Search results for: confidence interval lengths
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2073

Search results for: confidence interval lengths

1053 Chemical Characteristics of Soils Based on Toposequence Under Wet Tropical Area Bukit Sarasah Padang

Authors: Y. Yulnafatmawita, H. Hermansah

Abstract:

Topography is a factor affecting soil characteristics. Chemical characteristics of a soil is a factor determining the productivity of the land. A research was conducted in Bukit Sarasah Padang, an area receiving > 5000 mm rainfall annually. The purpose of this research was to determine the chemical characteristics of soils at sequence topography in hill-slope of Bukit Sarasah. Soils were sampled at 3 different altitudes in the research area from 315 m – 515 m asl with 100 m interval. At each location, soil samples were taken from two depths (0-20 cm and 30-50 cm) for soil chemical characteristics (pH, CEC, organic-C, N-total, C/N, Ca-, Mg-, K-, Na-, Al-, and H-exchangeable). Based on the data resulted, it was found that there was a tendency of decreasing soil organic matter (SOC) content by increasing location from 315 to 515 m asl as well as from the top 0-20 cm to 30-50 cm soil depth. The same tendency was also found for the CEC, pH, N-total, and C/N ratio of the soil. On the other hand, exchangeable-Al and -H tended to increase by increasing elevation in Bukit Sarasah. There was no significant difference found for the concentration of exchangeable cations among the elevations and between the depths. The soil chemical characteristics on the top 20 cm were generally better than those on 30-50 cm soil depth, however, different elevation did not gave significant difference of the concentration.

Keywords: soil chemical characteristics, soil depths, topo-sequence, wet tropical area

Procedia PDF Downloads 486
1052 Evaluating the Effectiveness of Science Teacher Training Programme in National Colleges of Education: a Preliminary Study, Perceptions of Prospective Teachers

Authors: A. S. V Polgampala, F. Huang

Abstract:

This is an overview of what is entailed in an evaluation and issues to be aware of when class observation is being done. This study examined the effects of evaluating teaching practice of a 7-day ‘block teaching’ session in a pre -service science teacher training program at a reputed National College of Education in Sri Lanka. Effects were assessed in three areas: evaluation of the training process, evaluation of the training impact, and evaluation of the training procedure. Data for this study were collected by class observation of 18 teachers during 9th February to 16th of 2017. Prospective teachers of science teaching, the participants of the study were evaluated based on newly introduced format by the NIE. The data collected was analyzed qualitatively using the Miles and Huberman procedure for analyzing qualitative data: data reduction, data display and conclusion drawing/verification. It was observed that the trainees showed their confidence in teaching those competencies and skills. Teacher educators’ dissatisfaction has been a great impact on evaluation process.

Keywords: evaluation, perceptions & perspectives, pre-service, science teachering

Procedia PDF Downloads 315
1051 Critical Success Factors of OCOP Business Model in Pattani Province, Thailand: A Qualitative Approach

Authors: Poonsuck Thatchaopas, Nik Kamariah Nik Mat, Nattakarn Eakuru

Abstract:

“One College One Product” OCOP business model is launched by the Vocational Education Commission to encourage college students to choose at least one product for business venture. However, the number of successful OCOP projects is still minimal. The objective of this paper is to identify the critical success factors needed to be a successful OCOP business entrepreneur. This study uses qualitative method by interviewing business partners of an OCOP business called Crispy Roti Krua Acheeva Brand (CRKAB). This project was initiated by three female alumni students of the CRKAB. The finding shows that the main critical success factors are self-confidence, creativity or innovativeness, knowledge, skills and perseverance. Additionally, they reiterated that the keys to business success are product quality, perceived price, promotion, branding, new packaging to increase sales and continuous developments. The results implies for a business SME to be successful, the company should have credible partners and effective marketing plan.

Keywords: new entrepreneurship student model, business incubator, food industry, Pattani Province, Thailand

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1050 Electrochemical Behavior and Cathodic Stripping Voltammetric Determination of Dianabol Steroid in Urine at Bare Glassy Carbon Paste Electrode

Authors: N. Al-Orfi, M. S. El-Shahawi, A. S. Bashammakh

Abstract:

The electrochemical response of glassy carbon electrode (GCE) for the sensitive and selective determination of dianabol steroid (DS) in phosphate, Britton-Robinson (B-R) and HEPES buffers of pH 2.0 - 11, 2.0 - 11 and 6.2 - 8.0, respectively using cyclic voltammetry (CV) and differential pulse- adsorptive cathodic stripping voltammetry (DP-CSV) at bare GCE was studied. The dependence of the CV response of the developed cathodic peak potential (Ep, c), peak current (ip, c) and the current function (ip, c / υ1/2) on the scan rate (υ) at the bare GCE revealed the occurrence of electrode coupled chemical reaction of EC type mechanism. The selectivity of the proposed method was assessed in the presence of high concentrations of major interfering species e.g. uric acid, ascorbic acid, citric acid, glucose, fructose, sucrose, starch and ions Na+, K+, PO4-3, NO3- and SO42-. The recovery of the method was not significant where t(critical)=2.20 > texp=1.81-1.93 at 95% confidence. The analytical application of the sensor for the quantification of DS in biological fluids as urine was investigated. The results were demonstrated as recovery percentages in the range 95±2.5-97±4.7% with relative standard deviation (RSD) of 0.5-1.5%.

Keywords: dianabol, determination, modified electrode, urine

Procedia PDF Downloads 273
1049 Does Operating Cash Flow Really Matter in Value Relevance? A Recent Empirical Analysis on the Largest European Companies

Authors: Francesco Paolone

Abstract:

This paper investigates the role of Operating Cash Flow (OCF) and accruals in firm valuation analyzing financial statement information from the largest European companies and evaluating their relation to firm market value. Using a dataset of 500 largest European companies in 2018, the study investigates the relative value-relevance of equity, net income and operating cash flow (OCF). Findings show that the cash flow measure has the same explanatory power and intensity as equity and earnings to explain the market value. This study contributes to the debate on the value relevance of OCF incremental to book value and earnings. It also extends the literature, showing that OCF has information content (value relevance) superior to earnings and book value in the main European markets (Bepari et al., 2013). Finally, the study provides a support that accounting method choice may confuse investors, who have reduced confidence in accounting earnings and book value; in other words, nowadays European investors rely more on cash flows instead of accruals numbers.

Keywords: Cash Flow Statement, Value Relevance, Accounting, Financial Statement Analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 132
1048 Multisignature Schemes for Reinforcing Trust in Cloud Software-As-A-Service Services

Authors: Mustapha Hedabou, Ali Azougaghe, Ahmed Bentajer, Hicham Boukhris, Mourad Eddiwani, Zakaria Igarramen

Abstract:

Software-as-a-service (SaaS) is emerging as a dominant approach to delivering software. It encompasses a range of business, technical opportunities, issue, and challenges. Trustiness in the cloud services regarding the security and the privacy of the delivered data is the most critical issue with the SaaS model. In this paper, we survey the security concerns related to the SaaS model, and we propose the design of a trusted SaaS model that gives users more confidence into SaaS services by leveraging a trust in a neutral source code certifying authority. The proposed design is based on the use of the multisignature mechanism for signing the source code of the application service. In our model, the cloud provider acts as a root of trust by ensuring the integrity of the application service when it was running on its platform. The proposed design prevents insider attacks from tampering with application service before and after it was launched in a cloud provider platform.

Keywords: cloud computing, SaaS Platform, TPM, trustiness, code source certification, multi-signature schemes

Procedia PDF Downloads 275
1047 An Overview of Risk Types and Risk Management Strategies to Improve Financial Performance

Authors: Azar Baghtaghi

Abstract:

Financial risk management is critically important as it enables companies to maintain stability and profitability amidst market fluctuations and unexpected events. It involves the precise identification of risks that could impact investments, assets, and potential revenues. By implementing effective risk management strategies, companies can insure themselves against adverse market changes and prevent potential losses. In today's era, where markets are highly complex and influenced by various factors such as macroeconomic policies, exchange rate fluctuations, and natural disasters, the need for meticulous planning to cope with these uncertainties is more pronounced. Ultimately, financial risk management means being prepared for the future and the ability to sustain business in changing environments. A company capable of managing its risks not only achieves sustainable profitability but also gains the confidence of shareholders, investors, and business partners, enhancing its competitive position in the market. In this article, the types of financial risk and risk management strategies for improving financial performance were investigated. By identifying the risks stated in this article and their evaluation techniques, it is possible to improve the organization's financial performance.

Keywords: strategy, risk, risk management, financial performance.

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1046 Supply Chain Optimization through Vulnerability Control and Risk Prevention in Chicken Meat Use

Authors: Moise A. E., State G., Tudorache M., Custură I., Enea D. N., Osman (Defta) A., Drăgotoiu D.

Abstract:

This scientific paper explores risk management strategies in the food supply chain, with a focus on chicken raw materials, in the context of a company sourcing from the EU and non-EU. The aim of the paper is to adapt the requirements of international standards (IFS, BRC, QS, ITW, FSSC, ISO), proposing efficient methods to identify and remediate non-conformities and corrective and preventive actions. Defining the supply flow and acceptance steps promotes collaboration with suppliers to ensure the quality and safety of raw materials. To assess the risks of suppliers and raw materials, objective criteria are developed and vulnerabilities in the supply chain are analyzed, including the risk of fraud. Active monitoring of international alerts through RASFF helps to identify emerging risks quickly, and regular analysis of international trends and company performance enables continuous adaptation of risk management strategies. Implementing these measures strengthens food safety and consumer confidence in the final products supplied.

Keywords: food supply chain, international standards, quality and safety of raw materials, RASFF

Procedia PDF Downloads 51
1045 Attitudes of Nurses towards End-of-Life Care for Themselves

Authors: H. N. S. Silva, S. N. Silva

Abstract:

Introduction: 88.3% of physicians decided to choose a ‘no-code’ or a DNR order if hospitalized and would choose to die less aggressively at home. However, their wishes were mostly over ridden. Objective: To assess the attitudes of nurses towards the end-of-the-life care they would like to receive for themselves and their attitudes towards terminal illnesses. Methods: A mixed method approach was used. A closed and open-ended questionnaire was administered to 73 participants and 5 registered nurses, who have more than 10 years of experience, working in hospitals both in Sri Lanka and abroad, were interviewed. Results: 94.1% of the participants stated that they would like to die at home, spending their last hours at home surrounded by their loved ones and engaging in religious activities but 57.7% of unmarried nurse said they would agree on euthanasia if they had a terminal disease, and also 66.2% of them stated they would agree in DNR order if they happen to be admitted to the ICU, but 82.5% wanted to diagnose if they had a terminal illness or cancer but did not agree on euthanasia. Qualitative analysis confirmed the findings and revealed that despite having adequate confidence about the hospital care, nurses would choose to die at home, surrounded by their loved once and engaging in religious activities. Euthanasia was believed to be inappropriate as it is religiously incorrect and as death is a natural process. Conclusion: The perception of death among nurses depends on their religious belief.

Keywords: death, do not resuscitate, euthanasia, nurses

Procedia PDF Downloads 514
1044 Ultra Reliable Communication: Availability Analysis in 5G Cellular Networks

Authors: Yosra Benchaabene, Noureddine Boujnah, Faouzi Zarai

Abstract:

To meet the growing demand of users, the fifth generation (5G) will continue to provide services to higher data rates with higher carrier frequencies and wider bandwidths. As part of the 5G communication paradigm, Ultra Reliable Communication (URC) is envisaged as an important technology pillar for providing anywhere and anytime services to end users. Ultra Reliable Communication (URC) is considered an important technology that why it has become an active research topic. In this work, we analyze the availability of a service in the space domain. We characterize spatially available areas consisting of all locations that meet a performance requirement with confidence, and we define cell availability and system availability, individual user availability, and user-oriented system availability. Poisson point process (PPP) and Voronoi tessellation are adopted to model the spatial characteristics of a cell deployment in heterogeneous networks. Numerical results are presented, also highlighting the effect of different system parameters on the achievable link availability.

Keywords: URC, dependability and availability, space domain analysis, Poisson point process, Voronoi Tessellation

Procedia PDF Downloads 122
1043 Formulating Rough Approximations in Information Tables with Possibilistic Information

Authors: Michinori Nakata, Hiroshi Sakai

Abstract:

A rough set, which consists of lower and upper approximations, is formulated in information tables containing possibilistic information. First, lower and upper approximations on the basis of possible world semantics in the same way as Lipski did in the field of incomplete databases are shown in order to clarify fundamentals of rough sets under possibilistic information. Possibility and necessity measures are used, as is done in possibilistic databases. As a result, each object has certain and possible membership degrees to lower and upper approximations, which degrees are the lower and upper bounds. Therefore, the degree that the object belongs to lower and upper approximations is expressed by an interval value. And the complementary property linked with the lower and upper approximations holds, as is valid under complete information. Second, the approach based on indiscernibility relations, which is proposed by Dubois and Prade, are extended in three cases. The first case is that objects used to approximate a set of objects are characterized by possibilistic information. The second case is that objects used to approximate a set of objects with possibilistic information are characterized by complete information. The third case is that objects that are characterized by possibilistic information approximate a set of objects with possibilistic information. The extended approach create the same results as the approach based on possible world semantics. This justifies our extension.

Keywords: rough sets, possibilistic information, possible world semantics, indiscernibility relations, lower approximations, upper approximations

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1042 BOFSC: A Blockchain Based Decentralized Framework to Ensure the Transparency of Organic Food Supply Chain

Authors: Mifta Ul Jannat, Raju Ahmed, Al Mamun, Jannatul Ferdaus, Ritu Costa, Milon Biswas

Abstract:

Blockchain is an internet-based invention that is coveted in the permanent, scumbled record for its capacity to openly accept, record, and distribute transactions. In a traditional supply chain, there are no trustworthy participants for an organic product. Yet blockchain engineering may provide confidence, transparency, and traceability. Blockchain varies in how companies get real, checked, and lasting information from their supply chain and lock in customers. In an arrangement of cryptographic squares, Blockchain digitizes each connection by sparing it. No one person may alter the documents, and any alteration within the agreement is clear to all. The coming to the record is tamper proof and unchanging, offering a complete history of the object’s life cycle and minimizing opening for extorting. The primary aim of this analysis is to identify the underlying problem that the customer faces. In this post, we will minimize the allocation of fraud data through the ’Smart Contract’ and include a certificate of quality assurance.

Keywords: blockchain technology, food supply chain, Ethereum, smart contract, quality assurance, trustability, security, transparency

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1041 Analysis of the Performance of State Institutions From 2008-2013 in Pakistan

Authors: Mahrukh Shehzadi

Abstract:

Pakistan is a democratic republic but has spent much time under military rulers; after a few years of independence, Pakistan faced three martial laws in 1958, 1969, and 1977, and the latest in 1999 by General Musharraf. The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the politics, policies and overall performance of Pakistan People’s Party Government from 2008-2013. PPP won a significant victory in the elections of 2008. The co-chairman, Mr. Asif Ali Zardari, announced the end of the fourth dictatorship. It was for the first time in Pakistan’s history that an elected government completed its term (2008-2013). While the completion of its term is an achievement, the performance of the democratically-elected government – federal, provincial and local does not inspire much confidence. Poor governance, persistent confrontational relations between the executive and the judiciary, charges of corruption, and the incompetence of the political leadership to build consensus to combat terrorism continue to cast criticisms on the democratic process and the civilian regime’s capability to sustain democracy. In the present study, the researcher will try to describe and explain the public thinking pattern regarding the policies opted for by the PPP-led government and their impact on the people’s minds of Pakistan.

Keywords: democracy, performance, policies, state, manifesto

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1040 Psychological Stress and Accelerated Aging in SCI Patients - A Longitudinal Pilot Feasibility Study

Authors: Simona Capossela, Ramona Schaniel, Singer Franziska, Aquino Fournier Catharine, Daniel Stekhoven, Jivko Stoyanov

Abstract:

A spinal cord injury (SCI) is a traumatic life event that often results in ageing associated health conditions such as muscle mass decline, adipose tissue increase, decline in immune function, frailty, systemic chronic inflammation, and psychological distress and depression. Psychological, oxidative, and metabolic stressors may facilitate accelerated ageing in the SCI population with reduced life expectancy. Research designs using biomarkers of aging and stress are needed to elucidate the role of psychological distress in accelerated aging. The aim of this project is a feasibility pilot study to observe changes in stress biomarkers and correlate them with aging markers in SCI patients during their first rehabilitation (longitudinal cohort study). Biological samples were collected in the SwiSCI (Swiss Spinal Cord Injury Cohort Study) Biobank in Nottwil at 4 weeks±12 days after the injury (T1) and at the end of the first rehabilitation (discharge, T4). The "distress thermometer" is used as a selfassessment tool for psychological distress. Stress biomarkers, as cortisol and protein carbonyl content (PCC), and markers of cellular aging, such as telomere lengths, will be measured. 2 Preliminary results showed that SCI patients (N= 129) are still generally distressed at end of rehabilitation, however we found a statistically significant (p< 0.001) median decrease in distress from 6 (T1) to 5 (T4) during the rehabilitation. In addition, an explorative transcriptomics will be conducted on N=50 SCI patients to compare groups of persons with SCI who have different trajectories of selfreported distress at the beginning and end of the first rehabilitation after the trauma. We identified 4 groups: very high chronic stress (stress thermometer values above 7 at T1 and T4; n=14); transient stress (high to low; n=14), low stress (values below 5 at T1 and T4; n=14), increasing stress (low to high; n=8). The study will attempt to identify and address issues that may occur in relation to the design and conceptualization of future study on stress and aging in the SCI population.

Keywords: stress, aging, spinal cord injury, biomarkers

Procedia PDF Downloads 106
1039 The Way Digitized Lectures and Film Presence Coaching Impact Academic Identity: An Expert Facilitated Participatory Action Research Case Study

Authors: Amanda Burrell, Tonia Gary, David Wright, Kumara Ward

Abstract:

This paper explores the concept of academic identity as it relates to the lecture, in particular, the digitized lecture delivered to a camera, in the absence of a student audience. Many academics have the performance aspect of the role thrust upon them with little or no training. For the purpose of this study, we look at the performance of the academic identity and examine tailored film presence coaching for its contributions toward academic identity, specifically in relation to feelings of self-confidence and diminishment of discomfort or stage fright. The case is articulated through the lens of scholar-practitioners, using expert facilitated participatory action research. It demonstrates in our sample of experienced academics, all reported some feelings of uncertainty about presenting lectures to camera prior to coaching. We share how power poses and reframing fear, produced improvements in the ease and competency of all participants. We share exactly how this insight could be adapted for self-coaching by any academic when called to present to a camera and consider the relationship between this and academic identity.

Keywords: academic identity, digitized lecture, embodied learning, performance coaching

Procedia PDF Downloads 337
1038 Safety of Ports, Harbours, Marine Terminals: Application of Quantitative Risk Assessment

Authors: Dipak Sonawane, Sudarshan Daga, Somesh Gupta

Abstract:

Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is a very precise and consistent approach to defining the likelihood, consequence and severity of a major incident/accident. A variety of hazardous cargoes in bulk, such as hydrocarbons and flammable/toxic chemicals, are handled at various ports. It is well known that most of the operations are hazardous, having the potential of damaging property, causing injury/loss of life and, in some cases, the threat of environmental damage. In order to ensure adequate safety towards life, environment and property, the application of scientific methods such as QRA is inevitable. By means of these methods, comprehensive hazard identification, risk assessment and appropriate implementation of Risk Control measures can be carried out. In this paper, the authors, based on their extensive experience in Risk Analysis for ports and harbors, have exhibited how QRA can be used in practice to minimize and contain risk to tolerable levels. A specific case involving the operation for unloading of hydrocarbon at a port is presented. The exercise provides confidence that the method of QRA, as proposed by the authors, can be used appropriately for the identification of hazards and risk assessment of Ports and Terminals.

Keywords: quantitative risk assessment, hazard assessment, consequence analysis, individual risk, societal risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 80
1037 An Application for Risk of Crime Prediction Using Machine Learning

Authors: Luis Fonseca, Filipe Cabral Pinto, Susana Sargento

Abstract:

The increase of the world population, especially in large urban centers, has resulted in new challenges particularly with the control and optimization of public safety. Thus, in the present work, a solution is proposed for the prediction of criminal occurrences in a city based on historical data of incidents and demographic information. The entire research and implementation will be presented start with the data collection from its original source, the treatment and transformations applied to them, choice and the evaluation and implementation of the Machine Learning model up to the application layer. Classification models will be implemented to predict criminal risk for a given time interval and location. Machine Learning algorithms such as Random Forest, Neural Networks, K-Nearest Neighbors and Logistic Regression will be used to predict occurrences, and their performance will be compared according to the data processing and transformation used. The results show that the use of Machine Learning techniques helps to anticipate criminal occurrences, which contributed to the reinforcement of public security. Finally, the models were implemented on a platform that will provide an API to enable other entities to make requests for predictions in real-time. An application will also be presented where it is possible to show criminal predictions visually.

Keywords: crime prediction, machine learning, public safety, smart city

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1036 Genesis and Survival Chance of Autotriploid in Natural Diploid Population of Lilium lancifolium Thunb

Authors: Ji-Won Park, Jong-Wha Kim

Abstract:

Triploid L. lancifolium have a wide geographic distribution. By contrast, diploid L. lancifolium have limited distributions in the islands and coastal regions of the South and West Korean Peninsula and northern Tsushima Island, Japan. L. lancifolium diploids and triploids are not sympatrically distributed with other lily species or ploidy lines in West Sea and South Sea Islands of the Korean Peninsula. This observation raises the following questions: 'Why have autotriploid L. lancifolium never been observed in those isolated islands?', 'What mechanism excludes the occurrence of autotriploids, if they arise?'. To determine the occurrence and survival of triploid plants in natural diploid populations of tiger lily (Lilium lancifolium), ploidy analysis was conducted on natural open-pollinated seeds produced from plants grown on isolated islands, and on hybrid seeds produced by artificial crossing between plant populations originating on different Korean islands. Normal seeds were classified into five grades depending on the ratio of embryo/endosperm lengths, including 5/5, 4/5, 3/5, 2/5, and 1/5. Triploids were not observed among seedlings produced from natural open pollinations on isolated islands. Triploids were detected only in seedlings of underdeveloped seed grades(3/5 and 2/5) from artificial crosses between populations from different isolated islands. The triploid occurrence frequency was calculated as 0.0 for natural open-pollinated seedlings and 0.000582 for artificial crosses(6 triploids from 10,303 seedlings). Triploids were produced from crosses between isolated populations located at least 70 km apart; no triploids were detected in inter-population crosses of plants originating on the same islands. Triploid seedlings have very low viability in soil. We analyzed factors affecting triploid occurrence and survival in natural diploid populations of L. lancifolium. The results suggest that triploids originate from fertilization between plants that are genetically isolated due to geographical isolation and/or genotypic differences.

Keywords: Lilium lancifolium, autotriploid, natural population, genetic distance, 2n female gamete

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1035 Stock Market Prediction Using Convolutional Neural Network That Learns from a Graph

Authors: Mo-Se Lee, Cheol-Hwi Ahn, Kee-Young Kwahk, Hyunchul Ahn

Abstract:

Over the past decade, deep learning has been in spotlight among various machine learning algorithms. In particular, CNN (Convolutional Neural Network), which is known as effective solution for recognizing and classifying images, has been popularly applied to classification and prediction problems in various fields. In this study, we try to apply CNN to stock market prediction, one of the most challenging tasks in the machine learning research. In specific, we propose to apply CNN as the binary classifier that predicts stock market direction (up or down) by using a graph as its input. That is, our proposal is to build a machine learning algorithm that mimics a person who looks at the graph and predicts whether the trend will go up or down. Our proposed model consists of four steps. In the first step, it divides the dataset into 5 days, 10 days, 15 days, and 20 days. And then, it creates graphs for each interval in step 2. In the next step, CNN classifiers are trained using the graphs generated in the previous step. In step 4, it optimizes the hyper parameters of the trained model by using the validation dataset. To validate our model, we will apply it to the prediction of KOSPI200 for 1,986 days in eight years (from 2009 to 2016). The experimental dataset will include 14 technical indicators such as CCI, Momentum, ROC and daily closing price of KOSPI200 of Korean stock market.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, deep learning, Korean stock market, stock market prediction

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1034 A Comparative Study of Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and Extreme Value Theory (EVT) Model in Modeling Value-at-Risk (VaR)

Authors: Longqing Li

Abstract:

The paper addresses the inefficiency of the classical model in measuring the Value-at-Risk (VaR) using a normal distribution or a Student’s t distribution. Specifically, the paper focuses on the one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) of major stock market’s daily returns in US, UK, China and Hong Kong in the most recent ten years under 95% confidence level. To improve the predictable power and search for the best performing model, the paper proposes using two leading alternatives, Extreme Value Theory (EVT) and a family of GARCH models, and compares the relative performance. The main contribution could be summarized in two aspects. First, the paper extends the GARCH family model by incorporating EGARCH and TGARCH to shed light on the difference between each in estimating one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR). Second, to account for the non-normality in the distribution of financial markets, the paper applies Generalized Error Distribution (GED), instead of the normal distribution, to govern the innovation term. A dynamic back-testing procedure is employed to assess the performance of each model, a family of GARCH and the conditional EVT. The conclusion is that Exponential GARCH yields the best estimate in out-of-sample one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasting. Moreover, the discrepancy of performance between the GARCH and the conditional EVT is indistinguishable.

Keywords: Value-at-Risk, Extreme Value Theory, conditional EVT, backtesting

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1033 Online Creative Writing Courses for Algerian University Students: A Mixed-Methods Study of Benefits, Challenges, and Recommendations

Authors: Wafa Nouari

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The paper investigates the advantages and drawbacks of online creative writing courses for Algerian university students, particularly in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. The paper employs a mixed-methods approach, using both quantitative and qualitative data from surveys, interviews, and online course evaluations. The paper examines three online creative writing courses offered by Oxford University, Stanford University, and Coursera. The paper shows that online creative writing courses can improve the student's writing abilities, enthusiasm, and self-confidence, as well as introduce them to various literary forms and cultures. However, the paper also highlights some challenges and obstacles that the students encounter, such as technical problems, language difficulties, cultural gaps, and lack of feedback and interaction. The paper argues that online creative writing courses can be a useful alternative or addition to conventional classroom instruction, especially during the pandemic. The paper also offers some suggestions for enhancing the quality and effectiveness of online creative writing courses, such as giving more direction, support, and feedback to the students, as well as creating a sense of community and cooperation among them.

Keywords: online creative writing courses, Algerian university students, mixed methods approach, benefits and chanllenges

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1032 Case Study: The Impact of Creative Play on Children's Bilingualism

Authors: Mingxi Xiao

Abstract:

This case study focused on a bilingual child named Emma and her play. Emma was a four-year-old girl born in Australia while her parents were both Chinese. Emma could speak fluent English, while her Mandarin was not as good as her spoken English. With the research question to figure out whether creative play had an impact on children’s bilingualism, this case study mainly used the anecdotes method to observe Emma’s play and this report presented five observations of Emma, describing detailed information about her play and recording her language use. Based on Emma’s interests and daily activities, this case study chose her creative play for observation, which incorporates a whole range of activities from dancing to drawing, as well as playing instruments. From the five observations, it could be seen that Emma often mixed languages to help her express her meaning. It could be seen that Emma made an effort to use her bilingualism in her creative play. In other words, play encouraged Emma to use the two languages. In conclusion, the observations with Emma showed that although her Mandarin was not good enough, she displayed confidence in speaking both languages and had gradually shifted from mixing languages to code-switching. Recommendations were provided to support Emma’s bilingual abilities for further development in the end.

Keywords: bilingual, case study, code-switching, creative play, early childhood

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1031 Design and Analysis of Adaptive Type-I Progressive Hybrid Censoring Plan under Step Stress Partially Accelerated Life Testing Using Competing Risk

Authors: Ariful Islam, Showkat Ahmad Lone

Abstract:

Statistical distributions have long been employed in the assessment of semiconductor devices and product reliability. The power function-distribution is one of the most important distributions in the modern reliability practice and can be frequently preferred over mathematically more complex distributions, such as the Weibull and the lognormal, because of its simplicity. Moreover, it may exhibit a better fit for failure data and provide more appropriate information about reliability and hazard rates in some circumstances. This study deals with estimating information about failure times of items under step-stress partially accelerated life tests for competing risk based on adoptive type-I progressive hybrid censoring criteria. The life data of the units under test is assumed to follow Mukherjee-Islam distribution. The point and interval maximum-likelihood estimations are obtained for distribution parameters and tampering coefficient. The performances of the resulting estimators of the developed model parameters are evaluated and investigated by using a simulation algorithm.

Keywords: adoptive progressive hybrid censoring, competing risk, mukherjee-islam distribution, partially accelerated life testing, simulation study

Procedia PDF Downloads 347
1030 Bacteriological Safety of Sachet Drinking Water Sold in Benin City, Nigeria

Authors: Stephen Olusanmi Akintayo

Abstract:

Access to safe drinking water remains a major challenge in Nigeria, and where available, the quality of the water is often in doubt. An alternative to the inadequate clean drinking water is being found in treated drinking water packaged in electrically heated sealed nylon and commonly referred to as “sachet water”. “Sachet water” is a common thing in Nigeria as the selling price is within the reach of members of the low socio- economic class and the setting up of a production unit does not require huge capital input. The bacteriological quality of selected “sachet water” stored at room temperature over a period of 56 days was determined to evaluate the safety of the sachet drinking water. Test for the detection of coliform bacteria was performed, and the result showed no coliform bacteria that indicates the absence of fecal contamination throughout 56 days. Heterotrophic plate count (HPC) was done at an interval 14 days, and the samples showed HPC between 0 cfu/mL and 64 cfu/mL. The highest count was observed on day 1. The count decreased between day 1 and 28, while no growths were observed between day 42 and 56. The decrease in HPC suggested the presence of residual disinfectant in the water. The organisms isolated were identified as Staphylococcus epidermis and S. aureus. The presence of these microorganisms in sachet water is indicative for contamination during processing and handling.

Keywords: coliform, heterotrophic plate count, sachet water, Staphyloccocus aureus, Staphyloccocus epidermidis

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1029 An Economic Order Quantity Model for Deteriorating Items with Ramp Type Demand, Time Dependent Holding Cost and Price Discount Offered on Backorders

Authors: Arjun Paul, Adrijit Goswami

Abstract:

In our present work, an economic order quantity inventory model with shortages is developed where holding cost is expressed as linearly increasing function of time and demand rate is a ramp type function of time. The items considered in the model are deteriorating in nature so that a small fraction of the items is depleted with the passage of time. In order to consider a more realistic situation, the deterioration rate is assumed to follow a continuous uniform distribution with the parameters involved being triangular fuzzy numbers. The inventory manager offers his customer a discount in case he is willing to backorder his demand when there is a stock-out. The optimum ordering policy and the optimum discount offered for each backorder are determined by minimizing the total cost in a replenishment interval. For better illustration of our proposed model in both the crisp and fuzzy sense and for providing richer insights, a numerical example is cited to exemplify the policy and to analyze the sensitivity of the model parameters.

Keywords: fuzzy deterioration rate, price discount on backorder, ramp type demand, shortage, time varying holding cost

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1028 Displaying of GnRH Peptides on Bacteriophage T7 and Its Immunogenicity in Mice Model

Authors: Hai Xu, Yiwei Wang, Xi Bao, Bihua Deng, Pengcheng Li, Yu Lu

Abstract:

T7 phage could be used as a perfect vector for peptides expression and haptens presentation. T7-3GnRH recombinant phage was constructed by inserting three copies of Gonadotrophin Releasing Hormone (GnRH) gene into the multiple cloning site of T7 Select 415-1b phage genome. The positive T7-3GnRH phage was selected by using polymerase chain reaction amplification, and the p10B-3GnRH fusion protein was verified by SDS-PAGE and Western-blotting assay. T7-3GnRH vaccine was made and immunized with 1010 pfu in 0.2 ml per dose in mice. Blood samples were collected at an interval in weeks, and anti-GnRH antibody and testosterone concentrations were detected by ELISA and radioimmunoassay, respectively. The results show that T7-3GnRH phage particles confer a high immunogenicity to the GnRH-derived epitope. Moreover, the T7-3GnRH vaccine induced higher level of anti-GnRH antibody than ImproVac®. However, the testosterone concentrations in both immunized groups were at a similar level, and the testis developments were significantly inhibited compared to controls. These findings demonstrated that the anti-GnRH antibody could neutralize the endogenous GnRH to down regulate testosterone level and limit testis development, highlighting the potential value of T7-3GnRH in the immunocastration vaccine research.

Keywords: Gonadotrophin Releasing Hormone (GnRH), Immunocastration, T7 phage, Phage vaccine

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1027 Clinical Psychology Interns' Lived Experience with Suicidal Clients

Authors: Elaine Llantos Elayda, John Mark S. Distor

Abstract:

This paper explores the lived experiences of clinical psychology interns' who have encountered suicidal clients during their internship. Employing qualitative phenomenological investigation, semi-structured interviews were conducted and analyzed using interpretative phenomenological analysis (IPA). The study employed purposive sampling to gather valuable data. The results highlighted that those encounters with suicidal clients triggered various reactions among interns, leading to self-doubt and a sense of unpreparedness in handling such cases. Many interns struggled with managing their own emotions, especially when clients' traumas mirrored their own experiences. The study emphasized the importance of a robust support system in helping interns cope with the challenges of their work. Supervision and professional support played critical roles in interns' development, providing guidance and enhancing their confidence in managing distressing situations. Despite the challenges, the interns found purpose in witnessing significant client progress and emphasized the importance of self-care and ongoing training to prepare future clinicians for similar experiences.

Keywords: polytechnic university of the Philippines, clinical psychology interns, suicidal clients, clinical psychology training

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1026 Neutralizing Antibody Response against Inactivated FMDV Type O/IRN/2010 Vaccine by Electron Beam in BALB/C Mice

Authors: F. Motamedi Sedeh, Sh. Chahardoli, H. Mahravani, N. Harzandi, M. Sotoodeh, S. K. Shafaei

Abstract:

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is the most economically important disease of livestock. The aim of the study is inactivation of FMD virus type O/IRN/2010 by electron beam without antigenic changes as electron radio vaccine. The BALB/C mice were divided into three groups, each group containing five mice. Three groups of mice were inoculated with conventional vaccine and electron beam irradiated vaccine FMDV type O/IRN/2010 subcutaneously three weeks interval, the final group as negative control. The sera were separated from the blood samples of mice 14 days after last vaccination and tested for the presence of antibodies against FMDV type O/IRN/2010 by serum neutralization test. The Serum Neutralization Test (SNT) was carried out and antibody titration was calculated according to the Kraber protocol. The results of the SNT in three groups of mice showed the titration of neutralizing antibody in the vaccinated mice groups; electron radio vaccine and conventional vaccine were significantly higher than negative control group (P<0.05). Therefore, the radio vaccine is a good candidate to immunize animals against FMDV type O/IRN/2010.

Keywords: FMDV type O/IRN/2010, neutralizing antibody response, electron beam, radio vaccine

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1025 Effect of Chitosan and Ascorbic Acid Coating on the Refrigerated Tilapia Fish Fillet (Oreochromis niliticus)

Authors: Jau-Shya Lee, Rossita Shapawi, Vin Cent Pua

Abstract:

Tilapia is a popular cultured fresh-water fish in Malaysia. The highly perishable nature of the fish and increasing demand for high-quality ready-to-cook fish has intensified the search for better fish preservation method. Chitosan edible coating has been evident to extend the shelf life of fish fillet. This work was attempted to explore the potential of ascorbic acid in enhancing the shelf life extension ability of chitosan coated Tilapia fillet under refrigeration condition (4 ± 1oC). A 3 2 Factorial Design which comprising of three concentrations of chitosan (1, 1.5 and 2%) and two concentrations of ascorbic acids (2.5 and 5%) was used. The fish fillets were analyzed for total viable count, thiobarbituric acid (TBA) value, pH, aw and colour changes at 3-day interval over 15-day storage. The shelf life of chitosan coated (1.5% and 2%) fillet was increased to 15 days as compared to uncoated fish fillet which can only last for nine days. The inhibition of microbial growth of fish fillet was enhanced with the addition of 5% of ascorbic acids in 2% of chitosan. The TBA value, pH and aw for chitosan coated samples were found lower than that of uncoated sample (p<0.05). The colour stability of the fish fillet was also improved by the composite coating. Overall, 2% of chitosan and 5% of ascorbic acid formed the most effective coating to enhance the quality and to lengthen the shelf life of refrigerated Tilapia fillet.

Keywords: ascorbic acid, chitosan, edible coating, fish fillet

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1024 Costa and Mccrae's Neo-Pi Factor and Early Adolescents School Social Adjustment in Cross River State Nigeria

Authors: Peter Unoh Bassey

Abstract:

The study examined the influence of Costa and McCrae’s Neo-PI Factor and early adolescent’s school social adjustment in Cross River State, Nigeria. The research adopted the causal-comparative design also known as the ex-post facto with about one thousand and eighteen (1,018) students who were randomly selected from one stream of JSS 1 classes in 19 schools out of seventy-three (73) in the study area. Data were collected using two instruments one is the NEO-PI scale, and students school social adjustment questionnaire. Three research questions and three research hypotheses were postulated and tested at 0.05 level of significance. The analysis of data was carried out using both the independent t-test statistics and the one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). The analyzed result indicated that the five dimensions had a significant influence on students school social adjustment. A post hoc was equally carried out to show the relative significant difference among the study variables. In view of the above, it was recommended that teachers, parents and educational psychologists should be involved to enhance students the confidence to overcome their social adjustment problem.

Keywords: Costa and McCrae’s NEO-PI Factor, early adolescents, school, social adjustment

Procedia PDF Downloads 147