Search results for: autoregressive moving average model

Authors: Remo Waser, Simon Maranda, Anastasia Stamatiou, Ludger J. Fischer, Joerg Worlitschek

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In latent heat storage, a phase change material (PCM) is used to store thermal energy. The heat transfer rate during solidification is limited and considered as a key challenge in the development of latent heat storages. Thus, finned heat exchangers (HEX) are often utilized to increase the heat transfer rate of the storage system. In this study, a new modeling approach to calculating the heat transfer rate in latent thermal energy storages with complex HEX geometries is presented. This model allows for an optimization of the HEX design in terms of costs and thermal performance of the system. Modeling solidification processes requires the calculation of time-dependent heat conduction with moving boundaries. Commonly used computational fluid dynamic (CFD) methods enable the analysis of the heat transfer in complex HEX geometries. If applied to the entire storage, the drawback of this approach is the high computational effort due to small time steps and fine computational grids required for accurate solutions. An alternative to describe the process of solidification is the so-called temperature-based approach. In order to minimize the computational effort, a quasi-stationary assumption can be applied. This approach provides highly accurate predictions for tube heat exchangers. However, it shows unsatisfactory results for more complex geometries such as finned tube heat exchangers. The presented simulation model uses a temporal and spatial discretization of heat exchanger tube. The spatial discretization is based on the smallest possible symmetric segment of the HEX. The heat flow in each segment is calculated using finite volume method. Since the heat transfer fluid temperature can be derived using energy conservation equations, the boundary conditions at the inner tube wall is dynamically updated for each time step and segment. The model allows a prediction of the thermal performance of latent thermal energy storage systems using complex HEX geometries with considerably low computational effort.

Keywords: modelling of solidification, finned tube heat exchanger, latent thermal energy storage

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Authors: Kalpana Rajouriya, Ajay Taneja

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Particulates are ubiquitous in the air environment and cause serious threats to human beings, such as lung cancer, COPD, and Asthma. Particulates mainly arise from industrial effluent, vehicular emission, and other anthropogenic activities. In the glass industrial city Firozabad, real-time monitoring of size segregated Particulate Matter (PM) and black carbon was done by Aerosol Black Carbon Detector (ABCD) and GRIMM portable aerosol Spectrometer at two different sites in which one site is urban and another is rural. The average mass concentration of size segregated PM during the study period (March & April 2022) was recorded as PM10 (223.73 g/m⁻³), PM5.0 (44.955 g/m⁻³), PM2.5 (59.275 g/m⁻³), PM1.0 (33.02 g/m⁻³), PM0.5 (2.05 g/m⁻³), and PM0.25 (2.99 g/m⁻³). The highest concentration of BC was found in Urban due to the emissions from diesel engines and wood burning, while NO2 was highest at the rural sites. The average concentrations of PM10 (6.08 and 2.73 times) PM2.5 exceeded the NAAQS and WHO guidelines. Particulate Matter deposition and health risk assessment was done by MPPD and USEPA model to know about the particulate matter toxicity in industrial residents. Health risk assessment results showed that Children are most likely to be affected by exposure of PM10 and PM2.5 and may have various non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic diseases. Deposition results inferred that the sensitive exposed population, especially 9 years old children, have high PM deposition as well as visualization and may be at risk of developing health-related problems from exposure to size-segregated PM. They will be discussed during presentation.

Keywords: particulate matter, black carbon, NO2, deposition of PM, health risk

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Authors: Pradapet Krutchangthong, Jirawat Sudsawart

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This research aims to study the health tourism administration and factors related to health tourism promotion at Ban Nam Chieo Community, Laem Ngop, Trat Province. The sample in this research is 361 tourists who use the service and Ban Nam Chieo Community residents who provide the service. Sampling was done from a population size of 3,780 using Taro Yamane’s formula. The tools used in the study were questionnaires and interviews. The statistics used in this research are percentage, mean and standard deviation. The result of Model Development of Health Tourism at Ban Nam Chieo Community, Laem Ngop , Trat Province shows that most of them are female with bachelor degree. They are government officers with an average income between 16,001-20,000 Baht. Suggested health system activities for health tourism development are: 1) health massage, 2) herbal compress, 3) exercise in the water by walking on shell. Meanwhile, factors related to health tourism promotion at Ban Nam Chieo Community, Laem Ngop, Trat Province are: 1) understanding the context of the community and service providers, 2) cooperation from related government and private sectors.

Keywords: health tourism, health system activities, promotion, administration

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Authors: Yi-Guang Li, Suresh Sampath

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Gas turbine performance degrades over time, and the degradation is greatly affected by environmental, ambient, and operating conditions. The engines may degrade slowly under favorable conditions and result in a waste of engine life if a scheduled maintenance scheme is followed. They may also degrade fast and fail before a scheduled overhaul if the conditions are unfavorable, resulting in serious secondary damage, loss of engine availability, and increased maintenance costs. To overcome these problems, gas turbine owners are gradually moving from scheduled maintenance to condition-based maintenance, where condition monitoring is one of the key supporting technologies. This paper presents an integrated adaptive GPA diagnostics and performance monitoring system developed at Cranfield University for gas turbine gas path condition monitoring. It has the capability to predict the performance degradation of major gas path components of gas turbine engines, such as compressors, combustors, and turbines, using gas path measurement data. It is also able to predict engine key performance parameters for condition monitoring, such as turbine entry temperature that cannot be directly measured. The developed technology has been implemented into digital twin computer Software, Pythia, to support the condition monitoring of gas turbine engines. The capabilities of the integrated GPA condition monitoring system are demonstrated in three test cases using a model gas turbine engine similar to the GE aero-derivative LM2500 engine widely used in power generation and marine propulsion. It shows that when the compressor of the model engine degrades, the Adaptive GPA is able to predict the degradation and the changing engine performance accurately using gas path measurements. Such a presented technology and software are generic, can be applied to different types of gas turbine engines, and provide crucial engine health and performance parameters to support condition monitoring and condition-based maintenance.

Keywords: gas turbine, adaptive GPA, performance, diagnostics, condition monitoring

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Authors: Omar Abdalla, Abdelfatah Ahmed, Ahmed Mustafa, Abdelazem Eldouma

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The purpose of this study is evaluating the effect of extremely low frequency magnetic field on Waster rats brain. The number of rats used in this study were 25, which were divided into five groups, each group containing five rats as follows: Group 1: The control group which was not exposed to energized field; Group 2: Rats were exposed to a magnetic field with an intensity of 0.6 mT (2 hours/day); Group 3: Rats were exposed to a magnetic field of 1.2 mT (2 hours/day); Group4: Rats were exposed to a magnetic field of 1.8 mT (2 hours/day); Group 5: Rats were exposed to a magnetic field of 2.4 mT (2 hours/day) and all groups were exposed for seven days, by designing a maze and calculating the time average for arriving to the decoy at special conditions. We found the time average before exposure for the all groups was G2=330 s, G3=172 s, G4=500 s and G5=174 s, respectively. We exposed all groups to ELF-MF and measured the time and we found: G2=465 s, G3=388 s, G4=501 s, and G5=442 s. It was observed that the time average increased directly with field strength. Histological samples of frontal lop of brain for all groups were taken and we found lesion, atrophy, empty vacuoles and disorder choroid plexus at frontal lope of brain. And finally we observed the disorder of choroid plexus in histological results and Alzheimer's symptoms increase when the magnetic field increases.

Keywords: nonionizing radiation, biophysics, magnetic field, shrinkage

Procedia PDF Downloads 524

Authors: V. Moser-Siegmeth, M. C. Gambal, M. Jelovcak, B. Prytek, I. Swietalsky, D. Würzl, C. Fida, V. Mühlegger

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Adaptability is the capacity to adjust without great difficulty to changing circumstances. Within our project, we aimed to detect whether older people living within a long-term care hospital lose the ability to adapt. Theoretical concepts are contradictory in their statements. There is also lack of evidence in the literature how the adaptability of older people changes over the time. Following research questions were generated: Are older residents of a long-term care facility able to adapt to changes within their daily routine? How long does it take for older people to adapt? The study was designed as a convergent parallel mixed method intervention study, carried out within a four-month period and took place within seven wards of a long-term care hospital. As a planned intervention, a change of meal-times was established. The inhabitants were surveyed with qualitative interviews and quantitative questionnaires and diaries before, during and after the intervention. In addition, a survey of the nursing staff was carried out in order to detect changes of the people they care for and how long it took them to adapt. Quantitative data was analysed with SPSS, qualitative data with a summarizing content analysis. The average age of the involved residents was 82 years, the average length of stay 45 months. The adaptation to new situations does not cause problems for older residents. 47% of the residents state that their everyday life has not changed by changing the meal times. 24% indicate ‘neither nor’ and only 18% respond that their daily life has changed considerably due to the changeover. The diaries of the residents, which were conducted over the entire period of investigation showed no changes with regard to increased or reduced activity. With regard to sleep quality, assessed with the Pittsburgh sleep quality index, there is little change in sleep behaviour compared to the two survey periods (pre-phase to follow-up phase) in the cross-table. The subjective sleep quality of the residents is not affected. The nursing staff points out that, with good information in advance, changes are not a problem. The ability to adapt to changes does not deteriorate with age or by moving into a long-term care facility. It only takes a few days to get used to new situations. This can be confirmed by the nursing staff. Although there are different determinants like the health status that might make an adjustment to new situations more difficult. In connection with the limitations, the small sample size of the quantitative data collection must be emphasized. Furthermore, the extent to which the quantitative and qualitative sample represents the total population, since only residents without cognitive impairments of selected units participated. The majority of the residents has cognitive impairments. It is important to discuss whether and how well the diary method is suitable for older people to examine their daily structure.

Keywords: adaptability, intervention study, mixed methods, nursing home residents

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Authors: K. Khanafer

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The aim of this investigation was to validate the fluid-structure interaction (FSI) model of type B aortic dissection with our experimental results from a bench-top-model. Another objective was to study the relationship between the size of a septectomy that increases the outflow of the false lumen and its effect on the values of the differential of pressure between true lumen and false lumen. FSI analysis based on Galerkin’s formulation was used in this investigation to study flow pattern and hemodynamics within a flexible type B aortic dissection model using boundary conditions from our experimental data. The numerical results of our model were verified against the experimental data for various tear size and location. Thus, CFD tools have a potential role in evaluating different scenarios and aortic dissection configurations.

Keywords: aortic dissection, fluid-structure interaction, in vitro model, numerical

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Authors: Wanessa G. Oliveira, Fernando C. Capovilla

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Capovilla and Raphael’s Libras Dictionary documents a corpus of 4,200 Brazilian Sign Language (Libras) signs. Duduchi and Capovilla’s software SignTracking permits users to retrieve signs even when ignoring the gloss corresponding to it and to discover the meaning of all 4,200 signs sign simply by clicking on graphic menus of the sign characteristics (phonemes). Duduchi and Capovilla have discovered that the ease with which any given sign can be retrieved is an inverse function of the average popularity of its component phonemes. Thus, signs composed of rare (distinct) phonemes are easier to retrieve than are those composed of common phonemes. SignTracking offers a means of computing the average popularity of the phonemes that make up each one of 4,200 signs. It provides a precise measure of the degree of ease with which signs can be retrieved, and sign meanings can be discovered. Duduchi and Capovilla’s logarithmic model proved valid: The degree with which any given sign can be retrieved is an inverse function of the arithmetic mean of the logarithm of the popularity of each component phoneme. Capovilla, Raphael and Mauricio’s New Libras Dictionary documents a corpus of 10,400 Libras signs. The present analysis revealed Libras DNA structure by mapping the incidence of 501 sign phonemes resulting from the layered distribution of five parameters: 163 handshape phonemes (CherEmes-ManusIculi); 34 finger shape phonemes (DactilEmes-DigitumIculi); 55 hand placement phonemes (ArtrotoToposEmes-ArticulatiLocusIculi); 173 movement dimension phonemes (CinesEmes-MotusIculi) pertaining to direction, frequency, and type; and 76 Facial Expression phonemes (MascarEmes-PersonalIculi).

Keywords: Brazilian sign language, lexical retrieval, libras sign, sign phonology

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Authors: I. Alhajri, G. Zahedi, R. Alazmi, A. Akbari

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In this paper, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was developed to predict Asphaltene Precipitation (AP) during the injection of carbon dioxide into crude oil reservoirs. In this study, the experimental data from six different oil fields were collected. Seventy percent of the data was used to develop the ANN model, and different ANN architectures were examined. A network with the Trainlm training algorithm was found to be the best network to estimate the AP. To check the validity of the proposed model, the model was used to predict the AP for the thirty percent of the data that was unevaluated. The Mean Square Error (MSE) of the prediction was 0.0018, which confirms the excellent prediction capability of the proposed model. In the second part of this study, the ANN model predictions were compared with modified Hirschberg model predictions. The ANN was found to provide more accurate estimates compared to the modified Hirschberg model. Finally, the proposed model was employed to examine the effect of different operating parameters during gas injection on the AP. It was found that the AP is mostly sensitive to the reservoir temperature. Furthermore, the carbon dioxide concentration in liquid phase increases the AP.

Keywords: artificial neural network, asphaltene, CO2 injection, Hirschberg model, oil reservoirs

Procedia PDF Downloads 352

Authors: Hamidreza Hoshyarmanesh, Hosein Madieh, Sanju Lama, Yaser Maddahi, Garnette R. Sutherland, Kourosh Zareinia

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This paper illustrates the concept of an algorithm to register specified markers on the neuroArm surgical manipulators, an image-guided MR-compatible tele-operated robot for microsurgery and stereotaxy. Two range-finding algorithms, namely time-of-flight and phase-shift, are evaluated for registration and supervisory control. The time-of-flight approach is implemented in a semi-field experiment to determine the precise position of a tiny retro-reflective moving object. The moving object simulates a surgical tool tip. The tool is a target that would be connected to the neuroArm end-effector during surgery inside the magnet bore of the MR imaging system. In order to apply flight approach, a 905-nm pulsed laser diode and an avalanche photodiode are utilized as the transmitter and receiver, respectively. For the experiment, a high frequency time to digital converter was designed using a field-programmable gate arrays. In the phase-shift approach, a continuous green laser beam with a wavelength of 530 nm was used as the transmitter. Results showed that a positioning error of 0.1 mm occurred when the scanner-target point distance was set in the range of 2.5 to 3 meters. The effectiveness of this non-contact approach exhibited that the method could be employed as an alternative for conventional mechanical registration arm. Furthermore, the approach is not limited by physical contact and extension of joint angles.

Keywords: 3D laser scanner, intraoperative MR imaging, neuroArm, real time registration, robot-assisted surgery, supervisory control

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Authors: Saadia Drissi

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The cloud computing is an innovative paradigm that introduces several changes in technology that have resulted a new ways for cloud providers to deliver their services to cloud consumers mainly in term of security risk assessment, thus, adapting a current risk assessment tools to cloud computing is a very difficult task due to its several characteristics that challenge the effectiveness of risk assessment approaches. As consequence, there is a need of risk assessment model adapted to cloud computing. This paper requires a new risk assessment model based on multi-agent system and AHP model as fundamental steps towards the development of flexible risk assessment approach regarding cloud consumers.

Keywords: cloud computing, risk assessment model, multi-agent system, AHP model, cloud consumer

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Authors: L. Sun, O. Bloom, K. Anderson

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The medial and lateral sural artery perforator flaps (MSAP and LSAP, respectively) are two recently described flaps that are less commonly used in lower limb trauma reconstructive surgeries compared to flaps such as the anterolateral thigh (ALT) flap or the gastrocnemius flap. The LSAP flap has several theoretical benefits over the MSAP, including the ability to be sensate and being more easily manoeuvred into position as a local flap for coverage of lateral knee or leg defects. It is less commonly used in part due to a lack of documented studies of the anatomical reliability of the perforator, and an unquantified average length of the pedicle used for microsurgical anastomosis (if used as a free flap) or flap rotation (if used as a pedicled flap). It has been shown to have significantly lower donor site morbidity compared to other flaps such as the ALT, due to the decreased need for intramuscular dissection and resulting in less muscle loss at the donor site. 11 cadaveric lower limbs were dissected, with a mean of 1.6 perforators per leg, with an average pedicle length of 45mm to the sural artery and 70mm to the popliteal artery. While the majority of perforating arteries lay close to the midline (average of 19mm lateral to the midline), there were patients whose artery was significantly lateral and would have been likely injured by the initial incision during an operation. Adding to the literature base of documented LSAP dissections provides a greater understanding of the anatomical basis of these perforator flaps, and the authors hope this will establish them as a more commonly used and discussed option when managing complicated lower limb trauma requiring soft tissue reconstruction.

Keywords: cadaveric, dissection, lateral, perforator flap, sural artery, surface anatomy

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Authors: Renalda El Samra, Elie Bou-Zeid, Hamza Kunhu Bangalath, Georgiy Stenchikov, Mutasem El Fadel

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The regional-scale impact of climate change over complex terrain was examined through high-resolution dynamic downscaling conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with initial and boundary conditions from a High-Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM). The analysis was conducted over the eastern Mediterranean, with a focus on the country of Lebanon, which is characterized by a challenging complex topography that magnifies the effect of orographic precipitation. Four year-long WRF simulations, selected based on HiRAM time series, were performed to generate future climate projections of extreme temperature and precipitation over the study area under the conditions of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5. One past WRF simulation year, 2008, was selected as a baseline to capture dry extremes of the system. The results indicate that the study area might be exposed to a temperature increase between 1.0 and 3ºC in summer mean values by 2050, in comparison to 2008. For extreme years, the decrease in average annual precipitation may exceed 50% at certain locations in comparison to 2008.

Keywords: HiRAM, regional climate modeling, WRF, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)

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Authors: Eti Dwi Wiraningsih, Folashade Agusto, Lina Aryati, Syamsuddin Toaha, Suzanne Lenhart, Widodo, Willy Govaerts

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This paper considers a deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of rabies virus in the wild dogs-domestic dogs-human zoonotic cycle. The effect of vaccination and culling in dogs is considered on the model, then the stability was analysed to get basic reproduction number. We use the next generation matrix method and Routh-Hurwitz test to analyze the stability of the Disease-Free Equilibrium and Endemic Equilibrium of this model.

Keywords: stability analysis, rabies model, vaccination effect, culling in dogs

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Authors: Kamal, J. P. Narayan

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In the present wok the effects of basin-shape-ratio on the frequency content and spectral amplitudes of the basin-generated surface waves and the associated spatial variation of ground motion amplification and differential ground motion in a 3D semi-spherical basin has been studied. A recently developed 3D fourth-order spatial accurate time-domain finite-difference (FD) algorithm based on the parsimonious staggered-grid approximation of the 3D viscoelastic wave equations was used to estimate seismic responses. The simulated results demonstrated the increase of both the frequency content and the spectral amplitudes of the basin-generated surface waves and the duration of ground motion in the basin with the increase of shape-ratio of semi-spherical basin. An increase of the average spectral amplification (ASA), differential ground motion (DGM) and the average aggravation factor (AAF) towards the centre of the semi-spherical basin was obtained.

Keywords: 3D viscoelastic simulation, basin-generated surface waves, basin-shape-ratio effects, average spectral amplification, aggravation factors and differential ground motion

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Authors: Lakrim Abderrazak, Tahri Driss

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This paper presents a new behavioural electrothermal model of power Silicon Carbide (SiC) MOSFET under SPICE. This model is based on the MOS model level 1 of SPICE, in which phenomena such as Drain Leakage Current IDSS, On-State Resistance RDSon, gate Threshold voltage VGSth, the transconductance (gfs), I-V Characteristics Body diode, temperature-dependent and self-heating are included and represented using behavioural blocks ABM (Analog Behavioural Models) of Spice library. This ultimately makes this model flexible and easily can be integrated into the various Spice -based simulation softwares. The internal junction temperature of the component is calculated on the basis of the thermal model through the electric power dissipated inside and its thermal impedance in the form of the localized Foster canonical network. The model parameters are extracted from manufacturers' data (curves data sheets) using polynomial interpolation with the method of simulated annealing (S A) and weighted least squares (WLS). This model takes into account the various important phenomena within transistor. The effectiveness of the presented model has been verified by Spice simulation results and as well as by data measurement for SiC MOS transistor C2M0025120D CREE (1200V, 90A).

Keywords: SiC power MOSFET, DC electro-thermal model, ABM Spice library, SPICE modelling, behavioural model, C2M0025120D CREE.

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Authors: Yulii D. Shikhmurzaev

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The modelling of the non-isothermal free-surface flows coupled with the solidification process has become the topic of intensive research with the advent of additive manufacturing, where complex 3-dimensional structures are produced by successive deposition and solidification of microscopic droplets of different materials. The issue is that both the spreading of liquids over solids and the propagation of the solidification front into the fluid and along the solid substrate pose fundamental difficulties for their mathematical modelling. The first of these processes, known as ‘dynamic wetting’, leads to the well-known ‘moving contact-line problem’ where, as shown recently both experimentally and theoretically, the contact angle formed by the free surfac with the solid substrate is not a function of the contact-line speed but is rather a functional of the flow field. The modelling of the propagating solidification front requires generalization of the classical Stefan problem, which would be able to describe the onset of the process and the non-equilibrium regime of solidification. Furthermore, given that both dynamic wetting and solification occur concurrently and interactively, they should be described within the same conceptual framework. The present work addresses this formidable problem and presents a mathematical model capable of describing the key element of additive manufacturing in a self-consistent and singularity-free way. The model is illustrated simple examples highlighting its main features. The main idea of the work is that both dynamic wetting and solidification, as well as some other fluid flows, are particular cases in a general class of flows where interfaces form and/or disappear. This conceptual framework allows one to derive a mathematical model from first principles using the methods of irreversible thermodynamics. Crucially, the interfaces are not considered as zero-mass entities introduced using Gibbsian ‘dividing surface’ but the 2-dimensional surface phases produced by the continuum limit in which the thickness of what physically is an interfacial layer vanishes, and its properties are characterized by ‘surface’ parameters (surface tension, surface density, etc). This approach allows for the mass exchange between the surface and bulk phases, which is the essence of the interface formation. As shown numerically, the onset of solidification is preceded by the pure interface formation stage, whilst the Stefan regime is the final stage where the temperature at the solidification front asymptotically approaches the solidification temperature. The developed model can also be applied to the flow with the substrate melting as well as a complex flow where both types of phase transition take place.

Keywords: dynamic wetting, interface formation, phase transition, solidification

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Authors: S. O. Oyamakin, A. U. Chukwu,

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We proposed a Hyperbolic Gompertz Growth Model (HGGM), which was developed by introducing a stabilizing parameter called θ using hyperbolic sine function into the classical gompertz growth equation. The resulting integral solution obtained deterministically was reprogrammed into a statistical model and used in modeling the height and diameter of Pines (Pinus caribaea). Its ability in model prediction was compared with the classical gompertz growth model, an approach which mimicked the natural variability of height/diameter increment with respect to age and therefore provides a more realistic height/diameter predictions using goodness of fit tests and model selection criteria. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Shapiro-Wilk test was also used to test the compliance of the error term to normality assumptions while using testing the independence of the error term using the runs test. The mean function of top height/Dbh over age using the two models under study predicted closely the observed values of top height/Dbh in the hyperbolic gompertz growth models better than the source model (classical gompertz growth model) while the results of R2, Adj. R2, MSE, and AIC confirmed the predictive power of the Hyperbolic Monomolecular growth models over its source model.

Keywords: height, Dbh, forest, Pinus caribaea, hyperbolic, gompertz

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Authors: Tiexin Wang, Sebastien Truptil, Frederick Benaben

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Model transformation, as a pivotal aspect of Model-driven engineering, attracts more and more attentions both from researchers and practitioners. Many domains (enterprise engineering, software engineering, knowledge engineering, etc.) use model transformation principles and practices to serve to their domain specific problems; furthermore, model transformation could also be used to fulfill the gap between different domains: by sharing and exchanging knowledge. Since model transformation has been widely used, there comes new requirement on it: effectively and efficiently define the transformation process and reduce manual effort that involved in. This paper presents an automatic model transformation methodology based on semantic and syntactic comparisons, and focuses particularly on granularity issue that existed in transformation process. Comparing to the traditional model transformation methodologies, this methodology serves to a general purpose: cross-domain methodology. Semantic and syntactic checking measurements are combined into a refined transformation process, which solves the granularity issue. Moreover, semantic and syntactic comparisons are supported by software tool; manual effort is replaced in this way.

Keywords: automatic model transformation, granularity issue, model-driven engineering, semantic and syntactic comparisons

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Authors: Addisu H. Addis, Hugh T. Blair, Paul R. Kenyon, Stephen T. Morris, Nicola M. Schreurs, Dorian J. Garrick

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Agent-based modeling (ABM) enables an in silico representation of complex systems and cap-tures agent behavior resulting from interaction with other agents and their environment. This study developed an ABM to represent a pasture-based beef cattle finishing systems in New Zea-land (NZ) using attributes of the rearer, finisher, and processor, as well as specific attributes of dairy-origin beef cattle. The model was parameterized using values representing 1% of NZ dairy-origin cattle, and 10% of rearers and finishers in NZ. The cattle agent consisted of 32% Holstein-Friesian, 50% Holstein-Friesian–Jersey crossbred, and 8% Jersey, with the remainder being other breeds. Rearers and finishers repetitively and simultaneously interacted to determine the type and number of cattle populating the finishing system. Rearers brought in four-day-old spring-born calves and reared them until 60 calves (representing a full truck load) on average had a live weight of 100 kg before selling them on to finishers. Finishers mainly attained weaners from rearers, or directly from dairy farmers when weaner demand was higher than the supply from rearers. Fast-growing cattle were sent for slaughter before the second winter, and the re-mainder were sent before their third winter. The model finished a higher number of bulls than heifers and steers, although it was 4% lower than the industry reported value. Holstein-Friesian and Holstein-Friesian–Jersey-crossbred cattle dominated the dairy-origin beef finishing system. Jersey cattle account for less than 5% of total processed beef cattle. Further studies to include re-tailer and consumer perspectives and other decision alternatives for finishing farms would im-prove the applicability of the model for decision-making processes.

Keywords: agent-based modelling, dairy cattle, beef finishing, rearers, finishers

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Authors: Karoliina Nisula, Samuli Pekkola

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Business education has been criticized for being too theoretical and distant from business life. Different types of experiential learning environments ranging from manual role-play to computer simulations and enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems have been used to introduce the realistic and practical experience into business learning. Each of these learning environments approaches business learning from a different perspective. The implementations tend to be individual exercises supplementing the traditional courses. We suggest combining them into a business skills laboratory resembling an actual workplace. In this paper, we present a concrete implementation of an ERP-supported business learning environment that is used throughout the first year undergraduate business curriculum. We validate the implementation by evaluating the learning outcomes through the different domains of Bloom’s taxonomy. We use the role-play oriented practice enterprise model as a comparison group. Our findings indicate that using the ERP simulation improves the poor and average students’ lower-level cognitive learning. On the affective domain, the ERP-simulation appears to enhance motivation to learn as well as perceived acquisition of practical hands-on skills.

Keywords: business simulations, experiential learning, ERP systems, learning environments

Procedia PDF Downloads 238

Authors: Kehinde Damilola Ilesanmi, Dev Datt Tewari

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South Africa is in its post-industrial era moving from the primary and secondary sector to the tertiary sector. The study investigated the impact of the disaggregated energy consumption (coal, oil, and electricity) on the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors of the economy between 1980 and 2012 in South Africa. Using vector error correction model, it was established that South Africa is an energy dependent economy, and that energy (especially electricity and oil) is a limiting factor of growth. This implies that implementation of energy conservation policies may hamper economic growth. Output growth is significantly outpacing energy supply, which has necessitated load shedding. To meet up the excess energy demand, there is a need to increase the generating capacity which will necessitate increased investment in the electricity sector as well as strategic steps to increase oil production. There is also need to explore more renewable energy sources, in order to meet the growing energy demand without compromising growth and environmental sustainability. Policy makers should also pursue energy efficiency policies especially at sectoral level of the economy.

Keywords: causality, economic growth, energy consumption, hypothesis, sectoral output

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Authors: Razieh Khalafi

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The brain is the information processing centre of the human body. Stimuli in the form of information are transferred to the brain and then brain makes the decision on how to respond to them. In this research, we propose a new partial differential equation which analyses the EEG signals and make a relationship between the incoming stimuli and the brain response to them. In order to test the proposed model, a set of external stimuli applied to the model and the model’s outputs were checked versus the real EEG data. The results show that this model can model the EEG signal well. The proposed model is useful not only for modelling of EEG signal in case external stimuli but it can be used for modelling of brain response in case of internal stimuli.

Keywords: brain, stimuli, partial differential equation, response, EEG signal

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Authors: Nargess Fasihmardanloo

Abstract:

The aim of this study was to comparatively study the motivations of women to physical activity in Iran and selected Arab countries Based on individual, social and Islamic components. The present study was a descriptive comparative study that was performed by field method. The statistical population of the study included female athletes in Iran and Arab countries. A total of 184 people from Iran and 179 people from Arab countries (Iraq, UAE, and Jordan) were selected through available sampling as a research sample. The research tool included a questionnaire. The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed and its reliability in a pilot study was 0.95 through Cronbach's alpha. The questionnaire was translated into Persian in Iran and translated into Arabic for the selected countries and was provided to the participants electronically and through cyberspace. Finally, 363 questionnaires were collected. Manova multivariate analysis of variance using spss22 software was used to analyze the data. Findings showed that between Iranian women athletes and women athletes in selected Arab countries in the components of intrapersonal motivation (p = 0.009 and f = 6.978), interpersonal motivation (p = 0.050 and f = 3.875), There is a significant difference between social motives (p = 0.001 and f = 27.619) and Islamic motives (p = 0.001 and f = 11.339). And this difference is significant at the level of p <0.01 and p <0.05. In other words, in the component of intrapersonal motivations, the average of this component in Iranian female athletes (M = 59.77) was higher than female athletes in selected Arab countries (M = 55.53). In the interpersonal motivations component, the average of this component in Iranian female athletes (M = 26.87) was lower than in female athletes in selected Arab countries (M = 28.62). In the component of social motivations, the average of this component in Iranian female athletes (M = 33.08) was lower than female athletes in selected Arab countries (M = 39.64). In the component of Islamic motives, the average of this component in Iranian female athletes (M = 21.55) was higher than female athletes in selected Arab countries (M = 19.04).

Keywords: athletes, motivation, women, Islamic

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Authors: Irtaza M. Syed, Kaamran Raahemifar

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This paper presents a model predictive control (MPC) of a utility interactive (UI) single phase inverter (SPI) for a photovoltaic (PV) system at residential/distribution level. The proposed model uses single-phase phase locked loop (PLL) to synchronize SPI with the grid and performs MPC control in a dq reference frame. SPI model consists of boost converter (BC), maximum power point tracking (MPPT) control, and a full bridge (FB) voltage source inverter (VSI). No PI regulators to tune and carrier and modulating waves are required to produce switching sequence. Instead, the operational model of VSI is used to synthesize sinusoidal current and track the reference. Model is validated using a three kW PV system at the input of UI-SPI in Matlab/Simulink. Implementation and results demonstrate simplicity and accuracy, as well as reliability of the model.

Keywords: phase locked loop, voltage source inverter, single phase inverter, model predictive control, Matlab/Simulink

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Authors: Muneer Abbad

Abstract:

This research explains the e-learning usage in a university in Jordan. Unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT) model has been used as a base model to explain the usage. UTAUT is a model of individual acceptance that is compiled mainly from different models of technology acceptance. This research is the initial part from full explanations of the users' acceptance model that use Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) method to explain the users' acceptance of the e-learning systems based on UTAUT model. In this part data has been collected and prepared for further analysis. The main factors of UTAUT model has been tested as different factors using exploratory factor analysis (EFA). The second phase will be confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and SEM to explain the users' acceptance of e-learning systems.

Keywords: e-learning, moodle, adoption, Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT)

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Authors: V. Benedico, C. Anacleto, A. Bearzi, L. Brice, V. Delahaye

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The aim in present paper is to construct an affordable and reliable commodity prices based on a recalculation of its cost through time which allows visualize the potential risks and thus, take more appropriate decisions regarding forecasts. Here attention has been focused on Levy model, more reliable and realistic than classical random Gaussian one as it takes into consideration observed abrupt jumps in case of sudden price variation. In application to Energy Trading sector where it has never been used before, equations corresponding to Levy model have been written for electricity pricing in European market. Parameters have been set in order to predict and simulate the price and its evolution through time to remarkable accuracy. As predicted by Levy model, the results show significant spikes which reach unconventional levels contrary to currently used Brownian model.

Keywords: commodity pricing, Lévy Model, price spikes, electricity market

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Authors: Dino Carpentras, Paul Maher, Caoimhe O'Reilly, Michael Quayle

Abstract:

Opinion dynamics is dedicated to modeling the dynamic evolution of people's opinions. Models in this field are based on a micro-dynamic rule, which determines how people update their opinion when interacting. Despite the high number of new models (many of them based on new rules), little research has been dedicated to experimentally validate the rule. A few studies started bridging this literature gap by experimentally testing the rule. However, in these studies, participants are forced to express their opinion as a number instead of using natural language. Furthermore, some of these studies average data from experimental questions, without testing if differences existed between them. Indeed, it is possible that different topics could show different dynamics. For example, people may be more prone to accepting someone's else opinion regarding less polarized topics. In this work, we collected data from 200 participants on 5 unpolarized topics. Participants expressed their opinions using natural language ('agree' or 'disagree') and the certainty of their answer, expressed as a number between 1 and 10. To keep the interaction based on natural language, certainty was not shown to other participants. We then showed to the participant someone else's opinion on the same topic and, after a distraction task, we repeated the measurement. To produce data compatible with standard opinion dynamics models, we multiplied the opinion (encoded as agree=1 and disagree=-1) with the certainty to obtain a single 'continuous opinion' ranging from -10 to 10. By analyzing the topics independently, we observed that each one shows a different initial distribution. However, the dynamics (i.e., the properties of the opinion change) appear to be similar between all topics. This suggested that the same micro-dynamic rule could be applied to unpolarized topics. Another important result is that participants that change opinion tend to maintain similar levels of certainty. This is in contrast with typical micro-dynamics rules, where agents move to an average point instead of directly jumping to the opposite continuous opinion. As expected, in the data, we also observed the effect of social influence. This means that exposing someone with 'agree' or 'disagree' influenced participants to respectively higher or lower values of the continuous opinion. However, we also observed random variations whose effect was stronger than the social influence’s one. We even observed cases of people that changed from 'agree' to 'disagree,' even if they were exposed to 'agree.' This phenomenon is surprising, as, in the standard literature, the strength of the noise is usually smaller than the strength of social influence. Finally, we also built an opinion dynamics model from the data. The model was able to explain more than 80% of the data variance. Furthermore, by iterating the model, we were able to produce polarized states even starting from an unpolarized population. This experimental approach offers a way to test the micro-dynamic rule. This also allows us to build models which are directly grounded on experimental results.

Keywords: experimental validation, micro-dynamic rule, opinion dynamics, update rule

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Authors: Hussien Ali, Mesfin Menza, Fitsum Hagos, Amare Haileslassie

Abstract:

Climate change has perverse effects on agricultural productivity and natural resource base, negatively affecting the well-being of the households and communities. The government and NGOs promote climate smart agricultural (CSA) practices to help farmers adapt to and mitigate the negative effects of climate change. This study aims to identify widely available CSA practices and examine their impacts on food security and multi-dimensional poverty of rural farm households in the Central Rift Valley, Ethiopia. Using three-stage proportional to size sampling procedure, the study randomly selected 278 households from two kebeles from four districts each. A cross-sectional data of 2020/21 cropping season was collected using structured and pretested survey questionnaire. Food consumption score, dietary diversity score, food insecurity experience scale, and multidimensional poverty index were calculated to measure households’ welfare indicators. Multinomial endogenous switching regression model was used to assess average treatment effects of CSA on these outcome indicators on adopter and non-adopter households. The results indicate that the widely adopted CSA practices in the area are conservation agriculture, soil fertility management, crop diversification, and small-scale irrigation. Adopter households have, on average, statistically higher food consumption score, dietary diversity score and lower food insecurity access scale than non-adopters. Moreover, adopter households, on average, have lower deprivation score in multidimensional poverty compared to non-adopter households. Up scaling the adoption of CSA practices through the improvement of households’ implementation capacity and better information, technical advice, and innovative financing mechanisms is advised. Up scaling CSA practices can further promote achieving global goals such as SDG 1, SDG 2, and SDG 13 targets, aimed to end poverty and hunger and mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change, respectively.

Keywords: climate-smart agriculture, food security, multidimensional poverty, upscaling CSA, Ethiopia

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Authors: Farzad Sharifi, Raziyeh Shamsi

Abstract:

In this paper, we obtain the projection of inefficient units in data envelopment analysis (DEA) in the case of stochastic inputs and outputs using the multi-objective programming (MOP) structure. In some problems, the inputs might be stochastic while the outputs are deterministic, and vice versa. In such cases, we propose molti-objective DEA-R model, because in some cases (e.g., when unnecessary and irrational weights by the BCC model reduces the efficiency score), an efficient DMU is introduced as inefficient by the BCC model, whereas the DMU is considered efficient by the DEA-R model. In some other case, only the ratio of stochastic data may be available (e.g; the ratio of stochastic inputs to stochastic outputs). Thus, we provide multi objective DEA model without explicit outputs and prove that in-put oriented MOP DEA-R model in the invariable return to scale case can be replacing by MOP- DEA model without explicit outputs in the variable return to scale and vice versa. Using the interactive methods for solving the proposed model, yields a projection corresponding to the viewpoint of the DM and the analyst, which is nearer to reality and more practical. Finally, an application is provided.

Keywords: DEA, MOLP, STOCHASTIC, DEA-R

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