Search results for: forecast uncertainty

Authors: Szu-Mei Hsiao

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Many nurses have concerns about the difficulties of providing spiritual care for ethnic-Chinese patients and family members within their cultural context. This is due to a lack of knowledge and training. Most family caregivers are female. There has been little research exploring the potential impact of Chinese cultural values on the spiritual distress of couple dyadic participants in Taiwan. This study explores the spiritual issues of Taiwanese women coping with their husband’s advanced cancer during palliative care to death. Qualitative multiple case studies were used. Data was collected through participant observation and in-depth face-to-face interviews. Transcribed interview data was analyzed by using qualitative content analysis. Three couples were recruited from a community-based rural hospital in Taiwan where the husbands were hospitalized in a medical ward. Four spiritual distress themes emerged from the analysis: (1) A personal conflict in trying to come to terms with love and forgiveness; the inability to forgive their husband’s mistakes; and, lack of their family’s love and support. (2) A feeling of hopelessness due to advanced cancer, such as a feeling of disappointment in their destiny and karma, including expressing doubt on survival. (3) A feeling of uncertainty in facing death peacefully, such as fear of facing the unknown world; and, (4) A feeling of doubt causing them to question the meaning and values in their lives. This research has shown that caregivers needed family support, friends, social welfare, and the help of their religion to meet their spiritual needs in coping within the final stages of life and death. The findings of this study could assist health professionals to detect the spiritual distress of ethnic-Chinese patients and caregivers in the context of their cultural or religious background as early as possible.

Keywords: advanced cancer, Buddhism, Confucianism, Taoism, qualitative research, spiritual distress

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Authors: Ariadna Gassiot, Raquel Camprubi, Lluis Coromina

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Creative tourism involves the participation of tourists in the co-creation of their own experiences in a tourism destination. Consequently, creative tourists move from a passive behavior to an active behavior, and tourism destinations address this type of tourism by changing the scenario and making tourists learn and participate while they travel instead of merely offering tourism products and services to them. In creative tourism experiences, tourists are in close contact with locals and their culture. In destinations where culture (i.e. food, heritage, etc.) is the basis of their offer, such as Girona, Spain, tourism stakeholders must especially consider, analyze, and further foster the co-creation of authentic tourism experiences. They should focus on discovering more about these experiences, their main attributes, visitors’ opinions, etc. Creative tourists do not only participate while they travel around the world, but they also have and active post-travel behavior. They feel free to write about tourism experiences in different channels. User-generated content becomes crucial for any tourism destination when analyzing the market, making decisions, planning strategies, and when addressing issues, such as their reputation and performance. Sentiment analysis is a methodology used to automatically analyze semantic relationships and meanings in texts, so it is a way to extract tourists’ emotions and feelings. Tourists normally express their views and opinions regarding tourism products and services. They may express positive, neutral or negative feelings towards these products or services. For example, they may express anger, love, hate, sadness or joy towards tourism services and products. They may also express feelings through verbs, nouns, adverbs, adjectives, among others. Sentiment analysis may help tourism professionals in a range of areas, from marketing to customer service. For example, sentiment analysis allows tourism stakeholders to forecast tourism expenditure and tourist arrivals, or to analyze tourists’ profile. While there is an increasing presence of creativity in tourists’ experiences, there is also an increasing need to explore tourists’ expressions about these experiences. There is a need to know how they feel about participating in specific tourism activities. Thus, the main objective of this study is to analyze the meanings, emotions and feelings that tourists express about their creative experiences in Girona, Spain. To do so, sentiment analysis methodology is used. Results show the diversity of tourists who actively participate in tourism in Girona. Their opinions refer both to tangible aspects (e.g. food, museums, etc.) and to intangible aspects (e.g. friendliness, nightlife, etc.) of tourism experiences. Tourists express love, likeliness and other sentiments towards tourism products and services in Girona. This study can help tourism stakeholders in understanding tourists’ experiences and feelings. Consequently, they can offer more customized products and services and they can efficiently make them participate in the co-creation of their own tourism experiences.

Keywords: creative tourism, sentiment analysis, text mining, user-generated content

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Authors: Ozgu Hafizoglu

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An analogy is an essential tool of human cognition that enables connecting diffuse and diverse systems with physical, behavioral, principal relations that are essential to learning, discovery, and innovation. The Cognitive Model of Analogy (CMA) leads and creates patterns of pathways to transfer information within and between domains in science, just as happens in the brain. The connectome of the brain shows how the brain operates with mental leaps between domains and mental hops within domains and the way how analogical reasoning mechanism operates. This paper demonstrates the CMA as an evolutionary approach to science, technology, and life. The model puts forward the challenges of deep uncertainty about the future, emphasizing the need for flexibility of the system in order to enable reasoning methodology to adapt to changing conditions in the new era, especially post-pandemic. In this paper, we will reveal how to draw an analogy to scientific research to discover new systems that reveal the fractal schema of analogical reasoning within and between the systems like within and between the brain regions. Distinct phases of the problem-solving processes are divided thusly: stimulus, encoding, mapping, inference, and response. Based on the brain research so far, the system is revealed to be relevant to brain activation considering each of these phases with an emphasis on achieving a better visualization of the brain’s mechanism in macro context; brain and spinal cord, and micro context: glia and neurons, relative to matching conditions of analogical reasoning and relational information, encoding, mapping, inference and response processes, and verification of perceptual responses in four-term analogical reasoning. Finally, we will relate all these terminologies with these mental leaps, mental maps, mental hops, and mental loops to make the mental model of CMA clear.

Keywords: analogy, analogical reasoning, brain connectome, cognitive model, neurons and glia, mental leaps, mental hops, mental loops

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Authors: S. Jeyarajan

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Concept of knowledge is discovered from conducted study for successive Competition in Sri Lankan Non-State Higher Educational Institutes. The Concept discovered out of collected Knowledge Management Practices from Emerald inside likewise reputed literatures and of Non-State Higher Educational sector. A test is conducted to reveal existences and its reason behind of these collected practices in Sri Lankan Non-State Higher Education Institutes. Further, unavailability of such study and uncertain on number of participants for data collection in the Sri Lankan context contributed selection of research method as qualitative method, which used attributes of Delphi Method to manage those likewise uncertainty. Data are collected under Dramaturgical Method, which contributes efficient usage of the Delphi method. Grounded theory is selected as data analysis techniques, which is conducted in intermixed discourse to manage different perspectives of data that are collected systematically through perspective and modified snowball sampling techniques. Data are then analysed using Grounded Theory Development Techniques in Intermix discourses to manage differences in Data. Consequently, Agreement in the results of Grounded theories and of finding in the Foreign Study is discovered in the analysis whereas present study conducted as Qualitative Research and The Foreign Study conducted as Quantitative Research. As such, the Present study widens the discovery in the Foreign Study. Further, having discovered reason behind of the existences, the Present result shows Concept for Knowledge from Sri Lankan Non-State sector to manage higher educational Institutes in successful manner.

Keywords: adherence of snowball sampling into perspective sampling, Delphi method in qualitative method, grounded theory development in intermix discourses of analysis, knowledge management for success of higher educational institutes

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Authors: A. N. Ghafar, O. A. Chaudhari, W. Oettel, P. Fontana

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This study is a part of the EU project GEOCOND-Advanced materials and processes to improve performance and cost-efficiency of shallow geothermal systems and underground thermal storage. In heat exchange boreholes, to improve the heat transfer between the pipes and the surrounding ground, the space between the pipes and the borehole wall is normally filled with geothermal grout. Traditionally, bentonite has been a crucial component in most commercially available geothermal grouts to assure the required stability and impermeability. The investigations conducted in the early stage of this project during the benchmarking tests on some commercial grouts showed considerable sensitivity of the rheological properties of the tested grouts to the mixing parameters, i.e., mixing time and velocity. Further studies on this matter showed that bentonite, which has been one of the important constituents in most grout mixes, was probably responsible for such behavior. Apparently, proper amount of shear should be applied during the mixing process to sufficiently activate the bentonite. The higher the amount of applied shear the more the activation of bentonite, resulting in change in the grout rheology. This explains why, occasionally in the field applications, the flow properties of the commercially available geothermal grouts using different mixing conditions (mixer type, mixing time, mixing velocity) are completely different than expected. A series of tests were conducted on the grout mixes, with and without bentonite, using different mixing protocols. The aim was to eliminate/reduce the sensitivity of the rheological properties of the geothermal grouts to the mixing parameters by replacing bentonite with polymeric (non-clay) stabilizers. The results showed that by replacing bentonite with a proper polymeric stabilizer, the sensitivity of the grout mix on mixing time and velocity was to a great extent diminished. This can be considered as an alternative for the developers/producers of geothermal grouts to provide enhanced materials with less uncertainty in obtained results in the field applications.

Keywords: flow properties, geothermal grout, mixing time, mixing velocity, rheological properties

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Authors: Tayo P. Ogundunmade, Adedayo A. Adepoju

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Terrorist attacks in liberal democracies bring about a few pessimistic results, for example, sabotaged public support in the governments they target, disturbing the peace of a protected environment underwritten by the state, and a limitation of individuals from adding to the advancement of the country, among others. Hence, seeking for techniques to understand the different factors involved in terrorism and how to deal with those factors in order to completely stop or reduce terrorist activities is the topmost priority of the government in every country. This research aim is to develop an efficient deep learning-based predictive model for the prediction of future terrorist activities in Nigeria, addressing low-quality prediction accuracy problems associated with the existing solution methods. The proposed predictive AI-based model as a counterterrorism tool will be useful by governments and law enforcement agencies to protect the lives of individuals in society and to improve the quality of life in general. A Heterogeneous Bayesian Neural Network (HETBNN) model was derived with Gaussian error normal distribution. Three primary transfer functions (HOTTFs), as well as two derived transfer functions (HETTFs) arising from the convolution of the HOTTFs, are namely; Symmetric Saturated Linear transfer function (SATLINS ), Hyperbolic Tangent transfer function (TANH), Hyperbolic Tangent sigmoid transfer function (TANSIG), Symmetric Saturated Linear and Hyperbolic Tangent transfer function (SATLINS-TANH) and Symmetric Saturated Linear and Hyperbolic Tangent Sigmoid transfer function (SATLINS-TANSIG). Data on the Terrorist activities in Nigeria gathered through questionnaires for the purpose of this study were used. Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Test Error are the forecast prediction criteria. The results showed that the HETFs performed better in terms of prediction and factors associated with terrorist activities in Nigeria were determined. The proposed predictive deep learning-based model will be useful to governments and law enforcement agencies as an effective counterterrorism mechanism to understand the parameters of terrorism and to design strategies to deal with terrorism before an incident actually happens and potentially causes the loss of precious lives. The proposed predictive AI-based model will reduce the chances of terrorist activities and is particularly helpful for security agencies to predict future terrorist activities.

Keywords: activation functions, Bayesian neural network, mean square error, test error, terrorism

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Authors: Mabel Usunobun Olanipekun, Henry Ogbemudia Omoregbee

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Anomalies such as water pipeline and hydraulic or petrochemical pipeline network leakages and bursts have significant implications for economic conditions and the environment. In order to ensure pipeline systems are reliable, they must be efficiently controlled. Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) have become a powerful network with critical infrastructure monitoring systems for water, oil and gas pipelines. The loss of water, oil and gas is inevitable and is strongly linked to financial costs and environmental problems, and its avoidance often leads to saving of economic resources. Substantial repair costs and the loss of precious natural resources are part of the financial impact of leaking pipes. Pipeline systems experts have implemented various methodologies in recent decades to identify and locate leakages in water, oil and gas supply networks. These methodologies include, among others, the use of acoustic sensors, measurements, abrupt statistical analysis etc. The issue of leak quantification is to estimate, given some observations about that network, the size and location of one or more leaks in a water pipeline network. In detecting background leakage, however, there is a greater uncertainty in using these methodologies since their output is not so reliable. In this work, we are presenting a scalable concept and simulation where a pressure-driven model (PDM) was used to determine water pipeline leakage in a system network. These pressure data were collected with the use of acoustic sensors located at various node points after a predetermined distance apart. We were able to determine with the use of correlation difference to determine the leakage point locally introduced at a predetermined point between two consecutive nodes, causing a substantial pressure difference between in a pipeline network. After de-noising the signal from the sensors at the nodes, we successfully obtained the exact point where we introduced the local leakage using the correlation difference model we developed.

Keywords: leakage detection, acoustic signals, pipeline network, correlation, wireless sensor networks (WSNs)

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Authors: Amir Gharavi, Mohamed Hassan, Amjad Shah

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The main characteristics of unconventional reservoirs include low-to ultra low permeability and low-to-moderate porosity. As a result, hydrocarbon production from these reservoirs requires different extraction technologies than from conventional resources. An unconventional reservoir must be stimulated to produce hydrocarbons at an acceptable flow rate to recover commercial quantities of hydrocarbons. Permeability for unconventional reservoirs is mostly below 0.1 mD, and reservoirs with permeability above 0.1 mD are generally considered to be conventional. The hydrocarbon held in these formations naturally will not move towards producing wells at economic rates without aid from hydraulic fracturing which is the only technique to assess these tight reservoir productions. Horizontal well with multi-stage fracking is the key technique to maximize stimulated reservoir volume and achieve commercial production. The main objective of this research paper is to investigate development options for a tight mature oilfield. This includes multistage hydraulic fracturing and spacing by building of reservoir models in the Reveal simulator to model potential development options based on sidetracking the existing vertical well. To simulate potential options, reservoir models have been built in the Reveal. An existing Petrel geological model was used to build the static parts of these models. A FBHP limit of 40bars was assumed to take into account pump operating limits and to maintain the reservoir pressure above the bubble point. 300m, 600m and 900m lateral length wells were modelled, in conjunction with 4, 6 and 8 stages of fracs. Simulation results indicate that higher initial recoveries and peak oil rates are obtained with longer well lengths and also with more fracs and spacing. For a 25year forecast, the ultimate recovery ranging from 0.4% to 2.56% for 300m and 1000m laterals respectively. The 900m lateral with 8 fracs 100m spacing gave the highest peak rate of 120m3/day, with the 600m and 300m cases giving initial peak rates of 110m3/day. Similarly, recovery factor for the 900m lateral with 8 fracs and 100m spacing was the highest at 2.65% after 25 years. The corresponding values for the 300m and 600m laterals were 2.37% and 2.42%. Therefore, the study suggests that longer laterals with 8 fracs and 100m spacing provided the optimal recovery, and this design is recommended as the basis for further study.

Keywords: unconventional, resource, hydraulic, fracturing

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Authors: Pepur Sandra, Bulog Ivana, Rimac Smiljanić Ana

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During the COVID-19 pandemic, stress and family financial fragility arose worldwide. Economic and health uncertainty created new pressure on the everyday life of families. The work from home, homeschooling, and care of other family members caused an increase in unpaid work and generated a new division of intrahousehold. As many times before, women have taken the higher burden. This paper analyzes family stress and finance during the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose that women's inclusion in paid and unpaid work and their financial literacy influence family finances. We build up our assumptions according to the two theories that explain intrahousehold family decision-making: traditional and barging models. The traditional model assumes that partners specialize in their roles in line with time availability. Consequently, partners less engaged in payable working activities will spend more time on domestic activities and vice versa. According to the bargaining model, each individual has their preferences, and the one with more household bargaining power, e.g., higher income, higher level of education, better employment, or higher financial knowledge, is likely to make family decisions and avoid unpaid work. Our results are based on an anonymous and voluntary survey of 869 valid responses from women older than 18 conducted in Croatia at the beginning of 2021. We found that families who experienced delays in settling current obligations before the pandemic were in a worse financial situation during the pandemic. However, all families reported problems settling current obligations during pandemic times regardless of their financial condition before the crisis. Women from families with financial issues reported higher levels of family and personal stress during the pandemic. Furthermore, we provide evidence that more women's unpaid work negatively affects the family's financial fragility during the pandemic. In addition, in families where women have better financial literacy and are more financially independent, families cope better with finance before and during pandemics.

Keywords: family financial fragility, stress, unpaid work, women's financial literacy

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Authors: Joseph Lillington, Tom Gout, Mike Harrison, Ian Farnan

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The vitrification of high-level nuclear waste within borosilicate glass and its incorporation within a multi-barrier repository deep underground is widely accepted as the preferred disposal method. However, for this to happen, any safety case will require validation that the initially localized radionuclides will not be considerably released into the near/far-field. Therefore, accurate mechanistic models are necessary to predict glass dissolution, and these should be robust to a variety of incorporated waste species and leaching test conditions, particularly given substantial variations across international waste-streams. Here, machine learning is used to predict glass material properties (viscosity, density) and glass leaching model parameters from large-scale industrial data. A variety of different machine learning algorithms have been compared to assess performance. Density was predicted solely from composition, whereas viscosity additionally considered temperature. To predict suitable glass leaching model parameters, a large simulated dataset was created by coupling MATLAB and the chemical reactive-transport code HYTEC, considering the state-of-the-art GRAAL model (glass reactivity in allowance of the alteration layer). The trained models were then subsequently applied to the large-scale industrial, experimental data to identify potentially appropriate model parameters. Results indicate that ensemble methods can accurately predict viscosity as a function of temperature and composition across all three industrial datasets. Glass density prediction shows reliable learning performance with predictions primarily being within the experimental uncertainty of the test data. Furthermore, machine learning can predict glass dissolution model parameters behavior, demonstrating potential value in GRAAL model development and in assessing suitable model parameters for large-scale industrial glass dissolution data.

Keywords: machine learning, predictive modelling, pattern recognition, radioactive waste glass

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Authors: Abd El-Aziz Khairy Abd El-Aal, Yuji Yagi, Heba Kamal

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In this study, an integrated multi-channel analysis of Surface Waves (MASW) technique is applied to explore the geotechnical parameters of subsurface layers at the Zafarana wind farm. Moreover, a seismic hazard procedure based on the extended deterministic technique is used to estimate the seismic hazard load for the investigated area. The study area includes many active fault systems along the Gulf of Suez that cause many moderate and large earthquakes. Overall, the seismic activity of the area has recently become better understood following the use of new waveform inversion methods and software to develop accurate focal mechanism solutions for recent recorded earthquakes around the studied area. These earthquakes resulted in major stress-drops in the Eastern desert and the Gulf of Suez area. These findings have helped to reshape the understanding of the seismotectonic environment of the Gulf of Suez area, which is a perplexing tectonic domain. Based on the collected new information and data, this study uses an extended deterministic approach to re-examine the seismic hazard for the Gulf of Suez region, particularly the wind turbine towers at Zafarana Wind Farm and its vicinity. Alternate seismic source and magnitude-frequency relationships were combined with various indigenous attenuation relationships, adapted within a logic tree formulation, to quantify and project the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. We select two desired exceedance probabilities (10 and 20%) that any of the applied scenarios may exceed the largest median ground acceleration. The ground motion was calculated at 50th, 84th percentile levels.

Keywords: MASW, seismic hazard, wind turbine towers, Zafarana wind farm

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Authors: Eitan Elaad

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The current study aimed to examine lying and pretended fairness by police personnel in sharing situations. Forty Israeli police officers and 40 laypeople from the community, all males, self-assessed their lie-telling ability, rated the frequency of their lies, evaluated the acceptability of lying, and indicated using rational and intuitive thinking while lying. Next, according to the ultimatum game procedure, participants were asked to share 100 points with an imagined target, either a male policeman or a male non-policeman. Participants allocated points to the target person bearing in mind that the other person must accept or reject their offer. Participants' goal was to retain as many points as possible, and to this end, they could tell the target person that fewer than 100 points were available for distribution. We defined concealment or lying as the difference between the available 100 points and the sum of points designated for sharing. Results indicated that police officers lied less to their fellow police targets than non-police targets, whereas laypeople lied less to non-police targets than imagined police targets. The ratio between the points offered to the imagined target person and the points endowed by the participant as available for sharing defined pretended fairness.Enhanced pretended fairness indicates higher motivation to display fair sharing even if the fair sharing is fictitious. Police officers presented higher pretended fairness to police targets than laypeople, whereas laypeople set off more fairness to non-police targets than police officers. We discussed the results concerning occupation solidarity and loyalty among police personnel. Specifically, police work involves uncertainty, danger and risk, coercive authority, and the use of force, which isolates the police from the community and dictates strong bonds of solidarity between police personnel. No wonder police officers shared more points (lied less) to fellow police targets than non-police targets. On the other hand, police legitimacy or the belief that the police are acting honestly in the best interest of the citizens constitutes citizens' attitudes toward the police. The relatively low number of points shared for distribution by laypeople to police targets indicates difficulties with the legitimacy of the Israeli police.

Keywords: lying, fairness, police solidarity, police legitimacy, sharing, ultimatum game

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Authors: H. Dakhlaoui, D. Ruelland, Y. Tramblay, Z. Bargaoui

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To evaluate the impact of climate change on water resources at the catchment scale, not only future projections of climate are necessary but also robust rainfall-runoff models that are able to be fairly reliable under changing climate conditions. This study aims at assessing the robustness of three conceptual rainfall-runoff models (GR4j, HBV and IHACRES) on five basins in Northern Tunisia under long-term climate variability. Their robustness was evaluated according to a differential split sample test based on a climate classification of the observation period regarding simultaneously precipitation and temperature conditions. The studied catchments are situated in a region where climate change is likely to have significant impacts on runoff and they already suffer from scarcity of water resources. They cover the main hydrographical basins of Northern Tunisia (High Medjerda, Zouaraâ, Ichkeul and Cap bon), which produce the majority of surface water resources in Tunisia. The streamflow regime of the basins can be considered as natural since these basins are located upstream from storage-dams and in areas where withdrawals are negligible. A 30-year common period (1970‒2000) was considered to capture a large spread of hydro-climatic conditions. The calibration was based on the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) criterion, while the evaluation of model transferability is performed according to the Nash-Suttfliff efficiency criterion and volume error. The three hydrological models were shown to have similar behaviour under climate variability. Models prove a better ability to simulate the runoff pattern when transferred toward wetter periods compared to the case when transferred to drier periods. The limits of transferability are beyond -20% of precipitation and +1.5 °C of temperature in comparison with the calibration period. The deterioration of model robustness could in part be explained by the climate dependency of some parameters.

Keywords: rainfall-runoff modelling, hydro-climate variability, model robustness, uncertainty, Tunisia

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Authors: Ana Campina, José Caramelo Gomes, Maria Emília Teixeira, Cristina Costa-Lobo

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In the pursuit of educational equity within Human Rights and European Fundamental Laws, the reality presents serious problems based on the psychologic, social understanding. Take into account the miscellaneous cultures in the global context and the nowadays numbers of Human mobilities, there are serious problems affecting the societies. This justifies the diagnosed need of a renew pedagogical and social education strategy to achieve the integration positive context preventing violence and discrimination, especially in Education systems. Consequently, it is important to have in mind the respect, acceptance, and integration of special needs students in all study degrees, as it is law but a complex reality. Despite the UN and International Human Rights, European Fundamental Chart, and all EU Treats, as the 28th EU State Member’s fundamental laws forecast the right of Education, the respect, the action and promotion of different cultures and the Education for ‘Difference’ integration – cultures; ideologies, Special Needs Students/Citizens – there are different and severe problems. Firstly, there are questions/contexts/problems not denounced by the lack of investments, political, social or ‘powers’ pressures, so, consequently, the authorities don’t have the action as laws demand and the transgressors haven´t any juridical or judicial punishment. Secondly, and our most important point: Governments, authorities and even victims hide these violations/violence/problems what disable the effective protection and law enforcement. Finally, the official and non-official strategies to get around the duties, break away the laws, failing the victims protection and consequently enable the problems increase dramatically. With this research, we observed that there are international Organizations/regions and States acting without respect to the Education right despite their democratic ideology and the generated external ‘image’ of law-abiding and Human Rights defenders. Nevertheless, it is urgent to develop a consistent Human Rights Education program aiming to protect, promote and implement the Right to be different and be respected by the law, the governments, institutions official and non-official, adapted to the needs in each society. The background of this research is the International and European laws, in accordance with the state’s legal systems. The approaches and the differences of the Education for Human and Fundamental Rights execution in the different EU countries, studying the pedagogy and social inclusion programs/strategies, with particular analysis of the Special Needs students. The results aim to construct a European Education profiling, with the governments and EU interventions need, as well as the panorama of the Special Needs Students effective integration achieving a renewed strategy to promote the respect of the Differences and an Inclusive School life.

Keywords: international human rights, culture, differences, European education profiling

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Authors: Nana Bolashvili, Vakhtang Geladze, Tamazi Karalashvili, Nino Machavariani, George Geladze, Davit Kartvelishvili, Ana Karalashvili

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Fresh water is the major natural resource of Georgia. The average perennial sum of the rivers' runoff in Georgia is 52,77 km³, out of which 9,30 km³ inflows from abroad. The major volume of transit river runoff is ascribed to the Chorokhi river. Average perennial runoff in Western Georgia is 41,52 km³, in Eastern Georgia 11,25 km³. The indices of Eastern and Western Georgia were calculated with 50% and 90% river runoff respectively, while the same index calculation for other countries is based on a 50% river runoff. Out of total volume of resources, 133,2 m³/sec (4,21 km³) has been geologically prospected by the State Commission on Reserves and Acknowledged as reserves available for exploitation, 48% (2,02 km³) of which is in Western Georgia and 2,19 km³ in Eastern Georgia. Considering acknowledged water reserves of all categories per capita water resources accounts to 2,2 m³/day, whereas high industrial category -0. 88 m³ /day fresh drinking water. According to accepted norms, the possibility of using underground water reserves is 2,5 times higher than the long-term requirements of the country. The volume of abundant fresh-water reserves in Georgia is about 150 m³/sec (4,74 km³). Water in Georgia is consumed mostly in agriculture for irrigation purposes. It makes 66,4% around Georgia, in Eastern Georgia 72,4% and 38% in Western Georgia. According to the long-term forecast provision of population and the territory with water resources in Eastern Georgia will be quite normal. A bit different is the situation in the lower reaches of the Khrami and Iori rivers which could be easily overcome by corresponding financing. The present day irrigation system in Georgia does not meet the modern technical requirements. The overall efficiency of their majority varies between 0,4-0,6. Similar is the situation in the fresh water and public service water consumption. Organization of the mentioned systems, installation of water meters, introduction of new methods of irrigation without water loss will substantially increase efficiency of water use. Besides new irrigation norms developed from agro-climatic, geographical and hydrological angle will significantly reduce water waste. Taking all this into account we assume that for irrigation agricultural lands in Georgia is necessary 6,0 km³ water, 5,5 km³ of which goes to Eastern Georgia on irrigation arable areas. To increase water supply in Eastern Georgian territory and its population is possible by means of new water reservoirs as the runoff of every river considerably exceeds the consumption volume. In conclusion, we should say that fresh water resources by which Georgia is that rich could be significant source for barter exchange and investment attraction. Certain volume of fresh water can be exported from Western Georgia quite trouble free, without bringing any damage to population and hydroecosystems. The precise volume of exported water per region/time and method/place of water consumption should be defined after the estimation of different hydroecosystems and detailed analyses of water balance of the corresponding territories.

Keywords: GIS, management, rivers, water resources

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Authors: Sergey V. Vinogradov

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Coastal communities are presently facing increased vulnerabilities due to rising sea levels and shifts in global climate patterns, a trend expected to escalate in the long run. To address the needs of government entities, the public sector, and private enterprises, there is an urgent need to thoroughly investigate, assess, and manage the present and projected risks associated with coastal flooding, including storm surges, sea level rise, and nuisance flooding. In response to these challenges, a practical approach to evaluating storm surge inundation risks has been developed. This methodology offers an integrated assessment of potential flood risk in targeted coastal areas. The physical modeling framework involves simulating synthetic storms and utilizing hydrodynamic models that align with projected future climate and ocean conditions. Both publicly available and site-specific data form the basis for a risk assessment methodology designed to translate inundation model outputs into statistically significant projections of expected financial and operational consequences. This integrated approach produces measurable indicators of impacts stemming from floods, encompassing economic and other dimensions. By establishing connections between the frequency of modeled flood events and their consequences across a spectrum of potential future climate conditions, our methodology generates probabilistic risk assessments. These assessments not only account for future uncertainty but also yield comparable metrics, such as expected annual losses for each inundation event. These metrics furnish stakeholders with a dependable dataset to guide strategic planning and inform investments in mitigation. Importantly, the model's adaptability ensures its relevance across diverse coastal environments, even in instances where site-specific data for analysis may be limited.

Keywords: climate, coastal, surge, risk

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Authors: Abdul Haq

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The goal of this research is to better understand how wind loads affect bridges and develop strategies for designing bridges that are more stable and resistant to wind. The effect of wind on bridges is essential to their safety and functionality, especially in areas that are prone to high wind speeds or violent wind conditions. The study looks at the aerodynamic forces and vibrations caused by wind and how they affect bridge construction. Part of the research method involves first understanding the underlying ideas influencing wind flow near bridges. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations are used to model and forecast the aerodynamic behaviour of bridges under different wind conditions. These models incorporate several factors, such as wind directionality, wind speed, turbulence intensity, and the influence of nearby structures or topography. The results provide significant new insights into the loads and pressures that wind places on different bridge elements, such as decks, pylons, and connections. Following the determination of the wind loads, the structural response of bridges is assessed. By simulating their dynamic behavior under wind-induced forces, Finite Element Analysis (FEA) is used to model the bridge's component parts. This work contributes to the understanding of which areas are at risk of experiencing excessive stresses, vibrations, or oscillations due to wind excitations. Because the bridge has inherent modes and frequencies, the study considers both static and dynamic responses. Various strategies are examined to maximize the design of bridges to withstand wind. It is possible to alter the bridge's geometry, add aerodynamic components, add dampers or tuned mass dampers to lessen vibrations, and boost structural rigidity. Through an analysis of several design modifications and their effectiveness, the study aims to offer guidelines and recommendations for wind-resistant bridge design. In addition to the numerical simulations and analyses, there are experimental studies. In order to assess the computational models and validate the practicality of proposed design strategies, scaled bridge models are tested in a wind tunnel. These investigations help to improve numerical models and prediction precision by providing valuable information on wind-induced forces, pressures, and flow patterns. Using a combination of numerical models, actual testing, and long-term performance evaluation, the project aims to offer practical insights and recommendations for building wind-resistant bridges that are secure, long-lasting, and comfortable for users.

Keywords: wind effects, aerodynamic forces, computational fluid dynamics, finite element analysis

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Authors: S. N. Susenburger, D. Boecker

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In the age of Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity (VUCA), where digital transformation is challenging long standing traditional hardware and manufacturing companies, innovation needs a different methodology, strategy, mindset, and culture. What used to be a mindset of scaling per quantity is now shifting to orchestrating ecosystems, platform business models and service bundles. While large corporations are trying to mimic the nimbleness and versatile mindset of startups in the core of their digital strategies, they’re at the frontier of facing one of the largest organizational and cultural changes in history. This paper elaborates on how a manufacturing giant transformed its Corporate Information Technology (IT) to enable digital and Internet of Things (IoT) business while establishing the mindset and the approaches of the Innovation Inside-Out/Outside-In Strategy. It gives insights into the core elements of an innovation culture and the tactics and methodologies leveraged to support the cultural shift and transformation into an IoT company. This paper also outlines the core elements for an innovation culture and how the persona 'Connected Engineer' thrives in the digital innovation environment. Further, it explores how tapping domain-focused ecosystems in vibrant innovative cities can be used as a part of the strategy to facilitate partner co-innovation. Therefore, findings from several use cases, observations and surveys led to conclusion for the strategy tandem of Innovation Inside-Out/Outside-In. The findings indicate that it's crucial in which phases and maturity level the Innovation Inside-Out/Outside-In Strategy is activated: cultural aspects of the business and the regional ecosystem need to be considered, as well as cultural readiness from management and active contributors. The 'not invented here syndrome' is a barrier of large corporations that need to be addressed and managed to successfully drive partnerships, as well as embracing co-innovation and a mindset shifting away from physical products toward new business models, services, and IoT platforms. This paper elaborates on various methodologies and approaches tested in different countries and cultures, including the U.S., Brazil, Mexico, and Germany.

Keywords: innovation management, innovation culture, innovation methodologies, digital transformation

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Authors: Neel K. Shah

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Passive flow control on aerofoils has largely been achieved through the use of protrusions such as vane-type vortex generators. Consequently, innovative flow-control concepts should be explored in an effort to improve current component performance. Therefore, experimental research has been performed at The University of Manchester to evaluate the flow-control effectiveness of a vortex generator made in the form of a surface indentation. The surface indentation has a trapezoidal planform. A spanwise array of indentations has been applied in a convergent orientation around the maximum-thickness location of the upper surface of a NACA-0015 aerofoil. The aerofoil has been tested in a two-dimensional set-up in a low-speed wind tunnel at an angle of attack (AoA) of 3° and a chord-based Reynolds number (Re) of ~2.7 x 105. The baseline model has been found to suffer from a laminar separation bubble at low AoA. The application of the indentations at 3° AoA has considerably shortened the separation bubble. The indentations achieve this by shedding up-flow pairs of streamwise vortices. Despite the considerable reduction in bubble length, the increase in leading-edge suction due to the shorter bubble is limited by the removal of surface curvature and blockage (increase in surface pressure) caused locally by the convergent indentations. Furthermore, the up-flow region of the vortices, which locally weakens the pressure recovery around the trailing edge of the aerofoil by thickening the boundary layer, also contributes to this limitation. Due to the conflicting effects of the indentations, the changes in the pressure-lift and pressure-drag coefficients, i.e., cl,p and cd,p, are small. Nevertheless, the indentations have improved cl,p and cd,p beyond the uncertainty range, i.e., by ~1.30% and ~0.30%, respectively, at 3° AoA. The wake measurements show that turbulence intensity and Reynolds stresses have considerably increased in the indented case, thus implying that the indentations increase the viscous drag on the model. In summary, the convergent indentations are able to reduce the size of the laminar separation bubble, but conversely, they are not highly effective in reducing cd,p at the tested Reynolds number.

Keywords: aerofoil flow control, laminar separation bubbles, low Reynolds-number flows, surface indentations

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Authors: Matthew Lee Turnbough

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In 2007 Spain began to experience the effects of a deep economic crisis, which would generate a situation characterised by instability and uncertainty. This has been an obstacle, especially acute for the youth of this country seeking to enter the workforce. As a result of the impact of COVID-19, the youth in Spain are now suffering the effects of a new crisis that has deepened an already fragile labour environment. In this paper, we analyse the discourses that have emerged from a precarious labour market, specifically from two companies dedicated to operating job portals and job listings in Spain, Job Today, and CornerJob. These two start-up businesses have developed mobile applications geared towards young adults in search of employment in the service sector, two of the companies with the highest user rates in Spain. Utilizing a discourse analysis approach, we explore the impact of individualization and how the process of psychologization may contribute to an increasing reliance on individual solutions to social problems. As such, we seek to highlight the expectations and demands that are placed upon young workers and the type of subjectivity that this dynamic could foster, all this within an unstable framework seemingly marked by chance, a context which is key for the emergence of individualization. Furthermore, we consider the extent to which young adults incorporate these discourses and the strategies they employ basing our analysis on the VULSOCU (New Forms of Socio-Existential Vulnerability, Supports, and Care in Spain) research project, specifically the results of nineteen in-depth interviews and three discussion groups with young adults in this country. Consequently, we seek to elucidate the argumentative threads rooted in the process of individualization and underline the implications of this dynamic for the young worker and his/her labour insertion while also identifying manifestations of the goddess of fortune as a representation of chance in this context. Finally, we approach this panorama of social change in Spain from the perspective of the individuals or young adults who find themselves immersed in this transition from one crisis to another.

Keywords: chance, crisis, discourses, individualization, work, youth

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Authors: Adi Gielgun-Katz, Alina S. Rusu

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In the last two decades, education systems worldwide have integrated new pedagogical methods and strategies in lesson plans, such as innovative technologies, social-emotional learning (SEL), gamification, mixed learning, multiple literacies, and many others. Visual language, such as photographs, is known to transcend cultures and languages, and it is commonly used by youth to express positions and affective states in social networks. Therefore, visual language needs more educational attention as a linguistic and communicative component that can create connectedness among the students and their teachers. Nowadays, when SEL is gaining more and more space and meaning in the area of academic improvement in relation to social well-being, and taking and sharing pictures is part of the everyday life of the majority of people, it becomes natural to add the visual language to SEL approach as a reinforcement strategy for connecting education to the contemporary culture and language of the youth. This article presents a program conducted in a high school class in Israel, which combines the five SEL with photography techniques, i.e., Social-Emotional Learning Visual Empowerments (SELVEs) program (experimental group). Another class of students from the same institution represents the control group, which is participating in the SEL program without the photography component. The SEL component of the programs addresses skills such as: troubleshooting, uncertainty, personal strengths and collaboration, accepting others, control of impulses, communication, self-perception, and conflict resolution. The aim of the study is to examine the effects of programs on the level of the five SEL aspects in the two groups of high school students: Self-Awareness, Social Awareness, Self-Management, Responsible Decision Making, and Relationship Skills. The study presents a quantitative assessment of the SEL programs’ impact on the students. The main hypothesis is that the students’ questionnaires' analysis will reveal a better understanding and improvement of the five aspects of the SEL in the group of students involved in the photography-enhanced SEL program.

Keywords: social-emotional learning, photography, education program, adolescents

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Authors: Wissal Ben Arfi, Lubica Hikkerova, Jean-Michel Sahut

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This study examines interfirm networks in the digital transformation era, and in particular, how tacit knowledge codification affects innovation success within digital platforms. Hence, one of the most important features of digital transformation and innovation process outcomes is the emergence of digital platforms, as an interfirm network, at the heart of open innovation. This research aims to illuminate how digital platforms influence inter-organizational innovation through virtual team interactions and knowledge sharing practices within an interfirm network. Consequently, it contributes to the respective strategic management literature on new product development (NPD), open innovation, industrial management, and its emerging interfirm networks’ management. The empirical findings show, on the one hand, that knowledge conversion may be enhanced, especially by the socialization which seems to be the most important phase as it has played a crucial role to hold the virtual team members together. On the other hand, in the process of socialization, the tacit knowledge codification is crucial because it provides the structure needed for the interfirm network actors to interact and act to reach common goals which favor the emergence of open innovation. Finally, our results offer several conditions necessary, but not always sufficient, for interfirm managers involved in NPD and innovation concerning strategies to increasingly shape interconnected and borderless markets and business collaborations. In the digital transformation era, the need for adaptive and innovative business models as well as new and flexible network forms is becoming more significant than ever. Supported by technological advancements and digital platforms, companies could benefit from increased market opportunities and creating new markets for their innovations through alliances and collaborative strategies, as a mode of reducing or eliminating uncertainty environments or entry barriers. Consequently, an efficient and well-structured interfirm network is essential to create network capabilities, to ensure tacit knowledge sharing, to enhance organizational learning and to foster open innovation success within digital platforms.

Keywords: interfirm networks, digital platform, virtual teams, open innovation, knowledge sharing

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Authors: Sahand Golmohammadi, Sana Hosseini Shirazi

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Because the status and mechanical parameters of discontinuities in the rock mass are included in the calculations, various methods of rock engineering classification are often used as a starting point for the design of different types of structures. The Q-system is one of the most frequently used methods for stability analysis and determination of support systems of underground structures in rock, including tunnel. In this method, six main parameters of the rock mass, namely, the rock quality designation (RQD), joint set number (Jn), joint roughness number (Jr), joint alteration number (Ja), joint water parameter (Jw) and stress reduction factor (SRF) are required. In this regard, in order to achieve a reasonable and optimal design, identifying the effective parameters for the stability of the mentioned structures is one of the most important goals and the most necessary actions in rock engineering. Therefore, it is necessary to study the relationships between the parameters of a system and how they interact with each other and, ultimately, the whole system. In this research, it has attempted to determine the most effective parameters (key parameters) from the six parameters of rock mass in the Q-system using the rock engineering system (RES) method to improve the relationships between the parameters in the calculation of the Q value. The RES system is, in fact, a method by which one can determine the degree of cause and effect of a system's parameters by making an interaction matrix. In this research, the geomechanical data collected from the water conveyor tunnel of Azad Dam were used to make the interaction matrix of the Q-system. For this purpose, instead of using the conventional methods that are always accompanied by defects such as uncertainty, the Q-system interaction matrix is coded using a technique that is actually a statistical analysis of the data and determining the correlation coefficient between them. So, the effect of each parameter on the system is evaluated with greater certainty. The results of this study show that the formed interaction matrix provides a reasonable estimate of the effective parameters in the Q-system. Among the six parameters of the Q-system, the SRF and Jr parameters have the maximum and minimum impact on the system, respectively, and also the RQD and Jw parameters have the maximum and minimum impact on the system, respectively. Therefore, by developing this method, we can obtain a more accurate relation to the rock mass classification by weighting the required parameters in the Q-system.

Keywords: Q-system, rock engineering system, statistical analysis, rock mass, tunnel

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Authors: Bliss Singhal

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Epilepsy is a prevalent neurological disorder affecting approximately 50 million individuals worldwide and 1.2 million Americans. There exist millions of pediatric patients with intractable epilepsy, a condition in which seizures fail to come under control. The occurrence of seizures can result in physical injury, disorientation, unconsciousness, and additional symptoms that could impede children's ability to participate in everyday tasks. Predicting seizures can help parents and healthcare providers take precautions, prevent risky situations, and mentally prepare children to minimize anxiety and nervousness associated with the uncertainty of a seizure. This research proposes a comprehensive framework to predict seizures in pediatric patients by evaluating machine learning algorithms on unimodal neuroimaging data consisting of electroencephalogram signals. The bandpass filtering and independent component analysis proved to be effective in reducing the noise and artifacts from the dataset. Various machine learning algorithms’ performance is evaluated on important metrics such as accuracy, precision, specificity, sensitivity, F1 score and MCC. The results show that the deep learning algorithms are more successful in predicting seizures than logistic Regression, and k nearest neighbors. The recurrent neural network (RNN) gave the highest precision and F1 Score, long short-term memory (LSTM) outperformed RNN in accuracy and convolutional neural network (CNN) resulted in the highest Specificity. This research has significant implications for healthcare providers in proactively managing seizure occurrence in pediatric patients, potentially transforming clinical practices, and improving pediatric care.

Keywords: intractable epilepsy, seizure, deep learning, prediction, electroencephalogram channels

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Authors: Canan Duzan

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For most language learners, mastery of the speaking skill is the proof of the mastery of the foreign language. On the other hand, the speaking skill is considered as the most difficult aspect of language learning to develop for both learners and teachers. Especially in countries like Turkey where exposure to the target language is minimum and resources and opportunities provided for language practice are scarce, teaching and learning to speak the language become a real struggle for teachers and learners alike. Data collected from students, instructors, faculty members and the business sector in needs analysis studies conducted previously at Middle East Technical University (METU) consistently revealed the need for addressing the problem of lack of confidence in speaking English. Action was taken during the design of the only EAP speaking course offered in Modern Languages Department since lack of confidence is considered to be a serious barrier for effective communication and causes learners to suffer from insecurity, uncertainty and fear. “Confidence building” served as the guiding principle in the syllabus design, nature of the tasks created for the course and the assessment procedures to help learners become more confident speakers of English. In order to see the effectiveness of the decisions made during the design phase of the course and whether students become more confident speakers upon completion of the course, a case study was carried out with 100 students at METU. A questionnaire including both Likert-Scale and open-ended items were administered to students to collect data and this data were analyzed using the SPSS program. Group interviews were also carried out to gain more insight into the effectiveness of the course in terms of building speaking confidence. This presentation will explore the specific actions taken to develop students’ confidence based on the findings of program evaluation studies and to what extent the students believe these actions to be effective in improving their confidence. The unique design of this course and strategies adopted for confidence building are highly applicable in other EAP contexts and may yield similar positive results.

Keywords: confidence, EAP, speaking, strategy

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Authors: Mehrdad Abkenari, Orod Zarrinkafsh, Mohsen Ramezan Shirazi

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Construction projects initiate in complicated dynamic environments and, due to the close relationships between project parameters and the unknown outer environment, they are faced with several uncertainties and risks. Success in time, cost and quality in large scale construction projects is uncertain in consequence of technological constraints, large number of stakeholders, too much time required, great capital requirements and poor definition of the extent and scope of the project. Projects that are faced with such environments and uncertainties can be well managed through utilization of the concept of risk management in project’s life cycle. Although the concept of risk is dependent on the opinion and idea of management, it suggests the risks of not achieving the project objectives as well. Furthermore, project’s risk analysis discusses the risks of development of inappropriate reactions. Since evaluation and prioritization of construction projects has been a difficult task, the network structure is considered to be an appropriate approach to analyze complex systems; therefore, we have used this structure for analyzing and modeling the issue. On the other hand, we face inadequacy of data in deterministic circumstances, and additionally the expert’s opinions are usually mathematically vague and are introduced in the form of linguistic variables instead of numerical expression. Owing to the fact that fuzzy logic is used for expressing the vagueness and uncertainty, formulation of expert’s opinion in the form of fuzzy numbers can be an appropriate approach. In other words, the evaluation and prioritization of construction projects on the basis of risk factors in real world is a complicated issue with lots of ambiguous qualitative characteristics. In this study, evaluated and prioritization the risk parameters and factors with fuzzy logy method by combination of three method DEMATEL (Decision Making Trial and Evaluation), ANP (Analytic Network Process) and TOPSIS (Technique for Order-Preference by Similarity Ideal Solution) on Construction Management.

Keywords: fuzzy logy, risk, prioritization, assessment

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Authors: Munaza Mubeen

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The colonial Urdu literature has played a significant role in uplifting the overall status of the Indians. Taking example of the Bhopal State, the contribution of the Royal ladies holds no match in the contemporary age. Similarly, the efforts of the Begamat-e-Bhopal in the field of education had been acknowledged across the Sub-continent. It had been noticed that with the downfall of the Mughal Empire at the hands of the British Raj, the local culture in the Indian sub-continent in general and in Bhopal State in proper got deteriorated. This led to uncertainty, chaos and an anti-British sentiment which created hatred against them in the entire sub-continent. Likely, in Bhopal State, the role of women in field of education also vanished. However, this change was felt by the ladies in the Royal Household where they struggled for restoration of the status quo with their personal efforts. The prominent contributors from the Royal household included Qudseya Begum, Nawab Sikander Begum, Nawab Shah Jahan Begum and Nawab Sultan Johan-they are known as Begamat-i-Bhopal. They established schools, colleges and universities to impart formal and non-formal education respectively. Their systematic approach and continued efforts constituted a dynamic aspect of women’ empowerment. Focused on the female education, however, one of the by-products of their efforts was an introduction of socio-cultural and politico-religious awareness among the middle class womenfolk. Unfortunately, the role of these Bagamat-i-Bhopal has been left untouched or ignored by the academic scholars. This study critically analyzed the role of Beghamat-i-Bhopal regarding female education in Hindustan in general and in Bhopal in particular. Similarly, the contribution of the contemporary writers in development of female education in Bhopal has also been discussed in this paper. This paper is based on the 'historico-textual' approach following structural reason which has established a justifiable argument. The researcher, therefore, has taken into consideration all the chronological nuances in order to accord greater visibility to the contents. The data has been described, analyzed and interpreted inclusively and in generalized manner.

Keywords: colonialism, Begamaat e Bhopal, female education, State of Bhopal

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Authors: Kimberley Kershaw, Denis Hyams-Ssekasi

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Although there is a wealth of information about refugees and Asylum seekers, Refugee job opportunities continue to be one of the most hotly contested areas and less researched within the social sciences. Refugees are a vital asset in the society due to their experiences, skills, and competences. However, society perceives them differently, and as such, their prior lived experiences are often underutilised. This research study gleans from the work conducted during the Refugee Employment Support Clinic delivered for 12 weeks within a University setting in the North West of England. The study is conducted using three perspectives, refugees, students, and researchers, allowing for identification of the challenges encountered by the refugees concerning job opportunities. Through the utilisation of the qualitative research method, the study has found that refugees experience a wide range of issues unrelated to their skills, prior experience, and education but rather due to the red tapes connected to their legal identity labelling. Refugees struggle to build reliable employment networks that appreciate and acknowledge their capabilities and talents, impacting their ability to navigate the labour market and classism. Notably, refugees are misunderstood within their new societies, and little care is taken to understand the unique struggles they face with respect to securing paid work in their industry or field of work due to their lack of experience in the UK. Unlike other European countries, it is evident that the UK has no strategic approach to enhancing the chances of paid or voluntary work for refugees. A clinic like this provided lenses for comprehending how refugees can be better supported with employment related opportunities. By creating a safe and conducive platform for honest and open discussion about employment and through collaborative approaches with local community agencies, doors were opened for social and professional networks to be built. The study concluded that there is a need for local communities and education establishments to be more aware of the prevailing challenges and in a position to support at all stages of their asylum claim in order for the perceptions of distrust and uncertainty around refugees to be minimised.

Keywords: refugees, employment, community, classism, education

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Authors: Pavel Borodkin, Nikolay Khrennikov, Azamat Gazetdinov

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The problem of ensuring of VVER type reactor equipment integrity is now most actual in connection with justification of safety of the NPP Units and extension of their service life to 60 years and more. First of all, it concerns old units with VVER-440 and VVER-1000. The justification of the VVER equipment integrity depends on the reliability of estimation of the degree of the equipment damage. One of the mandatory requirements, providing the reliability of such estimation, and also evaluation of VVER equipment lifetime, is the monitoring of equipment radiation loading parameters. In this connection, there is a problem of justification of such normative parameters, used for an estimation of the pressure vessel metal embrittlement, as the fluence and fluence rate (FR) of fast neutrons above 0.5 MeV. From the point of view of regulatory practice, a comparison of displacement per atom (DPA) and fast neutron fluence (FNF) above 0.5 MeV has a practical concern. In accordance with the Russian regulatory rules, neutron fluence F(E > 0.5 MeV) is a radiation exposure parameter used in steel embrittlement prediction under neutron irradiation. However, the DPA parameter is a more physically legitimate quantity of neutron damage of Fe based materials. If DPA distribution in reactor structures is more conservative as neutron fluence, this case should attract the attention of the regulatory authority. The purpose of this work was to show what radiation load parameters (fluence, DPA) on all VVER equipment should be under control, and give the reasonable estimations of such parameters in the volume of all equipment. The second task is to give the conservative estimation of each parameter including its uncertainty. Results of recently received investigations allow to test the conservatism of calculational predictions, and, as it has been shown in the paper, combination of ex-vessel measured data with calculated ones allows to assess unpredicted uncertainties which are results of specific unique features of individual equipment for VVER reactor. Some results of calculational-experimental investigations are presented in this paper.

Keywords: equipment integrity, fluence, displacement per atom, nuclear power plant, neutron activation measurements, neutron transport calculations

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Authors: Stavroula Stavropoulou-Tatla, Danyal Awal, Mohammad Ayaz Hossain

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The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic saw several countries issue guidance postponing all non-urgent diagnostic evaluations and operations, leading to an estimated backlog of 28 million cases worldwide and over 4 million in the UK alone. In an attempt to regulate the resumption of elective surgical activity, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) introduced the ‘COVID-19 rapid guideline [NG179]’. This project aimed to increase healthcare staff knowledge of the aforementioned guideline to a targeted score of 100% in the disseminated questionnaire within 3 months at the Royal Free Hospital. A standardized online questionnaire was used to assess the knowledge of surgical and medical staff at baseline and following each 4-week-long Plan-Study-Do-Act (PDSA) cycle. During PDSA1, the A4 visual summary accompanying the guideline was visibly placed in all relevant clinical areas and the full guideline was distributed to the staff in charge together with a short briefing on the salient points. PDSA2 involved brief small-group teaching sessions. A total of 218 responses was collected. Mean percentage scores increased significantly from 51±19% at baseline to 81±16% after PDSA1 (t=10.32, p<0.0001) and further to 93±8% after PDSA2 (t=4.9, p<0.0001), with 54% of participants achieving a perfect score. In conclusion, the targeted distribution of guideline printouts and visual aids, combined with small-group teaching sessions, were simple and effective ways of educating healthcare staff about the new standards of elective surgical care at the time of COVID-19. This could facilitate the safe restoration of surgical activity, which is critical in order to mitigate the far-reaching consequences of surgical delays on an unprecedented scale during a time of great crisis and uncertainty.

Keywords: COVID-19, elective surgery, NICE guidelines, quality improvement

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