Search results for: risk factors for flap failure

Authors: David Glew, Felix Thomas, Matthew Brooke-Peat

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Improving the thermal performance of homes is seen as an essential step in achieving climate change, fuel security, fuel poverty targets. One of the most effective thermal retrofits is to insulate solid walls. However, it has been observed that applying insulation to the internal face of solid walls reduces the surface temperature of the inner wall leaf, which may introduce condensation risk and may interrupt seasonal moisture accumulation and dissipation. This research quantifies the extent to which the risk of condensation and moisture accumulation in the wall increases (which can increase the risk of timber rot) following the installation of six different types of internal wall insulation. In so doing, it compares how risk is affected by both the thermal resistance, thickness, and breathability of the insulation. Thermal bridging, surface temperatures, condensation risk, and moisture accumulation are evaluated using hygrothermal simulation software before and after the thermal upgrades. The research finds that installing internal wall insulation will always introduce some risk of condensation and moisture. However, it identifies that risks were present prior to insulation and that breathable materials and insulation with lower resistance have lower risks than alternative insulation options. The implications of this may be that building standards that encourage the enhanced thermal performance of solid walls may be introducing moisture risks into homes.

Keywords: condensation risk, hygrothermal simulation, internal wall insulation, thermal bridging

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Authors: Lagnajeet Mohanty, Mohnish Mishra, Pratham Tapdiya, Himanshu Sekhar Nayak, Swetapadma Singh

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In the era of global interconnectedness, effective risk assessment and management are critical for organizational resilience. This review explores the integration of machine learning (ML) into risk processes, examining its transformative potential and the challenges it presents. The literature reveals ML's success in sectors like consumer credit, demonstrating enhanced predictive accuracy, adaptability, and potential cost savings. However, ethical considerations, interpretability issues, and the demand for skilled practitioners pose limitations. Looking forward, the study identifies future research scopes, including refining ethical frameworks, advancing interpretability techniques, and fostering interdisciplinary collaborations. The synthesis of limitations and future directions highlights the dynamic landscape of ML in risk management, urging stakeholders to navigate challenges innovatively. This abstract encapsulates the evolving discourse on ML's role in shaping proactive and effective risk management strategies in our interconnected and unpredictable global landscape.

Keywords: machine learning, risk assessment, ethical considerations, financial inclusion

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Authors: Jelena Vucicevic

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Reliability analysis represents a very important task in different areas of work. In any industry, this is crucial for maintenance, efficiency, safety and monetary costs. There are ways to calculate reliability, unreliability, failure density and failure rate. In this paper, the results for the reliability of diesel generator fans were calculated through Extreme Value Theory. The Extreme Value Theory is not widely used in the engineering field. Its usage is well known in other areas such as hydrology, meteorology, finance. The significance of this theory is in the fact that unlike the other statistical methods it is focused on rare and extreme values, and not on average. It should be noted that this theory is not designed exclusively for extreme events, but for extreme values in any event. Therefore, this is a great opportunity to apply the theory and test if it could be applied in this situation. The significance of the work is the calculation of time to failure or reliability in a new way, using statistic. Another advantage of this calculation is that there is no need for technical details and it can be implemented in any part for which we need to know the time to fail in order to have appropriate maintenance, but also to maximize usage and minimize costs. In this case, calculations have been made on diesel generator fans but the same principle can be applied to any other part. The data for this paper came from a field engineering study of the time to failure of diesel generator fans. The ultimate goal was to decide whether or not to replace the working fans with a higher quality fan to prevent future failures. The results achieved in this method will show the approximation of time for which the fans will work as they should, and the percentage of probability of fans working more than certain estimated time. Extreme Value Theory can be applied not only for rare and extreme events, but for any event that has values which we can consider as extreme.

Keywords: extreme value theory, lifetime, reliability analysis, statistic, time to failure

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Authors: Fayaz Moosavi, Saeid Moradyfard

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One of the methods in avoiding management fraud and increasing the quality of financial information, is the notification of qualitative features of financial information, including conservatism characteristic. Although taking a conservatism approach, while boosting the quality of financial information, is able to reduce the informational risk and the cost of capital stock of commercial department, by presenting an improper image about the situation of the commercial department, raises the risk of failure in returning the main and capital interest, and consequently the cost of capital of the commercial department. In order to know if conservatism finally leads to the increase or decrease of the cost of capital or does not have any influence on it, information regarding accepted companies in Tehran stock exchange is utilized by application of pooling method from 2007 to 2012 and it included 124 companies. The results of the study revealed that there is an opposite and meaningful relationship between conditional conservatism and the cost of capital of the company. In other words, if bad and unsuitable news and signs are reflected sooner than good news in accounting profit, the cost of capital of the company increases. In addition, there is a positive and meaningful relationship between the cost of capital and lack of information asymmetry.

Keywords: conditional conservatism, lack of information asymmetry, the cost of capital, stock exchange

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Authors: Taner Ersoz, Filiz Ersoz, Seyma Ozbilge

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In this study, the clients who applied to a bank branch for loan were analyzed through data mining. The study was composed of the information such as amounts of loans received by personal and SME clients working with the bank branch, installment numbers, number of delays in loan installments, payments available in other banks and number of banks to which they are in debt between 2010 and 2013. The client risk profile was examined through Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis, one of the decision tree classification methods. At the end of the study, 5 different types of customers have been determined on the decision tree. The classification of these types of customers has been created with the rating of those posing a risk for the bank branch and the customers have been classified according to the risk ratings.

Keywords: client classification, loan suitability, risk rating, CART analysis

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Authors: Hooman Dabirmanesh, Mahmoud Ghazavi, Kazem Barkhordari

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A finite element modeling for determination of the bearing capacity of caissons subjected to inclined loads is presented in this paper. The model investigates the uplift capacity of the caisson with varying cross sectional area. To this aim, the behavior of the soil is assumed to be elasto-plastic, and its failure is controlled by Modified Cam-Clay failure criterion. The simulation takes into account the couple analysis. The approach is verified using available data from other research work especially centrifuge data. Parametric studies are subsequently performed to investigate the effect of contributing parameters such as aspect ratio of the caisson, the loading rate, the loading direction angle, and points where the external load is applied. In addition, the influence of the caisson geometry is taken into account. The results show the bearing capacity of the caisson increases with increasing the taper angle. Hence, the pullout capacity will increase using the same material. In addition, the bearing capacity of caissons strongly depends on the suction that is generated at tip and in sealed surface on top of caisson. Other results concerning the influencing factors will be presented.

Keywords: aspect ratio, finite element method, inclined load, modified Cam clay, taper angle, undrained condition

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Authors: Nuruddeen Usman, Usman Mohammed Gidado, Muhammad Ahmad Ibrahim

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Construction industry is one of the sectors that are eyeing adoption of ICT for its development due to the advancement in technology. Though, many manufacturing sectors had been using it, but construction industry was left behind, especially in the developing nation like Nigeria. On account of that, the objective of this study is to conceptually and quantitatively synthesise whether the slow adoption of ICT by the construction industries can be attributable to cybercrime threats. The result of the investigation found that, the risk of cybercrime, and lack of adequate cyber security policies that can enforce and punish defaulters are among the things that hinder ICT adoption of the Nigerian construction industries. Therefore, there is need for the nations to educate their citizens on cybercrime risk, and to establish cybercrime police units that can be monitoring and controlling all online communications.

Keywords: construction industry, cybercrime, information and communication technology adoption, risk

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Authors: Anders Troedsson

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For us humans, risk and insecurity are intimately linked to vulnerabilities - where there is vulnerability, there is potentially risk and insecurity. Reducing vulnerability through compensatory measures means decreasing the likelihood of a certain external event be qualified as a risk/threat/assault, and thus also means increasing the individual’s sense of security. The paper suggests that a meaningful way to approach the study of risk/ insecurity is to organize thinking about the vulnerabilities that external phenomena evoke in humans as perceived by them. Such phenomena are, through a set of given vulnerabilities, potentially translated into perceptions of "insecurity." An ontological discussion about salient timespace characteristics of external phenomena as perceived by humans, including such which potentially can be qualified as risk/threat/assault, leads to the positing of two dimensions which are central for describing what in the paper is called the essence of risk/threat/assault. As is argued, such modeling helps analysis steer free of the subjective factor which is intimately connected to human perception and which mediates between phenomena “out there” potentially identified as risk/threat/assault, and their translation into an experience of security or insecurity. A proposed set of universally given vulnerabilities are scrutinized with the help of the two dimensions, resulting in a modeling effort featuring four realms of vulnerabilities which together represent a dynamic whole. This model in turn informs modeling on human security.

Keywords: human vulnerabilities, human security, immediate-inert, material-immaterial, timespace

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Authors: Abir S. AL-Harrasi, Eyad B. AL-Zadjali, Zahran S. AL-Salti

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Entrepreneurship has captured the attention of policy-makers, educators and researchers in the last few decades. It has been regarded as a main driver for economic growth, development and employment generation in many countries worldwide. However, scholars have not agreed on the key factors that impact entrepreneurial intention. This study attempts, through an extensive literature review, to provide a holistic view and a more comprehensive understanding of the key factors that lead university undergraduate students to become entrepreneurs. A systematic literature review is conducted and several scientific articles and reports have been examined. The results of this study indicate that there are four main sets of factors: the personality-traits factors, contextual factors, motivational factors, and personal background factors. This research will serve as a base for future studies and will have valuable implications for policy makers and educators.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, entrepreneurial intention, literature review, economic growth

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Authors: Urbi Pal, Piyas Palit, Jitendra Mathur, Abhay Chaturvedi, Sandip Bhattacharya

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The hot rolled slab lifting crane cable reel drum (CRD) failed due to failure of cable reel flat spring which are inside the cassette of CRD. CRD is used for the movement of tong cable. Stereoscopic observation revealed beach marks and Scanning Electron Microscopy showed striations confirming fatigue mode of failure. Chemical composition should be spring steel (Cr-Mo-V) as per IS 3431:1982 instead of C-Mn steel. To find out the reason of fatigue failure, the theoretical fatigue life of flat spiral spring has been calculated. The calculation of number of fatigue cycles included bending moment, maximum stress on the spring, ultimate tensile strength and alternative stress. The bending moment determination has been taken account with various parameters like Young’s Modulus, width, thickness, outer diameter, arbor diameter, pay out the length and angular deflection in rotations. With all the required data, the calculated fatigue life turned to be 10000 cycles, but the spring served 15000 cycles which clearly indicated beyond fatigue life usage. Different UTS values have been plotted with respect to the number of fatigue cycles and clearly showed that the increase in UTS by 40% increases fatigue life by 50%. The significance of higher UTS lied here, and higher UTS depends on modified chemistry with proper tempered martensite microstructure. This kind of failure can be easily avoided by changing the crane spring maintenance schedule from 2 years to 1.5 years considering 600 cycles per month. The plant has changed changing the schedule of cable reel spring and procured new flat reel spring made of 50CrV2 steel.

Keywords: cable reel spring, fatigue life, stress, spring steel

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Authors: Rajesh Karki, Safal Bhattarai, Saket Adhikari

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Reliable and economic operation of power systems are becoming extremely challenging with large scale integration of renewable energy sources due to the intermittency and uncertainty associated with renewable power generation. It is, therefore, important to make a quantitative risk assessment and explore the potential resources to mitigate such risks. Probabilistic models for different energy storage systems (ESS), such as the flywheel energy storage system (FESS) and the compressed air energy storage (CAES) incorporating specific charge/discharge performance and failure characteristics suitable for probabilistic risk assessment in power system operation and planning are presented in this paper. The proposed methodology used in FESS modelling offers flexibility to accommodate different configurations of plant topology. It is perceived that CAES has a high potential for grid-scale application, and a hybrid approach is proposed, which embeds a Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) method in an analytical technique to develop a suitable reliability model of the CAES. The proposed ESS models are applied to a test system to investigate the economic and reliability benefits of the energy storage technologies in system operation and planning, as well as to assess their contributions in facilitating wind integration during different operating scenarios. A comparative study considering various storage system topologies are also presented. The impacts of failure rates of the critical components of ESS on the expected state of charge (SOC) and the performance of the different types of ESS during operation are illustrated with selected studies on the test system. The paper also applies the proposed models on the test system to investigate the economic and reliability benefits of the different ESS technologies and to evaluate their contributions in facilitating wind integration during different operating scenarios and system configurations. The conclusions drawn from the study results provide valuable information to help policymakers, system planners, and operators in arriving at effective and efficient policies, investment decisions, and operating strategies for planning and operation of power systems with large penetrations of renewable energy sources.

Keywords: flywheel energy storage, compressed air energy storage, power system reliability, renewable energy, system planning, system operation

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Authors: Yadchol Tawetanawanich

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Depression of elderly is a mental health problem that impacts tremendously on the elderly themselves, their family, and society. the purposes of this descriptive research were to examine prevalence rate of elderly depression and to study factors related to depression in elderly including 1) individual factors: sex, education, marital status, 2) economic factors: occupation, adequate income 3) health factors: chronic illnesses , disability, 4) social factors: family relationship, community relationship, 5) knowledge of depression, and 6) self-care behavior. The subject in this study included 273 elderly in Ladboakao sub-district, Banpong district, Ratchaburi province, Thailand. Data were collected through questionnaires and were analyzed using percentage, mean, standard deviation, chi-square, and one-way ANOVA. The results of the study revealed that: The prevalence rate of elderly depression were 21.61%, factors included economic factors, health factors, knowledge about depression, and self-care behavior were statistically significant positively related to depression of elderly (p<0.05), but individual factors and social factors were not significantly related to depression. It is also important for nurses to assess factors related to depression of the elderly in order to develop the model of care and use self-care strategies to contribute the positive outcomes.

Keywords: associated factors, depression, elderly, self-care

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Authors: Hossein Rassi, Alaheh Gholami Roud-Majany, Zahra Razavi, Massoud Hoshmand

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Cervical cancer is multi step disease that is thought to result from an interaction between genetic background and environmental factors. Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is the leading risk factor for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN)and cervical cancer. In other hand, some of hTERT and miRNA polymorphism may plays an important role in carcinogenesis. This study attempts to clarify the relation of hTERT genotypes and miR-146a genotypes in cervical cancer. Forty two archival samples with cervical lesion retired from Khatam hospital and 40 sample from healthy persons used as control group. A simple and rapid method was used to detect the simultaneous amplification of the HPV consensus L1 region and HPV-16,-18, -11, -31, 33 and -35 along with the b-globin gene as an internal control. We use Multiplex PCR for detection of hTERT and miR-146a rs2910164 genotypes in our lab. Finally, data analysis was performed using the 7 version of the Epi Info(TM) 2012 software and test chi-square(x2) for trend. Cervix lesions were collected from 42 patients with Squamous metaplasia, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, and cervical carcinoma. Successful DNA extraction was assessed by PCR amplification of b-actin gene (99bp). According to the results, hTERT ( rs 2736098) GG genotype and miR-146a rs2910164 CC genotype was significantly associated with increased risk of cervical cancer in the study population. In this study, we detected 13 HPV 18 from 42 cervical cancer. The connection between several SNP polymorphism and human virus papilloma in rare researches were seen. The reason of these differences in researches' findings can result in different kinds of races and geographic situations and also differences in life grooves in every region. The present study provided preliminary evidence that a p53 GG genotype and miR-146a rs2910164 CC genotype may effect cervical cancer risk in the study population, interacting synergistically with HPV 18 genotype. Our results demonstrate that the testing of hTERT rs 2736098 genotypes and miR-146a rs2910164 genotypes in combination with HPV18 can serve as major risk factors in the early identification of cervical cancers. Furthermore, the results indicate the possibility of primary prevention of cervical cancer by vaccination against HPV18 in Iran.

Keywords: polymorphism of hTERT gene, miR-146a rs2910164 polymorphism, cervical cancer, virus

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Authors: Upal Barua

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Crash risk at intersections is a critical safety issue. This paper examines the effectiveness of removing an existing off-set at an intersection by realignment, in reducing crashes. Empirical Bayes method was applied to conduct a before-and-after study to assess the effect of this safety improvement. The Transportation Safety Improvement Program in Austin Transportation Department completed several safety improvement projects at high crash intersections with a view to reducing crashes. One of the common safety improvement techniques applied was the realignment of intersection approaches removing an existing off-set. This paper illustrates how this safety improvement technique is applied at a high crash intersection from inception to completion. This paper also highlights the significant crash reductions achieved from this safety improvement technique applying Empirical Bayes method in a before-and-after study. The result showed that realignment of intersection approaches removing an existing off-set can reduce crashes by 53%. This paper also features the state of the art techniques applied in planning, engineering, designing and construction of this safety improvement, key factors driving the success, and lessons learned in the process.

Keywords: crash risk, intersection, off-set, safety improvement technique, before-and-after study, empirical Bayes method

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Authors: Lejla Sunagic

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The aim of the manuscript is to further the understanding of risky decision-making in the context of forced and irregular migration. The empirical evidence is collected through interviews with Syrian refugees who arrived in Europe via irregular pathways. Analytically, it has been approached through the juxtaposition between risk perception and the notion of desire. As different frameworks have been developed to address differences in risk perception, the common thread was the understanding that individual risk-taking has been addressed in terms of benefits outweighing risks. However, this framework cannot explain a big risk an individual takes because of an underprivileged position and due to a lack of positive alternatives, termed as risk-taking from vulnerability. The accounts of the field members of this study that crossed the sea in rubber boats to arrive in Europe make an empirical fit to such a postulate by reporting that the risk they have taken was not the choice but the only coping strategy. However, the vulnerability argument falls short of explaining why the interviewees, thinking retrospectively, find the risky journey they have taken to be worth it, while they would strongly advise others to restrain from taking such a huge risk. This inconsistency has been addressed by adding the notion of desire to migrate to the elements of risk perception. Desire, as a subjective experience, was what made the risk appear smaller in cost-benefit analysis at the time of decision-making of those who have realized migration. However, when they reflect on others in the context of potential migration via the same pathway, the interviewees addressed the others’ lack of capacity to avoid the same obstacles that they themselves were able to circumvent while omitting to reflect on others’ desire to migrate. Thus, in the risk-benefit analysis performed for others, the risk remains unblurred and tips over the benefits, given the inability to take into account the desire of others. If desire, as the transformative potential of migration, is taken out of the cost-benefit analysis of irregular migration, refugees might not have taken the risky journey. By casting the theoretical argument in the language of configuration, the study is filling in the gap of knowledge on the combination of migration drivers and the way they interact and produce migration outcomes.

Keywords: refugees, risk perception, desire, irregular migration

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Authors: Jongsung Kim, Daegun Han, Myungjin Lee, Soojun Kim, Hung Soo Kim

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Recently, the frequency and magnitude of natural disasters are gradually increasing due to climate change. Especially in Korea, large-scale damage caused by heavy rainfall frequently occurs due to rapid urbanization. Therefore, this study proposed a Heavy rain Damage Risk Index (HDRI) using PSR (Pressure – State - Response) structure for heavy rain risk assessment. We constructed pressure index, state index, and response index for the risk assessment of each local government in Gyeonggi-do province, and the evaluation indices were determined by principal component analysis. The indices were standardized using the Z-score method then HDRIs were obtained for 31 local governments in the province. The HDRI is categorized into three classes, say, the safest class is 1st class. As the results, the local governments of the 1st class were 15, 2nd class 7, and 3rd class 9. From the study, we were able to identify the risk class due to the heavy rainfall for each local government. It will be useful to develop the heavy rainfall prediction function by risk class, and this was performed in this issue. Also, this risk class could be used for the decision making for efficient disaster management. Acknowledgements: This research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2017R1A2B3005695).

Keywords: natural disaster, heavy rain risk assessment, HDRI, PSR

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Authors: Shin-Hyung Cho, Dong-Kyu Kim, Seung-Young Kho

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Truck-involved crashes have higher crash severity than non-truck-involved crashes. There have been many studies about the frequency of crashes and the development of severity models, but those studies only analyzed the relationship between observed variables. To identify why more people are injured or killed when trucks are involved in the crash, we must examine to quantify the complex causal relationship between severity of the crash and risk factors by adopting the latent factors of crashes. The aim of this study was to develop a structural equation or model based on truck-involved and non-truck-involved crashes, including five latent variables, i.e. a crash factor, environmental factor, road factor, driver’s factor, and severity factor. To clarify the unique characteristics of truck-involved crashes compared to non-truck-involved crashes, a confirmatory analysis method was used. To develop the model, we extracted crash data from 10,083 crashes on Korean freeways from 2008 through 2014. The results showed that the most significant variable affecting the severity of a crash is the crash factor, which can be expressed by the location, cause, and type of the crash. For non-truck-involved crashes, the crash and environment factors increase severity of the crash; conversely, the road and driver factors tend to reduce severity of the crash. For truck-involved crashes, the driver factor has a significant effect on severity of the crash although its effect is slightly less than the crash factor. The multiple group analysis employed to analyze the differences between the heterogeneous groups of drivers.

Keywords: crash severity, structural structural equation modeling (SEM), truck-involved crashes, multiple group analysis, crash on freeway

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Authors: Samir Srairi

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This paper investigates the impact of the internal corporate governance on bank performance by constructing a corporate governance index (CGI) for 27 Islamic banks operating in five Arab Gulf countries. Using content analysis on the banks’ annual reports for 3 years (2011-2013), the index construction uses information on six important corporate governance mechanisms, namely board structure, risk management, transparency and disclosure, audit committee, Sharia supervisory board and investment account holders. The results demonstrate that Islamic banks adhere to 54% of the attributes addressed in the CGI. The most frequently reported and disclosed elements are Sharia supervisory board followed by board structure and risk management. The findings related to countries revealed that only two countries, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, possess a higher level of CGI. Our regression results provide evidence that Islamic banks with higher levels of corporate governance report high operating performance measured by return on assets and net interest margin. Finally, as of the effect of internal and external factors, we identified four variables that were associated with bank performance, namely size, equity, risk and concentration.

Keywords: governance mechanisms, corporate governance index, bank performance, Islamic banks, GCC countries

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Authors: Narumon Piaseu

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This survey research was aimed to describe and compare consumption behavior of health risk food among students in Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. Sample included 400 undergraduate students enrolled in the first semester of 2008 academic year. Data were collected by using self reported questionnaire developed by the researcher. Data were then analyzed by descriptive statistics including frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation, and inferential statistics including independent t-test, and Oneway ANOVA. Results revealed that most of the sample were women (67%), enrolled in social related programs (74%). Approximately half of them (45.5%) stayed in dormitory. The mean of monthly income was 5,164 Baht and daily food expenditure was 114.55 Baht. Majority of them (83%) had ready-to-eat food. A major factor influencing their food selection was their parents (61%). A main reason for their food selection was food that looks good (70.75%). Almost half of them (46.25%) had heavy exercise less than 3 times per week. Regarding knowledge on health risk food, 43.5% of the sample had good knowledge. The followings were moderate (41%) and poor (41%). Most of the sample (60.75%) had consumption behavior at low risk. The following was at moderate risk (37.25%). Only 2% were at high risk. Among the sample, consumption behavior of health risk food were significantly different in years of study (F = 3.168, p = .024), daily food expenditure (F = 8.950, p <.001), and knowledge on health risk food (F = 37.856, p <.001), while no significant difference in consumption behavior of health risk food was found in those with a difference in gender, program of study, living place, and monthly income. Results indicate the importance of providing knowledge regarding health risk food for students and their parents in order to promote appropriate food consumption behavior among the students.

Keywords: food consumption, risky behavior, Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University, health risk

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Authors: Mojtaba Rezaei, Elham Heydari

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This paper highlights the empirical results of analyzing the correlation between accounting information and systematic risk. This association is analyzed among financial ratios and systematic risk by considering the financial statement of 39 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) for five years (2014-2018). Financial ratios have been categorized into four groups and to describe the special features, as representative of accounting information we selected: Return on Asset (ROA), Debt Ratio (Total Debt to Total Asset), Current Ratio (current assets to current debt), Asset Turnover (Net sales to Total assets), and Total Assets. The hypotheses were tested through simple and multiple linear regression and T-student test. The findings illustrate that there is no significant relationship between accounting information and market risk. This indicates that in the selected sample, historical accounting information does not fully reflect the price of stocks.

Keywords: accounting information, market risk, systematic risk, stock return, efficient market hypothesis, EMH, Tehran stock exchange, TSE

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Authors: Merih Welay Welesilassie

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Understanding educators' readiness to incorporate AI tools into their teaching methods requires comprehensively examining the influencing factors. This understanding is crucial, given the potential of these technologies to personalise learning experiences, improve instructional effectiveness, and foster innovative pedagogical approaches. This study evaluated factors affecting teachers' adoption of AI tools in their English language instruction by extending the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) to encompass digital readiness support, perceived risk, and trust. A cross-sectional quantitative survey was conducted with 128 English language teachers, supplemented by qualitative data collection from 15 English teachers. The structural mode analysis indicated that implementing AI tools in Ethiopian higher education was notably influenced by digital readiness support, perceived ease of use, perceived usefulness, perceived risk, and trust. Digital readiness support positively impacted perceived ease of use, usefulness, and trust while reducing safety and privacy risks. Perceived ease of use positively correlated with perceived usefulness but negatively influenced trust. Furthermore, perceived usefulness strengthened trust in AI tools, while perceived safety and privacy risks significantly undermined trust. Trust was crucial in increasing educators' willingness to adopt AI technologies. The qualitative analysis revealed that the teachers exhibited strong content and pedagogical knowledge but needed more technology-related knowledge. Moreover, It was found that the teachers did not utilise digital tools to teach English. The study identified several obstacles to incorporating digital tools into English lessons, such as insufficient digital infrastructure, a shortage of educational resources, inadequate professional development opportunities, and challenging policies and governance. The findings provide valuable guidance for educators, inform policymakers about creating supportive digital environments, and offer a foundation for further investigation into technology adoption in educational settings in Ethiopia and similar contexts.

Keywords: digital readiness support, AI acceptance, risk, trust

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Authors: Zineb Emrane

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This abstract addresses the issue of radicalization of young people in a context with background of radicalization, in North of Morocco, 5 terrorist of Madrid's Attacts on 11th March, were coming from this context. It were developed a study pilot that describing young people perception about the main causes that lead and motivate for radicalization. Whenever we talk about this topic, we obtain information from studies and investigations by specialists in field, but we don’t give voice to the protagonists who in many cases are victims, specifically, young people at social risk because of social factors. Extremist radicalization is an expanding phenomenon, that affect young people, in north of Morocco. They live in a context with radical background and at risk of social exclusion, their social, economic and familiar needs make them vulnerable. The extremist groups take advantage of this vulnerability to involve them in a process of radicalization, offering them an alternative environment where they can found all they are looking for. This study pilot approaches the main causes that lead and motivates young people to become radicals, analyzing their context with emphasis on influencing factors, and bearing in mind the analysis of young people about how the radical background affect them and their opinion this phenomenon. The pilot study was carried out through the following actions: - Group dynamics with young people to analyze the process of violent radicalization of young people. -A participatory workshop with members of organizations that work directly with young people at risk of radicalization. -Interviews with institutional managers -Participant observation. The implementation of actions has led to the conclusion that young people define violent radicalization as a sequential process, depending on the stage, it can be deconstructed. Young people recognize that they stop feeling belonging to their family, school and neighborhood when they see behavior contrary to what they consider good and evil. The emotional rupture and the search for references outside their circle, push them to sympathize with groups that have an extremist ideology and that offer them what they need. The radicalization is a process with different stages, the main causes and the factors which lead young people to use extremist violence are related their low level of belonging feeling to their context, and lack of critical thinking about important issues. The young people are in a vulnerable stage, searching their identity, a space in which they can be accepted, and when they don't find it they are easily manipulated and susceptible to being attracted by extremist groups.

Keywords: exclusion, radicalization, vulnerability, youth

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Authors: Mathias Linden, André Schneider, Harald F. O. von Korflesch

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The risk of train accidents is an ongoing concern for railway organizations, governments, insurance companies and other depended sectors. Safety technologies are installed to reduce and to prevent potential damages of train accidents. Since the budgetary for the safety of railway organizations is limited, it is necessary not only to achieve a high availability and high safety standard but also to be cost effective. Therefore, an economic assessment of safety technologies is fundamental to create an accurate risk analysis. In order to conduct an economical assessment of a railway safety technology and a quantification of the costs of the accident causes, the Global Railway Accident Database & Evaluation (GRADE) has been developed. The aim of this paper is to describe the structure of this accident database and to show how it can be used for risk analyses. A number of risk analysis methods, such as the probabilistic safety assessment method (PSA), was used to demonstrate this accident database’s different possibilities of risk analysis. In conclusion, it can be noted that these analyses would not be as accurate without GRADE. The information gathered in the accident database was not available in this way before. Our findings are relevant for railway operators, safety technology suppliers, assurances, governments and other concerned railway organizations.

Keywords: accident causes, accident costs, accident database, global railway accident database & evaluation, GRADE, probabilistic safety assessment, PSA, railway accidents, risk analysis

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Authors: Jihene Bettaieb, Ghassen kharroubi, Rym mallekh, Ines Cherif, Taoufik Atawa, Kaouther Harrabech

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Brucellosis is a major worldwide zoonosis. It is a reportable condition in Tunisia where the disease remains endemic, especially in rural areas. The aim of this study was to describe the epidemiological, clinical, and bacteriological profile of human brucellosis cases notified in the district of Tunis. It was a retrospective descriptive study of cases reported in the district of Tunis through the national surveillance system between the 1st January and 31th December 2017. During the study period, 133 brucellosis confirmed cases were notified. The mean age was 37.5 ± 18.0 years, and 54.9% of cases were males. More than four-fifths (82.7%) of cases were reported in spring and summer with a peak in the month of May (36 cases). Fever and sweats were the most common symptoms; they occurred in 95% and 72% of cases, respectively. Osteoarticular complications occurred in 10 cases, meningitis in one case and endocarditis in one other case. Wright agglutination test and Rose Bengale test were positive in 100% and 91% of cases, respectively. While blood culture was positive in 9 cases and PCR in 2 cases. Brucella melitensis was the only identified specie (9 cases). Almost all cases (99.2%) reported the habit of consuming raw dairy products. Only 5 cases had a suspect contact with animals; among them, 3 persons were livestock breeders. The transmission was essentially due to raw dairy product consumption. It is important to enhance preventive measures to control animal Brucellosis and to educate the population regarding the risk factors of the disease.

Keywords: brucellosis, risk factors, surveillance system, Tunisia

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: James Kinyua Gitonga, Toshio Fujimi

Abstract:

Vulnerability assessment and analysis is essential to solving the degree of damage and loss as a result of natural disasters. Urban flooding causes a major economic loss and casualties, at Mathare residential area in Nairobi, Kenya. High population caused by rural-urban migration, Unemployment, and unplanned urban development are among factors that increase flood vulnerability in Mathare area. This study aims to analyse flood risk physical vulnerabilities in Mathare based on scientific data, research data that includes the Rainfall data, River Mathare discharge rate data, Water runoff data, field survey data and questionnaire survey through sampling of the study area have been used to develop the risk curves. Three structural types of building were identified in the study area, vulnerability and risk curves were made for these three structural types by plotting the relationship between flood depth and damage for each structural type. The results indicate that the structural type with mud wall and mud floor is the most vulnerable building to flooding while the structural type with stone walls and concrete floor is least vulnerable. The vulnerability of building contents is mainly determined by the number of floors, where households with two floors are least vulnerable, and households with a one floor are most vulnerable. Therefore more than 80% of the residential buildings including the property in the building are highly vulnerable to floods consequently exposed to high risk. When estimating the potential casualties/injuries we discovered that the structural types of houses were major determinants where the mud/adobe structural type had casualties of 83.7% while the Masonry structural type had casualties of 10.71% of the people living in these houses. This research concludes that flood awareness, warnings and observing the building codes will enable reduce damage to the structural types of building, deaths and reduce damage to the building contents.

Keywords: flood loss, Mathare Nairobi, risk curve analysis, vulnerability

Procedia PDF Downloads 237

Authors: Chatelier Charlene, Oyegoke Adekunle, Ajayi Saheed, Jeffries Andrew

Abstract:

This study seeks to understand Schedule Risk Assessments as a priori for better performance whilst exploring the strategies employed to deliver complex projects like the New Polar research ship. This high-profile vessel was offered to Natural Environment Research Council and British Antarctic Survey (BAS) by Cammell Laird Shipbuilders. The Research Ship was designed to support science in extreme environments, with the expectancy to provide a wide range of specialist scientific facilities, instruments, and laboratories to conduct research over multiple disciplines. Aim: The focus is to understand the allocation and management of schedule risk on such a Major Project. Hypothesising that "effective management of schedule risk management" could be the most critical factor in determining whether the intended benefits mentioned are delivered within time and cost constraints. Objective 1: Firstly, the study seeks to understand the allocation and management of schedule risk in Major Projects. Objective 2: Secondly, it explores "effective management of schedule risk management" as the most critical factor determining the delivery of intended benefits. Methodology: This study takes a retrospective review of schedule risk management and how it influences project performance using a case study approach for the RRS (Royal Research Ship) Sir David Attenborough. Research Contribution: The outcomes of this study will contribute to a better understanding of project performance whilst building on its under-researched relationship to schedule risk management for complex projects. The outcomes of this paper will guide further research on project performance and enable the understanding of how risk-based estimates over time impact the overall risk management of the project.

Keywords: complexity, major projects, performance management, schedule risk management, uncertainty

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Authors: Jean-michel Sahut, Lubica Hikkerova, Wissal Ben Arfi

Abstract:

The Internet of Things (IoT) emerged over the last few decades in many fields. Healthcare can significantly benefit from IoT. This study aims to examine factors influencing the adoption of IoT in eHealth. To do so, an innovative framework has been developed which applies both the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and the United Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) model and builds on them by analyzing trust and perceived-risk dimensions to predict intention to use IoT in eHealth. In terms of methodology, a Partial Least Approach Structural Equation Modelling was carried out on a sample of 267 French users. The findings of this research support the significant positive effect of constructs set out in the TAM (perceived ease of use) on predicting behavioral intention by adding the effects identified for UTAUT variables. This research also demonstrates how perceived risk and trust are significant factors for models examining behavioral intentions to use IoT. Perceived risk enhanced by the trust has a significant effect on patients’ behavioral intentions. Moreover, the results highlight the key role of prescription as a moderator of IoT adoption in eHealth. Depending on whether an individual has a prescription to use connected devices or not, ease of use has a stronger impact on adoption, while trust has a negative impact on adoption for users without a prescription. In accordance with the empirical results, several practical implications can be proposed. All connected devices applied in a medical context should be divided into groups according to their functionality: whether they are essential for the patient’s health and whether they require a prescription or not. Devices used with a prescription are easily accepted because the intention to use them is moderated by the medical trust (discussed above). For users without a prescription, ease of use is a more significant factor than for users who have a prescription. This suggests that currently, connected e-Health devices and online healthcare systems have to take this factor into account to better meet the needs and expectations of end-users.

Keywords: internet of things, Healthcare, trust, consumer acceptance

Procedia PDF Downloads 143

Authors: Safia Hocine, Djamil Aïssani

Abstract:

Risk models, recently studied in the literature, are becoming increasingly complex. It is rare to find explicit analytical relations to calculate the ruin probability. Indeed, the stability issue occurs naturally in ruin theory, when parameters in risk cannot be estimated than with uncertainty. However, in most cases, there are no explicit formulas for the ruin probability. Hence, the interest to obtain explicit stability bounds for these probabilities in different risk models. In this paper, we interest to the stability bounds of the univariate classical risk model established using the regenerative processes approach. By adopting an algorithmic approach, we implement this approximation and determine numerically the bounds of ruin probability in the case of large claims (heavy-tailed distribution).

Keywords: heavy-tailed distribution, large claims, regenerative process, risk model, ruin probability, stability

Procedia PDF Downloads 362

Authors: Sherly M. A., Subhankar Karmakar, Terence Chan, Christian Rau

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Floods are one of the most frequent natural disasters, causing widespread devastation, economic damage and threat to human lives. Hydrologic impacts of climate change and intensification of urbanization are two root causes of increased flood occurrences, and recent research trends are oriented towards understanding these aspects. Due to rapid urbanization, population of cities across the world has increased exponentially leading to improperly planned developments. Climate change due to natural and anthropogenic activities on our environment has resulted in spatiotemporal changes in rainfall patterns. The combined effect of both aggravates the vulnerability of urban populations to floods. In this context, an efficient and effective flood risk management with its core component as flood risk mapping is essential in prevention and mitigation of flood disasters. Urban flood risk mapping involves zoning of an urban region based on its flood risk, which depicts the spatiotemporal pattern of frequency and severity of hazards, exposure to hazards, and degree of vulnerability of the population in terms of socio-economic, environmental and infrastructural aspects. Although vulnerability is a key component of risk, its assessment and mapping is often less advanced than hazard mapping and quantification. A synergic effort from technical experts and social scientists is vital for the effectiveness of flood risk management programs. Despite an increasing volume of quality research conducted on urban flood risk, a comprehensive multidisciplinary approach towards flood risk mapping still remains neglected due to which many of the input parameters and definitions of flood risk concepts are imprecise. Thus, the objectives of this review are to introduce and precisely define the relevant input parameters, concepts and terms in urban flood risk mapping, along with its methodology, current status and limitations. The review also aims at providing thought-provoking insights to potential future researchers and flood management professionals.

Keywords: flood risk, flood hazard, flood vulnerability, flood modeling, urban flooding, urban flood risk mapping

Procedia PDF Downloads 589

Authors: Mohamed Osama Hassaan

Abstract:

Recent earthquakes have demonstrated the vulnerability of older reinforced concrete buildings to fail under imposed seismic loads. Accordingly, the need to strengthen existing reinforced concrete structures, mainly columns, to resist high seismic loads has increased. Conventional strengthening techniques such as using steel plates, steel angles and concrete overlay are used to achieve the required increase in strength or ductility. However, techniques using advanced composite materials are established. The column's splice zone is the most critical zone that failed under seismic loads. There are three types of splice zone failure that can be observed under seismic action, namely, Failure of the flexural plastic hinge region, shear failure and failure due to short lap splice. A lapped splice transfers the force from one bar to another through the concrete surrounding both bars. At any point along the splice, force is transferred from one bar by a bond to the surrounding concrete and also by a bond to the other bar of the pair forming the splice. The integrity of the lap splice depends on the development of adequate bond length. The R.C. columns built in seismic regions are expected to undergo a large number of inelastic deformation cycles while maintaining the overall strength and stability of the structure. This can be ensured by proper confinement of the concrete core. The last type of failure is focused in this research. There are insufficient studies that address the problem of strengthening existing reinforced concrete columns at splice zone through confinement with “advanced composite materials". Accordingly, more investigation regarding the seismic behavior of strengthened reinforced concrete columns using the new generation of composite materials such as (Carbon fiber polymer), (Glass fiber polymer), (Armiad fiber polymer).

Keywords: strengthening, columns, advanced composite materials, earthquakes

Procedia PDF Downloads 76