Search results for: quantitative microbiological risk assessment

Authors: Henny A. Dien, Roike I. Montolalu, Feny Mentang, Jupni Keno, Reynerd S. Burdam, Siegfried Berhimpon

Abstract:

Fish Sausages became popular nowadays, because of high nutritious and low in cholesterol. However, this food is also highly perishable and often contaminated by pathogen bacteria. Edible film was made from myofibril of Black Marlin (Makaira indica) waste, with addition of liquid smoke 0.8%. The aim of this study were to determine the TPC, total coliform and Escherichia coli in fish sausages coated with smoked edible film, and stored in room temperature (26-29oC), and refrigerator (5-10oC). Results shown that TPC in fish sausages coated with smoked edible film were lower than that of without coated, both for storage in room temperature and in refrigerator. Total coliform in coated with smoked edible film and stored in room temperature ranged between 7-120 MPN/g (1-4 days), while stored in refrigerator ranged between 7-93 MPN/g (1-6 days); while fish sausages coated with edible film without liquid smoke were 7-240 MPN/g (1-4 days) in room temperature, and 7-150 MPN/g in refrigerator. Total E. coli of fish sausages coated with smoked edible film and stored in room temperature ranged between 3-4 MPN/g (1-4 days), while stored in refrigerator ranged were 3 MPN/g (1-6 days); while fish sausages coated with edible film without smoked both stored in room temperature and in refrigerator, shown total E. coli 3 MPN/g during 4 days in room temperature, and 6 days in refrigerator. Total E. coli of sausages without coated stored in room temperature ranged between 7-24 MPN/g, and that of stored in refrigerator ranged between 3-4 MPN/g.

Keywords: smoke liquid, edible film, coating, sausages

Procedia PDF Downloads 441

Authors: Juniarti, Agus Arianto Toly

Abstract:

This study aims to examine the effect of capital expenditure on the investors’ responses. The respondents were companies with the best stock performance in each sector in 2017. The observation period is 2017 to 2019. Top 10 companies in each sector with the best stock performance in companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange were selected. The main variables are a growth signal which is proxied by growth in capital spending and capital expenditure, and risk and investor response, which is proxied by CAR. Financial performance as measured by ROA is a control variable in this study. The results showed that the signal of growth as measured by capital expenditures responded positively by the market, the risk moderates this influence, companies with high risk will be responded negatively by investors and vice versa. This finding corrects previous findings that only looked at the signal aspect of growth, without linking it to risk. In addition, these findings reinforce the argument that investors buy the future of the company, not a momentary financial performance. This can be seen from the absence of ROA influence on investor response. This study found that companies need to manage risk appropriately, because the risk aspect of the company is a crucial factor for investors. High risks will eliminate the benefits of strategic decisions in this case in the form of capital expenditures.

Keywords: capital expenditure, growth signals, investor response, risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: Hyeongju Jeon, Yonghyun Kim, Yongil Kim

Abstract:

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) is an effective tool for damage assessment induced by disasters due to its all-weather and night/day acquisition capability. In this paper, the 2017 Colombia landslide was observed using full-polarimetric ALOS/PALSAR-2 data. Polarimetric decompositions, including the Freeman-Durden decomposition and the Cloude decomposition, are utilized to analyze the scattering mechanisms changes before and after-landslide. These analyses are used to detect the damaged areas induced by the landslide. Experimental results validate the efficiency of the full polarimetric SAR data since the damaged areas can be well discriminated. Thus, we can conclude the proposed method using full polarimetric data has great potential for damage assessment of landslides.

Keywords: Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), polarimetric decomposition, damage assessment, landslide

Procedia PDF Downloads 386

Authors: Roman Graf, Sergiu Gordea, Heather M. Ryan

Abstract:

This paper presents an approach for the easy creation of an institutional risk profile for endangerment analysis of file formats. The main contribution of this work is the employment of data mining techniques to support risk factors set up with just the most important values that are important for a particular organisation. Subsequently, the risk profile employs fuzzy models and associated configurations for the file format metadata aggregator to support digital preservation experts with a semi-automatic estimation of endangerment level for file formats. Our goal is to make use of a domain expert knowledge base aggregated from a digital preservation survey in order to detect preservation risks for a particular institution. Another contribution is support for visualisation and analysis of risk factors for a requried dimension. The proposed methods improve the visibility of risk factor information and the quality of a digital preservation process. The presented approach is meant to facilitate decision making for the preservation of digital content in libraries and archives using domain expert knowledge and automatically aggregated file format metadata from linked open data sources. To facilitate decision-making, the aggregated information about the risk factors is presented as a multidimensional vector. The goal is to visualise particular dimensions of this vector for analysis by an expert. The sample risk profile calculation and the visualisation of some risk factor dimensions is presented in the evaluation section.

Keywords: digital information management, file format, endangerment analysis, fuzzy models

Procedia PDF Downloads 396

Authors: Eftychia Pappa, Heleni Vastardis, Christos Rahiotis, Andriani Vazaiou

Abstract:

The aim of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of dry-mouth symptoms (xerostomia) and compare it with alterations in salivary characteristics of children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes (DM1), as measured with the use of chair-side saliva tests. This study also investigated the possible association between salivary dysfunction and incidence of caries, in relation to the level of metabolic control. A cross-sectional study was performed on young patients (6-18 years old) allocated among 3 groups: 40 patients poorly-controlled (DM1-A, HbA1c>8%), 40 well-controlled (DM1-B, HbA1c≤8%) and 40 age- and sex-matched healthy controls. The study was approved by the Research Ethics Committee of University of Athens and the parents signed written informed consent. All subjects were examined for dental caries, oral hygiene and salivary factors. Assessments of salivary function included self-reported xerostomia, quantification of resting and stimulated whole saliva flow rates, pH values, buffering capacity and saliva’s viscosity. Salivary characteristics were evaluated with the use of GC Saliva Check Buffer (3Μ ESPE). Data were analysed by chi-square and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Subjects with diabetes reported xerostomia more frequently than healthy controls (p<0.05). Unstimulated salivary flow rate and pH values remained significantly lower in DM1-A compared to DM1-B and controls. Low values of resting salivary flow rate were associated with a higher prevalence of dental caries in children and adolescents with poorly-controlled DM1 (p<0.05). The results suggested that diabetes-induced alterations in salivary characteristics are indicative of higher caries susceptibility of diabetics and chair-side saliva tests are a useful tool for the evaluation of caries risk assessment.

Keywords: caries risk assessment, saliva diagnostic tests, type 1 diabetes, xerostomia

Procedia PDF Downloads 279

Authors: Majid Lotfi Ghahroud, Seyed Jalal Tabatabaei, Ebrahim Karami, AmirArsalan Ghergherechi, Amir Ali Saeidi

Abstract:

In this study, the relationship between investment growth and stock returns of companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange and whether their relationship -behavioral or risk factors- are discussed. Generally, there are two perspectives; risk-based approach and behavioral approach. According to the risk-based approach due to increase investment, systemic risk and consequently the stock returns are reduced. But due to the second approach, an excessive optimism or pessimism leads to assuming stock price with high investment growth in the past, higher than its intrinsic value and the price of stocks with lower investment growth, less than its intrinsic value. The investigation period is eight years from 2007 to 2014. The sample consisted of all companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. The method is a portfolio test, and the analysis is based on the t-student test (t-test). The results indicate that there is a negative relationship between investment growth and stock returns of companies and this negative correlation is stronger for firms with higher cash flow. Also, the negative relationship between asset growth and stock returns is due to behavioral factors.

Keywords: behavioral theory, investment growth, risk-based theory, stock returns

Procedia PDF Downloads 153

Authors: Mustafa Durmuş, Yesim Ozogul, Esra Balıkcı, Saadet Gokdoğan, Fatih Ozogul, Ali Rıza Köşker, İlknur Yuvka

Abstract:

Food scientists and researchers have paid attention to develop new ways for improving the nutritional value of foods. The application of nanotechnology techniques to the food industry may allow the modification of food texture, taste, sensory attributes, coloring strength, processability, and stability during shelf life of products. In this research, the effects of nanoemulsions based on commercial oils for vacuum-packed sea bass fillets stored at 2±2°C were investigated in terms of the sensory, chemical (total volatile basic nitrogen (TVB-N), thiobarbituric acid (TBA), peroxide value (PV) and free fatty acids (FFA), pH, water holding capacity (WHC)) and microbiological qualities (total anaerobic bacteria and total lactic acid bacteria). Physical properties of emulsions (viscosity, the particle size of droplet, thermodynamic stability, refractive index, and surface tension) were determined. Nanoemulsion preparation method was based on high energy principle, with ultrasonic homojenizator. Sensory analyses of raw fish showed that the demerit points of the control group were found higher than those of treated groups. The sensory score (odour, taste and texture) of the cooked fillets decreased with storage time, especially in the control. Results obtained from chemical and microbiological analyses also showed that nanoemulsions significantly (p<0.05) decreased the values of biochemical parameters and growth of bacteria during storage period, thus improving quality of vacuum-packed sea bass.

Keywords: quality parameters, nanoemulsion, sea bass, shelf life, vacuum packing

Procedia PDF Downloads 454

Authors: Risna Wijayanti, Sumiati, Hanif Iswari

Abstract:

This study aims to analyze the role of financial risk attitude as a mediation between financial knowledge and business growth. The ability of human resources in managing capital (financial literacy) can be a major milestone for a company's business to grow and build its competitive advantage. This study analyzed the important role of financial risk attitude in bringing about financial knowledge on corporate growth. There have been many discussions arguing that financial knowledge is one of the main abilities of corporate managers in determining the success of managing a company. However, a contrary argument of other scholars also enlightened that financial knowledge did not have a significant influence on corporate growth. This study used literatures' review to analyze whether there is another variable that can mediate the effect of financial knowledge toward corporate growth. Research mapping was conducted to analyze the concept of risk tolerance. This concept was related to people's risk aversion effects when making a decision under risk and the role of financial knowledge on changes in financial income. Understanding and managing risks and investments are complicated, in particular for corporate managers, who are always demanded to maintain their corporate growth. Substantial financial knowledge is extremely needed to identify and take accurate information for corporate financial decision-making. By reviewing several literature, this study hypothesized that financial knowledge of corporate managers would be meaningless without manager's courage to bear risks for taking favorable business opportunities. Therefore, the level of risk aversion from corporate managers will determine corporate action, which is a reflection of corporate-level investment behavior leading to attain corporate success or failure for achieving the company's expected growth rate.

Keywords: financial knowledge, financial risk attitude, corporate growth, risk tolerance

Procedia PDF Downloads 126

Authors: Irni Rahmayani Johan, Ira Kamelia

Abstract:

One of the impacts of the rapid advancement of technology is the rise of digital finance, including peer-to-peer lending (P2P). P2P lending has been widely marketed, including an online student loan that used the P2P platform. This study aims to analyze the effect of financial literacy, perception of debt, and perception of risk toward student willingness to use the online student loan (P2P lending). Using a cross-sectional study design, in collecting the data this study employed an online survey method, with a total sample of 280 undergraduate students of IPB university, Indonesia. This study found that financial literacy, perception of debt, perception of risk, and interest in using online student loans are categorized as low level. While the level of knowledge is found to be the lowest, the first-year students showed a higher level in terms of willingness to use the online student loan. In addition, the second year students recorded a positive perception toward debt. This study showed that level of study, attendance in personal finance course, and student’ GPA is positively related to financial knowledge. While debt perception is negatively related to financial attitudes. Similarly, the negative relationship is found between risk perception and the willingness to use the online student loan. The determinant factor of the willingness to use online student loans is the level of study, debt perception, financial risk perception, and time risk perception. Students with a higher level of study are more likely to have a lower interest in using online student loans. Moreover, students who perceived debt as a financial stimulator, as well as those with higher level of financial risk perceptions and time risk perceptions, tend to show more interest to use the loan.

Keywords: financial literacy, willingness to use, online student loan, perception of risk, perception of debt

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Parviz Abadi

Abstract:

Leadership is a key driver in organizational achievement. The research presented herein intends on providing the tools for assessing Divine Leadership, which imperative in quantitative evaluations of a leadership. The effectiveness of this leadership has never been examined. There are various tests that can be applied to this leadership, such as evaluation of it against follower motivation, or the impact it has on organizational success, etc. One of the common means of evaluation of a phenomenon is to conduct a quantitative study on the hypothesis related to the subject. The dimensions enacted in this leadership consisted of Humility, Integrity, Empowerment, Altruism, and Visionary. However, these elements of the construct of leadership are latent subjects and cannot easily be assessed. Therefore, it is necessary to develop tangible items that can relate to the construct. The study presented herein was conducted to develop the scales that were tangible and could have been applied in a quantitative study to assess this leadership. The study led to generating a detailed questionnaire, which consisted of 40 questions, that could be presented to participants in the survey.

Keywords: leadership, management, scale development, organizations

Procedia PDF Downloads 49

Authors: Ainura Tursunalieva, Irene Hudson

Abstract:

Continuous improvement of both the quality and safety of health care is an important goal in Australia and internationally. The intensive care unit (ICU) receives patients with a wide variety of and severity of illnesses. Accurately identifying patients at risk of developing complications or dying is crucial to increasing healthcare efficiency. Thus, it is essential for clinicians and researchers to have a robust framework capable of evaluating the risk profile of a patient. ICU scoring systems provide such a framework. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III and the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II are ICU scoring systems frequently used for assessing the severity of acute illness. These scoring systems collect multiple risk factors for each patient including physiological measurements then render the assessment outcomes of individual risk factors into a single numerical value. A higher score is related to a more severe patient condition. Furthermore, the Mortality Probability Model II uses logistic regression based on independent risk factors to predict a patient’s probability of mortality. An important overlooked limitation of SAPS II and MPM II is that they do not, to date, include interaction terms between a patient’s vital signs. This is a prominent oversight as it is likely there is an interplay among vital signs. The co-existence of certain conditions may pose a greater health risk than when these conditions exist independently. One barrier to including such interaction terms in predictive models is the dimensionality issue as it becomes difficult to use variable selection. We propose an innovative scoring system which takes into account a dependence structure among patient’s vital signs, such as systolic and diastolic blood pressures, heart rate, pulse interval, and peripheral oxygen saturation. Copulas will capture the dependence among normally distributed and skewed variables as some of the vital sign distributions are skewed. The estimated dependence parameter will then be incorporated into the traditional scoring systems to adjust the points allocated for the individual vital sign measurements. The same dependence parameter will also be used to create an alternative copula-based model for predicting a patient’s probability of mortality. The new copula-based approach will accommodate not only a patient’s trajectories of vital signs but also the joint dependence probabilities among the vital signs. We hypothesise that this approach will produce more stable assessments and lead to more time efficient and accurate predictions. We will use two data sets: (1) 250 ICU patients admitted once to the Chui Regional Hospital (Kyrgyzstan) and (2) 37 ICU patients’ agitation-sedation profiles collected by the Hunter Medical Research Institute (Australia). Both the traditional scoring approach and our copula-based approach will be evaluated using the Brier score to indicate overall model performance, the concordance (or c) statistic to indicate the discriminative ability (or area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve), and goodness-of-fit statistics for calibration. We will also report discrimination and calibration values and establish visualization of the copulas and high dimensional regions of risk interrelating two or three vital signs in so-called higher dimensional ROCs.

Keywords: copula, intensive unit scoring system, ROC curves, vital sign dependence

Procedia PDF Downloads 145

Authors: Theingi Shwe, Riken Homma, Kazuhisa Iki, Juko Ito

Abstract:

The growing cities of the developing country are characterized by rapid growth and poor infrastructure management inviting and accelerating relative environmental problems. Even though the movements of the sustainability had already been developed around the world, it is still increasing in the developing countries to plant sustainable practices. Aligned with the sustainable development actions, many sustainable assessment tools are also developed to rate and evaluate the sustainability performances through the building to community level. Among them, CASBEE is developed by Japanese organizations and is recognized as one of the international well-known assessment tools. The main purpose of the study is to find out the potential of CASBEE tool reflecting sustainability city level performances in developing countries. The research framework was designed with three major phases: Quantitative Approach, Qualitative Approach and Evaluation Reflection. The first two approaches were based on the investigation of tool’s contents and indicators by means of three sustainable dimensions and sustainability categories. To know the reality and reflection on developing country, Pathein City from Myanmar was selected and evaluated by 2012 version of CASBEE for Cities. The evaluation practices went through assigned indicators and the evaluation outcome presents the performances of Pathein city’s environmental efficiency as a very good in current conditions. The results of this study indicate that the indicators of this tool have balance coverage among three dimensions of sustainability but it has not yet counted enough for some indicators like location, infrastructure and institution which are relative to society dimension. In the developing countries’ cities, the most critical issues on development such as affordable housing and heritage preservation which are already planted in Pathein City but the tool does not account for those issues. Moreover, in some of the indicators, the benchmark and the weighting coefficient are strongly linked to the system birth region. By means of this study, it can be stated that CASBEE for Cities would be potential for delivering sustainable city level development in developing country especially in Myanmar along with further inclusion of the indicators.

Keywords: assessment tool, CASBEE, developing country, Myanmar, Pathein city, sustainable development

Procedia PDF Downloads 254

Authors: M. Marsadek, A. Mohamed

Abstract:

Power system security analysis is the most time demanding process due to large number of possible contingencies that need to be analyzed.  In a power system, any contingency resulting in security violation such as line overload or low voltage may occur for a number of reasons at any time.  To efficiently rank a contingency, both probability and the extent of security violation must be considered so as not to underestimate the risk associated with the contingency. This paper proposed a contingency ranking method that take into account the probabilistic nature of power system and the severity of contingency by using a newly developed method based on risk factor.  The proposed technique is implemented on IEEE 24-bus system.

Keywords: line overload, low voltage, probability, risk factor, severity

Procedia PDF Downloads 543

Authors: Jianhua Zhang, Weiping Chen, Guanjie Chen, Jason Flannick, Emma Fikse, Glenda Smerin, Yanqin Yang, Yulong Li, John A. Hanover, William F. Simonds

Abstract:

Ethnic disparities in many diseases are well recognized and reflect the consequences of genetic, behavior, and environmental factors. However, direct scientific evidence connecting the ethnic genetic variations and the disease disparities has been elusive, which may have led to the ethnic inequalities in large scale genetic studies. Through the genome-wide analysis of data representing 185,934 subjects, including 14,955 from our own studies of the African America Diabetes Mellitus, we discovered sets of genetic variants either unique to or conserved in all ethnicities. We further developed a quantitative gene function-based high-risk variant index (hrVI) of 20,428 genes to establish profiles that strongly correlate with the subjects' self-identified ethnicities. With respect to the ability to detect human essential and pathogenic genes, the hrVI analysis method is both comparable with and complementary to the well-known genetic analysis methods, pLI and VIRlof. Application of the ethnicity-specific hrVI analysis to the type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) national repository, containing 20,791 cases and 24,440 controls, identified 114 candidate T2DM-associated genes, 8.8-fold greater than that of ethnicity-blind analysis. All the genes identified are defined as either pathogenic or likely-pathogenic in ClinVar database, with 33.3% diabetes-associated and 54.4% obesity-associated genes. These results demonstrate the utility of hrVI analysis and provide the first genetic evidence by clustering patterns of how genetic variations among ethnicities may impede the discovery of diabetes and foreseeably other disease-associated genes.

Keywords: diabetes-associated genes, ethnic health disparities, high-risk variant index, hrVI, T2DM

Procedia PDF Downloads 132

Authors: Chenhui Wang, Chwee Beng Lee

Abstract:

The practice of critical pedagogy is challenged by resistance from teachers. This study presents a discussion on teachers' resistance to critical pedagogy and previous practical frameworks for assessing critical thinking in formative assessment in the classroom through a critical review of the related literature. The authors found out that the main issue of teachers' resistance is not whether teachers should possess theoretical knowledge of critical thinking but how they apply that knowledge in their classroom teaching. In addition, critical thinking in formative assessment may provide teachers with a comprehensive understanding of critical pedagogical planning, implementing, and reflecting. Therefore, this paper intends to discuss a practical step-by-step framework for critical thinking formative assessment to address this resistance. Such discussion is based on a thorough examination of the related theories and frameworks. This review paper will benefit teachers in understanding and reducing their resistance to critical pedagogy as well as in implementing critical pedagogy.

Keywords: critical thinking, critical pedagogy, critical thinking formative assessment framework, teachers resistance

Procedia PDF Downloads 108

Authors: Jaroslav Fiala, Jaroslav Kaiser, Pavel Zlabek, Vaclav Mentl

Abstract:

The X-ray diffraction technique was recognized as a useful tool for the assessment of material degradation degree after a long-time service. In many industrial applications materials are subjected to degradation of mechanical properties as a result of real service conditions. The assessment of the remnant lifetime of components and structures is commonly based on correlated procedures including numerous destructive, non-destructive and mathematical techniques that should guarantee reasonable precise assessment of the current damage extent of materials in question and the remnant lifetime assessment. This paper summarizes results of an experimental programme concentrated on mechanical properties degradation of welded components. Steel an Al-alloy test specimens of base metal, containing welds and simple weldments were fatigue loaded at room temperature to obtain Woehler S-N curve. X-ray diffraction technique was applied to assess the degradation degree of material as a result of cyclic loading.

Keywords: fatigue loading, material degradation, steels, AL-alloys, X-ray diffraction

Procedia PDF Downloads 434

Authors: Stefano Scippo, Damiana Luzzi, Stefano Cuomo, Maria Ranieri

Abstract:

Background: In response to the rise in natural disasters linked to climate change, numerous studies on Disaster Risk Reduction Education (DRRE) have emerged since the '90s, mainly using a didactic transmission-based approach. Effective DRRE should align with an interactive, experiential, and participatory educational model, which can be costly and risky. A potential solution is using simulations facilitated by eXtended Reality (XR). Research Question: This study aims to conduct a scoping review to explore educational methodologies that use XR to enhance knowledge among teachers, students, and citizens about environmental risks, natural disasters (including climate-related ones), and their management. Method: A search string of 66 keywords was formulated, spanning three domains: 1) education and target audience, 2) environment and natural hazards, and 3) technologies. On June 21st, 2023, the search string was used across five databases: EBSCOhost, IEEE Xplore, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science. After deduplication and removing papers without abstracts, 2,152 abstracts (published between 2013 and 2023) were analyzed and 2,062 papers were excluded, followed by the exclusion of 56 papers after full-text scrutiny. Excluded studies focused on unrelated technologies, non-environmental risks, and lacked educational outcomes or accessible texts. Main Results: The 34 reviewed papers were analyzed for context, risk type, research methodology, learning objectives, XR technology use, outcomes, and educational affordances of XR. Notably, since 2016, there has been a rise in scientific publications, focusing mainly on seismic events (12 studies) and floods (9), with a significant contribution from Asia (18 publications), particularly Japan (7 studies). Methodologically, the studies were categorized into empirical (26) and non-empirical (8). Empirical studies involved user or expert validation of XR tools, while non-empirical studies included systematic reviews and theoretical proposals without experimental validation. Empirical studies were further classified into quantitative, qualitative, or mixed-method approaches. Six qualitative studies involved small groups of users or experts, while 20 quantitative or mixed-method studies used seven different research designs, with most (17) employing a quasi-experimental, one-group post-test design, focusing on XR technology usability over educational effectiveness. Non-experimental studies had methodological limitations, making their results hypothetical and in need of further empirical validation. Educationally, the learning objectives centered on knowledge and skills for surviving natural disaster emergencies. All studies recommended XR technologies for simulations or serious games but did not develop comprehensive educational frameworks around these tools. XR-based tools showed potential superiority over traditional methods in teaching risk and emergency management skills. However, conclusions were more valid in studies with experimental designs; otherwise, they remained hypothetical without empirical evidence. The educational affordances of XR, mainly user engagement, were confirmed by the studies. Authors’ Conclusions: The analyzed literature lacks specific educational frameworks for XR in DRRE, focusing mainly on survival knowledge and skills. There is a need to expand educational approaches to include uncertainty education, developing competencies that encompass knowledge, skills, and attitudes like risk perception.

Keywords: disaster risk reduction education, educational technologies, scoping review, XR technologies

Procedia PDF Downloads 19

Authors: Kasirga Yildirak, Ismail Gur

Abstract:

We propose a model to measure hail risk of an Agricultural Insurance portfolio. Hail is one of the major catastrophic event that causes big amount of loss to an insurer. Moreover, it is very hard to predict due to its strange atmospheric characteristics. We make use of parcel based claims data on apricot damage collected by the Turkish Agricultural Insurance Pool (TARSIM). As our ultimate aim is to compute the loadings assigned to specific parcels, we build a portfolio risk model that makes use of PD and the severity of the exposures. PD is computed by Spherical-Linear and Circular –Linear regression models as the data carries coordinate information and seasonality. Severity is mapped into integer brackets so that Probability Generation Function could be employed. Individual regressions are run on each clusters estimated on different criteria. Loss distribution is constructed by Panjer Recursion technique. We also show that one risk-one crop model can easily be extended to the multi risk–multi crop model by assuming conditional independency.

Keywords: hail insurance, spherical regression, circular regression, spherical clustering

Procedia PDF Downloads 247

Authors: Joshua Abraham, Craig Wales

Abstract:

Abstract—SIGN Guideline 122 recommends that all patients who are admitted to hospital are assessed for venous thromboembolism risk within 24 hours of admission. NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde provide guidance on this in the form of a proforma. Patients are then subsequently prescribed either thrombo-embolic-deterrent stockings (TEDS)/low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) for the prevention of VTE based on their score. A retrospective casenote audit of a random sample of fifty oncology and trauma inpatients at the QEUH in December 2019 was performed. 90% of patients had a risk assessment conducted as evidenced by a completed proforma. In 78% of these patients, the proforma fully completed. Overall 94% of patients had some for of thromboprophylaxis prescribed in the form of TEDS or LMWH. A lack of 100% compliance against the given standards highlighted potential implications for patient safety, but also medico-legal ramifications for staff. Clinical judgement can only be relied upon if there is written documentation as evidence. Further staff education and the suggestion of a written prompt to the clerk-in documentation will hopefully improve compliance, whilst a repeat audit should demonstrate any improvement.

Keywords: Maxillofacial , Thromboembolism, Thromboprophylaxis , Prescription

Procedia PDF Downloads 152

Authors: Mustafa Dogru, Ruveyda Komurlu

Abstract:

Companies and professionals in the construction sector face various risks in every project depending on the characteristics, size, complexity, the location of the projects and the techniques used. Some risks’ effects may increase as the project progresses whereas new risks may emerge. Because of the ever-changing nature of the risks, risk management is a cyclical process that needs to be repeated throughout the project. Since the risks threaten the success of the project, risk management is an important part of the entire project management process. The aims of this study are to emphasize the importance of risk management in construction projects, summarize the risk identification process, and introduce a number of methods for preventing risks such as alternative design, checklists, prototyping and test-analysis-correction technique etc. Following the literature review conducted to list the techniques for preventing risks, case studies has been performed to compare and evaluate the success of the techniques in a number of completed projects with the same typology, performed domestic and international. Findings of the study suggest that controlling and minimizing the level of the risks in construction projects, taking optimal precautions for different risks, and mitigating or eliminating the effects of risks are important in order to prevent additional costs for the project. Additionally, focusing on the risks that have highest impact is the most rational way to minimize the effects of the risks on projects.

Keywords: construction projects, construction management, project management, risk management

Procedia PDF Downloads 306

Authors: Lesa A. Thompson, Yoshinori Ikenaka, Victor Wepener, Mayumi Ishizuka

Abstract:

One method for controlling malaria in endemic regions is the killing of vector mosquitoes using pesticides such as DDT in indoor residual spraying (IRS). This study was carried out to investigate the presence of and human health risk due to DDT and its metabolites (collectively, DDTs) contaminating human food sources in areas where DDT is used for IRS. Free-range chicken products (meat and eggs) were collected from homesteads in KwaZulu-Natal Province in the northeast of South Africa, and fish meat samples from Maputo Bay in neighbouring Mozambique. Samples were analysed for DDTs (o,p’-DDT, p,p’-DDT, o,p’-DDD, p,p’-DDD, o,p’-DDE and p,p’-DDE) using a gas chromatograph with electron capture detector (GC-ECD). DDTs were detected in all food types, with the predominant congener being p,p’-DDE. The presence of p,p’-DDT confirmed recent release of DDT into the environment. By using concentration levels detected in foods and national consumption levels, the risk to human health through consumption of such food products was calculated. In order of risk level, these were: chicken eggs > chicken meat > fish meat. Human risk (carcinogenic) values greater than one suggest there is an increased health risk through consumption of these foods.

Keywords: DDT, food contamination, human health risk, Mozambique, South Africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 334

Authors: P. Serpytis, K. Azukaitis, U. Gargalskaite, R. Navickas, J. Badariene, V. Dzenkeviciute

Abstract:

Purpose: Total longitudinal displacement (tLoD) of the common carotid artery (CCA) wall is a novel ultrasound marker of vascular function that can be evaluated using modified speckle tracking techniques. Decreased CCA tLoD has already been shown to be associated with diabetes and was shown to predict one year cardiovascular outcome in patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) . The aim of our study was to evaluate if CCA tLoD differ between patients with moderate or high cardiovascular (CV) risk and patients after recent acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Methods: 49 patients (54±6 years) with moderate or high CV risk and 42 patients (58±7 years) after recent AMI were included. All patients were non-diabetic. CCA tLoD was evaluated using GE EchoPAC speckle tracking software and expressed as mean of both sides. Data on systolic blood pressure, total and high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels, high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) level, smoking status and family history of early CV events was evaluated and assessed for association with CCA tLoD. Results: tLoD of CCA did not differ between patients with moderate or high CV risk and patients with very high CV risk after MI (0.265±0.128 mm vs. 0.237±0.103 mm, p>0.05). Lower tLoD was associated with lower HDL cholesterol levels (r=0.211, p=0.04) and male sex (0.228±0.1 vs. 0.297±0.134, p=0.01). Conclusions: tLoD of CCA did not differ between patients with moderate or high CV risk and patients with very high CV risk after AMI. However, lower CCA tLoD was significantly associated with low HDL cholesterol levels and male sex.

Keywords: total longitudinal displacement, carotid artery, cardiovascular risk, acute myocardial infarction

Procedia PDF Downloads 382

Authors: Fahimeh Khatami, Elham Sanagar Darbani, Behnosh Khir Khah, R.Khatami

Abstract:

Rural and ruralism is one of the residential forms that form in special natural areas, and the Interaction between their internal and external forces cause developments and changes that are different in time and space. Over time, historical developments, social and economic changes in the political system cause developments and rapid growth of the rural to urban settlements. However, criteria for recognizing rural settlements to the city are different in every land. One of the problems in modern plan is inattention to indicators and criteria of changing these settlements to the city. The method of this research is a type of applied and compilation research and library and field methods are used in it. And also qualitative and quantitative indicators have been provided while collecting documents and studies from rural districts like Dehnow, Virani, Abardeh, Zoshk, Nowchah, Jaqarq in tourism area of Mashhad. In this research, the used tool is questionnaire and for analyzing quantitative variables by Morris and Mac Granahan examination, the importance of each factor and the development settlements are evaluated, and the rural that can convert to the city was defined. In result, according to Askalvgram curve obtained from analysis, it was found that among the mentioned villages, Virani and Nowchah rural districts have this ability to convert to the city; Zoshk rural district will be converting to the city in future and Dehnow, Abardeh and Jaqarq rural districts won’t be converting.

Keywords: rural settlements, city, indicators, Torqabe and Shandiz rural districts

Procedia PDF Downloads 265

Authors: Anjushi Verma, Tirthankar Gayen

Abstract:

Although, reliability is an important attribute of quality, especially for mission critical systems, yet, there does not exist any versatile model even today for the reliability assessment of component-based software. The existing Black Box models are found to make various assumptions which may not always be realistic and may be quite contrary to the actual behaviour of software. They focus on observing the manner in which the system behaves without considering the structure of the system, the components composing the system, their interconnections, dependencies, usage frequencies, etc.As a result, the entropy (uncertainty) in assessment using these models is much high.Though, there are some models based on operation profile yet sometimes it becomes extremely difficult to obtain the exact operation profile concerned with a given operation. This paper discusses the drawbacks, deficiencies and limitations of Black Box approaches from the perspective of various authors and finally proposes a conceptual model for the reliability assessment of software.

Keywords: black box, faults, failure, software reliability

Procedia PDF Downloads 439

Authors: Olga Biedova, Victoria Steblovskaya, Kai Wallbaum

Abstract:

In the current capital market environment, investors constantly face the challenge of finding a successful and stable investment mechanism. Highly volatile equity markets and extremely low bond returns bring about the demand for sophisticated yet reliable risk management strategies. Investors are looking for risk management solutions to efficiently protect their investments. This study compares a classic Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (CPPI) strategy to a Volatility Target portfolio insurance (VTPI). VTPI is an extension of the well-known Option Based Portfolio Insurance (OBPI) to the case where an embedded option is linked not to a pure risky asset such as e.g., S&P 500, but to a Volatility Target (VolTarget) portfolio. VolTarget strategy is a recently emerged rule-based dynamic asset allocation mechanism where the portfolio’s volatility is kept under control. As a result, a typical VTPI strategy allows higher participation rates in the market due to reduced embedded option prices. In addition, controlled volatility levels eliminate the volatility spread in option pricing, one of the frequently cited reasons for OBPI strategy fall behind CPPI. The strategies are compared within the framework of the stochastic dominance theory based on numerical simulations, rather than on the restrictive assumption of the Black-Scholes type dynamics of the underlying asset. An extended comparative quantitative analysis of performances of the above investment strategies in various market scenarios and within a range of input parameter values is presented.

Keywords: CPPI, portfolio insurance, stochastic dominance, volatility target

Procedia PDF Downloads 164

Authors: Nikita Valluri, Vatcharaporn Esichaikul

Abstract:

With the popularity of data-driven decision making on the rise, this study focuses on providing an alternative outlook towards the process of decision-making. Combining quantitative and qualitative methods rooted in the social sciences, an integrated framework is presented with a focus on delivering a much more robust and efficient approach towards the concept of data-driven decision-making with respect to not only Big data but also 'Thick data', a new form of qualitative data. In support of this, an example from the retail sector has been illustrated where the framework is put into action to yield insights and leverage business intelligence. An interpretive approach to analyze findings from both kinds of quantitative and qualitative data has been used to glean insights. Using traditional Point-of-sale data as well as an understanding of customer psychographics and preferences, techniques of data mining along with qualitative methods (such as grounded theory, ethnomethodology, etc.) are applied. This study’s final goal is to establish the framework as a basis for providing a holistic solution encompassing both the Big and Thick aspects of any business need. The proposed framework is a modified enhancement in lieu of traditional data-driven decision-making approach, which is mainly dependent on quantitative data for decision-making.

Keywords: big data, customer behavior, customer experience, data mining, qualitative methods, quantitative methods, thick data

Procedia PDF Downloads 154

Authors: Nabil Mekaoui, Nacer Jabour, Abdelhamid Allaoui, Abderahim Oulidi

Abstract:

The reliability of several insurance indexes of the seismic risk is evaluated and compared for an efficient seismic risk coverage of buildings in Morocco, thus, reducing the basic risk. A large database of earthquake ground motions is established from recent seismic events in Morocco and synthetic ground motions compatible with the design spectrum in order to conduct nonlinear time history analyses on three building models representative of the building stock in Morocco. The uninhabitability index is evaluated based on the simulated damage index, then correlated with preselected insurance indexes. Interestingly, the commonly used peak ground acceleration index showed poor correlation when compared with other indexes, such as spectral accelerations at low periods. Recommendations on the choice of suitable insurance indexes are formulated for efficient seismic risk coverage in Morocco.

Keywords: catastrophe modeling, damage, earthquake, reinsurance, seismic hazard, trigger index, vulnerability

Procedia PDF Downloads 63

Authors: Kgantsi B. T., Ochwelwang A. R., Mathuthu M., Jegede O. A.

Abstract:

Anthropogenic activities near water bodies contribute to poor water quality, which degrades the condition of the biota and elevates the risk to human health. The Vaal River is essential in supplying Gauteng and neighboring regions of South Africa with portable water for a variety of consumers and industries. Consequently, it is necessary to monitor and assess the radioactive risk in relation to the river's water quality. This study used an inductive coupled plasma mass spectrometer (ICPMS) to analyze the radionuclide activity concentration in the Vaal River, South Africa. Along with thorium and potassium, the total uranium concentration was calculated using the isotopic content of uranium. The elemental concentration of ²³⁸U, ²³⁵U, ²³⁴U, ²³²Th, and 40K were translated into activity concentrations. To assess the water safety for all users and consumers, all values were compared to world average activity concentrations 35, 30, and 400 Bqkg⁻¹ for ²³⁸U, ²³⁴Th, and ⁴⁰K, respectively, according to the UNSCEAR report. The results will serve as a database for further monitoring and evaluation of the radionuclide from the river, taking cognisance of potential health hazards.

Keywords: Val Rivers, ICPMS, uranium, risks

Procedia PDF Downloads 159

Authors: Zeleke Ayalew Alemu

Abstract:

This study aims to investigate tax administration constraints in Addis Ababa with a focus on small and medium-sized enterprises by identifying issues and constraints in tax administration and assessment. The study identifies problems associated with taxpayers and tax-collecting authorities in the city. The research used qualitative and quantitative research designs and employed questionnaires, focus group discussion and key informant interviews for primary data collection and also used secondary data from different sources. The study identified many constraints that taxpayers are facing. Among others, tax administration offices’ inefficiency, reluctance to respond to taxpayers’ questions, limited tax assessment and administration knowledge and skills, and corruption and unethical practices are the major ones. Besides, the tax laws and regulations are complex and not enforced equally and fully on all taxpayers, causing a prevalence of business entities not paying taxes. This apparently results in an uneven playing field. Consequently, the tax system at present is neither fair nor transparent and increases compliance costs. In case of dispute, the appeal process is excessively long and the tax authority’s decision is irreversible. The Value Added Tax (VAT) administration and compliance system is not well designed, and VAT has created economic distortion among VAT-registered and non-registered taxpayers. Cash registration machine administration and the reporting system are big headaches for taxpayers. With regard to taxpayers, there is a lack of awareness of tax laws and documentation. Based on the above and other findings, the study forwarded recommendations, such as, ensuring fairness and transparency in tax collection and administration, enhancing the efficiency of tax authorities by use of modern technologies and upgrading human resources, conducting extensive awareness creation programs, and enforcing tax laws in a fair and equitable manner. The objective of this study is to assess problems, weaknesses and limitations of small and medium-sized enterprise taxpayers, tax authority administrations, and laws as sources of inefficiency and dissatisfaction to forward recommendations that bring about efficient, fair and transparent tax administration. The entire study has been conducted in a participatory and process-oriented manner by involving all partners and stakeholders at all levels. Accordingly, the researcher used participatory assessment methods in generating both secondary and primary data as well as both qualitative and quantitative data on the field. The research team held FGDs with 21 people from Addis Ababa City Administration tax offices and selected medium and small taxpayers. The study team also interviewed 10 KIIs selected from the various segments of stakeholders. The lead, along with research assistants, handled the KIIs using a predesigned semi-structured questionnaire.

Keywords: taxation, tax system, tax administration, small and medium enterprises

Procedia PDF Downloads 65

Authors: Luiz Drude de Lacerda, Kevin Luiz Cordeiro Ferrer do Carmo, Victor Lacerda Moura, Rayone Wesley Santos de Oliveira, Moisés Fernandes Bezerra

Abstract:

Fish is a food source well recognized for its health benefits. However, the consumption of fish, especially carnivorous species, is the main path of human exposure to Hg, a widely distributed pollutant on the planet and that accumulates along food chains. Studies on the impacts on public health by fish intake show existing toxic risks even when at low concentrations. This study quantifies, for the first time, the concentrations of Hg in muscle tissue of the nine most commercialized fish species in the fish market of São Luís (MA) in north Brazil and estimates the consequent human exposure through consumption. Concentrations varied according to trophic level, with the highest found in the larger carnivorous species; the Yellow hake (Cynoscion acoupa) (296.4 ± 241.2 ng/g w.w) and the Atlantic croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) (262.8 ± 89.1 ng/g w.w.), whereas the lowest concentrations were recorded in iliophagous Mullets (Mugil curema) (20.5 ± 9.6 ng/g w.w.). Significant correlations were observed between Hg concentrations and individual length in only two species: the Flaming catfish (Bagre marinus) and the Atlantic bumper (Chloroscombrus crysurus). Given the relatively uniform size of individuals of the other species and/or the small number of samples, this relationship was not found for the other species. The estimated risk coefficients, despite the relatively low concentrations of Hg, suggest that yellow hake and Whitemouth croaker (Micropogonias furnieri), fish most consumed by the local population, present some risk to human health (> 1) HQ and THQ, depending on the frequency of their consumption.

Keywords: contamination, fish, human exposure, risk assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 106