Search results for: component prediction

Authors: Husham Bayazed

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Immune responses following surgical trauma play a pivotal role in predicting postoperative outcomes from healing and recovery to postoperative complications. Postoperative complications, including infections and protracted recovery, occur in a significant number of about 300 million surgeries performed annually worldwide. Complications cause personal suffering along with a significant economic burden on the healthcare system in any community. The accurate prediction of postoperative complications and patient-targeted interventions for their prevention remain major clinical provocations. Recent Findings: Recent studies are focusing on immune dysregulation mechanisms that occur in response to surgical trauma as a key determinant of postoperative complications. Antecedent studies mainly were plunging into the detection of inflammatory plasma markers, which facilitate in providing important clues regarding their pathogenesis. However, recent Single-cell technologies, such as mass cytometry or single-cell RNA sequencing, have markedly enhanced our ability to understand the immunological basis of postoperative immunological trauma complications and to identify their prognostic biological signatures. Summary: The advent of proteomic technologies has significantly advanced our ability to predict the risk of postoperative complications. Multiomic modeling of patients' immune states holds promise for the discovery of preoperative predictive biomarkers and providing patients and surgeons with information to improve surgical outcomes. However, more studies are required to accurately predict the risk of postoperative complications in individual patients.

Keywords: immune dysregulation, postoperative complications, surgical trauma, flow cytometry

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Authors: Geng Xiangren, Liu Lei, Gui Ye-Wei, Tang Wei, Wang An-ling

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The malfunction of thermal protection system (TPS) caused by aerodynamic heating is a latent trouble to aircraft structure safety. Accurately predicting the structure temperature field is quite important for the TPS design of hypersonic vehicle. Since Thornton’s work in 1988, the coupled method of aerodynamic heating and heat transfer has developed rapidly. However, little attention has been paid to the influence of structural deformation on aerodynamic heating and structural temperature field. In the flight, especially the long-endurance flight, the structural deformation, caused by the aerodynamic heating and temperature rise, has a direct impact on the aerodynamic heating and structural temperature field. Thus, the coupled interaction cannot be neglected. In this paper, based on the method of static aero-thermo-elasticity, considering the influence of aero-thermo-elasticity deformation, the aerodynamic heating and heat transfer coupled results of hypersonic vehicle wing model were calculated. The results show that, for the low-curvature region, such as fuselage or center-section wing, structure deformation has little effect on temperature field. However, for the stagnation region with high curvature, the coupled effect is not negligible. Thus, it is quite important for the structure temperature prediction to take into account the effect of elastic deformation. This work has laid a solid foundation for improving the prediction accuracy of the temperature distribution of aircraft structures and the evaluation capacity of structural performance.

Keywords: aerothermoelasticity, elastic deformation, structural temperature, multi-field coupling

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Authors: P. H. G. J. Pushpakumara, A. M. P. Adikari, S. U. B. Tennakoon, Ranil Abeysinghe, Andrew Dawson

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Introduction: Deliberate Self-harm (DSH) is a global public health problem. Since 1950, suicide rates in Sri Lanka are among the highest national rates in the world. It has become an increasingly common response to emotional distress in young adults. However, it remains unclear the reason for this occurrence. Objectives: The descriptive component of this study was conducted to identify of epidemiological pattern of DSH and suicide in Kurunegala District (KD). Assessment of association between DSH socio-cultural, economical and psychological factors were the objectives of the case control component. Methods: Prospective data collection of DSH and suicide was conducted at all (46) hospitals and all (28) police stations in the KD for thirty six months, from 1st January 2011, as the descriptive component. Case control component was conducted at T.H. Kurunegala (THK) for eighteen months duration, from 1st July 2011. Cases (n=439) were randomly selected from a block of 7 consecutively admitted consenting DSP patients using a computer program. Age, sex and residential divisional secretariat division one to one matched, individuals were randomly selected as controls from patients presented to Out Patient Department. Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV-TR Axis I and II Disorders was used to diagnose psychiatric disorders. Validated tools were used to measure other constructs. Results: Suicide incidences in KD were, 21.6, 20.7 and 24.3 per 100,000 population in 2011- 2013 (Male:female ratio 5.7, 4.4 and 6.4). 60% of suicides were due to poisoning. DSP incidences were 205.4, 248.3 and 202.5 per 100,000 population in 2011- 2013. Highest age standardized male DSP incidence reported in 20-24 years (769.6/100,000) and female in 15-19 years (1304.0/100,000). Bing married (age >25 years), monthly family income less than Rs.30,000, not achieving G.C.E (O/L) qualifications, a school drop-out, not in a permanent position in occupation, being a manual and an own account worker, were significantly associated with DSP. Perceiving the quality of relationship as bad or very bad with parents, spouse/ girlfriend/ boyfriend and sibling as associated with 8, 40 and 10.5 times higher risk respectively. Feeling and experiences of neglect, other emotional abuses, feeling of insecurity with the family, in child hood, and having a contact history carried an excess risk for DSP. Cases were less likely to seek help. Further, they had significantly lower scores for life skills and life skills application ability. 25.6% DSH patients had DSM TR axis-I and/or TR axis-II disorder. The presence of psychiatric disorder carried 7.7 (95% CI 4.3 – 13.8) times higher risk for DSP. Conclusion: In general, pattern of DSH and suicide is, unique, different from developed, upper and middle income and lower and middle income countries. It is a learned way of expressing emotions in difficult situations of vulnerable people.

Keywords: deliberate self-harm, help-seeking, life-skills, mental- health, psychological, social, suicide

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Authors: Nadish Anand, Richard D. Gould

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A simplistic model is introduced for determining the thermal characteristics of a Low-rise Residential (LRR) building and then predicts the energy usage by its Heating Ventilation & Air Conditioning (HVAC) system according to changes in weather conditions which are reflected in the Ambient Temperature (Outside Air Temperature). The LRR buildings are treated as a simple lump for solving the heat transfer problem and the model is derived using the lumped capacitance model of transient conduction heat transfer from bodies. Since most contemporary HVAC systems have a thermostat control which will have an offset temperature and user defined set point temperatures which define when the HVAC system will switch on and off. The aim is to predict without any error the Body Temperature (i.e. the Inside Air Temperature) which will estimate the switching on and off of the HVAC system. To validate the mathematical model derived from lumped capacitance we have used EnergyPlus simulation engine, which simulates Buildings with considerable accuracy. We have predicted through the low order model the Inside Air Temperature of a single house kept in three different climate zones (Detroit, Raleigh & Austin) and different orientations for summer and winter seasons. The prediction error from the model for the same day as that of model parameter calculation has showed an error of < 10% in winter for almost all the orientations and climate zones. Whereas the prediction error is only <10% for all the orientations in the summer season for climate zone at higher latitudes (Raleigh & Detroit). Possible factors responsible for the large variations are also noted in the work, paving way for future research.

Keywords: building energy, energy consumption, energy+, HVAC, low order model, lumped capacitance

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Authors: Rafael Sousa Santos, Clara Pimena Do Vale, Barbara Bogoni, Poul Henning Kirkegaard

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The representative component, a determining aspect of the architect's training, has been marked by an exponential and unprecedented development. However, the multiplication of possibilities has also multiplied uncertainties about architectural design teaching, and by extension, about the very principles of architectural education. In this paper, it is intended to present the results of a research developed on the following problem: the relation between the forms of representation and the architectural design teaching-learning processes. The research had as its object the educational model of two schools – the Politecnico di Milano (POLIMI) and the Faculty of Architecture of the University of Porto (FAUP) – and was led by three main objectives: to characterize the educational model followed in both schools focused on the representative component and its role; to interpret the relation between forms of representation and the architectural design teaching-learning processes; to consider their possibilities of valorisation. Methodologically, the research was conducted according to a qualitative embedded multiple-case study design. The object – i.e., the educational model – was approached in both POLIMI and FAUP cases considering its Context and three embedded unities of analysis: the educational Purposes, Principles, and Practices. In order to guide the procedures of data collection and analysis, a Matrix for the Characterization (MCC) was developed. As a methodological tool, the MCC allowed to relate the three embedded unities of analysis with the three main sources of evidence where the object manifests itself: the professors, expressing how the model is assumed; the architectural design classes, expressing how the model is achieved; and the students, expressing how the model is acquired. The main research methods used were the naturalistic and participatory observation, in-person-interview and documentary and bibliographic review. The results reveal the importance of the representative component in the educational model of both cases, despite the differences in its role. In POLIMI's model, representation is particularly relevant in the teaching of architectural design, while in FAUP’s model, it plays a transversal role – according to an idea of 'general training through hand drawing'. In fact, the difference between models relative to representation can be partially understood by the level of importance that each gives to hand drawing. Regarding the teaching of architectural design, the two cases are distinguished in the relation with the representative component: while in POLIMI the forms of representation serve essentially an instrumental purpose, in FAUP they tend to be considered also for their methodological dimension. It seems that the possibilities for valuing these models reside precisely in the relation between forms of representation and architectural design teaching. It is expected that the knowledge base developed in this research may have three main contributions: to contribute to the maintenance of the educational model of POLIMI and FAUP; through the precise description of the methodological procedures, to contribute by transferability to similar studies; through the critical and objective framework of the problem underlying the forms of representation and its relation with architectural design teaching, to contribute to the broader discussion concerning the contemporary challenges on architectural education.

Keywords: architectural design teaching, architectural education, educational models, forms of representation

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Authors: Said Alshukri, Mazhar Hussain Malik

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Green hydrogen is hydrogen produced using renewable energy sources. In the last few years, Oman aimed to reduce its dependency on fossil fuels. Recently, the hydrogen economy has become a global trend, and many countries have started to investigate the feasibility of implementing this sector. Oman created an alliance to establish the policy and rules for this sector. With motivation coming from both global and local interest in green hydrogen, this paper investigates the potential of producing hydrogen from wind and solar energies in three different locations in Oman, namely Duqm, Salalah, and Sohar. By using machine learning-based software “WEKA” and local metrological data, the project was designed to figure out which location has the highest wind and solar energy potential. First, various supervised models were tested to obtain their prediction accuracy, and it was found that the Random Forest (RF) model has the best prediction performance. The RF model was applied to 2021 metrological data for each location, and the results indicated that Duqm has the highest wind and solar energy potential. The system of one wind turbine in Duqm can produce 8335 MWh/year, which could be utilized in the water electrolysis process to produce 88847 kg of hydrogen mass, while a solar system consisting of 2820 solar cells is estimated to produce 1666.223 MWh/ year which is capable of producing 177591 kg of hydrogen mass.

Keywords: green hydrogen, machine learning, wind and solar energies, WEKA, supervised models, random forest

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Authors: R. O. Osaseri, A. R. Usiobaifo

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The power transformer which is responsible for the voltage transformation is of great relevance in the power system and oil-immerse transformer is widely used all over the world. A prompt and proper maintenance of the transformer is of utmost importance. The dissolved gasses content in power transformer, oil is of enormous importance in detecting incipient fault of the transformer. There is a need for accurate prediction of the incipient fault in transformer oil in order to facilitate the prompt maintenance and reducing the cost and error minimization. Study on fault prediction and diagnostic has been the center of many researchers and many previous works have been reported on the use of artificial intelligence to predict incipient failure of transformer faults. In this study machine learning technique was employed by using gradient decent algorithms and Support Vector Machine (SVM) in predicting incipient fault diagnosis of transformer. The method focuses on creating a system that improves its performance on previous result and historical data. The system design approach is basically in two phases; training and testing phase. The gradient decent algorithm is trained with a training dataset while the learned algorithm is applied to a set of new data. This two dataset is used to prove the accuracy of the proposed model. In this study a transformer fault diagnostic model based on Support Vector Machine (SVM) and gradient decent algorithms has been presented with a satisfactory diagnostic capability with high percentage in predicting incipient failure of transformer faults than existing diagnostic methods.

Keywords: diagnostic model, gradient decent, machine learning, support vector machine (SVM), transformer fault

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Authors: Saba Gachpaz, Hamid Reza Heidari

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The sharp increase in population growth leads to more pressure on agricultural areas to satisfy the food supply. To achieve this, more resources should be consumed and, besides other environmental concerns, highlight sustainable agricultural development. Land-use management is a crucial factor in obtaining optimum productivity. Machine learning is a widely used technique in the agricultural sector, from yield prediction to customer behavior. This method focuses on learning and provides patterns and correlations from our data set. In this study, nine physical control factors, namely, soil classification, electrical conductivity, normalized difference water index (NDWI), groundwater level, elevation, annual precipitation, pH of water, annual mean temperature, and slope in the alluvial plain in Khuzestan (an agricultural hotspot in Iran) are used to decide the best agricultural land use for both rainfed and irrigated agriculture for ten different crops. For this purpose, each variable was imported into Arc GIS, and a raster layer was obtained. In the next level, by using training samples, all layers were imported into the python environment. A random forest model was applied, and the weight of each variable was specified. In the final step, results were visualized using a digital elevation model, and the importance of all factors for each one of the crops was obtained. Our results show that despite 62% of the study area being allocated to agricultural purposes, only 42.9% of these areas can be defined as a suitable class for cultivation purposes.

Keywords: land suitability, machine learning, random forest, sustainable agriculture

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Authors: Pia Kastl

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Potentials of blended learning are the flexibility of learning and the possibility to get in touch with lecturers and fellow students on site. By combining face-to-face sessions with digital self-learning units, the learning process can be optimized, and learning success increased. To examine wether blended learning outperforms online and face-to-face teaching, a theory-based questionnaire survey was conducted. The results show that the interaction and cooperation among students is poorly provided in blended learning, and face-to-face teaching performs better in this respect. The aim of this article is to identify concrete suggestions students have for improving cooperation and interaction in blended learning courses. For this purpose, interviews were conducted with students from various academic disciplines in face-to-face, online, or blended learning courses (N= 60). The questions referred to opinions and suggestions for improvement regarding the course design of the respective learning environment. The analysis was carried out by qualitative content analysis. The results show that students perceive the interaction as beneficial to their learning. They verbalize their knowledge and are exposed to different perspectives. In addition, emotional support is particularly important in exam phases. Interaction and cooperation were primarily enabled in the face-to-face component of the courses studied, while there was very limited contact with fellow students in the asynchronous component. Forums offered were hardly used or not used at all because the barrier to asking a question publicly is too high, and students prefer private channels for communication. This is accompanied by the disadvantage that the interaction occurs only among people who already know each other. Creating contacts is not fostered in the blended learning courses. Students consider optimization possibilities as a task of the lecturers in the face-to-face sessions: Here, interaction and cooperation should be encouraged through get-to-know-you rounds or group work. It is important here to group the participants randomly to establish contact with new people. In addition, sufficient time for interaction is desired in the lecture, e.g., in the context of discussions or partner work. In the digital component, students prefer synchronous exchange at a fixed time, for example, in breakout rooms or an MS Teams channel. The results provide an overview of how interaction and cooperation can be implemented in blended learning courses. Positive design possibilities are partly dependent on subject area and course. Future studies could tie in here with a course-specific analysis.

Keywords: blended learning, higher education, hybrid teaching, qualitative research, student learning

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Authors: I Dewa Gede Arya Putra

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Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a mathematical procedure that uses orthogonal transformation techniques to change a set of data with components that may be related become components that are not related to each other. This can have an impact on clustering wind speed characteristics in Indonesia. This study uses data daily wind speed observations of the Site Meteorological Station network for 30 years. Multicollinearity tests were also performed on all of these data before doing clustering with PCA. The results show that the four main components have a total diversity of above 80% which will be used for clusters. Division of clusters using Ward's method obtained 3 types of clusters. Cluster 1 covers the central part of Sumatra Island, northern Kalimantan, northern Sulawesi, and northern Maluku with the climatological pattern of wind speed that does not have an annual cycle and a weak speed throughout the year with a low-speed ranging from 0 to 1,5 m/s². Cluster 2 covers the northern part of Sumatra Island, South Sulawesi, Bali, northern Papua with the climatological pattern conditions of wind speed that have annual cycle variations with low speeds ranging from 1 to 3 m/s². Cluster 3 covers the eastern part of Java Island, the Southeast Nusa Islands, and the southern Maluku Islands with the climatological pattern of wind speed conditions that have annual cycle variations with high speeds ranging from 1 to 4.5 m/s².

Keywords: PCA, cluster, Ward's method, wind speed

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Authors: Ahmed Alghurabi, Mysara Mohyaldinn, Shiferaw Jufar, Obai Younis, Abdullah Abduljabbar

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Erosion modeling equations were typically acquired from regulated experimental trials for solid particles entrained in single-phase or multi-phase flows. Evidently, those equations were later employed to predict the erosion damage caused by the continuous impacts of solid particles entrained in streamflow. It is also well-known that the particle impact angle and velocity do not change drastically in gas-sand flow erosion prediction; hence an accurate prediction of erosion can be projected. On the contrary, high-density fluid flows, such as water flow, through complex geometries, such as sand screens, greatly affect the sand particles’ trajectories/tracks and consequently impact the erosion rate predictions. Particle tracking models and erosion equations are frequently applied simultaneously as a method to improve erosion visualization and estimation. In the present work, computational fluid dynamic (CFD)-based erosion modeling was performed using a commercially available software; ANSYS Fluent. The continuous phase (water flow) behavior was simulated using the realizable K-epsilon model, and the secondary phase (solid particles), having a 5% flow concentration, was tracked with the help of the discrete phase model (DPM). To accomplish a successful erosion modeling, three erosion equations from the literature were utilized and introduced to the ANSYS Fluent software to predict the screen wire-slot velocity surge and estimate the maximum erosion rates on the screen surface. Results of turbulent kinetic energy, turbulence intensity, dissipation rate, the total pressure on the screen, screen wall shear stress, and flow velocity vectors were presented and discussed. Moreover, the particle tracks and path-lines were also demonstrated based on their residence time, velocity magnitude, and flow turbulence. On one hand, results from the utilized erosion equations have shown similarities in screen erosion patterns, locations, and DPM concentrations. On the other hand, the model equations estimated slightly different values of maximum erosion rates of the wire-wrapped screen. This is solely based on the fact that the utilized erosion equations were developed with some assumptions that are controlled by the experimental lab conditions.

Keywords: CFD simulation, erosion rate prediction, material loss due to erosion, water-sand flow

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Authors: Silvia Arrate, Waldo Salud, Eloy París

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The wear of cutting tools is one of the most decisive elements when planning tunneling works, programming the maintenance stops and saving the optimum stock of spare parts during the evolution of the excavation. Being able to predict the behavior of cutting tools can give a very competitive advantage in terms of costs and excavation performance, optimized to the needs of the TBM itself. The incredible evolution of data science in recent years gives the option to implement it at the time of analyzing the key and most critical parameters related to machinery with the purpose of knowing how the cutting head is performing in front of the excavated ground. Taking this as a case study, Metro Line 3 of Guadalajara in Mexico will develop the feasibility of using Specific Energy versus data science applied over parameters of Torque, Penetration, and Contact Force, among others, to predict the behavior and status of cutting tools. The results obtained through both techniques are analyzed and verified in the function of the wear and the field situations observed in the excavation in order to determine its effectiveness regarding its predictive capacity. In conclusion, the possibilities and improvements offered by the application of digital tools and the programming of calculation algorithms for the analysis of wear of cutting head elements compared to purely empirical methods allow early detection of possible damage to cutting tools, which is reflected in optimization of excavation performance and a significant improvement in costs and deadlines.

Keywords: cutting tools, data science, prediction, TBM, wear

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Authors: Sophia Liang Zhou

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For investors, businesses, consumers, and governments, an accurate assessment of future housing prices is crucial to critical decisions in resource allocation, policy formation, and investment strategies. Previous studies are contradictory about macroeconomic determinants of housing price and largely focused on one or two areas using point prediction. This study aims to develop data-driven models to accurately predict future housing market trends in different markets. This work studied five different metropolitan areas representing different market trends and compared three-time lagging situations: no lag, 6-month lag, and 12-month lag. Linear regression (LR), random forest (RF), and artificial neural network (ANN) were employed to model the real estate price using datasets with S&P/Case-Shiller home price index and 12 demographic and macroeconomic features, such as gross domestic product (GDP), resident population, personal income, etc. in five metropolitan areas: Boston, Dallas, New York, Chicago, and San Francisco. The data from March 2005 to December 2018 were collected from the Federal Reserve Bank, FBI, and Freddie Mac. In the original data, some factors are monthly, some quarterly, and some yearly. Thus, two methods to compensate missing values, backfill or interpolation, were compared. The models were evaluated by accuracy, mean absolute error, and root mean square error. The LR and ANN models outperformed the RF model due to RF’s inherent limitations. Both ANN and LR methods generated predictive models with high accuracy ( > 95%). It was found that personal income, GDP, population, and measures of debt consistently appeared as the most important factors. It also showed that technique to compensate missing values in the dataset and implementation of time lag can have a significant influence on the model performance and require further investigation. The best performing models varied for each area, but the backfilled 12-month lag LR models and the interpolated no lag ANN models showed the best stable performance overall, with accuracies > 95% for each city. This study reveals the influence of input variables in different markets. It also provides evidence to support future studies to identify the optimal time lag and data imputing methods for establishing accurate predictive models.

Keywords: linear regression, random forest, artificial neural network, real estate price prediction

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Authors: D. M. El-Tanbouly, R. M. Abdelsalam, A. S. Attia, M. T. Abdel-Aziz

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Lipopolysaccharide (LPS) endotoxin, a component of the outer membrane of Gram-negative bacteria, is involved in the pathogenesis of sepsis. LPS administration induces systemic inflammation that mimics many of the initial clinical features of sepsis and has deleterious effects on several organs including the liver and eventually leading to septic shock and death. The present study aimed to investigate the protective effect of magnesium, a well-known cofactor in many enzymatic reactions and a critical component of the antioxidant system, on hepatic damage associated with LPS induced- endotoxima in mice. Mg (20 and 40 mg/kg, po) was administered for 7 consecutive days. Systemic inflammation was induced one hour after the last dose of Mg by a single dose of LPS (2 mg/kg, ip) and three hours thereafter plasma was separated, animals were sacrificed and their livers were isolated. LPS-treated mice suffered from hepatic dysfunction revealed by histological observation, elevation in plasma transaminases activities, C-reactive protein content and caspase-3, a critical marker of apoptosis. Liver inflammation was evident by elevation in liver cytokines contents (TNF-α and IL-10) and myeloperoxidase (MPO) activity. Additionally, oxidative stress was manifested by increased liver lipoperoxidation, glutathione depletion, elevated total nitrate/nitrite (NOx) content and glutathione peroxidase (GPx) activity. Pretreatment with Mg largely mitigated these alternations through its anti-inflammatory and antioxidant potentials. Mg, therefore, could be regarded as an effective strategy for prevention of liver damage associated with septicemia.

Keywords: LPS, liver damage, magnesium, septicemia

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Authors: Narava Manose

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Distillation is a very old separation technology for separating liquid mixtures that can be traced back to the chemists in Alexandria in the first century A. D. Today distillation is the most important industrial separation technology. By the eleventh century, distillation was being used in Italy to produce alcoholic beverages. At that time, distillation was probably a batch process based on the use of just a single stage, the boiler. The word distillation is derived from the Latin word destillare, which means dripping or trickling down. By at least the sixteenth century, it was known that the extent of separation could be improved by providing multiple vapor-liquid contacts (stages) in a so called Rectifactorium. The term rectification is derived from the Latin words rectefacere, meaning to improve. Modern distillation derives its ability to produce almost pure products from the use of multi-stage contacting. Throughout the twentieth century, multistage distillation was by far the most widely used industrial method for separating liquid mixtures of chemical components.The basic principle behind this technique relies on the different boiling temperatures for the various components of the mixture, allowing the separation between the vapor from the most volatile component and the liquid of other(s) component(s). •Developed a simple non-linear model of a binary distillation column using Skogestad equations in Simulink. •We have computed the steady-state operating point around which to base our analysis and controller design. However, the model contains two integrators because the condenser and reboiler levels are not controlled. One particular way of stabilizing the column is the LV-configuration where we use D to control M_D, and B to control M_B; such a model is given in cola_lv.m where we have used two P-controllers with gains equal to 10.

Keywords: modelling, distillation column, control, binary distillation

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Authors: Ahmed Z. Mazen, Nejat Rahmanian, Iqbal Mujtaba, Ali Hassanpour

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In oil and gas well drilling, the drill bit is an important part of the Bottom Hole Assembly (BHA), which is installed and designed to drill and produce a hole by several mechanisms. The efficiency of the bit depends on many drilling parameters such as weight on bit, rotary speed, and mud properties. When the bit is pulled out of the hole, the evaluation of the bit damage must be recorded very carefully to guide engineers in order to select the bits for further planned wells. Having a worn bit for hole drilling may cause severe damage to bit leading to cutter or cone losses in the bottom of hole, where a fishing job will have to take place, and all of these will increase the operating cost. The main factor to reduce the cost of drilling operation is to maximize the rate of penetration by analyzing real-time data to predict the drill bit wear while drilling. There are numerous models in the literature for prediction of the rate of penetration based on drilling parameters, mostly based on empirical approaches. One of the most commonly used approaches is Bourgoyne and Young model, where the rate of penetration can be estimated by the drilling parameters as well as a wear index using an empirical correlation, provided all the constants and coefficients are accurately determined. This paper introduces a new methodology to estimate the eight coefficients for Bourgoyne and Young model using the gPROMS parameters estimation GPE (Version 4.2.0). Real data collected form similar formations (12 ¼’ sections) in two different fields in Libya are used to estimate the coefficients. The estimated coefficients are then used in the equations and applied to nearby wells in the same field to predict the bit wear.

Keywords: Bourgoyne and Young model, bit wear, gPROMS, rate of penetration

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Authors: Shima Behkami, Nor Shahirul Umirah Idris, Sharifuddin Md. Zain, Kah Hin Low, Mehrdad Gholami, Nima A. Behkami, Ahmad Firdaus Kamaruddin

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In this work, Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS), Isotopic Ratio Mass Spectrometry (IRMS) and Ultrasound Milko Tester were used to study milk samples obtained from various geographical locations in Malaysia. ICP-MS was used to determine the concentration of trace elements in milk, water and soil samples obtained from seven dairy farms at different geographical locations in peninsular Malaysia. IRMS was used to analyze the milk samples for isotopic ratios of δ13C, 15N and 18O. Nutritional parameters in the milk samples were determined using an ultrasound milko tester. Data obtained from these measurements were evaluated by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Hierarchical Analysis (HA) as a preliminary step in determining geographical origin of these milk samples. It is observed that the isotopic ratios and a number of the nutritional parameters are responsible for the discrimination of the samples. It was also observed that it is possible to determine the geographical origin of these milk samples solely by the isotopic ratios of δ13C, 15N and 18O. The accuracy of the geographical discrimination is demonstrated when several milk samples from a milk factory taken from one of the regions under study were appropriately assigned to the correct PCA cluster.

Keywords: inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy ICP-MS, isotope ratio mass spectroscopy IRMS, ultrasound, principal component analysis, hierarchical analysis, geographical origin, milk

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Authors: Lourdes Yareth Herrera-Chavez, Alberto Ruiz, Victor H. Lopez

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Superalloys are used in components that operate at high temperatures such as pressure vessels and heat exchanger tubing. Design standards for these components must consider creep resistance among other criteria. Fusion welding processes are commonly used in the industry to join such components. Fusion processes commonly generate three distinctive zones, i.e. heat affected zone (HAZ), namely weld metal (WM) and base metal (BM). In nickel-based superalloy, the microstructure developed during fusion welding dictates the mechanical response of the welded component and it is very important to establish these effects in the mechanical response of the component. In this work, two plates of Inconel 600 superalloy were Gas Metal Arc Welded (GMAW). Creep samples were cut and milled to specifications and creep tested at a temperature (650 °C) using stress level of 350, 300, 275, 250 and 200 MPa. Microstructural analysis results showed a progressive creep damage evolution that depends on the stress levels with a preferential accumulation of creep damage at the heat affected zone where the creep rupture preferentially occurs owing to an austenitic matrix with grain boundary precipitated of the type Cr23C6. The fractured surfaces showed dimple patterns of cavity and voids. Results indicated that the damage mechanism is due to cavity growth by the combined effect of the power law and diffusion creep.

Keywords: austenitic microstructure, creep damage evolution, heat affected zone, vickers microhardness

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Authors: Geun-Yeon Kim, S. P. Praveen Kumar, Kwon-Hee Lee

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A steering knuckle arm is the component that connects the steering system and suspension system. The structural performances such as stiffness, strength, and durability are considered in its design process. The former study suggested the lightweight design of a knuckle arm considering the structural performances and using the metamodel-based optimization. The six shape design variables were defined, and the optimum design was calculated by applying the kriging interpolation method. The finite element method was utilized to predict the structural responses. The suggested knuckle was made of the aluminum Al6082, and its weight was reduced about 60% in comparison with the base steel knuckle, satisfying the design requirements. Then, we investigated its manufacturability by performing foraging analysis. The forging was done as hot process, and the product was made through two-step forging. As a final step of its developing process, the durability is investigated by using the flexible dynamic analysis software, LS-DYNA and the pre and post processor, eta/VPG. Generally, a car make does not provide all the information with the part manufacturer. Thus, the part manufacturer has a limit in predicting the durability performance with the unit of full car. The eta/VPG has the libraries of suspension, tire, and road, which are commonly used parts. That makes a full car modeling. First, the full car is modeled by referencing the following information; Overall Length: 3,595mm, Overall Width: 1,595mm, CVW (Curve Vehicle Weight): 910kg, Front Suspension: MacPherson Strut, Rear Suspension: Torsion Beam Axle, Tire: 235/65R17. Second, the road is selected as the cobblestone. The road condition of the cobblestone is almost 10 times more severe than that of usual paved road. Third, the dynamic finite element analysis using the LS-DYNA is performed to predict the durability performance of the suggested knuckle arm. The life of the suggested knuckle arm is calculated as 350,000km, which satisfies the design requirement set up by the part manufacturer. In this study, the overall design process of a knuckle arm is suggested, and it can be seen that the developed knuckle arm satisfies the design requirement of the durability with the unit of full car. The VPG analysis is successfully performed even though it does not an exact prediction since the full car model is very rough one. Thus, this approach can be used effectively when the detail to full car is not given.

Keywords: knuckle arm, structural optimization, Metamodel, forging, durability, VPG (Virtual Proving Ground)

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Authors: Aderet M. Pantierer, Shmuel Pantierer, Raphael Cordina, Yougashwar Budhoo

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Stress concentration occurs when there is an abrupt change in geometry, a mechanical part under loading. These changes in geometry can include holes, notches, or cracks within the component. The modifications create larger stress within the part. This maximum stress is difficult to determine, as it is directly at the point of the minimum area. Strain gauges have yet to be developed to analyze stresses at such minute areas. Therefore, a stress concentration factor must be utilized. The stress concentration factor is a dimensionless parameter calculated solely on the geometry of a part. The factor is multiplied by the nominal, or average, stress of the component, which can be found analytically or experimentally. Stress concentration graphs exist for common loading conditions and geometrical configurations to aid in the determination of the maximum stress a part can withstand. These graphs were developed from historical data yielded from experimentation. This project seeks to verify a stress concentration graph for combined loading conditions. The aforementioned graph was developed using CATIA Finite Element Analysis software. The results of this analysis will be validated through further testing. The 3D modeled parts will be subjected to further finite element analysis using Patran-Nastran software. The finite element models will then be verified by testing physical specimen using a tensile testing machine. Once the data is validated, the unique stress concentration graph will be submitted for publication so it can aid engineers in future projects.

Keywords: stress concentration, finite element analysis, finite element models, combined loading

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Authors: Shahab Mirzaean Mahabadi, Elham Ebrahimi

Abstract:

The urban development process in the historical urban context has predominately witnessed two main approaches: the first is the Preservation and conservation of the urban fabric and its value, and the second approach is urban renewal and redevelopment. The latter is generally supported by political and economic aspirations. These two approaches conflict evidently. The authors go through the history of urban planning in order to review the historical development of the mentioned approaches. In this article, various values which are inherent in the historical fabric of a city are illustrated by emphasizing on cultural identity and activity. In the following, it is tried to find an optimized plan which maximizes economic development and minimizes change in historical-cultural sites simultaneously. In the proposed model, regarding the decision maker’s intention, and the variety of functions, the selected zone is divided into a number of components. For each component, different alternatives can be assigned, namely, renovation, refurbishment, destruction, and change in function. The decision Variable in this model is to choose an alternative for each component. A set of decisions made upon all components results in a plan. A plan developed in this way can be evaluated based on the decision maker’s point of view. That is, interactions between selected alternatives can make a foundation for the assessment of urban context to design a historical-cultural landscape. A genetic algorithm (GA) approach is used to search for optimal future land use within the historical-culture landscape for a sustainable high-growth city.

Keywords: urban sustainability, green city, regeneration, genetic algorithm

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Authors: Alexander Heckman, Rohan Goswami, Zachi Attia, Paul Friedman, Peter Noseworthy, Demilade Adedinsewo, Pablo Moreno-Franco, Rickey Carter, Tathagat Narula

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Background: Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is associated with adverse health consequences, higher costs, and longer hospital stays. Utilizing existing predictive models that rely on clinical variables and circulating biomarkers, multiple societies have published recommendations on the treatment and prevention of POAF. Although reasonably practical, there is room for improvement and automation to help individualize treatment strategies and reduce associated complications. Methods and Results: In this retrospective cohort study of solid organ transplant recipients, we evaluated the diagnostic utility of a previously developed AI-based ECG prediction for silent AF on the development of POAF within 30 days of transplant. A total of 2261 non-cardiac transplant patients without a preexisting diagnosis of AF were found to have a 5.8% (133/2261) incidence of POAF. While there were no apparent sex differences in POAF incidence (5.8% males vs. 6.0% females, p=.80), there were differences by race and ethnicity (p<0.001 and 0.035, respectively). The incidence in white transplanted patients was 7.2% (117/1628), whereas the incidence in black patients was 1.4% (6/430). Lung transplant recipients had the highest incidence of postoperative AF (17.4%, 37/213), followed by liver (5.6%, 56/1002) and kidney (3.6%, 32/895) recipients. The AUROC in the sample was 0.62 (95% CI: 0.58-0.67). The relatively low discrimination may result from undiagnosed AF in the sample. In particular, 1,177 patients had at least 1 AI-ECG screen for AF pre-transplant above .10, a value slightly higher than the published threshold of 0.08. The incidence of POAF in the 1104 patients without an elevated prediction pre-transplant was lower (3.7% vs. 8.0%; p<0.001). While this supported the hypothesis that potentially undiagnosed AF may have contributed to the diagnosis of POAF, the utility of the existing AI-ECG screening algorithm remained modest. When the prediction for POAF was made using the first postoperative ECG in the sample without an elevated screen pre-transplant (n=1084 on account of n=20 missing postoperative ECG), the AUROC was 0.66 (95% CI: 0.57-0.75). While this discrimination is relatively low, at a threshold of 0.08, the AI-ECG algorithm had a 98% (95% CI: 97 – 99%) negative predictive value at a sensitivity of 66% (95% CI: 49-80%). Conclusions: This study's principal finding is that the incidence of POAF is rare, and a considerable fraction of the POAF cases may be latent and undiagnosed. The high negative predictive value of AI-ECG screening suggests utility for prioritizing monitoring and evaluation on transplant patients with a positive AI-ECG screening. Further development and refinement of a post-transplant-specific algorithm may be warranted further to enhance the diagnostic yield of the ECG-based screening.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, atrial fibrillation, cardiology, transplant, medicine, ECG, machine learning

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Authors: Koe Han Beng, Khoo Boo Cheong

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The rising interest of stepped hull design has been led by the demand of more efficient high-speed boat. At the same time, the need of accurate prediction method for stepped planing hull is getting more important. By understanding the flow at high Froude number is the key in designing a practical step hull, the study surrounding stepped hull has been done mainly in the towing tank which is time-consuming and costly for initial design phase. Here the feasibility of predicting hydrodynamics of high-speed planing hull both with and without step using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) with the volume of fluid (VOF) methodology is studied in this work. First the flow around the prismatic body is analyzed, the force generated and its center of pressure are compared with available experimental and empirical data from the literature. The wake behind the transom on the keel line as well as the quarter beam buttock line are then compared with the available data, this is important since the afterbody flow of stepped hull is subjected from the wake of the forebody. Finally the calm water performance prediction of a conventional planing hull and its stepped version is then analyzed. Overset mesh methodology is employed in solving the dynamic equilibrium of the hull. The resistance, trim, and heave are then compared with the experimental data. The resistance is found to be predicted well and the dynamic equilibrium solved by the numerical method is deemed to be acceptable. This means that computational fluid dynamics will be very useful in further study on the complex flow around stepped hull and its potential usage in the design phase.

Keywords: planing hulls, stepped hulls, wake shape, numerical simulation, hydrodynamics

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Authors: Maletsema Alina Mofokeng, Nemera Shargie

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Sorghum is one of the most important cereal crops grown as a source of calories for many people in tropics and sub-tropics of the world. Proper characterisation and evaluation of crop germplasm is an important component for effective management of genetic resources and their utilisation in the improvement of the crop through plant breeding. The objective of the study was to estimate the genetic diversity present in sorghum accessions grown in South Africa using agro-morphological traits and some nutritional contents. The experiment was carried out in Potchefstroom. Data were subjected to correlations, principal components analysis, and hierarchical clustering using GenStat statistical software. There were highly significance differences among the accessions based on agro-morphological and nutritional quality traits. Grain yield was highly positively correlated with panicle weight. Plant height was highly significantly correlated with internode length, leaf length, leaf number, stem diameter, the number of nodes and starch content. The Principal component analysis revealed three most important PCs with a total variation of 78.6%. The protein content ranged from 7.7 to 14.7%, and starch ranged from 58.52 to 80.44%. The accessions that had high protein and starch content were AS16cyc and MP4277. There was vast genetic diversity observed among the accessions assessed that can be used by plant breeders to improve yield and nutritional traits.

Keywords: accessions, genetic diversity, nutritional quality, sorghum

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Authors: Gopalasingam Daisan

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Landmines and ammunitions have been creating a significant threat to the people and animals, after the war, the landmines remain in the land and it plays a vital role in civilian’s security. Especially the Children are at the highest risk because they are curious. After all, an unexploded bomb can look like a tempting toy to an inquisitive child. The initial step of designing the UAS (Unmanned Aircraft Systems) for landmine detection is to choose an appropriate and effective sensor to locate the landmines and other unexploded ammunitions. The sensor weight and other components related to the sensor supporting device’s weight are taken as a payload weight. The mission requirement is to find the landmines in a particular area by making a proper path that will cover all the vicinity in the desired area. The weight estimation of the UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) can be estimated by various techniques discovered previously with good accuracy at the first phase of the design. The next crucial part of the design is to calculate the power requirement and the wing loading calculations. The matching plot techniques are used to determine the thrust-to-weight ratio, and this technique makes this process not only easiest but also precisely. The wing loading can be calculated easily from the stall equation. After these calculations, the wing area is determined from the wing loading equation and the required power is calculated from the thrust to weight ratio calculations. According to the power requirement, an appropriate engine can be selected from the available engine from the market. And the wing geometric parameter is chosen based on the conceptual sketch. The important steps in the wing design to choose proper aerofoil and which will ensure to create sufficient lift coefficient to satisfy the requirements. The next component is the tail; the tail area and other related parameters can be estimated or calculated to counteract the effect of the wing pitching moment. As the vertical tail design depends on many parameters, the initial sizing only can be done in this phase. The fuselage is another major component, which is selected based on the slenderness ratio, and also the shape is determined on the sensor size to fit it under the fuselage. The landing gear is one of the important components which is selected based on the controllability and stability requirements. The minimum and maximum wheel track and wheelbase can be determined based on the crosswind and overturn angle requirements. The minor components of the landing gear design and estimation are not the focus of this project. Another important task is to calculate the weight of the major components and it is going to be estimated using empirical relations and also the mass is added to each such component. The CG and moment of inertia are also determined to each component separately. The sensitivity of the weight calculation is taken into consideration to avoid extra material requirements and also reduce the cost of the design. Finally, the aircraft performance is calculated, especially the V-n (velocity and load factor) diagram for different flight conditions such as not disturbed and with gust velocity.

Keywords: landmine, UAS, matching plot, optimization

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Authors: Andy Zhang, Awnik Roy, Trevor B. Chen, Bibik Oleksandr, Subodh Adhikari, Paul S. Hsu

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The durability of a combustor in gas-turbine enginesrequiresa good control of its component temperatures. Since the temperature of combustion gases frequently exceeds the melting point of the combustion liner walls, an efficient air-cooling system is significantly important to elongatethe lifetime of liner walls. To determine the effectiveness of the air-cooling system, accurate 2D surface temperature measurement of combustor liner walls is crucial for advanced engine development. Traditional diagnostic techniques for temperature measurement, such as thermocouples, thermal wall paints, pyrometry, and phosphors, have shown disadvantages, including being intrusive and affecting local flame/flow dynamics, potential flame quenching, and physical damages to instrumentation due to harsh environments inside the combustor and strong optical interference from strong combustion emission in UV-Mid IR wavelength. To overcome these drawbacks, a compact and small borescope long-wave-infrared (LWIR) sensor is developed to achieve two-dimensional high-spatial resolution, high-fidelity thermal imaging of 2D surface temperature in gas-turbine engines, providing the desired engine component temperature distribution. The compactLWIRborescope sensor makes it feasible to promote the durability of combustor in gas-turbine engines.

Keywords: borescope, engine, long-wave-infrared, sensor

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Authors: Muhammad Luthfi, Sutikno Sutikno, Purhadi Purhadi

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Weather forecast has necessarily been improved to provide the communities an accurate and objective prediction as well. To overcome such issue, the numerical-based weather forecast was extensively developed to reduce the subjectivity of forecast. Yet the Numerical Weather Predictions (NWPs) outputs are unfortunately issued without taking dynamical weather behavior and local terrain features into account. Thus, NWPs outputs are not able to accurately forecast the weather quantities, particularly for medium and long range forecast. The aim of this research is to aid and extend the development of ensemble forecast for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency of Indonesia. Ensemble method is an approach combining various deterministic forecast to produce more reliable one. However, such forecast is biased and uncalibrated due to its underdispersive or overdispersive nature. As one of the parametric methods, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) generates the calibrated ensemble forecast and constructs predictive PDF for specified period. Such method is able to utilize ensemble of any size but does not take spatial correlation into account. Whereas space dependencies involve the site of interest and nearby site, influenced by dynamic weather behavior. Meanwhile, Geostatistical Output Perturbation (GOP) reckons the spatial correlation to generate future weather quantities, though merely built by a single deterministic forecast, and is able to generate an ensemble of any size as well. This research conducts both BMA and GOP to generate the calibrated ensemble forecast for the daily temperature at few meteorological sites nearby Indonesia international airport.

Keywords: Bayesian Model Averaging, ensemble forecast, geostatistical output perturbation, numerical weather prediction, temperature

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Authors: Hee Yong Kang, Hyeon Ho Shin, Jung Cheol Yoo, Il Taek Lee, Sung Mo Yang

Abstract:

Lightweight technology using composites is being developed for vehicle seat structures, and its design must meet the safety requirements. According to the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard (FMVSS) 207 seating systems test procedure, the back moment load is applied to the seat back frame structure for the safety evaluation of the vehicle seat. The seat back frame using the composites is divided into three parts: upper part frame, and left- and right-side frame parts following the manufacturing process. When a rear moment load is applied to the seat back frame, the side frame receives the bending load and the torsional load at the same time. This results in the largest loaded strength. Therefore, strength test of the component unit is required. In this study, a component test method based on the FMVSS 207 seating systems test procedure was proposed for the strength analysis of bending load and torsional load of the automotive Bulk Molding Compound (BMC) Seat Back Side Frame. Moreover, strength evaluation according to the carbon band reinforcement was performed. The back-side frame parts of the seat that are applied to the test were manufactured through BMC that is composed of vinyl ester Matrix and short carbon fiber. Then, two kinds of reinforced and non-reinforced parts of carbon band were formed through a high-temperature compression molding process. In addition, the structure that is applied to the component test was constructed by referring to the FMVSS 207. Then, the bending load and the torsional load were applied through the displacement control to perform the strength test for four load conditions. The results of each test are shown through the load-displacement curves of the specimen. The failure strength of the parts caused by the reinforcement of the carbon band was analyzed. Additionally, the fracture characteristics of the parts for four strength tests were evaluated, and the weakness structure of the back-side frame of the seat structure was confirmed according to the test conditions. Through the bending and torsional strength test methods, we confirmed the strength and fracture characteristics of BMC Seat Back Side Frame according to the carbon band reinforcement. And we proposed a method of testing the part strength of a seat back frame for vehicles that can meet the FMVSS 207.

Keywords: seat back frame, bending and torsional strength, BMC (Bulk Molding Compound), FMVSS 207 seating systems

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Authors: Alvaro Aguinaga, Carlos Avila, Edgar Cando

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This article proposes a n-layer architecture, with a web client as a front-end, for the development of a virtual platform for process simulation on CNC machines. This Open-Source platform includes a CAD-CAM interface drawing primitives, and then used to furnish a CNC program that triggers a touch-screen virtual simulator. The objectives of this project are twofold. First one is an educational component that fosters new alternatives for the CAD-CAM/CNC learning process in undergrad and grade schools and technical and technological institutes emphasizing in the development of critical skills, discussion and collaborative work. The second objective puts together a research and technological component that will take the state of the art in CAD-CAM integration to a new level with the development of optimal algorithms and virtual platforms, on-line availability, that will pave the way for the long-term goal of this project, that is, to have a visible and active graduate school in Ecuador and a world wide Open-Innovation community in the area of CAD-CAM integration and operation of CNC machinery. The virtual platform, developed as a part of this study: (1) delivers improved training process of students, (2) creates a multidisciplinary team and a collaborative work space that will push the new generation of students to face future technological challenges, (3) implements industry standards for CAD/CAM, (4) presents a platform for the development of industrial applications. A protoype of this system was developed and implemented in a network of universities and technological institutes in Ecuador.

Keywords: CAD-CAM integration, virtual platforms, CNC machines, multi-layer based architecture

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Authors: Abdolghani Ebrahimi, Diego Klabjan, Chenxi Ge, Daniela Ladner, Parker Stride

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In this work, we use machine learning and novel data analysis techniques to predict the one-year mortality of cirrhotic patients. Data from 2,322 patients with liver cirrhosis are collected at a single medical center. Different machine learning models are applied to predict one-year mortality. A comprehensive feature space including demographic information, comorbidity, clinical procedure and laboratory tests is being analyzed. A temporal pattern mining technic called Frequent Subgraph Mining (FSM) is being used. Model for End-stage liver disease (MELD) prediction of mortality is used as a comparator. All of our models statistically significantly outperform the MELD-score model and show an average 10% improvement of the area under the curve (AUC). The FSM technic itself does not improve the model significantly, but FSM, together with a machine learning technique called an ensemble, further improves the model performance. With the abundance of data available in healthcare through electronic health records (EHR), existing predictive models can be refined to identify and treat patients at risk for higher mortality. However, due to the sparsity of the temporal information needed by FSM, the FSM model does not yield significant improvements. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to apply modern machine learning algorithms and data analysis methods on predicting one-year mortality of cirrhotic patients and builds a model that predicts one-year mortality significantly more accurate than the MELD score. We have also tested the potential of FSM and provided a new perspective of the importance of clinical features.

Keywords: machine learning, liver cirrhosis, subgraph mining, supervised learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 127