Search results for: risk based inspection

Authors: Ebrahim Ghanbari, Mohammad Reza Nematollahi

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Integrating deterministic and probabilistic safety assessment (IDPSA) is one of the most commonly used issues in the field of safety analysis of power plant accident. It has also been recognized today that the role of human error in creating these accidents is not less than systemic errors, so the human interference and system errors in fault and event sequences are necessary. The integration of these analytical topics will be reflected in the frequency of core damage and also the study of the use of water resources in an accident such as the loss of all electrical power of the plant. In this regard, the SBO accident was simulated for the pressurized water reactor in the deterministic analysis issue, and by analyzing the operator's behavior in controlling the accident, the results of the combination of deterministic and probabilistic assessment were identified. The results showed that the best performance of the plant operator would reduce the risk of an accident by 10%, as well as a decrease of 6.82 liters/second of the water sources of the plant.

Keywords: IDPSA, human error, SBO, risk

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Authors: Dae Kyung Choi, Won Man Park, Kyungsoo Kim, Yoon Hyuk Kim

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The interspinous process devices have been recently used due to its advantages such as minimal invasiveness and less subsidence of the implant to the osteoporotic bone. In this paper, we have analyzed the influences of ligature tightening of several interspinous process devices using finite element analysis. Four types of interspinous process implants were inserted to the L3-4 spinal motion segment based on their surgical protocols. Inferior plane of L4 vertebra was fixed and 7.5 Nm of extension moment were applied on superior plane of L3 vertebra with 400N of compressive load along follower load direction and pretension of the ligature. The stability of the spinal unit was high enough than that of intact model. The higher value of pretension in the ligature led the decrease of dynamic stabilization effect in cases of the WallisTM, DiamTM, Viking, and Spear®. The results of present study could be used to evaluate surgical option and validate the biomechanical characteristics of the spinal implants.

Keywords: interspinous process device, bone fracture risk, lumbar spine, finite element analysis

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Authors: Semachew M. Kassa, Africa M Geremew, Tezera F. Azmatch, Nandyala Darga Kumar

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Frequency ratio (FR) and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) methods are developed based on past landslide failure points to identify the landslide susceptibility mapping because landslides can seriously harm both the environment and society. However, it is still difficult to select the most efficient method and correctly identify the main driving factors for particular regions. In this study, we used fourteen landslide conditioning factors (LCFs) and five soft computing algorithms, including Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Logistic Regression (LR), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Naïve Bayes (NB), to predict the landslide susceptibility at 12.5 m spatial scale. The performance of the RF (F1-score: 0.88, AUC: 0.94), ANN (F1-score: 0.85, AUC: 0.92), and SVM (F1-score: 0.82, AUC: 0.86) methods was significantly better than the LR (F1-score: 0.75, AUC: 0.76) and NB (F1-score: 0.73, AUC: 0.75) method, according to the classification results based on inventory landslide points. The findings also showed that around 35% of the study region was made up of places with high and very high landslide risk (susceptibility greater than 0.5). The very high-risk locations were primarily found in the western and southeastern regions, and all five models showed good agreement and similar geographic distribution patterns in landslide susceptibility. The towns with the highest landslide risk include Amhara Saint Town's western part, the Northern part, and St. Gebreal Church villages, with mean susceptibility values greater than 0.5. However, rainfall, distance to road, and slope were typically among the top leading factors for most villages. The primary contributing factors to landslide vulnerability were slightly varied for the five models. Decision-makers and policy planners can use the information from our study to make informed decisions and establish policies. It also suggests that various places should take different safeguards to reduce or prevent serious damage from landslide events.

Keywords: artificial neural network, logistic regression, landslide susceptibility, naïve Bayes, random forest, support vector machine

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Authors: Rona Lee Suelo-Calanao, Mahmoud Loubani

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Objective: Sternal wound infection (SWI) following cardiac operation has a significant impact on patient morbidity and mortality. It also contributes to longer hospital stays and increased treatment costs. SWI management is mainly focused on treatment rather than prevention. This study looks at the effect of closed incision negative pressure therapy (ciNPT) dressing to help reduce the incidence of superficial SWI in high-risk patients after cardiac surgery. The ciNPT dressing was evaluated at 3 cardiac hospitals in the United Kingdom". Methods: All patients who had cardiac surgery from 2013 to 2021 were included in the study. The patients were classed as high risk if they have two or more of the recognised risk factors: obesity, age above 80 years old, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Patients receiving standard dressing (SD) and patients using ciNPT were propensity matched, and the Fisher’s exact test (two-tailed) and unpaired T-test were used to analyse categorical and continuous data, respectively. Results: There were 766 matched cases in each group. Total SWI incidences are lower in the ciNPT group compared to the SD group (43 (5.6%) vs 119 (15.5%), P=0.0001). There are fewer deep sternal wound infections (14(1.8%) vs. 31(4.04%), p=0.0149) and fewer superficial infections (29(3.7%) vs. 88 (11.4%), p=0.0001) in the ciNPT group compared to the SD group. However, the ciNPT group showed a longer average length of stay (11.23 ± 13 days versus 9.66 ± 10 days; p=0.0083) and higher mean logistic EuroSCORE (11.143 ± 13 versus 8.094 ± 11; p=0.0001). Conclusion: Utilization of ciNPT as an approach to help reduce the incidence of superficial and deep SWI may be effective in high-risk patients requiring cardiac surgery.

Keywords: closed incision negative pressure therapy, surgical wound infection, cardiac surgery complication, high risk cardiac patients

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Authors: Xiaobin Liang, Wei Liang, Laibin Zhang, Xiaoyan Guo

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Pipelines pass through coal mined gobs inevitably in the mining area, the stability of which has great influence on the safety of pipelines. After extensive literature study and field research, it was found that there are a few risk assessment methods for coal mined gob pipelines, and there is a lack of data on the gob sites. Therefore, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is widely used based on expert opinions. However, the subjective opinions or lack of experience of individual experts may lead to inaccurate evaluation results. Hence the accuracy of the results needs to be further improved. This paper presents a comprehensive approach to achieve this purpose by combining bow-tie model and cloud inference. The specific evaluation process is as follows: First, a bow-tie model composed of a fault tree and an event tree is established to graphically illustrate the probability and consequence indicators of pipeline failure. Second, the interval estimation method can be scored in the form of intervals to improve the accuracy of the results, and the censored mean algorithm is used to remove the maximum and minimum values of the score to improve the stability of the results. The golden section method is used to determine the weight of the indicators and reduce the subjectivity of index weights. Third, the failure probability and failure consequence scores of the pipeline are converted into three numerical features by using cloud inference. The cloud inference can better describe the ambiguity and volatility of the results which can better describe the volatility of the risk level. Finally, the cloud drop graphs of failure probability and failure consequences can be expressed, which intuitively and accurately illustrate the ambiguity and randomness of the results. A case study of a coal mine gob pipeline carrying natural gas has been investigated to validate the utility of the proposed method. The evaluation results of this case show that the probability of failure of the pipeline is very low, the consequences of failure are more serious, which is consistent with the reality.

Keywords: bow-tie model, natural gas pipeline, coal mine gob, cloud inference

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Authors: Madeline V. Henry

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Sex work is a contested subject in academia. Many authors now argue that the practice should be recognized as a legitimate and rationally chosen form of labor, and that decriminalization is necessary to ensure the safety of sex workers and reduce their stigmatization. However, a prevailing argument remains that the work is inherently violent and oppressive and that all sex workers are directly or indirectly coerced into participating in the industry. This argument has been complicated by the recent proliferation of computer-mediated technologies that allow people to conduct sex work without the need to be physically co-present with customers or pimps. One example of this is the practice of ‘camming’, wherein ‘webcam models’ stream themselves stripping and/or performing autoerotic stimulation in an online chat-room for payment. In this presentation, interviews with eight ‘camgirls’ (aged 22-34) will be discussed. Their talk has been analyzed using Foucauldian discourse analysis, focusing on common discursive threads in relation to the work and their subjectivities. It was found that the participants demonstrated appreciation for the lack of physical danger they were in, but emphasized the unique and significant dangers of online-based sex work (their images and videos being recorded and shared without their consent, for example). Participants also argued that their largest concerns were based around stigma, which they claimed remained prevalent despite the decriminalized legal model in Aotearoa/New Zealand (which has been in place for over 14 years). Overall, this project seeks to challenge commonplace academic approaches to sex work, adding further research to support sex workers’ rights and highlighting new issues to consider in a digital environment.

Keywords: camming, sex work, stigma, risk

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Authors: Jacquelene Swanepoel, J. C. Visagie, H. M. Linde

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Purpose: The aim of this article is to investigate the psychosocial risk environment influencing employee behaviour, and subsequently the trust relationship between employer and employee. Design/methodology/approach: The unique nature and commonness of negative acts, such as unsafe behaviour, human errors, poor performance and negligence, also referred to as unsafe practice, are explored. A literature review is formulated to investigate the nature of negative acts or unsafe behaviour. The findings of this study are used to draw comparisons between unsafe behaviour/misconduct and accidents in the workplace and finally conclude how it should be addressed from a labour relations point of view. Findings: The results indicate comparisons between unsafe practice/misconduct and occupational injuries and accidents, as a result of system flaws, human error or psychosocial risk.

Keywords: occupational risks, unsafe practice, misconduct, organisational safety culture, ergonomics, management commitment and leadership, labour relations

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Authors: Ali Mortazavi

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The main objective of this research project is to delve into a multitude of geomechanical risks associated with various mining methods employed within the underground mining industry. Controlling geotechnical design parameters and operational factors affecting the selection of suitable mining techniques for a given underground mining condition will be considered from a risk assessment point of view. Important geomechanical challenges will be investigated as appropriate and relevant to the commonly used underground mining methods. Given the complicated nature of rock mass in-situ and complicated boundary conditions and operational complexities associated with various underground mining methods, the selection of a safe and economic mining operation is of paramount significance. Rock failure at varying scales within the underground mining openings is always a threat to mining operations and causes human and capital losses worldwide. Geotechnical design is a major design component of all underground mines and basically dominates the safety of an underground mine. With regard to uncertainties that exist in rock characterization prior to mine development, there are always risks associated with inappropriate design as a function of mining conditions and the selected mining method. Uncertainty often results from the inherent variability of rock masse, which in turn is a function of both geological materials and rock mass in-situ conditions. The focus of this research is on developing a methodology which enables a geomechanical risk assessment of given underground mining conditions. The outcome of this research is a geotechnical risk analysis algorithm, which can be used as an aid in selecting the appropriate mining method as a function of mine design parameters (e.g., rock in-situ properties, design method, governing boundary conditions such as in-situ stress and groundwater, etc.).

Keywords: geomechanical risk assessment, rock mechanics, underground mining, rock engineering

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Authors: Bakr Ali Al-Gamrh, Ku Nor Izah B. Ku Ismail

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We investigate the relationship between corporate governance, leverage, risk, and firm performance. We use a firm level panel that spans the period 2008 to 2012 of all listed firms on Abu Dhabi Stock Exchange and Dubai Financial Market. After constructing an index of corporate governance strength, we find a negative effect of corporate governance on firm performance. We, however, discover that corporate governance strength indirectly improves the negative influence of leverage on firm performance in normal times. On the contrary, the results completely reversed when there is a black swan event. Corporate governance strength plays a significantly negative role in moderating the relationship between leverage and firm performance during the financial crisis. We also reveal that corporate governance strength increases firms’ risk and deteriorates performance during crisis. Results provide evidence that corporate governance indirectly plays a completely different role in different time periods.

Keywords: corporate governance, firm performance, risk, leverage, the UAE

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Authors: Sélima Baccar, Ephraim Clark

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This paper can be considered as a new perspective to analyse credit spreads. A comprehensive empirical analysis of conditional variance of credit spreads indices is performed using various GARCH models. Based on a comparison between traditional and asymmetric GARCH models with alternative functional forms of the conditional density, we intend to identify what macroeconomic and financial factors have driven daily changes in the US Dollar credit spreads in the period from January 2011 through January 2013. The results provide a strong interdependence between credit spreads and the explanatory factors related to the conditions of interest rates, the state of the stock market, the bond market liquidity and the exchange risk. The empirical findings support the use of asymmetric GARCH models. The AGARCH and GJR models outperform the traditional GARCH in credit spreads modelling. We show, also, that the leptokurtic Student-t assumption is better than the Gaussian distribution and improves the quality of the estimates, whatever the rating or maturity.

Keywords: corporate bonds, default risk, credit spreads, asymmetric garch models, student-t distribution

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Authors: Ibrahim Mohammed

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Background: Diabetes mellitus is a chronic disease that can cause devastating secondary complications, reducing the quality and length of life as well as increasing medical costs for the patient and society. The guidelines recommend both clinical and preventive strategies for diabetes management and are regularly updated. The aim of the study is to assess the level of adherence of physicians to American Diabetes Association Guidelines. Method: Observational multicenter retrospective study will be conducted among different hospitals in the central region. Patient data will be collected from the records of the last three years (2017- 2020). Records will be selected randomly after a complete randomized design. The study focuses on the management of type 2 according to ADA not changed in the last three updating; those standards; all patients should be taking Metformin 1500 to 2000 mg/day as recommended dose and should be received a high dose of statin if the high risk to ASCVD or moderate statin if not at risk, patients with hypertension and diabetes should taking ACE or ARBS. Result: The study aimed to evaluate the commitment of physicians in the central region to the ADA. Out of the 153 selected patients, only 17 % were able to control their diabetes with an average A1c below 7. ADA stated that to reach the minimum benefit of using Metformin, the daily dose should be between 1500 and 2000 mg. Results showed that 110 patients were on Metformin, where 68% of them were on the recommended dose. ADA recommended the intake of high statin for diabetic patients with ASCVD risk, while diabetic patients without ASCVD risk should be on a moderate statin. Results showed that 61.5% of patients with ASCVD risk were at high statin while only 36% of patients without ASCVD risk were at moderate statin. Results showed that 89 patients have hypertension, and 80% of them are getting ACE/ARBs as recommended by the ADA. Recommendation: It is necessary to implement periodic training courses for some physicians to enhance and update their knowledge.

Keywords: American Diabetic Association, diabetes mellitus, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, ACE inhibitors

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Authors: Wai Sang Wu, Florence Pik Sze Mok

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Introduction: Ageing population is one of the hot topics nowadays in the world and this phenomenon is believed to exacerbate continuously in the future. According to the latest information from World Health Organization (WHO) in 2016, the proportion of people aged more than 60 years is projected to be doubled from 12% in 2015 to 22% in 2050 of the world's population. Similarly, according to figures released by the Census and Statistic Department of Hong Kong in 2015, the contribution of elderly aged more than 65 years olds is projected to increase from 15% in 2014 to 34% in 2064 in local community. On the other hand, falls in elderly is a common problem, and it can bring along many negative consequences among elders, such as reducing their mobility level as well as their quality of life. In addition, it can also increase the caring stress of their family caregivers and as well increase the reliance and burden on the medical care system of Hong Kong. Therefore, appropriate measures should be implemented in order to minimize the risk of fall among elders. The objective of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of the chair-based exercise programme in affecting the balance of the elderly in Hong Kong. Methods: Thirteen healthy subjects (males = 2; females = 11; mean age: 76.2 ± 7.8 years old) were recruited from an elderly social centre in the community to participate in a structural chair-based exercise programme for 6 weeks (1 session per week; 60-minutes per session). Subjects were being assessed on their balance ability using three commonly used clinical assessments, namely, 1) single leg stance (SLS) test, 2) functional reach test, and 3) 360-degree turn test, before and after their participation in the chair-based exercise programme. Pre and post within-subject comparison was adopted to assess the effectiveness of the programme. Results: There was significant improvement (p < 0.05) in all balance parameters of the subjects after their participation in the exercise programme. Elderly demonstrated significant improvement in SLS (p < 0.012), functional reach (p < 0.030) and 360 degree turn (p < 0.043). Conclusions: This study showed that a community chair-based exercise programme is effective in improving the balance ability of the elders. It seems to be another exercise regime that should be promoted among the elders in order to minimize their risk of falls and its negative consequence.

Keywords: balance, chair-based exercise programme, community, elderly

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Authors: R. S. Dinesh Madhavan, M. Logaraj

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Background: Recent studies have documented an increase in the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and a high rate of progression to hypertension in persons with pre hypertension. The risk factors for the growing burden of cardiovascular diseases especially hypertension, diabetes, overweight or obesity and waist hip ratio are increasing. Much study has not been done on cardiovascular risk factors associated with blood pressure (BP) among college students in Indian population. Objectives: The objective of our study was to estimate the prevalence of prehypertension among male students and to assess the association between prehypertension and risk factors for cardiovascular diseases. Material and Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among students of a university situated in the suburban area of Chennai. A total of 403 students was studied which included 200 medical and 203 engineering students. The information on selected socio-demographic variables were collected with the help of pre tested structured questionnaire. Measurements of height, weight, blood pressure and postprandial blood glucose were carried out as per standard procedure. Results: The mean age of the participants was 19.56 ± 1.67years. The mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure were 125.80±10.03 mm of Hg and 78.96 ±11.75mm of Hg. The average intake of fruits and vegetable per week were 4.34 ±3.47days and 6.55±4.39 days respectively. Use of smoke and smokeless tobacco were 27.3% and 3% respectively. About 30.3% of the students consume alcohol. Nearly 45.9 % of them did not practice regular exercise. About 29 % were overweight and 5.7% were obese, 24.8% were with waist circumference above 90 centimeters. The prevalence of pre hypertension and hypertension was 49.6% and 19.1% among male students. The prevalence of pre hypertension was higher in medical students (51.5%) compared to engineering students (47.8%). Higher risk of being pre hypertensive were noted above the age of 20 years (OR=4.32), fruit intake less than 3 days a week (OR= 1.03), smokers (OR= 1.13), alcohol intake (OR=1.56), lack of physical exercise (OR=1.90), BMI of more than 25 kg/m2 (OR=1.99). But statistically significant difference was noted between pre hypertensive and normotensive for age (p<0.0001), lack of physical exercise (p=0.004) and BMI (p=0.015). Conclusion: In conclusion nearly half of the students were pre hypertensive. Higher prevalence of smoking, alcohol intake, lack of physical exercise, overweight and increased waist circumference and postprandial blood sugar more than 140 mg/dl was noted among pre-hypertensive compared to normotensive.

Keywords: cardiovascular diseases, prehypertension, risk factors, undergraduate Students

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Authors: Y. Kamarulzaman, A. Madun, F. D. Yusop, N. Abdullah, N. K. Hoong

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In 2011, the Malaysian Government has initiated a nationwide project called 1BestariNet which will adopt the using of technology in teaching and learning, resulting in the construction of telecommunication towers inside the public schools’ premise. Using qualitative approach, this study investigated public perception of risks associated with the project, particularly the telecommunication towers. Data collection involved observation and in-depth interviews with 22 individuals consist of a segment of public that was anxious about the risks of radio frequency electromagnetic field (RFEMF) which include two employees of telecommunication companies (telcos) and five employees of Government agencies. Observation of the location of the towers at 10 public schools, a public forum, and media reports provide valuable information in our analysis. The study finds that the main concern is related to the health risks. This study also shows that it is not easy for the Government to manage public perception mainly because it involves public trust. We find that risk perception is related with public trust, as well as the perceived benefits and level of knowledge. Efficient communication and continuous engagement with the local communities help to build and maintain public trust, reduce public fear and anxiety, hence mitigating the risk perception among the public.

Keywords: risk perception, risk communication, trust, telecommunication tower, radio frequency electromagnetic field (RFEMF)

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Authors: Aschenaki Zerihun Kea, Bernt Lindtjorn, Achamyelesh Gebretsadik, Sven Gudmund Hinderaker

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Introduction: Maternal mortality studies conducted at the national level do not provide the information needed for planning and monitoring health programs at lower administrative levels. The aim of this study was to measure maternal mortality, identify risk factors and district-level variations in Sidama National Regional State, southern Ethiopia. Methods: A cross sectional population-based survey was carried out in households where women reported pregnancy and birth outcomes in the past five years. The study was conducted in the Sidama National Regional State, southern Ethiopia, from July 2019 to May 2020. Multi-stage cluster sampling technique was employed. The outcome variable of the study was maternal mortality. Complex sample logistic regression analysis was applied to assess variables independently associated with maternal mortality. Results: We registered 10602 live births (LB) and 48 maternal deaths, yielding an overall maternal mortality ratio (MMR) of 419; 95% CI: 260-577 per 100,000 LB. Aroresa district had the highest MMR with 1142 (95% CI: 693-1591) per 100,000 LB. Leading causes of death were haemorrhage 21 (41%) and eclampsia 10 (27%). Thirty (59%) mothers died during labour, or within 24 hours after delivery, 25 (47%) died at home and 17 (38%) at a health facility. Mothers who did not have formal education had a higher risk of maternal death (AOR: 4.4; 95% CI: 1.7 – 11.0). The risk of maternal death was higher in districts with a low midwife-to-population ratio (AOR: 2.9; 95% CI: 1.0-8.9). Conclusion: The high maternal mortality with district-level variations in Sidama Region highlights the importance of improving obstetric care and employing targeted interventions in areas with high mortality rates. Due attention should be given to improving access to female education. Additional midwives have to be trained and deployed to improve maternal health services and consequently save the lives of mothers.

Keywords: maternal mortality variation, maternal death, Sidama, Ethiopia

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Authors: Rory Brown, Jessica Daniels, Babatunde Oremule, William Tsang, Sadie Khwaja

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Introduction: Dentures are common and are an intervention for both physical and psychological symptoms associated with tooth loss. However, the humble denture can cause morbidity and mortality if swallowed or aspirated. Numerous case reports document complications including hollow viscus perforation, fistula formation and airway compromise. The purpose of this review was to examine the literature documenting cases of swallowed or aspirated dentures over the past ten years to investigate factors that contribute to developing complications. Methods: A Medline literature search was performed to identify cases of denture ingestion or aspiration for over ten years. Data was collected to include patient, appliance and temporal factors that may contribute to developing complications including hollow viscus perforation, fistula formation, abscess, bowel obstruction, necrosis, hemorrhage and airway obstruction. The data was analyzed using observational and inferential statistics in the form of Chi-Squared and Pearson correlation tests. Results: Eighty-five cases of ingested or aspirated dentures were identified from 77 articles published between 1/10/2009 and 31/10/2019. Fourteen articles were excluded because they did not provide sufficient information on individual cases. Complications were documented in 37.6% of patients, and 2 cases resulted in death. There was no significant difference in complication risk based on patient age, hooked appliance, level of impaction, or radiolucency. However, symptoms of greater than 1-day duration are associated with an increased risk of complication (p=0.005). Increased time from ingestion or aspiration to removal is associated with an increased risk of complications, and the p-value remains significant up to and including day 4 (p=0.017). Conclusions: With denture use predicted to rise complications from the denture, ingestion and aspiration may become more frequent. We have demonstrated that increased symptom duration significantly increases the risk of developing complications. Additionally, we established the risk of developing complications is significantly reduced if the denture is removed with four days of aspiration or ingestion. By actively intervening early when presented with a case of swallowed or aspirated dentures, we may be able to reduce the morbidity associated with this unassuming device.

Keywords: aspiration, denture, ingestion, endoscopic foreign, body removal, foreign body impaction

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Authors: Farah Amalina Mohamed Affandi, Redhwan Ahmad Al-Naggar, Seok Mui Wang, Thanikasalam Kathiresan

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Gestational choriocarcinoma is a condition in which there is an abnormal growth or a tumor inside the women’s uterus after conception. It is a type of gestational trophoblastic disease which is relatively rare and malignant. The current epidemiological data of this disease are inadequate. The purposes of this study are to examine the epidemiology of choriocarcinoma and their risk factors based on all available population-based and hospital-based data of the disease. In this study, we searched The MEDLINE and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) databases using the keywords ‘choriocarcinoma’, ‘gestational’, ‘gestational choriocarcinoma’ and ‘epidemiology’. We included only human studies published in English between 1995 and 2015 to ensure up to date evidence. Case studies, case reports, animal studies, letters to the editor, news, and review articles were excluded. Retrieved articles were screened in three phases. In the first phase, any articles that did not match the inclusion criteria based solely on titles were excluded. In the second phase, the abstracts of remaining articles were screened thoroughly; any articles that did not meet our inclusion criteria were excluded. In the final phase, full texts of the remaining articles were read and assessed to exclude articles that did not meet the inclusion criteria or any articles that fulfilled the exclusion criteria. Duplicates articles were also removed. Systematic reviews and meta-analysis were excluded. Extracted data were summarized in table and figures descriptively. The reference lists of included studies were thoroughly reviewed in search for other relevant studies. A total of ten studies met all the selection criteria. Nine were retrospective studies and one was cohort study. Total numbers of 4563 cases of choriocarcinoma were reviewed from several countries which are Korea, Japan, South Africa, USA, New Mexico, Finland, Turkey, China, Brazil and The Netherlands. Different studies included different range of age with their mean age of 28.5 to 30.0 years. All studies investigated on the disease’s incidence rate, only two studies examined on the risk factors or associations of the disease. Approximately 20% of the studies showed a reduction in the incidence of choriocarcinoma while the other 80% showed inconsistencies in rate. Associations of age, fertility age, occupations and socio-demographic with the status remains unclear. There is limited information on the epidemiological aspects of gestational choriocarcinoma. The observed results indicated there was a decrease in the incidence rate of gestational choriocarcinoma globally. These could be due to the reduction in the incidence of molar pregnancy and the efficacy of the treatment, mainly by chemotherapy.

Keywords: epidemiology, gestational choriocarcinoma, incidence, prevalence, risk factor

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Authors: Morello Sara, Pederiva Sabina, Bianchi Manila, Martucci Francesca, Marchis Daniela, Decastelli Lucia

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Vegetables represent an integral part of a healthy diet due to their valuable nutritional properties and the growth in consumer demand in recent years is particularly remarkable for a diet rich in vitamins and micronutrients. However, plant-based products are involved in several food outbreaks connected to various sources of contamination and quite often, bacteria responsible for side effects showed high resistance to antibiotics. The abuse of antibiotics can be one of the main mechanisms responsible for increasing antibiotic resistance (AR). Plants grown for food use can be contaminated directly by spraying antibiotics on crops or indirectly by treatments with antibiotics due to the use of manure, which may contain both antibiotics and genes of antibiotic resistance (ARG). Antibiotic residues could represent a potential way of human health risk due to exposure through the consumption of plant-based foods. The presence of antibiotic-resistant bacteria might pose a particular risk to consumers. The present work aims to investigate through a multidisciplinary approach the occurrence of ARG by means of a biomolecular approach (PCR) and the prevalence of antibiotic residues using a multi residues LC-MS/MS method, both in different plant-based products. During the period from July 2020 to October 2021, a total of 74 plant samples (33 lettuces and 41 tomatoes) were collected from 57 farms located throughout the Piedmont area, and18 out of 74 samples (11 lettuces and 7 tomatoes) were selected to LC-MS/MS analyses. DNA extracted (ExtractME, Blirt, Poland) from plants used on crops and isolated bacteria were analyzed with 6 sets of end-point multiplex PCR (Qiagen, Germany) to detect the presence of resistance genes of the main antibiotic families, such as tet genes (tetracyclines), bla (β-lactams) and mcr (colistin). Simultaneous detection of 43 molecules of antibiotics belonging to 10 different classes (tetracyclines, sulphonamides, quinolones, penicillins, amphenicols, macrolides, pleuromotilines, lincosamides, diaminopyrimidines) was performed using Exion LC system AB SCIEX coupled to a triple quadrupole mass spectrometer QTRAP 5500 from AB SCIEX. The PCR assays showed the presence of ARG in 57% (n=42): tetB (4.8%; n=2), tetA (9.5%; n=4), tetE (2.4%; n=1), tetL (12%; n=5), tetM (26%; n=11), blaSHV (21.5%; n=9), blaTEM (4.8%; n =2) and blaCTX-M (19%; n=8). In none of the analyzed samples was the mcr gene responsible for colistin resistance detected. Results obtained from LC-MS/MS analyses showed that none of the tested antibiotics appear to exceed the LOQ (100 ppb). Data obtained confirmed the presence of bacterial populations containing antibiotic resistance determinants such as tet gene (tetracycline) and bla genes (beta-lactams), widely used in human medicine, which can join the food chain and represent a risk for consumers, especially with raw products. The presence of traces of antibiotic residues in vegetables, in concentration below the LOQ of the LC-MS/MS method applied, cannot be excluded. In conclusion, traces of antibiotic residues could be a health risk to the consumer due to potential involvement in the spread of AR. PCR represents a useful and effective approach to characterize and monitor AR carried by bacteria from the entire food chain.

Keywords: plant-based products, ARG, PCR, antibiotic residues

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Authors: Hamid Yazdani, Raheleh Akbar

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Infrared thermography is a modern non-destructive measuring method for the examination of redeveloped and non-renovated buildings. Infrared cameras provide a means for temperature measurement in building constructions from the inside, as well as from the outside. Thus, heat bridges can be detected. It has been shown that infrared thermography is applicable for insulation inspection, identifying air leakage and heat losses sources, finding the exact position of heating tubes or for discovering the reasons why mold, moisture is growing in a particular area, and it is also used in conservation field to detect hidden characteristics, degradations of building structures. The paper gives a brief description of the theoretical background of infrared thermography.

Keywords: infrared thermography, examination of buildings, emissivity, heat losses sources

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Authors: Masoumeh Hosseini

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Obesity is known to be associated with cardiovascular diseases and metabolic syndrome. This study aimed to assess the effect of a long term aerobic training program on serum ghrelin in obese men. For this purpose, twenty four sedentary adult obese men aged 30-40 years and body mass index 30-36 kg/m2 were participated in this study and divided randomly into exercise (3 months aerobic training, 3 times/weekly) or control (no training) groups. Serum ghrelin and cardiovascular risk factor (TG, TC, LDL, and HDL) were measured before and after treatment. Anthropometrical markers were measured at two occasions. Data were analyzed by independent-paired T-test. Significance was accepted at P < 0.05. Aerobic training resulted in significant decrease in serum ghrelin and TG in exercise group. All anthropometrical markers decreased significantly in exercise group but not in control subjects. Based on these data, it is concluded that weight loss by aerobic training can be affect serum ghrelin in obese subject, although some cardiovascular risk factor remained without changed.

Keywords: aerobic training, homeostasis, lipid profile, obesity

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Authors: Ange Weinrabe, James Tran, Ian B. Hickie

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Risk-taking behaviour is common during youth. In the time between adolescence and early adulthood, young people (aged 15-25 years) are more vulnerable to mood disorders, such as anxiety and depression. What impact does an emerging mood disorder have on decision-making in youth at critical decision points in their lives? In this article, we explore the impact of risk and ambiguity on youth decision-making in a clinical setting using a well-known economic experiment. At two time points, separated by six to eight weeks, we measured risky and ambiguous choices concurrently with findings from three psychological questionnaires, the 10-item Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K10), the 17-item Quick Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology Adolescent Version (QIDS-A17), and the 12-item Somatic and Psychological Health Report (SPHERE-12), for young help seekers aged 16-25 (n=30, mean age 19.22 years, 19 males). When first arriving for care, we found that 50% (n=15) of participants experienced severe anxiety (K10 ≥ 30) and were severely depressed (QIDS-A17 ≥ 16). In Session 2, taking attrition rates into account (n=5), we found that 44% (n=11) remained severe across the full battery of questionnaires. When applying multiple regression analyses of the pooled sample of observations (N=55), across both sessions, we found that participants who rated severely anxious avoided making risky decisions. We suggest there is some statistically significant (although weak) (p=0.09) relation between risk and severe anxiety scores as measured by K10. Our findings may support working with novel tools with which to evaluate youth experiencing an emerging mood disorder and their cognitive capacities influencing decision-making.

Keywords: anxiety, decision-making, risk, adolescence

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Authors: S. P. Rana

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Objectives: For the manufacture of a very thin strip or a strip with a high-quality finish, the stainless steel sheet that is called billet is re-rolled in re-rolling mill to make stainless steel sheet of 18 gauges. The rolls of re-rolling mill exert tremendous pressure over the sheet and there is likely chance of breaking of stainless steel strip from the sheet. The objective of the study was to minimise the number of accidents in steel re-rolling mills due to ejection of stainless steel strip and to minimize the pollution caused by the pickling process used in these units. Methods: Looking into the high rate of frequency and severity of accidents as well as pollution hazard in re-rolling and pickling mills, it becomes essential to make necessary arrangements for prevention of accidents in such type of industry. The author carried out survey/inspections of a large number of re-rolling and pickling mills and allied units. During the course of inspection, the working of these steel re-rolling and pickling mills was closely studied and monitored. A number of accidents involving re-rolling mills were investigated and subsequently remedial measures to prevent the occurrence of such accidents were suggested. Assessment of occupational safety and health system of these units was carried out and compliance level of the statutory requirements was checked. The workers were medically examined and monitored to ascertain their health conditions. Results: Proper use of safety gadgets by workers, machine guarding and regular training brought down the risk to an acceptable level and discharged effluent pollution was brought down to permissible limits. The fatal accidents have been reduced by 83%. Conclusions: Effective enforcement and implementation of the directions/suggestions given to the managements of such units brought down the no. of accidents to a rational level. The number of fatal accidents has reduced by 83% during the study period. The effective implementation of pollution control device curtailed the pollution level to an acceptable level.

Keywords: re-rolling mill, hazard, accident, health hazards

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Authors: Yuki Irie, Shota Ogawa, Hitomi Kosugi, Hiromitsu Shinozaki

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Background: Dropout from higher educational institutions is a major problem both for students and institutions, and poor mental health is one of the risk factors. Medical college students are at higher risk of poor mental health than general students because of their hard academic schedules. On the other hand, food insecurity has negative impacts on mental health. The healthcare college of the project site is located heavily snowy area. The students without own vehicles may be at higher risk of food insecurity, especially in the winter season. Therefore, they have many risks to mental health. The aim of the study is to clarify the relationship between mental health and its risk factors to promote students’ mental well-being. Method: A cross-sectional design was used to investigate the relationship between mental health status and lifestyle, including diet and food security among the students (n=421, 147 male, 274 females; 20.7 ± 2.8 years old). Participants were required to answer 3 questionnaires which consisted of diet, lifestyle, food security, and mental health. The survey was conducted during the snowy season from Dec. 2022 to Jan. 2023. Results: Mean mental score was 6.7±4.6 (max. score 27, a higher score means worse mental health). Significant risk factors in mental health were breakfast habit (p=0.02), subjective dietary habit (p=0.00), subjective health (p=0.00), exercise habit (p=0.02), food insecurity in the winter season (p=0.01), and vitamin A intakes (p=0.03). Conclusions: Nutrients intakes are not associated with mental health except vitamin A; however, some other lifestyle factors are significantly associated with mental health. Nutrition doesn’t lead to poor mental health directly; however, the promotion of a healthy lifestyle and improved food security in winter may be effective in better mental health.

Keywords: mental health, winter, lifestyle, students

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Authors: C. V. Pietreanu, S. E. Zaharia, C. Dinu

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The present research is built on three major pillars, commencing by making some considerations on accident investigation methods and pointing out both defining aspects and differences between linear and non-linear analysis. The traditional linear focus on accident analysis describes accidents as a sequence of events, while the latest systemic models outline interdependencies between different factors and define the processes evolution related to a specific (normal) situation. Linear and non-linear accident analysis methods have specific limitations, so the second point of interest is mirrored by the aim to discover the drawbacks of systemic models which becomes a starting point for developing new directions to identify risks or data closer to the cause of incidents/accidents. Since communication represents a critical issue in the interaction of human factor and has been proved to be the answer of the problems made by possible breakdowns in different communication procedures, from this focus point, on the third pylon a new error-modeling instrument suitable for risk assessment/accident analysis will be elaborated.

Keywords: accident analysis, multi-factorial error modeling, risk, systemic methods

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Authors: Cabangile Ncengeni Ngwane, Gerald Mills

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Anthropogenic climate change is exacerbating natural hazards such as droughts, heat waves and sea-level rise. The associated risks are the greatest in places where socio-ecological systems are exposed to these changes and the populations and infrastructure are vulnerable. Identifying the communities at risk and enhancing local resilience are key issues in responding to the current and project climate changes. This paper explores the types of risks associated with multiple overlapping hazards in Durban, South Africa where the social, cultural and economic dimensions that contribute to exposure and vulnerability are compounded by its history of apartheid. As a result, climate change risks are highly concentrated in marginalized communities that have the least adaptive capacity. In this research, a Geographic Information System is to explore the spatial correspondence among geographic layers representing hazards, exposure and vulnerability across Durban. This quantitative analysis will allow authors to identify communities at high risk and focus our study on the nature of the current human-environment relationships that result in risk inequalities. This work will employ qualitative methods to critically examine policies (including educational practices and financial support systems) and on-the-ground actions that are designed to improve the adaptive capacity of these communities and meet UN Sustainable Development Goals. This work will contribute to a growing body of literature on disaster risk management, especially as it relates to developing economies where socio-economic inequalities are correlated with ethnicity and race.

Keywords: adaptive capacity, disaster risk reduction, exposure, resilience, South Africa

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Authors: Cathryn Robinson, Bernard McKenna, David Rooney

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This paper argues that the application of values-based leadership increasingly challenges leaders in rules-based organisations, particularly in bureaucratic organisations such as the military, public service, police, and emergency services. Leaders are grappling to reconcile how to enact values-based leadership and decision-making when they are bound by rules, policies, and procedures. This interpretive study used a multi-faceted vignette (critical incident) as the basis of an interview with air force officers at three levels: executive, senior, and junior. In this way, practice is forced to intersect with discourse. The findings revealed a shared set of discourse themes (legal; rules; safety and risk; operational practice/theatre discourses), but also clear dialectical tensions. These tensions were evident in executive officers and senior leaders emphasizing rules and information themes, whereas junior officers emphasized decision making, collateral, and situation. These findings reveal discourse and practice incommensurability that could have grave implications in the conduct of war.

Keywords: critical incident, discourse analysis, rules-based, values-based

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Authors: G. Yanay-Ventura, H. Desivilya Syna, K. Michael

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Social businesses are based on the idea that an enterprise can be established for the sake of profit and, at the same time, with the aim of fulfilling social goals. Yet, the question of how these goals can be integrated in practice to derive parallel benefit in both realms still needs to be examined. Particularly notable in this context is the ‘governance challenge’ of social businesses, meaning the danger of the mission drifts from the social goal in the pursuit of good business. This study is based on an evaluation study of a social business that operates as a restaurant providing professional training to at-risk youth. The evaluation was based on the collection of a variety of data through interviews with stakeholders in the enterprise (directors and managers, business partners, social partners, and position holders in the restaurant and the social enterprise), a focus group consisting of the youth receiving the professional training, observations of the restaurant’s operation, and analysis of the social enterprise’s primary documents. The evaluation highlighted significant strengths of the social enterprise, including reaching relatively fast business sustainability, effective management of the restaurant, stable employment of the restaurant staff, and effective management of the social project. The social enterprise and business management have both enjoyed positive evaluations from a variety of stakeholders. Clearly, the restaurant was deemed by all a promising young business. However, the social project suffered from a 90% dropout rate among the youth entering its ranks, extreme monthly fluctuation in the number of youths participating, and a distinct minority of the youth who have succeeded in completing their training period. Possible explanations of the high dropout rate included the small number of cooks, which impeded the effectiveness of the training process and the provision of advanced cooking skills; lack of clarity regarding the essence and the elements of training; and lack of a meaningful peer group for the youth engaged in the program. Paradoxically, despite the stakeholders’ great appreciation for the social enterprise, the challenge of governability was also formidable, revealing a tangible risk of mission drift in the reduction of the social enterprise’s target population and a breach of the commitment made to the youth with regard to practical training. The risk of mission drifts emerged as a hidden and evasive issue for the stakeholders, who revealed a deep appreciation for the management and the outcomes of the social enterprise. The challenge of integration, therefore, requires an in-depth examination of how to maintain a successful business without hindering the achievement of the social goal. The study concludes that clear conceptualization of the training process and its aims, increased cooks’ participation in the social project, and novel conceptions with regard to the evaluation of success could serve to benefit the youth and impede mission drift.

Keywords: evaluation study, management, mission drift, social business

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Authors: Mária Hudáková, Vladimír Míka, Katarína Hollá

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Making decisions is the core of management and a result of conscious activities which is under way in a particular environment and concrete conditions. The managers decide about the goals, procedures and about the methods how to respond to the changes and to the problems which developed. Their decisions affect the effectiveness, quality, economy and the overall successfulness in every organisation. In spite of this fact, they do not pay sufficient attention to the individual steps of the decision-making process. They emphasise more how to cope with the individual methods and techniques of making decisions and forget about the way how to cope with analysing the problem or assessing the individual solution variants. In many cases, the underestimating of the analytical phase can lead to an incorrect assessment of the problem and this can then negatively influence its further solution. Based on our analysis of the theoretical solutions by individual authors who are dealing with this area and the realised research in Slovakia and also abroad we can recognise an insufficient interest of the managers to assess the risks in the decision-making process. The goal of this paper is to assess the risks in the managers´ decision-making process relating to the conditions of the environment, to the subject’s activity (the manager’s personality), to the insufficient assessment of individual variants for solving the problems but also to situations when the arisen problem is not solved. The benefit of this paper is the effort to increase the need of the managers to deal with the risks during the decision-making process. It is important for every manager to assess the risks in his/her decision-making process and to make efforts to take such decisions which reflect the basic conditions, states and development of the environment in the best way and especially for the managers´ decisions to contribute to achieving the determined goals of the organisation as effectively as possible.

Keywords: risk, decision-making, manager, process, analysis, source of risk

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Authors: Sıdıka Kaya, Gülay Sain Güven, Seda Karsavuran, Onur Toka

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This study is part of an ongoing research project supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) under Project Number 114K404, and participation to this conference was supported by Hacettepe University Scientific Research Coordination Unit under Project Number 10243. Evaluation of hospital readmissions is gaining importance in terms of quality and cost, and is becoming the target of national policies. In Turkey, the topic of hospital readmission is relatively new on agenda and very few studies have been conducted on this topic. The aim of this study was to determine 30-day readmission rates and risk factors for readmission. Whether readmission was planned, related to the prior admission and avoidable or not was also assessed. The study was designed as a ‘prospective cohort study.’ 472 patients hospitalized in internal medicine departments of a university hospital in Turkey between February 1, 2015 and April 30, 2015 were followed up. Analyses were conducted using IBM SPSS Statistics version 22.0 and SPSS Modeler 16.0. Average age of the patients was 56 and 56% of the patients were female. Among these patients 95 were readmitted. Overall readmission rate was calculated as 20% (95/472). However, only 31 readmissions were unplanned. Unplanned readmission rate was 6.5% (31/472). Out of 31 unplanned readmission, 24 was related to the prior admission. Only 6 related readmission was avoidable. To determine risk factors for readmission we constructed Chi-square automatic interaction detector (CHAID) decision tree algorithm. CHAID decision trees are nonparametric procedures that make no assumptions of the underlying data. This algorithm determines how independent variables best combine to predict a binary outcome based on ‘if-then’ logic by portioning each independent variable into mutually exclusive subsets based on homogeneity of the data. Independent variables we included in the analysis were: clinic of the department, occupied beds/total number of beds in the clinic at the time of discharge, age, gender, marital status, educational level, distance to residence (km), number of people living with the patient, any person to help his/her care at home after discharge (yes/no), regular source (physician) of care (yes/no), day of discharge, length of stay, ICU utilization (yes/no), total comorbidity score, means for each 3 dimensions of Readiness for Hospital Discharge Scale (patient’s personal status, patient’s knowledge, and patient’s coping ability) and number of daycare admissions within 30 days of discharge. In the analysis, we included all 95 readmitted patients (46.12%), but only 111 (53.88%) non-readmitted patients, although we had 377 non-readmitted patients, to balance data. The risk factors for readmission were found as total comorbidity score, gender, patient’s coping ability, and patient’s knowledge. The strongest identifying factor for readmission was comorbidity score. If patients’ comorbidity score was higher than 1, the risk for readmission increased. The results of this study needs to be validated by other data–sets with more patients. However, we believe that this study will guide further studies of readmission and CHAID is a useful tool for identifying risk factors for readmission.

Keywords: decision tree, hospital, internal medicine, readmission

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Authors: F. Gökgöz, M. E. Atmaca

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Electricity plays an indispensable role in human life and the economy. It is a unique product or service that must be balanced instantaneously, as electricity is not stored, generation and consumption should be proportional. Effective and efficient use of electricity is very important not only for society, but also for the environment. A competitive electricity market is one of the best ways to provide a suitable platform for effective and efficient use of electricity. On the other hand, it carries some risks that should be carefully managed by the market players. Risk management is an essential part in market players’ decision making. In this paper, risk management through diversification is applied with the help of Markowitz’s Mean-variance, Down-side and Semi-variance methods for a case study. Performance of optimal electricity sale solutions are measured and evaluated via Sharpe-Ratio, and the optimal portfolio solutions are improved. Two years of historical weekdays’ price data of the Turkish Day Ahead Market are used to demonstrate the approach.

Keywords: electricity market, portfolio optimization, risk management in electricity market, sharpe ratio

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