Search results for: life narrative history interviews
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 13092

Search results for: life narrative history interviews

2742 Indeterminacy: An Urban Design Tool to Measure Resilience to Climate Change, a Caribbean Case Study

Authors: Tapan Kumar Dhar

Abstract:

How well are our city forms designed to adapt to climate change and its resulting uncertainty? What urban design tools can be used to measure and improve resilience to climate change, and how would they do so? In addressing these questions, this paper considers indeterminacy, a concept originated in the resilience literature, to measure the resilience of built environments. In the realm of urban design, ‘indeterminacy’ can be referred to as built-in design capabilities of an urban system to serve different purposes which are not necessarily predetermined. An urban system, particularly that with a higher degree of indeterminacy, can enable the system to be reorganized and changed to accommodate new or unknown functions while coping with uncertainty over time. Underlying principles of this concept have long been discussed in the urban design and planning literature, including open architecture, landscape urbanism, and flexible housing. This paper argues that the concept indeterminacy holds the potential to reduce the impacts of climate change incrementally and proactively. With regard to sustainable development, both planning and climate change literature highly recommend proactive adaptation as it involves less cost, efforts, and energy than last-minute emergency or reactive actions. Nevertheless, the concept still remains isolated from resilience and climate change adaptation discourses even though the discourses advocate the incremental transformation of a system to cope with climatic uncertainty. This paper considers indeterminacy, as an urban design tool, to measure and increase resilience (and adaptive capacity) of Long Bay’s coastal settlements in Negril, Jamaica. Negril is one of the popular tourism destinations in the Caribbean highly vulnerable to sea-level rise and its associated impacts. This paper employs empirical information obtained from direct observation and informal interviews with local people. While testing the tool, this paper deploys an urban morphology study, which includes land use patterns and the physical characteristics of urban form, including street networks, block patterns, and building footprints. The results reveal that most resorts in Long Bay are designed for pre-determined purposes and offer a little potential to use differently if needed. Additionally, Negril’s street networks are found to be rigid and have limited accessibility to different points of interest. This rigidity can expose the entire infrastructure further to extreme climatic events and also impedes recovery actions after a disaster. However, Long Bay still has room for future resilient developments in other relatively less vulnerable areas. In adapting to climate change, indeterminacy can be reached through design that achieves a balance between the degree of vulnerability and the degree of indeterminacy: the more vulnerable a place is, the more indeterminacy is useful. This paper concludes with a set of urban design typologies to increase the resilience of coastal settlements.

Keywords: climate change adaptation, resilience, sea-level rise, urban form

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2741 A Literature Review on Bladder Management in Individuals with Spinal Cord Injury

Authors: Elif Ates, Naile Bilgili

Abstract:

Background: One of the most important medical complications that individuals with spinal cord injury (SCI) face are the neurogenic bladder. Objectives: To review methods used for management of neurogenic bladder and their effects. Methods: The study was conducted by searching CINAHL, Ebscohost, MEDLINE, Science Direct, Ovid, ProQuest, Web of Science, and ULAKBİM National Databases for studies published between 2005 and 2015. Key words used during the search included ‘spinal cord injury’, ‘bladder injury’, ‘nursing care’, ‘catheterization’ and ‘intermittent urinary catheter’. After examination of 551 studies, 21 studies which met inclusion criteria were included in the review. Results: Mean age of individuals in all study samples was 42 years. The most commonly used bladder management method was clean intermittent catheterization (CIC). Compliance with CIC was found to be significantly related to spasticity, maximum cystometric capacity, and the person performing catheterization (p < .05). The main reason for changing the existing bladder management method was urinary tract infections (UTI). Individuals who performed CIC by themselves and who voided spontaneously had better life quality. Patient age, occupation status and whether they performed CIC by themselves or not were found to be significantly associated with depression level (p ≤ .05). Conclusion: As the most commonly used method for bladder management, CIC is a reliable and effective method, and reduces the risk of UTI development. Individuals with neurogenic bladder have a higher prevalence of depression symptoms than the normal population.

Keywords: bladder management, catheterization, nursing, spinal cord injury

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2740 Hospital Beds: Figuring and Forecasting Patient Population Arriving at Health Care Research Institute, Illustrating Roemer's Law

Authors: Karthikeyan Srinivasan, Ranjana Singh, Yatin Talwar, Karthikeyan Srinivasan

Abstract:

Healthcare services play a vital role in the life of human being. The Setup of Hospital varies in wide spectrum of cost, technology, and access. Hospital’s of Public sector satisfies need of a common man to poorer, which can differ at private owned hospitals on cost and treatment. Patient assessing hospital frequently assumes spending time at the hospital is miserable and not aware of what is happening around them. Mostly they are queued up round the clock waiting to be admitted on hospital beds. The idea here is to highlight the role in admitting patient population of Outdoor as well as Emergency entering the Post Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh with available hospital beds. This study emphasizes the trend forecasting and acquiring beds needed. The conception “if patient population increases’ likewise increasing hospital beds advertently perceived. If tend to increase the hospital beds, thereby exploring budget, Manpower, space, and infrastructure make compulsion. This survey ideally draws out planning and forecasting beds to cater patient population in and around neighboring state of Chandigarh for admission at territory healthcare and research institute on available hospital beds. Executing healthcare services for growing population needs to know Roemer’s law indicating "in an insured population, a hospital bed built is a filled bed".

Keywords: admissions, average length of stay, bed days, hospital beds, occupancy rates

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2739 Measuring Development through Extreme Observations: An Archetypal Analysis Approach to Index Construction

Authors: Claudeline D. Cellan

Abstract:

Development is multifaceted, and efforts to hasten growth in all these facets have been gaining traction in recent years. Thus, producing a composite index that is reflective of these multidimensional impacts captures the interests of policymakers. The problem lies in going through a mixture of theoretical, methodological and empirical decisions and complexities which, when done carelessly, can lead to inconsistent and unreliable results. This study looks into index computation from a different and less complex perspective. Borrowing the idea of archetypes or ‘pure types’, archetypal analysis looks for points in the convex hull of the multivariate data set that captures as much information in the data as possible. The archetypes or 'pure types' are estimated such that they are convex combinations of all the observations, which in turn are convex combinations of the archetypes. This ensures that the archetypes are realistically observable, therefore achievable. In the sense of composite indices, we look for the best among these archetypes and use this as a benchmark for index computation. Its straightforward and simplistic approach does away with aggregation and substitutability problems which are commonly encountered in index computation. As an example of the application of archetypal analysis in index construction, the country data for the Human Development Index (HDI 2017) of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) is used. The goal of this exercise is not to replicate the result of the UNDP-computed HDI, but to illustrate the usability of archetypal analysis in index construction. Here best is defined in the context of life, education and gross national income sub-indices. Results show that the HDI from the archetypal analysis has a linear relationship with the UNDP-computed HDI.

Keywords: archetypes, composite index, convex combination, development

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2738 The Development of a Supplementary Course in the Social Studies, Religion and Culture Learning Area in Support of ASEAN Community and for Use in the Northeastern Border Area of Thailand

Authors: Angkana Tungkasamit, Ladda Silanoi , Teerachai Nethanomsak, Sitthipon Art-in, Siribhong Bhiasiri

Abstract:

As the date for the commencement of the ASEAN Community in Year 2015 is approaching, it has become apparent to all that there is an urgent need to get Thai people ready to meet the challenge of entering into the Community confidently. Our research team has been organized by the Faculty of Education, Khon Kaen University with the task of training administrators and teachers of the schools along the borders with Laos People’s Democratic Republic and the Kingdom of Cambodia to be able to develop supplementary courses on ASEAN Community. The course to be developed is based on the essential elements of the Community, i.e. general backgrounds of the member countries, the education, social and economic life in the Community and social skills needed for a good citizen of the ASEAN Community. The study, based on learning outcome and learning management process as a basis for inquiry, was a research and development in nature using participative action research as a means to achieve the goal of helping school administrators and teachers to learn how to develop supplementary courses to be used in their schools. A post-workshop evaluation of the outcome was made and found that, besides the successfully completed supplementary course, the participants were satisfied with their participation in the workshop because they had participated in every step of the development activity, from the beginning to the end.

Keywords: development of supplementary course, ASEAN community, social studies, northeastern border area of Thailand

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2737 Operational Characteristics of the Road Surface Improvement

Authors: Iuri Salukvadze

Abstract:

Construction takes importance role in the history of mankind, there is not a single thing-product in our lives in which the builder’s work was not to be materialized, because to create all of it requires setting up factories, roads, and bridges, etc. The function of the Republic of Georgia, as part of the connecting Europe-Asia transport corridor, is significantly increased. In the context of transit function a large part of the cargo traffic belongs to motor transport, hence the improvement of motor roads transport infrastructure is rather important and rise the new, increased operational demands for existing as well as new motor roads. Construction of the durable road surface is related to rather large values, but because of high transport-operational properties, such as high-speed, less fuel consumption, less depreciation of tires, etc. If the traffic intensity is high, therefore the reimbursement of expenses occurs rapidly and accordingly is increasing income. If the traffic intensity is relatively small, it is recommended to use lightened structures of road carpet in order to pay for capital investments amounted to no more than normative one. The road carpet is divided into the following basic types: asphaltic concrete and cement concrete. Asphaltic concrete is the most perfect type of road carpet. It is arranged in two or three layers on rigid foundation and will be compacted. Asphaltic concrete is artificial building material, which due stratum will be selected and measured from stone skeleton and sand, interconnected by bitumen and a mixture of mineral powder. Less strictly selected similar material is called as bitumen-mineral mixture. Asphaltic concrete is non-rigid building material and well durable on vertical loadings; it is less resistant to the impact of horizontal forces. The cement concrete is monolithic and durable material, it is well durable the horizontal loads and is less resistant related to vertical loads. The cement concrete consists from strictly selected, measured stone material and sand, the binder is cement. The cement concrete road carpet represents separate slabs of sizes from 3 ÷ 5 op to 6 ÷ 8 meters. The slabs are reinforced by a rather complex system. Between the slabs are arranged seams that are designed for avoiding of additional stresses due temperature fluctuations on the length of slabs. For the joint behavior of separate slabs, they are connected by metal rods. Rods provide the changes in the length of slabs and distribute to the slab vertical forces and bending moments. The foundation layers will be extremely durable, for that is required high-quality stone material, cement, and metal. The qualification work aims to: in order for improvement of traffic conditions on motor roads to prolong operational conditions and improving their characteristics. The work consists from three chapters, 80 pages, 5 tables and 5 figures. In the work are stated general concepts as well as carried out by various companies using modern methods tests and their results. In the chapter III are stated carried by us tests related to this issue and specific examples to improving the operational characteristics.

Keywords: asphalt, cement, cylindrikal sample of asphalt, building

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2736 An Audit of the Care in Recovery in Women after an Obstetrics Procedure

Authors: A. Haddick, A. Soltan

Abstract:

Background: During the period of recovery from an operative obstetric procedure, a woman is not only at risk of the life-threatening complications accompanying labour but also those associated with surgery and anaesthesia. It is speculated that women in the recovery area may receive a lower standard of care over a night shift. Thus obstetric recovery room care should be evaluated regularly to ensure all women receive an equally high standard of care 24/7. Aim: The aim of this audit was to undertake an audit in the Liverpool Women’s Hospital on the care in recovery, and to ascertain the extent to which the standards were met. This audit included the full audit cycle. Method: Standards were taken from the AAGBI, RCOA, NICE and CNST guidelines. There were 12 standards including appropriate documentation of vital signs and appropriate length of stay after surgery. Notes from 100 patients were analysed from March 2011-March 2012. There were 52 day notes and 48 night notes; these were accessed to gain the relevant data. In the re audit 35 notes were accessed from March 14-September 14. Results: The Liverpool Women’s Hospital met in total 10 of these standards. 10 were met during the day shift (83%) and 0 met during the night shift. In the re audit, there was a significant improvement in the standards met at night. 9 of the standards were met during the day and 7 of the standards were met at night. Clearly there are still improvements to be made. Conclusions: In the original audit, an audit action plan was formulated. This was following discussion of the results of this audit in an MDT meeting and presentation with a consultant Obstetrician, the head of Midwifery, the head of Obstetrics theatres and a recovery nurse. This audit will be further discussed in the Liverpool Woman's Hospital in July 2015 for further implementation for improvement.

Keywords: care, recovery, room, women

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2735 Determination of Acid Volatile Sulfides–Simultaneously Extracted Metal Relationship and Toxicity in Contaminated Sediment Layer in Mid-Black Sea Coasts

Authors: Arife Simsek, Gulfem Bakan

Abstract:

Sediment refers to the accumulation of varying amounts of sediment material in natural waters and the formation of bottom sludge. Sediments are the most important sources of pollutants as well as important future sources and carriers of pollutants. The accumulation of pollutants in sediments can cause serious environmental problems for the surrounding areas. Heavy metals (such as Cr, Cd, Al, Pb, Cu, Al, Zn) disrupt the water quality, affect the useful use of sediment, affect the ecosystem and have a toxic effect on the life of the sediment layer. This effect, which accumulates in the aquatic organisms, can enter the human body with the food chain and affect health seriously. Potential metal toxicity can be determined by comparing acid volatile sulfides (AVS) – simultaneously extracted metal (SEM) ratio in anoxic sediments to determine the effect of metals. Determination of the concentration of SEM and AVS is useful in screening sediments for potential toxicity due to the high metal concentration. In the case of SEM/AVS < 0 (anoxic sediment); in terms of AVS biomass production, its toxicity can be controlled. No toxic effects may be observed when SEM / AVS < 0. SEM / AVS > 0 (in the case of oxic sediment); metals with sensitive fraction such as Cu, As, Ag, Zn are stored. In this study, AVS and SEM measurements of sediment samples collected from five different points in the district of Tekkeköy in Samsun province were performed. The SEM - AVS ratio was greater than 0 in all samples. Therefore, it is necessary to test the toxicity against the risks that may occur in the ecosystem.

Keywords: AVS-SEM, Black Sea, heavy metal, sediment, toxicity

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2734 A Fast Calculation Approach for Position Identification in a Distance Space

Authors: Dawei Cai, Yuya Tokuda

Abstract:

The market of localization based service (LBS) is expanding. The acquisition of physical location is the fundamental basis for LBS. GPS, the de facto standard for outdoor localization, does not work well in indoor environment due to the blocking of signals by walls and ceiling. To acquire high accurate localization in an indoor environment, many techniques have been developed. Triangulation approach is often used for identifying the location, but a heavy and complex computation is necessary to calculate the location of the distances between the object and several source points. This computation is also time and power consumption, and not favorable to a mobile device that needs a long action life with battery. To provide a low power consumption approach for a mobile device, this paper presents a fast calculation approach to identify the location of the object without online solving solutions to simultaneous quadratic equations. In our approach, we divide the location identification into two parts, one is offline, and other is online. In offline mode, we make a mapping process that maps the location area to distance space and find a simple formula that can be used to identify the location of the object online with very light computation. The characteristic of the approach is a good tradeoff between the accuracy and computational amount. Therefore, this approach can be used in smartphone and other mobile devices that need a long work time. To show the performance, some simulation experimental results are provided also in the paper.

Keywords: indoor localization, location based service, triangulation, fast calculation, mobile device

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2733 Reducing Stigma and Discrimination among Islamic Religious Officers Towards People Living with HIV/AIDS in Malaysia

Authors: Hazlin Kadir Shahar, Razaleigh Muhamat Kawangit, Badlihisham Mohd Nasir, Rosmawati Mohamad Rasit

Abstract:

Stigma and discrimination have become the main topic of discussion when dealing with HIV/AIDS issues. They affect the daily life of People Living With HIV(PLHIV), families, friends and people around them indirectly. This paper discusses the potential measurement in helping to reduce stigma and discrimination existence among Islamic Religious Officers towards PLHIV in Malaysia. These people have been trained with special programmes to tackle the HIV/AIDS issues by using a manual, namely as ‘The Manual of Islam and HIV/AIDS’, specifically designed by the Islamic Development Department of Malaysia (JAKIM). The objectives of the training programmes are to give the accurate information about HIV/AIDS and to suggest ways on how to handle the PLHIV issues in Islamic perspective. This research used quantitative methodology by survey. A pilot test had been done over thirty (30) trained Islamic Religious Officers in Malaysia. The findings have shown that the trainings have given a positive impact for them as they managed to acquire the knowledge of HIV/AIDS from both primer and authorized sources such as medical practitioners, Muslim chaplains and social workers. The knowledge they have acquired from the trainings has guided them in changing their perception, thus helping to reduce their own stigma and discrimination towards PLHIV. The training programmes have given them opportunities to practice what they have learned through several outreach sessions as they have had the opportunities to approach PLHIV directly.

Keywords: Islamic religious officers, people with HIV, stigma and discrimination, training programmes

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2732 Investigation of Minor Actinide-Contained Thorium Fuel Impacts on CANDU-Type Reactor Neutronics Using Computational Method

Authors: S. A. H. Feghhi, Z. Gholamzadeh, Z. Alipoor, C. Tenreiro

Abstract:

Currently, thorium fuel has been especially noticed because of its proliferation resistance than long half-life alpha emitter minor actinides, breeding capability in fast and thermal neutron flux and mono-isotopic naturally abundant. In recent years, efficiency of minor actinide burning up in PWRs has been investigated. Hence, a minor actinide-contained thorium based fuel matrix can confront both proliferation resistance and nuclear waste depletion aims. In the present work, minor actinide depletion rate in a CANDU-type nuclear core modeled using MCNP code has been investigated. The obtained effects of minor actinide load as mixture of thorium fuel matrix on the core neutronics has been studiedwith comparingpresence and non-presence of minor actinide component in the fuel matrix.Depletion rate of minor actinides in the MA-contained fuel has been calculated using different power loads.According to the obtained computational data, minor actinide loading in the modeled core results in more negative reactivity coefficients. The MA-contained fuel achieves less radial peaking factor in the modeled core. The obtained computational results showed 140 kg of 464 kg initial load of minor actinide has been depleted in during a 6-year burn up in 10 MW power.

Keywords: minor actinide burning, CANDU-type reactor, MCNPX code, neutronic parameters

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2731 The Use of Social Media and Its Impact on the Learning Behavior of ESL University Students for Sustainable Education in Pakistan

Authors: Abdullah Mukhtar, Shehroz Mukhtar, Amina Mukhtar, Choudhry Shahid, Hafiz Raza Razzaq, Saif Ur Rahman

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to find out the negative and positive impacts of social media platforms on the attitude of learning and educational environment of student’s community. Social Media platforms have become a source of collaboration with one another throughout the globe making it a small world. This study performs focalized investigation of the adverse and constructive factors that have a strong impact not only on the psychological adjustments but also on the academic performance of peers. This study is a quantitative research adopting random sampling method in which the participants were the students of university. Researcher distributed 1000 questionnaires among the university students from different departments and asked them to fill the data on Lickert Scale. The participants are from the age group of 18-24 years. Study applies user and gratification theory in order to examine behavior of students practicing social media in their academic and personal life. Findings of the study reveal that the use of social media platforms in Pakistani context has less positive impact as compared to negative impacts on the behavior of students towards learning. The research suggests that usage of online social media platforms should be taught to students; awareness must the created among the users of social media by the means of seminars, workshops and by media itself to overcome the negative impacts of social media leading towards sustainable education in Pakistan.

Keywords: social media, positive impact, negative impact, learning behaviour

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2730 Simulation of the Impact of Street Tree Species on the Urban Microclimate: A Case Study of El-Houria Neighborhood in Mostaganem, Algeria

Authors: Bachir Nora

Abstract:

Integrating vegetation into urban environments is crucial for enhancing quality of life, particularly through microclimate regulation and the reduction of urban heat islands. This study investigates the impact of different street tree species on the urban microclimate in the El-Houria neighborhood of Mostaganem, Algeria, using the ENVI-met software for advanced environmental simulations. it focused on three tree species—Robinia pseudo-acacia, Populus alba, and Jacaranda mimosifolia—to evaluate their effectiveness in influencing key meteorological parameters, including air temperature, mean radiant temperature, surface temperature, and the predicted percentage of dissatisfied (PPD) thermal comfort index. Statistical analyses were conducted to compare these parameters across different tree species, ensuring the robustness of our findings. Our results indicate that Robinia pseudo-acacia is the most effective species, capable of reducing air temperature by up to 1°C and surface temperature by up to 12°C. These findings underscore the importance of strategically selecting tree species to mitigate the effects of climate change, improve thermal comfort, and reduce energy consumption in urban settings. The study offers valuable insights for urban planners and policymakers, providing practical guidance for sustainable urban design practices tailored to the Algerian context.

Keywords: heat islands, microclimate simulation, street tree alignment, sustainable urban design, thermal comfort.

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2729 Contraception in Guatemala, Panajachel and the Surrounding Areas: Barriers Affecting Women’s Contraceptive Usage

Authors: Natasha Bhate

Abstract:

Contraception is important in helping to reduce maternal and infant mortality rates by allowing women to control the number and spacing in-between their children. It also reduces the need for unsafe abortions. Women worldwide use contraception; however, the contraceptive prevalence rate is still relatively low in Central American countries like Guatemala. There is also an unmet need for contraception in Guatemala, which is more significant in rural, indigenous women due to barriers preventing contraceptive use. The study objective was to investigate and analyse the current barriers women face, in Guatemala, Panajachel and the surrounding areas, in using contraception, with a view of identifying ways to overcome these barriers. This included exploring the contraceptive barriers women believe exist and the influence of males in contraceptive decision making. The study took place at a charity in Panajachel, Guatemala, and had a cross-sectional, qualitative design to allow an in-depth understanding of information gathered. This particular study design was also chosen to help inform the charity with qualitative research analysis, in view of their intent to create a local reproductive health programme. A semi-structured interview design, including photo facilitation to improve cross-cultural communication, with interpreter assistance, was utilized. A pilot interview was initially conducted with small improvements required. Participants were recruited through purposive and convenience sampling. The study host at the charity acted as a gatekeeper; participants were identified through attendance of the charity’s women’s-initiative programme workshops. 20 participants were selected and agreed to study participation with two not attending; a total of 18 participants were interviewed in June 2017. Interviews were audio-recorded and data were stored on encrypted memory sticks. Framework analysis was used to analyse the data using NVivo11 software. The University of Leeds granted ethical approval for the research. Religion, language, the community, and fear of sickness were examples of existing contraceptive barrier themes recognized by many participants. The influence of men was also an important barrier identified, with themes of machismo and abuse preventing contraceptive use in some women. Women from more rural areas were believed to still face barriers which some participants did not encounter anymore, such as distance and affordability of contraceptives. Participants believed that informative workshops in various settings were an ideal method of overcoming existing contraceptive barriers and allowing women to be more empowered. The involvement of men in such workshops was also deemed important by participants to help reduce their negative influence in contraceptive usage. Overall, four recommendations following this study were made, including contraceptive educational courses, a gender equality campaign, couple-focused contraceptive workshops, and further qualitative research to gain a better insight into men’s opinions regarding women using contraception.

Keywords: barrier, contraception, machismo, religion

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2728 Texturing of Tool Insert Using Femtosecond Laser

Authors: Ashfaq Khan, Aftab Khan, Mushtaq Khan, Sarem Sattar, Mohammad A Sheikh, Lin Li

Abstract:

Chip removal processes are one of key processes of the manufacturing industry where chip removal is conducted by tool inserts of exceptionally hard materials. Tungsten carbide has been extensively used as tool insert for machining processes involving chip removal processes. These hard materials are generally fabricated by single step sintering process as further modification after fabrication in these materials cannot be done easily. Advances in tool surface modification have revealed that advantages such as improved tribological properties and extended tool life can be harnessed from the same tool by texturing the tool rake surface. Moreover, it has been observed that the shape and location of the texture also influences the behavior. Although texturing offers plentiful advantages the challenge lies in the generation of textures on the tool surface. Extremely hard material such as diamond is required to process tungsten carbide. Laser is unique processing tool that does not have a physical contact with the material and thus does not wear. In this research the potential of utilizing laser for texturing of tungsten carbide to develop custom features would be studied. A parametric study of texturing of Tungsten Carbide with a femtosecond laser would be conducted to investigate the process parameters and establish the feasible processing window. The effect of fluence, scan speed and number of repetition would be viewed in detail. Moreover, the mechanism for the generation of features would also be reviewed.

Keywords: laser, texturing, femtosecond, tungsten carbide

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2727 Real-Time Gesture Recognition System Using Microsoft Kinect

Authors: Ankita Wadhawan, Parteek Kumar, Umesh Kumar

Abstract:

Gesture is any body movement that expresses some attitude or any sentiment. Gestures as a sign language are used by deaf people for conveying messages which helps in eliminating the communication barrier between deaf people and normal persons. Nowadays, everybody is using mobile phone and computer as a very important gadget in their life. But there are some physically challenged people who are blind/deaf and the use of mobile phone or computer like device is very difficult for them. So, there is an immense need of a system which works on body gesture or sign language as input. In this research, Microsoft Kinect Sensor, SDK V2 and Hidden Markov Toolkit (HTK) are used to recognize the object, motion of object and human body joints through Touch less NUI (Natural User Interface) in real-time. The depth data collected from Microsoft Kinect has been used to recognize gestures of Indian Sign Language (ISL). The recorded clips are analyzed using depth, IR and skeletal data at different angles and positions. The proposed system has an average accuracy of 85%. The developed Touch less NUI provides an interface to recognize gestures and controls the cursor and click operation in computer just by waving hand gesture. This research will help deaf people to make use of mobile phones, computers and socialize among other persons in the society.

Keywords: gesture recognition, Indian sign language, Microsoft Kinect, natural user interface, sign language

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2726 Trusting the Eyes: The Changing Landscape of Eyewitness Testimony

Authors: Manveen Singh

Abstract:

Since the very advent of law enforcement, eyewitness testimony has played a pivotal role in identifying, arresting and convicting suspects. Reliant heavily on the accuracy of human memory, nothing seems to carry more weight with the judiciary than the testimony of an actual witness. The acceptance of eyewitness testimony as a substantive piece of evidence lies embedded in the assumption that the human mind is adept at recording and storing events. Research though, has proven otherwise. Having carried out extensive study in the field of eyewitness testimony for the past 40 years, psychologists have concluded that human memory is fragile and needs to be treated carefully. The question that arises then, is how reliable is eyewitness testimony? The credibility of eyewitness testimony, simply put, depends on several factors leaving it reliable at times while not so much at others. This is further substantiated by the fact that as per scientific research, over 75 percent of all eyewitness testimonies may stand in error; quite a few of these cases resulting in life sentences. Although the advancement of scientific techniques, especially DNA testing, helped overturn many of these eyewitness testimony-based convictions, yet eyewitness identifications continue to form the backbone of most police investigations and courtroom decisions till date. What then is the solution to this long standing concern regarding the accuracy of eyewitness accounts? The present paper shall analyze the linkage between human memory and eyewitness identification as well as look at the various factors governing the credibility of eyewitness testimonies. Furthermore, it shall elaborate upon some best practices developed over the years to help reduce mistaken identifications. Thus, in the process, trace out the changing landscape of eyewitness testimony amidst the evolution of DNA and trace evidence.

Keywords: DNA, eyewitness, identification, testimony, evidence

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2725 Barriers for Sustainable Consumption of Antifouling Products in the Baltic Sea

Authors: Bianca Koroschetz, Emma Mäenpää

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to study consumer practices and meanings of different antifouling methods in order to identify the main barriers for sustainable consumption of antifouling products in the Baltic Sea. The Baltic Sea is considered to be an important tourism area. More than 3.5 million leisure boaters use the sea for recreational boating. Most leisure boat owners use toxic antifouling paint to keep barnacles from attaching to the hull. Attached barnacles limit maneuverability and add drag which in turn increases fuel costs. Antifouling paint used to combat barnacles causes particular problems, as the use of these products continuously adds to the distribution of biocides in the coastal ecosystem and leads to the death of marine organisms. To keep the Baltic Sea as an attractive tourism area measures need to be undertaken to stop the pollution coming from toxic antifouling paints. The antifouling market contains a wide range of environment-friendly alternative products such as a brush wash for boats, hand scrubbing devices, hull covers and boat lifts. Unfortunately, not a lot of boat owners use these environment-friendly alternatives and instead prefer the use of the traditional toxic copper paints. We ask “Why is the unsustainable consumption of toxic paints still predominant when there is a big range of environment-friendly alternatives available? What are the barriers for sustainable consumption?” Environmental psychology has concentrated on developing models of human behavior, including the main factors that influence pro-environmental behavior. The main focus of these models was directed to the individual’s attitudes, principals, and beliefs. However, social practice theory emphasizes the importance to study practices, as they have a stronger explanatory power than attitude-behavior to explain unsustainable consumer behavior. Thus, the study focuses on describing the material, meaning and competence of antifouling practice in order to understand the social and cultural embeddedness of the practice. Phenomenological interviews were conducted with boat owners using antifouling products such as paints and alternative methods. This data collection was supplemented with participant observations in marinas. Preliminary results indicate that different factors such as costs, traditions, advertising, frequency of use, marinas and application of method impact on the consumption of antifouling products. The findings have shown that marinas have a big influence on the consumption of antifouling goods. Some marinas are very active in supporting the sustainable consumption of antifouling products as for example in Stockholm area several marinas subsidize costs for using environmental friendly alternatives or even forbid toxic paints. Furthermore the study has revealed that environmental friendly methods are very effective and do not have to be more expensive than painting with toxic paints. This study contributes to a broader understanding why the unsustainable consumption of toxic paints is still predominant when a big range of environment-friendly alternatives exist. Answers to this phenomenon will be gained by studying practices instead of attitudes offering a new perspective on environmental issues.

Keywords: antifouling paint, Baltic Sea, boat tourism, sustainable consumption

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2724 Blade Runner and Slavery in the 21st Century

Authors: Bülent Diken

Abstract:

This paper looks to set Ridley Scott’s original film Blade Runner (1982) and Denis Villeneuve’s Blade Runner 2049 (2017) in order to provide an analysis of both films with respect to the new configurations of slavery in the 21st century. Both Blade Runner films present a de-politicized society that oscillates between two extremes: the spectral (the eye, optics, digital communications) and the biopolitical (the body, haptics). On the one hand, recognizing the subject only as a sign, the society of the spectacle registers, identifies, produces and reproduces the subject as a code. At the same time, though, the subject is constantly reduced to a naked body, to bare life, for biometric technologies to scan it as a biological body or body parts. Being simultaneously a pure code (word without body) and an instrument slave (body without word), the replicants are thus the paradigmatic subjects of this society. The paper focuses first on the similarity: both films depict a relationship between masters and slaves, that is, a despotic relationship. The master uses the (body of the) slave as an instrument, as an extension of his own body. Blade Runner 2019 frames the despotic relation in this classical way through its triangulation with the economy (the Tyrell Corporation) and the slave-replicants’ dissent (rejecting their reduction to mere instruments). In a counter-classical approach, in Blade Runner 2049, the focus shifts to another triangulation: despotism, economy (the Wallace Corporation) and consent (of replicants who no longer perceive themselves as slaves).

Keywords: Blade Runner, the spectacle, bio-politics, slavery, imstrumentalisation

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2723 Locating the Role of Informal Urbanism in Building Sustainable Cities: Insights from Ghana

Authors: Gideon Abagna Azunre

Abstract:

Informal urbanism is perhaps the most ubiquitous urban phenomenon in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Ghana specifically. Estimates suggest that about two-fifths of urban dwellers (37.9%) in Ghana live in informal settlements, while two-thirds of the working labour force are within the informal economy. This makes Ghana invariably an ‘informal country.’ Informal urbanism involves economic and housing activities that are – in law or in practice – not covered (or insufficiently covered) by formal regulations. Many urban folks rely on informal urbanism as a survival strategy due to limited formal waged employment opportunities or rising home prices in the open market. In an era of globalizing neoliberalism, this struggle to survive in cities resonates with several people globally. For years now, there have been intense debates on the utility of informal urbanism – both its economic and housing dimensions – in developing sustainable cities. While some scholars believe that informal urbanism is beneficial to the sustainable city development agenda, others argue that it generates unbearable negative consequences and it symbolizes lawlessness and squalor. Consequently, the main aim of this research was to dig below the surface of the narratives to locate the role of informal urbanism in the quest for sustainable cities. The research geographically focused on Ghana and its burgeoning informal sector. Also, both primary and secondary data were utilized for the analysis; Secondary data entailed a synthesis of the fragmented literature on informal urbanism in Ghana, while primary data entailed interviews with informal stakeholders (such as informal settlement dwellers), city authorities, and planners. These two data sets were weaved together to discover the nexus between informal urbanism and the tripartite dimensions of sustainable cities – economic, social, and environmental. The results from the research showed a two-pronged relationship between informal urbanism and the three dimensions of sustainable city development. In other words, informal urbanism was identified to both positively and negatively affect the drive for sustainable cities. On the one hand, it provides employment (particularly to women), supplies households’ basic needs (shelter, health, water, and waste management), and enhances civic engagement. However, on the other hand, it perpetuates social and gender inequalities, insecurity, congestion, and pollution. The research revealed that a ‘black and white’ interpretation and policy approach is incapable of capturing the complexities of informal urbanism. Therefore, trying to eradicate or remove it from the urbanscape because it exhibits some negative consequences means cities will lose their positive contributions. The inverse also holds true. A careful balancing act is necessary to maximize the benefits and minimize the costs. Overall, the research presented a de-colonial theorization of informal urbanism and thus followed post-colonial scholars’ clarion call to African cities to embrace the paradox of informality and find ways to integrate it into the city-building process.

Keywords: informal urbanism, sustainable city development, economic sustainability, social sustainability, environmental sustainability, Ghana

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2722 Lunch Hour Concerts as a Strategy for Strengthening Student Performance Skills: University of Port Harcourt Experience

Authors: Rita A. Sunday-Kanu

Abstract:

This article reports on an evaluation of lunch hour concert and its effectiveness in improving undergraduate performance ability. In particular, it examines the aptitude of students in classroom applied music and their reaction/responses to true life concert situations. It further investigated factors affecting students’ confidence during performances, the relationship between stage fright and confidence building in regular concert participation. The Department of Music, University of Port Harcourt runs monthly lunch our concerts which are coordinated by undergraduates for the university community. Forty music students who have participated in or coordinated lunch hour concerts were chosen for this survey. Eight music lecturers who have supervised the monthly lunch hour concert were also chosen for this study. The attitude and view on the effectiveness of lunch hour concert in enhancing students’ performance skills were gotten through questionnaires survey, in-depth interview and participant observation to determine if classroom based applied music alone is as successful in grooming performance genius as the lunch hour concert. Result indicated that students’ participation in lunch hour concert did indeed broaden and strengthened their performance experiences. This observation led to a recommendation that regular community based concerts be considered as a standard for performance practices in the university curriculum since it serves as a preparatory platform for acquiring professional performance skills before graduation.

Keywords: lunch hour concert, performance, performing skill, community concert

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2721 Planning Quality and Maintenance Activities in a Closed-Loop Serial Multi-Stage Manufacturing System under Constant Degradation

Authors: Amauri Josafat Gomez Aguilar, Jean Pierre Kenné

Abstract:

This research presents the development of a self-sustainable manufacturing system from a circular economy perspective, structured by a multi-stage serial production system consisting of a series of machines under deterioration in charge of producing a single product and a reverse remanufacturing system constituted by the same productive systems of the first scheme and different tooling, fed by-products collected at the end of their life cycle, and non-conforming elements of the first productive scheme. Since the advanced production manufacturing system is unable to satisfy the customer's quality expectations completely, we propose the development of a mixed integer linear mathematical model focused on the optimal search and assignment of quality stations and preventive maintenance operation to the machines over a time horizon, intending to segregate the correct number of non-conforming parts for reuse in the remanufacturing system and thereby minimizing production, quality, maintenance, and customer non-conformance penalties. Numerical experiments are performed to analyze the solutions found by the model under different scenarios. The results showed that the correct implementation of a closed manufacturing system and allocation of quality inspection and preventive maintenance operations generate better levels of customer satisfaction and an efficient manufacturing system.

Keywords: closed loop, mixed integer linear programming, preventive maintenance, quality inspection

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2720 Mediated and Moderated Effects of Insecure Attachment Style and Depressions

Authors: Li-Ting Chen, Chih-Tao Cheng, I-Ping Huang, Jen-Ho Chang, Nien-Tzu Chang, Fei-Hsiu Hsiao

Abstract:

Background: Insecurity adult attachment style may be triggered by cancer threat, which in turn influences depression symptoms. Dispositional mindfulness may have benefits of insecure attachment on depression for colorectal patient transfer to survivor. Objective: This study examined the mediating and moderating effects of quality of life (QOL) and dispositional mindfulness on the relationship between insecure attachment style and depression symptoms. Methods: A cross-sectional study design was used. Data were collected using the QOL functional and symptoms (EORTC-C30 and EORTC CR29), dispositional mindfulness (FFMQ), Short form of Experience in Close Relationships Revised Questionnaire (SF-ECRRQ), and depressive symptoms (BDI-II scale). Results: Of the 90 CRC survivors who participated, the indirect effect of both ECR anxiety (β=0.23, CI=0.05-0.44) and ECR avoidance (β=0.12, CI=0.02-0.24) on depression were significantly mediated through EORTC-C29 colorectal symptoms. Three components of dispositional mindfulness (i.e., acting of awareness, non-judging, non-reactivity) as the moderator in the relationship between ECR anxiety and depressive symptoms. Acting of awareness was a moderator in the relationship between ECR avoidance and depressive symptoms. Conclusions: There are two pathways from insecure attachment to depression: through the mediator of colorectal symptoms and the moderator of dispositional mindfulness. Cancer symptom management and mindfulness practices could improve the impact of insecure attachment on depression among CRC patients in a post-treatment transition period.

Keywords: acting of awareness, attachment style, colorectal cancer, disposisitonal mindfulness, depression

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2719 Servant Leadership and Organisational Climate in South African Private Schools: A Qualitative Study

Authors: Christo Swart, Lidia Pottas, David Maree

Abstract:

Background: It is a sine qua non that the South African educational system finds itself in a profound crisis and that traditional school leadership styles are outdated and hinder quality education. New thinking is mandatory to improve the status quo and school leadership has an immense role to play to improve the current situation. It is believed that the servant leadership paradigm, when practiced by school leadership, may have a significant influence on the school environment in totality. This study investigates the private school segment in search of constructive answers to assist with the educational crises in South Africa. It is assumed that where school leadership can augment a supportive and empowering environment for teachers to constructively engage in their teaching and learning activities - then many challenges facing by school system may be subjugated in a productive manner. Aim: The aim of this study is fourfold. To outline the constructs of servant leadership which are perceived by teachers of private schools as priorities to enhance a successful school environment. To describe the constructs of organizational climate which are observed by teachers of private schools as priorities to enhance a successful school environment. To investigate whether the participants perceived a link between the constructs of servant leadership and organizational climate. To consider the process to be followed to introduce the constructs of SL and OC the school system in general as perceived by participants. Method: This study utilized a qualitative approach to explore the mediation between school leadership and the organizational climate in private schools in the search for amicable answers. The participants were purposefully selected for the study. Focus group interviews were held with participants from primary and secondary schools and a focus group discussion was conducted with principals of both primary and secondary schools. The interview data were transcribed and analyzed and identical patterns of coded data were grouped together under emerging themes. Findings: It was found that the practice of servant leadership by school leadership indeed mediates a constructive and positive school climate. It was found that the constructs of empowerment, accountability, humility and courage – interlinking with one other - are prominent of servant leadership concepts that are perceived by teachers of private schools as priorities for school leadership to enhance a successful school environment. It was confirmed that the groupings of training and development, communication, trust and work environment are perceived by teachers of private schools as prominent features of organizational climate as practiced by school leadership to augment a successful school environment. It can be concluded that the participants perceived several links between the constructs of servant leadership and organizational climate that encourage a constructive school environment and that there is a definite positive consideration and motivation that the two concepts be introduced to the school system in general. It is recommended that school leadership mentors and guides teachers to take ownership of the constructs of servant leadership as well as organizational climate and that public schools be researched and consider to implement the two paradigms. The study suggests that aspirant teachers be exposed to leadership as well as organizational paradigms during their studies at university.

Keywords: empowering environment for teachers and learners, new thinking required, organizational climate, school leadership, servant leadership

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2718 Access to the Community and Needed Supports among People with Physical Disabilities Receiving Long-Term Services and Supports in the United States

Authors: Stephanie Giordano, Eric Lam, Rosa Plasencia

Abstract:

An important piece of active aging is ensuring people have the right support to meet individual needs. Using NCI-AD data, we will look at measures of satisfaction with community access and needed services among people with physical disabilities receiving LTSS in the US. National Core Indicators—Aging and Disabilities (NCI-AD) is a voluntary effort by State Medicaid, aging, and disability agencies across the US to measure and track their own performance. NCI-AD uses a standardized survey – the Adult Consumer Survey (ACS), to hear directly from people receiving services about the quality of services and supports they receive. Data from the 2018-19 ACS found that compared to people without a physical disability, those with a physical disability were more likely to make choices about the services they receive, including when and how often they receive those services. Yet people with a physical disability were less likely to report they get enough assistance with everyday activities (e.g., shopping, housework, and taking medications) and self-care (e.g., dressing or bathing) and more likely to report that services and supports do not fully meet their needs and goals. A further breakdown by age shows that people 40-65 years old with a physical disability experienced even greater barriers to being as active in the community as they would like to be, indicating a need to better support people as they age with or into a disability. We will explore how these and other outcomes were affected by COVID-19, take a closer look at outcomes by demographics (e.g., race/ethnicity, gender, and mental health diagnoses) and discuss implications on the future needs of service systems.

Keywords: quality-of-life, long-term services and supports, person-centered, community

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2717 Identity and Economics: The Economic Welfare and Behavior of Romani People in Turkey

Authors: Sinem Bagce, Ensar Yilmaz

Abstract:

As a well-known fact, neoclassical economics excludes 'what is humanized' out of the literature for a long time. Rationality is defined in a very narrow context in the mainstream economics. Identity economics is one of the challenges raised against this tradition. The concept of 'identity' has been introduced to economics by Akerlof and Kranton (2000). The identity-based analysis mainly searches the links between economic welfare and decision of the actors in question related to ethnic, racial, gender and immigrant issues. This is more about discrimination and its repercussions on economic decisions of the relevant actors in a social sphere. In this article, we, in the context of identity economics, search the economic welfare and decisions of Romani people in Turkey. It is plainly observed that identity is clearly the major determinant for Romani people in economic and social life. They have their own distinctive rationality in making economic decisions. For a more scrutinized and academic analysis, we aim to trace their economic identity in their real social environment. This study is an extension of surveys conducted on Romani people in Turkey. Using data similar to SILC (Statistics for Income and Living Conditions) conducted on Romani people across the whole Turkey, we look for some questions about the income/welfare distribution among them, consumer preferences/habits, living conditions, occupations, education and as such. For this, by employing econometric and statistical analytical tools, we aim to obtain the answers for these questions. We think these analytic results will provide us to evaluate the links between their economic state and their identity more thoroughly. JEL Codes: D1, J 15, R23.

Keywords: identity economics, Romani people, discrimination, social identity and preferences

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2716 Role of Pulp Volume Method in Assessment of Age and Gender in Lucknow, India, an Observational Study

Authors: Anurag Tripathi, Sanad Khandelwal

Abstract:

Age and gender determination are required in forensic for victim identification. There is secondary dentine deposition throughout life, resulting in decreased pulp volume and size. Evaluation of pulp volume using Cone Beam Computed Tomography (CBCT)is a noninvasive method to evaluate the age and gender of an individual. The study was done to evaluate the efficacy of pulp volume method in the determination of age and gender.Aims/Objectives: The study was conducted to estimate age and determine sex by measuring tooth pulp volume with the help of CBCT. An observational study of one year duration on CBCT data of individuals was conducted in Lucknow. Maxillary central incisors (CI) and maxillary canine (C) of the randomly selected samples were assessed for measurement of pulp volume using a software. Statistical analysis: Chi Square Test, Arithmetic Mean, Standard deviation, Pearson’s Correlation, Linear & Logistic regression analysis. Results: The CBCT data of Ninety individuals with age range between 18-70 years was evaluated for pulp volume of central incisor and canine (CI & C). The Pearson correlation coefficient between the tooth pulp volume (CI & C) and chronological age suggested that pulp volume decreased with age. The validation of the equations for sex determination showed higher prediction accuracy for CI (56.70%) and lower for C (53.30%).Conclusion: Pulp volume obtained from CBCT is a reliable indicator for age estimation and gender prediction.

Keywords: forensic, dental age, pulp volume, cone beam computed tomography

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2715 Controlling the Oxygen Vacancies in the Structure of Anode Materials for Improved Electrochemical Performance in Lithium-Ion Batteries

Authors: Moustafa M. S. Sanad

Abstract:

The worsening of energy supply crisis and the exacerbation of climate change by environmental pollution problems have become the greatest threat to human life. One of the ways to confront these problems is to rely on renewable energy and its storage systems. Nowadays, huge attention has been directed to the development of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) as efficient tools for storing the clean energy produced by green sources like solar and wind energies. Accordingly, the demand for powerful electrode materials with excellent electrochemical characteristics has been progressively increased to meet fast and continuous growth in the market of energy storage systems. Therefore, the electronic and electrical properties of conversion anode materials for rechargeable lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) can be enhanced by introducing lattice defects and oxygen vacancies in the crystal structure. In this regard, the intended presentation will demonstrate new insights and effective ways for enhancing the electrical conductivity and improving the electrochemical performance of different anode materials such as MgFe₂O₄, CdFe₂O₄, Fe₃O₄, LiNbO₃ and Nb₂O₅. The changes in the physicochemical and morphological properties have been deeply investigated via structural and spectroscopic analyses (e.g., XRD, FESEM, HRTEM, and XPS). Moreover, the enhancement in the electrochemical properties of these anode materials will be discussed through Galvanostatic Cycling (GC), Cyclic Voltammetry (CV) and Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy (EIS) techniques.

Keywords: structure modification, cationic substitution, non-stoichiometric synthesis, plasma treatment, lithium-ion batteries

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2714 Seismo-Volcanic Hazards in Great Ararat Region, Eastern Turkey

Authors: Mehmet Salih Bayraktutan, Emre Tokmak

Abstract:

Great Ararat Volcano is the highest peak in South Caucasus Volcanic Plateau. Uplifted by Quaternary basaltic pyroclastic and lava flows. Numerous volcanic cones formed along with the tensional fractures under N-S compressional geodynamic framework. Basaltic flows have fresh surface morphology give ages of 650-680 K years. Hyperstene andesites constitute a major mass of Greater Ararat gives ages of 450-490 K years. During the early eruption period, predominately pyroclastics, cinder, lapilly-ash volcanic bombs were extruded. Third-period eruptions dominantly basaltic lava flows. Andesitic domes aligned along with the NW-SE striking fractures. Hyalo basalt and hornblende basaltic lavas are the latest lava eruptions. Hyalo-basaltic eruptions occurred via parasitic cones distributed far from the center. Parasitic cones are most common at the foot of Mount covered by recent NW flowing basaltic lava. Some of the cones are distributed on a circular pattern. One of the most hazardous disasters recorded in Eastern Turkey was July 1840 Cehennem Canyon Flood. Volcanic activities seismically triggered resulted in melting of glacier cap, mixed with ash and pyroclastics, flowed down along the Valley. Mud rich Slush urged catastrophically northwards, crossed Ars River and damned Surmeli Basin, forming reservoir behind. Ararat volcanoes are located on NW-SE striking Agri Fault Zone. Right lateral extensional faults, along which a series of andesitic domes formed. Great Ararat, in general strato-type volcano. This huge structure, developed in two main parts with different topographic and morphological features. The large lower base covers a widespread area composed of predominantly pyroclastics, ignimbrites, aglomerates, thick pumice, perlite deposits. Approximately 1/3 of the Crest by height formed of this basement. And 2/3 of the upper part with a conic- shape composed of basaltic lava flows. The active tectonic structure consists of three different patterns. The first network is radially distributed fractures formed during the last stage of lava eruptions. The second group of active faults striking in NW direction, and continue in N30W strike, formes Igdir Fault Zone. The third set of faults, dipping in the northwest with 75-80 degrees, strikes NE- SW across the whole Mount, slicing Great Ararat into four segments. In the upper stage of Cehennem Canyon, this set cutting volcanic layers caused numerous Waterfalls, Rock Avalanches, Mud Flows along the canyon, threatens the Village of Yanidogan, at the apex of flood deposits. Great Ararat Region has high seismo-tectonic risk and by occurrence frequency and magnitude, which caused in history caused heavy disasters, at villages surrounding the Ararat Basement.

Keywords: Eastern Turkey, geohazard, great ararat volcano, seismo-tectonic features

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2713 The Non-Stationary BINARMA(1,1) Process with Poisson Innovations: An Application on Accident Data

Authors: Y. Sunecher, N. Mamode Khan, V. Jowaheer

Abstract:

This paper considers the modelling of a non-stationary bivariate integer-valued autoregressive moving average of order one (BINARMA(1,1)) with correlated Poisson innovations. The BINARMA(1,1) model is specified using the binomial thinning operator and by assuming that the cross-correlation between the two series is induced by the innovation terms only. Based on these assumptions, the non-stationary marginal and joint moments of the BINARMA(1,1) are derived iteratively by using some initial stationary moments. As regards to the estimation of parameters of the proposed model, the conditional maximum likelihood (CML) estimation method is derived based on thinning and convolution properties. The forecasting equations of the BINARMA(1,1) model are also derived. A simulation study is also proposed where BINARMA(1,1) count data are generated using a multivariate Poisson R code for the innovation terms. The performance of the BINARMA(1,1) model is then assessed through a simulation experiment and the mean estimates of the model parameters obtained are all efficient, based on their standard errors. The proposed model is then used to analyse a real-life accident data on the motorway in Mauritius, based on some covariates: policemen, daily patrol, speed cameras, traffic lights and roundabouts. The BINARMA(1,1) model is applied on the accident data and the CML estimates clearly indicate a significant impact of the covariates on the number of accidents on the motorway in Mauritius. The forecasting equations also provide reliable one-step ahead forecasts.

Keywords: non-stationary, BINARMA(1, 1) model, Poisson innovations, conditional maximum likelihood, CML

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