Search results for: risk based index

Authors: Cenk Aksit, Suleyman Kodal, Yusuf Ersoy Yildirim

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Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is a widely used index in the world that provides reference information, such as the health status of the plant, and the density of the vegetation in a certain area, by making use of the electromagnetic radiation reflected from the plant surface. On the other hand, the chlorophyll index provides reference information about the chlorophyll density in the plant by making use of electromagnetic reflections at certain wavelengths. Chlorophyll concentration is higher in healthy plants and decreases as plant health decreases. This study, it was aimed to determine the changes in Normalize Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalize Difference Chlorophyll (NDCI) of silage corn irrigated with subsurface drip irrigation systems under different irrigation levels. In 5 days irrigation interval, the daily potential plant water consumption values were collected, and the calculated amount was applied to the full irrigation and 3 irrigation water levels as irrigation water. The changes in NDVI and NDCI of silage corn irrigated with subsurface drip irrigation systems under different irrigation levels were determined. NDVI values have changed according to the amount of irrigation water applied, and the highest NDVI value has been reached in the subject where the most water is applied. Likewise, it was observed that the chlorophyll value decreased in direct proportion to the amount of irrigation water as the plant approached the harvest.

Keywords: NDVI, NDCI, sub-surface drip irrigation, silage corn, deficit irrigation

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Authors: Abdullah Alsayeqh

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The burden of foodborne diseases in Saudi Arabia is currently unknown. The objective of this study was to identify risk factors associated with these diseases among women in Riyadh. A cross-sectional study was carried out from March to July, 2013 where participants’ responses indicated that they were at risk of these diseases through improper food-holding temperature (45.28%), inadequate cooking (35.47%), cross-contamination (32.23%), and food from unsafe sources (22.39%). The claimed food safety knowledge by 22.04% of participants was not evidenced by their reported behaviors (p > 0.05). This is the first study to identify the gap in food safety knowledge among women in Riyadh which needs to be addressed by the concerned authorities in the country by engaging women more effectively in food safety educational campaigns.

Keywords: foodborne diseases, risk factors, knowledge, women, Saudi Arabia

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Authors: Pulak Swain, A. K. Ojha

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Portfolio optimization is based on dealing with the problems of efficient asset allocation. Risk and Expected return are two conflicting criteria in such problems, where the investor prefers the return to be high and the risk to be low. Using multi-objective approach we can solve those type of problems. However the information which we have for the input parameters are generally ambiguous and the input values can fluctuate around some nominal values. We can not ignore the uncertainty in input values, as they can affect the asset allocation drastically. So we use Robust Optimization approach to the problems where the input parameters comes under box uncertainty. In this paper, we solve the multi criteria robust problem with the help of  E- constraint method.

Keywords: portfolio optimization, multi-objective optimization, ϵ - constraint method, box uncertainty, robust optimization

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Authors: C. V. Pietreanu, S. E. Zaharia, C. Dinu

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Hazard assessment and risks quantification are key components for estimating the impact of existing regulations. But since regulatory compliance cannot cover all risks in aviation, the authors point out that by studying causal factors and eliminating uncertainty, an accurate analysis can be outlined. The research debuts by making delimitations on notions, as confusion on the terms over time has reflected in less rigorous analysis. Throughout this paper, it will be emphasized the fact that the variation in human performance and organizational factors represent the biggest threat from an operational perspective. Therefore, advanced risk assessment methods analyzed by the authors aim to understand vulnerabilities of the system given by a nonlinear behavior. Ultimately, the mathematical modeling of existing hazards and risks by eliminating uncertainty implies establishing an optimal solution (i.e. risk minimization).

Keywords: control, human factor, optimization, risk management, uncertainty

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Authors: Patel Kailash P, Patel Parimal M

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The effect of coal fly ash treatment on the chromosomes of Raphanus sativus L. was investigated. The seeds of Raphanus sativusL. were placed in petri dishes in three replicates and allowed to germinate for five days in different concentration of coal fly ash solution. The root was treated with the diluted, semidiluted, and concentrated solution of fly ash while the control group had distilled water.The total aberration were examined. The mitotic index was calculated and the results were statically evaluated by the analysis of variance 5% significant level. The mitotic index decreased as the concentration increased. The highest mitotic index value was diluted fly ash solution while the least was concentrated fly ash treatment. The results show the most frequent chromosomal abnormalities observed included: chromatid bridge, c-mitosis, and stickiness. Concentrated fly ash solution is much more genotoxic than semidiluted fly ash solution, as it induced more aberrations having percentage abnormalities for the highest concentration tested. Increased fly ash pollution can lead to some irreversible cytogenetic effect in plants. The study is an attempt to corroborate the toxic effect of coal fly ash of thermal power plant on the chromosome of plants. These results will be useful in environmental monitoring of the cytotoxicity of coal fly ash.

Keywords: coal fly-ash, genotoxic, cytogenetic, mitotic index, Raphanus sativus L.

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Authors: A. V. Belousov, Yakushenko

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One of the main problems of modern dentistry is development a reliable method to detect inflammation in the gums on the stages of diagnosis and assessment of treatment efficacy. We have proposed a method of gingival fluid intake, which successfully combines accessibility, excluding the impact of the annoying and damaging the gingival sulcus factors and provides reliable results (patent of RF№ 2342956 Method of gingival fluid intake). The objects of the study were students - volunteers of Dentistry Faculty numbering 75 people aged 20-21 years. Cellular composition of gingival fluid was studied using microscope "Olympus CX 31" (Japan) with the calculation of epithelial leukocyte index (ELI). Assessment of gingival micro circulation was performed using the apparatus «LAKK–01» (Lazma, Moscow). Cytological investigation noted the highly informative of epithelial leukocyte index (ELI), which demonstrated changes in the mechanisms of protection gums. The increase of ELI occurs during inhibition mechanisms of phagocytosis and activation of epithelial desquamation. The cytological data correlate with micro circulation indicators obtained by laser Doppler flowmetry. We have identified and confirmed the correlations between parameters laser Doppler flowmetry and data cytology gingival fluid in patients with gingivitis.

Keywords: gingivitis, laser doppler flowmetry, gingival fluid cytology, epithelial leukocyte index (ELI)

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Authors: Shreedevi Moharana, Subashisa Dutta

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The present study focuses on the estimation of crop biophysical parameters like crop chlorophyll, nitrogen and water stress at plot scale in the crop fields. To achieve these, we have used high-resolution satellite LISS IV imagery. A new methodology has proposed in this research work, the spectral shape function of paddy crop is employed to get the significant wavelengths sensitive to paddy crop parameters. From the shape functions, regression index models were established for the critical wavelength with minimum and maximum wavelengths of multi-spectrum high-resolution LISS IV data. Moreover, the functional relationships were utilized to develop the index models. From these index models crop, biophysical parameters were estimated and mapped from LISS IV imagery at plot scale in crop field level. The result showed that the nitrogen content of the paddy crop varied from 2-8%, chlorophyll from 1.5-9% and water content variation observed from 40-90% respectively. It was observed that the variability in rice agriculture system in India was purely a function of field topography.

Keywords: crop parameters, index model, LISS IV imagery, plot scale, shape function

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Authors: Jayanta Pokharel, Gokarna Aryal, Netra Kanaal, Chris Tsokos

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Investment in stocks and shares aims to seek potential gains while weighing the risk of future needs, such as retirement, children's education etc. Analysis of the behavior of the stock market returns and making prediction is important for investors to mitigate risk on investment. Historically, the normal variance models have been used to describe the behavior of stock market returns. However, the returns of the financial assets are actually skewed with higher kurtosis, heavier tails, and a higher center than the normal distribution. The Laplace distribution and its family are natural candidates for modeling stock returns. The Variance-Gamma (VG) distribution is the most sought-after distributions for modeling asset returns and has been extensively discussed in financial literatures. In this paper, it explore the other Laplace family, such as Asymmetric Laplace, Skewed Laplace, Kumaraswamy Laplace (KS) together with Variance-Gamma to model the weekly returns of the S&P 500 Index and it's eleven business sector indices. The method of maximum likelihood is employed to estimate the parameters of the distributions and our empirical inquiry shows that the Kumaraswamy Laplace distribution performs much better for stock returns modeling among the choice of distributions used in this study and in practice, KS can be used as a strong alternative to VG distribution.

Keywords: stock returns, variance-gamma, kumaraswamy laplace, maximum likelihood

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Authors: Demosthenes Panagiotakos

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The aim of the present work was to evaluate dietary habits’ inflammatory potential with various components of arterial blood pressure (hypertension, mean arterial pressure (MAP) and pulse pressure (PP)) in a sample of older Mediterranean people without known cardiovascular disease. During 2005-2011, 2,813 older (aged 65-100 years) individuals from 21 Mediterranean islands and the rural Mani region (Peloponnesus) were voluntarily enrolled. Standard procedures were used to determine arterial blood pressure, as well as PP and MAP, and for the evaluation of dietary habits, lifestyle, anthropometric and clinical characteristics of the participants. A dietary inflammatory index (DII) was assessed based on the participants specific dietary habits, and its calculation was based on a standard procedure. It was reported that the higher the DII level of a diet (adherence to a more pro-inflammatory diet) the greater was the likelihood of having an older adult hypertension [OR=3.82 (95% CI): 1.24 to 11.71]. Moreover, the higher the level of DII (more pro-inflammatory dietary habits) the greater were the levels of MAP [b-coefficient (95% CI): 7.23 (+1.86 to +12.59)] and PP, [b-coefficient (95% CI): 10.86 (+2.70 to +19.01)]. Diet’s inflammatory potential is related with various components of arterial pressure. Adherence to a more pro-inflammatory diet seems to be associated with increased arterial peripheral resistance and arterial stiffness.

Keywords: dietary inflammatory index, hypertension, mean arterial pressure, elderly

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Authors: Cuong V Nguyen, Ralph Horne, John Fien, France Cheong

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Social vulnerability to climate change is increasingly being acknowledged, and proposals to measure and manage it are emerging. Building upon this work, this paper proposes an approach to social vulnerability assessment using a new mechanism to aggregate and account for causal relationships among components of a Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). To operationalize this index, the authors propose a means to develop an appropriate primary dataset, through application of a specifically-designed household survey questionnaire. The data collection and analysis, including calibration and calculation of the SVI is demonstrated through application in case study city in central coastal Vietnam. The calculation of SVI at the fine-grained local neighbourhood scale provides high resolution in vulnerability assessment, and also obviates the need for secondary data, which may be unavailable or problematic, particularly at the local scale in developing countries. The SVI household survey is underpinned by the results of a Delphi survey, an in-depth interview and focus group discussions with local environmental professionals and community members. The research reveals inherent limitations of existing SVIs but also indicates the potential for their use in assessing social vulnerability and making decisions associated with responding to climate change at the local scale.

Keywords: climate change, local scale, social vulnerability, social vulnerability index

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Authors: Yolanda Indah Permatasari, Sudarsono Hardjosoekarto

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Public private partnership (PPP) scheme was considered as an alternative source of funding for infrastructure provision. However, the performance of PPP scheme and interest of private sector to participate in the provision of infrastructure was still practically low. This phenomenon motivates the research to reconstruct the form of collaborative governance at the policy level from the perspective of transaction cost of the PPP scheme. Soft-system methodology (SSM)-based action research was used as this research methodology. The result of this study concludes that the emergence of transaction cost sources at the policy level is caused by the absence of a law that governs infrastructure investment, especially the implementation of PPP scheme. This absence is causing the imbalance in risk allocation and risk mitigation between the public and private sector. Thus, this research recommended the formulation of infrastructure investment law that aims to minimize asymmetry information, to anticipate the principal-principal problems, and to provide legal basis that ensures risk certainty and guarantee fair risk allocation between public and private sector.

Keywords: public governance, public private partnership, soft system methodology, transaction cost

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Authors: Otto Kakhidze, Hoda Alkhzaimi, Adam Ramey, Nasir Memon

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This paper provides an alternative, cyber security based a conceptual framework for the ethics of automated warfare. The large body of work produced on fully or partially autonomous warfare systems tends to overlook malicious security factors as in the possibility of technical attacks on these systems when it comes to the moral and legal decision-making. The argument provides a risk-oriented justification to why technical malicious risks cannot be dismissed in legal, ethical and policy considerations when warfare models are being implemented and deployed. The assumptions of the paper are supported by providing a broader model that contains the perspective of technological vulnerabilities through the lenses of the Game Theory, Just War Theory as well as standard and non-standard defense ethics. The paper argues that a conventional risk-benefit analysis without considering ethical factors is insufficient for making legal and policy decisions on automated warfare. This approach will provide the substructure for security and defense experts as well as legal scholars, ethicists and decision theorists to work towards common justificatory grounds that will accommodate the technical security concerns that have been overlooked in the current legal and policy models.

Keywords: automated warfare, ethics of automation, inherent hijacking, security vulnerabilities, risk, uncertainty

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Authors: Despoina Andrioti Bygvraa, Ida-Maja Hassellöv, George Charalambous

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Exhaust gas cleaning systems, also known as scrubbers, are today widely used to allow for the use of High Sulphur Heavy Fuel Oil and still comply with the regulations limiting sulphur content in marine fuels. There are extensive concerns about environmental consequences, especially in the Baltic Sea, from the wide-scale use of scrubbers, as the wash water is acidic (ca pH 3) and contains high concentrations of toxic, carcinogenic, and mutagenic substances. The aim of this feasibility study is to investigate the potential adverse effects on seafarers’ health with the ultimate goal of raising awareness of chemical-related health and safety issues in the shipping environment. The project got funding from the Swedish Foundation. The team will extend previously compiled data on scrubber wash water concentrations of hazardous substances and pH to include the use of strong base in closed-loop scrubbers, and scoping assessment on handling and disposing practices. Based on the findings (a), a systematic review of risk assessment will follow to show the risk of exposures, the establishment of the hazardous levels for human health as well as the respective prevention practices. In addition, the researchers will perform (b) a systematic review to identify facilitators and barriers of the crew on compliance with the safe handling of chemicals. The study will run for 12 months, delivering (a) a risk assessment inventory with risk exposures and (b) a course description of safe handling practices. This feasibility study could provide valuable knowledge on how pollutants found in scrubbers should be considered from a human health perspective to facilitate evidence-based informed decisions in future technology- and policy development to make shipping a safer, healthier, and more attractive workplace.

Keywords: health and safety, seafarers, scrubbers, chemicals, risk exposures

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Authors: Fernando Seabra, Giulia P. Flores, Karolina C. Gomes

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Trade liberalizations measures, as import tariff cuts, are not a sufficient trigger for trade growth. Given that price margins are narrow, traders and cargo operators tend to opt out of markets where the process of goods clearance is slow and costly. Excess paperwork and slow customs dispatch not only lead to institutional breakdowns and corruption but also to increasing transaction cost and trade constraints. The objective of this paper is, therefore, two-fold: First, to evaluate the relationship between institutional and infrastructural performance indexes and trade growth in container throughput; and, second, to investigate the causes for differences in container demurrage and detention fees in Latin American countries (using other emerging countries as benchmarking). The analysis is focused on manufactured goods, typically transported by containers. Institutional and infrastructure bottlenecks and, therefore, the country logistics efficiency – measured by the Logistics Performance Index (LPI, World Bank-WB) – are compared with other indexes, such as the Doing Business index (WB) and the Corruption Perception Index (Transparency International). The main results based on the comparison between Latin American countries and the others emerging countries point out in that the growth in containers trade is directly related to LPI performance. It has also been found that the main hypothesis is valid as aspects that more specifically identify trade facilitation and corruption are significant drivers of logistics performance. The exam of port efficiency (demurrage and detention fees) has demonstrated that not necessarily higher level of efficiency is related to lower charges; however, reductions in fees have been more significant within non-Latin American emerging countries.

Keywords: corruption, logistics performance index, container throughput, Latin America

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Authors: Suk Kyoon Song, Myung-Rae Cho

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Purpose: Paralytic ileus occurs in up to 18% of patients with pelvic bone fractures. The aim of this study is to determine if massive bleeding requiring arterial angioembolization is related to the duration of ileus in patients with traumatic pelvic ring injuries. Methods: This retrospective study included 25 patients who underwent arterial angioembolization for traumatic pelvic ring injuries. Data were collected from prospectively maintained databases of two independent hospitals. Results: Demographic characteristics (such as age, sex, body mass index, and Charlson Comorbidity Index), cause of trauma, and severity of pelvic injuries were similar in the non-prolonged and prolonged ileus groups. As expected, the prolonged ileus group had a significantly longer duration of ileus than the non-prolonged ileus group (8.0 ± 4.2 days vs. 1.2 ± 0.4 days, respectively, P < 0.001). The mortality rate was higher in the prolonged ileus group (20% vs. 0%), but it was not significantly different (P = 0.13). Interestingly, the prolonged ileus group received significantly higher amounts of packed red blood cell (PRBC) transfusions (6.1 ± 2.1 units vs. 3.8 ± 2.5 units; P = 0.02). The amount of PRBC transfusions was associated with a greater risk of prolonged ileus development (P = 0.03, OR = 2.04, 95% CI = 1.08-3.88). Conclusion: This study supports the idea that the duration of the ileus is related to the amount of bleeding caused by the traumatic pelvic ring injury. In order to prevent further complications, conservative treatments of the ileus should be considered.

Keywords: pelvic ring injury, bleeding, ileus, arterial angioembolization

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Authors: Pema Choejey, David Murray, Chun Che Fung

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Bhutan is becoming increasingly dependent on Information and Communications Technologies (ICTs), especially the Internet for performing the daily activities of governments, businesses, and individuals. Consequently, information systems and networks are becoming more exposed and vulnerable to cybersecurity threats. This paper highlights the findings of the survey study carried out to understand the perceptions of cybersecurity implementation among government organizations in Bhutan. About 280 ICT personnel were surveyed about the effectiveness of cybersecurity implementation in their organizations. A questionnaire based on a 5 point Likert scale was used to assess the perceptions of respondents. The questions were asked on cybersecurity practices such as cybersecurity policies, awareness and training, and risk management. The survey results show that less than 50% of respondents believe that the cybersecurity implementation is effective: cybersecurity policy (40%), risk management (23%), training and awareness (28%), system development life cycle (34%); incident management (26%), and communications and operational management (40%). The findings suggest that many of the cybersecurity practices are inadequately implemented and therefore, there exist a gap in achieving a required cybersecurity posture. This study recommends government organizations to establish a comprehensive cybersecurity program with emphasis on cybersecurity policy, risk management, and awareness and training. In addition, the research study has practical implications to both government and private organizations for implementing and managing cybersecurity.

Keywords: awareness and training, cybersecurity policy, risk management, security risks

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Authors: M. Ahmadi, M. Kafil, H. Ebrahimi

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Nowadays, induction motors have a significant role in industries. Condition monitoring (CM) of this equipment has gained a remarkable importance during recent years due to huge production losses, substantial imposed costs and increases in vulnerability, risk, and uncertainty levels. Motor current signature analysis (MCSA) is one of the most important techniques in CM. This method can be used for rotor broken bars detection. Signal processing methods such as Fast Fourier transformation (FFT), Wavelet transformation and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) are used for analyzing MCSA output data. In this study, these signal processing methods are used for broken bar problem detection of Mobarakeh steel company induction motors. Based on wavelet transformation method, an index for fault detection, CF, is introduced which is the variation of maximum to the mean of wavelet transformation coefficients. We find that, in the broken bar condition, the amount of CF factor is greater than the healthy condition. Based on EMD method, the energy of intrinsic mode functions (IMF) is calculated and finds that when motor bars become broken the energy of IMFs increases.

Keywords: broken bar, condition monitoring, diagnostics, empirical mode decomposition, fourier transform, wavelet transform

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Authors: Christian Ogubuchi Ede, Moses Oghenenyoreme Eyankware

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This study assessed the concentration of heavy metals (HMs) in soil, rock, mine dump pile, and water from Oshiri and Ishiagu areas of Ebonyi State. Investigations on mobile fraction equally evaluated the geochemical condition of different HM using UV spectrophotometer for Mineralized and unmineralized rocks, dumps, and soil, while AAS was used in determining the geochemical nature of the water system. Analysis revealed very high pollution of Cd mostly in Ishiagu (Ihetutu and Amaonye) active mine zones and with subordinates enrichments of Pb, Cu, As, and Zn in Amagu and Umungbala. Oshiri recorded sparingly moderate to high contamination of Cd and Mn but out rightly high anthropogenic input. Observation showed that most of the contamination conditions were unbearable while at the control but decrease with increasing distance from the mine vicinity. The potential heavy metal risk of the environments was evaluated using the risk factors such as enrichment factor, index of Geoacumulation, Contamination Factor, and Effect Range Median. Cadmium and Zn showed moderate to extreme contamination using Geoaccumulation Index (Igeo) while Pb, Cd, and As indicated moderate to strong pollution using the Effect Range Median. Results, when compared with the allowable limits and standards, showed the concentration of the metals in the following order Cd>Zn>Pb>As>Cu>Ni (rocks), Cd>As>Pb>Zn>Cu>Ni (soil) while Cd>Zn>As>Pb> Cu (for mine dump pile. High concentrations of Zn and As were recorded more in mine pond and salt line/drain channels along active mine zones, it heightened its threat during the rainy period as it settles into river course, living behind full-scale contaminations to inhabitants depending on it for domestic uses. Pb and Cu with moderate pollution were recorded in surface/stream water source as its mobility were relatively low. Results from Ishiagu Crush rock sites and Fedeco metallurgical and auto workshop where groundwater contamination was seen infiltrating some of the wells points gave rise to values that were 4 times high than the allowable limits. Some of these metal concentrations according to WHO (2015) if left unmitigated pose adverse effects to the soil and human community.

Keywords: water, geo-accumulation, heavy metals, mine and Nigeria.

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Authors: Nikhat Nawaz, S. Srinivasulu, P. Kesava Rao

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Feature extraction plays an important role in many remote sensing applications. Automatic extraction of water bodies is of great significance in many remote sensing applications like change detection, image retrieval etc. This paper presents a procedure for automatic extraction of water information from remote sensing images. The algorithm uses the relative location of R-colour component of the chromaticity diagram. This method is then integrated with the effectiveness of the spatial scale transformation of whole method. The whole method is based on water index fitted from spectral library. Experimental results demonstrate the improved accuracy and effectiveness of the integrated method for automatic extraction of water bodies.

Keywords: feature extraction, remote sensing, image retrieval, chromaticity, water index, spectral library, integrated method

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Authors: Larry V. Aceres, Jesryl B. Paulite, Emelie M. Pelicano, J. B. Anciano, J. A. Esteban

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Enhancing the population of beneficial arthropods under less diverse agroecosystem is the most sought by many researchers and plant growers. This strategy was done through the establishment of pintoi peanut, Arachis pintoi as live mulch or cover crop in pummelo orchard of the University of Southeastern Philippines (USeP), Mabini, Compostela Valley Province, Philippines. This study was conducted to compare and compute population dynamics and diversity of beneficial arthropods in pummelo in with and without Arachis pintoi cover crop. Data collections were done for the 12-month period (from June 2013 to May 2014) at the pummelo orchard of USeP Mabini Campus, COMVAL Province, Philippines and data were analyzed using the Independent Samples T-Test to compare the effect of the presence and absence of Arachis pintoi on beneficial arthropods incidence in pummelo orchard. Moreover, diversity and family richness analyses were computed using the Margalef’s diversity index for family richness; the Shannon index of general diversity and the evenness index; and the Simpson index of dominance. Results revealed numerically and statistically higher density of important beneficial arthropods such as microhymenopterans, macrohymenopterans, spiders, tachinid flies and ground beetles were recorded in pummelo orchard with Arachis pintoi than from without Arachis pintoi cover crop for the 12-month observation period. Further, the result of the study revealed the high family richness and diversity index with more or less even distribution of individuals within the family and low dominance index were documented in pummelo with Arachis pintoi cover crop than from pummelo without Arachis pintoi cover crop. The study revealed that planting A. pintoi in pummelo orchard could enhance natural enemy populations.

Keywords: Arachis pintoi, cover crop, beneficial arthropods, pummelo

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Authors: A. Fathianpour, M. B. Jelodar, S. Wilkinson

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This paper outlines the approaches taken to assess multi-hazard assessments. There is currently confusion in assessing multi-hazard impacts, and so this study aims to determine which of the available options are the most useful. The paper uses an international literature search, and analysis of current multi-hazard assessments and a case study to illustrate the effectiveness of the chosen method. Findings from this study will help those wanting to assess multi-hazards to undertake a straightforward approach. The paper is significant as it helps to interpret the various approaches and concludes with the preferred method. Many people in the world live in hazardous environments and are susceptible to disasters. Unfortunately, when a disaster strikes it is often compounded by additional cascading hazards, thus people would confront more than one hazard simultaneously. Hazards include natural hazards (earthquakes, floods, etc.) or cascading human-made hazards (for example, Natural Hazard Triggering Technological disasters (Natech) such as fire, explosion, toxic release). Multi-hazards have a more destructive impact on urban areas than one hazard alone. In addition, climate change is creating links between different disasters such as causing landslide dams and debris flows leading to more destructive incidents. Much of the prevailing literature deals with only one hazard at a time. However, recently sophisticated multi-hazard assessments have started to appear. Given that multi-hazards occur, it is essential to take multi-hazard risk assessment under consideration. This paper aims to review the multi-hazard assessment methods through articles published to date and categorize the strengths and disadvantages of using these methods in risk assessment. Napier City is selected as a case study to demonstrate the necessity of using multi-hazard risk assessments. In order to assess multi-hazard risk assessments, first, the current multi-hazard risk assessment methods were described. Next, the drawbacks of these multi-hazard risk assessments were outlined. Finally, the improvements to current multi-hazard risk assessments to date were summarised. Generally, the main problem of multi-hazard risk assessment is to make a valid assumption of risk from the interactions of different hazards. Currently, risk assessment studies have started to assess multi-hazard situations, but drawbacks such as uncertainty and lack of data show the necessity for more precise risk assessment. It should be noted that ignoring or partial considering multi-hazards in risk assessment will lead to an overestimate or overlook in resilient and recovery action managements.

Keywords: cascading hazards, disaster assessment, mullti-hazards, risk assessment

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Authors: Lamyaa Gamal El-Deen Taha, Ashraf Sharawi

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China launched satellite GF-2 in 2014. This study deals with comparing nearest neighbor object-based classification and neural network classification methods for classification of the fused GF-2 image. Firstly, rectification of GF-2 image was performed. Secondly, a comparison between nearest neighbor object-based classification and neural network classification for classification of fused GF-2 was performed. Thirdly, the overall accuracy of classification and kappa index were calculated. Results indicate that nearest neighbor object-based classification is better than neural network classification for urban mapping.

Keywords: GF-2 images, feature extraction-rectification, nearest neighbour object based classification, segmentation algorithms, neural network classification, multilayer perceptron

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Authors: Monika Yadav

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The incorporation of a healthy lifestyle significantly contributes to the advancement of economic development. Urbanization, industrialization, and economic growth have enhanced living conditions, promoting sedentary behaviours among individuals with elevated socio-economic statuses. The prevalence of overweight and obesity has increased globally, along with the rise in living standards, posing a growing health risk. Overweight and obesity are known to be precursors to a range of modifiable and metabolic risk factors, contributing to the increase in lifestyle diseases. Unhealthy dietary choices and lifestyle practices primarily drive these diseases. Lifestyle diseases refer to chronic and non-communicable illnesses, encompassing conditions such as hypertension, heart disease, kidney disorders, infertility, polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOD), diabetes, respiratory diseases, and certain forms of cancer. This study examines the prevalence of lifestyle diseases among urban Indian women, explicitly differentiating between individuals with normal weight and those classified as obese. The main aim of this study is to investigate whether there is a correlation between a higher body mass index (BMI) in women and an increased vulnerability to lifestyle diseases when compared to women with a normal BMI. This research provides insights into the intricate relationship between lifestyle, health, and economic development within urban areas.

Keywords: urbanization, economic development, BMI, NCDs, urban, women, lifestyle practices

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Authors: Mohammed Abed, Rita Nemes

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In this study different amounts of waste cellular concrete powder (WCCP) as replacement of cement have been investigated as an attempt to produce green binder, which is useful for sustainable construction applications. From zero to up to 60% of WCCP by mass replacement amounts of cement has been conducted. Consistency, compressive strength, bending strength and the activity index of WCCP through seven to ninety days old specimens have been examined, where the optimum WCCP replacement was up to 30%, depending on which the activity index still increased to the end of test period (90 days) and this could be an evidence for its continuity to increase for longer age. Also up to 30% of WCCP increased the bending strength to be higher than the control one. The main point in the present study that there is a possibility of replacing cement by 30% of WCCP, however, it is preferable to be less than this amount.

Keywords: cellular concrete powder, waste cellular concrete powder (WCCP), supplementary cementatious material, SCM, activity index, mechanical properties

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Authors: Muhammad Kamran Hanif Khan, Fahad Mushtaq

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Globally, the death rate from cardiovascular disease has risen over the past 20 years, but especially in low and middle-income countries (LMICS), reports the World Health Organization (WHO). Around 17.5 million deaths, or 31% of all deaths worldwide in 2012, were attributed to CVD, 80% of which occurred in low- and middle-income nations, and eighty five percent of all worldwide disability is attributable to cardiovascular disease. This study assessed the dietary habit and Cardiovascular Risk factors among the patients of coronary artery disease against matched controls. The research was a case-control study. Sample size for this case-control study was 410 CAD cases and 410 healthy controls. The case-control ratio was 1:1. Patients diagnosed with coronary artery disease were recruited from the outpatient departments and emergency rooms of four hospitals in Pakistan. The ages of people who were diagnosed with coronary artery disease were not significantly different from (mean 57.97 7.39 years) the healthy controls (mean 57.12 6.73 years). In order to determine the relationship between food consumption and the two binary outcomes, logistic regression analysis was carried out. Chicken (0.340 (0.245-0.47), p-value 0.0001), beef (0.38 (0.254-0.56), p-value 0.0001), eggs (0.297 (0.208-0.426), p-value 0.0001), and junk food (0.249 (0.167-0.372), p-value 0.0001)) were protective, while yogurt consumption more than twice weekly was risk. Conclusion: In conclusion, poor dietary habits are closely linked to the risk of CAD. Investigations based on dietary trends offer vital and practical knowledge about societal patterns.

Keywords: dietary habbits, cardiovasculardisease, CVD risk factors, hypercholesterolemia

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Authors: David Ahiamadia, Ramilan Thiagarajah, Peter Tozer

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In Sub Saharan Africa, farm typologies have been used as a practical way to address heterogeneity among farming systems which is mostly done by grouping farms into subsets with similar characteristics. Due to the complexity in farming systems among farm households, it is not possible to formulate policy recommendations for individual farmers. As a result, this study employs a multivariate statistical approach using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) coupled with cluster analysis to reduce heterogeneity in a 615-household data set from the Africa Rising Baseline Evaluation Survey for 25 farming communities in Northern Ghana. Variables selected for the study were mostly socio-economic, production potential, production intensity, production orientation, crop diversity, food security, resource endowments, and climate risk variables. To avoid making some individuals in the subpopulation worse off when aclimate risk intervention is broadly implemented, the findings of the study also account for diversity in climate risk perception among the different farm types identified and their response strategies towards climate risk. The climate risk variables used in this study involve the most severeclimate shock types perceived by the household, household response to climate shock type, and reason for crop failure (i.e., maize, rice, and groundnut). Eventually, four farm types, each with an adequate level of homogeneity in climate risk perception and response strategies, were identified. Farm type 1 and 3 were wealthy with a lower degree of climate risk perception compared to farm type 2 and 4. Also, relatively wealthy farmers used asset liquidation as a climate risk management strategy, whereas poor farmers resorted to engaging in spiritual activities such as prayers, sacrifices, and divine consultations.

Keywords: smallholder, households, climate risk, variables, typologies

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Authors: Surinder Deswal, Vineet Verma

Abstract:

Air Quality Index (AQI) is used as a tool to indicate the level of severity and disseminate the information on air pollution to enable the public to understand the health and environmental impacts of air pollutant concentration levels. The annual and seasonal variation of criteria air pollutants concentration based on the National Ambient Air Quality Monitoring Programme has been conducted for a period of nine years (2006-2014) using the AQI system. AQI was calculated using IND-AQI methodology and Maximum Operator Concept is applied. An attempt has been made to quantify the variations in AQI on an annual and seasonal basis over a period of nine years. Further, year-wise frequency of occurrence of AQI in each category for all the five stations is analysed, which presents in depth analysis of trends over the period of study. The best air quality was observed in the Noida residential area, followed by Noida industrial area during the study period; whereas, Bulandshahar industrial area and Faridabad residential area were observed to have the worst air quality. A shift in the worst air quality from winter to summer season has also been observed during the study period. Further, the level of Respirable Suspended Particulate Matter was found to be above permissible limit at all the stations. The present study helps in enhancing public awareness and calls for the need of immediate measures to be taken to counter-effect the cause of the increasing level of air pollution.

Keywords: air quality index, annual trends, criteria pollutants, seasonal variation

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Authors: Yi-Hsien Wang, Fu-Ju Yang, Hwa-Rong Shen, Rui-Lin Tseng

Abstract:

The business is notably related to the market risk according to the increase of liberalization of financial markets. Hence, the company usually utilized high financial leverage of derivatives to hedge the risk. When the company choose different hedging instruments to face a variety of exchange rate risk, we employ the Multinomial Logistic-AHP to analyze the impact of various derivatives. Hence, the research summarized the literature on relevant factors affecting managers selected exchange rate hedging instruments, using Multinomial Logistic Model and and further integrate AHP. Using Experts’ Questionnaires can test multi-level selection and hedging effect of different hedging instruments in order to calculate the hedging instruments and the multi-level factors of weights to understand the gap between the empirical results and practical operation. Finally, the Multinomial Logistic-AHP Model will sort the weights to analyze. The research findings can be a basis reference for investors in decision-making.

Keywords: exchange rate risk, derivatives, hedge, multinomial logistic-AHP

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Authors: Peifang Hsieh

Abstract:

The prevention of child abuse has aroused serious concerns in Taiwan because of the disparity between the increasing amount of reported child abuse cases that doubled over the past decade and the scarcity of social workers. New Taipei city, with the most population in Taiwan and over 70% of its 4 million citizens are migrant families in which the needs of children can be easily neglected due to insufficient support from relatives and communities, sees urgency for a social support system, by preemptively identifying and outreaching high-risk families of child abuse, so as to offer timely assistance and preventive measure to safeguard the welfare of the children. Big data analysis is the inspiration. As it was clear that high-risk families of child abuse have certain characteristics in common, New Taipei city decides to consolidate detailed background information data from departments of social affairs, education, labor, and health (for example considering status of parents’ employment, health, and if they are imprisoned, fugitives or under substance abuse), to cross-reference for accurate and prompt identification of the high-risk families in need. 'The Service Center for High-Risk Families' (SCHF) was established to integrate data cross-departmentally. By utilizing the machine learning 'random forest method' to build a risk prediction model which can early detect families that may very likely to have child abuse occurrence, the SCHF marks high-risk families red, yellow, or green to indicate the urgency for intervention, so as to those families concerned can be provided timely services. The accuracy and recall rates of the above model were 80% and 65%. This prediction model can not only improve the child abuse prevention process by helping social workers differentiate the risk level of newly reported cases, which may further reduce their major workload significantly but also can be referenced for future policy-making.

Keywords: child abuse, high-risk families, big data analysis, risk prediction model

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Authors: Simone Raimondi De Souza, Glaucia Maria Moraes De Oliveira, Ronir Raggio Luiz, Glorimar Rosa

Abstract:

Introduction: Obesity is among the main risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Genesis is multifactorial, including genetic, hormonal and environmental factors disorders, among which inadequate feeding pattern, for which nutritional counseling strategies have proven effective. The consumption of beta-glucans (soluble fibers that reportedly promote satiety) present in oat bran can be an effective strategy for preventing and treating obesity. Other benefits have been observed with oat bran consumption, such as reduction of hypercholesterolemia and hyperglycemia, two other risk factors for CVD. Objectives: To analyze the effect of oat bran consumption associated with nutritional counseling in reducing body mass index (BMI), blood cholesterol, glucose profile, waist and neck circumference in obese individuals, and to evaluate the change in eating pattern. Methods: clinical trial, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, lasting 90 days with adults of both genders, with BMI ≥30kg/m2. The study was approved by the Ethics in Research involving human beings in a public institute of cardiology, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Individuals were invited to participate and accepted formally by signing the Terms of Consent. Participants were randomized into oat bran group (gOB) or placebo group (gPCB) and received, respectively: morning prepared consisting of 40g oat bran, 30g of skimmed milk powder and 1g sweetener sucralose; refined flour 40g rice, 30g of milk powder and 1g sweetener sucralose. The Ten Steps to Healthy Eating, of Brazilian Ministry of Health were used to support the nutritional counseling. Variables analyzed: gender; age; BMI, waist circumference (WC) neck circumference (NC); systolic blood pressure (SBP); diastolic blood pressure (DBP); food consumption, total cholesterol (TC), LDL-cholesterol (LDL-c), HDL-cholesterol (HDL-c), non-HDL cholesterol (nHDLc), triglycerides (TG), fasting glucose (FG), fasting insulin (FI) and HOMA-IR. Dietary intake was assessed by 24-hour dietary recall. The Diet Quality Index revised for the Brazilian population (IQD-R) assessed quality of feeding pattern. Statistical analyzes were performed using SPSS version 21, considering statistically significant p-value less than 0.05. Results: A total of 38 participants were included, age = 50 ± 7,6years, 63% women. 19 subjects were placed in gOB and 19 in gPCB. After intervention, statistically significant reductions were observed in the following parameters: in gOB: IQD-R, TC, LDL-c, nHDL-c, FI, SBP, DBP, BMI, WC, NC; in gPCB: IQD-R, LDL-c, SBP, DBP, BMI, WC, NC. No statistically significant differences were observed in the results between groups. Conclusion: Our results reinforce nutritional counseling as important strategy for prevention and treatment of obesity and suggest that inclusion of oat bran in daily diet can bring additional benefits controlling risk factors for CVD. More studies are needed to establish all benefits of oat bran to human health as well as the ideal daily dose for consumption.

Keywords: oat bran, cardiovascular disease, nutritional counseling, obesity

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