Search results for: long term services and supports
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 11723

Search results for: long term services and supports

2453 Optimum Performance of the Gas Turbine Power Plant Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System and Statistical Analysis

Authors: Thamir K. Ibrahim, M. M. Rahman, Marwah Noori Mohammed

Abstract:

This study deals with modeling and performance enhancements of a gas-turbine combined cycle power plant. A clean and safe energy is the greatest challenges to meet the requirements of the green environment. These requirements have given way the long-time governing authority of steam turbine (ST) in the world power generation, and the gas turbine (GT) will replace it. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the characteristics of the GT system and optimize its operating strategy by developing a simulation system. The integrated model and simulation code for exploiting the performance of gas turbine power plant are developed utilizing MATLAB code. The performance code for heavy-duty GT and CCGT power plants are validated with the real power plant of Baiji GT and MARAFIQ CCGT plants the results have been satisfactory. A new technology of correlation was considered for all types of simulation data; whose coefficient of determination (R2) was calculated as 0.9825. Some of the latest launched correlations were checked on the Baiji GT plant and apply error analysis. The GT performance was judged by particular parameters opted from the simulation model and also utilized Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy System (ANFIS) an advanced new optimization technology. The best thermal efficiency and power output attained were about 56% and 345MW respectively. Thus, the operation conditions and ambient temperature are strongly influenced on the overall performance of the GT. The optimum efficiency and power are found at higher turbine inlet temperatures. It can be comprehended that the developed models are powerful tools for estimating the overall performance of the GT plants.

Keywords: gas turbine, optimization, ANFIS, performance, operating conditions

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2452 A Systematic Review on Development of a Cost Estimation Framework: A Case Study of Nigeria

Authors: Babatunde Dosumu, Obuks Ejohwomu, Akilu Yunusa-Kaltungo

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Cost estimation in construction is often difficult, particularly when dealing with risks and uncertainties, which are inevitable and peculiar to developing countries like Nigeria. Direct consequences of these are major deviations in cost, duration, and quality. The fundamental aim of this study is to develop a framework for assessing the impacts of risk on cost estimation, which in turn causes variabilities between contract sum and final account. This is very important, as initial estimates given to clients should reflect the certain magnitude of consistency and accuracy, which the client builds other planning-related activities upon, and also enhance the capabilities of construction industry professionals by enabling better prediction of the final account from the contract sum. In achieving this, a systematic literature review was conducted with cost variability and construction projects as search string within three databases: Scopus, Web of science, and Ebsco (Business source premium), which are further analyzed and gap(s) in knowledge or research discovered. From the extensive review, it was found that factors causing deviation between final accounts and contract sum ranged between 1 and 45. Besides, it was discovered that a cost estimation framework similar to Building Cost Information Services (BCIS) is unavailable in Nigeria, which is a major reason why initial estimates are very often inconsistent, leading to project delay, abandonment, or determination at the expense of the huge sum of money invested. It was concluded that the development of a cost estimation framework that is adjudged an important tool in risk shedding rather than risk-sharing in project risk management would be a panacea to cost estimation problems, leading to cost variability in the Nigerian construction industry by the time this ongoing Ph.D. research is completed. It was recommended that practitioners in the construction industry should always take into account risk in order to facilitate the rapid development of the construction industry in Nigeria, which should give stakeholders a more in-depth understanding of the estimation effectiveness and efficiency to be adopted by stakeholders in both the private and public sectors.

Keywords: cost variability, construction projects, future studies, Nigeria

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2451 The Impact of Unconditional and Conditional Conservatism on Cost of Equity Capital: A Quantile Regression Approach for MENA Countries

Authors: Khalifa Maha, Ben Othman Hakim, Khaled Hussainey

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Prior empirical studies have investigated the economic consequences of accounting conservatism by examining its impact on the cost of equity capital (COEC). However, findings are not conclusive. We assume that inconsistent results of such association may be attributed to the regression models used in data analysis. To address this issue, we re-examine the effect of different dimension of accounting conservatism: unconditional conservatism (U_CONS) and conditional conservatism (C_CONS) on the COEC for a sample of listed firms from Middle Eastern and North Africa (MENA) countries, applying quantile regression (QR) approach developed by Koenker and Basset (1978). While classical ordinary least square (OLS) method is widely used in empirical accounting research, however it may produce inefficient and bias estimates in the case of departures from normality or long tail error distribution. QR method is more powerful than OLS to handle this kind of problem. It allows the coefficient on the independent variables to shift across the distribution of the dependent variable whereas OLS method only estimates the conditional mean effects of a response variable. We find as predicted that U_CONS has a significant positive effect on the COEC however, C_CONS has a negative impact. Findings suggest also that the effect of the two dimensions of accounting conservatism differs considerably across COEC quantiles. Comparing results from QR method with those of OLS, this study throws more lights on the association between accounting conservatism and COEC.

Keywords: unconditional conservatism, conditional conservatism, cost of equity capital, OLS, quantile regression, emerging markets, MENA countries

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2450 The Role of Uzbek Music Culture in Tourism

Authors: Odina Omonjonova

Abstract:

The Uzbek people have a rich history and a rapidly developing music culture for several centuries. Monuments, shrines, places of culture and spirituality, which are the most beautiful proofs of history, show that this country has been a center of wisdom since ancient times. Nowadays, Uzbekistan is opening its face to the world with its unique spiritual heritage, historical monuments, peaceful corners and beautiful landscapes. Tourists from many countries visit and get acquainted with Uzbek culture and history and acknowledge it with great respect. The place of traditional music in describing the national color on the world scale is incomparable. Oral folk works that have reached this period, lapar, yalla, songs and ‘Shashmaqom’ are the intangible spiritual wealth of the Uzbek people. They embody the ancient and great history, spiritual world, artistic philosophy, spirit and values of our nation. National music is the main part of the culture of the nation, and here it is worth emphasizing the importance of music in the tourism of Uzbekistan. Foreign guests can enjoy our national music in various ways: (1) Concerts: There are many concert halls and cultural centers in the cities of Uzbekistan, where many concerts and events are held. Well-known musicians, singers and ensembles add more beauty to the beauty of these places, performing musical samples in Shashmaqom and other traditional styles. In these concert programs, tourists will have the opportunity to listen to works of art in an attractive live performance. (2) Festivals: Many music festivals are held in Uzbekistan throughout the year. The ‘Sharq Taronalari’ international music festival is a unique holiday where musicians from all over the world gather to celebrate the diversity of musical traditions. In recent years, traditional music has been played regularly in a number of festivals such as the ‘International Maqom Festival’, ‘International Craft Festival’ and ‘Boysun Bahari’ held in our country, which has increased the attention of travelers to our music culture. (3) Cultural seminars. Tourists interested in hands-on musical experience can participate in musical workshops. These classes allow tourists to learn to play traditional musical instruments and even participate in group activities. (4) Street musicians: In the central places and ancient streets of Uzbekistan's cities, we can meet street musicians playing soulful tunes. Performing and singing folklore samples on modern instruments directly attracts foreign guests. In Uzbekistan, national music and tourism have a direct and indirect connection. Music serves as a bridge between the country's history and its modern identity and enriches the travel experience. The impact of national music on tourism goes beyond mere statistics. Although tourist arrivals have increased significantly due to music-related attractions, the real impact lies in the stories and live testimonies of visitors. Travelers often say that the rhythms of Uzbekistan touched their hearts and broadened their worldview. In addition, music tourism strengthens the country's economy, provides employment, supports local artisans and performers, and provides an opportunity to showcase their talents to a global audience. In short, Uzbekistan is not only a place of interest, but it is among the countries that attract travelers with its unique national music. Uzbek music, folklore, songs, from the wonderful melodies of ‘Shashmaqom’ to the attractive sounds of traditional musical instruments, give aesthetic and spiritual pleasure and are important in organizing a large-scale trip for tourists visiting the country.

Keywords: traditional music, folklore, shashmaqom, tourism, festivals, street musicians, traditional musical instruments

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2449 The Emergence of a Hexagonal Pattern in Shear-Thickening Suspension under Orbital Shaking

Authors: Li-Xin Shi, Meng-Fei Hu, Song-Chuan Zhao

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Dense particle suspensions composed of mixtures of particles and fluid are omnipresent in natural phenomena and in industrial processes. Dense particle suspension under shear may lose its uniform state to large local density and stress fluctuations which challenge the mean-field description of the suspension system. However, it still remains largely debated and far from fully understood of the internal mechanism. Here, a dynamics of a non-Brownian suspension is explored under horizontal swirling excitations, where high-density patches appear when the excitation frequency is increased beyond a threshold. These density patches are self-assembled into a hexagonal pattern across the system with further increases in frequency. This phenomenon is underlined by the spontaneous growth of density waves (instabilities) along the flow direction, and the motion of these density waves preserves the circular path and the frequency of the oscillation. To investigate the origin of the phenomena, the constitutive relationship calibrated by independent rheological measurements is implemented into a simplified two-phase flow model. And the critical instability frequency in theory calculation matches the experimental measurements quantitatively without free parameters. By further analyzing the model, the instability is found to be closely related to the discontinuous shear thickening transition of the suspension. In addition, the long-standing density waves degenerate into random fluctuations when replacing the free surface with rigid confinement. It indicates that the shear-thickened state is intrinsically heterogeneous, and the boundary conditions are crucial for the development of local disturbance.

Keywords: dense suspension, instability, self-organization, density wave

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2448 Does Pakistan Stock Exchange Offer Diversification Benefits to Regional and International Investors: A Time-Frequency (Wavelets) Analysis

Authors: Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, Muhammad Zakaria, Mobeen Ur Rehman, Saniya Khaild

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This study examines the co-movement between the Pakistan, Indian, S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 stock markets using weekly data from 1998 to 2013. The time-frequency relationship between the selected stock markets is conducted by using measures of continuous wavelet power spectrum, cross-wavelet transform and cross (squared) wavelet coherency. The empirical evidence suggests strong dependence between Pakistan and Indian stock markets. The co-movement of Pakistani index with U.S and Japanese, the developed markets, varies over time and frequency where the long-run relationship is dominant. The results of cross wavelet and wavelet coherence analysis indicate moderate covariance and correlation between stock indexes and the markets are in phase (i.e. cyclical in nature) over varying durations. Pakistan stock market was lagging during the entire period in relation to Indian stock market, corresponding to the 8~32 and then 64~256 weeks scale. Similar findings are evident for S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 indexes, however, the relationship occurs during the later period of study. All three wavelet indicators suggest strong evidence of higher co-movement during 2008-09 global financial crises. The empirical analysis reveals a strong evidence that the portfolio diversification benefits vary across frequencies and time. This analysis is unique and have several practical implications for regional and international investors while assigning the optimal weightage of different assets in portfolio formulation.

Keywords: co-movement, Pakistan stock exchange, S&P 500, Nikkei 225, wavelet analysis

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2447 The Role of Zakat on Sustainable Economic Development by Rumah Zakat

Authors: Selamat Muliadi

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This study aimed to explain conceptual the role of Zakat on sustainable economic development by Rumah Zakat. Rumah Zakat is a philanthropic institution that manages zakat and other social funds through community empowerment programs. In running the program, including economic empowerment and socio health services are designed for these recipients. Rumah Zakat's connection with the establisment of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) which is to help impoverished recipients economically and socially. It’s an important agenda that the government input into national development, even the region. The primary goal of Zakat on sustainable economic development, not only limited to economic variables but based on Islamic principles, has comprehensive characteristics. The characteristics include moral, material, spiritual, and social aspects. In other words, sustainable economic development is closely related to improving people’s living standard (Mustahiq). The findings provide empiricial evidence regarding the positive contribution and effectiveness of zakat targeting in reducing poverty and improve the welfare of people related with the management of zakat. The purpose of this study was to identify the role of Zakat on sustainable economic development, which was applied by Rumah Zakat. This study used descriptive method and qualitative analysis. The data source was secondary data collected from documents and texts related to the research topic, be it books, articles, newspapers, journals, or others. The results showed that the role of zakat on sustainable economic development by Rumah Zakat has been quite good and in accordance with the principle of Islamic economics. Rumah Zakat programs are adapted to support intended development. The contribution of the productive program implementation has been aligned with four goals in the Sustainable Development Goals, i.e., Senyum Juara (Quality Education), Senyum Lestari (Clean Water and Sanitation), Senyum Mandiri (Entrepreneur Program) and Senyum Sehat (Free Maternity Clinic). The performance of zakat in the sustainable economic empowerment community at Rumah Zakat is taking into account dimensions such as input, process, output, and outcome.

Keywords: Zakat, social welfare, sustainable economic development, charity

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2446 Application of Hydrologic Engineering Centers and River Analysis System Model for Hydrodynamic Analysis of Arial Khan River

Authors: Najeeb Hassan, Mahmudur Rahman

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Arial Khan River is one of the main south-eastward outlets of the River Padma. This river maintains a meander channel through its course and is erosional in nature. The specific objective of the research is to study and evaluate the hydrological characteristics in the form of assessing changes of cross-sections, discharge, water level and velocity profile in different stations and to create a hydrodynamic model of the Arial Khan River. Necessary data have been collected from Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) and Center for Environment and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS). Satellite images have been observed from Google earth. In this study, hydrodynamic model of Arial Khan River has been developed using well known steady open channel flow code Hydrologic Engineering Centers and River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) using field surveyed geometric data. Cross-section properties at 22 locations of River Arial Khan for the years 2011, 2013 and 2015 were also analysed. 1-D HEC-RAS model has been developed using the cross sectional data of 2015 and appropriate boundary condition is being used to run the model. This Arial Khan River model is calibrated using the pick discharge of 2015. The applicable value of Mannings roughness coefficient (n) is adjusted through the process of calibration. The value of water level which ties with the observed data to an acceptable accuracy is taken as calibrated model. The 1-D HEC-RAS model then validated by using the pick discharges from 2009-2018. Variation in observed water level in the model and collected water level data is being compared to validate the model. It is observed that due to seasonal variation, discharge of the river changes rapidly and Mannings roughness coefficient (n) also changes due to the vegetation growth along the river banks. This river model may act as a tool to measure flood area in future. By considering the past pick flow discharge, it is strongly recommended to improve the carrying capacity of Arial Khan River to protect the surrounding areas from flash flood.

Keywords: BWDB, CEGIS, HEC-RAS

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2445 Neonatal Mortality, Infant Mortality, and Under-five Mortality Rates in the Provinces of Zimbabwe: A Geostatistical and Spatial Analysis of Public Health Policy Provisions

Authors: Jevonte Abioye, Dylan Savary

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The aim of this research is to present a disaggregated geostatistical analysis of the subnational provincial trends of child mortality variation in Zimbabwe from a child health policy perspective. Soon after gaining independence in 1980, the government embarked on efforts towards promoting equitable health care, namely through the provision of primary health care. Government intervention programmes brought hope and promise, but achieving equity in primary health care coverage was hindered by previous existing disparities in maternal health care disproportionately concentrated in urban settings to the detriment of rural communities. The article highlights policies and programs adopted by the government during the millennium development goals period between 1990-2015 as a response to the inequities that characterised the country’s maternal health care. A longitudinal comparative method for a spatial variation on child mortality rates across provinces is developed based on geostatistical analysis. Cross-sectional and time-series data was extracted from the World Health Organisation (WHO) global health observatory data repository, demographic health survey reports, and previous academic and technical publications. Results suggest that although health care policy was uniform across provinces, not all provinces received the same antenatal and perinatal services. Accordingly, provincial rates of child mortality growth between 1994 and 2015 varied significantly. Evidence on the trends of child mortality rates and maternal health policies in Zimbabwe can be valuable for public child health policy planning and public service delivery design both in Zimbabwe and across developing countries pursuing the sustainable development agenda.

Keywords: antenatal care, perinatal care, infant mortality rate, neonatal mortality rate, under-five mortality rate, millennium development goals, sustainable development agenda

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2444 H₆P₂W₁₈O₆₂.14H₂O Catalyzed Synthesis and X-Ray Study of α-Aminophosphonates

Authors: Sarra Boughaba

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The α-aminophosphonates have received considerable attention in organic and medicinal chemistry because of their structural resemblance with α-amino acids. They are used as antitumor agents, anti-inflammatory and antibiotics. As a result, a number of procedures have been developed for their synthesis. However, many of these methods suffer from some disadvantages such as long reaction times, environmental pollution caused by utilization of organic solvents, and expensive catalyst. On the other hand, thiazole components, particularly 2-aminothiazole is an important class of heterocyclic compounds. They appear in the structure of natural products and biologically actives compounds, thiamine (vitamin-B), and some antibiotics drugs (penicillin, micrococcin). In the past few years, heteropolyacids have received great attention as environmentally benign catalysts for organic synthetic processes, they possess unique physicochemical properties, such as super-acidity, high thermal and chemical stability, ability to accept and release electrons and high proton mobility, and the possibility of varying their acidity and oxidizing potential. In this study, an efficient and eco-friendly process has been developed for the synthesis of α-aminophosphonates containing aminothiazole moiety via Kabachnik-Field reaction catalyzed by H₆P₂W₁₈O₆₂.14H₂O as reusable catalyst, by condensation of aromatic aldehydes, 2-aminothiazole and triethylphosphite under free conditions. The X-ray crystallographic data of obtained compounds were provided. The main advantages of our protocol include the absence of solvent in the reaction, easy work-up, short reaction time, atom-economy and reusability of catalyst without significant loss of its activity.

Keywords: aminophosphonates, green synthesis, H₆P₂W₁₈O₆₂.14H₂O catalyst, x-ray study

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2443 Study on the Contributions and Social Validity of an Online Autism Training for School Staff

Authors: Myriam Rousseau, Suzie McKinnon, Mathieu Mireault, Anaïs V. Berthiaume, Marie-Hélène Poulin, Jacinthe Bourassa, Louis-Simon Maltais

Abstract:

The increasing presence of young people with autism is forcing schools to adapt to this new situation and to offer services that meet the needs of this clientele. However, school staff often feels unqualified to support these students, lacking the preparation, skills and training to meet their needs. Continuing education for these staff is therefore essential to ensure that they can meet the needs of these students. As a result, the Government of Quebec has developed a bilingual (French and English) online training on autism specific to the needs of school staff. Therefore, adequate training for all school staff is likely to provide quality learning opportunities for these students. The research project focuses on the participants' appreciation, contributions, and social validity of the training. More specifically, it aims to: 1) evaluate the knowledge and self-efficacy of the participants, 2) evaluate the social validity and 3) document the evaluation of the ergonomics of the platform hosting the training. The evaluation carried out as part of this descriptive study uses a quantitative method. Data are collected using questionnaires completed online. The analysis of preliminary data reveals that participants' knowledge of autism and their sense of self-efficacy increased significantly. They value the training positively and consider it to be acceptable, appropriate, and suitable. The participants find it important for school staff to take this training. Almost all the items measuring the ergonomics of the platform have averages above 4.57/5. In general, the study shows that the training allows participating of the trainee school staff to improve their knowledge of autism and their sense of self-efficacy with young people with autism. In addition, participants recognize that the training has good social validity and appreciate the online modality. However, these results should be interpreted with caution given the limited number of participants who completed the research project. It is therefore important to continue the research with a larger number of participants to allow an adequate and general representativeness of the social validity, the feeling of competence and the appreciation of the platform.

Keywords: autism, online training, school staff, social validity

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2442 Moving from Practice to Theory

Authors: Maria Lina Garrido

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This paper aims to reflect upon instruction in English classes with the specific purpose of reading comprehension development, having as its paradigm the considerations presented by William Grabe, in his book Reading in a Second Language: Moving from theory to practice. His concerns regarding the connection between research findings and instructional practices have stimulated the present author to re-evaluate both her long practice as an English reading teacher and as the author of two reading textbooks for graduate students. Elements of the reading process such as linguistic issues, prior knowledge, reading strategies, critical evaluation, and motivation are the main foci of this analysis as far as the activities developed in the classroom are concerned. The experience with university candidates on postgraduate courses with different levels of English knowledge in Bahia, Brazil, has definitely demanded certain adjustments to this author`s classroom setting. Word recognition based on cognates, for example, has been emphasized given the fact that academic texts use many Latin words which have the same roots as the Brazilian Portuguese lexicon. Concerning syntactic parsing, the tenses/verbal aspects, modality and linking words are included in the curriculum, but not with the same depth as the general English curricula. Reading strategies, another essential predictor for developing reading skills, have been largely stimulated in L2 classes in order to compensate for a lack of the appropriate knowledge of the foreign language. This paper presents results that demonstrate that this author`s teaching practice is compatible with the implications and instruction concerning the reading process outlined by Grabe, however, it admits that each class demands specific instructions to meet the needs of that particular group.

Keywords: classroom practice, instructional activities, reading comprehension, reading skills

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2441 Flow-Oriented Incentive Spirometry in the Reversal of Diaphragmatic Dysfunction in Bariatric Surgery Postoperative Period

Authors: Eli Maria Forti-Pazzianotto, Carolina Moraes Da Costa, Daniela Faleiros Berteli Merino, Maura Rigoldi Simões Da Rocha, Irineu Rasera-Junior

Abstract:

There is no conclusive evidence to support the use of one type or brand of incentive espirometry over others. The decision as to which equipment is best, have being based on empirical assessment of patient acceptance, ease of use, and cost. The aim was to evaluate the effects of use of two methodologies of breathing exercises, performed by flow-oriented incentive spirometry, in the reversal of diaphragmatic dysfunction in postoperative bariatric surgery. 38 morbid obese women were selected. Respiratory muscle strength was evaluated through the nasal inspiratory pressure (NIP), and the respiratory muscles endurance, through incremental test by measurement of sustained maximal inspiratory pressure (SMIP). They were randomized in 2 groups: 1- Respiron® Classic (RC) the inspirations were slow, deep and sustained for as long as possible (5 sec). 2- Respiron® Athletic1 (RA1) - the inspirations were explosive, quick and intense, raising balls by the explosive way. 6 sets of 15 repetitions with intervals of 30 to 60 seconds were performed in groups. At the end of the intervention program (second PO), the volunteers were reevaluated. The groups were homogeneous with regard to initial assessment. However on reevaluating there was a significant decline of the variable PIN (p= < 0.0001) and SMIP (p=0.0004) in RC. In the RA1 group there was a maintenance of SMIP (p=0.5076) after surgery. The use of the Respiron Athletic 1, as well as the methodology of application used, can contribute positively to preserve the inspiratory muscle endurance and improve the diaphragmatic dysfunction in postoperative period.

Keywords: bariatric surgery, incentive spirometry, respiratory muscle, physiotherapy

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2440 Qf-Pcr as a Rapid Technique for Routine Prenatal Diagnosis of Fetal Aneuploidies

Authors: S. H. Atef

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Background: The most common chromosomal abnormalities identified at birth are aneuploidies of chromosome 21, 18, 13, X and Y. Prenatal diagnosis of fetal aneuploidies is routinely done by traditional cytogenetic culture, a major drawback of this technique is the long period of time required to reach a diagnosis. In this study, we evaluated the QF-PCR as a rapid technique for prenatal diagnosis of common aneuploidies. Method:This work was carried out on Sixty amniotic fluid samples taken from patients with one or more of the following indications: Advanced maternal age (3 case), abnormal biochemical markers (6 cases), abnormal ultrasound (12 cases) or previous history of abnormal child (39 cases).Each sample was tested by QF-PCR and traditional cytogenetic. Aneuploidy screenings were performed amplifying four STRs on chromosomes 21, 18, 13, two pseudoautosomal,one X linked, as well as the AMXY and SRY; markers were distributed in two multiplex QFPCR assays (S1 and S2) in order to reduce the risk of sample mishandling. Results: All the QF-PCR results were successful, while there was two culture failures, only one of them was repeated. No discrepancy was seen between the results of both techniques. Fifty six samples showed normal patterns, three sample showed trisomy 21, successfully detected by both techniques and one sample showed normal pattern by QF-PCR but could not be compared to the cytogenetics due to culture failure, the pregnancy outcome of this case was a normal baby. Conclusion: Our study concluded that QF-PCR is a reliable technique for prenatal diagnosis of the common chromosomal aneuploidies. It has the advantages over the cytogenetic culture of being faster with the results appearing within 24-48 hours, simpler, doesn't need a highly qualified staff, less prone to failure and more cost effective.

Keywords: QF-PCR, traditional cytogenetic fetal aneuploidies, trisomy 21, prenatal diagnosis

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2439 Drought Risk Analysis Using Neural Networks for Agri-Businesses and Projects in Lejweleputswa District Municipality, South Africa

Authors: Bernard Moeketsi Hlalele

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Drought is a complicated natural phenomenon that creates significant economic, social, and environmental problems. An analysis of paleoclimatic data indicates that severe and extended droughts are inevitable part of natural climatic circle. This study characterised drought in Lejweleputswa using both Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and neural networks (NN) to quantify and predict respectively. Monthly 37-year long time series precipitation data were obtained from online NASA database. Prior to the final analysis, this dataset was checked for outliers using SPSS. Outliers were removed and replaced by Expectation Maximum algorithm from SPSS. This was followed by both homogeneity and stationarity tests to ensure non-spurious results. A non-parametric Mann Kendall's test was used to detect monotonic trends present in the dataset. Two temporal scales SPI-3 and SPI-12 corresponding to agricultural and hydrological drought events showed statistically decreasing trends with p-value = 0.0006 and 4.9 x 10⁻⁷, respectively. The study area has been plagued with severe drought events on SPI-3, while on SPI-12, it showed approximately a 20-year circle. The concluded the analyses with a seasonal analysis that showed no significant trend patterns, and as such NN was used to predict possible SPI-3 for the last season of 2018/2019 and four seasons for 2020. The predicted drought intensities ranged from mild to extreme drought events to come. It is therefore recommended that farmers, agri-business owners, and other relevant stakeholders' resort to drought resistant crops as means of adaption.

Keywords: drought, risk, neural networks, agri-businesses, project, Lejweleputswa

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2438 Animal-Assisted Therapy: A Perspective From Singapore

Authors: Julia Wong, Hua Beng Lim, Petrina Goh, Johanna Foo, Caleb Ng, Nurul ‘Aqilah Bte Mohd Taufek

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Animal-assisted therapy (AAT) utilizes human-animal interaction to achieve specific therapeutic goals, and its efficacy has been demonstrated across various settings overseas. The use of AAT in Singapore, however, is still limited. Ang Mo Kio-Thye Hua Kwan (AMKH) is one of the first community hospitals in Singapore to use AAT to complement its occupational therapy services with elderly patients. This study explored the perspectives of AMKH’s occupational therapists (OTs) in relation to AAT to understand barriers and enablers in implementing and practising AAT. We also examined how OTs at-large across practice settings perceive AAT. A mixed method design was used. 64 OTs at-large participated in on online survey, and 7 AMKH OTs were interviewed individually via Zoom. Survey results were analysed with descriptive and Mann-Whitney U tests. Interviews were thematically analysed. AMKH OTs perceived various benefits of AAT articulated in overseas studies in domains such as motivation and participation, emotional, social interaction, sensory tactile stimulation, and cognition. Interestingly, this perception was also supported by 67% of OTs who had responded to the survey, even though most of the OTs who had participated in the survey had no experience in AAT. Despite the perceived benefits of AAT, both OTs from AMKH and those at-large articulated concerns on risks pertaining to AAT (e.g., allergies, unexpected animal behaviour, infections, etc). However, AMKH OTs shared several ways to mitigate these risks, demonstrating their ability to develop a safe program. For e.g., volunteers and their dogs must meet specific recruitment criteria, stringent protocols are used to screen and match dogs with patients, and there are strict exclusion criteria for patients participating in AAT. AMKH OTs’ experience suggests that additional skills and knowledge are required to implement AAT, therefore, healthcare institutions should first consider improving their staff training and risk mitigation knowledge before implementing AAT. They can also refer to AMKH’s AAT protocols and those found in overseas studies, but institutions must adapt the protocols to fit their institutional settings and patients’ profiles.

Keywords: animal-assisted therapy, dog-assisted therapy, occupational therapy, complementary therapy

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2437 Ethical Considerations in the Execution of Post-Fuel Subsidy Removal Support Initiatives in Kwara State, Nigeria: A Focus from Islamic Principles

Authors: Muhammad Jum’at Dasuki

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This study investigates the ethical implications of post-fuel subsidy removal support initiatives in Kwara State, Nigeria, with a focus on the application of Islamic principles. The contentious issue of subsidy removal carries significant social and economic consequences, emphasizing the crucial role of ethical considerations in policy implementation. The research provides a comprehensive background on fuel subsidy removal in Nigeria and its implications. Examining post-fuel subsidy removal palliative measures in Kwara State, the study focuses on design and implementation challenges, ethical considerations, transparency, equity, and public trust. Utilizing a case study approach offers insights and best practices. The methodology includes primary sources through in-depth oral interviews and secondary sources like textbooks and journals, aiming for a holistic understanding of the ethical dimensions of support initiatives within the context of Islamic principles in Kwara State. The objective is to contribute to policy decisions and community development. The study recommends an ethically sound implementation of post-fuel subsidy removal support initiatives, emphasizing transparency, accountability, and inclusivity. It advocates for the inclusiveness of governmental palliatives, reaching both civil servants and common individuals in the state. Continuous distribution during fuel subsidy removal challenges is deemed vital. Additionally, extending free or subsidized transportation beyond higher institutions to the general populace is suggested. Consideration should also be given to reducing governmental hospital bills or providing free health services. The study underscores the importance of Islamic ethics in Nigerian governance and employs a case study approach to assess palliative measures in Kwara State, offering practical insights for policymakers and stakeholders.

Keywords: considerations, ethical, palliative, post-fuel subsidy removal

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2436 From Synthesis to Application of Photovoltaic Perovskite Nanowires

Authors: László Forró

Abstract:

The organolead halide perovskite CH3NH3PbI3 and its derivatives are known to be very efficient light harvesters revolutionizing the field of solid-state solar cells. The major research area in this field is photovoltaic device engineering although other applications are being explored, as well. Recently, we have shown that nanowires of this photovoltaic perovskite can be synthesized which in association with carbon nanostructures (carbon nanotubes and graphene) make outstanding composites with rapid and strong photo-response. They can serve as conducting electrodes, or as central components of detectors. The performance of several miniature devices based on these composite structures will be demonstrated. Our latest findings on the guided growth of perovskite nanowires by solvatomorph graphoepitaxy will be presented. This method turned out to be a fairly simple approach to overcome the spatially random surface nucleation. The process allows the synthesis of extremely long (centimeters) and thin (a few nanometers) nanowires with a morphology defined by the shape of nanostructured open fluidic channels. This low-temperature solution-growth method could open up an entirely new spectrum of architectural designs of organometallic-halide-perovskite-based heterojunctions and tandem solar cells, LEDs and other optoelectronic devices. Acknowledgment: This work is done in collaboration with Endre Horvath, Massimo Spina, Alla Arakcheeva, Balint Nafradi, Eric Bonvin1, Andrzej Sienkievicz, Zsolt Szekrenyes, Hajnalka Tohati, Katalin Kamaras, Eduard Tutis, Laszlo Mihaly and Karoly Holczer The research is supported by the ERC Advanced Grant (PICOPROP670918).

Keywords: photovoltaics, perovskite, nanowire, photodetector

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2435 Methodologies for Crack Initiation in Welded Joints Applied to Inspection Planning

Authors: Guang Zou, Kian Banisoleiman, Arturo González

Abstract:

Crack initiation and propagation threatens structural integrity of welded joints and normally inspections are assigned based on crack propagation models. However, the approach based on crack propagation models may not be applicable for some high-quality welded joints, because the initial flaws in them may be so small that it may take long time for the flaws to develop into a detectable size. This raises a concern regarding the inspection planning of high-quality welded joins, as there is no generally acceptable approach for modeling the whole fatigue process that includes the crack initiation period. In order to address the issue, this paper reviews treatment methods for crack initiation period and initial crack size in crack propagation models applied to inspection planning. Generally, there are four approaches, by: 1) Neglecting the crack initiation period and fitting a probabilistic distribution for initial crack size based on statistical data; 2) Extrapolating the crack propagation stage to a very small fictitious initial crack size, so that the whole fatigue process can be modeled by crack propagation models; 3) Assuming a fixed detectable initial crack size and fitting a probabilistic distribution for crack initiation time based on specimen tests; and, 4) Modeling the crack initiation and propagation stage separately using small crack growth theories and Paris law or similar models. The conclusion is that in view of trade-off between accuracy and computation efforts, calibration of a small fictitious initial crack size to S-N curves is the most efficient approach.

Keywords: crack initiation, fatigue reliability, inspection planning, welded joints

Procedia PDF Downloads 350
2434 Transforming Data Science Curriculum Through Design Thinking

Authors: Samar Swaid

Abstract:

Today, corporates are moving toward the adoption of Design-Thinking techniques to develop products and services, putting their consumer as the heart of the development process. One of the leading companies in Design-Thinking, IDEO (Innovation, Design, Engineering Organization), defines Design-Thinking as an approach to problem-solving that relies on a set of multi-layered skills, processes, and mindsets that help people generate novel solutions to problems. Design thinking may result in new ideas, narratives, objects or systems. It is about redesigning systems, organizations, infrastructures, processes, and solutions in an innovative fashion based on the users' feedback. Tim Brown, president and CEO of IDEO, sees design thinking as a human-centered approach that draws from the designer's toolkit to integrate people's needs, innovative technologies, and business requirements. The application of design thinking has been witnessed to be the road to developing innovative applications, interactive systems, scientific software, healthcare application, and even to utilizing Design-Thinking to re-think business operations, as in the case of Airbnb. Recently, there has been a movement to apply design thinking to machine learning and artificial intelligence to ensure creating the "wow" effect on consumers. The Association of Computing Machinery task force on Data Science program states that" Data scientists should be able to implement and understand algorithms for data collection and analysis. They should understand the time and space considerations of algorithms. They should follow good design principles developing software, understanding the importance of those principles for testability and maintainability" However, this definition hides the user behind the machine who works on data preparation, algorithm selection and model interpretation. Thus, the Data Science program includes design thinking to ensure meeting the user demands, generating more usable machine learning tools, and developing ways of framing computational thinking. Here, describe the fundamentals of Design-Thinking and teaching modules for data science programs.

Keywords: data science, design thinking, AI, currculum, transformation

Procedia PDF Downloads 75
2433 Experimental Study on Two-Step Pyrolysis of Automotive Shredder Residue

Authors: Letizia Marchetti, Federica Annunzi, Federico Fiorini, Cristiano Nicolella

Abstract:

Automotive shredder residue (ASR) is a mixture of waste that makes up 20-25% of end-of-life vehicles. For many years, ASR was commonly disposed of in landfills or incinerated, causing serious environmental problems. Nowadays, thermochemical treatments are a promising alternative, although the heterogeneity of ASR still poses some challenges. One of the emerging thermochemical treatments for ASR is pyrolysis, which promotes the decomposition of long polymeric chains by providing heat in the absence of an oxidizing agent. In this way, pyrolysis promotes the conversion of ASR into solid, liquid, and gaseous phases. This work aims to improve the performance of a two-step pyrolysis process. After the characterization of the analysed ASR, the focus is on determining the effects of residence time on product yields and gas composition. A batch experimental setup that reproduces the entire process was used. The setup consists of three sections: the pyrolysis section (made of two reactors), the separation section, and the analysis section. Two different residence times were investigated to find suitable conditions for the first sample of ASR. These first tests showed that the products obtained were more sensitive to residence time in the second reactor. Indeed, slightly increasing residence time in the second reactor managed to raise the yield of gas and carbon residue and decrease the yield of liquid fraction. Then, to test the versatility of the setup, the same conditions were applied to a different sample of ASR coming from a different chemical plant. The comparison between the two ASR samples shows that similar product yields and compositions are obtained using the same setup.

Keywords: automotive shredder residue, experimental tests, heterogeneity, product yields, two-step pyrolysis

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2432 Rail Corridors between Minimal Use of Train and Unsystematic Tightening of Population: A Methodological Essay

Authors: A. Benaiche

Abstract:

In the current situation, the automobile has become the main means of locomotion. It allows traveling long distances, encouraging urban sprawl. To counteract this trend, the train is often proposed as an alternative to the car. Simultaneously, the favoring of urban development around public transport nodes such as railway stations is one of the main issues of the coordination between urban planning and transportation and the keystone of the sustainable urban development implementation. In this context, this paper focuses on the study of the spatial structuring dynamics around the railway. Specifically, it is a question of studying the demographic dynamics in rail corridors of Nantes, Angers and Le Mans (Western France) basing on the radiation of railway stations. Consequently, the methodology is concentrated on the knowledge of demographic weight and gains of these corridors, the index of urban intensity and the mobility behaviors (workers’ travels, scholars' travels, modal practices of travels). The perimeter considered to define the rail corridors includes the communes of urban area which have a railway station and communes with an access time to the railway station is less than fifteen minutes by car (time specified by the Regional Transport Scheme of Travelers). The main tools used are the statistical data from the census of population, the basis of detailed tables and databases on mobility flows. The study reveals that the population is not tightened along rail corridors and train use is minimal despite the presence of a nearby railway station. These results lead to propose guidelines to make the train, a real vector of mobility across the rail corridors.

Keywords: coordination between urban planning and transportation, rail corridors, railway stations, travels

Procedia PDF Downloads 240
2431 Addressing Cultural Discrimination in Research Design: The Responsibilities of Ethics Committees

Authors: Elspeth McInnes

Abstract:

Research design is central to ethical research. Discriminatory research design is a key risk for researchers examining diverse cultural groups without conscious commitment to anti-discrimination values or knowledge of their culture. Culturally discriminatory research design is defined here as research proceeding from negative assumptions about people on the basis of race, colour, ethnicity, nationality or religion. Such discrimination can be direct or indirect. Direct discrimination is the uncritical mobilization of dominant group negative stereotypes of cultural minorities. Indirect discrimination is the examination of policies or programs grounded in dominant culture negative stereotypes that have been uncritically accepted by the researchers. This paper draws on anonymized elements of planned research projects and considers both direct and indirect cultural discrimination in research design and the responsibilities of ethics committees. Human research ethics committees provide a point of scrutiny with responsibility to alert researchers to risks of basing research on negative cultural stereotypes, as well as protecting participants from being subjected to negative discourses about them. This issue has become an increasing concern in a globalizing world of human displacement and migration creating a rise in the presence of minority cultures in host countries. As a nation established through colonization and immigration Australia has a long history of negative cultural stereotypes of Indigenous Australians as well as a legacy of the White Australia policy, which still echoes in attitudes to each wave of non-European immigration. The task of eliminating cultural discrimination in research design is vital to sustaining research integrity and ensuring that research is not used to reinforce or justify cultural discrimination.

Keywords: cultural discrimination, cultural stereotypes, participant risk, research design

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2430 Evaluation of Key Performance Indicators as Determinants of Dividend Paid on Ordinary Shares in Nigeria Banking Sector

Authors: Oliver Ikechukwu Inyiama, Boniface Uche Ugwuanyi

Abstract:

The aim of the research is to evaluate the key financial performance indicators that help both managers and their shareholders of Nigerian Banks to determine the appropriate dividend payout to their ordinary shareholders in an accounting year. Profitability, total asset, and earnings of commercial banks were selected as key performance indicators in Nigeria Banking Sector. They represent the independent variables of the study while dividend per share is the proxy for the dividend paid on ordinary shares which represent the dependent variable. The effect of profitability, total asset and earnings on dividend per share were evaluated through the ordinary least square method of multiple regression analysis. Test for normality of frequency distribution was conducted through descriptive statistics such as Jacque Bera Statistic, skewness and kurtosis. Rate of dividend payout was subsequently applied as an alternate dependent variable to test for robustness of the earlier results. The 64% adjusted R-squared of the pooled data indicates that profitability, total asset, and earnings explain the variation in dividend per share during the period under research while the remaining 36% variation in dividend per share could be explained by changes in other variables not captured by this study as well as the error term. The study concentrated on four leading Nigeria Commercial Banks namely; First Bank of Nigeria Plc, GTBank Plc, United Bank for Africa Plc and Zenith International Bank Plc. Dividend per share was found to be positively affected by total assets and earnings of the commercial banks. However, profitability which was proxied by profit after tax had a negative effect on dividend per share. The implication of the findings is that commercial banks in Nigeria pay more dividend when they are having a dwindling fortune in order to retain the confidence of the shareholders provided their gross earnings and size is on the increase. Therefore, the management and board of directors of Nigeria commercial banks should apply decent marketing strategies to enhance earnings through investment in profitable ventures for an improved dividend payout rate.

Keywords: assets, banks, indicators, performance, profitability, shares

Procedia PDF Downloads 158
2429 Influence of the Cooking Technique on the Iodine Content of Frozen Hake

Authors: F. Deng, R. Sanchez, A. Beltran, S. Maestre

Abstract:

The high nutritional value associated with seafood is related to the presence of essential trace elements. Moreover, seafood is considered an important source of energy, proteins, and long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids. Generally, seafood is consumed cooked. Consequently, the nutritional value could be degraded. Seafood, such as fish, shellfish, and seaweed, could be considered as one of the main iodine sources. The deficient or excessive consumption of iodine could cause dysfunction and pathologies related to the thyroid gland. The main objective of this work is to evaluated iodine stability in hake (Merluccius) undergone different culinary techniques. The culinary process considered were: boiling, steaming, microwave cooking, baking, cooking en papillote (twisted cover with the shape of a sweet wrapper) and coating with a batter of flour and deep-frying. The determination of iodine was carried by Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS). Regarding sample handling strategies, liquid-liquid extraction has demonstrated to be a powerful pre-concentration and clean-up approach for trace metal analysis by ICP techniques. Extraction with tetramethylammonium hydroxide (TMAH reagent) was used as a sample preparation method in this work. Based on the results, it can be concluded that the stability of iodine was degraded with the cooking processes. The major degradation was observed for the boiling and microwave cooking processes. The content of iodine in hake decreased up to 60% and 52%, respectively. However, if the boiling cooking liquid is preserved, this loss that has been generated during cooking is reduced. Only when the fish was cooked by following the cooking en papillote process the iodine content was preserved.

Keywords: cooking process, ICP-MS, iodine, hake

Procedia PDF Downloads 136
2428 A Study on the Problems of Sports Commitment and Athlete Satisfaction of Oromia League Football Clubs in Case of West, East and Horro Guduru Wollega Zones, Ethiopia

Authors: Biruk Hundito Lodebo

Abstract:

The main purpose of this study was to investigate the problems of sports commitment and athlete satisfaction of Oromia league football clubs in the West, East and Horro Guduru wollega zones. The descriptive survey method was designed and approached as a quantitative method. The data was collected by questionnaires. The research data was collected from sports commitment and athlete satisfaction variables. The target population of this study was (3x30=90) and the researcher selected by using purposive sampling techniques. The data were analysed by SPSS Software (Version 20). Such as mean standard deviation, one-way ANOVA and correlational analysis. The level of significance is 0.05 alpha level. The researchers' hypothesis of this study was: (1) There is no significant difference between sports commitments and player satisfaction indices in all selected Oromia league football wollega zones. (2)There is no significant difference between sports commitments and player satisfaction indices in all selected Oromia league football wollega zones.(3)There is no correlation between the variables of sports commitments and player satisfaction indices in all selected Oromia league football wollega zones. Finally, the study findings indicated that: (a) There is no significant difference between sports commitment and athlete satisfaction of Oromia league football clubs. (b) There is no significant difference between player age and sports commitment in Oromia league football clubs in the West, East and Horro Guduru wollega zones. (c) There is no significant difference between player age and athlete satisfaction in Oromia league football clubs in the West, East and Horro Guduru wollege zones. Based on the research findings the following recommendations were forwarded: The club management and players should be made a positive linkage and improvement between sports commitments and player satisfaction, All clubs management staff and coaching staff should promote Sports commitment and player satisfaction. Workshops and short-term training can be held for all of sports management staff and players.

Keywords: sports commetmnet, Athet satisfaction, football, Oromia league

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2427 Design and Evaluation of a Fully-Automated Fluidized Bed Dryer for Complete Drying of Paddy

Authors: R. J. Pontawe, R. C. Martinez, N. T. Asuncion, R. V. Villacorte

Abstract:

Drying of high moisture paddy remains a major problem in the Philippines, especially during inclement weather condition. To alleviate the problem, mechanical dryers were used like a flat bed and recirculating batch-type dryers. However, drying to 14% (wet basis) final moisture content is long which takes 10-12 hours and tedious which is not the ideal for handling high moisture paddy. Fully-automated pilot-scale fluidized bed drying system with 500 kilograms per hour capacity was evaluated using a high moisture paddy. The developed fluidized bed dryer was evaluated using four drying temperatures and two variations in fluidization time at a constant airflow, static pressure and tempering period. Complete drying of paddy with ≥28% (w.b.) initial MC was attained after 2 passes of fluidized-bed drying at 2 minutes exposure to 70 °C drying temperature and 4.9 m/s superficial air velocity, followed by 60 min ambient air tempering period (30 min without ventilation and 30 min with air ventilation) for a total drying time of 2.07 h. Around 82% from normal mechanical drying time was saved at 70 °C drying temperature. The drying cost was calculated to be P0.63 per kilogram of wet paddy. Specific heat energy consumption was only 2.84 MJ/kg of water removed. The Head Rice Yield recovery of the dried paddy passed the Philippine Agricultural Engineering Standards. Sensory evaluation showed that the color and taste of the samples dried in the fluidized bed dryer were comparable to air dried paddy. The optimum drying parameters of using fluidized bed dryer is 70 oC drying temperature at 2 min fluidization time, 4.9 m/s superficial air velocity, 10.16 cm grain depth and 60 min ambient air tempering period.

Keywords: drying, fluidized bed dryer, head rice yield, paddy

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2426 Mapping the Core Processes and Identifying Actors along with Their Roles, Functions and Linkages in Trout Value Chain in Kashmir, India

Authors: Stanzin Gawa, Nalini Ranjan Kumar, Gohar Bilal Wani, Vinay Maruti Hatte, A. Vinay

Abstract:

Rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and Brown trout (Salmo trutta fario) are the two species of trout which were once introduced by British in waters of Kashmir has well adapted to favorable climatic conditions. Cold water fisheries are one of the emerging sectors in Kashmir valley and trout holds an important place Jammu and Kashmir fisheries. Realizing the immense potential of trout culture in Kashmir region, the state fisheries department started privatizing trout culture under the centrally funded scheme of RKVY in which they provide 80 percent subsidy for raceway construction and supply of feed and seed for the first year since 2009-10 and at present there are 362 private trout farms. To cater the growing demand for trout in the valley, it is important to understand the bottlenecks faced in the propagation of trout culture. Value chain analysis provides a generic framework to understand the various activities and processes, mapping and studying linkages is first step that needs to be done in any value chain analysis. In Kashmir, it is found that trout hatcheries play a crucial role in insuring the continuous supply of trout seed in valley. Feed is most limiting factor in trout culture and the farmer has to incur high cost in payment and in the transportation of feed from the feed mill to farm. Lack of aqua clinic in the Kashmir valley needs to be addressed. Brood stock maintenance, breeding and seed production, technical assistance to private farmer, extension services have to be strengthened and there is need to development healthier environment for new entrepreneurs. It was found that trout farmers do not avail credit facility as there is no well define credit scheme for fisheries in the state. The study showed weak institutional linkages. Research and development should focus more on applied science rather than basic science.

Keywords: trout, Kashmir, value chain, linkages, culture

Procedia PDF Downloads 398
2425 Performance Evaluation of Production Schedules Based on Process Mining

Authors: Kwan Hee Han

Abstract:

External environment of enterprise is rapidly changing majorly by global competition, cost reduction pressures, and new technology. In these situations, production scheduling function plays a critical role to meet customer requirements and to attain the goal of operational efficiency. It deals with short-term decision making in the production process of the whole supply chain. The major task of production scheduling is to seek a balance between customer orders and limited resources. In manufacturing companies, this task is so difficult because it should efficiently utilize resource capacity under the careful consideration of many interacting constraints. At present, many computerized software solutions have been utilized in many enterprises to generate a realistic production schedule to overcome the complexity of schedule generation. However, most production scheduling systems do not provide sufficient information about the validity of the generated schedule except limited statistics. Process mining only recently emerged as a sub-discipline of both data mining and business process management. Process mining techniques enable the useful analysis of a wide variety of processes such as process discovery, conformance checking, and bottleneck analysis. In this study, the performance of generated production schedule is evaluated by mining event log data of production scheduling software system by using the process mining techniques since every software system generates event logs for the further use such as security investigation, auditing and error bugging. An application of process mining approach is proposed for the validation of the goodness of production schedule generated by scheduling software systems in this study. By using process mining techniques, major evaluation criteria such as utilization of workstation, existence of bottleneck workstations, critical process route patterns, and work load balance of each machine over time are measured, and finally, the goodness of production schedule is evaluated. By using the proposed process mining approach for evaluating the performance of generated production schedule, the quality of production schedule of manufacturing enterprises can be improved.

Keywords: data mining, event log, process mining, production scheduling

Procedia PDF Downloads 274
2424 From Text to Data: Sentiment Analysis of Presidential Election Political Forums

Authors: Sergio V Davalos, Alison L. Watkins

Abstract:

User generated content (UGC) such as website post has data associated with it: time of the post, gender, location, type of device, and number of words. The text entered in user generated content (UGC) can provide a valuable dimension for analysis. In this research, each user post is treated as a collection of terms (words). In addition to the number of words per post, the frequency of each term is determined by post and by the sum of occurrences in all posts. This research focuses on one specific aspect of UGC: sentiment. Sentiment analysis (SA) was applied to the content (user posts) of two sets of political forums related to the US presidential elections for 2012 and 2016. Sentiment analysis results in deriving data from the text. This enables the subsequent application of data analytic methods. The SASA (SAIL/SAI Sentiment Analyzer) model was used for sentiment analysis. The application of SASA resulted with a sentiment score for each post. Based on the sentiment scores for the posts there are significant differences between the content and sentiment of the two sets for the 2012 and 2016 presidential election forums. In the 2012 forums, 38% of the forums started with positive sentiment and 16% with negative sentiment. In the 2016 forums, 29% started with positive sentiment and 15% with negative sentiment. There also were changes in sentiment over time. For both elections as the election got closer, the cumulative sentiment score became negative. The candidate who won each election was in the more posts than the losing candidates. In the case of Trump, there were more negative posts than Clinton’s highest number of posts which were positive. KNIME topic modeling was used to derive topics from the posts. There were also changes in topics and keyword emphasis over time. Initially, the political parties were the most referenced and as the election got closer the emphasis changed to the candidates. The performance of the SASA method proved to predict sentiment better than four other methods in Sentibench. The research resulted in deriving sentiment data from text. In combination with other data, the sentiment data provided insight and discovery about user sentiment in the US presidential elections for 2012 and 2016.

Keywords: sentiment analysis, text mining, user generated content, US presidential elections

Procedia PDF Downloads 183