Search results for: analysis improvement

Authors: Dila Ram Bhandari

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Throughout the 20th century, new governments were created where identities such as ethnic, religious, linguistic, caste, communal, tribal, and others played a part in the development of constitutions and the legal system of victim and criminal justice. Acute issues with extremism, poverty, environmental degradation, cybercrimes, human rights violations, crime against, and victimization of both individuals and groups have recently plagued South Asian nations. Everyday massive number of crimes are steadfast, these frequent crimes have made the lives of common citizens restless. Crimes are one of the major threats to society and also for civilization. Crime is a bone of contention that can create a societal disturbance. The old-style crime solving practices are unable to live up to the requirement of existing crime situations. Crime analysis is one of the most important activities of the majority of intelligent and law enforcement organizations all over the world. The South Asia region lacks such a regional coordination mechanism, unlike central Asia of Asia Pacific regions, to facilitate criminal intelligence sharing and operational coordination related to organized crime, including illicit drug trafficking and money laundering. There have been numerous conversations in recent years about using data mining technology to combat crime and terrorism. The Data Detective program from Sentient as a software company, uses data mining techniques to support the police (Sentient, 2017). The goals of this internship are to test out several predictive model solutions and choose the most effective and promising one. First, extensive literature reviews on data mining, crime analysis, and crime data mining were conducted. Sentient offered a 7-year archive of crime statistics that were daily aggregated to produce a univariate dataset. Moreover, a daily incidence type aggregation was performed to produce a multivariate dataset. Each solution's forecast period lasted seven days. Statistical models and neural network models were the two main groups into which the experiments were split. For the crime data, neural networks fared better than statistical models. This study gives a general review of the applied statistics and neural network models. A detailed image of each model's performance on the available data and generalizability is provided by a comparative analysis of all the models on a comparable dataset. Obviously, the studies demonstrated that, in comparison to other models, Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) produced greater prediction. The crime records of 2005-2019 which was collected from Nepal Police headquarter and analysed by R programming. In conclusion, gated recurrent unit implementation could give benefit to police in predicting crime. Hence, time series analysis using GRU could be a prospective additional feature in Data Detective.

Keywords: time series analysis, forecasting, ARIMA, machine learning

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Authors: Rubina Jahan, Mohammad Zayeed Bin Alam, Sazzad Chowdhury, Sadia Chowdhury

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Access to mental health services in Bangladesh is a tale of urban privilege and rural struggle. Mental health services in the country are primarily centered in urban medical hospitals, with only 260 psychiatrists for a population of more than 162 million, while rural populations face far more severe and daunting challenges. In alignment with the World Health Organization's perspective on mental health as a basic human right and a crucial component for personal, community, and socioeconomic development; SAJIDA Foundation a value driven non-government organization in Bangladesh has introduced a Community Based Mental Health (CMHI) program to fill critical gaps in mental health care, providing accessible and affordable community-based services to protect and promote mental health, offering support for those grappling with mental health conditions. The CMHI programme is being implemented in 3 districts in Bangladesh, 2 of them are remote and most climate vulnerable areas targeting total 6,797 individual. The intervention plan involves a screening of all participants using a 10-point vulnerability assessment tool to identify vulnerable individuals. The assumption underlying this is that individuals assessed as vulnerable is primarily due to biological, psychological, social and economic factors and they are at an increased risk of developing common mental health issues. Those identified as vulnerable with high risk and emergency conditions will receive Mental Health First Aid (MHFA) and undergo further screening with GHQ-12 to be identified as cases and non-cases. The identified cases are then referred to community lay counsellors with basic training and knowledge in providing 4-6 sessions on problem solving or behavior activation. In situations where no improvement occurs post lay counselling or for individuals with severe mental health conditions, a referral process will be initiated, directing individuals to ensure appropriate mental health care. In our presentation, it will present the findings from 6-month pilot implementation focusing on the community-based screening versus outcome of the lay counseling session and barriers and facilitators of implementing community based mental health care in a resource constraint country like Bangladesh.

Keywords: community-based mental health, lay counseling, rural bangladesh, treatment gap

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Authors: Shruti Jain

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During its independence struggle in the early 20th century, India witnessed trends of politicisation of various spiritual paths, one of them being that of Shaktism. Interestingly, Nietzsche’s teachings were being interpreted as being essentially the worship of Shakti. The present paper aims at investigating this claim and hence undertakes an intercultural archaeological excavation in the realm of the Goddess archetypes that Nietzsche’s work invokes. Ariadne is placed next to Radha, Baubo to Lajja Gauri, Medusa to Chhinnamasta, Hecate to Kali and Dhumavati and Athena to Sarawati. Indeed, the Eternal Feminine plays a vital role in Nietzsche’s writings. One might recall that Nietzsche even declared himself to be the first Psychologist of the Eternal Feminine. The present paper aims to illustrate how, the matter of the Eternal Feminine, like all other matters, is subjected to Nietzsche’s basic creative principle of transvaluation of values and new meaning making. In order to achieve this, Nietzsche applies what Heidegger calls a 'cross-wise striking-through' technique in his analysis of what can be termed as his engagement with Shaktism. Hence, not only is the mystical ascent and descent of the creative energy (Kundalini Shakti) dealt with under erasure in Thus Spake Zarathustra, but coincidentally also the Three Metamorphoses emerge as an instance of such an erasure, making the Devi invisible and yet not so invisible for an Indian reader.

Keywords: eternal feminine, Nietzsche and India, Shaktism, transvaluation of values

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Authors: Qi Lu, Jian Deng, Daishun Huang, Chao Guo

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The lead cooled fast reactor is considered as one of the most potential Generation IV nuclear systems due to the low working pressure, the appreciable neutron economy, and the considerable passive characteristics. Meanwhile, the lead bismuth eutectic (LBE) has the related advantages of lead with the weaker corrosiveness, which has been paid much attention by recent decades. Moreover, the sub-channel code is a necessary analysis tool for the reactor thermal-hydraulic design and safety analysis, which has been developed combined with the accumulation of LBE experimental data and the understanding of physical phenomena. In this study, a sub-channel code available for LBE was developed, and the corresponding geometric characterization method of typical sub-channels was described in detail, especially for for the fuel assembly with wire spacer. As for this sub-channel code, the transversal thermal conduction through gap was taken into account. In addition, the physical properties, the heat transfer model, the flow resistance model and the turbulent mixing model were analyzed. Finally, the thermal-hydraulic experiments of LBE conducted on THEADES (THErmal-hydraulics and Ads DESign) were selected as the evaluation data of this sub-channel code, including 19 rods with wire spacer, and the calculated results were in good agreement with the experimental results.

Keywords: lead bismuth eutectic, sub-channel code, wire spacer, transversal thermal conduction

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Authors: Julius Oluwayomi Oluwadamilare, Michael Olutayo Olatunji

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In the African traditional societies, women have always played the role of a teacher, albeit informally. This is evident in the upbringing of their babies. As mothers, they also serve as the first teachers to teach their wards lessons through day-to-day activities. Furthermore, women always play the role of a musician during naming ceremonies, in the singing of lullabies, during initiation rites of adolescent boys and girls into adulthood, and in preparing their children especially daughters (and sons) for marriage. They also perform this role during religious and cultural activities, chieftaincy title/coronation ceremonies, singing of dirges during funeral ceremonies, and so forth. This traditional role of the African/Nigerian women puts them at a vantage point to contribute maximally to the teaching and learning of music at every level of education. The need for more women in the field of music education in Nigeria cannot be overemphasized. Today, gender equality is a major discourse in most countries of the world, Nigeria inclusive. Statistical data in the field of education and music education reveal the high ratio of male teachers/lecturers over their female counterparts in Nigerian tertiary institutions. The percentage is put at 80% Male and a distant 20% Female! This paper, therefore, examines feminine gender in Nigerian music education by tracing the involvement of women in musical practice from the pre-colonial to the post-colonial periods. The study employed both primary and secondary sources of data collection. The primary source included interviews conducted with 19 music lecturers from 8 purposively selected tertiary institutions from 4 geo-political zones of Nigeria. In addition, observation method was employed in the selected institutions. The results show, inter alia, that though there is a remarkable improvement in the rate of admission of female students into the music programme of Nigerian tertiary institutions, there is still an imbalance in the job placement in these institutions especially in the Colleges of Education which is the main focus of this research. Religious and socio-cultural factors are highly traceable to this development. This paper recommends the need for more female music teachers to be employed in the Nigerian tertiary institutions in line with the provisions stated in the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

Keywords: gender, education, music, women

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Authors: Chanchal Biswas, Anrin Bhattacharyya, Gopes Chandra Das, Mahua Ghosh Chaudhuri, Rajib Dey

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Boiler coals with low fixed carbon and higher ash content have always challenged the metallurgists to develop a suitable method for their utilization. In the present study, an attempt is made to establish an energy effective method for the reduction of iron ore fines in the form of nuggets by using ‘Syngas’. By devolatisation (expulsion of volatile matter by applying heat) of boiler coal, gaseous product (enriched with reducing agents like CO, CO2, H2, and CH4 gases) is generated. Iron ore nuggets are reduced by this syngas. For that reason, there is no direct contact between iron ore nuggets and coal ash. It helps to control the minimization of the sulphur intake of the reduced nuggets. A laboratory scale devolatisation furnace designed with reduction facility is evaluated after in-depth studies and exhaustive experimentations including thermo-gravimetric (TG-DTA) analysis to find out the volatile fraction present in boiler grade coal, gas chromatography (GC) to find out syngas composition in different temperature and furnace temperature gradient measurements to minimize the furnace cost by applying one heating coil. The nuggets are reduced in the devolatisation furnace at three different temperatures and three different times. The pre-reduced nuggets are subjected to analytical weight loss calculations to evaluate the extent of reduction. The phase and surface morphology analysis of pre-reduced samples are characterized using X-ray diffractometry (XRD), energy dispersive x-ray spectrometry (EDX), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), carbon sulphur analyzer and chemical analysis method. Degree of metallization of the reduced nuggets is 78.9% by using boiler grade coal. The pre-reduced nuggets with lesser sulphur content could be used in the blast furnace as raw materials or coolant which would reduce the high quality of coke rate of the furnace due to its pre-reduced character. These can be used in Basic Oxygen Furnace (BOF) as coolant also.

Keywords: alternative ironmaking, coal gasification, extent of reduction, nugget making, syngas based DRI, solid state reduction

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Authors: Reza Salehi, Peter L. Dold, Yves Comeau

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The aim of the present study was to investigate the effect of a total of 6 operating parameters including pH (X1), temperature (X2), stirring speed (X3), chemical oxygen demand (COD) (X4), volatile suspended solids (VSS) (X5) and time (X6) on anaerobic orthophosphate release from enhanced biological phosphorus removal (EBPR) sludge. An 8-run Plackett Burman design was applied and the statistical analysis of the experimental data was performed using Minitab16.2.4 software package. The Analysis of variance (ANOVA) results revealed that temperature, COD, VSS and time had a significant effect with p-values of less than 0.05 whereas pH and stirring speed were identified as non-significant parameters, but influenced orthophosphate release from the EBPR sludge. The mathematic expression obtained by the first-order multiple linear regression model between orthophosphate release from the EBPR sludge (Y) and the operating parameters (X1-X6) was Y=18.59+1.16X1-3.11X2-0.81X3+3.79X4+9.89X5+4.01X6. The model p-value and coefficient of determination (R2) value were 0.026 and of 99.87%, respectively, which indicates the model is significant and the predicted values of orthophosphate release from the EBPR sludge have been excellently correlated with the observed values.

Keywords: anaerobic, operating parameters, orthophosphate release, Plackett-Burman design

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Authors: Antoifi Abdoulhalik, Ashraf Ahmed

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The ever growing threat of saltwater intrusion has prompted the need to further advance the understanding of underlying processes related to SWI for effective water resource management. While research efforts have mainly been focused on steady state analysis, studies on the transience of saltwater intrusion mechanism remain very scarce and studies considering transient SWI in heterogeneous medium are, as per our knowledge, simply inexistent. This study provides for the first time a quantitative analysis of the effect of both inland and coastal water level changes on the transition zone under transient conditions in layered coastal aquifer. In all, two sets of four experiments were completed, including a homogeneous case, and four layered cases: case LH and case HL presented were two bi-layered scenarios where a low K layer was set at the top and the bottom, respectively; case HLH and case LHL presented two stratified aquifers with High K–Low K–High K and Low K–High K– Low K pattern, respectively. Experimental automated image analysis technique was used here to quantify the main SWI parameters under high spatial and temporal resolution. The findings of this study provide an invaluable insight on the underlying processes responsible of transition zone dynamics in coastal aquifers. The results show that in all the investigated cases, the width of the transition zone remains almost unchanged throughout the saltwater intrusion process regardless of where the boundary change occurs. However, the results demonstrate that the width of the transition zone considerably increases during the retreat, with largest amplitude observed in cases LH and LHL, where a low K was set at the top of the system. In all the scenarios, the amplitude of widening was slightly smaller when the retreat was prompted by instantaneous drop of the saltwater level than when caused by inland freshwater rise, despite equivalent absolute head change magnitude. The magnitude of head change significantly caused larger widening during the saltwater wedge retreat, while having no impact during the intrusion phase.

Keywords: freshwater-saltwater transition-zone dynamics, heterogeneous coastal aquifers, laboratory experiments, transience seawater intrusion

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Authors: Saheb Yousefi, Kim T. Zebehazy, Parviz Sharifi Daramadi, Tahereh Najafi Fard, Kevin Murfitt

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Context: Children with visual impairments often face challenges in their cognitive, motor, and social development. Sensory-motor and spatial perception therapies can be beneficial for these children, but many existing programs only focus on a limited set of therapies. This study aims to investigate the effectiveness of a rehabilitation program for sensory- motor and spatial perception in reducing the fear of mobility in visually impaired children. Research Aim: The aim of this study is to determine if a rehabilitation program based on parent-child interaction can reduce the fear of mobility in visually impaired children. Methodology: This study uses a semi-experimental approach with an uneven control group design. Visually impaired children aged 10 to 14 and their parents from the Board of the Blind and Visually Impaired in Tehran Province were included in the study. The sample was divided into experimental and control groups, with a total of 30 participants. The experimental group participated in a rehabilitation program for sensory-motor and spatial perception based on parent-child interaction, while the control group did not receive this intervention. Data was collected using questionnaires on transportation issues and analyzed using multivariate and univariate mixed analysis of variance tests. Findings: The analysis of the data showed that the fear of movement was significantly improved in the experimental group compared to the control group after the intervention. Theoretical Importance: This study highlights the effectiveness of a rehabilitation program for sensory- motor and spatial perception based on parent-child interaction in reducing the fear of mobility in visually impaired children. It contributes to the existing knowledge by demonstrating the positive impact of this type of intervention on the cognitive, motor, and social development of these children. Data Collection and Analysis Procedures: Data was collected through the use of questionnaires administered to the children before and after the intervention. The data was analyzed using multivariate and univariate mixed analysis of variance tests to examine the effects of the rehabilitation program. Questions Addressed: This study addresses the question of whether a rehabilitation program based on parent-child interaction can reduce the fear of mobility in visually impaired children. Conclusion: The findings of this study support the effectiveness of the sensory-motor and spatial perception rehabilitation program based on parent-child interaction in reducing the fear of movement in visually impaired children. This intervention can be considered as a suitable method to enhance the fear of mobility in these children.

Keywords: vision impairment, sensory-motor rehabilitation, space perception, parent-child interaction, fear of movement.

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Authors: Brandon Knopp, Matthew Harris

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Purpose: Tip-apex distance (TAD) has long been discussed as a metric for determining risk of failure in the fixation of peritrochanteric fractures. TAD measurements over 25 millimeters (mm) have been associated with higher rates of screw cut out and other complications in the first several months after surgery. However, there is limited evidence for the efficacy of this measurement in predicting the long-term risk of negative outcomes following hip fixation surgery. The purpose of our study was to investigate risk factors including TAD for hospital readmission, loss of pre-injury ambulation and development of complications within 1 year after hip fixation surgery. Methods: A retrospective review of proximal hip fractures treated with single screw intramedullary devices between 2016 and 2020 was performed at a 327-bed regional medical center. Patients included had a postoperative follow-up of at least 12 months or surgery-related complications developing within that time. Results: 44 of the 67 patients in this study met the inclusion criteria with adequate follow-up post-surgery. There was a total of 10 males (22.7%) and 34 females (77.3%) meeting inclusion criteria with a mean age of 82.1 (± 12.3) at the time of surgery. The average TAD in our study population was 19.57mm and the average 1-year readmission rate was 15.9%. 3 out of 6 patients (50%) with a TAD > 25mm were readmitted within one year due to surgery-related complications. In contrast, 3 out of 38 patients (7.9%) with a TAD < 25mm were readmitted within one year due to surgery-related complications (p=0.0254). Individual TAD measurements, averaging 22.05mm in patients readmitted within 1 year of surgery and 19.18mm in patients not readmitted within 1 year of surgery, were not significantly different between the two groups (p=0.2113). Conclusions: Our data indicate a significant improvement in hospital readmission rates up to one year after hip fixation surgery in patients with a TAD < 25mm with a decrease in readmissions of over 40% (50% vs 7.9%). This result builds upon past investigations by extending the follow-up time to 1 year after surgery and utilizing hospital readmissions as a metric for surgical success. With the well-documented physical and financial costs of hospital readmission after hip surgery, our study highlights a reduction of TAD < 25mm as an effective method of improving patient outcomes and reducing financial costs to patients and medical institutions. No relationship was found between TAD measurements and secondary outcomes, including loss of pre-injury ambulation and development of complications.

Keywords: hip fractures, hip reductions, readmission rates, open reduction internal fixation

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: Mornay Roberts-Lombard

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Consumers’ perceptions of value are crucial to ensuring their future commitment and behavioral intentions. As a result, service providers, such as Islamic banks, must provide their customers with products and services that are regarded as valuable, stimulating, collaborative, and competent. Therefore, the value provided to customers must meet or surpass their expectations, which can drive customers’ commitment (affective and calculative) and eventually favorably impact their future behavioral intentions. Consequently, Islamic banks in South Africa, as a growing African market, need to obtain a better understanding of the variables that impact Islamic banking customers’ value perceptions and how these impact their future behavioral intentions. Furthermore, it is necessary to investigate how customers’ perceived value perceptions impact their affective and calculative commitment and how the latter impact their future behavioral intentions. The purpose of this study is to bridge these gaps in knowledge, as the competitiveness of the Islamic banking industry in South Africa requires a deeper understanding of the aforementioned relationships. The study was exploratory and quantitative in nature, and data was collected from 250 Islamic banking customers using self-administered questionnaires. These banking customers resided in the Gauteng province of South Africa. Exploratory factor analysis, Pearson’s coefficient analysis, and multiple regression analysis were applied to measure the proposed hypotheses developed for the study. This research will aid Islamic banks in the country in potentially strengthening customers’ future commitment (affective and calculative) and positively impact their future behavioral intentions. The findings of the study established that service quality has a significant and positive impact on perceived value. Moreover, it was determined that perceived value has a favorable and considerable impact on affective and calculative commitment, while calculative commitment has a beneficial impact on behavioral intention. The research informs Islamic banks of the importance of service engagement in driving customer perceived value, which stimulates the future affective and calculative commitment of Islamic bank customers in an emerging market context. Finally, the study proposes guidelines for Islamic banks to develop an enhanced understanding of the factors that impact the perceived value-commitment-behavioral intention link in a competitive Islamic banking market in South Africa.

Keywords: perceived value, affective commitment, calculative commitment, behavioural intention

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Authors: Fan Yu

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An atrium is a place for natural climate exchanging of indoor and outdoor space of buildings, which plays an active role in the overall energy conservation, climate control and environmental purification of buildings. Its greatest contribution is serving as a natural light collector and distributor to solve the problem of natural lighting in large and deep spaces. However, in real situations, the atrium space often results in energy consumption due to improper design in considering its big size and large amount use of glass. Based on the purpose of energy conservation of buildings, this paper emphasizes the significance of natural lighting of atriums. Through literature research, case analysis and other methods, four factors, namely: the light transmittance through the top of the atrium, the geometric proportion of the atrium space, the size and position of windows and the material of the surface of walls in the atrium, were studied, and the influence of different architectural compositions on the natural light distribution of the atrium is discussed. Relying on the analysis of relevant cases, it is proposed that when designing the natural lighting of the atrium, the height and width of the atrium should be paid attention to, the atrium walls are required being rough surfaces and the atrium top-level windows need to be minimized in order to introduce more natural light into the buildings and achieve the purpose of energy conservation.

Keywords: energy conservation, atrium, natural lighting, architectural design

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Authors: Valeria Aman

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The presented study examines the impact of international mobility on knowledge production among mobile scientists and within the sending and receiving research groups. Scientists are relevant to the dynamics of knowledge production because scientific knowledge is mainly characterized by embeddedness and tacitness. International mobility enables the dissemination of scientific knowledge to other places and encourages new combinations of knowledge. It can also increase the interdisciplinarity of research by forming synergetic combinations of knowledge. Particularly innovative ideas can have their roots in related research domains and are sometimes transferred only through the physical mobility of scientists. Diversity among scientists with respect to their knowledge base can act as an engine for the creation of knowledge. It is therefore relevant to study how knowledge acquired through international mobility affects the knowledge production process. In certain research domains, international mobility may be essential to contextualize knowledge and to gain access to knowledge located at distant places. The knowledge production process contingent on the type of international mobility and the epistemic culture of a research field is examined. The production of scientific knowledge is a multi-faceted process, the output of which is mainly published in scholarly journals. Therefore, the study builds upon publication and citation data covered in Elsevier’s Scopus database for the period of 1996 to 2015. To analyse these data, bibliometric and social network analysis techniques are used. A basic analysis of scientific output using publication data, citation data and data on co-authored publications is combined with a content map analysis. Abstracts of publications indicate whether a research stay abroad makes an original contribution methodologically, theoretically or empirically. Moreover, co-citations are analysed to map linkages among scientists and emerging research domains. Finally, acknowledgements are studied that can function as channels of formal and informal communication between the actors involved in the process of knowledge production. The results provide better understanding of how the international mobility of scientists contributes to the production of knowledge, by contrasting the knowledge production dynamics of internationally mobile scientists with those being nationally mobile or immobile. Findings also allow indicating whether international mobility accelerates the production of knowledge and the emergence of new research fields.

Keywords: bibliometrics, diversity, interdisciplinarity, international mobility, knowledge production

Procedia PDF Downloads 287

Authors: S. Benchelha, H. C. Aoudjehane, M. Hakdaoui, R. El Hamdouni, H. Mansouri, T. Benchelha, M. Layelmam, M. Alaoui

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The logistic regression (LR) and multivariate adaptive regression spline (MarSpline) are applied and verified for analysis of landslide susceptibility map in Oudka, Morocco, using geographical information system. From spatial database containing data such as landslide mapping, topography, soil, hydrology and lithology, the eight factors related to landslides such as elevation, slope, aspect, distance to streams, distance to road, distance to faults, lithology map and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were calculated or extracted. Using these factors, landslide susceptibility indexes were calculated by the two mentioned methods. Before the calculation, this database was divided into two parts, the first for the formation of the model and the second for the validation. The results of the landslide susceptibility analysis were verified using success and prediction rates to evaluate the quality of these probabilistic models. The result of this verification was that the MarSpline model is the best model with a success rate (AUC = 0.963) and a prediction rate (AUC = 0.951) higher than the LR model (success rate AUC = 0.918, rate prediction AUC = 0.901).

Keywords: landslide susceptibility mapping, regression logistic, multivariate adaptive regression spline, Oudka, Taounate

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Authors: Ariful Islam, Showkat Ahmad Lone

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The Mukherjee-Islam Model is commonly used as a simple life time distribution to assess system reliability. The model exhibits a better fit for failure information and provides more appropriate information about hazard rate and other reliability measures as shown by various authors. It is possible to introduce a location parameter at a time (i.e., a time before which failure cannot occur) which makes it a more useful failure distribution than the existing ones. Even after shifting the location of the distribution, it represents a decreasing, constant and increasing failure rate. It has been shown to represent the appropriate lower tail of the distribution of random variables having fixed lower bound. This study presents the reliability computations and probability weighted moment estimation of three parameter model. A comparative analysis is carried out between three parameters finite range model and some existing bathtub shaped curve fitting models. Since probability weighted moment method is used, the results obtained can also be applied on small sample cases. Maximum likelihood estimation method is also applied in this study.

Keywords: comparative analysis, maximum likelihood estimation, Mukherjee-Islam failure model, probability weighted moment estimation, reliability

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Authors: Augustine Okolie, Johannes Müller, Mirjam Kretzchmar

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We adopt a maximum-likelihood framework to estimate parameters of a stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with contact tracing on a rooted random tree. Given the number of detectees per index case, our estimator allows to determine the degree distribution of the random tree as well as the tracing probability. Since we do not discover all infectees via contact tracing, this estimation is non-trivial. To keep things simple and stable, we develop an approximation suited for realistic situations (contract tracing probability small, or the probability for the detection of index cases small). In this approximation, the only epidemiological parameter entering the estimator is the basic reproduction number R0. The estimator is tested in a simulation study and applied to covid-19 contact tracing data from India. The simulation study underlines the efficiency of the method. For the empirical covid-19 data, we are able to compare different degree distributions and perform a sensitivity analysis. We find that particularly a power-law and a negative binomial degree distribution meet the data well and that the tracing probability is rather large. The sensitivity analysis shows no strong dependency on the reproduction number.

Keywords: stochastic SIR model on graph, contact tracing, branching process, parameter inference

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Authors: Abhijith N. V., Abhijit Pattnayak, Deepak Kumar

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Nowadays, a group of alloys, namely high entropy alloys (HEA), because of their excellent properties. However, the fabrication of HEAs requires multistage techniques, especially mill-ing, sieving, compaction, sintering, inert media, etc. These processes are laborious, costly, time-oriented, and unsuitable for commercial application. This study adopted a single-stage process-based HVOF thermal spray to develop HEA coating on SS304L substrates. The wear behavior of the deposited HEA coating was explored under different milling time durations (5h, 10h, and 15h, respectively). The effect of feedstock preparation, microstructure, surface chemistry, and mechanical and metallurgical properties on wear resistance was also investigated. The microstructure and composition of both coating and feedstock were evaluated by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS) analysis. Finally, the phase distribution was correlated by X-ray diffraction (XRD ) analysis. The results showed that 15h milled powder coating indicated better tribological than the base substrate and 5h,10h milled powder coating. A chemically stable Body Centered Cubic (BCC) solid solution phase was generated within the 15h milled powder-coated system, which resulted in superior tribological properties.

Keywords: high entropy alloys coating, wear mechanism, HVOF coating, microstructure

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Authors: Béla Kovács, Éva Bódi, Farzaneh Garousi, Szilvia Várallyay, Áron Soós, Xénia Vágó, Dávid Andrási

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In agriculture for analysis of elements in different food and food raw materials, moreover environmental samples generally flame atomic absorption spectrometers (FAAS), graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometers (GF-AAS), inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometers (ICP-OES) and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometers (ICP-MS) are routinely applied. An inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer (ICP-MS) is capable for analysis of 70-80 elements in multielemental mode, from 1-5 cm3 volume of a sample, moreover the detection limits of elements are in µg/kg-ng/kg (ppb-ppt) concentration range. All the analytical instruments have different physical and chemical interfering effects analysing the above types of samples. The smaller the concentration of an analyte and the larger the concentration of the matrix the larger the interfering effects. Nowadays there is very important to analyse growingly smaller concentrations of elements. From the above analytical instruments generally the inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer is capable of analysing the smallest concentration of elements. The applied ICP-MS instrument has Collision Cell Technology (CCT) also. Using CCT mode certain elements have better (smaller) detection limits with 1-3 magnitudes comparing to a normal ICP-MS analytical method. The CCT mode has better detection limits mainly for analysis of selenium, arsenic, germanium, vanadium and chromium. To elaborate an analytical method for trace elements with an inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer the most important interfering effects (problems) were evaluated: 1) Physical interferences; 2) Spectral interferences (elemental and molecular isobaric); 3) Effect of easily ionisable elements; 4) Memory interferences. Analysing food and food raw materials, moreover environmental samples an other (new) interfering effect emerged in ICP-MS, namely the effect of various matrixes having different evaporation and nebulization effectiveness, moreover having different quantity of carbon content of food and food raw materials, moreover environmental samples. In our research work the effect of different water-soluble compounds furthermore the effect of various quantity of carbon content (as sample matrix) were examined on changes of intensity of the applied elements. So finally we could find “opportunities” to decrease or eliminate the error of the analyses of applied elements (Cr, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Ge, As, Se, Mo, Cd, Sn, Sb, Te, Hg, Pb, Bi). To analyse these elements in the above samples, the most appropriate inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer is a quadrupole instrument applying a collision cell technique (CCT). The extent of interfering effect of carbon content depends on the type of compounds. The carbon content significantly affects the measured concentration (intensities) of the above elements, which can be corrected using different internal standards.

Keywords: elements, environmental and food samples, ICP-MS, interference effects

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Authors: Alisha Fisher

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Sex trafficking is a worldwide crisis that requires trauma-informed and survivor-centered media attention to accurate disseminate information. Much of the previous literature on sex trafficking tends to focus on the frequency of incidents, intervention, and support strategies for survivors, with few of them looking to how the media is conducting their reporting on sex trafficking cases to the public. Utilizing data of reports from the media of cases of sex trafficking in the two Canadian provinces with the highest cases of sex trafficking, Ontario and Nova Scotia, the authors sought to analyze the similarities and differences of how sex trafficking cases were being reported. A total of twenty articles were examined, with ten based within the province of Ontario and the remaining ten from the province of Nova Scotia. The authors coded in two processes, first, who the article was about, and second, the framing and content inclusion. The results suggest that there is high usage and reliance of voices and images of authority, with male people of color being shown as the perpetrators and white women being shown as the survivors. These findings can aid in the expansion of trauma-informed, survivor-centered media literacy of reports of sex trafficking to provide accurate insights and further developing robust methods to intersectional approaches to reporting cases of sex trafficking.

Keywords: sex trafficking, media coverage, Canada sex trafficking, content analysis

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Authors: Veronika Solilová, Danuše Nerudová

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The paper examines the interaction between the environmental taxation, size of government spending on environmental protection and greenhouse gas emissions and gross inland energy consumption. The aim is to analyze the effects of environmental taxation and government spending on environmental protection as an environmental policy instruments on greenhouse gas emissions and gross inland energy consumption in the EU15. The empirical study is performed using a VAR approach with the application of aggregated data of EU15 over the period 1995 to 2012. The results provide the evidence that the reactions of greenhouse gas emission and gross inland energy consumption to the shocks of environmental policy instruments are strong, mainly in the short term and decay to zero after about 8 years. Further, the reactions of the environmental policy instruments to the shocks of greenhouse gas emission and gross inland energy consumption are also strong in the short term, however with the deferred effects. In addition, the results show that government spending on environmental protection together with gross inland energy consumption has stronger effect on greenhouse gas emissions than environmental taxes in EU15 over the examined period.

Keywords: VAR analysis, greenhouse gas emissions, environmental taxation, government spending

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Authors: Roya Biabani, Mentore Vaccari, Piero Ferrari

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Accumulated microplastic (MPLs) in soil pose the risk of adsorbing and transporting polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) into the food chain or bodies. PCBs belong to a class of man-made hydrophobic organic chemicals (HOCs) that are classified as probable human carcinogens and a hazard to biota. Therefore, to take effective action and not aggravate the already recognized problems, the knowledge of PCB remediation in the presence of MPLs needs to be complete. Due to the high efficiency and little secondary pollution production, thermal desorption (TD) has been widely used for processing a variety of pollutants, especially for removing volatile and semi-volatile organic matter from contaminated solids and sediment. This study investigates the fate of PCB compounds during the thermal remediation method. For this, the PCB-contaminated soil was collected from the earth-canal downstream Caffaro S.p.A. chemical factory, which produced PCBs and PCB mixtures between 1930 and 1984. For MPL analysis, MPLs were separated by density separation and oxidation of organic matter. An operational range for the key parameters of thermal desorption processes was experimentally evaluated. Moreover, the temperature treatment characteristics of the PCBs-contaminated soil under anaerobic and aerobic conditions were studied using the Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA).

Keywords: contaminated soils, microplastics, polychlorinated biphenyls, thermal desorption

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Authors: Santhita Tungkajiwangkoon, Yoshikazu Hoshi

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Three Japaneses Drosera species are the good model to study genome organization with highly specialized morphological group for insect trapping, and has revealed anti-inflammatory, and antibacterial effects, so there must be a reason for botanists are so appealing in these plants. Cytology and Flow cytometry were used to investigate the genetic stability and ploidy estimation in three related species. The cytological and Flow cytometry analysis were done in Drosera rotundifolia L., Drosera spatulata Labill and Drosera tokaiensis. The cytological studies by fluorescence staining (DAPI) showed that D. tokaiensis was an alloploid (2n=6x=60, hexaploid) which is a natural hybrid polyploids of D. rotundifolia and D. spatulata. D. rotundifolia was a diploid with the middle size of metaphase chromosomes (2n=2x=20) as a paternal origin and D. spatulata was a tetraploid with small size of metaphase chromosome (2n=4x=40) as a maternal origin. We confirmed by Flow cytometry analysis to determine the ploidy level and DNA content of the plants. The 2C-DNA values of D. rotundiflolia were 2.8 pg, D. spatulata was 1.6 pg and D. tokaiensis was 3.9 pg. However, 2C- DNA values of D. tokaiensis should be related from their parents but in the present study the 2C-DNA values of D. tokaiensis was no relation from the theoretical of hybrids representing additive parental. Possibility of D. tokaiensis is a natural hybrid, which is also hybridization in natural evolution can cause the genome reduction in plant.

Keywords: drosera, hybrid, cytology, flow cytometry

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Authors: Karl Peltzer, Supa Pengpid

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Introduction: The aim of this study was to assess suicidal ideation and associated factors in school-going adolescents in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Member States. Methods: The analysis included 30284 school children aged 13-15 years from seven ASEAN that participated in the cross-sectional Global School-based Student Health Survey (GSHS) between 2007 and 2013. Results: The overall prevalence of suicidal ideation across seven ASEAN countries (excluding Brunei) was 12.3%, significantly higher in girls (15.1%) than boys (9.3%). Among eight ASEAN countries with the highest prevalence of suicidal ideation was in the Philippines (17.0%) and Vietnam (16.9%) and the lowest in Myanmar (1.1%) and Indonesia (4.2%). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, female gender, older age (14 or 15 years), living in a low income or lower middle income country, having no friends, loneliness, bullying victimization, having been in a physical fight in the past 12 months, lack of parental or guardian support, tobacco use and having a history of ever got drunk were associated with suicidal ideatiion. Conclusion: Different rates of suicidal ideation were observed in ASEAN member states. Several risk factors for suicidal ideation were identified which can help guide preventive efforts.

Keywords: adolesents, ASEAN, correlates, suicidal behaviour

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Authors: Nahla Khatib

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This study investigated several learning difficulties that affected the classroom learning experience of preservice students who are studying general science and methods of teaching science students at Faculty of Educational Studies at the Arab Open University (AOU) in Amman, Jordan. The focus questions for this study were to find answers for the following: 1. What are the main areas of learning difficulty among preservice students towards science education? 2. What are the main aspects of reducing obstacles towards success in science education? To achieve this goal, the researcher prepared a questionnaire which included 30 items to point out the learning difficulties among preservice students towards science education. The questionnaire was distributed among students enrolled in the general science courses 1&2 and methods of teaching science courses at the beginning of the spring semester of year (2013-2014). After collecting the filled questionnaire a descriptive statistical analysis was carried out (means and standard deviation) for the items of the questionnaire. After analyzing the data statistically our findings showed that student control–factors as well as course controlled factor, factors related to the nature of science, and factors related to the role of instructor affected student success toward science education. The study was concluded with a number of recommendations.

Keywords: nature of science, preservice teachers, science education, learning difficulties

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Authors: H. Akhloufi, M. Hulscher, J. M. Prins, I. H. Van Der Sijs, D. Melles, A. Verbon

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Background: A timely switch from intravenous to oral antibiotic therapy has many advantages, such as reduced incidence of IV-line related infections, a decreased hospital length of stay and less workload for healthcare professionals with equivalent patient safety. Additionally, numerous studies have demonstrated significant decreases in costs of a timely intravenous to oral antibiotic therapy switch, while maintaining efficacy and safety. However, a considerable variation in iv to oral antibiotic switch therapy criteria has been described in literature. Here, we report the development of a set of iv to oral switch criteria that are generally applicable in all hospitals. Material/methods: A RAND-modified Delphi procedure, which was composed of 3 rounds, was used. This Delphi procedure is a widely used structured process to develop consensus using multiple rounds of questionnaires within a qualified panel of selected experts. The international expert panel was multidisciplinary and composed out of clinical microbiologists, infectious disease consultants and clinical pharmacists. This panel of 19 experts appraised 6 major intravenous to oral antibiotic switch therapy criteria and operationalized these criteria using 41 measurable conditions extracted from the literature. The procedure to select a concise set of iv to oral switch criteria included 2 questionnaire rounds and a face-to-face meeting. Results: The procedure resulted in the selection of 16 measurable conditions, which operationalize 6 major intravenous to oral antibiotic switch therapy criteria. The following 6 major switch therapy criteria were selected: (1) Vital signs should be good or improving when bad. (2) Signs and symptoms related to the infection have to be resolved or improved. (3) The gastrointestinal tract has to be intact and functioning. (4) The oral route should not be compromised. (5) Absence of contra-indicated infections. (6) An oral variant of the antibiotic with good bioavailability has to exist. Conclusions: This systematic stepwise method which combined evidence and expert opinion resulted in a feasible set of 6 major intravenous to oral antibiotic switch therapy criteria operationalized by 16 measurable conditions. This set of early antibiotic iv to oral switch criteria can be used in daily practice in all adult hospital patients. Future use in audits and as rules in computer assisted decision support systems will lead to improvement of antimicrobial steward ship programs.

Keywords: antibiotic resistance, antibiotic stewardship, intravenous to oral, switch therapy

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Authors: Fatima Al-Humaid

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This research work was done to investigate the cause of paralysis in Najdi lambs born in certain farms where the drinking water and diet contained high concentrations of sulphur. The drinking water in these farms was obtained from deep bore wells drilled in the farm. The lambs developed paralysis of the hind limbs at the age of 4-6 weeks and their condition deteriorated continuously until they finally died. The appetite and suckling ability remained good throughout the course of the disease but when the lambs were completely unable to move and reach for the udder, feed and water they died. Postmortem examination of the brain of paralyzed lambs showed that it was liquefied. When the brain was examined histologically, a liquefactive necrosis was seen in the form of cavities in the nervous tissue. Similar histologic picture was seen in the spinal cord of the affected lambs. Analysis for the mineral content of the fodder showed that the concentration of sulphur was 21.6 3.4 g/kg DM which is considered very high for the nutrition of sheep. Analysis for the concentration of copper and selenium in the feed showed that the concentrations of both were normal. This excluded diseases such as swayback which is caused by copper deficiency and white muscle disease, which caused by selenium deficiency. Both of these two last diseases are characterized by paralysis of lambs.

Keywords: brain histology, sulphur poisoning, Najdi sheep, veterinary medicine

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Authors: Ntandazo Dlatu, Benjamin Longo-Mbenza, Andre Renzaho, Ruffin Appalata, Yolande Yvonne Valeria Matoumona Mavoungou, Mbenza Ben Longo, Kenneth Ekoru, Blaise Makoso, Gedeon Longo Longo

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Background: The gap between complexities related to the integration of Tuberculosis /HIV control and evidence-based knowledge motivated the initiation of the study. Therefore, the objective of this study was to explore correlations between national TB management guidelines, multiple deprivation indexes, quantiles, components and levels of Tuberculosis control programme using mathematical modeling in rural O.R. Tambo District Health Facilities, South Africa. Methods: The study design used mixed secondary data analysis and cross-sectional analysis between 2009 and 2013 across O.R Tambo District, Eastern Cape, South Africa using univariate/ bivariate analysis, linear multiple regression models, and multivariate discriminant analysis. Health inequalities indicators and component of an impediment to the tuberculosis control programme were evaluated. Results: In total, 62 400 records for TB notification were analyzed for the period 2009-2013. There was a significant but negative between Financial Year Expenditure (r= -0.894; P= 0.041) Seropositive HIV status(r= -0.979; P= 0.004), Population Density (r = -0.881; P= 0.048) and the number of TB defaulter in all TB cases. It was shown unsuccessful control of TB management program through correlations between numbers of new PTB smear positive, TB defaulter new smear-positive, TB failure all TB, Pulmonary Tuberculosis case finding index and deprivation-concentration-dispersion index. It was shown successful TB program control through significant and negative associations between declining numbers of death in co-infection of HIV and TB, TB deaths all TB and SMIAD gradient/ deprivation-concentration-dispersion index. The multivariate linear model was summarized by unadjusted r of 96%, adjusted R2 of 95 %, Standard Error of estimate of 0.110, R2 changed of 0.959 and significance for variance change for P=0.004 to explain the prediction of TB defaulter in all TB with equation y= 8.558-0.979 x number of HIV seropositive. After adjusting for confounding factors (PTB case finding the index, TB defaulter new smear-positive, TB death in all TB, TB defaulter all TB, and TB failure in all TB). The HIV and TB death, as well as new PTB smear positive, were identified as the most important, significant, and independent indicator to discriminate most deprived deprivation index far from other deprivation quintiles 2-5 using discriminant analysis. Conclusion: Elimination of poverty such as overcrowding, lack of sanitation and environment of highest burden of HIV might end the TB threat in O.R Tambo District, Eastern Cape, South Africa. Furthermore, ongoing adequate budget comprehensive, holistic and collaborative initiative towards Sustainable Developmental Goals (SDGs) is necessary for complete elimination of TB in poor O.R Tambo District.

Keywords: tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, success, failure, control program, health inequalities, South Africa

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Authors: Zhu Zhizheng, Huang Yong, Li Tong

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In the context of land and space development and resource environmental protection. Due to its special geographical location, mountain-plain transition zones are limited by many factors such as topography, mountain forest protection, etc., and their ecology is also more sensitive, with the characteristics of disaster susceptibility and resource gradient. Taking Dujiangyan City, Chengdu as an example, this paper establishes resilience evaluation indicators on the basis of ecological suitability evaluation through the analysis of current situation data and relevant policies: water conservation evaluation, soil and water conservation evaluation, biodiversity evaluation, soil erosion sensitivity evaluation, etc. Based on GIS spatial analysis, the ecological suitability and resilience evaluation results of Dujiangyan city were obtained by disjunction operation. The ecological resilience level of Dujiangyan city was divided into three categories: high, medium and low, with an area ratio of 50.81%, 16.4% and 32.79%, respectively. This paper can provide ideas for solving the contradiction between man and land in the mountain-plain transition zones, and also provide a certain basis for the construction of regional ecological protection and the delineation of three zones and three lines.

Keywords: urban and rural planning, ecological resilience, dujiangyan city, mountain-plain transition zones

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Authors: Venkata Ramana Pamu

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This paper is a case study of a 5310 ML capacity Raw Water Reservoir (RWR), situated in Indian state Rajasthan, which is a part of Rajasthan Rural Water Supply & Fluorosis Mitigation Project. This RWR embankment was constructed by locally available material on natural ground profile. Height of the embankment was varying from 2m to 10m.This is due to existing ground level was varying. Reservoir depth 9m including 1.5m free board and 1V:3H slopes were provided both upstream and downstream side. Proper soil investigation, tests were done and it was confirmed that the existing soil is sandy silt. The existing excavated earth was used as filling material for embankment construction, due to this controlling seepage from upstream to downstream be a challenging task. Slope stability and Seismic analysis of the embankment done by Conventional method for both full reservoir condition and rapid drawdown. Horizontal filter at toe level was provided along with upstream side PCC (Plain Cement Concrete) block and HDPE (High Density poly ethylene) lining as a remedy to control seepage. HDPE lining was also provided at storage area of the reservoir bed level. Mulching was done for downstream side slope protection.

Keywords: raw water reservoir, seepage, seismic analysis, slope stability

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Authors: Buruk Kitachew Wossenyeleh

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Groundwater is the largest freshwater reservoir in the world. Like the other reservoirs of the hydrologic cycle, it is a finite resource. This study focused on the groundwater modeling of the Ter Kamerenbos well field to understand the groundwater flow system and the impact of different scenarios. The study area covers 68.9Km2 in the Brussels Capital Region and is situated in two river catchments, i.e., Zenne River and Woluwe Stream. The aquifer system has three layers, but in the modeling, they are considered as one layer due to their hydrogeological properties. The catchment aquifer system is replenished by direct recharge from rainfall. The groundwater recharge of the catchment is determined using the spatially distributed water balance model called WetSpass, and it varies annually from zero to 340mm. This groundwater recharge is used as the top boundary condition for the groundwater modeling of the study area. During the groundwater modeling using Processing MODFLOW, constant head boundary conditions are used in the north and south boundaries of the study area. For the east and west boundaries of the study area, head-dependent flow boundary conditions are used. The groundwater model is calibrated manually and automatically using observed hydraulic heads in 12 observation wells. The model performance evaluation showed that the root means the square error is 1.89m and that the NSE is 0.98. The head contour map of the simulated hydraulic heads indicates the flow direction in the catchment, mainly from the Woluwe to Zenne catchment. The simulated head in the study area varies from 13m to 78m. The higher hydraulic heads are found in the southwest of the study area, which has the forest as a land-use type. This calibrated model was run for the climate change scenario and well operation scenario. Climate change may cause the groundwater recharge to increase by 43% and decrease by 30% in 2100 from current conditions for the high and low climate change scenario, respectively. The groundwater head varies for a high climate change scenario from 13m to 82m, whereas for a low climate change scenario, it varies from 13m to 76m. If doubling of the pumping discharge assumed, the groundwater head varies from 13m to 76.5m. However, if the shutdown of the pumps is assumed, the head varies in the range of 13m to 79m. It is concluded that the groundwater model is done in a satisfactory way with some limitations, and the model output can be used to understand the aquifer system under steady-state conditions. Finally, some recommendations are made for the future use and improvement of the model.

Keywords: Ter Kamerenbos, groundwater modelling, WetSpass, climate change, well operation

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