and others, feature hot springs suitable for various applications. The Son-Narmada-Tapti lineament intersects regions rich in geological history, contributing to geothermal resources. Southern India, including the Godavari Valley, has thermal springs suitable for power generation. The Andaman-Nicobar region, linked to subduction and volcanic activity, holds high-temperature geothermal potential. Geophysical surveys, utilizing gravity, magnetic, seismic, magnetotelluric, and electrical resistivity techniques, offer vital information on subsurface conditions essential for detecting, evaluating, and exploiting geothermal resources. The gravity and magnetic methods map the depth of the mantle boundary (high-temperature) and later accurately determine the Curie depth. Electrical methods indicate the presence of subsurface fluids. Seismic surveys create detailed sub-surface images, revealing faults and fractures and establishing possible connections to aquifers. Borehole drilling is crucial for assessing geothermal parameters at different depths. Detailed geochemical analysis and geophysical surveys in Dholera, Gujarat, reveal untapped geothermal potential in India, aligning with renewable energy goals. In conclusion, geophysical surveys and borehole drilling play a pivotal role in economically viable geothermal site selection and feasibility assessments. With ongoing exploration and innovative technology, these surveys effectively minimize drilling risks, optimize borehole placement, aid in environmental impact evaluations, and facilitate remote resource exploration. Their cost-effectiveness informs decisions regarding geothermal resource location and extent, ultimately promoting sustainable energy and reducing India's reliance on conventional fossil fuels.

Keywords: geothermal resources, geophysical methods, exploration, exploitation

Procedia PDF Downloads 65

Authors: Hosein I. Hosein, Ragab Azzam, Ahmed M. S. Menshawy, Sherin Rouby, Khaled Hendy, Ayman Mahrous, Hany Hussien

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Brucellosis is a highly contagious bacterial zoonotic disease of a worldwide spread and has different names; Infectious or enzootic abortion and Bang's disease in animals; and Mediterranean or Malta fever, Undulant Fever and Rock fever in humans. It is caused by the different species of genus Brucella which is a Gram-negative, aerobic, non-spore forming, facultative intracellular bacterium. Brucella affects a wide range of mammals including bovines, small ruminants, pigs, equines, rodents, marine mammals as well as human resulting in serious economic losses in animal populations. In human, Brucella causes a severe illness representing a great public health problem. The disease was reported in Egypt for the first time in 1939; since then the disease remained endemic at high levels among cattle, buffalo, sheep and goat and is still representing a public health hazard. The annual economic losses due to brucellosis were estimated to be about 60 million Egyptian pounds yearly, but actual estimates are still missing despite almost 30 years of implementation of the Egyptian control programme. Despite being the gold standard, bacterial isolation has been reported to show poor sensitivity for samples with low-level of Brucella and is impractical for regular screening of large populations. Thus, serological tests still remain the corner stone for routine diagnosis of brucellosis, especially in developing countries. In the present study, a total of 1533 cows (256 from Beni-Suef Governorate, 445 from Al-Fayoum Governorate and 832 from Damietta Governorate), were employed for estimation of relative sensitivity, relative specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of buffered acidified plate antigen test (BPAT), rose bengal test (RBT) and complement fixation test (CFT). The overall seroprevalence of brucellosis revealed (19.63%). Relative sensitivity, relative specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of BPAT,RBT and CFT were estimated as, (96.27 %, 96.76 %, 87.65 % and 99.10 %), (93.42 %, 96.27 %, 90.16 % and 98.35%) and (89.30 %, 98.60 %, 94.35 %and 97.24 %) respectively. BPAT showed the highest sensitivity among the three employed serological tests. RBT was less specific than BPAT. CFT showed the least sensitivity 89.30 % among the three employed serological tests but showed the highest specificity. Different tissues specimens of 22 seropositive cows (spleen, retropharyngeal udder, and supra-mammary lymph nodes) were subjected for bacteriological studies for isolation and identification of Brucella organisms. Brucella melitensis biovar 3 could be recovered from 12 (54.55%) cows. Bacteriological examinations failed to classify 10 cases (45.45%) and were culture negative. Bruce-ladder PCR was carried out for molecular identification of the 12 Brucella isolates at the species level. Three fragments of 587 bp, 1071 bp and 1682 bp sizes were amplified indicating Brucella melitensis. The results indicated the importance of using several procedures to overcome the problem of escaping of some infected animals from diagnosis.Bruce-ladder PCR is an important tool for diagnosis and epidemiologic studies, providing relevant information for identification of Brucella spp.

Keywords: brucellosis, relative sensitivity, relative specificity, Bruce-ladder, Egypt

Procedia PDF Downloads 335

Authors: Salvatore Luongo, Carlo Luongo

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This paper discusses the implementation solutions to reduce the computational load for the Traffic Situational Awareness with Alerts (TSAA) application, based on Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) technology. In 2008, there were 23 total mid-air collisions involving general aviation fixed-wing aircraft, 6 of which were fatal leading to 21 fatalities. These collisions occurred during visual meteorological conditions, indicating the limitations of the see-and-avoid concept for mid-air collision avoidance as defined in the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA). The commercial aviation aircraft are already equipped with collision avoidance system called TCAS, which is based on classic transponder technology. This system dramatically reduced the number of mid-air collisions involving air transport aircraft. In general aviation, the same reduction in mid-air collisions has not occurred, so this reduction is the main objective of the TSAA application. The major difference between the original conflict detection application and the TSAA application is that the conflict detection is focused on preventing loss of separation in en-route environments. Instead TSAA is devoted to reducing the probability of mid-air collision in all phases of flight. The TSAA application increases the flight crew traffic situation awareness providing alerts of traffic that are detected in conflict with ownship in support of the see-and-avoid responsibility. The relevant effort has been spent in the design process and the code generation in order to maximize the efficiency and performances in terms of computational load and memory consumption reduction. The TSAA architecture is divided into two high-level systems: the “Threats database” and the “Conflict detector”. The first one receives the traffic data from ADS-B device and provides the memorization of the target’s data history. Conflict detector module estimates ownship and targets trajectories in order to perform the detection of possible future loss of separation between ownship and each target. Finally, the alerts are verified by additional conflict verification logic, in order to prevent possible undesirable behaviors of the alert flag. In order to reduce the computational load, a pre-check evaluation module is used. This pre-check is only a computational optimization, so the performances of the conflict detector system are not modified in terms of number of alerts detected. The pre-check module uses analytical trajectories propagation for both target and ownship. This allows major accuracy and avoids the step-by-step propagation, which requests major computational load. Furthermore, the pre-check permits to exclude the target that is certainly not a threat, using an analytical and efficient geometrical approach, in order to decrease the computational load for the following modules. This software improvement is not suggested by FAA documents, and so it is the main innovation of this work. The efficiency and efficacy of this enhancement are verified using fast-time and real-time simulations and by the execution on a real device in several FAA scenarios. The final implementation also permits the FAA software certification in compliance with DO-178B standard. The computational load reduction allows the installation of TSAA application also on devices with multiple applications and/or low capacity in terms of available memory and computational capabilities

Keywords: traffic situation awareness, general aviation, aircraft conflict detection, computational load reduction, implementation solutions, software certification

Procedia PDF Downloads 267

Authors: Andrew D. Henshaw, James M. Austin

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Introduction: Human trafficking is an increasingly serious transnational criminal enterprise and social security issue. Despite ongoing efforts to mitigate the phenomenon and a significant expansion of security scrutiny over past decades, it is not receding. This is true for many nations in Southeast Asia, widely recognized as the global hub for trafficked persons, including men, women, and children. Clearly, human trafficking is difficult to address because there are numerous drivers, causes, and motivators for it to persist, such as non-military and non-traditional security challenges, i.e., climate change, global warming displacement, and natural disasters. These make displaced persons and refugees particularly vulnerable. The issue is so large conservative estimates put a dollar value at around $150 billion-plus per year (Niethammer, 2020) spanning sexual slavery and exploitation, forced labor, construction, mining and in conflict roles, and forced marriages of girls and women. Coupled with corruption throughout military, police, and civil authorities around the world, and the active hands of powerful transnational criminal organizations, it is likely that such figures are grossly underestimated as human trafficking is misreported, under-detected, and deliberately obfuscated to protect those profiting from it. For example, the 2022 UN report on human trafficking shows a 56% reduction in convictions in that year alone (UNODC, 2022). Our Approach: To better understand this, our research utilizes a bespoke methodology. Applying a JAM (Juxtaposition Assessment Matrix), which we previously developed to detect flows of dark money around the globe (Henshaw, A & Austin, J, 2021), we now focus on the human trafficking paradigm. Indeed, utilizing a JAM methodology has identified key indicators of human trafficking not previously explored in depth. Being a set of structured analytical techniques that provide panoramic interpretations of the subject matter, this iteration of the JAM further incorporates behavioral and driver indicators, including the employment of Open-Source Artificial Intelligence (OS-AI) across multiple collection points. The extracted behavioral data was then applied to identify non-traditional indicators as they contribute to human trafficking. Furthermore, as the JAM OS-AI analyses data from the inverted position, i.e., the viewpoint of the traffickers, it examines the behavioral and physical traits required to succeed. This transposed examination of the requirements of success delivers potential leverage points for exploitation in the fight against human trafficking in a new and novel way. Findings: Our approach identified new innovative datasets that have previously been overlooked or, at best, undervalued. For example, the JAM OS-AI approach identified critical 'dark agent' lynchpins within human trafficking that are difficult to detect and harder to connect to actors and agents within a network. Our preliminary data suggests this is in part due to the fact that ‘dark agents’ in extant research have been difficult to detect and potentially much harder to directly connect to the actors and organizations in human trafficking networks. Our research demonstrates that using new investigative techniques such as OS-AI-aided JAM introduces a powerful toolset to increase understanding of human trafficking and transnational crime and illuminate networks that, to date, avoid global law enforcement scrutiny.

Keywords: human trafficking, open-source intelligence, transnational crime, human security, international human rights, intelligence analysis, JAM OS-AI, Dark Money

Procedia PDF Downloads 77

Authors: Helena Pera, Arcadi Sanmartin, Albert Falques, Rafael Rebolo, Xavier Ametller, Heiko Zillgen, Cecile Prum, Boris Even, Eric Kapornyai

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Sheet piles system can be an interesting solution when dealing with harbors or quays designs. However, current design methods lead to conservative approaches due to the lack of specific basis of design. For instance, some design features still deal with pseudo-static approaches, although being a dynamic problem. Under this concern, the study particularly focuses on hydrodynamic water pressure definition and stability analysis of sheet pile system under seismic loads. During a seismic event, seawater produces hydrodynamic pressures on structures. Currently, design methods introduce hydrodynamic forces by means of Westergaard formulation and Eurocodes recommendations. They apply constant hydrodynamic pressure on the front sheet pile during the entire earthquake. As a result, the hydrodynamic load may represent 20% of the total forces produced on the sheet pile. Nonetheless, some studies question that approach. Hence, this study assesses the soil-structure-fluid interaction of sheet piles under seismic action in order to evaluate if current design strategies overestimate hydrodynamic pressures. For that purpose, this study performs various simulations by Plaxis 2D, a well-known geotechnical software, and CFD models, which treat fluid dynamic behaviours. Knowing that neither Plaxis nor CFD can resolve a soil-fluid coupled problem, the investigation imposes sheet pile displacements from Plaxis as input data for the CFD model. Then, it provides hydrodynamic pressures under seismic action, which fit theoretical Westergaard pressures if calculated using the acceleration at each moment of the earthquake. Thus, hydrodynamic pressures fluctuate during seismic action instead of remaining constant, as design recommendations propose. Additionally, these findings detect that hydrodynamic pressure contributes a 5% to the total load applied on sheet pile due to its instantaneous nature. These results are in line with other studies that use added masses methods for hydrodynamic pressures. Another important feature in sheet pile design is the assessment of the geotechnical overall stability. It uses pseudo-static analysis since the dynamic analysis cannot provide a safety calculation. Consequently, it estimates the seismic action. One of its relevant factors is the selection of the seismic reduction factor. A huge amount of studies discusses the importance of it but also about all its uncertainties. Moreover, current European standards do not propose a clear statement on that, and they recommend using a reduction factor equal to 1. This leads to conservative requirements when compared with more advanced methods. Under this situation, the study calibrates seismic reduction factor by fitting results from pseudo-static to dynamic analysis. The investigation concludes that pseudo-static analyses could reduce seismic action by 40-50%. These results are in line with some studies from Japanese and European working groups. In addition, it seems suitable to account for the flexibility of the sheet pile-soil system. Nevertheless, the calibrated reduction factor is subjected to particular conditions of each design case. Further research would contribute to specifying recommendations for selecting reduction factor values in the early stages of the design. In conclusion, sheet pile design still has chances for improving its design methodologies and approaches. Consequently, design could propose better seismic solutions thanks to advanced methods such as findings of this study.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, hydrodynamic pressures, pseudo-static analysis, quays, seismic design, steel sheet pile

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Authors: Simon J. Wilde, David M. Herold, Michael J. Bryant

Abstract:

Social media networks have become the hotbed for advertising activities due mainly to their increasing consumer/user base and, secondly, owing to the ability of marketers to accurately measure ad exposure and consumer-based insights on such networks. More than half of the world’s population (4.8 billion) now uses social media (60%), with 150 million new users having come online within the last 12 months (to June 2022). As the use of social media networks by users grows, key business strategies used for interacting with these potential customers have matured, especially social media advertising. Unlike other traditional media outlets, social media advertising is highly interactive and digital channel specific. Social media advertisements are clearly targetable, providing marketers with an extremely powerful marketing tool. Yet despite the measurable benefits afforded to businesses engaged in social media advertising, recent controversies (such as the relationship between Facebook and Cambridge Analytica in 2018) have only heightened the role trust and privacy play within these social media networks. Using a web-based quantitative survey instrument, survey participants were recruited via a reputable online panel survey site. Respondents to the survey represented social media users from all states and territories within Australia. Completed responses were received from a total of 258 social media users. Survey respondents represented all core age demographic groupings, including Gen Z/Millennials (18-45 years = 60.5% of respondents) and Gen X/Boomers (46-66+ years = 39.5% of respondents). An adapted ADTRUST scale, using a 20 item 7-point Likert scale, measured trust in social media advertising. The ADTRUST scale has been shown to be a valid measure of trust in advertising within traditional media, such as broadcast media and print media, and, more recently, the Internet (as a broader platform). The adapted scale was validated through exploratory factor analysis (EFA), resulting in a three-factor solution. These three factors were named reliability, usefulness and affect, and the willingness to rely on. Factor scores (weighted measures) were then calculated for these factors. Factor scores are estimates of the scores survey participants would have received on each of the factors had they been measured directly, with the following results recorded (Reliability = 4.68/7; Usefulness and Affect = 4.53/7; and Willingness to Rely On = 3.94/7). Further statistical analysis (independent samples t-test) determined the difference in factor scores between the factors when age (Gen Z/Millennials vs. Gen X/Boomers) was utilized as the independent, categorical variable. The results showed the difference in mean scores across all three factors to be statistically significant (p<0.05) for these two core age groupings: (1) Gen Z/Millennials Reliability = 4.90/7 vs. Gen X/Boomers Reliability = 4.34/7; (2) Gen Z/Millennials Usefulness and Affect = 4.85/7 vs Gen X/Boomers Usefulness and Affect = 4.05/7; and (3) Gen Z/Millennials Willingness to Rely On = 4.53/7 vs Gen X/Boomers Willingness to Rely On = 3.03/7. The results clearly indicate that older social media users lack trust in the quality of information conveyed in social media ads when compared to younger, more social media-savvy consumers. This is especially evident with respect to Factor 3 (Willingness to Rely On), whose underlying variables reflect one’s behavioral intent to act based on the information conveyed in advertising. These findings can be useful to marketers, advertisers, and brand managers in that the results highlight a critical need to design ‘authentic’ advertisements on social media sites to better connect with these older users in an attempt to foster positive behavioral responses from within this large demographic group – whose engagement with social media sites continues to increase year on year.

Keywords: social media advertising, trust, older consumers, internet studies

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Authors: Patricia Shirley Almeida Prado, Liz Brito, Selma Paixão Argollo, Gracie Moreira, Leticia Matos Sobrinho

Abstract:

Diffuse idiopathic skeletal hyperostosis (DISH) is a degenerative bone disease also known as Forestier´s disease and ankylosing hyperostosis of the spine is characterized by a tendency toward ossification of half the anterior longitudinal spinal ligament without intervertebral disc disease. DISH is not considered to be osteoarthritis, although the two conditions commonly occur together. Diagnostic criteria include fusion of at least four vertebrae by bony bridges arising from the anterolateral aspect of the vertebral bodies. These vertebral bodies have a 'dripping candle wax' appearance, also can be seen periosteal new bone formation on the anterior surface of the vertebral bodies and there is no ankylosis at zygoapophyseal facet joint. Clinically, patients with DISH tend to be asymptomatic some patients mention moderate pain and stiffness in upper back. This disease is more common in man, uncommon in patients younger than 50 years and rare in patients under 40 years old. In modern populations, DISH is found in association with obesity, (type II) diabetes; abnormal vitamin A metabolism and also associated with higher levels of serum uric acid. There is also some association between the increase of risk of stroke or other cerebrovascular disease. The DISH condition can be confused with Heterotopic Ossification, what is the bone formation in the soft tissues as the result of trauma, wounding, surgery, burnings, prolonged immobility and some central nervous system disorder. All these conditions have been described extensively as myositis ossificans which can be confused with the fibrodysplasia (myositis) ossificans progressive. As in the DISH symptomatology it can be asymptomatic or extensive enough to impair joint function. A third confusion osteoarthritis disease that can bring confusion are the enthesopathies that occur in the entire skeleton being common on the ischial tuberosities, iliac crests, patellae, and calcaneus. Ankylosis of the sacroiliac joint by bony bridges may also be found. CASE 1: this case is skeletal remains presenting skull, some vertebrae and scapulae. This case remains unidentified and due to lack of bone remains. Sex, age and ancestry profile was compromised, however the DISH pathognomonic findings and diagnostic helps to estimate sex and age characteristics. Moreover to presenting DISH these skeletal remains also showed some bone alterations and non-metrics as fusion of the first vertebrae with occipital bone, maxillae and palatine torus and scapular foramen on the right scapulae. CASE 2: this skeleton remains shows an extensive bone heterotopic ossification on the great trochanter area of left femur, right fibula showed a healed fracture in its body however in its inteosseous crest there is an extensive bone growth, also in the Ilium at the region of inferior gluteal line can be observed some pronounced bone growth and the skull presented a pronounced mandibular, maxillary and palatine torus. Despite all these pronounced heterotopic ossification the whole skeleton presents moderate bone overgrowth that is not linked with aging, since the skeleton belongs to a young unidentified individual. The appropriate osteopathological diagnosis support the human identification process through medical reports and also assist with epidemiological data that can strengthen vulnerable anthropological estimates.

Keywords: bone disease, DISH, human identification, human remains

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Authors: Parag Katira, Frederika Rentzeperis, Zuzanna Nowicka, Giada Fiandaca, Thomas Veith, Jack Farinhas, Noemi Andor

Abstract:

Resource limitations shape the outcome of competitions between genetically heterogeneous pre-malignant cells. One example of such heterogeneity is in the ploidy (DNA content) of pre-malignant cells. A whole-genome duplication (WGD) transforms a diploid cell into a tetraploid one and has been detected in 28-56% of human cancers. If a tetraploid subclone expands, it consistently does so early in tumor evolution, when cell density is still low, and competition for nutrients is comparatively weak – an observation confirmed for several tumor types. WGD+ cells need more resources to synthesize increasing amounts of DNA, RNA, and proteins. To quantify resource limitations and how they relate to ploidy, we performed a PAN cancer analysis of WGD, PET/CT, and MRI scans. Segmentation of >20 different organs from >900 PET/CT scans were performed with MOOSE. We observed a strong correlation between organ-wide population-average estimates of Oxygen and the average ploidy of cancers growing in the respective organ (Pearson R = 0.66; P= 0.001). In-vitro experiments using near-diploid and near-tetraploid lineages derived from a breast cancer cell line supported the hypothesis that DNA content influences Glucose- and Oxygen-dependent proliferation-, death- and migration rates. To model how subpopulations with variable DNA content compete in the resource-limited environment of the human brain, we developed a stochastic state-space model of the brain (S3MB). The model discretizes the brain into voxels, whereby the state of each voxel is defined by 8+ variables that are updated over time: stiffness, Oxygen, phosphate, glucose, vasculature, dead cells, migrating cells and proliferating cells of various DNA content, and treat conditions such as radiotherapy and chemotherapy. Well-established Fokker-Planck partial differential equations govern the distribution of resources and cells across voxels. We applied S3MB on sequencing and imaging data obtained from a primary GBM patient. We performed whole genome sequencing (WGS) of four surgical specimens collected during the 1ˢᵗ and 2ⁿᵈ surgeries of the GBM and used HATCHET to quantify its clonal composition and how it changes between the two surgeries. HATCHET identified two aneuploid subpopulations of ploidy 1.98 and 2.29, respectively. The low-ploidy clone was dominant at the time of the first surgery and became even more dominant upon recurrence. MRI images were available before and after each surgery and registered to MNI space. The S3MB domain was initiated from 4mm³ voxels of the MNI space. T1 post and T2 flair scan acquired after the 1ˢᵗ surgery informed tumor cell densities per voxel. Magnetic Resonance Elastography scans and PET/CT scans informed stiffness and Glucose access per voxel. We performed a parameter search to recapitulate the GBM’s tumor cell density and ploidy composition before the 2ⁿᵈ surgery. Results suggest that the high-ploidy subpopulation had a higher Glucose-dependent proliferation rate (0.70 vs. 0.49), but a lower Glucose-dependent death rate (0.47 vs. 1.42). These differences resulted in spatial differences in the distribution of the two subpopulations. Our results contribute to a better understanding of how genomics and microenvironments interact to shape cell fate decisions and could help pave the way to therapeutic strategies that mimic prognostically favorable environments.

Keywords: tumor evolution, intra-tumor heterogeneity, whole-genome doubling, mathematical modeling

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Authors: Jun Wang, Chenglei Diao, Emanuele Pagone, Jialuo Ding, Stewart Williams

Abstract:

As a crucial component in aircraft, landing gear systems are responsible for supporting the plane during parking, taxiing, takeoff, and landing. Given the need for high load-bearing capacity over extended periods, 300M ultra-high strength steel (UHSS) is often the material of choice for crafting these systems due to its exceptional strength, toughness, and fatigue resistance. In the quest for cost-effective and sustainable manufacturing solutions, Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing (WAAM) emerges as a promising alternative for fabricating 300M UHSS landing gears. This is due to its advantages in near-net-shape forming of large components, cost-efficiency, and reduced lead times. Cranfield University has conducted an extensive preliminary study on WAAM 300M UHSS, covering feature deposition, interface analysis, and post-heat treatment. Both Gas Metal Arc (GMA) and Plasma Transferred Arc (PTA)-based WAAM methods were explored, revealing their feasibility for defect-free manufacturing. However, as-deposited 300M features showed lower strength but higher ductility compared to their forged counterparts. Subsequent post-heat treatments were effective in normalising the microstructure and mechanical properties, meeting qualification standards. A 300M UHSS landing gear demonstrator was successfully created using PTA-based WAAM, showcasing the method's precision and cost-effectiveness. The demonstrator, measuring Ф200mm x 700mm, was completed in 16 hours, using 7 kg of material at a deposition rate of 1.3kg/hr. This resulted in a significant reduction in the Buy-to-Fly (BTF) ratio compared to traditional manufacturing methods, further validating WAAM's potential for this application. A "cradle-to-gate" environmental impact assessment, which considers the cumulative effects from raw material extraction to customer shipment, has revealed promising outcomes. Utilising Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing (WAAM) for landing gear components significantly reduces the need for raw material extraction and refinement compared to traditional subtractive methods. This, in turn, lessens the burden on subsequent manufacturing processes, including heat treatment, machining, and transportation. Our estimates indicate that the carbon footprint of the component could be halved when switching from traditional machining to WAAM. Similar reductions are observed in embodied energy consumption and other environmental impact indicators, such as emissions to air, water, and land. Additionally, WAAM offers the unique advantage of part repair by redepositing only the necessary material, a capability not available through conventional methods. Our research shows that WAAM-based repairs can drastically reduce environmental impact, even when accounting for additional transportation for repairs. Consequently, WAAM emerges as a pivotal technology for reducing environmental impact in manufacturing, aiding the industry in its crucial and ambitious journey towards Net Zero. This study paves the way for transformative benefits across the aerospace industry, as we integrate manufacturing into a hybrid solution that offers substantial savings and access to more sustainable technologies for critical component production.

Keywords: WAAM, aircraft landing gear, microstructure, mechanical performance, life cycle assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 149

Authors: Simon J. Wilde, David M. Herold, Michael J. Bryant

Abstract:

Social media networks have become the hotbed for advertising activities, due mainly to their increasing consumer/user base, and secondly, owing to the ability of marketers to accurately measure ad exposure and consumer-based insights on such networks. More than half of the world’s population (4.8 billion) now uses social media (60%), with 150 million new users having come online within the last 12 months (to June 2022). As the use of social media networks by users grows, key business strategies used for interacting with these potential customers have matured, especially social media advertising. Unlike other traditional media outlets, social media advertising is highly interactive and digital channel-specific. Social media advertisements are clearly targetable, providing marketers with an extremely powerful marketing tool. Yet despite the measurable benefits afforded to businesses engaged in social media advertising, recent controversies (such as the relationship between Facebook and Cambridge Analytica in 2018) have only heightened the role trust and privacy play within these social media networks. The purpose of this exploratory paper is to investigate the extent to which social media users trust social media advertising. Understanding this relationship will fundamentally assist marketers in better understanding social media interactions and their implications for society. Using a web-based quantitative survey instrument, survey participants were recruited via a reputable online panel survey site. Respondents to the survey represented social media users from all states and territories within Australia. Completed responses were received from a total of 258 social media users. Survey respondents represented all core age demographic groupings, including Gen Z/Millennials (18-45 years = 60.5% of respondents) and Gen X/Boomers (46-66+ years = 39.5% of respondents). An adapted ADTRUST scale, using a 20 item 7-point Likert scale, measured trust in social media advertising. The ADTRUST scale has been shown to be a valid measure of trust in advertising within traditional different media, such as broadcast media and print media, and more recently, the Internet (as a broader platform). The adapted scale was validated through exploratory factor analysis (EFA), resulting in a three-factor solution. These three factors were named reliability, usefulness and affect, and the willingness to rely on. Factor scores (weighted measures) were then calculated for these factors. Factor scores are estimates of the scores survey participants would have received on each of the factors had they been measured directly, with the following results recorded (Reliability = 4.68/7; Usefulness and Affect = 4.53/7; and Willingness to Rely On = 3.94/7). Further statistical analysis (independent samples t-test) determined the difference in factor scores between the factors when age (Gen Z/Millennials vs. Gen X/Boomers) was utilised as the independent, categorical variable. The results showed the difference in mean scores across all three factors to be statistically significant (p<0.05) for these two core age groupings: Gen Z/Millennials Reliability = 4.90/7 vs Gen X/Boomers Reliability = 4.34/7; Gen Z/Millennials Usefulness and Affect = 4.85/7 vs Gen X/Boomers Usefulness and Affect = 4.05/7; and Gen Z/Millennials Willingness to Rely On = 4.53/7 vs Gen X/Boomers Willingness to Rely On = 3.03/7. The results clearly indicate that older social media users lack trust in the quality of information conveyed in social media ads, when compared to younger, more social media-savvy consumers. This is especially evident with respect to Factor 3 (Willingness to Rely On), whose underlying variables reflect one’s behavioural intent to act based on the information conveyed in advertising. These findings can be useful to marketers, advertisers, and brand managers in that the results highlight a critical need to design ‘authentic’ advertisements on social media sites to better connect with these older users, in an attempt to foster positive behavioural responses from within this large demographic group – whose engagement with social media sites continues to increase year on year.

Keywords: social media advertising, trust, older consumers, online

Procedia PDF Downloads 71

Authors: Denis Jordan, Daniel Golkowski, Mathias Lukas, Katharina Merz, Caroline Mlynarcik, Max Maurer, Valentin Riedl, Stefan Foerster, Eberhard F. Kochs, Andreas Bender, Ruediger Ilg

Abstract:

Introduction: So far, clinical assessments that rely on behavioral responses to differentiate coma states or even predict outcome in coma patients are unreliable, e.g. because of some patients’ motor disabilities. The present study was aimed to provide prognosis in coma patients using markers from electroencephalogram (EEG), blood oxygen level dependent (BOLD) functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and [18F]-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET). Unsuperwised principal component analysis (PCA) was used for multimodal integration of markers. Methods: Approved by the local ethics committee of the Technical University of Munich (Germany) 20 patients (aged 18-89) with severe brain damage were acquired through intensive care units at the Klinikum rechts der Isar in Munich and at the Therapiezentrum Burgau (Germany). At the day of EEG/fMRI/PET measurement (date I) patients (<3.5 month in coma) were grouped in the minimal conscious state (MCS) or vegetative state (VS) on the basis of their clinical presentation (coma recovery scale-revised, CRS-R). Follow-up assessment (date II) was also based on CRS-R in a period of 8 to 24 month after date I. At date I, 63 channel EEG (Brain Products, Gilching, Germany) was recorded outside the scanner, and subsequently simultaneous FDG-PET/fMRI was acquired on an integrated Siemens Biograph mMR 3T scanner (Siemens Healthineers, Erlangen Germany). Power spectral densities, permutation entropy (PE) and symbolic transfer entropy (STE) were calculated in/between frontal, temporal, parietal and occipital EEG channels. PE and STE are based on symbolic time series analysis and were already introduced as robust markers separating wakefulness from unconsciousness in EEG during general anesthesia. While PE quantifies the regularity structure of the neighboring order of signal values (a surrogate of cortical information processing), STE reflects information transfer between two signals (a surrogate of directed connectivity in cortical networks). fMRI was carried out using SPM12 (Wellcome Trust Center for Neuroimaging, University of London, UK). Functional images were realigned, segmented, normalized and smoothed. PET was acquired for 45 minutes in list-mode. For absolute quantification of brain’s glucose consumption rate in FDG-PET, kinetic modelling was performed with Patlak’s plot method. BOLD signal intensity in fMRI and glucose uptake in PET was calculated in 8 distinct cortical areas. PCA was performed over all markers from EEG/fMRI/PET. Prognosis (persistent VS and deceased patients vs. recovery to MCS/awake from date I to date II) was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) including bootstrap confidence intervals (CI, *: p<0.05). Results: Prognosis was reliably indicated by the first component of PCA (AUC=0.99*, CI=0.92-1.00) showing a higher AUC when compared to the best single markers (EEG: AUC<0.96*, fMRI: AUC<0.86*, PET: AUC<0.60). CRS-R did not show prediction (AUC=0.51, CI=0.29-0.78). Conclusion: In a multimodal analysis of EEG/fMRI/PET in coma patients, PCA lead to a reliable prognosis. The impact of this result is evident, as clinical estimates of prognosis are inapt at time and could be supported by quantitative biomarkers from EEG, fMRI and PET. Due to the small sample size, further investigations are required, in particular allowing superwised learning instead of the basic approach of unsuperwised PCA.

Keywords: coma states and prognosis, electroencephalogram, entropy, functional magnetic resonance imaging, machine learning, positron emission tomography, principal component analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 328