Search results for: health risk assessment

Authors: Hushyar Azari

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Aim and background: Deep brain stimulation (DBS) is regarded as an important therapeutic choice for Parkinson's disease (PD). The two most common targets for DBS are the subthalamic nucleus (STN) and globus pallidus (GPi). This review was conducted to compare the clinical effectiveness of these two targets. Methods: A systematic literature search in electronic databases: Embase, Cochrane Library and PubMed were restricted to English language publications 2010 to 2021. Specified MeSH terms were searched in all databases. Studies which evaluated the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) III were selected by meeting the following criteria: (1) compared both GPi and STN DBS; (2) had at least three months follow-up period; (3)at least five participants in each group; (4)conducted after 2010. Study quality assessment was performed using the Modified Jadad Scale. Results: 3577 potentially relevant articles were identified, of these, 3569 were excluded based on title and abstract, duplicate and unsuitable article removal. Eight articles satisfied the inclusion criteria and were scrutinized (458 PD patients). According to Modified Jadad Scale, the majority of included studies had low evidence quality which was a limitation of this review. 5 studies reported no statistically significant between-group difference for improvements in UPDRS ш scores. At the same time, there were some results in terms of pain, action tremor, rigidity, and urinary symptoms, which indicated that STN DBS might be a better choice. Regarding the adverse effects, GPi was superior. Conclusion: It is clear that other larger randomized clinical trials with longer follow-up periods and control groups are needed to decide which target is more efficient for deep brain stimulation in Parkinson’s disease and imposes fewer adverse effects on the patients. Meanwhile, STN seems more reasonable according to the results of this systematic review.

Keywords: brain stimulation, globus pallidus, Parkinson's disease, subthalamic nucleus

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Authors: Omogoriola Hannah Omoloye

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Fish is a key ingredient on the global menu, a vital factor in the global environment and an important basis for livelihood worldwide1. The length – weight relationships (LWRs) is of great importance in fishery assessment2,3. Its importance is pronounced in estimated the average weight at a given length group4 and in assessing the relative well being of a fish population5. Length and weight measurement in conjunction with age data can give information on the stock composition, age at maturity, life span, mortality, growth and production4,5,6,7. In addition, the data on length and weight can also provides important clues to climatic and environmental changes and the change in human consumption practices8,9. However, the size attained by the individual fish may also vary because of variation in food supply, and these in turn may reflect variation in climatic parameters and in the supply of nutrient or in the degree of competition for food. Environment deterioration, for example, may reduce growth rates and will cause a decrease in the average age of the fish. The condition factor and the relative condition factor10 are the quantitative parameters of the well being state of the fish and reflect recent feeding condition of the fish. It is based on the hypothesis that heavier fish of a given length are in better condition11. This factor varies according to influences of physiological factors, fluctuating according to different stages of the development. Condition factor has been used as an index of growth and feeding intensity12. Condition factor decrease with increase in length 12,13 and also influences the reproductive cycle in fish14. The objective here is to determine the length-weight relationships and condition factor for direct use in fishery assessment and for future comparisons between populations of the same species at different locations. To provide quantitative information on the biology of marine fish species trawl from Nigeria coastal water.

Keywords: condition factor, growth pattern, marine fish species, Nigerian Coastal water

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Authors: Xiaodi Su, Xin Ting Zheng, Laura Sutarlie, Nur Asinah binte Mohamed Salleh, Yong Yu

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Wound healing is a dynamic process with multiple phases. Rapid profiling and quantitative characterization of inflammation and infection remain challenging. We have developed paper-like battery-free multiplexed sensors for holistic wound assessment via quantitative detection of multiple inflammation and infection markers. In one of the designs, the sensor patch consists of a wax-printed paper panel with five colorimetric sensor channels arranged in a pattern resembling a five-petaled flower (denoted as a ‘Petal’ sensor). The five sensors are for temperature, pH, trimethylamine, uric acid, and moisture. The sensor patch is sandwiched between a top transparent silicone layer and a bottom adhesive wound contact layer. In the second design, a palm-like-shaped paper strip is fabricated by a paper-cutter printer (denoted as ‘Palm’ sensor). This sensor strip carries five sensor regions connected by a stem sampling entrance that enables rapid colorimetric detection of multiple bacteria metabolites (aldehyde, lactate, moisture, trimethylamine, tryptophan) from wound exudate. For both the “\’ Petal’ and ‘Palm’ sensors, color images can be captured by a mobile phone. According to the color changes, one can quantify the concentration of the biomarkers and then determine wound healing status and identify/quantify bacterial species in infected wounds. The ‘Petal’ and ‘Palm’ sensors are validated with in-situ animal and ex-situ skin wound models, respectively. These sensors have the potential for integration with wound dressing to allow early warning of adverse events without frequent removal of the plasters. Such in-situ and early detection of non-healing condition can trigger immediate clinical intervention to facilitate wound care management.

Keywords: wound infection, colorimetric sensor, paper fluidic sensor, wound care

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Authors: Gianvito Colucci, Valeria Di Cosmo, Matteo Nicoli, Orsola Maria Robasto, Laura Savoldi

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The hydrogen value chain deployment is likely to be boosted in the near term by the energy security measures planned by European countries to face the recent energy crisis. In this context, some countries are recognized to have a crucial role in the geopolitics of hydrogen as importers, consumers and exporters. According to the European Hydrogen Backbone Initiative, Italy would be part of one of the 5 corridors that will shape the European hydrogen market. However, the set targets are very ambitious and require large investments to rapidly develop effective hydrogen policies: in this regard, scenario analysis is becoming increasingly important to support energy planning, and energy system optimization models appear to be suitable tools to quantitively carry on that kind of analysis. The work aims to assess the competitiveness of hydrogen in contributing to the Italian energy security in the coming years, under different price and import conditions, using the energy system model TEMOA-Italy. A wide spectrum of hydrogen technologies is included in the analysis, covering the production, storage, delivery, and end-uses stages. National production from fossil fuels with and without CCS, as well as electrolysis and import of low-carbon hydrogen from North Africa, are the supply solutions that would compete with other ones, such as natural gas, biomethane and electricity value chains, to satisfy sectoral energy needs (transport, industry, buildings, agriculture). Scenario analysis is then used to study the competition under different price and import conditions. The use of TEMOA-Italy allows the work to catch the interaction between the economy and technological detail, which is much needed in the energy policies assessment, while the transparency of the analysis and of the results is ensured by the full accessibility of the TEMOA open-source modeling framework.

Keywords: energy security, energy system optimization models, hydrogen, natural gas, open-source modeling, scenario analysis, TEMOA

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Authors: Chang Li Yu

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Resistances commonly happened during sexual offenders treatment program (SOTP), and removing resistances was one of the treatment goals on it. Studies concerning treatment effectiveness relied on pre- and post-treatment evaluations, however, no significant difference on resistance revealed after treatment, and the above consequences generally contributed to the low motivation for change instead. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the resistance across each stage of change among sexual offenders (SO). The present study recruited prisoned SO in Taiwan, excluding those with literacy difficulties; finally, 272 participants were included. Of all participants completed revised version of URICA (University of Rhode Island Change Assessment) and resistance scale specifically for SO. The former included four stages of change: pre-contemplation (PC), contemplation (C), action (A), and maintain (M); the later composed eight types of resistance: system blaming, victims blaming, problems with treatment alliance, social justification, hopelessness, isolation, psychological reactance, and passive reactance. Both of the instruments were with well reliability and validity. Descriptive statistics and ANOVA were performed. All of 272 participants, age under 25 were 18(6.6%), 25-39 were 133(48.9%), 40-54 were 102(37.5%), and age over 55 were 19(7.0%); college level and above were 53(19.5%), high school level were 110(40.4%), and under high school level were 109(40.1%); first offended were 117(43.0%), and recidivist were 23(8.5%). Further deleting data with missing values and invalid questionnaires, SO with stage of change on PC were 43(18.9%), C were 109(47.8%), A were 70(30.7%), and on M were 6(2.6%). One-way ANOVA showed significant differences on every kind of resistances, excepting isolation and passive reactance. Post-hoc analysis showed that SO with different stages had their main resistance. There are two contributions to the present study. First, this study provided a clinical and theoretical measurement of evaluation that was never used in the past. Second, this study used an evidence-based methodology to prove a clinical perspective differed from the past, suggesting that resistances to treatment on SO appear the whole therapeutic process, when SO progress into the next stage of change, clinicians have to deal with their main resistance for working through the therapy.

Keywords: resistance, sexual offenders treatment program (SOTP), motivation for change, prisoned sexual offender

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Authors: Nada Abdelsadig Moahamed Saied

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Female Genital Mutilation (FGM) and other similar traditional cultural practices pose a significant problem for Sudanese society. Such actions are severe and seriously detrimental to people's health since they are based on false social perceptions. To address these problems, numerous institutions and organizations were compelled to act rapidly. Female circumcision, or FGM, is one of the riskiest practices. It is referred to as the excision of the genitalia. Any surgeries involving the total or partial removal of the external female genitalia for non-medical reasons fall under this category. The results of FGM can vary depending on the kind and degree of the operation. These can be categorized as short-term, mid-term, or long-term issues. Infections, including the Human, blood, discomfort, and difficulty urinating are the immediate effects. FGM is defined by the World Health Organization (WHO) as practices that purposefully damage or modify female genital organs for non-medical purposes. It often takes place between the ages of one and fifteen. The girl's right to decide on important choices affecting her sexual and reproductive health is violated because the act is usually performed without her consent and frequently against her will. UNICEF, the United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund, aggressively combats the issue of FGM in Sudan. Numerous programs were started by NGOs to stop the practice. To our knowledge, no scientific study has been conducted to evaluate the effects of such social marketing techniques on simulating and comprehending society’s feelings surrounding FGM. This study proposes the development of a structural equation model aiming to determine the impact of awareness programs on people’s intentions to adopt the behavior of abandoning FGM based on theoretical models of behavior change. The model incorporates all the relevant factors that contribute to FGM and possible strategic actions to tackle this problem. The theoretical backdrop for FGM is presented in the next section, which also explains the practice's history, justifications, and potential treatments. The methodology section that follows describes the structural equation model. The proposed model, which compiles all the pertinent elements into a single image, is presented in the fourth part. Finally, conclusions are reached, and suggestions for further research are made.

Keywords: social marketing, policy-making, behavioral change, female genital mutilation, culture

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Authors: Nuur Insan Tangkelangi

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Needs on academic writing competence as the primary focus in higher education encourage the university institutions around the world to provide academic writing courses to support their students dealing with their tasks pertaining to this competence. However, a pilot study conducted previously in one of the universities in Palopo, a city in South Sulawesi, revealed that even though the institution has provided academic writing courses, supported by some workshops related to academic writing and some supporting facilities at campus, the students still face difficulties in completing their assignments related to academic writing, particularly in writing their theses. The present study focuses on investigating the specific needs of the students in the same institution in terms of competences required in academic writing. It is also carried out to examine whether the syllabus exists and accommodates the students’ needs or not. Questionnaire and interview were used to collect data from sixty students of sixth semester and two lecturers of the academic courses. The results reveal that the students need to learn all aspects of linguistic competence (language features, lexical phrases, academic language and vocabulary, and proper language) and some aspects in discourse competence (how to write introduction, search for appropriate literature, design research method, write coherent paragraphs, refer to sources, summarize and display data, and link sentences smoothly). Regarding the syllabus, it is found that the academic writing courses provided in the institution, where this study takes place, do not have syllabus. This condition is different from other institutions which provide syllabi for all courses. However, at the commencement of the course, the students and the lecturers have negotiated their learning goals, topics discussed, learning activities, and assessment criteria for the course. Therefore, even though the syllabus does not exist, but the elements of the syllabus are there. The negotiation between the students and the lecturers contributes to the students’ attitude toward the courses. The students are contented with the course and they feel that their needs in academic writing have been accommodated. However, some suggestions for the next academic writing courses are stated by the students. Considering the results of this study, a syllabus is then proposed which is expected to accommodate the specific needs of students in that institution.

Keywords: Students' needs, academic writing, syllabus design for instruction, case study

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Authors: Mohamed Aboelghar, Ayman Abou Hadid, Usama Albehairy, Asmaa Khater

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Sustainable agricultural development of the desert areas of Egypt under the pressure of irrigation water scarcity is a significant national challenge. Existing water harvesting techniques on the northwest coast of Egypt do not ensure the optimal use of rainfall for agricultural purposes. Basin-scale hydrology potentialities were studied to investigate how available annual rainfall could be used to increase agricultural production. All data related to agricultural production included in the form of geospatial layers. Thematic classification of Sentinal-2 imagery was carried out to produce the land cover and crop maps following the (FAO) system of land cover classification. Contour lines and spot height points were used to create a digital elevation model (DEM). Then, DEM was used to delineate basins, sub-basins, and water outlet points using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (Arc SWAT). Main soil units of the study area identified from Land Master Plan maps. Climatic data collected from existing official sources. The amount of precipitation, surface water runoff, potential, and actual evapotranspiration for the years (2004 to 2017) shown as results of (Arc SWAT). The land cover map showed that the two tree crops (olive and fig) cover 195.8 km2 when herbaceous crops (barley and wheat) cover 154 km2. The maximum elevation was 250 meters above sea level when the lowest one was 3 meters below sea level. The study area receives a massive variable amount of precipitation; however, water harvesting methods are inappropriate to store water for purposes.

Keywords: water catchements, remote sensing, GIS, sustainable agricultural development

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Authors: Lalita Panchal, Zulfiya Sheikh

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Fluoride is essential for teeth and bones development not only for human beings but also for animals. But excess intake of fluoride causes harmful effects on health. Fluorosis is a worldwide health hazard and India is also one of the endemic countries. Udaipur district of Rajasthan is also prone to fluorosis and superphosphate industries are aggravating fluoride toxicity in this area. Grazing fields for animals in the close vicinity of the industries, fodder and water are fluoride contaminated. Fluoride toxicity in the form of dental fluorosis was observed in domestic animals, inhabiting industrial area near Udaipur, where superphosphate fertilizer plants are functioning and releasing fluoride and fumes and effluents into the surroundings. These fumes and gases directly affect the vegetation of grazing field, thus allowing entry of fluoride into the food chain. A survey was conducted in this area to assess the severity of fluorosis, in 2015-16. It was a house to house survey and animal owners were asked for their fodder and water supply. Anterior teeth of the animal were observed. Domestic animals exhibited mild to severe signs of dental fluorosis. Teeth showed deep brown staining, patches, lines and abrasions. Even immature animals were affected badly. Most of the domestic animals were affected, but goats of this area showed chronic symptoms of fluorosis. Due to abrasion of teeth and paining teeth their chewing or grazing capacity and appetite reduced. Eventually, it reduced the life span of animals and increased the mortality rate.

Keywords: domestic animals, fluoride toxicity, industrial fluorosis, superphosphate fertilizers

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Authors: Rudy Bahouth, Farouk Benmeddour, Emmanuel Moulin, Jamal Assaad

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Guided ultrasonic waves are used in Non-Destructive Testing (NDT) and Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) for inspection and damage detection. Recently, wireless data transmission using ultrasonic waves in solid metallic channels has gained popularity in some industrial applications such as nuclear, aerospace and smart vehicles. The idea is to find a good substitute for electromagnetic waves since they are highly attenuated near metallic components due to Faraday shielding. The proposed solution is to use ultrasonic guided waves such as Lamb waves as an information carrier due to their capability of propagation for long distances. In addition to this, valuable information about the health of the structure could be extracted simultaneously. In this work, the reliable frequency bandwidth for communication is extracted experimentally from dispersion curves at first. Then, an experimental platform for wireless communication using Lamb waves is described and built. After this, coherent demodulation algorithm used in telecommunications is tested for Amplitude Shift Keying, On-Off Keying and Binary Phase Shift Keying modulation techniques. Signal processing parameters such as threshold choice, number of cycles per bit and Bit Rate are optimized. Experimental results are compared based on the average Bit Error Rate. Results have shown high sensitivity to threshold selection for Amplitude Shift Keying and On-Off Keying techniques resulting a Bit Rate decrease. Binary Phase Shift Keying technique shows the highest stability and data rate between all tested modulation techniques.

Keywords: lamb waves communication, wireless communication, coherent demodulation, bit error rate

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Authors: Arman Kishan, Mark Haft, Steve Li, Duc Nguyen, Dawn Laporte

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Objective: Patients with Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) often face higher postoperative complication rates. Limited data exist on outcomes in T2DM patients undergoing carpal tunnel release (CTR). This study aims to compare complication rates between endoscopic CTR (ECTR) and open CTR (OCTR) in patients with T2DM. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study using the TriNetX database of 56741 patients with T2DM undergoing ECTR (N= 14,949) or OCTR (N= 41,792). Demographic data, medical comorbidities, and complication rates were analyzed. We used multivariable analysis to identify differences in postoperative complication rates between the two treatment methods in patients with T2DM. Results: Patients with T2DM undergoing ECTR had a significantly lower incidence of 90-day wound infection (p < 0.001), 90-day wound dehiscence (p < 0.001), and nerve injury (p < 0.001) when compared to patients who underwent OCTR. After matching, there was a significantly higher number of T2DM patients undergoing ECTR who had peripheral vascular disease (p = 0.045) and hypertension (p = 0.020) when compared to the OCTR group. These patients also had a lower incidence of fluid and electrolyte disorders (p = 0.002) and chronic blood loss anemia (p = 0.025). Conclusion: ECTR presents a superior choice for T2DM patients undergoing CTR, yielding significantly lower rates of wound infection, wound dehiscence, and nerve injury within 90 days post-surgery—reducing the risk by 31%, 48%, and 59%, respectively. These findings support the adoption of ECTR as the preferred method in this patient population, potentially leading to improved postoperative outcomes.

Keywords: endoscopic treatment of carpal tunnel syndrome, open treatment of carpal tunnel syndrome, carpal tunnel syndrome, postoperative complications in patients with diabetes mellitus

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Authors: Mattahias Maj, Fabio Tatzgern, Karl Adam, Damir Kahrimanovic, Markus Varga

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Torpedo ladles are necessary transport carriages in steel production to move the molten crude iron from the blast furnace to the steel refining plant. This requires the ladles to be high temperature resistant and insulate well to preserve the temperature and hold the risk of solidification at bay. Therefore, the involved refractories lining the inside of the torpedo ladles are chosen mostly according to their thermal properties, although wear of the materials by the liquid iron is also of major importance. In this work, we combined investigations of the thermal behaviour with wear studies of the lining over the whole lifetime of a torpedo ladle. Additional numerical simulations enabled a detailed model of the mechanical loads and temperature propagation at the various stations (heating, filling, emptying, cooling). The core of the investigation were detailed 3D measurements of the ladle’s cavity and thereby quantitative information of the wear progress at different time intervals during the lifetime of the ladles. The measurements allowed for a separation of different wear zones according to severity, namely the “splash zone” where the melt directly hits the ladle, the “melt zone” where during transport always liquid melt is present, and the “slag zone”, where the slag floats on the melt causing the most severe wear loss. Numerical simulations of the filling process were taken to calculate stress levels and temperature gradients, which led to the different onset of wear on those zones. Thermal imaging and punctual temperature measurements allowed for a study of the thermal consequences entailed by the wear onset. Additional “classical” damage analysis of the worn refractories complete the investigation. Thereby the wear mechanisms leading to the substantial wear loss were disclosed.

Keywords: high temperature, tribology, liquid-solid interaction, refractories, thermography

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Authors: Madhuri S. Ghate, Rahul P. Chavhan, Shriya S. Nahar

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Learning objective: •To describe Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) imaging appearances of typical and atypical uterine fibroids with emphasis on differentiating it from other similar conditions. •To classify uterine fibroids according to International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) Sub-classifications system and emphasis on its clinical significance. •To show cases with atypical imaging appearances atypical fibroids Material and methods: MRI of Pelvis had been performed in symptomatic women of child bearing age group on 1.5T and 3T MRI using T1, T2, STIR, FAT SAT, DWI sequences. Contrast was administered when degeneration was suspected. Imaging appearances of Atypical fibroids and various degenerations in fibroids were studied. Fibroids were classified using FIGO Sub-classification system. Its impact on surgical decision making and clinical outcome were also studied qualitatively. Results: Intramural fibroids were most common (14 patients), subserosal 7 patients, submucosal 5 patients . 6 patients were having multiple fibroids. 7 were having atypical fibroids. (1 hyaline degeneration, 1 cystic degeneration, 1 fatty, 1 necrosis and hemorrhage, 1 red degeneration, 1 calcification, 1 unusual large bilobed growth). Fibroids were classified using FIGO system. In uterus conservative surgeries, the lesser was the degree of myometrial invasion of fibroid, better was the fertility outcome. Conclusion: Relationship of fibroid with mucosal and serosal layers is important in the management of symptomatic fibroid cases. Risk to fertility involved in uterus conservative surgeries in women of child bearing age group depends on the extent of myometrial invasion of fibroids. FIGO system provides better insight into the degree of myometrial invasion. Knowledge about the atypical appearances of fibroids is important to avoid diagnostic confusion and untoward treatment.

Keywords: degeneration, FIGO sub-classification, MRI pelvis, uterine fibroids

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Authors: A. A. Adedini, B. A. Aina, P. U. Ogbo

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Child obesity is on the rise globally. According to the World Health Organization, the number of obese children would increase to 70 million by 2025 if no intervention is made. An increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity amongst school children in Lagos State, Nigeria has been established but specific factors promoting its prevalence are unknown. This aim of this study is to identify the commonly expressed factor(s) responsible for the rise in prevalence of child overweight and obesity in Lagos, Nigeria. Five focus group discussions were conducted with different groups of stake-holders involved in child care, namely: parents, teachers and health workers. Participants were recruited using a purposive sampling method; a validated question guide was employed for the discussion sessions. The discussions were recorded, collated, analysed using Grounded theory to extract themes. Six themes emerged from the discussions as follows: Civilization and lifestyle imbalance resulting from busy work schedules of young mothers leading to adoption of westernized culture promoting preference for processed and fast food meals; insecurity and congestion of the state which discourages out-door activities; ignorance of the populace on the prevalence of child obesity in the state; inadequate educative and enlightenment programmes in schools and by the Nigerian government; myths on child care and body physique and societal perceptions of the children born into affluent homes. Some of the factors responsible for the rise in the prevalence of child obesity in Lagos, Nigeria have been identified. Preventive strategies to control the prevalence of obesity in children residing in Lagos state is considered for further studies.

Keywords: Childhood Obesity, factors, lagos state, stakeholders

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Authors: Dagim Dessalegn Haile

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This study investigated the interaction between the drivers' socio-demographic background information (age, gender, and driving experience) and the risky events score in the i-DREAMS platform. Further, the relationship between the participants' background driving behavior and the i-DREAMS platform behavioral output scores of risky events was also investigated. The i-DREAMS acronym stands for Smart Driver and Road Environment Assessment and Monitoring System. It is a European Union Horizon 2020 funded project consisting of 13 partners, researchers, and industry partners from 8 countries. A total of 25 Belgian car drivers (16 male and nine female) were considered for analysis. Drivers' ages were categorized into ages 18-25, 26-45, 46-65, and 65 and older. Drivers' driving experience was also categorized into four groups: 1-15, 16-30, 31-45, and 46-60 years. Drivers are classified into two clusters based on the recorded score for risky events during phase 1 (baseline) using risky events; acceleration, deceleration, speeding, tailgating, overtaking, and lane discipline. Agglomerative hierarchical clustering using SPSS shows Cluster 1 drivers are safer drivers, and Cluster 2 drivers are identified as risky drivers. The analysis result indicated no significant relationship between age groups, gender, and experience groups except for risky events like acceleration, tailgating, and overtaking in a few phases. This is mainly because the fewer participants create less variability of socio-demographic background groups. Repeated measure ANOVA shows that cluster 2 drivers improved more than cluster 1 drivers for tailgating, lane discipline, and speeding events. A positive relationship between background drivers' behavior and i-DREAMS platform behavioral output scores is observed. It implies that car drivers who in the questionnaire data indicate committing more risky driving behavior demonstrate more risky driver behavior in the i-DREAMS observed driving data.

Keywords: i-dreams, car drivers, socio-demographic background, risky events

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Authors: Y. P. Wang, J. K. Chen, C. H. Lee, G. H. Huang, M. C. Wang, S. W. Chen, Y. T. Kuan, H. C. Lin, C. Y. Huang, W. H. Liang, W. C. Lin, H. C. Yu

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The hi-tech industries in the Science Park at southern Taiwan were heavily damaged by a strong earthquake early 2016. The financial loss in this event was attributed primarily to the automated stocker system handling fully processed products, and recovery of the automated stocker system from the aftermath proved to contribute major lead time. Therefore, development of effective means for protection of stockers against earthquakes has become the highest priority for risk minimization and business continuity. This study proposes to mitigate the seismic response of the stockers by introducing viscous fluid dampers in between the ceiling and the top of the stockers. The stocker is expected to vibrate less violently with a passive control force on top. Linear damper is considered in this application with an optimal damping coefficient determined from a preliminary parametric study. The damper is small in size in comparison with those adopted for building or bridge applications. Component test of the dampers has been carried out to make sure they meet the design requirement. Shake table tests have been further conducted to verify the proposed scheme under realistic earthquake conditions. Encouraging results have been achieved by effectively reducing the seismic responses of up to 60% and preventing the FOUPs from falling off the shelves that would otherwise be the case if left unprotected. Effectiveness of adopting a viscous fluid damper for seismic control of the stocker on top against the ceiling has been confirmed. This technique has been adopted by Macronix International Co., LTD for seismic retrofit of existing stockers. Demonstrative projects on the application of the proposed technique are planned underway for other companies in the display industry as well.

Keywords: hi-tech industries, seismic protection, automated stocker system, viscous fluid damper

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Authors: Shan-Hong Ying, Ying-Fang Wang

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A surrogate approach was deployed for assessing exposures of multiple chemicals at the selected working area of coating processes and applied to assess the exposure concentration of similar exposed groups using the same chemicals but different formula ratios. For the selected area, 6 to 12 portable photoionization detector (PID) were placed uniformly in its workplace to measure its total VOCs concentrations (CT-VOCs) for 6 randomly selected workshifts. Simultaneously, one sampling strain was placed beside one of these portable PIDs, and the collected air sample was analyzed for individual concentration (CVOCi) of 5 VOCs (xylene, butanone, toluene, butyl acetate, and dimethylformamide). Predictive models were established by relating the CT-VOCs to CVOCi of each individual compound via simple regression analysis. The established predictive models were employed to predict each CVOCi based on the measured CT-VOC for each the similar working area using the same portable PID. Results show that predictive models obtained from simple linear regression analyses were found with an R2 = 0.83~0.99 indicating that CT-VOCs were adequate for predicting CVOCi. In order to verify the validity of the exposure prediction model, the sampling analysis of the above chemical substances was further carried out and the correlation between the measured value (Cm) and the predicted value (Cp) was analyzed. It was found that there is a good correction between the predicted value and measured value of each measured chemical substance (R2=0.83~0.98). Therefore, the surrogate approach could be assessed the exposure concentration of similar exposed groups using the same chemicals but different formula ratios. However, it is recommended to establish the prediction model between the chemical substances belonging to each coater and the direct-reading PID, which is more representative of reality exposure situation and more accurately to estimate the long-term exposure concentration of operators.

Keywords: exposure assessment, exposure prediction model, surrogate approach, TVOC

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Authors: Tanja Kreitenweis

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Lifelong learning is increasingly seen as essential for coping with the rapidly changing work environment. To this end, serious games can provide convenient and straightforward access to complex knowledge for all age groups. However, learning achievements depend largely on a learner’s non-cognitive skill disposition (e.g., motivation, self-belief, playfulness, and openness). With the aim of combining the fields of serious games and non-cognitive skills, this research focuses in particular on the use of a business simulation, which conveys change management insights. Business simulations are a subset of serious games and are perceived as a non-traditional learning method. The presented objectives of this work are versatile: (1) developing a scale, which measures learners’ knowledge and skills level before and after a business simulation was played, (2) investigating the influence of non-cognitive skills on learning in this business simulation environment and (3) exploring the moderating role of team preference in this type of learning setting. First, expert interviews have been conducted to develop an appropriate measure for learners’ skills and knowledge assessment. A pretest-posttest experimental design with German management students was implemented to approach the remaining objectives. By using the newly developed, reliable measure, it was found that students’ skills and knowledge state were higher after the simulation had been played, compared to before. A hierarchical regression analysis revealed two positive predictors for this outcome: motivation and self-esteem. Unexpectedly, playfulness had a negative impact. Team preference strengthened the link between grit and playfulness, respectively, and learners’ skills and knowledge state after completing the business simulation. Overall, the data underlined the potential of business simulations to improve learners’ skills and knowledge state. In addition, motivational factors were found as predictors for benefitting most from the applied business simulation. Recommendations are provided for how pedagogues can use these findings.

Keywords: business simulations, change management, (experiential) learning, non-cognitive skills, serious games

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Authors: Khaled Barkaoui

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Research on second-language (L2) learning tends to focus on comparing students with different levels of proficiency at one point in time. However, to understand L2 development, we need more longitudinal research. In this study, we adopt a longitudinal approach to examine changes in three indicators of L2 ability, complexity, accuracy, and fluency (CAF), as reflected in the writing of L2 learners when writing on different tasks before and after a period L2 instruction. Each of 85 Chinese learners of English at three levels of English language proficiency responded to two writing tasks (independent and integrated) before and after nine months of English-language study in China. Each essay (N= 276) was analyzed in terms of numerous CAF indices using both computer coding and human rating: number of words written, number of errors per 100 words, ratings of error severity, global syntactic complexity (MLS), complexity by coordination (T/S), complexity by subordination (C/T), clausal complexity (MLC), phrasal complexity (NP density), syntactic variety, lexical density, lexical variation, lexical sophistication, and lexical bundles. Results were then compared statistically across tasks, L2 proficiency levels, and time. Overall, task type had significant effects on fluency and some syntactic complexity indices (complexity by coordination, structural variety, clausal complexity, phrase complexity) and lexical density, sophistication, and bundles, but not accuracy. L2 proficiency had significant effects on fluency, accuracy, and lexical variation, but not syntactic complexity. Finally, fluency, frequency of errors, but not accuracy ratings, syntactic complexity indices (clausal complexity, global complexity, complexity by subordination, phrase complexity, structural variety) and lexical complexity (lexical density, variation, and sophistication) exhibited significant changes after instruction, particularly for the independent task. We discuss the findings and their implications for assessment, instruction, and research on CAF in the context of L2 writing.

Keywords: second language writing, Fluency, accuracy, complexity, longitudinal

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Authors: Happy Zulu

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Neuropsychological examination is an important way of formally assessing brain function. While there is so much documentation about the influence that some factors, such as age and education, have on neuropsychological tests (NP), not so much has been done to assess the influence that residency (rural/urban) may have. The specific objectives of this study were to establish if there is a significant difference in mean test scores on NP tests between rural and urban participants and to assess which tests on the Zambia Neurobehavioural Test Battery (ZNTB) are more affected by the participants‘ residency (rural/urban) and to determine the extent to which education, gender, and age predict test performance on NP tests for rural and urban participants. The participants (324) were drawn from both urban and rural areas of Zambia (Rural = 152 and Urban = 172). However, only 234 participants (Rural = 152 and Urban 82) were used for all the analyses in this particular study. The 234 participants were used as the actual proportion of the rural vs urban population in Zambia was 65% : 35%, respectively (CSO, 2003). The rural-urban ratio for the participants that were captured during the data collection process was 152 : 172, respectively. Thus, all the rural participants (152) were included and 90 of the 172 urban participants were randomly excluded so that the rural/urban ratio reached the desired 65% : 35 % which was the required ideal statistic for appropriate representation of the actual population in Zambia. Data on NP tests were analyzed from 234 participants, rural (N=152) reflecting 65% and urban (N=82) reflecting 35%. T-tests indicated that urban participants had superior performances in all the seven NP test domains, and all the mean differences in all these domains were found to be statistically significant. Residency had a large or moderate effect in five domains, while its effect size was small only in two of the domains. A standard multiple regression revealed that education, age and residency as predictor variables made a significant contribution to variance in performance on various domains of the ZNTB. However, the gender of participants was not a major factor in determining one‘s performance on neuropsychological tests. This particular report is part of an ongoing, larger, cutting-edge study aimed at formulating the normative data for Zambia with regard to performance on neuropsychological tests. This is necessary for appropriate, effective, and efficient assessment or diagnosis of various neurocognitive and neurobehavioural deficits that a number of people may currently be suffering from. It has been shown in this study that it is vital to make careful analyses of the variables that may be associated with one‘s performance on neuropsychological tests.

Keywords: neuropsychology, neurobehavioural, residency, Zambia

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Authors: Yusuf Hussaini Atulukwu, Daramola Japheth, Tabitit S. Tabiti, Daramola Elizabeth Lara

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In view of the recent limitations faced by the township concerning poorly constructed and in some cases non - existence of drainage facilities that resulted into incessant flooding in some parts of the community poses threat to life,property and the environment. The research seeks to address this issue by showing the spatial distribution of drainage network in Bida Urban using Geographic information System techniques. Relevant features were extracted from existing Bida based Map using un-screen digitization and x, y, z, data of existing drainages were acquired using handheld Global Positioning System (GPS). These data were uploaded into ArcGIS 9.2, software, and stored in the relational database structure that was used to produce the spatial data drainage network of the township. The result revealed that about 40 % of the drainages are blocked with sand and refuse, 35 % water-logged as a result of building across erosion channels and dilapidated bridges as a result of lack of drainage along major roads. The study thus concluded that drainage network systems in Bida community are not in good working condition and urgent measures must be initiated in order to avoid future disasters especially with the raining season setting in. Based on the above findings, the study therefore recommends that people within the locality should avoid dumping municipal waste within the drainage path while sand blocked or weed blocked drains should be clear by the authority concerned. In the same vein the authority should ensured that contract of drainage construction be awarded to professionals and all the natural drainages caused by erosion should be addressed to avoid future disasters.

Keywords: drainage network, spatial, digitization, relational database, waste

Procedia PDF Downloads 319

Authors: Ram Moorat Singh, Arun Kumar Sharma, Ravi Chaurey

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Assessment of characteristics of Himalayan glaciers with or without glacier lakes was carried out for 1937glaciers of Kosi sub-basin, Ganga basin by using remote sensing and GIS techniques. Analysis of IRS-P6 AWiFS Data of 2004-07 periods, SRTM DEM and MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) data (15year mean) using image processing and GIS tools has provided significant information on various glacier parameters. The glacier area, length, width, ice exposed area, debris cover area, glacier slope, orientation, elevation and temperature data was analysed. The 119 supra glacier lakes and 62 moraine dam/peri-glacier lakes (area > 0.02 km2) in the study were studied to discern the suitable glacier conditions for glacier lake formation. On analysis it is observed that the glacial lakes are preferably formed in association with large dimension glaciers (area, length and width), glaciers with higher percent ice exposed area, lower percent debris cover area and in general mean elevation value greater than 5300 m amsl. On analysis of lake type shows that the moraine dam lakes are formed associated with glaciers located at relatively higher altitude as compared to altitude of glaciers with supra glacier lakes. Analysis of frequency of occurrence of lakes vis a vis glacier orientation shows that more number of glacier lakes are formed associated with glaciers having orientation south, south east, south west, east and west directions. The supra glacial lakes are formed in association with glaciers having higher mean temperature as compared to moraine dam lakes as verified using LST data of 15 years (2000-2014).

Keywords: remote sensing, supra glacial lake, Himalaya, Kosi sub-basin, glaciers, moraine-dammed lake

Procedia PDF Downloads 359

Authors: Jelena Filipović, Milenko Košutić, Vladimir Filipović

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In the last decades urban population is characterized by sedentary lifestyles, low physical activity and "fast food". These changes in diet and physical non activity have been associated with the increase of chronic non diseases. Bread is one of the most popularly wheat products consumed worldwide. Spelt wheat has shown potential in various food applications, including bread, pasta, breakfast cereal and other products of altered nutritional characteristics compared to conventional wheat products. It has very high protein content and even 30 to 60% higher concentration of mineral elements Fe, Zn, Cu, Mg and P compared to Triticum Aestivum. Spelt wheat is growing without the use of pesticides in harsh ecological conditions and it is an old cultivar. So it can be used for organic and health safe food. Changes in the formulation of bread with the aim to improve their nutritional and functional properties usually lead to changes in the dough properties which is related reflected to the quality of the finished product. The aim of this paper is researching the impact of adding yeast extract to bread on sensory characteristics and consumer acceptance of a new product as a key factor for successful marketing of a new product. The sensory analysis of bread with 5% yeast extract is as follows: the technological quality is very good (3.8) and the color of the product is excellent (4.85). Based on data consumers survey declared that they liked the taste of bread with 5% yeast extract (74%), consumers marked the product as likeable (70%), and 75% of the total number of respondents would buy this new product. This paper is promoting a new type of bread with 5% yeast extract (Z score 0.80) to improve diet and novel functional product which intended for consumers conscious about their health and diet.

Keywords: bread, yeast extract, sensory analysis, consumer survey, score analysis Z

Procedia PDF Downloads 43

Authors: Shree Kumar Maharjan

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Climate change has varied impacts on diverse livelihood sectors, which is more prominent at the community level. The stakeholders and local institutions have been supporting the communities either by building adaptive capacities and resilience or minimizing the impacts of different adaptation interventions. Some of these interventions are effective, whereas others need further dynamisms and exertions considering the complexity of the risks and vulnerabilities. Hence, consolidated efforts of concerned stakeholders are required to minimize and adapt the present and future impacts. This study digs out and analyses the perceptions of local stakeholders in climate change adaptation in Madi and Deukhuri valleys of Nepal through a questionnaire survey. The study has categorized the local stakeholders into 5 groups in the study sites – Farmers groups and cooperatives, Government, I/NGOs, Development banks and education and other organizations. The local stakeholders revealed flood, drought, cold wave and riverbank erosion as the major climatic risks and hazards found in the sites eventually impacting on the loss of agricultural production, loss of agricultural land and properties, loss of livestock, the emergence of diseases and pest. The stakeholders believed that most of the farmers dealing with these impacts based on their traditional knowledge and practices, followed by with the support of NGOs and with the help of neighbors and community. The major supports of the stakeholders to deal with these impacts were on training and awareness, risk analysis and minimization, livelihood improvement, financial support, coordination and networking and facilitation in policy formulation. The stakeholders emphasized primarily on capacity building, appropriate technologies, community-based planning and monitoring, prioritization to the poor and the marginalized and establishment of community fund respectively for building adaptive capacities.

Keywords: climate change adaptation, local stakeholders, Madi, Deukhuri, Nepal

Procedia PDF Downloads 171

Authors: Muhammad Naveed Babur, Maria Liaqat

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Background & Objective: People with disabilities especially neurological disabilities have many unmet health and rehabilitation needs, face barriers in accessing mainstream health-care services, and consequently have poor health. There are not sufficient epidemiological studies from Pakistan which assess barriers to neurorehabilitation and ways to counter it. Objectives: The objective of the study was to determine the challenges and to evaluate the barriers for neuro-rehabilitation services in developing countries. Methods: This is Exploratory sequential qualitative study based on the Panel discussion forum in International rehabilitation sciences congress and national rehabilitation conference 2017. Panel group discussion has been conducted in February 2017 with a sample size of eight professionals including Rehabilitation medicine Physician, Physical Therapist, Speech Language therapist, Occupational Therapist, Clinical Psychologist and rehabilitation nurse working in multidisciplinary/Interdisciplinary team. A comprehensive audio-videography have been developed, recorded, transcripted and documented. Data was transcribed and thematic analysis along with characteristics was drawn manually. Data verification was done with the help of two separate coders. Results: After extraction of two separate coders following results are emerged. General category themes are disease profile, demographic profile, training and education, research, barriers, governance, global funding, informal care, resources and cultural beliefs and public awareness. Barriers identified at the level are high cost, stigma, lengthy course of recovery. Hospital related barriers are lack of social support and individually tailored goal setting processes. Organizational barriers identified are lack of basic diagnostic facilities, lack of funding and human resources. Recommendations given by panelists were investment in education, capacity building, infrastructure, governance support, strategies to promote communication and realistic goals. Conclusion: It is concluded that neurorehabilitation in developing countries need attention in following categories i.e. disease profile, demographic profile, training and education, research, barriers, governance, global funding, informal care, resources and cultural beliefs and public awareness. This study also revealed barriers at the level of patient, hospital, organization. Recommendations were also given by panelists.

Keywords: disability, neurorehabilitation, telerehabilitation, disability

Procedia PDF Downloads 164

Authors: Luksanaporn Krungkraipetch

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Pterygium is a frequent ocular surface lesion that begins in the limbal conjunctiva within the palpebral fissure and spreads to the cornea. The lesion is more common in the nasal limbus than in the temporal, and it has a wing-like aspect. Indications for surgery, in decreasing order of significance, are growth over the corneal center, decreased vision due to corneal deformation, documented growth, sensations of discomfort, and esthetic concerns. The aim of this study is twofold: first, to determine the frequency of pterygium recurrence after surgery at the mentioned hospital, and second, to identify the factors that influence the recurrence of pterygium. The research design is a retrospective examination of 164 patient samples in an eastern Thai university hospital (Code 13766). Data analysis is descriptive statistics analysis, i.e., basic data details about pterygium surgery and the risk of recurrent pterygium, and for factor analysis, the inferential statistics chi-square and ANOVA are utilized. Twenty-four of the 164 patients who underwent surgery exhibited recurrent pterygium. Consequently, the incidence of recurrent pterygium after surgery was 14.6%. There were an equal number of men and women present. The participants' ages ranged from 41 to 60 years (62, 8 percent). According to the findings, the majority of patients were female (60.4%), over the age of 60 (51.2%), did not live near the beach (83.5%), did not have an underlying disease (92.1%), and 95.7% did not have any other eye problems. Gender (X² = 1.26, p = .289), age (X² = 5.86, p = .119), an address near the sea (X² = 3.30, p = .081)), underlying disease (X² = 0.54, p = .694), and eye disease (X² = 0.00, p = 1.00) had no effect on pterygium recurrence. Recurrences occurred in 79.1% of all surgical procedures and 11.6% of all patients using the bare sclera technique. The recurrence rate for conjunctival autografts was 20.9% for all procedures and 3.0% for all participants. Mitomycin-C and amniotic membrane transplant techniques had no recurrence following surgery. Comparing the surgeries done on people with recurrent pterygium did not show anything important (F = 1.13, p = 0.339). In conclusion, the prevalence of pterygium recurrence following pterygium, 14.6%, does not differ from earlier research. Underlying disease, other eye conditions, and surgical procedures such as pterygium recurrence are unaffected by pterygium surgery.

Keywords: pterygium, recurrence pterygium, pterygium surgery, excision pterygium

Procedia PDF Downloads 54

Authors: Archana. S, Usha Rani. G, Anand Balakrishnan, Sanjana.R, Solomon F, Vijayalakshmi. J

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Background: There is evidence that male factors contribute to the infertility of up to 50% of couples, who are evaluated and treated for infertility using advanced assisted reproductive technologies. Genetic abnormalities, including sperm chromosome aneuploidy as well as structural aberrations, are one of the major causes of male infertility. Recent advances in technology expedite the evaluation of sperm aneuploidy. The purpose of the study was to de-termine the prevalence of sperm aneuploidy in infertile males and the degree of association between DNA fragmentation and sperm aneuploidy. Methods: In this study, 75 infertile men were included, and they were divided into four abnormal groups (Oligospermia, Terato-spermia, Asthenospermia and Oligoasthenoteratospermia (OAT)). Men with children who were normozoospermia served as the control group. The Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) method was used to test for sperm aneuploidy, and the Sperm Chromatin Dispersion Assay (SCDA) was used to measure the fragmentation of sperm DNA. Spearman's correla-tion coefficient was used to evaluate the relationship between sperm aneuploidy and sperm DNA fragmentation along with age. P < 0.05 was regarded as significant. Results: 75 partic-ipants' ages varied from 28 to 48 years old (35.5±5.1). The percentage of spermatozoa bear-ing X and Y was determined to be statistically significant (p-value < 0.05) and was found to be 48.92% and 51.18% of CEP X X 1 – nucish (CEP XX 1) [100] and CEP Y X 1 – nucish (CEP Y X 1) [100]. When compared to the rate of DNA fragmentation, it was discovered that infertile males had a greater frequency of sperm aneuploidy. Asthenospermia and OAT groups in sex chromosomal aneuploidy were significantly correlated (p<0.05). Conclusion: Sperm FISH and SCDA assay results showed increased sperm aneuploidy frequency, and DNA fragmentation index in infertile men compared with fertile men. There is a significant relationship observed between sperm aneuploidy and DNA fragmentation in OAT patients. When evaluating male variables and idiopathic infertility, the sperm FISH screening method can be used as a valuable diagnostic tool.

Keywords: ale infertility, dfi (dna fragmentation assay) (scd-sperm chromatin dispersion).art (artificial reproductive technology), trisomy, aneuploidy, fish (fluorescence in-situ hybridization), oat (oligoasthoteratospermia)

Procedia PDF Downloads 38

Authors: Teklay Gebrecherkos, Dawit Wolday, Muhamud Abdulkader

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Background: COVID-19 symptomatology in Africa appears significantly less serious than in the industrialized world. Our hypothesis for this phenomenon, being a different, more activated immune system due to parasite infections contributes to reduced COVID-19 outcome. We investigated this hypothesis in an endemic area in sub sub-saharan Africa. Methods: Ethiopian COVID-19 patients were enrolled and screened for intestinal parasites, between July 2020 and March 2021. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients with severe COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed by RT-PCR on samples obtained from nasopharyngeal swabs, while direct microscopic examination, modified Ritchie concentration, and Kato-Katz methods were used to identify parasites and ova from a fresh stool sample. Ordinal logistic regression models were used to estimate the association between parasite infection and COVID-19 severity. Models were adjusted for sex, age, residence, education level, occupation, body mass index, and comorbidities. Data were analyzed using STATA version 14. P-value <0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: A total of 751 SARS-CoV-2 infected patients were enrolled, of whom 284 (37•8%) had an intestinal parasitic infection. Only 27/255 (10•6%) severe COVID-19 patients were co-infected with intestinal parasites, while 257/496 (51•8%) non-severe COVID-19 patients appeared parasite positive (p<0.0001). Patients co-infected with parasites had lower odds of developing severe COVID-19, with an adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of 0•14 (95% CI 0•09–0•24; p<0•0001) for all parasites, AOR 0•20 ([95% CI 0•11–0•38]; p<0•0001) for protozoa, and AOR 0•13 ([95% CI 0•07–0•26]; p<0•0001) for helminths. When stratified by species, co-infection with Entamoeba spp., Hymenolopis nana, and Schistosoma mansoni implied a lower probability of developing severe COVID-19. There were 11 deaths (1•5%), and all were among patients without parasites (p=0•009). Conclusions: Parasite co-infection is associated with a reduced risk of severe COVID-19 in African patients. Parasite-driven immunomodulatory responses may mute hyper-inflammation associated with severe COVID-19.

Keywords: COVID-19, SARS-COV-2, intestinal parasite, RT-PCR, co-infection

Procedia PDF Downloads 49

Authors: Konstantinos G. Kostinakis, Manthos K. Papadopoulos, Asimina M. Athanatopoulou

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An important area of research in seismic risk analysis is the evaluation of expected seismic damage of structures under a specific earthquake ground motion. Several conventional intensity measures of ground motion have been used to estimate their damage potential to structures. Yet, none of them was proved to be able to predict adequately the seismic damage of any structural system. Therefore, alternative advanced intensity measures which take into account not only ground motion characteristics but also structural information have been proposed. The adequacy of a number of advanced earthquake intensity measures in prediction of structural damage of 3D R/C buildings under seismic excitation which attacks the building with arbitrary incident angle is investigated in the present paper. To achieve this purpose, a symmetric in plan and an asymmetric 5-story R/C building are studied. The two buildings are subjected to 20 bidirectional earthquake ground motions. The two horizontal accelerograms of each ground motion are applied along horizontal orthogonal axes forming 72 different angles with the structural axes. The response is computed by non-linear time history analysis. The structural damage is expressed in terms of the maximum interstory drift as well as the overall structural damage index. The values of the aforementioned seismic damage measures determined for incident angle 0° as well as their maximum values over all seismic incident angles are correlated with 9 structure-specific ground motion intensity measures. The research identified certain intensity measures which exhibited strong correlation with the seismic damage of the two buildings. However, their adequacy for estimation of the structural damage depends on the response parameter adopted. Furthermore, it was confirmed that the widely used spectral acceleration at the fundamental period of the structure is a good indicator of the expected earthquake damage level.

Keywords: damage indices, non-linear response, seismic excitation angle, structure-specific intensity measures

Procedia PDF Downloads 486

Authors: Pier Andrea Marras, Daniela Lima, Pedro Matos Soares, Rita Maria Cardoso, Daniela Medas, Elisabetta Dore, Giovanni De Giudici

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Climate change effects on the hydrologic cycle are the main concern for the evaluation of water management strategies. Climate models project scenarios of precipitation changes in the future, considering greenhouse emissions. In this study, the EURO-CORDEX (European Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) climate models were first evaluated in a Mediterranean island (Sardinia) against observed precipitation for a historical reference period (1976-2005). A weighted multi-model ensemble (ENS) was built, weighting the single models based on their ability to reproduce observed rainfall. Future projections (2071-2100) were carried out using the 8.5 RCP emissions scenario to evaluate changes in precipitations. ENS was then used as climate forcing for the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), with the aim to assess the consequences of such projected changes on streamflow and runoff of two small catchments located in the South-West Sardinia. Results showed that a decrease of mean rainfall values, up to -25 % at yearly scale, is expected for the future, along with an increase of extreme precipitation events. Particularly in the eastern and southern areas, extreme events are projected to increase by 30%. Such changes reflect on the hydrologic cycle with a decrease of mean streamflow and runoff, except in spring, when runoff is projected to increase by 20-30%. These results stress that the Mediterranean is a hotspot for climate change, and the use of model tools can provide very useful information to adopt water and land management strategies to deal with such changes.

Keywords: EURO-CORDEX, climate change, hydrology, SWAT model, Sardinia, multi-model ensemble

Procedia PDF Downloads 199