Search results for: residual life prediction

Authors: Siham G. Farag

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The main objective of this paper is to provide a new methodology for road safety assessment in Oman through the development of suitable accident prediction models. GLM technique with Poisson or NBR using SAS package was carried out to develop these models. The paper utilized the accidents data of 31 un-signalized T-intersections during three years. Five goodness-of-fit measures were used to assess the overall quality of the developed models. Two types of models were developed separately; the flow-based models including only traffic exposure functions, and the full models containing both exposure functions and other significant geometry and traffic variables. The results show that, traffic exposure functions produced much better fit to the accident data. The most effective geometric variables were major-road mean speed, minor-road 85th percentile speed, major-road lane width, distance to the nearest junction, and right-turn curb radius. The developed models can be used for intersection treatment or upgrading and specify the appropriate design parameters of T- intersections. Finally, the models presented in this thesis reflect the intersection conditions in Oman and could represent the typical conditions in several countries in the middle east area, especially gulf countries.

Keywords: accidents prediction models (APMs), generalized linear model (GLM), T-intersections, Oman

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Authors: Saurabh Kumar

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In the fiercely competitive landscape of e-commerce, understanding and mitigating customer churn has become paramount for sustainable business growth. This paper presents a thorough investigation into the application of machine learning techniques for churn prediction in e-commerce, aiming to provide actionable insights for businesses seeking to enhance customer retention strategies. We conduct a comparative study of various machine learning algorithms, including traditional statistical methods and ensemble techniques, leveraging a rich dataset sourced from Kaggle. Through rigorous evaluation, we assess the predictive performance, interpretability, and scalability of each method, elucidating their respective strengths and limitations in capturing the intricate dynamics of customer churn. We identified the XGBoost classifier to be the best performing. Our findings not only offer practical guidelines for selecting suitable modeling approaches but also contribute to the broader understanding of customer behavior in the e-commerce domain. Ultimately, this research equips businesses with the knowledge and tools necessary to proactively identify and address churn, thereby fostering long-term customer relationships and sustaining competitive advantage.

Keywords: customer churn, e-commerce, machine learning techniques, predictive performance, sustainable business growth

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Authors: Mananya Meenakorn

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This research aims to investigate: (1) Relationship between the quality of working life and organizational commitment of municipal employee in Samut Sakhon Province. (2) To compare the quality of working life and the organizational commitment of municipal employee in Samut Sakhon Province by the gender, age, education, official experience, position, division, and income. This study is a quantitative research; data was collected by questionnaires distributed to the municipal employee in Samut Sakhon province for 241 sample by stratified random sampling. Data was analyzed by descriptive statistic including percentage, mean, standard deviation and inferential statistic including t-test, F-test and Pearson correlation for hypothesis testing. Finding showed that the quality of working life and the organizational commitment of municipal Employee in Samut Sakhon province in terms of compensation and fair has a positive correlation (r = 0.673) and the comparison of the quality of working life and organizational commitment of municipal employees in Samut Sakhon province by gender. We found that the overall difference was statistically significant at the 0.05 level and we also found stability and progress in career path and the characteristics are beneficial to society has a difference was statistically significant at the 0.01 level, and the participation and social acceptance has a difference was statistically significant at the 0.05 level.

Keywords: quality of working life, organizational commitment, municipal employee, Samut Sakhon province

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Authors: Vashti Carissa

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The main objective of this study is to examine whether the life-cycle theory of dividends could explain the determinant of an optimal dividend policy in Indonesia. The sample that was used consists of 1,420 non-financial and non-trade, services, investment firms listed in Indonesian Stock Exchange during the period of 2005-2014. According to this finding using logistic regression, firm life-cycle measured by retained earnings as a proportion of total equity (RETE) significantly has a positive effect on the propensity of a firm pays dividend. The higher company’s earned surplus portion in its capital structure could reflect firm maturity level which will increase the likelihood of dividend payment in mature firms. This result provides an additional empirical evidence about the existence of life-cycle theory of dividends for dividend payout phenomenon in Indonesia. It can be known that dividends tend to be paid by mature firms while retention is more dominating in growth firms. From the testing results, it can also be known that majority of sample firms are being in the growth phase which proves the fact about infrequent dividend distribution in Indonesia during the ten years observation period.

Keywords: dividend, dividend policy, life-cycle theory of dividends, mix of earned and contributed capital

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Authors: Ni Wayan Sinthia Widiastuti, Komang Rahayu Indrawati

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The increasing number of tourists coming to Bali, causing accommodation facilities, such as hotels have increased. The existence of hotel needs will be the source of labor and cost efficiency, so that hotel management employs employees with different working status. The hospitality industry is one of the sectors that require organizational citizenship behavior because, the main goal of every hotel, in general, was to provide the best service and quality to tourists. The purpose of this study was to determine the differences in organizational citizenship behavior based on work status of employees at the Hotel in Bali in terms of quality of work life. Research sample was chosen randomly through two-stage cluster sampling which succeeds to obtain 126 samples from 11 hotels in Denpasar, Bali. The subjects consisted of 64 employees with Employment Agreement of Uncertain Time or who is often called a permanent employee and 62 employees with Employment Agreement of Certain Time or better known as contract employees, outsourcing, and daily workers. Instruments in this study were the scale of organizational citizenship behavior and the scale of quality of work life. The results of ANCOVA analysis showed there were differences in organizational citizenship behavior based on employee work status in terms of quality of work life. Differences in organizational citizenship behavior and quality of work life based on work status of employees using comparative test was analysis by independent sample t-test shows there were differences in organizational citizenship behavior and quality of work life between employees with different working status in hotels in Bali. The result of the regression analysis showed the functional relationship between quality of work life and organizational citizenship behavior.

Keywords: hotel in Bali, organizational citizenship behavior, quality of work life, work status of employees

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Authors: Ndibarefinia Tobin

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The UK construction industry has been under pressure for many years to produce economical buildings which offer value for money, not only during the construction phase, but more importantly, during the full life of the building. Whole life costing is considered as an economic analysis tool that takes into account the total investment cost in and ownership, operation and subsequent disposal of a product or system to which the whole life costing method is being applied. In spite of its importance, the practice is still crippled by the lack of tangible evidence, ‘know-how’ skills and knowledge of the practice i.e. the lack of professionals with the knowledge and training on the use of the practice in construction project, this situation is compounded by the absence of available data on whole life costing from relevant projects, lack of data collection mechanisms and so on. The aforementioned problems has forced many construction organisations to adopt project enhancement initiatives to boost their performance on the use of whole life costing techniques so as to produce economical buildings which offer value for money during the construction stage also the whole life of the building/asset. The management of knowledge in whole life costing is considered as one of the many project enhancement initiative and it is becoming imperative in the performance and sustainability of an organisation. Procuring building projects using whole life costing technique is heavily reliant on the knowledge, experience, ideas and skills of workers, which comes from many sources including other individuals, electronic media and documents. Due to the diversity of knowledge, capabilities and skills of employees that vary across an organisation, it is significant that they are directed and coordinated efficiently so as to capture, retrieve and share knowledge in order to improve the performance of the organisation. The implementation of knowledge management concept has different levels in each organisation. Measuring the maturity level of knowledge management in whole life costing practice will paint a comprehensible picture of how knowledge is managed in construction organisations. Purpose: The purpose of this study is to identify knowledge management maturity in UK construction organisations adopting whole life costing in construction project. Design/methodology/approach: This study adopted a survey method and conducted by distributing questionnaires to large construction companies that implement knowledge management activities in whole life costing practice in construction project. Four level of knowledge management maturity was proposed on this study. Findings: From the results obtained in the study shows that 34 contractors at the practiced level, 26 contractors at managed level and 12 contractors at continuously improved level.

Keywords: knowledge management, whole life costing, construction industry, knowledge

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Authors: Olga Muries-Cantan, Alice Schippers, Climent Gine, Noelle van den Heuvel

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A systematic review of the literature about the quality of life perceptions of siblings of people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (ID/DD) has shown differences and similarities among siblings’ perceptions around the world. Some of these differences might be explained by the influence of cultural and religious backgrounds on siblings’ quality of life through values, beliefs, and perceptions of ‘normalcy’ and stigma. The main goal of the multiple case study that we present, is to explore the quality of life perceptions of two adolescent siblings of individuals with ID/DD in order to identify the role cultural influence has played in their perceptions of quality of life. Two siblings from different European regions will participate in the study: one from a Southern European country (Spain) and the other one from a Western European country (The Netherlands). Taking a cross-cultural perspective, concepts such as values, cultural beliefs regarding disability, expectations, identity, supports, desires, and sibling relationships, will be discussed in a semi-structured interview with each sibling. Data will be analysed following an interpretative phenomenological analysis (IPA). It is expected that findings will show the particularities of the experience of having a brother or a sister with ID/DD and the singular influence of the culture on siblings’ perceptions of quality of life. The results of this study will help to spread awareness around the necessity that researchers, practitioners, and policymakers take into account the cultural background of the individuals in order to provide them with better services and support. In this line, more culturally situated research is required to enlarge the knowledge in this field.

Keywords: culture, intellectual disability, quality of life, siblings

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Authors: Nilofar Mohammadi Ahvazi, Somayeh Ansari, Mohammad Hossein Haghighizadeh, Zahra Abbaspoor

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Introduction: Dysmenorrhea is one of the common causes of decreased efficiency at work, education and decreased quality of life of women. The aim of this study was to compare virtual and face-to-face training programs in reducing pain and improving the quality of life of female students with primary dysmenorrhea in Ahvaz. Methods: In this quasi-experimental study, 112 female students living in the dormitories of Ahvaz University of Medical Sciences with moderate to severe primary dysmenorrhea were divided into two face-to-face and virtual groups using blocks of size 4. The educational intervention was carried out in two groups at a specific hour before the start of the first menstrual cycle. Data were collected with the help of a quality-of-life questionnaire (Sf-36), visual analog scale (VAS), and McGill questionnaire and were analyzed using descriptive and analytical tests with the help of SPSS version 25 software. Findings: The average age of the research subjects was 25.93±2.00, and the average duration of dysmenorrhea in each period was 2.49 days. There was no statistically significant difference in the quality of life of the students before the intervention, but after the educational intervention, a statistically significant difference was found between the two groups in terms of the quality of life and its dimensions (p<0.001). They were the same before the intervention, But after the intervention, the difference became significant (p<0.001). Conclusion: The virtual training method, like face-to-face training, can improve the quality of life and reduce the severity of primary dysmenorrhea pain in students. Therefore, depending on the conditions, both educational methods can be used.

Keywords: primary dysmenorrhea, face-to-face training, virtual, training

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Authors: Marianna Maiaru, Gregory M. Odegard, Josh Kemppainen, Ivan Gallegos, Michael Olaya

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Ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) are typically used in applications that require long-term mechanical integrity at elevated temperatures. CMCs are usually fabricated using a polymer precursor that is initially polymerized in situ with fiber reinforcement, followed by a series of cycles of pyrolysis to transform the polymer matrix into a rigid glass or ceramic. The pyrolysis step typically generates volatile gasses, which creates porosity within the polymer matrix phase of the composite. Subsequent cycles of monomer infusion, polymerization, and pyrolysis are often used to reduce the porosity and thus increase the durability of the composite. Because of the significant expense of such iterative processing cycles, new generations of CMCs with improved durability and manufacturability are difficult and expensive to develop using standard Edisonian approaches. The goal of this research is to develop a computational process-modeling-based approach that can be used to design the next generation of CMC materials with optimized material and processing parameters for maximum strength and efficient manufacturing. The process modeling incorporates computational modeling tools, including molecular dynamics (MD), to simulate the material at multiple length scales. Results from MD simulation are used to inform the continuum-level models to link molecular-level characteristics (material structure, temperature) to bulk-level performance (strength, residual stresses). Processing parameters are optimized such that process-induced residual stresses are minimized and laminate strength is maximized. The multiscale process modeling method developed with this research can play a key role in the development of future CMCs for high-temperature and high-strength applications. By combining multiscale computational tools and process modeling, new manufacturing parameters can be established for optimal fabrication and performance of CMCs for a wide range of applications.

Keywords: digital engineering, finite elements, manufacturing, molecular dynamics

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Authors: Ali Maksum

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In a number of countries, including Indonesia, the tendency for non-communicable diseases is increasing. As a result, health costs must be paid by the state continues to increase as well. People's lifestyles, including due to lack of physical activity, are thought to have contributed significantly to the problem. This study aims to examine the impact of participation in sports on quality of life, which is reflected in three main indicators, namely health, psychological, and social aspects. The study was conducted in the city of Surabaya and its surroundings, with a total of 490 participants, consisting of 245 men and 245 women with an average age of 45.4 years. Data on physical activity and quality of life were collected by questionnaire and analyzed using structural equation modeling. The test results of the model prove that the value of chi-square = 8,259 with p = .409, RMSEA = .008, NFI = .992, and CFI = 1. This means that the model is compatible with the data. The model explains that physical activity has a significant effect on quality of life. People who exercise regularly are better able to cope with stress, have a lower risk of illness, and have higher pro-social behavior. Therefore, it needs serious efforts from stakeholders, especially the government, to create an ecosystem that allows the growth of movement culture in the community.

Keywords: participation, physical activity, quality of life, structural equation modelling

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Authors: Bojan Najdenov, Danco Davcev

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Reduction of traffic congestions and the effects of pollution and waste of resources that come with them has been a big challenge in the past decades. Having reliable systems to facilitate the process of modeling and prediction of traffic conditions would not only reduce the environmental pollution, but will also save people time and money. Social networks play big role of people’s lives nowadays providing them means of communicating and sharing thoughts and ideas, that way generating huge knowledge bases by crowdsourcing. In addition to that, crowdsourcing as a concept provides mechanisms for fast and relatively reliable data generation and also many services are being used on regular basis because they are mainly powered by the public as main content providers. In this paper we present the Social-NETS-Traffic-Control System (SNTCS) that should serve as a facilitator in the process of modeling and prediction of traffic congestions. The main contribution of our system is to integrate data from social networks as Twitter and also implements a custom created crowdsourcing subsystem with which users report traffic conditions using an android application. Our first experience of the usage of the system confirms that the integrated approach allows easy extension of the system with other social networks and represents a very useful tool for traffic control.

Keywords: traffic, congestion reduction, crowdsource, social networks, twitter, android

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Authors: Amartya Hatua, Trung Nguyen, Andrew Sung

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In this paper, we study the information diffusion process on Twitter as a multivariate time series problem. Our model concerns three measures (volume, network influence, and sentiment of tweets) based on 10 features, and we collected 27 million tweets to build our information diffusion time series dataset for analysis. Then, different time series clustering techniques with Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) distance were used to identify different patterns of information diffusion. Finally, we built the information diffusion prediction models for new hashtags which comprise two phrases: The first phrase is recognizing the pattern using k-NN with DTW distance; the second phrase is building the forecasting model using the traditional Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and the non-linear recurrent neural network of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). Preliminary results of performance evaluation between different forecasting models show that LSTM with clustering information notably outperforms other models. Therefore, our approach can be applied in real-world applications to analyze and predict the information diffusion characteristics of selected topics or memes (hashtags) in Twitter.

Keywords: ARIMA, DTW, information diffusion, LSTM, RNN, time series clustering, time series forecasting, Twitter

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Authors: Ravi Soni, Irfan Pathan, Manish Pande

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The current product development process needs simultaneous consideration of different physics. The performance of the product needs to be considered under both structural and fluid loads. Examples include ducts and valves where structural behavior affects fluid motion and vice versa. Simulation of fluid-structure interaction involves modeling interaction between moving components and the fluid flow. In these scenarios, it is difficult to calculate the damping provided by fluid flow because of dynamic motions of components and the transient nature of the flow. Abaqus Explicit offers general capabilities for modeling fluid-structure interaction with the Coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian (CEL) method. The Coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian technique has been used to simulate fluid spillage through fuel valves during dynamic closure events. The technique to simulate pressure drops across Eulerian domains has been developed using stagnation pressure. Also, the fluid flow is calculated considering material flow through elements at the outlet section of the valves. The methodology has been verified on Eaton products and shows a good correlation with the test results.

Keywords: Coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian Technique, fluid structure interaction, spillage prediction, stagnation pressure

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Authors: E. Heintz, H. J. van Lent, K. Glass, J. Lim

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The trend for sodium reduction in food products is clear. Following the World Health Organization (WHO) publication on sodium usage and intake, several countries have introduced initiatives to reduce food-related sodium intake. As salt is a common food preservative, this trend motivates the formulation of a suitable additive with comparable benefits of shelf life extension and microbial safety. Organic acid derivatives like acetates are known as generic microbial growth inhibitors and are commonly applied as additives to meet food safety demands. However, modern consumers have negative perceptions towards -synthetic-derived additives and increasingly prefer natural alternatives. Vinegar, for example, is a well-known natural fermentation product used in food preservation. However, the high acidity of vinegar often makes it impractical for direct use in meat products and a neutralized form would be desirable. This research demonstrates the efficacy of powdered vinegar (Provian DV) in inhibiting Listeria and spoilage organisms (LAB) to increase safety and shelf life of meat products. For this, the efficacy of Provian DV was compared to the efficacy of Provian K, a commonly used sodium free acetate-based preservative, which is known for its inhibition against Listeria. Materials & methods— Cured pork hams: Ingredients: Pork ham muscle, water, salt, dextrose, sodium tripolyphosphate, carrageenan, sodium nitrite, sodium erythorbate, and starch. Targets: 73-74% moisture, 1.75+0.1% salt, and pH 6.4+0.1. Treatments: Control (no antimicrobials), Provian®K 0.5% and 0.75%, Provian®DV 0.5%, 0.65%, 0.8% and 1.0%. Meat formulations in casings were cooked reaching an internal temperature of 73.9oC, cooled overnight and stored for 4 days at 4oC until inoculation. Inoculation: Sliced products were inoculated with approximately 3-log per gram of a cocktail of L. monocytogenes (including serotypes 4b, 1/2a and 1/2b) or LAB-cocktail (C. divergens and L. mesenteroides). Inoculated slices were vacuum packaged and stored at 4oC and 7°C. Samples were incubated 28 days (LAB) or 12 weeks (L. monocytogenes) Microbial analysis: Microbial populations were enumerated in rinsate obtained after adding 100ml of sterile Butterfield’s phosphate buffer to each package and massaging the contents externally by hand. L. monocytogenes populations were determined on triplicate samples by surface plating on Modified Oxford agar whereas LAB plate counts were determined on triplicate samples by surface plating on All Purpose Tween agar with 0.4% bromocresol purple. Proximate analysis: Triplicate non-inoculated ground samples were analyzed for the moisture content, pH, aw, salt, and residual nitrite. Results—The results confirmed the no growth of Listeria on cured ham with 0.5% Provian K stored at 4°C and 7°C for 12 weeks, whereas the no-antimicrobial control showed a 1-log increase within two weeks. 0.5% Provian DV demonstrated similar efficacy towards Listeria inhibition at 4°C while 0.65% Provian DV was required to match the Listeria control at 7°C. 0.75% Provian K and 1% Provian DV were needed to show inhibition of the LAB for 4 weeks at both temperatures. Conclusions—This research demonstrated that it is possible to increase safety and shelf life of cured ready-to-eat ham using preservatives that meet current food trends, like sodium reduction and natural origin.

Keywords: food safety, natural preservation, listeria control, shelf life extension

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Authors: Nur Farizah Binte Mohd Sedek

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Divine love is ubiquitous in many religions and philosophies. In the Islamic Sufi tradition, it is recognized as an “intense yearning for unification” with God. Previous literature demonstrates that divine love plays a role in forming meaning and purpose in one’s life. However, previous research has not explored the effects of the Islamic practice of divine love contemplation on meaning and purpose in life. The current study used an experimental design to investigate whether a divine love contemplation intervention has an impact on meaning and purpose in life in Muslims through the framework of Islamic Psychology. The sample consisted of 34 participants (7 males and 27 females) who were randomly assigned to one of two groups: Intervention (n = 20) and Control (n = 14). Participants in the intervention group did a general litany and a divine love supplication and contemplation exercise, while participants in the control group did only a general litany exercise. Three hypotheses were tested using a mixed-design two-way (split-plot) Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) to determine whether participants in the intervention group will report a significant increase in 1) divine love, 2) meaning in life, and 3) purpose in life from before to after the intervention, whereas participants in the control group will not report a significant change in the mentioned constructs. The results supported Hypothesis 1, in that a significant interaction between group and time emerged for divine love. Specifically, the intervention group reported a significant increase in divine love from before to after the intervention, whereas the control group did not report a significant change in divine love. Furthermore, the effect size was large, even though the mean difference was negligible, indicating that this change was substantial enough to have a considerable effect on the sample. However, the tests of the second and third hypotheses were not significant, suggesting that the divine love contemplation intervention did not have a significant impact on meaning or purpose in life. Suggestions for future research include qualitative phenomenological studies that could be conducted to glean experiential insight into the constructs from the participants’ individual accounts.

Keywords: divine love, meaning in life, purpose in life, contemplation, islamic psychology

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Authors: Chor Nejmeddine, Ines Ben Omrane, Mohamed Abdelwahed

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In this paper, we present a posteriori analysis of the discretization of the heat equation by spectral element method. We apply Euler's implicit scheme in time and spectral method in space. We propose two families of error indicators, both of which are built from the residual of the equation and we prove that they satisfy some optimal estimates. We present some numerical results which are coherent with the theoretical ones.

Keywords: heat equation, spectral elements discretization, error indicators, Euler

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Authors: Tanja Ecken, Laura Fricke, Anika Steger, Maren M. Michaelsen, Tobias Esch

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Studies and applied experiences evidence severe and traumatic accidents to not only require physical rehabilitation and recovery but also to necessitate a psychological adaption and reorganization to the changed living conditions. Neurobiological models underpinning the experience of happiness and satisfaction postulate life shocks to potentially enhance the experience of happiness and life satisfaction, i.e., posttraumatic growth (PTG). This present study aims to provide an in-depth understanding of the underlying psychological processes of PTG and to outline its consequences on subjective happiness and life satisfaction. To explore the aforementioned, Esch’s (2022) ABC Model was used as guidance for the development of a questionnaire assessing changes in happiness and life satisfaction and for a schematic model postulating the development of PTG in the context of paraplegia. Two-stage qualitative interview procedures explored participants’ experiences of paraplegia. Specifically, narrative, semi-structured interviews (N=28) focused on the time before and after the accident, the availability of supportive resources, and potential changes in the perception of happiness and life satisfaction. Qualitative analysis (Grounded Theory) indicated an initial phase of reorganization was followed by a gradual psychological adaption to novel, albeit reduced, opportunities in life. Participants reportedly experienced a ‘compelled’ slowing down and elements of mindfulness, subsequently instilling a sense of gratitude and joy in relation to life’s presumed trivialities. Despite physical limitations and difficulties, participants reported an enhanced ability to relate to oneself and others and a reduction of perceived every day nuisances. Concluding, PTG can be experienced in response to severe, traumatic life events and has the potential to enrich the lives of affected persons in numerous, unexpected and yet challenging ways. PTG appears to be spectrum comprised of an interplay of internal and external resources underpinned by neurobiological processes. Participants experienced PTG irrelevant of age, gender, marital status, income or level of education.

Keywords: inhibition theory, posttraumatic growth, trauma, stress, life satisfaction, subjective happiness, traumatic life events, paraplegia

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Authors: Yuhang Wang, Jorg Schluter, Sergiy Shelyag

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The high cost associated with high-resolution computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is one of the main challenges that inhibit the design, development, and optimisation of new combustion systems adapted for renewable fuels. In this study, we propose a physics-guided CNN-based model to predict turbulence evolution and mixing without requiring a traditional CFD solver. The model architecture is built upon U-Net and the inception module, while a physics-guided loss function is designed by introducing two additional physical constraints to allow for the conservation of both mass and pressure over the entire predicted flow fields. Then, the model is trained on the Large Eddy Simulation (LES) results of a natural turbulent mixing layer with two different Reynolds number cases (Re = 3000 and 30000). As a result, the model prediction shows an excellent agreement with the corresponding CFD solutions in terms of both spatial distributions and temporal evolution of turbulent mixing. Such promising model prediction performance opens up the possibilities of doing accurate high-resolution manifold-based combustion simulations at a low computational cost for accelerating the iterative design process of new combustion systems.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, turbulence, machine learning, combustion modelling

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Authors: Deepak Jugran

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The last century has witnessed rapid scientific growth, and social policies mainly targeted to increase the “life expectancy” of the people. As a result of these developments, the aging as well as ailing population, is increasing by every day. Despite an increase in “life expectancy”, we have not recorded compression in morbidity numbers as the age of onset of the majority of health issues has not increased substantially. In recent years, the prevalence of chronic diseases along with the improved treatment has also resulted in the increase of people living with chronic diseases. The last decade has also focused on social policies to increase the life expectancy in the population; however, in recent decades, social policies and biomedical research are gradually shifting on the potential of increasing healthy life or healthspan. In this article, we review the existing framework of lifespan and healthspan and wish to ignite a discussion among social scientists and public health experts to propose a wholistic framework to balance the trade-offs on social policies for “lifespan” and “healthspan”.

Keywords: lifespan, healthspan, chronic diseases, social policies

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Authors: Ngonidzashe Mangoma, Caroline Marigold Sebata

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The release of cyanide-rich effluents from gold mines, and other industries, into the environment, is a global concern considering the well-known metabolic effects of cyanide in all forms of life. Such effluents need to be treated to remove cyanide, among other pollutants, before their disposal. This study aimed at investigating the possible use of bacteria in the biological removal of cyanide from cyanide-rich effluents. Firstly, cyanide-degrading bacteria were isolated from gold mine effluents and characterised. The isolates were then tested for their ability to grow in the presence of cyanide and their tolerance to increasing levels of the compound. To evaluate each isolate’s cyanide-degrading activities, isolates were grown in the simulated and actual effluent, and a titrimetric method was used to quantify residual cyanide over a number of days. Cyanide degradation efficiency (DE) was then calculated for each isolate. Identification of positive isolates involved 16S rRNA gene amplification and sequence analysis through BLAST. Six cyanide-utilising bacterial strains were isolated. Two of the isolates were identified as Klebsiella spp. while the other two were shown to be different strains of Clostridium bifermentans. All isolates showed normal growth in the presence of cyanide, with growth being inhibited at 700 mg/L cyanide and beyond. Cyanide degradation efficiency for all isolates in the simulated effluent ranged from 79% to 97%. All isolates were able to remove cyanide from actual gold mine effluent with very high DE values (90 – 94%) being recorded. Isolates obtained in this study were able to efficiently remove cyanide from both simulated and actual effluent. This observation clearly demonstrates the feasibility of the biological removal of cyanide from cyanide-rich gold mine effluents and should, therefore, motivate research towards the possible large-scale application of this technology.

Keywords: cyanide effluent, bioremediation, Clostridium bifermentans, Klebsiella spp, environment

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Authors: A. Uludağ, F. G. Tufekci, N. Ceviz

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Aim: The research has been carried out in order to evaluate caregiver burden, life satisfaction and received social support level of the parents whose children have congenital heart disease; to examine the relationship between the social supports received by them and caregiver burden and life satisfaction. Material and Method: The research which is descriptive and which is searching a relationship has been carried out between the dates June 7, 2012- June 30, 2014, in Erzurum Ataturk University Research and Application Hospital, Department of Pediatrics and Children Cardiology Polyclinic. In the research, it was collaborated with the parents (N = 157) who accepted to participate in, of children who were between the ages of 3 months- 12 years. While gathering the data, a questionnaire, Zarit Caregiver Burden, Life Satisfaction and Social Support Scales have been used. The statistics of the data acquired has been produced by using percentage distribution, mean, and variance and correlation analysis. Ethical principles are followed in the research. Results: In the research, caregiver burden, life satisfaction and social support level received from family (p < 0.05), have been determined higher in the parents whose children have serious congenital heart disease than that of parents whose children have slight disease and social support received from friends has been found lower. It has been determined that there is a strong relation (p < 0.001) through negative direction between both social support levels and caregiver burden of parents; and that there is a strong relation (p < 0.001) through positive direction between both support levels and life satisfaction. Conclusion: That Social Support is in a strong relation with Caregiver Burden through a negative direction and a strong relation with Life Satisfaction through positive direction in parents of all the children who have congenital heart disease requires social support systems to be reinforced. Parents can be led or guided so as to prompt social support systems more.

Keywords: congenital heart disease, child, parents, caregiver burden, life satisfaction, social support

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Authors: I. L. Kim, J. Y. Lee, A. K. Tekile

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In consequence of the very high urbanization rate of Korea, the number of traffic noise damages in areas congested with population and facilities is steadily increasing. The current environmental noise levels data in major cities of the country show that the noise levels exceed the standards set for both day and night times. This research was about comparative analysis in search for optimal soundproof panel shape and design factor that can minimize sound reflection noise. In addition to the normal flat-type panel shape, the reflection noise reduction of swelling-type, combined swelling and curved-type, and screen-type were evaluated. The noise source model Nord 2000, which often provides abundant information compared to models for the similar purpose, was used in the study to determine the overall noise level. Based on vehicle categorization in Korea, the noise levels for varying frequency from different heights of the sound source (directivity heights of Harmonize model) have been calculated for simulation. Each simulation has been made using the ray-tracing method. The noise level has also been calculated using the noise prediction program called SoundPlan 7.2, for comparison. The noise level prediction was made at 15m (R1), 30 m (R2) and at middle of the road, 2m (R3) receiving the point. By designing the noise barriers by shape and running the prediction program by inserting the noise source on the 2nd lane to the noise barrier side, among the 6 lanes considered, the reflection noise slightly decreased or increased in all noise barriers. At R1, especially in the cases of the screen-type noise barriers, there was no reduction effect predicted in all conditions. However, the swelling-type showed a decrease of 0.7~1.2 dB at R1, performing the best reduction effect among the tested noise barriers. Compared to other forms of noise barriers, the swelling-type was thought to be the most suitable for reducing the reflection noise; however, since a slight increase was predicted at R2, further research based on a more sophisticated categorization of related design factors is necessary. Moreover, as swellings are difficult to produce and the size of the modules are smaller than other panels, it is challenging to install swelling-type noise barriers. If these problems are solved, its applicable region will not be limited to other types of noise barriers. Hence, when a swelling-type noise barrier is installed at a downtown region where the amount of traffic is increasing every day, it will both secure visibility through the transparent walls and diminish any noise pollution due to the reflection. Moreover, when decorated with shapes and design, noise barriers will achieve a visual attraction than a flat-type one and thus will alleviate any psychological hardships related to noise, other than the unique physical soundproofing functions of the soundproof panels.

Keywords: reflection noise, shaped noise barriers, sound proof panel, traffic noise

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Authors: Anne C. Richer-De-Forges, Dominique Arrouays, Songchao Chen, Mercedes Roman Dobarco

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Most of the digital soil mapping (DSM) products rely on machine learning (ML) prediction models and/or the use or pedotransfer functions (PTF) in which calibration data come from soil analyses performed in labs. However, many other observations (often qualitative, nominal, or ordinal) could be used as proxies of lab measurements or as input data for ML of PTF predictions. DSM and ML are briefly described with some examples taken from the literature. Then, we explore the potential of an ordinal qualitative variable, i.e., the hand-feel soil texture (HFST) estimating the mineral particle distribution (PSD): % of clay (0-2µm), silt (2-50µm) and sand (50-2000µm) in 15 classes. The PSD can also be measured by lab measurements (LAST) to determine the exact proportion of these particle-sizes. However, due to cost constraints, HFST are much more numerous and spatially dense than LAST. Soil texture (ST) is a very important soil parameter to map as it is controlling many of the soil properties and functions. Therefore, comes an essential question: is it possible to use HFST as a proxy of LAST for calibration and/or validation of DSM predictions of ST? To answer this question, the first step is to compare HFST with LAST on a representative set where both information are available. This comparison was made on ca 17,400 samples representative of a French region (34,000 km2). The accuracy of HFST was assessed, and each HFST class was characterized by a probability distribution function (PDF) of its LAST values. This enables to randomly replace HFST observations by LAST values while respecting the PDF previously calculated and results in a very large increase of observations available for the calibration or validation of PTF and ML predictions. Some preliminary results are shown. First, the comparison between HFST classes and LAST analyses showed that accuracies could be considered very good when compared to other studies. The causes of some inconsistencies were explored and most of them were well explained by other soil characteristics. Then we show some examples applying these relationships and the increase of data to several issues related to DSM. The first issue is: do the PDF functions that were established enable to use HSFT class observations to improve the LAST soil texture prediction? For this objective, we replaced all HFST for topsoil by values from the PDF 100 time replicates). Results were promising for the PTF we tested (a PTF predicting soil water holding capacity). For the question related to the ML prediction of LAST soil texture on the region, we did the same kind of replacement, but we implemented a 10-fold cross-validation using points where we had LAST values. We obtained only preliminary results but they were rather promising. Then we show another example illustrating the potential of using HFST as validation data. As in numerous countries, the HFST observations are very numerous; these promising results pave the way to an important improvement of DSM products in all the countries of the world.

Keywords: digital soil mapping, improvement of digital soil mapping predictions, potential of using hand-feel soil texture, soil texture prediction

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Authors: Wladislaw Mill, Hariet Kirschner, Anna Zimmermann, Sashi Singh, Simon Forstmeier, Uwe Berger, Bernhard Strauss, Benedikt Werner

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Introduction: A promising method to improve mental health of elderly people are structured life-reviews. We report the evaluation of our newly developed manual for structured life-reviews. The manual was created with the emphasis on straightforward application so that it can be used by professionals and lay people alike. Method: A within-subjects pre-post design is used to evaluate the manual using a geriatric depression scale and a self-integrity measure. Participants are elderly people living by themselves and in nursing homes. Findings: It is shown that elderly people perceive the structured life-review as a very positive experience. More importantly, it is shown that a negative trend of self-integrity and geriatric depression is significantly reduced by the intervention. Conclusion: The data suggest that the manual contributes positively to self- perception and mental health. We conclude that this newly developed device is very valuable to augment elderly care.

Keywords: structured life-review, self-integrity, geriatric depression, preventation research

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Authors: Kouassi Louis Kra

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The nearshore deep-water gravity flow deposits in the Northern steep slope of Dongying depression, Bohai Bay basin, have been acknowledged as important reservoirs in the rift lacustrine basin. These deep strata term as coarse clastic sediment, deposit at the root of the slope have complex depositional processes and involve wide diagenetic events which made high-quality reservoir prediction to be complex. Based on the integrated study of seismic interpretation, sedimentary analysis, petrography, cores samples, wireline logging data, 3D seismic and lithological data, the reservoir formation mechanism deciphered. The Geoframe software was used to analyze 3-D seismic data to interpret the stratigraphy and build a sequence stratigraphic framework. Thin section identification, point counts were performed to assess the reservoir characteristics. The software PetroMod 1D of Schlumberger was utilized for the simulation of burial history. CL and SEM analysis were performed to reveal diagenesis sequences. Backscattered electron (BSE) images were recorded for definition of the textural relationships between diagenetic phases. The result showed that the nearshore steep slope deposits mainly consist of conglomerate, gravel sandstone, pebbly sandstone and fine sandstone interbedded with mudstone. The reservoir is characterized by low-porosity and ultra-low permeability. The diagenesis reactions include compaction, precipitation of calcite, dolomite, kaolinite, quartz cement and dissolution of feldspars and rock fragment. The main types of reservoir space are primary intergranular pores, residual intergranular pores, intergranular dissolved pores, intergranular dissolved pores, and fractures. There are three obvious anomalous high-porosity zones in the reservoir. Overpressure and early hydrocarbon filling are the main reason for abnormal secondary pores development. Sedimentary facies control the formation of high-quality reservoir, oil and gas filling preserves secondary pores from late carbonate cementation.

Keywords: Bohai Bay, Dongying Sag, deep strata, formation mechanism, high-quality reservoir

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Authors: Yu-Jia Jian, Emily Chia-Yu Su, Hui-Ling Hsu, Jian-Jhih Chen

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Coronary artery is the major supplier of myocardial blood flow. When fat and cholesterol are deposit in the coronary arterial wall, narrowing and stenosis of the artery occurs, which may lead to myocardial ischemia and eventually infarction. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), estimated 740 million people have died of coronary heart disease in 2015. According to Statistics from Ministry of Health and Welfare in Taiwan, heart disease (except for hypertensive diseases) ranked the second among the top 10 causes of death from 2013 to 2016, and it still shows a growing trend. According to American Heart Association (AHA), the risk factors for coronary heart disease including: age (> 65 years), sex (men to women with 2:1 ratio), obesity, diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, smoking, family history, lack of exercise and more. We have collected a dataset of 421 patients from a hospital located in northern Taiwan who received coronary computed tomography (CT) angiography. There were 300 males (71.26%) and 121 females (28.74%), with age ranging from 24 to 92 years, and a mean age of 56.3 years. Prior to coronary CT angiography, basic data of the patients, including age, gender, obesity index (BMI), diastolic blood pressure, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, smoking, family history of coronary heart disease and exercise habits, were collected and used as input variables. The output variable of the prediction module is the degree of coronary artery stenosis. The output variable of the prediction module is the narrow constriction of the coronary artery. In this study, the dataset was randomly divided into 80% as training set and 20% as test set. Four machine learning algorithms, including logistic regression, stepwise regression, neural network and decision tree, were incorporated to generate prediction results. We used area under curve (AUC) / accuracy (Acc.) to compare the four models, the best model is neural network, followed by stepwise logistic regression, decision tree, and logistic regression, with 0.68 / 79 %, 0.68 / 74%, 0.65 / 78%, and 0.65 / 74%, respectively. Sensitivity of neural network was 27.3%, specificity was 90.8%, stepwise Logistic regression sensitivity was 18.2%, specificity was 92.3%, decision tree sensitivity was 13.6%, specificity was 100%, logistic regression sensitivity was 27.3%, specificity 89.2%. From the result of this study, we hope to improve the accuracy by improving the module parameters or other methods in the future and we hope to solve the problem of low sensitivity by adjusting the imbalanced proportion of positive and negative data.

Keywords: decision support, computed tomography, coronary artery, machine learning

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Authors: Dwi Endarti, Susi a Kristina, Rizki Noorizzati, Akbar E Nugraha, Fera Maharani, Kika a Putri, Asninda H Azizah, Sausanzahra Angganisaputri, Yunisa Yustikarini

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Cost utility analysis is the most recommended pharmacoeconomic method since it allows widely comparison of cost-effectiveness results from different interventions. The method uses outcome of quality-adjusted life year (QALY) or disability-adjusted life year (DALY). Measurement of QALY requires the data of utility dan life years gained. Utility is measured with the instrument for quality of life measurement such as EQ-5D. Recently, the EQ-5D is available in two versions which are EQ-5D-3L and EQ-5D-5L. This study aimed to compare the EQ-5D-3L and EQ-5D-5L to examine the most suitable version for Indonesian population. This study was an observational study employing cross sectional approach. Data of quality of life measured with EQ-5D-3L and EQ-5D-5L were collected from several groups of population which were respondent with chronic diseases, respondent with acute diseases, and respondent from general population (without illness) in Yogyakarta Municipality, Indonesia. Convenience samples of hypertension patients (83), diabetes mellitus patients (80), and osteoarthritis patients (47), acute respiratory tract infection (81), cephalgia (43), dyspepsia (42), and respondent from general population (293) were recruited in this study. Responses on the 3L and 5L versions of EQ-5D were compared by examining the psychometric properties including agreement, internal consistency, ceiling effect, and convergent validity. Based on psychometric properties tests of EQ-5D-3L dan EQ-5D-5L, EQ-5D-5L tended to have better psychometric properties compared to EQ-5D-3L. Future studies for health related quality of life (HRQOL) measurements for pharmacoeconomic studies in Indonesia should apply EQ-5D-5L.

Keywords: EQ-5D, Health Related Quality of Life, Indonesian Population, Psychometric Properties

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Authors: Tanima Chowdhury, Sanjay Chattopadhaya, Narayan Ch. Saha

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Khoa is an indigenous heat desiccated milk product having very poor shelf life. At ambient condition, shelf-life of khoa is normally only 2 days. The aim of present study was to determine the effect of benzoic acid as preservative as well as modified atmosphere packaging (MAP) technology to enhance shelf life of khoa at 27±2°C and 65% RH. During storage, analysis of chemical, sensory as well as microbiological characteristics were taken into consideration to mark distinguishable changes between the package of modified atmosphere technology (MAP) and ordinarily packed khoa (with and without preservative) samples. The results indicated a significant decrease of moisture content, pH and sensory scores and increase in titratable acidity, standard plate count and yeast and mould count during storage, irrespective of the type of packaging conditions. However, the rate of changes in characteristics of product packed in modified atmosphere was found to be slow. The storage study indicated that the khoa packed in ordinary packaging, with and without preservative, was acceptable for 4 and 8 days, respectively, whereas for modified atmosphere packed samples, it was consumable up to 8 and 12 days, respectively.

Keywords: benzoic acid, khoa, modified atmosphere packaging, shelf life

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Authors: Duncan Fraser

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A 3-Dimensional (3D) conceptual site model was developed using the Leapfrog Works® platform utilising a comprehensive historical dataset for a large former Gasworks site in Fitzroy, Melbourne. The gasworks had been constructed across two fractured geological units with varying hydraulic conductivities. A Newer Volcanic (basaltic) outcrop covered approximately half of the site and was overlying a fractured Melbourne formation (Siltstone) bedrock outcropping over the remaining portion. During the investigative phase of works, a dense non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) plume (coal tar) was identified within both geological units in the subsurface originating from multiple sources, including gasholders, tar wells, condensers, and leaking pipework. The first stage of model development was undertaken to determine the horizontal and vertical extents of the coal tar in the subsurface and assess the potential causality between potential sources, plume location, and site geology. Concentrations of key contaminants of interest (COIs) were also interpolated within Leapfrog to refine the distribution of contaminated soils. The model was subsequently used to develop a robust soil remediation strategy and achieve endorsement from an Environmental Auditor. A change in project scope, following the removal and validation of the three former gasholders, necessitated the additional excavation of a significant volume of residual contaminated rock to allow for the future construction of two-story underground basements. To assess financial liabilities associated with the offsite disposal or thermal treatment of material, the 3D model was updated with three years of additional analytical data from the active remediation phase of works. Chemical concentrations and the residual tar plume within the rock fractures were modelled to pre-classify the in-situ material and enhance separation strategies to prevent the unnecessary treatment of material and reduce costs.

Keywords: 3D model, contaminated land, Leapfrog, remediation

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Authors: Deniz Peksen

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This thesis aims to predict trend movement of closing price of stock and to maximize portfolio by utilizing the predictions. In this context, the study aims to define a stock portfolio strategy from models created by using Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest. Recently, predicting the trend of stock price has gained a significance role in making buy and sell decisions and generating returns with investment strategies formed by machine learning basis decisions. There are plenty of studies in the literature on the prediction of stock prices in capital markets using machine learning methods but most of them focus on closing prices instead of the direction of price trend. Our study differs from literature in terms of target definition. Ours is a classification problem which is focusing on the market trend in next 20 trading days. To predict trend direction, fourteen years of data were used for training. Following three years were used for validation. Finally, last three years were used for testing. Training data are between 2002-06-18 and 2016-12-30 Validation data are between 2017-01-02 and 2019-12-31 Testing data are between 2020-01-02 and 2022-03-17 We determine Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate as benchmarks which we should outperform. We compared our machine learning basis portfolio return on test data with return of Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate. We assessed our model performance with the help of roc-auc score and lift charts. We use logistic regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest with grid search approach to fine-tune hyper-parameters. As a result of the empirical study, the existence of uptrend and downtrend of five stocks could not be predicted by the models. When we use these predictions to define buy and sell decisions in order to generate model-based-portfolio, model-based-portfolio fails in test dataset. It was found that Model-based buy and sell decisions generated a stock portfolio strategy whose returns can not outperform non-model portfolio strategies on test dataset. We found that any effort for predicting the trend which is formulated on stock price is a challenge. We found same results as Random Walk Theory claims which says that stock price or price changes are unpredictable. Our model iterations failed on test dataset. Although, we built up several good models on validation dataset, we failed on test dataset. We implemented Random Forest, Gradient Boosting and Logistic Regression. We discovered that complex models did not provide advantage or additional performance while comparing them with Logistic Regression. More complexity did not lead us to reach better performance. Using a complex model is not an answer to figure out the stock-related prediction problem. Our approach was to predict the trend instead of the price. This approach converted our problem into classification. However, this label approach does not lead us to solve the stock prediction problem and deny or refute the accuracy of the Random Walk Theory for the stock price.

Keywords: stock prediction, portfolio optimization, data science, machine learning

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